Tag:

Zion Williamson

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, February 25

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to Thursday’s NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays & slate strategy for this six-game NBA slate!

Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

In looking at this six-game NBA DFS slate on Thursday, the good news is that most of the big injury news we need is in the earlier set of games as have to keep an eye on the status of Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, and Elfrid Payton. This slate is LOADED with stars and so getting the value to plug in those ceiling plays is going to be a critical component to how we attack tonight’s action.

If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know on these smaller slates, I like to try and anchor to a game environment that I think has GPP winning upside and one that I think is mis-priced. We want star power, high totals and fast pace and while you may think I am obligated to go Brooklyn and Orlando tonight – there is a game I like far more – the late-night hammer of the Bucks and Pelicans.

The Buck Stops Here

The Milwaukee and New Orleans game checks off all the boxes I look for when building an NBA DFS GPP stack – we have a high total of 240+, a game with one of the fastest projected paces on the slate and recent trends that give us reason to exploit it.

Over the last 10 games, both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive team rating, while the Bucks continue to play at a top 5 pace in the NBA and New Orleans on the other hand has been the second-worst defensive team in the Association during that stretch.

We have talked about this now for weeks, but we can attack the Pelicans in a variety of ways – first and foremost, with the guards. No team in the NBA is giving up more three’s (17/game) than New Orleans the last 10 games while also giving up the most assists per game and allowing opponents to shoot at a 50.4% clip.

You do not have to look back far to see what this means for the opposition – just look at last night against the Pistons where the Pelicans gave up 80 DK points to the vaunted Detroit backcourt of Dennis Smith Jr., Saben Lee and Svi Mykhaliuk. When DSJ is locking in 32 fantasy points and Saben Lee gets you 28 – you know this is a trend we can continue to attack with a similar value guard like DJ Augustin ($4.1K).

It has not just been guards that have hit ceiling – the opposing big men have as well and this was a spot we were all over yesterday with Mason Plumlee who returned the favor with a 49 DK point evening and a near triple-double. This week alone we have seen opposing big men like Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams combine for nearly 70 DK points in this same spot while DeAndre Ayton dropped 40+ of his own. This could mean a ceiling performance for someone like Brook Lopez ($4.3K) and/or Bobby Portis ($4.9K).

Feels like a may have buried the lede here huh?

You are likely not starting this game stack with DJA and BroLo – so let’s jump to why you are here – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K). Giannis gets a match-up with the 2nd worst defense in the NBA the last 10 games, one he dropped 68 DK points against earlier this year in a game Jrue Holiday actually played – and well, this should not need much convincing.

Khris Middleton ($8.2K) is likely the toughest decision point from Milwaukee as we make our DFS lineups tonight. Giannis is the easy pay up and the fringe value plays like DJA or Donte DiVincenzo ($5K) are cheap ways to get exposure to their backcourt – the question is, is Middleton too pricey or not priced high enough?

Despite Jrue Holiday being sidelined, Middleton has been a horrendous DFS asset in recent games, going under 40 DK points in 7 of the last 10 games. The minutes have been there, the volume has been there but the efficiency has simply not been.

Now the flip side, there have been two games in the last 10 where Middleton has hit for 60+ DK points – once against Denver and once against Sacramento, and in both games, he flashed incredible efficiency from the floor – shooting 59% and 56% in those games.

So the path for Middleton seems simple – if he is hitting shots, he can be a slate breaker (no sh*t Sherlock – welcome to every NBA player). However, remember the match-up – the Pelicans are allowing teams to shoot the ball at a nearly 51% rate the last 10 games which ranks as the 4th worst mark in basketball. Do you know who is right above them? The same Sacramento Kings team that Middleton just dropped a 60 burger against.

Middleton to me is where this game goes from a cash game staple you pick pieces from, to a full on GPP game stack. If you think Middleton is a floor play, the safer route is to take Giannis and Augustin and stop there but as we saw against both the Kings and Nuggets, there is a path where Giannis hits his ceiling alongside Middleton if his shot is falling!

Run it Back

Now if we are taking multiple Bucks pieces, especially Middleton, assuming their offensive onslaught continues – it only makes sense to run it back with New Orleans who would need to keep this game close to get full run from the Milwaukee side.

The nice part about New Orleans is they run essentially a 6 man rotation with their starting five and Josh Hart ($5K) so you know where the minutes and production will come from.

The New Orleans side of this game is what really intrigues me about a game stack because the pricing on the entire Pelicans team is reasonable and fits easily around a Giannis-led Bucks stack.

Zion Williamson ($8.6K) is the only Pelicans player sitting over $8K on DraftKings tonight, while we can get mid-range value with 30+ minute players in Steven Adams, Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe who all sit around $5K.

If you are stacking Giannis, Middleton and DJA on the other side of this game it leaves you with nearly $5.5K per player for the rest of your build – so you start to see where the Pelicans pricing becomes an ideal run back fit.

In the earlier season meeting between these two teams, the Pelicans fantasy attack was largely balanced as you can see here via Statmuse.

