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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 3)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s the Monday funday and today we have a shortened slate.  We have only a 6-game slate of MLB DFS tonight.  This slate has some solid options up top in terms of pitching.  We also have some solid spots for bats.  One question that will be burning for everyone will be what to do with Domingo German as he’s coming off MLB’s 24th perfect game.  Prior to that, he had been awful. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Angels

The matchup isn’t the greatest for Blake Snell tonight as he’s facing the best hitter the game has probably ever seen.  But you have to respect what he’s done over the last 30+ days.  Over his last 31 innings of work, Blake Snell has a 47% strike-out rate.  Think about that for a second.  He’s striking out pretty darn close to 50% of the batters that he’s facing.  He has 4 consecutive starts with double-digit k’s and he hasn’t been under 6 strikeouts since all the way back on 5/19. 

He’s also been over 20 DK points in 6 consecutive starts.  He’s also only $8.6k tonight on DK.  As long as he gives Shohei Ohtani the Barry Bonds treatment today, he should be able to navigate this lineup.  He definitely comes with some risk tonight, but he also comes with massive upside at this price. 

Joe Ryan vs. Kansas City Royals

I’m not really sold on the talents of Joe Ryan, but he has had some massive games this season and gets a matchup tonight vs. a Royals team in which he very well could have a massive game again.  Ryan is coming off a poor outing against the Atlanta Braves but we’ll cut him some slack because well, it’s the Braves and they have by far the best lineup in the game of baseball right now. 

Prior to that, Ryan had a 45-point outing against a decent Red Sox lineup.  Ryan has been the model of inconsistency this season and because of that, he makes for a great GPP play.  He has real upside tonight against this bad Royals team.  Against righties this season, the Royals have a nearly 25% k rate and just a .659 OPS.  Ryan should be able to have an above-average game vs. a below-average lineup. 

Other pitchers I’m going to have my eye on tonight will be Bryan Woo vs. the Giants and Tyler Wells vs. the Yankees.  The Mets starters just walked through the Giants and Woo can definitely do the same vs. them.  The Yankees are a watered-down lineup these days and Wells has been really solid.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jaime Barria

The disappointing San Diego Padres get the matchup of a lifetime tonight against Jaime Barrie.  Well, maybe not the matchup of a lifetime, but they do get a good one.  Barria has struggled somewhat over the last month.  Over his last 15 innings of work. Barria has pitched to an ERA of 5.87.  His xFIP is even higher at 6.48.  He’s been letting up homers at an epic pace as he’s allowed 5 in those 15 innings.  That’s just not good. 

He’s also giving up way too many barrels.  11 in 15 innings if horrendous.  Should he continue to make mistakes, this Padres lineup should be able to smack him around and put up a healthy amount of runs.  I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one.  Both sides have some pros and cons.  Righties have a much higher ISO vs. Barrie while lefties have a much higher wOBA. 

The 3 premier plays in this lineup are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto.  Each of them warrants a spot in your MLB DFS lineups.  All 3 have homer potential every single AB and should do well in this matchup.  After those 3, I’m going to look to prioritize getting Ha-seong Kim and Trent Grisham into my lineups. 

The 2 of them have actually been the hotter hitters in this lineup of late.  Over the past week, the 2 of them each have an OPS of at least 1.000.  Kim is 7 for his last 21 with 2 homers and a 95% contact rate.  If he cracks the lineup tonight, he’s a solid play for us.  After the 5 guys I’ve already mentioned, Jake Cronenworth and Gary Sanchez would also make solid plays

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German

Up until his perfect game against the hapless Oakland Athletics, German had been pitching poorly.  There had actually been talk about DFA’ing him.  Even with the perfect game, German still has a 5.67 ERA over the last month and a 4.26 xFIP.  The perfect game was pure luck and he’s going to come right back down to earth against the Baltimore Orioles. 

The Orioles haven’t been hitting the cover off the ball of late like they were earlier in the year, but they still make for a great play vs. a bad pitcher.  They have one of the top young lineups in the league and every night out they have the potential to put up a very crooked number.  Tonight is no different.

The main bats I’m interested in here are going to be Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman.  All 3 of them will have the platoon advantage and are quite frankly, the most talented hitters in this lineup.  Henderson, after struggling through the first year of his MLB career has really come alive over the last month or so.  He has a ton of potential in this matchup. 

I’m also very interested in Anthony Santander.  He’s been one of the teams’ most consistent hitters since the start of the 2022 season.  He’s one of their MVP’s and should always be considered in their stack.  Other bats to look at here are Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks.

