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NFL DFS

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 3

Joe DiCarlo 8 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Week Two has officially come to a close and left us with a lot to chew fat about in Week Three. Upsets and injuries over this past weekend, but plenty of great DFS plays. We only have 12 games this weekend, due to two of them airing on Monday night, so let’s get the breakdown started!
As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 9/22/24

Giants @ Browns (-6) (U/O 38.5)

The 0-2 Giants open up the slate as six-point dogs on the road against a very stingy Cleveland defense. Daniel Jones showed us some signs of having a pulse left in the league, throwing for two touchdowns against Washington. But Malik Nabers was the real star of the game, catching nine of 12 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown, a performance that cements him as the Giant’s number-one weapon. After seeing last week’s stellar performance by the Giants’ first-round pick, I’m fine using him for Cash games,

Cleveland finally earned their place in the win column on Sunday against the Jaguars. It wasn’t pretty for fantasy, but Deshaun Watson and Jerry Jeudy did the job. We are going to want very little exposure to this game, as both teams seem to have struggled to move the football and play some pretty solid defense (NYG held WSH to 0 touchdowns, Cleveland held Jacksonville to 13 points). Both defenses will be in play for this one. We also like both teams’ running backs, Devin Singletary for his consistency on the field (72% snap share) and Jerome Ford’s ability to take one to the house on any given touch.

Cash: Malik Nabers

GPP: Jerome Ford, Devin Singletary, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Jerry Jeudy, Giants DST, Cleveland DST

Broncos @ Bucs (-6.5) (O/U 40)

The Broncos will visit sunny Tampa, Florida this Sunday, but it won’t be all palm trees and Pina Coladas for Bo Nix. Denver has suffered through tremendous growing pains in their first two games, perhaps given a softer matchup could provide them a shot in the arm. The Bucs have been generous to opposing quarterbacks and running backs, ranking 30th in DVOA for both positions over the past two games. Bo Nix has not been shy either, although the rookie mistakes are still going to happen (4 INTs in two starts), he’s attempted 77 passes and rushing in a touchdown. Keep Nix and the Broncos backfield in tournaments only. Tampa’s defense is a little scary, but because of Denver’s season so far, use them as a salary saver this week.

The Bucs are rolling at 2-0 and looking to make it three wins at home but may need to use more of their running game in this matchup. The Broncos have allowed a scarce amount of yards through the air (4th with only 268 in two games) while allowing over 143 yards per game on foot. Rachaad White injured his groin during last week’s game, so we have to monitor that. Otherwise, it will be the rookie Bucky Irving to the rescue, who has already seen 16 attempts this season. All should be used in tournaments, including the Bucs’ air attack, due to Denver’s defense in a possible slow-paced game.

Cash: Tampa DST

GPP: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving (if White is out) Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Chargers @ Steelers (-2) (O/U 35.5)

The new and improved LA Chargers roll into Pittsburgh undefeated early in the season to face off against the also 2-0 Steelers. Both teams have been led by their defenses, which are ranked first and second in the league in points allowed, hence the low total of 35 given by Vegas. Both offenses enjoy running the football as well, to keep their opponents off the field, each totaling 77 rushing attempts so far in just two games.

So let’s take a look into this gross game for fantasy appeal. If we want a piece of LA’s offense, it’s all JK Dobbins. He silenced all the doubters calling his Week One game a fluke with a solid 7.7 YPC for 131 yards and a touchdown. But his stock has risen with his price going up for DFS ($6,400 on DraftKings), which forces us to play him in more tournaments than Cash. Second-year receiver Quentin Johnson for the Chargers has emerged as the alpha receiver, by becoming a red zone threat and catching two touchdowns last week. He’s still underpriced, as is his fellow receivers, but Johnson is who to target for a GPP play.

Mike Tomlin is prepping Justin Fields for his third start this weekend, and why not? They are winning. It may not be the prettiest box score for Fields as of late, but we all know what his ceiling is. He is still priced way under $6K on DraftKings, but due to the matchup, we should keep him in tournaments, along with his skilled players. Fields has capped the production of running back Jaylen Warren with his rushing ability, but Najee Harris is still a factor (37 carries in two games). George Pickens (27.5% target share) and Pat Freiermuth (20% target share) remain as Pittsbugh’s top pass-catchers.

Cash: Pittsburgh DST, Chargers DST

GPP: JK Dobbins, Quentin Johnson, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren

Update: Justin Herbert is a GTD, he will play Josh Palmer is OUT

Packers @ Titans (-2.5) (O/U 36.5)

Here we have another game that will move at a snail’s pace with a total in the mid-thirties. Malik Willis is back in Tennessee for the first time since being traded to the Packers, but let’s not get too excited. The Titans have been a disaster so far with Willis’ replacement Will Levis, and going up against a respectable Packers defense this weekend could spell out another long day. I don’t expect too much exposure to this game for DFS but let’s see what comes to mind.

Once again, another week without Jordan Love pits a huge crutch on the Packers’ receiving room. Any exposure to Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, or Christian Watson will be larger GPP options. Josh Jacobs is the only safe Packer this weekend, especially with Marshon Lloyd landing on IR this week. Malik Willis himself is also a GPP move, because of his rushing ability (7.5 YPC in Week 2).

Will Levis is in dire straits, with 3 interceptions to only two touchdown passes and a rating of 31.1. But Calvin Ridley did end up benefitting last week, cashing in for a touchdown and 24 fantasy points. But the engine that runs the Titans is Tony Pollard, who continued in Week Two as the bell-cow in the backfield. He has seen the majority of snaps over Tyjae Spears (61%), an 18% target share (8 catches in two games), and averaging 16.5 carries per game.

DeAndre Hopkins has been MIA and should see plenty of Jaire Alexander this Sunday. He’s very well-priced in the mid-$5K range on Draftkings. He’s an extreme punt at receiver, especially after only recording two catches so far this year. Let’s start with both defenses too.

Cash: Josh Jacobs, Packers DST, Titans DST, Tony Pollard

GPP: Malik Willis, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins

Update: Jordan Love practicing, and could play this week,

Jordan Love is OUT

Eagles @ Saints (-2.5) (U/O 49.5)

Philadelphia will travel to The Big Easy on Sunday and will be out for redemption after a humiliating loss to the Falcons at home on Monday night. The Saints will enter the game refreshed, waking up out of their beds one week removed from stomping the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. We’ve got a nice total near 50 with a tight spread, so we’ll be interested in DFS.

I can’t believe we are writing about Derek Carr and the Saints, but yes in fact he and his team are the real deal… for now. Carr, Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed have combined for over 150 fantasy points in two games. These types of numbers will not last forever, so get in now before the wheels fall off in New Orleans. Chris Olave still has not been utilized yet in this offense, but it’s only a matter of time. Taysom Hill also left with an injury during the Cowboys game. That is a situation we’ll need to keep a close eye on and would increase the role of Juwan Johnson. Philadelphia was shredded on the ground and through the air Monday night by Atlanta, New Orleans should have no problem moving the ball at home against a disheveled Vic Fangio defense.

The City of Brotherly Love will need to bring their A game for this matchup, as well as make the right play-calling decisions. AJ Brown is questionable going into the weekend after missing Monday’s game, so if he’s out again Devonta Smith will be a lock at wide receiver. In the absence of Brown, Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts also stepped up their games, combining for 35 rushing attempts, Hurts rushing for one touchdown and throwing for one too. All three are safe for cash, especially Devonta if AJ can’t suit up.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Devonta Smith ( if AJ Brown is out)

GPP: Derek Carr, Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson

Update: AJ Brown is OUT, Taysom Hill is OUT

Texans @ Vikings (+2.5) (O/U 45.5)

The Texans roll into Minnesota with a full head of steam to take on a Vikings squad fresh off a victory against the Forty Niners. Both teams are 2-0, but only one can stay undefeated on Sunday. This game has great potential for fantasy, taking place indoors with two quarterbacks who are not gun-shy when you t comes to throwing the football.

Sam Darnold looks very comfortable running Kevin O’Connell’s offense in Minnesota. He’s been top-ten so far in touchdown passes(4-ranked 3rd), completion percentage (76.6%-6th), and QB rating (118.8-5th). Not the greatest matchup for Darnold (Houston total sacks, 13 total QB hits, 3 Interceptions), but hopefully Justin Jefferson can suit up to relieve some of that pressure, along with running back Aaron Jones. Jordan Addison does not look to be a go again this week, which gives a boost to Jalen Nailor’s target share.

Now the Texans, a team that has everything moving in the right direction. C.J. Stroud continues to be a marksman with the football (7.4 air yards/attempt, 80% red zone completion). Nico Collins (14 REC/252 YDS/1 TD) has been the biggest beneficiary of Stroud’s arm, along with Stefon Diggs (2 TDS).

