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Tom Brady

Wildcard Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Buffalo @ Houston – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -3 | Over/Under 41.5

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game.

However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018.

Running Backs

Do not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17.

It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

At the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday.

The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells.

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Titans @ Patriots – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: New England -5 | Over/Under 43.5

Quarterbacks, Defenses

As a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.

The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland.

All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career.

Running Backs

The Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.

Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Outside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense.

https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1211745999510757376

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung.

https://twitter.com/TDavenport_NFL/status/1212459802338701312

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Vikings @ Saints – 1:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 47

Quarterbacks, Defenses

The 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks.

Running Back

The Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.

Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

The one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go.

Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1.

This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target.

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Eagles – 4:40 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

This is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback.

Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense.

Running Back

Over the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs.

Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week.

https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1211669370860167168

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

I have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown.

Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage.

https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc/status/1211742048266547200

Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 17 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Starting off with a bit of a wild card here. Sam Darnold has been looking improved in his last five games with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the fifth seed for the playoffs and this game means absolutely nothing but pride for them. They have already ruled Shaq Lawson out and Darnold played decent against the Bills Week One while dealing with mono. Expect a great performance at this price and pay up for other skill positions in your lineup.

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

The naysayers will say that Brady doesn’t perform well in South Florida but I would counter that with a look at this Miami Dolphins team. This is a great chance for the Patriots offense to get back in stride with a weaker opponent heading into a probable bye week. Tom Brady had one of his better statistical games against this Dolphins team with 264 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a nice performance at another relatively cheaper price than normal for the quarterback slot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over with just three interceptions this season. The Lions have surpassed the Arizona Cardinals as the worst passing defense in the NFL and have six interceptions, the lowest in the league. Aaron Rodgers should be a gunslinger in this game and be around 300 yards as well. No need to discount double-check this decision.

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

With the division title on the line in Week 17 in a primetime matchup, there are very few quarterbacks I would want outside of Russell Wilson. Coming off an all-around stinker against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks should come out on all cylinders against the 49ers. Yes, the numbers say the 49ers pass defense should limit him but the last three weeks do not look good for that defense.

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

He currently is listed as questionable with a back injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is under center on Sunday afternoon. Going up against a hungry Titans team still competing for a playoff opportunity, Watson will have the energy to compete instead of “taking the week off”. He played well in the matchup these two teams had earlier in the season and I expect very similar numbers out of him as well.

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Patrick Mahomes had a bit of a struggle at points in this season but last year’s MVP has been heating up in his last three games. He played against top-level defenses in that span and should be easier for him with the Chargers in town. With the opportunity of a potential bye still looming, expect Patrick Mahomes to showcase his abilities on Sunday.

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Jameis is on the injury report ahead of this game with a thumb and knee injury. This Atlanta team is completely different than the one Winston saw a month ago, with three consecutive victories and a team that will not be changing regimes in the offseason. Without some of his favorite targets on the field due to injury, expect a stinker from Jameis to end this season.

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Do not buy into last week’s offensive performance from Case Keenum once Dwayne Haskins was carted off. This Cowboys team is somehow still competing for the NFC East crown and need to win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. Keenum had back-to-back stinkers before being demoted to the backup and that’s more of what I expect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

The fact that he is facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England defense is the main reason why Fitzpatrick is on this list. With a New England victory, they clinch a Wild Card bye and that will motivate the defense. I don’t necessarily believe he will turn into FitzTragic here, but I’m not believing in the Miami offense either.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 317.5 passing yards.

You can read about each of these quarterbacks above but as a summary, Jameis Winston should struggle without his main weapons against the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand should have a 300 yard day with the Chargers looking to end their miserable 2019 season.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Saturday DFS Week 16 Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.

Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily Podcast

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Texans @ Buccaneers – 1 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -1 | Over/Under 53

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary.

Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000).

https://twitter.com/gregauman/status/1206980103256850432

Defenses

It’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback.

Running Backs

The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks.

https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1206816955224772608

For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

As I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position.

https://twitter.com/draftroompod/status/1207335740704735232

As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Bills @ Patriots – 4:25 PM EST Opening Line: New England -6.5 | Over/Under 38.5

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Both the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football.

There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.

Running Backs

The best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.

On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Starting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks.

