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Prop Plays

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

What? Did you think MKF was going to end just because the NFL season is ending? Now that we have a handful of NBA games under our belt we have enough data to attack these slates. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving plays for NBA as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

The only thing Kyrie Irving has done since the Spencer Dinwiddie injury is average a usage rate of 32.46%, 21.75 shots per game, and just under 34 minutes a contest. In the first two games after the injury Kyrie was clearly trying to play hero ball and his FG% suffered as he continued to throw up bad shots. In his last two however he’s looked much more comfortable seeing an almost 20 point improvement on his field goals. Now you add in Durant missing the game tonight and the usage and shot count will be even higher against a 76’ers team with a 224 point implied total. Over

Colin Sexton on the other hand is the only offensive weapon Cleveland has with the exception of Drummond with around a 25.5% usage rate on 19 shots per game. Now he gets to go against one of the faster paced teams in Memphis without their best player in Ja Morant. Vegas seems to be adjusting to the loss of Ja finally with the implied total of only 210.5, but Memphis is only a 4 point favorite so Sexton should get his usual mid-upper 30’s in minutes. Over

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

We talked about the reasons for going with Kyrie above. The sheer usage he’ll get tonight leans me towards the over but with no Spencer or Durant I expect Brooklyn as a whole to struggle against Philly. In games where the 76ers feel comfortable with their lead they have no issues letting Joel Embiid take a breath and in those games he’s lucky to break 30 minutes. His usage rate also drops from around 33% to around 23% on average and he’s only exceeded 21 points once out of the four games where they carried a strong lead into the 4th.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Anthony Davis is dealing with an abductor strain so we all know what that means. Mr. Glass is notorious for sitting when dealing with almost any injury and the times he does go he leaves early half the time after aggravating the injury. If you take AD off the court Lebron James‘s usage rate jumps from 32.7% to 34% and he averages around 30 points per 48 minutes. He also has a limited sample against the Spurs themselves and has scored 26 points in each of the contests this season. Over

DeMar Derozan has also been extremely consistent in his limited sample against the Lakers this season scoring 23 points in each contest with a usage rate of around 22.5%. I am aware that in those two games LaMarcus Aldridge was not on the court but even with LMA on the court there is minimal impact in any substantial way to Derozan’s stats and even a slight uptick in usage and points per minute. Over

