thumbs-up-solid
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
START FREE TRIAL
 
thumbs-up-solid
START FREE TRIAL
thumbs-up-solid
START FREE TRIAL
Home / Will Zalatoris / Page 2
Tag:

Will Zalatoris

Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks and analysis is back this week, helping you construct some winning teams for the AT&T Byron Nelson at a new PGA tour stop.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, strong field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • First year at new course
  • The course: TPC Craig Ranch (McKinney, TX)
    • Par 72: 7,468 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Rowlett Creek runs through course, forcing layups and risk/reward shots
    • Birdie-fest expected, but no course history for PGA means some could struggle
    • Not many short par 3s (3/4 are 215+ yards), six par 4s over 450 yards
  • Decent weather expected and the wind doesn’t look like a huge issue so far
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4: (450-500), Proximity (175-200 & 200+)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Pricing is pretty tight this week, so finding value is going to be important – but with Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal we are left with just two golfers in the elite $11K range. Bryson’s form and his putting stats make him a little better choice than Rahm, but it was a very bizarre week for the reigning U.S. Open champ. Length is a significant advantage this week and we know Bryson has that in spades.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahm’s overall game (with an emphasis on tee game and putting) make him an obvious favorite this week, and your exposure will most likely be dictated by what value range you settle on with the rest of your builds. The missed cut at the Wells Fargo will keep some folks off him, but he’s still notched seven top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments.  

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,700) – The streak of events without a missed cut ended abruptly last week, but it’s a home game for Willie Z, who said he’s been playing here for half his life. I expect a huge bounce back for him and I really like his game off the tee and on the greens. Zalatoris has excellent metrics in the focus stat categories and is on the short list of players in this field that rank (over the last 36 rounds) inside the top 25 of both key proximity ranges 175-200 (fourth) and 200-plus (21st).

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,500) – I almost always have some shares of Fitzpatrick in PGA DFS, and while he’s okay tee-to-green, he really excels on the greens – which could be a huge factor on a course where guys will need to get hot with the flat stick to win. I tend to go heavier on Fitzy ownership when he’s playing Florida venues, but there’s no reason to think his debut win couldn’t come n Dallas. He’ll be a staple of my GPPs, especially the lineups where I fade that pricey $10-11K+ range.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Daniel Berger (GPP), Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,400) – Just like his buddy Will, Scheffler is on home turf looking for another Top 10 finish – something he’s been searching for since February when he notched a solo fifth at the WGC-Workday. He struggled on the greens at the Valspar, but his T2G game is solid and the price is fair.

Marc Leishman (DK $9,200) – It’s easy to forget about Leishman if you didn’t watch his win at the Zurich Classic alongside fellow Aussie Cameron Smith, because he hasn’t played in a standard PGA Tour event since the Masters, when he finished T5. A fine GPP play but far from safe since he missed the cut at both the Players and API.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,000) – His numbers putting on Bentgrass are pretty atrocious, but as Joel and Sia mentioned in the breakdown, a hot putter could have him holding a trophy come Sunday. I won’t go overboard in GPPs and will probably leave him off my single-entry builds but staying ahead of the field makes sense for his upside.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – He’s 35-1 to win the tournament outright, and I agree with Joel and Sia that it’s a good price. I like Kim for basically all formats this week as he’s shown some consistency since a string of missed cuts around February (MC at Farmers, AT&T Pebble Beach, Genesis, API). Ownership shouldn’t get too high, and he checks most of the boxes this week.

Luke List (DK $8,400) – Like Garcia, List’s biggest unknown from week-to-week is his putting, so there’s plenty of risk in rostering him. The T6 at the Wells Fargo points to a start of one of the hot stretches he’s known for, so I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs and will consider him for single-entry.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100) – I’ve been writing up Schwartzel for a few weeks in a row now (since his inclusion in my Masters picks, when he finished T26), and while I’m not quite as high on him to win outright as Sia and Joel (he’s 55-1), I think he’s a solid bet for a Top 25 and there’s nothing to hate about his game right now.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch’s irons have been on fire over the last few tournaments he’s played, and while his putting had been bad the week he missed the cut at the Valspar, he bounced back win a T26 at the Well Fargo and seems poised for a solid finish this week in Texas. I like the price and the Top 15 upside.

Also consider: Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Keith Mitchell, Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Camilo Villegas (DK $7,500) – Don’t look now, but in Villegas’s quest to regain his tour card, he’s put together four Top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments, including a T8 at the Honda Classic and T11 at the recent Valspar Championship. He’s striking and putting it well, and while he did withdraw form the Wells Fargo, that may just have been to prepare for this tournament on a course where he felt he might have an advantage.

