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NFL Props

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

****I was originally going heavy with the Denver/New Orleans game but when the QB news dropped MKF decided to just pull the game altogether. Can’t really say I blame them.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Fun with overs to start the day! Two of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL against two of the weakest secondary units in the league, and neither team seems to care all that much with running the ball, and you’re giving me 290 yards passing with both Justin Herbert and Josh Allen? Yes please. Since we are looking at only needing two of three for a 1.8x return I’m probably going to lay a little extra on this one. I know we’re looking at 15mph wind in Buffalo but that’s not really something that worries me with strong arm QB’s who regularly exceed 300 yards through the air any given week.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It’s time people started taking the Raiders seriously. I know it’s Falcons (injured at that) but people are missing the boat here and have been all season. Although I don’t think it would be a problem no matter the health of Atlanta but **Matt Ryan** has struggled offensively whenever he doesn’t have his entire set of playmakers on the field so I’m truthfully just expecting a flat out dud by Ryan. On the other side of things the Falcons have been surprisingly stout in run stopping so we can have ourselves a bit of fun attacking the pass funnel they have going on in ATL. Pretty easy for me personally to lean **Derek Carr** and **Darren Waller** today.

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Touched on both plays above, the early game selection just allows me to package both of them in on play. **Josh Allen** should exceed 300 yards passing today and I’m thinking we get a classic Matt Ryan letdown game.

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

I know they are fun but I am going to stay away from the huge 6 player prop plays this week and go for something a little more reasonable for our higher risk play and we get to go to everyone’s favorite game of the day. **Patrick Mahomes** and Travis Kelce have been lights out for weeks with Mahomes going for over 340 yards passing in three straight and Kelce has topped 100 yards in those same three whereas Brady has been…meh. The only lean away from Kansas City is my choice of **Antonio Brown** over Tyreek Hill with 16.5 bonus yards. AB clearly still has it and his target volume keeps going up and I think this week is the official welcome back celebration for Brown. I may have been so bold as to take him straight up this week but luckily I don’t have to make that choice.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Prop Bets Week 12

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 12
We have been cooking with fire in this article lately, going 4-0 again last week on the main bets. Thanksgiving was good to us as well, with a 3-0 main bets record and 1-1 on Pizza Money Bets! That brings to cumulative record to 28-19 which is not too shabby. We'll be looking t...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets

We’ve got all day football today and we’re coming off an excellent Week 11 of bets! Between the four bets on the main slate and the two prime time games, we went 7-3 on the 10 bets. That’s brought us to 25-19 on the season and that’s with some terrible luck this week. Yes, I’m looking DIRECTLY at you, Leonard Fournette. You probably won’t catch that I’m staring daggers at you since you can’t catch. Anyways, I digress. We have some bonus plays this week with a ~~three~~ two game slate ahead of us so let’s get right into the good stuff with NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets!

Appetizer

Houston -3

I’m not typically one to go after point spreads but this one feels like a good time to go after one. The Lions are banged up and will be without receiver Kenny Golladay once again. I’ll bet on Deshaun Watson in this spot almost every time now that he’s free of Bill O’Brien. Detroit has a better record but my belief is Houston is the better team right now, though both teams are bad. I’m not betting a large amount, but it’s a nice way to get the day rolling.

Main Course

These are the two bets that I’ll be using for my parlay as my normal prop plays. Since we’re shooting for the parlay, we’ll have one from each game.

Brandin Cooks O 68.5 Receiving Yards

Cooks has had six games without BOB and has exceeded this mark in three of those games. He’s been averaging 82.6 yards in those six games and Detroit ranks 23rd in DVOA against the run. The individual corners aren’t something that worries me and Cooks ran a faster 40-yard dash than any of the three main corners. Of course, speed isn’t everything but when you have a 25.4% target share in those six weeks, you should be in good shape.

Terry McLaurin O 73.5 Receiving Yards

I’m continuing to bet on the studs and McLaurin is in fact a stud. He’s 11th in receptions on the season and third in yards despite being on his third quarterback of the year. It’s one heck of a skill to basically be “quarterback-proof” and McLaurin has hit this mark in eight of 10 games. Only twice all year has he been under this prop and one of those games he faced Jalen Ramsey. Dallas has a very poor secondary and have allowed the ninth-most yards to receivers. McLaurin has 24 targets with Alex Smith as his quarterback and almost 100 yards per game. This number is too low. I’m not really concerned with the “questionable” tag as he was a full participant in practice Wednesday.