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It doesn’t seem to matter who Deshaun Watson is throwing the ball to now that Bill O’Brien isn’t their to neuter the offense. With no Will Fuller, all Watson does is throw for 340 yards against a tough Colts defense. Mitchell Trubisky is quite the opposite, he finds a way to largely underwhelm in whatever situation he finds himself. If Foles is active this week I wouldn’t be shocked to find him on the bench in the second half. In either situation I prefer Allen Robinson over Brandon Cooks. Cooks tends to struggle his historically when playing through injury and he’ll get matched up with CB Kyle Fuller which is no easy task when 100 percent. There is no such lock down option to slow down Robinson, he’s the no doubt target monster on Chicago, and he’s getting the bonus. Sign me up.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll keep this short. Aaron Rodgers has owned Detroit and there is no chance in hell I’m picking Marvin Jones or Matthew Stafford over him or Davante Adams even with bonus points.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nothing about Brandon Allen’s 150 yards per game for Cincinnati makes me thing an injured Tee Higgins is going to do much of anything this week. Sure he make get a few targets and hit that 55.5 number but nothing about this screams over on the Cincy side. On the other side we have ourselves a revenge narrative with the red rifle heading back to play his old Bengals team and we love to target there just about as much as 2lock likes birthday narratives. It’s not just that Dalton is running the revenge narrative though. He’s beginning to creep up to double digit targets for Ceedee Lamb throwing nine his way last week and with all of the troubles at offensive line for Dallas it would be in his best interest to make use of his slot receivers and tight ends more often going forward. Not that Cincy can put pressure on anyone but he needs to stick with what will keep him healthy down the stretch.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am only playing the numbers here, 323.5 is a big number even for a QB like Patrick Mahomes and I know people have a hard time believing this, but the Dolphins defense is no joke this season. Ever since they changed their scheme up in week three they’ve been a completely different monster on the defensive side of ball only allowing one 300 yard passing day since week 5. I know Mahomes is no normal QB but they may shake things up just a bit to make things interesting. Robby Anderson is gonna have no DJ Moore to soak up targets being on the reserve covid list and we’ve seen this Denver defense get shredded by everyone they’ve gone up against. On the DFS side of things I’m going to have a little more Curtis Samuel but 79.5 yards should not be a difficult number for Robby to reach today.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With the way Carson Wentz has been playing and the talks of Jaylen Hurts getting more involved in the Eagles offense I have no faith that Wentz with out pass Aaron Rodgers or even get within shouting distance. On the opposite side of things the Eagles are respectable in run defense and Matt Lafluer refuses to give Aaron Jones enough volume to surpass Miles Sanders and what should be a ground based attack where the Packers defense is at it’s weakest.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My expectation here is pretty straight forward, after a few weeks of injuries the Colts defense is getting back to normal so I don’t see the run game going anywhere for Houston so I don’t expect much from David Johnson. On the other hand Jonathon Taylor looks to finally be out of the dog house and played well against the Packers in his last game getting 22 carries for 90 yards and if the Colts are smart they’ll hide Phillip Rivers as much as possible going forward and Houston has such a soft run game it should be easy to do tomorrow. Deshaun Watson may have lost Will Fuller for the year but he still has Brandon Cooks, KeKe Coutee, a pair of capable tight ends, and two pass catching packs. The offense may change but he should still produce plenty in the air.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Gonna keep this super short, it is Derick Henry and Nick Chubb season and neither Ryan Tannehill or Baker Mayfield regularly exceed their respective 245.5 and 225.5 numbers on the best of days. I’m expecting this game to move quickly with both teams living on the ground.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Derek Carr might not get 150 yards in the air today. Nothing on him it’s just that the Raiders are very open about the fact they they play as slow of a tempo as humanly possible. They only pace up when they absolutely have to and it’s the Jets. He won’t have to. Kirk Cousins on the other hand has been surprisingly good these last several weeks throwing for at least 292 in each of the last three weeks and Mike Glennon showed himself capable enough to keep a game close against a week defense which Minnesota clearly is so Minnesota like won’t take the air out of the ball completely tomorrow. If for some reason Glennon Does struggle Gardner Minshew is ready to step in so I feel pretty good here.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

****I was originally going heavy with the Denver/New Orleans game but when the QB news dropped MKF decided to just pull the game altogether. Can’t really say I blame them.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Fun with overs to start the day! Two of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL against two of the weakest secondary units in the league, and neither team seems to care all that much with running the ball, and you’re giving me 290 yards passing with both Justin Herbert and Josh Allen? Yes please. Since we are looking at only needing two of three for a 1.8x return I’m probably going to lay a little extra on this one. I know we’re looking at 15mph wind in Buffalo but that’s not really something that worries me with strong arm QB’s who regularly exceed 300 yards through the air any given week.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It’s time people started taking the Raiders seriously. I know it’s Falcons (injured at that) but people are missing the boat here and have been all season. Although I don’t think it would be a problem no matter the health of Atlanta but **Matt Ryan** has struggled offensively whenever he doesn’t have his entire set of playmakers on the field so I’m truthfully just expecting a flat out dud by Ryan. On the other side of things the Falcons have been surprisingly stout in run stopping so we can have ourselves a bit of fun attacking the pass funnel they have going on in ATL. Pretty easy for me personally to lean **Derek Carr** and **Darren Waller** today.

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Touched on both plays above, the early game selection just allows me to package both of them in on play. **Josh Allen** should exceed 300 yards passing today and I’m thinking we get a classic Matt Ryan letdown game.

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

I know they are fun but I am going to stay away from the huge 6 player prop plays this week and go for something a little more reasonable for our higher risk play and we get to go to everyone’s favorite game of the day. **Patrick Mahomes** and Travis Kelce have been lights out for weeks with Mahomes going for over 340 yards passing in three straight and Kelce has topped 100 yards in those same three whereas Brady has been…meh. The only lean away from Kansas City is my choice of **Antonio Brown** over Tyreek Hill with 16.5 bonus yards. AB clearly still has it and his target volume keeps going up and I think this week is the official welcome back celebration for Brown. I may have been so bold as to take him straight up this week but luckily I don’t have to make that choice.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

