Tag:

NFL DFS

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13

Joe DiCarlo 5 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back once again for another breakdown of every game on the main slate for your DFS appetite, where last week brought you some juicy plays like Luke Schoonmaker and Bucky Irving who both produced six times their values. We hope you have enjoyed your Thanksgiving, so put the leftovers to the side and enjoy my take on this ten-game slate. The season is beginning to wind down, but plenty of money remains to be made!

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/1/24

Seahawks @ Jets (+2) (O/U 41.5)

We kick off the slate in Jersey as the first-place NFC West Seahawks take on the well-rested 3-8 Jets. Seattle will need a win to gain some breathing room from Arizona and LA in the division while New York will be playing to save face from a very disappointing season.

Geno Smith will return to face the team that drafted him back in 2013 and later kicked him to the curb after just four years. Now a seasoned veteran, Smith will lead a healthy arsenal of DK Metcalf and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, along with stud running back Kenneth Walker, into the swamp, lands against a solid Jets’ secondary that’s ranked second in the league. New York does allow over 130 yards per game on the ground, making Kenneth Walker the safest play at $7K on DraftKings.

The season is a wrap for New York and will aim to end it on a high note as it comes to a close. Seattle’s pass defense is mid-tier, but against the run, they also allow over 130 yards per game. We should see plenty of Breece Hall, if he can shake his knee soreness, exploiting the Seahawks’ lack of defending the run. However, Aaron Rodgers will also look to get the ball to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, who each average double-digit targets per game.

Cash: Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall

GPP: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams

Texans @ Jaguars (+5) (O/U 43.5)

We have an AFC South matchup between the first and last-place teams as the Texans take on the Jags. A well-rested Jacksonville team returning from a bye week will host a very volatile and talented Houston offense. The Texans have lost two of their last three contests, but averaged 28 points per game over that span, which we’ll take for DFS. Jacksonville’s season is toast and is also looking to play spoiler for the remainder of the year with their 2-9 record.

Houston came up short against Tennessee but will have the perfect bounce-back spot in Jacksonville. They’re dead last In passing yards allowed and DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers while also allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game (135.5). CJ Stroud has not surpassed 20 fantasy points since Week 5, making him a risk, but his teammates will be pretty trustworthy against this dumpster-fire defense. Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and even tight end Dalton Schultz (25th in DVOA to opposing tight ends) could eat this week.

Head Coach Doug Pederson is playing his final games in Jacksonville most likely, but will be getting his quarterback Trevor Lawrence back from a shoulder injury this weekend. Lawrence hasn’t played since Week 9 where he’s scored back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point performances, in hopes to pick up where he left off. In the mid $5K range Lawrence is tempting this week along with top target Jags receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who averaged well over 15 FPTS, per game with Trevor under center. Both make great GPP choices along with tight end Evan Engram.

Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins

GPP: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Evan Engram

Titans @ Commanders (-5.5) (O/U 44.5)

The Titans enter Washington coming off an upset win and will look to strike twice against the Commanders. Washington will be ready for blood, as they failed to secure the win against Dallas last week mainly to their special teams and kicker. The total is decent at a near 45 to give us enough faith for fantasy, so let’s dive into this matchup.

Will Levis stepped it up a notch in Week 12’s win in Houston averaging over 75% of his passes to be caught, a stat that could not have been met without the solid running of Tony Pollard. Good things happen when he is on the field for the Titans, as he totaled 129 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown with a 96% snap share. Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine round up the receiver core, who has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven games. The Commanders have stepped it up defensively, so keep the Titans in GPPs.

The Commanders will see a defense that allows the fifth most points per game, a stat that Jayden Daniels is licking his chops for after suffering that heart-wrenching loss last week. However, their backfield will be compromised after Austin Ekeler is hospitalized after last week’s concussion, and Brian Robinson suffers a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on reports up until Sunday, as we may have a nice bargain at running back for DFS with Jeremy McNichols ($5,400 on DK) if Robinson and Ekeler are out. Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown also see a bump in projections if both backs end up out.

