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Sacramento Kings

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/19

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As we approach the holiday period, many players will be sitting out games. It is common for NBA teams to make sure their key contributors are rested heading into the new year. Thus, new rotations will be key in elite game environments. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Orlando Magic (+6.5)

Despite numerous injuries, the Magic have reeled off six straight wins. No Orlando player has been as impressive as the #1 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft, Paolo Banchero. Over his last seven games, Banchero has scored 20 or more points in each one. Moreover, he has averaged 22.4/7.4/4.6 on 41.3% shooting. During that same stretch, he has also led the team in both usage rate and minutes played per game. With the Hawks currently ranked 26th in the league against power forwards and 27th in points allowed in the paint, Banchero has massive upside in this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Exposure to the Hawks offense remains to be seen, depending on their final injury report. After missing multiple weeks, both John Collins (ankle) and Dejounte Murray (ankle) are questionable to make their returns to the lineup. Should both miss this game, there are options all over the pricing grid. At the top, Trae Young gets a friendly matchup versus a Magic defense that ranks 24th in the NBA in defensive rating, while also ranking 20th against primary ball handlers. Moreover, the duo of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Onyeka Okongwu figure to be popular options if both Collins and Murray miss another game. Over his last four games, Bogdanovic has averaged 26/5.8/2.8 on 54.4% shooting, including 54.8% from deep on over ten attempts per night. On the other hand, Okongwu will continue to fill in at the ‘5’ for Clint Capela, who remains out.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (OTB)

Portland Trail Blazers (OTB)

While most will avoid the Blazers tonight versus a shorthanded Thunder roster, it’s the wrong approach. There is certainly a possibility that this game gets out of hand given the injuries to OKC’s two best players. However, they just pulled off a victory against the Grizzlies with this same rotation. Even with Morant getting tossed after 16 minutes of that game, it’s an impressive victory nonetheless. If you want to play Lillard at the top of the pricing grid tonight, I won’t talk you off of it. But with Lu Dort lining up on him, Simons and Nurkic are in better spots. The Thunder rank 27th in the NBA against true centers, while struggling versus off-ball guards as well. This rotation is risky but makes for an intriguing tournament play.

Oklahoma City Thunder (OTB)

This rotation will be one of, if not the most popular one on the entire NBA slate. Both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey have been ruled out for a second straight game. Thus, there are plenty of viable options. Of the players of interest, pick your poison with any combination of Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and/or Aleksej Pokusevski. The four not only figure to play the bulk of minutes, but are in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings (-8.5)

Charlotte Hornets (+8.5)

Since making his return to the lineup, LaMelo Ball has looked great. Despite the concerns around his efficiency, he has still shot 50% from the field in his two games played since returning. During that span, Ball has logged 33 and 34 minutes, leaving no concern for any restrictions. Moreover, he has averaged 25/1.5/7 on 50% shooting, including 46.2% from deep on a whopping 13 attempts per night. With the Kings ranked 6th in the NBA in pace, this game environment is meant for Ball.

Sacramento Kings (-8.5)

Despite a lofty spread on this game, the Kings offense is in the best spot on the NBA slate. The Hornets currently rank 13th in pace, while being 27th in defensive rating. As expected, the main contributors of interest are De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. However, the latter figures to be one of, if not my favorite play of the slate at the top of the pricing grid. In his last six games, Sabonis has scored 20 or more points in five appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 21.2/14.2/6 on 71.2% shooting during that stretch. The Hornets have always been a frontcourt to pick on, and they currently rank last in the league against centers, allowing over 60 fantasy points per game to the position.

Honorable Mentions:

Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans (OTB)
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets (-3.5)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/16

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

We’re a fourth into the NBA season and things are shaping up to be rather interesting heading into the holidays. Many teams are experiencing injuries, while others are picking up steam on both sides of the ball. Tonight, many elite game environments make this slate an intriguing one. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

Sacramento Kings (-4.5)

This is a prime spot for the Kings’ duo of stars. Both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox find themselves in elite matchups at their respective positions. For one, the Pistons rank 29th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint and 25th in defensive rebounding. Over his last five games, Sabonis has scored 20 or more points in four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 20.8/14.4/5.8 on 69.6% shooting and has racked up 4.2 offensive rebounds during the same span. De’Aaron Fox has been volatile as of late, only scoring 20 points once in his last seven appearances. However, his point/dollar upside in an elite game environment makes him an intriguing play for tournaments.

Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

The Pistons offense has many opportunities given the absence of Cade Cunningham. In 18 games since Cunningham last played, Bojan Bogdanovic has been carrying this offense. During that span, he leads the team with a 27.3% usage rate and has averaged 22.4/4.1/2.9 on 51.4% shooting, including 41.1% from deep. Sacramento ranks 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed on over 11 makes per game. Moreover, there is value to be had with both Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, despite the tough matchup for the latter against Sabonis.

Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)

Golden State Warriors (+7.5)

Welcome to the most popular rotation in NBA DFS over the next month. Unfortunately, Steph Curry will be sidelined for the next month or so after leaving last game with a shoulder injury. Thus, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will carry this offense. On the season, Poole and Thompson have usage rates of 28.2% and 25.6%, respectively, while posting 1.03 and 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with Curry off the floor, Poole takes a significant leap. In over 400 minutes played without Curry on the floor, Poole sees an increase to 1.14 fantasy points per minute through a 35.3% usage rate. However, Thompson sees dips in both. If you think Golden State keeps this one close, Poole is your guy, albeit being one of, if not the most popular player on the NBA slate.

Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)

This is a tricky spot for the 76ers. On one hand, this game can get out of hand quickly. However, blowouts simply cannot be predicted. Thus, there is a strong chance that Joel Embiid or James Harden lead the NBA slate in scoring. Golden State currently leads the league in pace while ranking 19th in defensive rating. Moreover, they have struggled to guard primary ball handlers, ranking 24th in the NBA. Over his last three games, Harden has averaged a whopping 22.7/6.7/14.3 on 50% shooting, including 43.5% from behind the arc. This only thing stopping Harden from dominating tonight is Joel Embiid and his love for getting to the free throw line.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)

This game is riddled with questionable tags for both injury reports. However, there is plenty of intrigue. Should he make his return after missing last game, D’Angelo Russell makes for an excellent tournament play. Over his last 10 games, Russell has averaged 21.4/2.8/6.6 on 52.3% shooting, including 40.5% from deep. Moreover, there could be value in the frontcourt, should Rudy Gobert be unavailable. Should this be the case, Naz Reid will instantly become one of the best values on the NBA slate and one of the most popular options in the field.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Similarly to above, should Rudy Gobert miss this game, value is here with Darius Bazley. With Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out for a few weeks, Bazley filled in at center, logging 31 minutes against Miami and posting a 12/5/2/1/1 scoring line in a tough matchup. Moreover, if Gobert plays, this game instantly becomes more competitive. Thus, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a tremendous spot. With 23 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games, SGA has been on an absolute tear. During that span, he has averaged 31.4/4.8/6.1 on 48% shooting. Minnesota ranks 29th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, setting the stage for SGA to potentially lead the slate in scoring.

Honorable Mentions:

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (+1.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/23

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are many elite game environments and plenty of stars on this NBA slate. Unfortunately, some have already been ruled out and will be missing in action. Injuries have derailed slates over the last few weeks, and tonight is no different. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

A single injury can alter an NBA slate. As has been the theme of the past few weeks, there hasn’t just been one, but many major injuries to monitor. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (+4.5)

I wrote up Shake Milton for yesterday’s NBA and the same applies on the second half of a back-to-back: “Although he figures to be one of, if not the most rostered player on the slate, it will be hard to avoid Shake Milton tonight. Over his last two games, Milton has a 25.5% usage rate. Moreover, he has posted a 21/4.5/4 scoring line on 59.3% shooting, including 44.4% from deep.” With Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey still out for the 76ers, Milton is as close to a free square as it gets.

Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

In the absence of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier will carry this offense. However, with stronger intrigue for other guards on the NBA slate, I cannot find a spot for him in my NBA lineups. Thus, I’ll be looking at Kelly Oubre Jr. and PJ Washington. Now, you don’t have to force exposure to this offense. Rather, the two make for low rostered plays to get different. In their last two games since Ball reaggravated his injury, it is Oubre Jr., not Rozier, who leads the team in usage rate at 27.8%. Moreover, Oubre Jr. has posted a remarkable 28.5 points per game on 53.7% shooting in his last two appearances. Not only has Oubre Jr. been outperforming Rozier, but it is PJ Washington, not Rozier, who is second on the team in scoring in their last two. With the 76ers being forced to roll out a small lineup in the absence of Embiid, Washington will have ample opportunity in the paint.

Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Sacramento Kings (+6.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth between two elite offenses, this is the game for you. Turning heads in November, the Kings have been one of, if not the best team in the NBA lately. Not only do they currently have the #1 ranked offense, but they have a formidable duo in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis complemented with elite shooting. If you have been following over the past few years, you already know how I feel about both Fox and Sabonis. Rather than writing them both up once again, I’ll emphasize what Kevin Huerter brings to this offense. Sporting an 18.6% usage rate on the season, Huerter has posted a 16.6/2.9/3.5 scoring line on 50% shooting. Moreover, he has the seventh best three-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 49.5%. A tough matchup looms on the perimeter, but this offense is scorching.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Despite the Hawks cooling off after starting their season with a 4-1 record, Trae Young has been heating up. For the eighth consecutive contest, Young posted 20 or more points versus the Cavaliers. During that span, Young has a team-leading 33.3% usage rate and has posted a 25.9/3/9.6 scoring line on 42.1% shooting. While the Kings have greatly improved their team defense, they can still be beaten by primary ball handlers, allowing over 26 points and 8 assists per 36 minutes. Enter Young, who is one of the best to do it in today’s NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (+6.5)

Lengthly injuries is once again costing the Clippers. It only gets worse, as both Kawhi Leonard (ankle) and Paul George (hamstring) are set to miss tonight’s game. As a result, this is going to be one of the most interesting rotations on the NBA slate. There are different ways to get exposure here, depending on how the rest of your lineup shakes out. Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac figure to carry the bulk of the offensive looks in the starting lineup. The two are both averaging approximately 33 minutes per game over their last three. Moreover, Jackson has posted a 23.3/3/3.7 scoring line on 58.1% shooting during that span, while Zubac has the better matchup of the two with Golden State ranked 26th versus centers. If you want scoring power off the bench, both John Wall and Norman Powell are elite options on the slate as well.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Amidst early season troubles, the Warriors seem to have their groove on offense. With the majority of their starters having rested last game, Golden State figures to be back at full strength tonight. Thus, there is a lot of firepower here between two Western Conference title contenders. In a matchup against the Clippers, the Splash Brothers will once again be at the focal point of the offense. Klay Thompson is coming off a season-high 41 points, making 10 of 13 three-pointers against the Rockets. Moreover, Steph Curry made seven three-pointers of his own, posting a 33/6/15 scoring line on 55% shooting. Sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season, Curry has been posting better numbers than his unanimous MVP season, making him one of the best plays on the NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5)
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/22