Update: Villegas has withdrawn from the tournament.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,400) – Sneds heads into the week in solid form, and the veteran grinder with the signature pop-stroke putter has made four of his past five cuts, including a T6 at the Valero and a T11 at the Valspar. Normally his ball-striking is horrendous, but he’s notched positive strokes T2G in three consecutive starts and he’s a birdie-maker – especially on Bentgrass. I normally don’t look his way on courses that require elite SG: BS numbers, but this week he fits the bill.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – I like long hitters who can make lots of birdies, and Kizzire (though not the best on approach or with his irons) fills out that mold. When there’s little talk about hard-to-hit fairways and punishing rough, that’s my cue to include Kizzire in my player pool. His last impressive finish was T9 at the Valero Texas Open, but I’m counting on a Top 25 this week from the 6-foot-5 tour veteran.

James Hahn (DK $7,100) – This price range isn’t filled with too many sure things, and Hahn is far from a cash game play considering his three straight MCs. But it’s possible he’ still recovering from a rib injury and the week he feels better might be the week he starts a stretch of made cuts and decent finishes. Hahn is always a guy I look to for value in GPPs, and the fact that he finished second in a Korn Ferry championship on this golf course in 2012 means it’s a great place to get on the good foot and retrieve some of the confidence that’s essential to his game.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,000) – I’m not the only one who think Clark is a solid play at the Byron Nelson this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think he’ll still stay under the radar as a fine GPP play. Clark is insanely long off the tee and is just the kind of golfer who can get hot on a course where there’s no real history to speak of. Giddyup!

Andrew Putnam (DK $6,700) – He’s a putting demon on Bentgrass, and nobody is going to be on him this week. He’s one of about five or six players under $7K who I wouldn’t play in over 10% of GPPs, but who you can comfortably roster in the 5-10% range and not risk tanking too many lineups.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – There’s been plenty of chatter about the $7,000-7,500 guys including Vincent Whaley, Patrick Rodgers (after that scorching Thursday-Friday last week) and even Jhonattan Vegas, who everybody but me seems to be on this week, but Hadley seems to be the forgotten man in a value range that could be crucial if you’re rostering guys like DeChambeau and Rahm.

More value golfers to consider: Doug Ghim, Sepp Straka, Jhonattan Vegas, Scott Piercy, Patrick Rodgers, Vincent Whaley, Brice Garnett, Josh Teator, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – Hossler is a pretty good putter (T31 in SG:P heading into last week), and he’s an even better putter on Bentgrass, where he’s gained .458 strokes on average over his past 69 rounds. It’s a tough price range this week but Hossler could find his way into some of my GPPs.

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – TPC Craig Ranch is his home course (he’s a member), and he actually won the Byron Nelson at its old venue. Kang also loves Bentgrass, where he gains over a half stroke on average. There are wore narratives to hang your hat on.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – I’m not certain just how popular he’ll get this week, but I really love Ventura as a punt play in this severely discounted price range. He’s one of the best putters around and some projections have him squarely in the Top 50 this week – which means he’s a perfect final piece for all kinds of roster builds.

Additional GPP punts: Tyler McCumber (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 156 golfers STACKED with talent
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020
  • 2019 champion: Max Homa (-15 over Joel Dahmen at -12)
  • The course: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, NC)
    • Par 71: 7,521+ yards – the longest Par 71 on the PGA Tour
    • Bermuda greens (Champion G12 Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed)
    • Beast of a long, tough track with final three holes dubbed “The Green Mile”
    • Bomb-and-gouge more in play this week, as longer hitters and good drivers seem to prevail
  • Rain in forecast before tourney days but mostly sunny skies during competition
  • Late Friday 10 mph gusts expected, which is common – but wind only getting to 13-15 on the Sunday forecast – so keep early Friday and Sunday in mind for showdowns
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity 175-200 & 200+, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!

Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.

Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.

Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.

Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.

Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.

Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Solid field of 136 golfers missing only a few big names
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Last year’s champion: Webb Simpson
  • The course: Harbour Town Golf Links (Pete Dye design; Hilton Head Island, SC)
    • Par 71: 7,121 yards
    • TifEagle Bermuda greens
    • Driving it great not important – because some spots in rough provide fine scoring opportunities
    • Small greens that nobody hits with regularity makes approach and putting key stats
    • Coastal breezes can affect play and reach gale force
    • Last year’s event had almost no wind, so scores were much lower than usual
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Around the Green, Fairways Gained, Good Drives Gained, Proximity (150-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,600) – DJ is a South Carolina-born golfer who went to college in Myrtle Beach (Coastal Carolina), but this isn’t his type of golf course. Still – even though he’s fared poorly here in the past and doesn’t look too appealing on my model (No. 16), he can’t be completely ignored. The missed cut at the Masters and his relatively poor course history should keep him from higher ownership, so I might take a shot in some GPPs.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Simpson is the defending champion at Harbour Town and the chalkiest golfer on the board this week, but I don’t think I can endorse a full fade because he’s just so good on the greens – and his course history is quite impressive (no worse than T16 in his last four appearances here). He was T12 at the Masters last week and is a solid bet for a top 10 at the RBC – he just might not be necessary to roster in GPPs if he doesn’t crack the Top 5.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – His approach play is second-to-none on tour, he managed to keep it together for a T18 at Augusta last week, and he most recently won in February at the WGC-Workday. Morikawa is projected to be the third-highest owned golfer this week and while there is some merit to a fade considering his T64 finish here during a stretch of poor play in 2020, he’s No. 7 overall on my model and a tough player to get away from in PGS DFS when you consider the metric data.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger is No. 2 overall on my model and his ownership should come in well under Simpson’s – making him a fine single-entry and large-field GPP alterative. He’s only played here twice, but finished T33 in 2019 and T3 in 2020 – so it’s clear he likes the venue and the course layout. Berger doesn’t handle al the Pete Dye courses as well as he does this one, but I’m seriously considering him to be the “spend up” golfer in my core of single-entry builds.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Cameron Smith (GPP), Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Paul Casey (DK $9,200) – His last performance of note at the RBC Heritage was way back in 2014, when he finished T18, and since then he’s had a couple of missed cuts (2016 & 2018). But my mixed model (fourth overall) and the course layout are pointing in his direction this week, especially considering his SG:APP numbers in recent play. Course history hounds might stay away, but there’s a chance he garners ownership because of name recognition and recency bias.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,100) – The guy calls this his “favorite place in the world” and he really wants this to be the event where he gets his first win – if not at a major. I really like Fitzpatrick’s chances at bouncing back from his T34 at the Masters with another top 10 finish this week, as he’s shown improvement at this venue over the past few years and has two Top 15s in his last three tries here. He’s a great putter and despite some occasionally shaky approach play from 175-200, ranks 17th in my model, just behind DJ. I won’t be all-in on ownership, but I’ll be slightly ahead of the field, probably around 20-25%.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900) – Ancer ranks No. 6 overall on my model this week and finished solo second here in 2020, just one stroke behind Simpson. Both will be chalky, but he comes at a huge discount from the defending champion and offers almost as much upside with his solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches. If there’s an area where he can’t match Webb, it’s on the greens.

Shane Lowry (DK $8,500) – The Irishman is Stick’s pick to win the event and I couldn’t have been more elated when he announced that during the breakdown video – especially after he lauded Hideki Matsuyama last week before the Japanese sensation won the Masters. Lowry is No. 21 overall on my model, has been striking the ball very well lately, and has a T3 here in 2019. His ownership isn’t expected to surpass 10%, and there’s plenty of upside here compared to most of the other players in the mid range.

Harris English (DK $8,400) – English had a rough patch of two MCs at the Farmers and Waste Management, and a final round 80 at the WGC-Workday put him near the caboose of the no-cut event in solo 66th place. But before that he had some solid finishes, and since the WGC event he’s finished T26 (API at Bay Hill) and T21 (Masters). This is a guy you want to jump on as he starts rounding into form.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,900) – I loved him last week at the Masters and he rewarded me with a T12 – a solid finish for his price and ownership level. My concern this week is that he might get a little too popular on the heels of that performance, as he’s still priced under $8K and his name is fresh in the minds of the leaderboard watchers. But if we’re choosing between him and Charley Hoffman (also just under $8K and projected for a similar ownership percentage), I’ll take Si Woo all day.

Russell Henley (DK $7,900) – The breakdown boys danced around the topic of Henley, but I’ll take my stand regardless of his spotty course history (his last two tries here are MCs), largely because he fares extremely well in my mixed model (third overall). Another knock on Henley from a DFS perspective is an inflated ownership projection that currently puts him as the ninth most popular play in the field.

Also consider: Corey Conners (Cash), Tommy Fleetwood (GPP), Brian Harman, Kevin Na (GPP), Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Brandon Grace, Ian Poulter

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Chris Kirk (DK $7,500) – We have a general consensus among the WinDaily writers that Kirk looks like a fine play for most formats this week in DFS, though his ownership seems to be creeping up as folks ogle his string of made cuts since the Waste Management and his three Top 10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He’s okay for single-entry and cash games and I’ll have shares right around 10-15% in my GPP builds.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – Munoz is a solid shotmaker and he’s coming off a somewhat disappointing week at Augusta, where he placed T40 after a T9 finish at the Valero Open. I’d probably steer clear in cash games, but he’s fine for large-field GPPs and should stay below the 5% ownership threshold. I’ll be giving him a look, even if I prefer the discount offered by the next couple of guys on this list.

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,300) – If course history matters here (and it does), then we have to consider Streelman, who has a couple of top ten finishes in his last three appearances on Hilton Head Island. He’s a great value for all formats and Sia even staked his claim that Streelman will be the first round leader at long odds (66-1). The tour veteran is 20th overall in my model and he’ll be a staple of my GPP lineups.

Michael Thompson (DK $7,200) – Thompson isn’t nearly as safe as Streelman in this range, but he’s tenth overall in my model and does offer upside – despite a relatively high projected ownership for a guy with his brand of spotty play. His popularity can be explained by three straight made cuts (including a T34 at the Masters last week) as well as a sparkling course history that includes top ten finishes in his last two appearances.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,100) – He’s firmly in play as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play, and both Joel and Nick like him this week too – probably because he’s finished T8 and T6 in his last two runs here. I never like going too hard on Poston, but he’s definitely in play this qweek.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – He’s got the “site of his marriage proposal” narrative going this week, and he’s No. 11 overall in my model. He’s a great play in all formats and on my short list for single-entry GPP consideration. He may not have the upside of Poston or Thompson, but a breakthrough is still very possible.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – The breakdown touched on how NeSmith might be the better play in cash games, but Ghim could be a fine PGA DFS play in this range for large-field GPPs. The youngster is a first-timer at the RBC Heritage, but he’s made 12 of his last 16 cuts and hits awesome approach shots.

