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Yordan Alvarez

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

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10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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5 years ago 0 comments

10/19 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown and Prop Picks

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

The 10/19 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports are ready, as the Yankees forced a Game 6 in the ALCS and hopped the first flight back to Houston

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10/19 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

10/19 DFSSP Strategy and Picks

The only pitcher I’ll have more than 10 percent exposure to herewill be Jose Urquidy, who ha a shot at pitching 2-3 innings of high-strikeout actionagainst a Yankees team that can pile up Ks and just had to fly back to Houston.Urquidy has 4 Ks in 1.2 IP of postseason action and finished the regular seasonwith a 24% K rate. He’s an option, I don’t like the Yankees options facing anAstros team that’s going to have great ABs.

Let’s move on to the hitters. That’s what we’re doing on FanDuelanyway – where our first sample lineup from 10/18 performed quite well.

10/19 DFS Hitters

The top hitter picks for the 10/19 DFS Showdown are going to bepretty balanced, leaning toward the Astros, especially without much worry aboutforcing in pitchers. Unfortunately, all the pricing for hitters is up and verytight – since we have no aces on the mound.

10/19 DFS New York Yankeesbats

Gleyber Torres (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Just one hit (a double) last night, but he’s got an excellent plate approach with the requisite kind of discipline that leads to production in key spots. None of the Yankees have faced Urquidy before, so I trust approach as much as anything here. I’m going right back to the well even though the price is up a tad.

DJ LeMahieu (DK $15,600/$10,400)

The ownership will be higher, but so is the price (higher than JoseAltuve!) – so I’m going to build a few lineups with Torres, LeMahieu and avalue Yankees bat, with a balanced group of Astros I like. Yesterday’s leadoffbomb may have been a Yankee Stadium special, but LeMahieu is aggressive at theplate and has excellent protection in the lineup, which coming back around sometimesprovides him ample baserunners to knock in a few (107 RBI in 2019). I might belower owned than last night, but he’s still part of my core build.

Gary Sanchez (DK $10,800/$7,200)

The price shot upbecause of the lag from Game 4’s HR, but I’m not off Gary. Hitters like thisneed to bust through their bad stints, and this certainly is a park where hehas an advantage, as the HR Park Factor for away RHBs was 156 for Minute Maidin 2019. If he’s in the lineup, I’m using him.

Aaron Hicks (DK $9,900/$6,600) and Aaron Judge ($13,800/$9,200)

The Aarons will be popular, and while I like them both in this matchup, the prices are also much higher. I’ll be around 20-40 percent ownership for both of them but they’re not core builds because of ownership (Hicks) and the price jump (Judge).

Otheroptions: Didi Gregorius (DK $8,100/$5400), Brett Gardner (DK $11,100/$7,400)

10/19 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Alex Bregman (DK $16,200/$10,800)

You can only avoid Bregman’sbat for so long, and he hit some balls on the screws last night that were rightat guys. He’s going to avoid high ownership because of the price, and he’s probablygoing to get a couple ABs against J.A. Happ tonight. The entire Houston lineupbrutalizes Happ, and I want the ringleaders (Bregman, Altuve and Yordan Alvarez)in as many lineups as they’ll fit.

George Springer (DK $15,900/$10,600) andCarlos Correa ($12,600/$8,400)

My outlook on both of these guys is similar – I’m going to beusing them together in stacks with Bregman and Altuve when possible, but mostlygrabbing one or the other. Springer makes more sense as a cash game play thanCorrea, who I like better for GPPs, even with Correa’s price staying the same.

JoseAltuve (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Altuve is itching for another breakout like he in Game 3, and he’sa much better hitter at home (.306/.372/.608 slash this season at home). I’llhave more shares than last night in GPPs, especially since the salary didn’tjump much.

