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Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.
Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.
Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.
Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.
Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.
Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.
Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.
Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns
Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.
Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.
Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.
Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.
John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.
Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.
Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.
Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)
Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs.
Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon.
Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.
Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP)
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Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,
Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) – If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.
Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.
Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.
Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.
Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)
Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.
Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.
Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.
Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)
Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.
JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.
Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker
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Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – While we don’t have any real course history to look at, we do know that Rahm is the type of golfer who performs well in no-cut events, and he’s the betting favorite this week with Dustin Johnson withdrawing after a positive COVID test. He could get chalky, but he’s a fine cash game play and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – It’s easy to forget how much of a complete golfer JT is, especially since he has been overshadowed by some of the game’s other (younger) stars. But this PGA tour veteran remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances. That’s going to help this week.
Xander Schauffele (DK $11,400) – Fading Xander seems like a bad idea this week. The X-Man has an impressive record in no-cut events and is capable of dominating from start to finish, even in tough fields like this.
Matthew Wolff (DK $10,000) – Is there a hotter golfer than Wolff? His form and makeup suggest that rostering him is a priority, and there’s reason to believe this T2G monster might come in at low enough ownership to make him a tourney-breaking large-field GPP option. It’s a second-shot golf course, and nobody’s more dialed in than him right now.
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Recency bias could keep the masses off Morikawa, but he’s a great value golfer and high-upside player who belongs in the top tier. He’s 30-1 to win at the CJ Cup, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t take down this field and emerge victorious in Vegas.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton
Daniel Berger (DK $9,300) – Berger is another talented performer who’s elevated his game over the past calendar year, and I’ll have massive shares of him in lineups that use only one of the elite-tier golfers above. Roster construction is going to be tricky this week, but Berger offers some salary relief in all formats – without sacrificing too much upside.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,900) – Can he back up his smack-talking comments criticizing Beefy Bryson now that he’ll get some extra distance from elevation? It’s a 7,500-yard course, and since I’m a massive fan of his T2G and short game, I’ll give him a look in GPPs.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,800) – The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year is one of the best values in the field, and he ranks inside the top 25 in par 5 scoring since the restart. He’s a birdie maker with plenty of GPP upside, even though his past couple of events (withdrew due to COVID, MC) haven’t gone all that well.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,700) – Speaking of upside, I’m intrigued by Im’s recent play and think this could be the week he breaks through with a Top 5 finish. The ball-striking and approach game has improved over the past few events and the South Korean offers massive value at this depressed price.
Harris English (DK $8,600) – Another solid golfer who continues to perform at a high level but hasn’t seen a huge price jump, English makes plenty of sense for cash game builds here. He’s not super exciting to roster, but he gets it done in all types of fields and events.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Outside of a third-place finish at a remarkably tough Winged Foot at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, his upside has been lacking a bit. But there’s still a really dynamic golfer in there who loves to shine at big events, and the no-cut format should help him stay birdie-focused. Worth a look in all formats.
Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Brendan Todd, Gary Woodland
Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500) – Niemann misses a cut once in a while, but that isn’t a problem this week, and his form suggests he could be the best value within the $7-8K range. He’s a wonderful player T2G, and his confidence is building.
Si Woo Kim (DK $7,100) – Kim is way too cheap for how well he handles the slings and arrows that different golf courses will throw at him, and he offers a steady combination of solid approaches and serviceable short game. With three top-15 finishes in his past seven starts, I’ll have plenty of shares at this low price.
Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – The first of three Canadians in this price range we have to discuss, Conners is a longshot to win (100-1) but possesses the game to do well here and should have a good chance at making the Top 20. I’ll have some shares in GPPs.
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,800) – Canadian number two has a little more upside because of his birdie-making ability and recent form (four Top-15s in his last five starts). The price works, too.
Cameron Smith (DK $6,800) – Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he’s had success at this event in the past – albeit at a different venue. He’s also posted four Top-25s in his past five events and has soaring GPP upside under $7K.
Adam Hadwin (DK $6,700) – Another Canadian who could benefit from the extra distance from elevation at this course, Hadwin is a textbook second-shot golfer who sometimes struggles with the flat stick. He does, however, offer plenty of safety for cash game builds in this price range.