Gotta love bonus football. Can’t wait to stuff my face and pass out in front of the TV on Thursday but before we do that let’s take get some prop plays covered at Monkey Knife Fight so we can wake up from our food coma with some extra ducketts for Black Friday. Speaking of Black Friday, Win Daily Sports is running their biggest promotion ever. We’re offering 50% off everything site-wide! All you need to do is go to windailysports.com and take your pick. Click on the picture below for more info.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Either I’m completely off base with the Lions and Matthew Stafford or Vegas sees something that I am missing so if you want to play it safe you can take the over on Deshaun Watson then play Stafford both ways and hedge a little for a safer play. With no Kenny Golladay, an injured thumb, Matt Patricia’s bland offense, potentially no De’Andre Swift or TJ Hockenson and the fact that Stafford has only surpassed 277 yards three times I have a hard time thinking the Lions are only three point underdogs and I have a harder time thinking Matt will but up a big game with Marvin Hall, Marvin Jones, and Kerryon Johnson as his main three options. On the flip side since Bill O’Brien’s firing Deshaun Watson has thrown for over 300 yards in four of six games and one of those was in Cleveland in 50mph wind (made some money on the unders that week if you followed that article). They have no ability to run the ball either so it is all on Watsons shoulders and he is incredibly capable, a slight caveat there when it comes to Duke Johnson, I don’t think it changes a lot but I have a purely gut feeling that this game is going to get out of hand and Duke is going to have his best game all season. It’s a low bar but I’m taking a couple of flyers in DFS with him.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I explained Deshaun Watson’s deal over Stafford already. Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller the 38th are interesting though. My original lean was Cooks but are guy Stix hooked be up with some data and it’s showing a clear advantage to Will Fuller by almost 20 yards and I’m not going to go against those projections when they show that clear of a divide. In Stix I trust with this one, you would be crazy not to. It is the best model in the industry.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am attacking both overs in this Washington/Dallas prop. Dallas has had some struggles but as we talking about last week the O-line is getting healthy and while Dalton isn’t great if he is given time to survey the field he can find his receivers and the one thing Dallas has is talent on the outside. We already put a play out there on discord telling you to attack the over 4.5 receptions for Ceedee Lamb before it moves. If we are assuming at least five catches with an average of 13.1 yards per catch you can do the math and see why we want the over. **Antonio Gibson** is finally starting to get the work that we have been clamoring for. We ideally want 20 carries a game for this guy but he shredded the Dallas run Defense for 6.4 yards per carry having his best game all year with 128 yards on 20 carries last time out so even if he only gets 10 carries and we expect a similar baseline he is easily surpassing 58.5 yards rushing. I don’t think he gets less than 14 carries Thursday so this number is at least 20 yards low in my eyes. Don’t sweat the injury designation as we was a full participant in practice and will not have any limitations come game time.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I know Alex Smith is the king of dink and dunk but when you have the kind of talent that can take a 3 yard dump of 60 yards to the house the yards pile up. He’s gone over 320 yards passing in two of his three starts and who does Dallas have defensively that can keep him from doing that again? The touchdown variance has been really odd on both of those games and we all know in fantasy things tend to regress to the mean but that is a DFS conversation so I’ll leave it at that. MKF is under the assumption that Dalton is going to exceed Alex Smith in passing yards and I just do not see what they do. The only reason he didn’t do more last week is because it simply wasn’t needed. The dink and dunk is the very reason I see JD McKissic beating out Terry McLaurin in catch totals. To be honest even if the bonus went to Terry I still would have gone JD. Smith is targeting JD 15 times a game during a normal script and Ron Rivera is spliting usage 50/50 for him and Gibson right down the middle and recreating what he did with CMC in Carolina. It is crazy to see that if you add it all up it the production is the same as well so I’m completely comfortable going with over props for both Gibson and McKissic in their respective rolls.

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

Want to stuff for face throw 10 bucks on a high risk play and potentially wake up to a big bankroll boost? Well here you go. I make no promises here. Just something for a little fun. we’ve only hit 5 of 6 once just missing out on a 20x return (Thanks Cleveland) so the odds are stacked against you. The point may be completely moot with Detroit/Houston because of Swift’s status so I’ll put two here. Only play one please unless you are good with your bankroll. Remember what I always say. If you NEED the play to pay off, you really should not be playing it.

