NFL DFS

We had our second losing week of the year as Houston failed to cover by 0.5 points because their kicker got hurt. Those are the breaks and staying consistent with our methods is the key. We’re due for a lucky break and a big week. Which is exactly what we’re chasing for in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL Season. The good news is that we didn’t sweat our Survivor pick as Cleveland pulled away early against the Cardinals and won in blowout fashion.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 21-15 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 10

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings added another miracle to their resume last week as QB Josh Dobbs came in the second quarter to captain Minnesota to an improbable comeback win in Atlanta. This was so improbable based on the fact that he joined the team just a few days prior to the game and didn’t know most people’s names or the plays. But that was also against a defense that was 25th in DVOA. The story is much different this week with the Saints as they rank 9th overall in defensive DVOA.

Additionally, the Vikings have covered in four straight and are 5-3-1 ATS. However, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS at home. The public is backing the Vikings in both the money and number of bets (66%). This is a clear reflection of their recent play and the fact that NO has been bad to bettors this year (2-6-1 ATS). That changes today and the Saints will make sure the Dobbs magic was for just one week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +2 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

With talk of Bill Belichick’s job being on the line, I expect the Patriots to play inspired football today. Going into last season, Belichick was 25-4 SU against rookie head coaches. And that’s what he faces today with Shane Steichen taking over the Colts this season.

Looking deeper at the Colts, the issue is on defense where they allowed 37 points in three straight games before last week’s contest where they allowed just 13 to the Carolina Panthers. But the Panthers outgained the Colts and the victory came because of two defensive scores.

While New England’s offense isn’t much better than Carolina, I do believe they’ll be able to attack the Colts much better than the Panthers did. A back against the wall Belichick versus a rookie HC who has a porous defense. That’s enough ingredients for me to back the Pats today.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -3 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The 49ers bye week came at a perfect time as they have been spiraling downwards in losing three straight games. A week away can only help them get rid of the bad vibes and refocus their energy on how dominant they were to start the season. On the other hand, the Jags also had a bye week but went into that in an opposite direction than San Fran as Jacksonville has won five straight.

Besides the difference in momentum, the teams are also flipping spots in how they perform. The Jags rank 3rd in defensive DVOA while the 49ers rank 15th. And offensively, the 49ers rank 1st in DVOA while the Jags are 14th. The strengths and weaknesses of these teams are flipped from what they are perceived to be. And with that, the 49ers will be motivated to get back to their winning ways and do it defensively. They will be able to create pressure and get after Trevor Lawrence.

This line is definitely tilted to SF as the books as look at the 49ers being almost one TD better than Jax on a neutral field. Give me the team that needs the win more today, and one that will be fired up coming out of their bye.

NY JETS -1 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Jets are atrocious on offense. And yet here they are at 4-4 and still competing for a playoff spot. And the reason this line is where it’s at is mainly because of optics. The Jets scored just six points last week in prime time while the Raiders, who looked awful the week before on MNF, crushed the Giants. But if you look deeper at the numbers, the Jets held the Chargers to just 191 total yards last week. And that’s against a quality QB. Imagine what they can do versus a rookie starting only his second NFL game? The NFL is cyclical, and I believe an embarrassing loss like last week gives us an edge today. I’ll back the Jets as fade the public here as defense will rue the day.

SURVIVOR PICK DALLAS COWBOYS

Two Words: Tommy DeVito

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

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We finished 2-2 last week brining our season long record in the NFL to 20-12. It’s been a solid season and look to continue that into Week 9. It’s been a busy weekend so the writeups are short. But there’s still some money to be made no matter the length of the analysis or not.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 20-12 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 9

HOUSTON TEXAS -2.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Texans lost a nailbiter to the Panthers last week. But the good news is that they’re back home in Texas where they are 2-1 this year. The Bucs, on the other hand, are coming into this contest losers in three straight games. But that hasn’t stopped the public from backing Tampa with 66% of the money and 70% of the bets coming in on the Bucs. I’ll fade the public here as I think the Texans are the better team and will win this game.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -1.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

The Raiders fired their head coach and GM last week. They also announced a new starting QB in rookie Aidan O’Connell. And they’re coming off a short week as their last game was Monday night. Yet, with all the moving pieces, they are still favored versus the Giants today. I’m trusting Vegas here, in several ways, and will back the Raiders against a punchless Giants group that just knows how to lose games.

BUFFALO BILLS +2.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bills last trip to Cincy ended in a tragic site that ended with a miracle. They return to that frantic scene tonight and will have Damar Hamlin making that trip with them. While the Bills have been somewhat of an enigma this season, they have motivation on their side to win one for Damar. I believe the matchup in the trenches will be the difference and Buffalo will create enough pressure on Joe Burrow to come out of Cincinnati with a W.

ATLANTA FALCONS -3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taylor Heineke is back in a role he was suited for. Backup NFL QB promoted to starting QB to save a team looking to make a push for a Division title. Isn’t that what he did every season in Washington? But in all seriousness, Heineke will bring a new wrinkle to the offense as they’ll be able to press the ball downfield more with him under center. They are missing Drake London today but still have enough weapons on O to put up points.

And on the other side, they are facing rookie QB Jaren Hall who was somewhat of an afterthought in this years draft. He’ll be under pressure to make plays with his arm as Atlanta boasts the 2nd best run defense according to PFF.

SURVIVOR PICK CLEVELAND BROWNS

I have concerns about this pick as Cleveland is bringing Watson back in to start and we could see some rust from their franchise QB. But the defense should be able to hold down Arizona long enough for the offense to click and pull out the W.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.