More value golfers to consider: Ian Poulter, Alex Noren, Bubba Watson (GPP), Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Marc Leishman (GPP), Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Dylan Frittelli
Kevin Streelman (DK $6,500) – He’s solid T2G and excels in his approaches, and this might be just the venue for him to sneak in a Top 10 under the radar. Not a sexy pick, but worth a look in all formats.
Cameron Champ (DK $6,400) – Champ occasionally struggles with his putter but the complete game has rounded into better form in the past calendar year. He’s no longer just a bomb-and-gouge player with little to offer outside massive length, and he’ll have no problem tackling the longer holes here.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,300) – Griffin had a couple of Top 20s heading into the U.S. Open, and while he missed the cut last week, he made seven straight before that. With those concerns off the table, we can safely consider him as a viable punt option with Top 20 upside.
Additional punts: Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan
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Scottie Scheffler (DK $11,400) – Scheffler is probably the most talented golfer in the field, and he’s also the most expensive. The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year withdraw from the U.S. Open after testing positive for COVID-19 but closed out the season with three top fives (among six straight top 25 finishes) and is gearing up to become the seventh consecutive first-time winner of the tournament. He’s second in my overall model after Doc Redman.
Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Zalatoris, who finished in the top 20 in 13 consecutive starts, including two straight top-10s on the PGA TOUR, arrives at this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship as one of the hottest players in the world. He’s made the shift from leading the Korn Ferry Tour’s Regular Season Points list to PGA Tour events rather nicely, finishing eighth in last week’s event after an impressive T6 performance at the U.S. Open. Third in my model this week.
Sam Burns (DK $9,800) – A few weeks ago, Burns had a solid reputation as a longer hitter and birdie-making GPP play, but he’s vastly improved his T2G play and he’s 3-for-3 at CC of Jackson with a T3 in 2018 – the makings of a chalky, cash game option. He’s also in my Top 10, so I’ll have shares of him in all formats.
Doc Redman (DK $9,700) – We’ve seen Doc trending in the right direction with his overall game and ball-striking, attributes that will play well in Jackson. Redman also ranked 45th in birdie average on the PGA Tour in 2020 (fourth so far after just the Safeway Open in the 2021 season), and he’s my pick to break through and win this week.
Zach Johnson (DK $9,600) – One of the aforementioned “grizzled vets,” ZJ arrives in Mississippi sporting good form — and he finished T14 at this event last season. He’s nearly a lock for a made cut and has the short game to scoot up the leaderboard during the weekend.
Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Byeong-Hun An. Adam Long
Corey Conners (DK $9,200) – He should be a staple of cash game lineups and he stands to make a much larger impact — and could be a nifty GPP play — if his ownership stays down and he can get the flat stick going this week. Last year he missed the cut at this event, but the Canadian sensation finished second here in 2018.
Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,300) – With two straight top five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, he’ll be popular this week, but it’s obvious he likes this venue and this layout, so I’ll be on board in a few lineups.
Cam Davis (DK $8,100) – Davis might be a better cash play than GPP because he’s been treading water in the T15-T40 range, but that’s not a bad guy to use last in that range because he fares well in the mixed models.
Chesson Hadley (DK $7,800) – We’re no longer getting the standard Chesson Hadley discount on FanDuel, as his salary there ($9,500) is now the 22nd highest in the field, but he’s under $8K on DK, where he’s a boom-or-bust GPP play.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – Straka is turning into a much better ball striker, and while he’s known for his dynamic play, we’re seeing fewer bogeys and even more birdies these days from the
Tom Lewis (DK $7,700) – He’s not really great at anything, but he’s not particularly bad at anything either, so I’ll consider him for GPPs based on his form, aggressive style of play, and ability to make bunches of birdies.
Also consider: Brian Harman (cash), Dylan Frittelli (GPP), Chez Reavie, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Xinjun Zhang, Lucas Glover, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Denny McCarthy (GPP)
Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) – Along with the next guy, he’s my favorite GPP play under $7,500, and he’s fourth in my models – not for one particular area but his overall game. Gooch isn’t the flashiest play, but he’s got what it takes to become the seventh consecutive debut winner at this event.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – Another solid player who arrives with little fanfare, I’ll have shares of Tringale in GPPs of all sorts (including single-entry), and I believe in his ability to notch a win here given his weekend play at the 3M (63-66), when he finished third.
