The PGA Tour is back in full flight as we arrive at the Farmers Insurance Open. This is another tournament that features two courses (which I find really annoying) and the courses aren’t particularly similar as they are both a Par 72 but the South course is 400-500 yards longer than the North Course. Three of the rounds are being played on the South Course so that is where my focus will be from an analysis standpoint. Bombers are welcome here and driving accuracy will certainly help. Around the Green game is also important. And finally, this is a tough place to putt so I will be putting a slightly higher emphasis than normal in that department. In case it’s not obvious, I’m looking for guys with good to great all around games. Let’s get started with our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks!
Rory McIlroy (11000) – His track record here is excellent and he appears to be in pretty good form. I’m usually finding excuses to fade Rory, but in this field I like him as my top guy (Rahm is great but I’ll explain why I prefer Rory on our PGA Livestream).
Harris English (9800) – Harris English doesn’t feel like a guy that can take this thing down, but he’s got a shot. He’s got a rare combo of good ball striking and good short game and that’s the type of box checking I’m interested in this week.
Cam Smith (8500) – A guy who doesn’t necessarily grade out very well, but who can really grind on tougher courses. I think this will be a welcome test for Cam after the resort style Sentry and Sony where he didn’t play very well.
Ryan Palmer (8400) – Likely to be a popular player because the price is just too good. He’s been striking the ball very well and he’s played very well at this course. Let’s see how chalky this guy becomes, but either way, I may be eating this chalk.
Cam Davis (7900) – Can drive it a long way and not terrible with the short game. He’s also coming off a 3rd place at the American Express so I’ll have a few shares and ride the hot hand with upside.
Sam Burns (7700) – I was one of the few that did not tout Burns last week and that was mostly because he should never be chalk and wasn’t as good a course fit as people thought. I think the Farmers is much better suited for Burns and I like how he closed last week with a very good Friday score (after a deplorable round on Thursday).
Carlos Ortiz (7500) – More of a hunch play as his track record here is quite bad. But recent form has been good and I think he has upside (3 Top 15 finishes in his last 4 including an outright win). This is a boom or bust play so tread carefully
Doug Ghim (7200) – Ball striking has been great and outside of an MC at the Sony he has been very consistent and offering plenty of upside (5th last week at AmEx). His only two attempts at the Farmers were a MC and a 20th place finish and when you get to this range I think that’s about what you should be expecting, one or the other.
John Huh (7000) – Three Top 25’s in his last three tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut here in his last five attempts. This is the type of guy you want at the bottom end of your lineup.
Luke List (6800) – Has been bad for a little while now but starting to come on strong and capture some of what we thought he was a couple years ago. Luke List can hit the ball a mile and APP and ARG aren’t too bad. What concerns me is a really bad putter, but you’re rolling the dice in this range regardless, so I’ll have a share or two of List.
Richie Werenski (6700) – Led the field in driving accuracy last week and was hitting it about 300 yards which isn’t bad. Werenski, one of the first Secret Weapons ever, is probably entering the mispriced conversation and that means he’s a solid value play in this range.
Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned/less than 7k) – Nice little run I’m on here (27-2). Regression coming? Who knows. What I do know is this week’s SW will be in Discord Wednesday night.
Thanks for checking out our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks! See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for The Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek. We will have the full DFS breakdown plus outrights (hit last week with Si Woo Kim at 70 to 1)! Be on the lookout for other articles coming from the Win Daily Sports Family, too!
We are back to a full field event here in Hawaii, but this course is not a bombers paradise like last week. Instead you will want to be accurate OTT and really solid on APP (APP will be my key stat this week). Below are my initial picks but me and Joel Schrek (@draftmasterflex) will be breaking down the entire slate of golfers tonight at 8:30 EST on the Win Daily YouTube channel and on our Twitter page @windailysports. Also, stay tuned to the numerous articles, projections and related information coming up within the next couple of days from the Win Daily Golf Team. Let’s get after it and breakdown my Sony Open initial picks.
Webb Simpson (11000) – Not an impressive finishing position last week, but when you consider he just came off of a bout with Covid it wasn’t too bad. Webb’s trouble spot was OTT last week but that shouldn’t be a problem for him on this relatively short course. It’s a perfect course fit and he’s finished Top 5 his last two at Sony.
Collin Morikawa (10600) – Had a tough Sunday but was otherwise pretty great last weekend. The ball striking is where it needs to be and it will be Collin’s putting that will decide if he’s worth this pricetag. I think this is the type of field where Collin can get another win in his young PGA Tour tenure.
Sungjae Im (9800) – Speaking of a problematic putter, that is literally the only thing Sungjae did not have going for him last weekend. He was up to his usual ways in the ball striking department, but couldn’t do it with the short stick. He still managed to finish 5th last week. His track record at this course is middling as he’s finished right around the Top 20 his only two times here. I think we’re catching Sungjae in a good spot.
Zach Johnson (8500) – I’m not normally a ZJ guy, but it’s hard to deny that this course sets up well for him. He has also been striking the ball very well as of late so I think he has the requisite upside to potentially contend this week. He has performed very well on this course in the past outside of one MC in 2019.
Charles Howell III (8000) – More like Chalkel Howell III, amiright? I may end up fading Howell if his ownership percentage goes full Lanto Griffin on us, but we will have to wait and see. Truth is he has been great at Sony and his recent form has also been solid. A relatively short hitter who can get hot with the irons should be just fine here.
Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Speaking of hot with the irons, I’m a big fan of this guy and played him a lot last year. His putting is always the question mark but his ball striking usually is not.
