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Welcome everyone to The Houston Open Final Ownership Projections, this week we travel to Houston with a less than top end field for a course that is in plain words, tough. This isn’t your normal resort course, 7400 yards plus and a par 70, I guarantee there won’t be a -20 take this tourney down, please check in Discord later tonight for weather, winds that are possible, also for late steam plays that can boost your roster, and any other late breaking info that gives you an edge over the contest field of players.

Last night the power titans of the golf world, Sia, Joel and Spencer, (there is no truth to the rumor Spencer helped Einstein with the theory of relativity, but then again, I’ve never seen both of them in the same room together) and in the first 90 seconds there was a spirited conversation about Tracy McGrady and Vince Young, who is a cousin of McGrady’s and a damn good player in his own right. They were talking about The Houston Rockets who probably haven’t picked up a golf club in a while. For those of you who have been on this good earth for a while you may remember a fraternity in Houston called Phi Slamma Jamma, featuring Akeem “the dream” Olajuwan, Clyde “the glide” Drexler, Benny and Andrews, they beat Memphis in a national semifinal by 40 points with over 30 dunks in that game. I was at the Drum in Albuquerque when Lorenzo broke our hearts and Jimmy V led NC State to the national title, that one game haunted me for over a year. Who’s your team that almost made it that you still think of ? Let us know in Discord.

Sia gave an open invitation to Mr. Theegala to join the show, and he listed what all they have in common, although saying one of Theegala’s relatives was a farmer, and Sia having an account at Farmers State Bank is a bit of a stretch. I was stationed in Karachi and Lahore during my tours in the Marines, (today is their 246th birthday) and one of the four languages I was taught is Urdu, which is Mr. Theegala’s home language, so we could add that. I’m certain I could ask him if he would like some tea, or perhaps buy a giant tractor, my artistry of the language has faded with my years, but perhaps the fact that there is an obscure connection to Australia will get him on the show. He is an up and coming superstar in the making.

While all of these OG NBA stars are now retired and may play golf on the weekends, your Win Daily Sports golf staff has been combing the stats since last Saturday to bring you some players offering value and an edge to make your screens go green for The Houston Open.

The ownership projections are another key tool to help you with your roster construction to beat the field. Lets take a look at the numbers for The Houston Open.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Burns, Sam21.211100
Gooch, Talor20.89300
Wise, Aaron19.99200
Im, Sungjae16.110700
Smith, Cameron15.110200
Scott,Adam14.89600
Lowry, Shane14.58200
Koepka, Brooks14.49900
Power, Seamus13.98400
Wolff, Mathew13.310400
Varner III, Harold12.67700
McNealy, Maverick12.38500
Scheffler, Scottie12.210900
Pereira, Mito12.17700
Leishman, Marc11.38700
List, Luke11.26900
Niemann, Joaquin10.79500
Hoffman, Charley10.47300
Finau, Tony10.210600
Vegas, Jhonattan10.27500
Henley, Russell9.88900
Hatton, Tyrrell9.610000
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan9.48600
Hughes, Mackenzie9.47900
Ramey, Chad9.27500
Pendrith, Taylor 9.07200
Palmer, Ryan8.67100
Mitchell, Keith8.57000
Reed, Patrick8.49000
Kokrak, Jason7.88800
Woodland, Gary7.57600
Tringale, Cameron7.48300
Griffin, Lanto7.48100
Grace, Branden6.67600
Swafford, Hudson6.46800
McCarthy, Denny6.26600
Day, Jason6.17400
Poulter, Ian6.17300
Dufner, Jason5.86300
Straka, Sepp5.76700
Norlander, Henrik5.67000
Van Rooyen, Erik5.27800
Higgs, Harry5.27100
Knox, Russell5.26900
Pan, CT5.07300
Homa, Max4.98000
Dahmen, Joel4.97000
Theegala, Sahith4.86900
Long, Adam4.86800
Laird, Martin4.37000
Schenk, Adam4.27000
Davis, Cameron3.87400
Munoz, Sebastian3.87400
Willett, Danny3.87200
Hoge, Tom3.86900
Hahn, James3.66800
Bramlett, Joseph3.46200
Reavie, Chez3.27200
Perez, Pat3.26800
Streelman, Kevin3.07500
Svensson, Adam3.06300
Barjon, Paul2.96000
Cink, Stewart2.76900
Stanley, Kyle2.76300
Moore, Taylor2.67100
Mullinax, Trey2.66200
Stuard, Brian2.46700
Clark, Wyndham2.46600
Hagy, Brandon2.46400
Ryder, Sam2.46300
Walker, Jimmy2.46100
Lebioda, Hank2.36400
Piercy, Scott2.16700
Van Der Walt, Dawie2.16100
Westwood, Lee2.07000
Rai, Aaron2.06900
Spaun, JJ1.96800
Frittelli, Dylan1.96600
Watney, Nick1.96200
Harman, Brian1.67100
Molinari, Francesco1.66600
Snedeker, Brandt1.66500
NeSmith, Matthew1.66500
Sloan, Roger1.66300
Riley, Davis 1.46500
Poston,  JT1.46300
Hadley, Chesson1.46200
Stenson, Henrik1.26700
Whaley, Vincent1.26400
Landry ,Andrew1.16400
Stallings, Scott1.06800
Jaeger, Stephan 1.06700
Lashley, Nate1.06500
Burgoon, Bronson1.06200
Putnam, Andrew0.96500
Hickok, Kramer0.96100
Huh, John0.96800
Sigg, Greyson 0.86700
Uihlein, Peter0.86400
Schwab, Matthias 0.77200
Hodges, Lee 0.76500
Kang, Sung0.76200
Johnson, Zack0.76100
Duncan, Tyler0.66300
Herman, Jim0.66100
Tway, Kevin0.66100
Sisk, Cameron (a)0.66000
Taylor, Nick0.56600
Lahiri, Anirban0.56500
Lipsky, David0.56400
Noh, Seung-Yul0.56000
McGreevy, Max0.46700
Redman, Doc0.46600
McDowell, Graeme0.46200
Kraft, Kelly0.46000
Mendez, Gilbert0.46000
Arendell, Connor0.46000
Streb, Robert0.36600
Garnett, Brice0.36400
Koepka, Chase0.36000
Silverman, Ben0.36500
Bae, Sangmoon 0.36200
Daffue, Matthys 0.26200
McCumber, Tyler0.26100
Stefani, Shawn0.26000
Cazaubon, Rodolfo0.26100
Malnati, Peter0.16100
Gay, Brian0.16100
Haas, Bill0.16000
Trainer, Martin0.16000
Werenski, Richy0.16000
Stroud, Chris0.06000

These final ownership figures for The Houston Open are accurate as of 17:17 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for The Houston Open

Top Tier: Smith, IM

Mid Tier: Power, McNealy

Low Tier: Hoffman, Hoge

Out in Left Play: C T Pan

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing The Houston Open Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 9 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a MONSTER Week 8, let’s roll right into another juicy slate!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

LAC/PHI
MIN/BAL

GB/KC
HOU/MIA

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

Herbert season is officially back for me this week despite the let-down in Week 8 when New England completely took the air out of the ball and ran it down the Chargers’ throat. Honestly, every team should adapt that same game-plan against this putrid Chargers’ run defense, but I don’t see Nick Sirianni sticking to a run game in a game that will be high in pace and back and forth in scoring. Justin Herbert grades number one in the AETY Model in expected passing yards this weekend and he also offers us significant leverage on the 35% ownership tag on running back Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler can certainly have a great game here… I’m not saying you should fade him, but if his production comes via the pass like it usually does, Herbert will correlate well with that ownership on Ekeler. If the Chargers can get ahead early, this gamescript is going to bode well for a shootout and I’m all for it with Justin Herbert projected for 3-5% ownership. You can make a sexy game-stack with some of the pairings/run-backs below.

Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams
Key Run-back(s): Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, Kenneth Gainwell (yes, the guy 30% of the field played last week, lol. Now is the time to play him at 1% ownership in a gamescript that doesn’t include Philadelphia being up by 40 points).

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)

I’m not in love with Mahomes this week but I’ll always go heavily overweight on Patrick Mahomes when he’s under 10% in ownership projection. The reason I do not love this spot as much as I want to is due to the Packers’ incredibly low pace of play… with Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers now out, I cannot imagine they speed up the offense whatsoever as they lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Having said that, I just can’t envision a world where Mahomes doesn’t light the world on fire in this matchup and declare on the FOX Game of the Week that the Chiefs’ offense is just fine.

Key Pairing(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams
Key Run-back(s): Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams

Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 / $6,900 FD)

Likely a DraftKings ONLY play for me, but Tyrod Taylor is returning under center for the Houston Texans to take on Miami and their 26th ranked passing defense. It’s absolutely gross, but a semi-dual-threat quarterback at $5K against a terrible defense (and a game with a relatively high total) is something I’m interested in this week. I personally will be pairing him with Nico Collins and using a Miami run-back due to the lack of defense on both sides of the field this week. If you can stomach that build, you can afford the world in the rest of your lineup.

Key Pairing(s): Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks
Key Run-back(s): Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)

Dalvin Cook grades out as the third best running back in Week 9 on the AETY Model and will be a massive focal point of this Vikings’ offense as they try to keep Lamar Jackson off of the field. In a game with the highest total on the slate and the highest owned quarterback on the slate (Lamar Jackson), why does no one want to play Dalvin Cook on the other side? Baltimore’s running defense is nothing like it used to be.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

There’s no leverage in this play at all as he’s likely the highest owned running back and yes, usually I never write about the high-chalk players in this article, but for clarity, Ezekiel Elliott is my highest rostered player in Week 9. I’m in love with this matchup against a Denver team that appears to have thrown in the surrender towel. In addition, La’el Collins returns to the Dallas offensive line… let’s roll.

Contrarian Values:

Zack Moss
Devontae Booker
Kenneth Gainwell

A.J. Dillon
Darrel Williams
Eli Mitchell
(if Jeff Wilson is inactive)

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) / Adam Thielen ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

Extremely affordable on FanDuel but still in play on DraftKings. Similar to the Dalvin Cook write-up, NO ONE is playing Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. The Baltimore secondary is trash and currently grades 23rd in pass defense DVOA. I usually prefer to focus on Thielen against man coverage (Baltimore’s tendency) and Jefferson against zone coverage, but they’re both in an excellent gamescript at borderline zero ownership.