Cameron Percy (DK $7,200) – In 2020, Percy finished 22nd on Tour in SG: APP, has a pair of top-20 finishes in his last four starts at this event (among four Top 45s) and owns top-25s in his last three starts where he played all four rounds. He’s also lurking in the Top 20 in my model among some accomplished golfers.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,100) – We’re talking GPP only, guys. He’s missed three straight cuts and is a notorious terrible ball striker who gets by with otherworldly putting and veteran panache. Don’t get crazy.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900) – He could benefit from the bomb-and-gouge approach this week and tend to flourish on Bermuda greens. He’s the definition of a large-field GPP play, because he carries plenty of MC risk (he’s missed five of his last nine cuts).
Davis Riley (DK $6,800) – The two-time 2020 Korn Ferry Tour winner was popping in my models before I found out that he’s from Mississippi, and that he’s only made a few appearances on the PGA Tour – one of which was at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship (T39). He’s strolling down narrative street this week with a dangerous putter in his hands.
Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – If you need a cash game play under $7K, I’d say that Schenk – despite the images of inconsistency conjured his name – might just be your man. He’s made eight consecutive cuts, which is actually the longest streak among the not-so-terrible field.
Scott Stallings (DK $6,600) – It’s been a long time since he’s won on tour (2014), and his tee game leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s in the Top 40 on my models and he could squeeze his way into one or two large-field GPP lineups this week.
More value golfers to consider: Nick Taylor (GPP), Hudson Swafford, Richy Werenski, Kristoffer Ventura, Will Gordon (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Mark Hubbard
Chase Seifert (DK $6,400) – Seifert’s name came up last week in my Corales prep, and he finished T41 (right with the next guy) after a lackluster 72 on Sunday. With no major flaws in his game, if he can make the cut and close with as decent score, he could be a useful cash game cog at this bargain price.
Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,300) – The price is a joke given this guy’s upside (three Top 15s in 2020), and he’s sandwiched at 21 between Si Woo Kim and ZJ in my model. He’s definitely worth a look in GPPs.
Additional punts: Vaughn Taylor, Nick Watney (GPP), Martin Laird (GPP)
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Si Woo Kim (DK $10,800) – It’s a little curious to see Kim as the most expensive golfer in the field, especially since he’s lacking any real success at this venue, but he has been playing well lately (T13 at the PGA Championship and T3 at the Wyndham). I’m not sure I’ll be looking his way in large-field GPPs, but he’s 9-for-9 with four top 20s and makes for a cash game play if you’re seeking a cutmaker with some decent form.
Phil Mickelson (DK 10,600) – While it may be hilarious to see a Champions Tour golfer here in the top pricing tier, Phil is the second most expensive golfer and betting favorite for a reason: He loves California and he has some decent course history here. The wind is manageable this week and Phil can scramble if he misses the fairways and greens, making him a decent GPP play.
Brendan Steele (DK $10,000) – He won here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’ll be popular. While Steele struggled here in his last two appearances at the North Course, he did make the cut both times and is playing well (7-for-7 with three top 25s) since his poor showing at the Charles Schwab.
Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – I love the way Sergio still hits it off the tee and there’s still plenty of talent left in his tank. He putts extremely well on poa, so there’s not as much risk of a meltdown around the greens, and he’s got zero course history – the formula for a smashing GPP play.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,700) – For all the grief we give Grillo for his poor performance on the greens, he’s done better lately and can really string together some birdies if he’s competent with the flat stick. He’s also made four out of his last five cuts here and even won the event in 2015.
Also consider: Shane Lowry, Chez Reavie (cash), Joel Dahmen (GPP)
Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,300) – The best worst ball striker in the world, Sneds takes his circus show of missed cuts to the West Coast, and he even gets to putt on his preferred surface. He’s a fan of this venue, with 4-for-4 made cut and some impressive showings, including a playoff loss in 2018 and a pair of T17s. If his back is up to it, he show be okay this week.