Russell Knox (7400) – Much like Howell, this is a good course fit for Knox and his game has been rounding into form as of late. He’s got three Top 25’s in his last 4 tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut in his last four at the Sony.
Tom Hoge (7300) – A former ‘secret weapon’ who also sets up well for this course. When Hoge’s irons are on he is a legitimate threat to take a peak atop the leaderboard and I’m willing to take a chance on him at this price.
Kyle Stanley (7200) – A good ball striker who is very under the radar because he just can’t seem to put the entire game together. This course suits him and he’ll need to get hot with the putter to make some real noise, but I like the value here. Stanley had a MC here last year but prior to that was typically landing in the Top 25. Not much by way of win equity but he could have some big scoring rounds.
Doug Ghim (6900) – Ghim is another guy that rates out really well in the ball striking department, but should have low ownership due to some middling finishes as of late and a MC here last year.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to our Discord chat.
Thanks for checking out my Sony Open initial picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast.
It feels like the break took way too long, but golf season is back and I couldn’t be happier to be a part of this Win Daily Team. Join us Tuesday night (tonight!) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream (You can watch on Twitter or our YouTube channel) and stay tuned for the numerous articles and Discord banter between now and tee time. This course doesn’t present much by way of challenges as fairways are very easy to hit and so are the greens. With that said, it does help to be long OTT, and as always, APP is an important factor (particularly the short iron game). Also, the Bermuda greens are quite large, and sometimes undulating here, so this may be a tournament to put a little extra emphasis on putting. This is a 42 person field and a no-cut event. See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Let’s get started with my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks.
Dustin Johnson (11000) – I was a bit hesitant to include DJ because he is expensive and we’re not 100% sure he’s locked in post-Masters. Over his last four efforts on this course he’s never finished worse than 7th (and he won it in 2018). He’s not my favorite play, but he’s not a fade either.
Justin Thomas (10700) – Speaking of course history, JT has won here twice in the last four years and his game is perfect for this course as he can go long off the tee and kill it with his short irons. His recent form has also been pretty impeccable with a 12th at Mayakoba, 4th at The Masters, 2nd at the Zozo and 12th at the CJ Cup. If choosing between DJ or JT, I choose JT (and so will most others as JT is tracking at close to 30% while DJ is around 25%. More on ownership during Tuesday night’s Livestream and Steven’s Wednesday ownership article).
Webb Simpson (9400) – This one is tricky because he’s not the best course fit, given that he’s a relatively short hitter, but that doesn’t preclude him from winning this thing. Webb is accurate, great with irons and can get hot with the putter (putting may be key here). Webb’s recent form isn’t great but it’s decent. I think the break may have been good timing for him and I like him at what I expect to be relatively low ownership.
Collin Morikawa (8800) – Speaking of low ownership, Morikawa is enjoying some of that because his recent play hasn’t been great. But he’s already won plenty on the PGA Tour and he’s typically great OTT and on APP. This is a play on ownership percentage and price. I’m willing to buy-low on a great ball striker who has already proven he can win.
Cameron Smith (8400) – Mr. Smith paid huge dividends for me and most of the Win Daily family during the Masters and I think he’s a guy that is going to really plant himself on the map this year. With that said, he’s not necessarily a great course fit and he’s only played here once in the last 5 years and that was a modest 17th place finish. Frankly, I don’t really care what Cam Smith did 3 years ago here, I’m trying to get in early on him.
Joaquin Niemann (8300) – This is a no-cut event and for me that means take the streaky players (see Ryan Palmer below). Niemann can be inconsistent but that won’t cost you a missed cut this week and I think he has the talent to contend at the top if he can string together some of those aforementioned streaks. His recent form has been average and perhaps that’s why his pricetag is so low, but he did finish 5th here last year.
Carlos Ortiz (7100) – Doesn’t grade out particularly well OTT or on APP but he is gaining in those categories (barely), but his recent form has been solid with an 8th at Mayakoba and an outright win in Houston. I like the upside here.
Ryan Palmer (7000) – Did someone say upside? I’m biased because I may be the actual President of the Ryan Palmer fan club, and when it comes to no-cut events, he’s a great option. Yes, Palmer can blow up here or there, but he can put together great streaks, and frankly, his price here is a little disrespectful.
Andrew Landry (6300) – We’re officially in the “take some chances” range here and last year I saw Andrew Landry put some solid rounds together. Worth noting that his recent form is quite checkered with plenty of MC’s, but his last tournament was a 4th place finish at the RSM.
Secret Weapon – A field of 42 doesn’t really give much room for a 6k/less than 5% owned play so the first SW will be next week. We will talk plenty about this 6k range in Discord though so stay tuned.
Thanks for checking out my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast. Welcome back!
The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours. Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people). As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT. You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.
Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7th at the Masters and a 5th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas. If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership. More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.
Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.
Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot. He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP. Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16th, 5th, MC, 8th and 6th. A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.
Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments). The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.
Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game. Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2nd here last year.
Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this. The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP. Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.
Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash. He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up.
Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!). He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.
Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that. He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP. Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.
Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished 11th, 5th, 25th and 7th. Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.
Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit. He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP. He’s made three cuts in a row here.
Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.
See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.
After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.
Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form. It’s expensive but it’s worth it.
Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP. With that said, he was as mere 29th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here. I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.
Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular. More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10th place finish last week in Augusta.
Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston. He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23rd. His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.
Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda. I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.
Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24th. Prior to that he was 2nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP. Also, no stranger to a hot putter. Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.
Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice. A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15th, MC, 13th). He finished 23rd last time he played here in 2019.
Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good. Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly.
Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.
James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row. Ball striking numbers during that time have been great.
Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14th place finish. He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG. I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord
See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.
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