I didn’t mention them, but Atlanta is very much in play.  They are essentially a team that is in play every single night, regardless of who they are facing.  Every hitter in their lineup has home run potential every single AB. 

MLB DFS Summary

We have ourselves a small slate tonight.  We have a couple of good options on the mound and bats should be plentiful. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 23)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s full-slate Friday!  Tonight we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS.  This slate brings us back to Coors, but there will also be other areas for offense.  We have solid pitchers in great spots also that we’ll want to take full advantage of. The biggest thing with this slate will be weather though. Many games are at risk of delay/ppd.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Chris Bassitt vs. Oakland Athletics

Chris Bassitt is coming off 2 starts that he probably wants to forget.  He did however face 2 of the better lineups in all of baseball in Texas and Baltimore.  Tonight, he’ll face a much inferior lineup in the Oakland Athletics.  The Athletics have been brutal vs. righties this season.  They have a 26% k rate and an OPS of just .640. 

This sets up for Bassitt to have a nice rebound performance.  We’ve seen him dial it up to get upwards of 41 DK points this season.  This matchup speaks for itself and we should see more of a ceiling game for Bassitt than a floor game. 

Brayan Bello vs. Chicago White Sox

To save a little bit of money on pitching today, I’m going to drop down to Brayan Bello.  Bello is coming off his best start of the season.  Against the Yankees, Bello struck out 8 across 7 innings and allowed just 1 ER.  It added up to a 29 DK-point outing for the young right-hander. 

The matchup today vs. the White Sox brings Bello a very similar upside.  The White Sox are not built to succeed vs. righties. They have a modest k rate of 23%, but they also have just a .670 OPS and a .290 wOBA.  Bellow should be able to navigate pretty easily through this lineup tonight. 

Other pitchers I like tonight will be Kodai Senga vs. Philly, Taijuan Walker vs. New York, and Kyle Gibson vs. Seattle. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland

If you’ve followed me, you know I try my hardest to avoid recommending Coors stacks.  Not because they aren’t good plays, but more so to provide you with other options.  I just can’t avoid this matchup tonight.  The Angels are really solid vs. lefties and today they’ll face one of the worst in the game.  Kyle Freeland has been really bad over the last month. 

Over the last month, Freeland has a 5.67 ERA and has allowed a nearly 36% flyball rate.  He’s attackable every single outing and this is one of the more attackable spots against him all year.  We want the righties here.  Righties have significantly better numbers vs. Freeland this season

I’m going to get to the obvious first.  Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are in play.  They are always in play.  They are 2 of the best hitters in the game.  Their prices however tonight are extremely restrictive.  Ohtani is $6.7k and Trout is $6.5k.  just insane. 

The 2 guys I really like here outside of Trout and Ohtani are Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe.  While neither guy has really crushed lefties this season, both historically have.  This is an elite matchup for both of them.  After those 2, I’ll look to add Chad Wallace, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo.  This entire lineup today is in play.

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin

For a while there, it looked like Patrick Corbin was starting to pitch with some competence.  Those days are long gone!  Over the last month, Corbin has been back to being the old Corbin.  His ERA is pushing 6 and he’s back to giving up what we love to see, hard contact.  His hard-hit rate over the last month is a massive 42%. 

Corbin’s walks are also up, which has led to a WHIP of nearly 2.00.  If the Padres show some patience tonight, they’ll put up a massive number.  I’m going to prioritize righties here.  Corbin’s numbers are way worse against them. 

My 2 favorite bats here are going to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis.  Both guys have absolutely crushed lefties this season.  Machado has a .422 wOBA and Tatis has a .488.  With Tatis, he’s shown some real power vs. them as well with a .420 ISO.  If I had to pick between the 2 of them, I’d go Machado due to price. 

Machado is significantly lower tonight and that extra cash will go a long way.  Another bat that I’ll prioritize here will be Gary Sanchez.  He’s been a stud vs. lefties this season, with a .429 ISO and a .385 wOBA.  Other bats to get here will be Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts. 

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. James Kaprielian and Texas vs. Luis Severino. 

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather tonight.  There are a ton of games at risk of t-storms.  That said, the stacks/pitchers I laid out are weather-risk-free. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 2)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight we’ll get to navigate through 13 games to try to find the best pitchers and stacks that will take us to the top of the leaderboards.  This slate brings us some top pitching and also some glorious spots for offense. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Logan Webb vs. Baltimore Orioles

Is the Cinderella story that is the Baltimore Orioles coming to an end?  Things haven’t been as rosy for the second-place Orioles over the last week.  Out is Cedric Mullins and in is Yankees castoff Aaron Hicks.  That’s as big of a talent drop-off as there is.  The Orioles’ offense has really hit a skid as they’ve scored just 24 runs over the last week and have struck out 25% of the time. 