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Like Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just adding Keenan Allen in the article for the transparency. Allen is a core play for me this weekend as I always pick on the inside of the Philadelphia secondary. He makes a perfect pairing for my favorite GPP quarterback in Justin Herbert and grades out as a top-six value in the AETY Model.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Hello, Mr. Jerry Jeudy. We’re going to pray on the recency bias of DFS players and go at Jerry Jeudy the week after he was 15-20% owned and let down the DFS community. The best part of this play is that he correlates perfectly on the other side of my love for Ezekiel Elliott and also is massive leverage over a 40% owned Broncos tight-end, Albert “O” chalk week.

I’m not saying Albert “O” is a bad play by any means, but if you can find a way to pivot to Jerry Jeudy on the other side of your Elliott builds, you’re not going to regret it. Jourdan Lewis is one of the weaker spots on this Dallas defense and look for Teddy Bridgewater to use the middle of the field a lot on Sunday as they play catch-up. As much as Noah Fant helps Albert “O”, this is still a significant bump up to Jerry Jeudy at 2-5% ownership… Leverage City!

Honorable Mention: Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel

Tight Ends

Honestly, my tight-end pool is directly from the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown. My priorities in GPP would go as follows:

  • Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
  • Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
  • Darren Waller ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
  • Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
  • Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

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Welcome everyone to the Something Mayakoba Championship Final Ownership Projections, this week we travel to Mexico for a pretty stout field, finally. I was having a hard time finding names that were longer than usual and only had one vowel in them. The pricing is a bit easier but the contest selection is abysmal. DK makes enough money to support the fall season of the PGA, saying its due to Covid, more sport available THIS year, etc. doesn’t answer the question of why the selection and amounts are extremely small. I know all of our Win Daily Sports family does a lot to support DK, they should respond in kind.

It looks like Ancer and Wise along with Hovland are going to be popular, there are excellent articles out by the golf staff if your looking for pivots or ways to be different from the rest of the herd.

Last nights podcast was hopping, the PGA tout was a guest along with industry titans Sia, Joel and Spencer, who sounds like he could describe the theory of relativity while quoting every single golf stat known to man. Just recently the government almost shut down because of reaching the debt limit, after negotiating with Joel, the country got a loan and all is well. Sia sits back and quietly picks the first round leader and his infamous Secret Weapon (dun dun dun) all the time. These guys are very very smart when it comes to golf. I’m not sure about their ranking of Halloween candy though. I didn’t participate because 100 grand bars weren’t on the list, if you’ve had one, you know what I’m talking about.

One of last nights really cool questions was what is your favorite band that is under appreciated or perhaps not that well known. My answer to that is The E Street Band. Back in the early seventies a man was on his way to start for the Cleveland Browns at guard, he was big, 6’9” and 280, (in todays freakish world he would be considered a thick defensive safety) and on his way to Cleveland he was in a car wreck and tore up his knee. He then decided to play saxophone along with little Steven Van Zandt (the Sopranos) Garry Talent, Danny Federici, and Max Weinburg (The Late Show). His name was Clarence “Big Man” Clemons. Of course they had a front man who wasn’t too bad, his name was Bruce Springsteen, aka “The Boss”. 4 hour shows, non stop rock and roll, insanity on stage. I’ve witnessed them live 38 times, there is no better live act anywhere. Both Bruce and the band are in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, they have sold over 300 million records worldwide and yesterday Sony announced they were trying to buy the entire music catalogue of the Boss and E Street. They bought Bob Dylan’s entire catalogue for 400 million. They offered Bruce and the band 1.1 billion, they may need to bump that a bit. Download “Because the Night” or watch it on you tube, they play so hard and so fast you can see the drummers riser jumping up and down as you watch him frantically try to keep the beat with the foot pedal. Trust me, you’ll come away thinking how could they do that ? That’s what I’ve been asking for over forty years now. Let us know in Discord who your underappreciated band is.

Lets get back to golf so you can takedown a contest and pay that 5 grand to a scalper for front row center seats for your favorite group. (It’s worth every penny.)

The ownership projections are another key tool to help you with your roster construction to beat the field. Lets take a look at the numbers for the Something Mayakoba Championship.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Hovland, Viktor23.010900
Ancer, Abraham21.410700
Henley, Russell21.18200
Thomas, Justin19.911200
Pereira, Mito17.68100
Wise, Aaron16.99600
Niemann, Joaquin16.77800
Fitzpatrick, Mathew15.58800
Finau, Tony15.510600
Gooch, Talor15.49000
Grillo, Emiliano13.37500
Scheffler, Scottie12.89900
Varner III, Harold12.37400
Horschel, Billy11.810100
Streelman, Kevin11.87200
Tringale, Cameron11.78900
McNealy, Maverick11.78500
Zalatoris,Will11.39100
Reed, Patrick11.29500
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan11.08000
Knox, Russell10.47300
Dahmen, Joel10.37000
Bradley, Keegan9.68300
Koepka, Brooks9.310000
Vegas, Jhonattan9.07400
Hatton, Tyrrell8.910300
Ortiz, Carlos8.77600
Kirk, Chris8.46700
Lowry, Shane8.49300
Wolff, Mathew7.89200
Fowler, Rickie7.68600
Power, Seamus7.37700
Garcia, Sergio7.28700
Poulter, Ian7.17500
Todd, Brendon6.67100
Hadwin, Adam6.67300
Rose, Justin6.67900
Reavie, Chez6.46600
Pan, CT6.47300
Woodland, Gary6.47600
Harman, Brian6.37300
Noren, Alex6.08400
Rodgers, Patrick5.87400
Steele, Brendan4.77000
Garnett, Brice4.16500
Perez, Pat4.17200
Norlander, Henrik4.17000
Hoge, Tom3.96900
Hoffman, Charley3.97700
Migliozzi, Guido3.86900
Long, Adam3.77000
Herbert, Lucas 3.47400
Lee, Danny3.16900
Sabbatini, Rory3.06700
Howell III, Charlie2.96900
Stallings, Scott2.97000
Mitchell, Keith2.86800
Pendrith, Taylor 2.87200
Kucher, Matt2.57200
Jones, Matt2.57000
List, Luke2.37100
Kizzire, Patton2.16800
McDowell, Graeme2.16600
Stanley, Kyle1.96300
Ghim, Doug1.96600
Merritt, Troy1.96800
Jaeger, Stephan 1.96800
Schenk, Adam1.97100
Swafford, Hudson1.96300
Higgo, Garrick1.96700
Stuard, Brian1.86300
Moore, Ryan1.86700
Laird, Martin1.86500
Duncan, Tyler1.76400
Palmer, Ryan1.76900
Rai, Aaron1.66700
Stenson, Henrik1.67100
Willett, Danny1.66800
Molinari, Francesco1.56600
Detry,Thomas 1.56600
Lashley, Nate1.46500
Whaley, Vincent1.46700
Frittelli, Dylan1.36800
Piercy, Scott1.26900
McCarthy, Denny1.26200
Huh, John1.16100
Hickok, Kramer1.16200
Hahn, James1.16400
Ryder, Sam1.16500
Werenski, Richy1.06100
Thompson, Michael0.96100
Svensson, Adam0.96300
Lebioda, Hank0.96200
Villegas, Camilo0.96300
Bramlett, Joseph0.96400
Gay, Brian0.96200
Putnam, Andrew0.86500
Spaun, JJ0.86500
Poston,  JT0.86400
Riley, Davis 0.86500
Malnati, Peter0.86400
Watney, Nick0.86100
Johnson, Zack0.76200
Straka, Sepp0.76100
Mullinax, Trey0.76100
Sigg, Greyson 0.66600
Lahiri, Anirban0.66100
Taylor, Nick0.66200
Kang, Sung0.66300
Redman, Doc0.56300
Schwartzel, Charl0.56400
Chacarra, Eugenio (a)0.56000
Walker, Jimmy0.56600
Lipsky, David0.56600
Sloan, Roger0.46400
Snedeker, Brandt0.46200
Landry ,Andrew0.46200
Kraft, Kelly0.36000
Thompson, Curtis0.36100
Donald, Luke0.26100
Tway, Kevin0.26000
Blixt, Jonas0.26000
Diaz, Roberto0.16000
Haas, Bill0.16000
Mack III, Willie0.16000
Benitez, Juan Carlos0.16000
Trainer, Martin0.16000
Fernandez, JD0.16000
Thornberry, Braden0.16000
Novak, Andrew0.16100
Del Val, Samuel0.06000
Aguado, Camilo0.06000

These final ownership figures for The Something Mayakoba Championship are accurate as of 18:07 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the Something Mayakoba Championship

Top Tier: Finau

Mid Tier: Tringale, Henley

Low Tier: Harman, Bradley, Streelman

Out in Left Play: Keith Mitchell

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the Something Mayakoba Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

We are so glad that Antonio is out of the hospital and recovering at home, I knew those short ribs of Jasons looked awful suspicious.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 8 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

TEN/IND
CAR/ATL

PHI/DET
NE/LAC
TB/NO

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)

Next to Tom Brady and the Bucs, the AETY Model projects Herbert and the Chargers to continue to play their up-paced, pass-heavy offense with a total of 40 pass attempts. Volume is king. In my opinion, Herbert is the second best quarterback on this slate (behind Josh Allen) and looks to be coming in around 5% in total ownership. With Austin Ekeler banged up (if he even plays), the Chargers will need to lean on Herbert and these talented pass catchers to win a tight-projected game at home against the Patriots.

Carson Wentz ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Surprisingly, the highest total on this slate features two of the heavier run-offenses in the NFL with the Titans at Colts (total of 51) but the AETY Model agrees that this game has a lot of touchdown equity and potential for a solid pace. Wentz has starting to come on lately and the Colts’ offensive line appears to be 100% healthy and you know I always find an angle to pick on the Titans’ secondary, so here we go Carson.

I’m still skeptical this game turns quite run heavy and the clock dwindles, but going with Wentz offers me a lot of savings for the rest of my build, especially if you stack him with Michael Pittman who’s priced like a fringe WR2.

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,900 DK / $10,500 FD)

King Henry under 10% in ownership and under $9K in salary on DraftKings? What a time to be alive. The Colts’ run defense grades #1 in run defense DVOA but just gave up over 100-yards on the ground to Eli Mitchell. It’s not the tastiest of matchups, but it’s a 10% owned Derrick Henry at an affordable price-tag in a matchup with the highest total on the slate.

Nick Chubb ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Nick Chubb is going to be under 4% in total ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings this weekend despite no Kareem Hunt to take away significant snaps and more importantly, offensive tackle Jack Conklin is back. This Browns’ offensive line is the best in the business and 100% healthy for the first time since Week 1… when Chubb went for over 100 all-purpose yards and two scores (with Kareem Hunt playing over 47% of the snaps). Light it up, Nick Chubb!

Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

As you noticed in the Cash Game Checkdown, I’m locking in Eli Mitchell. Simply way too cheap and offers me many different avenues to roster the studs being wrote up in this article.

Honorable Mention: Damien Harris, Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Absurdly priced on FanDuel and likely to be insane chalk (for good reason), but on DraftKings, I’m making it a priority to play Diggs in lineups that I can afford him as he’s coming in under 10% in ownership. Stefon Diggs is a route-running extraordinaire and should be primed up for his first blow-up game of 2021 at home against the Miami Dolphins’ man-coverage.

DJ Moore ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

What more do we need to see from Atlanta’s 30th ranked pass defense (DVOA)? They consistently get torched and this is a perfect buy-back spot for Moore who has one of the highest expected target shares in the NFL. Like most weeks, this game against the Falcons has significant shootout potential.

Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

I’ll go back to the well on my boy Keenan Allen to pair with one of my favorite quarterbacks on the slate, Justin Herbert. If this game plays at a high pace, this is an excellent price for a low-owned Keenan Allen who should have his way with Jalen Mills on the inside of the New England secondary.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD)

As much as everyone loves this Philadelphia/Detroit matchup, no one is talking about pass catchers for Detroit other than D’Andre Swift. I personally wish Kalif Raymond was a bit cheaper on DraftKings like he is on FanDuel, but I simply can’t afford him on most DraftKings builds.

St. Brown is going to be my Hail Mary, 1% owned wide receiver who offers my builds a lot of value to pay up elsewhere. While no one is likely to go back to the rookie slot receiver after a zero-target game last week, I’m confident this is a big time spot for St. Brown (who has averaged a 70% snap share over the past four weeks) against the inside of the Philadelphia secondary.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson, Kalif Raymond, Laviska Shenault, Tre’Quan Smith

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)

It’s a bit of a nasty tight-end slate and as much as I love Kyle Pitts, my main focus this week inside the numbers is T.J. Hockenson. Again, as much as the DFS community loves this game and hosts most of the chalk players on the slate, no one is talking about any Detroit Lions outside of Swift. Other thank Kyle Pitts, Hockenson is the only tight-end the AETY Model projects for over a 20% target share and 25% red-zone share.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Jared Cook, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

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Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.


In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (20%), Darrell Henderson Jr (40%), Kenneth Gainwell (25%), James Robinson (20%), Chris Godwin (25%), Brandin Cooks (20%), Cooper Kupp (20%), Calvin Ridley (20%), Dallas Goedert (30%)
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)

On a slate with no Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, the top-tier starts and ends with Josh Allen (honorable mention, Justin Herbert). The Buffalo Bills rank third on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, 10th in passing offense efficiency, and first on the slate in implied team totals. Miami’s secondary has struggled this season and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA… there’s simply no safer play at the quarterback position than Josh Allen.

Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

On DraftKings, if you need the savings, pivot down to the Week 8 NFL DFS chalk quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The Detroit defense is dreadful, grading 27th in overall defense DVOA and with no Miles Sanders, we should see a bit more rushing than we usually do from Jalen Hurts (he rushes a lot as is). It doesn’t matter what Hurts does with his arm, this dude always finds a way to ~25 fantasy points and that should continue this week in what should be a back and forth game with Detroit.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Swift is an absolute stud and truthfully, I was a bit down on him heading into season-long drafts this summer. Boy, was I wrong. His usage is through the roof and trails T.J. Hockenson by one total target for the team lead in the passing game. The thing I like about Swift the most is the slight increase in usage on the ground. What started as a (give or take) 55/45 split in favor of Jamaal Williams has now turned in favor of D’Andre Swift. Detroit knows they have to give this kid the ball early and often if they want to win a football game. Look for Swift to do damage in this higher-total game against Philadelphia and their 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Henderson was a bit of a let-down last week as the stone-chalk running back on the slate but, despite a negative early gamescript, he still had 18 total touches. Henderson is in a prime bounce-back spot here against Houston and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA) as a 15-point favorite.

Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Way too cheap for a lead running back in one of the more efficient running schemes in the NFL. I’ll likely be pressing the lock-button on Mitchell in all forms of NFL DFS in Week 8 as the 49ers visit a Bears team without Khalil Mack and possibly Akiem Hicks.

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD)

Personally, I don’t see my build allowing me to fit Cooper Kupp and that scares the hell out of me. What more do we need to see out of Kupp before we just lock him in each week? I’d like to believe he’ll come crashing down to earth, especially at the $9K price-point, but I totally understand if your first move is to lock-in Kupp and then start building.

Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD)

With Antonio Brown doubtful for this game, let’s give another look at Chris Godwin who will be the main target in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL. This is a tougher matchup, but an expected 29% target share with no Brown in the lineup and a matchup on the inside against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a great spot to invest.

DeVonta Smith ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD)

It’s clear that DeVonta Smith is by far the number one target in the Eagles’ passing attack. We’re getting a number one wideout at mid-tier, WR2 pricing in a cake matchup. This game is going to be a favorite for DFS players this weekend and that should start with DeVonta Smith or D’Andre Swift.

A.J. Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,600 FD)

Over the past three games, A.J. Brown has surpassed a 30% target share… volume is king in NFL DFS cash games and there’s not many on this slate who have the volume and big play ability A.J. Brown has on a weekly basis. Julio Jones is OUT and Derrick Henry is likely to still get his 20 touches, but the Colts grade first in run defense DVOA. Brown is in an excellent spot to continue his hot streak against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins

Tight Ends

The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.

Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Values: Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) / T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) / Jared Cook ($3,400 DK ONLY)

Punt: Dan Arnold ($2,800 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Cincinatti Bengals

Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Football Team

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Welcome everyone to the Bermuda Championship Final Ownership Projections, this week we travel to Bermuda for a 127 man field. The pricing is steep for journeyman golfers due to a lack of star power for this event which means there is value to be had with the right players regardless of pricing.

Last years winner, Bryan Gay was supposed to leave Monday morning for Port Royal along with another unnamed golfer, when they got on the plane they sat on the tarmac for a while, then the pilot told them they had to disembark the plane because it was overweight on it’s limits, it was too heavy. He didn’t get to leave until late Tuesday morning, which means that he will be playing cold, with no practice rounds. There is no confirmation of the rumor that Harry Higgs was that unnamed golfer, although he allegedly won a hot dog eating contest at a bowling alley the night before.

This tourney was upgraded to full status after the cancellation of the HSBC, a WGC event, due to Covid. The purse has been raised from 3 million to 6.5 million when Butterfield bank joined Bermuda tourism as an event sponsor, which means 1.17 million to the winner, 500 FedEx points and a trip to the Masters. There were three golfers who declined to come over, two of them haven’t played since 2012 and the other is an announcer, they mentioned the strict Covid guidelines as a deterrent to joining the tourney this week. To put this in perspective, the strength of the field measured in at 68 points, for the Travelers Championship last year the strength of field was almost 500 points. This along with the weather could mean someone from the lower tiers could get lucky and take the field down.

The weather will be a concern due to the storms hammering the eastern seaboard. Please make sure you check in with Discord later tonight for updates on weather, right now it looks like the early Thursday tee times have an advantage, that could change quickly so be sure to check in with us. There is a strong chance there will be delays during the week.

The ownership projections are another key tool to help you with your roster construction to beat the field. Lets take a look at the numbers for the Bermuda Championship.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Fitzpatrick, Mathew26.511000
Hadwin, Adam25.19400
Reed, Patrick23.410400
Knox, Russell22.67700
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan18.610700
Pereira, Mito16.810500
McCarthy, Denny15.98500
Power, Seamus15.510200
Theegala, Sahith14.18800
Migliozzi, Guido12.68700
Lebioda, Hank12.47500
Ramey, Chad12.29500
Buckley, Hayden11.89900
Jaeger, Stephan 10.98400
Armour, Ryan10.98100
Hardy, Nick10.67900
Lipsky, David10.58000
Willett, Danny10.49300
Dufner, Jason10.27200
Rodgers, Patrick10.19000
Eckroat, Austin 9.97500
Rai, Aaron9.67300
Smalley, Alex 9.27600
Taylor, Vaughn9.26800
Bramlett, Joseph8.88200
Stuard, Brian8.67100
Detry,Thomas 8.68900
Pendrith, Taylor 8.39100
Hickok, Kramer8.17000
Schwab, Matthias 7.99700
Hubbard, Mark7.97900
Gay, Brian7.47100
McDowell, Graeme7.37200
Whaley, Vincent7.27000
Hoag, Bo7.07000
Taylor, Nick6.67400
Cook, Austin6.66900
NeSmith, Matthew6.47300
Stallings, Scott6.28600
Herbert, Lucas 6.27700
Hall, Harry6.27200
Higgo, Garrick6.28300
Lahiri, Anirban6.17100
Watney, Nick6.17800
Hossler, Beau5.77000
Frittelli, Dylan5.47600
Svensson, Adam5.26900
Percy, Cameron4.96900
Kitayama, Kurt 4.96800
Sigg, Greyson 4.77400
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech4.67500
Hodges, Lee 4.47300
Van Der Walt, Dawie4.46900
Uihlein, Peter3.87800
Seiffert, Chase3.86600
Wu, Dylan3.66500
Villegas, Camilo3.66800
Malnati, Peter3.47400
Riley, Davis 3.37100
Straka, Sepp3.27200
Hagy, Brandon3.17300
Lee, Danny3.16700
Pak, John 2.96500
Hearn, David2.77100
Wu, Brandon 2.76700
Donald, Luke2.66700
Reeves, Seth2.46900
Novak, Andrew2.46600
Spaun, JJ1.96600
Smotherman, Austin1.96600
Kohles, Ben1.76700
McGreevy, Max1.76700
Brown, Scott1.76500
O’Hair, Sean1.46600
Gutschewski, Scott1.36400
Martin, Ben1.16500
Lingmerth, David1.16200
Aberg, Ludvig (a)0.97000
Knous, Jim0.86500
Skinns, David0.76600
Flavin, Patrick0.76800
Thompson, Curtis0.76400
Bae, Sangmoon 0.76400
Garrigus, Robert0.76200
Lower, Justin0.66700
Tarren, Callum0.66500
Noh, Seung-Yul0.66400
Gomez, Fabian0.66300
Wagner, Johnson0.66200
Barnes, Erik0.56300
Byrd, Jonathan0.56300
Drewitt, Brett0.46400
Chalmers, Greg0.46300
Stroud, Chris0.46400
Atwal, Arjun0.46300
Wilshire, Kyle0.46200
Romero, Andres0.46300
Kim, Michael0.46200
Gainey, Tommy 0.36500
Potter Jr., Ted0.36100
Crane, Ben0.36400
Senden, John0.36200
Koch, Greg0.26000
Barnes, Ricky0.26200
Sims, Michael0.26200
Trainer, Martin0.26000
Gumberg, Jordan0.26000
Stadler, Kevin0.26000
McLuen, Jay0.26000
Henry, JJ0.16100
Johnson, Richard  0.16000
Points, DA0.16100
Hill, Matt0.16100
Every, Matt0.16200
Chopra, Daniel0.16000
Smith, Camiko0.16100
Browne, Olin0.16100
Purdy, Ted 0.16000
McLachlin, Parker0.16100
Merrick, John 0.06300
Bohn, Jason 0.06100
Rollins, John0.06000
De Jonge, Brendon0.06000
Morris, Brian (a)0.06000
Desilva, Chaka0.06000
Palanyandi, Damian0.06100

These final ownership figures for The Bermuda Championship are accurate as of 15:43 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the Bermuda Championship

Top Tier: Ramey, Reed

Mid Tier: Rodgers, Theegala, Miggliozzi

Low Tier: Eckroat, Taylor, Hall

Out in Left Play: Kitayama

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the Bermuda Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

I want to wish Antonio a speedy recovery and a quick hospital stay so he can get back to the golf staff as quickly as possible. he has a keen eye for picking golf talent and has always been quick to lend a hand where needed, he makes our team stronger, and has always supported our Win Daily Sports family.