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry Mclaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Jeremy McNicohls ( if Ekeler and Robinson are out)

Steelers @ Bengals (-3) (U/O 47.5)

Another divisional matchup will happen in the AFC North in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Steelers, and the total is near 50. This is mainly because of Cincinnati’s lack of defense and an enormous amount of offense, a team that has scored at will but continues to lose games. It’s a matchup that will invite most of the field, and rightfully so. The Bengals are not mathematically out of the playoffs yet. It’s go time or go home for the postseason in Cincinnati, but the Steelers are no walk in the park to score on, let’s look into it.

Pittsburgh leads the division by a thread and will look to hold onto it against a Bengals defense that is ranked 28th in the league. Although the Steelers’ ground-and-pound style of offense is led by Russell Wilson who is a shell of his former self, he has not been able to take advantage of great matchups this season. All of his weapons are useable on the slate, especially George Pickens, who will draw coverage from Cam Taylor-Britt. Britt has allowed a hefty 48 catches on an 18% target rate for nearly 700 yards and six touchdowns.

Joe Burrow has been lighting the turf on fire this season and leads the league in passing touchdowns with 27. But the window is beginning to close on the playoffs, and Burrow will see the fourth overall-ranked defense so the pressure will be on. However, I can’t stomach fading this offense at full strength, no matter what defense they go up against. Vegas gave this a 48-point total for a reason, so get them Bengals in your lineups.

Cash: Joe Burrow, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase

GPP: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Friermuth

Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5) (O/U 45)

The first-place Cardinals fly into Minnesota and will look to redeem themselves after a lackluster performance in Seattle last week. However, the Vikings may have something to prove as well, as they try to keep their head above water in the NFC North. A mid-range total here with only a little over a three-point spread is a good enough reason to gather pieces of this game for DFS,

Only two field goals were put up on the scoreboard for Arizona last weekend, a game that ruined the day for fantasy managers other than Trey McBride’s 12-catch, 133-yard performance. But expect the Cardinals to step it up a notch this weekend against a Minnesota 28th-ranked pass defense in a weatherproof atmosphere game. Although Minnesota is stout against the run (74 yards per game), James Conner is always a factor in the passing game for Arizona along with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson.

The Vikings will try to keep the ball rolling after their overtime win against Chicago last week and stay within striking distance of the 11-1 Lions. Arizona is mid-tier in overall defense, allowing 121 yards rushing and 218 yards passing per game, but hold their opponents to just over 20 points per game. Justin Jefferson fell short last week, especially due to some bad officiating. Run it back this week with one of the best in the business as head coach Kevin O’Connell will free up Jefferson on routes away from Sean Murphy-Bunting. When he is shadowed, TJ Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison make really nice comps for Sam Darnold. A quiet Justin Jefferson makes a nice under-the-radar play for tournaments this week.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride

GPP: James Conner, Kyler Murray, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5) (O/U 48)

Next, LA travels to Atlanta looking to square up after getting their rear ends handed to them by Baltimore on Monday Night. They played efficiently, but it was not enough to take out the Ravens, The Falcons will be very well rested at home after a bye week and will have other plans as they sit on top of the NFC South. LA will be without JK Dobbins for some time, so expect the Chargers to lean more on Justin Herbert, hence the 48 total. Another game on the slate indoors too, gotta love it for DFS.

With Dobbins due to miss a few games, the offense may flip the run-heavy script over to Justin Herbert’s cannon. Backup running back Gus Edwards has been a plodder so far this year while Rookie Kimani Vidal has not yet received enough reps to see much of the field, yet both are cheap for DFS. Justin Herbert along with his complementary receivers will have a nice matchup against the zone-heavy Falcon secondary that ranks 26th in the league in passing with 21 touchdowns through the air. The Chargers offer some decent value as well, with Lad McConkey being the most expensive at only $6,100 on DraftKings.

