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Before we delve into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview, congratulations to Harris English backers at the Farmers Insurance Open. Over at WinDailySports, it is perhaps fair to feel a little aggrieved this week. Our best bet for the week was Ludvig Aberg at 12/1, who opened with an outstanding first round of 9-under. Bear in mind that English eventually won the tournament at just 8-under. Midway through the second round, Aberg’s odds had dropped as low as -160.

And then, the flu happened. Aberg caught the bug going around the field and was visibly struggling on course to just complete his round. 10 players withdrew from the tournament, the majority based on the illness.

It is one of those unfortunate moments that comes when betting on live sport. However, our course comps were completely on point once again and the statistics identified proved very useful in compiling a successful DFS week.

It is a Signature Event this week. This sees a limited field, the best in the game return, and $USD20m in prizes to be won. It is a very important event in the context of the season and a great opportunity to make some money for golfers and punters alike!

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Pebble Beach Golf Course Analysis

Our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview marks the last tournament in course rotation season. This tournament will see golfers alternate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Given only one round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played at Spyglass Hill, I will provide a brief preview only. As at Pebble Beach, the course is a short par 72 measuring just 7,041 yards. Unlike Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill is less exposed and features tree-lined fairways. Driving distance is more of an advantage there, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.

The reason is the quirky nature of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Pebble Beach is the shortest par 72 PGA Tour golf course at just 6,972 yards. It sees the largest reduction in driving distance to any other course. Cliffs and hazards determine that it simply can’t be overpowered by driver.

Take a look at the photo of the 8th hole below to see why:

Pebble Beach Golf Links hosts our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week

Pebble Beach Golf Links features numerous holes like this. Essentially, all golfers hit tee shots to the same area and play their approach shots there.

The protection of Pebble Beach comes from two key areas. One is the weather. The extremely exposed cliffs are at the mercy of the elements. Secondly, these are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. These greens are a minuscule 3,500 sq ft, which effectively play even smaller due to undulations and mounding.

Given the small size of the targets, around the green and putting see a boost this week. Golfers will miss greens this week! And the ability to have a superb short game and make your putts is vital to keep momentum.

This Key Statistic is Essential This Week

However, my advice would be that there is one statistic that has the largest correlation to success around Pebble Beach. And that is SG: APP from 100-150 yards.

Given the unique nature of the holes, we see a HUGE disparity in the number of approach shots from this range. Actually, it represents the greatest concentration of shots from a particular approach range we will experience all season.

1/3rd of shots will occur from 100-150 yards and 50% of all shots will occur from under 150 yards this week. Your ability to control your wedges is vital to finding yourself towards the top of the leaderboard this week. It also goes some way to explaining the struggles of Rory McIlroy here. If there is one gap in Rory’s game, it is his accuracy with his wedges. He has played this tournament twice, missing the cut and finishing a measly 66th in his other appearance.

This also supports the correlation with driving accuracy. The key to accuracy with wedges is your ability to control the spin generated. Doing so from the fairway is much easier than when you are in the rough.

Pebble Beach Golf Course Comps

Firstly, note that any prior course form is quite transitive here. This event has moved from a lesser full-field event to a signature event. Given their struggles to attract higher-end players, the field tended to change often depending on individual golfer’s status on the PGA Tour. I do think we can take benefit from players who played well here previously, especially if they have found success when putting on these poa annua greens which can be a little tricky.

The RSM Classic has proven a good guide to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It also features two golf courses, one more exposed and another played in-land with tree-lined fairways. Short game is imperative at both courses, and being seaside is another positive.

The other is the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links. This benefits for several reasons. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large reduction in driving distance and focus on placement off the tee. Greens are very small, resulting in precise iron play and short game being over-emphasised as a predictive factor.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week. Both Thursday and Friday, morning presents the best conditions. Winds will be lower before picking up in the afternoon, as well as making the most of any residual moisture in the ground which remains overnight.

If you were to draw any potential advantage, I believe it would be starting on Pebble Beach and playing your second round at Spyglass Hill. The winds currently forecast look to be ever so slightly higher on the Friday. As such, golfers may benefit from being a bit more sheltered on Friday by playing the Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.

