NFL DFS

NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 7

We can’t start talking about NFL Game by Game Breakdown without congratulating Stix one more time on a $200+K day last Sunday. That’s the kind of day you dream about and I can’t wait to get into this week. We’ve got a nice full slate so let’s get right down to business.

Panthers at Saints, O/U of 51 (Saints -7.5)

Panthers – Pace is 28th

QB – When we’re talking about game stacks and cash games this week, Teddy Bridgewater is a strong option for both. Yes, he had a really rough game last week but the Chicago passing defense is second in football. They shouldn’t be taken lightly. Teddy B gets a totally different matchup, since New Orleans is 15th in passing DVOA and were last seen getting lit up by rookie Justin Herbert on Monday Night Football.

The Saints haven’t given up a ton of passing yards but they are 19th in that category. What has been their Achilles heel is the touchdowns surrendered at 15, second-most in the NFL. Maybe that cures Bridgewater’s lack of touchdowns, since he only has six. He’s seventh in passing yards total and third in on target rate (not to mention fourth in completion rate), so there’s not much more we can ask from Bridgewater. Well, a touchdown or two would be great but the price is fantastic. He fits well into game stacks to allow the more expensive players and will likely check the boxes for a perfect cash QB, even with just 24 RZ passing attempts so far.

RB – We were talking stacking the QB/RB in Discord on Tuesday night and while it can be done, you have to be picky. Bridgewater and Mike Davis are a good example of a combo that could really work. It was odd to see him get only three targets this past week. In every week since Christian McCaffrey has been hurt, Davis has been targeted at least six times. In fact, he’s third among running backs in targets despite combining for three in Week 1 and Week 6. I’m willing to say “anomaly” and move on from the lack of targets in one game.

That’s not to say this is a great spot on the ground for Davis. New Orleans is inside the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game and sit fifth in rushing DVOA. They are only giving up about five receptions a game to the position as well, so on paper the matchup is very average. However, we have to look at the volume overall. Davis has 98 touches in the five games he’s been involved in. That’s basically 20 per game in what’s projecting to be a high-scoring affair, and he has 15 red zone attempts to go with eight RZ targets. Earning 23 RZ chances in five games is excellent and he should likely be closer to $7,500.

WR – It’s still completely crazy to me that Robby Anderson is second in the league in receiving yards behind only DeAndre Hopkins and is fourth in receptions. He’s been over 75 yards in each game but one and has recorded at least four receptions every single week. He’s done this despite only earning four more targets than D.J. Moore, one of the more popular receivers in the offseason. Anderson leads in RZ targets 5-2, although Moore has the EZ target lead at 4-3. Even the air yards are fairly close with Moore holding a 88 yard lead on the season.

Since Anderson had a floor game last week, the price came down and $6,000 seems awfully cheap for his production so far. I’m not particularly concerned about Marshon Lattimore for the Saints either. He’s only been targeted 16 times in four games but has allowed 16.4 yards per reception, a 145.8 passer rating, has been burned almost 20% of the time and a 2.60 points per target allowed. He’s been reputation only this season. Given the salaries involved, Anderson is pretty far above Moore in my eyes for this slate.

TE – Ian Anderson remains just a rumor to this point, with only 11 more targets than myself.

D/ST – With the Saints coming out of a bye and getting more weapons back on offense, it’s hard to see why we would play the Panthers. They rank 23rd in DVOA and only have five sacks I’m not putting a ton of stock into the nine turnovers so far. The Saints offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate in football, so this seems like a very poor mix.

Cash – Bridgewater, Davis, Anderson

GPP – Moore

Saints – Pace is 20th

QB – If there’s a time to play Drew Brees, this could well be it. The only time he’s shown any ceiling is at home, with two games over 23 DK points. The first game against the Bucs doesn’t look so bad as we get deeper into the season, as they may well be the baddest defense in football. The Panthers deserve some credit for ranking 13th in DVOA against the pass, and have only given up the fourth-fewest DK points per game to QB’s. Still, I’m going to be tempted by Brees in a game stack if nothing else.

Brees only has 26 RZ attempts, which is just 15th in football. However, he is third in completion rate and fifth in on target rate. The easy criticism is his lack of throwing it downfield. Among quarterbacks with five games played, he has the fewest intended air yards. He also ranks 34th in air yards per attempts but looks better at 17th in points per drop back. I don’t think there’s much debate that he’s lost some zip on the fastball, but the 62.5% completion rate on the deep ball he does throw is fourth in football. With a certain receiver (maybe) returning to action, Brees could have a vintage Brees game.

RB – It certainly looks like one of the best plays on the slate is Alvin Kamara. The Saints really haven’t fed him carries, with just 61 on the year (28th among running backs). However, he’s been incredible on DK since his 38 receptions would rank fifth among receivers. His 395 receiving yards would be 16th, so it’s not hard to see where the value comes in to augment his rushing production. The seven total touchdowns don’t hurt either.

The question is whether he retains his 26.6% target share but the rushing matchup doesn’t get much better. Carolina is 26th in rushing DVOA and rank fourth-worst in DK points per game. They’re tied for the most rushing touchdowns given up at eight and the 10th most rushing yards to backs. Perhaps even better for Kamara, Carolina has also given up the most receptions to backs and the third-most receiving yards. Just get him 20 touches in this game and he should go bonkers. Kamara has a strong chance of being in the Core Four, but don’t forget about Latavius Murray. He has at least eight carries in four games and if he gets double-digits, he could smash value at a very low price. Murray’s 10 RZ attempts are only four behind Kamara.

WR – What to do with the receiving corps is a pretty interesting question. Michael Thomas is presumably back after being disciplined by the team in Week 5. We’d have to assume he’s healthy since his absence was not health related the last game. He is wildly cheap for the MT we all know and love for fantasy, and I wonder if he flies under the radar a little bit this week. I mean, he was $9,000 in Week 1 and did virtually nothing. We haven’t seen him since.

*Update* Thomas has yet to practice this week and is in danger of missing again. He said on Twitter he had a setback, but that doesn’t track since he was healthy in Week 5. It would be a new injury or something else behind the scenes. Sanders would be far more interesting with Thomas out and isn’t expensive enough in that case. Panthers corner Rasul Douglas would shadow Sanders likely and has been stout at a 1.40 points per target. It’s more volume expected from Sanders at a 22.1% target share from Week 2 on.

*Friday Update* Thomas is out with injury and Sanders is out with Covid. That brings Smith to the forefront in the passing game and Rasul Douglas is also out for Carolina. That’s a big hit to the secondary and I do like Tre’Quan with little other options. Both he and Kamara can pay off in the same lineup and this should bump up Murray as well. He should have at least 10-12 carries to keep Kamara fresh and that could be plenty to hit 3x.

What’s harder to figure out is the secondary options. Last year, Thomas and Kamara ate up just over 55% of all targets which is an awful lot. Thomas himself accounted for over 40% of the air yards, so is there anything left for Emmanuel Sanders or Tre’Quan Smith? I’m leaning no for Smith and am not that interested. Sanders has gotten more productive every single game and perhaps he just needed some game reps in the system. Sanders and Murray are risky parts of a game stack but they will not be rostered hardly at all. Color me intrigued for both in larger GPP’s.

TE – He’s not super expensive but it sort of feels like you need Jared Cook to score in this game to be happy with him. He only has a 12.4% target share even with Thomas gone, so there’s not a lot of reason to expect it to get better. He hasn’t even been a major RZ weapon with just three targets on the year, though he does have two EZ targets. The Panthers have been stout against the position on top of everything else. They’ve only allowed two touchdowns and not even 225 yards yet. I’ll likely be invested elsewhere with the Saints offense.

D/ST – With Bridgewater only being sacked twice a game and a pressure rate under 16.5%, I’m not in love with the Saints. The price is fairly high and they’ve only generated one turnover per game. We can find different options that look better on paper, since they allow 30 points per game.

Cash – Kamara, Tre’Quan

GPP – Murray, Brees, Cook

Bills at Jets, O/U of 45 (Bills -12.5)

Bills – Pace is 25th

QB – It has not been a great two weeks for Josh Allen. He was just average against the Titans two weeks ago before really scuffling in the rain last Monday. Only throwing for 122 yards and having a completion rate under 52% looked far too much like his first two seasons in the league. Conditions were ugly, but Patrick Mahomes managed to go 21 for 26 so…just pointing that out. Now in fairness, his 15 drops are the most in football.The three turnovers the past two games aren’t doing him any favors either, though this is a perfect get right spot.

This is one of the first repeat games we’ve got so far and Allen thrashed the Jets the first time around for three total touchdowns and 33.2 DK points. Despite his struggles, Allen is still over 67% for his completion rate and has 16 passing touchdowns with three rushing in six games. He’s second in yards off play action passing and is top five in intended air yards, so you love to see those metrics. His 0.59 points per drop back is fourth in the league, as is his 113.8 passer rating. I’m of the mind he puts the past couple games behind him quickly and has a big day agains the Jets and their 31st ranked passing DVOA.

RB – This backfield is pretty gross. Zack Moss came back on Monday, at least we were told he was active. The 13 snaps and five touches didn’t exactly make us notice him, but he does still own 43% of the running back carries and is tied for second in RZ attempts with seven. Devin Singletary does have more with 10, but had three full games without Moss so that’s not super impressive. Singletary has carved out an 11.2% target share but I can’t help but notice the way touches were distributed in the one fully healthy game together. Moss had 14 touches and Singletary had 14, and this makes me wonder if Moss isn’t the better value if he’s ready to go. The Jets are 13th in rushing DVOA but have also given up the sixth-most rushing yards to backs and eight total scores.