That balanced production is great for the mid-range plays – but becomes an issue for ceiling if we are paying the premium for Zion and/or Brandon Ingram ($7.9K).

Honestly, I think Zion is overpriced and I also think he will be popular here tonight. At $8.6K he needs to go for 50+ DK points to hit 6x ceiling – a mark he has done just once in the last 10 games.

Ingram feels more correctly priced, as he would need 47 DK points to hit 6x value, a mark he has hit or exceeded in 4 of the last 10 games. The one “issue’ is I worry about the wing defense of Middleton and Giannis on him, but if there is one Pelicans pay up I want – I lean towards BI.

The other option would be to go more balanced with the Pelicans – ignore the Zion/BI pieces and instead live in the mid range. Stack up Lonzo Ball ($6.3K) alongside two players like Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe – who both share positive correlation metrics with Lonzo this season.

If you are going to play someone like Steven Adams ($5.1K) this is where you need to think through correlations and his impact on others. How does Adams hit his ceiling as he did last night against Detroit with 44 DK points? He does so by pulling down 15 rebounds – meaning guys like Zion (only 6 last night) see more floor than a ceiling. This is the kind of logic you need to think through when stacking the Pelicans and how you can get leverage.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Stepping back and looking at this slate – it is LOADED with stars and so anchoring to one of them is critical but more than anything, anchroing to a game matters.

Think back to last night as an example – chalk like Jayson Tatum busts because the Celtics get blown out or a star like LeBron James gets you just 30 DK points because he was on the bench in a blowout the entire fourth quarter.

Planting your flags on a game environment is just as important as which star you anchor to and so tonight with an eye on Giannis as my premier pay up, I want to find a path to 4 quarters of ceiling and a run back in a Pelicans game stack that could be a DFS goldmine!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

Collector’s Corner: 2018-19 NBA Rookie Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s Collector’s Corner takes a look at what 2018 NBA rookie trading cards – beyond Luka and Trae – could have some lasting value down the road.

The meteoric rise of 2019-20 NBA trading card products because of the historically talented rookie class is well known – with generational superstars like Rookie of the Year Ja Morant and 20-year-old sensation Zion Williamson already doing special things on the court, and names like Tyler Herro, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Clarke and P.J. Washington (to name just a few) flashing some transcendent ability on the hardwood. But the 2018-19 rookie crop has some real gems beyond Luka Doncic – possibly the best young player in the league since LeBron James – and Trae Young, a sharpshooting combo guard sniper who can score on a level with Stephon Curry and some of the league’s best.

Doncic and Young cards make buying 2018-19 NBA products an expensive endeavor and finding their rookie trading cards at affordable prices is already pretty difficult. But what about some of the other players from that class who’ve yet to see their games fully emerge into the consciousness of collectors? In this edition of Collector’s Corner, we’ll give you some players from the 2018-19 draft class who make for excellent investments as they prepare to take the next step in the NBA showcase.

Note: I’ll continue to use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Trading Cards – Cash Buys (other than Luka and Trae)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

A do-it-all guard with the size to create constant mismatches and handle the pick-and-roll with the best of them, SGA was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade and is probably the player most likely to join Luka and Trae in the stratosphere of NBA superstardom. The Thunder are just 6-7 to start the season but have a bright future – thanks to SGA and a new head coach (Mark Daigneault) who’s honest about the mistakes he sees his players make, and how they need to improve.

You can pick up some of SGA’s rookie trading cards (like this 2018-19 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #162) for a fraction of what Luka and Trae cost. He’s not guaranteed to reach their level right away, but he may be a better all-around player than Young because of his size and should be money in the bank a couple years down the road.

DeAndre Ayton, PHO

Ayton still need to learn to stop fouling people, but it’s obvious he can manhandle dudes in the post – like he did up-and-comer Christian Wood on Wednesday night in Houston. He’s a beast at both ends of the floor, and the Suns are building a supporting cast that can take some of the pressure off the two-headed Ayton-Booker monster that still fared pretty well in 2019-20.

I’ve talked about how much I like Ayton before – he’s the centerpiece of my 2018-19 basketball collection thus far – but the big man just keeps drawing positive reviews and is in a great spot to return major trading card value in a few years. If you think SGA is still pretty cheap, you should see what the same card (2018-19 Optic base) is selling for. A PSA 9 at $25 could easily return a 400% profit in two or three seasons.

Trading Cards – GPP Buys

Michael Porter, Jr., DEN

If you’re a DFS junkie and you’ve seen Porter Jr. get into a groove on the court and smash value, you probably know how excellent an investment in his rookie trading cards can be. But he’s blocked a bit from producing at an elite level at the moment and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not he can do enough to make the Nuggets a contender in 2020-21 – so you can still find some good deals on his rookies.

Even when he was drafted, there were concerns about how many minutes Porter would be playing in the NBA; he played just 53 minutes of his freshman season in college as a result of back surgery, and a hip issue in the leadup to the draft added more concern about his body. MPJ has now been out since Dec. 29 after testing positive for COVID-19, but he’s nearing a return and was averaging nearly 20 points, seven rebounds, one steal and 1.5 blocks prior to his quarantine period.

