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NFL DFS

2024 NFL Season Team Futures – Win Totals & More

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

by Dave Gloeckner

The new NFL Season starts today. There is a beacon of light shining down on each fan as their team starts a season fresh, with no wins and no losses. Well, maybe the beacon misses Foxborough, MA but they’ve enjoyed enough success that this downturn was inevitable. With hope and optimism budding, even in the small corners of the country such as Green Bay, we open the fall with our favorite sport in America, the National Football League.

In 2022 we hit big, posting a 9-1 record in futures (click the link here). Last year was a mixed bag as we posted a 3-4 record in the futures market. But overall, the process was sound (Green Bay over wins, Indianapolis over wins, Minnesota under wins) as we just missed out on a huge payday with several teams missing their mark by 0.5 games (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Seattle) and just bad luck (Aaron Rodgers injury).

If you’re new to the Futures market, specifically team win totals, then let me refresh my strategy here. Futures are a poor investment but can be wildly entertaining. That’s because you must invest money upfront (now) and allow it to sit for 4+ months before seeing a return (January). So don’t overcommit your bankroll here. I recommend playing a low percentage of your bankroll, approximately 10-20%, and diversify your picks. Look at win totals and normal juiced options but also play some longer shots like Division titles, Conference Champions and Super Bowl winners.

As with years past, I look at some major principals, outside of Head Coach changes and major personnel developments. These include, but aren’t limited to:

PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (OVERPERFORMED)
PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (UNDERPERFORMED)
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL / FUMBLE RECOVERIES
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
PLAYOFF TEAM TURNOVER
CLOSE GAME RESULTS
QB PLAY / HEAD COACHING

Some numbers don’t always tell the truth but point differential compared to overall wins is a great indicator of team luck. That’s where Pythagorean Win Percentage comes into play. The top teams that were on the luck side, i.e. OVERPERFORMED, were from the same state:

Pittsburgh Steelers won 10 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 7.8 wins
Philadelphia Eagles won 11 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 8.6 wins

The top teams that were unlucky, i.e. UNDERPERFORMED, had playoff expectations but failed to meet them:

Los Angeles Chargers won 5 games but Pyth Theorem had them 7.1 wins
New Orleans Saints won 9 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 10.5 wins

So obviously those teams will be looked at for what we call regression. They stood at the farthest side of a normally distributed curve and will likely swing back to the middle unless they met some other criteria we factor.

I won’t bore you with all the metrics and data that was reviewed. But instead, I’ll send you off to the meat and potatoes of this article and explain my rationale there. Hopefully your team is on the plus side of my bets. But if not, the beacon is still shining and keep your optimism high. Because it’s NFL kickoff weekend and nothing beats that in all of professional sports.

#1 ATLANTA FALCONS over 9.5 wins (-140 DK) and win NFC South (-130 DK)

Guess who the betting favorite is to win the NFC South? Not the three-time defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs. Not the New Orleans Saints who have the most wins in the past 7 years and won the division four times in a row prior to the Bucs run. Nope, it’s the Dirty Birds from Atlanta as they made a huge offseason splash in several areas to help bridge the gap between a team ready to win and one that found ways to lose.

First, the Falcons made significant changes to the two most important positions in football, the head coach and quarterback. In comes Raheem Morris who replaces Arthur Smith as head coach. Morris is a familiar face in Atlanta as he spent six seasons with the Falcons from 2015-2020. He finished 2020 as the interim head coach and helped the Falcons play competitively and finish at 4-8 (5 losses were by one score).

Next, the QB position was addressed as the Falcons moved on from a massive error in talent judgement and sent Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke packing. This was off the heels of a year with Marcus Mariota, one in which he ended up quitting after being benched. So they brought in a steady arm, one comparable to Matt Ryan who played that position in ATL for 14 years, in Kirk Cousins. They then drafted his replacement in Michael Penix, but that’s for another conversation. The good news is, they have two QB’s that can play and a coach that will hold them accountable.

Kirk Cousins brings his fun loving personality to a team that desperately needs it. Photo courtesy of www.inkl.com

Then, let’s look at some of issues the other issues Atlanta had. They were 31st in turnover differential at -12. The Falcons threw the 5^th most interceptions with 18 and most came at critical points in the game. And their luck wasn’t very good either as they recovered just 42.1% of fumbles they created, last in the league.

Lastly, the Falcons have what is ranked as the easiest schedule in the league. That’s because of the weakness of the NFC South but it does help they got paired with the AFC West and NFC East.

The Falcons fit the profile of a team that is ready to jump on the scene. From a revamped defense to major additions on offense as well as now letting loose an underused beat in Bijan Robinson. They fit most of my principles and believe they will rise to the top of what is an open division.

#2 CINCINNATI BENGALS over 10.5 wins (-120 DK) and win AFC SOUTH (+145)

The Bengals, in a way, remind me of why I was high on the Green Bay Packers last season. A lot of that was based on HC Matt LaFleur who didn’t forget how to coach in one season. Coming off three-straight 13 win seasons, the Packers faltered in 2022 behind a lot of drama with their QB. And they fell off bettors’ radars as a win total of just 7.5 was set for the team from upper Wisconsin. By now, you know how the Packers fared as they are now a trendy pick as a Super Bowl contender.

Cincinnati won 22 games over the span of 2021 to 2022 and reached the Super Bowl and AFC Championship in those years. One could argue that they were a controversial call away from another Super Bowl appearance. And then, the wheels fell off in 2023 as they faced a myriad of injuries including one to their most prominent player, Joe Burrow.

But like LaFleur, Bengals HC Zac Taylor didn’t forget how to coach football. Instead, he navigated with what he had, which wasn’t much. Now his prized QB had a full offseason to heal, and they hit a home run in free agency by getting a “A” grade by PFF (Adding T Trent Brown was their best move).

Guess who’s back? Back again? Joe Burrow pulls off his new look for what is meant to be a comeback season in Cincy

Additionally, the Bengals are in a division that had two of the four highest overperforming teams according to Pythagorean win percentage; the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Those two teams are still mired in quarterback purgatory and could have major regression because of it.

Lastly, we look at the schedule which is favorable according to most sites. One prominent one, Sharp Football Analysis, has the Bengals with the 3^rd easiest schedule. By finishing in last place in the AFC South in 2023 the Bengals picked up games against other last place teams in the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers. Compare that to Cleveland, whose extra games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. That could be a two game swing in an already competitive division.

It’s a combination of coach, QB, and schedule that gives me high hopes for the Bengals. And while the number is high, the winner of the AFC North has won double digit games every year since 1990.

#3 TAMPA BAY BUCS under 7.5 wins (+120 DK)

The Bucs were supposed to be in transition following the retirement of the GOAT QB in Tom Brady. But they ended up overachieving and winning a playoff game and then pushing Detroit for three quarters in the Divisional Round. And most of that was due to the return of the chef, as QB Baker Mayfield had a career year for Tampa. But there were also some things that stand out and aren’t repeatable.

First, the Bucs forced the most fumbles in the league last season and had the 7^th best turnover differential. This came from a defense that allowed the 10^th most yards in the league which was the most for any playoff team outside of the Philadelphia Eagles. Next, they had the 3^rd best redzone defense in the league which came with some level of surprise. Tampa was the 30^th best redzone defense in the league in 2022 and reduced the TD percentage allowed from 65.4% to 45%. That jump doesn’t align with the overall play by their defense (4^th most pass yards allowed in the league).

And frankly, I see the Division as much better in 2024. Tampa has a good roster but it is getting older in key areas and they still have a weak offensive line and inability to run the ball. The Saints still have a good defense and underperformed in 2023. The Panthers finally have some stable pieces and look to have improved offensively. Finally, as discussed earlier, the Falcons look to have pieces in place on both sides of the ball to be a formidable opponent.

The last piece is this, we see playoff turnover from year to year at ~50%. I’ve already highlighted two teams that I expect to make the playoffs who didn’t in 2023 (Atlanta and Cincy). So there has to be some teams that take a step back. And for me, Tampa is at the top of that list. It’s been a good run down on the West Coast of Florida but we will finally see the negative regression that was expected a year ago.

#4 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over 7.5 wins (-140 DK)

If at first you don’t succeed, we try again. And that’s where I’m at with the Seahawks. While they let me down last year, the Seahawks have the ingredients to be a factor in the NFC West again. First off, it’s not like Seattle was awful last year as they won 9 games. Which by the way is the same number they won in 2022. Two straight winning seasons but yet their win total is set at just 7.5? And that’s with a 3^rd place schedule? Call me bullish, but I like those odds.

The biggest factor in the down year for Seattle was the defense, as they fell to 28^th in DVOA. So, the Seahawks swiftly went after a defensive guru. But surprisingly it wasn’t one of their former own in Dan Quinn. Instead, they baited and hooked Baltimore DC Mike MacDonald to take over the head coaching duties from Pete Carroll. Prior to helping Baltimore to the #1 overall defense, MacDonald helped Michigan rise to a top ten defense under Jim Harbaugh. And as you know, Jim’s brother John is the HC in Baltimore, so he comes from a good coaching tree.

We also have a new OC in Ryan Grubb. If you heard me on the Win Daily Sirius show this summer, I love the addition of Grubb. The new OC is an intriguing play caller who has a history in the Pacific Northwest coming from the Washington Huskies. While it’s his first stint in the NFL, he will bring some creativity and intuition to an offense that has playmakers in DK Metcalf, JSN, Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Lockett.

Blitz and the Seahawks look to be a factor in the NFC West under new HC Mike MacDonald.

The key here is the progression of the defense. They allowed the second most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns. And the Hawks have the right person in place to turn that around quickly. Adding Byron Murphy III and Christian Haynes in the draft is a good start. And re-signing DT Leonard Williams helps. Then there’s the schedule which ranks 16^th hardest, but the easiest in the division. Call me the 14^th man this year as I root on Seattle to pay me back for last year’s near miss.

#5 PITTSBURGH STEELERS under 8.5 wins (-145 DK)

The Steelers pulled off a miracle last season by making the playoffs. It was probably HC Mike Tomlin’s best coaching job outside his Super Bowl victory. The Steelers had a -20 point differential yet won 10 games. The offense was an issue as they scored just 17.9 points/game which was 5^th least in the league.