Late Addition: Paul Barjon, Bo Van Pelt and Frank Lickliter have all withdrawn, at the time of publication, they have no W/D or OUT designation on DK. Do NOT play any of these three golfers.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Fantasy basketball is a totally different beast than baseball or football. NBA DFS is ruled by the players who stay constantly connected, their eyes glued to their phones or their laptops as crucial lineup changes are announced throughout the day. This game isn’t for the faint of heart or the casual player. In order to win big in NBA DFS players must be on top of it 24/7.

The game is all about value. With NBA DFS, your strategy is about getting the most bang for the buck. In order to understand the strategy that will help you do that, let’s first look at how the scoring breaks down for DraftKings and FanDuel, so you know what each site values and what you should prioritize when you build your lineups.

Offensive ScoringDraftKingsFanDuel
2-Point FG+2+2
3-Point FG+3.5+3
Free Throw+1+1
Offensive Rebound+1.25+1.2
Assist+1.5+1.5
Turnover-0.5-1
Double-Double+1.5N/A
Triple-Double+3N/A

For the most part, these two scoring systems are the same—with some key differences. For one, FanDuel penalizes turnovers with a -1, but DraftKings only docks turnovers at a -0.5 clip. This may lead you to target more accomplished ball handlers on FanDuel to keep from incurring lots of those -1 penalties cutting into your point totals.

Offensive rebounds are virtually the same (1.25 versus 1.2). Free throws and two-point field goals are exactly the same between the two sites, so for your big men, the two sites are pretty much the same on the offensive end. While twos are the same, three-pointers are a little more valuable on DraftKings (3.5 points) versus FanDuel (3 points), so a dead-eye shooter from distance like Steph Curry is worth a little more on DraftKings.

One thing that stands out, too, is that DraftKings rewards big games. In NBA DFS, they give out an extra 1.5 points for double-double games (double-digit scores in two statistical columns between points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals) and an extra three points for triple-doubles (double-digit scores in three of those statistical columns). Across sports, DraftKings loves the breakout game.

Defensive scoring is calculated as follows:

Defensive ScoringDraftKingsFanDuel
Block+2+3
Steal+2+3
Defensive Rebound+1.25+1.2

Defensive scoring is pretty similar here, too, but with some differences: steals are two points on DraftKings and three on FanDuel, just like blocks. Also, just like with offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds are 1.25 to 1.2. Overall, there is a slight advantage to picking up the premium defender in your FanDuel lineup if all other considerations are the same.

Let’s take a look at the different lineups:

DraftKingsFanDuel
PGPG
SGPG
SFSG
PFSG
CSF
GSF
FPF
UTILPF
C

Here we see more differences between the sites. On DraftKings, you get eight players, the five standard positions plus three utility-type roles. The first is a guard, and that player can be a PG or SG. You also get a utility forward position, where you have the option to choose a SF or PF. The third utility role is a true utility position, as DraftKings gives you the opportunity to plug in any player.

The lineup construction for FanDuel is a little more standard than DraftKings with a total of nine players: at PG, SG, SF, and PF, and one at C. With no utility player wiggle room here, your job is a little bit easier. An important distinction, though, is that starting this year on FanDuel, only your top eight players count toward your point total. Be mindful of this: while you technically get one more player, the same number of players counts toward your points total. This is a new change, so it’s unclear how it is going to affect strategy, but it seems to favor a stars-and-scrubs approach where you have eight legit players and one guy who is more of a value pick with high upside. That way, if he doesn’t produce for you, that’s OK: you didn’t dedicate too much space in your salary cap to that pick.

Because NBA DFS is so intense to play, knowing the right statistics is important. Start by looking at a player’s fantasy points. If you don’t have time to get into anything else while building your lineups, here is where you can see who has been the most effective day in and day out. The downside, of course, is that everybody else can see that, too. You won’t be able to uncover any value picks here as you survey the slate and build your lineups. Especially as you get started, it’s good to get familiar with these numbers.

The next thing to look at is the standard statistic lines. For anything that is valued by these sites (field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, and turnovers), it’s easy to find every player’s per game average in that column. Looking at what you’re likely to get from these players and calculating an expected fantasy output is pretty easy thanks to these averages. Look for the type of guys who fill up the box score and add value in all sorts of ways, not just the Carmelo Anthony types who are one dimensional fantasy players because all they add in value are field goals and free throws.

You also want to take a look at how often each player is on the floor. Looking at a player’s minutes-per game on the floor can give you a sense of how integral they are to a team’s offense. You may be looking at two players who have similar stat lines, but if one is on the floor more often than the other guy, you’d want to take the guy who stays out longer, as he’s going to have more chances to rack up points for you. It’s a good rule of thumb to fill your lineups full of players who start for their respective teams, because even the best sixth or seventh man off the bench gets left there some nights.

It is worth your time to take a look at the minutes distribution on different teams. Some teams have a pretty small rotation of key players, with maybe seven or eight guys on the roster actually racking up serious minutes. There are other teams in the league who have really deep rosters and like to rotate ten or twelve guys through each game. Be realistic when assessing a player’s time on the court. Even if a player seems like he should be getting more time on the court, if the coach and front office don’t see it that way, that player will be splitting time and won’t be on the court long enough to get you many points.

Knowing which coaches have a reputation for keeping their starters on the floor will also be beneficial. If a game gets lopsided, some coaches might pull their starters in order to get their reserves some more time on the floor, which would be bad news for you if you have any starters in that lineup. You want your guys to stay out on the court as long as they can to keep racking up the points for your squad.

As you’re deciding between players, though, be sure to look at workload. Some players aren’t impacted much by playing games on back-to-back nights, but some players’ production really takes a hit in those situations. If you’re looking at taking a flier on a player, be sure that they’re not worn out from a tiring game the night before. Especially if your lineup hinges on that player providing big value, be sure that they’re going to be 100 percent for you.

Minutes might tell you who gets on the court a lot and stays there, but if you pick a defensive specialist who isn’t a big part of his team’s offense, you won’t get much fantasy production out of that player. This is why you want to look at a player’s usage. Usage percentage will also help to illuminate how important a player is to his team. This is an advanced statistic that calculates how often the ball is in a player’s hands while he’s on the court.

Ideally, you want to build a lineup full of starters who stay on the court and keep the ball in their hands. Even if they don’t all go for thirty points that night, you’re likely to get some assists, while guys who only touch the ball on field goal attempts won’t have many opportunities to rack up assists for their team (and yours).

“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

–Michael Jordan

Something that makes the NBA different than other sports, though, is streakiness. An NBA player might get hot over a stretch of games and see his numbers shoot up. His attempts may increase too because of his newfound confidence. Targeting these players with the “hot hand” is a good strategy as long as you aren’t overpaying.

As with the MLB, it isn’t just about the players you choose and their strengths, it’s also about who they’re facing off against. A great statistic for you to use when considering defenses is defense versus position (DVP). This stat is the average number of fantasy points that a team allows to a certain position on the court. You typically know who’s going to be guarding who one-on-one, so DVP will help you identify who the weak defenders in the league are. Once you know who these guys are, you should target who’s going up against them.

If you can, target the players who play in up-tempo offenses and are playing against another up-tempo team. Hopefully, the two teams will have a back-and-forth game that gets both of them into the 120s and above.

Team points per game (PPG) is a great statistic to help you figure out how potent an offense is. Ideally, you are looking to match two equal, high-scoring offenses who play at a fast pace and play below-average defense. When you’re looking at matchups trying to find that fast-paced shootout, make sure you check out each team’s pace. A team’s pace is the average number of possessions a team gets per game. More possessions mean more scoring opportunities. You want guys playing on teams with a really high pace factor. Defensive efficiency is a very good statistic for pace, too. It represents the effectiveness of a team’s defense, giving you the average number of points a team allows in every one hundred possessions. If both teams have high numbers with this statistic, this is the kind of game you want to target.

You might wonder what happens when a faster-paced team plays a slowerpaced, better-defending team. In that situation, things typically average out. That tells you that finding one up-tempo team in a matchup isn’t ideal, as it would be better to find a game where two are facing off against one another.

“You can’t get much done in life if you only work on the days when you feel good.”

–Jerry West

Strategy in NBA DFS is what will separate you from the rest of the players out there. While it might be tempting at first, you can’t just play LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry every game. NBA players are very consistent from one game to another, so building a lineup with top players and expecting to get more value than their price is a bad decision. The key to winning money at NBA DFS is by using math to find the undervalued players in great matchups, those great value picks.

The system I like to use is 5x, 6x, 7x. If you pick up a top-end guy like a LeBron or KD for $10,000, you need him to produce five times that number, with fifty points for you that night in order for it to be worth it. Because those type of players eat up so much of your salary cap, you need them to do more than just have their average or expected night. You need them to break out for a huge game.

However, you can’t just fill up a lineup full of superstars. You’re going to have to have some mid-level and lower-level salary guys in there too, so for the mid-level guys you want to get six times his salary in terms of fantasy points. Remember that a few bad games might change even a very good player’s valuation and therefore his pricing. This is why it’s so important to do your research: there are always good players out there who are undervalued.

