PGA GPP

If the Bettor Golf Podcast is not up by mid-day Wednesday, I will post the un-edited version to my Twitter @Teeoffsports. Please keep an eye out for that!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Justin Thomas ($11,100) – I don’t understand the reduction in ownership after everyone wanted him at the Masters, and it is not as if he burned the industry during his eighth-place result. Thomas ranks inside the top-10 in six of the eight categories I ran, and I like that he is currently projected to be sub-13 percent.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) – Patrick Cantlay dominated the Masters tee-to-green but was undone by a putter that lost 5.77 shots entering Sunday. Everyone forgets Cantlay was the hottest player in the world a few months ago, and I love the idea of getting a reduction in price and ownership.

Other Consideration – I thought I was going to like Dustin Johnson ($10,500) entering the week, but the reverse line movement in odds and every matchup is extremely troublesome. Johnson has a negative trajectory in upside in my model, and I think I prefer pivoting elsewhere at this moment.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,700) – I have nothing negative to say about Shane Lowry; I just would prefer moving up to Patrick Cantlay for $200 more when push comes to shove, but Corey Conners is likely my first real consideration in the $9,000 range. The Canadian has posted back-to-back top-20 results at the venue, and his weighted off-the-tee game places him second in this field.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) – Matt Fitzpatrick was 122nd on my model when I first ran numbers for weighted proximity, but the mistake I think I had initially was that data would be equally bad at any track. That clearly doesn’t make logical sense as someone that has proven he loves Harbour in the past, and I saw a massive correction in my data when I ran my numbers for straight approach play over the last two years. In my opinion, Fitzpatrick has some of the best safety and ceiling for anyone below $10,000, and I think you can get unique in other spots if you start with him near the top.

Sungjae Im ($9,200) – Sungjae Im looks like the forgotten about elite golfer in the $9,000 section. The irons have been hit-and-miss over the past few months, but I think we get as much win equity as anyone we have spoken about so far – just at half the ownership.

Russell Henley ($9,000) – The ownership will be up there for Russell Henley, but I think he is good chalk. Henley grades fourth in this field from an upside perspective and is the top player in the event when looking at his approach stats.

Other Targets: I noticed Daniel Berger ($9,600) and Joaquin Niemann ($9,100) were massive underdogs in all their matchups. That doesn’t mean the offshore books are correct, but it provides me some concern when Fitzpatrick is nearly -180 against Niemann.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson $8,800 – Stixpicks is in Jamaica for his honeymoon. There is nobody to stop me from playing Webb Simpson!!!

Billy Horschel $8,700 – Billy Horschel is a quiet sleeper. His form has been excellent after posting five top-16 finishes in a row before the Masters, so let’s not be too critical about his 43rd-place showing at Augusta. That is not a course that suits his game, and I expect the Horschel of the past two months to be back and firing at Hilton Head.

Si Woo Kim $8,400 – It has become a weekly entry that Si Woo Kim makes my player pool. The ownership looks good. The form is excellent. And I think he eventually gets himself back in the winner’s circle before long.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,200 – It doesn’t take much to move Tommy Fleetwood into the top-10 of my model. Last year’s missed cut was a fluke when we dive into the route he took to not playing the weekend, and his Friday blistering pace provided the upside that is possible when he puts all the pieces together.

Other Thoughts: I don’t mind Kevin Kisner ($8,100), but I likely won’t have a ton of exposure elsewhere.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Kevin Na ($7,800) – Kevin Na is the largest climber in my model for weighted tee-to-green, jumping from 83rd at a random track to 11th.

Brian Harman ($7,700) – It is hard to ignore the influential money that I respect betting Brian Harman. I am not necessarily as high on him as some, but his course history makes a ton of sense for why he might find another solid showing.

Tom Hoge ($7,600) – If Tom Hoge remains around 15%, I might pivot elsewhere. He is more volatile than the public realizes.

Ian Poulter ($7,500) – Ian Poulter has similar win equity to Tom Hoge at half the ownership. I like both options, but it is worth noting.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300) – The current form does leave something desired, but I think this is a good spot for him since he tends to find more success when you remove the driver from his hands. The South African ranks 25 places better in my reweighted tee to green stat versus a random course, and he also has the par-five scoring and iron proximity that you would hope to see. 