Dessert

Terry McLaurin To Score at +135

This is taking the place of my Pizza Money Bet of the Week. It would be great to see McLaurin score and the Cowboys have allowed the most touchdowns to receivers on the year at 19. McLaurin only has two red zone targets with Smith but that doesn’t mean he can’t take one in from deep. This is just a fun little side bet for the day.

Since we’re down to just two games, I’m going to bet a VERY SMALL amount on a fun little parlay with the McLaurin touchdown bet with Watson +2.5 touchdowns. He’s only done this twice under the new coach but this is also among the better matchups he’s had thus far.

Please do not get carried away with either touchdown bet, and certainly not with a parlay. These would be under the Pizza Money Category from the normal props article, so this is just a little something extra to root for.

Record – 25-19

Pizza Money Bets – 0-2

Let’s get after it this week my friends and thanks for reading NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

Gotta love bonus football. Can’t wait to stuff my face and pass out in front of the TV on Thursday but before we do that let’s take get some prop plays covered at Monkey Knife Fight so we can wake up from our food coma with some extra ducketts for Black Friday. Speaking of Black Friday, Win Daily Sports is running their biggest promotion ever. We’re offering 50% off everything site-wide! All you need to do is go to windailysports.com and take your pick. Click on the picture below for more info.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Either I’m completely off base with the Lions and Matthew Stafford or Vegas sees something that I am missing so if you want to play it safe you can take the over on Deshaun Watson then play Stafford both ways and hedge a little for a safer play. With no Kenny Golladay, an injured thumb, Matt Patricia’s bland offense, potentially no De’Andre Swift or TJ Hockenson and the fact that Stafford has only surpassed 277 yards three times I have a hard time thinking the Lions are only three point underdogs and I have a harder time thinking Matt will but up a big game with Marvin Hall, Marvin Jones, and Kerryon Johnson as his main three options. On the flip side since Bill O’Brien’s firing Deshaun Watson has thrown for over 300 yards in four of six games and one of those was in Cleveland in 50mph wind (made some money on the unders that week if you followed that article). They have no ability to run the ball either so it is all on Watsons shoulders and he is incredibly capable, a slight caveat there when it comes to Duke Johnson, I don’t think it changes a lot but I have a purely gut feeling that this game is going to get out of hand and Duke is going to have his best game all season. It’s a low bar but I’m taking a couple of flyers in DFS with him.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I explained Deshaun Watson’s deal over Stafford already. Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller the 38th are interesting though. My original lean was Cooks but are guy Stix hooked be up with some data and it’s showing a clear advantage to Will Fuller by almost 20 yards and I’m not going to go against those projections when they show that clear of a divide. In Stix I trust with this one, you would be crazy not to. It is the best model in the industry.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am attacking both overs in this Washington/Dallas prop. Dallas has had some struggles but as we talking about last week the O-line is getting healthy and while Dalton isn’t great if he is given time to survey the field he can find his receivers and the one thing Dallas has is talent on the outside. We already put a play out there on discord telling you to attack the over 4.5 receptions for Ceedee Lamb before it moves. If we are assuming at least five catches with an average of 13.1 yards per catch you can do the math and see why we want the over. **Antonio Gibson** is finally starting to get the work that we have been clamoring for. We ideally want 20 carries a game for this guy but he shredded the Dallas run Defense for 6.4 yards per carry having his best game all year with 128 yards on 20 carries last time out so even if he only gets 10 carries and we expect a similar baseline he is easily surpassing 58.5 yards rushing. I don’t think he gets less than 14 carries Thursday so this number is at least 20 yards low in my eyes. Don’t sweat the injury designation as we was a full participant in practice and will not have any limitations come game time.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I know Alex Smith is the king of dink and dunk but when you have the kind of talent that can take a 3 yard dump of 60 yards to the house the yards pile up. He’s gone over 320 yards passing in two of his three starts and who does Dallas have defensively that can keep him from doing that again? The touchdown variance has been really odd on both of those games and we all know in fantasy things tend to regress to the mean but that is a DFS conversation so I’ll leave it at that. MKF is under the assumption that Dalton is going to exceed Alex Smith in passing yards and I just do not see what they do. The only reason he didn’t do more last week is because it simply wasn’t needed. The dink and dunk is the very reason I see JD McKissic beating out Terry McLaurin in catch totals. To be honest even if the bonus went to Terry I still would have gone JD. Smith is targeting JD 15 times a game during a normal script and Ron Rivera is spliting usage 50/50 for him and Gibson right down the middle and recreating what he did with CMC in Carolina. It is crazy to see that if you add it all up it the production is the same as well so I’m completely comfortable going with over props for both Gibson and McKissic in their respective rolls.