Atlanta is heavily weaponized, but will they be able to replicate what Baltimore did this past Monday night and put up points on the number-one-ranked defense? Anything is possible, as for DFS the only lock stock Falcon is Bijan Robinson. He’s an elite talent that can go off at any given play on the field. Everyone else is risky for Atlanta, but if I were to roll the dice on somebody it would be Kyle Pitts. Tight end Mark Andrews had a solid game (5REC/44YDS/1TD), Pitts should see the same looks if LA continues to show blitzes on Sunday.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Justin Herbert

GPP: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Will Dissly, Lad McConkey, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnson

Colts @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Here we get a matchup between two teams trying to end their seasons on a high note as the Patriots will host the Colts on a cold and windy day in the NorthEast. Vegas does not see much scoring in this one, but for fantasy, I see some value here at all the positions. Let’s take a gander at who is playing in Foxboro that we can use for DFS.

Indy bleeds yardage up and down the field and they’re not picky on how you decide to move the chains. The Colts allow well over 140 yards per game rushing and average around 233 yards allowed passing, so Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson are nice pieces to use at the mid-range salary. Tight end Hunter Henry is locked on the field averaging over 80% of the snaps, so he will be fine at his price of $4,200 on DraftKings. All are fine for tournaments except Henry, who can be used for cash.

Indy’s prospect Anthony Richardson has been hot and cold all season when he is healthy, and I feel this week the former Gator will feel the chill on the field. Josh Downs his top receiver has already been ruled out, and the Patriots have been pretty consistent in clogging up the middle. My advice in this spot is to pay down for the Patriots’ defense at $2,500 on DraftKings and consider the low price tag of Adonai Mitchell at $3,900 on DK as he will see more reps with the lineup missing Downs and Alec Pierce questionable.

Cash: Hunter Henry, Pats DST

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Adonai Mitchell

Bucs @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 46)

On to the late afternoon slate, as we’ll get the pleasure of beating up on the Panthers for DFS by rostering some of the Bucs. Carolina playing for pride, has also shown some glimpses of getting better moving the football and getting some stops on defense. But the Bucs are on a mission to return to the playoffs and it will be all business for Baker and company. Let’s sink our teeth into this game.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but yes we like to pick on Carolina in DFS as they remain the overall dead-last ranked defense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the Bucs’ backfield are all trending up this weekend and should see plenty of ownership. All safe for cash and tournaments, in my opinion, fire away at Carolina.

As I mentioned above, the Panthers are slowly turning the corner on offense, so for tournaments, I will be in on a few fellas, especially in tournaments. If you are looking at all the shiny toys in the Ravens/Eagles game coming up, here is your spot to gather some value. Tampa continues to struggle to defend the pass, ranking 27th and 29th in yardage and touchdowns allowed. I will fire one round using Bryce Young under $5K on DraftKings, along with Legette and Adam Thielen. If you’re really in dire straits for extra salary, Tommy Tremble will get the lion’s share of snaps at tight end filling in for the injured Sanders, and he’s only $2,800 on DK.

Cash: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton

GPP: Rachaad White, Tre Tucker, Adam Thielen, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette

Rams @ Saints (+2.5) (O/U 49)

Next, we have an under-the-radar possible shoot-out in the Big Easy as the Rams take on the Saints. LA is still recovering from Saquon Barkley’s explosion they witnessed at home while New Orleans should be well rested as they return from a bye week. We’ll see plenty of familiar faces with high price tags in this matchup, and I feel stacking this game and pivoting away from the Eagles and Ravens could get you more bang for your buck this week, here’s why…

Terrible defenses, excellent offenses, and indoors. The big three factors for DFS, so get in on this game to make some green screens. New Orleans ranks 28th against the pass to the heavy passing offense of the Rams, while LA is the third worst rushing defense in the league (see Saquon Barkley) to a Saints team that loves to ground and pound. In a Vegas total of 49 with under a three-point spread, we have to be interested in players. Get in your fill from both sides for cash or GPPs.

