thumbs-up-solid
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
START FREE TRIAL
 
thumbs-up-solid
START FREE TRIAL
thumbs-up-solid
START FREE TRIAL
Home / The Range / Page 2
Tag:

The Range

PGA

The Range: The Genesis Open

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: Riviera CC ( Pacific Palisades, CA )
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu
Greens: Poa
Past five winners: ’19 JB. Holmes (-14), ’18 B. Watson (-12), ’17 D. Johnson (-17), ’16 B. Watson (-15), ’15 J. Hahn (-6)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

Since the 1999 season, the Genesis Open is played at the Riveria Country club. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is -12 with a high of -17 and a low of -6. Twelve of the last twenty rounds have rated as a difficult score. Let’s look at some of the top golfers over the last 24 rounds and how they’ve fared with difficult scoring.

The fairways at the Genesis Open are more narrow than tour average, with this in mind we’ll want to focus on golfers who are sharp ball-strikers (like most weeks). Below are the top ten golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Strokes gained putting tends to be a high correlation to success here. Golfers who can perform well on Poa greens could gain an edge on this tough course. The illustration here shows the top golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Here are the golfers that have performed well under all three conditions listed above.

Player Fit – Back End

At the Genesis Open, most of the toughest holes and a few of the easiest holes are the Par 4 450 – 500 yards. Looking for golfers that excel in this range will be a nice spot to start. Between the Par 3s and the longer holes on the Riviera CC, the long irons will play a huge role. Look for golfers that play well between 175 – 200 yards in proximity.

With the smaller greens, GIR should play a big part. For those that miss the greens in regulation, they’ll need to be able to scramble to save par. As usual, Opportunity Gained will be part of the model but unlike most weeks I’m leaning more bogey avoidance over birdie or better.

Here are the combined stats from up above which will represent the golfers below when they’re evenly weighted.

Final Recap for the Genesis Open

Looking for players that have played the course before should be a priority. I’m not saying new timers cannot do well, but according to Datagolf the Riviera CC plays only behind Augusta for course history relevance.

Course Setup
Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens

Player Efficiencies
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
The proximity between 175 – 200 yards
GIR
Scrambling
Opportunity Gained
Bogey Avoidance

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Genesis Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to Arizona as the players face off at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: TPC Scottsdale
Par: 71
Length: 7,266 yards
Fairways: Bermuda, hard to hit.
Greens: Bermuda, larger than tour average.
Architect: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish
Past five winners: Fowler -17 (’19), Woodland -18 (’18), Matsuyama -17 (’17), Matsuyama -14 (’16), Koepka -15 (’15)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

The Phoenix Open plays at the TPC Scottsdale course in Arizona. The average score has been around 16 under par and I don’t see that changing this year. While 16 under is a nice score, it’s not exactly a birdie fest and we’ll look to treat this course as an average scoring tournament. Here are the top 10 golfers that have performed the best over the last 24 rounds.

While fairways are tougher to hit here at the WMPO, landing in the rough isn’t all that bad. The distance over accuracy tends to be a more dominating factor. With this in mind we’ll look at golfers that perform well off of the tee.

The greens are Tifdwarf Bermuda with an overseeding of Rye. Golfers tend to have issues putting on this surface in the past. Here are the top 10 golfers who perform the best in the field on Bermuda.

Below are the to golfers that have performed well overall three course descriptions above.

Player Fit – Back End

The toughest holes on this course are Par 4s and fall in between 450 – 500 yards. On the flip side, the easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 550 – 600 yards. Being able to perform well on these holes with both birdies and avoiding bogeys will be crucial. Most approach shots come from the 150-175 range, so looking for golfers that perform well within that proximity is a good starting point.

GIR will show up here but I believe there is a bit of noise in the stat this week. The greens are rather large so it inflates its importance for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. As always I’ll include Opportunity Gained in the stat pool when selecting my golfers.

Here are the top golfers with the 6 stat fields being evenly weighted over the last 12 rounds.