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

Want to stuff for face throw 10 bucks on a high risk play and potentially wake up to a big bankroll boost? Well here you go. I make no promises here. Just something for a little fun. we’ve only hit 5 of 6 once just missing out on a 20x return (Thanks Cleveland) so the odds are stacked against you. The point may be completely moot with Detroit/Houston because of Swift’s status so I’ll put two here. Only play one please unless you are good with your bankroll. Remember what I always say. If you NEED the play to pay off, you really should not be playing it.

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

I’m not going to have a full allotment of plays tonight but I’d look to lean unders in the passing game if you see something I didn’t touch on. I’ve found that we have some inefficiencies when I try to fit too many plays on a single game slate so we’re staying simple. I want to build on our nice 3-1 day yesterday.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t like sitting here leading in with unders right off of the jump but both Tom Brady and **Jared Goff** have shown flaws when it comes to defenses that rush the quarterback effectively and not only to the Rams and Buccaneers do that extremely well being 3rd and 5th in sacks respectively they also have strong secondary units capable of staying with top tier receivers in one on one coverage. Rams have Jalen Ramsey, **Darious Williams**, and Troy Hill to match Tampa’s great WR group while Jamel Dean, **Carlton Davis**, and **Sean Murphy-Bunting** are going toe to toe with the Rams WR unit. Add that to pash rush from **Aaron Donald** for the Rams and an always interesting revenge narrative from one of the meanest guys in the leagues in **Ndamukong Suh** and the west coast team traveling east narrative this might not be the most fun game for fans of offensive production.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal with Goff, no need to explain twice. Ronald Jones is really the only offensive weapon I have any amount of confidence in. My DFS lineups are going to be ugly in that regard but the Rams do have one flaw defensively and that’s one the ground. They’ve given up over 100 yards in 6 of 9 games (nice) on the ground including 96 to Zeke Elliot, 95 to Miles Sanders, 71 to Devin Singletary, and a combined 90 yards between Daniel Jones and Wayne Gallman. We always need to worry about Bruce Arians randomly benching Jones because for whatever goofy reason he hold Rojo to a different standard than the rest of the team but if he gets 12-15 carries he should be able to reach the over 60.5.

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

**Tom Brady** and **Jared Goff** have been covered above. I don’t like and overs for yardage props for any receivers but if Goff gets rushed in the pocket enough and starts speeding up his internal clock Sean McVay is going to come out in the second half of the game and simplify all of the route concepts. Goff will be left with no more than two reads and a dump off option in passing situations. During those times Goff and McVay lean on **Cooper Kupp** as his quick passing option so I see plenty of catches but I think the yards will be minimal.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With Andy Dalton back at QB Dallas should be more competitive which bodes well for **Ezekiel Elliott’s** rushing prop of 60.5 and the offensive line “should” be able to hold up against the Vikings who aren’t particularly well in any phase of the game on the defensive side this season. I think we get Zeke’s first 100 yard rushing game of the 2020 season. If the Vikins are bad at defense what do we call the Cowboys? The have the worst passing defense in the NFL and the only reason they don’t statistically surpass the Seahawks is because they aren’t in games long enough for teams to throw for 4 quarters and even though we all like to bag on **Kirk Cousins** but do we really think he won’t hit 240 yards passing against this defense with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to throw to? No way. Gimmie the overs.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t know if you all remember but the last time these two teams met the Raiders showed everyone that they have the ability to play up tempo and hang with anyone in the NFL and **Derek Carr** ended his day with an impressive 347 yard and 3 TD effort while **Patrick Mahomes** had 340 yards passing an two td’s. I was quietly optimistic in what the Raiders were going to be this season and they have blown away my expectations. Look to attack the Raiders overs if they are going to disrespect them like this yet again.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I already discussed my feeling on **Derek Carr** so no need to repeat. **Travis Kelce’s** 79.5 prop is high, but for someone of his caliber that’s a reasonable number. He’s exceeded 80 yards in five of nine games this season including an 8 catch 108 day against these same Raiders several weeks ago. Nothing has changed between then and now that would lead me to think he won’t do it again.

