PGA DFS

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The Course and courses horses for The Dell Match Play Final Ownership Projections

This week we are in Austin, Texas, my hometown, I live about 2.4 miles from Austin Country Club, site of this weeks Dell Match Play. This report may be a bit late because I’ve been on the course since 650 am today scouting the competition, I’ll reveal more in Discord tonight.

Last night we had four tornadoes hit the Austin metro area from a bad storm system, luckily none of them got near the course, there was some property damage but no fatalities or serious injuries, winds got up to 75 mph and they pulled anyone on the course early. Today winds are still heavy, 30 to 40 gusts, stable at 25 mph. Tomorrow should be more calm as the remnants of the storm leave the area.

Tonight’s DRAFT CAST with Sia Joel and Spencer and the Model Maniac will help you traverse the match play format which is completely different from stroke play, you will hear the word dormy a lot. You don’t want to pile up golfers in the same bracket or the one they play against in the quarterfinals. Your goal is to get as many as you can in the semi finals. Its like waiting for prom until the last minute and you randomly pick a girl to ask even though she has braces, thick glasses, acne and a receding hairline at 15 years old. When you get to the prom, sit down, and she says…”I remember this one time at band camp”….you really want to be very careful with your last selection.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on which Cinderella golfer could give you the edge you need .

These projections are accurate as of 18:04 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

These projections are accurate as of 18:34 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Dell Match Play Championship

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Spieth

Low Tier: Watson

Out in Left Play: Harman

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: N/A

FR Leader: N/A

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning units week after week after week with plays featuring the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening to their podcast, don’t even bother listening to any others, their intel is so spot on.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

Want to take down a contest this week ? Come on in.

The Course and courses horses for The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections

Welcome everyone to The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections. This week we are STILL in Florida, where it’s illegal to be gay, happy or thrilled, the contest is at Palm Harbor, home of the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. This course normally ranks in the top 10 of most difficult, with the date being moved the last time out, it played easier and Sam Burns set the tourney record at 17 under. The last three holes, affectionately and accurately known as the snake pit are the toughest on the course.

Last week the weather was the headline at the Players Championship. I did well simply because most of my picks were in the early am draw on Thursday. Beau Hossler was a low salary high value play for me and he made it through that Saturday weather nightmare at 1 under going into 17, where he proceeded to put his first two in the water. Bye Bye Beau. My fade of the week worked, Cameron Young didn’t make it to the weekend. As my esteemed colleague Sia would say, “That’s Golf.”

One of the players I’m looking at this week is Abraham Ancer, he has placed 16th and 5th in his two appearances and he putts well on this surface. He was 11th in my model. I will have 25-30% of Ancer in my lineups.

Our fade this week is going to be Brooks Koepka, word is he is tuning up for the Masters and The Valspar isn’t high on his checklist. The Players was on his list and it just didn’t work out for BK. That should continue.

For this tourney coming on the heels of the Players Championship it has more top tier talent than it normally would. Pricing is tight and there are chalk plays in the 6 and 7K salary range which is consistent with a stars and scrub approach from most entries. It makes sense with Hovland and JT being at the top of ownership, if you play those two you have to go way down the board several times to stay under the salary cap. We have a rule 17 designed by Patrick that states you never take a golfer under 7K in salary that is over 10% owned. Rule 17 is right at 100 % in accuracy.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on whether Rule 17 applies this week…..

These projections are accurate as of 18:04 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Valspar Championship

Top Tier: Hovland

Mid Tier: Ancer

Low Tier: Schwab

Out in Left Play: Wise

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Ancer

FR Leader: Kokrak (Risky)

GAMBLERS: We have our own secret named Sia who puts out his Secret Weapon play every Wednesday night in Discord with a 49-19 record, get this-it has to be a 6K salary player, must be under 5% owned, and MUST make the cut, and he’s 49-19. If you like OUTRIGHTS and FIRST ROUND LEADERS his record is 5 wins in the last nine tourneys, an almost unheard of 60% win rate for picking one golfer out of 154, at odds of up to hundreds to thousands to 1. It’s just like having a gold mine, without the shovel, a claim or smelly miners hanging around.

