PGA DFS

We have another major on our hands as this week the PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for The U.S. Open. This is a long 7600 yard Par 71 which will test all facets of a golfer’s game. On a track like this being long with the driver certainly helps, but APP, ARG and PUTT are also quite important. Greens will be hard to hit so do not underestimate the golfer who can keep it in the fairway or the golfer who can get up and down from a tough spot ARG. More on course dynamics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11200) – I don’t love anyone in this elite range, but Rahm feels like the most consistent option.  Even if you leave out Rahm’s incredible three round performance at the Memorial, the stats show he’s still been cruising on most SG metrics.  Add to that the putter seems to be working its magic. 

Collin Morikawa (9500) – Hasn’t done much in the two U.S. Open’s he’s been a part of, but I’m not too concerned with that.  He’s the best T2G player in this field and I think that makes up for his lack of length off the tee. Short game is always a risk with Collin so keep that in mind before going all-in.

Viktor Hovland (9200) – Been going back and forth on Hovland this week but the value at this price is undeniable.  Hovland doesn’t really have a weakness in any of the metrics I’m looking at other than not being particularly long.  I’m willing to take my chances from the fairway at the U.S. Open. 

Patrick Cantlay (9100) – I’m always looking for upward trajectory and Cantlay appears to have found his game after a pretty bad stretch.  Not many weaknesses in his game other than some recent difficulties at the 200+ proximity so I’m willing to take the value.  Before I leave the 9k range, I do want to point out that Rory McIlroy almost made my list.  His price and upside considerations warrant some shares in your lineups.

Scottie Scheffler (8500) – Comes with a bit of volatility, and therefore, prefer him in GPP over cash, but his upside is undeniable. He’s been excellent OTT and good on APP. The putter can be a problem at times, but he gains just as much as he tanks in that department.

Louis Oosthuizen (8100) – This guy dials in at majors and dials in at US Opens.  His track record in both is stellar and his recent form has also been excellent.  Add to that an excellent short game and great with his irons.  A great value in spite of being relatively short OTT.

Paul Casey (7900) – Always considered a value play and for good reason.  Casey grades out really well in the SG metrics and has great U.S. Open form and great recent form.  He will be popular, but I’m likely to play him in both Cash and GPP.

Abraham Ancer (7900) – Another great ball striker who has been contending over the last couple of months.  His ARG game and 200+ proximity game have been hurting him lately, but I’m willing to take my chances as everything else is elite.  If choosing between Ancer and Casey (a discussion had in Discord yesterday) my preference is Casey.

Jason Kokrak (7600) – One of my favorite values on the board.  He’s top 10 OTT and Top 20 on APP.  His short game can sometimes give him issues, but at this price I’m happy to take the upside.  I should note that Casey, Ancer and Kokrak will all be popular plays this week and if you’re looking for lower owned pivots, Sam Burns and Gary Woodland are volatile, but present the upside I’m looking for in a contrarian play.

Charley Hoffman (7200) – Due to this elite field, Hoffman has been moved to a price that creates a lot of value.  The last 24 rounds he’s been excellent OTT and APP and it’s the ARG game that has really hurt him.  That certainly may hurt him again this week, but I think he’s worth a few shares to round out your lineups.

Kevin Streelman (7100) – A short hitter who has been extremely consistent as of late.  I don’t love the U.S. Open course fit for Streelman and the 200+ proximities may present some issues, but I do think shorter hitters can succeed at Torrey Pines, particularly this time of year where there will be much more run out on the fairways compared to early in the year.

Cameron Young (6800) – A real leap of faith if you want to roster Young, but I’d say that about literally anyone in the 6k range this week.  Young was excellent on the Korn Ferry Tour last month with back to back 1^st place finishes.  He’s come back to reality so far in June but clearly the upside is there.

Richard Bland (6600) – You won’t find much on the PGA Tour but the recent results on the European Tour are impressive enough to take a shot.  He’s finished 3^rd, 1^st and 27^th over his last three.  You’re looking for cut makers at this price range and the recent form is showing he’s capable of just that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-10. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your U.S. Open lineups.

