Tag:

Scottie Scheffler

PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Players Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full, stacked tournament field of 144 golfers – 110 being PGA Tour winners
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: TPC Sawgrass
7,189 yards, Par 72 – Pete Dye design
Small and fast TifEagle Bermuda greens
Mix of hole types (short and long)
Holes 17 and 18 are very challenging – bogeys and doubles are common
Defending champ: Rory McIlroy (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Off the Tee; Birdie or Better%; SG: Putting; SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); SG: Ball Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD $12,200) – I picked Rory to win last week and he’s the betting favorite again (+650) despite his difficulties on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer invitational. He’s the defending champ here, and while there’s never been a golfer to win this event back-to-back, he’s in a class by himself. We can’t do a full fade but his putting issues (outside 10 feet) make me feel comfortable aligning with the field’s overall ownership levels in GPPs or coming slightly under that percentage.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – I will try to be overweight on Rahm this week because his form has been almost as impressive as McIlroy’s and he’s coming in fresh after a two-week layoff that kept him out of the carnage that has been the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Rahm checks all the boxes and trails only Rory and JT in my mixed model this week, so he’ll make over half of my GPP builds.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800, FD $11,900) – Like Rahm, JT hasn’t played since the WGC-Mexico, and that might not be a bad thing. He’s likely been working on his game, which suits this course well because of his great SG: Approach numbers, short game, and penchant for making birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks second on my mixed model, should see lower ownership than Rory, and has solid course history at the Players (5-for-5, two Top 15s).

Adam Scott (DK $9,600, FD $11,500) – Scott’s price is somewhat elevated on FanDuel, but it makes sense given his history at Sawgrass, which includes a Top 12 or better in each of his last four starts. A course horse if there ever was one, Scott manages his way around this course and should be in contention this weekend. It’ll be tough for him to close against such a stacked field, but he’s in my mix for GPPs.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,100, FD $11,300) – Bryson seemed more at ease on Sunday down the stretch at the API and should build on his strong finish with confidence at a course that he’s played better each of the two seasons he’s participated (T37 in his 2018 debut and T20 last year). I think he’s a great bet in all formats for his price and consistency and has a shot at winning the whole thing despite odds (+2700) that come in longer than Scott, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) – The Englishman plays well at Sawgrass and will avoid high ownership because of his MC at the API (and we can throw out a lot of the elite golfers’ finishes because of how brutal conditions were last week). He should be rested and ready to play well and string together a slew of birdies, capitalizing on solid all-around numbers.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson

Rory, JT and Rahm make up the top three available options based on the focus stat categories.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600to $8,900):

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,900, FD $10,800) – This could be the week that Rickie avoids the big number and finds his way into the Top 5 again. He won here in 2015 and has a spotty course history since, but I like him in GPPs. A risky play at $8,900, he does have winning upside if his putter continues to shine, and his ownership should land way under 10 percent in GPPs.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800, FD $10,900) – Nobody really dominates at the Players, but Matsuyama is 4-for-5 with all four of those made cuts landing him among the Top 25. He’s top five in several of our SG focus stats and makes for a fine under-the-radar play at an insanely affordable cost this week. I’ll try to double the field ownership on this ball-striker extraordinaire.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) – Some of the DK pricing this week is quite peculiar, and Reed at just $8,500 is an anomaly I’ll be taking advantage of regardless of field ownership (which isn’t currently projected to crack 15 percent). His status as a tour villain makes him a great candidate in GPPs, and his poor history here doesn’t discourage me as much as it would if he was priced way above $9K.

Tony Finau (DK $8,100, FD $10,200) – Finau sports solid SG: APP and general ball-striking numbers, and he’s improved each year he’s played TPC Sawgrass. He’s a sneaky off-the-radar GPP play who ranks sixth (right after an uber-popular Cantlay) in my mixed model. Finau makes a great wild-card component on GPP builds with a couple of studs and two other mid-tier cut-maker bargains.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) – I wish I could say that Kuchar fares well in my models, but he’s actually in the middle of the pack around the “cutline” at 64th (sandwiched between Russell Knox and Talor Gooch). Still, he’s a veteran golfer who’s more than the sum of his parts and there’s some decent course history here including a third-place finish in 2016 and a win back in 2012. The price is affordable and I think he’s a fine risk-reward GPP play based on his form (six Top 15s in his last nine tournaments).

