With the Bucks and Clippers both kicking off their seasons last night, every NBA team now has at least one game under their belt. Tonight, we’re back to a full slate of games and the schedule is now more balanced heading into the second week of the year. There are short rotations to take advantage of and a few game environments that stand out above the rest. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
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While it was Keldon Johnson who paced the team in minutes and scoring, there are affordable options to get exposure to a rebuilding Spurs squad on this NBA slate. Firstly, Devin Vassell remains underpriced in the backcourt. He not only had a higher usage rate than Johnson, but he also has the opportunity to grow from his decent outing from a few nights ago. Vassell shot 0-for-8 from behind the arc and only 3-for-15 from the field, despite still putting up 20.5 DK points. Alongside Vassell is starting point guard, Tre Jones, who will continue running this offense, in addition to rookie Jeremy Sochan, who gets a friendly matchup versus a frontcourt that will be without their best defender in Myles Turner.
In Wednesday’s article, I told you to get used to seeing Tyrese Haliburton’s name listed here. Tonight, in his second game of the NBA season, I’m talking about him once again. While Haliburton finished fourth on the team in usage rate at 24.8%, he led them in field goal attempts, scoring, and assists. He is the heartbeat to this Pacers offense and remains firmly in play until his price catches up to him. Other, with Myles Turner still out, projection model darling Jalen Smith was a mere 6% rostered, despite being our top value play. Not only did he come through with 30 DK points at $4,400, but he also led the team in usage rate at 29.1%. Smith had a great outing on Wednesday, and that was with early foul trouble, which he won’t have to be concerned with versus an imposing Spurs frontcourt tonight.
With Jaren Jackson Jr. (foot) out for the next two months, there is value to be had in this Memphis frontcourt. Moreover, Dillon Brooks (thigh) is doubtful for tonight, increasing minutes across a thin rotation. Ja Morant finished last game with a 34/4/9 scoring line on 45.8% shooting, leading the Grizzlies in both usage rate at 37.2% and field goal attempts with 24. In the frontcourt, the trio of Steven Adams, Santi Aldama, and Brandon Clarke will all get further looks on offense in the absence of Jackson Jr. Of the three, Aldama was the most impressive, not only leading the trio, but actually pacing his whole team in minutes played. Clarke can come in and be efficient at any point, but all signs point to coach Taylor Jenkins using Clarke off the bench, leaving Aldama time to build on his 18/11 effort in the Grizzlies’ season opener.
The Houston Rockets are going to be a ton of fun this NBA season. The trio of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Kevin Porter Jr. are all impactful players. The three combined for 54 points on 56 shots, shooting a mere 39.29% from the field, but have an easier matchup tonight than Dejounte Murray and DeAndre Hunter. Meanwhile, Bruno Fernando got a surprising start and produced well in 25 minutes, posting a 7/9/7 scoring line on 100% shooting. However, I’ll let the field chase his previous game. The usage was an abysmal 6.2%, while his seven assists were a career high. Rather, Alperen Sengun makes for an intriguing tournament play coming off the bench. He logged nearly as many minutes as Fernando with 22 of his own, while also leading the team with a 30.5% usage rate and has a size advantage over the Grizzlies bench.
Honorable Mentions:
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After two thrilling games on opening night, we have our first large slate of the NBA season. New rotations and multiple players making debuts with their new teams steal the headlines, but there are also players returning from serious injuries and plenty of elite game environments to target. While the games listed in the Honorable Mentions section at the end of the article are high on my list, they will be popular. Thus, discussed are a few spots that may go overlooked in tournaments. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
You will see a reoccurring message across all articles, but it’s truly imperative to success. The way NBA news rolls in unlike any other sport makes every slate different. Thus, it’s crucial to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.
In a game that will largely go overlooked on a large NBA slate, there is offensive upside to be had. The Wizards offense will continue to run through Bradley Beal, who is expensive tonight, but his teammates are not. Kyle Kuzma is coming of a career year where he averaged 17.1/8.5/3.5 on 45.2% shooting through a 24.3% usage rate. Facing off versus a combination of poor defenders and inexperienced wings, he may not make my final lineup, but Kuzma draws intrigue in my preview.
On the flipside of this game, get used to seeing Tyrese Haliburton listed here early and often. In 13 games for the Pacers last season, Haliburton was electric. The usage was modest at 20.2%, but he averaged an 18/10.9 double-double while also grabbing nearly five rebounds per game. Facing a Wizards perimeter defense that struggles to guard primary ball handlers, Haliburton finds himself as a key component of my NBA lineups tonight.
The pace of this one will be off the charts and both teams carry a ton of upside. Brooklyn had an offseason to remember, involving storylines surrounding their two star players, but their rotation remains intact and now has reinforcements. Should you choose to go with a 1-2 punch at the top of the pricing grid tonight from the same game, this is it. Beginning with Kevin Durant, your NBA lineups can generate upside from a back and forth in this one. Durant can score with ease, dropping nearly 30 PPG last season through a 31.1% usage rate. One of the safest players in the league to log heavy minutes nightly, Durant not only has a safe floor, but one of the highest ceilings on this slate.