Cash: Puka Nacua, Alvin Kamara, Matt Stafford

GPP: Taysom Hill, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling

Eagles @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 50.5)

And without further delay, the Main Event of the slate is here. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles head onto I-95 to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the year. This will be the first time these elite quarterbacks will line up across from each other from the sidelines, and it’s about time. Playoff positioning and bragging rights are on the line, so let’s finish up the breakdown.

Their offense is number two in the league, but the Ravens’ defense has been awful, mainly in pass coverage. It will be all hands on deck to stop the Philadelphia one-two punch of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, especially without veteran OLB Kyle Van Noy who will be out with a hamstring. Eagles OC Kellen Moore will plan to attack this 31st in DVOA Ravens’ secondary through the air since Baltimore only yields 78 yards per game on the ground. Hurts, Brown, Goedert, and DeVonta Smith if healthy will all be cash plays, as Saquon Barkley will move to tournaments only.

Baltimore will have a tough matchup on paper as the Eagles rank third in pass coverage and seventh in rushing defense, but playing inferior opponents in the NFC East may have those stats inflated a bit. The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has been an anomaly in the league to stop, and until I see someone pump the brakes on this offense, It’s wheels up in Baltimore. The number two-ranked offense in the league has already rushed for well over 2,000 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. Start your Ravens in DFS for cash or tournaments and sleep like a baby tonight, we’re in for some great football tomorrow afternoon.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)

GPP: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

5 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: BALTIMORE RAVENS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 12 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a brotherly affair as the Harbaugh brothers face off for family supremacy. Besides the head coaches stealing the show, these are both very good football teams that are battling for seeding in the AFC Playoffs. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Ravens and Chargers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total in Baltimore -2.5 and 51 points. That is a perfect recipe for a back and forth game which adds many players into our pool.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Until last night, the Ravens had the NFL’s leading rusher in Derek Henry. But after Saquon Barkley’s massive SNF game, Henry is now in 2nd and a healthy 207 yards away from the Eagles RB. But that doesn’t overshadow the amazing season that Henry is having at age 30. The Ravens RB is averaging 107 yards per game rushing and has scored a TD in all eleven games this season. He’s proving that there is a lot more left in his tank.

As for the Chargers rush D, they allow the 10th least rushing yards per game in the league at 110.5. And heading into Week 12, they allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to RB’s. But advanced metrics do see some weak points in those stats as PFF ranks the Chargers 12th in rush defense and DVOA has LA at 15th.

One thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers injury report tonight. LB Denzel Perryman is listed as out. And edge rush Khalil Mack is questionable. That leaves the front seven somewhat thin and vulnerable to a viscous running attack like the one Baltimore deploys.

Also in play is Justice Hill. The 2nd string RB for the Ravens saw a 49% snap usage in Week 11 which was tied with Henry. The game script led to that but it is worth noting as Baltimore has sat Henry for long stretches in previous games too.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Punt:

Wide Receiver

The Ravens have the 4th highest run/pass ratio in the NFL. They will still beat you in the air, but their preferred offensive strategy is to beat you with the legs of Henry, Jackson and Hill. And I honestly believe that could be the strategy tonight as the Chargers have a solid pass rush and defense. The Chargers have the 4th highest pass coverage rating in the NFL according to PFF. And DVOA ranks the Chargers as the 6th best pass D. A lot of that is due to DB’s Kristian Fulton and Tarheeb Still who rank in the top 25 in pass defense this season.

Ultimately, the Ravens do have speed at WR and we saw that produce big problems for the Chargers last week against the Bengals. They were beat deep on several occasions and I see the Ravens trying to take those shots tonight too. The main producer is Zay Flowers, and he is fully in play for all slates. But Rashod Bateman has been a consistent #2 and has led the Ravens in target shares in three games this season. He’s also second on the team with 4 TD receptions.

Tier 1: Zay Flowers

Tier 2: Rashod Bateman

Punts: Nelson Agholor (deep threat who could see one to two opportunities)

Tight End

Since Week 4, Mark Andrews has stepped up his game. He’s averaging 3.8 catches and 44.7 yards per game in that stretch. More importantly, he’s scored 5 TD’s in those 7 games. Isaiah Likely is also in play as he returned with a big outing last week in Pittsburgh, hauling in 4 catches for 75 yards.