Charles Howell III ($7,100) – We talked about Charles Howell III some on the PGA Draftcast. The American provides intriguing leverage.

Additional Thoughts: I am going to condense down my core. There are a few other players I am targeting, but I am going to be more aggressive with a higher percentage of the field making the weekend.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Joel Dahmen ($6,800), Cam Davis ($6,800) – be ready for chaos if you play him. Dead last is in play. Brendon Todd ($6,800), Michael Thompson ($6,500)

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Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($10,000) – I wasn’t anticipating this route a week ago, and to be honest, I wasn’t even planning to go down this road when I initially started constructing my lineups and betting cards for the Masters. Hell, I did Sirius Radio with Jason Mezrahi and didn’t even mention McIlroy’s name on Sunday, but something changed for my model when I made a few minor adjustments after the show. First off, the rain that has hit the facility has softened the course, and maybe more importantly, I am even further intrigued about the lack of fanfare McIlroy has entering the week. The Irishman is a high ball-flight hitter who should excel at the track, and we see that data come into play with him ranking third in this field for weighted tee-to-green and first in a course-specific breakdown of my model. Sometimes your final answer changes as you do more work on the event, and this is an example where I now believe Rory captures the career grand slam at Augusta.

Other Consideration – Justin Thomas $10,300 and Jon Rahm $10,800 are my other two favorite options. Scottie Scheffler will create leverage at $11,000

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – I am partially shocked that Xander Schauffele is trending towards 16-17% owned after letting down the entire industry at the Match-Play. 1. Good for everyone ignoring the recent small-term sample size of performances, and 2. I think it makes sense because of how he sets up for Augusta. Xander ranks third in this field for weighted scrambling and three-putt avoidance and also grades inside the top-10 for par-five birdie or better percentage.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) -Bentgrass is Patrick Cantlay’s best surface, and he is coming into the week a little under the radar because of his most recent form. There will be volatility, but he ranks first in this field on quick Bentgrass greens, second in par-five birdie or better percentage, and second in scrambling.

Other Targets: Daniel Berger $9.000, Cameron Smith $9,900

$8,000 Range

Sam Burns $8,600 –The first-timer curse of a golfer not winning this event since 1979 hasn’t seemed to slow Sam Burns down that much, as he looks to be one of the more popular targets in the $8,000 range. Still, though, Burns’ upside is tantalizing, and there is a reason he is currently the favorite to be this year’s debutant winner.

Sungjae Im $8,400 – The recent iron form is concerning, but it is tough to ignore what the industry seems to be overlooking. Im’s ownership is hovering around five percent, which should create leverage for those that want to take a stab that the usually successful second-shot player turns the form around.

Joaquin Niemann $8,200 – I am willing to ignore the questionable course history because of his youth. Niemann grades as one of the better upside climbers in my model.

Tony Finau $8,100 – I continue to bet on the long-term form for him over the recent struggles. The ball-striking has looked good recently. He just needs to clean up the short game… which Augusta obviously isn’t the place for that.

Tyrrell Hatton $8,000 – The course history is non-existent, but the 18th-place finish that he provided last year might be a sign of things to come, especially if we look at his current form. 

Other Thoughts: We talked a little about Tiger Woods on the ‘PGA Draftcast’ tonight if you want to go back and give that episode a listen. The link can be found at the top of the article.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Russell Henley ($7,800) – Russell Henley hasn’t finished worse than 21st during his last three appearances at the Masters.

Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) – I am going to have exposure to Tommy Fleetwood over Bubba Watson (-110) on DraftKings. That price is egregiously mispriced and will likely move before Thursday.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700) – I think you could make a strong argument that Fitzpatrick is the best value on the board at $7,700. There was a reason why Joel, Nick and I all wanted him early on the podcast Tuesday.

Si Woo Kim ($7,100) – The fact that Si Woo Kim captured the Players Championship a handful of years ago should show that he can handle a big stage. His four consecutive top-34 finishes at Augusta should show that he likes the course.

Cameron Young ($7,000) – If Sam Burns isn’t this year’s top debutant, I think the award goes to Cameron Young, who has the length to find success at a wet Augusta.