Marc Leishman (DK $7,600, FD $9,700) – Leishman has historically struggled at the Players (two MC in his last three tries here and one Top 25 in the past five installments), hence his bargain price this week despite winning the Farmers in January and finishing second last week at the API to Tyrell Hatton. He falls just outside the Top 20 in my model and I’ll trust his ball-striking and SG: APP numbers to give him Top 15 upside come Sunday.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – Scheffler fared well in his debut at Bay Hill and will be making his first appearance at the Players this week. It’s not usually a course we like for virgin competitors, but Scheffler’s talent seems to keep him afloat and in contention, even in tougher fields. Don’t sleep on this young man and his ability to post low scores.

Also consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP only) Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An

Here we find Poulter, Tringale Cauley, and some other value plays among stars like Fleetwood and Fowler.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500and under):

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,400 FD $9,000) – Hatton kept it together on Sunday and took home the red cardigan at the API — and the entire team at WinDaily Sports was high on him. As much as we’d like to cross him off our list given his poor history here and the traditional axiom of avoiding last week’s winner, he’s popping in my models as the No. 13 golfer this week. Last week must have been a confidence boost and I’ll be making room for him on GPPs lineups.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) – Fitzpatrick keeps getting closer and closer to breaking through with a win – he just needs to give himself more realistic chances at birdie. The short game is remarkably consistent and there’s plenty of things to like about his game tee-to-green and his last two finishes (T46, T41) here at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got Top 25 upside at an affordable price this week, so I can’t fade him.

Daniel Berger (DK $7,200, FD $9,400) – Berger has three straight disappointing finishes here (all made cuts, though) and a Top 10 in 2016. He’s among the Top 20 in my model this week and his form is excellent (T4, T5, T9 in his last three events with his last MC coming at the Houston Open in October). I love his upside and bargain price for all formats.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,300, FD $9,500) – Another veteran golfer who manages his way around this challenging TPC layout, Poulter takes advantage of scoring opportunities when he can. He’s ground his way to Top 40 finishes in difficult conditions the past two weeks, and he’s experienced enough here to avoid big numbers, make the cut (5-for-5 and finish on the leaderboard (T2 in 2017).

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Ancer finished T12 here in his 2019 debut and is a fine all-around fit based on his strengths from tee to green. His worst numbers are around and on the green, so he’s a risky play best reserved for GPPs. I have a couple of better plays in mind, but I’ll have some shares.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – Speaking of GPP-only golfers whose short game is their main weakness, Dahmen is almost a direct analog for Ancer in his course history (also finished T12 in his debut last year) and focus stats (he’s 52nd in my model while Ancer is 53rd). He’s actually a safer play than Ancer based on his current form (T5, T5, and T14 in his last three starts) and a better bargain on both sites.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600, FD $7,300) – Tringale hasn’t played the Players since 2017, but he’s 3-for-3 here and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events. He fares incredibly well (no. 23) in my mixed model and is a solid value play to round out your builds in almost any format.

Brian Harman (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – There’s not a lot of overwhelming upside under $6,500 this week, but Harman is on my shortlist of punts for his course history (Top 10s in two of his last five at Sawgrass) and cut-making ability. He also ranks 27th in my model, so his all-around ball striking and short game abilities are well suited for this track.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,200, FD $7,600) – Cauley’s weaknesses lie in his poor SG: OTT numbers and his pedestrian BoB% numbers, but at these prices and considering his recent stretch of made cuts, I’ll hang on the positive numbers that stick out: He’s 34thin the field for SG: APP and 13th in SG: ARG.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,100, FD $7,500) – I’m taking a big risk with Munoz after his brutal MC last week (he made a 7 on the Par 5 6th hole, his 15th of the day, to put him at +5 – while the cut landed at +3). He’s also making his debut this week, but my models love him (18th overall in the field), so I’ll be using him in two or three out of 20 GPP entries.