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

I’m not going to have a full allotment of plays tonight but I’d look to lean unders in the passing game if you see something I didn’t touch on. I’ve found that we have some inefficiencies when I try to fit too many plays on a single game slate so we’re staying simple. I want to build on our nice 3-1 day yesterday.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t like sitting here leading in with unders right off of the jump but both Tom Brady and **Jared Goff** have shown flaws when it comes to defenses that rush the quarterback effectively and not only to the Rams and Buccaneers do that extremely well being 3rd and 5th in sacks respectively they also have strong secondary units capable of staying with top tier receivers in one on one coverage. Rams have Jalen Ramsey, **Darious Williams**, and Troy Hill to match Tampa’s great WR group while Jamel Dean, **Carlton Davis**, and **Sean Murphy-Bunting** are going toe to toe with the Rams WR unit. Add that to pash rush from **Aaron Donald** for the Rams and an always interesting revenge narrative from one of the meanest guys in the leagues in **Ndamukong Suh** and the west coast team traveling east narrative this might not be the most fun game for fans of offensive production.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal with Goff, no need to explain twice. Ronald Jones is really the only offensive weapon I have any amount of confidence in. My DFS lineups are going to be ugly in that regard but the Rams do have one flaw defensively and that’s one the ground. They’ve given up over 100 yards in 6 of 9 games (nice) on the ground including 96 to Zeke Elliot, 95 to Miles Sanders, 71 to Devin Singletary, and a combined 90 yards between Daniel Jones and Wayne Gallman. We always need to worry about Bruce Arians randomly benching Jones because for whatever goofy reason he hold Rojo to a different standard than the rest of the team but if he gets 12-15 carries he should be able to reach the over 60.5.

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

**Tom Brady** and **Jared Goff** have been covered above. I don’t like and overs for yardage props for any receivers but if Goff gets rushed in the pocket enough and starts speeding up his internal clock Sean McVay is going to come out in the second half of the game and simplify all of the route concepts. Goff will be left with no more than two reads and a dump off option in passing situations. During those times Goff and McVay lean on **Cooper Kupp** as his quick passing option so I see plenty of catches but I think the yards will be minimal.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With Andy Dalton back at QB Dallas should be more competitive which bodes well for **Ezekiel Elliott’s** rushing prop of 60.5 and the offensive line “should” be able to hold up against the Vikings who aren’t particularly well in any phase of the game on the defensive side this season. I think we get Zeke’s first 100 yard rushing game of the 2020 season. If the Vikins are bad at defense what do we call the Cowboys? The have the worst passing defense in the NFL and the only reason they don’t statistically surpass the Seahawks is because they aren’t in games long enough for teams to throw for 4 quarters and even though we all like to bag on **Kirk Cousins** but do we really think he won’t hit 240 yards passing against this defense with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to throw to? No way. Gimmie the overs.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t know if you all remember but the last time these two teams met the Raiders showed everyone that they have the ability to play up tempo and hang with anyone in the NFL and **Derek Carr** ended his day with an impressive 347 yard and 3 TD effort while **Patrick Mahomes** had 340 yards passing an two td’s. I was quietly optimistic in what the Raiders were going to be this season and they have blown away my expectations. Look to attack the Raiders overs if they are going to disrespect them like this yet again.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I already discussed my feeling on **Derek Carr** so no need to repeat. **Travis Kelce’s** 79.5 prop is high, but for someone of his caliber that’s a reasonable number. He’s exceeded 80 yards in five of nine games this season including an 8 catch 108 day against these same Raiders several weeks ago. Nothing has changed between then and now that would lead me to think he won’t do it again.

I don’t usually go after the fantasy point props but I really, really like this one. With no CMC **Mike Davis** should absolutely feast and we get the added benefit of PPR scoring so 17.5 should be easily attainable against the weak Lions defense. **Matthew Stafford** is a tough dude and should have no limitations when playing tomorrow and he has exceeded 21 fantasy points in three of his last four outings with the fourth being against the Vikings when he was put in concussion protocol.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Let’s have some fun tonight everyone! These are the days we love put money on. The games where there isn’t a number high enough to scare you away from the overs. With a 57 point total and both QB’s going for a combined 748 yards passing, 1551 yards rushing, and accounting for 7 total touchdowns in their last matchup this should be the best Thursday Night Football game we get all season. Let’s get into our Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19!

