The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 3M Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
*This is a terrible field OVERALL and I would highly recommend playing lite. There is a legit chance that one of 15 – 20 golfers win this week and I wouldn’t be surprised. With that said, my player pool will generally be heavy chalk or punts. I’ll have my cash section still but this week feels like you need to really nail the low end guys and miss the landmines up top. Yes, this is a general rule but I feel with the ease of the course and the field, chalk will make it through the cut line. There will always be one surprise or so but for now I want the chalk.*
**These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.**
Paul Casey $10,100 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 23%)
Brooks Koepka $11,200 (M2, 9%) – Ownership alone makes him a GPP ONLY play for me
Tony Finau $10,900 (M5, 19%)
Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 (M7, 18%)
Bubba Watson $9,900 (M17, 12%) – Coming off a T32 at The Memorial, Watson is sandwiched between chalk three deep on both sides of him on DraftKings. He’s 16th in Tee to Green on comparable courses and and plays really well on the longer par 4s.
Matthew Wolff $9,700 (M19, 17%) – Last years inaugural winner, he placed 22nd last week. The Rocket Mortgage course has been said to comparable to the 2020 3M Open course and he finished 2nd a few weeks back. Does all of his damage right where you need it (OTT & APP)at TPC Twin Cities. He doesn’t make the cash team though because he is a bit inconstant.
Russell Henley $9,200 (M13, 17%) – Back to back made cuts with a T7 at the Workday Charity Open. He did miss the cut here last year but does show well in the comp course model ranking eighth in T2G. Henley checks a lot of boxes and would rank higher if he was a better putter. Luckily putting isn’t the biggest difference maker here.
Erik Van Rooyen $8,800 (M18, 24%) – If you want to make a stand, here is your guy but be careful. Rooyen is elite in terms of off the tee and in his approach. He really struggles in the short game. Like Henley though, that’s not necessarily important. What makes him a good player to move off of if you wish is his inconsistency. On courses that he should dominate, he doesn’t. Im playing him at the moment because, again, he could easily win this week, but he could also miss the cut. Choose your poison.
Luke List $8,400 (M43, 13%) – GPP ONLY play for me, List has everything you want at the 2020 3M Open. A good ball striker that can score points with solid odds. He’s not great with the putter and he can get wild with his swing at times (plenty of hazards). I know thats kind of contradicting the ball striking remark but it’s true. Seems to go on and off at times from one hole to another or one round to another.
Max Homa $8,000 (M10, 11%) – Despite missing three cuts in a row (all on the number I believe) and four out of the last five, Homa is still 45th ranked in the field in strokes gained. That’s a crazy stat and truly shows how weak this field is. Top 25 rank in all the important metrics, this is the week Homa breaks through.
Brain Harman $8,000 (M22, 6%) – I’ve wrote him so many times, these last few tournament with nothing but disappointment in the end. Process over results though, right? His putter is the main culprit to his demise but as a whole its the most varied part of a golfers game. If he can get the ball rolling better on the greens, Harman could not only make the cut but perhaps land in the top 15.
Jhonattan Vegas $7,900 (M9, 12%) – Vegas’ game sets up perfectly for here, which is making higher owned for being a lower priced player. Perhaps better suited as a FRL bet, Vegas does tend to fall off on the weekend. He missed the cut at the Workday but made two top 25 prior.
Sepp Straka $7,900 (M25, 11%) – Since the restart, Straka has made the cut four out of five times. This includes two top 15 finishes including a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which again is comparable to the 2020 3M open.
Charley Hoffman $7,400 (M34, 10%) – Hoffman is one of the better scorers in the field, which will be needed. Shows up well on comp course model though he did miss the cut last year. Two out of three made cuts since the break, Hoffman feels solid to make the cut and post a possible top 20.
Pat Perez $7,200 (M26, 3%) – Perez is a grinder and can show up from time to time in the top 20. He made the cut at the 3M Open last year (53rd) and made the last two cuts after the restart (T39 & T45). If youre looking for a cheap option without dipping into the 6K, Perez is your man.
Cameron Tringale $7,200 (M50, 5%) – Tringale is another RMC play as he finished T30 a few weeks back. He also made the cut in 2019 finishing 42. A solid ball striker who’s cheap.