With lower-level salary guys, you’re looking for them to produce seven times their salary. This might seem like a lot to ask, but there are good values to find every night. How do you get these huge breakout value picks, though? That’s the million-dollar question with NBA DFS. Because players are so consistent night in and night out, and there are so many great statistics out there to help players predict fantasy success, it’s not just about picking good players and sitting back hoping to beat the system that way. That won’t work.

What you need to do with NBA DFS is stay up on the news. It sounds like a pretty basic concept, as it seems like every player should be doing this. Still, that really is what separates great fantasy players from mediocre ones. There is a definite skill to acquiring the news and quickly analyzing it. Each night is a new puzzle and only the best problem solvers walk away with the cash each night.

You can follow player updates on various sources throughout the day and if you follow all the NBA beat writers on Twitter, you’ll be up on the latest news from the people closest to the team up until tip-off. That may be a lot to ask, though, because there are so many beat writers and they won’t only be tweeting out injury updates. Everyone has their own method of staying on top of the news, so make sure to find a process that works for you. Be sure to follow the experts and make sure you’re near your computer or phone, so you can get the inside scoop to all the late-dropping news as the lineup lock approaches.

Now, let’s say you find out that a star player is injured and out of the lineup that day. Consider the effect that’s going to have on their team. Imagine the minutes of every game as a pool to be distributed among the players on that team. If a player who is typically on the court for forty minutes a night is now out of the lineup, there are a lot of minutes in that pool up for grabs. There’s also a lot of usage that gets transferred over, too.

Typically, the way it works is that the usage transfers mostly to the other original starters, and the minutes go to the bench players who are now in the lineup. There’s a bump on both sides, though. There are tools that can help you decide what’s going to happen when a starter is out of a team’s lineup. Good projection systems will adjust the usage with the new combination of guys on the court. As injuries linger, more data will become available. The larger the sample size of minutes played together, the more accurate the data on usage and other categories will be. Always check the sample size.

It used to be that both DraftKings and FanDuel locked their lineups at 7:00 p.m. ET, so if a player was a late scratch, fantasy players’ lineups got blown up. This was especially true when teams were getting late into the season with no hope of making the playoffs, so they started tanking to get better draft picks the next year. Because this delay of information was such an issue, DraftKings recently changed their rules. You can swap players in and out until their game tips off.

Again, staying up on the latest news is important. If you’re following Los Angeles beat writers on Twitter and they announce five minutes before tip-off that LeBron is out of the lineup because of a strained calf, you can swap in a player just in time to save your team’s chances that night. Without making that swap, all your research would be down the drain because you’re not going to win money with a zero in your lineup.

These injury scratches are common in other sports too, of course, but in MLB, even though the teams play almost every day, the lineups are typically announced a couple hours prior to the first pitch. In the NFL, teams announce their injured players’ statuses throughout the week and their official inactive players are announced hours before the game. But in the NBA, teams play almost every day and often will pull a player out with only a few minutes to spare before game time, so DraftKings changed their policy on swaps. This is good news for you, but it also means that you need to pay attention to the news for longer, so you don’t miss a single last-minute change.

Unless you can be near your computer from 6:00 p.m. to at least 7:00 p.m. ET every night, playing NBA DFS is probably not for you. It is a serious time commitment. If you’re going to play, you need to make sure that you can play well. If you commit a significant portion of your salary cap to a superstar player, expecting him to rack up major points for you, but then he gets pulled out of the lineup in the few minutes before tip-off and you’re out at dinner, you can kiss your chances of winning good-bye. The players who stay focused don’t get burned like this.

One strategy to use with the late swap is to enter a mock lineup during the day. Hold off on submitting until all the information rolls in from your sources. Then take that extra time to make your optimal lineup. So, if you don’t like any players from the 7:00 p.m. games, you can wait to lock in your players until the 8:00 p.m. games, allowing you an extra hour of research and more time to wait for news to drop.

An important thing to know is that pricing for players is set the night before each game. This means that if one of your starters gets pulled, you may not have to look far for his replacement. If that team has a good sixth man at your starter’s position, you may just want to plug him in as your replacement, especially if the offense is catered toward getting the ball to a player with his profile. Also remember that players from the second unit are priced accordingly, so in this situation you could get a guy at a minimum (or near minimum salary) who will be in the starting lineup for the night, with increased overall usage and minutes.

You can use this knowledge to your advantage when looking for value picks, as well. If you want to set up a stars-and-scrubs lineup, you could do pretty well for yourself by taking a couple superstars who are in great matchups that should play out for 5x points, two to three guys who will produce 5-6x value, and a player or two who are filling in for injured starters but have the skills and role in the offense to produce six or seven times what their cost is to you in terms of salary.

Another way to get the most value is by stacking. Just like in the other sports, you can stack one team or both teams in a game. It would be smart to pick up two to three guys from one team who are set up to provide a lot of value. Maybe you could find a couple guys who are going to be on the floor a lot in a fast paced back-and-forth game or a couple minimum-priced players who are filling in for the night. Let’s say both teams score a lot of points and move the ball quickly up and down the court, so it’s going to be a shootout. Take a look at how the second team’s offense works. If you can, target two to three players from that team who are also key contributors. A shootout— especially one that goes to overtime—will result in a lot of points for you.

Another thing to take a look at is the depth of the whole team. If there are a lot of injuries on their squad and their bench is depleted, they’ll be leaning on five or six guys to produce for them that night. It might be smart to stack that team in a high-scoring game. Stacking three to four players on the same team can be a smart play on occasions where a team is really thin on depth and only has seven or so players in their rotation. Each player will be forced to play heavy minutes, which will translate to good production for you.

Ideal games to stack are games that come down to the final whistle. Not only do you want a high-scoring affair, you also want a game where all the starters and players you roster stay on the court until the buzzer goes off. This is where you can use Vegas to your advantage. Take a look at the spreads in the games. If a spread is five points or less and the over/under is maybe 230 or more, Vegas is predicting a back-and forth high-scoring close game, which will be one for you to stack both sides on. Each time players go up and down the court, whoever it is, you’ll be racking up the points. This is especially true on the off chance the game heads to overtime, as unlike with other sports, the two teams will be scoring points back and forth for the entire overtime period.

Something to remember, especially when paying up for superstars, is that you want your players to be on the court the whole game so that they provide the kind of value you need from them. If you’re going after a player like LeBron, be sure that this game isn’t going to turn into a blowout or that his team isn’t going to pull him off the court early to rest him for the playoffs or to ensure a loss if the team is tanking.

The biggest thing to remember with NBA DFS, though, is that you want to get the picks right. Let the other guys take all sorts of risks on players who they think will have breakout games. What you’re looking to do is build a lineup that has the highest floor possible with some upside, so you know with a certain amount of confidence that your team is going to produce for you. Get the guys who are consistent night in and night out and are underpriced on that given night. Get the guys who are going against a weak defender. When news comes out about players getting pulled for injuries, or sickness, rest, or “rest” late in a losing season, be the player who quickly adjusts on the fly and produces optimal lineups.

To prepare for an average night with a seven-game slate, here’s what I do. The night before or first thing in the morning, I go to the schedule and look at the slate. My plan is to find the potential shootout game by looking at each game’s over/under. I want to find the two to four highest-scoring games and notate them as the potential game stack games. From there, I look to see what players are already ruled out and who is questionable for the slate that I need to keep an eye on throughout the day. Next, I look at who the potential value players will be and look for the high-priced players that are in a juicy matchup that I also want to target.

I try to start each of my lineups by locking in my favorite value players that provide the best lock for 5-7x value. I also lock the higher-priced players who I think have the floor for safety along with the highest ceiling for their price tag. From there, I round out my lineups from a position-by-position standpoint to see who to fill into the proper slots. I notate which positions look deep and which positions look scarce.

I try my best to narrow and adjust my player pool, listing out my favorite four to eight plays at each position. As the day goes, I like to create five to ten mocks and play out different scenarios in my head. For instance: “If the Warriors versus Rockets game turns into a shootout, this would be the lineup that would crush” or “If these two value guys hit and Harden does his thing, this should be a great cash lineup.”

As the day progresses and news is released, I readjust the earlier mocks and create new ones. The part that gets tricky is how much to listen to the “experts.” Throughout the day, podcasts and articles get posted on various sites. With all the new information that comes out and with all the injuries and lineup changes, it’s difficult to adjust your old opinions and keep track of all the potential combinations. If you’re not available and don’t have the time to focus and grind from 6-8:00 p.m. during the NBA season, you should really take the season off because this is when the money is won. It’s crucial to decipher all this information throughout the day and readjust your lineups on the fly. Your 9:00 a.m. lineups will get crushed on most nights if you don’t readjust at least portions of your lineup in response to the new info.

When the news drops, you can find me at my desk focused in, adjusting my lineups as every minute goes by. The feeling of pressure and anxiety is a bit like sitting in a college classroom during a final with only three minutes left, knowing that any second the teacher will tell the class, “Pencils down.” Now, add the fact that you have thousands of dollars at risk.

To be honest, on some days I don’t know how I reached the point where I’m rostering guys I have never even heard of and have $5,000 riding on some scrub getting the first start of his career, but that’s how a typical night of NBA DFS goes. When the games start on those days, I’m sick to my stomach and look at my lineup thinking, “How did I end up with this team? This one guy I took a shot on is going to make or break my lineup.” There is such a sense of relief as 7:00 p.m. comes, though. The only thing left is for the players to play.

Now you can understand the grind of the game and specifically how much skill and effort is needed to be successful. Every day is a new challenge and a new battle to win. The best players out there have found ways to simplify their process and avoid the clutter. Not only do they readjust one lineup, but they have the power to adjust ten, twenty, fifty, or one hundred fifty lineups on the fly. Stay cool under the pressure, be confident, and trust your process. Develop a daily routine that you’re comfortable with. Then constantly refine it until you’ve found a system that works with your schedule and is profitable more often than not.

They say the harder you work, the luckier you get, and one thing I guarantee you is this: the hardest workers in the NBA DFS industry are the ones on top of the leaderboards on most nights. Some call them lucky, but the veterans in the game know the truth.

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Another nice output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games – we absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.


In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (30%), Patrick Mahomes (20%), Lamar Jackson (20%), Darrell Henderson (40%), D’Andre Swift (40%), Darrel Williams (35%), Leonard Fournette (25%), Calvin Ridley (40%), Sterling Shepard (35%), Cooper Kupp (25%), Davante Adams (25%), Dallas Goedert (30%), Ricky Seals-Jones (35%)
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $8,800 FD)

It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 27th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 57 points (the highest on the slate… by far). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards and again, just about three passing touchdowns. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start, like last week.

Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Not sure what else Hurts needs to do for DraftKings to raise his price up to the mid $7K range. Regardless of what he does through the air, he provides damn near 2x minimum return to his salary with his legs, especially in this matchup against a Raiders’ defense who gives up a significant amount of damage on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. When 40% of the NFL DFS Cash Game field is likely to use Hurts as their quarterback, I’m all for eating the chalk here and taking the discount if you cannot afford Patrick Mahomes.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($9,200 DK / $11,000 FD)

What else is there to say about King Henry? No idea how to afford him on FanDuel, but I also have no idea on how you fade him here against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked run defense.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

Henderson grades out to be the highest owned running back on the slate as a ridiculous 16.5 point home-favorite against a Detroit Lions’ defense that grades out 26th in run defense DVOA. We always love running backs as a big home favorite and we should continue to attack those spots on a weekly basis here with Henderson. My only concern is the legit blowout factor and spelling a lot of second-half carries to Sony Michel.

Darrel Williams ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

Like most weeks, you’re going to want exposure to the Chiefs’ offense somewhere in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. Williams is by far the most affordable player on that offense with significant touchdown equity and a floor of 14+ points.

Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)

It’s gross, but apparently it’s Miles Sanders chalk week. I personally love this dude and his talent is apparent every single Sunday when he takes the field, but apparently Nick Sirianni doesn’t love him nearly as much as I do. Despite the multiple disappointing weeks, it’s hard to not jam in Sanders for the salary relief. This total is sitting around 48 points and the AETY Model doesn’t project it to be significantly up-paced like recent Eagles games. With that said, I think it’s relatively safe enough to project Sanders’ for his first 17+ touch game since Week 1. The price is likely never going to be this low again and should help us find a way to get to Derrick Henry.

Honorable Mention: Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Chubba Hubbard

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

I doubt you can afford both Henry and Adams, but I will make it a priority to have one of them in my NFL DFS Cash Game lineup. The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week as they host one of the worst secondaries in the NFL with the Washington Football Team, grading out fourth in the Adjusted Expected Team Totals Tool.

Calvin Ridley ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)

Calvin Ridley is back and should plant himself right back into a 25% or higher target share in one of the faster-paced games on the slate in Miami. With Xavien Howard likely to miss this game, a Miami secondary that already grades in the bottom eight in pass defense DVOA should have their hands full with Ridley’s elite route running. There is a bit of risk with the layoff, a healthy Russell Gage, and the emergence of Kyle Pitts of late, but the cash game field doesn’t seem to care. The high ownership should not hinder your ability to cash in these types of contests.

AJ Brown ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD)

A clear WR1 going up against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked pass defense (in terms of DVOA) and a game total sitting at 57 points… If you’re not playing Henry in cash, play AJ Brown.

Sterling Shepard ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD)

Much more appealing on DraftKings with the full-point PPR scoring setup, but Shepard is one of the 4 wide receivers on this slate who the AETY Model anticipates a 30% target-share for. Carolina’s secondary is solid but susceptible to slot-receiver damage with A.J. Bouye struggling this season.

*UPDATE: Moving to Chris Godwin with no Antonio Brown. Likely a cash lock for me.

Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Just way, way too cheap on both DFS websites. Devonta Smith is an elite WR1 going up against a banged up secondary who struggles when they’re healthy. Smith lines up all over the field and will have plenty of opportunities to burn this secondary with our without Casey Hayward in coverage.

Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman (value chalk), Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Jakobi Meyers, DeAndre Hopkins

Tight Ends

Naturally, if you can afford Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, you start and end your tight end roster position there. If not, here’s the two others on my radar for Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game lineups.

Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,900 FD)

Goedert has cleared the COVID-19 protocol and will suit up as the other true passing catching tight end on this Eagles’ roster now that Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona. This is likely the brink of a much higher role in route-running for Dallas Goedert and the price is likely to never be this cheap as he should be in line for 14+ DraftKings points against Las Vegas and their secondary ranked 23rd against the tight end position.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD)

Much more appealing on DraftKings, but still playable on FanDuel with his high touchdown equity, is Mr. Week 6 Chalk, Ricky Seals-Jones. Green Bay grades 26th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends and as mentioned in the Davante Adams write-up, Green Bay should score at will in this matchup. With that likely gamescript, RSJ should be heavily involved in the passing attack as their wide receiver core is rather banged up.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Welcome everyone to the ZoZo Championship Final Ownership Projections, this week we travel to Japan for a 78 man field with no cut. Its a mix of top 50 players, journeyman golfers and the elite of Japans pro golfers.

We talk about actionable data here at Win Daily Sports. Actionable data provides you the intel on players to make a difference on your lineups to make you cash. Period. Last week Spencer touted Rory McIlroy until he was blue in the face, and he’s not even planning on being a Smurf for Halloween. On Wednesday night I released Robert Streb, a golfer that was owned by less than 1% of the field, and near the minimum at 6100 salary. He was in first late Sunday until he ended up finishing ninth. Extreme value equals actionable data which equals cash in your pocket. Sia and Joel came through with some top level plays along with Antonio, and Isaiah hit Ricky Fowler hard. Rory, Ricky, Streb, Wise, Gooch and others. Pure money.

Have you ever heard of Keita Nikajima? Takumi Kanaya ? They happen to be the last two top amateur golfers in the world and winners of the McCormack medal and they have turned pro and will be in this tourney, along with the top 7 of the JGTO order of merit. These pro golfers from Japan could help you break the slate and we are diving through data to bring you our best choices. These guys love Sumo wrestling, and I found out they had been interviewed by a top Sumo magazine so i dove in to get a perspective on these athletes and what drives them. You have no idea the lengths to which we will uncover gold intel for you. Imagine trying to read an interview when on the opposite page is two honorable huge Sumo wrestlers in diapers waging war and its up close in high definition. Very. High. Def. That’s a mental picture that won’t go away quickly. The correlation is that the golfers admire these Sumo warriors who spend years trying to become champions, making huge sacrifices, and striving to become the best at what they do. One of these golfers represented to something I love and after digging some more, he will be mentioned in Discord Wednesday night, minus the Sumo photos.

The ownership projections are just another tool to help you with your roster construction to beat the field. Lets take a look at the numbers for the ZoZo Championship.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Schauffele, Xander26.411000
Morikawa, Collin24.111200
Vegas, Jhonattan20.78900
Matsuyama, Hideki19.610300
Pan, CT19.28800
Higgs, Harry17.17500
Niemann, Joaquin16.29900
List, Luke15.57900
Lee, KH15.58700
Schenk, Adam15.48200
Kirk, Chris14.68100
Ghim, Doug13.87000
Zalatoris,Will13.210500
Grillo, Emiliano13.29100
McNealy, Maverick12.99300
Jones, Matt12.97200
Norlander, Henrik12.87400
Kang, Sung12.76300
Fowler, Rickie12.69800
Merritt, Troy11.16900
Hoge, Tom10.97000
Bradley, Keegan10.79400
Tringale, Cameron10.49200
Kanaya, Takumi10.47200
Hoffman, Charley10.28500
Munoz, Sebastian10.27300
Higgo, Garrick9.97800
Ortiz, Carlos9.78600
Wallace, Matt9.78000
Grace, Branden9.77600
Fleetwood, Tommy9.610000
Griffin, Lanto9.68400
Noren, Alex9.19700
Van Rooyen, Erik8.89500
Palmer, Ryan8.48300
Sloan, Roger8.46800
Steele, Brendan8.37100
Vincent, Scott7.36400
Putnam, Andrew6.96700
Todd, Brendon6.97400
NeSmith, Matthew6.76500
Perez, Pat6.57300
Streb, Robert6.17700
Kim, Si Woo5.99600
Clark, Wyndham5.96400
Hagy, Brandon5.66600
Hughes, Mackenzie5.59000
Straka, Sepp5.37100
Hadley, Chesson5.16900
Malnati, Peter4.66600
Kim, Chan4.46500
Kinoshita,  Ryosuke4.26200
Redman, Doc4.16800
Stanley, Kyle3.76200
Ryder, Sam3.56700
Long, Adam2.76300
Kodaira, Satoshi2.56400
Hickok, Kramer2.36300
Hahn, James2.36300
Norris, Shaun 2.36000
Bryan, Wesley2.16000
Hoshino, Rikuya1.76200
Imahira, Shugo1.56500
McCumber, Tyler1.46100
Nagano, Ryutaro0.86100
Otsuki, Tomoharu0.76200
Iwata, Hiroshi0.76100
Haas, Bill0.66100
Nakajima, Keita (a)0.56100
Kozuma, Jinichiro0.46100
Higa, Kazuki0.36200
Hisatsune, Ryo0.36000
Inamori, Yuki0.36000
Imada, Ryuji0.36000
Oiwa, Ryuichi0.26000
Sugiyama, Tomoyasu0.26000
Kataoka, Naoyuki0.16000
Nakanishi, Naoto0.16000

These final ownership figures for The ZoZo Championship are accurate as of 15:17 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the ZoZo Championship

Top Tier: Mori

Mid Tier: Vegas, Kirk, Norlander

Low Tier: Putnam, Vincent, Norris

Out in Left Play: Kanaya

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The ZoZo Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The ZoZo will not be be posted tonight in Discord due to it being a no cut event. Just remember that Sia’s picks come from the same place as his Secret Weapon, which has an absolutely sick win record. Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer has a great new article out and is joining us in Discord so welcome Spencer and Tee Off Sports ! Antonio will have his BBB play and my frisky risky biscuit play will come out shortly in Discord along with any late breaking intel to help you break your contest slate.

On another matter, for the first time Sia has endorsed Harry Higgs, who may be in Japan for a bowling tournament as well. Michael Rasile should carry an umbrella around today because certainly pigs will be flying sky high today. Word must have gotten out that Sia is on him, he is tracking at close to 17% ownership, which allegedly is the same amount of Sushi restaurants he has closed down from wolfing down all their seafood, then eating all the fish in their aquariums as well.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Thanks for checking out this article all about NFL DFS Strategy Guide, it’s an excerpt directly from my book Win Daily: Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports And Life. Make sure to sign up for a FREE or Gold Membership here to get slate specific advice from myself and our other DFS and Sports Betting Pros!

One-week Fantasy Football has grown in popularity over the last few years and for good reason. The money being awarded to the winners of tournaments has exploded, reaching its peak when DraftKings hosted their Daily Fantasy Football World Championship, with a $15 million prize pool that awarded $5 million to the lucky first-place winner. DraftKings and FanDuel are now running weekly Millionaire Makers awarding $1 million to first-place finishers every week this season. What better way to enjoy the NFL season than to go after a million-dollar prize. It’s more appealing, too, because you can draft a new team each week and not have to worry about shuffling around injured players and draft busts. What you will read below is a step by step guide to NFL DFS Strategy Guide.