The Chargers have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to TE’s this year. They shut out Mike Gesicki from the Bengals last week. And they haven’t allowed at TD to TE’s this year.

While we’ll all be tempted to snag a Ravens TE, I am probably going to fade this position for the most part and focus on the running attack and 1-2 WR’s.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews

Tier 2: Isaiah Likely

Punt/Fadeable:

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

The way to attack the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore allows just 77.5 yards per game on the ground which is 2nd best in football. This could be due to their terrible pass D and teams tend not to run (2nd lowest attempts in league). But the advanced metrics also like Baltimore’s run D as they rank 3rd overall in PFF and 6th in DVOA.

The Chargers do have a solid rushing attack but I believe it is closer to a shared backfield than last week’s stats will show. JK Dobbins hardly touched the ball but got to his numbers with a late TD run. Gus Edwards was the back on the field early in the game. And for some idiotic reason, Hasaan Haskins has seen four goal line carries in the past 2 weeks.

I’d tread carefully here against a really good Ravens D. My preferred option is Edwards but I don’t have high confidence in any of them. Even if it is a revenge match.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Tier 2: Hasaan Haskins

Wide Receiver

As we mentioned earlier, you attack Baltimore through the air. They prefer man-to-man and frankly, they don’t do it well. Teh Ravens allow the most yards passing per game at 284.5. Additionally, they allow the most fantasy points to WR’s.

Ladd McConkey is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. So we have to keep an eye on that. But Quentin Johnson is the one to keep a tighter eye on. He has 6 TD catches this season and has recorded a touchdown catch in each of the last three games. He’s the deep threat in this offense as he saw eight targets last week.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnson

Tier 2: Josh Palmer

Cheap Options: Derius Davis

Tight End

Will Dissly had a huge game last week going for 4 catches and 80 yards against the Bengals. No surprise here, but Baltimore is bad against TE’s too. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to that position coming into Week 11.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry or Justin Herbert. The QB’s look to have the best upside based on the opposing defenses weaknesses. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson

FDMVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey

FDMVP Tier 3: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert

DK CPT Tier 2: Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers

DK CPT Tier 3: Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly, Justice Hill

DK CPT Punt: Mark Andrews, Josh Palmer

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have two QB’s who can attack the other defense. I expect a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson running the ball. Also, you may have heard but he’s awesome on Prime Time games.
Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert. He faces the worst pass defense in the league. He lit up the Bengals last week who look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Ravens.
Derek Henry scores TD’s. And to keep the Chargers pass rush at arms length, I expect the Ravens to use a heavy does of Henry tonight. I LOVE him in all spots but we have to find a way to fit him in with LJack on most lineups.
Ladd McConkey is an impressive rookie. If he plays, he’ll be my favorite Chargers WR.
Quentin Johnson is seeing the field and a high rate of targets. He has a chance to break the slate.
I’m fading the defenses tonight.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
Keep an eye on Nelson Agholor. I think the Ravens will take 1-2 deep shots to a cheap option.
Justice Hill is a copy cat of Chase Brown. And we saw Brown have a big game last week against LA. If fading Henry, put Hill in your lineup. I don’t like both in the same lineup.

Favorite prop for the game:

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Twelve

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Another week with high hopes went south as we went just 2-2 overall. But we once again hit on our Prime-Time games with winners on MNF with the Texans and on TNF with the Jameis Winston led Cleveland Browns. The public had a solid week, winning over 50% of the games. But I still see opportunities this week to fade the general consensus, as witnessed with the Browns on Thursday.

As for Survivor, we are still cooking in the main contest as a Detroit victory was sealed by the end of the 1st Q. This week brings a few options to use unpopular teams and we’re going to have to roll the dice as the pool of available teams is getting thinner by the week.