That sets up nicely for Logan Webb to have a really nice night today.  Webb has been pitching extremely well of late.  Over his last 34 innings of work, he’s pitched to a 1.3 ERA and has allowed minimal fly balls and minimal hard contact.  Webb has been over 20 DK in 6 of his last 7 starts.  Look for that trend to continue tonight.

Jon Gray vs. Seattle Mariners

I think it’s safe to say at this point that the Seattle Mariners have been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball this season.  They currently sit just 2 games over .500 and are in third place in the AL East.  Their offense is coming into this one pretty cold.  Over the last week, they’ve scored just 24 runs and have struck out an insanely high 31% of the time.  They’ll face a pitcher in Jon Gray tonight that is pitching some of his best ball of the season. 

Over the last month, he’s pitched to an ERA of just 1 and has a 27% strikeout rate.  Over his last 4 outings, he’s been over 20 DK points in each and has been at 29  or higher in 3 of them.  He’s hot, the Mariners aren’t and that leads me to locking in Gray as one of my starters tonight. 

Other arms I do like today are Shohei Ohtani vs. Houston, Framber Valdez vs. the Angels, and Merrill Kelly vs. Atlanta. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jameson Taillon

Jameson Taillon has proven to be one of the worst free-agent signings of the offseason so far.  He’s been absolutely brutal this season for the Cubs, pitching to an ERA over 8 across 31 innings of work.  If we look at a more recent sample size, he’s pitched to a 10 ERA over the last month, while giving up 5 homers and 9 barrels in just 17 innings of work. 

He’s going to have his hands full tonight as he’ll be facing a Padres lineup that may just be finding their groove.  We’re going to want to focus on the lefties vs. Taillon tonight.  Lefties have been tormenting all season as they have a .316 ISO and a .456 wOBA.  Both are extremely high numbers.  Lefties also have a 49% flyball rate and a 47% hard-hit.  Again, very high numbers. 

The lefties we’ll look to target here are going to be Jake Cronenworth, Juan Soto, and Matt Carpenter.  We can also look at Rougned Odor to a lesser extent.  Although none of these guys are really hitting the cover off the ball right now, the matchup is phenomenal for them.  Taillon’s main pitch to leftie is his cutter.  This is a pitch that Soto has historically done very well against.  He’s one of my favorite plays of the day. 

While my focus is on the lefties, we can’t dismiss both Fernando Tatis and Gary Sanchez.  Sanchez has now homered in back-to-back games since being claimed by the Padres.  Can he make it 3 in a row vs. an awful pitcher?

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Lyles

I wish this game was being played in Coors but Kauffman Stadium will have to do.  Jordan Lyles is a perpetual lister and a pitcher I target every time he’s on the mound.  He gives up what we crave the most, homers and barrels.  Over his last 26 innings of work, Lyles has given up an incredible 7 homers and 10 barrels.  Lyles is having one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s 0-9 and his HR/9 of 2.34 is by far the highest it’s ever been in his career.  That number also continues to climb! 

With Lyles, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits.  Both sides of the plate have slugging %’s over .500 vs. him.  Each side also has 8 homers vs. him this season.  Yes, we’re just now getting into June and he’s already given up 16 homers. 

The first hitter in this Rockies lineup that I’m going to prioritize getting into my lineups tonight is Ryan McMahon.  McMahon had himself a monster last week.  He has 13 hits in his 27 AB, 4 of which have left the ballpark.  He’s also accounted for 8 runs and 11 RBI over the last week.  He’s been a beast and he’ll also get the platoon advantage here.  Would not be surprised to see him take Lyles deep today. 

Other bats that will have my interest here will be Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk, and Nolan Jones.  To be honest, every bat in this lineup will be in play for me as plug and plays apart from the stack because Lyles is that bad.  He’s arguably the worst pitcher in all of baseball. 

Other stacks I like today are going to be Phillies vs. Josiah Gray, Cardinals vs. Roansy Contreras, and Giants vs. Dean Kremer.

MLB DFS Summary

With the turn of the calendar to June, we’re inching closer to the dog days of summer.  It’s going to be a hot one in the majority of the regions and that means ball travel far.  I absolutely love pairing the Padres with the Rockies and it will be the winning combo.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 1)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

After a long few days of having to worry about weather and delays/ppd’s, the weather is beautiful for our 6-game slate of MLB DFS.  At first glance, this slate is a tough one.  There are no true aces and few pitchers that are actually in good spots. 