Jaren Jackson, Jr., MEM

We don’t have any recent on-court performance to look at with Triple-J, but he looked like a star in three bubble games with averages of 25.3 points, 3.3 triples and 1.7 blocks, and he reportedly grew a couple inches (I know, I know) since the last time he’s taken the court – if Dillon Brooks is to be believed. Still – it’s not unrealistic that the 6-11 (pre-COVID-19) Memphis big man has crested the 7-foot mark as he recovers from meniscus surgery.

JJJ should make for a wonderful complement to the scoring and distribution of Ja Morant, and he’s a floor-stretching 4-slash-5 who can knock down three-pointers, crash the boards and send back that weak stuff like a two-way unicorn. His high-level trading cards could definitely be worth the investment, especially if you can find some raw examples that look like they could 10.

Bonus GPP Buys: Collin Sexton, CLE, Marvin Bagley, SAC and Kevin Huerter, ATL

Trading Cards – Punt Plays

Mikal Bridges, PHO

When he was drafted, Bridges drew comparisons to Klay Thompson, and he’s been a solid producer on the new-look Suns. His stuff is cheap, and even the rookie trading cards with parallels within reach. There’s a lot of good young players in Phoenix, and who stays and who goes in the next few years due to salary cap decisions makes the whole situation a bit uncertain, but he’s a talented player with monster upside.

Mo Bamba, ORL

I’m very much on the fence about Mo Bamba, and as the NYT pointed out when he was drafted – it’s hard to find “two people to agree on what Bamba’s ceiling is, or how likely he is to reach it.” That NYT goes on to talk about how Bamba broke the NBA combine record for wingspan measurement – reaching an absurd 7 feet 10 inches – and how his standing reach was a full three inches taller than any player measured at the combine. You don’t have to buy with much trepidation – because his stuff is super cheap.

Wendell Carter, Jr., CHI

The Former No. 7 draftee from Duke had expectations through the roof, and has been a fantasy bust so far. But while he’s been lacking defensively and took a step back in 2019, new Bulls HC Billy Donovan has the team headed in the right direction. Carter, Jr. could have a good season coming and might be investing in. His Silver Prizm rookie card (even in a PSA 10) can be had for relative peanuts.

Bonus Punts: Donte DiVincenzo, MIL and Lonnie Walker IV, SA

3 years ago 0 comment

Collector’s Corner: NBA 2020-21 Trading Cards – Part 2

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Part 2 of the Collector’s Corner: NBA 2020-21 Preview takes a look at some of the NBA trading cards — past and present — you should be collecting.

We’re about a week into the 2020-21 NBA season, and it’s a good time to preview some of the possible breakouts – or just some big jumps from guys we already know about – in the trading cards market this year.

In this preview (Part 1 was a product review), we’ll look at some of players to target as they take the stage on the most marketable of courts in the NBA. I’ve included some links to eBay sales of the players I’m covering.

Trading Cards of Retired/HOF Legends

Tim Duncan – I heard there’s a debate raging online about whether Tim Duncan was a better player than Anthony Davis. While the book isn’t closed on AD, Duncan is in my Top 10 all-time NBA, and he might be Top 6 or 7, if we really want to get into the level of talent he faced and how competitive those Spurs teams were in the playoffs. Duncan’s trading cards are still undervalued. His Topps and Fleer rookies are way too cheap considering his significant NBA HOF legacy.

Shaquille O’Neal – Shaq rookies, plentiful because they were produced in the early-to-mid 1990s, are easy to find sharp and some are worth buying raw to get graded. It’s a long wait right now at PSA, but Shaq remains in the spotlight as a pop icon and entertaining NBA analyst. Grabbing his cards won’t set you back a ton and locating his more valuable inserts from that era could be especially lucrative. I’ve linked to the most recent sold prices, but do a search for those same cards currently and if you see a deal.

Shaq’s Stadium Club rookies can be had for a few bucks each raw, and PSA 10s can be had for around $100 or so.

Trading Cards of Veterans

Kevin Durant – Durant won consecutive Finals MVPs before the devastating Achilles rupture in the 2019 NBA Finals, and he’s been off the radar for over a year. He’s got the length and sharpshooting ability to rebound well and he’s great buy right now as he tries to bring a title to Brooklyn.

Devin Booker/DeAndre Ayton – The addition of Chris Paul should improve the prospects of all the Suns players, from their veteran guards to third-year center Ayton. These are talented players who should see a bump in their production and trading card value.

More Veterans to Buy Low: Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis

These established players could have big years in 2020-21 and make their mark once again in the playoffs, when we can see huge jumps in prices after stellar performances.

Some Veterans to Sell: Jamal Murray, Anthony Davis, Aaron Gordon, Jimmy Butler, Hassan Whiteside

These guys see spikes in popularity after big games, but I’m not bullish on the long-term value of their cards – be it health, attitude, too much hype or just a limit on their popularity. Another get in, get out scenario where you can buy low and sell after a monster stat line or two.