Aaron Wise $7,100 (M55, 4%) – A man that can drive the ball with a solid vegas odds. A man that wins off the tee and approach generally, his recent play leaves something to be desired.
Matthias Schwab $7,000 (M45, 4%) – After touting him last week with a perfect 6/6 cut mark, he of course missed. The Memorial was a hard course and more seasoned players with bigger names also were no match. A top 100 OWGR player, he’s mostly seen on the Euro Tour. I think he bounces back with an easier course and weaker field.
Adam Long $7,000 (M32, 1%) – A man with solid stats across the board who is at his best with his irons and putter. 76th ranked in the worlkd according to DataGolf.com he’s one of the highest ranked in the price range.
Chase Seiffert $7,000 (M11, 10%) – Seiffert might get axed by the end if I think his ownership doesn’t drop. The model has him ranked rather high but it might be a lack of rounds to truly justify his ranking. I’ll have him as I don’t argue with the model I don’t know how much. Proceed with caution at the 2020 3M Open.
Matthew NeSmith $6,900 (M16, 2%)
Brice Garnett $6,900 (M36, 2%)
Adam Schenk $6,900 (M33, 4%)
Chesson Hadley $6,900 (M27, 7%)
Hudson Swafford $6,700 (M23, 5%)
Cameron Davis $6,500 (M61, 4%)
Derek Ernst $6,300 (M132, 1%)
Angus Flanagan $6,000 (M91, 1%)
Lucas Gloover $9,400 (M2, 23%)
Harris English $9,000 (M12, 22%)
Doc Redman $8,700 (M8, 23%)
Henrik Norlander $8,600 (M21, 14%)
Ryan Moore $8,100 (M14, 11%)
Troy Merritt $7,500 (M35, 6%)
Richy Werenski $7,400 (M20, 11%)
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 (M4, 3%)
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!
PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.
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Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.
Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.
Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)
Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.
Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.
Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.
Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.
Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.
Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.
Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan Frittelli
Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.
Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.
Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.
Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.
More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry Higgs
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.
J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.
Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.
Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Players Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD $12,200) – I picked Rory to win last week and he’s the betting favorite again (+650) despite his difficulties on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer invitational. He’s the defending champ here, and while there’s never been a golfer to win this event back-to-back, he’s in a class by himself. We can’t do a full fade but his putting issues (outside 10 feet) make me feel comfortable aligning with the field’s overall ownership levels in GPPs or coming slightly under that percentage.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – I will try to be overweight on Rahm this week because his form has been almost as impressive as McIlroy’s and he’s coming in fresh after a two-week layoff that kept him out of the carnage that has been the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Rahm checks all the boxes and trails only Rory and JT in my mixed model this week, so he’ll make over half of my GPP builds.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800, FD $11,900) – Like Rahm, JT hasn’t played since the WGC-Mexico, and that might not be a bad thing. He’s likely been working on his game, which suits this course well because of his great SG: Approach numbers, short game, and penchant for making birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks second on my mixed model, should see lower ownership than Rory, and has solid course history at the Players (5-for-5, two Top 15s).
Adam Scott (DK $9,600, FD $11,500) – Scott’s price is somewhat elevated on FanDuel, but it makes sense given his history at Sawgrass, which includes a Top 12 or better in each of his last four starts. A course horse if there ever was one, Scott manages his way around this course and should be in contention this weekend. It’ll be tough for him to close against such a stacked field, but he’s in my mix for GPPs.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,100, FD $11,300) – Bryson seemed more at ease on Sunday down the stretch at the API and should build on his strong finish with confidence at a course that he’s played better each of the two seasons he’s participated (T37 in his 2018 debut and T20 last year). I think he’s a great bet in all formats for his price and consistency and has a shot at winning the whole thing despite odds (+2700) that come in longer than Scott, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) – The Englishman plays well at Sawgrass and will avoid high ownership because of his MC at the API (and we can throw out a lot of the elite golfers’ finishes because of how brutal conditions were last week). He should be rested and ready to play well and string together a slew of birdies, capitalizing on solid all-around numbers.
Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,900, FD $10,800) – This could be the week that Rickie avoids the big number and finds his way into the Top 5 again. He won here in 2015 and has a spotty course history since, but I like him in GPPs. A risky play at $8,900, he does have winning upside if his putter continues to shine, and his ownership should land way under 10 percent in GPPs.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800, FD $10,900) – Nobody really dominates at the Players, but Matsuyama is 4-for-5 with all four of those made cuts landing him among the Top 25. He’s top five in several of our SG focus stats and makes for a fine under-the-radar play at an insanely affordable cost this week. I’ll try to double the field ownership on this ball-striker extraordinaire.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) – Some of the DK pricing this week is quite peculiar, and Reed at just $8,500 is an anomaly I’ll be taking advantage of regardless of field ownership (which isn’t currently projected to crack 15 percent). His status as a tour villain makes him a great candidate in GPPs, and his poor history here doesn’t discourage me as much as it would if he was priced way above $9K.
Tony Finau (DK $8,100, FD $10,200) – Finau sports solid SG: APP and general ball-striking numbers, and he’s improved each year he’s played TPC Sawgrass. He’s a sneaky off-the-radar GPP play who ranks sixth (right after an uber-popular Cantlay) in my mixed model. Finau makes a great wild-card component on GPP builds with a couple of studs and two other mid-tier cut-maker bargains.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) – I wish I could say that Kuchar fares well in my models, but he’s actually in the middle of the pack around the “cutline” at 64th (sandwiched between Russell Knox and Talor Gooch). Still, he’s a veteran golfer who’s more than the sum of his parts and there’s some decent course history here including a third-place finish in 2016 and a win back in 2012. The price is affordable and I think he’s a fine risk-reward GPP play based on his form (six Top 15s in his last nine tournaments).
Marc Leishman (DK $7,600, FD $9,700) – Leishman has historically struggled at the Players (two MC in his last three tries here and one Top 25 in the past five installments), hence his bargain price this week despite winning the Farmers in January and finishing second last week at the API to Tyrell Hatton. He falls just outside the Top 20 in my model and I’ll trust his ball-striking and SG: APP numbers to give him Top 15 upside come Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – Scheffler fared well in his debut at Bay Hill and will be making his first appearance at the Players this week. It’s not usually a course we like for virgin competitors, but Scheffler’s talent seems to keep him afloat and in contention, even in tougher fields. Don’t sleep on this young man and his ability to post low scores.
Also consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP only) Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,400 FD $9,000) – Hatton kept it together on Sunday and took home the red cardigan at the API — and the entire team at WinDaily Sports was high on him. As much as we’d like to cross him off our list given his poor history here and the traditional axiom of avoiding last week’s winner, he’s popping in my models as the No. 13 golfer this week. Last week must have been a confidence boost and I’ll be making room for him on GPPs lineups.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) – Fitzpatrick keeps getting closer and closer to breaking through with a win – he just needs to give himself more realistic chances at birdie. The short game is remarkably consistent and there’s plenty of things to like about his game tee-to-green and his last two finishes (T46, T41) here at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got Top 25 upside at an affordable price this week, so I can’t fade him.
Daniel Berger (DK $7,200, FD $9,400) – Berger has three straight disappointing finishes here (all made cuts, though) and a Top 10 in 2016. He’s among the Top 20 in my model this week and his form is excellent (T4, T5, T9 in his last three events with his last MC coming at the Houston Open in October). I love his upside and bargain price for all formats.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,300, FD $9,500) – Another veteran golfer who manages his way around this challenging TPC layout, Poulter takes advantage of scoring opportunities when he can. He’s ground his way to Top 40 finishes in difficult conditions the past two weeks, and he’s experienced enough here to avoid big numbers, make the cut (5-for-5 and finish on the leaderboard (T2 in 2017).
Abraham Ancer (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Ancer finished T12 here in his 2019 debut and is a fine all-around fit based on his strengths from tee to green. His worst numbers are around and on the green, so he’s a risky play best reserved for GPPs. I have a couple of better plays in mind, but I’ll have some shares.
Joel Dahmen (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – Speaking of GPP-only golfers whose short game is their main weakness, Dahmen is almost a direct analog for Ancer in his course history (also finished T12 in his debut last year) and focus stats (he’s 52nd in my model while Ancer is 53rd). He’s actually a safer play than Ancer based on his current form (T5, T5, and T14 in his last three starts) and a better bargain on both sites.
Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600, FD $7,300) – Tringale hasn’t played the Players since 2017, but he’s 3-for-3 here and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events. He fares incredibly well (no. 23) in my mixed model and is a solid value play to round out your builds in almost any format.