I don’t usually go after the fantasy point props but I really, really like this one. With no CMC **Mike Davis** should absolutely feast and we get the added benefit of PPR scoring so 17.5 should be easily attainable against the weak Lions defense. **Matthew Stafford** is a tough dude and should have no limitations when playing tomorrow and he has exceeded 21 fantasy points in three of his last four outings with the fourth being against the Vikings when he was put in concussion protocol.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets Week 11

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 11
This article last week was perfect at 4-0 and we know sit at 18-16 on the year. Thursday Night Football was heartbreaking, as we had D.K. Metcalf yards and Kyler Murray passing yards. I'll save the play by play, but both should have really hit with ease. The good news is it rea...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Let’s have some fun tonight everyone! These are the days we love put money on. The games where there isn’t a number high enough to scare you away from the overs. With a 57 point total and both QB’s going for a combined 748 yards passing, 1551 yards rushing, and accounting for 7 total touchdowns in their last matchup this should be the best Thursday Night Football game we get all season. Let’s get into our Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19!

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nice path for a 3.5x payout tonight by taking **Russell Wilson** and his week in and week out 300+ yard production against a QB in **Kyler Murray** who is spectacular without a doubt, but while Wilsons value is largely through the air with gaudy passing numbers Murray’s production is in large part due to his ability to run the ball so a 26.5 yard bonus doesn’t scare me all that much. In their week 7 meeting Russ threw for 388 yards and has exceeded 300 in 5 of 9 games to date. Murray still put up a massive 360 yard performance himself in that game but that is not the norm with only 2 of 9 contests this years exceeding the 300 passing yard mark. I’m leaning Deandre Hopkins over Tyler Lockett in part because of Lockett’s lingering knee issue, also his streaky nature this season where he is boom or bust every week, and finally I expect Arizona to do everything in their power to stop him after he embarrassed them a few weeks ago to the tune of 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he does, Kingsbury needs to get on the podium and apologize to the Cardinals fans and his team for putting them in such a bad situation.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

82.5 yards is a high number but if they do what I think they are going to do and try to slow down Lockett that should be a more that reasonable number to hit in a game with a 57 point total. Same deal with Christian Kirk and his 55.5 yard prop. The offense is Murray run, Murray throw, Hopkins and Kirk catch, rinse and repeat. Run game is a mess on both sides so air yards will be the name of the game tonight.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Welp, This was going to be a play but no sooner did Alex Collins get announced inactive they pulled the Carlos Hyde 54.5 prop. Never even had a chance to put it in discord.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll be quick, yes 310.5 is high for Russell Wilson and Yes 92.5 yards is high for Deandre Hopkins. I don’t care, Russ threw for 380 last time out against these guys and Hopkins is nearly a lock button for double digit targets and around 100 yards every week. All of these overs will probably burn me but I’m going to have fun with them at least.

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will however give you a completely optional play that you can attack every week. We were 20 yards by Kareem Hunt away from hitting a 6 man prop play for 20x return against Vegas but it just didn’t come to pass. You would think they Clevand would attempt more than 14 rushs with Hunt in heavy wind and a Baker Mayfield with bruised ribs. Oh, and speaking of that this week.

We had a measure of success attacking the heavy wind games on MKF two weeks ago and with the forecast in a couple of these games forecasting 25+ MPH sustained with gusts in excess of 50 MPH we are going right back to the well.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My take on this one is pretty straight forward. I don’t expect the Browns to make the same mistake they did with Vegas and the wind conditions are going to be nearly identical with sustained winds well over 25MPH. I’m not really worried about **Baker Mayfield** getting 40 bonus yards on **Deshaun Watson** for one reason. The Browns have the ability to run when they need to and the Texans can’t stop it. So give me Watson for all the monies. I am taking **Brandon Cooks** over **Will Fuller** because Cooks is seeing no less than nine targets a game in the last four weeks at an average depth of target nearly three yards closer (I take zero stock in any numbers accrued during the B.O.B. era) and we heard the rumblings of a deal at the trade deadline for Fuller and I seen one thing with Houston, where you see smoke there is almost certainly fire. There is a strain in that relationship that we do not see as spectators and the Texan appear ready to deal him this offseason to recover picks that they need to be competitive. I don’t know how folks will profile this game from a prop perspective but I’d take the Browns to win pretty handily due to the rushing struggles of Houston. Are the Browns smart enough to take advantage is the question.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I love attacking weather. **Baker Mayfield** threw for a whopping 122 yards against Vegas in week 8 in similar conditions. The **Deshaun Watson** under will be tight simply because I think they will utilize the short passing game to compensate for the lack of a run game but I still think under is relatively safe. If you want to play it smart you can take both sides of Watson and take the money to the bank.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x