More Developing Players

If we look at investing in developing NBA prospects like cash game vs. GPP, it might help in building realistic expectations and projections. GPP-investments can be the players who aren’t highly touted (represent more risky, long-term investments) but can be bought cheaply. Cash game types include established (or simply heavily hyped) players like Ja Morant, Rui Hachimura and Kevin Porter Jr.

Trading Card Cash buys

Jayson Tatum – It may seem weird to classify him as a “developing” player, but he apparently grew two more inches in the past summer – a little joke that got a bit out of hand once it hit the rumor mill. Seriously, though – Tatum may have grown a couple inches (from 6’8” to 6’10”) since he was first drafted in 2017, but the main thing that’s grown tremendously in that time is his game. He’s a more consistent shooter and much better defender, and his cards are still more affordable than some of the other superstars in the league.

Zion Williamson & Ja Morant – Zion still has some defensive issues handling true bigs in the post, but he’s an offensive superstar and there’s no telling the kind of stat lines he’ll post when his shot improves a bit. There’s not TONS of room for short term turnaround value, but like Amazon stock, he’s a grower. As for Ja – the ankle sprain appears to be a 3-5 week thing, so if you see his process drop in the coming weeks, pick up his stuff. You won’t regret it once he hits the floor again.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – The guy fills it up – a true talent with all the right tools to be a perennial All-Star, and he has solid work ethic and attitude. His rookie cards are still very affordable. His 2018 Silver Prizm rookie in a Gem Mint PSA 10 is selling for about $1,000 to $1,300, but you can buy the card raw for about $200-$300.

P.J. Washington – He’s seen increased playing time in the first three games of the new season, and he’s already got one double-double. His stuff is still pretty cheap and we could see a big jump soon.

Tyler Herro – He’s still a streaky performer who offers very little in the way of ancillary stats when the shots aren’t going down, but his cards are still selling well and he’s still “a bucket” – especially in crunch time. I doubt his trajectory will be one of steady growth – more a few jumps where you want to get in and get out – and do it all over again once it’s playoff time.

R.J. Barrett – Barrett is a talented offensive player who may have gone No. 1 in the 2020 draft, but his future is mired in New York with James Dolan’s Knicks for the time being. The good thing? Tom Thibodeau runs short rotations, so he’ll see plenty of court minutes to help fill up the scoring column this season.

R.J. and Rui could make some big steps forward in the 2020-21 season. Pictured here are their 2019-20 Court Kings Level 1 base rookie cards.

Trading Card GPP buys

Cameron Johnson – We’re just starting to se what he’s capable of at both ends of the floor. He’s a great shot and the addition of CP3 to this team can only help his chances at more exposure. A great long-term buy and still super cheap.

Kendrick Nunn – The Herro hype kind of killed some of the chatter about how good Nunn really is, but I think this guy might even be better than Nunn, especially when you consider how inexpensive his cards are right now. He’s still mired on the bench and seeing only 8-12 minutes in the full-strength Heat rotation, but injuries happen and so can hot streaks for young players who can score as well as Nunn.

More 2019-20 rookie cards to buy: Darius Bazley, Keldon johnson

Buy and stash: Talen Horton-Tucker, Dylan Windler

2020 Rookie Trading Cards I’m Buying

Anthony Edwards – There will be some inconsistent nights and stat lines but he’s in a decent spot for rookie production and he’s carrying the No. 1 pick status for another 11 months.

I covered the 2020-21 Prizm Draft Picks release last week. Pictured are the two base cards of Anthony Edwards — card #1 (L) and #41 (R)

James Wiseman – He’s going to be a frustrating player to own in DFS because he’s committing too many dumb fouls, but the upside is there and so is the playing time if he can stay on the floor.

Cole Anthony – Talent evaluators I trust really like him, and there’s a clear path to playing time for a PG with scoring upside. He’s already making the most of his minutes on the floor.

3 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting

NBA Announced to Return on July 31st

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

NBA Announced to Return on July 31st

We are excited because the NBA Announced to Return on July 31st! Let’s break down what this looks like.

They will be playing down in Sunny Orlando in Disney World Resorts with tip off on July 31st! No home games, no away games, just bubble games all day! 22 teams will be apart of the final 8 games of the season with coming 13 coming from the West, 9 coming from the East.

Each team plays 8 games to determine who the playoffs end up shaking out. There is a lot of seeding can still change especially in the East.

An interesting wrinkle they put in the plans, which we’ll call the “Zion rule” is if the 9th seed is within 4 games back of the 8th seed there will be a “play-in tournament.” Max of 2 games, if the 8th seed wins once its over. If the 9th seed wins two games they play in the playoffs.

Again, this is just to get Zion in the playoffs so Jason can bet them to win. Once the actual playoffs come in its all 7 games series

Memphis had one of the hardest schedules going into the final stretch of the season, New Orleans had a significantly easier schedule. Many projections (FiveThirtyEight specifically) had them in the playoffs over the Grizzlies.

Why are the wizards and suns there? Wiz 24-40, and only have one player of note. Suns are 26-39, Devin booker is about it. But why the heck are we bothering. Just makes it worse in terms of COVID considering they need to bring all 15 players, coaching staff, training, staff, etc.