Harold Varner (DK 9,100) – Varner is a happy-go-lucky PGA grinder who’s had a nice run in 2020, boasting some excellent stats along the way: 15th on TOUR in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 5-for-5 with three top 20s at the North Course and will be a staple on my GPP lineups.
Cam Davis (DK 8,900) – The talented Australian heads back to the North Course for his third appearance at Silverado – where he posted a T17 in his debut in 2018. I can’t speak to his ability to win here, but he’s probably a solid cash game play (4-for-5 with two top 20s since the 3M).
Bud Cauley (DK 8,600) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but Cauley is just the type of golfer I’m looking for in GPPs. He’s made four straight cuts here (including a seventh-place finish in 2017) and the long odds (50-1) mean his ownership won’t get too high.
Mark Hubbard (DK 8,100) – Hubbard has made some leaderboard appearances in 2020 and actually finished among the Top 50 in the FedExCup – a run that included a T13 at this venue in 2019. We know Hubbard can go low, and this is one place where his skills should translate.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,800) – The South Africanhasn’t played here since his 2015 debut, when he finished tied for sixth place. The odds of him winning aren’t great (60-1), but his health and form indicate he’s perfectly capable of a Top 10 finish and paying off his sub-$8K salary.
Jim Furyk (DK $7,700) – Another “senior” who still makes appearance son the regular tour, I’ll never count out Furyk, who finished T17 here last season with the likes of Snedeker and Varner, among others. What he lacks in driving distance he makes up for in excellent touch around the greens and solid approaches with his irons.
Also consider: Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Will Gordon (GPP), Lucas Glover, Luke List, Talor Gooch
Cameron Tringale DK $7,500) – A feast-or-famine GPP player who usually miss the cut or finishes among the Top 30, Tringale has been relatively consistent at this venue, with 4-out-of-5 made cut and three straight finished in the Top 50. He could be ready for a breakthrough here, and nobody will be on him.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,300) – I’ve seen plenty ofdiscussion about McNealy’s roots in Napa, as the Stanford alum actually made his pro PGA tour debut at Silverado in 2017. He’s made the cut each time here without a significant finish, but his form has been decent and he’s capable of a Top 10 finish – good enough for us at this price point.
Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – He’s a great guy and he finished with a Top 25 in his Safeway debut last season, so I still like Higgs for GPPs even if he’s not the best SG: APP golfer around. His odds to win are 80-1, which is kind of intriguing when you consider his SG: OTT numbers (35th on tour) and recent T11 (-14) at the Northern Trust.
Troy Merritt (DK $7,100) – He finished second to Richy Wrenski at the Barracuda Championship in nearby Truckee, CA and boasts some of the best Driving Acurcy numbers on tour. His elite putting numbers and impressive course history (T15 in 2016 & T4 in 2018) mean he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,000) – As a rookie in 2019-20, he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and led in average distance of putts made. Played his best out of the break with five top 25s across two tours.
Cameron Percy (DK $6,600) – He could be the best option under $7K considering his T7 finish here in 2019, and his game (along with almost all the Camerons, really) seems to fit this course.
Also consider: Charley Hoffman (GPP) Sepp Straka (GPP), Brice Garnett, Xinjun Zhang (GPP), J.B. Holmes (GPP) Chesson Hadley
Zac Blair (DK $6,400) – The options in this range are pretty awful, with almost no success among the golfers remaining, but Blair finished tied for 4th place here last year with Charles Howell III and Justin Thomas, so he’s at least capable of a Top 20. But please don’t go overboard on a guy who’s only made about half of the cuts in the past season, though.
Additional GPP punts: Aaron Baddeley, Brian Gay, Hank Lebioda
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Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.
Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.
Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele
Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.
Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.
Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.
Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.
Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English
Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.
Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.
Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.
Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.
Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.
More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,
Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.
Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.
Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith
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Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400) – He fizzled on Sunday but remains one of the most talented golfers in any field – especially when something’s on the line. I’d steer clear in cash games but I love him for GPPs.
Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – The course history here is bonkers (he’s won here and has a bunch of top fives), and Webb, who even named his daughter Wyndham – I’m not joking – easily makes for the best cash game play in the field.
