Ottawa Senators

Jacob’s Above Average Plays are back after a few days off with three winners. He’s got one NBA and two NHL plays that are under the radar and we’re getting great value because of it. Make sure you get in on these plays so you can cash too!

Take Detroit Pistons -1 1st Quarter versus Cleveland Cavaliers ( 7:00 pm EST, Tuesday 7 December 2020)

Here we have two teams that are struggling, to say the least. Both the Pistons and the Cavaliers have had to deal with multiple injury issues this year, and it has obviously caused issues for their teams. Both teams have experienced, above-average players – but they do not have a great supporting cast and it is causing problems.

Cavalier’s long-time starter, Kevin Love, is the most frustrated player on the Cavaliers. He had an epic meltdown on Saturday following their pregame shoot around directed at Cav’s General Manager, Koby Altman, and the rest of the front office staff with Love stating there was “no feel here”. If you don’t know what that means, as a former basketball player let me explain: When there is “no feel” on a basketball team, it’s like five individuals playing their own game when you should be playing as a team. As you might imagine, that can be incredibly frustrating. Love then had a terrible game that night, scoring just twelve points in a 121-106 loss to the Thunder. So far this year, Love had been second in scoring on the team, averaging about eighteen points per game. Last night, it was announced that the Cavaliers have asked Kevin Love to help them trade him, which makes an awkward situation for everyone. The rest of the Cavaliers have struggled this year as well. The team has won fourteen of the thirty-six games played, but the focus here is the first quarter – so let’s get into that. This year, the Cavs are ranked 28th in the NBA in first-quarter points scored, with just 25.6 points. They have covered the spread in the first quarter just thirteen times this year out of the thirty-six played. At home, it has been even worse. Out of the nineteen home games played at home, the Cavs have covered in just five of those games. I have tried to find something about the Cavaliers that is above-average, but I can’t. They rank in the bottom 20 in just about every offensive stat, including points per game, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, field goal percentage, three-point percentage/made, and more. The only thing I can find that is above-average about the Cav’s is how bad they are.

The Pistons have not exactly been a good team either. However, I believe (when healthy) that they can be. Detroit has been awful on the road, winning just six of the eighteen road games played – but at least I can find some above-average stats on them. As a team, they have a shooting percentage of 46%, which is good for 10th in the NBA. They are ranked third in three-pointers (37%), seventh in forced turnovers (14.1), and 5th in opponent rebounds (43.2). Detroit has been led by Andre Drummond, who is above-average in most of his stats this year. Scoring an average of seventeen ppg, grabbing an average of thirteen rebounds, a questionable Tristan Thompson, and Kevin Love appearing uninterested in playing for Cleveland  – he should have a phenomenal game. The team has also been starting off hot in games. Overall, the Pistons have covered in the first quarter in twenty-two of their thirty-seven games, but it’s an even better record on the road. Detroit has covered against the spread in twelve of the nineteen games played on the road, which lands them at a way above-average 63%.

With the announcement that the Cavs are pushing to have Kevin Love traded in addition to the consistent locker room drama – I see them struggling a lot in this game. The Pistons have covered the first quarter spread in seven of their last ten games, and I see them coming out hot and trying to put Cleveland away early.

Take Colorado Avalanche vs New York Rangers OVER 1.5 1st Period -150 (7:30 pm EST, Tuesday 7 December 2020)

Here we have two above-average offenses that love to score and score early. The Avalanche are ranked second (28-15) in the NHL going over the total in the first period, and the Rangers are ranked second (26-15). The Avalanche are also tallying an above-average amount of shots on goal per game, almost 33 (32.98), which ranks them first in the NHL in shots on goal per game. However, the Rangers are shooting a ton of shots on goal as well: With 29.83 shots on goal per game, they are ranked 11th in shots on goal per game. Both teams are scoring an above-average amount of goals per game (Col 3.63 gpg/NYR 3.24 gpg) and I see this being a back and forth, high scoring game. While both teams are hitting the over in the first period more than 60% of the time, the Avalanche is even better on the road. When on the road this year, Colorado has gone over the first period total in seventeen out of twenty-two games for an outrageous 77.3%.

This is going to be a fast-paced, high scoring game. The Avalanche played last night, so I see them having some tired legs on defense which bodes well for a Rangers team playing on two days rest. Take OVER 1.5 goals in the first period. 

(For this play to win, the score in the first period must go OVER 1.5 goals. Shop around as some places have gone to two goals.)

Take Washington Capitals -1.5 versus Ottawa Senators ( 7:00 pm EST, Tuesday 7 December 2020)

This game features two teams that could not be on more opposite ends of the spectrum. The Senators have been bottom feeders all this season, while the Capitals are the best team in the East. The Capitals are at home tonight and that spells trouble for the Senators.

This year, the Senators have been one of the worst defensive and offensive teams on the road. Ottawa has only been able to put together five road wins out of the twenty-two they have played. Scoring just 2.36 gpg and allowing 3.82 gpg, they are continuously beaten up on the road. Overall hasn’t been any better, either. They have won just sixteen of their forty-two games, and haven’t won in the last six. The fact that they have been playing so bad heading into this game is not good. The Capitals have dominated the Senators as of late, while the Senators have won just once in the last ten versus Washington, with an average score of 3.4 to 1.8.

The Capitals, on the other hand, are above-average in just about everything and it shows. Winning twenty-nine of the forty-three played, including 12-8 at home, they have been hard to beat. The Capitals are also averaging 3.6 goals per game, and that is well above average when compared to the rest of the league which averages 3.07 gpg. The Capitals are also owners of an above-average defense. They give up about three goals per game (2.95) to visiting teams when playing at home. They have dominated Ottawa and really do not like to let them score, which will continue tonight.

Washington is playing their perennial punching bag, the Ottawa Senators. There is nothing that has happened recently to change my mind on that, so I’m laying the goals with Washington. Take the Capitals -1.5 goals versus Ottawa.