More value golfers for GPPs: Matt Wallace, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas, Jim Furyk, Talor Gooch, Adam Long, Kevin Tway

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invite-only, stacked tournament field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: Bay Hill
7,454 yards, Par 72 – Dick Wilson design w/Arnold Palmer redesign
TifEagle Bermuda greens (fast) and Celebration Bermuda fairways
Plenty of water (in play on half the holes)
Much easier than PGA National (Three of last five winners at -17 or better)
Defending champ: Francesco Molinari (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 efficiency (450-500), Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); Proximity (200+; Opportunities Gained; Birdie or Better%; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka should be solid PGA DFS pick this week based on the player efficiencies that come into play at Bay Hill.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.

Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.

Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter

Just because they are not in the Top 25 on my mixed model, does not mean they won’t fare well in the API. This 26-50 range has plenty of golfers to target.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.

Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman

Once we get outside the Top 50, were looking at GPP-only plays with some flaws in their game.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Mexico Championship

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and helping you find some winning teams!

The PGA DFS picks this week focus on the more expensive golfers, and many of my value picks are European tour regulars who may prefer this layout and its surfaces to the Americans.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 70 golfers
No cut event
The course: Club de Golf Chapultepec (in Naucalpan, just outside Mexico City)
7,330 yards, Par 71, but elevation (7,600 feet) makes it much shorter
Poa annua greens, more Kikuyu
Parkland style: Tree-lined fairways favored by European golfers
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (won in 2017 & 2019)
Course comp: Crans-sur-Sierre Golf-Club in Switzerland (Omega Masters)
Focus Stat Categories include Strokes Gained: Approach; Opportunities Gained; Bogey Avoidance; Birdie or Better %; Proximity from 125-150, Par 4s: Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,200) – He’s almost guaranteed a Top 10 finish this week, all things considered. He’ll have a huge advantage off the tee and putting is less important on these surfaces. Rory is my pick to win this week and I’ll be around 40-50% again in GPPs.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – If Rory is my 1A favorite, DJ is my 1B. Anything shy of a Top 3 finish will likely hurt us if Rory ends up winning (because of the much tougher pricing this week). Johnson is guaranteed four rounds here barring some type of injury, and his talent and ball-striking should shine through.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,600, FD $11,800) – “Rahmbo” finished third here in 2017 and could see lower ownership than the other high-priced studs. T17 last week and no TV coverage of his Sunday round could affect recency bias and make him a great GPP choice.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – He finished T23 after carding a 69 on Sunday in the Genesis, but really struggled with his putter – a common theme. If we toss that out and get a little better flat stick performance from him, he’s a great bet for the Top 5.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – He’s a GPP-only and he didn’t fare too well here last season. If he’s made the necessary math adjustments and can putt a little better this week, we could see the beefier Bryson fare quite well.

Also consider: JustinThomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – No more discounts this week for guys like Louis – who would have come in well under $8K. He’s a perfect GPP play who’s improved each time he’s played here.

Paul Casey, (DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – I like him for one of the same reasons as Oosthuizen (continued improvement in course history), and he’s putted well here in the past. He’s a ball-striking madman and could get popular.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,600, FD $10,300) – Three straight Top 15s here with Top 10s in his past two. If his putter gets hot, we could see a breakthrough weekend and a pretty good return on our investment.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300, FD $10,100) – The biggest question mark with Gary is SG: Approach, which is, unfortunately, an important focus stat this week. He’s a GPP play for me on lineups where I’m looking for balance and a slew of Top 15 guys with upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($8,000, FD $9,600) – The price increase wasn’t too bad (+ $300 on DK), and I doubt we’ll see ownership eclipse 10% this week. I’m still waiting for his breakout performance of 2020, and this could be the week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – RCB suits our profile here and finished third in 2018 when he posted four rounds in the 60s (good for a DK bonus). His form is solid enough (T17 last week at Riviera) and another Euro golfer we have to consider.

Also consider: Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Coming off two MCs at the European Tour’s desert venues, Wiesberger will see much lower ownership than the 23rd ranked player in the world (who’s won three times in the last year) on a course that fits him like a golf glove. And his pricing on both sits is very affordable.