What stood out the most, and this was like two teams I hit on in recent years, was Pittsburgh’s record in one-score games. Which was a 9-2 mark. The Vikings in 2022 won 11 games by one score and we jumped on the under last year and won. Same situation with the Raiders in 2021.

Another thing to realize is the Steelers, even with a terrible offense, turned the ball over just 16 times which was the 2^nd least in the NFL. They are now handing the keys over to Russell Wilson, who threw 19 INT’s in his last two seasons in Denver. If the offense is to improve under new OC Arthur Smith, it may also come with more turnovers.

Finally, the Steelers have the 2^nd hardest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis. Their fortunes of making the playoffs turned their 2024 schedule into a tough undertaking. If there is any coach that can pull out another miracle again, it’s Mike Tomlin. But in reality, this looks like a team headed to his first under 0.500 season of Tomlin’s career.

#6 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over 8.5 wins (-110 DK)

Duval looks to be in the shadows once again. And just like a Jaguar in the wild, that’s where they like to be. Jacksonville came out of nowhere in 2022 and won the AFC South after finishing in last place the season before. They were then given the pole position heading into the 2023 season and didn’t handle it well. The schedule, along with injuries and struggles on offense, factored into a disappointing season.

Although we classify last season as a down year, the Jags did win 9 games and ended the season in 2^nd place in the AFC South. That included a 3-1 record against the Texans and Colts. But it was the season ending loss to Tennessee that stung and will be motivation heading into 2024.

The offseason was solid as the Jags let go of WR Calvin Ridley who didn’t mesh well with QB Trevor Lawrence or WR Christian Kirk. And they replaced him with Gabe Davis from Buffalo and early draft pick Brian Thomas Jr of LSU.

The Jags were also bitten by the turnover bug as they were overall -3. But the issue was on offense as they were 2^nd in the league in fumbles (16) and had the 4^th most turnovers (30). Minimizing turnovers will be paramount for the Jags and it’s something they can rectify as Jacksonville was a +5 in 2022 ranking 7^th best in the NFL.

The schedule also looks to be fair as the Jags rank 15^th in the league. But more importantly, it’s one of the easiest schedules down the home stretch as they have three games in their last five against projected last place teams in Tennessee and Las Vegas.

Head Coach Doug Pederson has proven himself to be an underdog his whole career. He thrives in that role. And with all eyes on Houston, I like Doug to rally his team and make a push for the AFC South once again.

#7: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TO WIN THE NFC EAST (-125 DK)

No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons in 20 years. And with all the turmoil going on in Dallas, they look primed to take a step backwards. The Cowboys O-Line is weakened, and the defense played over their head. Then there is doubt at RB as well as QB since Jerry didn’t sign his boy Dak to an extension. I do think Washington will be better this year. The Commanders have a potential franchise QB in place, but they are a year or two away from competing with the big boys. I’m off the Giants, as they let their franchise RB leave for nothing and have no confidence in QB Daniel Jones.

Saquon Barkley brings his talents to Philly. Will he be able to help the Eagles rebound from a disappointing 2023 season? Image courtesy of Bleeding Green Nation

By that math, we’re left with the Philadelphia Eagles. And that might scare some, as the lasting images of the 2023 Eagles was a team that gave up. How does HC Nick Sirianni build back the confidence and trust in his team? That will be the biggest issue to overcome in the 2024 season.

The addition of OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio is a great start for accountability. Both have coached top units in this league and are immediate upgrades to their incumbents. We also have to factor in the Eagles offseason, which was a smashing success. They swung in FA and landed RB Saquon Barkley to help in the run game. The Birds also added key defensive players like LB Devin White and DE Bryce Huff to fill holes in the front seven. And then Howie Roseman found a way to fix the DB issues by drafting two of the top prospects at that position in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. He also found a way to fill their biggest training camp hole by trading for WR Jahan Dotson.

Simply put, this is a put up or shut up year for Nick Sirianni. In fact, it’s likely a year that determines his fate as Eagles HC. And based on what I’ve heard and seen, I think he’s learned a lot from the last two years and will step up and have one of his best seasons yet.

#8: LA CHARGERS over 8.5 wins (-125 DK)

I could be drinking the Kool-Aide here. As we have seen a lot of bets come in on the Chargers solely based on their hiring of HC Jim Harbaugh. But while that factors in my handicapping, the Chargers 2023 misfortunes are also something that aligns with 2024 being a turnaround season.

First off, the Chargers were much better than a 5-12 team. Their Pythagorean win total was 7.1 which was 2.1 wins over their actual performance. This was due to a league high 8 losses in one-score games. Which feels like same old Chargers.

And then there’s their inexplicable ability to run the ball last season. They had the 6^th fewest rushing yards (1642) and 6^th fewest yards per attempt (3.8). Which explains why they used their first round pick on OT Joe Alt. Pairing him with Rashawn Slater could add up to being one of the best O-Lines in the league this season. The Chargers also reshaped the running back room bringing in Ravens castoffs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who will both bring a form of physicality they haven’t seen in years.

Next, I’m still a believer in QB Justin Herbert. His outside weapons aren’t deep but they are young in Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson. And he’s now listening to a former NFL QB who has had success in this league. I expect Herbert to flourish this year and have one of his best seasons yet.

Finally, the Chargers have the 2^nd easiest schedule in the league. They have to win games in their division to get to 9+ wins, which they should be able to do against QB’s Bo Nix and Gardner Minshew. And take this as additional fuel, Harbaugh took a 6-10 team and turned them into a 13-3 team in his first season in SF. I’m buying, and drinking, the punch out in LA.

Now that you finished reading the 2024 NFL WIN TOTAL article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

NFL Super Bowl LVIII Showdown

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the final slate of the 2023–24 NFL season. After 21 grueling weeks, the NFL season comes down to two teams. On the AFC side, you have the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and on the NFC side, you have the San Francisco 49ers, who are looking to avenge their 2020 loss to the Chiefs.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays on both the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets in Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($10.6K DK, $15K FD)

Mahomes needs no introduction; the KC QB is looking to secure his third ring in just seven years. This was an off year for Mahomes; he had a career high 67.2% completion percentage but nearly had career lows in passing yards and touchdowns. Mahomes also had a career high of 14 thrown interceptions this season. But he has managed to have three solid outings in the playoffs to get Kansas City into the Super Bowl. He faces a 49er pass defense that, outside of the first half against the Lions, has looked good during the postseason. Mahomes’s legs are going to have to play a big role during the Super Bowl as the 49ers pass rush can get after QBs.

For me, Mahomes is playable in the CPT/MVP spots or as a Flex play. I’ll have Mahomes in about 35–45% of my lineups, with 10–15% of those lineups having him at the CPT/MVP spots.

Brock Purdy ($10K DK, $14.5K FD)

Whether you think of Purdy as nothing more than a game manager or as a legit MVP candidate, you can’t deny he has played a role in the 49ers making it to Las Vegas. During the regular season, Purdy was one of the better QBs in the NFL, finishing in the top five in passing yards (5th), completion percentage (4th), touchdowns (3rd), and QBR (T1st). But during his two playoff games this season, he has not been able to duplicate his in-season success, as he is averaging fewer yards and touchdowns and has a lower completion percentage per game. His matchup for the SB doesn’t get any easier, as he has to deal with a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has stopped Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Lamar in their three playoff games. The KC pass defense has allowed an average of 219 passing yards per game during the playoffs and only three touchdown passes while grabbing two interceptions.

For the 49ers to have a chance, Purdy will need to play like the MVP finalist he was. With the weapons at his disposal, I do believe he is going to use every weapon available to try and help SF secure their sixth ring in team history. I will be playing Purdy at either the CPT/MVP spots or the Flex spot on every site. My ownership of Purdy on DraftKings and FanDuel will be similar to Mahomes, so I’ll be looking at the 35–45% range, with about 15-20% of those being at the CPT/MVP spots.

The RBs:

Christian McCaffrey ($12K DK, $17.5K FD)

McCaffrey is the highest-priced guy on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and that is for a good reason. The 2023 Offensive Player of the Year is one of the main reasons why SF gets to travel to Vegas to take on KC. He has averaged 130 total yards and two touchdowns during the playoffs. His ability to not only run but also catch passes out of the backfield will play a huge role, as Purdy may face pressure for large parts of this game. McCaffrey will be the most owned guy in my lineups, as I am going to use him in about 65-70% of my lineups, spread out between both the CPT/MVP and Flex spots. I’d rather have the best offensive player on the field than lose because I didn’t use him.

Isaiah Pacheco ($8K DK, $12.5K FD)

The second-year RB has been a great compliment to KC’s passing game. Pacheco is one of the hardest running backs I have seen in a while, and his rushing yards reflect that. Pacheco has 254 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his three playoff games this season. He gets an interesting matchup in the Super Bowl as the 49ers defense hasn’t been as great as they were during the regular season. They have allowed Aaron Jones and David Montgomery to have good games against them. With the way Pacheco has been running, I can see the SF defense once again struggling to stop the run game. My ownership of Pacheco will be in the 45–55% range.

The Backup Backs:

Both the 49ers and Chiefs have backup RBs that can see the field, but outside of MME, I am not using many of them. On the SF side, Elijah Mitchell has 79 carries for 288 yards and three touchdowns this season. Outside of McCaffrey suffering an injury, Mitchell will not see the field outside of a carry or two when CMC needs a breather. On the KC side, Pacheco’s backup is former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH has not had much of a workload this season, only having double-digit touches three times all year. The way Pacheco has run all season makes it difficult to see him leaving the field. I’ll have both of these guys in under 5% of my lineups, with maybe a lineup or two with them at CPT/MVP.

Technically not a RB, but one lower-priced player listed at RB that I am taking a shot at is Kyle Juszczyk. He is not a player who is going to light up the scoresheet, but he has shown to be a security blanket for Purdy during the QBs short career so far. We saw it against the Lions during the conference title game. When Purdy had to run around behind the line of scrimmage, he was able to connect with the fullback on a nice play. Juszczyk will be featured in 7–10% of my lineups.