More value golfers to consider: Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Davis (GPP), Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Harold Varner III, Ryan Moore (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Russell Knox (GPP), Kyle Stanley (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,500) – I had a very productive PGA DFS run using Kizzire in GPPs in the 2020-21 transition in December-January, and he’s been okay if nor great since, with a T9 at the Valero ranking as his best finish since his T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s a longer hitter sprays it around a bit off the tee and doesn’t typically light the world on fire on shorter courses, but Kizzire is a verified putting demon who can get hot with the flat stick and make a boatload of birdies.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – I usually finish up my article as I’m listening to the breakdown, and I’m very glad that Sia mentioned him as a possibly mispriced golfer in the value/punt range. Hoge is a solid T2G golfer who hits good approaches 175-200 (No. 11 in the field), and he’s a decent putter with the ability to finish in the Top 10. I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field GPPs.

Scott Piercy (DK $6,300) – Piercy gets inclusion here based on his T3 finish here in 2019 and T16 in 2018, but his form in 2021 has not been great. Perhaps something clicks this week at the site of a venue where he’s had success and he can revisit some of the Top 20 form he flashed in October-November of 2020. He’s a large-field GPP play (maybe one or two lineups out of 20) with some Top 20 upside this week, but don’t go overboard.

Additional GPP punts: Tom Lewis, Jason Dufner, Chesson Hadley, Danny Lee, Bo Hoag, Tyler Duncan

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: The 2021 Masters

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams to boost your bankroll!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced field of 88 golfers with all the big names
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties (10-stroke rule NOT in effect)
  • Last year’s champion: Dustin Johnson (November)
  • The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross design)
    • Par 72: 7,475 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tournament is back to its usual April date, so the course will play differently than it did five months ago
    • Patrons are back at Augusta National
    • Winners typically come from PM Thursday/AM Friday groups
  • Wind will blow, course should play tough if it doesn’t rain at all
  • Focus Stat Categories: Course History, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Birdie or Better %, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – Because of this week’s soft pricing and slew of viable golfers in the $7K range, getting DJ into your teams won’t be that much of a hassle, even with one more $9K and up player in the mix. Despite two less-than-stellar finishes at the WGC-Workday and Players Championship, DJ still offers the most consistent upside at this venue, where he won in November. It’s playing differently now, but he knows that. Don’t overthink this – get exposure to DJ in all formats.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – The Rahm/DJ combo leaves you with $6,875 per golfer for the remaining four slots on DK, and with some of the talent in this field, even those stars-and-scrubs teams don’t look too scrubby. But there are some key golfers I like in the $7.5-$8.5K range that I won’t be able to get if I use the top two salaries – so most of my teams will feature one or the other, and in some cases, neither. Rahm, a new father, seems a little more cash-viable than the next two guys, and he’s fine for single-entry GPPs.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,800) – I know he’s in Sia’s initial picks column and Joel loves him – and I agree he has plenty of upside – but Bryson’s aggressive approach on Par 4s worries me a bit. He tends to attack those holes and try to create his own scoring chances instead of treading water and waiting for his opportunities. If it didn’t work in November, when he finished T34, it may not work in April, even with the new driver that he says will mitigate the shot dispersal. I’ll tread lightly with him, but I think he’s fun to watch and root for.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,100) – Rory may very well be the same golfer who was dominating before the pandemic, but it’s hard to see that in his results. Still – he managed to finish T5 here in November and certainly has enough Top 10 finishes at Augusta (and no finish worse than T21 in his last five tries) to land in the Top 5 again. He’s never won here, but he’s guaranteed for low ownership relative to the rest of this bunch and that really intrigues me.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – Like Sia, I like the price on Cantlay and think he’s about as solid an overall golfer as you can find in the field, without any glaring weaknesses and sporting a game face for the ages. Much like Patrick Reed, Cantlay is not here to make friends, and Augusta National is a fine a venue as any for his first major win. Ownership will probably end up between 15-20%, but I really like him for single-entry GPPs and I’ll have exposure in all formats.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (GPP), Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400) – Fresh off a win at the Valero, folks will be dying to play Spieth at the site of his greatest triumph and most epic collapse. He knows the course, he’s playing great golf (even if he’s still a little erratic off the tee and on some approaches), and I’ll have a hard time fading him, even when his ownership spikes. Last week I said I was excited to play him, and I clearly didn’t play him enough. My single-entry team had 5/6 make the cut and cash in every instance, but it earned about one-hundredth of what it should have because I had Tony Finau (the lone MC) instead of Spieth as my big spend.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,000) – Simpson’s course history is a lesson in perseverance and scholarship, as he’s learned how to “master” Augusta in recent years. Now in his tenth year playing the Masters, he’s in position for another Top 10 and continued, under-the-radar success. I’ll have Simpson at about 25% in my GPPs and he’s on the short list for my single-entry player pool. I may even play around with some Milly builds that have him as my only $9K and up player, and everybody else on the team is $7,700 and up.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,700) – The experts are giving Hovland no love this week, and while he’s in the Top 20 of my model, I can understand why – as a really strong short game seems like a must to win at Augusta. Hovland may not be the best around the greens, but he’s awesome on Par 5s and that’s where most of the scoring is done at this golf course. If his ownership dips a little bit from the early projections, I’ll increase my shares.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,300) – I normally don’t play a lot of Matsuyama because of his erratic putting, but he has a bunch of Top 20 finishes at Augusta because of his amazing ball-striking and performance “around” the greens. His overall short game still ranks in the Top 40 of the field for Augusta and its closest course comps, and he seems to know where to miss in off the tee here, since he’s navigated his poor tee shots well in the past.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitzpatrick could have been priced at $9K and I’d have interest, because this is a course where he could win – if he can just elude the one bad round he seems to have at every major. His form is alarmingly consistent, with five straight Top 20s internationally and four straight within the Top 11 since the Genesis. He’s a fine play in all formats and there’s always the chance he finally breaks through.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,900) – Garcia still hits it like a beast off the tee (long and straight) and he’s got the requisite experience at Augusta to tackle this difficult layout and win – or at least contend – again. He’s one of my favorite value plays in the mid-range and while there’s inherent risk with him because of his volatility, it’s a week without too many guarantees.

Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – A missed cut in 2019 (which started out with an uncharacteristic 81) is just about the only recent blemish on Casey’s record at Augusta, which includes a T6 in 2015, T4 in 2016 and solo 6th in 2017. He’s had a monster resurgence in 2021, with six straight finishes inside the Top 12, including a win in Dubai and T5s at both Pebble Beach and the Players.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Bubba Watson (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,500) – As long as his back doesn’t lock up before his tee time, Louis should be a solid pick this week at Augusta, where he almost always plays well. In many ways, Oosty is like the still-under-40, cheaper version of Lee Westwood. The South African has one thing that Westwood doesn’t – and that’s a major championship victory. He’s among the top golfers in this value range.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,300) – What Zalatoris lacks in experience he makes up for in talent and fearlessness, and he proved in the U.S. Open at Winged Foot he can take whatever a golf course and extremely windy conditions has to offer. He’s a solid bet to make the cut, and even though he’s a first-timer at Augusta, he’s played casual rounds and seems to understand (from quotes and interviews) how to play the course.

Max Homa (DK $7,100) – The fact that Homa won at Riviera factors into his inclusion in the value picks, because he’s got minimal experience here (just a missed cut at the November event) and finishes just inside the Top 40 on my model. But if I’m looking for GPP plays with confidence and upside, he’s a solid pick.

Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – If you’re looking to avoid chalk in GPPs and assume more risk, then maybe you’d prefer to spend the extra $100 and grab Victor Perez, who should come in under 5% ownership. But Conners is a much safer pick, with two made cuts in two tries and a top 10 in November. Granted, we could see a few three-putts and greenside abominations from the Canadian ball-striking sensation, but he’s so good tee-to green it might not matter. A staple in cash games for his low price and a guy to watch this year.

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,700) – The more I dig into the windy weather and the mixed model, the more I like Kim as a GPP risk-reward play. He’s made three straight cuts at Augusta after missing in his 2017 debut, and he’s got oodles of Top 25 upside this year. He already has one 2021 win (at the AMEX) and while he missed some cuts in February and withdrew at Bay Hill, his last two finishes are a T9 at the Players and T23 at the Valero last week. I’ll be massively overweight on the field and I’m thinking about using him on my largest field single-entry GPP.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,600) – It’ll be interesting to see how well Munoz makes the adjustment form his Masters debut in November to a much harder and faster course this week, but his recent form is solid (aside from a MC at the Players) and the price is fair. The Colombian golfer sports solid metrics on most of the course comps (excluding TPC Sawgrass) and could be an option as a last piece.

More value golfers to consider: Joaquin Niemann (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Billy Horschel, Victor Perez (GPP), Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Christian Bezuidenhout, Danny Willett, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Champ (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,500) – He’s a Masters virgin but has been practicing this week with Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia to learn the ropes of this famously difficult risk-reward layout. He seems to play the comp courses well and can get insanely hot with his short game, so I’m very interested in using him in a bunch of GPPs.

Kevin Na (DK $6,500) – Playing Na is always a bold move because he’s so prone to withdrawing due to injury and his game can be erratic, but his short game is elite and he’s underpriced for his upside here. He’s the ultimate GPP punt this week and he’s never all that popular because he scares the crap out of people.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,300) – A former Masters champion who placed third here in 2017, I’ll be using Schwartzel on a few of my GPP teams where I need salary relief from one or two spots because I’m playing two $10K+ studs. He’s in the top 50 of my model, so at this price we’re looking for a made cut and a couple birdie streaks during the weekend to land him a Top 25.