Justin Rose (DK $9,900) – He’s a first-timer at this venue who made 20 birdies last week and finished in ninth place. With the weaker field I’m perfectly happy targeting him in GPPs and hoping for a Top 5 finish.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey
Harris English (DK $9,300) – I’m having a difficult time making lineups without English this week given his upside, his consistent play over the past year, and his current form. He checks all the boxes and makes for a fine play in all formats.
Brendan Todd (DK $8,900) – Todd is riding a birdie streak where he’s made at least 14 birdies over his four rounds in five straight tourneys. He had a missed cut at the RBC heritage the week before that, but it’s obvious he’s turned a corner and belongs in this pricing tier.
Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – The price (and lack of recent top 10s) will undoubtedly scare off a few folks, but Kim has made seven straight cuts, has won here (2016) and finished in fifth place at this event last year.
Sergio Garcia (DK $8,500) – I expect guys like Reavie and Kisner and Snedeker to be popular this week in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, but I really love Garcia’s upside here. He finished T5 at the RBC Heritage and people easily forget just how low he can go.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300) – Kisner is bound to be chalky this week given his performance at the Wyndham Championship and form, so my ownership will depend on just how popular he gets. There’s certainly plenty to like about his chances for a Top 10
J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – The 2019 winner absolutely dismantled this golf course last year, and people are getting too scared of his form (T75, T30, MC, MC, MC). He likes the course and finished T8 at the RBC Heritage in June, so I’m fine using him in GPPs.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,600) – Varner, who is one of my favorite plays this week and should be comfortable returning to the Carolinas, made the cut last week (T29) after being added as an alternate. I love his ball-striking this season and there’s no reason he can’t post a Top 15 at Sedgefield CC.
Also consider: Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth (GPP), Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, Christian Bezuidenhout, Maverick McNealy, Tom Lewis (GPP)
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – He’s a solid cash game play with plenty of favorable course history, and his play – while spotty over the past several weeks – does show some upside for GPPs as well.
Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Last week we had Henrik Stenson (MC) at $7,300, but now we get Norlander, who’s still massively underpriced with respect to his recent play.
Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – He missed the cut at the PGA but this course is more his wheelhouse. He’s 4-for-4 here since 2015 and I’m much more comfortable with him in this price point.
Bud Cauley (DK $7,200) – Cauley was a late addition to the PGA and he fared well. In this event, he actually has some Top 10 upside at a very low price, and his confidence has been improving over the past few weeks. He can make birdies in bunches, which is what we need at this low-scoring event.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,100) – I’m jumping right back on the Straka train after the made cut in a difficult field at the PGA championship. His T33 at the RBC Heritage tells me he could land a Top 25 finish here, which could work in single-entry GPP and for cash games.
Cam Davis (DK $7,000) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but for large-field GPPs you might need a low-owned gem like Davis, who has put together a T12 at the recent 3M Open, a T32 at last week’s Barracuda, and a 22nd place finish at the Wyndham last season.
Ryan Armour (DK $6,800) – Another streaky player I wouldn’t touch in cash games, Armour has had some success at this venue in the past (T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018 and T22 in 2019) and notched two straight top tens before missing three cuts in a row.
Brice Garnett (DK $6,700) – The veteran nabbed a sixth-place finish here last season and is a feast-or-famine GPP play who is playing some solid golf this year as well with four Top 30 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including a T17 at the RBC Heritage.
More value golfers to consider: Matthias Schwab, Danny Willett (GPP), Jim Furyk, Aaron Wise, Mark Hubbard (GPP)
Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – The putter holds him back, but his T2G stats are decent enough to warrant consideration this week. His last name makes me hungry for a lucrative GPP finish, not just a big sandwich.
Seamus Power (DK $6,400) – Another birdie-maker who misses some cuts but posts a lot of Top 35 finishes if he’s around for the weekend, Power has 60 birdies and an eagle in the three tourneys he made the cut among his last four events. Sign me up.
Fabian Gomez (DK $6,400) – Gomez was T3 at the Barracuda last week with 22 birdies over four days, highlighted by a closing round 63, and he finished T13 here in 2019 – good signs for a golfer under $6,500.