You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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Before we delve into our Farmers Insurance Open preview, a hearty congratulations to Sepp Straka backers at The American Express. The victory marked his 3rd victory in as many years, a player surely in the frame to again represent Team Europe at Bethpage in the Ryder Cup this year given his immense upside.

WinDaily Sports contributor Sia Nejad was heavily backing Sepp Straka all week. He was duly rewarded with a 66/1 winner as well as a couple of best-round bets at big odds. Well done Sia!

The Farmers Insurance Open also delivered our best win of 2024, as I successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at MASSIVE odds of 125/1 with 8 places. Looking at our golf course comps below, you’ll understand why we think there is another long shot this year with similar credentials and odds.

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Torrey Pines plays host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Torrey Pines Golf Course Analysis

A reminder from our Farmers Insurance Open preview that we are firmly placed in course rotation season! This tournament will see the golfers alternate between the North and South courses over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.

Given only one round of the Farmers Insurance Open is played on the North course, I will provide a brief preview only. The North Course is much easier than the South Course. Not to say it is an absolute breeze given the prevalent coastal winds (see what I did there), but it is fundamental to take advantage of the minor relief the North course provides. All of the top 32 on the leaderboard last year shot under par on the North course. The worst score on the North course from the top 12 was a 3-under 69, with most going well under that total.

Part of the reason scoring on the North Course is so key is that the South Course is an absolute brute. To start with, the course is just plain long. Playing at 7,765 yards for a par 72, it is one of the top 5 longest courses on the PGA Tour. But that is just the surface of the issue.

Fairways are narrow, measuring on average just 25 yards across. Miss the fairway, and you’ll be greeted by incredibly penal 4in rough which won’t be cut during the event. Greens are reasonably small at 5,000 sq ft on average. They are firm, fast, and undulating. We also have the first instance of poa annua grass, which can be bumpy and difficult to read. This only gets worse as the day goes on, with greens becoming grainier and picking up marks from previous play.

Why Torrey Pines May Play A Little Differently in 2025

Given the above course analysis for our Farmers Insurance Open preview, there are some key statistics you can hone in on to provide yourself an advantage. Driving distance is a real asset at Torrey Pines. It is not to say you can’t be successful if you are short but accurate off the tee. However, your margin for error is small and the path to victory is narrow. Only one golfer in the last 15 years hit over 80% driving accuracy at this course.

Previously, drivers who are both long and accurate have had a stronger advantage. There was one specific note from the Course Superintendent this week which stood out for me. He stated, “This is the driest winter he has experienced in his nine years with the last significant rain event in early April.” This will only make the test even trickier. Fairways will be near impossible to hold for the entire field, as balls will run through on firm fairways into taht juicy 4in rough.

Essentially, I am less focused on any driving accuracy this week. I envision a case where simply being long is enough. Much like Bryson DeChambeau used this tactic to his advantage in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot.

Along with driving distance, I think the Clubhead Speed is an interesting statistic to consider. The benefit of this is twofold. One, they will be longer drivers of the golf ball. If you are going to miss the fairway anyway, it is better to be closer to the green. This is especially true with greens small and firm. The ability to approach greens with a more lofted club will be an advantage. Secondly, the extra thick rough this week means that a higher clubhead speed will mean a greater chance of advancing the ball.

Torrey Pines Golf Course Comps

Torrey Pines has a quite sticky course history. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have usually had a few opportunities to preview the course before finding success.

As a regular US Open venue, and US Open-like conditions this week, you can apply a blank filter on performance at all US Open venues. It was probably a little unsurprising that our 150/1 selection here in 2024 Matthieu Pavon then finished 5th at the US Open later that year.

Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot are all akin to the test likely faced by the golfers this week. Part of our success in finding Pavon came from his performance on key long driving courses on the DP World Tour. Emirates Golf Club, Albatross Golf Resort, and Dom Pedro shape as options.

Particularly good guides are found at Jumeirah Golf Estates and Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. Jumeirah Golf Estates is where Pavon finished 5th to pip Rasmus Hojgaard to the post with the final PGA Tour card for finishing top 10 on the Race to Dubai rankings. Pavon had a 2nd and then a win at the Open de Espana, where we also successfully tipped him at 80/1.

