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PGA DFS

The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome to The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections, brought to you by WinDailySports.com, this week we are back in Florida for the tourney at Copperhead, one of the toughest PGA courses that’s not a major or WGC, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey and Corey Conners are all top favorites to win. Accuracy and approach are the keys to taming this pit viper of a course, where holes 16, 17 and 18, known as the snake pit, have made grown PGA golfers cry.

We talk about actionable data, and i have some for you. Conners, Kokrak and Kirk are the chalk in this contest, no matter what format you are playing in, DO NOT roster all 3 in the same lineup. There is a better than 22% chance that one makes the top 20, any two drops that to less than 14 %, and all 3 drops it to less than 4%, which means if you play all 3, you have a 96% chance of giving away your entry fee. Numerical advantages (pivots) are Rose, Scheffler, and Oosti.

Last night on the podcast Sia and Joel were discussing how powerful their outright plays were, in fact they were discussing betting their parents mortgage on the winner, and how selfish it would be to not take advantage of such an opportunity, followed by where they would stay should the unthinkable happen and the bet not pay off. It got down to where inflatable mattresses on sale for $50.00 would be a viable answer, as well as parking the mattresses in that little cubbyhole under the stairs. “well, mom and dad, sorry it didn’t work out, here’s your new digs, which you have to share with Snuffles the cat, don’t pay any attention to the hairballs or shedding, and if she yaks all over your mattress, they are washable, if you don’t mind, just throw a load of my clothes in as well.” It’s wonderful to know that your children have a backup plan in case things go south. Going south gets you to Palm Harbor, home of the Copperhead course, where ownership can mean the difference between life altering money and a yak filled hairball mattress. Let’s take a look at the Valspar Ownership Projections.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Conners, Corey	25.1	9600
Kokrak, Jason	22.9	8700
Kirk, Chris	21.1	8200
Thomas, Justin	17.9	11500
Henley, Russell	17.8	9000
Im, Sungjae	17.3	9200
Reed, Patrick	15.9	10300
Ancer, Abraham	15.1	9300
Johnson, Dustin	14.8	11200
Casey, Paul	14.4	10000
Niemann, Joaquin	14.1	9100
Grillo, Emiliano	14.1	8300
Palmer, Ryan	14.0	8500
Hoffman, Charlie	13.7	8600
Tringale, Cameron	13.1	8400
Bradley, Keegan	12.4	7900
Rose, Justin	12.0	8800
Oosthuizen, Louis	11.9	9500
Hovland, Viktor	10.9	10500
Glover, Lucas	10.3	7700
Homa, Max	10.2	8100
McCarthy, Denny	9.9	7500
Streelman, Kevin	9.8	7800
Scheffler, Scottie	9.3	9800
Davis. Cameron	9.3	7500
Griffin, Lanto	8.7	7400
Ghim, Doug	8.5	7300
Gooch, Talor	8.5	8000
Na, Kevin	8.5	8000
Burns, Sam	8.2	7900
Horsfield, Sam	7.9	7400
Howell III, Charlie	7.0	7700
Huh, John	6.9	7000
Woodland, Gary	6.4	7800
Seiffert, Chase	6.4	6600
Moore, Ryan	5.9	6900
Hadwin, Adam	5.8	7600
Schwartzel, Charl	5.3	7100
NeSmith, Matthew	5.1	7100
Poulter, Ian	4.6	7400
Watson, Bubba	4.6	8900
Noren, Alex	4.5	7300
Stenson, Henrik	4.4	7000
Hahn, James	4.3	6900
Uihlein, Peter	4.1	7300
Johnson, Zack	3.8	7200
Kisner, Kevin	3.8	7700
Mitchell, Keith	3.7	7000
Hoge, Tom	3.7	7000
List, Luke	3.7	7000
Van Rooyen, Erik	3.5	7600
Hughes, Mackenzie	3.3	7400
Laird, Martin	3.0	6800
Villegas, Camilo	2.9	6700
Sabbatini, Rory	2.7	7100
Snedeker, Brandt	2.7	7300
Willett, Danny	2.7	7200
Sloan, Roger	2.5	6500
Grace, Branden	2.5	7600
Kizzire, Patton	2.4	7200
Perez, Pat	2.4	6500
Lewis, Tom	2.4	6900
Long, Adam	2.2	6600
Mickelson, Phil	2.2	7200
Ryder, Sam	2.0	6700
Stallings, Scott	2.0	6700
Redman, Doc	1.9	6600
Bramlett, Joseph	1.9	6300
Schenk, Adam	1.8	6800
Hubbard, Mark	1.8	6300
Werenski, Richy	1.8	6900
Vegas, Jhonattan	1.6	7100
Bryan, Wesley	1.6	6400
Hadley, Chesson	1.5	6200
Whaley, Vincent	1.4	6400
Stuard, Brian	1.3	6500
Piercy, Scott	1.3	6600
Hojgaard, Rasmus	1.3	7000
Hoag, Bo	1.3	6500
Poston, JT	1.3	7200
Knox, Russell	1.3	7100
Lee, KH	1.2	6800
Percy, Cameron	1.2	6500
An, B	1.2	6600
Clark, Wyndham	1.2	6900
Norlander, Henrik	1.1	6600
Stanley, Kyle	1.1	6800
Reavie, Chez	1.0	6700
Putnam, Andrew	1.0	6800
Rodgers, Patrick	1.0	6400
Duncan, Tyler	0.9	6600
Lee, Danny	0.8	6200
Armour, Ryan	0.8	6500
Dufner, Jason	0.7	6400
Lovemark, Jamie	0.7	6400
Chappell, Kevin	0.7	6500
Baddeley, Aaron	0.7	6300
Burgoon, Bronson	0.7	6200
Cook, Austin	0.7	6300
McDowell, Graeme	0.7	6700
Landry ,Andrew	0.6	6400
Trahan, DJ	0.6	6000
Hagy, Brandon	0.6	6500
Koepka, Chase	0.5	6000
Ventura, Kris	0.5	6700
Taylor, Vaughn	0.4	6300
Malnati, Peter	0.4	6400
Cabrera-Bello, Rafa	0.4	6800
Hearn, David	0.4	6300
Brehm, Ryan	0.4	6100
Gay, Brian	0.4	6100
Holmes, JB	0.4	6600
Murray, Grayson	0.4	6100
Kang, Sung	0.4	6200
Herman, Jim	0.3	6200
Hossler, Beau	0.3	6200
Walker, Jimmy	0.3	6100
Tway, Kevin	0.3	6200
Donald, Luke	0.3	6000
Lebioda, Hank	0.3	6200
Hickok, Kramer	0.3	6300
Kraft, Kelly	0.2	6200
Swafford, Hudson	0.2	6400
Potter Jr., Ted	0.2	6100
Kodaira, Satoshi	0.2	6200
Wilkinson, Tim	0.1	6300
Choi, KJ	0.1	6000
McGirt, William	0.1	6100
Van Pelt, Bo	0.1	6000
Spaun, JJ	0.1	6500
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	0.0	6400
ALL OTHERS	0.0