This week we have an awkwardly placed PGA Tour tournament on the opposite coast of next week’s U.S. Open major.  This leaves us with a Palmetto Championship that is not rich in talent, but make no mistake about it, the DFS payouts remain the same.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP with OTT coming in a little more important than normal (but not quite as important as APP).  I’ll also be keying in on second shot proximities of 175 and above among the rest of the APP proximities.  Finally, PUTT takes on a bit more importance as the greens will be fast and tricky.  Check us out tonight on the PGA Livestream for discussion of the picks below and much more.

Brooks Koepka (11100) – We will talk, at length, about “The Brooks narrative” on the Palmetto Championship PGA Livestream/Podcast.  I will be ignoring that narrative for the most part in the hopes of exploiting the huge talent gap.  Brooks is number 1 in my model.

Matt Fitzpatrick (10400) – I wouldn’t say Fitz is a “contrarian” play but he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the 10k and above range.  His APP numbers have been off, but it wouldn’t shock me if that starts to come around this week and he does check all of the other boxes for this course. 

Alex Noren (8900) – Last week’s Win Daily Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned and less than 7k) is all the way up to 8900 this week and is now a staggering 36-9 overall.  Last week we were ahead of the curve and this week the industry has caught up as indicated by the price.  He’s expensive but the all-around game is there and he’s Number 4 in my model.

Lucas Glover (8600) – He will be popular as his recent play is great and he’s one of the few that has actually played this Palmetto Championship course at Congaree.  With that said, his APP numbers have tailed off a bit as of the last 12 rounds so Glover is not a “go all-in” play, but he’s worth a look in some lineups.

Scott Stallings (8000) – Don’t look now but Stallings has made 5 cuts in a row.  Does that mean he definitely makes the cut this week at The Palmetto Championship?  Nope.  It does mean that he’s on a trajectory that is different from most of the 8k and below golfers in this field.  The upside may be limited, but the all-around consistency he’s shown over the last 20 rounds in field stronger than this one is intriguing. 

Vincent Whaley (7700) – Maintains one of the longest cut streaks on the PGA Tour and the SG metrics are starting to bear that out.  Put simply, this guy has been automatic and is consistently finishing among the Top 25.  In this field I expect nothing different.  Whaley will be a popular play this week so beware of ownership.  I should note that I also like Luke List in this range, but I think he is better as a Showdown play than a full tournament play this week.

Ben Martin (7600) – Martin is really making strides this year and is a guy that I expect to emerge in a field like this one.  His overall SG metrics are good other than some issues ARG, but he happens to be decent in the sand which is a point of emphasis this week.   He’s a suprising 12^th in my model.

Roger Sloan (7000) – There are a lot of places to pivot this week, especially in the low end range, and I think Sloan is a good example of that.  He will be low owned and I think he has the upside to make the cut and score some points.  The short game can get Sloan in trouble, but I’m more willing to take that type of short game risk on a low priced guy like Sloan.  A GPP play only.

Hank Lebioda (6900) – He is quickly becoming one of my sneaky guys as I’ve peppered him into plenty of lineups this year.  Hammerin’ Hank has been good OTT and great on APP over the last 24 rounds and he’s been even better over the last 12 rounds.  Short game may trip him up but I think he makes up for it with the ball striking.  Already clicked a 150 to 1 outright ticket on him because, why not, right?

Robby Shelton (6700) – The 6k range is tough sledding but I think Robby has enough hot streaks to make a difference in your GPP lineups.  It’s a risk for sure, but if you need to dip down this low I think it’s got some upside.  More on 6k players on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-9. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your lineups.

The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges.  This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT.  As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal.  More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.

Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value.  I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier.  He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes.  I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like.  He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity).  Overall he’s 6^th OTT and 12^th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.

Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12^th in my 24 Round model (9^th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been.  He finished 23^rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low.  I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.  

Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6^th in my model this week.  His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week.  I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.

Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament.  No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close.  He’s 2^nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG.  The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great. 

Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck.  He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20^th OTT and 15^th APP.  He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG.  Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.

Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit.  I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs.  An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot.  He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.

Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else.  He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway.  He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.

Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall.  However he’s 13^th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.

Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21^st).  He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG.  If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.

Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament.  Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.

Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice.  He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8^th place finish last week.  Also has a great track record here.  Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your Memorial Tournament lineups.