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Travis Kelce

Week 4 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Patriots at Chiefs

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The season continues with the first of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the last two Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $14,100, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (DK $16,500, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Rex Burkhead (DK $10,500, FD $10,500)

Pricing is much softer this week and given the depressed pricing on the Patriots RBs and secondary receiving options (after Julian Edelman), it’s much easier to field a showdown lineup with Patrick Mahomes as captain.

I’m still very much interested in using RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and using him up top frees up even more salary to stack up Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce, or even WR Tyreek Hill.

The key to smashing this showdown will be which two Patriots offensive players you select, and there’s a few combos I have interest in. But we also need to get shares of Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson, who are both very affordable.

I also have plenty of interest in the Chiefs DST in this matchup, if for any other reason than this will not be your typical Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team, and the tight travel schedule and limited preparation could lead to more mistakes than we’ve become accustomed to. With Cam Newton (COVID-19) unavailable for Monday’s game, Brian Hoyer is the starting QB. And while his price is affordable, I don’t have a ton of interest in using him against the formidable Chiefs unit.

Both James White (who is playing but missed the last two weeks) and Julian Edelman (questionable, knee) are question marks, so the two best Patriots offensive players to target might be Rex Burkhead and N’Keal Harry. If Edelman is healthy, he’s probably worth using, and White (the definition of a boom-or-bust DFS play tonight) is a complete wild card with Sony Michel already ruled out and the Pats needing live bodies for their backfield.

Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Patriots-heavy stacks over the Chiefs tonight. I just don’t see it working out given the events of the past few days.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Build a showdown lineup without at least three Chiefs players – it’s not the time to get cute.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Patrick Mahomes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Rex Burkhead
Chiefs DST
Brian Hoyer
Julian Edelman (questionable)
James White
Harrison Butker
N’Keal Harry
Mecole Hardman
Damiere Byrd
Sammy Watkins
DeMarcus Robinson
Darrel Williams
Ryan Izzo
Nick Folk

4 years ago 0 comments

Week 3 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Chiefs at Ravens

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $19,500, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Travis Kelce (DK $15,000, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Pricing is incredibly tight this week for the Monday night showdown, with both QBs over $16K on FanDuel, making it nearly impossible to fit both in without punting more than one spot. But because of Lamar Jackson’s ability to take over the game (and let’s face it – his team is the favorite to win tonight), we have to consider him for the MVP spot. It’s a lot more feasible on FD, but the move on DraftKings may be to find a low-owned CPT by picking one of the TEs (Travis Kelce is my favorite play) or a different Chiefs position player who might find a loophole in the Ravens defense to exploit. I may have one or two lineups with Patrick Mahomes as MVP, but I prefer Jackson.

The matchup for Mahomes is bad, and it’s not much better for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but at least the latter’s ability to rack up PPR points (full on DK, half on FD) makes him a worthy flex play in Ravens stacks that focus on Jackson and TE Mark Andrews.

Tyreek Hill’s speed makes him worthy of consideration, and if we’re fading Hill then we’ve got to have some shares of Mecole Hardman, who’s yet to really break out this season despite his ubiquitous big-play ability.

The strategy of starting two Ravens RBs like Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins is viable, but assuming they both score enough to warrant inclusion means we’re probably using Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game with them instead of Lamar.

Normally I’d ignore the kickers, but in a game that could see this many points, we have to consider that some of them will come via the legs of Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker.

Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play both defenses in this one.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though sub-$2K players on DraftKings (who may have some impact in possible game narratives) include Gus Edwards (Ravens blowout) and Darwin Thompson (Darrel Williams ankle issues).

Lamar Jackson
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes
Mark Andrews
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tyreek Hill
Marquise Brown
Mark Ingram II
Justin Tucker
Harrison Butker
J.K. Dobbins
Mecole Hardman
Willie Snead IV
Ravens DST
Miles Boykin
DeMarcus Robinson
Gus Edwards
Darrel Williams
Chiefs DST
Sammy Watkins (questionable, neck)

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Texans at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s say I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP. At least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS: MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)

Lower-risk Contrarian #1: DeShaun Watson (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)

High-upside Contrarian #2: Will Fuller V (DK $12,000, FD $10,500)

High-risk Contrarian #3: Randall Cobb (DK $6,300, FD $8,500)

DK-only Punts: Chiefs DST ($5,100) and Darrel Williams ($2,700)

With the Chiefs listed as 9-10 point favorites with a 31.75 implied team total in the season opener, we’re going to see Mahomes as MVP in the vast majority of FD lineups and a healthy portion on DK. I’m calling the Chiefs rookie RB “CEH” to avoid too much typing, and I’m going to have a fair share of him at the top spot as well. He’s not a bad anchor if we want to build out with the Chiefs DST, Mahomes and a couple Texans.