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Only eight teams take the court tonight but there is plenty of intrigue. Not only have multiple stars been ruled out, but NBA teams are dealing with a plethora of injuries. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

There has already been plenty to notice on injury reports. Moreover, key players may be unavailable in addition to those already ruled out. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Brooklyn Nets

With how shorthanded the 76ers are tonight, I will not be playing Kevin Durant nor Kyrie Irving. Rather, it is the return of Ben Simmons to Philadelphia that peaks my interest. Now, this can go one of two ways. Either he makes a statement or flops. At the time of writing, I’m leaning toward the former. In his last two games, Simmons has a modest usage rate of 18.3% but has been efficient at the center position. Averaging 18.5/10.5/6 on 89.5% shooting, his field goal attempts have been low, but are right near the basket. In the absence of Joel Embiid, it is Ben Simmons that has the most to prove tonight in a phenomenal individual matchup.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers rotation will be the most popular on the NBA slate. Not only does James Harden remain out with a foot injury, but Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have also been ruled out. Thus, the offense will belong to Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Shake Milton. Moreover, PJ Tucker and Georges Niang are looking at heavy minutes in the frontcourt. Although he figures to be one of, if not the most rostered player on the slate, it will be hard to avoid Shake Milton tonight. Over his last two games, Milton has a 25.5% usage rate. Moreover, he has posted a 21/4.5/4 scoring line on 59.3% shooting, including 44.4% from deep.

Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies

Sacramento Kings

November has been awfully kind to the Sacramento Kings. Not only are they currently 9-6 and holding down the 5th seed in the Western Conference, but they have been one of the best teams in the NBA lately. This month, the Kings are first in offensive rating and points per game, second in net rating and assists per game, and have the third best record in the league. Recently, De’Aaron Fox has been named Player of the Week and the Kings are now riding a six-game winning streak. Over that span, Fox has a team-leading 26.9% usage rate, resulting in a 24/4/8.7 scoring line on 57.7% shooting. With the Grizzlies ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and struggling to contain primary ball handlers, Fox has a legitimate shot at leading the slate in scoring.

Memphis Grizzlies

With Ja Morant listed as doubtful tonight, both he and Desmond Bane figure to be on the sidelines. Thus, the offense will fall to Tyus Jones, John Konchar, Dillon Brooks, and Jaren Jackson Jr. However, due to recency bias in their latest game, the latter figures to be overlooked. In a mere two appearances this season after returning from a severe foot injury, Jackson Jr. has been efficient. Both of his games played came with Desmond Bane out of the lineup, but Ja Morant was playing. The reason I mention this is because, with Morant leading the team in usage rate in those games, Jackson Jr. is in line to do so tonight. In only 25 minutes per game, JJJ has posted a 16/9 scoring line on 33.33% shooting. Against a Sacramento defense that ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies are in a great spot tonight.

Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Another team dealing with multiple injuries is the rebuilding Pistons. Cade Cunningham remains out with a leg injury, while both Isaiah Stewart (toe) and Saddiq Bey (ankle) have also been ruled out for tonight. The duo of Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic will lead the offense in the starting lineup, while Jalen Duren and Alec Burks will lead the bench unit. The former duo figures to be much more popular, but do not overlook the latter. In back-to-back games, both Duren and Burks have eclipsed 20 minutes. As a result, the have combined for 31.5 points per game. Moreover, despite not starting, Burks leads the team in usage rate over the last two games, while Duren leads the team in rebounds. On a small NBA slate, this game screams value.

Denver Nuggets

If you have played any NBA slate as of late, you already know the drill. The Nuggets have listed both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as doubtful tonight, meaning the team is not expecting either star to make a return to the lineup. Additionally, Jeff Green has been ruled out, while Aaron Gordon is at jeopardy of missing a fourth consecutive game. Thus, the Nuggets rotation will be on interest, should any combination of these players miss tonight’s game. No need to overthink this one: Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DeAndre Jordan, and Michael Porter Jr. should be in your player pool.

Honorable Mention:

Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/17

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Tonight’s NBA slate is one of the oddest the season has to offer. Not only are there only six teams in action, but all three games tipoff at 10pm EST. There are elite studs at the top of the pricing grid, while two of three games stick out above the other. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only three games on the schedule tonight, a single injury can alter the outlook of the slate. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

If you are looking to build a more balanced lineup for tonight’s NBA slate, there are two Spurs to monitor. With the Kings ranked 28th in the NBA to wings, the duo of Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are once again at the forefront. While I have been fond of Vassell’s game since his draft year, his point/dollar upside is limited given his reliance on scoring. Therefore, I prefer to target Keldon Johnson in this game. Leading the team with a 27.7% usage rate, Johnson is having a breakout campaign. Amidst the departure of Dejounte Murray in the offseason, Johnson has taken his offensive game to new heights. Not only is Johnson averaging a career high in points, but his efficiency has greatly improved. His 16.9 field goal attempts per game is also a career high, while still shooting 45.1% from the field. Moreover, Johnson is averaging nearly nine three-point attempts per game while shooting 42.3% from deep.

Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

Since I’ll be turning to the top of the pricing grid in the next game, I’ll recommend the Kings’ role players in this spot. The key to this will be the availability of Keegan Murray. The rookie left last game with a back injury and did not return. Should he be forced to miss tonight’s game, there are a trio of options to us. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Terence Davis will all see increased time should Murray sit out. While the field will likely chase Davis’ 31-point outburst from last game, this is a prime spot for Kevin Huerter. Huerter has now made four or more three-pointers in his last three games, shooting 52.6% from deep and is in a great matchup. The Spurs currently rank last in the NBA versus off-ball spot-up shooters. Moreover, the Spurs rank 29th in three-point percentage allowed and 22nd in three-pointers made per game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+2.5)

After an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Kings on Tuesday, the Nets’ week has been filled with drama. Not only did the Nets get humiliated on the road, but Kevin Durant later questioned the talent of the team’s roster in a press conference. Considering Durant has never held anything back in the media before, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. However, he needs to come out and dominate this game more so than ever now. Despite the hefty price tag, there is no better bet than Durant leading the NBA slate in scoring. Whether he is optimal remains to be seen, but having the slate’s leading scorer in your lineups is never a bad thing. Simply put, there is no one on the Trail Blazers that can guard Durant.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth in the best game on the NBA slate, Damian Lillard is an elite target. However, rostering both he and Durant severely limits your options with the remaining spots in your lineup. Thus, I want to highlight the duo of Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons. Specifically, the former has been on a tear lately. Sporting a 27.4% usage rate during their last three games, Grant has posted a 31/7.3/2.3 scoring line on 56.1% shooting. Moreover, he has scored 27 or more points in all three games. Likewise, Simons has been producing well also. Simons is no slouch either, sporting a 26.5% usage rate and carrying a 23.3/4.3/3.3 scoring line on 38.9% shooting during the same span. With Simons having attempted a whopping 34 three-point attempts in his last three games, including ten or more in all three appearances, he has the ability to drastically alter this slate. The Nets currently rank 28th in the league in three-point percentage allowed and allow 13.5 three-pointers made per contest, good for 27th in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

Detroit Pistons (+9)

Of the three games on tonight’s NBA schedule, this is far and away my least favorite. However, with Cade Cunningham set to miss a fourth consecutive game, there will be intrigue here. In the absence of Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic have led the the team in usage at 28.6% and 27%, respectively. While Bogdanovic has led the team in scoring during that stretch, it is Ivey who has a better matchup tonight. With the Clippers ranked 25th in the league versus primary ball handlers, this has been a matchup we’ve picked on for the longest time. Ivey has posted a 19/3.7/5 scoring line on 42.9% shooting in his last three without Cunningham, making him the preferred target in this one.

Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

As mentioned above, this is my least favorite game of the three on tonight’s NBA slate. Thus, I have little intrigue in the Clippers offense. However, what can shake things up is the availability of Paul George. The Clippers star is currently questionable with a hand injury. Considering this is the team’s third game in four days, there is a serious chance he sits out tonight. Should that be the case, John Wall is an elite target in the mid range. Currently second on the team in usage rate at 28.2%, Wall has been efficient with his time on the court. It has been five straight games where Wall has scored in double digits, posting a 13.6/3.4/5.6 scoring line on 42.6% shooting. Additionally, the Pistons currently rank last in the NBA against primary handlers.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/15

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite there being only fives games on the NBA schedule, there is no shortage of fire power. Marquee matchups between some of the league’s best dominate the headlines. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As we saw last night, injuries to key players alter your lineups drastically. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5)

With Desmond Bane (toe) doubtful to play tonight, Ja Morant will get as many offensive looks as he can handle. Due to an ankle injury, Morant missed Sunday’s game versus the Wizards, but the face of the franchise is set to make his return tonight. Leading the team with a 36% usage rate, Morant has posted a remarkable 28.8/6/7 scoring line on 48% shooting, including 41% from deep. Facing a Pelicans team that struggles versus primary ball handlers, Morant offers immense upside at the top of the pricing grid on this NBA slate.

New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5)

Since the acquisition of CJ McCollum last season, the Pelicans’ offense is as potent as ever. Ranking 9th in the NBA in offensive rating, there is a flurry of options here on any given night. However, this makes it tough to get exposure to key contributors in fantasy. I won’t force any exposure here, but as one of the elite game environments on a small slate, it is a favorable scenario. Thus, Brandon Ingram will certainly be in my player pool. Over his last five games, Ingram ranks second on the team in usage with a 26.3% rate, only behind Zion at 26.4%. Over the same span, Ingram has averaged over 20 points per game while shooting an efficient 44.6% from the field. With Bane doubtful to play tonight, Ingram will have a great matchup as the primary off ball options for the Pelicans.

New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz (-4)

New York Knicks (+4)

Having seen the Knicks allowed a whopping 145 points to the Thunder on the weekend, this game will likely draw attention on a small NBA slate. With Tom Thibodeau being as inconsistent as ever with his rotations, no player’s minutes are safe, other than Julius Randle. Unfortunately, he has a safe floor in fantasy, but carries a lower ceiling than the ideal for a player of his magnitude. Thus, don’t force any exposure here. Should you want to take a shot on a risky player for tournaments, there are many options here, including Cam Reddish and Jalen Brunson.