Jon Rahm also links those two courses nicely. He is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, with a superb record of W-29-5-2-7-W (US Open)-3-7-10. He is a three-time winner at the Jumeirah Golf Estates (with a measly 5th in his other attempt), and has two wins in Madrid with a record of W-17-W-9-2.

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our Farmers Insurance Open preview this week. However, I do think there is an option to find a weather edge of sorts. Of the opening two rounds, Thursday looks by far the most windy. Winds are set to prevail at 10-12mph but gusts are predicted to top 30mph.

Now, you might think the idea would be to avoid the South Course in windy conditions. However, I take the other route. The North Course is fundamentally key to compiling a score at this event. The South Course will play very tough irrespective of what the weather is doing. Therefore, I would much rather my players for the North Course in the calmer winds forecast for Friday. The earlier that players are out the better for both days, but particularly Thursday when the winds will begin to kick in from approximately 11:30am onwards.

Heavy winds are again forecast for Saturday with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which may linger into Sunday morning.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

The windy Torrey Pines Golf Course, host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Farmers Insurance Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.

You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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Firstly, a very Happy New Year to all our wonderful regular and new readers. And welcome back to full field golf tournaments for 2025!

Personally, I am excited for what 2025 will bring after a couple short weeks of R+R for myself. It was a big year, covering both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in full as well as moving house twice and buying a new home. All wonderful things!

From my perspective, the FedEx Cup Fall series is improved on prior years. There seems to be more on the line, a final chance for some favourites and regular names to retain PGA Tour playing privileges. But, the reality we all realise is fields are decidedly weaker than what we experience on the rest of the schedule. So, it is wonderful to have a few more well-known names joined by some up and coming talent this week in Honolulu.

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

Profits were down on 2022 (ROI 24.9%) and 2023 (ROI +32.7%). This is easily understandable. It came down to one golfer, who you might have heard of, named Scottie Scheffler.

When a golfer wins 56% of his tournament starts from March onwards, all as a very short single odd favourite, it makes turning a profit all the more difficult. The vast majority of golf punters ended the year in a loss. So, I am really proud to have delivered this result for our Premium customers in a tricky year.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Every year, Sony Open previews I read will immediately refer to trends. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “8 of the last 11 winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior.” My advice is to approach these with caution. Remember, correlation does not necessarily mean causation!

Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players on the PGA Tour from the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and, often, win in a typically weaker field.

Certainly, I acknowledge there can be a modicum of advantage gained in having played the week prior. Golfers get the chance to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust.

However, I do believe this trend is over-played. Punters and DFS players often completely end up excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That can be seen as an overreaction, to what I regard as a tentative link at best.

Waialae Country Club hosts our Sony Open preview

Waialae Country Club Course Analysis

In poker, it is often spoken about playing the man not the cards. My advice this week is to play the course, not the trend!

Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is starkly different to last week’s host at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Arctic references may not seem as applicable in these warm climes of Hawaii, but the courses couldn’t be more polar opposite.

Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 6th in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees and doglegs in both directions. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. This grass really grabs the club and can produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. This may be emphasised with some wind in the forecast and I predict we also see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold due some rain.

Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than almost any other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.

Wai’alae Country Club Course Comps

Make sure you take a strong look at those who have found prior success at this golf course. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin, followed by Waialae Country Club.

Keep your eye on players who have played well on other shorter courses. Particularly, those with dog legs in both directions and by the sea with higher winds. RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.

El Camaleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. That was before course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in a tropical environment.

Weather

To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Originally, it did seem a significant weather edge would develop. Thursday look set for thunderstorms, heavy rains, and high winds. This was likely to have resulted in an advantage for those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM, as they were likely to have delays and see those golfers get to play majority of their opening rounds on the calmer Friday.

However, those predictions have largely subsided. Thunderstorms now look set to arrive later on Thursday evening after play has concluded. I do still prefer the Thursday PM/Friday AM times as they will get lower winds Thursday afternoon and softer conditions on Friday after overnight rain.

Make sure you are honing in on the key approach numbers listed above. I also give a boost to SG: ATG and SG: Putting over typical tournaments at Waialae, with a higher likelihood of missed greens and needing to scramble to maintain momentum with par saves.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

Sony Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

It was so popular that we brought it back!
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One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

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Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!

