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Yordan Alvarez

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/18 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/11 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/14 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/10 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues except a little light rain in the Windy City, and that wind is blowing in tonight.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,400)

With Gerrit Cole still looking lost a bit without his trusty sticky stuff, Buehler probably makes the most sense as the top ace on this small slate. While Cole does has another narrative at play here facing his former team — one that simply doesn’t strike out at normal human baseball team levels — Buehler is the largest favorite on the board and is the clear choice for cash games. Adam Strangis, in his must-read 7.10 Starting Rotation article, cites Buehler’s two appearances this season against a punchless D-Backs offense that resulted in 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and just six free passes. His MLB DFS upside isn’t nearly what we’ve come to expect from a top ace, but he’s the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Freddy Peralta ($9,900)

Peralta gets the nod for best GPP value because he’s under $10K, but if you need the added savings that bad, you could give Joe Musgrove a shot against the road Rockies, The thing I like about Peralta is his very steady K production, which helps give him a daily FD points projection of over 40 just about every game. The Reds do a good job of putting the ball into play, especially on the road, where the team K rate is a few percentage points lower than at home, but if Fab Finger Freddy can avoid the walks and the big blow, this should be a W and another 40-45 points. Musgrove will likely come in with higher ownership and makes more sense for MLB DFS on a site like DK, where you need to start two pitchers, and one can be very chalky.

Contrarian GPP Play: Patrick Sandoval ($7,700)

If you really want to see some savings at SP in large-field MLB DFS tourneys and stack up the big bats from the Dodgers, Brewers or other high-team-total offenses, you might have some interest in Sandoval, who’s made some adjustments to his pitch repertoire this season and carries a respectable 3.86/3.85 ERA/FIP combo into this matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB and give Sandoval the opportunity to not only eclipse his 25-30 point FD projection, but have a ceiling game in the 40-345 point range. He whiffed 10 Seattle batters in his last outing against the M’s and yielded just one walk and 2 ER en route to 46 FD points on June 6.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. CIN RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

While the Dodgers bats are simply too cheap, they don’t seem to match up well vs. LHP Caleb Smith, who shut them out in 6.0 IP last time out on June 18. The Brewers, on the other hand, get to face Gutierrez — who’s given up 25 hits and 11 BB over his last 25.1 IP. “Kind of Bad” Vlad has done okay against lefties so far this season, but he’s been abnormally lucky, as his xFIP splits (6.41 vs. LHB) tell a different story. Look to some combination of the first six (also pretty inexpensive) bats here: Luis Urias ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,400), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Omar Narvaez ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,100). Yelich and Narvaez would be my two-man core if I had to pick a couple bats to populate more of my MLB DFS builds.

Contrarian Stack #1: Houston Astros vs. NYY RHP Gerrit Cole

The Astros put the ball in play, and they’re at home against a pitcher who’s clearly not looking like his normal self. If they can get to him early, there’s massive GPP potential here in stacking some combination of these high-upside Houston bats, including: Jose Altuve ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) — who is 2-for-3 with two HR against Cole in his young career. I’m also willing to give a look to Martin Maldonado ($2,100) for some salary relief in a four-man stack that otherwise includes Altuve, Brantley and Alvarez. While it pains me to suggest stacking against my beloved Bombers on a short-handed slate, there just aren’t a ton of high-upside options to feast on tonight. I may have one Yankees stack as well, as Zack Greinke is long past his status as an MLB DFS ace.