WR – Of receivers that have six games played, Stefon Diggs is fourth in points per game. He’s really been everything the Bills had hoped for in making a big splash to get him, sitting third in receptions and yards in the league. He’s earned a 27.6% target share to go along with 35.9% of the air yards and there’s little reason to think his train stops rolling here. Pierre Desir looks ill-equipped to put up a fight at 2.60 points allowed per target, a 118.3 passer rating allowed and three touchdowns allowed as well.

I thought I saw John Brown a little gimpy on the first couple plays and figured that was why he had a zero on four targets. Imagine my surprise when I saw he played 96% of the snaps on Monday, which makes it tougher to explain. To be sure, he’s not a primary option. Cole Beasley has 10 more targets and is tied for the RZ target lead with six. Brown has he air yards on him for sure at 26.5% even with missing a game. I typically only use Diggs from Buffalo.

*Update* Brown did not practice and if he misses, Beasley becomes more of an option.

*Friday Update* Brown is out so Beasley isn’t a bad cheap option at all. Brian Poole has played well this year but he’s not someone you avoid.

TE – Not a single tight end on this roster has a target share over 7.6% and that’s Dawson Knox. There’s just not enough go go around for this position to give it much weight as a play this week.

D/ST – The Jets offense just got shut out. Do you know how hard that is in today’s NFL? I know Buffalo has been disappointing on that side of the ball, but New York has allowed the eighth-highest pressure rate. The Jets are also the worst scoring offense by over four points per game. Now, I’m not paying that much for a defense but they are in play, in theory.

Cash – Allen, Diggs

GPP – Beasley, Moss, Singletary,

Jets – Pace is 2nd

So this rarely will happen, but I’m not going to talk about every position here for the Jets. Of their skill players, only one averages over 7.4 DK points per game. Sam Darnold might be back, but he’s under 15 DK per game and that’s likely crushing from the QB spot. Even though Buffalo is a staggering 27th in overall DVOA, the Jets are simply incapable of taking advantage.

There’s two players that have my eye to an extent. La’Mical Perine did take the lead in snaps at 51%. That only translated to nine touches, but Buffalo is 24th in rushing DVOA and they got gouged by the Chiefs Monday. Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t walking through that door any time soon, but the case is there for a cheap GPP flier with a super low floor.

The second player is a very underpriced Jamison Crowder. He shouldn’t be under $6,000 and he roasted the Bills for 27.5 DK in Week 1. Why? Because he lives in the slot at a 73.4% rate and that leaves him off Tre White. Someone has to move this offense and Crowder is that man. He’s rocking a 31.5% target share on the season and no other player is over 21%. His DK price really makes little sense and he’d be a Core Four candidate if I had confidence in the team. I believe he and Diggs could make a very nice mini-stack from his game.

*Friday Update* Crowder is questionable with a hamstring, which is a bit of a worry at this stage

Cash – Crowder

GPP – Perine

Lions at Falcons, O/U of 55 (Falcons -2.5)

Lions – Pace is 12th

QB – This game is going to get a lot of attention through the week as it opened as the highest O/U and Matthew Stafford is going to be popular. I mean, Kirk Cousins put up a massive score in this same spot and Stafford is far better than Cousins. One of the frustrating components for Stafford so far is Detroit is only 22nd in passing attempts. That has left Stafford with under 250 passing yards per game, which doesn’t make much sense to me. He’s their best asset in the offense but not being used enough.

This could be a game that breaks the mold since the Atlanta offense is capable of scoring on the other side, and playing Stafford banks on that game script. The fear is if Detroit leads most of the way, he might not get the volume you hope for. The Falcons have sunk to the worst team in football for DK points given up per game to the QB, so the spot couldn’t be better for Stafford. He is fifth in RZ attempts but only 18th in points per drop back, so you need volume this week. I’m leaning he gets enough of it and pays off his price.

RB – I really, really wanted to love D’Andre Swift this week and he’s still in play. His strength and majority of the role in the offense is the pass catching back. Swift has a 12.3% target share, while Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson have combined for 7.3%. Atlanta has allowed the second-most receptions to the position, but they are eighth in rushing DVOA. That really shows up in the 410 rushing yards allowed to running backs through six games.

My fear is Peterson is still heavily involved. Even last week when Swift was being a young GOAT, AP still played just two fewer snaps and carried it 15 times to Swift’s 14. The good news was Swift go four RZ attempts to two for AP but does that stick this week? If Coach Matt Patricia insists on giving Peterson 15 carries against the Atlanta rushing defense, it could derail the day for the whole offense. All I can remember is when rookie Kerryon Johnson greatly out-played LeGarrette Blount but Blount kept getting fed almost every week. I greatly prefer Swift and he’s the only back I’d play, but understand the risks heading into this spot.

WR – With the volume not quite being what we’d like for Stafford, the receivers have sort of suffered as well. Don’t get me wrong, Kenny Golladay has been excellent in his three games this season. He’s recorded a score or 100 yards in all three, but also averages just seven targets per game. The overall target share of 22.8% isn’t super high either, though his 23.8% RZ target share does help mitigate that. The aDOT is 13.7 so the targets are the valuable kind that we love but I think this is about as high as I would go in salary. Rookie A.J. Terrell hasn’t been great at the next level with two touchdowns allowed, a 118.9 passer rating and a 2.40 points per target.

Only one team has given up more yards to the position so that should leave us wanting more and Marvin Jones has typically fit that bill but 2020 has not been a kind season to Jones. He’s played five games and has under 150 yards receiving and only 24 targets total, which isn’t going to be that appealing. The target share is under 15% and even his work in the RZ has taken a hit a just 13.3%. The matchup is nice with Kendall Sheffield at a 105.9 passer rating allowed and 16.0 yards per reception. Playing him is sort of a leap of faith at this point and you’re only going for it if you think the game is a total shootout.

TE – He comes in a hair more expensive but my preferred secondary play for the Lions passing game is T.J. Hockenson. The target share is virtually identical but Hockenson leads in RZ targets at seven and EZ targets with six. That’s fourth and second among tight ends, respectively. The Falcons have been thrashed by tight ends so far and gave up a solid game to Irv Smith last week. Hockenson plays more and is a far more involved player in his own offense. Atlanta has now allowed the most touchdowns to the position at seven and the second-most yards and receptions. A Stafford/Golladay/Hockenson stack with an Atlanta receiver coming back is very intriguing.

D/ST – The Lions have only six sacks and six turnovers through the five games they’ve played and the pressure rate is under 20%. Even though the Falcons give up a 22% pressure rate, there’s not much to hold on to with the Detroit defense.

Cash – Golladay, Stafford, Hockenson

GPP – Swift, Jones

Falcons – Pace is 3rd

QB – It had been a couple weeks since we had seen a huge game from Matt Ryan but he shredded the Vikings defense for over 370 yards and four touchdowns. That same outcome might no be terribly likely this week, but that doesn’t mean he’s not in play. It is true that Detroit is 12th in passing DVOA but they are only average as far as DK points go. Ryan is second in passing yards in the league, has the most intended air yards and is over 65% in the completion rate.

Much like Stafford, Ryan needs volume because his 0.37 points per drop back is only 25th in football. Fortunately for him, the Falcons sit third in passing attempts per game so he gets all the attempts he needs. It’s not a huge surprise his best games this season have come in great matchups and with Julio Jones active and healthy. The matchup isn’t as good as the Vikings last week, but Julio is healthy so Ryan lands as an option. I do prefer Stafford for a cheaper price.

RB – If Ryan is disappointing this week, one reason could be Todd Gurley. He draws a matchup against the 30th ranked rushing DVOA defense and the Lions sit 29th in rushing yards allowed per game. Gurley is seventh in carries overall and is second in RZ attempts. Now, the targets haven’t really been there for him so far since he only has a 7.2% target share. He needs a great matchup and touchdown equity to pay off. Since this is a similar matchup to the Panthers and Gurley scored 28 DK in that game, I could see a game just like that. He’s likely underpriced in this spot and if the attention goes to the passing games, he may be overlooked as well. Underpriced and overlooked is music to our ears.

WR – With Jones still being cheaper than Calvin Ridley, it’s hard to not go right back to the well. Jones proved pretty easily he was healthy with a massive 35+ DK point game and scoring two touchdowns. Ridley is a player that can be a bit of a buzz kill if you roster Jones. The younger receiver has the lead in RZ targets at nine and EZ targets at eight, both in the top five in the league. Julio does draw a tougher matchup on paper with Amani Oruwariye but this is Julio. The 1.40 points per target is 13th in football but it doesn’t scare me at all. Ridley has the easier spot against rookie Jeff Okudah who has scuffled so far. Okudah is playing about 55% of the snaps and has allowed a 13.4 yards per reception. Playing both receivers with Ryan would cost a pretty penny, but there is certainly a pathway to it paying off in a major way.