And don’t forget about that pandemic! No guests until August when the playoffs begin, daily testing for COVID-19, German BBL tournament is requiring players wear movement tracking chips at their team hotel, NBA will be seeing how that goes, if anyone tests positive they will be removed from the team and quarantined separately.

Betting is back!

The betting lines for the NBA Championships are back and our friends over at DraftKings and FanDuel have everything already locked down!

+240: Bucks
+270: Lakers
+340: Clippers
+1200: Rockets
+2000: Celtics
+2400: Raptors
+2500: Nuggets
+2700: Heat, 76ers
+2900: Jazz
+3600: Mavs
+6000: Nets
+10000: Pacers, Thunder
+12000: Pelicans
+21000: Grizz, Blazers, Spurs
+25000: Magic, Suns, Kings, Wiz

In terms of value, it’s looking like that will be coming from the Eastern Conference. The West seems to be a crash course between the LA Lakers and LA Clippers. The East has some more interesting scenarios.

The Celtics, Raptors, Heat, and 76ers all can make a case that they can beat the Bucks. The Bucks at +240 have no value, like the Lakers,+270, and Clippers, +340. But if you can believe in one of the other 5 teams in the East to make a run, you can put a couple bucks down and hedge out when things start to become more clear.

I personally like the Celtics at +2000. I think once Kyrie Irving left they look much closer to the team that went to game 7 of the ECF than the team that got beat early last season. I think the team is there, the coach is there, and the veteran presence is there. Jayson Tatum is coming into his own and will most likely be a top 15 player again next year, so why not start now?

If you’re really feeling frisky, the Heat and 76ers at +2700 can really be a fun play. The 76ers are an up and down team with a ridiculous home/road split. Home: 29 – 2; Road: 10 – 24. There are no home and road games in the bubble of Disney World, so this may be the perfect situation, or just the absolute worst. The talent is there, hopefully everyone stayed in shape and can get to where they need to be!

Make sure to check out more Sports Betting content at WinDailySports.com! Hang out with us in our Expert Discord Chat and make sure to follow me on Twitter @michaelrasile1!

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA DFS 3/11: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/11 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 3/11 — PG

De’Aaron Fox, SAC (vs. NO) – DK $7,800

I’m locking Fox into a bunch of my GPP builds because he’s guaranteed 30-35 minutes in a pace-up game (with the highest total of the night at 235) against the Pelicans and both he and Lonzo Ball should be busy in this one. The matchup is good, the price is affordable and while the upside has been limited to around 40-45 DK points, it’s probably well over 50 tonight given the circumstances. Ball could definitely work in-game stacks, and I think Chris Paul is your sneakiest pivot in a game that could stay close, force him into his usual 4th quarter savior role, and surprise some folks.

Pivot/Stack: Chris Paul/Lonzo Ball

NBA DFS 3/11 — SG

Jrue Holiday, NO (@ SAC) – DK $8,200

We know thatJrue has some big games, and tonight is a candidate for one of his monster performancesat both ends of the floor. The price is up, so there may be better cash gameplays, but he’s a solid play in GPPs for his 60-point upside. I’ll have multiplecombos of guards and forwards in the NO-SAC game, but we can start with Fox andHoliday in our main build. Buddy Hield is a solid game stack option at SG atsuch a low price, and we have Cam Reddish as a viable value play.

Value/Stack: Cam Reddish/Buddy Hield

NBA DFS 3/11 — SF

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC (vs. NO) – DK $5,100

If you’re not into playingbench players and Hield, Bogdanovich is a high-upside play in a high-scoringgame at a very affordable price. You could pivot to Harrison Barnes as well,but he’s more of a cash game play with his limited upside. Brandon Ingram is thegame stack option at SF, but I’m building most of my lineups around the nextguy in my Fearless Five.

Pivot/Stack: Harrison Barnes/BrandonIngram

NBA DFS 3/11 — PF

Zion Williamson, NO (@ SAC) – DK $7,800

I’m anticipating lower ownership than usual because of the red “1” next to his matchup on DK – but Zion is probably matchup-proof at this point. He’s seeing 30-35 minutes regularly and the King’s frontcourt doesn’t really scare me off him. I think the main reason the Kings don’t give up big fantasy points to opposing bigs is that most teams just go small to match up with them. Zion is not your typical PF/C. Maxi Kleber makes a lot of sense at $4,600 on DK for value, but only if Kristaps Porzingis sits the second half of the Dallas back-to-back. I’m not too interested in the Sacramento bigs because of the uncertainty of minutes with Richaun Holmes back in the fold, and I can’t list the most obvious pivot because I’m playing him at C.

Value: Maxi Kleber (and see below for more PF/C)

NBA DFS 3/11 — C

Julius Randle, NYK (@ ATL) – DK $7,800

Playing Julius Randle tonight has a lot of things going for it. He played just 26 minutes in last night’s game against the Wizards and let a lot of folks down, so his ownership won’t be near what it should be in a smash spot against the Hawks. I’m fearlessly forecasting 50+ DK points for the versatile big man tonight, and the only centers I’ll be playing as pivots in any of my builds are Bam Adebayo (C/UTIL), the aforementioned Zion and Kleber (both PF/C/F/UTIL eligible) and value options Thon Maker and Nicolo Melli (also both PF/C/F/UTIL) at just $3,100.