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Drew Smyly vs. Washington Nationals

This is how bad pitching is today as I’m recommending Drew Smyly first.  Smyly has pitched pretty respectably this year as he’s sporting an ERA of 3.21 and really hasn’t had a single start since his first start where he’s been blown up.  The biggest concern here will be strikeouts.  The Nationals don’t really strike out much vs. lefties.  The projected lineup today has just a 17% k rate vs. lefties. 

Smyly for his part isn’t a strikeout pitcher.  He has just a 25% k rate on the year.  I do think though that he pitches well enough to get into the teens tonight in terms of DK points and with how bad pitching is, that may be enough to get into the money. 

Blake Snell vs. Cincinnati Reds

This is another tough one.  Snell has all the talent in the world. He has shown to be dominant at times.  There’s one thing though that he’s struggled with his entire career and that’s his control.  He has a whopping 8.2 BB/9 this year.  Until he can get that under control, it will be tough to consider him a top-tier pitching in the league. 

That said, he gets a solid matchup today vs. the Reds.  As a whole, the Reds have very pedestrian numbers vs. lefties this season, including a nearly 25% k rate.  If Snell can cut down on his walks today, he has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate. 

Other pitchers I may have interest in are going to be Cal Quantrill vs. the Yankees if Judge is out again and Jose Berrios vs. Boston.  Just know Berrios is never trustworthy. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber

The Toronto Blue Jays offense exploded for 10 runs yesterday after getting nearly no-hit by a spot starter making his major league debut.  They have been one of the most inconsistent offenses all year and because of that, their ownership has been somewhat suppressed this season.  This is a great spot for their offense to continue with the moment they built yesterday.  

Corey Kluber is no longer an ace but a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best.  He matches up extremely poorly with the Blue Jays.  He’s a flyball pitcher facing a team that has a bunch of guys that have flyball rates over 40%.  A home run derby is not out of the question tonight.

I’m starting out my Blue Jays stack with Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, and George Springer.  Matt Chapman has been a beast this season.  His average is up to .380 on the season and has already driven up 21 RBI.  He also has a wOBA of .486.  He’s been locked in all season and has shown. 

After Chapman, I’ll lock in Bo Bichette.  Bichette had a pair of homers this week and combined for 11 runs + rbi.  Other bats I’ll look to here will be Vlad Guerrero, Danny Jensen, and Cavan Biggio,

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver

A case could be made to start Luke Weaver tonight.  He’s one of the few pitchers tonight that has any strikeout upside.  That said, he’s also giving up a boatload of runs.  Through 11 innings of work, his ERA is up to 7.71.  He’s given up 10 ER so far this season and 5 homers.  He’ll have his hands full tonight as he gets to take on a fully healthy Padres lineup.  I don’t care much about splits here.  Both sides have been crushing him this season.

I’m going to build around Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado tonight.  Both guys have really been coming around.  Tatis is only about a week into the season after finishing up his suspension for PEDs. Over his last 23 AB, Tatis has 8 hits and has an OPS pushing 1.000.  As he gets his timing back, he’s only going to get better.  He’s expensive, but he’s in line for a solid night. 

Machado has also been playing, but who wouldn’t after playing in Mexico for a couple of games?  That park makes Coors look huge.  He’s seeing the ball right now so we’ll want him in our lineups.  Other guys I like here are Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Trent Grishman, and anyone else that cracks the lineup.

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling

I’ve never been a huge fan of Ross Stripling.  He’s someone that gives up a lot of hard contact and a decent amount of flyballs.  Often, those flyballs tend to go over the fence.  I’ll be chasing that tonight.  Through 15 innings of work this season, he’s already given up 6 homers.  That’s not something that’s unfamiliar to him.  They were down for him last season, but in the 2 years prior to that he gave up more than 2 HR/9. 

When I play the Astros, I make it a point to play Yordan Alvarez.  He’s a top 5 bat in the league IMO.  Alvarez has quietly had a solid start to the year.  While he only has 6 homers, he’s up to 27 RBI.  With Altuve out, this lineup is built around him. 

I’m also going to add in Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena.  Pena is probably their hottest hitter right now.  Over his last 24 AB, Pena has 8 hits and 3 homers.  He’s hot at the plate and a priority for me.  I’ll round out this stack with guys like Mauricio Dubon and Kyle Tucker. 