*Friday Update* Desmond Trufant is out for the Lions, which is a hit for their corner depth

TE – It’s really been hit or miss for Hayden Hurst, as he has four games under double digit DK points and two above 15. A 35-yard touchdown in garbage time saved his day last week, otherwise he was looking at another 3/21/0 line. The 12% target share isn’t awful but three RZ targets through six games isn’t helpful either. Detroit really hasn’t played good tight ends yet, but the 10/96/2 line through five games is impressive nonetheless. With the offense healthy, I’m likely to skip Hurst.

D/ST – Since the Falcons give up over 30 points per game, you really need to rely on turnovers and sacks but they have 16 total. That’s not terrible, but I don’t think they’re the ideal punt. Stafford has only been sacked 12 times and the pressure rate is 14th in the league.

Cash – Julio, Gurley, Ridley

GPP – Ryan, Hurst

Browns at Bengals, O/U of 50 (Browns -3.5)

Browns – Pace is 21st

QB – This might be one of my favorite games on the slate to stack up because the majority of the players are cheaper than they should be and we have a high total. I will certainly prefer the other quarterback, but you can sort of argue that Baker Mayfield is in play here. He’s coming off a terrible game that he left early with the rib injury but he had thrown two touchdowns in each of the previous four games. The Bengals are only 16th in passing DVOA and are giving up about 250 passing yards per game.

Make no mistake, the Browns are run-first team and that tends to be why I’m not particularly on Mayfield. The Bengals are 10th in pace so maybe he can get a few more attempts in, but the 0.41 points per drop back are only 22nd in the league. Mayfield is also only 26th in passing yards and 21st in attempts. He can have a game like Philip Rivers did las week where Rivers threw for 371 and three scores, but the Bengals also jumped out to a 21-0 lead in that one. I wouldn’t expect the same script here.

RB – If last week was about the toughest matchup Kareem Hunt could have, this week is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Bengals have allowed the third-most rushing yards to the position and are 23rd in DVOA. One reason they’re a bit lower in DK points given up is only four rushing scores. The Browns have a 32/20 ratio of run to pass inside the RZ, so Hunt could reverse that trend this week.

In the three games without Nick Chubb, Hunt has 49 total touches and that included just 11 in the Dallas game. The Browns were clearly nursing him through that contest and they unleashed him the following week with 23 touches against Indy. With this game being competitive or the Browns likely to lead, it’s the perfect get right spot for Hunt. He already has a game with 101 total yards and two touchdowns against Cincy this year, and that was with Chubb.

WR – If Odell Beckham can bother to keep his cleats on this game, he might be able to actually produce something. His antics are honestly going a little bit tiresome. It was one thing when he was dominant in New York. I’s another when he’s been a shell of himself in Cleveland and isn’t done much of anything. Beckham has only been over 75 yards receiving once this season and does not have more than five receptions in any game. The 25% target share and the 37.8% air yards share should be leading to much more than the WR19 in fantasy. Bengals corner William Jackson has been solid with a 57.6% catch rate allowed and only 1.70 points per target.

Jarvis Landry has been hurt but his production hasn’t been anything to write home about either. Like Beckham, he’s yet to have more than five receptions and has only been over 61 yards one time. Rashard Higgins has suddenly found himself on the field for 55% and 60% of the snaps the past two weeks, but has only earned five targets. Even with a score last week, he put up 8.3 DK.

*Friday Update* Jackson is out for the Bengals, which does help the outlook of Beckham just a little bit

TE – I’m not entirely sure that Austin Hooper’s price has come up fast enough. Over the past three weeks, he’s the leader in targets on the Browns at a 25.3% rate and has the most receptions on top of it. Hooper only has one touchdown on the year, but his rapport with Mayfield seems to be growing in a hurry. He’s still quite cheap and the Bengals have given up the third-most yards to the position. Hooper does only have one RZ target in the past three weeks (OBJ has five) but I really like the price here and he’s an option in all formats.

*Friday Update* Hooper had his appendix removed and David Njoku is in play at minimum price. I don’t believe I’d trust him in cash, but he’s an interesting part of a game stack.

D/ST – Even with the high total, the Browns might be my favorite defense. Cincy has allowed the second-most sacks and Cleveland has 14. Myles Garrett has been a terror so far and the Browns also have 12 total turnovers. They allow a lot of points, but who doesn’t anymore? We chase splash plays under $3,000 and the Browns check those boxes for me.

Cash – Hunt

GPP – Mayfield, Njoku, Beckham, Landry

Bengals – Pace is 10th

QB – When the leader in passing attempts is $5,500 squaring off against the 19th ranked DVOA passing defense, you better believe I’m interested. Joe Burrow has really only had one dud game against the Ravens, so that can be excused. He has eight total touchdowns with two coming on the ground and the last time he saw the Browns, he threw the ball 61 times. That’s not likely to repeat, but with the volume Burrow gets you can live with the 0.33 points per drop back, 30th in football.

One of the scariest elements of playing Burrow is the completion rate when pressured. It’s 35th in the league at 22.4% and if Cleveland can get pressure, it’s likely to be a long day. The good news is Burrow is now 11th in being pressured on the season, where he was top five most of the way so far. Even some small improvements from the Cincy offensive line would be huge. The spot is great as Cleveland has given up the fourth-most passing yards and are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns. Bridgewater is the safer cash play, but Burrow with some receivers and a Cleveland run back is a fantastic GPP play this week.

RB – Regardless of who’s the starter for the Bengals, I’m in. Joe Mixon is questionable with an injury that forced him from Sunday’s game, so I’d say there’s a chance that he misses this game. If he does, Gio Bernard is chalk in cash games without fail. Cleveland hasn’t done the best stopping the run, ranking 20th in run DVOA and allowing seven rushing touchdowns. They have held the rushing yards in check at 443 yards through six weeks, but you wonder if that’s been more luck than anything else.

Mixon has been the definition of a workhorse this year with the most attempts of any back with six games played and he’s had 16.5% of the targets the past three weeks. Perhaps the Bengals coaching staff realized that there wasn’t much of a reason to use Gio ahead of him in the passing game. Either back is too cheap in this game, and hopefully Mixon is active.

*Friday Update* Mixon has been ruled out and Gio is chalk in cash and I’m fine playing him in GPP as well. He’ll get at least 15 touches in this spot at $4,500.

WR – Since Week 3, it’s been mostly the Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd show as far as targets go. They have combined for 46.2% of the targets and a massive 63.3% of the air yards in this offense. Yes, A.J. Green came to life a little bit last week but I’m not overly excited about one game when he had a combined 39 yards receiving in his previous three. Boyd and Higgins are incredibly cheap and in these last four games, Higgins has four each RZ and EZ targets, both leading the team. Boyd does have zero of those targets but makes up for it in the PPR settings on DK.

Boyd is in the slot about 75% of the time and will avoid Denzel Ward. Higgins does have his hands full with Ward, who has allowed only a 1.20 points per target. Higgins plays more outside but Burrow has really developed a chemistry with him. Higgins has exceeded double-digit DK for four weeks straight and Boyd only has one game under that mark. It almost seems too easy to stack them up in this game.

TE – With the emergence of Higgins and Mixon in the passing game, Drew Sample has exactly nine targets in the past four weeks. He’s only had more than two receptions once, so I believe we can cross him off the list fairly easily. The numbers just don’t support the play.

D/ST – Mayfield is tied for the fourth-most interceptions on the season and Cincy only allows an average of 25 points. The main issues I have is the pressure rate of under 17% and only 10 sacks on the year. I would prefer the Browns unit on the other side.

Cash – Gio, Boyd, Higgins, Burrow

GPP – Green

Packers at Texans, O/U of 57 (Packers -3.5)

Packers – Pace is 32nd

QB – We continue our string of very stackable games and start with Aaron Rodgers. I’d like to take this time to apologize to the Tampa defense, and I could not have been more wrong about the Packers being able to score on them. You don’t see Rodgers get dominated in that fashion very often, but that could work in out favor a bit. The casual part of the field won’t go right back to Rodgers but we absolutely should. He’s fifth in points per drop back at 0.57 and that’s been without his top receiver for the majority of the season.

Houston is 20th in pass DVOA and have allowed 13 touchdowns to just one interception so far. Rodgers is still tied for fifth in touchdown passes and will be quite angry coming into this game. The matchup is perfect for him and the price came down after the disaster that was last week. Load right back up on him this week and his eighth-most red zone attempts.

RB – I’ll tell you right now, Aaron Jones will be in the Core Four. Houston is down to 28th in run DVOA after getting destroyed by Derrick Henry and lead the league in rushing yards allowed to backs by a whopping 151 yards. No team has allowed more rushing scores than the eight Houston has and Jones has 15 RZ attempts to go with his 93 total touches through five games. He’s just a lock in lineups and boasts something that Henry really doesn’t – pass catching. Jones is 14th in receptions among running backs but only Chris Carson and Kamara are ahead of him with five games played. His 17.1% target share is third on the team and his nine RZ and five EZ targets both lead the Packers. He’s a perfect fit and is my first building block of cash lineups this week, ahead of even Kamara (though I’m aiming for both).

*Friday Update* Jones has popped up with a calf injury and that is scary. I almost hope they sit him so I’m not tempted, and Jamaal Williams would be a great play in his stead. Offensive lineman David Bakhtiari is doubtful, which doesn’t help but Williams is too cheap to get hung up.

*Saturday Update* Jones is not expected to suit up and I suspect Williams will be chalky in cash.