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning units week after week after week with plays featuring the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening, you are losing money. Period.

Last nights DRAFTCAST featured a spirited draft where everyone was taking the others favorites and everyone scrambled to adjust their six golfer lineups, so far Spencer and the audience have won a few with some very close contests, and a lot of subscribers have won money just copying a lineup in the DRAFTCAST draft. Don’t miss Sia, Joel and Spencer and the new format on Tuesdays at 800 PM EST. How hard is it to copy a lineup and enter it and go green for the week ? Watch and WIN !

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

Want to win The Milly Maker this week ? Come on inside. You know you want to.

The Course and courses horses for The Players Championship Final Ownership projections

Welcome everyone to The Players Championship Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at TPC Sawgrass, the home of the Players and the infamous island green on 17, where even songs have been written about it, most likely the blues. This field is stacked, the deepest this year and the most top fifty players in quite some time. There are 17 holes with water in play, you could say it resembles the Honda with all the water, only the Honda greens averaged 7500 feet while Sawgrass greens come in at a miniscule 5500 feet. The rough is half as long as it was last week but it doesn’t need to be with water surrounding the course. Distance, accuracy, and especially approach along with a knack around the greens will help.

Speaking of last week, the top pick in my article, Mr. Scheffler, won the Arnold Palmer, All my picks made the cut and Danny Willett, the frisky biscuit, brought solid value at 6400 salary. He was listed in Discord where every Wednesday night you will find my risk play, along with Sia’s secret weapon play, which is 49-18 and has the harshest rules to succeed, yet he continues to amaze week after week. The course that Arnie built, with the wind built in as well, was nothing short of brutal, it was more of a survival mode than a test of golf skills, and the competition committee made no bones about why Arnie bought Bay Hill. Expect a major tourney to be announced there soon.

One of the players I’m looking at this week is Sergio Garcia, he has never missed a cut, he’s 18 for 18 at Sawgrass and depending on ownership, will be in 20-30% of my lineups. Si Woo Kim also has a solid record here. Conners, Poston and Ancer have each played here twice and all have made the cut both times as well as finishing 25th or better in each tourney. Of the three I favor Ancer, he plays well on Pete Dye courses.

Our fade this week is going to be Cameron Young, its risky because he is an elite ball striker, when they asked Sergio how he has made every cut, he said, “you will be forced into shots you may not want to make, you just have to make sure to hit it where it causes the least damage.” Cam Young doesn’t know where not to hit it at Sawgrass.

With so much talent on this course at the same time you will have to be different in your selections, picking the heavy chalk means you tie 80,000 other entries. The average ownership for winning the Milly used to be 55- 60 %. it is now 78 -80% due to the popularity and explosion of DFS golf. The last seven Milly Maker winners have come in at a 79% ownership average. If you have 110 % of ownership in your lineup you are pretty much dead in the water, that doesn’t mean taking six players in the 6K range, but having two or possibly three that aren’t pure chalk will diversify your lineups to give you a shot. You do not have to be extremely different, just a little bit will do.

Lets look at the numbers to give you a heads up, and see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

These projections are accurate as of 17:52 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Players Championship

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Lowry

Low Tier: Ancer

Out in Left Play: Wise

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Garcia

FR Leader: Munoz (risky)

GAMBLERS: You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been targeting golfers that are making the top 40 thru top 10 and includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening, you are losing. Period. C’mon, get on board that money train !