These are my picks for the Valspar Championship

Top Tier: Patrick Reed

Mid Tier: Rose, Scheffler

Low Tier: Moore, Reavie

Out in Left Play: Watson

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: Horsfield *Risky

Thanks so much for reviewing this article, we sure do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Patrick and Antonio to help determine your picks and lineups. Do not forget that Sia’s Secret Weapon will be unleashed upon the Discord faithful later on tonight !

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

SicilyKid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Valspar Championship DFS Breakdown

Jon Jansen 4 years ago

written by Jon Jansen

The Valspar can be a tough course and can test all parts of a golfers game. So which golfers come out on top? Found out as Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck give a full look of the tournament with The Valspar Championship DFS Breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWWtepB6Mb4

Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Valspar Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour is back in Florida for one last time in 2021 and the field will be given a true test at the Valspar Championship. The Valspar is a tough course that will hurt you if you’re not in the fairway and will test all parts of your game. This week I’m focusing on APP, Driving Accuracy and ARG more than the the other metrics. As for APP, I’m taking a hard look at proximities between 175-200 and 200+ as a lot of shots will come from that range. Tune into our Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on all the golfers in this field.

Dustin Johnson (11200) – I don’t love the elite range this week, but I do like the fact that DJ will likely float under the radar at the Valspar Championship as he has been unimpressive over the last couple of months. In spite of his recent struggles, over the last 36 rounds he still rates out 5^th in my model.