Brian Gay (DK $6,200) – He played poorly here last season but a T6 finish at the Wyndham in 2018 could bring back some decent memories. Gay is a longshot to have another Top 10, but if he can cut down on his bogeys, he stands a chance at a decent result for near minimum price.
Additional GPP punts: Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Peter Malnati
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Players Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD $12,200) – I picked Rory to win last week and he’s the betting favorite again (+650) despite his difficulties on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer invitational. He’s the defending champ here, and while there’s never been a golfer to win this event back-to-back, he’s in a class by himself. We can’t do a full fade but his putting issues (outside 10 feet) make me feel comfortable aligning with the field’s overall ownership levels in GPPs or coming slightly under that percentage.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – I will try to be overweight on Rahm this week because his form has been almost as impressive as McIlroy’s and he’s coming in fresh after a two-week layoff that kept him out of the carnage that has been the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Rahm checks all the boxes and trails only Rory and JT in my mixed model this week, so he’ll make over half of my GPP builds.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800, FD $11,900) – Like Rahm, JT hasn’t played since the WGC-Mexico, and that might not be a bad thing. He’s likely been working on his game, which suits this course well because of his great SG: Approach numbers, short game, and penchant for making birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks second on my mixed model, should see lower ownership than Rory, and has solid course history at the Players (5-for-5, two Top 15s).
Adam Scott (DK $9,600, FD $11,500) – Scott’s price is somewhat elevated on FanDuel, but it makes sense given his history at Sawgrass, which includes a Top 12 or better in each of his last four starts. A course horse if there ever was one, Scott manages his way around this course and should be in contention this weekend. It’ll be tough for him to close against such a stacked field, but he’s in my mix for GPPs.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,100, FD $11,300) – Bryson seemed more at ease on Sunday down the stretch at the API and should build on his strong finish with confidence at a course that he’s played better each of the two seasons he’s participated (T37 in his 2018 debut and T20 last year). I think he’s a great bet in all formats for his price and consistency and has a shot at winning the whole thing despite odds (+2700) that come in longer than Scott, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) – The Englishman plays well at Sawgrass and will avoid high ownership because of his MC at the API (and we can throw out a lot of the elite golfers’ finishes because of how brutal conditions were last week). He should be rested and ready to play well and string together a slew of birdies, capitalizing on solid all-around numbers.
Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,900, FD $10,800) – This could be the week that Rickie avoids the big number and finds his way into the Top 5 again. He won here in 2015 and has a spotty course history since, but I like him in GPPs. A risky play at $8,900, he does have winning upside if his putter continues to shine, and his ownership should land way under 10 percent in GPPs.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800, FD $10,900) – Nobody really dominates at the Players, but Matsuyama is 4-for-5 with all four of those made cuts landing him among the Top 25. He’s top five in several of our SG focus stats and makes for a fine under-the-radar play at an insanely affordable cost this week. I’ll try to double the field ownership on this ball-striker extraordinaire.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) – Some of the DK pricing this week is quite peculiar, and Reed at just $8,500 is an anomaly I’ll be taking advantage of regardless of field ownership (which isn’t currently projected to crack 15 percent). His status as a tour villain makes him a great candidate in GPPs, and his poor history here doesn’t discourage me as much as it would if he was priced way above $9K.
Tony Finau (DK $8,100, FD $10,200) – Finau sports solid SG: APP and general ball-striking numbers, and he’s improved each year he’s played TPC Sawgrass. He’s a sneaky off-the-radar GPP play who ranks sixth (right after an uber-popular Cantlay) in my mixed model. Finau makes a great wild-card component on GPP builds with a couple of studs and two other mid-tier cut-maker bargains.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) – I wish I could say that Kuchar fares well in my models, but he’s actually in the middle of the pack around the “cutline” at 64th (sandwiched between Russell Knox and Talor Gooch). Still, he’s a veteran golfer who’s more than the sum of his parts and there’s some decent course history here including a third-place finish in 2016 and a win back in 2012. The price is affordable and I think he’s a fine risk-reward GPP play based on his form (six Top 15s in his last nine tournaments).