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Rams @ 49ers – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -6.5 | Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Both the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers.

Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught.

Running Back

Todd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800).

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Neither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G.

As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”

Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks.

Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 16 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

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Week 16 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, ARI vs SEA

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,300)

Russell Wilson vs Arizona’s defense, that is all. It looks like he is rediscovering a connection with Tyler Lockett, which is key with Josh Gordon being suspended. In his last five games, Wilson is averaging 240 yards. The Cardinals are allowing 306.9 passing yards per game and are still the defense I expect to crumble. Especially with the different playoff situations that could happen, this should be the building block for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.

Lamar Jackson, BAL @ CLE

DK ($8,000) FD ($9,300)

Do I even need to give you numbers for this one? The only reason you could argue this is questioning how long Jackson will be in the game. This Cleveland Browns team has completely given up and are now iffy at best. Lamar had a great game last time these two met as he went for 247 passing yards with three touchdowns and two picks. He also ran nine times for 66 yards. Expect another Lamar Jackson-esque game here.

Dak Prescott, DAL @ PHI

DK ($6,400) FD ($8,000)

His appearance on the injury report and being limited in practice does not scare me in the least. Philadelphia is tied for allowing the seventh-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. The Eagles also allow a lot of big passing plays with 14 passes of at least 40 yards. The injuries that have stockpiled on their offense will allow Prescott to control the ball. Last week’s annihilation of the Rams also plays a factor in this decision. Expect a solid game and the NFC East clinched here.

Week 16 Quarterback GPP Plays

Matt Ryan, JAX vs ATL

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,700)

Ryan has thrown for multiple touchdowns for the last two games. He also has not thrown an interception in the month of December. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not in a great position with the firing of Tom Coughlin and their defense doesn’t force interceptions as well. Expect a nice outing out of Ryan at a solid price point.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,400)

I feel this will bring quite the upside in an otherwise meaningless game that many people will forget about. Cincinnati locks in the first overall pick in 2020 with the loss so I wouldn’t be shocked if the call from above is to lose. Obviously, players don’t care about tanking and will play regardless. FitzMagic should be in full effect and pick up a fourth consecutive solid outing against weak opponents. He could make your quarterback skill position a lot stronger with him in your DFS lineup.

Drew Brees, NO @ TEN

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,200)

Coming off one of the single greatest performances by a quarterback, Drew Brees is going up against the Tennessee Titans. Still competing for the number one seed, Brees will still be competing at the highest level. The Titans allow 258.1 passing yards per game and that is the eighth-highest in the NFL. Expect a great game out of Brees, which isn’t such a difficult thought.

Week 16 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, BUF @ NE

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,600)

In his last game against the Pats, he went 13-of-28 with 153 yards and three interceptions. Bill Belichick has a way of making opposing quarterbacks feel uncomfortable and with a solid defense, don’t expect a big return with Josh Allen under center for your NFL DFS team.

Tom Brady, BUF vs NE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,400)

This Patriots offense is not threatening, especially going against an elite Buffalo defense that is mathematically still alive for the AFC East divisional title. The Patriots have struggled against speedy defenses this season and Buffalo is another one of those. It’s hard to see the Pats having a chance to run the ball. Brady also went 18-of-39 for 150 yards and a pick last time these two teams faced off. Don’t try to get too cute with your quarterback selection here.

Derek Carr, OAK @ LAC

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,300)

With the news that Josh Jacobs will not play in this game, I don’t see the Raiders running the ball as much. Carr is an average quarterback and when a defense can suspect the pass, it probably won’t be a great outing for Carr. The Chargers pass defense is already elite without the help as they allow just 197.4 passing yards a game, which is fourth in the NFL. With all the signs pointing against Derek Carr, it makes sense to fade him in this matchup.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Patrick Mahomes over 290.5 passing yards and Mitchell Trubisky under 241.5 passing yards.

Pat Mahomes is going against an injury-plagued Chicago Bears defense. Coming off a great game against the Denver Broncos, Mahomes had 340 yards through the air. I expect another 300+ yard passing game out of Mahomes. Trubisky, on the other hand, has big yardage days but I see the Chiefs dominating the time of possession in this game. Trubisky is turnover-prone so he won’t have the opportunity to put up these types of numbers.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 13 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 13 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

Sam Darnold has been on a roll the past three weeks throwing just one interception. He has not faced the stiffest of competitions with the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders in that span. The offense is clicking and facing another weak opponent in Cincinnati. Going up against a Bengals team that The Bengals allow 251 yards per game and are in a position to lose this game to secure the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Expect a big day at a great price for Darnold.