Corey Conners (9600) – Will fit nicely into your cash games, but likely to garner some high ownership so be mindful of that in your GPP’s. Conners has been striking the ball better than everyone on tour and the short game is really coming around. He rates out very high in my model as expected.

Tyrrell Hatton (9400) – Hatton is starting to come around but he has been plagued by inconsistency. With that said, he’s inside the Top 10 in my model and is excellent in the notable proximity ranges (long iron play). He is a big risk ARG and that could hurt him here, unless he’s striping those irons like he has been. I’m willing to take the leap in GPP’s.

Russell Henley (9000) – I’m looking for guys who keep it in the fairway, are great on APP and are good on APP from long distances. Henley checks all the boxes and rates out very high on my model. A good price here and a solid cash and GPP play.

Justin Rose (8800) – I’m a bit surprised I’m writing Rose up as I haven’t rostered him in years. It’s pretty clear the game is coming around and he’s gained strokes in a significant manner in three tournaments in a row. There’s no reason to believe his game won’t translate well to the tough test at the Valspar Championship so I’m happy to roster him this week in GPP’s, but I’ll stay away in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (8400) – Certainly seems like a low price for Tringale considering that his ball striking has been great all year. Part of the reason for this low price is his terrible history at this tournament (missed all three cuts the last three times he’s played here), but I’m willing to overlook that and hope the ball striking stays in good order.

Denny McCarthy (7500) – I think Denny is a solid GPP play this week as you may be catching him early while his ball striking game begins to rise. The putter has always been his strong suit but the ball striking has made a bit of a comeback after a terrible stretch a few months back. He finished 9^th here last year and recent form has been great.

Lucas Glover (7400) – He will need to find a hot putter to contend on Sunday, but outside of his struggles with the flat stick, he has been good. His APP stats this year are good, but not great, but he looks like a player on the rise so I’ll ride the wave.

Rory Sabbatini (7100) – His stats don’t necessarily provide a beautiful picture, but he’s a smart and plotting player that should fit well on this course. If history is any indication, you are getting value with Rory here as he’s finished 18^th and 5^th in his last two efforts at the Valspar Championship.

Kyle Stanley (6800) – Rates out 30^th in my model and checks most of the boxes, particularly on APP. The big issue with Stanley will always be the putter. To be clear, he’s a horrible putter, but he is actually on his best putting surface at the Valspar Championship (Bermuda) so if there were a time to take a chance on putter regression with Stanley, it’s here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and take advantage of the promotional offers at windailysports.com.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Zurich Classic Final Ownership Projections

cdenny99@hotmail.com 4 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Zurich Classic Final Ownership Projections, brought to you by WinDailySports.com, the teams of Rham/Palmer, Cantlay/Schauffele, and Morikawa/Wolf are all top favorites to win. The first two teams mentioned above will be heavily owned.

Due to the changes brought about by Draftkings for the team format, we will not have ownership projections, what we do have is information on the teams ability to make the cut and will present that. Our ownership accuracy would have been around 36% for this format, we stay in the 96.9 to 99+ % for all our ownership projections and will have the solid numbers you expect next week when stroke play resumes. I have some associates out west who spent 28 hours straight trying to bring you the right numbers, we will not ask you to risk your hard earned money for just a 1 in 3 guess.

The following represents the percentage for a team to make the cut, not all teams are listed, the ones closest to the 50% to make the cut are as follows:

Harrington/Putnam 45.92% to make the cut

Taylor/Hojgaard 46.75%

Martin/Hadley 47.84%

Merritt/Streb 48.27%

Hossler/Hoge 48.34%

Hoffman/Watney 50.27%

Baddeley/Sloan 50.33%

Piercy/Bhatia 50.71%

Duncan/Schenk 50.87%

Kisner/Brown 50.98%

Jones/Spaun 51.08%

Teater/Straka 52.41%

Stanley/Lee 52.48%

Thompson/Gordon 54.19%

Laird/Taylor 54.35%

Uihlein/Werenski 55.16%

NeSmith/Sieffert 56.05%

Suh/Ghim 59.11%

Castro/Tringale 60.14%

Lewis/Pieters 61.05%

Bradley/Steele 61.40%

Hovland/Ventura 62.92%

Kirk/Todd 64.66%

Horschel/Burns 66.73%

Homa/Gooch 69.6%

Cantlay/Schauffele 82.6%

Palmer/Rahm 83.51%

The above is a cross section of teams from 50/50 to make the cut, to better than 8-1 for Rham/Palmer.