The path to a low-owned lottery ticket with plenty of upside comes with a great deal of risk if we use Watson, but I’ll have at least one in five GPP lineups that uses this strategy. We’ve seen Watson have many an explosive second half with the Texans trailing by multiple scores and that’s just what could happen here if the Chiefs D does its job in the first half and relaxes with a two or three-score lead in the fourth quarter.

Fuller, when healthy (or simple active) is a dangerous man. He’s my favorite Texans player and another possible candidate. Whether Brandin Cooks sits or not, we can give Randall Cobb a huge bump, as he’s always capable of big plays out of the slot and a TD or two. Hint: DeShaun Watson loves throwing to the slot…

On DK, it might pair to have some shares of the Chiefs DST in the MVP slot if we’re looking to get three more Chiefs and one of the two Johnsons (David or Duke) with Fuller.

The largest unknown in this game is probably how the Chiefs will utilize their RBs (CEH, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson), so exploring some different combinations there will be key. I like Darrel Williams a lot because he’s the Chiefs’ top pass-blocking back and short-yardage guy – and he’ll see a handful of touches/targets with the possibility of 8-10 if he gets a “hot hand.” At just $2,700 (just $1,800 in a utility slot), he could be a gamebreaker if he hits his 15-20 point upside.

Week 1 NFL DFS: Utility options

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value:

Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce (questionable, knee)
Will Fuller
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Chiefs DST
David Johnson
Mecole Hardman
Duke Johnson
Darrel Williams
Harrison Butker
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Kenny Stills
Jordan Akins
Ka’imi’ Fairbairn
Brandin Cooks (questionable, quad)
Daniel Fells
Texans DST

Good luck this week and don’t hesitate to get in Discord and pepper our writers with any question you may have!

Image Courtesy of Smashdown Sports News

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Championship Sunday DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for the Championship Sunday DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Championship Sunday DFS – Titans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: Kansas City -7.5 | Over/Under 51

The first thing about this game is the total movement from the open because the spread has stayed steady at 7.5. It started at 51 in total and is up to 53 since the lines were released. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:

Over the line 37 times (48.7%).
Under the line 36 times (47.4%).
Pushed the line 3 times (3.9%).

Worth noting as well for the Titans they are playing their fourth-straight road game. History has not been kind to teams playing four consecutive road games and there is a reason why the regular-season schedule does not create situations where teams are forced to play four road games in a row.

Quarterbacks Championship Sunday DFS

It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($7,700/$9,500), puts on an absolute clinic. Before the divisional playoff game (when he scored 40-plus), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best quarterback on the two-game slate, but that is why he is the most expensive. The Titans finished the regular season allowing the sixth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks to quarterbacks.

https://twitter.com/AlZeidenfeld/status/1214638346787377152

As for Ryan Tannehill ($5,500/$7,700), he has the tall task of going up versus the Chiefs defense that during the last four weeks of the season allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The best approach in deploying Tannehill on this slate would be to play him in lineups that do not feature the Titans being able to run the ball effectively and are forced to play catch-up versus the Chiefs offense. Tannehill back in Week 10 did score over 19 fantasy points when he completed just 13 passes. However, the home/road splits for Tannehill still are always concerning so on the road in an extremely tough environment I do not see myself rostering too much Tannehill considering Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,200/$7,600) is in a better spot and is cheaper on both sites.

The one thing to consider is Tannehill is he probably is the only quarterback that I would consider playing naked. Tannehill has averaged five rushing attempts per game over his last three starts. Also, the Chiefs will be without Juan Thornhill and likely pass-rusher Chris Jones which makes Tannehill much more appealing.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,100/$4,400) are the most expensive on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel. They are worth paying up for in GPPs and could see suppressed ownership with Mahomes being heavily owned. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill could get sacked a ton – 31% of pressures on Tannehill result in sacks. That the highest rate among the league’s starters.

The Titans are dirt-cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings and honestly, for that reason, they become a viable option. Also, it only takes one turnover for their DST to be a factor and over the past two weeks, they have had a DST score. Most people avoid stacking their quarterback versus the DST they are playing, but in this case, it could make sense; play Mahomes and the Tennesse DST on DraftKings to save the salary.

Running Backs

Damien Williams ($7,000/$7,600) is the second-most expensive running back on the slate on DraftKings but is cheaper than Aaron Jones on FanDuel. W do not get the price discount this week with Williams but of all the Chiefs skill players, he has the most projectable role. Not to mention during the regular season the Titans allowed the third-most receptions to backs. He probably will not score three touchdowns again, but the Titans did allow the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs over the regular season. We have seen the Chiefs rely on Williams in the postseason in the past, so I am confident going back to him as the lead running back on the team with the highest implied team total (30.25).