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tough slate, there’s not sugar coating it.  I plan on playing light tonight because there are field mines everywhere just waiting to explode. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Daily Fantasy SportsMLBPremium

MLB DFS Aces and Bases (Apr. 9)

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLBPremium

MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 9)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

The sites have really split up today’s slates quite a bit!  We’re going to focus on the early slate starting at 1pm EST and then the main starting at 7pm EST.  We finally have some beautiful weather everywhere and shouldn’t need to worry about games being postponed or delayed.  

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup.  It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Early

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Lyles

Stacking the Rays yesterday wasn’t overly successful.  I’m going right back to the well because they face off today against Jordan Lyles.  If you followed my Aces and Bases last year, you know that Jordan Lyles was a favorite target of mine. He’s an MLB DFS gold mine! On the year last year, Lyles finished with a 5.03 xFIP and a hard-hit rate pushing 47%.  Batters had 51 barrels and 223 hard-hit balls against him.  Those are poor numbers and ones we want to attack.  He also gave up a career-high 38 homers.  

This stack today starts with Brandon Lowe.  Last year against righties, Lowe had a .305 ISO and .389 wOBA.  He had a phenomenal year and with a great matchup today should pick back up where he left off.  Another strong piece to this stack will be Ji-Man Choi.  He too had great numbers vs. righties last year, with a .254 ISO and .376 wOBA against them. 

My final priority to my core here will be Kevin Kiermaier.  All three of these guys will face a barrage of low 90’s fastballs as Lyles throws it close to 50% of the time to lefties.  The three of them all of ISO’s over .200 to this pitch type from righties.  You can absolutely throw in some righties to this stack, but my core will be these 3. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller

The Cardinals exploded for 9 runs on opening day and should have every chance to get right back to that number today.  While Keller made some approvements over the offseason, he’s still someone that has not had much success at the major league level.  Last year was a big struggle for Keller, as the pitched to a 4.90 xFIP and had an ERA over 6.  While the difference in those numbers shows he had some bad luck, having an xFIP that close to 5 still isn’t good.  Keller was equally as bad to both sides of the plate last season so we shouldn’t need to worry too much about splits. 

The Cardinals stack really should start with guys like Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Nolan Arenado.  O’Neill is probably my favorite of the bunch as he crushed right-handed pitching last year.  Last year he had a .265 ISO and .372 wOBA vs. them.  He sits sandwiched between Goldy and Arenado and should have a monster year. 

If you want to go cheap with this stack, you won’t miss a beat with Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong.  Both of them are reasonably priced today and get you a piece of a team that should put up a healthy amount of runs today.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Justin Steele

This was the matchup they were supposed to get yesterday, but thanks to some snow the game was PPD.  The hitting environment won’t be great today for the Brewers, but the matchup will be.  Justin Steele made his big league debut last year, and although it wasn’t awful it wasn’t anything special.  On the year he had an xFIP north of 4.2 and a HR/9 close to 1.9. 

That HR/9 is what I’m looking at.  We chase long balls in DFS and we can try to chase that with Steele.  Steele has very clear splits.  Lefties had a meager .098 ISO against him last year, but righties had a .230.  We’re going to chase him hard with righties. 

I’m going to go with some cheap guys in this stack.  The top 2 stacks are expensive and we need to find ways to be able to afford them.  I’m not telling you to not play guys like Renfroe or Adames or even McCutchen.  They are all in smash spots today.  Especially McCutchen who started off the year well and had a ton of success against lefties last year, with a .342 ISO.  We just don’t have unlimited funds to play with. 

If you can afford them, absolutely play them.  A cheap way to get this stack in is with Mike Brosseau.  He had a .202 ISO vs. lefties last year and will save you some cash.  Another way to get there is with Tyrone Taylor.  Taylor also had some success vs. lefties last year as he had an ISO close to .200.  Both of those guys will open up some cash for you to be able to afford the big bats. 

MLB DFS Early Slate Summary

Today’s early slate has some really attackable pitchers.  I’m always an advocate of stacking against Jordan Lyles and today will be no different.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Atlanta Braves vs. Vladimir Gutierrez

Gutierrez will probably turn into a very good pitcher one day, he’s just not there yet.  And until he’s there, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against.  In his first year in the majors, Gutierrez really struggled as he pitched to an xFIP of 5.11.  Once you get over that 5 for a season, it really indicates a struggle. 

One of the things he really struggled with was the long ball.  Gutierrez gave up 20 homers last season in just 114 innings of work.  With Gutierrez, we have some pretty clear splits.  Lefties torched him last year with a .247 ISO and a 46% hard-hit rate. 