WR – It wasn’t a pretty game but Davante Adams came back and A. got 10 targets and B. seemingly got out of the game with no setbacks. That’s always vitally important with a hammy injury in a receiver and he passed that test. In his two fully healthy games, Adams has 27 targets and is still rocking a 29.7% target share overall. He will likely be shadowed by Texans corner Bradley Roby but his coverage might be a bit overblown. He’s allowed 2.00 points per target, a 109.6 passer rating and four touchdowns. There’s nothing to really point me towards downgrading Adams at all.

The only other receiver worth looking at is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s not having anything approaching a great year, but he does have an 18.3% target share and leads the Packers in air yards share at 37.5%. The 18.7 aDOT is the highest among receivers with at least 20 targets, so it’s no secret where he goes on the field. It’s only going to take one deep ball for this play to pay off and the Texans secondary isn’t anything to concern ourselves with. Stix is also on him, so you know he’s a good play.

TE – No offense to Robert Tonyan because he’s in the NFL and I’m not, but it’s no surprise he cam crashing down to Earth this past week. He’s had one week where he’s seen more than five targets, and he scored three touchdowns on six targets in an island game. With Adams back in the fold, there’s not going to be a lot of work to go around. He only has an 11% target share on the season and only four each of RZ and EZ looks. Tonyan needs to score to be relevant and I think there are better plays within $600 of his salary each way.

D/ST – They are slightly pricey for my taste, but I could see the Packers pay off here. They do rank 29th in total DVOA but they also have 12 sacks and Houston is top five in pressure allowed to go along with 19 sacks given up. If they can neutralize Will Fuller with Jaire Alexander, it could lead to a lower scoring day for Houston.

Cash – Jones, Adams, Rodgers

GPP – MVS, Tonyan

Texans – Pace is 9th

QB – It sure looks like Deshaun Watson is happy that he’s got a new coach because he’s been lights out in the past two games. Watson has thrown for 694 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions and has kicked in 51 rushing yards. You certainly wouldn’t bank on Houston stopping Green Bay and the Texans are already ninth in pace. What might be the most surprising aspect of Watson this week – he posted 35 DK points last week and his salary went down. Thank you very much, DK.

Even with some uneven coaching this year, Watson is still inside the top 10 in points per drop back at 0.54 and we hope to see him keep climbing from his 22 RZ attempts so far this year. The Packers are 25th in pass DVOA but they have been good production-wise. They’ve only allowed roughly 231 passing yards per game and nine touchdowns. That’s well and good, but Watson is a game breaker and should be heavily considered in this game at his salary.

RB – Even with Watson going off the past two weeks, David Johnson has stayed heavily involved with 39 total touches. He’s not going anywhere and the Packers can be had on the ground. They match the 25th ranked pass DVOA with a 25th run DVOA and Green Bay has allowed the most DK points per game this year. Backs have rolled up nine total touchdowns and over 100 yards per game. You’re never totally happy clicking on Johnson, but this style of volume doesn’t come this cheap all that often. DJ is well in play in GPP and could be a very overlooked play in this game stack.

WR – The biggest question in this game is what to do with Fuller. He’s been great so far, with a 21% target share but 32.6% of the air yards and a 14.1 aDOT. Alexander remains a serious issue on the other side, considering he just helped hold Mike Evans to 1/10/0. I think this is a good time to strategically fade Fuller, since Alexander has a 4.3 40-yard dash and can probably run with him. If Fuller doesn’t have a long score (still very possible), I think he flops at this salary.

That means we should be looking at Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb if we believe Fuller gets negated. Cooks is absolutely my preferred play since he’s seen a massive spike the past two weeks. He’s turned 21 targets into 17/229/2 and remains an absolute bargain for that volume. Cooks leads by two targets and has a healthy 27.3% air yard share himself. Cobb has just 10 targets, but that could uptick if you follow the game script and he’d be a sneaky way to double stack the receivers with Watson.

TE – Darren Fells has made the most of Jordan Akins being out, scoring twice in two games and totaling 142 yards. It remains to be seen if Akins is back this week, and it’s also important to remember Akins was easily out-snapping Fells when healthy. Green Bay has been solid to the position through five games with only 271 yards allowed and one score, but either Fells or Akins is in play depending on the injury situation.

*Update* Akins didn’t practice again on Thursday

D/ST – I just can’t see it. I’m hard pressed to think Rodgers turns it over like he did last week, and Houston has four turnovers in four games. They do have 16 sacks with a 20.2% pressure rate, but Rodgers has only been pressured 16% of the time. These guys aren’t the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Cash – Watson, Cooks, Johnson

GPP – Fuller, Cobb, Akins or Fells

Cowboys at Washington, O/U of 46 (Washington -1)

Cowboys – Pace is 1st

QB – To be frank, the Cowboys are a hot mess. They’re 2-4, we have anonymous players sniping at the coaching staff, the franchise QB is lost for the season and the offensive line is unrecognizable. You could say that this is a bit of a get right spot since Washington is poor as well, but Andy Dalton didn’t drape himself in glory on Monday night. He threw two picks and it took him 54 attempts to throw for 266 yards.

Again, that’s not all his fault. Two Ezekiel Elliott fumbles put them in a pretty bad spot but Dalton did nothing to help dig them out. Washington is actually the sixth-best pass DVOA defense and they’ve really done well through the air. They’ve only given up the ninth-fewest passing yards and have a 10:7 TD:INT ratio. What’s killed their DK scores is 200 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to the QB. Dalton isn’t a threat in that department and the salary makes no sense to me, so he’s basically a fade.

RB – The good news for Zeke? He led the team in targets with 11 (!!) which is basically Kamara level. He did still have 20 touches but produced just 80 total yards with no touchdowns and two fumbles. He’s down to under 69 yards rushing per game, which is not what you expect from Zeke. Dallas currently ranks sixth in run blocking as a unit and has the 12th lowest stuffed rate in football. Dallas continues to be the top dog in terms of pace, but I feel like we don’t need to get to Zeke this week since Jones and Kamara are cheaper and are just in so much better spots.

*Friday Update* Guard Zack Martin is out, lessening the appeal for Zeke.

WR – We now have one full game with Dalton under our belts but the receiving pecking order now looks about the same as it ever was. Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper were fed 11 targets while Michael Gallup saw six. Cooper and Gallup did have the only RZ and EZ targets of the trio but Lamb and Cooper both worked closer to the line of scrimmage. That’s likely to be important since the offensive line is down so many players. What doesn’t make a lick of sense to me is the playing time for Lamb. He’s been under 70% of the snaps for two weeks now and that is just foolish. Maybe the players saying the coaches are trash aren’t exactly wrong.

Lamb gets a solid matchup, if he sees most of Jimmy Moreland. He’s allowed a 73.3% catch rate while Cooper sees Ronald Darby. That’s a great spot for Cooper since Darby has let up a 103.9 passer rating and 20.3 yards per reception. The salaries got it right in this game and I’d be a good deal more interested in Cooper and Lamb than Gallup (who sees Kendall Fuller, the best corner in Washington).

TE – It started to look like Dalton Schultz was on his way to a big game but he went quiet in the second half. His five targets were fifth on the team and ideally, Dalton is not throwing over 50 times very often. Dak was able to sustain everyone. I don’t believe that to be the case for Dalton and the only reason to really look into Schultz is the matchup. Washington has struggled, allowing the fifth-most DK points per game to tight ends. That includes five touchdowns and the fourth-most yards.

D/ST – If they weren’t $3,000, I could see the case with Kyle Allen on the other side. As it stands, this defense is giving up the most points per game and only has three turnovers on the year.

Cash – Cooper, Lamb

GPP – Zeke, Schultz, Gallup, Dalton

Washington – Pace is 8th

QB – You know your defense has hit bottom when I’m actually debating Allen for cash games at just $5,200. So far, he’s completed 40 of 55 attempts and has three total touchdowns to two turnovers. That ratio isn’t anything great but you get what you pay for at this rung of salary. He really wasn’t that bad against the Giants and the Cowboys are the ninth-worst team in DK points per game. Dallas is also all the way down at 21st for pass DVOA and there’s not much reason to fear them. If you’re in absolute love with your lineup, I think Allen is an acceptable punt in cash games.

RB – Why does Washington hate Antonio Gibson? After seeing his snaps ramp up for three straight weeks, he went back down under 40% this past week and got 13 touches. It was the first time in two weeks that he was under double-digit carries, which isn’t exactly the best sign. His route percentage is 35th in the league at 36.7% but despite all the negatives, I’ll admit I have interest in GPP. I want that blow up game from Gibson and Dallas might well represent that. They rank 29th in run DVOA and are now second in rushing yards allowed to the running backs. The seven touchdowns is tied for the second-most but you just can’t trust him in cash.

On the cheaper side, J.D. McKissic has seen a least six targets in three straight games and he actually carried the ball eight times last game, most on the season. If he gets another 14 touches this week, there’s a strong chance he can hit the 3x multiplier that we look for. He’s one of my favorite RB fliers this week that could really flop or really hit big.

WR – Regardless of where you land on Allen, Terry McLaurin is a dynamite play all the way around. He owns a 27.5% target share and a massive 45.1% air yards share, second in the league. He’s still under $6,000 on DK which feels like stealing and only has one true dud game against Jalen Ramsey. I don’t think the matchup is going to get tougher this week since Dallas has allowed the fifth-most yards and second-most touchdowns to the position. The matchup with Trevon Diggs is quite appealing since he’s allowed a 101.8 passer rating and a 15.3 yards per reception.