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nice path for a 3.5x payout tonight by taking **Russell Wilson** and his week in and week out 300+ yard production against a QB in **Kyler Murray** who is spectacular without a doubt, but while Wilsons value is largely through the air with gaudy passing numbers Murray’s production is in large part due to his ability to run the ball so a 26.5 yard bonus doesn’t scare me all that much. In their week 7 meeting Russ threw for 388 yards and has exceeded 300 in 5 of 9 games to date. Murray still put up a massive 360 yard performance himself in that game but that is not the norm with only 2 of 9 contests this years exceeding the 300 passing yard mark. I’m leaning Deandre Hopkins over Tyler Lockett in part because of Lockett’s lingering knee issue, also his streaky nature this season where he is boom or bust every week, and finally I expect Arizona to do everything in their power to stop him after he embarrassed them a few weeks ago to the tune of 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he does, Kingsbury needs to get on the podium and apologize to the Cardinals fans and his team for putting them in such a bad situation.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

82.5 yards is a high number but if they do what I think they are going to do and try to slow down Lockett that should be a more that reasonable number to hit in a game with a 57 point total. Same deal with Christian Kirk and his 55.5 yard prop. The offense is Murray run, Murray throw, Hopkins and Kirk catch, rinse and repeat. Run game is a mess on both sides so air yards will be the name of the game tonight.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Welp, This was going to be a play but no sooner did Alex Collins get announced inactive they pulled the Carlos Hyde 54.5 prop. Never even had a chance to put it in discord.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll be quick, yes 310.5 is high for Russell Wilson and Yes 92.5 yards is high for Deandre Hopkins. I don’t care, Russ threw for 380 last time out against these guys and Hopkins is nearly a lock button for double digit targets and around 100 yards every week. All of these overs will probably burn me but I’m going to have fun with them at least.

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will however give you a completely optional play that you can attack every week. We were 20 yards by Kareem Hunt away from hitting a 6 man prop play for 20x return against Vegas but it just didn’t come to pass. You would think they Clevand would attempt more than 14 rushs with Hunt in heavy wind and a Baker Mayfield with bruised ribs. Oh, and speaking of that this week.

We had a measure of success attacking the heavy wind games on MKF two weeks ago and with the forecast in a couple of these games forecasting 25+ MPH sustained with gusts in excess of 50 MPH we are going right back to the well.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My take on this one is pretty straight forward. I don’t expect the Browns to make the same mistake they did with Vegas and the wind conditions are going to be nearly identical with sustained winds well over 25MPH. I’m not really worried about **Baker Mayfield** getting 40 bonus yards on **Deshaun Watson** for one reason. The Browns have the ability to run when they need to and the Texans can’t stop it. So give me Watson for all the monies. I am taking **Brandon Cooks** over **Will Fuller** because Cooks is seeing no less than nine targets a game in the last four weeks at an average depth of target nearly three yards closer (I take zero stock in any numbers accrued during the B.O.B. era) and we heard the rumblings of a deal at the trade deadline for Fuller and I seen one thing with Houston, where you see smoke there is almost certainly fire. There is a strain in that relationship that we do not see as spectators and the Texan appear ready to deal him this offseason to recover picks that they need to be competitive. I don’t know how folks will profile this game from a prop perspective but I’d take the Browns to win pretty handily due to the rushing struggles of Houston. Are the Browns smart enough to take advantage is the question.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I love attacking weather. **Baker Mayfield** threw for a whopping 122 yards against Vegas in week 8 in similar conditions. The **Deshaun Watson** under will be tight simply because I think they will utilize the short passing game to compensate for the lack of a run game but I still think under is relatively safe. If you want to play it smart you can take both sides of Watson and take the money to the bank.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x