The WRs:

Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8K DK, $10.5K FD)

Despite having 14 targets, Aiyuk has struggled a bit during the postseason, only having six catches in the 49ers two playoff games. But I don’t see that struggle continuing during the Super Bowl. While San Francisco has great players like McCaffrey, whom I’ve mentioned prior, and Samuel, whom I’ll mention in a moment, Aiyuk is their best pass catcher. I think the attention will be more on McCaffrey and Samuel, so Aiyuk should find some space to have a successful Super Bowl. I’ll have him in about 35–40% of my lineups, with a small percentage of those being in the CPT/MVP spots.

Deebo Samuel ($9.2K DK, $11.5K FD)

The second-best playmaker on the SF roster behind McCaffrey. With Samuel being an explosive player, he will be lined up in the backfield at points during the game. I expect Samuel to finish only behind McCaffrey in touches for the 49ers. Snead should be splitting his snaps between Aiyuk and Samuel, which means one of them should always have a better matchup when Snead is on the other one. I will have more Samuel lineups than Aiyuk, so he’ll be around 40–45% owned by me.

Jauan Jennings ($4K DK, $7K FD)

Jennings isn’t going to light up the scoresheet by any means. But he has been targeted a good amount on third downs during the season. He is not someone I am prioritizing, but I will have him in about 5–7% of my lineups. With all my ownership being in the Flex spot.

Rashee Rice ($7.6K DK, $11K FD)

If you read any of my articles last season during the CFB season, you will know Rice is one of my favorite WRs. His breakout rookie performance is not shocking to me, and I expect him to continue turning heads during the Super Bowl. With every KC WR struggling over the course of the season, Rice has taken control of the WR1 spot. He has over 1100 yards this season, including in the playoffs. Being KC’s second-best pass catcher behind TE Kelce makes Rice a solid option at both CPT/MVP and the Flex spots. He will be one of my highest-owned guys, with 50–55% ownership in my lineups.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3K DK, $7.5K FD)

MVS is one of my favorite value plays for the Super Bowl. He has not had much success this season, only having 26 receptions all year, including the playoffs. But during the AFC Championship game, Mahomes targeted him in what ended up being the game-clinching 32-yard reception. If Mahomes and Reid are going to trust him during clutch time, who am I to doubt him? MVS will be featured in 15-20% of my lineups for the Super Bowl, with a handful of times appearing in the CPT/MVP spot.

There are a handful of other WRs who will be active for the Super Bowl, like Conley and McCloud for SF and Watson, Moore, Hardman, and James for KC. I have little interest in the majority of them, as I think the four WRs listed above are the ones I would focus on more. But that is not to say I will not include each of them in a lineup; none will be used in more than 5% of my lineups.

The TEs

Travis Kelce ($10.2K DK, $13K FD)

Starting off the TE section with the best TE over the past couple of years. Kelce has played a huge role in Kansas City’s success since superstar WR Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Kelce leads all KC pass catchers with 116 receptions and 1246 yards. Kelce is going to have to play a huge role if KC wants to win back-to-back Super Bowls and gets a great matchup to succeed in. The SF defense has struggled to contain TEs the back half of the year, giving up big games, including to rookie Sam LaPorta two weeks ago. Based on the matchup, I am going to have a lot of Kelce in about 50–55% of lineups.

George Kittle ($6.4K DK, $10K FD)

Kittle sometimes gets forgotten about, with SF having a lot of great weapons. But he is still one of the best TEs in the NFL. In the 49ers two playoff games, he has six receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. The KC defense has been great all playoffs, but with the secondary having to deal with Aiyuk and Samuel, Kittle can be in for a great day as they will not be focused on him. I will have Kittle in 30–35% of my lineups, with about 7–10% being in the CPT/MVP spot, as he will not be highly owned there currently, only projected at about 5%.

The D/ST and Kickers

Starting off with the D/ST, both sides are in play for the Super Bowl. Outside of small lapses during the playoffs, both defenses in this game have been good. The one I will have more of, despite thinking they will lose in the end, is the KC D/ST. Sacks are going to be big in this game, and with the 49er offensive line struggling and allowing Purdy to face a lot of pressure, I can see KC getting to Purdy a lot during the game. For the Super Bowl, the KC D/ST will be in 15-20% of my lineups. On the other side, I like the SF D/ST as well. Their front seven is one of the best in the league, and they can stop just about anyone when they are clicking. I will have fewer of them than KC, but they will still be in 10-15% of lineups.

The two kickers for the Super Bowl are two of the better-value plays on the slate. Both kickers will be featured in about 15-20% of my lineups. I think the game is going to go over, so I’m expecting both Butker and Moody to have FG attempts and PATs.

Favorite Plays

CPTs/MVPs:

Christian McCaffrey
Rashee Rice
Deebo Samuel
Isaiah Pacheco
George Kittle

Flex Plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Brock Purdy
Travis Kelce
Chiefs D/ST
Brandon Aiyuk
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Both Kickers
49ers D/ST
Kyle Juszczyk

Drago’s Best Bets:

San Francisco ML
Over 47.5

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at h ttps://windailysports.com/nfl/

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Game Bets – SUPER BOWL LVIII

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

This is it! The final game of the 2023 NFL Season. One in which we have two giants of the league facing each other for the 2nd time in 4 years. Will the 49ers be able to contain Mahomes and Kelce? Will Brock Purdy become a Super Bowl winning QB? Or will Andy Reid and the Chiefs cement their 3rd Super Bowl and become the latest team to be called a dynasty?

For us personally, we need this win to come out in the positive for the playoffs. After a stellar regular season, my game bets for the playoffs are a lukewarm 6-6. But the props were hot in the Conference Championship Round as I went 2-0 in that department.

So it’s time to dive into the Big Game. One in which our own Jason Mezrahi is currently deployed to. While he’s digging through Media Row and trying to ensure he has a pulse by Sunday, I’m here to give you my early leans on Super Bowl LVIII. Enjoy and let’s close out the greatest team sport with putting money in our wallets.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 6-6 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – SUPER BOWL LVIII

SUN 6:00 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Just four short years ago, these two teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV. I was in the middle of a solid streak of Super Bowl wins and decided to bet San Fran who closed as a small favorite. And after 3 quarters, I felt really good about my decision to back Jimmy G and the boys. And the 4th quarter opened with a Patrick Mahomes interception even boosting my faith in the 49ers by twofold. But then some poor offensive execution and an absolute blunder on a Mahomes long ball prayer to Tyreek Hill changed everything. The Chiefs scored 21 points in the last 6 minutes and 30 seconds which led to Andy Reid’s first Super Bowl victory as a head coach and the start of a new dynasty in the AFC.

That game still stings me, and I imagine 49ers fans feel even worse. For 54 minutes of a 60-minute games, the 49ers were in full control. But they fizzled and fell flat on their face which ultimately led to them attempting to bring in a new QB (traded up to #3 in the 2021 draft for Trey Lance) and bring a new aspect to an offense that was stifled late. While the Lance project failed, they found the ultimate gem in QB Brock Purdy. And now they’ve hitched their hopes and dreams to a Round 7 QB. Sound familiar New England fans?

So this Super Bowl, while similar in faces, will have a different approach and feel to it then that of Super Bowl LIV. And to me, this San Francisco team is a better version of the one they put on the field for SB LIV. They’re offense is more dynamic as San Fran ended the regular season with the top rated offense per DVOA+, finishing 1st in passing and 2nd in rushing. On defense, they’re an aggressive unit that effectively pressures the QB. This led to them ranking 4th in defensive DVOA+ and 7th in sacks. With all the focus on Baltimore, the 49ers are the best overall team in the league.

But obviously that doesn’t put any fear in the Chiefs. They just brushed off the two best teams in the AFC by winning on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore. They never blink when faced with pressure or adversity. Instead, they thrive in that environment. And we all know Mahomes is the most dangerous as an underdog posting a 10-1 record ATS in such games.

The other X factor is DC Steve Spagnolo. He’s been brilliant in the playoffs by creating gameplans that have shut down the league MVP and runner up. Surely he’ll craft up something to neutralize Brock Purdy and force him into bad decisions.

However, I’m reading the wave of public betting and experts picks that are all leaning one way. Almost 80% of the bets and 78% of the money is on the Chiefs. Yet, the spread has moved towards the 49ers by 0.5 points (opened at SF -1.5 and is currently SF -2). Looking at all the main media outlets, you see a heavy balance of Chiefs backers. On ESPN.com, 49 of the 64 experts pick the Chiefs including Bill Barnwell. Barstool Sports president Dave Portnoy has placed a $500K bet on Kansas City. The list is endless and I challenge you to find someone picking the 49ers.

In the end, as much as I fear what Purdy will do when pressured, I think SF will be able to pick up big chunks in their running game. Unlike Baltimore, who just abandoned the rush, the 49ers will continue to pound the rock with their best player, and it will keep Spagnolo guessing and his defense in passive mode. This will open up play action and room for Deebo and Kittle to make big plays in the passing game.

On defense, the one area that gives Mahomes trouble is a defensive line that can win their matchups. Remember their one Super Bowl loss was due to the relentless pressure from Tampa’s D-Line. The 49ers D-line can win those battles with Bosa, Young and Hargrave as top 10 players at their respective positions. I see the 49ers defense making a critical play late in the game that will lead towards them bringing home the Lombardi.

All the trends and 80% of the people are seeing red. Instead I’m seeing burgundy and hope that will turn into a wave of green.

GAME TOTAL: OVER 47

Everyone loves a good shootout. We had one last year with Philly and KC as well. I see a similar script in this one and like the over the total. While KC’s defense has been brilliant, the 49ers are 2nd in points per game at 28.8. They’ve scored 27 or more in 13 of their 19 games. And the Chiefs offense has found a rhythm of late as they are averaging 23.7 per game in the playoffs. Even with hitting their averages, I see this game falling in the low 50’s.

Fun fact, the over is 28-28 all time in Super Bowl history.

GAME PROPS:

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY over 4.5 rec (-130): Just set it and forget it. The Chiefs aggressive man-to-man defense allows for mismatches in the short passing game. CMac is going to the be the next in line of running backs to have a great receiving game against KC.

