PGA: ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL GPP PICKS

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We have a great PGA field this week and I think there are plenty of guys in the lower ranges that have sufficient upside in terms of making the cut and finishing Top 10-20.  Don’t be afraid to take a chalky stud and find your ownership leverage in the weeds with some mid-tier or lower-tier guys. 

10k and above

Rory McIlroy (11800/12200) – Yes, it’s chalky but you’ll find your ownership leverage elsewhere. He’s finished 6^th, 1^st, and 4^th in the last three years at Bay Hill.  He’s in good form and he’s by far the most talented guy in this PGA field.  I’m not worried about his price because I like plenty of guys in the lower ranges.

Bryson DeChambeau (10400/11700) – I think Bryson is primedto have a breakout season and he’s well on his way with two Top 5 finishes inhis last two tournaments.  He’s also made3 out of 3 cuts at Bay Hill and that includes a 2^nd place finish in2018.   His T2G numbers and associated metrics havebeen fantastic and he can get hot with the putter so he’s got a shot to finishat the top on Sunday.

9k and above

Patrick Reed (9400/11100) – I’ve been on Patrick Reed ever since the Watergate-Esque cheating scandal a couple of months back.  Since then Patrick Reed has had something to prove and he did just that at the PGA WGC (which proved very profitable for those who had him outright to win, thank you very much).  Reed has been grading out well and he’s been red hot with the putter (he’s also great on Bermuda greens).  Perhaps we see some regression in the putting department this week but I’m going to continue to ride the heater.  This 9k range doesn’t feel great to me so my only pivot here will be to a low owned Brooks Koepka.

8k and above

Collin Morikawa (8400/10100) – the great news on Morikawa is he makes every cut and the discouraging news is that he almost never finishes in the PGA Top 10.  Hopefully, that will temper his ownership numbers this week.  One thing to note is that the main reason he has been fading on the weekends is that the guy just can’t putt.  I’m hoping for some positive regression in that department.

Tyrrell Hatton (8100/9900) – Hatton was out for the front end of the season due to a wrist injury which is what scared me off of him at the WGC two weeks ago.  But he came out firing at the PGA WGC and finished a very solid 6^th overall.   I think he is a great play at Bay Hill and he has a proven track record in the wind (which should be a pretty big factor, particularly on the weekend).  He’s got a good track record here which includes a 4^th place finish in 2017.  When this guy is on he has the upside to take down a tournament.  I should note that I will have Tony Finau in a couple of lineups (15% or less) from this 8k range.

7k and above

Abraham Ancer (7800/9700) – I’m hoping Ancer’s ownership is down this week due to his track record at Bay Hill (one appearance in 2019 and it was a missed cut) and the fact that he hasn’t been super active lately on the PGA Tour.  I’ve been on Ancer for well over a year and I really like his game.  His stats grade out just fine as he’s gaining strokes in most categories (barely gaining in some cases).  Notable finishes this year include a 12th at the WGC and a 2nd at the PGA AmEx.  When he’s locked in he can compete at the top and I think he’s underpriced here.  I’ll note that I will have a couple of shares of Max Homa in this top-end 7k range.

Maverick McNealy (7400/8800) – An all-around solid player that is finally getting some attention.  McNealy hasn’t missed a cut since the Sanderson Farms in September of 2019.  He finished 11th last week at the Honda and 5th at the Pro-Am.  Interestingly, he was a modest 27th in the watered downfield in Puerto Rico.  Perhaps he rises to the occasion when the field becomes rich with talent.  A solid play at this price.

J.B. Holmes (7400/9000) – I think the general perception ofJ.B. is that he can absolutely crumble when things are going poorly, but Ican’t ignore his track record on courses similar to Bay Hill and his ability towin in talented laden fields.  Add tothat he is in a groove with his putter which will be very important thisweek.  You should be able to pick up someleverage here as I don’t think JB will be a popular play.  With that said, I won’t be overweight on J.B.

Christian Bezuidenhout (7100/8300) – Speaking of low owned players, here’s a guy that many haven’t even heard of.  CB3 (I coined that nickname and you can feel free to use it) is a PGA European Tour player that has been great relative to his price range in DFS.  With that said, his around the green metrics are not great and I think that may hurt him a bit.  I’ll have CB3 but only in a few lineups (10-20%).

Carlos Ortiz (7100/8700) – Ortiz has been good but not greatlately.  But at this price we are gettinggood value on a golfer that has talent, will be able to handle the windyconditions and who has made five out of six cuts.  Ortiz hasn’t played Bay Hill a ton but didfinish 29^th last year.  Add tothat his 2020 form has been very good as he’s gaining OTT, APP, ARG, PUT andT2G.  Coming off a 16^th at theWGC we may have a gem here that could find himself competing toward the top onSaturday and Sunday.

6k and above

Sebastian Munoz (6900/8600) – No course history here but has been great lately with a 14^th at the WGC and a 26^th at the PGA Genesis.  He’s also made 4 out of his last 5 cuts.  He also finished 3^rd at the RSM so he’s not a stranger to the top of the leaderboard.  His stats grade out pretty well as he’s gaining strokes in all relevant metrics which is punctuated by a 1.18 SG combining OTT, APP, ARG, PUT and T2G. 

Matthew NeSmith (6800/8000) – Grades out well from a numbers standpoint and has played very well this year.  He’s finished Top 40 in each of his last seven events (with a few Top ’20s peppered in there).  That may not sound super impressive, but it is when you consider his price.  Note that this will be NeSmith’s first go at Bay Hill.  I’ve been riding NeSmith for a while now but I may tread a little light with him this week, projecting my personal ownership in the 20% range.

Sung Kang (6800/88200) – The ultimate hit or missgolfer.  Kang provides us with ownershipleverage plus the upside to finish Top 10, as he exhibited last year at BayHill with his 6^th place finish. He also has some impressive recent form with a 2^nd placefinish at the Genesis (only to be backed up by an unimpressive 71^stat the WGC).  I’ll note that his OTT, APPand T2G numbers are pretty solid this season so it’ll likely be up to his putterand scrambling if he wants to make a big impact this week.  Again, hit or miss with upside and ownershipleverage.  I’ll pepper him into a fewGPP’s.

Nick Taylor (6700/8100) – I’ve seen him show up in enough big spots, including an outright win at Pebble, to take a shot with Nick Taylor.  Certainly won’t be too overweight on him but he should buy you some leverage and he has proven that he has the upside to justify this pick.  His season has been very up and down but he grades out just fine at Bay Hill when we consider his price tag.

Mark Hubbard (6500/7800) – Flying under the radar if weconsider an 11^th at Honda last week and a 9^th inPhoenix.  He’s been making more cuts thanhe’s missing in 2020 and he clearly has Top 10-15 upside.

Sample Lineup 1:  Rory, Reed, Ancer, McNealy, Ortiz, Hubbard

Sample Lineup 2:  Rory, DeChambeau, Holmes, Munoz, Nesmith, Taylor

Sample Lineup 3: DeChambeau, Koepka, Hatton, Morikawa, Bezuidenhout, Kang

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