Super bowl

Welcome to my preview for the Super Bowl DFS game. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for the big game. Are you ready for some Super Bowl DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price). I will also include some of my favorite prop bets!

Super Bowl DFS – 49ers vs Chiefs – 6:30 PM EST Opening Line: Kansas City -1 | Over/Under 53.5

The opening line above is via the Westgate Superbook for the Super Bowl. At the opening line, it’s been nearly a toss-up in terms of the under/over. Since 2014 via Teamrankings.com there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:

• Over the line 37 times (48.7%).
• Under the line 36 times (47.4%).
• Pushed the line 3 times (3.9%).

The line as also moved .5 on some books including the DraftKings Sportsbook where it is sitting at Chiefs -1.5. Since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 142 games where the closing over/under line moved 0.5 points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the over and underperformed equally, going 71-71 (50.0%). Game totals went over the line by an average of 0.9 points. At this point, with the over moving, the only value I see currently is taking the under.

Quarterbacks Super Bowl DFS

It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($12,600/$16,000) puts on an absolute clinic. Before the playoffs, in the divisional playoff game and championship game Mahomes scored (41 and 35 points respectively), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best fantasy quarterback in the game but that is why he is the most expensive player.

As for Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,000/$14,000), he is the seventh-most expensive player in the game on DraftKings, and on FanDuel he is second right behind Mahomes. The narrative here is that Garoppolo is entering this game very similar to how Ryan Tannehill was. Basically, the Titans were just relying on the run game and Tannehill had thrown for just 160 yards total on 31 passing attempts. In the championship game alone Tannehill went 21-31 for 209 yards and two touchdowns.

I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo over Mahomes. The recency bias will get players far away from Jimmy G. Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 28 passing attempts per game this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last four contests. Tannehill was forced to throw knowing that the Chiefs were going to put up points so I expect more of the same for Garropolo. The Chiefs have allowed on average 37 passing attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks.

With Mahomes facing against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him that we have seen the last two weeks. The argument against Mahomes is that the 49ers’ defense is the best pass defense he will have faced in some time. Via FootballOutsiders the 49ers rank fifth overall in weighted defense, second in pass defense and eleventh in run defense.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs played Houston (26th) and Tennesee (21st) who ranked poorly versus the pass. They closed the season versus Los Angeles (20th). They have not played a pass defense like the 49ers in a recent while. With pass-rusher Dee Ford in the lineup (12 games) the 49ers have allowed just an average of 15.5 points per game. The gap between Mahomes and Garoppolo is closer than you might think for the Super Bowl.

Defenses Super Bowl DFS

For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,000) are the cheaper of the two on DraftKings with the 49ers ($3,600) coming in slightly higher. Both of these defenses can get after the quarterback in passing situations. The current over/under on sack totals in the game is 4.5 sacks. I like the over there.

For defenses/special teams overall, they are important in these single-game contests, but I do prefer the 49ers over the Chiefs. I think the 49ers will ultimately win the game, and that will most likely come due to sacks and turnovers they are able to force. With the Chiefs projected to be pass-heavy regardless of game script, there should be more opportunities for the 49ers defense to generate pressure. Kansas City has a better secondary group, but the 49ers have the better pass rush unit.  I will say a GPP-play type would be stacking the opposing defense versus the defense they are facing. I like stacking Garoppolo with Chiefs defense in large-field tournaments and vice-versa with Mahomes and the 49ers defense.

Running Backs Super Bowl DFS

Damien Williams ($9,800/$14,000) is the third-most-expensive player on DraftKings and is tied as the second-most expensive on FanDuel. I tend to favor rostering pass-catching running backs in the captain spot due to their path to touchdowns. Williams has been getting all the carries and snaps in the Chiefs backfield since returning from injury so I like him a lot. He has nine touchdowns in five career playoff games. With the 49ers heavy zone scheme and a low percentage of blitzes Williams should see plenty of targets in the backfield. The 49ers have allowed the lowest ADOT this season to opposing quarterbacks (6.8).

Additionally, the only team that played more zone than the 49ers did this season were the Los Angeles Chargers, who the Chiefs played twice this season. In those games, the Kansas City running backs averaged 6.5 receptions with the lead back getting at least four receptions.

I do think there is a significant edge when it comes to the 49ers’ backfield. Everybody is going to want to roster Raheem Mostert ($9,400/$13,500) has the perceived starting running back on the 49ers. However, it was just one week ago that Tevin Coleman ($6,400/$10,000) looked like the emerging starter. That ultimately did not come to fruition after his injury, but he looks probably to play in the Super Bowl. Either way, we know the weakness of the Chiefs is their run defense ranking fourth-worst via Football Outsiders. The Chiefs are also not great versus running backs in the passing game. They allowed the fourth-most receptions, most targets, most yards, sixth-most receiving touchdowns, and sixth-most red-zone targets to running backs.

The 49ers have one of the best fullbacks in the NFL. The 49ers this season had a 54% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. They also ran it 32% of the time (#1 in the NFL). The Kansas City defense versus that personnel grouping allowed a 51% success rate and 5.5 yards per carry. Kyle Juszczyk ($1,800/$6,000) is sneaky on DraftKings at his price.

I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,200/$7,500) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his any touches he could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Mostert’s monster performance.