Final Recap of the WMPO

I believe driving distance could be a solid direction to lean on when selecting golfers. Players that have played the course before tend to do better than incoming course rookies.

Course Setup

Average Scoring Course
Hard to hit fairways
Bermuda Greens

Player Efficiency

Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
The proximity between 150 – 175 yards
Opportunity Gained
Ball Striking

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Phoenix Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

Farmers Insurance Open: The Range

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in California as the players face off at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course(s): Torrey Pines South and North
Par: 72
Length: South – 7,698 yards, North – 7,258 yards.
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua, 4,500 sq ft in size, below tour average.
Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye. Rough will be at three and a half inches.
Architect: William Bell originally with a redesign in 2001 (Rees Jones) and later the North Course in 2016 (Tom Weiskopf).
For a hole by hole breakdown of the South Course, click here.
For a hole by hole breakdown of the North Course, click here.

Like last week this will be a course rotation. Each golfer will get a turn on both the North and South course for the Farmers Insurance Open. After the cut (Top 65 and ties) on Friday, golfers will play the remaining weekend on the South Course.

Course Breakdown

Last year the FIO played easier than expected and the winning score was in the low 20s. Previous years the top golfer finished between six to 13. I think the scoring comes back down from years past and with that in mind, let’s look at the top 10 golfers who perform well on average to difficult scoring courses.

On the South course more so than the North course golfers will find hitting the fairways to be troublesome. Most of the fairways are narrow than tour average with trees on both sides. Here are the top golfers in the field when it comes to OTT (off the tee) on hard to hit fairways.

Coming off of Bermuda, the field of golfers will have to contest with Bentgrass greens with Poa Annua. Let’s look at some of the best golfers with dealing with the greens here at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Here are the top 10 golfers with all three course conditions factored in.

Player Fit – Back end

North Course – Farmers Insurance Open

The hardest holes on the course are Par 4 between 450 – 500 yards. The easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. Being able to avoid bogey on the Par 4 and birdie on the Par 5 will be critical. With the North course playing shorter golfers should have a smaller iron or wedge in their hands for the second shot. Look for golfers who do well between the 150 – 175-yard range for proximity. Birdie or better will be huge on the North course though it gets played only once out of the four days, assuming the golfer makes the cut.

South Course – Farmers Insurance open

This is where the two courses have a similarity. The toughest holes to play on the South course is between 450 – 500 yards on the Par 4. Par 5 also plays as the easiest but they range from 550 – 600 yards. Golfers will have to be able to play the second shot with 200+ yards in most cases. While opportunity gained should always be used, Bogey Avoidance will be getting applied here. Being able to avoid the big numbers will be key to making the cut and advancing on the weekend.

Below is the top 10 golfers with all player traits evenly weighted for the FIO.

Final Recap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

This tournament is the first of the year that we have a truly loaded field of top-end talent. Players that have been high priced over the start of 2020 will see their pricing suppressed greatly outside of the studs. Just because they’re cheap now doesn’t necessarily make them a good value.

Course Setup
Average to difficult scoring conditions
Hard-hitting fairways
Bentgrass with Poa Annua

Player Efficiencies

North Course –
Par 5 500 – 550
Proximity 150 – 175
Birdie or better

South Course –
Par 5 550 – 600
Proximity 200+
Bogey Avoidance

Farmers Insurance Open Overall –
Par 4 450 – 500
Opportunity Gained
Scrambling

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range – The American Express

Richard Masana
written by Richard Masana

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour lands in California as the players face off at The American Express.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course(s): La Quinta CC, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and Stadium Course
Par: 72
Length: All three courses play under 7,200 yards.
Greens: Bermuda
Architect: Pete Dye (Stadium)
For a hole by hole breakdown, please visit the PGA website here (Stadium).

With this being a Pro-Am, each golfer will play three rounds for The American Express. Each golfer will play the three courses on different days and after the cut, the remaining players will play the Stadium Course on Sunday, again.