However, the Houston backfield must be monitored since Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce have not practiced this week. Cam Akers slides right into Cash game lineups by default if they don’t make it on the field.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Cam Akers (If Mixon and Pierce are OUT), Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud

GPP: Sam Darnold, Jalen Nailor, Aaron Jones, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz

Update: Joe Mixon is OUT, and Dameon Pierce is OUT

Bears @ Colts (-2) (O/U 42.5)

The 0-2 Bears are off to a rough start, looking for their first win of the year in Indy. The Colts are also winless, and feeling the pressure to get on the right track with a home victory. Both teams are going through growing pains, with minimal NFL quarterback experience. But the upside is in this game for DFS, let’s see what we have to work with.

Caleb Williams continues to struggle to find chemistry with his receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen (who missed Week 2 with an injury). The Colts will get safety Julian Blackmon back this week but have placed DT DeForest Buckner on IR. This could be the game where we finally see D’Andre Swift’s breakout for 2024. The Colts have been destroyed in the trenches, which has allowed 5.1 YPC and over 230 yards rushing per game. Swift will be a great under-the-radar play this week for DFS.

On the other hand, Chicago was obliterated by Nico Collins in their last game, allowing over 120 yards and a touchdown. If Anthony Richardson can get into a groove with his receivers, especially their one Michael Pittman Jr., who has been MIA during the Alec Pierce breakout (8 REC/181 YDS/2 TDS). The Colts may well be on their way to their first victory. But with youth comes mistakes, so both defenses are fine options this week.

Update: Keenan Allen is OUT

Cash: D’Andre Swift

GPP: Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen(if healthy), Caleb Williams, Bears DST

Panthers @ Raiders (-5) (O/U 40.5)

The lowly Panthers fly into Vegas to try and make ends meet against a hungry Raiders team fresh off an upset win in Baltimore. Bryce Young has been benched for Week 3, giving veteran Andy Dalton the start and hopefully pumping life into the offense. Vegas was running on all cylinders in Baltimore, from shutting down the Ravens’ run game to Brock Bowers and Davante Adams making plays all over the field. This game is in the bag unless some other Raiders team shows up on Sunday.

Andy Dalton has been around the block a few times in the NFL and should be an upgrade at the position this weekend. For his career, he’s compiled well over 38,000 yards and 250-plus touchdowns, so his teammates better be ready for some targets. Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, Xavier Leggette, and Jonathan Mingo will all be GPP-viable, even Dalton himself due to his very affordable price ($4,800 on DraftKings).

The Raiders and Gardner Minshew aired out the football in their come-from-behind victory against Baltimore but may choose to let the air out on Sunday. Carolina still can not stop the bleeding against opposing running backs, ranking 31st in the league in rushing defense. As much as we like Bowers and Adams, Zamir White is a staple this week at running back. Alexander Mattison has also been a factor, but he does not fit the script of the Raiders controlling the game flow. Vegas’ defense is also in play this week.

Cash: Zamir White, Brock Bowers, Vegas DST

GPP: Davante Adams, Alexander Mattison, Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, Xavier Leggette

Dolphins @ Seahawks (-5) (O/U 41)

Miami took a huge blow to their offense as they saw Tua Tagovailoa suffer his fourth concussion last Thursday night to the Bills, landing him on IR. The Seahawks barely got by the Patriots in Week Two, securing their undefeated record of 2-0. The skepticism of the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson under center has us not having much faith in Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle putting up big numbers, and the Seahawks easily shutting them down for a third win.

De’Von Achane stole the show for the Dolphins and was the only bright spot putting up a stat line of 96 RuYDS/7 REC/65 RECYDS/1 TD, even during the first half before Tua went down. His role will be amplified down the stretch until Tua gets back, and the matchup is not too shabby. Seattle is 22nd in DVOA to opposing running backs, a defense that was just exploited by Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson a week ago (177 TOT RuYDS). Veteran Raheem Mostert may be back after missing Week Two, so we will need to monitor the news. Tyreek Hill is still unfadeable, as we all know the damage he is capable of. But he should be played in tournaments only.

Seattle had great success in the passing game, with Kenneth Walker sitting out in Week Two. They played a lot of three-wide receiver sets, with DK Metcalf (10 REC/129 YDS/1 TD) and Jaxson Smith-Njigba (12 REC/117 YDS) torching the Patriots secondary last weekend. It appears Walker will be back this weekend, and because of Zach Charbonnet’s ineffectiveness expect Walker to reclaim his starting role. If the Dolphins do lay down and roll over in Seattle, Walker should carve up the clock and rack up for DFS to a Miami rushing defense that allowed Buffalo’s James Cook three rushing touchdowns in Week Two’s primetime matchup. Seattle’s defense is in full effect too.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Kenneth Walker, Seattle DST

GPP: DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Tyreek Hill

Update: Raheem Mostert is OUT, Kenneth Walker OUT

Niners @ Rams (+7.5) (O/U 43.5)

The Niners took one on the chin last week, losing to Minnesota, and will look to rebound this week against their cross-town conference rivals in LA. The Rams were also embarrassed by Arizona, losing by a landslide 41-10 score last Sunday afternoon, and killing a ton of DFS lineups using Cooper Kupp. Both teams have been chewed up and spit out by the injury bug, but in turn, will provide us with cheap value options for DFS.

First CMC, then Deebo, and now George Kittle…Frisco can not catch a break. Brandon Aiyuk will be the last starter standing in a Niners uniform, so expect a ton of ownership going his way. Backups Jauan Jennings and Chris Conley will see a huge uptick in work at receiver, as well as Eric Saubert at tight end. Jordan Mason is still healthy, fortunately, so we should see a heavy dose of the run game. It will be all hands on deck for the Niners to steal a win on the road against a Rams 22nd in DVOA pass defense/30th in rushing…Love Purdy this week, he is a staple for Cash games.

LA has its own drama with Cooper Kupp set to miss time alongside Puka Nacua. The next men up for Matt Stafford will be Demarcus Robinson and TuTu Atwell. We may also see Tyler Johnson or Jordan Whittington pop off at receiver, the Rams’ receiving core will all be GPP dart throws for DFS. Kyren Williams is the only safe play for LA, who may indeed just run the damn ball more than throwing it due to the lack of talent at receiver. Colby Parkinson may step up for some extra targets at tight end, who I preferably would roster over some of these Rams wideouts. LA’s defense is so bad it could put them in a huge hole, forcing Stafford to play catch-up.

Cash: Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk

GPP: Kyren Williams, Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, Chris Conley, TuTu Atwell, Colby Parkinson, Matt Stafford, Tyler Johnson

Lions @ Cardinals (+2.5) (O/U 52.5)

We’ve made it to the largest total of the slate, and it is certainly enticing for DFS. Jared Goff and the Lions aim to get back in the win column, but he’ll have to get passed Kyler Murray’s hot hand in the desert. Both franchises are stacked on offense, the Lions are ranked second in total yards, passing yardage, and third in rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals rank third in passing touchdowns, second in scoring percentage and total points. Get ready for some fireworks.

Detroit has had success with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery so far this season, but Arizona has been solid in the trenches, allowing only 91 yards per game. They may need to go back to the well of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is coming off a scorching 11-catch, 119-yard game. Jameson Williams and Sam La Porta round out the rest of the pieces for Detroit, La Porta being the odd man out so far this season not being targeted as much.

The Cardinals ran the tables on the Rams last week, as Murray and Harrison Jr. began to show some signs of chemistry connecting on four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. The matchup is mouthwatering facing Detroit’s 31st ranking secondary. It’ll be wheels up for Trey McBride (18 FPTS last week) and James Conner (ninth in rushing yards-172) too, so get your fill of Cardinals in Cash or GPP games. Also consider Michael Wilson as he sees a 68% snap share, and a nice punt at receiver in a high total game.

Cash: Amon-Ra St.Brown, Kyler Murray, James Conner

GPP: Jared Goff, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jameson Williams, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Michael Wilson

Ravens @ Cowboys (+1) (O/U 49)

Last but not least, we get the Boys hosting the Ravens to Cap off the afternoon slate. Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses to inferior opponents, so the emotions will be flying come on Sunday. The defenses for both sides have gotten off to slow starts, as Dallas could not stop the bleeding to New Orleans last week. Gardner Minshew sliced and diced the Ravens up like sushi. Too much to think about, but if we see a weakness in a team’s defense, let’s exploit it in DFS.

Baltimore has spewed production to its opposing receivers, allowing 257 yards per game (32nd in the league), and there are no signs of that going away anytime soon. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson will be factors and relied upon heavily this week. Ferguson could be nursing an injury around his ankle injury sustained in last week’s contest. Brandin Cooks should also eat in this game as Dak’s third option. Solid GPP plays in Dallas.

Lamar needs no introduction, and automatically gets locked in for Cash early on, but who else can we roster? We want pass catchers in Ravens uniforms too (Dallas’ Treyvon Diggs was smoked last week by Rashid Shaheed). Zay Flowers should see plenty of Diggs this weekend, who can be a gazelle in the open field. As for the backs in Baltimore, both are fine this weekend. Henry for short yardage and goal line opportunities and Justice Hill for third down and hurry-up offense scenarios. All solid tournament moves.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott

GPP: Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, Mark Andrews

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3! Remember to check back daily for more content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

8 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Three

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 2 was just very good for us in the betting market. I went 12-4 in several pools, and more importantly won our Win Daily pool on the Sleeper App with an 11-5 mark. The position of fading the market and not buying the hype worked well. On the Win Daily page, I was just 2-2 and that puts us at 4-4 overall. But that’s solid as we’re going to grow the early season malaise into a winning way. So follow and hop on the train when you see fit. As I’m confident we’re on our way to another winning season here in the NFL betting market. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.