Utah Jazz (-4)

One of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season is none other than the Utah Jazz. This group of players seem determined to beat the preseason odds, and they’re currently doing so with a 10-5 record in the Western Conference. While Lauri Markkanen seems to be reaching the potential he was deemed to have at the time of his draft, I want to highlight Malik Beasley and his production as of late. Logging 29 or more minutes in four of his last five appearances, Beasley has now scored in double digits in five straight. Sporting an 18.1% usage rate during that span, Beasley has posted a 15.2/4.4/1.4 scoring line on 49.2% shooting, including 46.5% from behind the arc on a whopping 8.6 attempts per game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Sacramento Kings (-2)

Brooklyn Nets (+2)

Kevin Durant joins Luka Doncic and Ja Morant as the best options on this NBA slate. However, while you already know what Durant is capable of, there are other intriguing options on this offense. Listed as probable after missing Sunday’s game, Seth Curry will likely make his return to the lineup tonight. In his two games prior to Sunday, Curry posted a 22.5/3/2.5 scoring line on 57.1% shooting through a 26.9% usage rate. The Kings rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and struggle versus combo guards, making Curry an elite option in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Sacramento Kings (-2)

If you are looking to build a balanced lineup on tonight’s NBA slate rather than with a stud or two at the top of the pricing grid, look no further than De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The two have been on a tear since Sabonis was acquired in the Tyrese Haliburton deal last season. Over their last six games, Fox and Sabonis lead the team in usage rates at 29.4% and 25%, respectively. Moreover, the two have combined for 49.2 points per game, scoring 20 or more points each in four of five appearances. Brooklyn’s defense has improved over their last 5 games, but Nic Claxton still lacks the skillset to defend Domantas Sabonis on the inside, while De’Aaron Fox will dominate the Nets’ backcourt.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers (-7)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/31

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The first weeks of the NBA season have been wildly entertaining. While some teams are struggling in the early stages, others are quickly separating themselves from the pack. Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks put their perfect record on the line, while others look to keep pace in the East. The Western Conference teams have a ton of pending injury news, but shape up to be some of the best scenarios on the slate. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Despite the NBA season only being a few weeks old, injury/illness news has been altering slates. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Hornets (+1)

Sacramento Kings (-1)

No longer one of the winless teams in the NBA, the Kings look to string some momentum together against a thin rotation. With LaMelo Ball out and Terry Rozier doubtful, De’Aaron Fox will see Dennis Smith Jr. on the flipside of his matchup. Sitting 20th in the league against primary ball handlers, the Hornets will look to slow Fox down, which is a daunting task. The former Kentucky Wildcat is having a tremendous season to the tune of a 27.8/7.2/5.6 scoring line on 55% shooting. Scoring 26 or more in four of five games this season, with the outlier coming against Miami’s stingy defense, Fox is in a prime spot in an elite game environment.

Charlotte Hornets (+1)

Somehow sitting at 3-3, the Hornets are doing the best they can without LaMelo Ball to start the season. With wins against the Hawks and Warriors, Charlotte can go with the best of them. With the Kings sitting 26th in the NBA in defensive rating, their weakest point comes on the wing. Surprisingly, Harrison Barnes carries a net defensive rating of 119.1 into tonight’s game, which bodes well for Kelly Oubre Jr. Leading the Hornets in usage rate over the last four games in Rozier’s absence, Oubre Jr. has posted a 17.8/6/1.5 scoring line on a mere 37.5% shooting during that span. Taking 16 or more attempts in all four games, Oubre Jr. carries a low floor, but finds himself in a situation to have a great outing should his shot be dropping.

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets (-8)

Indiana Pacers (+8)

We talked about this game over the weekend in Discord and I’m going right back to the well. The return of Myles Turner to the lineup shifts things a bit, but Haliburton, Mathurin, and Smith remain firmly in play alongside the big man. However, I want to emphasize just how good Buddy Hield has been this season. Having a 21.5% usage rate as a spot-up shooter is impressive as is, but Hield is doing so much more than prior years on the offensive side of the ball. His 5.7 rebounds per game in the small sample size is a career high, while his shooting has been as good as ever. Sitting third in the NBA with 4.1 three pointers made per game, Hield has shot a ridiculous 44.6% from behind the arc on over nine attempts per contest.

Brooklyn Nets (-8)

It will be a recurring theme this NBA season when discussing the Nets, but there’s a handful of players that interest me on this offense, if that. Both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant dominate many of the looks on the offensive side of the ball, making it hard to look elsewhere. I’m certainly not forcing any exposure to this Nets team, but if you’re stacking this one, I’ll side with Durant. While he got off to a slow start last game, KD poured in 22 of his team’s 54 points in the second half. With the easiest matchup on the Nets, KD makes for an intriguing tournament play once again.

Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+3.5)

In order to beat Toronto’s defense, you need to be quicker than them both with the ball and off it. Players need to be in movement and the ball needs to be moved around the perimeter to the wings and corners. The Raptors excel at closing out on shooters and have great on-ball defense, making it tough for primary ball handlers to succeed. Rather, it’s the spot-up shooters and primary off-ball options who flourish in this matchup. Cue Dejounte Murray, who provides us with all around ability in this matchup. While his shooting is far from that of Trae Young, the former’s ability to rebound and dish the rock gives him a tremendous ceiling in any matchup.

Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

If you haven’t had a chance to watch Raptors basketball in recent years or this NBA season, please do. Not only are they fun to watch, but Toronto is one of the most feared teams on both sides of the basketball with their polarizing length at every position. Tonight, Pascal Siakam is the one I want to highlight. Leading the team with a 29.8% usage rate, Siakam has quietly posted a phenomenal 25.3/9.2/7.7 scoring line on 48.7% shooting. In a matchup versus the Hawks, Siakam and this Raptors offense will be a problem for their opposition’s defense in the transition game and on the inside. Seeing as though Clint Capela has yet to log over 30 minutes this season, Capela will likely be forced off the court early on in favor of Onyeka Okongwu, who has a defensive rating of 111.7 on the season, giving Siakam a favorable situation.

Honorable Mentions:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz (+4)
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers (-9.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/27

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After a big NBA slate yesterday, we’re back with eight teams in action tonight. Two of these game environments stand out above the rest, while the other two feature both injury news to follow and many star players. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

On smaller NBA slates, a single injury or minutes restriction can alter the outlook. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets (-1)

Dallas Mavericks (+1)

This NBA slate is loaded with elite options at the guard position, and it starts with Luka Doncic at the very top. Currently sitting 19th in the league against primary ball handlers, the Nets perimeter defense will get all it can handle with Doncic tonight. The MVP candidate comes into this game sporting a league-high 41.3% usage rate while posting a phenomenal 34.7/9/7.7 scoring line on 50% shooting. While he is far and away the most expensive player on the slate, no one carries the upside that Doncic does. We’ll need some value to make this work with a smaller player pool, so be sure to keep up with the news.

Brooklyn Nets (-1)

While Kyrie Irving is another example of an elite play at the guard position, there’s another Brooklyn Net that catches me eye. No, it is not Kevin Durant, as he does not fit my lineup structure at the time of writing. Rather, it will be Nic Claxton. I wrote him up on Monday and he came through with a 16/7 scoring line despite the early foul trouble. Claxton seems to have cemented his role, not only in the starting lineup, but throughout the game’s entirety. Logging 33 and 34 minutes in back-to-back contests, Claxton has now scored 13 or more points in all three games this season, recording two double-doubles in the process. With the Mavericks sitting 20th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, Claxton makes for a good midrange target in tournaments tonight.

LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+6.5)

LA Clippers (-6.5)

Despite Kawhi Leonard (knee) missing tonight’s game, the Clippers are planning to have Paul George (illness) back in the lineup. Thus, there is limited exposure I want here. Should George play in this one, one of few players I’d have interest in would be Ivica Zubac. While his minutes will fluctuate, Zubac will see extended run tonight in the absence of Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) from the lineup. Even with two games where he saw 24 or less minutes, Zubac has averaged 11.8 rebounds per game and gets to go up against a Thunder frontcourt that is seriously undermanned. With veterans Robert Covington, Nic Batum, and John Wall all being eased back into game shape, Zubac will be the main benefactor from the ball movement of this Clippers offense.

OKC Thunder (+6.5)

As if we didn’t have enough elite options at the guard position on this slate, cue Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, I’ll save you the trouble because I prefer the players discussed below. Rather, I’ll get my exposure to this Thunder offense in the form of SGA’s supporting cast. In the absence of Josh Giddey (ankle), yet another player from Monday’s article will be at the forefront of my focus. Tre Mann, despite SGA being active, looked tremendous on the offensive side of the ball. Pouring in 25 points on 41.7% shooting, Mann was no slouch next to the All-NBA talent. Rather, it was indeed Mann who led the team in shots, not SGA, while also sporting a 27.6% usage rate to SGA’s 29%. The two both logged 36 minutes, combining for 58 of the team’s 108 points in a landslide victory versus these same Clippers.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (+5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-5)

Although the guard position began with a Luka Doncic discussion, Ja Morant isn’t far off. Playing in the best game environment on a small NBA slate, Morant looks to take advantage of a turnover prone Sacramento offense. While the player below thrives in a fast-paced setting, so does Morant. His capability to push the pace and get the basket with ease will be on full display tonight. Now four games into the season, Morant has scored 20 or more points in every one, while posting a 35.3/4.3/7 scoring line on 54.8% shooting through a 35.9% usage rate.

Sacramento Kings (+5)

I surely hope he goes overlooked because of other guards on this slate because I’d love nothing more than to stack De’Aaron Fox with Ja Morant. My darkhorse for Most Improved Player of the Year, Fox finished last season on a torrid pace and has picked up right where he left off. Now three games into the campaign, Fox has scored 26 or more points in all three outings, including two 30-point performances. He sneakily has a 33.8% usage rate on the season, while posting a remarkable 31.7/5.7/7 scoring line on 59.4% shooting. While his counterpart, Ja Morant, makes for a great option on offense, he is a terrible defender. Thus, I plan on picking on Morant and his 122.6 net defensive rating with Fox.

Honorable Mention:

Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors (-7)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, February 23

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back to a Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots as we tackle this 9 game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings and outline our top picks and slate strategy!

Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 9 game slate there are a few key things that jump out including the fact that 7 of the 9 games are tipping off within the first hour of lock, which means we have minimal “late-swap” opportunity with only 2 games at the tail end of the night.

Secondly, we have a large slate and a ton of big-time injury news which likely means we have value open through the day. With Russell Westbrook on a B2B and questionable tags for all of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Harrison Barnes and Jeff Green – there is likely value awaiting us this evening.

I am sure you are all sitting here and waiting – this is Picks and Pivots after all – but how on Earth do you expect me to start anywhere else besides the Nets and Kings tonight?