Jared Goff, LAR @ ARI

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,900)

This is the game where Goff shuts the critics up because he has to. People are now asking the question if he was worth the $110 million guaranteed money and coming off a bad game on Monday night. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the perfect remedy for this Rams offense. Goff is completing 62% of his passes this season and the Arizona Cardinals allow 297.5 yards a game through the pass. The team also allows the most passing touchdowns, passing first downs and quarterback ratings in the league. This is the perfect opportunity for Goff to correct a lot of his mistakes made in the past month.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ IND

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,300)

This might come as a shocker but Ryan Tannehill has the second-highest completion percentage this season with 72.1%. The only concern is his yards per game are just over 200, but the Colts give up 34 passing attempts a game and allow 235 passing yards a game. On a shorter slate due to the Thanksgiving games, there might be value going outside the norm for the quarterback position.

Week 13 Quarterback GPP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ NYG

DK ($6,500) FD ($8,100)

After getting humiliated against the Baltimore Ravens last week on a national level, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing in New York. He doesn’t turn the ball over as he has thrown just two interceptions. Rodgers has weapons and a running game to mix in some play-action passes. This Giants defense is not great against the passing attack either. The Giants allowed 260 yards per game and has given 18 touchdowns.

Carson Wentz, PHI @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,300)

Carson Wentz has looked like he has taken a step back lately but the injuries to skill position players for the Eagles seem to continue. As of this writing, Zach Ertz missed practice with a hamstring injury and Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey were limited. If Wentz has two of the three then he should be great. The Dolphins do not pose much of threat defensively to stop a passing attack that the Eagles can have even without big-name targets. Miami doesn’t apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks as they recorded just 14 sacks so far. They also give up a quarterback rating of 106.8 which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. Expect a nice bounce-back performance from Wentz.

Nick Foles, JAX vs TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,500)

Nick Foles has looked like the quarterback the Jags were expecting after returning from injury. In the two games back, he has 47 and 48 attempts so expect the gameplan to continue to be throwing the football. The Bucs are one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL so this matchup hugely favors Foles. Tampa allows 290 yards a game through the air and is susceptible to huge plays as they have given up 10 throws of at least 40 yards. Foles should be a high-demand player in a lot of lineups.

Week 13 Quarterback Fades

Tom Brady, NE @ HOU

DK ($6,100) FD ($8,200)

If you look at the numbers of Tom Brady, it makes you shake your head. He has the same completion percentage (62.2) as Mitchell Tribusky and a QBR of 55.8, meaning he is slightly above average this season. In his last four games, Brady threw for 237.5 yards a game and just four touchdowns. The offense isn’t counting on him to play a big role. Both the Texans and Patriots run the ball 27.5 times a game so expect the time of possessions to be inflated which could keep Brady on the sidelines.

Philip Rivers, LAC @ DEN

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Philip Rivers has not been completing passes at a high percentage lately as in the last two weeks, he has completed just 54.2%. Going up against the Denver Broncos defense is no easy order for him. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest passing yards at 207.5 yards a game. They also allow the fourth-fewest passing first downs so moving the chains is going to be difficult as well. Expect another struggling effort for Rivers as his upside isn’t great in this matchup.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ PIT

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,600)

This has the making of an ugly performance for Baker as it seems a lot will be going on. This is the Steelers first time to “get even” with the Browns since the brawl a few weeks ago. Nothing like that should happen but the Steelers will be playing with extra motivation. OBJ is questionable at the time of this writing and a limited team could struggle in this environment. Baker struggles in both road games and the fourth quarter so don’t expect much out of him in this game.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Aaron Rodgers over 277.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones over 241.5 passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers should easily eclipse this with the reasons I mentioned in his section above. Daniel Jones has the big arm and Green Bay allows 238 yards of passing a game so expecting Danny Dimes to do slightly better isn’t that much of a difficult decision.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 12 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

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Week 12 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,200)

Russell Wilson is dominating so far this season and is one of the MVP favorites. Wilson is averaging 274 yards through the air and Philadelphia is one of the middle-area passing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary is full of question marks and Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (23) and tied for the lowest amount of interceptions by a starting quarterback (2). The Eagles are great against the run so expect Wilson to have an increased amount of attempts and continue dominating opposing defenses.