These are my picks for the Zurich Classic

Top Tier: Rahm/Palmer……not even close

Mid Tier: Suh/Ghim

Low Tier: Straka/ Teater

Out in Left Play: Laird/Taylor

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: Garnett/Stallings* *Risky

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

SicilyKid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this PGA DFS picks column, we’re looking for all the right team at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and helping you navigate this team event!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Solid field of 160 golfers (80 teams)
Eight players out of the world top 20 teeing it up this week
Only one teammate per team is allowed on your DK lineup
36-hole Cut: Top 35 teams and ties play the weekend
2019 champion: Jon Rahm/Ryan Palmer
The course: TPC Louisiana (Pete Dye design)
- Par 72: 7,425 yards
- Small TifEagle Bermuda greens
- Iron play again an emphasis at these tough par 4s
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):

Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,700) – I doubt these golfers will find much trouble off the tee and they look like the best combo of ball-striking and ability to capitalize on opportunities. Cantlay hasn’t played well recently, but in a team event, it’s easy to throw that out and look at the fact that both of these players are in the OWGR Top 10, and have the most combined talent in the field.

John Rahm/Ryan Palmer (DK $11,700) – They mastered this format last year, and Ryan Palmer lines up as a good proximity golfer from outside 200 yards (he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour). Combine their past success with Rahm’s overall talent and ability and you could have another winning combo in New Orleans. They’re a solid play in all formats.

Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (DK $11,100) – These two were President’s Cup teammates and they both play the same ball – which is a bonus when they get to alternate stroke team play. Smith has shown an affinity for Pete Dye course and ranks fifth in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana, where he was a part of the winning team in 2017 alongside Jonas Blixt. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities every day for this team, which has a shot at winning.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa/Matthew Wolff (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $9,500 to $10,900):

Scottie Scheffler/Bubba Watson (DK $10,900) – I have no doubts about the team chemistry with these two birdie-makers, and while Watson has struggled in recent weeks, he’s a team player who seems to be more at ease when he’s outside his head. Scheffler’s ability to provide ample scoring opportunities will be a welcome sight for Bubba.

Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett (DK $10,300) – The English pair complement each other’s games quite well, with Hatton’s ball-striking and Willett’s putting possibly providing a winning combination of skill sets. I may not be overweight on the field if they get popular, but I’ll have shares.

Chris Kirk/Brendan Todd (DK $10,100) – A team that might end up making my single entry GPP lineups, Kirk/Todd (we can call them the UGA connection as former Georgia Bulldogs) should make the cut and give us some possible upside if they can get hot with the putters. They’ll be in play on these holes and we know Todd likes the small Bermuda greens and these types of “short-game forward” setups.

Max Homa/Talor Gooch (DK $9,900) – Both players can make birdies in bunches and that’s a good thing in team play. It’ll be easier to avoid big numbers that plague these golfers occasionally, and the sub-$10K tag is alluring in such a tight pricing format. The team fares well in combined models and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.

Victor Hovland/Kristoffer Ventura (DK $9,700) – They played together at Oklahoma State and a quick review of the metrics indicates another complementary pairing here. Hovland ranks at or near the top of the field in SG:OTT, Opps Gained and BoB%, while Ventura is one of the better putters on tour, ranking well overall and on Bermuda. This could be a sneaky team.

Also consider: Tony Finau/Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel/Sam Burns

Value PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $9,400):

Brendan Steele/Keegan Bradley (DK $9,300) – Steele is the better putter and longer driver, and Bradley the better ball-striker, and Steele had a Top 10 at this event in 2018. It’s not an exciting team, but one that might be lingering come Sunday and make a run at a Top 5.

Thomas Pieters/Tom Lewis (DK $9,200) –Another EURO connection that combines experience and form (Pieters) with birdie-making and motivation (Lewis). Lewis wants his PGA Tour card and Pieters is motivated in his own right – looking for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. Sia had them in his initial picks and I’m firmly aboard this pairing as well.