Pivot/Punts: Bam Adebayo/Thon Maker orNicolo Melli

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 3/6: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/6 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 3/6 — PG

Devin Booker, PHO (vs. POR) – DK $8,400

With Luka Doncic (illness) and Trae Young (flu-like symptoms) questionable tonight, I’m looking directly at Booker (PG/SG/G/UTIL) for my points explosion in a favorable matchup against the Blazers. We can stack him up with Damian Lillard, and find value with one of the Pacers point guards (Aaron Holiday or T.J. McConnell, both just $4K) if necessary, as Malcolm Brogdon is doubtful and Victor Oladipo is questionable. With Evan Fournier out, Michael Carter-Williams is another position-flexible guard who can produce in bunches – especially facing the Wolves.

Stack/Punts: DamianLillard/Aaron Holiday or T.J. McConnell/MCW

NBA DFS 3/6 — SG

Bradley Beal, WAS (vs. ATL) – DK $10,400

We could see a ceiling game from Beal (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) tonight in a high-scoring matchup against the Hawks, which means that 70 fantasy points aren’t out of the question if he gets hot from three-point range. There’s plenty of value out there in this slate, so spending up for Beal makes sense tonight. I’m not going to bother with a pivot, but Markelle Fultz is a sneaky value option (don’t play with MCW) and feel free to stack up this game with Jeff Teague (PG/SG/G/UTIL) and/or Kevin Huerter (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) if Young misses.

Value/Stack: Markelle Fultz/JeffTeague and/or Kevin Huerter

NBA DFS 3/6 — SF

DeAndre Hunter, ATL (@ WAS) – DK $4,900

He’s priced under $5K andhas enormous upside, albeit a fair share of risk. Hunter remains one of myfavorite GPP plays in up-tempo games, and he could get more minutes than normalif Cam Reddish (lower back pain) is limited in any way. If you don’t play Booker,then Mikal Bridges is a fine SF option for the Suns, who will be withoutDeAndre Ayton and looking for more scoring from their guards and forwards, andstackers might consider punting Jerome Robinson (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL), who’s beenseeing bigger minutes and will draw the start tonight against the Hawks.

Pivot/Punt: MikalBridges/Jerome Robinson

NBA DFS 3/6 — PF

Cheick Diallo, PHO (vs. POR) – DK $3,200

Diallo is not a play for the fearful, but he’s a great pivot from Aron Baynes in the Suns-Blazers battle and has 10x upside if he gets over 20 minutes tonight. He’s likely to be the first Suns player off the bench tonight. The spend-up options are Domantas Sabonis for a depleted Pacers rotation and Zion Williamson in a tough matchup that will keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Spend Pivots: Domantas Sabonis/ZionWilliamson

NBA DFS 3/6 — C

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (vs. MEM) – DK $9,300

You can only play two players with center-only designationson DK today, and Aron Baynes will likely eat up a lot of that ownership in GPPs,so I’m looking directly at Porzingis for the bulk of my lineups. Luka is questionable,THJ is out and even Dorian Finney-Smith is nursing a hip injury that could keephim out tonight, so we could see max usage for Porzingis and Seth Curry in apace-up game against Memphis they should still win. Pivots include NikolaVucevic (also C/UTIL only) and Hassan Whiteside, but neither has the 70-pointceiling of the 7-3 Latvian.

Pivots: Nikola Vucevic or HassanWhiteside

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 3/3: The Fearless Five

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/3 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 3/3 — PG

Lonzo Ball, NO (vs. MIN) – DK $7,300

Ball has been flirting with a triple-double for weeks, and tonight could be the night he finally gets it. The Wolves are bad at defending distributors and this game features the highest total of the night, with the Pelicans 129.0 implied team total leading the way. De’Aaron Fox is the obvious pivot play, but we’ve seen his upside capped lately with the abdominal injury and he’s a little more expensive. We can run back DeAngelo Russell from the Minnesota side in-game stacks.

Pivot/Stack: De’AaronFox/DeAngelo Russell

NBA DFS 3/3 — SG

Jamal Murray, DEN (vs. GSW) – DK $6,700

The price on Murray (PG/SG/G/UTIL eligible) does not account for his 60-point upside in this matchup against the Warriors – who get shredded by opposing guards of all varieties. Starting up your PG/SG/G slots on DraftKings with Ball, Russell and Murray leave $5,400/per for the remaining five players, and we should be able to find enough value at our forward spots to squeeze in one more stud with 50+ upside. The best pivot is probably Malik Beasley at $6,000 on DK, since that’s a game we’ll need to have plenty of exposure to. If you’re building DEN-GSW game stacks, Andrew Wiggins is the spend option and Jordan Poole makes a good bit of sense at just $4,900, as he should be able to reach 6x in 30 minutes. He just doesn’t have the upside we’re seeking for large-field GPPs, so Wiggins is preferred.

