Week 11 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks:
Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,600 FD)
Lamar Jackson looks unstoppable right now. The dual threat QB has the safest NFL DFS floor on the slate. He faces the 24th ranked defense (against the QB) in what should be a high scoring game. He is averaging 98 yards rushing in his last four games. He has ran for five touchdowns in the same time frame. Those are stud RB numbers. Not only is he running, he is also throwing the ball 15-20 times per game. The Houston Texans are ranked 31st against the pass. This all adds up to Jackson being another fantastic spend up at quarterback this week. Faders are going to not have a good time.
Stud Pivots: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott
I really want to pay up at QB this week.
Value QB: Josh Allen ($7,800 FD)
Josh Allen has a history of owning the Dolphins. He too is a dual threat QB going against a poor defense in Miami. In the past two games he has run for three touchdowns and thrown for 426 yards. I like the upside he again presents in NFL DFS this week. Look for him to get another 60 yards on the ground, 200+ through the air and hit John Brown for a touchdown, or two.
Value QB pivot: Derek Carr
Running Backs
Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 FD)
Clear number one guy. Just get him in your lineup or regret it immediately at 1:01 PM EST on 11/17.
Stud Pivots: Ezekiel Elliott
Mid RB: Josh Jacobs ($8,000 FD)
The Bengals are the easiest team to run on in the NFL. They have given up a league worst 173 yards per game. Wow. They are also tied for the second most touchdowns given up on the season with 12. Josh Jacobs is a dual threat RB who is playing the bell cow role for Oakland. In three of his last five games he has gone over 100 yards. He has five touchdowns in the same time frame. He carries a questionable tag by his name right now but he is almost certain to play. If he plays the full 60 minutes he gets in the end zone at least once and has another 100 yards on the ground.
Pivots: Le’Veon Bell
Value RB Brian Hill ($5,900)
We are going to keep targeting the Panthers rush defense in NFL DFS. Last week they gave up three touchdowns to Aaron Jones, the week before two to Derick Henry and the week before that three to Tevin Coleman. In total, they have given up 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. That is five more than the next worst team! Brain Hill is going to step in for the injured Devonte Freeman and get around 20 touches and a couple targets through the air. Last week he caught one in the end zone and this week he is going to run one.
I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.
Wide Receiver
Stud WR: Michael Thomas ($8,700 FD)
If you can find a way to afford him, he is your number one guy. Every week Thomas keeps producing. He has double digit targets in every game except two this year. He has yet to have a game without double digit FD points and it is Week 11. Tampa is one of the three best teams to target with wide receivers (Arizona and Oakland are the other two). They have given up the third most touchdowns through the air (22) and are allowing 298 yards per game. Thomas is a fail proof WR1 this week.
Stud Pivots: Julian Edelman, Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper
Mid WR: DJ Moore ($6,000 FD)
The Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. The Falcons were able to somehow keep the Saints out of the end zone last week which is not what NFL DFS players were expecting. It would appear the Falcons made some improvements during their bye week, but I am not buying it. They just do not have the personel to turn the corner so quick. I am chalking up that Saints loss to “not respecting the opponent” in a game the Falcons were most likely treating like a Super Bowl against their rivals. The Dirty Birds have still give up 19 receiving TD’s this season, and that is including a bye week and last Sunday’s miracle. DJ Moore has averaged 10 targets a game the last month. In that time span he has over 12 FD points in every game except one. This is all without a single touchdown. He has as good of a chance as he is going to get this season to snap the no TD streak. I love him at the price.
Mid WR Pivots in Order: John Brown, Jamison Crowder, Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Williams, Zach Pascal
Value WR: Calvin Ridley ($5,500 FD)
He is just one of those guys who is constantly underpriced for his ceiling. There is no Austin Hooper and no Devonte Freeman this week which means even more opportunity than usual for Ridley.
Value Pivot: Deebo Samuel ($5,600 FD) He will get a huge boost if Emmanuel Sanders misses, I am not interested in him if Sanders plays.
Value Pivot: Phillip Dorsett ($5,300 FD) An uber sneaky WR Punt this week when everyone is focused on Sanu. Dorsett has a nice connection with Brady and is way underpriced going against the 25th worst NFL DFS pass defense.
Tight End
Ryan Dwelley ($4,900 FD)
George Kittle is out and his backup Ryan Dwelley gets the best matchup on the board for one of the cheapest prices. If you are new here, my rule is pretty simple, target the Arizona Cardinals with tight ends. They are ranked 32nd in NFL DFS and have given up a touchdown virtually every week to the position. The 49ers are also likely without Emmanuel Sanders opening up even more opportunity for Dwelley to match or exceed his season best seven targets last game.
Tight End Pivots: Mark Andrews, Jared Cook, Ryan Griffin
Defense (order updated)
- 49ers
- Patriots
- Bills
- Oakland
- Jets
I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!
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