Contrarian Stack #2: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI LHP Caleb Smith

We discussed how they’ve struggled against LHP and Smith this season, but they are very cheap compared to their usual salaries and the ownership shouldn’t be out of control since they aren’t the highest projected total on the board. Mookie Betts ($3,500) is probably the lowest we’ll see him all season, and there’s plenty of upside in the bats of Justin Turner ($3,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,700). I really like the direct cheap prices on Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Will Smith ($2,500) if they end dup in the lineup too.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/15 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some scattered T-storms in the Colorado vicinity tonight, so we’ll leave that game off our discussion since I don’t have to tell you to deploy bats in Coors if the game looks like it’ll play. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

We haven’t seen the Bauer ceiling game in a while, and I suspect this could be the night facing the offensively challenged Miami Marlins. There’s no need for a ton of analysis here in determining the top arm of this slate, as Carlos Rodon is an option, but was initially scheduled to start Thursday against the Twins and was pushed back after experiencing back and hamstring tightness. Add to that the prospect of some ugly weather in Chicago and he’s just not nearly as safe as Bauer — although there’s plenty of upside if that game plays without delay. I’ll let that determination fall to the weather watchers, but for me, it’s just easier to build around the chalky but upside-laden Bauer against a Marlins team that hits poorly on the road.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($8,600)

For two Saturdays in a row, I’m going to be using Anderson in the hopes he can avoid the big inning and settle down a little sooner than his previous start. The price has come up a bit (from $7,900) since last weekend, but Anderson’s opponent has a team total under 4 and he’s capable of striking out 8-10 batters. I’ll be using Bauer as my go to SP in most of my MLB DFS builds tonight, but Anderson makes plenty of sense on a relatively thin pitching slate without many “sure thing” candidates for 40+ fantasy points.

Contrarian GPP Value: Triston McKenzie

Domingo German might get a bit of ownership in MLB DFS tonight, as the Yankees take on the Orioles, but McKenzie is coming off his first win of the season on May 6, so he’s rested and ready. While the addition of Jarred Kelenic has added some firepower to the top of the Seattle batting order, the Mariners have a relatively high K rate (26.3% — tied with the Marlins) and there’s lots of upside at this price point for McKenzie — who’s tailor made for FanDuel scoring with his high walk (8.37 BB/9 in five starts) and K rates (12.93 per 9 IP). If he can keep the M’s off the bases and avoid the big fly, he should make value and get you the 30-40 FD points needed to pay off his meager $6,900 salary.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros vs. TEX RHP Dane Dunning

I actually like Dunning a bit in MLB DFS — he’s got swing-and-miss stuff and is coming off a career-high 10K performance against the Mariners on May 9 where he settled down his demons and got back to throwing his effective slider. Unfortunately, the Astros offense has just the kind of firepower and plate patience to make Dunning’s day a long one (or short one, if we’re being honest). The miniscule team K rate (18.7% — lowest in the majors) is a great indicator for stacking against pitchers like Dunning who rely heavily on the K to get outs. While Dunning has fared better against LHB in the small sample of 2021 so far, the Astros are littered with lefty mashers and righties who maintain high wOBA against RHP. Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is the highest-priced bat on Houston, but I’ll be looking closely at the red-hot Kyle Tucker ($3,400) as well as standard stackers Jose Altuve ($3,800), Alex Bregman ($3,700) and Michael Brantley ($3,100). In his last six games, Tucker has 3 HR, 10 hits and 9 RBI.

Value Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs. TOR LHP Anthony Kay

The Phillies offer a bit of a discount from the Astros, but the upside is almost as high facing a young lefty in a minor league park with a high ERA (Kay: 10.24, with a 5.59 FIP). Rhys Hoskins ($3,300), J.T., Realmuto ($3,400), Andrew McCutcheon ($3,200) and just about any other Phillies hitter — Jean Segura ($2,800), Alec Bohm ($2,400) stand out as solid value options — made sense last night and they do again today. I like a few stacks today (more on that later), but this could end up being a huge leverage play on a day where they might get lower ownership than expected.

Contrarian Stack: Washington Nationals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

It’s hard to justify them as a contrarian play after they went off for 17 runs in Arizona last night, but some folks might consider it chasing ands other s will be naturally drawn to the Astros, Phillies and teams like the Indians (also a decent contrarian stack or one-off spot for one-off RHB like Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield). But the Nats are just loaded with hitters who are heating up like Trea Turner ($3,900), Juan Soto ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,200), who has homers in consecutive games and went off for 40.4 FD points last night. Josh Bell ($3,000) and the underpriced Yan Gomes ($2,400) are solid options as well.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/8 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/30 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!

