PGA GPP

The PGA Tour is in Minnesota this week for the 3M Open. This is a relatively watered down field which should provide some opportunity for 2nd and 3rd tier golfers to go out and rack up the DFS points. I’ll be looking for ball strikers (OTT and APP) with an emphasis on APP. I’m also going to put a slight bump on PUTT as these greens are big and may be fast as the tournament progresses. More on the 3M tournament course and the players during tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. We will also be discussing Joel’s $100,000.00 hit and his near outright for one million dollars! Now, onto the Initial Picks for the 3M Open.

Tony Finau (10700) – I have no issue if you want to skip this range altogether, but I do like the upside of Finau.  He placed a very respectable 15^th at The Open Championship after missing two cuts in a row.  Prior to the two missed cuts he was striking the ball very well.  The putter may be an issue but he can get hot in that department.  A GPP play only.

Emiliano Grillo (9300) – I’m looking for ball strikers at The 3M and Grillo certainly fits that description.  His ARG game is terrible but that shouldn’t hurt him here.  His PUTT can get him into trouble, but he’s just about average in this field and that’s fine with me.  Tied for 3^rd here last year, and oh by the way, he was 12^th at the Open last week. 

Bubba Watson (9100) – I’m not a Bubba guy in general, but his ball striking has been great after a recent slump with the APP game.  Bubba finished 6^th at the Rocket Mortgage and 19^th at The Travelers and is in a weak field where he has to think he can win a tournament.  A GPP play only.

Stewart Cink (8700) – A great ball striker who has been great on APP as of late.  He’s coming off an MC at The Open which doesn’t bother me too much.  Prior to that he was your consummate cut maker and he made the cut at the 3M Open last year as well (finished an underwhelming 46^th).  I think the good year continues for Cink.

Maverick McNealy (8400) – This will be a birdie-fest and Mav is a birdie-maker.  He’s got 4 Top 30s in a row due to good ball striking and a good putter.  A very fair price here.

Charl Schwartl (8200) – The PUTT worries me as he’s just outside the Top 100 in this field last 24 rounds.  But his BS is Top 10 and his BOB% (‘Birdie or Better) is 35^th.  Charl isn’t usually on my radar, but these metrics are very solid.  He finished T3 last year at the 3M last year.

Luke List (8100) – Another bad PUTT on my 3M list (extremely lazy pun right there), but another guy who is really striking the ball and closing well.  He’s got two Top 5’s over his last two tournaments and finished 32^nd here last year.  I prefer List as a GPP play.

Doug Ghim (7900) – He gained almost 9 strokes T2G at the JDC which is insane.  Problem has always been the PUTT for Ghim, but the good news is he hasn’t been quite as bad in that department over the last three tournaments and he’s a better putter on Bentgrass. 

Hank Lebioda (7900) – Well, hello old friend.  Lebioda’s ball striking has been excellent for almost six weeks and he’s also killing it with the putter.  This has resulted in made cuts and Top 10 finishes.  Is this the new kid on the block or a flash in the pan?  I’m not sure to be honest, but there’s not chance I’m jumping ship in this field and at this price.

Mito Pereira (7600) – Haven’t rostered this KFT monster yet, but I think now is the time to dive in.  It appears that it has taken him a couple of tournaments to adjust to the PGA Tour, but last week’s 5^th place finish has him on the upward trajectory that I’m looking for.

Jhonattan Vegas (7500) – Great OTT and great on APP with an erratic putter than can get hot (albeit not very often).  In every GPP you need to be chasing upside and I think Vegas fits the description. 

Chez Reavie (7400) – You don’t need to be a bomber on this 3M Open track (but it certainly helps), but Reavie is really striking the ball well and he should be a very good course fit.  He’s made 5 out of 6 cuts.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 40-12. See you in Discord. 

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The year’s final major is upon us and it is at Royal St. George’s Golf Club in England for The Open Championship.  This is a Links style course characterized as a coastal course, with no protection from the elements and filled with deep bunkers and sand dunes.  Wind is likely to be big factor and we may need to wait until Wednesday night to determine where the edge is in that regard.  Note that this tournament locks around midnight Wednesday evening. Make sure you check our Discord Wednesday night before lock for all of the last minute information.  And check out the PGA team Tuesday night for our Live PGA Livestream for notes on all of the players and the course itself.

Brooks Koepka (10700) – I think Brooks and Jon Rahm have the best chance for an outright win at The Open, and therefore, I’ll take the slight discount that Brooks offers (I clearly like Rahm as well).  He has plenty of Links experience and a great track record at Opens and majors in general.  Over the last two tournaments, which included the US Open, he’s finished Top 5. 