Brian Harman (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – There’s not a lot of overwhelming upside under $6,500 this week, but Harman is on my shortlist of punts for his course history (Top 10s in two of his last five at Sawgrass) and cut-making ability. He also ranks 27th in my model, so his all-around ball striking and short game abilities are well suited for this track.
Bud Cauley (DK $6,200, FD $7,600) – Cauley’s weaknesses lie in his poor SG: OTT numbers and his pedestrian BoB% numbers, but at these prices and considering his recent stretch of made cuts, I’ll hang on the positive numbers that stick out: He’s 34thin the field for SG: APP and 13th in SG: ARG.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,100, FD $7,500) – I’m taking a big risk with Munoz after his brutal MC last week (he made a 7 on the Par 5 6th hole, his 15th of the day, to put him at +5 – while the cut landed at +3). He’s also making his debut this week, but my models love him (18th overall in the field), so I’ll be using him in two or three out of 20 GPP entries.
More value golfers for GPPs: Matt Wallace, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas, Jim Furyk, Talor Gooch, Adam Long, Kevin Tway
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!
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Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.
Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.
Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.
Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler
Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.
Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.
Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.
Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.
Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.
Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter
Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.
Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.
Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.
Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.
Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.
Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.
More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman
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Rickie Fowler (DK $10,800, FD $11,700) – Rickie needs to avoid the big number this week, and that probably comes down to his ball-striking – a strength in the past that’s seen diminishing effectiveness thus far in 2020. He’s one of the world’s best putters and he’s a former winner here (2017) who seems to fare well on Florida tracks.
Gary Woodland (DK $10,300, FD$11,300) – Woodlandplayed well last week and now returns home to Florida and his favorite surface –Bermuda. He’s a solid bet to win at 20-1 odds and makes lots of sense for GPPssince he’s only had one Top 5 finish here in four tries. I’ll be starting a fewstars/scrubs teams with Fowler and Woodland.
Justin Rose (DK $9,900, FD $11,400) – The Englishman plays well in wind but has limited experience here. I’m not expecting much ownership but digging deeper shows that he checks the boxes here with his Strokes Gained stats and has had a week to clear his head after a woeful T56 at the Genesis.
Billy Horschel (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Horschel has two MCs here in his last five appearances, which could help keep his ownership down. He’s a grinder who loves Bermuda and the data shows favorable results in his SG categories – which are a huge part of contending here. Like Fowler, he needs to avoid the big number and navigate the Bear Trap without making an “other.”
Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood,Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry
Byeong Hun An (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – An’s ball-striking is his biggest strength, and the Bermuda surfaces are a much better fit for him than poa annua. His fate resides in how he performs with the flat stick – which has dictated his previous finishes (fifth in 2018, T36 in 2019). My ownership will be way ahead of the field, even if he gets chalky.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Niemann doesn’t have much course history aside from a tepid T59 finish here last season, but he’s a talented ball-striker who could be this week’s Erik Van Rooyen.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Schwartzel loves to play tough golf courses, and he’s got a Green Jacket to show for it. He’s got a solid track record at PGA National and his overall game has been rounding into form.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) – He’s coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and conditions there last week should resemble what the golfers are dealing with in Florida a lot more than the West Coast Swing.
Luke List (DK $8,000, FD $9,600) – We’ve talked about some of the ups and downs to List’s career before, and while he’s not cheap this week, price is just one of the factors that could keep his GPP ownership low – the other being an MC here in 2019 after (T10-T52-2 in 2016-2018).
Wyndham Clark (DK $7,600, FD $9,600) – Clark ranks well in Bogey Avoidance and checks most of the boxes this week coming off three straight made cuts. He’s one of my favorite plays under $8K and I’ll be flirting with 50% ownership in GPPs.
Also consider: Daniel Berger, J.T.Poston, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Harris English, Russell Knox, Jhonattan Vegas
Russell Henley (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – Henley’s played better here every year following his MC in 2016 (he won here in 2014) and is coming off a T17 at the Genesis. He’s a decent wind player and has also won at the Sony Open, which is another shorter track that sees its share of wind. Henley is a huge risk but could be turning the thing around after a slew of MCs earlier in the season.