Additional punts: Robert Macintyre (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Stewart Cink, Bernhard Langer

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Enormous, elite field of 154 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • No 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye design
    • Par 72 (7,189 yards)
    • Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf course
    • Plays longer in March than it did in May
    • Bermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialis
    • Look for big scoring spreads like at Bay Hill
    • Wind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill
  • 6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge field
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.

Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.

Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.

Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.

More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie Hughes

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.

Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.

Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP)

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • 2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
  • The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
    • Par 72 (7,466 yards)
    • Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
    • Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
    • Pressure golf at its most demanding
    • Bermuda greens and fairways
  • Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele  (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Workday Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

Our weekly edition of PGA DFS picks is digging for gold at the WGC-Workday Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field limited to 72 golfers (49 of the Top 50 OWGR in the field)
  • No Cut
  • 2020 winner: Patrick Reed (-14)
  • The course: The Concession Golf Club (Bradenton, FL – Jack Nicklaus design)
    • Par 72 (7,424 yards)
    • New PGA Tour venue with no course history and tough rating (76.7)
    • Lots of water and bunkers in play
    • Bermuda greens and fairways
    • Similar course layouts include Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, TPC Southwind, Doral and the Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village GC
  • Wind could play a factor this week
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – We’ve got loads of golfers priced above $9,500 this week, and in the $10K+ range I’m most interested in Rahm in all formats. His game translates well to all types of venues and his play is consistent enough that he just doesn’t need much course history to find the leaderboard. He’s tops in my mixed model and with no cut, he should be able to relax a bit more the first couple of days and let his ball-striking and overall game speak for itself.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800) – The X-Man excels in no-cut events and checks all the boxes in the focus stat categories. Both Rahm and Schauffele are decent bets for top 10 finishes here and while I will have shares of both Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, they aren’t my priorities this week. There may not be a better selection for a Top 5 finish than Xander this week, and that should be reflected in his ownership. If not, we can take advantage in large-field GPPs as well.

Rory McIlroy, (DK $10,400) – I’m a little bit concerned about his performance last week at the Genesis, where he lost strokes to the field T2G and on the putting surface. But if there’s a cure to his ills it’s a return to Florida where he dominates these types of venues and seems a lot more comfortable on Bermuda. There’s been talk that longer hitters will have an advantage here, and given his recent struggles McIlroy is a perfect contrarian GPP play at a small discount, since this could be the week he hoists a trophy again.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,900) – While there’s no professional course history at The Concession, Rahm, Schauffele and a much leaner Bryson all competed here in the 2015 NCAA Championship – which DeChambeau won. His game is a little different now but he seems to be fairly confident heading into this WGC event. As long as I don’t get cold feet before lock, I’ll probably have shares of him in large-field GPPs but the price seems fair given the risk.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,600) – If there’s a value play in the top tier, it’s probably Hatton, whose game is strong in just about every focus stat category (he’s No. 11 on my model). He performs well against stiff competition and the relative lack of familiarity with seeing his name every week could keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Justin Thomas (GPP), Tony Finau (GPP)

*UPDATE: I had Patrick Cantlay listed as an option to consider, but he has withdrawn.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,400) – The course will be a tough test for Hovland, but he should do well on the scoring holes this week and he’s No. 16 on my model. With three straight finishes in the top six, his game looks sharp these days and he doesn’t lose any points for lack of course experience. I’d like to be ahead of the field in big GPPs, and he’s on my short list for cash and single-entry tournaments.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,100) – He’s not an exciting pick, but he doesn’t make a lot of bogeys and this putter is tops in this field both overall and on Bermuda. If you’re looking in the direction of approach, short game and “thinking” your way around this course (over bombers), then Simpson provides decent value given his strengths.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,000) – Surprisingly, Morikawa fares better on Bermuda and overperforms on difficult courses, and his elite SG: APP numbers (No. 1 in the field) don’t suffer much on the similar courses we identified in the course bullets (No. 6 in the field). We know he struggles on the greens (he, Joaquin Niemann and Hideki Matsuyama are the worst putters in my model’s Top 20), but the lack of a cut (and the surface) might help him relax.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is easily my favorite play between $8,500 and $9K, and he’s No. 10 overall on my mixed model with solid performance at Florida/Nicklaus venues. This should be a course where he flourishes, and he’s undoubtedly rested and ready to post a Top 10 finish among these giants. Even if he’s popular in GPPs, I’m using him in my core.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500) – Fitzpatrick putts well pretty much everywhere, but Bermuda is his preferred surface. The lack of prowess off the tee is bit concerning in this star-studded field, but he could be an under-the-radar play and I’ll have some shares in GPPs.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,100) – Like Morikawa, Niemann is an excellent ball striker with solid approach and off-the-tee numbers – even among this stiff competition. His bugaboo is putting, and that may help contribute to a few too many three-putt bogeys and some lost strokes to the field. Still – he finished solo second at the no-cut Sentry Tournament of Champions and T2 at the Sony Open before a T43 last week at the Genesis, so the form is solid.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,000) – Sia likes Willie Z as your first-round leader, and that’s a pretty good call considering the impressive stamp he’s made so early in his PGA career. The fact that this value-laden rookie has already snuck into the Top 50 in the world and qualified for this event says a lot about his game, and like some of the other youngsters playing here this week, he doesn’t lose any points for lack of experience.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,900) – On the opposite end of the experience spectrum, we have the veteran South African – whose most recent finish was a T11 at the Waste Management Open a few weeks ago. Bermuda isn’t his favorite surface and he doesn’t pop for his performance on Florida or similar courses, but I just can’t count him out at this price point. He’s a competitive golfer in any field and his ownership should be well under 10%.