It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.

After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.

It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.

Now is the BEST time to lock in with WinDaily! Leading up to the final major, The Open Championship, we have brought back our popular DeepDiveGolf Promo. Grab our “Feel Like a King” special before The Open and receive 50% off your membership fees for the lifetime of your membership!

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John Deere Classic History Preview

Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.

However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.

It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.

TPC Deere Run Golf Course Analysis

TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.

In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.

Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.

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Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.

A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.

The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.

TPC Deere Run Course Comps

First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.

However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.

TPC Deere Run plays host to our John Deere Classic Preview

Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.

Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.

John Deere Classic Weather Preview

Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.

Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.

Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.

As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.

Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.

Weather forecast could be key to our John Deere Classic Preview

John Deere Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the John Deere Classicyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. No one provides better value!

Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 John Deere Classic. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.

Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.

Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.

TPC River Highlands Golf Course Analysis

True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.

TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.

Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!

TPC River Highlands plays host to our Travelers Championship Preview

The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.

TPC River Highlands Course Comps

Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.

As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.

Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.

Travelers Championship Weather Preview

As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.

Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.

There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.

Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.

Travelers Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

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Before getting into our betting tips for the US Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Pinehurst No. 2, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my p...

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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).

Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.

That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.

US Open History at Pinehurst No. 2 Preview

The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!

Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.

Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Golf Course Analysis

It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.

Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.

Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).

Pinehurst No. 2 hosts our US Open preview

There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.

Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.

Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Course Comps

As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.

I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.

The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.

US Open Weather Preview

In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.

Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.

Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!

US Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the 124th US Openyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

Rewatch the US Open PGA Draftcast

If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!

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Firstly, thank you all for being a little patient with me over the last fortnight with article production. I’ve been gallivanting around the world again for some work commitments, in this instance to the Philippines. And, as is often the case, I managed to get a bug on the way home. Initially, something I dubbed the “Manila Thriller” followed by a cold, but fortunately not COVID. It is great to be back into the swing of things for a signature event with our Memorial Tournament preview.

However, the golf tips have kept rolling for a great couple of weeks. We hit Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open for a 75/1 winner on the DP World Tour. We then backed that up with another fabulous week on both sides of the pond. At the European Open, we had both Niklas Norgaard and Julien Guerrier in 4th. Fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox held a 4-shot lead with 25 holes to play, before he looked at a leaderboard. 5 of our selections at the RBC Canadian Open finished 21st or better (with 4 of those in the top 10). It was especially pleasing considering we had limited data on a relatively rare appearance of Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

Muirfield Village Golf Club – Course Analysis

The signature event returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club, affectionately known as “Jack’s Place”. Jack Nicklaus designed the course in 1974 before the inaugural PGA Tour tournament in 1976. He then undertook a renovation in 2020 which saw all green complexes remodeled, restored bunkering, and lengthening of the course. As such, we have a wealth of data to delve into this week.

The course is perhaps Nickalus’ most iconic design and his stylization of this track is clear to see. A key for all of Nicklaus’ courses is that they should reward players for the gifts they possess. If you have distance, you should be able to use it. However, if you miss the fairway, you will be penalized. Muirfield Village was designed with Augusta National in mind, visible in the heavily undulating greens.

Muirfield Village hosts our preview of the Memorial tournament

Despite on paper being a very long 7,533 yard par 72, driving accuracy has been a better predictor of success. The rough is thick and lush at 4 inches Kentucky bluegrass. It has been the highest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Adding to that, heavy rain has been experienced throughout May in Ohio.

Greens are relatively small at 5,000sq ft on average. The course has ranked in the top 5 most difficult for SG: APP on the PGA Tour every season since the 2020 restorations. We see 35% of all iron shots occur from 200+ yards and 50% of all approaches from 175+ yards. Notably, the Par 5s are still reachable by even the shorter hitters.

Finally, SG: ATG is a key factor. The course ranked in the 6 most difficult for SG: ATG since 2015. As such, we honed in on driving accuracy, SG: APP (particularly over 175 yards), and SG: ATG this week.