Many DFS players consider NFL DFS preferable to MLB and NBA DFS because fantasy players get multiple days between games to research their teams. In addition, there are many great resources out there to break down players’ performances from the previous week and to project their success moving forward. For the casual player who wants to dabble in DFS, I always suggest starting with the NFL. It’s the same advice I give to family and friends. There are plenty of statistical considerations to get into, but first let’s break down the differences between DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s scoring systems.

Offensive ScoringDraftKingsFanDuel
Passing TD+4+4
Passing Yards+0.04/Yard+0.04/Yard
300 Yards Passing+3N/A
Interception Allowed-1-1
Rushing TD+6+6
Rushing Yards+0.1/Yard+0.1/Yard
100 Yards Rushing+3N/A
Receiving TD+6+6
Receiving Yards+0.1/Yard+0.1/Yard
Reception+1+0.5
100 Yards Receiving+3N/A
Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD+6+6
Fumble Lost -1-2
2-Point Conversion+2+2
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD+6+6

Something that immediately stands out here is that the two systems are very similar, down to the points per yard on passing, receiving, and rushing yards. However, you’ll see that DraftKings awards a full point per reception, while FanDuel gives 0.5 points, a seemingly small distinction but one that may play into your roster construction, as your high-volume receivers, running backs, and tight ends are twice as valuable on DraftKings.

Another key distinction here is that DraftKings awards an extra three points for the milestones of three hundred passing yards, one hundred receiving yards, and one hundred rushing yards. This should definitely factor into your lineup construction, as you’re looking for players on DraftKings who are likely to have a huge breakout game, so you can get those bonus points on top of all the points they’ve already accumulated for you with their raw yardage.

Defensive ScoringDraftKingsFanDuel
Sack+1+1
Interception+2+2
Fumble Recovery+2+2
Interception for TD+6+6
Fumble Recovery for TD+6+6
Blocked Punt or FG Return for TD+6+6
Safety+2+2
Blocked Punt or FG+2+2
2-Point Conversion / Extra Point Return+2+2
0 Points Allowed+10+10
1-6 Points Allowed+7+7
7-13 Points Allowed+4+4
14-20 Points Allowed+1+1
21-27 Points Allowed00
28-34 Points Allowed-1-1
35+ Points Allowed-4-4

Defensive scoring is exactly the same. You’ll get big points from defenses who don’t give up many points and get a lot of turnovers. This shouldn’t be all that surprising for you, though, so let’s take a look at roster construction for the two sites.

As we get into rosters, it’s important to note that neither league includes kickers anymore on classic slates, a change that went into effect for FanDuel in 2018. The positions you must fill on each site are:

DraftKingsFanDuel
QBQB
RBRB
RBRB
WRWR
WRWR
WRWR
TETE
FLEXFLEX
Defense/Special TeamsDefense/Special Teams

The lineup construction has changed over the years, so now the two leagues are exactly the same in this regard. If you’re familiar with football, you should recognize all these positions. Except one, that is. Let’s talk about the FLEX. The FLEX spot for both sites can be filled with either an RB, WR, or TE. This gives you the opportunity to have three RB’s in your lineup, something that may pay off for you if you identify backs who are lining up against weak run defenses, especially in games their teams are favored to win, likely resulting in heavy second half touches during garbage time to run the clock down and preserve the win. If you remember the scoring breakdown, though, DraftKings awards a full point per reception while FanDuel gives only 0.5 and DraftKings gives bonuses for yardage milestones, so the way you use this FLEX position should differ between the two leagues. When you’re on DraftKings, you should strongly consider using the FLEX for pass-catching running backs and highly targeted receivers and tight ends.

“ If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven’t done anything today.”
–Lou Holtz

Football is a shorter season than other sports, with each team only playing sixteen games, so you have plenty of time for research, but every game counts quite a bit more than in baseball. There are certain statistics you should focus on to be successful. First, take a look at a player’s fantasy points per game. You can see how many fantasy points players average and what their totals are from week to week. If you’re looking for a place to start, here you go. This is where you’ll begin to get a feel for who the top performers are. As you get into your research, you can make the distinction between them and your value picks that may be less obvious. Our site provides projection models that estimate weekly scoring for each player on the slate. I make my own personal adjustments based on my research and update that daily as the week goes on. My goal is to narrow the player pool down by Saturday night. Of course, the more time I have on a given week affects the number of players I may have to choose from. Football is a sport with a great amount of variance, so I try to be selective with my player pool. At the same time, though, I want to add in potential low-owned high-value players that could be in line for a breakout game. To get a sense of a player’s consistency, take a look at their variation from week to week, which is usually represented by standard deviation. When you draft a high-priced player, you want to be sure that even if they have a down week, they’ll bring you at least fifteen to twenty points and won’t kill the rest of your lineup.

Quarterbacks (QB’s) are essential and less volatile than other positions in your lineup because they get so many opportunities to succeed each week. Not all QB’s are consistent, of course, but you won’t see many QB’s get pulled out of games at halftime or see their attempts fluctuate too wildly from one start to another. Typically, quarterbacks on losing teams perform better in fantasy than quarterbacks on winning ones. This makes sense because when teams are losing, they are going to adopt a more pass-heavy game plan in order to score as quickly as possible, and when they are winning, they will turn to the running game to drain the clock. However, this fact doesn’t mean you should target every underdog quarterback over the favored ones. If the matchup looks great for a certain quarterback, you should take him even if he’s favored to win the game. The team may shut down the passing game with a lead later on, but they likely will have built that lead with a strong aerial attack. Game script matters, but not so much to keep you from taking a great matchup. Ideally, you want a good QB on a team with a weak defense and no good RB’s. That way, the team will be down frequently in games and have to throw more often. Because fantasy points are all about accumulation, it doesn’t matter if his completion percentage is terrible, as long as he’s racking up yards and TD’s for you.

Mobile quarterbacks are great picks for DFS because they can rack up points for you in multiple ways. Passing yards are worth 0.04 pts/yard, but rushing yards are worth 2.5 times more at 0.1 pts/yard. So, if you’re choosing between two QB’s, you should take the one who might be able to get outside the pocket and break out for fifty yards rushing at some point during the game—if he does, that scramble would be worth five points for you. On good days, a dual-threat QB like Cam Newton will rush for eighty yards with a rushing TD, giving you a fourteen-point boost in addition to all his passing yards and TD’s. Touchdowns are hard to predict on a week-to week basis but there are certain factors we can look at with QB’s to help us predict who’s going to rack up TD’s that week. First, you can look at scoring rates. What percentage of the team’s scores come from the passing game? What percentage of the red-zone scores are through the air? Looking at scoring rates of both the quarterback’s offense and the defense he’s facing that week can give you an idea of how often he’ll get into the end zone.

As you choose your RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s, take a look at snap counts, touches, and targets per game. You want guys who are on the field, get handed the ball, and get thrown the ball a lot. Snap totals are really important for offensive players. If a player is in a timeshare situation or is battling an injury that’s affecting his snaps each week, he may not be out there when the defense shows a weakness and the offensive coordinator figures out how to exploit it. You might have a guy in a new system who hasn’t won over his coaches yet, or is dealing with a nagging injury, or is just getting outplayed by somebody else at his position.

You can also see how those snap totals are trending. If a player is staying on the field more and more in recent weeks, that’s great, as he’s keeping himself in a position to rack up points. However, if he’s seeing less and less time, you should fade that player, even if he’s a big name. Go with the guys who are going to be in the middle of things all the time. Remember that fantasy points aren’t based on averages. If a certain back is averaging four yards per carry, that’s great, but doesn’t do much for your fantasy team if he only gets ten touches in a game. Avoid these kinds of timeshare players who split their action with another guy in their position. A bell cow-type RB who gets closer to three yards per carry but gets the ball thirty times a game is the type of guy you want to target. Volume, volume, volume. Take a look at those touches per game and target those guys week in and week out.

Something to remember as you look at your options, though, is that just like with QB’s, many factors can affect a back’s touches throughout the game. If a team is up a lot of points early in the game, even the most pass heavy offenses will pull back in their offensive approach and start handing the ball off more frequently to their running backs. The converse is true, as well. If you target an RB who usually gets thirty touches a game, but his team is down twenty-one points heading into the second half, it’s unlikely that the player will get many rushes. His teams will likely try to make up the difference with downfield passing plays, leaving him out of the offensive scheme unless the team has dual-threat receiving backs.

The same is true for receivers: go after the guys who get targeted a lot. The number of targets a particular receiver totals indicates how useful he is to the team. With receivers, you should consider Receiver Air Yards (RAY). The statistic adds up the total number of yards thrown toward a receiver on plays in which he’s targeted—both completed passes and incomplete ones. Basically, it gives you a raw number of what would happen if all his targets had turned into catches. This gives you a sense of how much a receiver is a part of his offense’s scheme and helps you compare value between different types of receivers. An important thing to note about choosing a receiver, though, is that the two systems reward different types of receivers. With the yardage milestone bonuses and a full point per reception, DraftKings rewards possession receivers who get targeted a lot. For instance, a guy who gets ten catches for one hundred yards, basically just moving the chains, would rack up twenty-three points on DraftKings compared to fifteen on FanDuel. So, on DraftKings, the better pick isn’t the exciting player who can stretch the field on long passing plays once or twice per game, tempting as they might be to add to your squad.

Speaking of long passing plays, a statistic to keep in mind is yards per catch (YPC). A player who is near the top of the league in YPC is more likely to get open down the field for a long touchdown catch than a possession receiver whose game is more geared toward getting first down catches to keep the chains moving. If you’re looking for deep threats, YPC is where you want to look. If you’re not sure about a deep threat receiver, take a look at his quarterback’s yards per attempt (YPA). A quarterback who’s averaging around five YPA is simply not looking to stretch the field with deep passes, but if he’s up closer to ten, there’s some big-play potential for that receiver of yours. A player’s success depends on his quarterback and team’s offensive schemes. Take, for instance, TE Jimmy Graham. He put up great numbers while in New Orleans in a pass-heavy offense centered around Drew Brees. After going to Seattle, his production plummeted. The Seahawks’ system wasn’t as compatible with his strengths, since he preys on slower linebackers who are forced to cover him down the field.

As you target players, take a look at how they’ve performed in their current system as well as their historical performance. Something that made Jimmy Graham so effective in New Orleans was that he was targeted in the red zone nearly every time because of his height and ability to high-point a catch for a TD.