Course Breakdown

The American Express is set up to be a birdie fest with the greens and pins in a position for the celebrities to play well. La Quinta and Nicklaus have been the easiest two of the three courses, in recent years. Final scores tend to be in the mid-’20s. The only real defense for this course is the wind, as of this writing though it looks to be rather calm the four days in California. The three-course rotation also allows all types of golfers to be looked at.

With a barrage of birdies from the pros expected, let’s look at the players who perform well on easy scoring courses.

With the fairways being easier to hit and missing them not being penalized as much, I wanted to look at golfers who have a better Ball Striking essence to their game. Ball Striking incorporates both Off the Tee (OTT) and Approach (APP). Here are the top 10 golfers who excel in Ball Striking on easy to average to hit fairways in the last 12 rounds.

As you’ll see being on the west coast you generally deal with Bermuda greens. This week at The American Express, it’s no different. Here are the top 10 golfers who have gained the most strokes putting on Bermuda over the last 12 rounds.

Here are the combined course features into one grouping and the golfers that gained the most strokes total over the rounds.

Player Fit – Back End

Between the three courses, the hardest holes at the American Express are the Par 4 between 450 – 500 yards. There are other tough holes on each course but this is the biggest similarity.

On the flip side, the easiest holes are Par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. Six out of the nine east holes fall in this range. Players must be able to score on these holes to keep pace.

As mentioned in the course breakdown Ball Striking is a key piece to the golfers game that we want to focus on.

Opportunity Gained will always be part of the player’s game that I want to focus on. With any tournament where birdies are a necessity, BOB will always be important. With the stats evenly weighted here are the top 10 golfers over the last 12 rounds.

Final Recap at The American Express

The weather seems to be calm at this point but always check to see if the wind picks up. There has been a lot of talk about where the golfers are starting on each course and how it relates to the winners. Pick the golfers that you like over the four days and roll with them. When it comes to showdowns though it might be best to pick golfers that are playing on the La Quinta and Nicklaus over the Stadium Course.

Course Setup

Easy scoring
Easy to average difficulty in hitting fairways
Bermuda Greens

Player Efficiencies

Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 yards
Ball Striking
Opportunities Gaines
BOB

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range: BMW Championship (FedEx Cup Playoffs)

written by

This week we’ll look back at the Northern Trust and get you ready for the upcoming BMW Championship right here on Win Daily Sports.

Recap of the Northern Trust

Coming into Sunday Reed had the lead but with Rahm right behind him, I wasn’t sure if Reed would be able to hold on. Out of the gate it seemed like Reed was doomed, bogeying several of his first holes. Rahm, in the meantime, not only caught Reed but surpassed him. I thought to myself that the tournament was over at that point. I closed the PGA app and gave my daughter my undivided attention. After a while the itch was too strong and had to peek real quick. To my surprise Reed was back on top but this time fighting off Abraham Ancer. Reed was able to hold off Ancer and win at -16. The win skyrocketed Reed into second place overall in the FedEx Cup standings.

Despite not having Reed (28th in my model) in my personal player pool, I had 15 of 16 golfers making the cut with my only miss being Fowler. He was lined up to make the cut until he double bogied the last hole to fall out. He was in my single entry lineups of course. Nonetheless with a 94% cut rate, I’ll certainly take it. This was the Top 25 going into last week.

With the field narrowed down to only 70 players lets get ready for the second leg of the FedEx Cup with the BMW Championship.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold right here!Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: Medinah Country Club Course #3
Par: 72
Length: 7,613 yards
Greens: Bent / Tour average in size
Fairways: Bent / Narrower than tour average
Architect: Rees Jones
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the course website right here!

Course Breakdown

The BMW Championship is held at the Medinah Country Club Course #3 in Illinois this year. The last time this course hosted a PGA event was in 2012 for the Ryder Cup. Like last week the winning score should be around -14.
‘
Lets start by looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring settings. This week I’ll run the stats through a progression model.

With fairways less than average in width we will want to look at golfers who can place the ball in between the rough. Here are the golfers who gain the most strokes total ranging from average to hit to hard to hit fairways.