As for Derrick Henry ($8,700/$9,800), well we all know the story of his production by now. I have faded Henry over the last few weeks and that was against even better run defenses in the Patriots and Ravens. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the 2019 regular season. If the Titans are to win this game it will be on the shoulders or QUADs of Henry. You cannot full-on fade him in this spot, even at his price. Teams know they have to stop Henry and up to this point, nobody has been able to execute. In 2019 including the playoffs Henry vs stacked boxes ranks first in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.

https://twitter.com/nflnetwork/status/1217808777468092417

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

The Tennesse Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season versus 12 personnel, which according to SharpFootball Stats in that formation they are allowing 8.8 yards per attempt and a 57% success rate from passes in that formation. Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. This is consistent with the Titans’ defense being weak versus tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and third-most receiving touchdowns during the regular season. So yes wheels are indeed up for Travis Kelce ($7,100/$7,800).

Blake Bell ($2,800/$4,000) also becomes an interesting punt play if Kelce is limited at all by his injury. Bell ran 15 routes last week and had two targets. As for the Tennessee tight ends, it’s extremely tough to trust any of them in this spot this week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,400/$5,600) could end up being a not only a value but a great leverage play if the two elite tight ends on the slate do not fire. Smith leads the NFL in yards after the catch per target per @Rotounderworld. He also leads the Titans in targets over the past two weeks.

https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1218542993130639365

As for the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill ($7,200/$7,400) seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Hill sees time from the slot and Logan Ryan has been beaten badly by speed guys this season. Also, we saw the speedy Marquise Brown have a super productive day versus this secondary just one week ago. Last week I wanted to be overweight on Kelce, but I think this week is the week to be overweight on Hill. Hill is cheaper than Davante Adams ($7,900/$8,300) on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Via Arrowheadpride.com “The Titans have struggled to defend elite receiving weapons. The last time they saw one was in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Michael Thomas finished with 136 yards on 12 catches and a score. The week before, Tennessee allowed Texans’ Deandre Hopkins to rack up 119 yards on six receptions. The back half of their schedule did not feature many elite passing offenses — but they lost in the two matchups where they faced one after the Chiefs.”

As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($3,800/$4,900). Hardman does not see a ton of snaps, (just eight routes ran last week), but he had four targets. When he is on the field the Chiefs are looking for ways to get him the ball. The last time he played the Titans he scored a 63-yard touchdown. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He is the target in GPPs, while in cash formats, I am fine going with Sammy Watkins ($4,600/$5,200).

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($5,200)/($6,800) will probably be a pretty popular option in GPPs, but the matchup is extremely tough. The Chiefs rank second-best versus the position during the regular season (only the Patriots were better). At his price, he is someone I am definitely looking to fade. I prefer both slot options for the Titans in receivers Tajae Sharpe ($3,100/$4,700) and Adam Humphries ($3,000/$5,000). If Humphries plays I favor him, and obviously if he misses I want to move to Sharpe. The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers.

Championship Sunday DFS – Packers @ 49ers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -7 | Over/Under 45

Quarterbacks, Defenses Championship Sunday DFS

In this game, the total has moved up from 45 to 46.5. The spread has bounced around anywhere between 6.5-7.5. Historically, since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 220 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6.5 to 8.5 points. In these games:

San Francisco won the game 165 times (75.0%).
Green Bay won the game 54 times (24.5%).
Green Bay did better against the spread, going 106-104-10 (50.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.3 points.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,100/$8,000) has been one of the most matchup dependent quarterbacks this season. Against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him. I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo. He is the cheapest QB on both sites and showed back in Week 12 versus the Packers he can be extremely efficient. He only completed 14 passes in that game, but still threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 30 passing attempts per game at home this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last three contests.

I do also think that the Packers DST ($2,400/$4,000) is the safest pay-down option on both sites. They are a ton of playmakers across the Green Bay defense that include Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. They all can cause stress to offenses. I am not trying to play the 49ers DST ($2,900/$4,600) especially on FanDuel where they are the most expensive. Green Bay was second in fewest giveaways per game in 2019.

Running Backs

After his big game last week the price on Tevin Coleman ($5,700/$6,500) has gone way back up. But keep in mind that his 22 carries were the highest of his career. The matchup is extremely juicy versus a terrible Packers’ run defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA during the regular season with the second-worst defensive line in the league, yielding 4.96 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, it is important to note that it was the touchdowns that elevated Coleman, while Raheem Mostert ($4,300/$5,800) still saw 12 carries.

Mostert’s price on DraftKings is very low making him a considerable cash game option. I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,400/$5,000) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his touches hr could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Coleman’s performance.

There is not a lot of injury news when it comes to this slate specifically, but one thing to note is the Packers are coming in extremely healthy. The only players coming in questionable are fullback Danny Vitale and cornerback Tramon Williams. The return of Vitale could potentially be huge for running back Aaron Jones ($6,700/$7,800). The Packers this season have a 51% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. I think if Vitale plays that could be a significant boost to the Packers rushing attack.