Additional Thoughts: Nick and I talked about this off-air about Max Homa ($7,100), but not all missed cuts are equal. Homa’s perceived poor form has come because of two missed cuts on the number. I am starting to think he might be a sneaky target, even though the ownership is around 10%.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Kevin Na $6,800, Mackenzie Hughes $6,300 – There are a handful of other options, but I don’t love the idea of trying to use more than one of the 6k range players per build.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

There is a ton of additional content that you can find from me this week at WinDaily. Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jordan Spieth ($10,600) – Everyone seems to be landing on the same golfers this week on DraftKings. I mentioned this comment on ‘Bettor Golf Pod’ that pretty much any pivot you are considering should be made because the contrast between players in every zone is pretty minuscule. For me, Jordan Spieth will be one of the two options where I find myself overweight because of the reduction in ownership, and it doesn’t hurt matters that he grades as a fantastic course fit when I run my two-year data. Spieth rates 12 spots better than expectation in weighted tee to green, a category where he cracks the top-10 in the field, and he also ranks inside the top-10 in TPC play, performance in windy conditions and par-four scoring between 350-400 yards.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) – We don’t have as steep of a difference inside the DFS market as we do betting, but don’t we believe Bryson DeChambeau would be 10 or 12/1 in this field if he was entering the week with a guaranteed clean bill of health? The price tag on DraftKings seems fair for all the uncertainties following him entering TPC San Antonio, but the sub-10 percent ownership mark is fantasy golf’s version of ignoring one of the top upside golfers in this field.

Other Consideration – Abraham Ancer ($10,300) feels overpriced.

$9,000 Range

Corey Conners ($9,800) – It has been three consecutive years where Corey Conners has graded number one on my model at this event. Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau are the only two golfers that come close to matching his pedigree inside of my data when running this for upside, and it is hard to find much to dislike about the Canadian. Sure, the ownership will be up there, but you can quickly get around it by leaving some extra funds on the table or finding pivots in other areas.

Si Woo Kim ($9,600) – Si Woo Kim is quietly one of the sneakier options on the board this week because of his enhanced price tag. Most gamers would rather play the likes of Corey Conners, Chris Kirk or Gary Woodland, but I would advise everyone to take a deeper dive into what the South Korean brings to the table. Kim ranks eighth in this field for DK points, and he hasn’t finished outside of 45th at the course in his last four attempts. I am aware that we will need better than a 45th-place showing for him to pay off his price tag, but his combination of weighted tee to green inside my model and par-five scoring gives him one of the highest ceilings in the field.

Other Targets: Tony Finau ($9,100) – Finau is a super intriguing GPP target at less than 10 percent. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on his upside.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: I am not as aggressively attacking the $8,000 range as most. The two I like the best would be Kevin Streelman ($8,700) and Luke List ($8,500), but there is a lot more volatility in this section than I would care to see. Streelman and List will certainly be fixtures in my player pool. Charley Hoffman ($8,200) has to be a name to monitor because of his past success at TPC San Antonio, but I will likely find myself moving up or down the board in a lot of spots while constructing my builds.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Sahith Theegala ($7,800) – Here is a stat that you will only get over at Win Daily this week. I ran a specific model that you can’t find anywhere to show who the best golfers in the field would be when combining tee to green and par-five scoring, and the results yielded the following. 1. Rory McIlroy, 2. Hideki Matsuyama, 3. Tony Finau, 4. Jordan Spieth, 5. Si Woo Kim, 6. Bryson DeChambeau, 7. Luke List, 8. Sahith Theegala, 9. Doug Ghim and 10. Matt Jones. I am going to bypass including Doug Ghim ($7,600) and Matt Jones ($7,000) in an additional write-up of their own, but as you can see with me taking Jones on the PGA Draftcast tonight, both are very much in play.

K.H. Lee ($7,600) – Eleven straight made cuts for K.H. Lee, who also grades as one of the better golfers off the tee.

Martin Laird ($7,500) – I don’t love the ownership with Martin Laird being over 12.5%, but the ball-striking has remained intact despite back-to-back missed cuts. Laird has gained 4.9 strokes off the tee and approach over his past two starts, but all of that has been undone by losing a combined 8.7 shots with his flat stick. I am willing to trust what the past course results are telling me for the 39-year-old, and I think this is a situation where the form is better than the finishes.