Other10/18 DFS options: Martin Maldonado ($5,400/$3,600) Michael Brantley (DK $11,400/$7,600),Yordan Alvarez ($14,100/$9,400)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Yankees heavy):

Captain (1.5x) – G. Sanchez (10,800)

UTIL – A. Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Torres ($9,600)

UTIL – Gregorius ($6,200)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy)

Captain (1.5x) – Jose Altuve ($15,300)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – J. Urquidy ($8,200)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/just bats for both teams):

Captain (1.5x) – Torres ($14,400)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

10/19 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

The prices haven’t changed much so we can tackle this similarly tolast night, though I’ll be using more Astros. I was very Yankees-heavy lastnight and it worked out.

SampleFD lineup (Yankees heavy, $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Torres ($6,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Judge ($7,500)

UTIL – Altuve ($9,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Astros heavy — $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – Alvarez ($7,000)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced – $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Judge ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)

UTIL – Sanchez ($6,000)

UTIL – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

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Aaron Judge (+0.5), Jose Altuve (+0.5) and Gleyber Torres (+0.5)

I prefer Judge because he’s just as much of a threat to score as Springer and benfits from more RBI chances because of the Yankees 9 and 1 hitters.

Altuve is my pick because Yankee pitchers have been less careful with him than Bregman, who they’ve been staying away from. I really like the +0.5 here too,

I can’t rely at all on Stanton, and Torres is my guy. Let’s take it down!!!

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/18 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

With the Astros up 3-1, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination in the ALCS. We’ve got your 10/18 DFS picks for the featured Showdown contests.

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10/18 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(7:08 p.m. EST)

10/18 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Astros ace JustinVerlander has the edge in upside and in most scenarios will go deeper into thisgame than Yankees LHP James Paxton – though the Yankees have a slight edge in theimplied totals. You don’t need both pitchers in this one, and I’ll likely have someexposure to both starters, even with Paxton considerably cheaper.

Justin Verlander (DK $18,000 CPT, $12,000UTIL)

There’s always the possibility that Verlander throws one of his trademark gems against the Bronx Bombers on their home turf, but the righthander’s vulnerability to the long ball makes him a risky option at such a high price. The veteran hurler – a future Hall of Famer who’s posted the highest K/9 rates of his entire 15-year career in 2018 (12.20 K/9) and 2019 (12.11 K/9) – has struggled a bit this postseason but struck out 12 batters in six innings as recently as Sept. 28. If you’re building Verlander lineups with him at Captain, the implication is that you’ll be fading Yankee bats, so you’ll probably need to employ some creativity if you also want the big Houston bats.

James Paxton (DK $12,900 CPT, $8,900 UTIL)

The price is right, and the upside is there, but Paxton hasn’tgiven us his best so far this postseason. He has, however, struck out 11batters in 7 IP, and although the Astros don’t whiff all that often, they’lllikely come out aggressive at the plate with a 3-1 lead in the series. IfPaxton’s stuff is on point, he could easily post double-digit Ks over 5-6innings of work.

10/18 DFS Hitters

Who’s going to be the hero of Game 5, if not one of the startingpitchers? Here are my top hitter picks for the 10/18 DFS Showdown.

10/18 DFS New York Yankees bats

Gleyber Torres (DK $12,300/$8,200))

If he’d come up big with the bases loaded against Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning last night, he’d probably be the odds-on favorite for World Series MVP heading into Game 5, but the 22-year-old is still looking to bolster his batting resume with a standout performance in Yankee Stadium. He’s still slashing .345/.406/.793 this postseason, with the only knock being his relatively futility against Verlander thus far (1-for-12 with 5 Ks).

DJ LeMahieu (DK $13,500/$9,000)

Torres hasn’t had much success against Verlander, but LeMahieuis 5-for-15 career with a homer and just two Ks. He’s got Aaron Judge hitting rightbehind him and should get some pitches to hit as the Yankees leadoff hitter onFriday night.

Gary Sanchez (DK $7,800/$5,200)

He parked one into the left field stands last night and is massively underpriced – even in this difficult matchup against Verlander, who has owned him (2-for-19, 5 Ks). Gary is still pretty scary, though, and he’ll be a chalky value play in this Showdown. It’ll be interesting to see if Aaron Boone moves him up a little further in the lineup tonight.