Also, it needs to be said that in the previous matchup where Jones was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries, that was when DJ Jones was still playing for SF. He went on IR after Week 14. Weeks 15-17 the 49ers allowed a 58% success rate and 4.8 yards per carry from 12 personnel. With more tight ends and the potential for a fullback look for the Packers to go big to run the football to limit the 49ers’ pass rush.

Additionally, I think that leveraging the late-game swap with a guy like Jamaal Williams ($3,800/$4,800) will be extremely important. Williams scored 15 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced and he had a season-high eight targets and seven receptions in the passing game. Rodgers has made a note of how important chemistry is entering this playoff game and he does have a solid rapport with Williams. When targeting Williams Rodgers has a 129.4 passer rating with a 90% completion percentage. If the Packers are trailing in this game, as the spread would project we could see more Williams assist with pass protection and play more third-downs.

Tyler Ervin ($3,100/$4,700) is mostly a punt play but is returning kicks and punts for Green Bay so I like the GPP stack with the Packers DST. Ervin has 4.41 speed and it’s a college homecoming from the former San Jose State Spartan. The pre-snap motion could be integral to Matt LaFleur’s gameplan, and Ervin has become LaFleur’s go-to motion man over the past several weeks.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

One of the biggest weaknesses of the Green Bay defense is defending against passes in-between the numbers. According to Sharp Football Stats over the second half of the season, passes in-between the numbers had a 56% success rate. Outside the numbers drop down to 41%. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from George Kittle ($5,800)/($7,000). The last time played Green Bay he went for over 125 yards and a score. His price is way too low. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900)/($5,500) is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Deebo Samuel ($5,500)/$6,300) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)/($5,400) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past two weeks.

There are definitely trust issues between the lower-end wide receivers for the Packers and the coaching staff. After Allen Lazard ($4,400/$5,100) left last week’s game you would have expected another receiver to take his place right? Nope, the Packers instead opted to use more 13 personnel with no wide receiver outside of Adams seeing more than one target. With Lazard off the injury report, all of these fringy sub-4k Green Bay receivers should be faded for the most part. Jake Kumerow ($3,200/$4,700) is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and ran the second-most routes of any receiver on the Packers.

Adams is not an absolute lock to smash coming off his best game of the season. The last time he came off a 30-point game he finished with just 11.1 fantasy points the next week. Adams had just 43 receiving yards the last time he played SF but salvaged the day with a touchdown. As I mentioned the Packers used more three-tight end sets so Jace Sternberger ($2,500)/($4,000) (season-high 36 snaps last week) possesses explosiveness and his 44% snap share was higher than Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan. Sternberger wears 87 so perhaps Rodgers thinks he is throwing to Jordy Nelson.

https://twitter.com/SeedsofJake/status/1216747273079656450

Image via Mike Morbeck

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 17 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kelce and Company

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

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Week 17 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAC

FD($7,500) DK ($7,000)

With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYG

FD($6,400) DK ($4,900)

While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.

Week 17 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Austin Hooper, ATL at TB

FD($6,000) DK ($5,800)

The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.

Darren Waller, OAK at DEN

FD($6,200) DK ($5,400)

Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.

Hunter Henry, LAC at KC

FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)

Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.

Week 17 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

O.J.Howard, TB vs. ATL

FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)

Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.

KadenSmith, NYG vs. PHI

FD($5,300) DK ($3,700)

The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.

Additional Week 17 DFS GPP andpunt options:

TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP

JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only

JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt

NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt

Week 17 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. PIT)

FD($4,900) DK ($3,100)

The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.

Indianapolis Colts (IND at JAC)

FD ($4,800) DK ($3,200)

I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.

Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills

Week 17 DFS DST GPP Plays

New England Patriots (NE vs.MIA)

FD($4,700) DK ($4,300)

The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.

New Orleans Saints (NO at CAR)

FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.

Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

Week 17 DFS DST PuntPlays

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. NYG)

FD($4,800) DK ($3,000)

They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.

Denver Broncos (DEN vs. OAK)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,300)

Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 15 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: More Than a Little Kittle

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 15 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

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Week 15 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

George Kittle, SF vs. ATL

FD($7,200) DK ($6,200)

Kittle is the number one fantasy TE this week in cash games, and he’s viable in GPPs too, given his upside. With 60-754-4 on the season and averaging six receptions and 90.3 yards per game over his last four games, it’s obvious that Jimmy G loves him — and he’s what you’re looking for as your top TE in cash games.

Darren Waller, OAK vs. JAC

FD($6,200) DK ($5,500)

Waller had 6-72-0 and a fumble last week but remains DerekCarr’s top target. He’s a cash game staple every week but hasn’t broken out fora monster game in a while. The price is still very affordable.