I hope you’ve enjoyed my MLB writeups this season, and make sure you check me out on Twitter and read my NFL and PGA musings at Win Daily Sports!

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10/30 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 7 – HoustonAstros at Washington Nationals, 8:08 p.m. EST

The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!

10/30 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.

Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.

Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.

In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.

Final thoughts about pitching:

It scares me to see Greinke’s fly ball rate at 38.9 this postseason,especially with his HR/FB rate at 23.8 percent.
Scherzer will NOT want to exit this game, so expect him to challengehitters early to keep his pitch count down, except for Alex Bregman, who hewill probably walk if he can get away with it.
Patrick Corbin may pitch in this game, but his price is too oppressivefor what will be limited work. I’m not going to get cute.
We haven’t seen Houston closer Roberto Osuna since Game 3 five daysago, so he’s somebody who we could focus on at just $4K.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/30 DFS Hitters

Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).

For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.

10/30 DFS WashingtonNationals bats

Trea Turner (DK$13,200/$8,800)

Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,100/$7,400)

Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.

Spotlight Value: AsdrubalCabrera (DK $9,900/$6,600)

Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.

More 10/30 DFS options:Anthony Rendon (DK $14,400/$9,600), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800), JuanSoto (DK $14,100/$9,400), whoever catches at whatever price.

10/30 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.

Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,500/$7,000)

I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?

George Springer (DK$14,400/$9,600)

Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,800/$7,200)

Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).

More 10/30 DFS options: Alex Bregman (DK $12,600/$8,400), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,000/$4,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,500/$5,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Main narrative – Houston win)

CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced& low-scoring w/ Gurriel 3-R HR)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Natswin a score-fest, Doolittle closes)

CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

10/30 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

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HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve

I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.

4 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/29 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The Astros can close out the World Series in six games tonight, and our 10/29 DFS picks for MLB will provide some GPP and cash game options to win big!

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10/29 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 6 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals put the Astros one run up at 4.0 to withthe Nats 3.0. With the total at 7, we could have some shares of SP and closers here.

10/29 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Feel free toperuse my pre-game notes on this matchup ahead of Game 2,especially if you need more information on starters Justin Verlander (DK $16,500/$11,000) and Stephen Strasburg (DK $16,200/$10,800).

These pitchersare evenly matched, and the matchup of these talented hurlers could be one toremember. But Verlander’s velocity is down a bit, and his slider command isn’t whatit was earlier in the season. The Astros ace has also given up six home runs inhis last four games (23.1 IP) to go along with 14 earned runs and 27 Ks. Despitehis recent vulnerability to the longball, he’s pitching to a 3.88 SIERA this postseason.

Verlander hasthrown over 100 pitches in four straight postseason games and will probablyreach that number again tonight in one of the biggest games of his life. Ithink he’s a lock for 15+ DK points with 30-point upside.

Strasburg hasdone a better job limiting damage and has, for the most part, kept opposinghitters in check this postseason, but he yielded seven hits to the Astros juggernautover 6 IP in Game 2. He’s thrown more pitches than Verlander in his past coupleoutings, with 117 against St. Louis in Game 3 of the NLCS and 114 in Game 2 of theWorld Series. He’s carrying a 1.93 ERA this postseason and an impressive 2.08SIERA with 40 Ks in five games (four stars and one three-inning reliefappearance in the NL Wild Card game).

I think Strasburg makes for a fine play in this game, based on his 40:2 K/BB ratio across 28 IP, and the fact that the only runs he allowed in Game 2 came in the first inning on a two-run home run by Alex Bregman.

There’s no way to fade either pitcher except on a hunch that the Natseven this thing up behind a classic performance by Strasburg. For every ten lineupsI make, I’ll include both pitchers in about four, count on one or the other infour more, and have two that are hitters only.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/29 DFS Hitters

Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley are my favoriteAstros bats, which is a problem because we can’t fit them without sacrificingpitching. Yordan Alvarez isn’t as cheap as Brantley, but he has more upside forhis HR power. For Washington, I’m focused on Juan Soto, Trea Turner and KurtSuzuki (hip flexor strain) – but only if he’s healthy enough to catch Strasburg.Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera make some sense, with Kendrick as apowerful RHB and Cabrera getting the nod for value.

