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Do you want more golf coverage from me this week? Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I loved how Justin Thomas looked at the Players Championship, but man, what a brutal four rounds he had to encounter. I think we saw some of that letdown take place on Monday, and for that reason, I am going to go with Viktor Hovland as my top man on the board for the Valspar Championship. Hovland has posted three top-nine finishes in a row and ranks number one in this field for total driving.
Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – If Justin Thomas got the worst of the weather draw, Collin Morikawa also did by playing next to him over the opening two days. Morikawa couldn’t handle things quite as pristinely as Thomas did, missing the cut in a disappointing fashion, but the upside remains intact for one of the best ball-strikers in the world.
Other Consideration – I will be underweight to the field on Dustin Johnson.
$9,000 Range
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – Your weekly reminder that not all chalk is a trap. Louis Oosthuizen checks just about all the boxes that you would be hoping to see on a golfer that can get across the finish line, and after a ton of close calls on the PGA Tour over the years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends his winless drought on America soi at the Valspar.
Other Targets: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) are all in play. The margins are very thin between the group, but I likely would power rank them Hatton, Lowry, Fitzpatrick, Burns and Kokrak.
$8,000 Range
Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Webb Simpson can help open up builds for you if you find yourself getting caught in all the same chalk traps. While I wouldn’t recommend going bullishly overweight, you can get to 3-4x the field by using him in 15% of lineups.
Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,000)
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900) – Number one ranked golfer in this field in scrambling and sand save percentage.
Aaron Wise ($7,700) – Wise is the only golfer in the $7,000 range that ranks inside the top-15 players for upside.
Mito Pereira ($7,200) – I don’t like this ownership and will likely pivot elsewhere if these trends continue, but Mito Pereira has been stellar with his ball-striking over the past three events, gaining 4.3 shots to the field per start.
Adam Svensson ($7,200) – Adam Svensson is a pristine ball-striker that excels from 150 yards and beyond. His combination of par-five scoring and GIR percentage makes him a value in most markets, and I do want to note for the last time that he was stolen from me during the PGA Draftcast. My lawyer (Sia) is on the case.
Joel Dahmen ($7,100) – These less-than-driver courses are always where Joel Dahmen finds his best success. Thirteenth in my model for weighted scrambling.
Danny Willet ($7,100) – My two favorite longshot options in the $7,000 range that will be under five percent owned are Danny Willet ($7,100) and Adam Svensson ($7,200). Willet is a top-20 par-five scorer in the field and also ranks inside the top-five for short game metrics.
Taylor Moore ($7,000) – If you are trying to get cute on a play that nobody will see coming, Taylor Moore has a good combination of weighted proximity and overall tee-to-green data to cause some damage at two percent ownership.
Additional Thoughts: There are a handful of additional spots to look into for the week. You can use my model to see some of the other golfers that are showing as a value.
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Pat Perez ($6,900), J.J. Spaun ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Martin Kaymer ($6,800), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700), Troy Merritt ($6,600), Hank Lebioda ($6,600), Kramer Hickok ($6,500), Trey Mullinax ($6,400). That gives you a handful of dart throws to go along with some more popular choices.
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