Pivot/Stack: Malik Beasley/AndrewWiggins or Jordan Poole

NBA DFS 3/3 — SF

Buddy Hield, SAC (vs. WAS) – DK $5,500

Hield is risky because he doesn’t start and has seen fewer than 30 minutes in his last six games, but he’s got a legitimate 8x upside in this ideal matchup against a Wizards team that’s dead last in the league against shooting wings. If you’re not into starting sixth men you can spend up to DeMar DeRozan ($7,400) or take a chance with the recently quiet Will Barton, who has a good matchup but last cracked 40 DK points on Jan. 31 @ Milwaukee. For me, I’m interested in Hield in GPPs because he could knock down a bunch of threes and crack the 30-minute mark. Bradley Beal is obviously an option too, but I’m not that interested with the price tag north of $10K.

Spend/Pivot:DeMar DeRozan/Will Barton

NBA DFS 3/3 — PF

Zion Williamson, NO (vs. MIN) – DK $7,700

Are you ready for the Zion ceiling game? He’s a near-lock for 40 FP in a great matchup vs. the Wolves, and there’s no chance that any of the Minnesota forwards can handle him. We could see 60+ from the Pelicans PF tonight and he’s $1,000 cheaper than Pascal Siakam, who’s been producing at about the same rate. I’ll have shares of Rui Hachimura ($5,300 – PF/C/F/UTIL eligible) as well, and game stackers can explore James Johnson, who’ll be coming off the bench but should see big minutes against the Pels.

Pivot/Stack: Rui Hachimura/James Johnson

NBA DFS 3/3 — C

Bismack Biyombo, CHA (vs. SA) – DK $4,300

Biyombo is cheap enough to allow us to fit all the pricey guards we desire and Zion – so I’ll have big shares of him. He’s also been producing to the tune of 31 DK points per game over his last three. The Charlotte big man gets a cake matchup against a depleted Spurs frontcourt and has 8x to 10x upside tonight at home in a starting role. If you’ve saved some room for center salary, you can roster DeAndre Ayton or Steven Adams. Biyombo is only a solid play if he starts, so pivot to Cozy Zeller if they roll out that big stiff instead.

Pivots: DeAndre Ayton or Steven Adams

4 years ago 0 comment

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NBA DFS 2/23: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/23 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? ...

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 2/21: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/21 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/21 — PG

Luka Doncic, DAL (@ ORL) – DK $10,600

We saw Bam drop 70 fantasy points last night, and while the paceof that game helped dictate a new ceiling for the Heat’s big man, a now-healthyDoncic could arrive at 70 DK points tonight without the benefit of a decentmatchup. With Damon Lillard sitting out tonight, it’s probably a slate whereyou should pay up for Luka or LeBron James, and my money’s on the guy with 7xupside. Nobody on the Magic can stop Luka from doing his thing. I don’t seemuch of a point to stacking up Markelle Fultz, who’s now $6,200 and could getsaddled with the return of D.J. Augustin (questionable), but if you choose to fadeLuka and go with LeBron at SF (and don’t want to spend way up at the PG spot),both Jamal Murray ($7,100) and Jrue Holiday ($7,300) could have big games aswell.

Pivots: Jamal Murray/JrueHoliday

NBA DFS 2/21 — SG

Jaylen Brown, BOS (@ MIN) – DK $5,900

The Wolves could be in trouble tonight, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns out, no more Robert Covington defense to stop opposing swingmen/forwards, and a cast of fringe NBA talents rounding out their bizarre rotation. If they can keep in close, we could see monster value from Brown, who should be recovered from his ankle issues following the break. Kemba Walker is out, so there will be more shots to go around, and the price on Jaylen is just too good to pass up tonight. In fact, he’s the same exact price as Marcus Smart, who doesn’t have the same scoring upside. I won’t chastise you for going to C.J. McCollum (PG/SG/G/UTIL), and there’s plenty of positional eligibility to roster both on DK. Stacking DeAngelo Russell could be a move if the Wolves can keep this close, but he is kind of expensive for such a tough matchup.

Pivot/Stack: C.J. McCollum/DeAngeloRussell

NBA DFS 2/21 — SF

Gordon Hayward, BOS (@ MIN) – DK $7,000

Jayson Tatum is going to be very popular at just $7,800 on DK, so Hayward could go overlooked in a matchup where he’ll be handling the ball just as much (if not more) than the former Dukie. Hayward could see 20+ points, double-digit rebounds, a handful of assists (or more) and plenty of supplemental stats to fill out his fantasy output. The matchup is excellent, and we’ll need some $6-8K players with a 7x upside if we’re going to make this work. We should probably stay away from stacking more Wolves in the 1-2-3 spots (preferring exposure to James Johnson or Naz Reid), but if you want to pivot from Hayward, the obvious choice is Tatum or the upside-laden Brandon Ingram.