10/29 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $13,500/$9,000)

I’m just going to keep playing him, even with the reduced pricingdaring me to do so and the chalky taste I’ll get in my mouth after plugging himin. He went yard on Sunday in Game 5 and remains the Nats hottest and besthitter this postseason. Soto now has a 125 wRC+ this postseason to go with 4HR, 12 RBI and a .268 ISO in 15 games. He’s hit two of those homers in this series,and I’m, not betting against a third.

Trea Turner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Turner got blanked in Game 5, but we’re going back to the well. He’s going to have more ABs than any other National in this game and he’s too good not to have some kind of impact in consecutive games. The power hasn’t been there this postseason, but the metrics say he’s still a good bet. Plus, Minute Maid park gives right-handed hitters a huge bump because of the increased RHB HR factor.

Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The BvP data against Verlander is terrible, (5-for-26 career with 0 HR and .077 IS), .230 wOBA) but it’s still a relatively small sample at 26 ABs. I’m leaning toward Kendrick because he’s a right-handed power hitter who’s come up in big spots during his postseason career.

Spotlight Value: Asdrubal Cabrera (DK $10,500/$7,000) and Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,600/$6,400)

Cabrera has decent numbers against Verlander and has seen him more than anybody on this team – over 30 times more than anybody, to be precise. He’s a professional hitter with plenty of gas in the tank and sneaky power. Don’t play Suzuki in too many lineups if he doesn’t start. I’ll have him in maybe one out of 10 if he doesn’t since he’s a better contact hitter than Gomes and they may need his bat during the desperation innings. If Suzuki doesn’t start, Yan Gomes is cheap and worth a look for his HR upside. Suzuki recently said he was feeling better but would reassess his availability for Game 6 on Tuesday morning.

Other 10/29 DFS options: Anthony Rendon (DK $14,700/$9,800), Adam Eaton (DK $10,800/$7,200), Victor Robles (DK $10,500/$7,000), Yan Gomes — if he starts (DK $6,900/$4,600)

10/29 DFS Houston Astros bats

Alex Bregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Blanked on Sunday,Bregman looks to get back on the home run train in Game 6, as the even-numberedgames have yielded dingers in this World Series. That funky numerology aside,he’s the best hitter on the Astros and he’s not going to break your bank if youplug him in at captain. That’s where I’ll want him tonight.

Jose Altuve (DK $14,100/$9,400)

Altuve doesn’t have any homers in this World Series yet, but hedoes have eight hits in the last four games. I’ll have plenty of shares, evenas the team’s second most expensive hitter. George Springer is a good play too,but he’s a few more dollars and it’s hard to fit both.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

He’s heating up and can go back to his comfort zone at DH in Game6. The matchup is a difficult one, but the more he sees Strasburg, the better.I’ll have some shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($11,700/$7,800)

Brantley is getting a lot of hits and provides the best value onthe Astros team. He’s yet to be flummoxed by the opposing pitchers, and hasjust one strikeout in the entire series – a truly remarkable numbers in today’s“three true outcomes” game. For the guy who puts it in play more than anybodyelse in Houston, I’m buying.

Other 10/29 DFS options: George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,100/$7,400), Carlos Correa (DK $12,000/$8,000), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos ($9,300/$6,200)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Contrarianw/Brantley up top)

CPT – M. Brantley ($11,700)

UTIL – S. Strasburg ($10,800)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gomes ($7,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Bregman CPT w/ Verlander UTIL)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,800)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,000

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($6,200)

UTIL – Y. Gomes ($4,600)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Suzukiplays, Nats dominate)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($16,200)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($8,700)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,000)

10/29 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,000)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Kendrick ($4,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,000)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Alvarez ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto ($8,000)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,500)

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HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel

These guys all have power and this park is a good hitters park for RHBs. Soto is a lefty but red hot at the plate, and getting one dinger among these three is nearly a lock.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/25 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.