PATRICK MAHOMES over 4.5 rushing attempts (-110): Mahomes has 12 rushing attempts in the past 2 playoff games. He’s going to feel the pressure of the 49ers defensive front and look to use his legs to gain yards. I looked at “running” QB’s that have played the 49ers this year and this was their rushing line:

Lamar Jackson 7 for 45 yards
Jalen Hurts 7 for 20 yards
Kyler Murray 6 for 49 yards

This shows there is room to run against SF if Mahomes wants to take it. And based off the last two games, where he had 6 rushes in each game, and the ability of other running QB’s to find room to run, this is a good number to bet.

ISAIAH PACHECO over 16.5 receiving yards (-110): Let’s just stick with the RB’s on Sunday. Both pass defenses are solid but tend to allow yards out of the backfield. The 49ers allowed 90 receptions and 625 yards receiving to RB’s. That was 7th most (receptions) and 8th most (yards) in the NFL. Pacheco went over this number in 2 of the 3 playoff games so far and 4 of his last 6 overall.

GEORGE KITTLE longest reception over 21.5 receiving yards (-110): Kittle has gone over this number in both playoff games with catches of 28 and 32 yards respectively. Going back further, He’s gone over this number in 7 of his last 8 games. And he exceeded it in 12 of his 18 games total this year. He beats this number 67% of the time and with odds of -110 we’re getting good EV (Note: odds of -110 means you have expected winning of 52.4% but Kittle has gone over this in 67% of his games).

COIN TOSS – TAILS (-110); Because it never fails. And is 30-27 all time against heads in Super Bowl’s.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Game Bets – Conference Championship Round

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a decent Divisional Round weekend with our NFL Game Bets. Saturday saw us assess the possibility of at least one of the #1 seeds struggling (10-14-2 ATS since 2010). The issue is we got the game in which it occurred incorrect. But then Sunday came and we got both of those outcomes correct to even out our record to 5-5 in the playoffs.

Sunday 1/28/24 UPDATE: On Thursday I gave out my initial leans. Today, I’ve locked in my two primary bets. We’re dialing up Ravens -4 (I’ve seen it drop to -3.5 in some books) and Lions +7.5.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-5 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

SUN 3:00 PM – BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

My concerns with Baltimore were circled around their recent trend of having offensive struggles in playoff games. And that did rear its head early in the Divisional Round, as Baltimore went into halftime tied at 10 with Houston. But something happened in the second half. The Ravens put the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands on the first drive which resulted in two scripted QB runs and four pass plays to get the ball in the endzone. On the ensuing drive, they once again trusted Jackson in making the right plays and drove the ball 93 yards to take a 14-point lead. Game, set and match.

And now that weight of winning a playoff game and reaching the conference finals for the first time in 10 years, is totally off their shoulders. Which I believe is a huge factor in handicapping this game. Baltimore will now play at home for the 4th game in a row, which means they haven’t traveled since Christmas Day when they beat the 49ers in San Francisco.

But there’s a giant on the opposing sideline this weekend. And that’s the reigning Super Bowl Champions in the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is almost unbeatable as an underdog. In his career he is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog on the road. This is undeniably a proverbial behemoth that hardly loses. And when they do, it’s not without a fight.

However, here are the trends that I’m weighing heavily. Teams playing a 4th consecutive home game, entering a Conference Championship, are 7-1 SU. Additionally, HC John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs since 2012. His counterpart, Andy Reid, is 0-2 SU on the road in Conference Championships.

In the end, Kansas City’s struggles this year have been on offense. And they are now facing their biggest challenge in the Ravens who allow the least points per game in the NFL. The Ravens also create significant pressure, leading the NFL in sacks. The Ravens are not going to allow Travis Kelce to beat them. Someone in the Chiefs WR room will have to step up. And that’s where my confidence in the Chiefs stops. Also factor in the we’ve seen 64% of the tickets and 73% of the money pour in on KC. Yet, in some books, the line has moved up to Baltimore -4. That’s a clear signal that Vegas has a beat on this game.

GAME PROPS:

JUSTICE HILL over 2.5 rec (+150): The Ravens don’t throw a lot in general. And that’s even more true in terms of throws to their RB’s. But one area in which the Chiefs will concede is throws to the running backs. Just look at the last 4 games and how teams RB’s fared:

1/21/24 at Buffalo: RB’s 10 targets / 8 catches (Cook led with 4 catches)
1/13/24 vs Miami: RB’s 10 targets / 5 catches (Achane led with 3 catches)
1/7/24 at LAC: RB’s 9 targets / 8 catches (Ekeler led with 7 catches)
12/31/23 vs Cincy: 6 targets / 6 catches (Mixon led with 4 catches)

So you see a trend here. As discussed on last nights’ NFL Draftcast, I expect Justice Hill to have a larger role than Gus Edwards. And if that turns out to be the case, Hill should be the recipient of the pass catching opportunities and keep up a trend of lead RB’s getting at least 3 catches versus KC.

SUN 6:30 PM – DETROIT LIONS +7.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

A big factor in this bet is the health of San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel. This season, 49ers are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS when Deebo plays and finishes a game. They are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t. Brock Purdy looks more like the last pick in the draft when missing his go-to WR. And although Detroit’s secondary is suspect, without Samuel they can cover that up with creative blitz packages.

Then there’s this idea of how Jared Goff struggles against the blitz. In reality, he’s rather efficient as he led the league in passing yards when facing a blitz. He also threw the second most TD’s, 13, trailing only Jordan Love. When he faces teams that sack the QB at a rate of 4% or more, which SF does, he is 7-1 ATS this season. And since we know the Lions offensive line is one of the tops in the league, the only true way to get to a 4% sack rate will be via the blitz. So is sending the house really a strategy that SF is willing to take this weekend? That will be one of the more interesting moves to keep an eye on when the Lions have the ball.

Ultimately, the Lions are good enough to hang with any team in the league. They’ve shown that with road wins in KC, Green Bay and Tampa. And they should have another one under their belt but they ended up losing by one point to Dallas late in the year on the road. Their 6-3 record on the road was 2nd in the NFC behind only SF (7-2). I just think 7 points is too much considering the Lions only lost by more than 7 twice all year (for comparison 49ers lost by more than 7 points twice as well).

So let’s keep an eye on Deebo’s status but my early lean is to ride the blue wave in Detroit and take the 7 points.

DAVID MONTGOMERY over 43.5 yards rushing – Montgomery has gone over this number in all but two of his 16 games played this season (subtracting the game where got hurt vs TB). The Lions pride themselves on being a rushing first team. And we just saw a similar style runner in Aaron Jones go for 108 rushing yards versus this SF defense.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Conference Championship Weekend Breakdown

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

And then there were four. The Divisional Round played out beautifully, with no real upsets this weekend. As we enter the final multi-game slate this Sunday, let’s start preparing for the toughest weekend in DFS to get different from the field. There will be chalk galore up and down lineups, so give it all you got. Put your thinking caps on and get creative because the next time won’t be until September that we see more than one NFL contest.

Time to chop it up for this Championship Weekend. Two games, four elite teams. One total reaches the fifties, the other in the mid-forties. The field will flock to the Niners/Lions game, but as history has shown, the Ravens and Chiefs are no strangers to lighting up the scoreboards either.

Stay tuned to our Discord’s injury news, updates, and building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now on to the Conference Championship Breakdown, the final multi-slate weekend of the 2023-24 season for NFL DFS!

Sunday Slate 1/28/24

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5) (U/O 44.5)

Pat Mahomes has been the Grim Reaper for his career during the playoffs for the Bills, sending them home early yet again, but will lightning strike twice? Only time will tell as the two-time Super Bowl Champ will face the number-one ranked defense on the road in Baltimore. The Chiefs’ defense will also have to contain Lamar Jackson on the other side of the ball, who may be named this year’s MVP any day now after his four total touchdown performance against Houston. But DC Steve Spagnolo and the Chiefs’ front seven are far superior to the Texans’ caliber of coverage, so don’t be surprised if they slow down Jackson and the Ravens offense.

As much as I anticipate a great game between these titans of the AFC, for DFS and Kansas City, we can’t put too many eggs in this basket. Travis Kelce is finally back and revived after his two-touchdown game against Buffalo, so he is a go after what I witnessed in the Divisional Round. Rashee Rice took a back seat last game, but he is still Pat Mahomes’ number-one option in my book, as he has averaged double-digit targets for the second half of the season. Finally, it’s been the Isaiah Pacheco show in KC’s backfield. Head Coach Andy Reid has finally found his three-down back in his tenure and will continue to ride the coattails of Pacheco, as he sees all the work on the goal line and touches the ball 20-plus times per game. It will be a tough matchup but still have faith in the defending champs.

There’s been some banter yet again about Mark Andrews making his return to the field for the AFC Championship for Baltimore and it’s been confirmed that he will play, but why the rush? Lamar Jackson and Isaiah Likely have been inseparable in the endzone together, hooking up on one this past weekend. But if the Ravens want to reach the big dance, they’ll need to be successful in the run game, as KC’s third-strongest secondary coverage has allowed less than 180 yards through the air on average. Jackson has carried the bulk of the rushing for Baltimore this season, but he’ll need some help from Gus Edwards and Justice Hill on Sunday. Both backs averaged about four yards per carry against Houston, but Hill’s work in the passing game (averaging four catches per game since Week 16) at his low salary is tempting for DFS managers.

Update: Mark Andrews has been activated off of IR and will play this Sunday. Lamar Jackson gets his favorite passing target back on the field since Week 11. Isaiah Likely will see a downgrade with Andrews back in action.

Top rookie prospect Zay Flowers quietly caught four passes for 41 yards in Baltimore’s playoff victory, but still is considered to be the Ravens’ WR1 going into Sunday. He’s way underpriced to $6K on DraftKings, making him a steal for a top target alongside an MVP quarterback. His matchup is terrifying going up against a defense that just suffocated Stefon Diggs, but the options at receiver are slim pickings this weekend.

Update: Isaiah Pacheco still questionable to play, CEH will be the free square if Pacheco is a no-go.