For player props, I find the most interesting one to be the first touchdown and targeting the SF backfield. If you look at the 49ers they ranked number three overall in points scored in the first quarter, with at least one touchdown scored in their last five games in the first quarter. Then consider they led the NFL in rushing touchdowns per game (1.6). Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been notoriously slow starters in the playoffs and on the season as a whole. They have fallen behind by double-digit points in their last three playoff games. During the regular season, they ranked fourth-worst in points allowed in the first quarter.

It almost seems like a lock that one of Mostert, Coleman or Jeff Wilson ($1,500/$5,000) scores in the red zone as the first touchdown. Some odds are for the first touchdown are Mostert (+650), Coleman (+1400), and Wilson (+3500). Considering Coleman led the team in red zone carries in the regular season and was leading before his injury I like the odds there. Hedging with Wilson before any injury news comes out would also be a great edge to investigate.

Wide Receivers Super Bowl DFS

Part of what makes this 49ers’ defense good is they do not give up big plays. One of their weaknesses, however, is their defense in the red zone; especially against 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end, one running back). The 49ers allowed the eighth-highest touchdown rate in the red zone during the regular season.

As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($2,200/$4,900). Especially after a week where he out-snapped and ran more routes than Demarcus Robinson ($2,600/$6,500) who is more expensive on both sites. I am willing again to go right back to the explosive rookie at his very cheap cost. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He also returns kicks so there is another avenue of upside he can bring. Don’t just double dip the buffalo chicken dip: Time for the KC DST – Hardman stack!

If I am paying up for any receiver it would be Tyreek Hill ($11,000/$12,000). He just needs one to make a play and Richard Sherman can definitely be beaten deep. However, Hill also has an extremely low floor and Sherman has a tendency to instead draw pass interference instead of giving up the big play. Hill is far from a lock and I prefer Kelce over him straight up.

We also have an entire season of Sammy Watkins ($7,000/$10,500) underperforming so I am not going to let one game where he caught one deep pass that made the big difference to sway me in heavily rostering him even after a seven-catch nine-target game. He had nine targets and five catches combined over his last three games prior. Watkins is not the play, especially in this matchup where the Chiefs could just sacrifice him to Sherman’s side.

The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. This is another reason to like Garoppolo in this spot along with his receivers. It makes sense to have some exposure to both Deebo Samuel ($7,600/$8,500) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,200/$7,500), but in the Super Bowl, I will lean with the veteran playing in his third Super Bowl. Keep in mind that Sanders has already faced the Chiefs this season and is familiar with this opponent from his days with Denver.

Two of Garoppolo’s biggest games correlated to the two best fantasy games for Sanders this season. Still, Samuel has some additional upside in the fact that he does receive rushing attempts. In GPPs, ultimately the ownership leverage with Sanders over Samuel could be the difference in your lineup.

Sanders is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Samuel and Kendrick Bourne ($3,400)/($7,000) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past three weeks. However, he has Super Bowl experience, and this moment will surely not be too big for him. He can easily expose 1:1 matchups and remember Tyrann Mathieu and can only cover one of him or George Kittle at a time. I prefer the idea of playing them separate from each other in lineups unless I am heavy stacking with Jimmy G.

Lastly, I do think from a fantasy perspective that the 49ers receivers’ are being underrated as a whole along with Jimmy G. The 49ers offense is one of the most explosive in the league, despite the fact that they do not have to necessarily throw the ball down the field to be explosive.

Tight Ends Super Bowl DFS

Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. Travis Kelce ($9,600/$12,500) is going to see volume in this game. He would be my best bet to lead the Chiefs in targets and receptions just because of his role on the offense.

George Kittle ($8,400,/$11,500) is my preferred tight end to play in Super Bowl DFS. The Chiefs versus the tight end position have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, and fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends. For me, Kittle seems the clear value play especially after being held under five fantasy points in back to back weeks. That is his lowest output over any two-game stretch this season. The weakness of the Kansas City defense is in its linebackers and safeties and you can be sure that Kyle Shanahan will draw up some mismatches with his dynamic tight end. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from Kittle. His price is way too low.

Kickers Super Bowl DFS

On both teams, I think that the kickers have value in this game. Butker was the number one-scoring fantasy kicker during the 2019 regular season and Gould ranked in top-seven in points per game (he missed three games). Both the Chiefs and 49ers kickers attempted kicks at the highest rates in the NFL this season. 2.2 attempts per game for KC and 2.4 attempts per game for SF. Both made on average 1.9 attempts per game. The value is in Gould who has a lower price and will probably see projected lower ownership. He has scored at least nine fantasy in six straight weeks. Butker has failed to reach nine fantasy points in two of his last three outings.

Final Thoughts

I do not have sexy six like my boy Javi, but I do have a triple threat of players in this game to build around: Mahomes, Kittle, and Damien Williams to go along with one kicker or one defense. Also if you want to win a large-field GPP you need to leave salary on the table. The easiest way to do this is to make a chalky lineup and then swap out an expensive guy with a cheaper guy in the same position. For example. Make a lineup that uses the majority of salary with Tyreek Hill, then swap him out for Hardman. Do not be concerned with the salary. Any lineup that uses all the salary will be heavily duplicated.