Muirfield Village Golf Club – Course Comps

Given the Nicklaus signature design across the property, we can look at a couple of other designs from the Golden Bear for guidance. PGA National has always proven a stern major like test, and that is what we can expect to find this week. Winning scores should not get out of hand there, and a total of -10 to -15 can get the job done. Valhalla stacks up very well also. This has the added benefit of featuring bentgrass greens and ticking the box on recent form, given the PGA Championship was held there just a fortnight ago.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is also analogous. The Valspar Championship has always rewarded driving accuracy over distance (although both are preferable at each). That largely comes down to similar reasons to Muirfield Village: that the rough is long and the fairways are tree-lined. You see a disproportionate number of shots from over 200+ yards, as golfers favour accuracy off the tee and leave themselves a longer approach.

I’ll give a nod to the Wells Fargo Championship host, with Quail Hollow also looking for longer but accurate drivers and providing a stern test. And, of course, I do think it is a benefit if you have played well at Augusta National. Particularly, look for solid performance there around and on those undulating green complexes which we see emulated by Nicklaus here.

the Memorial Weather Preview

Often with signature events, there is little to say about the weather. With most of these events having no cut, they also feature condensed tee-times with all golfers hitting the course within two hours of the rest of the field. Without a cut, you are far more likely to see the cream rise to the top by the end of the week.

However, it is worth noting the differences this week. The event does feature a cut, albeit only to 50 golfers and ties or those within 10 strokes of the lead by the conclusion of round 2. Additionally, all groups will start on the 1st tee this week. That means there is a substantial gap between the field. The first players (a lone Davis Thompson) begin play at 7:40 am local with the final pair not going out until 2:00 pm.

There may be a benefit for those going out earliest on Thursday morning. Prevailing winds should sit in the single digits until around 11:00 am, before rising to mid-teens for the remainder of the day. Heavy gusts are predicted for later in the afternoon, reaching as strong as 25-28mph. Friday should be windy all day, with gusts of between 28-35mph.

With heavy rain overnight Wednesday, I suspect Thursday AM get both softer and calmer conditions. I would not be surprised to see lift, clean, and place in-play. That would further benefit those who gain on the field for driving accuracy.

Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge.

the Memorial Tournament Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the Memorialyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Memorial tournament. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Well, I may have a small part of premonition on the PGA Tour last week in our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. I mentioned that there may be some hope for punters trying to find some value with no Scottie Scheffler in the field and Ludvig Aberg WD with knee injury concerns. I went on to say that it probably meant Rory McIlroy would win. We duly struck a blow for punters, becoming yet another short-priced favourite to win on the PGA Tour. There, I will fess up, I jinxed it. Sorry, all.

True to form, I mentioned an interesting PGA stat I found in the lead-up to the Wells Fargo Championship preview. Just two winners had sat outside the Top 31 for ball speed when they won at Quail Hollow. It may be frustrating to see another short-priced winner, but it was reassuring to see our analysis played true in that regard.

But, let’s get honest. It has been a dire season for nearly all golf punters. It has been either very short-priced favourites or extreme long-shots taking out most tournaments for the season. So often, golf betting value is found in the 50/1 to 100/1 range. There have been just 4 such winners on the PGA Tour this year. Fortunately, finding Pavon at 125/1 at the Farmers Insurance Open has saved us from complete decimation. However, we stick to the process with the knowledge that when it comes to golf analysis following the numbers will eventually lead to a positive result over the long run.

Valhalla Golf Club Course Analysis

Valhalla plays host to our PGA Championship preview

Speaking of Rory McIlroy, the PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club, a course we last had the chance to preview some 10 years ago. That was the venue of Rory’s last major victory, and he arrives in a rich vein of form off the back of consecutive victories. Included in that was the win at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where Quail Hollow should play analogous to Valhalla.

This feels like another venue that will do what it says on the tin. Valhalla, designed by Jack Nicklaus and played in the state of Kentucky, is an epic 7,609 yards par 71. Quail Hollow is also a par 71 and a mere 51 yards shorter. Both also feature a driveable par 4 and reasonably narrow fairways.

That is a hallmark of Nicklaus-designed golf courses. He tests every element of a player’s game. So, if pulling driver, you will be rewarded with extra distance if you keep the ball in-play. However, fairways narrow significantly at landing areas with thick hay and fairway bunkers awaiting any tee shot that falls too astray.