Making his return to an NBA floor in this one is none other than Zion Williamson. The former Duke standout missed all of last season, but is back after averaging 27/7.2/3.7 across 33 MPG in his last full campaign. In a glorious matchup versus a Nets defense that struggled mightily on the interior last season, Williamson is intriguing for tournaments, barring any minute limitations. The Nets allowed over 47 points in the paint per contest last season, and didn’t address their interior defense in the offseason. A force in the paint that averaged seven paint touches per game in his last full season, good for 10th in the NBA, Williamson makes for a good target in tournaments.
Let it be known that both of these teams are tanking for Victor Wembanyama. Arguably the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James, if you have not seen footage of his game, I suggest going to watch it as soon as possible. Needless to say that these types of game environments will be elite for NBA DFS this year and we won’t have to wait until the later stages of the season to get exposure to them. With LaMelo Ball (ankle) not playing in the Hornets’ season opener, look for both Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier to take all the shots they can handle. With Ball off the court last season, both Rozier and Oubre Jr. saw increases in usage and fantasy production. Rozier saw his usage rate increase from 23.4% to 25.5%, while Oubre Jr. saw an increase in usage from 22.9% to 25.9%.
Gone is Dejounte Murray, the former face of the Spurs franchise, as they now enter their biggest rebuild since drafting Tim Duncan. With Murray now in Atlanta, there are so many touches to go around offensively and the Spurs are in arguably the best matchup NBA DFS has to offer. Charlotte ended last season 5th in pace and 22nd in net defensive rating, struggling across multiple positions and player types. Dominating usage for the Spurs early on is Tre Jones, who will be supported by the likes of Josh Primo and Devin Vassell in the backcourt, with the duo of Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl manning the frontcourt. In eleven starts last season, Jones posted a 13.5/4.6/7.5 scoring line on 48.8% shooting all on a mere 17.5% usage rate.
Honorable Mentions:
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Cash with Flash Best Bets is now on video and Flash has issued a 30 Day Cash with Flash Sports Handicapping Challenge. Cash with Flash picked the Indiana State Sycamores to defeat the Troy Trojans and that didn’t happen. The Flash is now 12-5 through the first seventeen days of the 30 Day Sports Handicapping Challenge.
What is the Cash with Flash 30 Day Sports Handicapping Challenge? Flash shared the details in the first video of this series and everything that you need to know is in the video below.
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The 11/1 NBA DFS schedule is built around eight games on the main slate, giving DFSers an abundance of options in a star-filled evening.
The Cavaliers don’t offer much offensively, averaging 106 points per game (22nd overall). They are a respectable 13th in scoring defense (108.3). At 26th in pace (100.1), they should have some DFS opportunity against a Pacers team that is 28th in pace (98.7).
Tristan Thompson ($7800 FD) is either playing over his head or the Cavs have finally decided to let him become an offensive option (27.90 PER). The answer is somewhere in between, but he’s a good play tonight, especially since the Pacers won’t have Myles Turner available. Kevin Love ($8800 FD) has only a 20.9 usage rate, but he’s grabbing 16.8 boards and five assists. If he’s scoring 15-17 per game, that’s a stat stuffer worth having in your lineup. Collin Sexton ($4800 FD) is averaging 17.5 points but if you’re not getting assists from your point guard, well…
Best Play — Thompson. Dud — Sexton. Sleeper — Larry Nance ($6000, FD)
The Pacers are doing some damn good underachieving thus far. The offense is 24th in scoring (105.3), which offsets its 12th-ranked scoring defense (108.3). As mentioned, they’re running at a very slow pace with a middle-of-the-pack offensive rating of 106.7 (16th).
One could only imagine how worse things would be for the Pacers if Malcolm Brogdon ($9200 FD) wasn’t playing at an elite level. Brogdon has increased his usage rate by a third, going from a modest 20 last season to his current 30. The question will be whether he can maintain that pace as the focal point of the offense. Domantas Sabonis ($8800 FD) is playing like his numbers suggested he could: as a 20-10 player. He’s only playing at a 24.9 usage rate, and I’m betting it goes up as long as Turner is out. T.J. Warren ($6300 FD) is playing at a very disappointing level. I would have never expected he’d be playing at a PER below 10. Jeremy Lamb ($6400 FD) has been decent, but barely moves the DFS needle.
Stud — Brogdon. Dud — Warren. Sleeper — Justin Holiday ($3800 FD)
The Rockets are first in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They will not bore you. They are also a gateway to big DFS money tonight because they’re not going to take their foot off the gas and will dare the Nets to play at track meet-level.