NFL BETS WEEK 3 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 4-4)

HOUSTON TEXANS -1 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I highlighted this last year, that I like to fade teams coming off a win versus the 49ers. But 2024 ended up being different as teams coming off a win versus the 49ers were 4-0 SU the following week (49ers had 5 losses but their 5th was in week 18 to Rams).

However, I’m back on the bandwagon of fading teams off a 49ers win and it starts this week with the Vikings. Minnesota has looked good in 2024 by beating the Giants soundly then following that up with a big win against SF. But the jury is still out as they have a mediocre QB in Sam Darnold and a bunch of misfit toys on offense with WR Justin Jefferson the only real threat for defenses. Minnesota will be once again without WR Jordan Addison as he’ll this week with an ankle injury.

The real key is the Vikings pass D which has been bad the past few years. The Texans strong point is their pass O, with CJ Stroud passing to a triumvirate of quality receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On the other side, the Texans are bringing a fierce pass rush and that will help befuddle Darnold and create turnover opportunities.

The Texans didn’t look great on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, but they won. Which is the sign of a good team. They’ll take those lessons learned and apply them into a big road win in Minnesota this weekend.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs CHICAGO BEARS

In a battle of promising young QB’s, I’m going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts today. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Green Bay last week. That was off the heels of a narrow loss to division rivals the Houston Texans. The big reason why they’re sitting at 0-2 instead of 2-0 is turnovers, as Richardson has four interceptions to his name already this season. And each one has been unforced and unfortunate. But the good news for the Colts is their offensive line has played stellar as they are #1 in pass blocking and run blocking this season. So there is room for yards to be had even against a tough Bears D.

On the other side, we have a team in the Bears that are 31st in the league in total offense. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is running for his life as he’s been sacked nine times in the first two games. It’s evident that teams are willing to blitz Williams and force him to flush out of the pocket. I expect the Colts will do the same today and make life hard, once again, on the 2024 #1 pick.

TENNESSEE TITANS -2 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Will Levis experience has not been fun for HC Brian Callahan. Two inexplicable turnovers in the first 2 weeks have cost the Titans dearly as they lost nailbiters to the Jets and Bears. The good news is the defense has been outstanding, holding teams to 206.5 yds/game. That ranks 1st in the league.

We know the issue in Tennessee is the QB play, especially the turnovers. In Green Bay, they have their own QB issues. Former Titan QB Malik Willis looks inline to get another start today. The Packers limited Willis to just 14 pass attempts last week as they chose to try to win a game like the 1960’s teams, with the running game. Green Bay ended up running the ball 53 times last week for a 79/21% run to pass ratio. That type of gameplan won’t work today in Tennessee as the Titans allow just 92.5 yards/game on the ground in 2024.

We need to keep an eye on the Jordan Love situation because if he is able to play this line will shift. And it could impact whether or not I play the Titans.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Close your eyes and say a prayer for me. As I’m betting the Carolina Panthers today when they travel to Vegas to take the field against the Raiders. I’m playing numbers here, as what we’ve seen on the gridiron so far could now have me logically back the Panthers. First, the switch to QB Andy Dalton should boost some life into an inept offense. Dalton has been solid wherever he’s gone and is a serviceable NFL QB. Secondly, the Raiders are traveling back west after one week on the east coast. And that week was productive as they pulled off a shocking upset of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the back-and-forth travel, plus the exuberance of a huge win will play against them today.

The other piece of good news is that these teams are much closer in DVOA than the spread suggests. The Raiders are 25th in defensive DVOA while the Panthers are 24th. Offensively, Carolina ranks 32nd, but Las Vegas isn’t far behind at 28th. In yardage, the Raiders allow 349.5 yds/game (24th) while the Panthers allow 364 yds/game (25th).

Lastly, the books are showing just 8% of the tickets and 7% of the bets coming in on Carolina. Yet, they’ve only moved this line by 0.5 points since it opened. Something seems fishy in Vegas as this shows signs of potential smart money coming in if the line is moved to 6.5 or 7. It’s a cat and mouse game at the windows that I’m sure bettors, and odds makers, are keeping an eye on. But the volume coming in now doesn’t align with line movement. Close my eyes and say a prayer, I’m playing the numbers and zagging against the public with the Carolina Panthers (note it’s worked the first two weeks).

SURVIVOR PICK

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Sports Betting

LIVE Fantasy Football Pre-Game for Sept. 22

StixPicks 8 months ago

written by StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS Expert Stix Picks breaks down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate. He will preview all the Week 3 games, making DFS picks and reviewing some player props and bets.

8 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 2 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And how lucky am I to be able to breakdown the showdown slate of the team I’m most familiar with as the Falcons travel to Philly to take on the Eagles in primetime. In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 3rd season in a row that Kirk Cousins plays in Philadelphia on MNF in Week 2. Simply put, even without AJ Brown, I expect there to be points scored tonight down on Pattison Ave. So let’s dig in and see what areas to exploit and how to win some money in the DFS Showdown market. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Running Back

We’ve all been waiting for over a year for the Falcons to unleash the beast. After drafting RB Bijan Robinson in the top 10 of the 2023 draft, he was criminally underused in Arthur Smith’s system last year. And while he didn’t explode in Week 1 of this year, Bijan did get 23 touches in his first game under the Raheem Morris regime. Even better news was that Robinson received 89% of the snaps as backup RB Tyler Allgier saw just 3 touches and 18% snap count.

The better news is that the Falcons face an Eagles defense that looked similar to last season’s version against the run, POUROUS! In 2023, the Eagles ended up 22nd in rush defense DVOA. But they allowed the 10th lowest yards on the ground. Why the gap in numbers? That was because they were historically bad against the pass and teams ran the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the league against Philly. So, it masked their real inefficiency upfront.

This season, the Eagles invested in the defensive backfield to improve the horrendous pass D. And while that looked better in Week 1, it showed the gaps upfront as Green Bay ran for 163 yards on just 21 carries. PFF ranked the Eagles 28th run defense and they earned the 30th ranked rush defense in DVOA. For those reasons, as well as a new LB corps, I expect the Eagles to struggle against the run early in the season.

Bijan could be in line for a career high number tonight as long as the Falcons commit and stick with the run.

Tier 1: Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: None

Wide Receiver

There are a few concerning signs with the Falcons passing offense coming out of Week 1. The first is the overall health of newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. He looked immobile and was inaccurate in his return from a torn Achilles tendon. The other concern was the offensive line, as it was attacked and exposed by an aggressive Steeler defensive front. The Falcons OL was assigned a pass block grading of 44.3 for that game, which was 2nd worst in the league.

As highlighted in the RB section above, the Eagles invested heavily in their defensive backfield in the offseason. They resigned CB Avonte Maddox and used two early draft picks on highly regarded DB’s Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Birds are also banking on CB Isiah Rogers making an impact, Rogers was suspended for the entire 2023 season for gambling but was ranked as a top 20 defensive back the season prior.

Last week, the Packers were able to get big chunks in the passing game due to some defensive breakdowns. This happened mainly with their inside WR’s, namely Jayden Reed. Darius Slay was solid in coverage grading out as the 19th best DB in Week 1. But Avonte Maddox was attacked and exposed as he ended up 89th in DB ranking according to PFF. I’ll look to get Atlanta’s slot receivers involved tonight and play Drake London much lighter than most due to his matchup with Slay.

Of note, Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets (6) and had 27.3% of the overall targets to pass catchers.

Tier 1: Darnell Mooney

Tier 2: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud

Punts:

Tight End

The Eagles historically stink against TE’s. Green Bay did not expose that in Week 1 as they got just two catches out of their Tight Ends against Philly. That was primarily because of the Eagles new LB Zack Baun who had 15 tackles and ranked in the top 10 in coverage in Week 1. However, the Eagles other LB, Nakobe Dean, ranked 74th out of 75 LB’s overall. So there’s opportunity to be had for Kyle Pitts tonight if the Falcons are able to use motion and get the right matchups. For that reason, I think Pitts is the best receiver to use tonight for Atlanta.

Tier 1: Kyle Pitts

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Running Back

There’s nobody in the league having a harder start to the season than NY Giants General Manager Joe Schoen. While giving QB Daniel Jones the bag looks to be a critical error. His handling of the Saquon Barkley situation could haunt this team for years to come. Barkley debuted in Eagles green in Week 1 and put up a career game, totaling 132 yards and scoring three touchdowns against the Packers. He also saw 80% of the snaps and collected 93% of the touches. Which just signifies he’s the featured back in Philly and has no worries about sharing the ball.