Jordan Spieth (9700) – Great finishing positions, great strokes gained metrics, great Open experience and great price.  Spieth epitomizes the idea of value.  No one is a lock in this tournament, but can’t deny the value of Spieth.

Louis Oothuizen (9300) – Speaking of great track records in majors, there’s no disputing that Louis is usually completely dialed in at majors and this week should be no different.  He’s also been in good form with 2^nd place finishes in his last two majors (US Open and PGA Championship).

Patrick Cantlay (8900) – He’s been very solid after his slight slump and this feels like one of many value plays in this tournament.  Cantlay won the Memorial (kinda, Rahm WD) and he has Open experience. 

Patrick Reed (8800) – We’ll need to wait and see how ownership plays out, but I think Reed is very sneaky as he’s the type of golfer that will map out and navigate this course easier than most.  His recent form is average, but his Open experience is very strong.

Matt Fitzpatrick (7900) – If he ends up being chalky, I’ll likely pivot as I’m never “inlove” with Matt Fitzpatrick, but he’s another guy that shouldn’t have trouble navigating tough conditions and he just had a great showing in a tough Scottish Open field. 

Jason Day (7700) – A GPP play only and this write up assumes four days of health, but Day could be a great play if people are shy to use him.  His Open and Links experience are great and he’s coming in with good form.

Daniel Berger (7400) – This price is pretty eye-popping and while he lacks some of the experience on Links style courses that I’m looking for, the value is too good to ignore.  Berger rates out very well for me and belongs in the 8k range.

Garrick Higgo (7400) – He’s been great on the Euro Tour and the adjustment to the PGA Tour has also been easier than expected.  I don’t think he’ll be intimidated by this major.   

Harris English (7300) – He has middling results in Opens in the past, but he has made 4 of 5 cuts.  His recent form is excellent (1^st, 3^rd and 14^th over his last three tournaments) and I think he’s another guy in the low 7k range that can offer plenty of upside.

Branden Grace (7200) – He’s been pretty dialed in lately and that shows in improving SG metrics and impressive finishing positions.  He also has the requisite Links experience.  A good course fit at a good value. 

Lucas Herbert (6800) – He’s 3^rd on the European Tour in SG: Total and that’s shown in his finishing positions.  He’s coming off a T4 at last week’s Scottish Open so the form is there.  His Open experience is limited but he certainly has Links experience.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 38-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The Open Championship late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

The PGA Tour is at TPC Deere Run this week for the John Deere Classic. This Par 71 7000+ yard track will feature a watered down field as most of the elite players are across the Atlantic at the Scottish Open. This week my focus will be on BS and APP, particularly from proximities of 150 yards and below, and once again, I’ll be looking for guys who can get hot with the putter. Join us Tuesday night at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with much more on the course and the players (don’t forget to hit the ‘Like’ button on YouTube!). Now let’s get to my Initial Picks for the John Deere Classic.

Sungjae Im (10700) – Really like how he’s rounding into form.  Earlier this year the APP game was just way off, but it’s been good for 3 weeks in a row now and he’s gaining everywhere else.  It’s rare that I’m on Sungjae but it feels like the right time.

Brian Harman (10400) – Somehow this feels risky as his APP game can get dicey here and there.  But those instances are few and far between and I like how he sets up at this course.  This is another guy that I’m not normally on and I question his upside, but in this field the upside is there.

Kevin Streelman (9700) – I’m hopeful that the MC at the Travelers keeps ownership down as Streelman has been lights out.  He rates out perfectly for this course and is in great form. 

Seamus Power (9000) – Only question mark for Power is his spotty OTT game and his increased pricetag, but he has been great everywhere else and I think this is actually a fair price for him in this field.  He’s played the John Deere three times and has three made cuts. 

Patton Kizzire (8900) – This guy can get red hot with APP and PUTT and that’s a great combination for taking a tournament down.  I worry a bit about his volatility OTT so I’m endorsing Kizzire for GPP only. 

Maverick McNealy (8800) – Three top 30’s in a row and the ability to go low at any moment.  Just like Kizzire he’s got some volatility attached to him, but the upside is there.

Hank Lebioda (8400) – A great ball striker as of late who has been absolutely dominant with the putter.  How long will it last for Hammerin Hank no one knows, but I’ve been riding this train longer than most so I’m going to stay on it longer than most.