Week 15 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. DEN

FD($7,300) DK ($6,500)

Kelce isn’t cheap, but he brings massive upsideto the table and is essentially matchup-proof because of the many ways Patrick Mahomescan get him the ball. He’s a consensus Top 3 fantasy TE every week, and becausehe’s expensive he usually doesn’t draw too much ownership in GPPs.

Zach Ertz, PHI at WAS

FD($6,700) DK ($6,000)

The price has jumped up on both sites, mainly because ofhis big game in Week 14 and the injury to Alshon Jeffery, but we still mustconsider Ertz as a GPP play, especially facing the Redskins. He had 5-54-0 inWeek 1 against them, but I think he’ll find the end zone this time around.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CAR

FD($6,200) DK ($5,000)

We saw Jared Cook score two big TDs early last week againstthe 49ers, so I’m not counting out Hooper despite the difficult matchup on paper.With Calvin Ridley out of commission and this likely to be a negative game scriptfor the Falcons, I can see Hooper drawing 8-10 targets or more. The price hasdropped too.

Week 15 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

TylerHigbee, LAR at DAL

FD ($5,700) DK ($3,900)

Higbeeshould be a popular target for Jared Goff this week facing the Cowboys, whohave a banged up linebacking corps and will struggle in covering the middle of thefield. We’ve seen two huge games in a row (7-107-1 and 7-116-0) and Higbee isstill a great bargain at just $3,900 on DK.

O.J.Howard, TB at DET

FD($5,700) DK ($3,500)

Howard gets a decent matchup against the Lions and could seeextra volume with Mike Evans (hamstring) done for the rest of the season. He doesn’thave the upside of the top TEs, but 10-15 DK points for $3,500 could work – andthe chances of him catching a TD really go up without Evans on the field.

IanThomas, CAR vs. SEA

FD ($5,300) DK ($3,100)

The pricing on FD is fair, but Thomas is still a massivebargain on DK, where he’s just $3,100.The matchup is a good one, as the Seahawkshave struggled to contain TEs this season, and we saw last week how much KyleAllen relies on Thomas without Greg Olsen.

Additional Week 15 DFS GPP andpunt options:

HunterHenry, LAC vs. MIN (FD $6,400, DK $5,200) – Risky and expensive GPP play

NoahFant, DEN at KC (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) – GPP only (He’s playing)

DallasGoedert, PHI at WAS (FD $5,700, DK $4,300) – GPP only

Week 15 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

New England Patriots (NE atCIN)

FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Patriots might havea little extra steam in their engines this week after the scandalous film crewinvestigation, and there’s no arguing this is a talented unit who can dominateagainst bad teams – the Bengals included.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI at WAS)

FD($4,900) DK ($3,400)

The Eagles defenseshould be up to the task against a Redskins team just scraping through the lastfew games of 2019. This one could get ugly, even if the Eagles offense doesn’t clicklike it should.

Week 15 DFS DST GPP Plays

San Francisco 49ers (SF vs.ATL)

FD($4,500) DK ($3,800)

You’re getting a discount on FD and the Falcons are not the offensivejuggernaut that the Saints are. I’m not worried about a repeat of last week,and I’ll be locking the 49ers into a lot of my GPP entries.

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. CHI)

FD($4,200) DK ($3,000)

We saw what they did against the Bears in Week1, and I’m not convinced Mitch

Trubisky isn’t dreading the kind of pressure thePackers DST can bring. The price is more than fair on both sites for the upsidethis team brings.

Week 15 DFS DST PuntPlays

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at DAL)

FD($3,600) DK ($2,900)

The Rams are a huge bargain this week against aDallas Cowboys team that seems to have given up. I wouldn’t be playing them in cashgams, but I’m fine with shares in GPPs because the Cowboys may not have a planfor Aaron Donald and these greedy, aggressive corners.

Miami Dolphins (MIA at NYG)

FD($3,700) DK ($2,600)

This is about as low as I’d like to go in GPPs, but the reality ofthe Giants woes makes the Dolphins a unit we have to consider. It’s a team thatcontinues to get better and Eli Manning and the Giants aren’t really playingfor anything but their pride.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 14 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kittle and Crew

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

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Week 14 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

George Kittle, SF at NO

FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)

The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.

Darren Waller, OAK vs. TE

FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)

With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.

Jack Doyle, IND at TB

FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)

Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.

Week 14 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC at NE

FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)

We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.

Hunter Henry, LAC at JAC

FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)

Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. BUF

FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)

Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CAR

FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)

Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ vs. MIA

FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)

We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.

Week 14 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

VanceMcDonald, PIT at ARI

FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)

McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)

Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DET

FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)

Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.

Additional Week 14 DFS GPP andpunt options:

IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)

JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup

DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside

Week 14 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. WAS

FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT at ARI)

FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)

The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.