Lucas Glover/Chez Reavie (DK $8,800) – I’m most worried about this group’s putting statistics, which lag far behind the ball-striking metrics, but that tends to get mitigated a bit in team events, when two heads are usually better than one of reading putts and bouncing back from the bad holes.

Jason Kokrak/Pat Perez (DK $8,300) – Both of these golfers are PGA Tour “nice guys” who have had mixed results in 2020-21, with Perez hitting a bit of a plateau and Kokrak breaking through with his first PGA Tour win in October. If DK gave out points for good vibes, they’d be priced even higher, but I’m loving the discount in the value range.

Cameron Tringale/Roberto Castro (DK $8,000) – Tringale, who’s had a solid 2020-21 season, is third on my model and while Roberto Castro struggles with consistent play, he’s No. 18 in the field for SG:APP at this golf course. I’m liking the price and upside, but it’s risky in single-entry GPP.

More value golfers to consider: Louis Oosthuizen/Charl Schwartzel, Erik van Rooyen/Wyndham Clark, Kevin Kisner/Scott Brown, Doug Ghim/Justin Suh

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $7,900 and under):

Matthew NeSmith/Chase Seiffert (DK $7,500) – This team will be very chalky, and they seem to be mispriced considering the talent level. They’re on a bit of a pricing island and seem to be one of the only exciting options between $7-8K.

Richy Werenski/Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – I’m glad that Joel brought these two (and Michael Thompson/Will Gordon) up in the Breakdown. Both teams caught my eye looking for cheap options that have upside, and I like the ability of Werenski/Uihlein to make a bunch of birdies in best ball and outperform their affordable salary.

Scott Piercy/Ashkay Bhatia (DK $6,900) – It’s kind of an off-the-wall play considering the differing general makeup of these two golfers, but they could surprise some folks in the first couple of days, when they seem to play their best golf. The opportunities should be there, and Piercy won with Horschel in 2018, so they’re worth a look in GPPs.

Bo Hoag/Wes Roach (DK $6,300) – It’s a dart throw for sure,because neither of these players is known for their consistency, but Hoag projects well for this golf course on the mixed model (No. 36 overall) and Roach ranks No. 22 in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana.

Additional GPP punts: Michael Thompson/Will Gordon (GPP), Sepp Straka/Josh Teator, Tom Hoge/Beau Hossler (GPP), Roger Sloan/Aaron Baddeley, James Hahn/Martin Trainer

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Zurich Classic DFS Breakdown

Jon Jansen 4 years ago

written by Jon Jansen

Juuuust the two of us! The Zurich Classic is the lone event on the PGA Tour that is a team event and the team of Sia Nejad and Joel give their plays on the Zurich Classic DFS Breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUUD8MQp_Pk

Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Zurich Classic: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

This week we have the lone team event on the PGA Tour as 160 golfers make their way to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. This event will feature two days of best ball (Thursday and Saturday) and two days of alternate shot (Friday and Sunday). For detailed explanations on the format, please join us in the Win Daily Sports Golf Discord or on tonight’s PGA Livestream on YouTube and Twitter. As for the course itself, I’m looking for accurate drivers and APP more than anything. The course isn’t particularly long so driving distance, while helpful, isn’t a huge advantage. Because it’s a team event, there is certainly a different approach this week, but more on that on the Livestream (and podcast).

Rahm/Palmer (11500) – Good friends and defending Zurich Classic champions and both in very good form. They are 2^nd in total strokes gained in this field (Xander and Cantlay are 1^st) and are coming in with great recent form.

Watson/Scheffler (10900) – If you’re looking for upside you may have found a home with this pairing. Watson and Scheffler rate out at 3^rd in strokes gained total and 3^rd in T2G. They are both in good form this year and I think they’ll play well together.

Kirk/Todd (10100) – Kirk and Todd don’t have a lot of flash and may come up short on birdies relative to some of the heavier hitters, but I’ll go ahead and lean on their precision and accuracy and hope for some hot putting. They grade out as 11^th in total strokes gained (combined averages) relative to the field and have been making cuts and finishing strong all year.