Pivots: Jayson Tatum/Brandon Ingram

NBA DFS 2/21 — PF

James Johnson, MIN (vs. BOS) – DK $4,600

Johnson has a 40-point upside if he sees 30 minutes, and we must find some value somewhere on this slate. This is another situation we’ll have to monitor before lock to see who’s starting for the Wolves, but Mr. OG Throat Tattoo will be the likely veteran to log bigger minutes and try to replace what KAT offers from a scoring and defensive perspective. Spend-up pivots include Zion Williamson (who we also haven’t seen hit his ceiling yet despite a 50 DK point outing against these same Blazers before the break) and Anthony Davis (PF/C/F/UTIL), who should be fresh and ready to put up big numbers in a pace-up spot against Memphis. Both will find a way onto my multi-entry builds this evening.

Spend Pivots: Zion Williamson/Anthony Davis

NBA DFS 2/21 — C

Hassan Whiteside, POR (vs. NO) – DK $9,200

Whiteside probably watched Bam Adebayo his former teammate go OFF during the All-Star break and last night and got a little steamed, especially since Bam has low-key criticized his lack of nuance and pick-and-roll by liking and emoji-dropping on a tweet from October. But Whiteside is a consistent double-double machine and solid shot-blocker who should log big minutes tonight in a game that cries for usage from the Lillard-less Blazers. Whether or not playing both Zion and Whiteside in the same lineups is one of the questions we’ll have to ask ourselves as we get closer to lock. The obvious pivot at this price point is Andre Drummond, but if you need more value, we can look to Serge Ibaka (solid floor, decent upside as a starter without Marc Gasol and facing the defensively challenged DeAndre Ayton) at just $6,500.

Pivot/Value: Andre Drummond/Serge Ibaka

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 2/13: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/13 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware! There are just two NBA games tonight, whichmeans we could focus on some of these plays for showdowns or for the main slateon DK. It’s not a night to heavily invest, because the big bankrolls will haveall the angles covered – so I recommend single-entry tournaments and low-stakes20-max games.

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/13 — PG

Chris Paul, OKC (@ NO) – DK $7,100

Paul has been playing well lately, and he’s been doing a lot of scoringfor the Thunder. He’ll be a chalk play tonight at PG, but we can differentiateelsewhere. We’ll have to keep an eye out for Boston backcourt injuries tonightto find some value, but Marcus Smart sticks out as a solid play against theClippers, and Lonzo Ball is fine to stack in a game with 225 total.

Pivot/Stack: Marcus Smart/Lonzo Ball

NBA DFS 2/13 — SG

J.J. Redick, NO (vs. OKC) – DK $4,400

He’s a great shooter with a quick release and he’s all over the floor. He’s probably been getting a little more than his normal run/usage with Brandon Ingram out, but I always like playing Redick in GPPs when he’s this cheap – there’s just a lot of stuff he can do. If you’re spending up and Ingram remains out, Jrue Holiday is a solid stud to roster, and Dennis Schroeder coming off the bench for OKC can score 25-30 real-life points in about that many minutes.

Pivot/Stack: Jrue Holiday/Dennis Schroeder

NBA DFS 2/13 — SF

Paul George, LAC (@ BOS) – DK $7,900

The price is under $8K and he saw 35 minutes in the last game. It’s a tough matchup on paper. Ingram is a fine play if he’s cleared for action, and while Jayson Tatum really struggled with his shot last game (5-for-15 from the field, 0-7 from 3PT range), he could be in for some high usage if Jaylen Brown (probable, ankle) sits or is limited because of his injury. George hasn’t posted any huge scoring game lately, but he’s been rebounding more and I think he’s in a decent spot unless he draws Marcus Smart defense. I’ll be using plenty of Kawhi Leonard as well, but he’s an obvious play here and we could differentiate ourselves if we fade him a few entries for low-stakes, multi-entry GPPs.

Pivots: Kawhi Leonard or Brandon Ingram/Jayson Tatum

NBA DFS 2/13 — PF

Zion Williamson, NO (vs. OKC) – DK $7,800

Zion had a breakthrough game, eclipsing 50 DK points for the first time on Tuesday night. If Ingram sits again, he’s worth another look. Combo guards and versatile bigs fare best against the Thunder, so this husky fellow is in a smash spot vs. the wispy PFs from OKC. Is there a chance they use Nerlens Noel at the 4 to try and stop Zion? It’s possible. If so, maybe we can spend down to Marcus Morris, who’s seeing plenty of run for the Clippers. Danilo Gallinari is still way too cheap and works for OKC-NO game stacks, especially considering how bad the Pels have defended versatile forwards like “Il Gallo.”

Value Pivot/Stack: Marcus Morris/Danilo Gallinari

NBA DFS 2/13 — C

Steven Adams, OKC (@ NO) – DK $5,300

Adams provides a 45-point DK upside at a reasonable price, and the matchup isn’t a bad one. Center is remarkably weak in this slate, with Zion being the only C-eligible player that’s more expensive than Adams. Don’t overthink this one. Plugin Adams at C and find some of the quirky plays in other spots. Both Montrez Harrell (limited minutes and upside lately) and Derrick Favors (same) make some sense as well – they just don’t have GPP-winning upside tonight like the guards and forwards do.

Pivot/Stack: Montrez Harrell/Derrick Favors

4 years ago 0 comment

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