He’ll have a tougher job tonight as Atlanta employs a strong defensive front. While they allowed 137 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1, it was on 41 carries. Because of that, they rated #8 in run defense per PFF and #6 in rushing DVOA. This aligns well to last season as they ended 11th in rush defense DVOA and allowed just 4.0 yds/carry which was 9th best in the NFL.

I still like Saquon tonight as the Eagles O Line is a top 5 unit in football. They ranked 5th best in run blocking in Week 1 and will continue to get better as C Cam Jurgens eases into the role of taking over for legendary Jason Kelce.

Tier 1: Saquon Barkley

Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The big news for tonight is staring WR AJ Brown has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This opens up potential for several Eagles WR’s to be the breakout player in tonight’s showdown. To me, this is the spot you have to win tonight in order to hit big in GPP’s.

If there was one major concern for the Falcons, it was the ability to pressure the QB. Atlanta has just 42 sacks in 2023 which was 22nd in the NFL. By drafting QB Michael Penix in the top 10, they passed on premium edge rush talent. Which forced them to make a move in the trade market. And they did so by making a deal with NE to acquire Matthew Judon. While Judon played well, it didn’t drastically change the issue. Atlanta ranked 31st in pass rush rate in Week 1.

On the other end, is a very good Eagles O Line. As we discussed above, this is top 5 unit in the league. Besides their propensity to open holes for RB’s, they also pass block very well as this unit ranked 2nd best in that category in Week 1.

So this looks like the biggest mismatch on paper. Meaning QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to make good decisions and find the open receiver in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Jahan Dotson didn’t catch a ball in Week 1 but that will change this week. He’s had 9 days between games to further digest the offense. I’m looking for him to have a HUGE night in AJ Brown’s absence. New out of Philly is that rookie WR Johnny Wilson will get snaps tonight as WR3. Wilson is a big bodied receiver from FSU. His biggest flaw is he has big drops in big moments. But he could be a target in shorter fields, especially the endzone, so consider him as a cheap play tonight.

One longshot to also consider is WR Britian Covey. He returns kicks for the Eagles and keeps making the roster as a 5th WR. They like his speed, former track star, and could use him in some WR screen and jet sweep scenarios. Also, Wilson has a questionable tag so if he’s out this moves Covey into serious play.

Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson

Tier 2: Johnny Wilson

Tight End

Dallas Goedert should be used more tonight as the Eagles will need to adjust their gameplan for life without Brown. Atlanta uses a 3-4 defense with two primary coverage LB’s in Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. Elliss graded the best but was ranked just 30th among LB’s in Week 1. Additionally, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was targeted four times in Week 1 and caught each one.

Tier 1: Dallas Goedert

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. I’m passing on Kirk Cousins at the MVP position because of his lack of mobility versus an aggressive Eagles pass rush. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we saw Nico Collins as the best Captain and he was in the top 3 in salary. So I can see a scenario where we go after a top RB, or Hurts, as our CPT. One other option is to take an Eagles WR, instead of Barkley, at CPT as either Smith or Dotson could be the big winner tonight with the Falcons struggling in Week 1 in creating pass rush and thus exposing their DBs in coverage.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley

FDMVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith

FDMVP Tier 3: Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts

DK CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson (salary relief)

DK CPT Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney

DK CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud, Dallas Goedert

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Jalen Hurts
Bijan Robinson
Saquon Barkley
DeVonta Smith
Kyle Pitts
Jahan Dotson
Darnell Mooney
Ray-Ray McCloud

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Kirk Cousins
Drake London
Jake Elliott
Dallas Goedert
Younghoe Koo
Eagles D
Johnny Wilson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Will Shipley
Falcons D
Britian Covey

Best Rules for the slate:

Play at least one stud RB, likely both. I like Bijan to have the best overall game but that doesn’t mean he has to be your CPT if someone of lesser value pops and provides room to roster Barkley and Bijan and Hurts/Smith.
PLAY JAHAN DOTSON. Like last MNF, when Jordan Mason popped for CMAC, we have an opportunity to hit big on someone $4K or less.
Play the Falcons second and third WR’s. Eagles struggled covering the slot and weak side in Week 1.
Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Hurts and think he’ll have a solid game.
Be careful of Drake London because of the potential for Slay to follow him around the field. He only got 3 targets in Week 1.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is 45.5 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Bijan Robinson over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 BET365) / Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 DK)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Two

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 1 was just so-so. We went 2-2 on our four bets. On the bright side, we did nail the Jags as the Dolphins are all hype. But we put faith in Mr. Kohl’s who paid us back with one of the worst games of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. How is Atlanta feeling about that investment in Kirk Cousins now? Looked exactly like what they saw out of Ridder and Heinecke last year. As for Win Daily, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, week 1 was crash and burn as we laid an egg with the Bengals. But my pool allows a buy-back after week 1 so we turn the page and try to get back on the winning track in week 2. I will not fade the Pats this week!

NFL BETS WEEK 2 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 2-2)

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -1.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

The betting market is flooded with New York money this week. And it’s a wonder if they even watched football last week as the Giants ranked up there as the most disappointing team of the week after getting trounced by the Vikings to a tune of 28 to 6. While the Commanders didn’t fare well, allowing 392 yards to the Buccaneers, they at least had a pulse. As of this writing, 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Giants making this a very public play.

Yes, I know the stats revolving around Giants QB Daniel Jones and his propensity to play well against Washington. He is 5-1-1 against the Commanders in his career and has a 10 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Comparably, he is 17-37 against the rest of the NFL. However, Jones was 0-4 against the Cowboys when Dan Quinn, the new Commanders HC, was the DC in Dallas. And in those contests, he averaged just 151 yds/game passing with a 1 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, the Cowboys have a better D than Washington currently employs, but it does show Quinn knows how to attack Jones.

Also, the Commanders big weakness in Week 1 was their pass D as they allowed an 80% completion rate and 4 passing TD’s to Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. As we all know, the Giants offense doesn’t have that type of burst from their passing game. In fact, it’s ranked 30th in DVOA, trailing just the Browns and Panthers. I also like the matchup of Jayden Daniels dual threat attack versus the Giants. According to PFF, the Giants were rated last in rush defense last week as they especially disliked the LB play led by Bobby Okereke (55 snaps and recorded just 2 tackles). This is very notable as the RPO needs to be controlled by the DE’s and LB’s.

I missed on Washington in Week 1 but I’m going back to the well here. And hopefully doing it with an unbiased mind. The public is all over the Gmen. Which is always a reason to zig. But I also think the Giants will not be able to take full advantage of the Commanders weaknesses and they’ll also have challenges of their own to stop a powerful run game from the Commanders.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -8.5 vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was a great story last season as he rallied the troops after the firing of Josh McDaniel. And because of his passionate leadership, he was hired as the permanent head coach in the offseason. So, there was plenty of good vibes around Vegas knowing Pierce was at the head of the spear. But those vibes may have disappeared in just one week as the Raiders HC made several head scratching calls, including a punt late in the game on 4th and short in Chargers territory. Which means the jury is out on Pierce and with every misstep and loss, the trade Davante Adams campaign will just get louder. Making each Raiders game must see TV.

But the real reason for backing the Ravens here is the fact that Baltimore is coming off a Thursday night game. And the Raiders are traveling due east and starting a game at 1pm EST. Speaking of the latter first, the Raiders are 0-7 since the start of the 2022 season on the road against teams east of the Mississippi River. That included a 30-12 loss last year to Chicago, who was starting QB Tyson Bagent. As for the Ravens playing on Thursday, they were able to endure 3 extra days of rest and are 5-0 since 2018 on the week’s following playing on Thursday night.

The Ravens let one get away in Kansas City and did not play their best football. Baltimore has extra rest and is playing a team that doesn’t play well on the east coast. Remember, Baltimore led the league in point differential last season and had nine wins by double digits. They know how to win big and have a very good opportunity to do so tomorrow against a Raiders team that looks to be in turmoil already.

DETROIT LIONS -7.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

We have a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game last season in which the Lions won 31-23. The big difference in that game was turnovers as the Lions won that battle 2-0.

Looking back at Week 1, the Lions were fortunate to come away with a victory as they needed OT to get past the Rams. Down south, the Bucs looked solid in their thumping of Washington. So simply from an eye test, and based on the close contest in the playoffs last year, these two teams look much closer than a 7.5 point spread.

The issue stems from Tampa’s health on defense. Especially in the secondary. They suffered four key injuries in Week 1:

All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is presumed OUT with a foot injury
CB Bryce Hall went on IR after Week 1 (nickel corner)
Starting CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, is questionable but did practice Thursday
DB Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday

That spells doom against a high-profile passing attack such as the Lions. I’m also concerned about the efficiency at which the Bucs can move the ball consistently. Tampa ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in week 1 and was 25th in rushing rank per PFF. Therefore, I’m siding with the Lions and for Detroit to get their first 2-0 start since the 2017 season.

CINCINNATI BENGALS +6 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Bengals once again floundered in their season opener. This time to a gutty Patriots team. For all intensive purposes though, gutty or not, the Patriots were supposed to be one of the worst teams n football entering the season. And what was more concerning was the offensive output as they scored just 10 points.