This has become Russell Westbrook’s team. No kidding. James Harden ($11,000 DK) is playing as if he’s the sidekick to Westbrook ($9800 DK) instead of the other way around. Harden is blowing off the doors with a 40.8 usage but is playing below expectations. I’m not paying for him tonight. I will, however, pay for Westbrook, who already has a pair of triple-doubles. Consider pairing Westbrook with Clint Capela ($7400 DK), who puts up solid numbers nightly despite a usage rate under 20. P.J. Tucker ($4700 DK) is fun to watch as an undersized four. This could be a game to add him to a few lineups.
Stud — Westbrook. Dud — Eric Gordon ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Tucker
This will be a great game for some stacking, as the Nets are 10th in offensive rating and are also 10th in pace. Brooklyn will be more than willing to trade shots with Houston, so buckle up.
Obviously, it begins with Kyrie Irving ($9000 DK), who is playing One Man Gang-like DFS. His 37.4 Usage rate is high, but most of us would have imagined a higher total. He’ll get his 50+ DKP tonight, and the only way that happens is if he’s injured or in foul trouble. As mentioned before, I love Jarrett Allen ($5000 DK), and it’s beginning to look like the Nets are willing to give him more minutes. He’d be a good sidekick for Irving. Caris LeVert ($6000 DK) makes for an interesting play.
Stud — Irving. Dud — Taurean Prince ($4900 DK). Sleeper — Allen.
The Bucks run the third-highest pace in the league and sport an offensive rating ranked eighth overall. Defensively, their rating is 15th, so there’s some room for improvement.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800 FD) is obviously the engine of the Bucks and is among the most expensive players on the slate. He’s a double-double lock who’s also adding eight assists and a steal per night. Khris Middleton ($7300 FD) becomes more valuable now that he’s grabbing nearly seven boards per night. Brook Lopez ($5600 FD) is a bonus with blocked shots, but you can’t trust a center who can’t give you boards. Eric Bledsoe ($6300 FD) has a PER under 10. You may not buy into PER as much as I do, but a starter below 10 PER isn’t going to carry you to DFS glory.
Stud — Antetokounmpo. Dud — Bledsoe. Sleeper — Middleton.
Only two teams are averaging fewer than 100 points per game. The Magic happen to be one of them. They also happen to be the worst scoring offense in the league at 95.8 points per game. Needless to say, there’s not a lot of DFS gold to be found here.
You can count on the double-double from Nikola Vucevic ($8700 FD), and he’s a good bet to hit his 35 FDP. Beyond that, the only other Magic player to be excited about is Jonathan Isaac ($6600 FD), who has an embarrassingly low 15.5 Usage rate. On a team as bad as Orlando, Issac needs to be at least in the mid-20s in UR. Since he’s not, that means players like Aaron Gordon ($6700 FD), Evan Fournier ($5000 FD) and D.J. Augustin ($4100 FD) are hoarding usage while producing at poor levels. That has to change.
Stud — Vucevic. Dud — Gordon. Sleeper — Isaac.
For all the flashes of potential, the Knicks are 28th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. They’re 25th in pace. In short: little has changed with the Knicks.
You still have to strongly consider RJ Barrett ($6600 DK), whose PER doesn’t quite match up to his impressive DFS numbers. He’s a rookie who’s playing over expectation, yet this clash against the Celtics will give us an indication of whether he’s a legit DFS option or if he thrives off lesser competition. Mitchell Robinson ($5200 DK) can’t be trusted until his ankles get healthy. He’s not going to get off the court, so just play him at your own risk. Julius Randle ($7600 DK) is up and down. He was up on Wednesday, but I see more down tonight. Bobby Portis ($5400 DK) could surprise off the bench.
Stud — Barrett. Dud — Robinson. Sleeper — Portis.
Boston sits in the middle ground when it comes to pace but they are ninth in defensive rating, which makes this a challenge if you’re considering to play a Knicks player or two.
This is Jayson Tatum’s team. Tatum ($7000 DK) is second to Kemba Walker ($8400 DK) in scoring, but he’s adding a pair of steals on the defensive end to go along with what he does on offense. Walker is adding a surprising five boards a night but is getting less than four assists per night. Jaylen Brown ($5600 DK) is questionable tonight, which is disappointing since I thought he was the sleeper in this lineup. Gordon Hayward ($6100 DK) is getting heavy minutes thus far, a very good sign he’s beyond his near career-ending injury two years ago.
Stud — Tatum. Dud — Marcus Smart ($4900 DK). Sleeper — Hayward.
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Don’t count on this game being a run and gun affair. The Pistons are 21st in pace, just above the Bulls, who are ranked 23rd. Detroit is a surprising 15th in offensive rating but sit at 24th in defensive rating.
You know what you’ll get from Andre Drummond ($10,100 FD). You have to ask yourself if his 50.97 FDP is worth it. Derrick Rose ($5700 FD) is looking like the Derrick Rose we all wished he could have been, but he’s dealing with a bad hammy and may sit out tonight. Reggie Jackson ($4600 FD) is also out, which means the Pistons are going to need a little more production from Luke Kennard ($4900 FD). The Pistons have four players who have started at least three games with PERs lower than 10, which doesn’t bode well for DFS users.