Kyle Stanley (7900) – I love Stanley but I need to offer the disclaimer that he is high risk due to a horrific putter.  Over his last 30 tournaments (dates back to January 2020) he’s only gained with the PUTT 5 times.  That’s pretty staggering and it makes him unsafe, but if ownership happens to be low, I’ll jump in.

Beau Hossler (7800) – We were on him last week and I’ll be on him again this week.  He’s got three Top 25’s in a row and is a nice course fit.  Finished 26^th at the John Deere in 2019 in his only appearance.

Satoshi Kodaira (7000) – Kodaira broke our hearts last week with a back nine which led to an MC.  I still like his ball striking and putting overall and he appears to be a better course fit this week.  I’ll stick with Kodaira while others jump ship.

Adam Schenk (6900) – Another low end golfer we were on last week who made the cut and paid off his price.  Schenk has good history here and has been striking the ball pretty well.  The putter can be up and down, but willing to take the chance at this price.

 JJ Spaun (6600) – If you need to go super low in price, JJ is a good option as his ball striking has been good as of late and we may be catching him on the rise.  It’s obviously very risky down here in this range. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 38-11. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The John Deere late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

The PGA Tour is in Detroit this week for The Rocket Mortgage Classic. This Par 72 7330 track will favor bombers, but it is certainly not a pre-requisite to be long. My focus will be on OTT and APP somewhat equally and I’ve honed in a bit on APP proximities between 75-150. Finally, I’m looking for golfers who have shown that they have the potential to get hot with the putter. We will have more on the course and all the players on the Win Daily PGA Livestream Tuesday night at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for The Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Bryson DeChambeau (11400) – Truth is I’m not huge on Bryson this week, but I felt the need to put him in the article because his upside is massive.  I don’t love his APP game from shorter proximities, but he checks out everywhere else.  Not a ton of shares for me, but I will play him.

Webb Simpson (10400) – We haven’t seen him much this year and he’s not very long OTT and I’m hoping that keeps ownership down.  Webb is only 9^th in my model, but I see him as fully rested and ready to attack the rest of 2021.  His T2G game is elite and he’s also a surprising 5^th SG Par 5 last 24 rounds. He finished 8^th here last year.  I’ll note I also like Hideki and Reed in this elite range.

Jason Kokrak (9500) – Number 1 in my model.   He’s great in the BS department and can get scorching hot with the putter.  Only weakness is ARG, but I don’t think that will be a big issue for him this week.  All systems go on Kokrak.

Gary Woodland (8600) – In spite of last week’s MC, it feels like Woodland’s game is back on the rise.  He rates out very high in my model and I’m happy to be early on him.  A GPP play only.

Garrick Higgo (8300) – He’s gained BS three tournaments in a row and it’s mainly the ARG game that has led to the consecutive MCs.  He’s gained PUTT in 3 of the 4 tournaments he’s played on the PGA Tour.  Plenty of upside here for Higgo at The Rocket Mortgage.

Emiliano Grillo (8200) – Another guy who had a somewhat surprising MC last week at the Travelers, but I like the fact that he is always solid with the BS and the fact that he can get hot with the putter (it doesn’t happen often, but it’s starting to happen more and more).

Cameron Tringale (8100) – Was a DFS darling a few short months ago, but the game has fallen off a bit.  He also missed the cut last week at the Travelers, but overall, I like what I’m seeing from his game, particularly with the putter and the shorter APP proximities. 

Brendon Todd (7900) – Doesn’t feel like the best course fit, but I like what I’m seeing from him lately.  He gained almost 6 strokes T2G last week but finished a pedestrian 30^th due to a poor putter.  The BS is turning around and historically his putter can get hot. 

Hank Lebioda (7200) – Hammerin’ Hank came through for us last week with a Win Daily Secret Weapon Special (100+ DK points from a guy who was 1.5% owned is gigantic).  His final score was a little misleading as he gained almost 6 strokes PUTT and wasn’t great BS.  I expect the BS to bounce back and if the putter stays hot, watch out.

Beau Hossler (7000) – Either the last couple of tournaments were a mirage or Beau has found something with two Top 20 finishes in a row.  In a Rocket Mortgage tournament that doesn’t have much talent below 7500 I’m willing to take a chance that Hossler has found something. 

Satoshi Kodaira (6800) – Had a couple bad days at the Travelers after a red-hot start on Thursday, but still managed to place 36^th.  Prior to last week he had gained BS in four straight tournaments.  He has also gained PUTT in a big way in four straight.  This is great upside for a guy priced this low.