The BMW Championship will be played on Bent Greens like last week. Here are the Top 10 golfers who’ve performed the best through the progression model.

Here are the golfers that appear in each chart
Brooks Koepka
Patrick Cantlay
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose

Course History (Tournament History) / Recent Form

The BMW Championship moves around each year, with this is mind we have to look at the tournament history overall. Here are the Top 10 golfers that have performed well in this tournament over the last five years.

Here are the Top 10 golfers in recent from leading up to the BMW Championship.

McIlroy and Rose are the only to that fall into the Top 10 for both recent form and tournament history. Rose is the only golfer to be featured in the Top 10 for all five charts.

Player Fit -Back End Stats

Here is the scorecard for the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.

For the Par 4s we should look at the 400 – 450 yard range with five showing up on the course. Par 5 scoring should be looked at with an overall sense, with three different yardage ranges being represented. Looking over the holes it appears that bombers may have a slight advantage heading into the week so I’ll add Driving Distance to the model with Opportunities Gained always being factored in.

Opportunity Gained, Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450, Par 5 Scoring & Driving Distance weighted evenly.

No real surprise here with who’s in the Top 10, outside of Niemann, coming in second.

Final Recap of the BMW Championship

This is the second to last week for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This will be a no cut event (Kevin Na has WD). With this in mind I’ll look to take more risk with my player pools but play less overall. My pick for The Range last week was Justin Rose and I’m going back to the well again!

Course Setup
Average to Difficult to score
Bent Greens
Average to Difficult to hit fairways

Player Efficiencies
Opportunities Gained
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 yards
Driving Distance
Par 5 Scoring

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for the BMW Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping soon. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, Key Stats and analysis on my personal player pool.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range: Wyndham Championship

ahjc.irf andronKC
written by ahjc.irf andronKC

This week we’ll look back at WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and get you ready for the upcoming Wyndham Championship right here on Win Daily Sports.

Recap of the WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Brooks Koepka winning a non-major? Yup, he was a shot behind McIlroy heading into Sunday but it did’t take long for Koepka to take over. For every misstep that McIlroy had, Koepka came through shining. The biggest surprise was his putter. He gained a whopping 9.3 strokes putting on the field. As if Koepka needed another weapon in his arsenal.

Right before the tournament kicked off I suggested that I’ll never play Brooks in a non major. One tournament in and he’s already beat me. Granted the top guys could always win, he did putt lights out. I do not know if he wins without his flat stick getting NBA Jam hot though. Without the winner in my personal pool I needed my other guys to play strong. They all pretty much did until Sunday when they shot a combined plus three. Thank you Mr. Wallace and Mr. Olesen. Nonetheless, we move to the Wyndham Championship.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold right here!Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: SedgeField CC
Par: 70
Length: 7,127 Yards
Greens: Bermuda
Fairways: Narrower than tour average
Architect: Donald Ross
For a hole by hole breakdown, please visit the PGA website here.

Course Breakdown

The Wyndham Championship is played in Greensboro, North Carolina. The tournament was founded 81 years ago as the Greater Greensboro Open. It wasn’t until 2007 when Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over as title sponsor and changed the name.

Each year the winning score is around -20. Here is the top 10 golfers on easy scoring relative to par courses.

Despite the narrower fairways they tend to be easy to hit, as long as the golfer is accurate. Lets look at the Top 10 golfers in scoring for easy to average hitting fairways.

Like last week this course has bermuda greens. The golfers below represent the Top 10 in putting on bermuda.

The same faces tend to show up towards the top of the leaderboard. Here are the Top 10 in cumulative strokes gained at the Wyndham Championship.

As always it’s always nice to check and see who’s coming in with excellent form. The chart below illustrates the Top 10 golfers in cumulative strokes gained over the last six events.

Out of the five charts above, three players show up four out of five times. They’re Simpson, Matsuyama and Glover. There is no surprise that two of the top golfers in the field are represented but Glover is on there as well. One thing to note about Glover is that the one he’s missing on is course history at the Wyndham Championship (20th).