Stud — Drummond. Dud — Markeiff Morris ($4400 FD). Sleeper — Kennard.
The Bulls sit in the bottom third in most categories, but if they were pick up the pace, you could begin to feel good about the young cornerstones of the lineup.
Bad thumb or not, Wendell Carter Jr. ($6600) has made marked improvement and could be a reliable DFS option if he can get his Usage rate beyond 19. I do like the pairing of him and Lauri Markkanen ($7300 FD), who has a 26.9 Usage rate and the caliber of game that could see him really thrive if he hits above 30 in UR. Zach LaVine ($7600 FD) tops the team at 28.8 UR and his strong start is a good sign that he’s becoming a good DFS option on most nights. Otto Porter ($5500 FD) is stealing money right now. Don’t let him steal yours’ by putting him in your lineup.
Stud — LaVine. Dud — Porter. Sleeper — Carter
The addition of Anthony Davis ($10,600 DK) has made Showtime more like Slowtime, as the Lakers are 22nd in pace. However, they are seventh in offensive rating, which shouldn’t be a shock considering they have a pair of transcendent players in AD and LeBron James ($9900 DK).
What Davis has done is made the Lakers more defensive. LA is seventh in defensive rating, helped by the fact Davis averages three blocked shots per game and role player Dwight Howard ($4700 DK) is rejecting 2.3 shots per night. The Lakers are also getting 8.5 steals per game, which have enhanced the DFS potential of Davis and James. In the end, though, Danny Green ($4300 DK) is the only other Lakers player that can offer value outside of a Showdown format, that is at least until Kyle Kuzma ($6000 DK) makes his season debut tonight.
Stud — Davis. Dud — JaVale McGee ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Green.
Dallas is sitting third in offensive rating but 20th in defensive rating. The Mavs are middle of the road when it comes to pace, but I sense they may like to run a faster pace tonight with their host of younger legs seeking to wear down the Lakers.
Luka Doncic ($9700 DK) hasn’t found his shot over the past two games, hitting just 11 of 34 from the field. He might be wise to reduce his 3-point shooting, as he’s now under 30 percent from beyond the arc. That part of his game is why I’m reluctant to go all-in on him. In the case of Kristaps Porzingis ($8000 DK), I think he’ll rise to the challenge of having Davis guarding him. That should be a game within a game. The Mavs’ offensive success has also been sparked by Delon Wright ($5200), who has been a pleasant surprise as a part-time starter. I am interested to see how much we get from Dwight Powell tonight. I’m not suggesting Powell ($3800 DK), but he’s worth a look for the long haul.
Stud — Porzingis. Dud — Maxi Kleber ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Wright.
To the shock of no one, the Jazz rank near the bottom in pace, sitting 27th overall. Who cares, really, when you lead the league in defensive rating? However, they are 25th in offensive rating, so the pickings are rather slim here.
Donovan Mitchell ($8300 FD) is scoring 24 points per game, but his FDP continues to dip. Rudy Gobert has had one big game surrounded by three bad outings, as at $8,300 (FD), he’s a bit too much to risk on, even against a thin Kings front court. Mike Conley ($6900 FD) comes off his best game to date as his assists totals begin a stead climb up. Bojan Bagdanovic ($5100 FD) has sleeper potential, especially if this game gets out of hand. Joe Ingles ($5100 FD) has produced three decent games of DFS totals after opening the season with just 9.6 FDP.
Stud — Mitchell. Dud — Conley. Sleeper — Bagdanovic
The Kings are last in offensive rating, while their pace is 20th overall. A defensive rating ranked 27th in the league is going to leave them wide open for exploitation.
There just isn’t a lot to be encouraged about. Marvin Bagley III ($7900 FD) is out until the end of the month. Buddy Hield ($6500 FD) couldn’t hit water on a consistent basis even if you pushed him to the edge of the Pacific Ocean. De’Aaron Fox ($8500 FD) is starting to put it together, but this is a matchup I wouldn’t play him in. This game feels like like it will be in the mid-to-high 90s, and I get the sense Fox’s recent upswing is going to hit a Utah-sized speed bump. I’ve always been a fan of Nemanja Bjelica ($4800 FD). Can someone tell me where I can find Harrison Barnes ($5400 FD). Right now, the only Kings player to rely on is Richaun Holmes ($6500 FD). That’s saying a lot.
Stud — Holmes. Dud — Hield. Sleeper — Bjelica.
Pay attention to how the Spurs play this. Chances are good someone (we see you, LaMarcus Aldridge) will sit since the Spurs are playing back-to-back games. This matchup against the Warriors certainly lacks the star power and “Oooh, let me make sure I’m watching” appeal that it once did.