Historical Fact: Nelson Agholor has 22 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown in seven total playoff games.

Honorable Mentions: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman

Lions @ Niners (-7.5) (U/O 51)

The second half of the doubleheader will be set in Santa Clara, California as the Lions will ride their momentum into the NFC Championship and attempt to make it to their first ever Super Bowl. However, the Forty Niners have been the beasts of the conference and will not be a walk in the park for Detroit as opponents, especially since Vegas has them as a touchdown favorite to come out victorious. With the highest total of the slate, expect the majority of the field to draft in this game for DFS.

The Lions have been the rags-to-riches story for the NFL over the past few seasons. From the laughing stock with a record of 3-13-1 in 2021 to being one win away from the big game has been a huge feather in Head Coach Dan Campbell’s hat. But it will be an uphill road for Detroit to make it out to Vegas, as the Niners will be one of their toughest opponents since Kansas City in Week One.

Jared Goff will be outdoors on the road in this matchup, so I’m iffy using him for DFS. His supporting cast however is all systems go. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta will command most of the passing targets, with Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams to pick up the scraps. Whichever route you choose for Daily Fantasy is up to you, there are no wrong decisions this late in the season. Now as far as the Lions’ backs, it’s been the Jahmyr Gibbs show. Even though David Montgomery still sees his usual 10-12 carries per game, it’s Gibbs who has had more pep in his step, especially in the passing game catching all eight of his targets this postseason.

In other Lions news this week, veteran tight end Zach Ertz was signed off the street. He’ll be a popular dark horse on the slate this weekend because of his minimum-priced salary. He’s a 50/50 shot of giving you an ROI, which would be about three catches for thirty yards. Also, check out Detroit as a defense this weekend. They are the least expensive, mainly because of the points they allow per game but are fully capable of racking up a few sacks with pressure by tackles such as Aidan Hutchinson.

As for the home team, Frisco is still up in the air with the status of Deebo Samuel, who injured his shoulder against Green Bay last week. His being unable to suit up would be a crucial blow to the Niners’ offense, which was unstable in the win. San Fransisco is 7-10 in a total of 17 games without Deebo in his career, so for their sake, he hopefully can give it a go.

Brock Purdy, fortunately, has the best matchup of the weekend with the Deebo news, as the Lions are 30th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will both see an uptick in targets, as well as running back Christian McCaffrey. If Deebo does sit out, Jauan Jennings could see a heavier snap share, along with other bench players Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud.

Update: Deebo Samuel is back at practice, and has a good chance to suit up this Sunday. Great matchup to line up across Detroit’s Kindle Vildor.

Lastly, we all want the best of the best in our lineups with McCaffrey. He’ll be up against the number-one-ranked run defense, but with his volume and skill set, we have to put those stats in the rearview mirror in a game with this amount of magnitude. He’s the most expensive, so to cash we’ll need pieces like a Jauan Jennings or a Josh Reynolds. Fading McCaffrey is also an option, and using the extra salary on an Aiyuk/Amon-Ra combo, but I’d be hedging with CMC in other builds in case he does blow the doors off the slate.

Thanks for reading my 2024 Conference Championship Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Game Bets – Divisional Round Weekend

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We have a great weekend of football ahead of us as the NFL enters the Divisional Round. As a recap for Wildcard Weekend, I went 3-3 on game bets and if I could have let my heart stay quiet, we would have been 5-1 (Damn Flacco and the Birds). But it shows we have a good pulse on several of these teams and looking forward to dissecting these games. The storylines are also deep this week as we see San Fran and Green Bay matchup for the 10th time in the playoffs. And we have Mahomes vs. Allen for what is the third leg of their playoff trilogy.

The other two games have interesting parallels as both Houston/Baltimore and Tampa Bay/Detroit faced off in the regular season. The first rounds were both double digit affairs, but the dogs are coming into these games hot and with something to prove.

SATURDAY 1/20/24 UPDATE: Player Props added to SF game and DET/TB game posted

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-5 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – DIVISIONAL ROUND SATURDAY

SAT 4:30 PM – HOUSTON TEXANS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

Last week against the Browns, CJ Stroud looked like a veteran QB that had navigated the pressures of the playoffs. But yet that was his first playoff game and he wowed by throwing 3 TD’s and completing 76% of his passes. In doing so, he became the youngest QB to win a playoff game in NFL history. He also tied Lamar Jackson, this week’s opposing QB, for career playoff victories.

This game will come down to whether the Texans can effectively move the ball through the air against the number 1 pass defense in the league. And whether the Ravens can move the ball on the ground against the number 2 rush defense in the NFL For Houston, they’ll need to establish the run to open up the pass similar to what they did against Cleveland. Stroud silenced the pass rush using play action early and often. And in Baltimore’s four losses this season they’ve allowed an average of 140 yards rushing per game.

Here’s the other points to consider. CJ Stroud is 6-1 ATS against teams over 0.500 this season. And since Week 2, he is 9-3 in games he started. The three losses have come by a combined 7 points. As for the Ravens, they are the number one seed for a reason and have the most well rounded team in the AFC. But since 2010, number one seeds are just 10-14-2 ATS. Even more worrisome is they are just 18-8 SU.

I think there’s enough juice in the tank, and enough players on the Houston sideline for them to compete for 60 minutes against Baltimore. They lost in week 1 by a score of 25-9. But they were only down 7-6 at half and actually outgained Baltimore by 3 yards. The difference was Baltimore scored TD’s on their drives while Houston settled for three FG’s. With a full season now under his belt, I expect Stroud to turn those three’s into seven’s and make this a much more competitive game.

GAME PROPS:

DEVIN SINGLETARY anytime TD scorer (+130) and over 61.5 yards rushing (-110): If the Texans are to stay close, they’ll need Singletary to get yards on the ground and in the air. He’s scored a TD in two straight games so he has that going for him. And he’s gone over 61.5 yards in five of his last six.

ISAIAH LIKELY over 18.5 yards longest reception (-110): Likely gone well over this number in five straight games. And the one he missed, six weeks ago, his longest was 18 yards. Bottom line, he’s tough to tackle in open space and we saw Njoku have success against the Texans last week.

SAT 8:15 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -9.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers looked good as you possibly could last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay pulled off the massive upset winning in the Boys home stadium, something that hadn’t been done in 16 games. Now they face an even tougher task, and that’s the 49ers who are the best all-around football team in the NFL.

Looking at matchups, San Fran should have no problem moving the ball against Green Bay. The Pack are both 26th in passing defense and rushing defense DVOA. San Fran on the other hand is 4th in passing defense DVOA and 15th in rushing defense DVOA. But more impressively, they have the #1 rated offense according to DVOA. And that’s really the big difference here in this game. San Fran will put up points but can also get enough stops to win by margin.

I love Green Bay. From Matt LeFleur to Jordan Love, I’ve been riding the team from the bay in Wisconsin all year. But this is where the buck stops. I have concerns about Green Bay’s health on defense. Their star DB Jaire Alexander is questionable, and they have ruled out linebacker Kingsley Enagbare. Even at full strength, this is a defense that has often struggled against high-powered offenses.

San Fran is 5-2 against playoff teams this season with their only true loss to Baltimore (lost Week 18 to LA Rams). On the other hand, Green Bay was 3-3 against playoff teams during the regular season. Plus Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 ATS and SU at home in the playoffs.

GEORGE KITTLE over 54.5 yards receiving – The Packers allow the 5th most fantasy points to TE’s. They’ve allowed over this number to 5 of the last 6 TE’s they faced. And we saw what Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson did in the middle of the field last week.

BRANDON AIYUK over 4.5 receptions – Green Bay is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s. And even if Alexander plays, he primarily plays on one side of the field. It’s a toss up between Deebo and Aiyuk as who is truly #1 WR in this offense. But in this particular matchup I think Deebo will get more of the focus leaving opportunities for Aiyuk.

SUN 3:00 PM – DETROIT LIONS -6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

Between WinDaily staff and subscribers, I feel like I’m in the minority for this game. On the surface, Tampa was dominant, and Detroit looked lucky to win. There are several recent events where the team that squeaked by in the Wild Card round failed to win in the Divisional round. But there aren’t many occasions where that team played at home two weeks in a row (wildcard to divisional) since that could only happen in the new playoff format which started in 2020-21.

But I tend to believe the Lions should play better this week without the pressure of having to win a playoff game for the first time in 32 years. Plus, facing the Rams was additional pressure that definitely weighed on the Lions. That was all lifted off their back and now they can dial completely in on their opponent this week, who they dominated earlier this year winning 20-6 in Tampa. As for Tampa, they looked great last week but played a flawed team in Philly. If they come with the same game plan, all-out blitzes, and leave the middle open, they will get exposed by the short passing game of the Lions.

A key factor to me will be redzone possessions. I was impressed with the Lions redzone defense as they forced the Rams into three FG’s. That could be a difference this week as Detroit is 2nd in redzone TD efficiency and Tampa Bay is 30th.

Finally, QB Jared Goff actually plays well against teams above 0.500. He’s 7-3 ATS at home and 14-5 ATS overall against such teams in a Lions uniform. And for all the research I did, I can’t find a team with 8 losses to ever make the conference championship game. So as much as I fear backing Dan Campbell, I just think the Lions have the right mix to roll over the Bucs.

JAMESON WILLIAMS over 35.5 yard (-110) / over 50 yards (+170) / over 75 yards (+470) – He let a lot of people down last week so that’s the exact reason to go back to the well in this one. We saw Devonta Smith beat Tampa over the top last week which is a weekly occurrence for the Bucs D. Williams is the one deep threat in this offense. The Lions WR had two catches for 53 yards, including a 45 yard TD catch, in their first outing.

MIKE EVANS over 5.5 receptions (+125) – Don’t get turned off by Evans’ numbers last week as he had a tough matchup versus CB Darius Slay. But he also dropped two balls that would have put him over 100 yards. Evans saw 7 targets last week and saw 10 targets when the Bucs played Detroit back in Week 6. This is a good number for a high volume WR.