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10/25 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 3 – Houston Astros at WashingtonNationals, 8:07 p.m. EST

Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.

10/25 DFS SP Strategy and Game Notes

Zack Greinke ($15,900/$10,600)

Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.

Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.

Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.

Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.

One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.

Anibal Sánchez ($13,800/$9,200)

Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.

We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.

Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.

If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.

Here’s what I’ll be doing:

Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.

Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.

10/25 DFS Hitters

I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.

NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup

10/25 DFS Washington Nationals bats

AnthonyRendon (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.

JuanSoto (DK $15,000/$10,000)

Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.

HowieKendrick (DK $13,800/$9,200)

If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.

SpotlightValue: Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800) and Adam Eaton (DK $11,400/$7,600)

We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.

Other10/25 DFS options: Trea Turner (DK $14,100/$9,400), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $10,500/$7,000),Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,900/$6,600)

10/25 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,500/$9,000)

We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.

SpotlightValue: Yuri Gurriel ($11,700/$7,800)

Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.

NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.

Other 10/25 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $12,300/$8,200), George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK GPP lineup #1 (w/Greinke)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced w/no pitchers)

CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #3 (w/ Greinke and Houston closer)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup #4 (Nats w/Sanchez and Doolittle)

CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)

UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

10/25 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!

SampleFD GPP lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)

SampleFD GPP lineup #2 (Nats-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)

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Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Home Run Derby: Gurriel, Soto and Bregman

Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/23 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The World Series continuestonight in Houston after a big win from the Nats – so check out our 10/23 DFSpicks for MLB at Win Daily Sports.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/23 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 2 – Washington Nationals atHouston Astros, 8:07 p.m. EST

10/23 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Last night’s top Showdown entries had Max Scherzer, but noGerrit Cole, as the Houston ace struggled to put way batters, gave up five ERand notched just six Ks. It also had Sean Doolittle, so my lineups with Coleand Osuna yesterday were on the right track – I just had the wrong winning team.

Stephen Strasburg’s postseason numbers are almost asridiculous as Cole’s were heading into last night’s matchup, so I’ll considerhim the analog to Cole’s 1A yesterday. The Nationals hurler has less than one-quarterof the postseason experience that Justin Verlander does, and his metrics in thatmuch smaller sample are superior:

Strasburg: 1.10 ERA, 2.07 SIERA, 12.51 K/9,1.10 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 35.6 K% (41.0 IP)
Verlander: 3.26 ERS, 3.09 SIERA, 9.98 K/9, 2.75BB/9, 1.03 WHIP, 27.8 K% (176.2 IP)

We’ll have shares of both in our lineup builds, though I’llbe taking more Strasburg in cash games given Verlander’s propensity to serve upthe long ball:

Verlander has a career postseason 1.17 HR/9 and0.93 for his entire career
Strasburg has a career postseason 0.44 HR/9 and0.89 for his entire career

I still think playingboth in cash games is viable, and I’ll shift more GPP ownership to Verlander.

Morenotes:

Verlander has faced these Nats hitters 274times and yielded just 4 homers to them, posting a .248/.306/.365 slash, withAsdrubal Cabrera having the most experience and success (21-for-76 with 3 HR).
The Astros are again about one-run favoriteswith an implied total of about 4.0 to the Nats’ 3.0. Last night’s game finishedtwo runs over the projected total (one for each team, but reversed), so it’snot worth throwing these numbers out just yet.
Once again, stay tuned to the starting lineups– we could get some value from unlikely sources.

10/23 DFS Hitters

We’ll stick to the overall theme of the playoffs here, as that seemed to play out last night save for the solo shot by Ryan Zimmerman and the better plate approach from Yordan Alvarez, which we can get behind a bit more here. My player writeups for yesterday were a bit long because it was Game 1, so I’ll stick to one key thought for each player here and you can refer back to my previous writeup if you need more info.

