Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to Thursday’s NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays & slate strategy for this six-game NBA slate!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
In looking at this six-game NBA DFS slate on Thursday, the good news is that most of the big injury news we need is in the earlier set of games as have to keep an eye on the status of Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, and Elfrid Payton. This slate is LOADED with stars and so getting the value to plug in those ceiling plays is going to be a critical component to how we attack tonight’s action.
If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know on these smaller slates, I like to try and anchor to a game environment that I think has GPP winning upside and one that I think is mis-priced. We want star power, high totals and fast pace and while you may think I am obligated to go Brooklyn and Orlando tonight – there is a game I like far more – the late-night hammer of the Bucks and Pelicans.
The Buck Stops Here
The Milwaukee and New Orleans game checks off all the boxes I look for when building an NBA DFS GPP stack – we have a high total of 240+, a game with one of the fastest projected paces on the slate and recent trends that give us reason to exploit it.
Over the last 10 games, both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive team rating, while the Bucks continue to play at a top 5 pace in the NBA and New Orleans on the other hand has been the second-worst defensive team in the Association during that stretch.
We have talked about this now for weeks, but we can attack the Pelicans in a variety of ways – first and foremost, with the guards. No team in the NBA is giving up more three’s (17/game) than New Orleans the last 10 games while also giving up the most assists per game and allowing opponents to shoot at a 50.4% clip.
You do not have to look back far to see what this means for the opposition – just look at last night against the Pistons where the Pelicans gave up 80 DK points to the vaunted Detroit backcourt of Dennis Smith Jr., Saben Lee and Svi Mykhaliuk. When DSJ is locking in 32 fantasy points and Saben Lee gets you 28 – you know this is a trend we can continue to attack with a similar value guard like DJ Augustin ($4.1K).
It has not just been guards that have hit ceiling – the opposing big men have as well and this was a spot we were all over yesterday with Mason Plumlee who returned the favor with a 49 DK point evening and a near triple-double. This week alone we have seen opposing big men like Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams combine for nearly 70 DK points in this same spot while DeAndre Ayton dropped 40+ of his own. This could mean a ceiling performance for someone like Brook Lopez ($4.3K) and/or Bobby Portis ($4.9K).
Feels like a may have buried the lede here huh?
You are likely not starting this game stack with DJA and BroLo – so let’s jump to why you are here – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K). Giannis gets a match-up with the 2nd worst defense in the NBA the last 10 games, one he dropped 68 DK points against earlier this year in a game Jrue Holiday actually played – and well, this should not need much convincing.
Khris Middleton ($8.2K) is likely the toughest decision point from Milwaukee as we make our DFS lineups tonight. Giannis is the easy pay up and the fringe value plays like DJA or Donte DiVincenzo ($5K) are cheap ways to get exposure to their backcourt – the question is, is Middleton too pricey or not priced high enough?
Despite Jrue Holiday being sidelined, Middleton has been a horrendous DFS asset in recent games, going under 40 DK points in 7 of the last 10 games. The minutes have been there, the volume has been there but the efficiency has simply not been.
Now the flip side, there have been two games in the last 10 where Middleton has hit for 60+ DK points – once against Denver and once against Sacramento, and in both games, he flashed incredible efficiency from the floor – shooting 59% and 56% in those games.
So the path for Middleton seems simple – if he is hitting shots, he can be a slate breaker (no sh*t Sherlock – welcome to every NBA player). However, remember the match-up – the Pelicans are allowing teams to shoot the ball at a nearly 51% rate the last 10 games which ranks as the 4th worst mark in basketball. Do you know who is right above them? The same Sacramento Kings team that Middleton just dropped a 60 burger against.
Middleton to me is where this game goes from a cash game staple you pick pieces from, to a full on GPP game stack. If you think Middleton is a floor play, the safer route is to take Giannis and Augustin and stop there but as we saw against both the Kings and Nuggets, there is a path where Giannis hits his ceiling alongside Middleton if his shot is falling!
Run it Back
Now if we are taking multiple Bucks pieces, especially Middleton, assuming their offensive onslaught continues – it only makes sense to run it back with New Orleans who would need to keep this game close to get full run from the Milwaukee side.
The nice part about New Orleans is they run essentially a 6 man rotation with their starting five and Josh Hart ($5K) so you know where the minutes and production will come from.
The New Orleans side of this game is what really intrigues me about a game stack because the pricing on the entire Pelicans team is reasonable and fits easily around a Giannis-led Bucks stack.
Zion Williamson ($8.6K) is the only Pelicans player sitting over $8K on DraftKings tonight, while we can get mid-range value with 30+ minute players in Steven Adams, Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe who all sit around $5K.
If you are stacking Giannis, Middleton and DJA on the other side of this game it leaves you with nearly $5.5K per player for the rest of your build – so you start to see where the Pelicans pricing becomes an ideal run back fit.
In the earlier season meeting between these two teams, the Pelicans fantasy attack was largely balanced as you can see here via Statmuse.
That balanced production is great for the mid-range plays – but becomes an issue for ceiling if we are paying the premium for Zion and/or Brandon Ingram ($7.9K).
Honestly, I think Zion is overpriced and I also think he will be popular here tonight. At $8.6K he needs to go for 50+ DK points to hit 6x ceiling – a mark he has done just once in the last 10 games.
Ingram feels more correctly priced, as he would need 47 DK points to hit 6x value, a mark he has hit or exceeded in 4 of the last 10 games. The one “issue’ is I worry about the wing defense of Middleton and Giannis on him, but if there is one Pelicans pay up I want – I lean towards BI.
The other option would be to go more balanced with the Pelicans – ignore the Zion/BI pieces and instead live in the mid range. Stack up Lonzo Ball ($6.3K) alongside two players like Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe – who both share positive correlation metrics with Lonzo this season.
If you are going to play someone like Steven Adams ($5.1K) this is where you need to think through correlations and his impact on others. How does Adams hit his ceiling as he did last night against Detroit with 44 DK points? He does so by pulling down 15 rebounds – meaning guys like Zion (only 6 last night) see more floor than a ceiling. This is the kind of logic you need to think through when stacking the Pelicans and how you can get leverage.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Stepping back and looking at this slate – it is LOADED with stars and so anchoring to one of them is critical but more than anything, anchroing to a game matters.
Think back to last night as an example – chalk like Jayson Tatum busts because the Celtics get blown out or a star like LeBron James gets you just 30 DK points because he was on the bench in a blowout the entire fourth quarter.
Planting your flags on a game environment is just as important as which star you anchor to and so tonight with an eye on Giannis as my premier pay up, I want to find a path to 4 quarters of ceiling and a run back in a Pelicans game stack that could be a DFS goldmine!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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