Marc Leishman (DK $7,600, FD $9,700) – Leishman has historically struggled at the Players (two MC in his last three tries here and one Top 25 in the past five installments), hence his bargain price this week despite winning the Farmers in January and finishing second last week at the API to Tyrell Hatton. He falls just outside the Top 20 in my model and I’ll trust his ball-striking and SG: APP numbers to give him Top 15 upside come Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – Scheffler fared well in his debut at Bay Hill and will be making his first appearance at the Players this week. It’s not usually a course we like for virgin competitors, but Scheffler’s talent seems to keep him afloat and in contention, even in tougher fields. Don’t sleep on this young man and his ability to post low scores.
Also consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP only) Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,400 FD $9,000) – Hatton kept it together on Sunday and took home the red cardigan at the API — and the entire team at WinDaily Sports was high on him. As much as we’d like to cross him off our list given his poor history here and the traditional axiom of avoiding last week’s winner, he’s popping in my models as the No. 13 golfer this week. Last week must have been a confidence boost and I’ll be making room for him on GPPs lineups.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) – Fitzpatrick keeps getting closer and closer to breaking through with a win – he just needs to give himself more realistic chances at birdie. The short game is remarkably consistent and there’s plenty of things to like about his game tee-to-green and his last two finishes (T46, T41) here at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got Top 25 upside at an affordable price this week, so I can’t fade him.
Daniel Berger (DK $7,200, FD $9,400) – Berger has three straight disappointing finishes here (all made cuts, though) and a Top 10 in 2016. He’s among the Top 20 in my model this week and his form is excellent (T4, T5, T9 in his last three events with his last MC coming at the Houston Open in October). I love his upside and bargain price for all formats.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,300, FD $9,500) – Another veteran golfer who manages his way around this challenging TPC layout, Poulter takes advantage of scoring opportunities when he can. He’s ground his way to Top 40 finishes in difficult conditions the past two weeks, and he’s experienced enough here to avoid big numbers, make the cut (5-for-5 and finish on the leaderboard (T2 in 2017).
Abraham Ancer (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Ancer finished T12 here in his 2019 debut and is a fine all-around fit based on his strengths from tee to green. His worst numbers are around and on the green, so he’s a risky play best reserved for GPPs. I have a couple of better plays in mind, but I’ll have some shares.
Joel Dahmen (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – Speaking of GPP-only golfers whose short game is their main weakness, Dahmen is almost a direct analog for Ancer in his course history (also finished T12 in his debut last year) and focus stats (he’s 52nd in my model while Ancer is 53rd). He’s actually a safer play than Ancer based on his current form (T5, T5, and T14 in his last three starts) and a better bargain on both sites.
Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600, FD $7,300) – Tringale hasn’t played the Players since 2017, but he’s 3-for-3 here and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events. He fares incredibly well (no. 23) in my mixed model and is a solid value play to round out your builds in almost any format.
Brian Harman (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – There’s not a lot of overwhelming upside under $6,500 this week, but Harman is on my shortlist of punts for his course history (Top 10s in two of his last five at Sawgrass) and cut-making ability. He also ranks 27th in my model, so his all-around ball striking and short game abilities are well suited for this track.
Bud Cauley (DK $6,200, FD $7,600) – Cauley’s weaknesses lie in his poor SG: OTT numbers and his pedestrian BoB% numbers, but at these prices and considering his recent stretch of made cuts, I’ll hang on the positive numbers that stick out: He’s 34thin the field for SG: APP and 13th in SG: ARG.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,100, FD $7,500) – I’m taking a big risk with Munoz after his brutal MC last week (he made a 7 on the Par 5 6th hole, his 15th of the day, to put him at +5 – while the cut landed at +3). He’s also making his debut this week, but my models love him (18th overall in the field), so I’ll be using him in two or three out of 20 GPP entries.
More value golfers for GPPs: Matt Wallace, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas, Jim Furyk, Talor Gooch, Adam Long, Kevin Tway
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Paul Casey (DK $10,500, FD $11,700) – We highlightedsome of the focus stats that help folks win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am,but making the cut and winning here requires a solid mental approach aided byan affable nature. Casey has the game to fit these courses and solid historyhere (second place in 2019, T8 in 2018) but is also a nice dude – which helpswhen you’re playing alongside so many amateurs. As always, the key to hissuccess will be his short game.