Oosthuizen/Schwartzl (9400) – These two South Africans are also good friends and are very familiar with each other’s games. The weak link here of course is Schwartzl, but he’s been in pretty good form lately, and coincidentally, he and Oosthuizen finished in a tie for 26^th at the Masters.

Bradley/Steele (9300) – In 5 of the last 6 tournaments Keegan has been inside the Top 30 including a 10^th at the API. Steele was bad at Valero but hasn’t missed a cut this year (9 in a row) and took 3^rd at the Honda Classic and 4^th at Sony in January. They grade out at 18^th in total strokes gained and 7^th T2G meaning they have plenty of upside if they find a hot putter.

Pieters/Lewis (9200) – In his last four tournaments Pieters has finished inside the Top 15 (two on the PGA tour and two on the European tour). Lewis has made 4 cuts in a row and coming off a Top 25 at RBC. Both of these guys can get hot at any moment and should be under the radar from an ownership standpoint.

Ghim/Suh (8000) – Not a big fan of the 8k range overall, but these two present some value due to their ball striking. Suh hasn’t been great so far on the PGA Tour but he is making cuts. With that said, he limped into a 61^st place finish at the KFT event last week which does concern me. Ghim’s ball striking has been elite but his short game has been bad so the hope is that the ball striking for both of these guys remains strong.

NeSmith/Seiffert (7500) – Maybe a bit of a misprice here as they grade out at 17^th in total strokes gained and 4^th in this field on APP (again, combined averages). As the numbers indicate these two have been great in the ball striking department.

Straka/Teater (7200) – Another lower end option that will be off most radars. Teater has played a total of 6 tournaments this year on the PGA and KFT tour (4/2) and made the cut in each tournament. Add to that Straka’s ability to catch fire and you’ve got some upside here.

Piercy/Bhatia (6900) – Throwing darts a bit but Piercy has been making cuts and Bhatia has shown that he can catch fire for a round here and there. This is a sneaky upside play but not recommended for cash.

Sloan/Baddelley (6500)– Sloan MC at Valero but 3 Top 25’s immediately before that. Baddeley, since February has made 2 PGA cuts in a row and two KFT cuts in a row, including 5^th place last week at MGM Resorts Championship – the same tourney Suh was 61^st in).

Don’t forget to tune into the Zurich Classic PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST on Tuesday and don’t forget to subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The RBC Heritage Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome to The RBC Heritage Final Ownership Projections, brought to you by WinDailySports.com. Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay are all top favorites to win. There have been a few surprises in the last decade at this tournament so beware. There was also a question on the show last night about golfers being mentally and physically exhausted after the Masters, and how they would do in the RBC.

In the last 10 years, anyone that played 4 rounds at the Masters the week before has only won….once. That means if you pick somebody that played all 4 rounds last week, they have a 90% chance of losing. In 2018 Kodaira is the only champion who played 4 rounds the week before. 9 of the last 10 winners either didn’t play or they missed the cut. Most of the top 5 fall in that same category as well. It does not mean I won’t be rostering golfers who played last week, but if it’s a close call, I will take the golfer who is better rested.

Jim Furyk has won here three times, he has 20% odds to make the top 20. The only problem is his insurance company allegedly has him at 42% to be walking the course, look up, then fall over dead. Tough choice.

Sia got on Nick last week for his Hideki pick, then offered Nick a free shot at him on the livestream last night, Nick declined, citing that you can’t run your mouth at a guy with such nice hair. The hair wins again. To win again you’re going to need the ownership projections for this week, so let’s dive in.

Golfer Ownership % Salary

Simpson, Webb 25.4 10700
Ancer, Abraham 24.3 8900
Fitzpatrick, Mathew 20.6 9100
Kirk, Chris 20.5 7500
Kim, Si Woo 18.9 7900
Zalatoris,Will 18.5 9700
Harman, Brian 18.5 8700
Hatton, Tyrrell 18.0 9500