You can even talk me into Dontrelle Inman as a dart throw. He only has a 12.8% target share but his price is so low and the matchup is so good, he’s worth a share or two if playing a bunch of lineups.

TE – After weeks of not even really glancing at Logan Thomas, he found the end zone last week and put up 13.2 DK points. In fairness, he does lead the team in RZ targets at six and EZ targets at three. The 17.1% target share is solid, as is the 21.2% air yard share. The Cowboys have allowed three scores to the position, but I would reserve Thomas for game stacks only. Allen/McLaurin/Thomas with a Dallas run back is an option, and a cheap one at that.

D/ST – I honestly don’t mind Washington. True, half of their sacks came in Week 1 against the Eagles but the common theme is he offensive lines were really rough. Washington gets pressure over 22% of the time and Dalton was brought down three times Monday night. Additionally, Washington is fourth in DVOA overall and only allows 26 points per game.

Cash – McLaurin, Allen, D/ST

GPP – Thomas, Inman

Steelers at Titans, O/U 50.5 (Titans -1.5)

Steelers – Pace is 31st

QB – Ben Roethlisberger is sort of like Matthew Stafford. The gunslinger reputation hasn’t exactly shown up so far since Big Ben is just 24th in attempts on the year. Even with the bye factored in, Pittsburgh is 25th in attempts per game. Roethlisberger is still playing at a high level with the seventh-best on target rate and an 11:1 TD:INT ratio but he hasn’t been a monster for fantasy quite yet. He’s been average in points per drop back at 0.48, just 16th in the league.

Perhaps the biggest factor in Roethlisberger’s fantasy mediocrity has been the deep ball. He’s a respectable 13th in attempts at 22 total but the 31.8% completion rate is 28th in the league. The RZ completion rate is 25th in league as well, which is crazy when considering he has 11 touchdowns. He is fourth in passer rating and just like it has been for weeks, it seems like he’s on the cusp of a monster game. The Titans are allowing the seventh-most DK points per game, including 28th in yards allowed per game and the 24th ranked pass DVOA. With 13 passing TD’s allowed in five games, the matchup is there for Roethlisberger.

RB – As someone who thought James Conner might need to be on the bench at the start of the year, I’m here to tell you he’s shut me up. Since Week 1 when he missed most of the game with an ankle Conner has 79 touches in four games. He’s hit at least 15 DK in all four and above 20 in three of them, while hitting 100 yards or more in three and scoring in all four. His salary went down after another 20.2 DK last week and Tennessee is 16th in run DVOA. They’ve also allowed six total touchdowns and rank 26th in rushing yards per game. Mike Vrabel has done a great job overall as coach, but the Patriots defenses of old this isn’t.

WR – Here we are again and I’m back on Diontae Johnson. I think at worst, he’ll be the number two target in this game for Big Ben and even then, that’s if Chase Claypool maintains his number one status. Before Johnson got hurt, he led the Steelers in targets and was sitting inside the top three in target share. Yes, it was only a couple weeks but it was impressive. He still has an 18.4% target shared and is only two targets off the team lead despite basically missing three games. He is far too cheap with a 23.8% air yards share, and the disappearance of JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely to get worse. He only played 65% of the snaps on Sunday, with Johnson out. Yikes.

Claypool is going to be tough to gauge overall. Look, he Steelers certainly can’t put the genie back in the bottle. He’s outplayed JuJu badly and is likely the 1A target with Johnson. In the past three games, Claypool leads with 15 targets and a gargantuan 52.7% air yards share. His size and speed combo is going to give corners fits. He has six inches on both Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson. Butler ran a 4.6 40-yard dash while Jackson clocked in at 4.4, so at least Jackson can run with him. Still, the size is a problem. It’s easy to stack Claypool and Johnson and get a good chunk of the passing game here. With Jackson playing for the first time this year, it’s tougher to tell how the corners will be deployed but we don’t fear them. Call me a homer, but Johnson and Claypool could be a poor man’s Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

*Friday Update* Jackson is not guaranteed to be back, and the Titans will decide on Saturday.

TE – It looked like maybe Eric Ebron was settling into his role and seeing more targets, then Sunday happened and he saw two all day. Some of that can be chalked up to the score, but it was a little surprising with Johnson still missing. Ebron’s target share of 14.6% really isn’t that bad but he has all of two RZ targets and one EZ look. I’d prefer my “TD or bust” tight ends to be a bit more involved where it counts. he only good news for Ebron is Tennessee has allowed four scores to the position and the second-most yards among teams with five games played.

D/ST – Losing Devin Bush for the year is a monster blow to this linebacking corps and the defense overall. With how efficient the Titans are and only turning it over three times so far, I’m passing at this high of a price.

Cash – Johnson, Claypool, Conner

GPP – Big Ben, Ebron ….JuJu I guess. That 65% of the snaps has me spooked, to be frank.

Titans – Pace is 4th

QB – One of the strongest cases to fire Jets coach Adam Gase isn’t the actual state of the Jets, it’s Ryan Tannehill. He’s racked up 40 total touchdowns in 15 games as Tennessee’s starter and now ranks third in points per drop back at 0.59. The 43.6% completion rate under pressure is 17th, which is passable. That’s a big deal against the Steelers generally since they lead the league in pressure rate and sacks at 24. The QB hurry percent is the best in football as well at 17.7% so Tannehill will have his work cut out for him.

Pittsburgh is also eighth in yards allowed per game and eighth in pass DVOA. Tannehill has hit a least 26 DK in three of five games, so his ceiling is much higher than perceived. With the Steelers blitzing 46.3% of the time, it might only take a couple plays to burn them. Tannehill isn’t a primary target but is tied for fifth in touchdowns thrown with 13 and has a rushing score as well. He could be quite sneaky in this game if the defense struggles without Bush.

RB – This is the immovable object meets the irresistible force, since Derrick Henry is the rushing leader and the Steelers allow the second-fewest rush yards per game by two yards. No team has allowed fewer yards to running backs, as Pittsburgh has allowed just 274 yards (one game fewer than Tampa). Henry has an 86 yard lead on Clyde Edwards-Helaire but CEH has six games. Dalvin Cook is the closest to Henry with five games played and Henry has over 100 yards on Cook. I’m willing to take a couple shots at Henry since A. his salary barely moved and he’s next to the more popular Kamara and Jones and B. if there’s a time to get to Pittsburgh, it’s now while Bush misses his first full game.

WR – A.J. Brown has only played in three games but has the team lead in target share at 22%. He’s only five targets behind Jonnu Smith for the raw target lead and has a 31.9% air yard share to go with his six RZ targets and three EZ targets. Steelers corner Joe Haden will be no picnic with a catch rate allowed under 50%, a passer rating of 80.5 and just a 1.40 points per target. I’m not a huge fan of Brown but he is very talented and could make me look dumb.

*Update* Brown went from full practice Wendesday to DNP on Thurday, which needs to be monitored.

*Friday Update* Brown has no injury designation and is ready to roll. For the Steelers, Hilton is out so that hurts the secondary a bit.

Deciding if you want a piece of Corey Davis or Adam Humphries depends on what you think happens with Henry. If he can keep it going, neither wideout is likely to be majorly involved. If he can’t Humphries especially could be an extension of the running game out of the slot. He has the lowest aDOT of the trio at 8.4 and boasts four RZ targets. Davis should see Steven Nelson, who is at a 2.20 points per target and a 111.7 passer rating allowed. Humphries squares off against Mike Hilton, who is virtually identical to Nelson in those metrics. I slightly prefer Davis, but again only if you think Henry has a slow day.

TE – I’m leaning towards thinking Jonnu Smith plays this week since he was limited on Wednesday. The Steelers have been stout to the position with just 218 yards and one score but Smith is different. He’s a huge, athletic player who can give anyone issues. Smith leads in EZ targets and has five scores on just 29 targets, which isn’t likely to sustain. The flip side is Tannehill is third in pass attempts off play action this year and that makes it easy for Smith to find some holes in the defense. Don’t think for a second they won’t target the linebackers here with Smith.

D/ST – With the mix of the Titans only having seven sacks and the Steelers only giving up eight, it’ll be hard to find a path to success here. They have gotten better for the pressure rate at 20.8% but even last week when the Steelers were down David DeCastro, it didn’t hurt too badly. Big Ben is only in the pocket for 2.2 second on average, the fifth-fastest time.

Cash – I think Henry and Brown have a floor, but I’m not playing them in cash

GPP – Tannehill, Smith, Davis, Humphries

Buccaneers at Raiders, O/U is N/A

Buccaneers – Pace is 16th

QB – Tom Brady enters this game coming off two very poor games for fantasy, with a combined 28 DK points. It’s hard to remember Week 4 when he threw five touchdowns against the Chargers, but Brady is still 12th in passing yards on the year. It’s also tough to get a true gauge on him with the amount of injuries the Bucs have had at the skill positions.

Brady is only 24th in completion rate under pressure, but he’s also 30th in pressure rate so that’s not a huge hang-up. Also, he’s only 19th in points per drop back and that’s despite having 14 touchdowns on the year. It’s a little odd to see the Raiders tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed but Vegas allows 22 DK points per game. Brady is a fine option, but the Buccaneers defense has typically made it difficult for him to hit the ceiling.