The Spurs are 11th in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating. They’re also ninth in pace, which blends well with the Warriors, who are fifth. At $7100 (DK), Aldridge is a nice play, provided he does suit up. I am all over Dejounte Murray, who is becoming one of my favorite players to watch. I’m putting Murray ($6400 DK) in a host of my lineups tonight because he’s going to exploit a Warriors backcourt that won’t have Stephen Curry in it. Pairing him and DeMar DeRozan ($7200 DK) is also an option worth considering.
Stud — Murray. Dud — Jakob Poeltl ($3300 FD). Sleeper — Derrick White ($5200).
Curry ($9600 DK) and Kevon Looney ($4900 DK) are both out. That means opportunity abounds for a host of young faces who are going to have to carry the shell of the now-departed dynasty. The Warriors have had pride in their defense. Not so much these days, as their 118.1 defensive rating is last in the league.
Obviously, this is Draymond Green ($7700 DK) leading the way. He’s going to have some huge usage with Curry out. D’Angelo Russell ($8900 DK) is also going to become a usage monster over the next few weeks. I like the upside of Eric Paschall ($4700 DK), who has massive sleeper potential. The same can be said for Glenn Robinson III ($4000 DK) and Marquese Chriss ($3200 DK), both of who will see more minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Willie Cauley-Stein ($4500 DK) gets the start tonight.
Stud — Green. Dud — Chriss. Sleeper — Paschall.
Jayson Tatum — Averages 41.1 Fantasy points per game at DraftKings.
Mitchell Robinson — Underachieving a bit at 26.8 FP at DraftKings, but is due for a breakout performance.
RJ Barrett — The rookie has been a revelation thus far, putting up 33.7 FP at DraftKings.
Verdict — I’ll put my neck out there and go with Barrett.
Baseball’s over, kiddies, so the 10/31 NBA DFS Game Previews & Prop Bets will have your undivided attention. It’s just a three-game slate, so the diamond withdrawal will come slowly.
The Heat are a surprising seventh in points per game (118). More surprising is they are third in pace at 107.8, trailing only the Rockets (no shock) and Grizzlies (now be shocked). Miami is just 15th in offensive rating and head into Atlanta to face a Hawks team that is playing better defensively than advertised, as they are 10th in defensive rating.
This should be a good matchup for Jimmy Butler, who is playing in just his second game of the season. Bam Adebayo is also a solid play; both are the only Heat players with Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) better than 20. The opposite is with Justise Winslow, whose PER is far worse (10.49) than expected. Not to worry, though: Winslow is out tonight. Rookie Tyler Herro is getting a lot of minutes with little true bang for the buck, but this is a good matchup that favors him.
I don’t feel good about Goran Dragic, who I feel is a bit overrated even in a bench role, but in a three-game slate, the options are limited. He’ll get his share of ownership. With Butler back and his track record of high usage rates (27.5 in his season debut), everyone has to follow his lead.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Butler and Adebayo. Oh, wait…you’re waiting for other names? Keep waiting.
The Hawks are living a charmed life in that Trae Young’s MRI on his injured ankle delivered good news, but they will be without him for tonight’s game. That means 38.2% of usage is up for grabs. Evan Turner has a bad Achilles and will be a game time decision, so it means that rookies Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter and Tyrone Wallace will have an opportunity to eat away at those minutes.
John Collins is the easy play here, but Jabari Parker is an interesting sleeper that I am tempted to add in a lineup or two as his minutes will get a boost in the wake of Young’s absence. Wallace’s 25.82 PER is the result of 14 garbage minutes, but he’s going to get a chance to see what he can do since Young is out until next week. Hunter, Alex Len and Reddish each have PERs under 10. That’s three members of your starting five. It’s going to get awfully ugly without Young, who’s going to really define the phrase Most Valuable Player.
Atlanta is 24th in offensive rating with Young in the lineup. Let that fester for a moment.
Putting it Bluntly: You are a sadist if you’re playing Showdown with this game. Without Young, the Hawks are going to look more like a solid ACC squad than an actual NBA team.
Thus far, the Nuggets look like they’re sleepwalking into the season. Denver is 22nd in scoring but sixth in scoring defense, making them look a more flashy version of the Jazz. Actually, that’s an insult to Utah since the Nuggets are dead last in pace at 96.1.
Look, I heart Nikola Jokic like the next DFSer, but looking at them on Tuesday made me feel like I was watching a game in the late 1990s (ie, the apex of the NBA’s “Dead Ball” era). I won’t have to worry about that since the Nuggets will sit him out tonight. That means lots of Mason Plumlee, and I would be in.
Since this is a three-game slate, I suppose we have to consider some Nuggets. I like Jamaal Murray as the best option to play, and I do feel good about Paul Millsap. Both are moderately priced and you figure the Nuggets will get their offensive act together. Will Barton is also a nice play here now that he’s grabbing boards to go along with his offense.
Putting it Bluntly: Jokic will break out. It just won’t be tonight.