Week 14 DFS DST GPP Plays

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. DET)

FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)

This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.

Cleveland Browns (CLE vs. CIN)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)

Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.

Week 14 DFS DST PuntPlays

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC atJAC)

FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)

Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. TB)

FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 13 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: A Kelce Dose

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

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Week 13 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. OAK

FD($7,100) DK ($7,200)

Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.

Darren Waller, OAK at KC

FD($6,100) DK ($5,500)

Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.

Week 13 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

George Kittle, SF at BAL

FD($7,000) DK ($6,100)

Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.

Hunter Henry, LAC at DEN

FD($6,600) DK ($5,800)

Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. SF

FD($6,500) DK ($5,700)

Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.

Zach Ertz, PHI at MIA

FD($6,900) DK ($6,700)

Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at MIA

FD($5,200) DK ($4,100)

Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at CIN

FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)

Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. WAS

FD($5,100) DK ($4,400)

Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.

Week 13 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)

Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.

TylerHigbee, LAR at ARI

FD($5,500) DK ($2,500)

Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona.

Additional Week 13 DFS GPP andpunt options:

JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP

JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)

NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP

TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP

Week 13 DFS DST Cash Game Plays

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT vs.CLE)

FD($3,700) DK ($3,500)

The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI at MIA)

FD($5,000) DK ($3,600)

The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.

Week 13 DFS DST GPP Plays

New York Jets (NYJ at CIN)

FD($4,900) DK ($3,700)

Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.

Carolina Panthers (CAR vs. WAS)

FD($4,700) DK ($3,800)

The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.

Green Bay Packers (GB at NYG)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)

This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.

Week 13 DFS DST PuntPlays

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC vs.TB)

FD($4,400) DK ($3,300)

The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at ARI)

FD($4,100) DK ($3,200)

The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.

Also consider: Colts,Browns

Photo of Kelce by Master Sgt. April Wickes, U.S. Air Force

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Week 13 Fades/Plays- Thielen/Ertz and More

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

As we approach the second half of Week 13, keep in mind that although there are many injuries across the league, there is only a handful that impacts DFS significantly (i.e. Adam Thielen, Zach Ertz). It will be critical to staying up to date on these injuries to help make fade/play decisions so check back with me for more information as the weekend unfolds. With that said I’ll get into the Week 13 Injury Fades/Plays. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.

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Zach Ertz ($6,700)

Ertz did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday before getting in a limited practice on Friday due to a hamstring injury from last week. Despite the fact that Dallas Goedert ($4,100) was optimistic Ertz would play, the general feel from the collection of reports is less rosy. This will be a true game-time decision this week making him a fade in cash for me on Sunday despite a smash spot against Miami. Ertz is at risk for missing time or if he plays, re-aggravating the injury. Pivoting to Goedert is the obvious over-owned play here, so instead look to teammate Miles Sanders ($5,400) in the showdown slates. Sanders will likely pick up the leftover volume in Ertz’s absence. If you’re playing the Thursday to Sunday slate and were going to pay up for tight end anyway, look at Travis Kelce ($7,200) who over the last three games against the Raiders has three touchdowns, over 20 receptions, and more than 300 receiving yards.

Update: The reports are that Ertz is “pushing to play” which does not give us any more comfort in his utilization or effectiveness. It also does not detract from his risk of re-aggravation. He’s still a fade in cash games. Goedert and the tight ends I mention above are cash plays in Ertz’ absence

Gerald Everett ($4,600)

Everett has been dealing with wrist and knee injuries for a couple of weeks now and will not play on Sunday. This coincides perfectly with a matchup against the Cardinals who are bad at defending the pass and especially bad at defending the tight end.

*Enter Tyler Higbee*

Higbee is nothing special from a talent perspective, but he soaks up enough targets even with Everett active to warrant cash game consideration this week. At $2,500 he could run an incorrect route and return value on accident. Higbee also gives you massive savings to jam in players you want this week.

Damien Williams ($4,800)

Williams has an injury to his ribs which can be extremely painful, so he’s going to sit this one out. Teammates LeSean McCoy ($4,800) and Darrel Williams ($4,400) will look to hold down the backfield in his absence, but I’m not particularly interested in either as Andy Reid has made this backfield a nightmare for DFS players. Instead, I’m pivoting away from this game and looking at Miles Sanders again who is likely to be very involved as the 1. A. running back in a matchup where the Eagles should be in control.

Adam Thielen ($7,000)

It’s not often that players are hesitant to discuss their game status, but that’s exactly what we got from Thielen on Friday. His interview with reporters essentially amounted to Thielen saying “we’ll see” in response to the question of whether he would play or not on Sunday. This is an injury red flag if I’ve ever seen one. DFS players should make lineups without Thielen in it. Even if he’s active, he’s a serious risk for re-injury as we saw happen a few weeks ago. This means you can continue to roll with Stefon Diggs ($7,400) against this uninspiring Seattle secondary that will also now be without pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney.

