It’s the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs! The Northern Trust will feature the top 124 players in the standings, so plenty of great golfers for the tournament to choose from! Sia, Joel and Spencer give a full DFS breakdown and picks on the Northern Trust DFS Breakdown!
Sia Nejad – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
Welcome to the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust features the Top 124 in the standings (125 minus Louis) and it is therefore a field that is packed with talent. This course will require all features of the golf game to be firing which means to be successful you’ll need to be good with the short and long game. We will talk plenty about course dymanics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with Joel and Spencer and myself so tune in at 8:00 EST for that. And now let’s get to the picks for The Northern Trust.
Jon Rahm (11500) – Just like anyone else, Rahm can sometimes have a bad putting tournament but he is absolutely elite in every other department. Only thing that can stop this guy in 2021 is Covid. Tough to play him at this price, but if that keeps his ownership down, I’m all aboard.
Jordan Spieth (10800) – The only knock on Spieth is that his long iron game hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders, but outside off that he checks all the boxes. Last 36 rounds he’s Number 1 in this field in the following categories that I’ve put into my model: BOB Gained, SG Par 5 and Draftking points. He’s also inside the Top 15 in the following categories: APP, PUTT, ARG, T2G, P4 450-500 and Bogey Avoidance. He’s got the all around game you’re looking for.
Abraham Ancer (9400) – The only issue with Ancer in this tournament is that you’re obviously buying the stock at its height as he’s coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. With that said, he’s been in good form for a while and has all-around game that we are looking for with the Ball Striking and the short game.
Scottie Scheffler (9300) – This guy hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the Reagan Administration. He’s also 2nd in this field in BOB gained over the Last 36 rounds. Plenty of upside here at The Northern Trust.
Webb Simpson (8900) – Webb was a pick of ours last week because he had great course history and because it looked like he had finally turned a corner. He may not be the best course fit this week, but the corner appears to have been turned which makes this the right price.
Paul Casey (8700) – Seems like a very fair price for a golfer who is in great form and also has the all-around game to compete at this course. He’s great with the long irons and is actually a much better scorer than most people think as the last 36 rounds establish: 15th in BOB gained, 2nd in SG Par 5, 8th in DK Points and 2nd T2G. If he gets super popular then he may be relegated to cash only, but for now he can be used in both formats.
Jason Kokrak (7700) – Another golfer that has the upside to smash his soft price and who can pile up the DFS points in a hurry. His main issue is the SG ARG, but even with that he is still inside the Top 20 in my model (with the upside to finish much higher than that).
Shane Lowry (7500) – Lowry has some flaws OTT and with the PUTT but he really makes up for it on APP. If he can get things going OTT then I think he can be inside the Top 10 at the close of this tournament. A GPP play with some upside here.
Brendan Grace (7200) – Much like Lowry, he can be a little erratic OTT, but he makes up for it with great APP play and he can sometimes get red-hot with the putter. He has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments so the upside is there to finish high at The Northern Trust.
Charley Hoffman (7000) – He hasn’t played much golf at all lately and I think the time off will help him get back on track. Hoffman is a consummate ball striker, and quite frankly, does everything well. If he were coming in with some recent play and good form under his belt, he’d be priced 1000 dollars higher. I’m happy to take this leap.
Charl Schwartzl (6900) – The DFS community is sophisticated enough to not jump off of a guy due to an MC, but we’ll need to wait and see what happens with Charl after his very poor showing last week. He’s been in good form overall and I think he’s a value at this price in spite of burning plenty of lineups last week. A GPP consideration only.
Hank Lebioda (6300) – the metrics are starting to slip a bit for this DFS Darling, but he still rates out as 50th in my model. He’s pretty weak OTT but he rates out above average on everything else I looked at.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 42-12. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Northern Trust lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.
The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.
Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4th Top 5 in a row. Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP. The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever. If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).
Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course). His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.
Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course. Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open). Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting.
Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20? Perfect! He also happens to rank 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).
Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers. The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter. Streelman can do all those things. He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.
Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here. His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.
Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag. I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).
Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut. The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds. The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.
Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game. With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful. I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.
Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form. He is a great value play here and likely to be popular. If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.
Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year. Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row. Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander. I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.
The PGA Tour is back on American soil for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational! Sia Nejad, Joel and Nick give a full breakdown of the event including DFS plays and bets on the WGC-FedEX St. Jude Invitational DFS breakdown!
Sia Nejad – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
We are in the stretch run heading toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour is back on American soil for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. This Par 70 7200 yard TPC Southwind course will test the complete game as golfers will need to be good in all areas. My focus will be on keeping it in the fairway and being good with the longer proximities (150-200 will be an emphasis), but I’m also looking for golfers that have the short game (ARG/PUTT) on these small Bermuda greens. This is another no-cut event. More on course dynamics, favored builds and players on Tuesday’s WinDaily Sports PGA Livestream which you can watch here at 8:00 EST. Let’s get to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Initial Picks.
Collin Morikawa (11000) – Collin lost strokes on APP last week in a fairly significant way and still managed a 4th place finish. I don’t expect the APP to continue to fail him, which means this brilliant ball-striker will be contending again on Sunday afternoon.
Brooks Koepka (10600) – In three of his last four measured tournaments he’s gained over eight strokes ball striking (BS). That’s pretty incredible. His track record here is also incredible (2nd, 1st, 5th over his last three efforts).
Louis Oosthuizen (9600) – I’m looking for ball strikers at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude who are in good recent form and who have good course history. Check. Check. Check.
Scottie Scheffler (9100) – The 9k range is rich with talent and I have no issue with Hovland, Cantlay or Berger but I’m going to take a shot with Scottie. He shows up in a big way in talent-laden fields, ball striking has been excellent and the putter can get hot.
Webb Simpson (8500) – There’s no reason to trust Webb right now, but that’s why he may be a great pivot and play in a GPP. He’s coming off a Top 20 at The Open which is pretty great considering where his game was immediately prior to that. He also has some good history here with a 12th and 2nd over his last two efforts at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.
Abraham Ancer (8300) – Ancer grades out very well in my model and really does check all the boxes in terms of hitting fairways, being superb with his long irons, being good on Par 4’s between 450-500, bogey avoidance and GIR. His upside may be capped, but he’s likely paying off his price either way.
Corey Conners (8100) – Another elite ball striker who just needs to find short game, which is more likely here because of the Bermuda greens. Be careful as his ARG game could get him into trouble. As for cash game potential I like Ancer (above) and English (below) a bit better than Conners.
Harris English (7600) – Over his last five measured starts he’s gained in BS. Over his last six measured starts he’s gained ARG. Finally, he’s gained PUTT in 5 of the last 6 measured rounds. He is putting the entire game together and he’s tremendous value at this price.
Tyrrell Hatton (7400) – Two missed cuts in a row should keep ownership down but he has great upside, not just in theory, but also in practice. At the Palmetto in June he gained 11.75 strokes BS on his way to a 2nd place finish (thanks to losing 3 strokes with the putter). Bermuda is a preferred green for Hatton. Not a cash play but should be great savings and upside for GPPs.
Stewart Cink (6500) – He’s hit a rough patch with the putter which is part of the reason he’s missed two cuts in a row. But he’s only one month removed from gaining 9.42 strokes at The Travelers. You’re hoping he can turn the putter around and putt like he did earlier this year while also capturing some consistency with the ball striking.
Ryan Palmer (6500) – Palmer is the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event because the game has fallen off a cliff over the last few months. With that said, because the WGC-FedEx St. Jude has no cut, I’m more willing to push a few Palmer chips into the middle. He may not be good for 4 rounds, but he has the ability to pop for 2-3.
Jim Herman (6000) – He hits fairways and has a solid long iron game and that’s led to four Top 30’s in a row. He’s also gained in BS and in putting five tournaments in a row. Herman is an absolute no-name, but if you put these numbers next to a guy with a pedigree, he’d be priced a thousand dollars higher.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all WGC-FedEx St. Jude lineup changes and weather reports.
It’s time for golf at the Olympics! Sia Nejad, Joel and a few guests have a full breakdown of the Olympic event with DFS plays and betting picks as well on the Olympic Golf DFS Breakdown!
Sia Nejad – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
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