That the Pelicans are 28th in defensive rating should be encouraging to run with the Nuggets tonight, but New Orleans is also fourth in pace, so the bet here is that they will make the Nuggets dance to their beat. They’ll have Jrue Holiday back in the lineup after he missed the past two games, but it’s doubtful Derrick Favors will go tonight with a sore right knee.
Brandon Ingram is going to be a star, and his first four games are showing why I think that. Freed from the circus in LA, he’s also in a system that’s allowing his skills to manifest. He’s not quite an every game add, but I’ll want him in the bulk of my lineups tonight. This is also a good play for Lonzo Ball, as he and Jamaal Murray will make this fun if the pace is in favor of the Pelicans. Josh Hart returns to the bench after filling in for Holiday the past two games.
I’d really love to see more Jaxon Hayes, who looked impressive in his only game played. May not happen tonight, but he’s got some interesting tools I’d love to see more of.
Putting it Bluntly: Play Ingram. I really hope the Pelicans make the Nuggets get out of their comfort zone and make them play a more uptempo style.
Fifth in offensive rating, the Spurs are also seventh in pace. This is a well-balanced team SA has put together, one that has a pair of big guns to bolster a DFS roster along with a handful of players that can be productive in nights where there is a short slate of games. Lookie here, tonight is one of those nights.
LaMarcus Aldridge is 34, but looks like a 27-year-old with the way he’s playing thus far. I’d certainly want him tonight. DeMar DeRozan has looked like DeMar DeRozan over the past couple of games, but the player to grab is Dejounte Murray. Injuries have limited him early in his career, but we’re starting to see why the Spurs had no problem letting the door split on Tony Parker when he left last year. Murray is hitting near 30 in PER with a usage rate of 29. His strong start isn’t a fluke. This is a future All-Star.
Jakob Poeltl serves his purpose. He’s nasty, physical and has a nice R/40 rate. However, Trey Lyles would be a better fit for the offense. That a player with freakish talent like Lyles has yet to get a legit shot is beyond me. Place him on a slag team and Lyles would be getting 28-30% usage. Rudy Gay is just Rudy Gay: solid and damn unappreciated. Bryn Forbes is also an interesting play here.
Putting it Bluntly: I smell some stacking here.
Since Kawhi Leonard sat out on Wednesday, he’ll be more than ready to take on his old team tonight. Only the Rockets have a better offensive rating than the Clippers, but they are 25th in defensive rating. The Clippers run a slower pace than the Spurs, as they are 19th compared to San Antonio’s seventh-place spot in the category.
Lou Williams is scoring at nearly 23 points per game without playing more than 29 minutes per night. Montrezl Harrell got into foul trouble in Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz, playing only 14 minutes. There’s some gold in Ivica Zubac, but we’re not going to so long as he and Harrell are sharing minutes at the 5. JaMychal Green looked solid on Wednesday, but won’t be much of a factor with Leonard in the lineup.
Patrick Patterson, Landry Shamet and Patrick Beverley are each below 10 in PER. That’s unnerving when 3/5ths of your lineup is playing at the level of a back of the bench player.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Leonard’s show. The bench is actually carrying the Clippers, though.
Goran Dragic — Averaging 19.3 points per game off the bench, Dragic is looking like the Eastern Conference version of Lou Williams.
Jabari Parker — He’s managing just 2.8 rebounds per game, but Parker will be needed to help fill the void left by the injury to Trae Young. That will mean more minutes off the bench.
Verdict — Take the under on Dragic, but take the over on Parker.
The 10/28 NBA DFS Game Previews looks at each of the 11 games on Monday’s slate. We’ll also break off a Monkey Knife Fight prop to get you on the way toward making some long green tonight.
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PG/SG Zach LaVine ($7,700 DraftKings) and PF/C Lauri Markkanen ($7,700 DK) are averaging 38.4 and 37.9 DKP. If you like pairings, this will be one of Monday’s best. PF/C Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,000 DK) is battling an injured thumb but is expected to start. PG/SG Colby White ($5,000 DK) is averaging 29.4 DKP but might be the boom-bust on the roster.
Knicks PF/C Mitchell Robinson ($5,600 DK) is still hobbled with a sprained ankle, so I would avoid him until he’s closer to 100 percent. The upside is not there at this point. In his stead, PF/C Julius Randle ($8,300 DK) is the best front court play. PG/SG R.J. Barrett ($6,100 DK) is better than advertised and is worth considering, especially if you’re playing the early games. Stay away from SF/PF Marcus Morris ($5,300 DK) and PF/C Bobby Portis ($5,400 DK).
PG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,600 FanDuel) comes off a 53.4 FDP performance on Saturday and continues to be the one Pacer assured of rewarding 10/28 NBA DFS users. He leads the league in assists (10.5 APG) while shooting nearly 55 percent from the field. Both PF Domantas Sabonis ($7,900 FD) and C Myles Turner ($7,600 FD) are coming off poor (for them) efforts in Saturday’s loss to the Cavaliers. I’d bet on Sabonis as the better bounce back since Turner will have his hands full with Pistons C Andre Drummond ($10,300 FD). SF T.J. Warren ($5,100 FD) is off to a brutal start, averaging less than 13 FDP.