RB – I’m typically a Bruce Arians fan, but I kind of want to smack him right now. Ronald Jones has rolled up three straight 100+ yard rushing games, and yet Leonard Fournette is due to receive his “normal workload”. With Jones being the most expensive he’s been all season, I can’t play him in cash though I would love to. Vegas is 31st in DVOA against the run and they’ve given up over 800 total yards to running backs and eight touchdowns. Someone is going to have a big game here. The best play here is if you run multiple lineups, play a little of each player. Fournette is pretty cheap and this game likely doesn’t garner a ton of attention since it wasn’t on the slate to start with.

WR – So far in the three games Chris Godwin has been active, Mike Evans has exactly 10 targets. In those games, Brady has thrown 101 times and Evans has played at least 78% of the snaps every time. That’s…not ideal and really leaves me leery. Godwin has pretty clearly been the number one option when he’s available so even though the salary is close, the appeal is not. Godwin doesn’t have the best matchup on paper since he should likely see some of Lamarcus Joyner who has the fourth-best points per target at 1.10. I’m not exceptionally excited about playing him, but you certainly can. Evans almost has to score to work out and his matchup against Nevin Lawson is a mismatch. Lawson is only 5’9″ so Evans has a big advantage on him. I would not be super excited about Scotty Miller since this isn’t projected to shootout.

TE – It’s possible that Rob Gronkowski is getting his rhythm back with 24 targets over the past four games. It’s still not a consistent play since he has 15/207/1 in those four games but the price is fair for Gronkowski. The Raiders are only giving up 10.6 DK points per contest and only two scores, so Gronkowski isn’t a super strong play to me.

D/ST – All things being equal, the Bucs might be my favorite defense on the entire slate. They are the number one defense overall in DVOA, eighth-best scoring defense, 22 sacks and 11 turnovers. With the entire Raiders offensive line on the Covid list, it’s hard to see how the Bucs don’t feast with their 41.4% blitz rate and 28.3% pressure rate.

Cash – D/ST, Godwin

GPP – Jones, Fournette, Brady, Evans, Gronkowski

Raiders – Pace is 24th

QB – If I love the Bucs defense, I’m not likely to be on board with the Raiders offense and Derek Carr is no exception. He’s been playing extremely well with 1,442 passing yards through five games, second-most among QB’s who have five games. The on target rate is only behind Russell Wilson and he’s only thrown one interception to 11 touchdowns. The Bucs are one of only two teams to have more interceptions than they’ve given up passing touchdowns, so I’m passing on Carr with Burrow right there. That’s not even mentioning that Tampa is fist in DVOA against the pass.

RB – It’s almost the same story for Josh Jacobs. I would normally be interested since he’s fourth in carries and tied for seventh-most in red zone carries. Tampa has the best run defense in football, sit third in DVOA and are under 300 rushing yards to the backs in six games. Now, they have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to backs and with the offensive line out, maybe Jacobs gets more work in the passing game. He has 15 receptions but that’s a lot to pay for a player that has limited upside.

WR – I can’t find much of a reason to chase Hunter Renfrow and he only has a 13.8% target share. Henry Ruggs is the only player that is even worth an MME shot, with a 21.5 aDOT and speed to get behind any corner. The Carlton Davis matchup doesn’t help him on paper. He’s only allowed a 56 passer rating on 44 targets but he does only run a 4.5 40-yard dash. Ruggs should be virtually un-rostered and is an MME option only with a floor of zero.

TE – Darren Waller is quickly off the board for me as well. He’s over $6,000 and even though he’s having a good season, he’s only hit 3x at this price point once and it took 12 receptions. The 28.1% target share and 22.6% air yards share is normally very appealing, especially at tight end. If he was a little cheaper I might want to chase garbage time but that’s too rich for my blood. Tampa has only given up two touchdowns and the top half in yardage.

D/ST – The Raiders only have seven sacks on the season and three turnovers while giving up 29 points. I’ll pass there.

Cash – None

GPP – Ruggs, Waller, Jacobs but only in MME

Seahawks at Cardinals, O/U of 56 (Seahawks -3.5)

Seahawks – Pace is 23rd

QB – Russell Wilson exits the bye week and is the highest salaried player on the slate, and how can he not be? He still leads the NFL in touchdown passes, is averaging over 300 yards per game and has kicked in 30 rushing yards per game as well. He’s been on target 83.9% of the time and that leads the NFL, along with his points per drop back that’s 0.70 and that’s top as well. There’s no reason not to play Wilson until this streak stops and the Cardinals 10th ranked pass DVOA doesn’t scare me at all. Fire away in all formats, though I won’t spend this far up in cash.

RB – With all the attention on the passing game and Russ, Chris Carson has really flown under the radar so far this year. He has 61 rushing attempts and sits eighth in receptions among running backs. Carson has almost 65% of the attempts from running backs on the team and 10 RZ attempts. That’s not something you want to write home about but the receptions and carries are keeping him in play every single week. Arizona is 10th in rush DVOA but they have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards so far, over 100 yards per game. Carson falls into a no-man’s land for salary and is a potential stacking option.

WR – There’s only a handful of receivers more expensive than D.K. Metcalf and it’s not hard to see why. He’s an absolute man-child and has a touchdown or 100 yards in every single game. His low score is 17.6 so far and he actually has the target lead over Tyler Lockett by one. The air yards aren’t particularly close at 45.2% and the aDOT is a massive discrepancy as well at 16.8 to 9.2. While I do think Metcalf has a lower floor than we’ve seen with the fourth-most deep targets in football but it’s hard to not believe in him right now every week. He likely doesn’t draw Patrick Peterson (I wouldn’t care if he did) but he gets Dre Kirkpatrick who only has a 1.40 points per snap.

Lockett is slated to face Byron Murphy who has been solid so far. He’s been targeted 46 times and only given up 286 yards with an 80.5 passer rating and 1.30 points per target. Lockett has really slowed down the past two games with a total of just nine targets and 83 yards. Perhaps he was a little dinged up but at salary, I prefer Metcalf. I will say Lockett is too good to be quiet for long.

TE – Greg Olsen will pop up and score a random touchdown now and again, but his 11.8% target rate isn’t really enough to want to play him any given week. He’s fourth in the pecking order for targets and even though he is tied for the team lead in RZ targets, he has scored just once this year. Arizona has shored up their issues against the position and only allowed two touchdowns thus far.

D/ST – Safety Jamal Adams is due back and they do have seven interceptions, but I can’t say I’m excited about them. They’re 26th in overall DVOA and don’t have a ton going for them.

*Friday Update* Adams is not ready to play so I’m not looking at Seattle at all.

Cash – Russ, Carson, Metcalf

GPP – Lockett

Cardinals – Pace is 6th

QB – It really says something about a QB when he can not complete 10 passes in a game and still score 28.9 DK points, and that’s what we saw from Kyler Murray Monday night. He was…well, roundly awful in the passing game and only threw for 188 yards. However, 80 of them went to Christian Kirk and he rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown. There’s plenty to pick at if we’re just talking about being a quarterback for Murray.

He’s only 14th in passing yards and has played six full games. His counter part in Russ has one fewer game but more passing yards, for instance. Murray’s on target rate is 28th in the league but the points per drop back is second in part due to the 12.7 yards on scrambles. Murray leads the position in rushing yards and has hit pay dirt six times already, accounting for 30.3% of the RZ attempts this year. He’s along the lines of Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson where the passing numbers are almost secondary with his Konami code legs. The second year QB is in play in all formats, and is likely as high as I go salary-wise.

RB – I’m really not friends with Kenyan Drake at this juncture. He’s been one of the most frustrating fantasy players on the season and then on a showdown slate, he rips off a 69-yard score to cap a 20/164/2 day. He has been completely taken out of the passing game with only eight total targets this season, so here is risk for sure. However, his salary is going to mess with me again.

Drake is cheaper than Chase Edmonds and they are both under $5,000. Seattle is tough on the ground. They sit ninth in run DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to backs so far. Additionally, backs have only scored four total touchdowns. They have allowed 35 receptions and if this game is back and forth, Edmonds is likely the better play with 13% of the targets but it’s just weird to see Drake where he is in salary.

WR – Can someone tell me what in the world happened to DeAndre Hopkins Monday? I mean, I know Kyler scuffled mightily but 2/73/0 is a wild line to turn in for Nuk in that spot. Fortunately for him, he gets right back on the horse against the Seahawks, who have the 29th pass DVOA and still have allowed the most yards to receivers despite the bye week. They are at 108 receptions allowed and no other team is over 90 yet. Seattle is a far cry from the old Legion of Boom.

Hopkins himself is still at a 31.7% target share which leads the league and he’s only five targets behind the league lead overall. Quinton Dunbar has actually not been terrible on an individual basis with a 1.50 points per target and a 74.1 passer rating allowed, but I have no fears with Hopkins in any format. Folks might want to chase Christian Kirk but understand the floor is super low. Even on Monday night, he had all of three targets. He squares off against Shaquill Griffin who has gotten scorched. Griffin has allowed a 108.9 passer rating and 2.10 points per target. Kirk is the air yards champ on the Cardinals at a 30.4% share so he’s quite viable in this environment.

*Friday Update* Hopkins is “hopeful” to play and that knocks him out of cash games with no pivot outside of Metcalf.

