Orlando Magic

Jacob’s Above Average Plays are back after sweeping last night. With three more above average plays we are sure to have another great night that you will not want to miss out on. Two NHL and one NBA play are going to make today a great day!

Take Carolina Hurricanes in regulation -107 versus Arizona Coyotes ( 7:30 pm EST, Friday 10 January 2020)

I’m going against Arizona tonight as I think they are in a really, really bad spot versus Carolina. These are two teams with different styles of play. Additionally, one of them is on a back to back while the other is at home on rest. That combination spells bad news for Arizona, who faces another tough test tonight.

Arizona got shut out by Tampa Bay last night, losing 4-0. This is their second game in as many days, and they do not play well in this situation. The eight-times Arizona has played back to back games, they have won on the second night only twice. The Coyotes were one of the league’s above-average teams, but in the last ten games – they have won just half. They have won only two of the five most recent road games, and they do not play well against Carolina. Carolina likes to play fast and score, and that’s just not Arizona’s game. They score less than three goals per game, ranking 19th in scoring offense when on the road. Arizona proved last night that what I said about them was true: they are paper tigers when playing above-average offenses.

Carolina, on the other hand, is playing great hockey. Winning twenty-five of their forty-three games, they are ranked fourth in the Metropolitan Division. That may not sound that great, but they are behind Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and Washington. They are ranked sixth in the NHL in scoring at home, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game. The Hurricanes do not just have an above-average offense, but an above-average defense too. Carolina is ranked number one in the NHL at home and overall in shots allowed on goal, allowing just 26.43 shots per game at home and 28.72 overall. To go along with all of that, they love to beat up on Arizona. Winners of seven out of the last ten games versus Arizona, and holding them to an average of two and a half goals per game – Carolina seems to have this team figured out.

This game feels like last night’s Arizona game, but there are more stats and trends in our favor.  Arizona is on no rest and taking on a Carolina team who is at home on three days rest. Carolina needs this win more as they try to climb the Metro Division, and I just do not see the Coyotes playing well with no rest. Carolina has only played six overtime games this year, and since I think they beat up on Arizona – I’m going to take them to win in regulation at -107, instead of with overtime included for -177. Take Carolina to win in regulation.

(For this play to win Carolina must win the first sixty minutes. If the game goes to overtime we have a loser.)

Take Orlando Magic +3 versus Phoenix Suns ( 9:10 pm EST, Friday, January 10, 2020)
This game features two very different teams. One team loves to play fast, score, and have a bad defense. The other team is slow, does not score a lot, and plays above-average defense. The difference-maker here is that one of these teams is one of the worst teams in the NBA recently, and I’ll be taking the other side because of it.

The Phoenix Suns love to score. Overall, they rank seventh in the NBA in scoring and fourth at home. When at home, the Suns score an above-average 116.1 points, and they are making 47.04% of their shots – but it is due to their defense that I am taking Orlando. The Suns allow 115.76 ppg at home, which ranks them 27th in the league. They also rank 30th in the NBA in field goal percentage, and allowing a lot of points to a great defensive team is not a good recipe for success. Plus, Phoenix is not playing well lately. Out of the last fourteen games, the Suns have won just three – including winning just one of their last eight home games. With the Suns covering none of the last five games at home versus Orlando, I really do not like them tonight.

Orlando isn’t just above-average on defense, they are the number one ranked team in points allowed. They allow an average of just 103.42 ppg, and that is what keeps them in this game. Orlando scores just an average of 104.88 ppg on the road (which is awful), but because of the Suns having such a poor defense – they will be able to stay in this game. I think Orlando’s defense will be able to shut down the Suns, but it also helps that the Magic have a great track record versus Phoenix. The Magic have won five of the last six games versus the Suns, including covering the spread in five out of the last five games when playing on the road against Phoenix. I see Orlando continuing this trend.

With such opposite teams here, it makes for a weird matchup. We have great defense versus bad offense and bad offense versus bad defense. With Phoenix’s recent track record of not playing well, I think the stellar Orlando defense can prevail with an outright win, but I’m taking the points just to be safe. Take Orlando +3.

Take Pittsburgh Penguins versus Colorado Avalanche OVER 1.5 Goals in the First Period -148

( 9:00 pm EST, Friday 10 January 2020)

I really like this game to be a high scoring game. These two teams are part of the NHL’s upper echelon. They play fast, hard, and score early. Colorado ranks second in the NHL for going over the total in the first period, and the Penguins have been scoring early a lot lately – so let’s get into it.

Colorado has gone over the total in twenty-nine out of the forty-four games they have played so far this year. They also love to score early, as they are ranked second in scoring a goal in the first ten minutes of a game. They average 3.9 goals per game when at home, and have gone over the game total in seven out of the last ten games they have played. Pittsburgh has also been scoring a lot of goals lately. In the last ten games played, they have gone over the total in the first period in nine of them. They score an above-average amount of goals on the road, scoring 3.47 gpg, which ranks them fourth in the NHL in team scoring when on the road. 

These two teams are two of the best in scoring goals in the first period. Colorado has been ranked at the top of the NHL all year for going over the total in the first period, and the Penguins have been hot lately. Take Over 1.5 goals in the First period -148.

(For this play to win more than 1.5 goals must be scored in the first period. If not we have a loser)