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

We’re going back to the Bears this week as they paid us off last week with a cover against their hated rivals in the Packers. I’m still not a believer of Sam Darnold and think this Bears D can present some real problems for him. The Vikings typically play the Bears well, as they have won five of the last six contests. However, the Bears won the last game they played, stunning the Vikings and creating 4 turnovers along the way. The Vikings come into this game with the 5th most turnovers in the league at 17. On the other side, the Bears have created 17 turnovers and are third best in the league with a +9 differential. I believe in a modified offensive game, the Bears will win the TO battle and come out with a rare victory against their rivals from the north.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

Another thrashing by the Lions as they pummeled the Jaguars 52-6 last week and outgained them by almost 500 yards. The Lions have done this before, and in the following week had tough games. In Week 6 they beat Dallas by 38 only to squeak out a win in Week 7 over Minnesota by 2 points. They are clearly the betting public’s favorite team right now which makes this spot dangerous. Detroit is seeing 82% of the bets on the spread and 72% of the money.

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are one of the most poorly managed franchisees in all of sports. The fact that they cut QB Daniel Jones is crazy. But then they simply skipped over their #2 QB in Drew Lock and handed the ball to a manufactured gimmick in Tommy Devito is more crazy. I’m banking on the Bucs rest combined with the Giants situation to be keys to fuel Tampa to victory. The addition of Mike Evans is also a key component to this game as the Giants rank 24th against the pass according to DVOA.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m not sure if the Seahawks are back. But they did display grit and determination last week in their comeback win against the 49ers. The interesting point is this was coming off the bye week where they had some interesting moves, including a sudden retirement of their starting center, Connor Williams, at the young age of 27. What it told me is that rookie HC Mike MacDonald took a global view of this team and instituted major changes. And the biggest move was their philosophy change in the passing game. Seattle led the league in pass ratio prior to the bye but came out of Week 11 with a 58% rate. They were at 66% for the season coming into that game. This is a key in handicapping this game as Arizona allows 127.5 rushing yards per game, 13th highest in the NFL.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked great of late, but he hasn’t played for 10 days so I expect to see the best version of him. And has anyone seen the Cowboys play of late? They can’t stay within 20 points of teams.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back here in Week 12 of the 2024 NFL Season to break down another fine Sunday Main Slate of action. There are only ten games this weekend, but there is still plenty to get through. Congrats to anyone who stacked the Lions in their lineups last weekend. I was all over that matchup in my write-up, along with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Let’s get back to the grind as there’s still plenty more money to make in DFS.

Sunday Main Slate 11/24/24

Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 41.5)

Kansas City hits the road again after taking one on the chin in Buffalo ending their undefeated season. They’ll hit the turf in Carolina to face a Panthers team fresh off a bye, sitting as huge underdogs at home. They’ll be hosting one of the top defenses in the league of Kansas City, hopefully, the Panthers took plenty of practice reps over their break.

Last week’s primetime event loss in Buffalo could still be burning inside of Kansas City, as they watched Josh Allen run the ball for thirty yards into the endzone to seal their fate. The Panthers may end up being a punching bag for Pat Mahomes and company to let out some frustration, as the matchup is salivating. The Panthers are currently ranked dead last in points allowed and rushing defense. Mahomes and his passing targets will be a full go, but we must wait and see if Isiah Pacheco will return from IR or if Kareem Hunt will get another full workload at running back.

The Panthers looked awesome two weeks ago in Germany, pulling off the win against the Giants. But they may be heading into a brick wall come Sunday against the Steve Spagnuolo Chiefs defense. Kansas City allows only 19 points per game, with the number-one-ranked run defense that could keep Chuba Hubbard in a vise (85 YPG allowed). There’s no time to get cute this week by taking on the Panthers in your DFS lineups.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, KareemHunt/Isiah Pacheco (watch for injury reports)

Bucs @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)

Big Blue is back home from Germany and a bye to host Tampa Bay, another team that should be rested from a week off. Both clubs will look to get right and back in the win column after suffering some tough losses. New York is clearly out of the playoff race while Tampa is desperately trying to stay in the hunt, It is a game that holds water on both sides, and here’s why.