TE – Putting the targets for Dan Arnold and Darrell Daniels together doesn’t get them to 10%, so we can safely pass here. They also have one RZ target between them.

D/ST – Russ might get sacked the sixth-most in football, but even still there’s very little reason to go against an offense that has the most points per game and only four turnovers on the year.

Cash – Kyler

GPP – Hopkins, Kirk, Edmonds, Drake

49ers at Patriots, O/U of 43.5 (Patriots -2)

49ers – Pace is 27th

QB – If you think Jimmy Garoppolo is going to throw three touchdowns again, I guess you could make a case for him. That’s not something I would expect and don’t have a ton of interest in Jimmy G. It will be interesting to see what Bill Belichick does in this game. Does he sell out to stop the run and force Garoppolo to beat him? It’s certainly possible and honestly, I wouldn’t bet on Garoppolo in that scenario. He’s averaging under 200 yards per game (not fair since he got pulled at the half of one….but still. That’s rough). The completion rate is 23rd and the on target rate is just 19th, so that’s not much help. He might be 13th in points per drop back at 0.50 but in New England, I think we have better values to chase down. This game has the lowest O/U on the slate, including the Jets.

RB – We still need some clarity on this situation. JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon are likely to be sharing the bulk of the work, but Jeff Wilson was limited Wednesday and he could be active at least this week. When Raheem Mostert was out earlier, McKinnon was the workhorse. New England is only 18th in run DVOA and Shanahan is one of the best in the business as far as offensive game plans. After seeing Denver’s Phillip Lindsay rush for over 100 yards last week, I don’t want to dismiss this backfield out of hand. I just need to see who’s looking to be active before me make the call.

*Friday Update* Mostert is definitely out, so we’re down to only three possible options.

WR – The good news for the 49ers is Deebo Samuel is all the way back and he played over 80% of the snaps for the second week in a row. He has 14 targets and two rush attempts the past two weeks combined, which isn’t bad considering he’s the second banana in the passing attack. He’s earned a 15.7% target share in his time back and matches up against J.C. Jackson. He’s only been targeted 20 times so far but has allowed a 1.80 points per target. That means rookie Brandon Aiyuk should mostly see Stephon Gilmore and that’s not ideal. New England could have something cooked up to slow down George Kittle and maybe that leads the receivers with a little extra room. I won’t be surprised if they leave the corners on an island and use the rest of the defense to cover up Kittle the best they can. I’m not actively chasing either player, but Deebo would be my choice if any.

TE – I love Kittle, but this doesn’t seem like the spot to go after him. Not only do the Patriots mostly shut down tight ends as it is with just a 15/200/1 line, they have played Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. It’s impressive to be this good against the position against that competition. There’s virtually no doubt that Kittle is going to be the focal point of the defense and is not a wise spend up in my eyes. That’s despite 27% of the targets and 26.8% of the air yards. The three RZ targets don’t help his cause either.

D/ST – San Francisco is a fine option and I have to give them credit for only allowing 20.7 points per game with the injuries they’ve dealt with, 10th best. They also rank 11th in overall DVOA and have a combined 16 sacks/turnovers. The price isn’t anything special, so I will likely go cheaper.

Cash – None, possibly a back

GPP – Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk

Patriots – Pace is 19th

QB – After two great games to start the season, Cam Newton has slowed down a little bit with just 32 combined DK points the past two weeks. He’s been under 30 pass attempts in three of four games but has rushed for at least 47 yards in three of the four as well. It seems impossible, but Cam has only thrown two touchdowns all year and the five rushing TD’s is really saving him, as is the third-most rushing yards at the position. You basically can’t take him off the table at any point with the rushing upside and his 15 RZ attempts, but I’m not sure the 8:4 TD:INT ratio allowed by San Francisco is the right time to use him. The 49ers do rank 22nd in pass DVOA, but I’m skittish with Cam this week.

RB – One of my least favorite parts of this article is Patriots running backs. San Fran is seventh in run DVOA and have only allowed 403 rushing yards to the position in six games. They have also only allowed 23 receptions, so there’s not a weakness that really stands out. With both Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead falling under seven carries last week and under 35% of the snaps, James White is the only real option. He was targeted nine times and leads in target rate at 25%. He’s under $5,000 so there’s room for a 3x return, but it’s likely best to avoid this situation since game script isn’t a lock.

WR – With Cam not exactly lighting the world on fire as the traditional QB, it’s hard to get on board any of his pass catchers. Julian Edelman easily leads in raw targets and air yard share at 37.8% but it hasn’t resulted in a whole lot. Outside of the Seattle game, Edelman is under 14 DK in every other contest. Now, he could see some of Jamar Taylor who has given up 4.30 points per target in limited playing time but the 49ers might well move things around if Edelman starts causing issues.

N’Keal Harry is coming off a goose egg and over the last three weeks has 12 targets, which has translated to 5/55/1. Yeesh. Damiere Byrd has been slightly better at 11 receptions and over 140 yards, but neither is a major player in the offense and I don’t trust Cam right now. Matchups against Jason Verrett (0.70 points per target, 23.1 passer rating) for Byrd and Emmanuel Moseley (1.40 points per target) for Harry don’t help the cause either.

TE – No tight end has been part of the game plan in any major way thus far and there’s no reason to think it changes.

D/ST – They don’t give up a ton of points and don’t get to the quarterback an awful lot, but New England has forced 10 turnovers already. San Fran really only has four turnovers because I won’t count Nick Mullens against them, so the Pats check in a bit too expensive for me.

Cash – White

GPP – Cam, Edelman

Chiefs at Broncos, O/U of 46 (Chiefs -9.5)

Chiefs – Pace is 14th

QB – It’s kind of crazy to me that Patrick Mahomes is sitting on 17 total touchdowns to one interception and the Chiefs have one loss and nobody seems to be talking much about him. That happens when Wilson goes nuts, but Mahomes is under $7,500 and doesn’t seem to have buzz around him. Even in a game where he only threw it 26 times, he racked up 20.6 DK points. Denver is ninth in pass DVOA but does that truly matter with Mahomes? No, it doesn’t. He’s third in points per drop back at 0.59, 10th in air yards and fifth in passing yards. You don’t need me to tell you at length how good he is.

RB – Did you like seeing Clyde Edwards-Helaire royally mess up the Buffalo defense Monday? Hope so, because who knows if you see it again. Le’Veon Bell broke many fantasy hearts when he picked Kansas City (sorry Myles Gaskin but it’s fact). Bell is NOT guaranteed to be active as of this writing. If he is, I might have moderate interest at his price. Denver does sit fifth in run DVOA and have only allowed 381 rushing yards in five weeks. Still, both backs are cheaper than they likely should be. CEH is in play if Bell is out, but Bell is worth a GPP shot if active as well. If they both play, neither is a cash option.

WR – The popular thought last week was Mecole Hardman would help the loss of Sammy Watkins, but that isn’t what happened at all. Byron Pringle played almost the same amount of snaps and actually caught the ball. That really just leaves Tyreek Hill and DeMarcus Robinson as viable options in this corps. Hill should draw Bryce Callahan, who has played well. He’s only allowed 23 receptions on 37 targets for a 66.0 passer rating and a 1.20 points per target. The issue is he runs a 4.5 40-yard dash and Hill will dust that level of speed. Hill also leads the team in air yards share at 34.7% so he’s in a really good bounce back spot after a borderline invisible Monday night. Robinson faces Michael Ojemudia who has allowed two touchdowns and a 95.1 passer rating. After seeing six targets in a running game script, Robinson is awfully cheap here.

TE – If Mahomes had made an accurate throw to Travis Kelce late in that game, he’d still be running and it’s late Wednesday. No, I didn’t bet on Kelce’s yardage prop and he didn’t miss it by seven yards. Mind your business. Anyways, when you command 34.5% of the red zone looks from a top-three QB in football, you’re in play every week. Kelce leads the position in targets, receptions and yards on the season. The Broncos have allowed 244 yards and two scores, but the matchup isn’t relevant with Kelce.

D/ST – I’m not paying over $4,000 for a defense, full stop. You’re looking at KC needing to score near 14 DK to hit just 3x. They do rank ninth in overall DVOA and have a combined 22 turnovers/sacks, but it’s simply too high a price even with Denver’s struggles and injuries in my eyes.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP – Robinson, RB’s to be determined with Bell’s status

Broncos – Pace is 15th

QB – Welcome back to Drew Lock. You had to deal with The Hoodie in New England and now you get the fourth ranked pass DVOA in football. Lock was a nice sleeper pick in the offseason but he’s been hurt and only has 62 attempts. Obviously, we’re not judging just off that but it hasn’t been good either. He’s only at 425 yards passing and has one touchdown to two interceptions. KC has allowed under 20 DK per game to the position and has a 9:7 TD:INT ratio to go with the third-least passing yards per game. Lock is a pretty easy skip for me.

RB – We have another backfield that’s potentially going to be a pain because Melvin Gordon and Lindsay are both set to be active for the first time since Week 1. I can’t believe Gordon isn’t getting suspended and Denver can get all the way out of here with this “he handled his DUI well”. Gordon could have killed himself or someone else. Handling it well would be not getting behind the wheel and shame on the Broncos for pretending otherwise.

