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NFL Game Bets – SUPER BOWL LVIII

This is it! The final game of the 2023 NFL Season. One in which we have two giants of the league facing each other for the 2nd time in 4 years. Will the 49ers be able to contain Mahomes and Kelce? Will Brock Purdy become a Super Bowl winning QB? Or will Andy Reid and the Chiefs cement their 3rd Super Bowl and become the latest team to be called a dynasty?

For us personally, we need this win to come out in the positive for the playoffs. After a stellar regular season, my game bets for the playoffs are a lukewarm 6-6. But the props were hot in the Conference Championship Round as I went 2-0 in that department.

So it’s time to dive into the Big Game. One in which our own Jason Mezrahi is currently deployed to. While he’s digging through Media Row and trying to ensure he has a pulse by Sunday, I’m here to give you my early leans on Super Bowl LVIII. Enjoy and let’s close out the greatest team sport with putting money in our wallets.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 6-6 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – SUPER BOWL LVIII

SUN 6:00 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Just four short years ago, these two teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV. I was in the middle of a solid streak of Super Bowl wins and decided to bet San Fran who closed as a small favorite. And after 3 quarters, I felt really good about my decision to back Jimmy G and the boys. And the 4th quarter opened with a Patrick Mahomes interception even boosting my faith in the 49ers by twofold. But then some poor offensive execution and an absolute blunder on a Mahomes long ball prayer to Tyreek Hill changed everything. The Chiefs scored 21 points in the last 6 minutes and 30 seconds which led to Andy Reid’s first Super Bowl victory as a head coach and the start of a new dynasty in the AFC.

That game still stings me, and I imagine 49ers fans feel even worse. For 54 minutes of a 60-minute games, the 49ers were in full control. But they fizzled and fell flat on their face which ultimately led to them attempting to bring in a new QB (traded up to #3 in the 2021 draft for Trey Lance) and bring a new aspect to an offense that was stifled late. While the Lance project failed, they found the ultimate gem in QB Brock Purdy. And now they’ve hitched their hopes and dreams to a Round 7 QB. Sound familiar New England fans?

So this Super Bowl, while similar in faces, will have a different approach and feel to it then that of Super Bowl LIV. And to me, this San Francisco team is a better version of the one they put on the field for SB LIV. They’re offense is more dynamic as San Fran ended the regular season with the top rated offense per DVOA+, finishing 1st in passing and 2nd in rushing. On defense, they’re an aggressive unit that effectively pressures the QB. This led to them ranking 4th in defensive DVOA+ and 7th in sacks. With all the focus on Baltimore, the 49ers are the best overall team in the league.

But obviously that doesn’t put any fear in the Chiefs. They just brushed off the two best teams in the AFC by winning on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore. They never blink when faced with pressure or adversity. Instead, they thrive in that environment. And we all know Mahomes is the most dangerous as an underdog posting a 10-1 record ATS in such games.

The other X factor is DC Steve Spagnolo. He’s been brilliant in the playoffs by creating gameplans that have shut down the league MVP and runner up. Surely he’ll craft up something to neutralize Brock Purdy and force him into bad decisions.

However, I’m reading the wave of public betting and experts picks that are all leaning one way. Almost 80% of the bets and 78% of the money is on the Chiefs. Yet, the spread has moved towards the 49ers by 0.5 points (opened at SF -1.5 and is currently SF -2). Looking at all the main media outlets, you see a heavy balance of Chiefs backers. On ESPN.com, 49 of the 64 experts pick the Chiefs including Bill Barnwell. Barstool Sports president Dave Portnoy has placed a $500K bet on Kansas City. The list is endless and I challenge you to find someone picking the 49ers.

In the end, as much as I fear what Purdy will do when pressured, I think SF will be able to pick up big chunks in their running game. Unlike Baltimore, who just abandoned the rush, the 49ers will continue to pound the rock with their best player, and it will keep Spagnolo guessing and his defense in passive mode. This will open up play action and room for Deebo and Kittle to make big plays in the passing game.

On defense, the one area that gives Mahomes trouble is a defensive line that can win their matchups. Remember their one Super Bowl loss was due to the relentless pressure from Tampa’s D-Line. The 49ers D-line can win those battles with Bosa, Young and Hargrave as top 10 players at their respective positions. I see the 49ers defense making a critical play late in the game that will lead towards them bringing home the Lombardi.

All the trends and 80% of the people are seeing red. Instead I’m seeing burgundy and hope that will turn into a wave of green.

GAME TOTAL: OVER 47

Everyone loves a good shootout. We had one last year with Philly and KC as well. I see a similar script in this one and like the over the total. While KC’s defense has been brilliant, the 49ers are 2nd in points per game at 28.8. They’ve scored 27 or more in 13 of their 19 games. And the Chiefs offense has found a rhythm of late as they are averaging 23.7 per game in the playoffs. Even with hitting their averages, I see this game falling in the low 50’s.

Fun fact, the over is 28-28 all time in Super Bowl history.

GAME PROPS:

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY over 4.5 rec (-130): Just set it and forget it. The Chiefs aggressive man-to-man defense allows for mismatches in the short passing game. CMac is going to the be the next in line of running backs to have a great receiving game against KC.

PATRICK MAHOMES over 4.5 rushing attempts (-110): Mahomes has 12 rushing attempts in the past 2 playoff games. He’s going to feel the pressure of the 49ers defensive front and look to use his legs to gain yards. I looked at “running” QB’s that have played the 49ers this year and this was their rushing line:

  • Lamar Jackson 7 for 45 yards
  • Jalen Hurts 7 for 20 yards
  • Kyler Murray 6 for 49 yards

This shows there is room to run against SF if Mahomes wants to take it. And based off the last two games, where he had 6 rushes in each game, and the ability of other running QB’s to find room to run, this is a good number to bet.

ISAIAH PACHECO over 16.5 receiving yards (-110): Let’s just stick with the RB’s on Sunday. Both pass defenses are solid but tend to allow yards out of the backfield. The 49ers allowed 90 receptions and 625 yards receiving to RB’s. That was 7th most (receptions) and 8th most (yards) in the NFL. Pacheco went over this number in 2 of the 3 playoff games so far and 4 of his last 6 overall.

GEORGE KITTLE longest reception over 21.5 receiving yards (-110): Kittle has gone over this number in both playoff games with catches of 28 and 32 yards respectively. Going back further, He’s gone over this number in 7 of his last 8 games. And he exceeded it in 12 of his 18 games total this year. He beats this number 67% of the time and with odds of -110 we’re getting good EV (Note: odds of -110 means you have expected winning of 52.4% but Kittle has gone over this in 67% of his games).

COIN TOSS – TAILS (-110); Because it never fails. And is 30-27 all time against heads in Super Bowl’s.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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