The lefties I want to focus on with the Braves tonight are newcomer Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario.  Both guys had ISO’s at or above .200 last year vs. righties.  One of the top secondary pitches that Gutierrez will throw to them tonight will be a curveball.  If Gutierrez hangs one, both guys should be able to put one over the right-field wall.  Other guys I’d want here are Albies and also Duvall.  Duvall has really found a home here in Atlanta and it’s been fun to watch.  He’s always a risk to strike out, but he provides enough reward with his power to overcome that risk. 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Wright

I wish the Reds had a better lineup, but I still like them tonight.  One of the Braves’ weaknesses this year is Kyle Wright.  That sounds harsh but true.  Wright has not had much success in his few trips to the majors.  In 14 starts at the big league level, Wright has a 6.56 ERA to go with a 5.73 xFIP.  He hasn’t been good and we’ll want to attack him when we can.  While he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, lefties have a 54% flyball rate against him so if we’re going to chase homers, we’ll do it with lefties.  

I’ll start this stack with TikTok star Joey Votto.  Votto has a long track record of success vs. righties and last year was no different.  He had a .366 ISO vs. them last year and a .430 wOBA.  Votto will see a healthy amount of sinkers today and that’s a pitch he enjoys smashing.  Over the last few years, Votto has a .292 ISO against them from righties and a .485 wOBA.  Anything can happen, but Votto is set up to have a nice night. 

I’m going to surround him with Jonathan India and Tyler Naquin tonight. I also wouldn’t talk you out of playing Mike Moustakas tonight.  Like Votto, he crushes sinkers.  This is a good spot for him.

San Diego Padres vs. Zach Davies

Davies had arguably the worst year of his career last season.  The move to Chicago was not a good one for him.  His HR/9 was the highest of his career and his GB% was also close to the lowest of his career.  He also struggled mightily with his command as his BB% reached double digits for the first time since his rookie year in 2015. 

We’re going to wait to see if Arizona is any different for him, but until he shows something different, I’ll stack against him in DFS.  Davies is pretty splits-neutral, although lefties have a higher flyball rate.  That said, righties hit him much harder. 

Davies predominantly throws a sinker.  This is a pitch that a handful of Padres have had success against.  I’ll start this stack with leadoff hitter Trent Grisham.  Grisham has had success against sinkers, with a .415 wOBA and .246 ISO against it.  He’ll set the table today for a team that should put up some runs against a struggling pitcher.  

The rest of the guys I’d look to in this stack tonight are Croneworth, Voit, and Profar.  All three are cheap to reasonably priced and will help you get to the expensive stacks tonight.  

MLB DFS Late Slate Summary

You’ll notice I left off the Coors game in my stacks section.  You’ll rarely see me write up the Coors games unless there is a glaring necessity to play them.  Any game in Coors has the potential to be high-scoring.  I just don’t see it tonight, especially from the Dodgers’ side as they get German Marquez.  Marquez is an elite pitcher.  He can shut down any lineup, in any park.  Can the Dodgers blow him out today?  yes, they definitely can.  And if they do, I’ll be ok fading them. 

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the premier edition of Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

After an extra-long break due to the lockout, we’re finally back.  Both sites have different-sized slates that we’ll have to deal with today.  Today’s Main Slates kicks off at 2:20 on FanDuel for a 7 game slate and at 4:10 on DraftKings for a 6 game slate.  DFS wise, opening day is one of the tougher days to navigate through.  We normally have a slew of Aces on the mound, making stacking that much more complicated and condensed. 

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup.  It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

I’ll start by saying this is the chalk stack of the day.  Everyone and their mother will be on them, and rightfully so.  MadBum is a shell of his former self.  Age and bike accidents have caught up to him.  While 2021 wasn’t nearly as bad as 2020, he still had one of the lowest K/9s of his career with a 7.63. 

One of the most glaring things about MadBum last season was his career-high flyball rate of 45%.  He had never been over 42% before last season.  Hitters are starting to put the ball in the air more against him and that’s a recipe for disaster when you can no longer blow away hitters. 

With the Padres I want to focus on the hitters from the right side of the plate.  Thankfully for us, this lineup is littered with righties.  One of my favorite targets in this stack is going to be newcomer Luke Voit ($3,500 FD/$3,500 DK).  Last season he had a 45.5% hard-hit rate vs. lefties with a 36% flyball rate.  He rates well against cutters too, with a .153 ISO against them. 