So, there’s no wonder that just 19% of the money this week is on the Bengals as they travel to KC in Week 2. In my Yahoo pick-em pool, 79% of the picks are on the Chiefs at -6.

Which is the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cincy. Listen, they looked terrible in week 1. But the Bengals play the Chiefs tough. Burrow is 2-0 in his career in the regular season against Mahomes. And he’s 3-1 overall including playoffs.

The Bengals need WR Tee Higgins back and I’m not sure he’ll suit up. If he is able to go, this becomes a smash play. Otherwise, the Bengals will need to find ways to get the ball to Chase early and often.

The Chiefs are always a public team, and rightfully so. And the Bengals are at a low point in bettors eyes. But this looks like a great spot to fade the norm and back a team that is better than what they showed last week. I’ll take the points with a possible outright win by Cincy.

SURVIVOR PICK

BALTIMORE RAVENS

I don’t always want to take the biggest spread but the fact that the Ravens lost week 1 and aren’t happy with it makes me very happy to back them ATS and in survivor. Baltimore is not happy with how they played against KC and will look to take that out on Vegas. Plus, based on the reasons above, the Raiders have some serious disadvantages that will be too tough to overcome.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 2

Joe DiCarlo 8 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Week One is in the books, and what a week it was! Some games played out as expected, and some were disappointments. I hope some of you profited from last week’s takes, Cash Game options Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill should’ve carried you across those pay lines. Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield were GPP gold too, and there’s more where that came from.

On to Week Two fellas, the time to start building your lineups is now. We have another 13-game banger, loaded with a few fifty-point totals. We have you covered all week long, so let’s get moving.
Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 9/15/24

Raiders @ Ravens (-9.5) (U/O 50)

The Ravens kick off the afternoon slate by hosting the Raiders and are looking to get back on track after a tough Thursday Night loss to the Chiefs. Lamar and company looked fresh out the gate but in the end, lost by a Likely toenail out of bounds in the end zone. The Vegas near ten-point spread tells us to prepare for a Raider a$$ whopping, so I’ll have my shares of Ravens this weekend, especially their run game. Vegas gave up a total of 176 yards rushing to the Chargers last week, mostly to a J.K. Dobbins running back coming off two years worth of ACL repairs.

Receiver Zay Flowers ( ten targets, 6REC/37YDS) and tight end Isaiah Likely (12 targets, 9 REC/111 YDS/1 TD) appear to be Jackson’s one-two punch on offense this season. I’m fine using them in Cash or GPPs. Mark Andrews, however, still does not appear to be 100% after his motor vehicle accident in the off-season. He’s off my radar at his current price tag for DFS until we see better performances.

if Baltimore does run the score up on Vegas, the Raiders will be playing from behind for a decent portion of the game. So we’re not interested in Zamir White, although Alexander Mattison (six targets, 4REC/43YDS/1TD) (hurry-up offense on the field, garbage time) for a GPP option would be a worthy dart throw. I’m not playing Minshew against a solid, blitzing Ravens defense (two sacks, three pressures on Mahomes in Week One) but Davante Adams and his fellow pass-catchers can be tournament plays.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers

GPP: Alexander Mattison, Davante Adams, Brock Bowers,Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Jakobi Meyers, Justice Hill (in case you feel he vultures from Henry)

Niners @ Vikings (+5.5) (O/U 48)

The Niners have finally entered the Sunday Slate, and they’ll have a great match-up on the road. The Vikes have some momentum coming into this game after destroying Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense on the road last weekend. We should see plenty of rushing attempts from both sides (Minnesota ranked ninth in offensive lines), especially the Niners (38 RuATT) if they get Christian McCaffrey back this weekend.

Let’s figure out this game script, shall we? Minnesota is given almost a touchdown on the spread, so they may need to throw the ball a little more than last week since their defense mainly won that game. Justin Jefferson14.9 YPR/1 TD in Week One) is always a lock, and Aaron Jones is their workhorse in the backfield (6.7 YPC/1 TD in Week One), that’s about it for certain. Until tight end TJ Hockenson gets back from his ACL and Jordan Addison’s second ankle injury gets evaluated, it’ll be a more condensed offense for Sam Darnold. The Niners’ defense is a play here too.

If it ain’t broken, Kyle Shanahan won’t fix it. They’ll continue to force their run game down their opponents’ throats. If CMC takes another week off because of his calf, it will be the Jordan Mason show again (5.3 YPC/128 YDS/1 TD). Deebo Samuel may also see some of the work, especially after he got into the end zone against a tough Jets defense. I love Purdy, but he just doesn’t fit the game script here if Minnesota comes up short on the scoreboard. Kittlecan can be a play for some underneath screen passes, and maybe Aiyuk will finally find paydirt this weekend after getting some practice under his belt. GPP is only for me.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey (Jordan Mason if he is out)

Update: Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Addison are OUT

GPP: Aaron Jones, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy

Saints @ Cowboys (-6.5) (O/U 45.5)

Both teams enter this game with a 1 – 0 record this Sunday, but only one team can leave victorious here, and I have a feeling it will be the home team. The Cowboys put the Browns’ offense and Deshaun Watson in a vise in Cleveland, so expect that defense to repeat that performance on Sunday. New Orleans kept up their end of the bargain on defense too, but to a much inferior Carolina team.

CeeDee Lamb had a quiet afternoon in Cleveland (5 REC/61 YDS), but it was because of the game flow, as the Browns could not move the football or keep possession of it (Two INTs/1 Pick Six). He has a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore and may see some extra coverage from Tyran Mathieu, so keep Lamb in GPPs. Tight end Jake Ferguson came down with an injury, Dak’s second option, so consider Brandin Cooks or Jalen Tolbert as other GPP targets in this contest.

The Saints’ Derek Carr had a very efficient game (86.2% completion) throwing three touchdowns, but it was against a bottom-feeder Panthers team. Dallas will put the heat on Carr on the road, which could lead to plenty of mistakes and an inability to move the ball. They’ll be playing catchup, yet Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed will see plenty of Trayvon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis, so they can be risky to roster. Dallas loves to blitz with Micah Parsons, so Carr will need to get rid of the ball fast. Alvin Kamara (5 REC in Week One) and his tight ends Juwan Johnson (2 REC/26 YDS/1 TD in Week One) and Foster Moreau (4 REC/43 YDS/1 TD in Week One)

Cash: Cowboys DST

GPP: CeeDee Lamb, Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Dak Prescott

Update: Jake Ferguson unlikely to play

Colts @ Packers (+3.5) (O/U 41)

The Pack are home from Brazil where they suffered a loss to the Eagles but took a bigger blow after Jordan Love suffered an MCL sprain, which will keep him off the field for a few weeks. Indianapolis put up a good fight but came up short to Houston this past Sunday, and will look to rebound from a Packers team looking to start Malik Willis.

We’re not sure what the Packers’ head coach has up his sleeve yet, but I feel he will play some “hide the quarterback” on Sunday. Malik Willis has never passed for over 100 yards or completed a touchdown pass in the 11 games he has played since 2022. On that note, we can’t have much faith in his receivers other than Jayden Reed who could be utilized in some trick plays. We should also see a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs, who has a great matchup. The Colts are still recovering from the blood bath from Joe Mixon (5.3 YPC/159 RuYDS/1 TD), who put them dead last in DVOA to opposing running backs this season. All Cheese Heads for GPP only, including Willis for his rushing upside and skimpy price tag ($5,000 on DraftKings). The Colts’ defense is a play too.

Indy will look to get into the win column on the back of their franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson. He threw for two touchdowns and ran one in himself against a tough Texan defense built by head coach DeMeco Ryans. His arm may not be needed if the Packers fail to score, but Richardson’s legs provide a very high ceiling for him. Richardson is safe for Cash games averaging over eight yards per carry on turf to a Packers defense that was trampled by Saquon Barkley a week ago.

Cash: Anthony Richardson, Colts Defense

GPP: Malik Willis, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed

Update: Josh Downs, Marshon Lloyd, and Jayden Reed are questionable, Jordan Love is OUT

Jets @ Titans (+3.5) (O/U 40.5)

Gang Green came up short Monday Night, but it was a sight for sore eyes to finally see Aaron Rodgers back on the field. The Jets have an identity now that they have a respectable quarterback, and should be able to move the football during the season. They’ll be on the road again in Tennessee to face a Titans team that was in total disarray in Week One against Chicago.

Will Levis of the Titans had his cage rattled by the Bears, throwing two picks, one taken to the house by Tyrique Stevenson. Levis will see even more pressure from the Jets’ front seven along with Sauce Gardner shadowing DeAndre Hopkins. Tennessee will lean once again on Tony Pollard (5.1 YPC/1 TD/94 TOT YDS) and the run game to move the chains until Levis can get his game together. Pollard saw a 60% snap share of the backfield in Week One, but the coaching staff has already mentioned getting Tyjae Spears “more involved” moving forward. Both are GPP plays and have a matchup that allowed Jordan Mason a career-high 147 rushing yards (5.3 YPC).