SUN 6:00 PM – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 at BUFFALO BILLS

I am a Bills fan at heart. The small city in Western New York has endured too many heartbreaks over the past 3 decades. And today, they face their biggest adversary in the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are 2-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. And while Buffalo won the game in KC earlier this year, that goes out the window for this affair.

I’m buying up the Chiefs to 3 points but think they’re live on the moneyline as well. Mahomes is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. And Andy Reid is 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. As much as I want the Bills to win one for Buffalo, I can’t ignore those numbers.

JAMES COOK over 2.5 receptions – He doesn’t score TD’s but he makes up for that in the passing game. Cook has 44 receptions on the year and went over this total in the past two weeks. He also had five catches on five targets in the first game against KC. How often the Chiefs blitz helps drive this number up.

RASHEE RICE over 70.5 yards – Rice has been on a tear since midseason. He’s the beneficiary of teams trying to minimize Kelce’s impact on games. He had 10 targets and 72 yards in his first matchup against Buffalo. I expect a similar workload today, and one where he could break one of those quick hitters for a big game to help get him over this number.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Divisional Round Weekend Breakdown

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Well, the 2024 Wild Card Weekend is in the books, and what a thriller! It was loaded with upsets, where we witnessed Jordan Love stroll into AT&T Stadium like he owned the Cowboys. The rookie quarterback CJ Stroud shredded the Browns in another big upset, as Joe Flacco watched from the sidelines after throwing back-to-back pick sixes.

The number one seeds will now enter the mix, as we are left with eight teams to slug it out this weekend. So we have four games in total, two on Saturday and two on Sunday, all with some decent totals. Again, let’s keep it simple for DFS, but get different in a few spots for some separation. Get creative with your builds, but stay on track, and let’s get across those pay lines.

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now on to the Divisional Breakdown, which is hands down the best slate of NFL DFS!

Saturday Slate 1/20/24

Texans @ Ravens (-9.5) (U/O 43.5)

The Houston Texans led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud enter the Divisional Round as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they’ll need every ounce of their talent to beat Baltimore. The Ravens have earned the one seed and will host the contest, not only has Lamar Jackson lit up the scoreboard with his offense, but their defense has been tremendous. Baltimore has held its opponents to just under 16 points per game on the year, so we’ll see what Stroud has left up his sleeve come Saturday afternoon.

The spread indicates Houston will be playing from behind all game, so we’ll be interested in the Texan pass catchers for DFS. Nico Collins has been the only game in town for Houston. Since Week 18, he’s caught 15 receptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns, solidifying himself as Stroud’s go-to guy when everything is at stake. He’s got a tough matchup, so consider some low ownership to go his way this weekend. But Collins can’t do it alone if the Texans want to move the football, as Baltimore will prepare for him. Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, III, and Devin Singletary will all need to contribute if Houston is going to stay in the game and take some pressure away from Nico.

As for Baltimore, we all should know by now this team is built around Jackson. The 2019 league MVP can burn defenses with his legs or through the air, especially this season with the added weapons of rookie Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely. Houston has been abused by opposing tight ends this season (29th in DVOA), so in the news of Mark Andrews being ruled out, Likely will be popular on Saturday. But hold the phone. Running back Dalvin Cook has been elevated from their practice squad and I would consider for DFS if active, solely on the fact of ownership reasons. Cooks‘ salary has dwindled from the lack of being on the field this season, so if he hits paydirt on Saturday and he’s in your lineup, kudos to you.

Packers @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 50.5)

Saturday Night’s game has the highest total on the slate, and for all the right reasons featuring the most explosive offense in football with the Forty Niners. They’ll face off against Green Bay, a team on cloud nine playing with house money after embarrassing the Cowboys on the road in their Wild Card Round. Green Bay is a big dog in this contest, hopefully, this game does not get out of hand and Jordan Love can keep up with Brock Purdy on Saturday Night.

The Packers leaned heavily on running back Aaron Jones to defeat the Cowboys last week, and we all saw how that turned out… six yards per carry for 118 and three touchdowns. Jones’s success on the ground opened up the door for Love’s passing game, but not so fast. The Niners are not a team you can run on, with household names of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner lurking on the field. The Packers’ receiving core has also been an enigma all year long, as Love shows no discrimination when spreading the football around. It’s been the Jayden Reed show until he laid an egg on managers against Dallas, as Romeo Doubs became the go-to guy scoring 30 DK FPTS. They’re all dart throws unless you have Matt La Fleur’s playbook, so keep that in mind if you decide to take a shot on any Packers receivers.

The Niners are back to full strength. Fresh off a playoff bye and a Week 18 that allowed some rest to their key players, the only thing standing in their way of a win is a little rust. Christian McCaffrey has a matchup of a lifetime and will be chalk all over every slate this weekend. Green Bay has allowed close to 130 rushing yards per game with 14 touchdowns by opposing running backs this season. If the Packers decide to stack the box, it’ll be a walk in the park for Brock Purdy to hit receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as tight end George Kittle. All five will see the highest ownership on the slate as it sits with the highest point total this weekend. Although the field may sway more toward the less expensive Niners, making Deebo Samuel may be the pivot to separation from Kittle and Aiyuk managers.

Sunday Slate 1/21/24

Bucs @ Lions (-6.5) (O/U 48.5)

As we enter day two of the Divisional Round, we get another dose of Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. Both will have the adrenaline flowing through their veins as Mayfield scored 30 fantasy points in a victory over the defending NFC Champion Eagles and Goff in a decisive playoff win against his former team the LA Rams. Sitting with a total close to 50, we should see plenty of points scored especially through the air, as both teams have defended well against the run all season.

We did not see that big game we all expected from Mike Evans in that Phila game last week, but have some faith as he could get there this weekend. The targets were there last week, as a 60-yard pass slipped through his fingertips that could’ve paid off big dividends if he caught it. Fellow teammates Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, and especially tight end Cade Otton were also heavily involved last week as well, all scoring double-digit fantasy points in Wild Card Weekend. Every pass catcher is in play for Tampa against Detroit’s 30th-ranked secondary.

Detroit will benefit as well from a dumpster fire pass cover system in the Bucs. Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean will struggle to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, but if he does get bracketed, expect a big play from Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds. Tight end rookie phenom Sam La Porta is two weeks removed from his Week 18 knee injury too, so we can anticipate an uptick in routes and opportunities. Even though the road passed Tampa is through the air, Head Coach Dan Campbell will heavily enforce his running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but at their prices, it would be pretty risky. I’d rather take a shot on Rachaad White if you wish to go running back in this game, as he owns the entire backfield for the Bucs.

Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (O/U 45)

And now, the main event. The Bills will host the Chiefs in a rematch of their 2022 AFC Divisional Round thriller that ended in a walk-off touchdown by Travis Kelce in overtime. A lot has changed for both teams since then, as Kelce has lost a step, the Chiefs have nobody else to catch the football other than Rashee Rice, and Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs’ bromance has been put on hold. But I’m not worried about a dull contest here, as the defending Super Bowl Champs will not go down easy, and now that the Bills have home-field, the result may be different in 2024.

Mahomes has not been himself even though the Chiefs have made it this far into the playoffs. He hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points on DraftKings since Week 15 and has only scored 30 FPTS. only once this season (Week 7 against the Chargers). The Chiefs have leaned heavily on running back Isaiah Pacheco and receiver Rashee Rice on their road to success, a duo that has surpassed the once-dominant Travis Kelce. Pacheco will continue to see 20-plus carries and Rice will be Mahomes‘ first option when he drops back to pass (30 targets in his last three games).

If Buffalo wants its revenge, it will have to be done on the offensive side of the ball, as their defense has piled up on the injury report. Head Coach Sean McDermott has already ruled out Taylor Rapp, Baylon Spector, and Christian Benford, with Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson, and Rasoul Douglas questionable. Gabe Davis has also been ruled out, and Stefon Diggs popped up with a foot injury late in the week. So it will be a ton of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid for Buffalo as the only healthy options to catch the football. Running back James Cook should see some extra opportunities and will make a nice pivot away from the underpriced, chalky Shakir. Dawson Knox, remember him? He’s in play again with the injury news and a former target machine before Kincaid was drafted. Oh, and by the way, did I forget to mention Josh Allen? He is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate for a reason, that needs no introduction. If you’re in on Buffalo getting a taste of revenge in the playoffs, then a Josh Allen stack is a must-have.

Thanks for reading my 2024 Divisional Round Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Props – Wildcard Weekend (Monday January 15th)

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a slow start to the Wild Card Weekend but hit on both the underdogs yesterday (bets provided on Sirius and Discord) to even out our game bets record at 2-2. And we have one more day to get that number into the positive and that’s exactly what we’re aiming to do today.

The Packers became the first road team to win in the playoffs and have swiftly changed the landscape of the NFC. They made history by being the first #7 seed to win a playoff game. The other #7 seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers, look to repeat that feat today in the AFC.

The nightcap features an embattled QB, Baker Mayfield, facing an embattled team, the Philadelphia Eagles. What team shows up for Philly may potentially define HC Nick Sirianni’s tenure in the City of Brotherly Love.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-2 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD MONDAY

BUFFALO BILLS -10 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

I traded some texts with people in the industry regarding the bets I liked before the playoffs started. And I stuck true to that word, even where I wanted to zag (switch to Houston). But I finally have got to the point where I am comfortable that switching my initial lean is right. And with that, I’m backing the Buffalo Bills today.

I initially leaned towards Pittsburgh because of the Buffalo Bills propensity to play close games versus mediocre teams. And they also have some Dallas Cowboys in them when it comes to the playoffs. There is also the weather, which will obviously be a factor, that can often level the playing field. But the fact of the matter is, the loss of JJ Watt and limitations of QB Mason Rudolph are real.

Here’s what I saw that made me rethink my process. The story and late ascension of Joe Flacco came crashing down in Houston. Same thing happened to Josh Dobbs earlier this year. The NFL eventually figures you out, especially if you’re not a top level talent. Mason Rudolph led the Steelers to a playoff run, but he’s bound to get figured out.