Troy Merritt ($7,300) – A few weeks removed from being one of the chalkiest options on the board, Troy Merritt has returned back to normalcy and should register as a five percent owned golfer for the Valero. Merritt has a nice combination of safety and overall rank on my model, and he is one of a handful of $7,000 golfers that grades as a positive value in all iterations of the sheet.

C.T. Pan ($7,200) – The course history leaves a ton to be desired, but the raw metrics point towards C.T. Pan finally tackling TPC San Antonio. I would use Pan as a GPP-only target.

Matt Jones ($7,000) – I know I said I wasn’t going to include Matt Jones in his own section, but I changed my mind! Jones’ combination of weighted tee to green and par-five scoring gives him a chance to provide a top-10 at virtually no ownership.

Lee Westwood ($7,000) – I mentioned an English golfer on the PGA Draftcast tonight and forgot to elaborate on who I was speaking of before the show finished. Westwood looks like he is going to be less than one percent owned.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model to get a better idea of all the $7,000 golfers that I like this week!

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Guido Migliozzi $6,100 and Adam Svensson $6,800 are two of my favorite targets.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Do you want more golf coverage from me this week? Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I loved how Justin Thomas looked at the Players Championship, but man, what a brutal four rounds he had to encounter. I think we saw some of that letdown take place on Monday, and for that reason, I am going to go with Viktor Hovland as my top man on the board for the Valspar Championship. Hovland has posted three top-nine finishes in a row and ranks number one in this field for total driving.

Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – If Justin Thomas got the worst of the weather draw, Collin Morikawa also did by playing next to him over the opening two days. Morikawa couldn’t handle things quite as pristinely as Thomas did, missing the cut in a disappointing fashion, but the upside remains intact for one of the best ball-strikers in the world.

Other Consideration – I will be underweight to the field on Dustin Johnson.

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – Your weekly reminder that not all chalk is a trap. Louis Oosthuizen checks just about all the boxes that you would be hoping to see on a golfer that can get across the finish line, and after a ton of close calls on the PGA Tour over the years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends his winless drought on America soi at the Valspar.

Other Targets: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) are all in play. The margins are very thin between the group, but I likely would power rank them Hatton, Lowry, Fitzpatrick, Burns and Kokrak.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Webb Simpson can help open up builds for you if you find yourself getting caught in all the same chalk traps. While I wouldn’t recommend going bullishly overweight, you can get to 3-4x the field by using him in 15% of lineups.

Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,000)

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900) – Number one ranked golfer in this field in scrambling and sand save percentage.

Aaron Wise ($7,700) – Wise is the only golfer in the $7,000 range that ranks inside the top-15 players for upside.

Mito Pereira ($7,200) – I don’t like this ownership and will likely pivot elsewhere if these trends continue, but Mito Pereira has been stellar with his ball-striking over the past three events, gaining 4.3 shots to the field per start.

Adam Svensson ($7,200) – Adam Svensson is a pristine ball-striker that excels from 150 yards and beyond. His combination of par-five scoring and GIR percentage makes him a value in most markets, and I do want to note for the last time that he was stolen from me during the PGA Draftcast. My lawyer (Sia) is on the case.

Joel Dahmen ($7,100) – These less-than-driver courses are always where Joel Dahmen finds his best success. Thirteenth in my model for weighted scrambling.

Danny Willet ($7,100) – My two favorite longshot options in the $7,000 range that will be under five percent owned are Danny Willet ($7,100) and Adam Svensson ($7,200). Willet is a top-20 par-five scorer in the field and also ranks inside the top-five for short game metrics.

Taylor Moore ($7,000) – If you are trying to get cute on a play that nobody will see coming, Taylor Moore has a good combination of weighted proximity and overall tee-to-green data to cause some damage at two percent ownership.

Additional Thoughts: There are a handful of additional spots to look into for the week. You can use my model to see some of the other golfers that are showing as a value.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Pat Perez ($6,900), J.J. Spaun ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Martin Kaymer ($6,800), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700), Troy Merritt ($6,600), Hank Lebioda ($6,600), Kramer Hickok ($6,500), Trey Mullinax ($6,400). That gives you a handful of dart throws to go along with some more popular choices.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

If you haven’t had a chance, please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast that I do with Joel Schreck and Sia Nejad.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,100) –Something has to give for Jon Rahm, who has averaged 10.9 strokes per start over his last three contests when it comes to ball-striking. Rahm is trending towards going under-owned in this market because of his poor short game numbers, but I would be careful in removing him from my pool.