You mean to tell me we are getting two of worst run defenses in the NFL in a game with the same garbage weather that they are projecting in Cleveland, a healthy Green Bay running attack, and a rookie going into just his second start against one of the heaviest blitzing defenses in the league and you are giving me 245.5 (remember Watson is 255.5) for Jake Luton and and **Aaron Rodgers** has only cleared this number in half of his starts and I expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams Sunday. He may throw 4 td’s because that’s just his style but they will be of the red zone variety. Possibly one of those 20-24 240 yards and 4 td’s high efficiency games that were his trademark in his prime Rodgers days.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal, 245.5 on Jake Luton with high wind in only his second start and he’s only getting 10 yards less than Deshaun Watson????? UNDER. **Aaron Jones** is healthy and while his volume will have you pulling your hair out he does a lot with his 15 carries a game. This number would scare me a little more if it was a typical game but Lafluer has to get him more work in a game where it should stay on the ground, shouldn’t he? if he gets 18 carries as apposed to his 14-15 carry volume against this run defense I think he breaks 100 on the ground

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

**Tom Brady is petty**, Antonio Brown should see a full allotment of snaps and we know he loves him some him, Godwin’s finger is a week better and Brady usually comes out to prove a point when he gets smacked around. Perfect storm of petty is ready to unload in Charlotte. We already discussed the Packers, and **Terry McLaurin** is possibly the most underrated receiver in the NFL against a horrible Lions secondary in what I think will be the official welcome back game for Alex Smith (love to see it). Terry is getting peppered with targets.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We actually get to have a little bit of fun this week attacking overs. Going after the unders last week ended up being a pretty decent strategy and our ROI ended up being 50% if you played1 unit across the board. For whatever reason the Browns decided that they didn’t want to run the ball against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a snowstorm with wind in excess of 35 MPH or else we would have hit our 5 player prop with a 20x payout. But such is life.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

I’m not one to take overs when it comes to Nick Foles but there are a couple of things that lead me to go that way today. First, all of the various sportsbook pages have his line set around 270 which tells me this is an error at 255.5. Next, the Titans are 6.5 point favorites so I expect the Bears to be throwing a lot in the second half. Finally, and it’s more of a psychological thing for me, Mitch Trubisky isn’t sitting on the bench with Nagy coaching waiting on to put him in if Foles throws a couple of early picks. A.J. Brown is pretty simple. The Bears play sides so I’m not worried about Fuller being matched up on him. He’ll be matched up against Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine which means wheel up on 64.5 receiving yards.

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

This seems like a mismatch both ways. With no Mark Ingram, a pass funnel defense, and the second highest expected total on the day 215.5 seems way too low. **Lamar Jackson** hasn’t been the best in terms of airing it out this season but John Harbaugh challenged Jackson in the media this week to tighten his game up and a expect him to respond. Phillip Rivers on the other hand has a noodle arm, against one of the best secondary’s in the league, with no T.Y. Hilton. 258.5 seems like a number he’s going to have a hard time reaching.

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

For some reason MKF doesn’t have a ton of pick 3 of 4 options and I wanted to give us something a little easier to go at Sunday so this rapidfire for 1.5x return is where we will target. I was interested to see two things when it comes to **Chase Daniels**. First, he has a career 68.3% completions percentage and second, his average pass depth is 6.9 yards per attempt. I’ll give you one guess as to what **T.J. Hockenson’s** average depth of target is? It’s 6.8 yards compared to Danny Amendola’s 10.6. So it looks like he slides right into Chase’s comfort zone and 68.5 bonus yards is too much against a Vikings team who will look to run the Lions into the ground tomorrow. **Justin Jefferson’s** explosive ability will likely be used during play action passing when the Vikings choose to air it on the rare occasion and when lined up against Jeff Okudah there will be a clear and obvious mismatch to exploit.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

**Tom Brady** with a full allotment of weapons to include a motivated Antonio Brown is an incredibly dangerous thing, add the fact that they looked like crap against the Giants and I have an expectation that they are going to try and run the score up to prove a point so I’m expecting Touchdown Tommy to put up a massive number tomorrow. **Drew Brees** I have a legitimate concern over. Reports came out this week that he has a problem in his throwing shoulder. Combine that with his struggles pushing the ball down field when he is healthy and I see one of two scenarios tommorrow. The Saints lean hard on Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara or, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, they use Bree’s ailing shoulder as a reason to roll out Jameis Winston to see if they can get some kind of vertical threat in their passing game. I love everything that Drew Brees has done for the NFL but father time is catching up to him in a hurry and we may be reaching a point where the catastrophic shoulder injury that ended up bringing Brees to New Orleans in the first place starts to cause lingering issues towards the tail end of his career.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL Props

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets

Appetizer

Main Course

Dessert

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

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