We get an elite game environment with a slate leading 242 game total with two of the top 10 teams in pace and two of the bottom 4 defensive rated teams in the league. High total, fast pace, no defense – word to your mother.

No Defense in Brooklyn!

No matter how you carve up the metrics this season, the Nets and Kings are going to be common culprits in the high pace and no defense stats across the Association. In NBA DFS – we don’t just attack plays, we attack game environments and there is no better one to go all-in on tonight than this one in Brooklyn.

The Nets will remain without Kevin Durant tonight, and we cannot understate the importance of the Brooklyn injury report – as both TLC and Jeff Green are questionable to play. Brooklyn played one of the tightest rotations of the season against the Clippers last game out with essentially a 7 man rotation and that included Uncle Jeff with a whopping 34 minutes of court time. Take him off and well….you get the idea!

Let’s not bury the lede here- it all starts with James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.8K). Harden remains priced correctly for his role while Kyrie seems to be wildly under-priced every game – the truth is, I want both stars in this kind of game as it has the type of game script that gives them both paths to ceiling.

I also LOVE stacking both Brooklyn guards on slates this size because they tend to be overlooked when it comes to ownership. Adam, Ghost, and I talk about this all the time – but on slates where Kyrie and Harden seem like the obvious path, we tend to get news (looking at you Westbrook) that could push ownership away from them and we get to lock with Brooklyn studs at 10-15% ownership. This was the exact case on Sunday by the way when they played the Clippers. Nobody pays up for Kyrie and Harden despite the fact that they are arguably the best plays on the slate every time Durant remains out.

If Jeff Green is ultimately unable to play with a shoulder injury, De’Andre Jordan ($5.5K) is going to be tasked with all the minutes he can possibly handle. DJ played 32 minutes against the Clippers and dropped 43 DK points alongside Green – if Green is out, DJ is one of the best PP/$ plays on the slate – it is that simple.

The wing guys like Joe Harris ($5.7K) and Bruce Brown ($4.5K) become more fill-ins within a game stack that both have 30+ minute roles in this advantageous game script as well. In fact, the Kings rank 2nd to last in the NBA in 3P% allowed which could spell big trouble if they leave Joe Harris open on the perimeter as the defenses collapse on Harden and Kyrie.

The Nets side of this is likely the “easier” side to figure out – as the Kings rotations are far less predictable but if Harrison Barnes sits again, it could open up some clearer paths to attack Sacramento.

The best part about this Kings team on DraftKings is the pricing – only one player De’Aaron Fox ($8K) – sits above $6.5K on this slate – meaning you can largely stack this team around the pricey Brooklyn back-court without much issue.

Fox is the engine that makes this team move, but the DFS output has been largely muted in recent games. Fox has been held under 40 DK points now in 4 straight games but before that he had flashed the 50-60 DK point upside against Philly and the Clippers – and THAT is the kind of ceiling that we want for GPP’s. It is hard to argue there is a batter bounce back spot for Fox than this – in this kind of fast pace game against arguably the worst defensive back court in the league – if Fox is hitting a ceiling, this is the spot for it.

Speaking of ceiling spots – Richaun Holmes ($5.6K) gets the old – Centers against Nets match-up. The formula for Holmes is simple – it is all about minutes – if he gets 30+ minutes he smashes ceiling – if he plays 20-ish minutes, he gives you snowflakes. This game happened a week ago if you recall, a game that Holmes sat and Hassan Whiteside went looney tunes with 58 DK points off the bench. Centers against the Nets is a thing.

The Kings did not play yesterday, they have Brooklyn today and then 2 days off before they head across the city to take on the Knicks. If they are ever going to run Holmes, this is the kind of “long” road-trip that you would think Coach Walton would allow it.

Alongside Fox and Holmes, I love the idea of targeting one of Buddy Hield or Tyrese Haliburton at similar $6K price tags. Fox and Hield have a positive correlation, whereas Haliburton inversely correlates with Fox which in some ways – makes this decision quite easy for me. Hield is also shooting some serious volume right now – with back-to-back games with double-digit 3PA – however, struggling with inefficiency – making just 5 of the 21 3PA. If Hield is seeing that kind of volume here – the sky is the limit if he gets any sort of efficiency boost against the poor Nets defense.

If Barnes were to sit – keep an eye on DaQuan Jeffries ($3.8K) who got the start on Sunday and played a whopping 40 minutes on his way to 33 DK points. This was a massive outlier if you look at his recent games, but if hes getting that kind of run against Brooklyn for sub 4K its a worthy dice roll.

I am going to throw out a name here as a GPP dart – Jabari Parker ($3K). Yes – THAT Jabari Parker. Parker has seen his first run of the season the last two games, with 16 minutes of court time on Sunday being his season high. This is not a simple case of blowout run either – Parker checked in alongside Haliburton in the first quarter and got 10 minutes of run in the first half against the Bucks.

This is nothing more than speculation but Parker’s role is trending up while role players like Glenn Robinson III is away from the team. If Parker has seen his minutes go from 9 to 16 the last two games – if he gets 20 minutes at 3K against the Nets – hello value city.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have 9 games on this NBA DFS slate tonight and as a GPP player – I love that the pool is that big – because while the field looks at this vast player pool and chasing the “new news” – I am going to anchor to the best game on the slate.