Last nights DRAFTCAST featured John aka The PGA Tout. It is well known that John’s first preview and Sia’s initial look on Mondays are the most comprehensive in the industry and a must for DFS and betting markets on players. Last week, for the second week in a row, the audience, under Sia’s guidance, won and will now go for the three peat. Trying to stop the crowd will be Spencer, who did win two in a row and then had a second place, which would be the “Tiger Slam”. Joel went with pure ball strikers and had a defensive mind set as well, check in Discord and Twitter to follow the progress of who will win. For the fastest draft with the most fun and definite audience participation, check out the DRAFTCAST show on Tuesdays at 8 EST. There was some light hearted banter that the winner would win a trip to Augusta. It did not specify Augusta National, just a trip to Augusta. You could probably have a Uber driver take you around the block a few times and then you could set yourself up as a tour guide for those that did have tickets, or you could rent yourself out as a security guard for all the impromptu parking lots that spring up. You could also be a sign spinner for anyone, you know, just like the sign says….

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

Who wants a takedown this week in Golf DFS ? Keep reading !

The Course and courses horses for The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership projections

Welcome everyone to The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at Bay Hill, another tough test that plays like a major and we just found out that the rough is now just over 4 inches in length so accuracy off the tee, approach, and around the green will weigh heavily on who makes it or who breaks it. Hole #6, a par 5 with water has the dubious distinction of being the worst hole for double digit scores, as in +10 or more, of any course anytime anywhere on the PGA tour. The four par fives account for more than 50 % of the scoring, so you’ll want to target those par five birdie makers.

The greens at The Arnold Palmer are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty close to what we saw last week. Speaking of last week I said that Ryan Palmer (who some industry pundits liked) would bomb. He finished two spots out of last place and provided no value for his backers. This week we feel Ricky Fowler is in the same mold, yes he made the cut, yes he’s back in Florida, he made the cut based on his putting, he lost strokes on approach and around the green which doesn’t work out to well for Bay Hill. He is a pass for us this week.

Last week we saw a lot of the Win Daily family hit some sweet money numbers as we continue to pound the weekly tourney, Showdown and the betting markets as well. On Friday night I was poised for four takedowns, gave some back on Saturday, and then on Sunday went up 8000 more and then….a couple of golfers named Kirk and Svensson doubled and triple bogeyed the bear trap and Berger bogeyed 18. I still managed four figures after costs but the sweats were incredible, it’s all you can ask for.

Many years ago when I was playing poker for a living, in a hotel suite rented for a week where players would play for two or three days straight, take a nap, eat and start over, I saw a one of a kind pot go down. There was 964,000 in the pot and it ended up where a straight flush beat four of a kind, the only time I ever saw that happen in over 20 years of playing cards. The man who lost close to half a million stood up, brushed his coat off and said, “I’m done. Thank you gentleman.” He pulled some cash out of his pocket and tipped the dealer and the hostess that cooked meals and changed linens, then he smiled and said, “that’s poker,” and then,…he left. Last week Sia started a catchphrase that describes what happened Sunday at the trap and is just like the poker game. The phrase is “that’s golf.” My wife told me that all I have to think about is when a golfer keeps me from a takedown is that it may have cost me 10, 20, or 50K and yet it may have cost that golfer 200, 300 K or one million or more. She was right, and….”that’s golf.” Stix, the co host of the best podcast on the planet, Bettor Golf, along with Spencer, who just won the writer of the year award, had at least 50K riding into Sundays DFS and it just wasn’t our week for a take down. Guess what ? “That’s golf.”

This week we have a stacked field with lots of heavyweights, with a course where they forgot to tell the groundskeepers to cut the grass on purpose, and more exciting opportunities for us all to sweat the big takedown, we have been pouring over models, stats and metrics since Sunday evening, we started as soon as Straka won the Honda in the rain. One of the stats to look at is ownership to determine how badly we want to roster a Keegan Bradley and is he worth it, does he bring any value. Let’s find out, shall we ?

