I’m not sure if we can replicate Week 5’s DFS picks, so many diamonds were uncovered in the rough. Players like Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tucker Kraft, and Joe Flacco all made the Breakdown which would have catapulted your lineups past the money line in your cash games and GPPs. On to Week 6, let’s try to make some more DFS magic as we chop it up in this article to figure out our paths to victory. Only ten games again this week due to the byes, so here we go…
Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 10/13/24
Commanders @ Ravens (-6.5) (O/U 52.5)
What a game to kick off the slate. Two of this season’s most dynamic quarterbacks will go head-to-head as Jayden Daniels travels to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson. Both are on heaters while leading their teams to victories as the Ravens have won their last three games and the Commanders have won four of their first five in 2024.
In a matchup with a 52.5 total, we can’t go wrong with any players for DFS. The rookie Jayden Daniels continues to lead the league in completion percentage (82%) and rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks (4). His arsenal will be in full effect, especially Terry McLaurin, who ranks third in deep ball catches with eight, and draws a favorable matchup against Marlon Humphries. Humphries was torched last game by Ja’Maar Chase’s 10 REC/193 YDS/2 TD stat line and has a rating of +18.8 to opposing wide receivers for the year.
The same goes for the Baltimore offense, fresh from scoring 41 points in their win on the road in Cincinnati. Lamar will get the matchup of the season, facing a secondary that has exploited all year in Washington (31st in PaTDs allowed with 11). Although we will never be sure which tight end will be productive from week to week, we can count on Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers to be involved in this game. Flowers should see plenty of St. Juste (+24.3 cover rating) lining up opposite of him, so expect to see plenty of targets in his direction.
Cash: Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Derrick Henry
GPP: Zay Flowers, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Rashod Bateman, Zach Ertz
Update: Brian Robinson Jr. is OUT
Cardinals @ Packers (-5) (O/U 49.5)
Here is another game to invest in for DFS, a nearly 50-total featuring two explosive offenses. Both clubs are also coming off decisive wins on the road and looking to keep their momentum moving. There are plenty of pieces here again to consider for DFS, let’s check them out.
Jordan Love is finally back to full health, as he showed us in LA, but he is not quite back for fantasy yet. Only 17 fantasy points, but I’m more than willing to roll the dice on a Jordan Love three weeks removed from his injury going up against the Cardinals’ 27th-ranked defense in points allowed. Receiver Christian Watson will miss another game of what looks to be multiple, but the Packers will get Romeo Doubs back from a suspension. Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Dontavion Wicks all viable this week, and Josh Jacobs will see a run defense that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns and 24th in DVOA to opposing running backs.
We can expect another nice turnout for the Cards again this week, as Kyler Murray put the team on his back to defeat the Niners last weekend as seven-point dogs. The Packers have been weak at defending the pass, especially since corner Jaire Alexander went down with a groin injury a couple of weeks ago. Their run defense has been suspect all year long, allowing proven running backs such as Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams to have field days. James Conner is one of those backs, and Murray could very well use his legs too on Sunday. Play your Cards for Cash games and GPPs.
Cash: Josh Jacobs, James Conner
GPP: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Reed, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs
Update: Christian Watson is questionable
Texans @ Patriots (+7) (O/U 37.5)
Houston will fly out to Massachusettes to face the bottom feeders of the AFC East, the New England Patriots. The Texans are coming off a victory over another AFC East team the Bills, where The Pats suffered their fourth-straight loss to Miami. Not much appeal here for DFS, but we can take a look and see on a flyer for GPPs.
Low-score totals are great for spotting defenses and running backs to draft. The Pats will be rolling out their first-round pick, number three overall Drake Maye to start this week. Since we have no idea where the ball will be going for New England, Maye and the offense will be high risk, but high reward since the ownership will be very low. We can be comfortable using the Texans’ defense, however, since rookie signal callers do make mistakes. Houston ranks 17th overall on defense.
The Texans did receive some bad news this week, as Nico Collins will need to be placed on IR due to a hamstring. This news brings Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell up the pecking order in targets, along with tight end Dalton Schultz. Running back Joe Mixon is trending toward missing another game because of a bum ankle, with Dameon Pierce still limited in practice (hamstring). We could yet again see Cam Akers season for a third week straight, but I’d rather take a shot against the gross Patriots’ secondary that has coughed up close to 1,200 passing yards already this season.
Cash: Tank Dell, Houston DST
GPP: CJ Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Gibson, DeMario Douglas, Drake Maye, Ja’Lynn Polk, Dalton Schultz
Update: Rhamondre Stevenson is OUT, Dameon Pierce is not on the injury report, Joe Mixon Expected to play
Bucs @ Saints (+3) (O/U 42)
Two NFC South rivals will look to bounce back after coming up short in both of their Week 5 matchups. Tampa played well in a shootout with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, but the Saints looked stagnant and perplexed against a solid Kansas City defense. New Orleans also suffered a huge loss at quarterback with Derek Carr tearing his oblique in the fourth quarter, putting him week-to-week according to head coach Dennis Allen.