Lucas Glover (DK $7,200, FD $9,100) – He’s got a solid track record at PGA National with a T4 last year and continued improvement each and every time he’s teed it up here (three straight Top 25s in the Honda Classic). He’s about 75-1 but could win here. I’ll be overweight on my GPP ownership and he’s even usable in cash games.
Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – I really like his chances for a Top 10 this week following a T6 in Puerto Rico, mainly because he hits greens (T14 in GIR this season) and seems poised for a solid debut here.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,000, FD $8,500) – Lee didn’t seem too flummoxed by PGA National in his 2019 debut when he finished T7 with Wyndham Clark, and his stats in GIR and Par 4 scoring make him a great bargain.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Gooch is a cut-making machine this year (10 straight) and he’s fared well at some difficult tracks, including a T10 at Riviera in the Genesis. His T20 last season points to a level of growing comfort at this venue (MC in 2018).
Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700, FD $7,800) – Burgoon is my sub-$7K wild card and someone who has navigated the Bear Trap surprisingly well over the years (10 rounds without a bogey). It’s not a catch-all stat, but it’s something to note among the dirt-cheap longshots.
More value golfers forGPPs: Sam Burns, Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Nick Watney, MichaelThompson, Doc Redman, Peter Malnati
Other bargain golfers makingtheir debut at PGA National who could finish among the Top 25: Harry Higgs, Kurt Kitayama,Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Naucalpan, Mexico as the players face off in the WGC Mexico Championship.
Course: Golf Club De Chapultpec
Par: 71
Length: 7,345 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu (Narrow)
Greens: Poa (Fast) – Though it has been pointed out that the greens play more like Bent Grass according to @JBates_golf and @BPSnow11.
Past five winners: ’19 Johnson (-21), ’18 Mickelson (-16), ’17 Johnson (-14), ’16 Scott (-12), ’15 Johnson (-9). (Only the last three years was it played on the current course)
For a hole by hole breakdown, check out the PGA Tour website here.
The WGC Mexico Championship is a no cut event that has been held in Naucalpan, Mexico, just north of Mexico City. The golf course has narrow, tree lined fairways. The elevation above sea level (more then a mile above) make the course play shorter then the yardage would indicate. While the golfers that can drive the ball a mile tend to do well, the raise in elevation really brings in the shorter hitters as well.
While this WGC Mexico tournament is no birdie fest, it should play easier then the Genesis Invitational last week. Average winning score is around -15 and with a star studded field (72 players) there should be no short of excitement come Sunday afternoon.
With an average score setting laid out this week, let’s look at the golfers who have performed well in Stroked Gained Total over the last 12 rounds.
Ball striking, like most weeks, is a crucial part of the golfer’s game. With fairways and greens being smaller than tour average at the WGC Mexico, we’ll need golfers at the top of their game both off of the tee and approach. Here are the top golfers who have excelled in ball striking over the last 12 rounds.
While the course lists the greens as Poa, the idea that they play more like bent has been mentioned. Here are the top 10 golfers both on Poa and Bent as well as their baseline to begin with.
With all three course conditions applied, here are the top 10 golfers. If last week is any indication, you might see this list near the top of the leader board. At the Genesis Invitational , the top 10 included: eight cut makers, three top fives with both Kuchar (T2) and the winner Adam Scott.
The WGC Mexico has five holes that play extremely tough as they’re Par 4s that are 500+ yards. The elevation should help and you can think of them more as 450 yard Par 4, but having golfers that excel in this range could be a huge help. To narrow it down even further, I’m specifically looking at the 125 – 150 range for proximity.
Opportunity Gained will be factored in once again, from Fantasy National. While I think Bogey Avoidance holds some water at the WGC Mexico Championship, with a no cut event, I’m targeting birdie makers/fantasy point scorers (BOB/DK Points).
Here are the top players with all the combined stats from above.
I think looking at golfers that have length on their drive is a solid starting point but I wouldn’t rule out the shorter hitters all together. Perhaps use the distance as a tie breaker. The field is stacked despite some of the top name skipping this week. With that in mind, you’ll see golfers lower in salary then normal but just because they’re cheap doesn’t mean they’re a good play. No cut events are fun, because your roster is never dead but it can often be frustrating as the edge diminishes. I would recommend playing lite this week.
Course Setup
Average scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens (Bent grass feel)
Player Efficiencies
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 yards
BOB
Opportunity Gained
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the WGC Mexico Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
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