Other options: Didi Gregorius (DK $8,100/$5400), Aaron Judge ($11,400/$7,600), Aaron Hicks ($8,400/$5,600)

10/18 DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,100/$9,400)

Last night’s homer – Springer’s 13th career postseason HR in 166 at-bats – was a powerful statementby the leadoff man that he’s ready for another big night in Game 5, and hismatchup against Paxton and subsequent relievers should give him plenty of chancesto make his mark. The price is high, but he’ll be the main Astros hitter I havein my builds.

Carlos Correa ($12,600/$8,400)

Like Springer, Correa hit his second homer of the postseasonand the 10^th of his postseason career. Springer and Correa form quitethe power tandem, as that was sixth time those two have homered in the samegame in the postseason – an all-time MLB record, according to a tweet by STATS.Correa has good numbers vs. LHP (138 career wRC+, .371 wOBA) and Paxton in particular(9-for-22 career).

Jose Altuve (DK $15,000/$10,000)

It’ll be tough to fit in Altuve at the Captain spot, but he’scertainly viable in Astros-heavy lineups that fade Verlander. He’s slashing.351/.385/.730 this postseason with four homers and seven runs scored in just39 plate appearances.

Other 10/18 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,200/$6,800), Alex Bregman (DK $14,700/$9,800), Yordan Alvarez ($13,800/$9,200), Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000)

Note: Robinson Chirinos may sit after he got banged up last night behind the plate, so stay tuned to who’s donning the “tools of ignorance” for Houston tonight.

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Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Yankees heavy):

Captain (1.5x) – G. Torres ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Paxton ($8,600)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($9,000)

UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Springer ($9,400)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy w/Verlander):

Captain (1.5x) – Verlander ($18,000)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Springer ($9,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy w/justbats for both teams):

Captain (1.5x) – Springer ($14,100)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Altuve ($10,000)

10/18 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Without pitchers in the player pool, there’s a need for evenmore variance in your lineup building. Try to leave a few bucks on the table inthe larger contests and don’t worry about having the most expensive player inthe MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup (Yankees heavy – $500 left):

MVP (2x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Springer ($9,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)

UTIL – Torres ($7,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

Sample FD lineup (Astros heavy — $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)

UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)

Sample FD lineup (Balanced – $1,000 left):

MVP (2x) – Correa ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)

UTIL – Torres ($7,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)

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Justin Verlander Under 7.5 Strikeouts & James Paxton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (3x WIN)

Verlander would normally be a pretty safe bet to reach eight Ks, but the more the Yankees see of the veteran, the more they’ll provide excellent ABs. I expect Verlander to challenge hitters in Game 5 and as a result, there will be more balls put in play early in counts.

We’re also counting on Paxton giving us his best stuff. As I mentioned before, he’s whiffed 11 batters in 7 IP this postseason, and I expect him to go a little deeper into this game than he did in Game 2.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/17 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

NOTE: This 10/17 DFS MLB preview was written on 10/16 but still applies due to postponement.

The 10/17 DFS MLB guide focuses on Showdown, one that could see runs aplenty.

The Astros toss out Zack Greinke. He’ll be opposed by Yanks hurler Masahiro Tanaka, who put Houston’s bats in cold storage in an impressive Game 1 win. Both offenses have yet to really flex their respective muscles, something that could change tonight.

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10/17 DFS Showdown: HOU @ NYY

MVP/Captain (2X)

Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU (DK $15,900, FD $9500)

Altuve slammed his fourth homer of the postseason on Tuesday, setting the tone for Houston’s 4-1 win. He’s hitting .375/.412/.813 in October with half of his 12 hits going for extra bases. Though he has just one steal in the postseason, Altuve remains a threat to swipe if the Yankees have their guard down.

All-Star (1.5X, FanDuel Only)

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY (FD $13,200, DK $7500)

If Altuve is the present, then Torres has already called dibs as the future at second base. Like Altuve, Torres went deep on Tuesday and comes into tonight hitting .417/.500/1.000 with a pair of homers. He’s hit in each of New York’s six postseason games and is the one bat in the Pinstripes lineup that could put up 20 Fantasy points in an instant.