The Nets/Kings game checks every box for DFS ceiling. High total (240+), with two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace and bottom 5 in defense. We get stars to build around in Kyrie, Harden and Fox and injuries that push the fringe players in this game into elite potential value plays. Stack it up. Stack it in. Let me begin.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, February 15

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy Monday my NBA DFS family and friends – we are back to the weekly NBA grind after a big weekend of sports and we kick it off with a strong seven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel to build around.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 7 game NBA DFS slate on Monday, you are likely going to notice something quite quickly – the injury tags that accompany most of the big name players in the pool.

With Kevin Durant, Victor Oladipo, and Mike Conley already ruled out and questionable tags for the likes of Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook – well, you start to see where this slate has the potential to end up.

If the news breaks the right way, you are going to get boatloads of value, with a clear select few stars to pay for and all the salary to do so as a result of the aforementioned value. Easy peasy kids.

One other thing that I think is a critical point tonight logistically – of the 7 games on this slate, 3 of them start from 7-7:30 PM EST while the remaining 4 all start at 9 PM EST or later. I bring that up because we may need to stay flexible with our builds to adjust for late night news.

Where do we start?

Let’s work our way chronologically tonight as we build our lineups – using the early game core plays first in our builds – locking them into specific spots in our DK builds (PG, SG etc versus G,F, UTIL) so that we can keep the flexibility for later in the evening.

The Rockets/Wizards game is going to be stop #1 as one of the premier game environments on the slate – a high total, fast pace and a ton of mid-range plays to choose from. Now tack on the fact we already know the Rockets are without Oladipo/Wood and the Wizards may sit Westbrook on the B2B – and well, it becomes an ideal PP/$ value spot.

At this point in the season, we know that much of the success as it relates to NBA DFS is taking advantage of price points that are not reflective of their roles. Bradley Beal ($8.9K) under $9K with Westbrook sidelined, is one of those spots.

Beal has played 6 games this season with Westbrook off the court, averaging 56 DK points per game (6.3x value at tonight’s price), and shooting the ball 26 times per game in those outings. To get this kind of consistent ceiling in similar game types, at a rare discount DFS price, makes this an easy building block tonight and one that ownership will not sway my decision making.

The other early game stop where we get a superstar at a discount is Damontas Sabonis ($9.1K) against the Chicago Bulls. Sabonis faced the Bulls earlier this season and dropped a 55 DK point triple-double and with the BUlls being

The next spot for stars moves to the final game of the night with the Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings.

Not only do we get to attack the Nets in a simplified manner with Durant sidelined, but we get to do so in a high pace game with two teams that rank among the 5 worst defensive teams in the league the last 15 games.

No Durant means all the James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($9K) and while Harden requires a premium to be paid, I would argue that Kyrie is much like Mr. Beal – far too cheap.

In the last three games that Durant has sat and Harden has played, Kyrie has put up 45, 50, and 58 DK points and none of those games were against defenses that rank as poorly as the Kings do tonight. As much as I love Harden here and I have no issue paying for him – Kyrie may be the better PP/$ play.

On the other side of this game, speaking of too cheap – De’Aaron Fox ($8.8K) – is the ideal run back on the Kings side of this game that can attack the worst part of the Nets defense statistically.

To me this five-man star core is where you start your builds tonight and jamming in four of these plays is a path that is easily achievable with the projected value we have.

Finding the value

The first big piece of news we need tonight is Joel Embiid – who will take on the Utah Jazz at 9 PM EST. If Embiid sits, it changes the entire slate and gives us a clear path to stars and scrubs and frankly, he is the reason I think you need to back load builds in the case we do not have his confirmation prior to 7 PM EST lock.

The last two games that Embiid sat – we saw Tony Bradley ($3K) get a big boost in minutes, playing 23 minutes off the bench and 17 minutes in a start against Indiana. Bradley dropped 25 DK points off the bench and got just 10 as a starter and let’s not act like this spot against Rudy Gobert is ideal – but at $3K, I do not ask questions. We talk about this all the time – but playing those punts allows me the path to the stars and that is what matters.

Dwight Howard ($3.6K) drew the start against the Pistons but actually did his best work off the bench against the Pacers second unit where he played 25 minutes and put up 35 DK points. If he comes off the bench, you could argue he gets the better spot against the Jazz second unit.

The fringe Sixers all get a nice boost here any time Embiid is out and the fact that Shake Milton is also sidelined adds to the appeal here. Matisse Thybulle ($3.1K) already has a 15-20 minute role with Embiid but we saw against the Pacers he played 25 minutes and racked up 25 DK points on the second unit.

It is always “easier” to focus on the punt starters and those guys tend to be the ones who draw the ownership, but do not overlook the secondary plays here like Thybulle who get essentially the same boost.

Now if the Sixers value does not materialize, remember we have pivots with 3 games starting after BUT do not just simply assume this value is “locked” and you need to keep your roster flexible.

For example – if you opt to use Sabonis – my recommendation is to use him at Center and then put Bradley/Howard at Utility. I say this because if you put Bradley/Howard at Center and then Embiid gets ruled in – you are going to be extremely limited in your pivot options at Center only at DK.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate to me is very clear – we need to anchor to four studs on a night where the value will dictate this kind of build. Assuming the stars sit as we outlined, you need to take a path of extreme Stars and Scrubs because those stars that remain can set the cash line on their own.

So go ahead and lock in four stars – grab the value we already have, adjust as we get more or “new” value, and most importantly – stay flexible with this slate being incredibly back-loaded.

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