10/23 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Rendon has not faced Verlander before and is still a dangerous batin the heart of a solid lineup. We have to consider him, especially since he’sbeen quiet and has no trouble hitting RHPs. His price jumped $200 too (because theSPs don’t cost as much), so he’s definitely in play for GPPs.

TreaTurner (DK $13,500/$9000)

My writeup on Turner wasspot-on yesterday and it applies again today. If he’s on base, he’s in business.And he does have power (.200 ISO in 2019). I’ll have shares, though maybe notas much as last night.

JuanSoto (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Again – the analysis wassolid, but I didn’t trust him enough to warrant the top captain spot in my GPPbuilds. He’s a hitter who thrives on confidence, but his ownership will bethrough the roof for Game 2. You’ll need some shares, just don’t go overboard.

SpotlightValue: Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,300/$6,200)

Last night’s valuespotlight didn’t play, but his replacement did, and he hit a homer. Tonight, werun the same risk if they decide to roll out Yan Gomes instead of Suzuki – who’s14-for-42 career off Verlander with just 4 Ks – a stat which stuck out as muchas any considering Verlander’s 24.7% career K rate.

Other options: Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600), Adam Eaton (DK $10,500/$7,000), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800)

10/23 DFS Houston Astros bats

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve ended up 1-for-5last night and still reached double digit points on DK, so a multi-hit gamemakes him worthy of usage in our builds, and consideration as the main hitterfor our Astros-heavy lineups. He’s 2-for-5 off Strasburg in his career, whichain’t much – but it’s a start.

AlexBregman (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The guy is due. Bregman took a gift pitch from Sean Doolittle right over the heart of the plate yesterday because he was overthinking location and looking away – and he’ll likely not make that same mistake again. I trust his bat and his approach, so we’re going back to the well with him against Strasburg (2-for-3 career).

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

I’m fully aboard the Alvarez redemption train, as theyoung slugger went 2-for-3 in Game 1 and could easily break through with adinger tonight. He did hit 27 in 357 ABs during the regular season, and he’s beenon a homerless slump for far too long.

CarlosCorrea (DK $12,000/$8,000)

Correa was one of the fewAstros that actually looked overmatched by Scherzer last night (1-for-5, 3 Ks),even though the Nats’ pitcher didn’t have his best stuff. It’s possibly hisback was bothering him a bit, so I’m going to reduce my shares, which weremassive for Game 1.

SpotlightValue: Robinson Chirinos (DK $7,500/$5,000)

It’s catcher day in Game 2 of the World Series. Thevalue is there, and the guy has plenty of power (18 HRs in 388 ABs in 2019).Catchers also have a knack for hitting mistake pitches very well, and Strasburgdoes make mistakes.

Other 10/23 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,700/$7,800), George Springer (DK $13,800/$9,200), Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK Cash or GPP lineup (Strasburg up top, no Verlander – $700 left)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($15,900)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($5,400)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP lineup (Verlander up top, no Strasburg)

CPT – J. Verlander ($17,100)

UTIL – Bregman ($9,400)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez ($8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston heavy with $500 left)

CPT – Y. Alvarez ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos (5,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (Houston-heavy with $2,100 left)

CPT – A. Bregman ($14,100)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,600)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez (8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (No pitchers)

CPT – J. Soto ($13,200)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

10/23 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon hitters and try to find the bombs in the MVP and All-Star spot.

SampleFD lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Altuve($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Alvarez($6,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

SampleFD lineup #2 (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Rendon($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera($6,000)

Sample FD lineup #3 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Springer ($8,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

UTIL – Zimmerman ($5,000)

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Pick the Players for Most Fantasy Points — Goal: 19.50, Prize: 5x

Springer, Soto and Altuve

We hit on the 2x bet with the Soto HR last night and tonight were going back to the well with him and couple of hot-hitting, speedy Astros. Making 20 fantasy points among the three seems like a great wager at 5x, so lets go for it!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

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