Back to the game, Gordon definitely had the edge in playing time in Week 1 and touches as well. I suspect it to be the same at about a 65%-35% split favoring Gordon. That likely leaves Lindsay with about 8-10 touches and Gordon with about 15-ish. The Chiefs are 27th in run DVOA so this is the spot to hit them, if you can keep the game close enough. They’ve given up the fifth-most rushing yards but only three scores, keeping the DK points further down than they should be. Gordon is a fine play but I may actually prefer David Johnson for $200 less.

WR – I don’t particularly understand why Tim Patrick is not yet over $5,000. He’s balled out in his opportunity even with sub-par QB play, racking up over 250 yards over the past three weeks and scoring twice. In those three weeks, he leads the team in targets and has a 35.7% air yards share to 24.6% for Jerry Jeudy. Patrick faces off against Charvarius Ward, who has allowed a 17.8 yards per reception and a 129.8 passer rating.

Jeudy has been running out of the slot about 67% of the time and that’s going to leave him on the Honey Badger for some of his snaps, Tyrann Mathieu. He’s been in the slot about 46% himself and has only allowed a 77.3 passer rating and 12 receptions so far. Jeudy is talented and the price is fine, but I still prefer Patrick here.

TE – Noah Fant looks like he’s on track to make it back this weekend and the Broncos could certainly use him. He’d be leading the team in targets the past three weeks, not Patrick if he had been active last week. The Chiefs have allowed three touchdowns to the position and haven’t even played many good ones yet. Overall, Fant has a 19.9% target share and leads the team with three RZ and two EZ targets. Being upgraded to full on Thursday is a great sign.

D/ST – I can’t play them against the Chiefs when I have Cleveland and even Cincy right there in price. Maybe if it’s an absolute blizzard in Denver, we can reconsider.

Cash – Patrick, Fant (if active)

GPP – Gordon, Jeudy, Lindsay

Jaguars at Chargers, O/U of 49 (Chargers -7.5)

Jaguars – Pace is 7th

QB – DK made another odd salary decision with Gardner Minshew, dropping his price by $500 and I don’t exactly see why. He’s hit over 20 DK in three straight games, has five touchdowns passing and one rushing and the Chargers are only 14th in DVOA against the pass. The Mustache is sixth in passing yards and has 12 total touchdowns, along with this game potentially being a shootout. The Chargers are 29th in passing yards allowed per game and Minshew ranks third in passing attempts. The Chargers are the third-best RZ defense for touchdown percentage, but even then Minshew leads the league in RZ attempts. It’s really hard to find reasons you shouldn’t be comfortable with him in any format, including cash.

RB – I’s not been the best three weeks stretch for James Robinson production-wise. His high water marks are 75 yards rushing on 17 attempts and his lone touchdown in that span saved his week last week. It’s still hard to not be interested though just because of the volume he gets. There hasn’t been a game yet where he’s had less than 13 touches, and everything else has been 15+. He’s accounted for 93.4% of the running back attempts from the Jags, the highest in football. This comes along with an 11.4% target share as well. LA is just 13th in DVOA against the run and are ninth-best in yards per game, so Robinson is far from a must. He would be a volume play that not many are on.

WR – Predicting the Jacksonville receivers has been a real pain so far. D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault are all between 34 and 38 targets each. Chark has the air yards lead and the RZ target lead at eight, so he should be the most expensive option. I’m just not sure Cole should be that far behind him. Cole has three EZ targets while Chark has five and Shenault has zero. Chark does get the “toughest” matchup with Michael Davis, who ranks ninth with a 1.30 points per target over 40 targets so far. He’s yet to allow a touchdown as well.

Cole will face Desmond King when he’s on the field, since he only has a 33.8% snap rate on the season. King has been just average at a 96.0 passer rating allowed, while Shenault will move all over the formation. His aDOT of just 5.9 really leaves him with an unstable floor, as demonstrated last week. None of these options check in as cash safe, but they are all in play with a Minshew stack.

TE – There’s not a tight end that I’m interested in here. Tyler Eifert has all of 11 receptions on the season and only one touchdown. Even if he misses the game, no backup is going to be worth going after in this passing game.

D/ST – Jacksonville is 32nd overall in DVOA, has averaged one turnover per game, has only sacked the QB five times total and gives up 30 points a contest.

Cash – Minshew

GPP – Chark, Cole, Robinson, Shenault

Chargers – Pace is 11th

QB – This game could turn into a nicely paced shootout with both teams being in the top 12 and Justin Herbert sure looks ready to take advantage. He’s quickly jumped up to $6,400 but it’s not an unfair ask. He’s averaging almost 300 yards per game and is ninth in points per drop back at 0.53. He’s already eighth on a point per game basis and has handled pressure extremely well, fifth in pressured completion rate. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season and are 32nd in DVOA against the pass. Herbert looks to be an excellent play in any formats and is especially interesting in a game stack even with the Chargers ranking 18th in pass attempts per game.

RB – Provided Justin Jackson is ready to roll, he really looks like a smash play at this price. I greatly overestimated Joshua Kelley in this offense before the bye week, as Jackson came in and had 20 touches in New Orleans. Kelley only had 12 and the snaps favored Jackson at about 60%-35%. I would see no reason why that changes this week, given that we know Coach Anthony Lynn is loyal to veterans almost to a fault. He didn’t want to budge on Herbert starting for too long, so Jackson should continue this role. The Jags are 22nd in run DVOA and have given up over 900 total yards to the position with nine touchdowns. With Jackson getting six targets in the passing game, he has the chops and the salary to love this week.

*Friday Update* Jackson is still questionable, so I’ll have shares in GPP but nothing else. Jags linebacker Myles Jack is out, which helps this running game in a big way.

*Saturday Update* The Chargers have elevated a running back off the practice squad so they are likely without Jackson this week. Kelley becomes far more interesting if that’s the case for GPP.

WR – If Keenan Allen is healthy, it’s going to be hard not to look at him in any format. He left hurt in the Saints game but has had the bye to heal up. Herbert and Allen have been a monster combo so far. Since Week 2, Allen has a 31.9% target share and a 31.7% air yards share and that’s with missing almost a full game. He’s seeing right at 11 targets per game and there’s not a corner in Jacksonville’s secondary that worries you. Allen is ridiculously cheap if he’s healthy. A Herbert/Jackson/Allen stack has every reason to work with a Jacksonville runback.

Mike Williams is an ultimate GPP play. It’s not for lack of talent as he showed in New Orleans. Williams was fantastic after Allen left with 5/109/2 and made a clutch garb towards the end of the game. The key part of that scenario was “after Allen left”. In the time with Herbert under center, Williams has an 11.8% target share, one RZ target and two EZ targets. He had eight receptions in three games. He should see some of Sidney Jones, who has allowed a 15.6 yards per reception. Williams has about six inches and almost 30 pounds on him so he can go get it. The play is just very risky.

TE – Hunter Henry is well in play and on paper, it’s a better play than Williams. He has a 17.9% air yard share and a 19.3% target share with Herbert. The Jags have also struggled against that position (shocker, I know), allowing five scores already. I’m likely using Henry only in stacks as I do prefer others for cash.

D/ST – It feels like the Chargers defense is kind of expensive since they only have four turnovers and eight sacks all year. Minshew is only under pressure about 20% of the time and LA has generated a 22.3% pressure rate. Jacksonville does have nine turnovers but I can’t find much I love here, even if Joey Bosa is healthier than Week 5.

Cash – Herbert, Allen

GPP – Jackson, Henry, Williams, Kelley

Core Four

Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Diontae Johnson, Gio Bernard

*Friday Update* If Jones is going to be out, this will be updated.

Alright, this slate has changed roughly 2,358,432 times so let’s cut to the chase. If you’re not playing Kamara, don’t play cash games. He’s hard to fade in GPP. Johnson is just too underpriced for his role in a game that carries an O/U above 50. Gio is stepping into a workhorse role without any real threat behind him.

Last, I’m going with Hunt ahead of Williams. My fear with Williams is he does have a player behind him as a threat for touches, rookie A.J. Dillon. His coach has said Dillon is ready if needed and there’s a chance that Dillon is a lead back with Williams being a pass catching specialist. With that being a possibility, I want the safety that Hunt offers. I’m treating Green Bay like Tampa Bay. I will have some shares of each back in GPP.

Game Stacks

Packers/Texans – Jones, Adams, Rodgers, Cooks, MVS, Johnson, Watson, Cobb, Fuller

Seahawks/Cardinals – Russ, Metcalf, Nuk, Kirk, Carson, Lockett, Edmonds, Drake, Murray

Lions/Falcons – Stafford, Golladay, Hockenson, Julio, Ridley, Swift, Ryan

Browns/Bengals – Burrow, Boyd, Higgins, Hunt, Mixon/Gio, Hooper, OBJ, Green, Mayfield

Steelers/Titans – Ben, Johnson, Claypool, Brown, Smith, Tannehill, Henry, Conner

Jaguars/Chargers – Herbert, Allen, Jackson, Minshew, Chark, Henry, Williams Cole, Shenualt

Panthers/Saints – Kamara, Bridgewater, Anderson, Davis, Sanders/Thomas, Brees, Moore, Murray

Team Stacks

Chiefs – Mahomes, Kelce, Robinson, Hill – Run back with Fant or Patrick

Bills – Allen, Diggs, Brown, Beasley – Run back with Crowder

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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