Greens are a little smaller than Quail Hollow and are bentgrass. They will be firm and fast, typical of a PGA Championship venue. Par will often be a very good score and see you gaining strokes on the field.

Finally, we have a rare emergence of zoysiagrass fairways. This grass type features rarely on the PGA Tour. We see this at regular stops at TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Southwind, and East Lake Golf Club. This polarizing grass has a higher rate of water retention. Some players comment that it feels like hitting the ball off a tee. Others complain that it can produce flyers, with the grass getting caught between the ball and club face and traveling further than expected.

Valhalla Course Comps

As mentioned, this is a rare circumstance where last week’s tournament provides not only some guidance of recent form but a course that should demand similar skills from our golfers in this PGA Championship preview.

Quail Hollow matches in a large number of metrics, from overall performance off the tee, and similar approach metrics as expected this week where any shots over 175 yards will see a disproportionate weighting compared to other PGA Tour venues.

Given some of the weather to be discussed shortly, I think that the 2022 PGA Championship could be a reasonable guide to this week. Oak Hill also is far from the worst guide to consider.

I have also included some weighting in my model to recent zoysiagrass performances. Although the venues often produce lower-scoring tournaments, we can look into the approach numbers at these PGA Tour stops to identify players who may prefer this grass type.

PGA Championship Weather Preview

Weather certainly looks like it could play a role in this year’s PGA Championship preview. Thursday currently looks to be quite calm, although early morning fog may see play delayed by an hour or two if heavy. Particularly, Thursday morning looks to be quite still and should provide optimal scoring conditions with the course still a little moist from rain earlier in the week.

Friday afternoon, we could see some more volatile weather arrive. There is a chance of thunderstorms from 1pm and winds will increase, gusting up to 25-30mph. There is always the risk with thunderstorms that play is delayed. This can cause any weather edge to flip 180°.

However, in this instance, forecasts have Saturday being very windy and high gusts all day. Thos on Friday PM would only find themselves in more volatile winds should they need to finish round 2 on Saturday morning.

That leads me to believe there should be a weather edge for tee-times from Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. That always comes with the caveat that weather forecasts can flip quickly, especially when there is the looming chance of thunderstorms.

Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge. You will find this information and more in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

PGA Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the PGA Championshipyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the PGA Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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For most punters, it’s fair to say it has been a polarizing season on the PGA Tour so far. Mixed in between a number of extremely short-priced Scottie Scheffler victories, whose four wins all came at less than $7.50, there have been a number of long-shot winners. In fact, an outstanding 8 of the first 13 tournaments this year were won by a golfer paying triple figures come tournament start. Just five victories have come at less than 80/1 this year that weren’t Scheffler. Fortunately for us, we managed to hit Matthieu Pavon at 125/1, which has helped to keep our head above water. Also fortunately for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship preview, we picked Wyndham Clark successfully here at 75/1 for his debut PGA Tour victory.

In case you were wondering, those five winners under 80/1 in 2024 (who weren’t Scottie Scheffler) are as follows. They were Wyndham Clark at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (60/1), Jake Knapp at the Mexico Open (40/1), Stephan Jaeger at the Houston Open (50/1), Akshay Bhatia at the Texas Open (50/1), and Billy Horschel at the Corales Puntacana (20/1).

Finally, perhaps the largest stroke of fortune in hopefully finding some value this week is that Scottie Scheffler is not playing. With the withdrawal of Ludvig Aberg from a course that should’ve really suited him also has to assist. Which, of course, probably means Rory McIlroy wins this week.

A short tangent into the history books

The host course this week, Quail Hollow Club, provides many advantages for our Wells Fargo Championship preview this week. Firstly, this tournament has been hosted at this venue on 18 prior occasions. The golf course also hosted the Kemper Open on 11 occasions, if you wish to deep-dive back to the 1970s. This provides a wealth of data to delve into. Secondly, the course does exactly what it says on the tin.

Initially, the mention of those 1970s tournaments may seem pretty inert. Until you find out that Tom Weiskopf won the event 3 times in that 11 year span. He was regarded as one of the longest drivers of the golf ball at the time, along with one of the most consistent ball-strikers of his era.