Adam Schenk (6500) – His metrics aren’t great, but he has managed to make cuts lately (he’s made 6 of his last 8 cuts but hasn’t had a Top 20 since the Valspar.  Add to that he’s finished 30^th and 42^nd on this track and there’s some arguable value at this price.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 38-10. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The Rocket Mortgage late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

The PGA Tour heads back to the east coast for The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut. This week we are TPC River Highlands which is a shorter Pete Dye track Par 70, measuring just over 6800 yards. I’m looking for golfers who are great BS (‘ball striking’ – a metric that combines OTT and APP). You’ll also want to find guys who have the ability to get hot with the putter. More on course dynamics and proximities on tomorrow’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. Let’s get into my Initial Picks at The Travelers.

Dustin Johnson (11400) – Ball striking was good last week, but the putting was pretty pedestrian, with the exception of one round where he gained almost 5 strokes.  Either way, I feel like the game is starting to come around and if the upward trajectory continues, he could really do some damage here.

Patrick Cantlay (10400) – Cantlay had a horrible time with the putter earlier this year, losing strokes PUTT in six tournaments in a row.  Since that time he’s strung together two very positive putting performances since then (The Memorial and The U.S. Open).  APP game was a little off last week at the U.S. Open, but at the Memorial he gained almost 10 strokes ball striking. 

Paul Casey (9900) – There’s a lot to like about the 9k range, but Casey feels like one of the safer plays with upside.  He has a great track record at The Travelers and he’s coming in with great form.  The putter hasn’t been great as of the last few tournaments so he’ll need to be at least average there.

Scottie Scheffler (9600) – He can get red hot with the putter and red hot with the ball striking and that makes him a perfect candidate for a birdie fest at The Travelers.  Just like anyone else, he can get cold, but the instances where Scottie has been cold are far fewer than his hot streaks as of late.  I’ll note that I think Wolff is an interesting GPP play if ownership is low.  I’ll note that Ancer and Streelman are also good cash options in the 9k range.

Harris English (8200) – His history here is flat out bad, but he really is a different golfer now versus when he last played at The Travelers in 2019.  English has really bounced back from a tough stretch earlier this year.  That tough stretch was due, in part, to a back injury that appears to have resolved.  He’s finished Top 15 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments and he’s coming off a 3^rd place finish at the U.S. Open.  Great value here.

Keegan Bradley (7900) – Keegan hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the PGA Championship…in 2020!!  That’s 20 tournaments in a row (it’s likely 22 in a row as there were two tournaments in that stretch where he finished 4^th and 32^nd but the rounds weren’t measured).  Historically he’s been a bad putter but has actually gained with the putter in 6 of his last 8 tournaments.  I should note that he’s also from this area.  Lock him in for cash games and feel free to give him the free square treatment in GPP.

Aaron Wise (7400) – He’s gained ball striking in 11 out of the last 13 tournaments.  His big issue during that entire stretch was the putter (lost strokes putting in 9 out of 10 tournaments including losing over 10 strokes putting at the Waste Management).   However, Wise has gained strokes putting in his last two tournaments and I’m going to assume he’s found something.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – He’s been losing strokes OTT but he does tend to keep the ball in the fairway. I need to admit the OTT game scares me a bit, but I think he’s a good enough ball striker overall to overcome it.  His putter has turned a corner and I like the value he presents here at The Travelers.

Kyle Stanley (7000) – This is a leap of faith as Kyle Stanley simply can’t putt.  However the OTT and APP game are definitely in good form.  Somehow, he’s made the cut in 5 straight tournaments in spite of losing significant strokes putting in 4 of those 5.  If he finds a hot putter he’s gonna race up the leaderboard but don’t go heavy on Stanley and he is strictly a GPP play.

Hank Lebioda (6700) – Play has been a little erratic OTT and APP over the last few tournaments but he’s managed to gain BS in each of the last three tournaments.  Add to that his putter can get hot at times (gained significant strokes putting in 3 of the last 4).  He’s made four cuts in a row which immediately followed 4 missed cuts in a row, which tells me that Hammerin’ Hank has found something and is trending upward.

Satoshi Kodaira (6500) – His main issue earlier this year was a bad putter but he’s managed to gain 4 or more strokes putting in his last three tournaments (that’s a significant amount).  He’s gained ball striking in 5 tournaments in a row.  The ARG game is spotty but I don’t think that will be a big factor here.  A good option if you’re dipping down into this range. 

Vincent Whaley (6400) – Somehow managed to lose over 5 strokes on APP at the Palmetto, but the good news is that kept his price down in the abyss this week.  Don’t forget this guy made 9 cuts in a row prior to the Palmetto so you could definitely do worse. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 37-10. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all the late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.