Tyler Lockett ($7,200)

My favorite receiver can’t catch a break. Following the scary injury to his shin, Lockett was downgraded to “did not practice” on Friday due to an illness. This isn’t great as a stomach bug can cause fatigue and dehydration for a few days after the worst of it subsides. If it’s the flu virus, Lockett could be dealing with those same symptoms but at an amplified level. Lockett is a fade for me in cash and I’m watching his status for Monday night closely. Look at D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) in tournaments to once again fill the void, but this Minnesota defense is nothing to mess with.

Update: Pete Carroll said that all players listed with an illness, including Lockett, will play on Monday. Jadeveon Clowney says he will try to play.

Additions and Updates:

Matt Breida ($4,900)

Breida will be out again which is not surprising considering the ankle issue he’s dealing with is of the high variety. Mostert ($3,800) is a cheap option but I’m fading him in cash and tournaments as his volume is simply too low.

Thank you for reading the DFS Week 13 Fades/Plays. Be sure to bookmark this page or follow me on Twitter for more updates or changes. Good luck this week.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Jason Peters.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 10 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Hooper is My Homeboy

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 10 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 10 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

Austin Hooper, ATL at NO

FD ($6,800) DK ($6,300)

No tight end in the NFL has more double-digit fantasy performancesthis season, as Hooper has averaged 18.6 FPPG on DK and 14.63 on FD. Thematchup may be tough on paper, but the Falcons will be throwing the ball inthis one and Hooper is a lock for 7-10 targets each week. He’s got the highestfloor and a Top 3 ceiling.

Travis Kelce, KC at TEN

FD ($6,700) DK ($6,900)

Kelce caught 7-62-0 on nine targets last week, but with Patrick Mahomeslooking ready to suit up for Week 10, we might see the big TE finally reachpaydirt for only the second time since mid-September, when he dropped 7-107-1on the Raiders. I’m expecting a stat line closer to that than the morepedestrian totals we’ve been seeing.

Week 10 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Mark Andrews, BAL at CIN

FD ($6,800) DK ($5,200)

The exciting young TE isfar from a cash game lock against a Bengals defense that may struggle tocontain Baltimore’s running game. Game script may dictate a conservativeapproach from the Ravens and they might just not need much from Andrews. But ifCincy can somehow keep this thing close, we could see monster day from him.

GeraldEverett, LAR at PIT

FD ($5,700) DK ($4,500)

The Rams are without Brandin Cooks, and both WR JoshReynolds and Everett get a big bump this week against the Steelers. Everett hassome of the biggest GPP upside on this slate, and his price isn’t oppressiveenough that we are forced to compromise at other positions. He has three gamesof 15+ DK points so far, including a 23.6-point effort against Seattle in Week5 – so get him in some of your Sunday builds.

Eric Ebron, IND vs. MIA

FD ($4,900) DK ($3,900)

I’m notgoing to begin to parse how the pricing algorithms on FD and DK are this wonkywhen it comes to Ebron and his teammate (discussed below), but there’s merit toplaying both of these guys in GPPs against the Dolphins, who have done a betterjob keeping games close the past few weeks. Ebron is a boom-or-bust GPP optionjust about every week, and we need to consider him, even if we don’t load up.

Jack Doyle, IND vs. MIA

FD ($5,200) DK ($3,600)

Doyle is a huge bargain on DK and relatively expensive onFD, but he’s an excellent GPP option on both and could have a higher floor thanthe aforementioned Ebron. It would take some enormous hutzpah to play both in aGPP, and I’m not necessarily recommending it, but if there was a week to do it,it would be one like this.

T.J. Hockenson, DET at CHI

FD ($5,300) DK ($3,900)

Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against the Bears, who are 30thin the NFL vs. TEs. No major worries the concussion front, either, as he wasevaluated during Week 9 but just had the wind knocked out of him on a big hit.He’s an excellent GPP value play with upside.

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs.KC

FD ($5,100) DK ($3,500)

Delanie Walker (ankle) has been ruled out again, and it’s asituation Smith is familiar with. He’s had a couple different results – with a6-78-1 receiving line in a Week 8 win over Tampa Bay and a not-so-great 3-18-0in last week’s loss to the Panthers. The matchup with the Chiefs is on the favorableside, as they are 22nd in the NFL vs. TEs.