You mean to tell me we are getting two of worst run defenses in the NFL in a game with the same garbage weather that they are projecting in Cleveland, a healthy Green Bay running attack, and a rookie going into just his second start against one of the heaviest blitzing defenses in the league and you are giving me 245.5 (remember Watson is 255.5) for Jake Luton and and **Aaron Rodgers** has only cleared this number in half of his starts and I expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams Sunday. He may throw 4 td’s because that’s just his style but they will be of the red zone variety. Possibly one of those 20-24 240 yards and 4 td’s high efficiency games that were his trademark in his prime Rodgers days.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal, 245.5 on Jake Luton with high wind in only his second start and he’s only getting 10 yards less than Deshaun Watson????? UNDER. **Aaron Jones** is healthy and while his volume will have you pulling your hair out he does a lot with his 15 carries a game. This number would scare me a little more if it was a typical game but Lafluer has to get him more work in a game where it should stay on the ground, shouldn’t he? if he gets 18 carries as apposed to his 14-15 carry volume against this run defense I think he breaks 100 on the ground

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

**Tom Brady is petty**, Antonio Brown should see a full allotment of snaps and we know he loves him some him, Godwin’s finger is a week better and Brady usually comes out to prove a point when he gets smacked around. Perfect storm of petty is ready to unload in Charlotte. We already discussed the Packers, and **Terry McLaurin** is possibly the most underrated receiver in the NFL against a horrible Lions secondary in what I think will be the official welcome back game for Alex Smith (love to see it). Terry is getting peppered with targets.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We actually get to have a little bit of fun this week attacking overs. Going after the unders last week ended up being a pretty decent strategy and our ROI ended up being 50% if you played1 unit across the board. For whatever reason the Browns decided that they didn’t want to run the ball against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a snowstorm with wind in excess of 35 MPH or else we would have hit our 5 player prop with a 20x payout. But such is life.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

I’m not one to take overs when it comes to Nick Foles but there are a couple of things that lead me to go that way today. First, all of the various sportsbook pages have his line set around 270 which tells me this is an error at 255.5. Next, the Titans are 6.5 point favorites so I expect the Bears to be throwing a lot in the second half. Finally, and it’s more of a psychological thing for me, Mitch Trubisky isn’t sitting on the bench with Nagy coaching waiting on to put him in if Foles throws a couple of early picks. A.J. Brown is pretty simple. The Bears play sides so I’m not worried about Fuller being matched up on him. He’ll be matched up against Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine which means wheel up on 64.5 receiving yards.

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

This seems like a mismatch both ways. With no Mark Ingram, a pass funnel defense, and the second highest expected total on the day 215.5 seems way too low. **Lamar Jackson** hasn’t been the best in terms of airing it out this season but John Harbaugh challenged Jackson in the media this week to tighten his game up and a expect him to respond. Phillip Rivers on the other hand has a noodle arm, against one of the best secondary’s in the league, with no T.Y. Hilton. 258.5 seems like a number he’s going to have a hard time reaching.

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

For some reason MKF doesn’t have a ton of pick 3 of 4 options and I wanted to give us something a little easier to go at Sunday so this rapidfire for 1.5x return is where we will target. I was interested to see two things when it comes to **Chase Daniels**. First, he has a career 68.3% completions percentage and second, his average pass depth is 6.9 yards per attempt. I’ll give you one guess as to what **T.J. Hockenson’s** average depth of target is? It’s 6.8 yards compared to Danny Amendola’s 10.6. So it looks like he slides right into Chase’s comfort zone and 68.5 bonus yards is too much against a Vikings team who will look to run the Lions into the ground tomorrow. **Justin Jefferson’s** explosive ability will likely be used during play action passing when the Vikings choose to air it on the rare occasion and when lined up against Jeff Okudah there will be a clear and obvious mismatch to exploit.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

**Tom Brady** with a full allotment of weapons to include a motivated Antonio Brown is an incredibly dangerous thing, add the fact that they looked like crap against the Giants and I have an expectation that they are going to try and run the score up to prove a point so I’m expecting Touchdown Tommy to put up a massive number tomorrow. **Drew Brees** I have a legitimate concern over. Reports came out this week that he has a problem in his throwing shoulder. Combine that with his struggles pushing the ball down field when he is healthy and I see one of two scenarios tommorrow. The Saints lean hard on Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara or, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, they use Bree’s ailing shoulder as a reason to roll out Jameis Winston to see if they can get some kind of vertical threat in their passing game. I love everything that Drew Brees has done for the NFL but father time is catching up to him in a hurry and we may be reaching a point where the catastrophic shoulder injury that ended up bringing Brees to New Orleans in the first place starts to cause lingering issues towards the tail end of his career.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Prop Plays

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

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