The other pieces I love here are Machado ($3,800 FD/$4,800 DK), Wil Myers ($2,600 FD/$3,400 DK), and Austin Nola ($2,200 FD/$3,100 DK).  All three have a long history of success against cutters and that’s going to be one of the main pitches being thrown to them by MadBum.  On FD, this stack is criminally underpriced. 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Zack Greinke

This is my “be different” stack today.  Like MadBum, Greinke is at or past his expiration date.  Greinke has a ton of miles on his arm and his performance has really started regressing over the years.  He returns to Kansas City after leaving them after the 2010 season.  He is a much different pitcher than he was 12 years ago.  Greinke had a career-low 17% K% last season.  While he still doesn’t allow many fly balls, his line drive % has ticked up and his groundball rate has gone down.  This is an all-or-nothing play.  You either do a full stack here or move on.

My stack here starts with Jose Ramirez ($4,300 FD/$5,600 DK).  He is the face of the Guardians franchise and just signed a very fat contract to remain in Cleveland for a long time to come.  Greinke throws an upper 80’s fastball to lefties.  Over the last few years, Ramirez has in insanely high .778 ISO against that pitch type with an average distance of over 346 feet.  That’s high! 

With this stack, we don’t need to shy away from right-handed bats.  Last season, Greinke was significantly worse to righties than lefties.  I love the idea of starting this stack with Myles Straw ($2,700 FD/$4,300 DK) and then Amed Rosario ($2,500 FD/$4,200 DK).  Neither of those guys will hit for much power, but they’ll get on base and make things happen for Ramirez.  

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin

There’s a chance this game gets washed out, but they did proactively move the game back to 7pm tonight with the hope of avoiding the weather.  From a DFS and fan perspective, I really hope this game gets in.  Patrick Corbin was a bit Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde last year.  He had some absolutely brutal games and some gems.  When all was said and done though, he still had a pretty bad year.  His HR/9 crept up to almost 2 which was a career-high. 

Some of the advanced metrics say he shouldn’t have been as bad as he was, but he was still bad with a career-high 4.29 xFIP and 5.82 ERA.  It’s now 2 straight years with an xFIP over 4.  Tonight he gets a tough matchup against a newly made Mets lineup.  Righties had an ISO of .267 and a wOBA of .391 against him last year.  The Mets will have 7 righties in their lineup tonight.  You do the match on how bad this could potentially be for Corbin

When you stack the Mets, you start with the polar bear, Pete Alonso ($3,600 FD/$4,800 DK).  Last year he had a .342 ISO against lefties.  He has a ton of power and is always a home run threat.  I love newly acquired Marte ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) but I plan on stacking the Mets 4-7 tonight.  Last season was a struggle for JD David ($2,100 FD/$2,600 DK) thanks to a nagging hand injury.  If he’s healthy this year, he should have a huge bounce back.  Corbin throws his slider more than 36% of the time to righties.  Davis over the last few years has absolutely crushed this pitch, to the tune of a .450 ISO.  If he’s in the lineup today, he’s a core for this stack. 

My other piece here would be Eduardo Escobar ($2,900 FD/$4,100 DK).  Escobar is a lefty crusher as he had a .243 ISO against them last year.  He too fairs well against sliders from lefties.  This has the makings of a short day for Corbin.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks

If you’re playing on FanDuel today, the Brewers should be in your consideration for stacks.  Hendricks really struggled last year, posting career highs in ERA, xFIP, xERA, and Homers allowed.  It was a struggle all year for him.  With the Brewers, we’d want to focus on guys from the left side of the plate.  Lefties had a .364 wOBA against Hendricks last season.  He also gave up a tad bit more hard contact vs. them as well as fly balls.  Hard contact and fly balls are what we’re looking for.  My stack here would start with guys like Rowdy Tellez ($2,200 FD), Omar Narvaez ($2,500 FD), and Jace Peterson ($2,000).  All three are close to min priced on FD and fared well against righties last season. 

Other stacks I like today are the Cardinals and Atlanta.  Both are high priced, especially on DraftKings.  If I had to prioritize one of the 2, I’d side with St. Louis as they have the better matchup on paper. 

MLB DFS Summary

Well, opening day is finally here my friends and MLB DFS is back!  I’m like a kid in a candy store right now and can’t wait for the games to start.  Fading the Padres is certainly in play today, but they are in a great spot.  Could we get vintage MadBum?  Sure.  Are the chances high of that?  Nope.  It may be the homer in me as I’m a die-hard Mets fan, but I really love the spot for them.  This is arguable the best lineup they’ve had in years up and down the lineup.  They should smash Corbin and then get a below-average bullpen.  

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/4 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, August 06

Jared Levitt
written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots.  Today we have a full 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through. 