Tyrell Hatton (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Hatton has played well here but it’s his first start of 2020 following wrist surgery. Let’s hope for a limited number of rough lies than a be complicated by the spongy and thick Kikuyu.

Kurt Kitayama (DK ($7,200, FD $8,800) – Kitayama finished T18 at Pebble Beach after a T6 finish in the desert in Dubai. He’s a world traveler with plenty of experience on different surfaces, so I think his frustration level could be lower than others in the field.

Kevin Kisner (DK ($7,200, FD $9,400) – He could easily become frustrated with the putting surfaces, as he much prefers Bermuda – but Kisner is a gamer with three straight Top 30s at this event (his best finish here was 11th in 2017).

Charles Howell III (DK ($7,100, FD $9,500) – Finished 14th here in his tournament debut last season and has the length and ball-striking prowess to post another solid Top 20, but I’m not going overboard like folks did last week when he disappointed and finished T59.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – It’s hard to say how he’ll adjust to the elevation and perform in his debut, but he’s a good fit, and he’s talented enough to shine in his WGC debut.

Lee Westwood (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s really turned his career around and has played here a couple of times (28th in 2017, 33rd in 2019). Won in January at the Abu Dhabi HSBC over Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez – three other golfers I’ll have shares of this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – He’s got a shot at a Top 20 finish, and for this price, I’ll have some exposure in GPPs. It was encouraging to see him make the cut and finish among the Top 40 last week in his Genesis debut.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,600, FD $8,200) – I don’t have much interest in the golfers under $7K this week, but I’ll have some exposure to EVR again after he missed the cut last week.

More value golfers forGPPs: Matt Wallace, Danny Willett, Christian Bezuidenhout,Carlos Ortiz, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jorge Campillo

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for over...

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 132 golfers
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 yards
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
The cut has been between Even Par and +2 the past six years
Medium course difficulty (24/48 in 2019)
Bermuda greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4s: 450-500, SG: Around the Green, Approach, Proximity to Hole, SG: Putting, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $12,100) – Rahm went to Arizona State and just finished second at Torrey Pines. He’s 4-for-4 at the event and his worst finish is a T16. He’s the betting favorite at 6-1, a lock-in cash game and I’ll have him in about 40-50 percent of my GPPs.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,900) – Always in the mix, Thomaslost some momentum when he missed the cut at the Sony, but I’m willing to throwthat performance out because of the brutal conditions. He’s also had somestruggles at this event, so maybe we get a break on his ownership? His eliteball-striking makes him a fine GPP play.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,500, FD $11,500) – Fowler is the defendingchamp and has finished 1-11-4-2 in his last four tries. He should contend againif he can right the ship after his MC in San Diego and get his putter going.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,100, FD $11,300) – Matsuyama has won here twice (2016 and 2017), finishing 15^th here last season. He checks all the boxes in my models and is actually a bit of a bargain considering his course history.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – We know how good his putter is, and with the form decent and 4/4 on his last four cuts here, he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

Branden Grace (DK $8,700, FD $10,200) – In his first appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he finished solo second place, and there are no major weaknesses that should have him in big trouble here. A worthy play in all formats.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) – Hovland checks all the boxes except around the green, and I think folks have forgotten about him a bit. He’s long enough and straight enough off the tee to employ either strategy, and he ranks well in SG: Approach. As you can see in the graphic below, he’s showing up in the models put together by Win Daily’s Patrick Waters too. I’ll have heavy GPP ownership this week.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) –.Another player who’s popping on my models, Moore’s yet to break through with a Top 10 here but is priced well and is an excellent ball striker. A risk-reward GPP mid-range value play.

Byeong Hun An (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – An is similar to Moore in that he’s a good ball striker who gets held back by his putter. This is a good venue to help rectify that and he’s 3-for-3 here so far.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) – Despite missing the cut here last season, Steele loves the venue and has three Top 20 finishes, including a solo third in 2018.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Chez Reavie, Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – A proven veteran with solid course history and an affordable price tag.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – I’m a Grillo fan and he’s 4-for-4 here. If he can get the putter blazing, who knows?