And then there’s the weather which showed up on Saturday night in KC. Better teams, especially ones with a wide difference at QB, can have an even bigger advantage then on a clean field. We saw Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles in the cold and wind and KC was able to just tee off and crowd the line. If Rudolph can’t cut the ball down the field, Buffalo can stack the box and hide their one main weakness, the run defense. And it will allow a D-Line that was 4th in the league in sacks to create havoc on the Steeler’s O-Line.

So I’m back on the table smashing, snow-shoveling, no-shirt wearing bandwagon of the Bills Mafia. The Bills are great front-runners and if they get out to an early lead they should be able to cruise to the Divisional Round and await the dangerous Chiefs.

GAME PROPS:

JAMES COOK over 15.5 carries (-110): The volume has been there of late for Cook. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. And he likely would have got there last week too if it wasn’t for Josh Allen having 15 carries. We all know the weather looks bad but the reason I like this bet is due to the possible game script of Buffalo getting out to a big lead and using the running game to squeeze down the clock. In the games that the Bills have won by double digits this year, Cook has averaged 17.2 carries.

JAYLEN WARREN under 35.5 rushing yards (-110): What I saw in last week’s game steers me towards the under on Jaylen Warren’s props. He fumbled twice in the 4th quarter with Pittsburgh being able to recover one. We know Buffalo saw that and will be looking to punch and strip the ball out of Warren’s hands. It’s snowy and the ball will be wet. I think this will be a tough spot for Warren especially if he loses a fumble at some point. He’s also seen over 10 carries just once in his past six game while his backfield partner has averaged 19 carries in that same stretch.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

If you all know me by now, I am as down on this Eagles team as any other Philadelphia team in my 40+ years on this planet. Losing 5 of 6 down the stretch, often in back-breaking fashion, made all us Philly fans numb from head to toe. But it is true that the NFL Playoffs are a new season. The Cowboys proved that yesterday.

The key is on defense as it has to improve. And the Eagles have Darius Slay returning to the lineup while reportedly moving Avonte Maddox to safety. That will help cover the losses of Sydney Brown and Ried Blankenship. But the absolute key will be the front seven. They need to tighten up their run defense and make Baker Mayfield one-dimensional.

Remember, though this was early in the season, the Eagles outgained the Bucs 472 to 174. Even as ugly as this team looked for the last month, they have the talent and playmakers, even without A.J Brown, to dominate the Bucs. Offensively, the biggest factor will be how the Eagles handle Todd Bowles’ blitzing. If they can do that effectively, they’ll be able to move the ball and create positive plays in both the passing and running game.

While I’m not confident the switch can be flipped this easily, I do see the possibility of this team getting right and rallying around veterans like Jason Kelce and Brandon Graham now that the noise is not in the locker room. For one night, I see that happening. Or they’ll be the same uninspiring team we saw in December and lose by 20. Should be fun!

GAME PROPS:

DE’ANDRE SWIFT over 13.5 Carries –

CADE OTTON over 13.5 yards longest reception –

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Props – Wildcard Weekend (Saturday January 13th)

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to the best weekend in football! It’s the NFL’s Wildcard Weekend where they stretch six games of action over three days to keep our viewing interest on high. And this year, we have so many exciting matchups with 4 of the games landing with a spread of five points or less. The storylines are deep, as you probably already know, with several star players playing their former teams. It’s going to be must watch football for sure!

I finished off the regular season with a 5-0 record in Week 18. And that caps off a 9-1 stretch over the past two weeks. Final record on the season is 49-29, as shown below. Not to toot any horns or blow any whistles, but where else are you going to find a 63% win rate on individual NFL game bets? As you see on the DFS side, and now on the betting side, we put in the work so we can win together. If you bet $100 on each of the games I posted this year, you would be $1710 (+17.1 units). And that’s coming off a 19-11 College Football Bowl Season too! Combined, that would be up $2400 (24 units).

Ok, enough with the WinDaily promotions. Let’s keep the momentum rolling. Each year the playoffs bring a new challenge. Can we get to a perfect playoff prognostication? While that’s the ultimate goal, the real work is winning more than we lose. So let’s set the goal at 8 wins (in 13 games) and see where we land. With that said, my game bets for Saturday’s two games, along with additional props, are below. Let’s go WinDaily Fam!

2023 SEASON RECORD: 49-29 (last week 5-0)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD SATURDAY

CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 at HOUSTON TEXANS

This is a typical betting situation where I would absolutely hammer the Texans. Home dog in the playoffs that is being undervalued by the public. But the issue I have with the Texans is twofold. First, it’s a combination of a rookie QB and rookie HC playing in their first playoff game. Brock Purdy won 2 playoff games as a rookie QB last year. But he was the first rookie QB to win a playoff game since Russell Wilson back in 2012 (Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 but that was the RGIII injury game). In all, rookie QB’s are 10-14 in the playoffs.

But speaking of the other side, Joe Flacco is one of the rookies to win a playoff game. In fact he won two before bowing out in the Conference Championship game back in 2008. But the second reason I’m concerned about the Texans is the battle in the trenches. The Browns have the best rated pass rush in football according to ProFootball Focus. The Texans are 19th in pass blocking. Looking even further, the Texans weakness on D is their pass defense which is 23rd according to DVOA. And while the Browns show up as the 27th ranked pass O, they are actually in the top 10 since Flacco took over.

And then there’s this feeling that we’re just on a collision course to see a Browns vs Ravens matchup in the Divisional Round. The stories are too good to be true, with Flacco returning to his first team and the Browns returning to the place where former owner Art Modell up and moved them to. This is one of the toughest games to pick, but I’m taking the Jersey Joe magic to pull off a late victory in Houston.

GAME PROPS:

DEVIN SINGLETARY under 68.5 yards rushing (-110) – The Texans RB has gone over this number just twice in his last 7 games. Cleveland has the 4th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Singletary does get most of the carries but Houston will need to succeed in the passing game today to keep up with the Browns.

JOE FLACCO over 250 passing yards + 2 passing TD’s (+140) – Flacco has thrown over 300 yards in four of his five starts. I’m nervous that Houston will play a deep zone and not allow the big throws. His base prop is 275 yards which is attractive but I’ll take it one notch down and bank on him to go over a soft number at 250 yards instead combined with 2 passing TD’s.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +4.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The story in this game is the weather. If all things hold true, this will be the coldest playoff game ever. Temperature at game time is supposed to be under 0 degrees F. And that would mark only the 4th game on record with a negative temp.

And while you’ll read the stories of a warm team going to this frozen environment, it’s not like the Chiefs are used to it either. For me, this bet is about what we’ve seen all year with Kansas City. They don’t run away from anyone, and they’ve stumbled their way into the playoffs losing games to the Broncos, Raiders, Packers and Bills. And in each of those losses, each team went over 118 yards rushing. And Miami owns the 3rd best rush offense in the league according to DVOA. I have confidence HC Mike McDaniels knows that and will find a way to mix in creative runs with all three of his RB’s; Raheem Mostert, DeVon Achane, and Jeff Wilson.

On defense, the Dolphins will need to find creative ways to create pressure as they’re without two of their best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. But they hired Vic Fangio for a reason. And he’s seen a lot of KC in the past few years based on his roles in Denver and Philly.

Add to that the weather should keep this game tight. And when we predict a low scoring affair, that’s even more reason to take the points.

GAME PROPS:

TRAVIS KELCE over 5.5 receptions (-120) – Kelce has not performed up to his standards this season. But he always performs when it’s playoff time. In 18 career playoff games he has 133 catches and 16 TD’s. That’s an average of 7.4 catches per game. And he’s had at least 6 catches in 13 of this 18 career playoff games. Add to that, the Dolphins are ranked 26th against TE’s this year (Dawson Knox caught a TD and Dalton Kincaid had 7 receptions for 84 yards last week against MIA). Even with the predicted cold weather, this is a solid prop to bet tonight.

DE’VON ACHANE RUSHING ATTEMPTS over 10 (+120): If the Dolphins are to go down swinging, then they need to get their most dynamic RB the ball more than 10 times.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Wild Card Weekend Breakdown

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

The 2023-24 season has finally come to a close and the cream is beginning to rise to the top as we enter the postseason. All six games of the Wild Card games from Saturday to Monday will be served up on a silver platter for DFS, and it’s not as cut and dry as the regular season. Everyone is priced up, and there’s very little value left, so we’ll need to choose our studs with extra consideration. We have some decent totals, a couple of possible duds due to the forecast, and a potential fireworks display in the Motor City.
As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Saturday Slate 1/13/24

Browns @ Texans (+2.5) (U/O 44)

Cleveland will be well rested after a Week 18 bye as the favorite over the Texans in Houston to kick off the postseason—the age-less veteran against the new kid on the block. Joe Flacco has been immortal, defying Father Time since his signing off the couch, throwing for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns in three of his last four games. On the opposite side of the field, CJ Stroud has undoubtedly won the Offensive Rookie of the Year hands down, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 23 touchdowns in his NFL debut season.

Using either QB would be a solid choice, as well as their complimentary weapons for DFS. Flacco has kept it simple since signing with the Browns in Week 12, getting the ball into the hands of his best playmakers David Njoku and Amari Cooper. The trio will face a defense that has been torched in its secondary over the year, ranking 24th in the league. Meanwhile, for Houston, it’s been the Nico Collins show. The second-year wideout out of Michigan went bananas in Week 18, catching all nine of his targets for 195 yards and a touchdown. Although he may see plenty of Denzel Ward coverage, the matchup will be tougher even though Collins is Stroud’s go-to guy.

All of the above should see plenty of ownership, so if you’re looking to pivot from the chalk use Elijah Moore, Xavier Hutchinson at receiver, or Dalton Schultz at tight end. Just a few alternative options for both offenses that see plenty of snaps have been targeted over the season and should separate you from the field. Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Devin Singletary will be the feature backs in this game and will provide some salary relief too. I prefer either on the Cleveland side, as they’re priced well below $6K on DraftKings, and can deliver a nice ROI in the Browns’ revitalized offense.

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-3.5) (O/U 44)

Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since his trade back in 2022, and there will be a chill in the air Saturday night. Temperatures are expected to be in single digits, which will make catching a football very difficult. Tyreek is matchup and weatherproof in my book, but can Tua get him the football? I’d have no issue not paying up to his high salary in this case. Hill played for Kansas City for six seasons before being traded to Miami, so we can rest assured Coach Andy Reid has reviewed all the footage and formulated a game plan to defend him.