Also consider: Daniel Berger, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Justin Rose, Matthew Wolff (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,500) – The thing that stood out the most about Garcia (apart from the MC last week at the Genesis) is that he absolutely thrives on Florida courses. In fact, when I isolated SG:APP for the similar courses (identified in the preview bullets), he came out tops in the field. We know he’s a great ball striker who posts excellent SG:OTT numbers, and ball striking goes a long way in no-cut events.

Harris English (DK $7,500) – English hasn’t been playing well lately, but the price is just too low and he’s the only sub-$8K golfer who makes the top 20 of my mixed model this week. He won the last no-cut tournament he played (the Sentry) and there’s just no way I won’t have heavy shares of him in all formats. A great value play for both SE and cash, and a guy that will be party of my core for large-field GPPs.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – While we don’t really have course horses this week, Leishman pops in my model for the venue attributes that matter and he really overperforms on Bermuda. He might be popular for GPPs this week, but it’s not terrible chalk given his upside and value.

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,200) – Speaking of value, I’m right there with Sia’s interpretation of a DK misprice for Palmer this week. He’s the 36th most expensive golfer this week (middle of the 72-man pack) but he’s No. 25 on my model and he’s got much shorter odds to win than golfers priced $500 to $1,000 more than him. He’s far from the best putter in the field, but he’s worth a look in all formats.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,000) – Kisner’s only knock among our focus stats is SG:OTT, but he’s in the top 10 in SG:APP, top five in putting, and ranks No. 23 o my overall model – pretty amazing for a $7K golfer. Like Palmer, I think that he’s mispriced and I’ll be taking full advantage in all formats – even considering him for my single-entry GPP team. Kisner’s last no-cut event saw him finish T24 and while he hasn’t played since mid-January, I’m excited about his prospects in Florida.

Abraham Ancer (DK $6,800) – A T17 finish at the Sentry and T5 at the AMEX stick out as highlights among his last five starts, which included two missed cuts – something we don’t have to worry about this week. He probably won’t be a member of my core build (if I end up having one this week) but Ancer makes lots of sense as a final piece under $7K in GPPs.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700) – He’s been striking it well recently and we know he can putt – on just about any surface. I have concerns about how well his game will translate to such a difficult, unknown type of track, and his performance on similar courses isn’t all that exciting (No. 52 in the field). If we’re rostering Lanto, it’s for his talent and ability to get the putter going well over the course of a guaranteed four days.

More value golfers to consider: Bubba Watson (GPP), Carlos Ortiz, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Rasmus Hojgaard

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,400) – Hughes gets hot with his putter pretty frequently, and he’s another guy who could post a super low score on a difficult course given a few cracks at it. He’s far from a cash game play and I wouldn’t include him in my single-entry builds, but I large-field GPPs where we have to get a little creative, he’s a fine last piece at this price point.

Erik van Rooyen (DK $6,200) – EVR is the only guy under $6,500 who makes my model’s top 30, and if he can stay away from the big number this week and strike the ball well for four days, we could see him threaten the leaderboard by Sunday. We don’t have a cut looming over him, so hopefully he can stay focused and let his sound overall game take flight.

Additional punts: Cameron Champ, Brendan Todd (GPP)

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am)

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 156 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)
  • The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
    • PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041
    • Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and Scottsdale
    • No third course, no amateurs this year
    • Poa annua greens
    • Iron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens
    • 6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger field
    • Wind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)
  • Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.

Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.

Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.

Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick Taylor

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.

Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.

More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin Chappell

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.

Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.

Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Field of 132 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • The courses: TPC Scottsdale
    • Par 71 – 7,261 yards
    • Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
    • Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
    • Fast Bermuda greens
  • 6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker field of 132 golfers, but JT and Koepka are here!
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
  • The course: El Camaleon Golf Club (Playa del Carmen, Mexico)
    • Par 71 (approx. 7,100 yards)
    • Resort course with combined landscapes: Mangrove jungles, limestone canals and oceanfront
    • Seashore Paspalum greens and fairways
    • Plenty of scoring chances for good approaches
    • Shorter, more accurate hitters could have success
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, Fairways Gained, GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,400) – He’s going to be hard to fade in GPPs, but that may be the way to get some leverage. In lineups where I fade him, I’ll grab some shares of Brooks Koepka.