Martin Laird (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Laird will see pretty high ownership because of his amazing course history, so we might steer clear in large-field GPPs to differentiate.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,900, FD $8,000) – He’s played well here the last two years with a 5th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finishes in 2019, and he’s showing up in my models along with an affordable price.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – When Stuard goes flag hunting, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upsides. He’s super-cheap and looks like a good fit with the course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Beau Hossler, Max Homa, DennyMcCarthy, Danny Lee, Brian Gay, Chris Kirk

Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re finding you some prime selections for the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico, especially when it comes to winning GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGADFS Course Notes:

Course: El Camaleón Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico (Par: 71 – Yardage: 6,987 – Grass: Seashore Paspalum)
Greg Norman designed this fascinating semi-coastal layout, which features three different ecosystems, including some thicket and jungle in the upper areas, and more swampy wetlands with minimal undulation on the Mexican-Caribbean coastline
Cut: The field is at 132 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend.
The winning score is typically in the minus-17-to-22 range
Previous winners: Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, John Huh, Mark Wilson, Brian Gay, and Fred Funk.
Higher winds could always complicate play and prep, but the course plays to a field average of roughly 70.2 (-0.8 RTP) on the par-71 layout.
Focus Stat Categories are Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – I doubt El Tucan will be on his bag this year, but Kuchar seems to be ready to defend his title and take his lumps on social media because of last year’s controversy. It’s his season debut, but he’s one of the favorites and will make plenty of my builds.

Tony Finau (DK $10,600, FD $11,500) – Finau is an excellent driver of the golf ball, even with that abbreviated backswing, but sometimes struggles with accuracy – so this is a GPP pick only. If he can keep it in play and make some putts, there’s no reason he can’t win.

Charles Howell, III (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) – Along and accurate hitter, Howell checks all the boxes for this course and iscoming here in decent form. He’s 8-for-10 making the cut at Mayakoba with threetop-10s and another four top-20s and is an impressive 5-for-5 this season withtwo top-10s and another top-20. Fine for both cash and GPP despite the MC lasttime around here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Ancer is Mexico’s top golf talent, and he would love for this to be his first career win. The driving accuracy is there, and his form is solid, as he placed T4 in his WGC-HSBC Champions debut.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Scheffler is a top talent who led after an opening 62 before finishing T3 in Bermuda. He’s an excellent ball-striker who hits solid approaches, but I won’t be 100 percent as he’s making his El Camaleón debut.

LantoGriffin (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)– He’s thecurrent FedEx Cup points leader, and he’s finished no worse than a pair of T18sthis season. I worry a bit about his accuracy off the tee and the better fieldshe’ll be encountering, but he’s a GPP play you shouldn’t fade completely.

Also consider: Victor Hovland, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, AaronWise, Russell Knox

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900, FD$10,500) – Myfriends get on my case for playing him too much in the majors, but he’s a popularDFS target for his elite ball-striking. He’s got some good course history withfinishes of T10, T9, and solo 15th in three tries at El Camaleón. Moreof a GPP play, though he could get chalky on DK.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) – The form hasn’t been great, but he’s 4-for-4 here with a 4th and a 14th, so I’m buying his skillset of accuracy and precision over power and loading up in GPPs. Plus, he’s a personal favorite and a cool who likes to tell gambling stories about Phil.

Pat Perez (DK $8,100, FD $9,600)– Helikes the course, as one of his three career wins came here when he triumphed in2016 by two strokes over Gary Woodland at 21-under, featuring a third-round 62.Mix in three other top 20s at El Camaleón (in seven total starts). A recent solo thirdat the Shriners and an affinity for Paspalum (he won at TPC Kuala Lumpur whenit was Paspalum), and you’ve got yourself an option.

Brian Gay (DK $7,900, FD $9,400) – He was excellent in Bermuda with a T3 – his third top 25 of the new season – and this is where he had his first win in 2008. Overall, he’s 9-for-9 here with four top-25s, and I just can’t fade the guy despite him being a chalky pick.