In Carr’s absence, the Saints will dial up their fifth-round draft pick Spencer Rattler to lead the offense. Although he is min-priced and a DFS diamond for tournaments, the targets will be unpredictable, and we will need to wait and see how his offense is run. Rattler had a decent preseason, completing 52% of his passes with one touchdown and zero picks. Tampa Bay’s defense will be the week’s most popular rostered defense, just don’t pair Rattler with the Tampa D (it would be a conflict of interest), make separate lineups.
The Bucs’ injury report showed Rachaad White popping up with a foot injury, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status, even though Bucky Irving is obviously moving in on his job. It will be the same old song and dance with Baker, Godwin, and Evans, but Cade Otton draws an advantageous matchup against a Saints’ defense that ranks 31st facing opposing tight ends. All great options for tournaments, we can’t go wrong with owning a few Bucs this Slate.
Cash: Bucs DST
GPP: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Spencer Rattler, Cade Otton, Rashid Shaheed
Update: Rachaad White is Doubtful
Browns @ Eagles (-8.5) (O/U 43.5)
The Dog Pound travels to the City of Brotherly Love to take on an Eagles team fresh off of a bye week that looks on track to being 100% offensive. Back in Week 4, we witnessed Philadelphia get their keesters handed to them by the Bucs, who scored on command that game. If you’ve seen the highlights of Cleveland’s last outing, you wouldn’t have missed quarterback Deshaun Watson walking off the field on fourth down and giving up on his team against Washington.
After watching what happened on the field between Deshaun Watson and head coach Kevin Stefanski, I realized it would be very difficult to trust the offense until we see a change at quarterback. What was displayed against Washington was brutal on the eyes, so anyone for the Browns should be kept in tournaments. The Eagles DST will be another popular defense on the slate. But If I had to take a shot on one of the Browns it would be Amari Cooper. He’s seen 18 targets in his last two games and a nice matchup against Darius Slay who has been a shell of his former self (+18% to opposing receivers)
The Eagles will hit the field well-rested and hungry to get back on the right track at home. Expect to see a lot of emotions released on a Browns defense that allowed 34 points to a rookie-led offense a week ago. Jalen Hurts and company get the green light for DFS in this matchup. We have to monitor AJ Brown and Devonta Smith’s injury status going into the weekend, which will play a big role in deciding our choices for rostering.
Cash: Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST
GPP: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Amari Cooper
Colts @ Titans (+1) (O/U 43)
Tennessee will host the Colts this weekend at home, who are loaded with injuries. The Titans will come out well-rested,from a Week 5 bye and desperate for a win. Indianapolis, who is also looking to get back into the win column, will need to do so without a few key pieces of their offense.
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are the latest Colts to join Jonathan Taylor on the injury report this weekend. However, quarterback Anthony Richardson is trending in the right direction by practicing in full all week. If both receivers sit out, Alec Pierce and the rookie Adonai Mitchell will be in the driver’s seat for a full target share with Anthony Richardson, so keep a close eye on the news this weekend. Jonathon Taylor continues to miss practice, which leaves the entire backfield to Trey Sermon one more time. Sermon scored twice and caught all seven of his targets from Flacco in Week 5.
Tennessee sits in a great spot to return from their bye week, as they will face the 29th-ranked passing and 31st-ranked rushing defense. Tony Pollard will be a lock for Cash, with Ridley, and Hopkins all viable options for tournaments. Ridley draws the best match-up facing corner Sam Womack (+26.5 cover rating). The Jaguars’ rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (5 REC/122 YDS/1 TD) feasted from Womack’s lackluster defense. Stay away from the Titans quarterback situation, as Levis could get pulled again for Mason Rudolph.
Cash: Tony Pollard
GPP: Trey Sermon, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell (if Pittman/Downs do not play), DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Joe Flacco
Update: Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are expected to play, Jonathan Taylor is OUT, Joe Flacco will start
Chargers @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 35.5)
LA also coming off a bye will travel to Mile High Stadium to battle the white-hot Broncos who are on a three-game winning streak. The total is disgusting, as both teams play at a very low pace and take pride in their defenses. We may just play it safe with both teams’ DSTs, but let’s dive into a few other players for tournaments.
Denver’s Bo Nix is quietly getting better from week to week, throwing for two touchdowns with a 70% completion in Week 5. But he will face the 5th-ranked passing defense in LA and would be pretty risky to roll out for DFS. I would be willing to take a shot again on Javonte Williams, the Broncos’ back was money in the bank last week. He regained the majority of the snap share (60.1%) and averaged well over 5 yards per carry adding 5 catches for 50 yards.
The same goes for Justin Herbert this week, not that he’s been a gunslinger at quarterback this season anyway. Denver is ranked second in points allowed, and third in total yardage. The ground game will be key for LA, and it’s been all J.K. Dobbins from the start. He worked his way to a 70% snap share in Week 4 but has fizzled out his last two games to single-digit fantasy points. Gus Edwards is trending in the wrong direction and is not practicing this week. Dobbins will be in sole control of the backfield if Gus sits, but he’s only a GPP player.