New York should go back to the well of their cut-and-dry style of offense, Rodgers to Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson…easy peasy. Hall’s yards per carry were only 3.4, but he never left the field with an 82% snap share and was very involved in the passing game (20.2% target share). Garrett Wilson was even more of a pillar to the offense with a 98% snap share and 37% target rate, seeing 11 against the Niners. But hey, let’s not forget about Rodgers’ teammate in Green Bay Allen Lazard. He has been resurrected officially from the fantasy graveyard and put back into perspective after his 6 REC/89 YDS/2 TDS stat line.

Cash: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Jets DST

GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears

Update: Mike Williams to get more of a workload

Seahawks @ Patriots (+3.5) (O/U 38)

The lowest total on the slate will be played at Gillette Stadium as the Pats look to keep the momentum going against the visiting Seahawks. Jerod Mayo used the playbook of his predecessor Bill Belichick of running the ball and playing tight defense, which turned into an upset victory in Cincinnati. Seattle also came out on top in Week One, capitalizing on an inexperienced Broncos team that failed to secure the football and relying on rookie quarterback Bo Nix to make plays.

We should again see plenty of the same from New England, get the ball into the hands of Rhamondre Stevenson (4.8 YPC/120 YDS/1 TD), and keep Seattle’s offense on the sidelines. Their defense could be another option this week, as they are still under $3,000 on DraftKings. The salary relief was tremendous in gathering studs for Week One and at the same time gave us an ROI of nearly five times the price tag. Gillette is a rough stadium on the road, so Geno Smith may sometimes struggle. I would only play Stevenson in tournaments, but the defense is safe for cash.

Seattle’s players received very high ratings in their Broncos victory, especially OT Charles Cross with a 94.8. Because of him and the rest of Seattle’s offensive line, Kenneth Walker was able to perform well (5.2 YPC/103 YDS/1 TD). But he left the game in the fourth quarter Sunday with an abdominal injury and did not practice on Wednesday. We’ll need to pay close attention to Walker’s status, in case he doesn’t suit up, Zach Charbonnet will get a tremendous bump up in workload. The potential loss would also force Geno Smith to rely on his receivers to move the chains. Whether Kenneth Walker plays or not, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett would be ideal for GPPs.

Cash: New England DST, Kenneth Walker (Zach Charbonnet if he is OUT)

GPP: Seattle DST, Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Update: Kenneth Walker is doubtful

Chargers @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 39)

LA fresh off winning their home opener, will visit Carolina for a cupcake matchup against the Panthers. We generally avoid low-total games with touchdown spreads, but there are always useful pieces to build lineups in every game for DFS. LA will keep it simple again this week, play solid defense, and pound the football up the middle. Harbaugh will play the hot hand with his running backs, and last week it was the return of J.K. Dobbins.

Dobbins carved up the Raiders’ interior defense, averaging over 13 yards per carry for 135 yards and a touchdown, so he’ll get first dibs. But I wouldn’t put it past Harbaugh to let Gus Edwards eat a little this weekend, especially against a 29th-in DVOA Panthers rushing defense. J.K. and the Chargers DST are safe for Cash but put Edwards in tournaments only.

Carolina seems to still be a work in progress for head coach Canales. They deployed a platoon of running backs, with Chuba Hubbard only seeing six carries. Bryce Young only averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt, with a pathetic 43% completion rate. His skill position players are all GPP options, so if you decide to go this route for tournaments, pay down. Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette combined for 12 targets. If this game gets out of hand, we can assume these youngsters see plenty of snaps in garbage time.

Cash: J.K. Dobbins, Chargers DST

GPP: Gus Edwards, Jonathan Mingo, Xavier Legette

Update: Josh Palmer is questionable

Giants @ Commanders (-2.5) (O/U 43.5)

New York was embarrassed in their home debut and will hit the road this weekend to face NFC East rival Commanders in Washington D.C. The Giants were held to two field goals by Minnesota, mainly because of Daniel Jones’ first game removed from a torn ACL, who simply does not look to fit the part. He does get a great matchup, as we witnessed Baker Mayfield go bananas for four touchdown passes against this same Washington secondary.

Jayden Daniels exploded onto the scene in his first NFL game, completing 70% of his passes and running in two touchdowns in Tampa Bay. Kudos to you if you had the stomach to start him for DFS, and why not double down against this Giants’ defense that allowed Sam Darnold to pass for two touchdowns? Terry McLaurin disappointed us big time last week, but I believe he will bounce back in this smash spot. The waters are still murky in Washington for receivers tied to Daniels, so keep McLaurin in GPPs for now.

And let’s not forget about Brian Robinson, he is a true piece of this offense. He continues to see the red zone work (1 TD/72% Opp Share in Week One). If the Commanders go ahead, it will be Robinson running down the clock in the second half. He’s a solid Cash play on the slate and under $6K on DraftKings.

The Giants I imagine will be playing catch-up again in this contest, and somebody has to see targets. Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson caught Jones’ eye the most last Sunday combining for 19 targets, Nabers saw a 100% snap share. Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans (5 REC/61 YDS/2 TDS) and Chris Godwin (8 REC/83 YDS/1 TD) massacred the Commanders’ secondary (31st in DVOA), so why not Nabers and Robinson?

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr.

GPP: Commanders DST, Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson

Bucs @ Lions (-6) (O/U 50)

A Cart-la-Blanche contest for DFS, loaded with options and a 50-point total. The Lions will look to keep that momentum moving in the right direction against a hungry Bucs team that is playing with a full head of steam. The game flow should play out in Detroit’s favor and could enforce their run game again, which steamrolled over LA in Week One.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 28 rushing attempts, 131 yards, and two scores. Tampa’s run defense has been suspicious and was exploited by Washington last week (128 RuYDS/3 TDS). Both backs should only be used in GPPs because of their timeshare and the unpredictability of Dan Campbell’s decisions. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta were ghosts last week while Jameson Williams stole the show (5 REC/121 YDS/1 TD). Look for them to be more involved as Williams popped up on the injury report, GPP only.

Tampa will continue to air it out with Baker Mayfield, especially given the matchup in Detroit (32nd in DVOA of opposing receivers). As they also will see a negative game script, we love all of his weapons for DFS this week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (combined for 144 REC YDS/3 TDS in Week One) are safe for Cash, Rachaad White, and Cade Otton. For Tournaments. I’d even go deeper into Tampa’s receiver room with the rookie Jalen McMillan (50 snaps, 10DKFPTS.) in a larger entry contest for leverage.

Update: Jameson Williams is IN (GPP/Cash)

Cash: Baker Mayfield, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam La Porta, Jahmyr Gibbs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, David Montgomery, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Jalen Macmillan (Punt)

Browns @ Jaguars (-4) (O/U 41.5)

The Browns and Jags enter this game 0-1, both getting embarrassed in their season openers. Somebody will end up in the win column this weekend, and it could very well be Cleveland. Jacksonville got pretty beat up by Miami last week, especially in their secondary. The Jags will be without defensive back Tyson Cambell and safety Daniel Thomas, which will be very enticing for Kevin Stefanski to scheme on.

Jacksonville is still considered to be a pass funnel, so running the ball at the line of scrimmage will be meaningless (Miami averaged 3.2 YPC). Deshaun Watson may be in line for a big day this Sunday, and very sneaky for tournaments after his disastrous performance against Dallas. Amari Cooper, and Jerry Jeudy, will also be in play along with a discount tight end option Jordan Akins, who’s filling in for the injured David Njoku. However, I would keep them all in tournaments.

Jacksonville thrived in their running game last week with Tank Bigsby eating from Travis Etienne’s plate. The latter out-performed Etienne in his short time on the field (30% of the snaps) rushing at 6.4 YPC (77 yards). Trevor Lawrence could be in for another long afternoon if Myles Garrett has his way, and Denzel Ward contains Christian Kirk. Evan Engram may be his only safe option away from this pressure by dinking and dunking with short passes.

Cash: None

GPP: Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Akins, Tank Bigsby, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk

Update: David Njoku is OUT

Rams @ Cardinals (+1.5) (O/U 50.5)

The Rams visit Arizona to open the afternoon part of the slate, and Vegas is anticipating it will be a burner. The tight spread indicates a back-and-forth type of atmosphere, one we would like to invest in for DFS. Puka Nacua has been placed on IR, so expect a very chalky Cooper Kupp this weekend. But let’s explore some pivots in this game, the ball will be all over State Farm Stadium.

Cooper Kupp (14 REC/110 YDS/1 TD in Week One) is officially back on the scene after a subpar 2023 season, mainly due to never being 100% healthy. But he isn’t going to see 23 targets, someone else will need to fill in Puka’s shoes. Demarcus Robinson (14.3% target share), Colby Parkinson (88% snap share), and Tyler Johnson (7 targets) are all candidates to step up this week. McVey may deploy a heavier run game too, so Kyren Williams may never leave the field this week, after seeing a 90% snap share in Detroit.