Drummond’s 15.7 rebounds per game leads the league. While that’s not a shock, the fact he’s shooting 61.7 percent from the free throw line is, which is adding about 4-6 points per game to his scoring. SG Derrick Rose ($6,500 FD) exploded for 48.3 FDP against the Sixers on Saturday. He’s perhaps the only other Pistons player worth serious consideration, as SF Luke Kennard ($4,900 FD) has grossly declined since putting up 35.3 FDP in the season opener.
No surprise that C Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 DK) is the top 10/28 NBA DFS option in the Magic lineup, averaging 38 DKP. He’s 1-for-9 from 3-point range this season (please stop, Nikola). SG/SF Evan Fournier ($5,000 DK) is quietly dependable and trails only Vucevic in usage, so he’s got some sleeper potential. SF/PF Aaron Gordon ($6,200 DK) is shooting just 33 percent from the field and is best left alone until he finds his shot. SF/PF Jonathan Isaac ($5,300 DK) offers blocked shots and boards, but — like Gordon — is struggling to find his offense, not a good play for 10/28 NBA DFS.
It’s too early to tell if PF/C Pascal Siakam ($8,700 DK) is truly a 48.5 DKP per game scorer, yet his usage and 28.7 points per game indicates the Raptors are going to make him the focal point of the offense. Regardless, PG Kyle Lowry ($7,300 DK) is going to get his 42.2 DKP even when his shot is erratic. This is a good matchup to plug in PG/SG Fred VanVleet ($6,300 DK), who bounced back from Friday’s poor effort against the Celtics with a respectful 32 DKP on Saturday. SF/PF OG Anunoby ($4,900 DK) has a chance to break out with a solid outing against a Magic defense that is playing above expectations by allowing 96.5 points per game.
C Joel Embiid ($10,500 FD) is a gametime decision, but, considering this is the Hawks, he’s worth avoiding tonight. Be all-in on SF Tobias Harris ($7,800 FD) if Embiid is indeed sidelined. Harris is averaging 41.25 FDP by averaging 22 points and 11 boards per night thus far. PG Ben Simmons ($9,700 FD) is producing 45.95 FDP; his turnovers are made up for by the fact he leads the league with 3.5 steals per game. PF Al Horford ($6,900 FD) also benefits greatly if Embiid is out.
PG Trae Young ($9,400 FD) leads the league with 38.5 points per game and is adding nine assists per night as well. He’s something of a bargain considering the caliber of PGs on tonight’s slate. PF John Collins ($8,000 FD) is a stat stuffer who is also averaging 1.5 blocks per game but could have his hands full if Embiid is in the lineup. Beyond perhaps SF DeAndre’ Bembry ($4,100 FD), there’s little else to get excited about when it comes to the Hawks’ DFS options.
You know it’s uncertainty with the Cavs when C Tristan Thompson ($6,300 DK) is the best DFS option based on Fantasy points per game. That said, don’t be fast to add him as this matchup should bring him down to earth. PF/C Kevin Love ($8,400 DK) looks like the version of Love in Minnesota, putting up 48.1 DKP. Health is always the issue with him, but he’s worth consideration tonight. Don’t count on tonight being the breakout for SF/PF Cedi Osman ($4,800 DK), who is averaging just 13 DKP.
Only an extra assist kept SF/PF Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600 DK) from becoming the fourth player ever to open the season with consecutive triple doubles. He’s my anchor in tonight’s DK lineup. SG/SF Khris Middleton ($7,200 DK) scored 37 points in Saturday’s OT loss to the Heat. He’ll be a good pairing as the two of them will suck up most of the Bucks’ usage rate. C Brook Lopez ($5,200 DK) is scoring 26.4 DKP despite a poor start from the field. PG Eric Bledsoe ($6,000) looks like he’s past his injured ribs, making him a sleeper going against Cleveland’s young and inexperienced point guards.
Thunder SG Shai Gilegeous-Alexander ($7,900 FD) would be the one player on the OKC roster to add to your NBA DFS lineup. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 42.03 FDP and will be more than up for the matchup against Rockets Gs James Harden and Russell Westbrook. This is also a favorable matchup for SF Danilo Gallinari ($7,100 FD). Of course, the attention will be on PG Chris Paul ($7,600 FD), who is off to a slow start entering his first game against the Rockets since being traded for Westbrook during the summer. SG Dennis Schroder ($4,600 FD) is sneaky good, especially if this game becomes a high-scoring affair.