Justin Thomas ($10,400) – Psh! Who needs trends? I will save the negative talk regarding Justin Thomas this week for others in the space and instead talk about why his chances of going back-to-back are higher than perception. Thomas has produced the most birdies at TPC Sawgrass since 2017, and it won’t hurt matters that he has a cumulative average of 5.8 in my model – a number that is as low as I have seen from any non-Rahm option. Thomas can win this event with anything better than a neutral putter, and his 18th-place grade on fast/lightning greens might be enough to help that cause.

Other Consideration – Collin Morikawa ($10,700) and Rory McIlroy ($10,800) are both in play. Morikawa will be the chalk. Rory provides some contrarian leverage.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,700) –  I mentioned this fact on both the Bettor Golf Podcast and PGA Draftcast that golfers have spoken about playing to the center of these greens because of their size, and it is challenging to find a player on tour that benefits more than Xander Schauffele. You don’t have to look any further than Xander’s combination of ranking 24th in GIR percentage and 85th in proximity to know he typically plays away from the pin for safety, but that mixture gets enhanced when the center of the green not only keeps him safe at Sawgrass but also should produce more straightforward looks than he is accustomed to having on a bigger surface.

Other Targets: Dustin Johnson ($9,800) – I honestly don’t know what to expect out of Johnson, but his potential places him firmly in the mix when it comes to GPP builds. Jordan Spieth ($9,000). GPP-only also.

$8,000 Range

Daniel Berger ($8,800) – Daniel Berger is a favorite in every matchup he has at the offshore books, which includes some against golfers in the $9,000 range. You are going to hear his name all week, but this isn’t an example of bad chalk. Berger is very much in play.

Sungjae Im ($8,300) – I would limit Sungjae Im to GPPs because of the trajectory he produces in my model, but he ranks top-five in this field for ball-striking and is also sixth in overall bogey avoidance.

Other Thoughts: If you are ballsy enough to play Tony Finau at $8,500, there is top-20 potential available. The floor is lower than the slew of balls on the bottom of the 17th, but I assume he is no higher than two percent owned. That sort of leverage always intrigues me. Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700).

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Abraham Ancer ($7,600) – WHAT THE HELL, JOEL!? I don’t think it needs further explanation that Joel blew my mind during the PGA Draftcast when he selected Abraham Ancer second overall. I love the pick, and Ancer is someone I will have exposure to in not only the top-30 market but also as an outright wager.

Russell Henley ($7,400) – Yes, the four missed cuts during his past five Players Championship appearances will provide some concern, but Russell Henley does have two top-25s at the track if we stretch the data back a little further. Henley has been known to run hot-and-cold throughout his career, and he enters the week sizzling with 13 straight made cuts.

Sergio Garcia ($7,400) – Sergio Garcia isn’t necessarily the first name I would circle in this range – that would belong to Ancer, Henley or Corey Conners, but the course history and current form should be enough to take a few risks on his elite skill set of par-five scoring and total driving.

Corey Conners ($7,300) – Corey Conners is a sizeable favorite inside of the head-to-head market against multiple $8,000 golfers, including Louis Oosthuizen at $8,700. This price is too shallow.

Si Woo Kim ($7,300) – Si Woo Kim was leading the PGA Tour in consecutive rounds of shooting par or better before a slip-up at the Genesis Invitational ended that streak. We know Kim is a Pete Dye specialist that has won at the track before, and I find it difficult to ignore him at anything sub-10 percent because of the upside he possesses.

Seamus Power ($7,200) – Volatile? Yes. Worth the risk? Potentially at 1-2 percent ownership. Power imploded at the API on Thursday, which eventually led to him missing his third cut in a row, but the metrics are not as bad as they might seem on the surface. I think we see him find success at Sawgrass, and it could open up the floodgates at his going rate.

Additional Thoughts: Jason Day ($7,500) – No, seriously. Day grades as a value this week. Paul Casey ($7,400), Talor Gooch ($7,200), Chris Kirk ($7,000), Alex Noren ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Keegan Bradley ($6,900), Brian Harman ($6,900), Sebastian Munoz ($6,700), Aaron Wise ($6,600), Thomas Pieters ($6,300)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.