The Cardinals, where do I start? The only guy relevant for fantasy against the Bills last week was James Conner, the guy is like a machine. He only ran for 3.1 YPC but he can catch the football and find the endzone, making him viable. Hopefully, Kyler Murray can do his job this weekend instead of pointing the blame at the coaching staff, to distribute the football to the open man. We’ve all seen the highlights by now of Marvin Harrison waving on an island in the fourth quarter. LA gave up a ton of big plays last week to Jameson Williams (5 REC/121 YDS/1 TD), so this week the Cardinals could gain some traction.

Cash: Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, James Conner

GPP: Kyren Williams, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Johnson

Update: Davis Allen is OUT

Bengals @ Chiefs (-6) (O/U 48)

The defending champs have finally arrived at the Main Slate, and boy are we in for a treat. We’ll be like kids in a candy store for Cash Games since Kansas City provides plenty of secure options. But the Bengals are not the same 2022 AFC Champion team they once were. From Tee Higgins’ hamstring to Ja’Maar Chase’s contract drama, Cincinnati has their work cut out for them after that loss to New England.

The Chiefs opened up the season last Thursday night with a bang, with Patrick Mahomes (291 YDS/1 TD/72% Completions) carving up the Ravens’ defense. They clicked on all cylinders, from Pacheco’s hard-nosed running style (16 FPTS) to Rashee Rice (7 REC/103 YDS), and Xavier Worthy’s monstrous debut with a 21-yard touchdown run. The number one tight end in football was dormant (3 REC/34 YDS in Week One) , but his ceiling is still too high to pass up rostering. Look for KC to come out with the same tempo as the Bengals have become a rivalry over the years.

Injuries and hold-in negotiations weren’t the only off-season headaches that cost the Bengals a loss to a young Patriots squad, it could also be blamed on their offensive line woes. Burrow was sacked three times on Sunday and landed a QBR of 55.1. Without Tee Higgins, Ja”Maar Chase will see extra attention once again, forcing us to only use him in tournaments. Although my favorite Bengal would be Chase Brown. If the Bengals find themselves chasing a lead, Zack Moss would leave the field in favor of the Browns burst after the catch (11 yards per catch in 2023)

Cash: Isaiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice

GPP: Ja’Maar Chase, Xavier Worthy, Chase Brown, Chiefs DST

Update: Tee Higgins is OUT, Marquise Brown is on IR

Steelers @ Broncos (+3) (O/U 37)

Pittsburgh is a giant mystery with their quarterback situation. Russell Wilson is trending to missing the second game of the season from a calf injury, yet he was suited up on the sidelines last week. Fields got the job done, it wasn’t pretty for DFS, but the Steelers pulled off the win in Atlanta. Bo Nix and the Broncos will have another tough matchup against a Steelers defense that pressured Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins nine times, which turned into five sacks and two interceptions.

If Justin Fields does get the nod again, I would have no problem rolling him out in DFS. Under $6K on DraftKings is still a bargain for a guy who can easily put 30 fantasy points up at the drop of a hat. George Pickens is tethered to him being the only guy to throw to, but stay clear of the Pittsburgh backfield. The timeshare of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will continue to be whittled down even more as Fields takes off downfield himself.

All Broncos skill positions should stay in GPPs against this strong opponent in my honest opinion. News broke out this afternoon of Week One leading receiver Devaugn Vele listed out this week, so more opportunities will be available for Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds. The Denver defense may also be a move, because as we all know Fields is in Pittsburgh now for a reason…and one of them is for turning over the ball.

Cash: Justin Fields

GPP: George Pickens, Josh Reynolds, Steelers DST, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Najee Harris

Update: Devaughn Vele is OUT, and Russell Wilson is questionable… I think he has cold feet returning to “Broncos Country”

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 2! Remember to check back daily for more content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365! May your screens always be green!

8 months ago 0 comments

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LIVE Fantasy Football Pre-Game for Sept. 15

StixPicks 8 months ago

written by StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS Expert Stix Picks breaks down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate. He will preview all the Week 2 games, making DFS picks and reviewing some player props and bets.

8 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a big game to cover as the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets and a team in win-now mode. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Running Back

You may have heard of the 49ers RB. He’s pretty good at football. So there’s no hiding that Christian McCaffrey will be used in a heavy percentage of lineups tonight. The key will be to understand how to use CMac. As much as you heard about San Fran’s D last year, the Jets were just as impressive. Because they were so good against the pass, teams often tried to exploit them in the run game. While they ended 24^th in rushing yards allowed, they ended up 3^rd in DVOA against the run. That’s because the Jets saw the 3^rd most rushing attempts against them. New York ended up with the 10^th lowest ypc, 4.1, and allowed just 14 rushing TD’s, 11^th least in the league.

The good news for McCaffrey owners is that the Jets did allow the 7^th most points to opposing RB’s last year. And they allowed 100-yard rushing games to three different backs that are towards the upper echelon of the league in Isaiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. And none of those offensive lines matched up to the 49ers in run blocking grades as the Raiders were 14th, Chiefs were 16th and Giants were 30th in run blocking in 2023. San Francisco, on the other hand, was 1^st in run blocking grade last year and just re-signed their star LT Trent Williams.

Christian McCaffrey’s backup entering the season looks to be Jordan Mason as Eli Mitchell hit the IR during training camp. Mason did get some touches last year and flashed with a 5.1 ypc. I think there’s value in Mason tonight based on his potential to shed some of McCaffrey’s workload.

UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Move Mason up to a must play. His workload plus salary will let you afford Samuel/Hall/Wilson.

Tier 1: Jordan Mason

Tier 2: None

Wide Receiver

The Jets have one of the best defensive backfields in the league led by star CB Sauce Gardner. According to PFF, the Jets ended the season with the highest pass coverage rating in the league. Statistically speaking, the pass defense finished 2^nd overall in DVOA and 2^nd in pass yards allowed.

New York also imposes a good pass rush as they registered 48 sacks last season ranking in the top 10 in football. However, they are without DE Hasaan Reddick who was traded to the Jets in the offseason but has failed to report due to a contractual stalemate. So the Jets will now rely on inexperienced ends in Jermaine Johson and Michael Clemons to create pressure on the QB. One good news for the Jets is the 49ers were ranked 24^th in pass block rate in 2023. And PFF rates their Offensive Line at 25^th best heading into 2024. Their strength is run-blocking and they do struggle in pass-blocking. Even with the return of Trent Williams we could expect some conditioning issues and rust.

I think this is a very tough matchup for all 49er WR’s based on the great coverage skills of the Jets plus the 49ers difficultly in the pass blocking game. However, I do like Deebo Samuel because he can be used in the running game and we see that is a great place to attack the Jets. Plus with new, or inexperienced DE’s, the jet sweep could be deployed early and often. The big question mark is Brandon Aiyuk who signed late in the preseason. As with many late signees, I expect some rust. But more importantly I expect him to see a ton of Sauce tonight thus lowering his value. More often than not, Gardner did follow around the other team’s top WR each game.

With the injury to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall the 49ers will once again use Jauan Jennings as WR3. He will provide some salary relief and value tonight. But one WR to keep an eye on is rookie Jacob Cowing. HC Kyle Shannahan has great praise for Cowing stating “the game wasn’t too big for him”. The 49ers will likely use him on special teamsi ncluding punt returns.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel

Tier 2: Brandon Aiyuk, Jacob Cowing

Punts: Jauan Jennings

Tight End

Though the Jets are tough against WR’s, they are more foregiving to TE’s. That showed in the stats last year as the Jets allowed the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. The biggest showing was David Njoku’s 134 yard performance in Week 16. For those reasons as well as the Jets looking to take out WR’s, Kittle should be highly considered for your lineups and even the CPT spot.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

Like the 49ers, the Jets have one of the most dynamic RB’s in the game in Breece Hall. In most season long fantasy drafts, McCaffrey and Hall were the first two RB’s off the board. On the surface, it could be tough sledding tonight for the Jets running game. That’s because SF allowed the 3^rd least rushing yards last season. And they finished 4^th in rushing defense DVOA. But as we look deeper, there are points to be had here against a great SF defense. For one, teams were often down early against SF and abandoned the run. The 49ers D saw the least amount of rushing attempts in 2023. And according to PFF, they ranked 11^th in rushing defense grading last season.

And here’s another reason to be optimistic about Hall tonight, the 49ers allowed the 8^th most receiving yards to RB’s last season. On average, RB’s caught 5.3 balls per game for 36 yards against SF. And Hall is not your average receiver as he finished last season with 76 catches of his own.

The Jets drafted RB Braelon Allen in the fourth round to battle with other incumbents such as Israel Abanikanda for the backup RB job. And by all accounts, Allen won that job and will see the field tonight against SF. We do expect him to give Hall a break at times and get anywhere upwards of 5 touches tonight. He would need to punch one of those in the endzone for his value to hit.

Tier 1: Breece Hall

Tier 2: Braelon Allen (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The Jets are starting year two of the Aaron Rodgers experiment. And because of his tragic season ending injury in Week 1 of the 2023 season, we never got to see how good he could make WR Garrett Wilson. Instead, Wilson had to see passes from bad throwers such as Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemien. And his production was still very good as Wilson finished as WR 24 in 2023. What was most notable is that he was 4^th in targets with 168. So now, the hope is, that he’ll have many more balls on target that he can actually catch because it’s Aaron Rodgers. And he can now turn into the top 10 WR we’ve all been waiting for.