Brice Garnett (DK $7,600, FD$9,300) – The veteran ballstriker has a great record here (he’s 4-for-4 since 2014 with three top 10s, aT25 and a scoring average of 67.81) and he’s won on Paspalum at the CoralesPuntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018. I like the discount on DK andwill be using him in a handful of builds.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) – The exciting young rookie got close at Bermuda, sharing the 36-hole lead and sitting by himself at the top of the 54-hole before finishing solo second, possibly because of too much napping. There’s a lot of reasons to roster him this week, his affinity for coastal tracks coming in along with solid form and upside.

Also consider: Scott Piercy, Harold Varner III,Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Ryan Armour (DK $7,200, FD $8,800) – A short hitter but one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, Armour hits fairways and finished solo 4th as a rookie here in 2007. Since then, he’s played well here, with a T21 last year, and he arrives in good form with a T23 in Houston and a T8 in Bermuda. The price is fair and Armour is a great course fit for cash or GPP.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,700, FD $8,300) – Despite his solid course history, I don’t know if Spaun will be super popular this week because he usually isn’t very highly owned. In his first appearance as a rookie in 2016, he finished T28, and he’s added a T14 and a T3 since them posting a scoring average over his 12 rounds of 67.75. His form is poor, but this course can be an elixir for the wayward.

Calum Hill (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – There’s plenty tolike about this young Scottish lad, who finished 2nd in the Road to Mallorcastandings that rank Euro Tour hopefuls. The 25-year-old’s game worked out well onthe Euro Tour with three top 30s in each of his last three starts. The pricemakes him a solid value option in a week without too many of them.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,400, FD $9,200) – Kim is 3-for-3 here with a T17 in 2015, a third place in 2017, and T26 (with Chez Reavie) last season. He hasn’t flashed much brilliance this season, but I like this layout as a springboard to some better form.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Todd won at Bermuda and has an excellent record here. He’ll be chalky value pick because of his recent win, but I’ll have some shares given his penchant for low rounds. Let’s just hope he makes the cut!

Sepp Straka (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – I’ve fared well using Straka in DFS and his price remains relatively low. He’s making his debut at his event, but that hasn’t stopped folks before. Straka is accurate off the tee and has strong SG: T2G numbers, so I’ll give him a look at this price point.

More value golfers for GPPs: Patton Kizzire, Brian Stuard,Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Brown, C.T. Pan

The PGA DFS Fades:

Danny Lee (DK $8,300, FD $9,800) – Lee could popular this week since he finished second here last year and nabbed a second-place finish at the CJ CUP, so I’m not going to castigate DFS fans who check out game logs and course history – heck, I do it myself. I may have one or two shares of the Korean-born New Zealander in GPPs, but I’ll definitely be underweight on the field; Lee is an inconsistent [player who misses a lot of cuts and missed cut equity says that if he’s chalky, it might help to fade him.

Cameron Champ (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – An incredibly long hitter but one who’s not particularly accurate off the tee, his game isn’t suited well for the layout, and the price is still too high for me to use. Sorry, Champ.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Billy Horschel (DK $10,200, FD$11,300) – “He performs better as asleeper than a top play, and when you really need him to play well,he lets you down.” – Mark “Spades”Spada

Spades is really mellowing out with his rhetoric! I expected a lot of nasty remarks, but I agree with what he’s saying. Add in the fact that Billy Ho is the fifth most expensive player in the field on both sites and listed as No. 1 on the PGA Tour’s power rankings this week, and we have a fade I can get behind! I’ve had Horschel burn me multiple times when he’s getting lots of chalky action, and when I have no shares, he seems to explode. I’ll commit to exactly ONE lineup with Horschel to stay underweight and that’ll be it.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Abraham Ancer ($9,200)

Scottie Scheffler($9,100)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Chez Reavie($8,500)

Si Woo Kim($7,400)

Sepp Straka($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Jason Day ($11,000)

Lanto Griffin($9,000)

Brian Gay($7,900)

Harry Higgs($7,500)

Brendan Todd($7,200)

Ryan Armour($7,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Charles HowellIII ($9,600)

Aaron Wise ($9,400)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Harold VarnerIII ($7,900)

Xinjun Zhang($7,300)

Calum Hill($6,600)

Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

5 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Scottie Scheffler

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

PGADFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFS Fades:

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.