Jason Day (DK $10,300, FD $11,500) – Continuing in the nice guy category, Day has five straight Top 15s here with four of those finishes as Top 5s. He really wants to win here, and he’s got the attitude and game to make it happen. I have some concerns about his ailing back, and so should the majority of the DFS world, so we could see lower ownership than what you’d expect from a perennial contender like Day.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,700, FD $11,000) – Fitzpatrick might see low ownership in GPPs with his price among the bigger names, and I’d probably stay away in cash games since he can have some stinkers – but the 54-hole cut makes him one of my top choices as he’s been known to get hot and put together some very low rounds. I love his attitude and his ability to put bad rounds behind him, which should keep him in the mix at the AT&T this week.
Graeme McDowell (DK $9,200, FD $10,400) – He won last week in Saudi Arabia, and while I’m not going overboard on Dustin Johnson shares, playing G-Mac after a long flight doesn’t scare me as much and it does with DJ. The Portrush, Northern Ireland native has some history at Pebble Beach and he’s one of golf’s best ambassadors. Length is not an issue on these tracks, so deploy him in GPPs in the hopes that he gets hot with the flat stick.
Also consider: DustinJohnson, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, VictorHovland
Daniel Berger (DK $8,900, FD $10,300) – Berger is coming off a Top 10 at the WMPO and he finished with a T10 in his only appearance here in 2015. He’s expensive but a really good bet for a Top 20 finish.
Russell Knox (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – With no major holes in his game, Knox is a good fit for these courses and the format – though we’ll need at least one round where his putter gets hot for him to get in the Top 5.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500, FD $10,100) – Kisner’s history here is jumbled – with a couple missed cuts, a T28 last year and a Top 10 in 2017. But he’s an excellent ball striker, is quite strong on poa annua greens and registers inside the Top 20 on Par 4 efficiency 350-400. The MC at the Amex could keep his ownership low in GPPs.
Scott Piercy (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – I’m always interested in Piercy for the West Coast swing, and he’s trending up (55-20-10) the past three years here. He finished T6 last week and is a solid bet to make the 54-hole cut – even if he fades a bit on Sunday as he tends to do.
Scott Stallings (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – Stallings loves the event (14-7-3 from 2017-19) and his last missed cut was at the Houston Open. He’s not without risk, but he’s popping on all my models and he excels in SG: Approach and SG: ARG.
Kevin Streelman (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Streelman is another high-risk golfer and he’s really been struggling lately. Fortunately for him, he’s playing an event that has seen him finish 17-14-6-7 over the past four years, notching Top 10s in each of the past two tries. He’ll be in my mix of GPP plays.
Also consider: Sung Kang, Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin, Vaughn Taylor, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk
Brian Gay (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s way too cheap for his course history, and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays on shorter courses. He also shows up in my SG models (SG and putting) and his faults (SG: Off the Tee) shouldn’t hurt him here.
Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – Baddeley showed up in my models for the focus stats and I doubt anybody will be on him this week. A worthy golfer to toss into GPPs in one of the final slots.
Michael Thompson (DK $6,700, FD $8,200) – I like that he finished T10 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,500, FD $7,700) – Lebioda can make a bunch of birdies and is a decent ball-striker, but he’s essentially a feast-or-famine finisher that cracks the Top 25 or misses the cut. At this price, that kind of variance should be expected.
Si Woo Kim (DK $6,400, FD $7,500) – Kim finished T4 here last year alongside Jason Day and has been fighting back issues the past few weeks just like the Australian. If you’re looking for golfers under $6,500, you need to take some chances.
Seamus Power (DK $6,400, FD $7,000) – Speaking of taking chances, Power will see sub 2% ownership but did make the cut here in 2017, finishing 39th. He’s a true longshot to finish among the Top 25, so I’d only roll him out in multi-entry GPP at like 5-10 percent at most.
More value golfers forGPPs: Steve Stricker, Ted Potter, Luke Donald, Tyler DuncanD.J. Trahan, Padraig Harrington, Chris Stroud
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