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation. 

We have a full slate of games tonight and with that we actually have some solid options for pitching.  The first pitcher that I’m leading off with is German Marquez ($8.4k).  Marquez continues to be an ace level pitcher who we get at a big discount due to his pitching environment. 

We’re getting a pitcher in the mid $8k range who has scored less than 18 DK points only 3 times in the last 3 months.  Marquez has dialed up the K’s a bit over the past 30 days with a 28% K rate.  That’s up from his season long number of 25.7%. 

The lineup that he’s going to face tonight will be almost entirely right handed, minus Chisholm.  Marquez’s K rate jumps to 31% vs. righties compared to just 21% vs. lefties.  There’s always risk in using a pitcher in Coor’s but this is Marquez’s home turf and he’s been lights out at home this year.

The other two pitchers I’m contemplating using today are Corbin Burnes ($10k) and Chris Bassitt ($9.8k). Both guys are priced around the same but I’m coming at them from different directions.  Burnes is the pitcher with more elite strike out ability but he gets to take on a tough Giants lineup. 

As Adam alluded to in the Starting Rotation today, the Giants are very good at hitting the cutter.  With that being Burnes’ top pitch, it definitely creates some risk in using him as you’re paying top dollar for a pitcher that may have reduced K’s.  That said, no pitcher on this slate has more strike out upside than Burnes. 

For Bassitt, he doesn’t have anywhere near the strike out ability that Burnes has, but he gets the softer match up.  Since the trade deadline their lineup has been anemic.  They have nearly a 26% k rate over the past week with just 11 barrels and 54 hard hits.  Add in that they’ve walked just 7 times and we have a team here that’s free swinging and impatient.  Bassitt is set up to have a nice day today. 

Now that we have pitching out of the way, let’ find us some bats.  The first place I’m looking at is the Oakland Athletics facing off against Mike Foltynewicz.  Folty has faced the A’s three times now this season and hasn’t really had a “blow up” game yet.  It’s coming folks, join me the for the ride. 

The A’s have progressively hit him harder as they see him more.  The first outing, their hard hit rate was 31.6%.  The second was 47.4%. And the third was 55.6%.  In that third game they torched him for 3 solo home runs.  In all 3 games against the A’s this year he had a LOB % greater than 83%. 

Tonight’s the night where he has one of his blow up games.  My main targets here will Olson ($5.3k), Laureano ($3.9k), and Lowrie ($3.7k).  This is the middle of the A’s lineup and they are the ones that have the most power potential.  If you want to get the savings Moreland ($2.8k) is extremely cheap and has had a lot of success against sinkers.

Another great spot for offense today will be the San Diego Padres vs. Caleb Smith.  In Smith we have a pitcher who’s really struggling of late.  Over the last month his xFIP is sitting right at 5.89.  He’s just giving up a ton of hard contact and way too many fly balls. 

While the Padres lineup is quite a bit weaker without Tatis, they have a bunch of guys in that lineup that make it still one of the top lineups in the league.  The guys I want to focus on here will be batters from the right side as Smith’s fly ball rate sky rockets to almost 50% against them. 

Righties will see a mix of low 90’s fastballs and sliders tonight.  Both Machado ($5.6k) and Myers ($3.9k) have strong power numbers against both pitches.  Pham ($4.2k) is also a batter that profiles extremely well tonight. 

The final place I’ll look to for offense is the place that will give us the value.  The Baltimore Orioles are an underrated team when it comes to facing lefties.  On the year they have just a 21% K rate, 111 wRC+, and an ISO of .769.  It’s supposed to be in the upper 80’s at game time tonight and when it gets warm in Baltimore, the ball flies. 

To take advantage of Yarbrough we want to grab batters from the right side as his ISO is significantly higher against righties.  Austin Hays ($2.5k), Mancini ($4.7k), and Mountcastle ($3.4k) all have ISO’s greater than .240 against lefties this year.  Hays is my favorite of the bunch as he’ll provide us with more flexibility with our other bats.  Urias ($2.7k), Santander ($2.3k), Franco ($2.7k), and Martin ($2k) are all in play too as they’ll have the platoon advantage and all under $3k. 

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

With tonight being a full slate we’re back to having some pitching options.  I’m going to be looking to Oakland and San Diego for my main bats tonight and then grab a couple of cheap O’s to complete my lineups. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from because of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Gerrit Cole($10,100)

Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.

Best GPP Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000)

The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.

Contrarian GPP Play: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,400)

Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack (Outside Coors): San Diego Padres

The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.

Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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