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Quail Hollow Course Analysis

Not much has changed some 50 years later. That helps our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. The golf course is a mammoth 7,558 yard par 71. Pound-for-pound, that makes it the longest PGA Tour venue of the regular stops for the year. It should come as no surprise, then, that driving distance is a real asset at this golf course.

That translates as far as the approach shots. A whopping 75% of all approach shots will occur from over 150 yards. If there is a flaw in Rory McIlroy’s game, it is perhaps his wedges. Therefore, it should be no surprise that he has won three times, finished runner-up twice, and an additional four Top 10s to boot on a course where he really ends up with a short-iron in hand. That’s a remarkable rate of 2/3rds of his appearances resulting in a Top 10 here.

Quail Hollow plays host to our Wells Fargo Championship Preview

Given those metrics, and particularly weighing in the approach data, ball speed is an interesting statistic to consider this week.

Since 2007, only two winners at Quail Hollow have ranked worse than 31st in ball speed for the PGA Tour season. Those were James Hahn (2016, ranked 83/207 at tournament start) and Rickie Fowler (2012, ranked 46/187 at tournament start). Last year’s champion Wyndham Clark finished 3rd in that ranking for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

As a matter of curiosity, here are the current players ranked 31st or better for the season in ball speed that are in this week’s field:

4th Wyndham Clark
5th Rory McIlroy
7th Gary Woodland
9th Tony Finau
10th Xander Schauffele
11th Jake Knapp
16th Nick Dunlap
17th Cameron Young
26th Byeong-Hun An
30th Taylor Pendrith

Sam Burns, ranking 32nd, is the bubble boy.

Quail Hollow Course Comps

Alongside the wealth of data to delve into for our Wells Fargo Championship preview, we also have the added benefit of a course with some of the stickiest course history on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National, Riviera, TPC Scottsdale, and Bay Hill hold stronger correlations.

What does that mean? Well, that this golf course prefers a particular type of player, and it’s repeatable. Further, arriving in a lack of form is less of a hinderance than at other venues if you have played well at Quail Hollow before.

If you weren’t following these pages back at the 2023 US Open, we went one further on Wyndham Clark and also successfully tipped him at 80/1. Part of the reason was we suspected Los Angeles Country Club would play quite similar to Quail Hollow.

We weren’t disappointed. The tournament produced a leaderboard near identical to a Wells Fargo Championship.

Alongside Clark, we also selected Rickie Fowler who was first round leader, tied with Clark for the lead entering the final round, and finished 5th. Plus Xander Schauffele, who was also FRL, 6th entering the final round, and finished 10th.

Fowler has the 3rd best strokes gained total of all recorded rounds at Quail Hollow, including his maiden PGA Tour win. Xander ranks in the top 15 for SG of those who have played the course at least 4 times. Rory McIlroy finished runner-up. Fleetwood finished 5th at both courses in 2023, with English finishing 3rd at Quail Hollow and 8th at LACC.

Another to consider is Bay Hill, a long driving golf course where ball-striking is at a premium. And, finally, the Valspar Championship which requires a large number of approach shots over 200+ yards and shares the same bermuda greens overseeded with poa annua.

Wells Fargo Championship Weather Preview

As we have mentioned previously at these signature field events, the reduction in size to just 69 players does limit any weather edge that can be gained. Whereas in a larger field tournament there is more dispersion in tee-times, here all golfers will be out on the golf course within 2 hours of each other. As such, there is less opportunity for any particular tee-time to gain an advantage by being on the golf course at a certain time.

Thursday looks a windy day, with prevailing winds reaching 15-20mph and gusts over 30mph. There is a small chance of thunderstorms, but likely insufficient to result in play not completing that day. Friday morning should provide calmer winds in the morning, but quickly increasing from 1pm onwards to similar levels seen on Thursday. Given the first tee-times are at 11am local, there may be a minor advantage for those going out first on Friday morning.

All models point to Saturday and Sunday being calm, with scoring likely to be best on these days.

Wells Fargo Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Wells Fargo Championshipyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking. You can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

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You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover.
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One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Wells Fargo Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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