Kyle Allen, CAR @ NO

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,600)

Coming off of his worst game as a professional, Kyle Allen is looking for retribution. He already has a solid performance against the Saints from 2018. The Saints this season have been vulnerable to deep passes as they have given up eight passes of 40+ yards. Expect around 285 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Allen with the threat of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield taking up most of the defensive attention.

Jeff Driskel, DET @ WAS

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Jeff Driskel has played great in his two games this season against Chicago and Dallas. Going up against a subpar defense, Driskel should be the quarterback you target the most. Washington allows opposing quarterbacks 71.4 percent of passes, which leads the NFL. They also struggle to get to the quarterback as they are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks.

Week 12 Quarterback GPP Plays

Baker Mayfield, MIA vs CLE

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,500)

Baker Mayfield should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins. He has been heating up since Week 8. The Dolphins have just 13 sacks this season and have given up 23 passing touchdowns so far this season. Expect Mayfield to have upper-20s in completions with a lot of yardage. This should be the game that Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry both have great games, which makes Baker even more intriguing.

Drew Brees, NO @ CAR

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,500)

In the three games since returning from his injury, Brees is averaging 296 yards with six touchdowns. The Carolina Panthers are a middle-tier passing defense ranking in the low-teens in important statistical categories. With the weapons that Drew Brees has at his disposal, expect another huge statistical game with 30-plus completions.

Matt Ryan, TB vs ATL

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,900)

Ryan is averaging 27 completions and 296 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s passing defense isn’t good either as they give up the third-most completions and the second-most yards per game at 290.9. His 7.6 yards per attempt is also a huge reason why he should be in your lineup. The passing game of Atlanta with the subpar passing defense of Tampa has all the stars aligning for Matty Ice.

Week 12 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, DEN vs BUF

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,800)

Josh Allen isn’t a productive quarterback so far this season, with a 60.3 completion percentage. That ranks him tied for 42nd of all quarterbacks to have a pass attempt this season. Being behind Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Mitchell Triubisky is not a good sign of accuracy. The Denver Broncos allows the fifth-fewest passing yards at 210 yards per game. He can have a decent game but nothing special, especially for the price Allen is demanding. He doesn’t turn the ball over but isn’t accurate enough to be on your DFS team.

Mitchell Trubisky, NYG vs CHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($7,000)

Trubisky’s price is low enough where I feel he could be a value option but my head is saying no chance. His season-high is 253 yards, which is pedestrian in today’s NFL. The New York Giants are coming off their bye week and the Bears will look to run the ball often as they run 40 percent of their plays. Too much of a risk to take Trubisky on this slate.

Tom Brady, DAL vs NE

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,700)

Tom Brady is not having a great year, especially by his own standards. He has not reached 300 yards passing since Week 6. He looked lost at times against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Dallas Cowboys have a better defense. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett look as if they will be ready for the game on Sunday, which limits how well he can do without many threats.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Matt Ryan over 304.5 yards and Jameis Winston under 300.5 yards

Matt Ryan is averaging 296 yards per game and the Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL. Jameis Winston is coming off an ankle sprain and the Atlanta Falcons give up 107 yards on the ground. It’s difficult to see Tampa not run the ball, especially with how they average 31 minutes on offense a game.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Seven MNF Showdown Guide, Prop Picks and Podcast

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide plays for the Week Seven NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider and also include my favorite prop bets on Monkey Knife Fight.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

O/U: 43.5 (NE -9.5)

NFL DFS: New England Patriots

The undefeated Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the rejuvenated New York Jets. The Patriots have been lights out on defense, logging 25 sacks and maintaining the second highest adjusted sack rate in the league (10%). They have also been very stingy on the ground, allowing just over 3.4 yards per carry. The one thing everyone is talking about is the inconsistencies in the NE offense. They aren’t great in the run game, they average just over three YPC. They also haven’t been stellar in pass protection, allowing a 5.8% adjusted sack rate. Not the worst in the league, but enough to cause concern against a very underrated Jets defense. To make matters worse, WR Josh Gordon, TE Ryan Izzo, and TE Matt LaCosse have already been ruled out. Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Patrick Chung, and Rex Burkhead are all listed as questionable to play.