Berger, Daniel 17.2 10000
Casey, Paul 17.1 9200
Conners, Corey 16.3 9300
Morikawa, Collin 14.7 10500
Henley, Russell 14.7 7900
Na, Kevin 13.3 8100
Grillo, Emiliano 13.3 7300
Cantlay, Patrick 12.7 10900
English, Harris 12.5 8400
Kisner, Kevin 12.3 7700
Garcia, Sergio 11.2 8600
Streelman, Kevin 10.9 7300
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 10.7 7700
Poulter, Ian 10.7 7600
Johnson, Dustin 9.2 11600
Im, Sungjae 8.8 9000
Kucher, Matt 8.6 8000
Thompson, Michael 8.1 7200
Glover, Lucas 8.0 7100
Smith, Cameron 7.9 10200
Lowry, Shane 7.8 8500
Hadwin, Adam 6.9 7100
Horschel, Billy 6.7 8200
Wallace, Matt 6.7 7500
NeSmith, Matthew 6.7 6900
Grace, Branden 6.5 7600
Poston, JT 6.4 7100
Kizzire, Patton 6.4 6500
Fleetwood, Tommy 6.2 8800
Ghim, Doug 5.7 6900
Munoz, Sebastian 5.5 7500
Todd, Brendon 5.2 7300
Davis. Cameron 4.9 7400
Ortiz, Carlos 4.4 7400
Cink, Stewart 4.1 6700
MacIntyre, Robert 3.8 7800
Johnson, Zack 3.5 7200
Westwood, Lee 3.5 8300
Hoge, Tom 3.6 6400
Burns, Sam 3.5 7400
Frittelli, Dylan 3.4 7200
McCarthy, Denny 2.9 7000
Wise, Aaron 2.9 7300
Varner III, Harold 2.7 7000
Howell III, Charlie 2.5 7200
Furyk, Jim 2.5 6600
Sabbatini, Rory 2.5 6800
Garnett, Brice 2.4 6400
Hughes, Mackenzie 2.4 7000
Putnam, Andrew 2.2 6900
Snedeker, Brandt 2.2 6800
Pan, CT 2.1 7100
Martin, Ben 2.1 6400
Straka, Sepp 2.1 7000
Seiffert, Chase 2.1 6700
Noren, Alex 1.9 7100
Knox, Russell 1.9 6800
Long, Adam 1.6 6700
Hadley, Chesson 1.5 6300
List, Luke 1.3 6900
Moore, Ryan 1.3 6900
Hubbard, Mark 1.3 6300

Reavie, Chez 1.1 6600
Villegas, Camilo 1.1 6500
Perez, Pat 1.0 6400
Gordon, Will 1.0 6500
Higgs, Harry 0.9 7000
Lee, KH 0.9 6600
Hoag, Bo 0.8 6200
Taylor, Nick 0.8 6600
Stanley, Kyle 0.8 6600
Hagy, Brandon 0.8 6800
Nimmer, Bryson 0.8 6000
Piercy, Scott 0.8 6300
Stallings, Scott 0.7 6400
Lahiri, Anirban 0.6 6600
Willett, Danny 0.6 6700
Landry ,Andrew 0.6 6400
McNealy, Maverick 0.5 6700
Lee, Danny 0.5 6200
Norlander, Henrik 0.5 6700
An, B 0.5 6900
McDowell, Graeme 0.5 6600
Campos, Rafael 0.5 6400
Bryan, Wesley 0.5 6300
Lewis, Tom 0.5 6500
Stuard, Brian 0.4 6300
Dufner, Jason 0.4 6300
Merritt, Troy 0.4 6200
Gay, Brian 0.4 6200
Duncan, Tyler 0.3 6100
Malnati, Peter 0.3 6400
Armour, Ryan 0.3 6200
Schenk, Adam 0.3 6500
Taylor, Vaughn 0.3 6200
Rodgers, Patrick 0.3 6500
Donald, Luke 0.3 6000
Kodaira, Satoshi 0.3 6300
Gligic, Michael 0.3 6200
Cook, Austin 0.2 6100
Streb, Robert 0.2 6300
Haas, Bill 0.2 6000
Herman, Jim 0.2 6100
Choi, KJ 0.1 6000
Potter Jr., Ted 0.1 6100
Harrington, Scott 0.1 6100
Hossler, Beau 0.1 6200
Swafford, Hudson 0.1 6500
Augenstein, John 0.0 6200