Kansas City’s offense has looked DOA over the season and has become heavily reliant on running back Isaiah Pacheco and rookie wideout Rashee Rice. The New Jersey native Pacheco has averaged well over 20 FPTS per game in his last four contests, with a total of five touchdowns in them. Rice has been a must-start as well, since Week 12 he has become the focal point in the passing game for Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce has been an after-thought, as Rice has averaged eight receptions and 86 yards in his last six games, scoring three times.

With the weather forecast and history of both offenses, I see this becoming a very run-heavy game. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are trending towards playing Saturday, but Tua has looked like a deer in headlights lately. Miami will lean heavily on Mostert and Achane this week, and Pacheco for Kansas City. Miami’s defense is also pretty banged up without Bradley Chubb and now Xavien Howard, so Rice is looking even better.

Tua “Turnthaballova” has given the ball back to the opposing defense four times in his last two games, so we love the Chiefs DST. Pat Mahomes is not an innocent man either, racking up 14 total picks on the year, using Miami for defense makes a lot of sense as well. Both are on the cheaper side for Multi-Game contests in DFS.

Honorable Mention: Justin Watson

Sunday Slate 1/14/24

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 35.5)

Another bitterly cold game, this time it’s up in Orchard Park, New York. The AFC East champion Bills will host it, and the momentum should keep moving in the right direction against the TJ Watt-less Steelers’ defense. Unless his teammates can pick up the slack, I don’t see this game even close for Pittsburgh.

Josh Allen is the top QB on the slate, rightfully so. He makes a great GPP option due to his high price tag, as the field will aim to pay down at quarterback for other pay-up slots. However, I did spot some great value at receiver for Buffalo with Khalil Shakir. Only $3,400 on DraftKings with an even larger role on the horizon as Gabe Davis suffered a knee injury last week putting him in jeopardy of sitting out. Shakir caught for over 100 yards in Davis‘ absence Sunday night against Miami.

The Steelers should continue to enforce their run game behind the once again bell cow Najee Harris. Harris carried the rock 26 and 27 times in his last two games, scoring 27 DK Points in each one. He’s still priced in the mid $5k range on DraftKings and mid $6k on FanDuel. It’s a bargain for the amount of volume he is seeing regardless of the game script, as Pittsburgh continues to play “hide the quarterback” with Mason Rudolph.

Update: Gabe Davis is Out; Game is postponed to Monday 4:30PM EST

Packers @ Cowboys (-7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Head Coach Mike McCarthy will host his former team in the Wild Card round Sunday afternoon, in what outlies to be a rodeo in Dallas with the red-hot Cowboys. Owner Jerry Jones has built his team specifically to beat the Niners this season and has all the makings of that possibly coming true. But first, they’ll have to go through Matt LaFleur’s Packers, whose young talent is led by first-year quarterback Jordan Love.

The Cowboys should pulverize the Pack, as Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have put on an award-winning performance late in the year, recapturing the NFC East Division. Dak has solidified Lamb as the number-one receiver in the game this season, connecting on 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 14 total touchdowns. But let’s not focus all our attention on that duo, as running back Tony Pollard has an excellent matchup. The Packers surrender an average of 128 yards per game on the ground, giving DFS managers another solid piece in Dallas.

Green Bay has overachieved all season, especially with Jordan Love. But going up against this petrifying Dallas defense, he’ll be a risky move. His weapons have been a revolving door due to injuries, although his favorite Jayden Reed is back at 100 percent, just go back to last week’s show he put on (4 REC/112 YDS). Reed is priced right as the clear-cut go-to guy in green and gold. Running back Aaron Jones will also be a great option especially if AJ Dillon misses another consecutive game. Jones has averaged close to 20 FPTS and over 20 carries in each of his last three games as the top option at running back.

Rams @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 51.5)

Matt Stafford returns to the Lion’s Den in Detroit in a Wild Card game destined to see points on the scoreboard. Jared Goff will face his former coach Sean McVay, who shipped him off to Detroit two years ago. Both defenses have been slaughtered in their secondaries this year, so expect a massive amount of ownership from the field in this matchup.

Stafford has leaned heavily on receivers Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua all year, but running back Kyren Williams has been the lockstock piece of the offense for LA. All four are in play, but let’s not forget Demarcus Robinson becoming another reliable weapon for Stafford, scoring double-digit fantasy points in five straight games, catching touchdowns in four of them. Robinson is arguably mispriced on the slate at $3,600 on DraftKings/$6,300 on FanDuel.

Head Coach Dan Campbell may have been too aggressive in Week 18 playing all of his starters, a move that could cost tight end Sam La Porta to miss the game. La Porta has been a solid contributor to the offense, setting records for touchdowns and yardage for tight ends in their rookie seasons. But with having an outside shot to play Sunday, there will be targets up for grabs from Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown will see some heavier volume, but perhaps the targets can trickle down to running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Receivers Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams could also pick up the slack for La Porta most likely being on the sidelines on Sunday.

Honorable Mention: Brock Wright (If La Porta is out)

Monday Night Showdown 1/9/23

Eagles @ Bucs (+3) (O/U 44)

The finale will leave us in South Florida on Monday night, where the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Bucs will host a battered Philadelphia Eagles team that barely made it through into the playoffs. Baker Mayfield has been reborn in Tampa, as he posted better numbers than his predecessor Tom Brady from last season, utilizing Tampa’s high-octane passing offense. The Eagles have flamed out after a 10-1 start, finishing the season at 11-6. Not only have the injuries piled up for Philadelphia going into the postseason but so has the questionable play calling with losses to inferior teams in Arizona and New York.

The Eagles have been helpless in its secondary without the likes of Pro Bowlers Darius Slay and blown coverages, but Slay is trending in the right direction after a full practice on Thursday. Nonetheless, the Eagles will still have their hands full trying to contain Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’re ranked at the bottom of the league at 32nd in pass coverage, allowing quarterbacks like veteran Tyrod Taylor to look 10 years younger on the field in two meetings this season. Running back Rachaad White just missed 1,000 yards for the year with 990, but his action in the passing game (64 REC) makes him viable in a tough matchup against the Eagles front. White is a solid option for GPPs.

Jalen Hurts mentioned to reporters Thursday that he hasn’t thrown a football since fracturing his middle finger on his throwing hand against the Giants last weekend. I smell a rat…why go public with such a negative piece of info? This could be psychological warfare, as Hurts as tough as he is will manage through his injury and could put up some decent stats. He should see very little ownership on Monday Night, and anything is possible when he is on the field. The Bucs are just as bad in their secondary with a DVOA of 24th in the league, so with DeVonta Smith already announcing he will play, let’s hope AJ Brown can also make a run at starting. The Eagles organization has been known to have very little patience when it comes to its coaching staff (Chip Kelly, Andy Reid, and Doug Pederson all fired), current head coach Nick Siriani’s job may be at risk with a first-round exit, so expect the team to rally behind their coach.

Update: AJ Brown is Out

Thanks for reading my 2024 Wild Card Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFL DFS

#1 ATLANTA FALCONS over 9.5 wins (-140 DK) and win NFC South (-130 DK)

#2 CINCINNATI BENGALS over 10.5 wins (-120 DK) and win AFC SOUTH (+145)

#3 TAMPA BAY BUCS under 7.5 wins (+120 DK)

#4 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over 7.5 wins (-140 DK)

#5 PITTSBURGH STEELERS under 8.5 wins (-145 DK)

#6 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over 8.5 wins (-110 DK)

#7: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TO WIN THE NFC EAST (-125 DK)

#8: LA CHARGERS over 8.5 wins (-125 DK)

The QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($10.6K DK, $15K FD)

Brock Purdy ($10K DK, $14.5K FD)

The RBs:

Christian McCaffrey ($12K DK, $17.5K FD)

Isaiah Pacheco ($8K DK, $12.5K FD)

The Backup Backs:

The WRs:

Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8K DK, $10.5K FD)

Deebo Samuel ($9.2K DK, $11.5K FD)

Jauan Jennings ($4K DK, $7K FD)

Rashee Rice ($7.6K DK, $11K FD)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3K DK, $7.5K FD)

The TEs

Travis Kelce ($10.2K DK, $13K FD)

George Kittle ($6.4K DK, $10K FD)

The D/ST and Kickers

Favorite Plays

Drago’s Best Bets:

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 6-6 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – SUPER BOWL LVIII

SUN 6:00 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

GAME TOTAL: OVER 47

GAME PROPS:

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-5 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

SUN 3:00 PM – BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

GAME PROPS:

SUN 6:30 PM – DETROIT LIONS +7.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Sunday Slate 1/28/24

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5) (U/O 44.5)

Lions @ Niners (-7.5) (U/O 51)

SATURDAY 1/20/24 UPDATE: Player Props added to SF game and DET/TB game posted

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-5 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – DIVISIONAL ROUND SATURDAY

SAT 4:30 PM – HOUSTON TEXANS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

GAME PROPS:

SAT 8:15 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -9.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

SUN 3:00 PM – DETROIT LIONS -6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

SUN 6:00 PM – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 at BUFFALO BILLS

Saturday Slate 1/20/24

Texans @ Ravens (-9.5) (U/O 43.5)

Packers @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 50.5)

Sunday Slate 1/21/24

Bucs @ Lions (-6.5) (O/U 48.5)

Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (O/U 45)

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-2 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD MONDAY

BUFFALO BILLS -10 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

GAME PROPS:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

GAME PROPS:

2023 SEASON RECORD: 49-29 (last week 5-0)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD SATURDAY

CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 at HOUSTON TEXANS

GAME PROPS:

MIAMI DOLPHINS +4.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

GAME PROPS:

Saturday Slate 1/13/24

Browns @ Texans (+2.5) (U/O 44)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-3.5) (O/U 44)

Sunday Slate 1/14/24

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 35.5)

Packers @ Cowboys (-7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Rams @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 51.5)

Monday Night Showdown 1/9/23

Eagles @ Bucs (+3) (O/U 44)

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