NFL DFS: New York Jets

The savior of the New York Jets returned last week and put on quite a show against the Cowboys. There aren’t any stats for me to bolster for the Jets, who rank second to last in pass protection (25 sacks allowed) and average just over three YPC. I’m going to say the same thing I said last week when I wrote up the Jets offense, forget everything you think you know about this team. They had Luke Falk under center, who quite frankly doesn’t have the intangibles to even be an NFL QB, but they made due with what they had and that is reflected through the stats. It is easy to defend an offense with a QB that can’t throw outside the numbers, so you can just stack the box and defend their All-Pro running back.

It is worth noting the Jets are missing two starting offensive linemen (Kelechi Osemele, Kelvin Beachum). Sam Darnold will also be without 2018 standout TE Chris Herndon, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. I feel like the Jets offense is going to be effective tonight. The Patriots have had a vanilla schedule for six weeks and now they get a division opponent with their starting QB back and some great weapons at his disposal.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Preferred (in order of preference): Sam Darnold ($13,500), Julian Edelman ($16,800), Robby Anderson ($10,200), Patriots DST (10,800).

NFL DFS Flex:

(Whoever you do not use in Captain is also great in the flex): Tom Brady ($11,600), Phillip Dorsett ($6,600), James White ($7,400) Ben Watson ($4,400), Ryan Griffin ($2,100), Brandon Bolden ($4,800), Jameson Crowder ($7,000) Sam Ficken ($3,600). Not crazy about Le’Veon Bell tonight, but his volume can’t be ignored. Le’Veon Bell ($9,200)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Tom Brady (cash) ($15,500), Sam Darnold ($14,500), Julian Edelman (14,000), Phillip Dorsett ($8,500)

NFL DFS: Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks of the Day – Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!

NFL DFS Prop Picks:

Julian Edelman – Edelman averages nearly seven receptions for game and should see an uptick with Josh Gordon already confirmed out for tonight’s game.

Le’Veon Bell – Bell averages nearly six receptions per game and should continue to see targets out of the backfield, one of the reasons he was brought to New York.

Jamison Crowder – I had to make a decision between Crowder and Robby Anderson, but Crowder will see me volume just based on where he lines up (slot). Crowder averages nearly six receptions per game.

The safest play will be for 2x your bet, but you can certainly make a case for the three of these guys to combine for over 20 receptions in this game.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 3 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

The NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Picks Of Destiny

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

Week 2 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

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Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,700 FD; $6,700 DK)

Lamar Jackson played almost perfectly in Week 1 vs the Miami Dolphins. I know that Miami defense looked particularly bad, but Jackson also looked fantastic throwing for 324 yards and five touchdowns. Can you imagine if he would have run for more than six yards?! Jackson faces the Arizona Cardinals this week, who just gave up 385 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Stafford at home. Jackson is going to be chalky, but like I said with Dalvin Cook last week, that doesn’t mean he is a bad play. He will be popular for a reason. He is in another great NFL DFS spot.

Patrick Mahomes: ($9,000 FD; $7,500 DK)

It feels like it is going to be another week where MVP Patrick Mahomes is going to be in a great matchup and low owned. People will fade him because there is a questionable tag by his name and because Tyreek Hill is out. Mahomes did just fine on his ankle last week and Hill basically missed the entire game. This was also vs an overhyped, yet good defense in Jacksonville. Mahomes will look to Kelce, Watkins and his pass catching backs a lot this week. The MVP will hit Kelce for at least one touchdown, and makes right for missing him in the end zone last week.

Mid Quarterback: Tom Brady ($7,800 FD; $6,400 DK)

The Patriots are going to win this game and Vegas thinks it’s going to be by a lot (-19). Tom Brady should tear them up the first three quarters before this game gets out of hand and he either gets pulled, or hands it off the entire fourth quarter. I like the NFL DFS price on Brady, and honestly don’t love a lot of other quarterbacks. I will have a Brady team.