All others 0%

These are my picks for the RBC Heritage

Top Tier: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Kirk

Mid Tier: Kevin Na, Matt Kucher

Low Tier: Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley

Out in Left Play: Matthew NeSmith

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: Sepp Straka *Risky

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

SicilyKid/ Steven

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

RBC Heritage DFS Breakdown

Jon Jansen 4 years ago

written by Jon Jansen

Just because The Masters has ended doesn’t mean the PGA Tour has stopped. Golf action continues this weekend and Sia Nejad, Joel and Nick go over it all with the RBC Heritage DFS Breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qquWX9CWWLI

Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

RBC Heritage: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

There’s no off-season in golf, which means there are tournaments to be played immediately after the Super Bowl of golf. This week we are at the RBC Heritage with a very talented field, especially when we consider that this is the week immediately after The Masters. This week I am looking for accurate ball strikers in every phase. Being long OTT isn’t a huge factor this week so I’ll weight APP over OTT and I’ll give a little bump upward to ARG as these greens are the 2^nd smallest on the PGA Tour. Tune into the PGA Livestream tonight for more on all the golfers in the field. And check out everything we have on the website as this week proceeds. Now, let’s get to the picks at the RBC Heritage.

Webb Simpson (10700) – Defending champ and RBC Heritage tournament sponsor has a great track record here and is a great course fit. Adding to that his recent form is picking up and he gains strokes in all SG metrics. Webb should feel at home here and a tournament takedown is in the cards.

Daniel Berger (10000) – Daniel Berger was a surprise miss cut along with DJ and Cantlay, but I think all three are playable this week. As for how each of them played last week, Berger offers the least to be concerned with as he lost a lot of strokes with the putter. Berger has been great on APP and is normally great with the putter so fire him up.

Paul Casey (9200) – Casey is a reasonable price this week and is in the Top 10 on Pete Dye courses dating back to January 2020 (19 measured rounds). Add to that his game has been in great form, mostly due to ball striking and I think he’s a solid play at this price.

Abraham Ancer (8900) – Has been great T2G on Pete Dye courses and off Pete Dye courses. Put simply, Ancer is a great ball striker and a good course fit which was evidenced by his 2^nd place finish last year. This is Ancer’s 4^th tournament in a row, which includes Match Play, so there is a small concern with fatigue, but I’ll worry more about that if he plays next week.

Brian Harman (8700) – Hard to argue against rostering Harman as he has great course history and is playing the best golf of his career as of late. He’s been gaining strokes OTT and APP at a great rate, particularly in the last 5 tournaments.

Chris Kirk (7500) – If you look at Kirk over the last 36 rounds, he has been great in all SG metrics, and more specifically, falls within the top 30 in this field OTT, APP and ARG. Not a big hitter and that shouldn’t hurt him this week.

Kevin Streelman (7300) – This is the type of guy you may not take at most courses, but should be a good fit here. He has been good on Pete Dye tracks and has very good course history here (outside of an MC in 2020). Streelman, a short hitter, should be able to find the right parts of the fairway to set up his APP on a consistent basis.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Has played very well at the RBC Heritage, as evidenced by two Top 10’s in his last two outings, he certainly has the game to succeed here. Further, a 34^th last week at The Masters is nothing to ignore.

Lucas Glover (7100) – A very sneaky golfer who has been good on Pete Dye courses and who has been making almost every cut dating back to late last year. Add to that he’s offered upside with a recent 4^th place finish at Valero and a 5^th place finish back in December at Mayakoba.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – A relatively short but accurate hitter with a fantastic APP game seems like a nice recipe for DFS and that’s what we have here with NeSmith. Add to that he proposed to his wife on the 18^th green and we have the metrics and the narrative to be high on NeSmith.

Doug Ghim (6900) – the average play as of late has mostly been a result of his terrible ARG and PUTT but the ball striking remains very good. Being bad ARG may really hurt with the super small greens (2^nd smallest on the PGA Tour) but I’m ok with having Ghim in a few lineups and hoping the short game bounces back. I should note that Ghim does not have any course experience, so tread carefully on this upside play. I wouldn’t play Ghim in cash.

Tom Hoge (6400) – Maybe not the guy to lean on in a cash game or single entry tournament, but has the APP game to make some noise at RBC and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish inside the Top 25. However, with Top 25 equity comes a similar amount of MC equity, but that’s what you pay for when you dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

Don’t forget to tune into the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST on Tuesday and don’t forget to subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store.

4 years ago 0 comments

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