The other good news is that the 49ers ranked 18^th in adjusted points to fantasy WR’s last season. They have a solid CB in Charvarius Ward but the others rank in the bottom half of PFF’s DB grades. Meaning this defensive backfield can be had.

As for the other WR’s, free agent Mike Williams has been cleared to play and will be a big target downfield and in the redzone for Rodgers. Additionally, WR Allen Lazard’s production should see a spike with Rodgers at the helm based on their chemistry from the Green Bay days. Xavier Gipson will likely return kicks so his value goes up because of the potential for a special teams TD. I’m punting on the other low value WR’s in Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard

Tight End

The 49ers were good against TE’s as they allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns to the Tight End position in 2023. Fred Warner is one of the best LB’s in the game and can cover almost any TE. While I’m excited to see if this is finally the breakout year for Jets TE Tyler Conklin, this is a difficult matchup. Overall the 49ers were the 3^rd best unit against TE’s. The one optimistic thought is that he will see the field plenty and could get more downfield routes if Mike Williams is on a snap count.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a stud RB or WR. I’m passing on QB’s at the MVP position because of the opposing defense’s ability to rush the passer and defend on the back end. Both units ranked high against the run, but there are metrics showing you can succeed in the rushing attack. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we did see a combo of Jameson Williams and Lions RB’s hit. So I can see a scenario where we package Hall and Wilson as well as McCaffrey or Kittle/Samuel.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jordan Mason, Mike Williams

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jordan Mason, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy

DraftKings CPT Punt: Mike Williams

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Jordan Mason
Garrett Wilson
Breece Hall
Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
Brock Purdy
Brandon Aiyuk
Mike Williams
Aaron Rodgers
Tyler Conklin

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Jacob Cowing
Jordan Mason (moved to Tier 1)
Allen Lazard
Greg Zuerlein
Jake Moody
49ers D
Jets D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Malachi Corley
Jauan Jennings

Best Rules for the slate:

Play at least one stud RB
PLAY JORDAN MASON!
Play Garrett Wilson and/or Deebo Samuel
Only play 1 QB, or none
Be careful of Brandon Aiyuk because of the potential for Sauce to follow him around the field.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is only 43 and these are two top Ds o we could see points in kicking game.
Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Garrett Wilson over 5.5 catches (-160 FD) / Garrett Wilson most receiving yards (+125 DK)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week One

Dave Gloeckner 8 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Win Daily Sports is flying high into the first Sunday of the NFL Season. We’ve already had some solid hits on the Thursday and Friday Showdown’s. But now comes our wheelhouse, which is the Sunday Main Slate. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow but before then, hop into the projections and lineup optimizers readily available for all our members.

Like last year, I will be providing my top four games each week. Last season was a resounding success as I hit on 63% of my plays during the season and finished with a 49-29 record. You can check out Week 18’s article which gives the final tally as to how we finished.

I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool.

And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.

NFL BETS WEEK 1

ATLANTA FALCONS -3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Whether it’s Russel Wilson or Justin Fields, I like the Falcons to come away with a victory and cover in week 1 against Pittsburgh. There are several factors in play here but the largest one for me is the difference in offensive talent. First off, Atlanta likely had the worst play at QB in 2023 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke battling for worst in the league. So it was no surprise the Falcons invested heavily in the offseason at QB and brought in Kirk Cousins as well as drafting QB Michael Penix. Overall, Atlanta has the superior offensive units by owning the better QB, RB, WR’s, TE and O Line. Speaking of the offensive line, the Falcons return all five starters from a solid unit last year. This was a unit that ranked 4th in pass blocking and 7th in run blocking a season ago.

Defensively, I will give Pittsburgh a slight edge as they can provide a solid pass rush and have quality players in the defensive backfield. But Atlanta strengthened theirs in the preseason with the addition of LB/DE Matthew Judon which helps one of their biggest weaknesses which was pass rush (no player had over 6.5 sacks for Atlanta last season). You could argue their biggest splash on defense was bringing in Rams DC Raheem Morris as their head coach as he’s been at the helm of several top 5 defenses.

Don’t forget about one key intangible here, and that’s the person calling the plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons and inexplicably ignored his best player, Bijan Robinson, and fumbled every move at the QB position. Now he calls plays for the Steelers and will undoubtedly be motivated himself to prove Atlanta wrong. But instead, I think the motivation will come more from the 50,000+ fans in the seats.

Lastly, I see a significant market imbalance as 65% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers yet 60% of the money is supporting the Falcons. That tells me where the smart money is, and I love to follow that trail right to the ticket window.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Last year was supposed to be the next step for the Jags. In 2022 they came out of nowhere and won the AFC South under HC Doug Pederson. Then they won a playoff game, after being down by 28 points. And while they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, they did hold their own. Which is why they wore the crown of “next one up” and ended up as a team that couldn’t handle expectations as they crashed hard with a late season collapse.

So, one can understand why everyone is picking the Dolphins this weekend. For one, Miami is a public team that displays a high-octane offense and has character at the coaching and skill positions. The Jags are the opposite, as their coach is barely heard from as well as their QB and other stars. In one Yahoo pool I’m in, 91% of the picks ATS are on the Dolphins.

Which means we are zigging while everyone else is zagging. But this is more about the Dolphins who we all have a saying about. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Miami proved that to be real as they were 1-6 against teams with winning records last year, with their one victory coming by 2 points against Dallas. Even more alarming is they were outscored by 100 points in those 7 games.

While Jacksonville just missed out on the playoffs, they were a winning team at 9-8. And they have talent that’s equivalent to the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins are a heavy public play so I’ll swerve and go against the populous. I expect the Jags to be motivated by last years failures and ome ready to play and win this game outright on Sunday.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Washinton Commanders are generating some good buzz lately as HC Dan Quinn takes over a team that has been often overshadowed by ownership issues and poor play at QB. They used the 2nd pick in the draft to select Heisman Trophy winner QB Jaylen Daniels. And he’s looked the part in training camp and preseason. Almost like a young RG III who burst on the scene his rookie season and propelled Washington into the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Bucs are fighting against Father Time and somehow delayed the inevitable rebuild for another year. But it did put them in a precarious position as QB Baker Mayfield played so well that they had to sign him to an extension. I find that as more of a problem than solution as Mayfield isn’t the long term answer, as witnessed by his 2022 season when he was found jumping team to team. We’ve also seen WR Mike Evans continue to perform and high standards but he now enters his age 31 season meaning his production will soon see a dip.

The other trouble is the Bucs can’t run the ball efficiently. Which is exactly what HC Dan Quinn wants to do to offenses, which is make them one-dimensional. I like the matchup of the unknown (WASH) versus the overachiever (TB) here. Also factor in that Vegas doesn’t have teams fully figured out yet. Last year in Week 1, underdogs went 10-6 ATS and road teams went 12-4 ATS. I think this is a spot that’s dangerous for Vegas as they’re seeing 68% of the money come in on Washington.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -5.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Seahawks made a big change in the offseason as they parted ways with long-time HC Pete Carroll and brought in the Ravens DC Mike MacDonald to assume the role as Head Coach. While Carroll still has a role with the organization, this is clearly a new genre and one in which MacDonald has full autonomy. The Hawks were abysmal on defense last year and he has the pedigree and coaching aptitude to change that immediately.

The trouble for Denver is they have a rookie QB in Bo Nix starting his first NFL game. And it’s being played in one of the most raucous stadiums in the NFL in Lumen Field. Yes, Nix played in Oregon the last 2 years but that won’t get him prepared for the level of noise the 12th man brings.

Finally, this game has one of the largest deltas in ticket handles versus amount of money bet. At the time of this writing we’re seeing 47% of the tickets come in on Seattle against the spread. But more importantly, 74% of the money is on the Seahawks. This could impact the line by tomorrow so keep an eye on that. However, if you can get -6 or less than book it.

SURVIVOR PICK

CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bengals are in much better shape heading into the first week of the season than they were last year. There O-Line has been addressed and their franchise QB is fully healthy. They also received good news yesterday when star WR Ja’Marr Chase indicated he would play this weekend despite contract talks hitting a stalemate. But the real reason for this play is their opponent, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are considered by most to the be the worst team in football. They have the lowest win total at 4.5. And by all accounts from the preseason, HC Jerrod Mayo has some learning to do. Mayo looked overwhelmed in several situations including his choice of starting QB.

You don’t have many games in which you can use Cincy this year as the AFC North is one of the best divisions in football. So take them when you can and this is definitely one of those situations.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

8 months ago 0 comments

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LIVE Fantasy Football Pre-Game for Sept. 8

David Jones & StixPicks 8 months ago

written by David Jones & StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS Expert Stix Picks breaks down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate. He will preview all the Week 1 games, making DFS picks and reviewing some player props and bets.

8 months ago 0 comments

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