Player Fit – Back End Stats

Here is the scorecard for SledgeField and how each hole plays to par.

First thing that stands out to me is the birdie rate on Par 5s from 500 – 550 yards. Next is the amount of holes between the range of 400 – 450 yards.

Going back to the scoring, Par 3s at 175 yards. Not only are the Par 3s counted in the range but it’s also has the most approach shots. Last but not least, Opportunities Gained.

Evenly Weighted

Final Recap

In my early research it feels like it’s a three man race between Simpson, Matsuyama and Snedeker. If I had to decide right now, I’m going with Matsuyama.

Course Setup
Easy to score relative to par
Easy to average hitting fairways
Bermuda Greens

Player Efficiencies
Par 5 scoring from 500 – 550 yards
Par 4 scoring from 400 – 450 yards
Opportunities Gained
Proximity from 150 – 175 yards
Par 3 scoring from 150 – 175 yards

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 20 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

This week we’ll look back at The Open Championship and get you ready for the upcoming WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational right here on Win Daily Sports.

Recap of The Open Championship

Congratulations to Shane Lowry on winning the British Open. A piece of redemption after the 2016 U.S. Open. If you don’t remember. Lowry had a four shot lead heading into Sunday, only to see it get squandered away. Lowry finished second to Dustin Johnson that year. In the Open Championship though, Lowry sealed the deal and walked away holding the Claret Jug.

The Insight Sheet took a beating this week. Though the model did have Lowry in the pool, I did not. Not only did we miss the winner, all of our safe bets went to the wayside. McIlroy was the big one that screwed up our plans as I had him everywhere outside of a few lineups. He played so well on Friday shooting six under but unfortunately it was too little too late.

If you were one of the 96 percent who missed a six of six, don’t worry this is your week. WGC-FedEX St. Jude Invitational is a no cut event.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold right here!Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: TPC Southwind
Par: 70
Length: 7,244 yards
Greens: Bermuda – Smaller than tour average
Fairways: Zoysia (It’s fun to say)
Architect: Ron Prichard
PGA tour hole breakdown right here!

Course Fit

The WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational is held at the TPC Southwind course in Memphis, Tennessee. While I don’t expect the wind and course to play as hard as the British Open, this week will not be a birdie fest.

With this being a WGC event, only 64 golfers are in the tournament. 46 of the Top 50 world ranked players are here but that might change with a withdraw or two. For DFS sites, with the small field, expect many golfers to be lower in price than normal.

Top 10 in Difficult to Score Courses
Top 10 in Scoring for Hard to Hit Fairways

TPC Southwind is expected to play tough, with it being difficult to score and hitting fairways. With the charts above, you’ll see some similar names. Outside of Koepka, Fleetwood and Simpson, most of the top players appear in both. Not only will finding the winner be key, avoiding the big name(s) that fall apart will be just as crucial.

Player Fit – Back End

Here is the scorecard for TPC Southwind and how each hole plays to par.

While there is seven Par 4 holes that range from 450 – 500 yards, the birdies are found between 400 – 450 yards. For this reason I’ll look at Par 4 Scoring overall. The two Par 5s play between 500 – 550 yards. I will add those specific yardages to the model as well.

There are several blow up holes with all the obstacles in the way this week. Water comes into play frequently and if that wasn’t enough, bunkers and tree lines will hinder every golfer at some point. For that reason I’ll be including bogey avoidance. Last but not least will be opportunities gained.

Top 10 in Satellite Stats
Evenly Weighted

Final Recap

This week we won’t see high scores but it also will not be as tough as The Open Championship. There will be plenty of big numbers in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational despite the select group teeing it up Thursday. Should make for an exciting tournament.

Course Setup
Difficult to score
Hard to hit fairways
Hazards everywhere

Player Efficiencies
Opportunities Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 yards

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 30 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. Sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here! to make sure you don’t miss out.

Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA

The Range: 3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

This week we’ll go over the Rocket Mortgage Classic from last week and get you ready for the upcoming 3M Open right here on WIN DAILY.

Recap of the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Raise your hand if you had Nate Lashley in your player pool. Don’t worry about it, no one did. DraftKings never added him, so it’s not your fault. Past him though, the top of the leaderboard was a mixed bag of players you may not have expected: Redman, Roach and Potter to name a few.

The Insight Sheet’s results were par (pun intended) for the industry average on the week. Out of the 24 players in my personal player pool, only 14 made the cut. It did include Top 25 players such as Danny Lee (3%), Sepp Straka (4%) and Patrick Reed (8%). This is the first week that my personal player pool did not include the winner (second place this week). We’ll look to right the ship at the new 3M Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71
Length: 7,468
Greens: Bent, Larger than tour average (Cannot find true yardage at this point)
Fairways: Wider than tour average (Some holes, 35 – 40 yards wide)
Architect: Arnold Palmer

Course Fit

Like last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the 3M Open is a brand new stop on the tour. The tournament will be held at the TPC Twin Cities course located north of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The venue was a 17-year staple on the Champions tour (2001 – 2018). For the last seven years on the senior tour TPC Twin Cities ranked first or second in birdies. Similar to last week, I fully expect the 3M Open to be a birdie fest.

With low scoring almost guaranteed, we want to look at courses with easy scoring layouts. The Top 10 in Strokes Gained Total and their collective DraftKings points for such layouts are displayed below.

SG: Total on easy to score courses
Last 50 rounds

Fairway width and location of hazards is a huge part of scoring. Golfers having the ability to choose where to land the ball instead of forcing a shot is crucial. This chart shows the Top 10 in SG: TOT and DK points for easy to hit fairways.

Top 10 in strokes gained total for easy to hit fairways.
Last 50 rounds

Putting will be vital for golfers to succeed this week at the 3M Open. Below are the Top 10 golfers in SG: Putting (bent grass) and their respective putting baselines.

Strokes Gaines Putting on Bent Grass
Last 50 rounds

This article was written before prices are available. Based off these three charts above though, I would take a serious look at Jason Day.

Player Fit – Back End

Below we’ll find the official scorecard from the PGA media guide.

With the anticipation of a low scoring affair, we’ll need to determine which holes to target for a birdie attempt. After reading Chris Hollander’s write up on Twitter, I agree with his assessment. Chris recognizes that holes 1, 4-6, 10, 12, 16 and 18 should all play below par this week. Four of them are Par 4’s with a distance of 400 – 450 yards (six on the course total). The remaining scoring holes are Par 5’s between the distance of 550 – 600 yards and one Par 3.

Golfers who put themselves in position to score DK points will be key to our player pools. For that measure, we’ll include Opportunity Gained and Strokes Gained Putting (bent grass).

Last 50 rounds. Evenly weighted.

The chart above shows the Top 10 ranked in the model with all of the categories listed. Day’s name once again pops up along with DeChambeau and Finau showing up several times.

Final Recap

With the 3M Open, at TPC Twin Cities, becoming a new stop for the PGA tour, drawing data was scarce. Last week with the unknown, I weighted my model to be very balanced, more so than normal. Unfortunately it did not have the greatest success. With similar conditions to last week I’ll be tilting my model to be more birdie/point heavy. Performing this action will hopefully provide a better player pool to choose from.

Course Setup:
Easy to score
Easy to hit fairways
Bent grass greens

Player efficiencies:
Opportunity gained
Par 4 scoring: 400 – 450 yards
Par 5 scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Strokes gained putting

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.

While this artice, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will only be free for a limited time. Make sure you don’t miss out. Sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts
Older Posts

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

"*" indicates required fields

    Built with ConvertKit

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    WIN DAILY® RADIO
    Friday’s 8-10pm Est
    Sunday’s 7-9pm EST

    START FREE TRIAL

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    Close
    -
    00:00
    00:00

    Queue

    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00