Quarterback Punts: Josh Allen, Andy Dalton

Running Backs

Stud RB: Saquon Barkley ($9,200 FD; $9,200 DK)

It feels like a Saquon week and it has not been hard to fit him in my lineups. The Giants open at home vs the the Buffalo Bills and should absolutely feed Barkley. He looks elite again this year and gets a much easier matchup than the Cowboys were last week. He only got 11 carries, but a lot of that was game script. The Giants fell behind early and threw the ball more than they would have liked. Barkley did get six of those targets, though. Look for the Giants to control the tempo of this game more with getting Barkley going early and often. Lev Bell got his vs the Bills last week, Barkley will too.

Stud Pivot: Ezekiel Elliot

Mid RB: Mark Ingram ($7,500 FD; $6,000 DK)

Ingy impressed his first week as the new Baltimore Ravens featured back. He got 14 carries, 107 yards and two touchdowns before the Ravens pulled their starters. The Cardinals defense did fine against Kerryon Johnson last week, holding him to 49 yards, but I am not that high on Johnson to begin with. Ingram is a vet and never takes a play off. The Ravens trust him to move the chains and give him looks in he red zone. The Ravens defense will also be popular and it is a good idea to pair running backs with defenses. The more the ball turns over, the better the chances that the Ravens are winning, and therefore looking to the run game more.

Mid Pivot: Josh Jacobs

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Sammy Watkins ($7,400 FD; $7,200 DK)

He is going to be popular, but man, has he earned it. If you want to fade him vs the Oakland Raiders based on ownership, I get it, but he is in another ideal spot this Sunday. He looked as good as ever in week one catching three touchdowns for 198 yards. There is no Tyreek Hill for a few weeks so Watkins and Kelce are both going to be putting up monster numbers. The Broncos were beating the Oakland Raiders by giving their receivers the opportunities to come up with big plays, whether that was getting them in a little space or throwing the deep ball. Both of these Watkins excels at and I have to get a few NFL DFS shares of him on Sunday.

Stud Pivots: Adam Thielen

Mid WR: Tyler Boyd ($6,300 FD; $6,500 DK)

I will be highly invested in Tyler Boyd this week. The San Fransisco 49ers head to Cincinnati this Sunday and to try and spoil the Bengals’ first home game. Boyd has shown us in the past what he can do as a number one receiver vs a poor defense. Once A.J. Green went down last year, Boyd had three games with over 100 yards and was targeted the most on the Bengals. Targeting the San Fran D should also be profitable in NFL DFS this year. They may have held the Tampa to under 200 yards through the air last week, however I put that more on Winston’s struggles. Boyd had 11 targets and eight receptions for 60 yards in Seattle last week. This week he will do much, much more.

WR Midrange Pivots: Will Fuller, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf

Value WR: Tyrell Williams ($5,900 FD; $4,400 DK)

Oakland should have to throw it a lot here vs the visiting Chiefs. Williams was targeted seven times in their win against the Broncos and emerged as the clear top option for the Raiders. The Chiefs are also struggling in the secondary, much like last year. The Jaguars backup QB was able to come in for the injured Nick Foles last week, and put up 275 yards with two touchdowns. Tyrell Williams at $5,900 on FanDuel feels underpriced for his role in the offense. When the Raiders get in the redzone he should be the first one targeted. He pulls his weight here and exceeds value.

WR Punt: Damion Willis

Tight End

Stud TE: Travis Kelce ($8,000 FD; $7,300 DK)

Lock. No Tyreek Hill gives the best tight end in the league a tremendous boost. He is getting in the end zone this week, at least once. Patrick Mahomes told reporters after last weeks win that he “owed Kelce lunch” for missing him in the end zone last week. He makes up for it this week vs the Oakland Raiders. Kelce may be the highest priced NFL DFS tight end this week, but he may also be the highest scoring.

Stud TE Pivot: Evan Engram

Value TE: T.J. Hockenson ($6,000 FD; $3,000 DK)

He got nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL game. It is safe to say Stafford trusts him already. I don’t expect him to exceed what he did in Week 1 but at $6,000 on FanDuel he is a safe NFL DFS play with upside.

TE Pivot: Darren Waller

Defense

Ravens
Titans
Giants (punt)

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5 years ago 0 comments

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