This week we’ll look back at the Northern Trust and get you ready for the upcoming BMW Championship right here on Win Daily Sports.
Recap of the Northern Trust
Coming into Sunday Reed had the lead but with Rahm right behind him, I wasn’t sure if Reed would be able to hold on. Out of the gate it seemed like Reed was doomed, bogeying several of his first holes. Rahm, in the meantime, not only caught Reed but surpassed him. I thought to myself that the tournament was over at that point. I closed the PGA app and gave my daughter my undivided attention. After a while the itch was too strong and had to peek real quick. To my surprise Reed was back on top but this time fighting off Abraham Ancer. Reed was able to hold off Ancer and win at -16. The win skyrocketed Reed into second place overall in the FedEx Cup standings.
Despite not having Reed (28th in my model) in my personal player pool, I had 15 of 16 golfers making the cut with my only miss being Fowler. He was lined up to make the cut until he double bogied the last hole to fall out. He was in my single entry lineups of course. Nonetheless with a 94% cut rate, I’ll certainly take it. This was the Top 25 going into last week.
With the field narrowed down to only 70 players lets get ready for the second leg of the FedEx Cup with the BMW Championship.
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Course: Medinah Country Club Course #3 Par: 72 Length: 7,613 yards Greens: Bent / Tour average in size Fairways: Bent / Narrower than tour average Architect: Rees Jones For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the course website right here!
The BMW Championship is held at the Medinah Country Club Course #3 in Illinois this year. The last time this course hosted a PGA event was in 2012 for the Ryder Cup. Like last week the winning score should be around -14. ‘ Lets start by looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring settings. This week I’ll run the stats through a progression model.
With fairways less than average in width we will want to look at golfers who can place the ball in between the rough. Here are the golfers who gain the most strokes total ranging from average to hit to hard to hit fairways.
The BMW Championship will be played on Bent Greens like last week. Here are the Top 10 golfers who’ve performed the best through the progression model.
Here are the golfers that appear in each chart Brooks Koepka Patrick Cantlay Jon Rahm Justin Rose
Course History (Tournament History) / Recent Form
The BMW Championship moves around each year, with this is mind we have to look at the tournament history overall. Here are the Top 10 golfers that have performed well in this tournament over the last five years.
Here are the Top 10 golfers in recent from leading up to the BMW Championship.
McIlroy and Rose are the only to that fall into the Top 10 for both recent form and tournament history. Rose is the only golfer to be featured in the Top 10 for all five charts.
Player Fit -Back End Stats
Here is the scorecard for the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.
For the Par 4s we should look at the 400 – 450 yard range with five showing up on the course. Par 5 scoring should be looked at with an overall sense, with three different yardage ranges being represented. Looking over the holes it appears that bombers may have a slight advantage heading into the week so I’ll add Driving Distance to the model with Opportunities Gained always being factored in.
No real surprise here with who’s in the Top 10, outside of Niemann, coming in second.
Final Recap of the BMW Championship
This is the second to last week for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This will be a no cut event (Kevin Na has WD). With this in mind I’ll look to take more risk with my player pools but play less overall. My pick for The Range last week was Justin Rose and I’m going back to the well again!
Course Setup Average to Difficult to score Bent Greens Average to Difficult to hit fairways
Player Efficiencies Opportunities Gained Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 yards Driving Distance Par 5 Scoring
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for the BMW Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping soon. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, Key Stats and analysis on my personal player pool.
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