Dial U for Utility

Utility

Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU (DK $14,100, FD $6500)

Remember the first moments of Creed v. Drago in Rocky IV when Apollo kept jabbing and jabbing…until Ivan finally let loose and…you know the rest. That’s Alvarez’s bat, which is languishing at .207 in the postseason. He has yet to record a hit in the ALCS, but — as mentioned previously — Alvarez homered every 11.59 at-bats in the regular season. I’ll call my shot: if they play tonight, Alvarez goes deep.

Utility

Yuli Gurriel, 1B, HOU (DK $11,700 FD $6000)

Like Alvarez, Gurriel has scuffled in the ALCS. Like Alvarez, Gurriel has the type of bat that can explode in any given swing. Although he didn’t hit well against the Yankees in the regular season (.214 batting average), three of his six hits were for extra bases. You’ll take a 1-for-4 from Gurriel if that one hit was an extra base knock with runners on.

Utility

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY (DK $9600, FD $5500)

There is officially no in-between when it comes to my Utility picks. Sanchez has just two hits in 21 postseason at-bats this season. Oh, lest we forget: Sanchez also has 10 strikeouts. Either this Showdown lineup hits it big or it’s going to be money blown away.

I’d bet on the former…This 10/17 DFS MLB Showdown feels like the long green coming my way.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/10 DFS MLB Showdown: Astronomical Meltdown?

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/10 DFS MLB Showdown will either result in a sigh of relief at Minute Maid Park or the foundation of one hell of a sports weekend for Tampa Bay. Game 5 of the American League Divisional Series between the Rays and Astros (7:07 PM Eastern, FS1) brings us Tyler Glasnow ($15,000 DraftKings) v. Gerrit Cole ($18,000 DK) along with a loaded Showdown lineup.

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10/8 DFS Showdown

It’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

Count on Houston A-Team

MVP (2X)

Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU (FD, $9000, DK $13,800)

One of three Astros who’ve remembered how to hit past late September, Altuve is hitting .313 /.353/.813 in the ALDS. Four of his five postseason hits have been of the extra base persuasion (two doubles, two homers) and I’ll bank on his career .968 OPS in ALDS play to carry not only the Astros into the long-awaited ALCS collision with the Yankees, but also to lead you and I toward the long green.

All-Star (1.5X)

Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU (FD $8000, DK, $14,100)

He has yet to provide the thunder of one of his mammoth blasts, but Alvarez has hit .375/.375/.863 with three doubles entering tonight. Back home in H-Town, Alvarez will be more at ease and more likely to rake (1.140 home OPS). He’s averaged a homer every 11.59 at-bats, a number that suggests Alvarez is well overdue to go yard. Having experienced firsthand how loud Minute Maid Park can get in October, I can only imagine the noise level if Alvarez goes deep in a clutch situation tonight.

Utility

Tommy Pham, OF, TB (FD $7000, DK $12,900)

Pham has been the MVP of this series and will be the reason Astros fans could wake up on Friday morning in a gloomy state. He’s hit .429/.455/.715 in the postseason, recording three of his nine hits in Houston. Pham’s 12.8% walk rate and modest 18.8% strikeout rate indicates he won’t be an easy out for Cole. For all of his postseason pop, Pham has just a 24.8% fly ball rate, but he will sting the hell out of the ball, evidenced by his 43.6% hard contact rate.

Bargain at the Bottom

Utility

Avisail Garcia, OF, TB (FD $6000, DK $11,700)

Although I expected Garcia to hit well on Tuesday, I wasn’t expecting four hits. He’s not as productive outside of Tropicana Field (.711 road OPS), yet I’m placing Garcia here because he’s capable of carrying the momentum west of Tampa Bay. Like Pham, he’s not a frequent fly ball hitter (31.6%), yet an increase in line drives (22.3%) and a slight drop in ground balls (46%) makes Garcia potentially dangerous.