Red zone targets are another important statistic to look at, as you want the guys who get the ball around the goal line, so you can rack up those six point TD’s. There have been quite a few NFL rule changes over the past few years that benefit offensive players. Defensive backs aren’t allowed to hand check and hold nearly as much as they used to, and pass rushers basically can’t touch the quarterback at all. Both of these changes have made passing easier. Rule changes to protect receivers, making it illegal to hit defenseless receivers or hit them in the neck/head region, have resulted in more missed tackles and bigger windows for receptions, too. These changes have raised the stakes on your offensive drafting. Offense in NFL DFS has always been important, but these rule changes have made it even more so.

When putting together your team, choosing the right defense will also be important. Because you get points for sacks and turnovers as well as for holding opposing offenses to fewer points, it’s a smart strategy to target teams who get great pressure on the quarterback to force turnovers and hold offenses to low point output. Taking a look at defense value over average (DVOA) is a good place to start when researching defenses. DVOA calculates a team’s success each play during the season and how successful they are compared to the league average for that down and distance. A defense that ranks near the top in DVOA is better on average week in and week out than the rest of the league.

Go after the defense that has proven to be able to game plan against their opponents to hold them to fewer points than other defenses. Also check out what they defend against well and what they don’t. Some teams are really good against the run but have a weak secondary, and vice versa. A team may have a great DVOA because of their secondary, but if they have an average defensive line and linebacking core and are facing off against a team that’s averaging well over one hundred yards in rushing each week, they’re likely to see that DVOA ranking drop after giving up a lot of points on the ground.

The same is true with passing defense numbers. Remember that the game is skewed toward the offense now, and the best offensive teams in each category will beat the best defensive teams in that category. The best way to target your defense, though, isn’t really about the defense at all. It’s most important to pick your defense based on their opponent. Low-scoring offenses rarely have breakout performances, no matter who they’re up against. So, as you pick your defense, start your research by taking a look at the worst-performing offenses and who they’re playing that week. Especially look to target teams missing their starting QB, key pieces of their offensive line, or their stud RB.

As you identify good matchups, be aware that weather can have an effect although not as much as you might think. Light rain, snow, or wind doesn’t have much of an effect on offensive players. However, heavy snow and rain can make it more difficult for quarterbacks to throw well, for running backs to hold on to the ball, and for receivers to complete receptions. During snowy games, the amount of accumulation on the ground is very important: while offensive players may be slowed down a bit, defensive players are too, which can open up some great opportunities for long catch and-run TD’s.

Heavy winds over 20 mph are rare but do occur several times throughout each season. Strong wind will have the worst effect on the offense, affecting quarterbacks and the receiving core most. Be sure to check out the weather reports the day of the games to see if any weather threats are affecting the players you have chosen. Games played in domes are typically good for offenses, as players will be able to play faster with more sure footing. Identifying offenses with fast skill players who are playing inside that week is a good plan: their speedy guys might be able to break through for big gains during the winter months when other teams’ offenses will be slowed down by heavy snow, rain, and frigid temperatures.

Something else to keep in mind is that injuries are common in the NFL. Reading the practice reports as they come out during the week will be crucial to your success. If a player is inactive or if he’s questionable, take a look at his replacement, especially if it’s an RB in a run-heavy offense or a WR in a pass-heavy one. Teams won’t change their entire offensive structure just because a player is out that week. They will plug the next guy in and keep right on going. These players will typically be flying under the radar, as low-owned backups. However, be careful about reading too much into these reports, as teams are deceptive in their approach and disclose as little as possible about their players’ injuries so that their upcoming opponents don’t catch wind of a crucial injury.

Bye weeks are crucial for players who are battling nagging injuries. If there’s a player who’s been listed on his team’s practice report as question- able for a couple weeks due to a minor injury, but he gets a full bye week to rest, he could be a good buy-low candidate if the team goes into a matchup that will favor them. After an extra week of rest and treatment, he might be lined up for a breakout performance. The converse of that is when players are coming off a short week or flying cross-country, getting less rest between games. Be especially aware of which direction teams are flying each week. If one of the players you’re considering is on a West Coast team and is heading east to play an early game in the 1:00 p.m. slot, you may want to slide down his projection a tad. That’s a tough adjustment for the player to make, and if you’re considering two players side by side, that might make the difference for you.

Low-owned players in general should be a place for you to look for value picks. If somebody is struggling early on in a new system or battling injuries but is facing off against a weak defense or other conditions that favor him, it would be a good bet to take a flier on him as a value pick who may break out. This is especially true when players face off against defenses with certain weaknesses. Maybe an RB is having a tough season but is playing a team with a weak defensive line. That’s a great opportunity to get some value out of a cheaper pick. Similarly, middling receivers versus banged-up secondaries are worth checking out.

We talked about stacking with the MLB, and you can stack in football as well. Stacking your QB with your receiving core is a great idea, as you’ll get points on both ends. In 2017, QB/WR stacks earned 20+ points fifty-two times, or 3.05 times per week. This is a tried-and-true strategy for racking up big points.

Stacking QB/RB is a little more complicated. If the RB on the team catches the ball well out of the backfield, something players like Alvin Kamara do on a consistent basis, you can stack the QB with the RB. This is especially true if the defense they’re facing that day runs a scheme that leaves RB’s out of the backfield uncovered or left to a slower linebacker. You can uncover a great matchup by researching little tidbits like this. However, the only time you’d want to stack a QB with an RB is if he catches the ball out of the backfield a lot. In 2017, there were only twenty-five occurrences of twenty point QB/RB stacks, or 1.47 per week. There just aren’t that many Alvin Kamaras and Christian McCaffreys out there who are heavily involved in their team’s passing offense. Because you’re looking for an accumulation of points, you don’t want to take a QB and an RB out of a balanced offense and get a marginal return from both. It would be better for you to take a QB from a pass-heavy offense and an RB from a run-heavy one. That way, you’re taking the biggest producers from each offensive scheme.

You can also stack the entire game, just like with baseball. If you take a look at the Vegas line and the game is projected to be close and high-scoring, you might have a shootout on your hands like Super Bowl LII in 2018. As long as you don’t pick either of the defenses, this situation could really pay off for you. You’ll get points from both offenses as they go back and forth throughout the game. The longer defenses stay on the field, the more tired they get, so that production is only going to increase as you head into the second half. Think about stacking as a series of correlations. If you stack your QB and WR, you’re betting that they’re going to connect for a lot of passing yards and a couple TD’s. You want these sorts of dependent relationships. Look at how good the two future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Randy Moss were when they were in New England together. If you took Brady and Moss, not only were you getting two players at the top of their game, every time they connected you would rack up points with a compounding effect.

You can think about correlations for defenses, too. If you pick a defense to hold their opponent to a few points, the correlation strategy would be to pick that team’s RB as well. If the defense does what it’s supposed to, the team will likely maintain a lead throughout the game and run the ball a lot to wind down the clock. You’ll also want to examine Vegas lines for all the games on the slate to look for potential full game stacks, to note games to avoid, and to help predict game flow. If the over/under for the game is in the mid to high 50s and the spread is minimal, the betting world is expecting a back-and-forth shootout, an ideal situation for DFS and full game stack purposes.

Vegas is only a prediction tool, though, and games with lower totals could provide the same high-scoring shootout with the added bonus of low ownership, so don’t be afraid to full game stack a lower Vegas total game. You can also take a look at the games with a low over/under and pick up one of those defenses. Use the over/under as a reference point for the players and team projections you are crunching.

Check out the spreads as well. If a team is heavily favored, you can use that information to your advantage, as we discussed with blowouts, and pick up the RB that will get a lot of touches late in the game to run down the clock. Likewise, if a team is expected to lose big, that would be a good sign that you should target their QB or top WR. For full game stacks to pay off, though, you want the game where two bad defenses are squaring off, and you can anticipate a shootout. Then the plan is to stack four to six players with proper correlations. A good combination would be two to four QB-WR TE from your predicted trailing team along with one to three RB-WR-TE from your predicted leading team. Simply put, combine whoever you think will come out on top with an RB and some receivers, along with the trailing team’s QB and receivers. Then, to round out your team, you can sprinkle in some value players or high-end guys from other games.

Your strategy should be different depending on the kind of game you’re playing, though. In 50/50s and Double Ups, where half of the field is getting a payout and you just need to finish somewhere in the top half in order to get paid, you want consistency. Take the players who perform well week in, week out and who are in great matchups. Don’t take chances in these games, as it doesn’t pay to gamble on the hopes of finishing first, but it does pay to raise your floor and minimize your risk.

With GPP tournaments, though, you’re trying to win the whole thing and beat the field. This is where taking risks will pay off for you. Identifying more high-risk, high-reward players will be worth your time. Players who aren’t highly owned would be a good fit for these tournaments, as every point you accumulate with them will jump you up the rankings, as you’ll be one of few players with them on your roster. These high-risk players could be guys who have been injured but are coming off bye weeks or guys who haven’t produced very much thus far but are facing an exploitable defense. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, you can swap out players until their game starts at kickoff. A great way to use this window to your advantage in tournaments is by filling your FLEX position wisely. If you put the player with the latest start time in that spot, you can sub in an RB, WR, or TE if your FLEX player goes down to illness or injury, giving the FLEX position even more flexibility with swaps later on in the day pending injury news or where your lineup stands. It will open up more players for you to choose from and more opportunities to make late swaps to low-owned players. If you’re way out of contention heading into the last games of the slate, this is your opportunity to find players who aren’t owned very heavily but have the ability to break out for a huge game and swap them into your lineup. Assuming that you are almost drawing dead and you need a miracle, your best possible scenario is to take a shot on a high-risk, boom-or-bust player who you believe will be low-owned. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain, so if you find yourself in this position, roll the dice and take a chance.

To help you make decisions, you should also know what the pros in the field are saying. Follow the news and insider reports as they come out throughout the week. Things change in the NFL with each passing day and practice. Watch the one-on-one matchups and break each matchup down to its core. Be leery of shutdown cornerbacks and strong linebacking cures. Unlike in baseball, good offense beats good defense. So, if you have a great WR going up against a great shutdown CB, he’s probably still going to get points for you. Stick with that pick if the correlation makes sense and your gut tells you to.

“Today I will do what others won’t, so tomorrow I can do what others can’t.” –Jerry Rice

Just like with MLB DFS, the more research you do and the more you play, the easier all of this will get. There are many sources out there with a ton of articles, podcasts, and optimizers to help you out. If you spend some time each week reading the tips from the experts before you make up your lineups, you should see some improvement as you go. Develop a routine you use every week you play and designate ample time each week to do your research. Continue to refine your process and make the necessary changes week to week until you perfect your process. Before you know it, you’ll have the week where all the stars align, you get a top finish in a big tournament, and cash in your first big payout.

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