Week 10 DFS Tight End Punt Plays

CameronBrate, TB vs. ARI

FD ($5,100) DK ($3,700)

Brate gets to face theworst team in the league at defending TEs and he’s the best option at theposition for the Bucs. TheKing is with me on this, so feel free to roll Brate out in GPPs and evensome cash games if you don’t want to spend up.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at MIA

FD ($5,100) DK ($3,100)

Griffin has double-digit fantasy points on DK in three of his last four and caught six of eight targets for 50 yards in Sunday’s 26-18 loss to the Dolphins. His Week 10 matchup is against the Giants, who are 28th in the league vs. his. With Chris Herndon questionable again, Griffin is a staple of my GPP builds.

Greg Olsen, CAR at GB

FD ($5,100) DK ($3,600)

Olsen hasn’t shown much upside in the past several weeks, as the Panthers offense has involved the WRs more and focused on being the Christian McCaffrey show. We’ll see another big workload from CMC, but the Packers secondary is more likely to yield completions underneath to Olsen than the big play. If this thing turns into an offensive explosion, Olsen could get more red-zone looks and make for a cheap, TD-dependent GPP play.

Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. IND

FD ($5,300) DK ($3,100)

The suddenly relevant Gesicki matches up against the AFC’s second-worst team vs. TEs, and he’s been relatively efficient the past three weeks. Absent Preston Williams, the Miami offense could work him into more routes and targets for Week 10.

Additional Week 10 DFS GPP and punt options:

JimmyGraham, GB vs. CAR (FD $5,800, DK $4,000) – GPP

VanceMcDonald, PIT vs. LAR (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) – GPP

JaredCook, NO vs. ATL (FD $5,800, DK $4,100) – GPP

O.J.Howard, TB vs. ARI (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) – Punt

RhettEllison, NYG at NYJ (FD $5,000, DK $2,500) – Punt

Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. BAL(FD $5,000, DK $3,000) – Punt

Week 10 DFS DST Cash Game Plays

Baltimore Ravens (BAL at CIN)

FD ($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Ravens DST has a great matchup this week and has proven themselves worthy even against the toughest of opponents, with 31 combined DK points over the past two weeks against the Seahawks and Patriots. They’re easy to lock into cash games.

New Orleans Saints (NO vs. ATL)

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,700)

With 14 sacks over their past four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against a banged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with a 20-point upside in GPPs.

Week 10 DFS DST GPP Plays

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs.MIA)

FD ($4,900) DK ($3,500)

The Colts draw the best matchup of Week 10 and should be a chalky GPP option facing Miami. They’ve averaged 8.5 DK points over their last three and have a 15-point upside on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at PIT)

FD ($4,600) DK ($3,000)

The Rams are a sneaky play this week facing the Steelers, who seem to limit mistakes and play a conservative style that doesn’t yie4ld a lot of turnovers. Still, the Rams have a slew of impact defensive players who give them an enormous upside in GPPs.

Buffalo Bills (BUF at CLE)

FD ($4,500) DK ($2,900)

In Week 10, the Bills facethe Browns, who make a lot of mistakes. The road matchup and two recent weak effortsare the only things that will keep me from using them more.

New York Giants (NYG at NYJ)

FD ($4,600) DK ($3,500)

The Giants just acquired Leonard Williams from the Jets not toolong ago, and we’ve seen the Jets struggle to score the football in the redzone. They make for a boom-or-bust GPP play in a game that could end up being adefenseless shootout.

Chicago Bears (CHI at PHI)

FD ($4,200) DK ($3,100)

The Bears DST has been remarkably quiet lately, but Matthew Stafford and the Lions tend to push the ball up the field and throw over the top of the defense, which can lead to multiple turnovers. They’re far from safe, but they have an upside.

Week 10 DFS DST Punt Plays

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT vs. LAR)

FD ($4,100) DK ($2,600)

Scott Engel mentioned these guys, along with the Chiefs in hispunts column this week, and I’m right there with him. The Steelers defensehas been maddeningly consistent with its DK scoring, averaging 11.8 on the seasonand posting 19, 11, 14, 13, and 19 points in succession since Week 4.

Kansas City Chiefs (KC vs. TEN)

FD ($3,700) DK ($2,700)

The Chiefs defense – especially the pass rush – is underrated, andthey should have DL Chris Jones back for a second consecutive week, which meansRyan Tannehill could be in trouble. I’m on board as a GPP punt in large-field,low-stakes tourneys.

Cleveland Browns (CLE vs. BUF)

FD ($3,500) DK ($2,500)

The Browns’ defensive line is loaded with talent and the defensive backs seem sot be getting healthy. They could give the Bills some problems, but they remain a longshot for viable production. I’d avoid them in lineups using Devin Singletary and/or the Bills passing game, obviously.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week – Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions

Goal: 23.5, Prize: 3x

I am including TE Austin Hooper with WRs Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in this MKF bet, going for broke on the 3x, because these three guys can easily average 8 receptions each this week. Thomas might be good for 12 on his own, and Jones and Hooper each have about 7-8 in them too.

Photo of Austin Hooper via Thomson200 at Wikimedia Commons.

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