Cash: Broncos DST, Chargers DST
GPP: JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Bo Nix
Update: Gus Edwards is OUT
Update: Josh Reynolds placed on IR
Steelers @ Raiders (+3) (O/U 36.5)
The Steelers will head over to Vegas while they recover from a loss in Dallas to square off against a Raiders team ready for tank mode. Davante Adams is still on the trade block while Zamir White is set to miss his second straight contest, and both still cannot foresee who will start at quarterback from week in and week out. Another nauseating total of 36.5 to dissect, so let’s get it over with.
Davante Adams is still looking for a new place to call home, but until then he will nurse his so-called hamstring injury and sit out yet again. This situation continues to force the ball into the hands of rookie tight end Brock Bowers and wideout Tre Tucker. Quarterbacks in Vegas are useless for DFS, as Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell can be pulled at any given situation, The matchup is tough enough as it is, so keep everyone in silver and black in tournaments while they face the number two defense in the league in points allowed.
Justin Fields will get the nod once again to start for the Steelers, but buyer beware. Russell Wilson has been cleared to play but will be listed as the number two QB to start the game. If Fields continues to struggle as he did against Dallas, Tomlin will be prepared to yank him out. Either way, George Pickens and Pat Friermuth should be safe to roster regardless of who is under center.
Jaylen Warren is set to miss another game, which will give another full workload to Najee Harris. The matchup is decent, Vegas is 22nd in DVOA to opposing running backs and was extremely generous to Javonte Williams for fantasy last weekend (16 FPTS).
Cash: Najee Harris, Steelers DST
GPP: Justin Fields, George Pickens, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker, Brock Bowers, Pat Freiermuth, Vegas DST
Update: Jakobi Meyers is Doubtful
Falcons @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 47.5)
Atlanta returns to the slate off of a long week’s rest after defeating the Bucs in a come-from-behind fashion victory last Thursday. They’ll get a divisional game in Carolina, where the matchups will be fruitful. The Panthers and Andy Dalton have finally come back to Earth, taking their lumps in another loss in Chicago. Carolina will be home, but the momentum will be tough to stop of the Falcons.
Five hundred yards, over five football fields Kirk Cousins threw for last weekend. If you’re looking to chase fantasy points, look no further than this game on the slate. Carolina’s defense continues to struggle, now listing Jadaveon Clowney as a DNP on Friday. They’ve allowed the most rushing and second-most passing touchdowns in the league, so everybody for Atlanta is a green light for DFS.
The total is 47.5 for a reason, as bad as Carolina’s defense is, they are still capable of moving the chains. For the Panthers angle of DFS, I would lean to ride the hot hand of Chuba Hubbard, but only in GPPs. The Falcons average close to 150 rushing yards per game, and he is the only back in town until Jonathan Brooks is ready to go. Hubbard has crushed his salary, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games (97 last week) with three touchdowns.
Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette pooped up questionable, so if you are considering any other pieces to this offense besides Hubbard, keep a close eye on practice news. The Falcons were picked apart in their secondary by Baker Mayfield in the first half last Thursday, but the caliber of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is not equal to Johnson and Legette. Keep them away from Cash games.
Cash: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Chuba Hubbard
GPP: Kirk Cousins, Diontae Johnson (if healthy), Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Xavier Legette
Lions @ Cowboys (+3) (O/U 52.5)
Last, but certainly not least, we have the barn-burner of the afternoon as Detroit flies into Dallas. Both teams are coming off of huge wins, with Detroit being very well rested returning from their bye week. The total spells it out plain as day, and the spread dictates a back-and-forth type of game flow. I feel this game will show plenty of ownership on the slate, so let’s check it out.
Detroit will look to establish the run game early on, and Dallas has been a turnstile to opposing running backs, allowing the fifth most touchdowns so far this season with eight, and tenth most yards (675). Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have both been equally effective for fantasy value, so you can’t go wrong in their timeshare (each averaging 17 FPTS per game).
When the run game gets going, Goff will start up the play action. The passing targets have all gone to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who has put a lid on Sam La Porta’s opportunities because of his breakout. La Porta should only be used in GPPs. until Willams takes his foot off the gas.
The writing is on the wall in the Cowboys’ locker room, bring your “A” game. Whatever drama is going on between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb needs to be put to bed, because Detroit will have no problem scoring on this defense potentially missing Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.
This game will rest in Dak’s arm. Detroit is ranked 27th in defending the pass, now we know Lamb should be effective, but the real question is will Jalen Tolbert? He’ll line up across from Terrion Arnold, whose coverage is absolute garbage (+24.8). Tolbert and Jake Ferguson will both reap the benefits of more targets thanks to Brandin Cooks landing on IR.
As for a Cowboy running back, we love Dowdle for his pass-catching ability and role in the hurry-up offense. Zeke Elliot’s wheels have fallen off the axle and Dalvin Cook has been MIA, leaving Dowdle, Luepke, and Deuce Vaughn as the last backs standing.
Cash: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, Jameson Williams, Rico Dowdle, Sam La Porta
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