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Arnold Palmer to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

These projections are accurate as of 17:24 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Kokrak, McNealy

Low Tier: Keegan Bradley (his numbers here are just too good)

Out in Left Play: Martin Laird

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Sergio Garcia

FR Leader: (Risky) Laird

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them mention that they liked Sepp Straka, yes, that Sepp Straka who won it all. Kudos to them. Don’t miss Stix Hammer Kid play, its hit three weeks in a row and Spencer’s breakdown of the tourney is the most comprehensive in the entire industry. Look for the Bettor Golf Podcast on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST was giving away gold memberships, tickets to the big Milly, and passing out choice intel to help you make a mint in your golf DFS contests, as well as FRLs and outrights, Sia, Joel and Spencer were battling the audience for the best draft picks for the Thursday tourney, and to honor Spencer winning writer of the year, we left him Jason Day but he was too short on salary to pick him up, a good thing since Day withdrew earlier today. Spencer wins on that point by NOT picking Day, the man has the golden touch.

Sia will be releasing his Secret Weapon (dun dun dun) tonight in Discord, his record for picking a 6K golfer that everyone hates who brings value and makes the cut is 49-17, its stunning. Think about it, Sia could lose 31 picks in a row…and still have a WINNING record, name one other handicapper who can say that, I’ll wait.

Still waiting…..

Smile.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

The Course and courses horses for The Honda Classic

Welcome everyone to The Honda Classic Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at PGA National, one of the toughest tests on the PGA circuit all year with the infamous bear trap, a stretch of holes, 15,16,17 that use water and sand like a butcher knife to carve up golfers left and right. What most people don’t know is that for the past fifteen years, holes 5,6,7 have produced the exact same dismal results for golfers, +.638 over par for both stretches of holes. Add the coastal breeze and you have major like scoring conditions, water is in play on 15 0f 18 holes in this diabolical course designed by none other than Jack Nicklaus, in the last 15 years over 6200 balls have splashed, this is with the best players in the world teeing it up. In 2018 there were 516 balls that got wet for one tourney, that number decreased over the last two years and last year, for the first time in course history, not one golfer made it through the bear trap without a bogey. The combined score on the beartrap for the last fifteen is +4136 over par, that doesn’t include 5, 6 or 7 which play the same in difficult scoring.

If you are considering Ryan Palmer know that he has played the trap at +40, seven strokes worse than any other golfer, he also holds the distinction of most balls in the water as well. he does have some decent history at PGA National so I would consider him a boom or bust play, I say bust this week. Jim Furyk has had the least amount of balls that become fish food in his career at PGA national.

The greens at The Honda Classic are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty fast. Its a huge change for golfers that have been playing on Poa for the last three out of four weeks. Positive putting splits over the last 50 rounds include “putts” McCarthy +43 strokes (+4 on other surfaces) Harry Higgs +24 strokes (+7 on other) Joaquin Niemann +23 (+4 on other). Negative splits over 50 include tommy Fleetwood -6 (+10 on others) Sungjae IM -4 (+10 on others) and Doug Ghim -23 (-2 on others)

If the winds present themselves all four days we could possibly be looking at plus numbers for the first time, keep an eye on Discord Wednesday evening for weather updates. Recent cut lines have ranged from +1 to plus 7, so the Friday cut sweat may need a calculator. All our models, projections and programs are numbers centric.

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Genesis Open to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

These projections are accurate as of 18:16 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Honda Classic

Top Tier: Berger

Mid Tier: Vegas

Low Tier: Kirk

Out in Left Play: Todd

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them sing the praises of Joaquin Neimann, the golfer who went wire to wire for a victory at The Genesis. These are the same guys that had a profit of plus 40 units the week before. Most professional touts will sing loudly at the top of their lungs if they score +3 units, Spence and Stix hit over 40 and keep doing their job of making money, real serious money week in and week out. You have to give the podcast a listen on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST had Jason Sobel, a pioneer in DFS golf, years ago he used to beat me in contests with 100 people, which was about the entire DK audience at the time, he and a guy named Jennings from Fantasy labs, now they are industry titans along with the shows host Joel, Sia and Spencer who have brought absolute dynamite picks to you at a level I’ve never seen in DFS golf. You have to catch the new format, its Tuesdays at 8:00 EST, it goes fast and its just plain fun. Catch it.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!