Harris English (DK $10,100) – English is viable in all formats and I’ll run a few lineups with just him among the top tier and go balanced the rest of the way with in the $7-9K range. If I don’t do that with him, I’ll try the same with Hovland or Fowler.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,900) – The price is obscene, especially for a guy that doesn’t post a lot of Top 5 finishes, but he’s one of the best players in the field and he’s had a pretty good year. The Mexico native has also made three straight cuts here with two Top 10s.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,500) – He’s rocking three Top 15s among his last four tournaments, and the price is reasonable for the field. He’s got a chance at winning here after missed cuts in his first two tries at the Mayakoba.  

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Rickie Fowler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,200) – Zalatoris didn’t tee it up in November, but he had three top 10s in his first four starts this season and an amazing 13 top 20 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year. The 35-1 odds to win aren’t bad for an outright bet, either.

Corey Conners (DK $9,000) – The Canadian is threatening to join the Top 50 in the world, and despite some spotty finishes here, he’s a horse for this course – as everything should line up for him to break through. If you’re looking for a 25-1 guy to back, Conners might be your guy.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,900) – Ortiz will be super popular this week, because he’s playing in his native Mexico (like Ancer), he just won in Houston despite a relatively inconsistent 2020, and he finished second here last year. He’s not my favorite play in GPPs if his ownership gets over 15%, but I’ll have some shares.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Grillo’s ball striking T2G is excellent, and he’s a much better putter these days as well – a combo that makes me want to jump aboard again at this all-too-fair price in the mid-range. Add in that he’s 4-for-4 with three top 15s – and a ridiculous scoring average of 68.13 at Mayakoba – and he’s one of my favorite plays (and bets at 60-1) to win.

Charles Howell (DK $8,100) – Howell’s days of routine Top 10 finishes may be over, but he’s had success at the Mayakoba and his T3 at the 3M shows he can still get it done T2G. Not my favorite play, but steady enough to warrant usage in a few GPPs.  

Joel Dahmen (DK $8,000) – Dahmen seems to thrive on resort courses and posted a 61 in day two the RSM Classic (on the Seaside course), so he’s very capable of firing some low rounds. If he can keep it on the fairway, he can dial in a Top 15 finish.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,000) – Kizzire has been building on some serious momentum, and when he’s hitting fairways, he’s a dangerous golfer. He’s won here, he’s trending in the right direction and I love him at this relatively benign price point. Some experts actually like him to win this week, so he’ll be in most of my GPP builds, including single-entry.

Adam Long (DK $7,800) – Perhaps incongruously with his last name, Long isn’t a bomber, but he’s a prototypical second shot golfer with plenty of firepower in his iron play and a putter that can get things done. The T11 in Houston could give him some confidence heading into the last PGA calendar event of 2020.

Also consider: Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Todd, Alex Noren, Harold Varner (GPP), Scott Piercy, Russell Knox, Chez Reavie (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

John Huh (DK $7,400) – Huh won here in 2012 and has made the cut in all three of his events since returning from the COVID-19 layoff. The second-shot golfer finished T12 at the RSM after a sizzling weekend that saw him post 66-65, and his good memories at Mayakoba should make him a solid play this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,400) – A 24-year-old birdie maker who may not have the chops to win just yet, Ghim is certainly ready to start cracking some Top 10s and capitalizing on the low individual rounds that have helped him to two Top 15s in his last four starts.

Peter Malnati (DK $7,300) – He’s a GPP-only player because he hasn’t played well at this venue recently, but he’s got Top 25 upside and the game to succeed if he can keep making those birdies.

Pat Perez (DK $7,300) – The course history (three tops tens – including a win in 2016 – in his last four years here) is hard to ignore, but so is the form, which hasn’t been great. I like Perez this week for GPPs, though he’s ultimately a somewhat risky play for cash, even at a discount.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – I’m going back to the well (which ran dry for me at both the Masters and RSM) and hoping Hadwin can finally spike a top finish at a second-shot course that he likes (two T10 finishes in his last two tries).

More value golfers to consider: Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman (GPP), Denny McCarthy, Kyle Stanley, Vaughn Taylor, Brice Garnett, Max Homa (GPP), Xinjun Zhang (GPP), Robby Shelton (GPP), Ryan Armour

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I’m drawn to Burgoon because he finished T2 at the RSM and he’s made the cut in two of his three starts here at El Camaleon. He’s a GPP-only play but form and venue mean I’ll have some shares if I need a cheap golfer to fill out a tourney lineup.

Camron Percy (DK $6,400) – Percy digs tropical resort venues and he’s a solid performer on approach shots, so this price probably reflects his recent MC at the RSM, not necessarily his projected finish here. Take advantage, because there’s not a lot to look at under $6,500 this week.

Additional punts: Sung Kang, Rob Oppenheim, Kelly Kraft, Aaron Baddeley

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts
Older Posts

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

"*" indicates required fields

    Built with ConvertKit

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    WIN DAILY® RADIO
    Friday’s 8-10pm Est
    Sunday’s 7-9pm EST

    START FREE TRIAL

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    Close
    -
    00:00
    00:00

    Queue

    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00