Harden ($11,100 FD) is averaging 41.84 FDP, more than 17 less than Westbrook ($10,900) is producing in his first two games in Houston. Saving is saving, so keep $200 and run with Westbrook at the point. C Clint Capela is averaging 2.5 blocks per game, and at $8,400 at FanDuel, he’s more of a value compared to the likes of Drummond and Embiid for 10/28 NBA DFS. SF Danuel House ($4,100) is a sleeper who could quietly put up 33-35 FDP tonight.
PG/SG Stephen Curry ($9,500 DK) is the only reliable option on the Warriors roster these days. Get used to hearing this phrase often. We knew regression was coming, but, damn. They’ve taken a pair of beatdowns. PF/C Marquese Chriss ($3,200 DK) had 25.5 DKP in Sunday’s loss and might actually be the second-best option on the roster. PF/C Draymond Green ($7,100 DK) is battling an elbow contusion but will be available. SF/PF Eric Paschall ($3,200 DK) might be worth a look to see if there’s some long term value.
SF/PF Brandon Ingram ($7,500 DK) is putting up 50.3 DKP, including a 63.25 performance in Saturday’s overtime loss to the Rockets. PG Lonzo Ball ($6,300 DK) is improving and is a borderline good option. I could see a stack with Ingram and Ball against the overwhelmed Warriors. SG/SF Josh Hart ($4,800 DK) is under the radar and is an option for 3-player stack.
PG Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD) is averaging 48.79 FDP and should be strongly considered. C Hassan Whiteside ($8,300 FD) got hit with foul trouble on Saturday, perhaps the one thing that can slow down his strong start with the Trail Blazers. SG C.J. McCollum ($6,200 FD) finally broke out with 52.3 FDP in Sunday’s win over the Mavericks and can be plugged in a pairing with Lillard. PF Zach Collins ($4,900 FD) dislocated his shoulder on Sunday and will be out indefinitely.
SG DeMar DeRozan ($7,900 FD) tallied 43.3 FDP in Saturday’s win. PF LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200 FD) added 45.5 FDP, so all looks well in San Antonio. The player to grab, however, is PG Dejounte Murray ($7,000 FD) who looks like a value play and is showing signs of a potential breakout now that’s he’s finally healthy. C Jakob Poeltl ($4,800 FD) could be a cheap source of rebounding as he won’t have any qualms battling Whiteside in the paint.
If you want to pay top dollar for a big man, then run with C Nikola Jokic ($9,600 DK). Jokic is averaging 54.3 DKP thus far without truly putting his total arsenal on display. This could happen tonight against a thin Kings front court. PG/SG Jamaal Murray ($6,500 DK) comes off a 43.75 DKP in Friday’s gritty overtime win over the Suns. SG/SF Will Barton ($5,300 DK) is too scoring-dependent to be counted out. PF Paul Millsap ($5,300 DK) is off to a slow start, but it’s Jokic and Murray when it comes to DFS.
The Kings are struggling to offer DFS value. PF/C Marvin Bagley III is out at least until late November and PG De’Aaron Fox ($7,300 DK) has had two bad outings mixed in with one brilliant performance. I’d wait on Fox to give me more consistency before investing in him. SG/SF Buddy Hield ($6,000 DK) is the only other Kings player putting up better than 24 DKP per game, leaving the rest of the roster a jumbled band of confusion worth avoiding.
The risk of running out C Rudy Gobert ($9,000 FD) is that he could see limited minutes similar to what happened in Saturday’s blowout of the Kings. His FDP per game is low for now, but you know he’s got a monster run coming soon. For now, keep running with SG Donovan Mitchell ($8,600 FD) and his 40.86 FDP. SF Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,600 FD) might be the only other Jazz player worth considering tonight.
Right now, I’m liking SF Kelly Oubre Jr ($6,900 FD) more than SG Devin Booker ($9,100) for more than just 10/28 NBA DFS value. Oubre looks made for this style of play and we’re seeing why there was no need to give up on him. Both he and Booker will carry the load with C Deandre Ayton suspended. PG Ricky Rubio (7,000 FD) is a game time decision with his knee. If he’s out, then look for PF Frank Kaminsky ($5,200 FD) to get a boost in usage rate, which translates to sleeper status.
C Cody Zeller ($5,800 DK) blew up for 52 DKP on Sunday and could carry that value over into tonight. PF/C P.J. Washington ($6,600 DK) and SF/PF Miles Bridges ($6,300 DK) are too risky for consideration tonight. I would consider PG/SG Devonte’ Graham ($4,800 DK) as a possible sleeper.
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard ($9,200 DK) is worth the steep price as he’s off to a strong stat stuffing start. The best options outside of Leonard reside on the Clippers bench as both PF/C Montrezl Harrell ($6,400 DK) and PG/SG Lou Williams ($7,100 DK) are both hitting 35 DKP per game.
Damian Lillard — Off to a solid start, Lillard will have the green light to fire away all night.
DeMar DeRozan — Averaging 19.5 points per game thus far, DeRozan is capable of lighting it up any given night.
Verdict — Take Lillard.
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