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Utility

Josh Reddick, OF, HOU (FD $4500, DK $8100)

Hitless in seven ADLS at-bats, Reddick will likely get the start because of his .977 OPS against Rays pitching in the regular season. Reddick is a 10/10 DFS MLB Showdown choice despite being mostly below-average after the All-Star break. He revived his bat with a September that saw Reddick hit .354 with four homers and 12 RBI over 62 at-bats. The numbers indicate that Reddick is more effective batting sixth, where he’s posted a .331/.372/.493 mark with six homers, 19 RBI and 19 runs scored.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/8 DFS MLB Showdown Picks: One Night in Tampa Bay

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Thanks to Charlie Morton and a few well-hung pitches from Zack Greinke, there is a 10/8 DFS MLB Showdown to play (HOU at TB, 7:07 PM Eastern). It means Showdown, so let’s put five on it.

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10/8 DFS Showdown

MVP (2X)

Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU (FD $9500, FD $14,700)

This ends tonight, so I’m going with someone capable of doing Big Man Work. Bregman has five hits in the first three games with a homer, double and a stolen base. His 44.7% hard contact rate in the regular season will pay off, as will Bregman’s 45.9% fly ball rate. My hunch is a quick knockout, with Bregman being a big reason why.

All-Star (1.5X)

Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU (FD $8000, DK, $13,800)

Alvarez averages 14.2 FanDuel points per game and did not exempt Rays pitching from his historic 87-game run, tagging them with .364/.500/1.000 with a pair of homers. He’s averaging 10.3 FD points in the first three games and will have a chance to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s gamble of using Diego Castillo as the opener. Alvarez’s .984 OPS on the road and 1.035 OPS when batting fifth makes him a foundation for my 10/8 DFS MLB Showdown plays.

Utility

Austin Meadows, OF, TB (FD $7000, DK $13,200)

He’s had games of 15.5 and 16.2 FanDuel points and gets the critical task of leading off against Justin Verlander, who comes in on short rest. Meadows is batting .214 in the ALDS, but he’s drawing walks (helping his .357 OBP) and two of his three hits are doubles. The .268 Isolated Power and .331 BABIP are solid calling cards. That he can steal bases (12) makes him appealing as well.

Bargain at the Bottom

Utility

Robinson Chirinos, C, HOU (FD $4500, DK $8100)

I’m willing to take a flier on Chirinos, who did hit .267/.421/600 with a homer in 15 at-bats versus Tampa Bay pitching. You’ll love him just as much if the Astros slot him in the eighth spot. Chirinos has a slash line of .280/.381/.506 (.887 OPS) with nine homers, 30 RBI and 32 runs scored.

Utility

Avisail Garcia, OF, TB (FD $6000, DK $10,800)

If there’s life beyond Tuesday for Tampa Bay, it will come from Garcia, who is a far more dominant slugger at home than on the road. Garcia had a .894 OPS with 13 of his 20 homers at The Trop. The once-promising power may not materialize, but Garcia did have a .341 BABIP in the regular season. He’s also generated a 40.1% hard contact rate, an encouraging number…provided he can make contact against Verlander.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/26 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians Can’t Cease Fire

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!

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9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Cleveland Indians at DylanCease

With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.

Oakland Athletics atSeattle Mariners

We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.

Houston Astros at JaimeBarria

The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks toConsider

Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.

New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.

9/26 DFS HittingCatcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2600)

Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.

9/26 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Matt Olson, OAK at SEA

DK (4,600) FD ($3,700)

My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.

9/26 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Aledmys Diaz, HOU at LAA

DK($4,100) FD ($2,900)

With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.

9/26 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

Matt Chapman, OAK at SEA

(DK $4,100) FD ($3,600)

Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.

9/26 DFSHitting Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU at LAA

DK ($2,600) FD ($2,000)

Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.

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9/26 DFS HittingOutfielders

Kyle Tucker, HOU at LAA

DK($4,800) FD ($2,900)

Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT

DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.

9/26 DFS Additional StackOptions:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)

2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)

3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)

OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/24 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Stacking Sox in the Texas Heat

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!

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9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.

Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.

Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600) FD($3,200)

Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900) FD ($4,000)

Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,700)

Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700) FD($3,000)

It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700) FD($3,800)

Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.

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9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,400)

He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)

2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)

OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/12 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Big Bats for Thursday

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

5 years ago 0 comments

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