Head coach Brian Dabol has benched Daniel Jones this week and named Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito as the starter, not Drew Lock. The move raised a lot of eyebrows in the Tri-State Area as Lock is the clear front-runner for the job. Is it a publicity stunt, or a way to cheat Lock out of incentives? Either way, Dabol is coaching to keep his job so it’s Cutlets’ time to shine. The Bucs offer a great way for DeVito to start his 2024 season, as they allow the third-most passing yards and touchdowns in the league. DeVito, Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy are all GPP-worthy this weekend.

The Bucs sit in the cat-bird seat finally after four straight tough matchups that cost them the lead in the division. New York ranks fourth in pass defense, but I would not be afraid of that stat since opposing teams have averaged close to 150 yards per game on the ground. Salaries have dropped on DraftKings for Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, so pick your poison and take advantage of the discount at running back. The backbone of the passing volume will flow through Cade Otton, who has dominated the tight end position with double-digit targets in four of his last five games, 30 catches, and three scores. And finally, if you like to follow revenge narratives as I do, Sterling Shepard returns to MetLife Stadium for the first time. If Mike Evans takes another week off to heal, Shepard could also see a number of extra passes from Mayfield.

Cash: Cade Otton, Malik Nabers

GPP: Tyrone Tracy, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans (if healthy), Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito, Wan’Dale Robinson, Bucs DST

Update: Daniel Jones was released by the Giants

Lions @ Colts (+7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Detroit has been a runaway freight train, steamrolling its competition, and will look to keep its momentum going on the road in Indianapolis. Detroit showed no mercy to Jacksonville, holding them to only six points while they threw up 52. But the Colts may have some momentum coming into this game after beating the Jets on the road with the reinstated Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

Arguably one of the league’s top offenses, The Lions should have no problem scoring again this weekend. They’re currently ranked number two in rushing touchdowns and number four in passing, so if you can afford their salaries sprinkle some in your DFS lineups in cash or GPPs. Jared Goff is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 412 yards and four touchdowns, and is worthy of another start against a Colts defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards in the league.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson showed us some flashes of brilliance on the field against the Jets last week. He completed 67% of his passes, throwing for one touchdown and rushing for two. But he’ll be a risky play for DFS once again facing a Detroit team that has shut down opposing offenses by running up the score and forcing their opponents to throw into a secondary that leads the league in interceptions with 14. They’ve also only allowed seven passing scores all year, so Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce should remain in tournaments with Richardson.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta (if healthy), Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor

Patriots @ Dolphins (-7) (U/O 46)

The Dolphins racked up their second win in a row and will host their division rival New England Patriots in sunny Miami, Florida. The Patriots continue to play through some growing pains, suffering their eighth loss of the year to the Rams. This game offers some opportunity for value at every position with a decent total in a warm weather environment. Let’s check it out.

New England’s secondary has been target practice for quarterbacks all year, allowing 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions, with four to Matt Stafford last weekend. Add the fact they allow close to 130 yards per game to running backs and you have a great matchup for the Fins at home. Tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a reliable passing commodity for Tua, catching six for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Vegas. He’s another great start at $4,100 on DraftKings this week.

It was a steep hill to climb to keep up with Matt Stafford for Drake Maye last week, and it may be a repeat this week against Miami. Rhamondre Stevenson is still a solid DFS running back with 20 carries per week, but Maye’s receiver core should also be considered for a few punt options on the slate. DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and Kayshon Boutte are all worth a shot at their low prices connected to Drake Maye, who has had over 40 passing attempts in two of his last three games.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 39.5)

The 8-2 Vikings, winners of three straight games will fly into the windy city of Chicago to battle the Bears. Chicago is up to their old tricks, losers of four straight games after starting out the year at 4-2. They’ll again try to pick up the pieces at home against division rival Minnesota, but it will not be an easy task that’s for sure. It’s a total of under forty featuring two solid defenses, a stat that we frown upon for DFS.

Chicago has been a burden on opposing quarterback play this season, tying for first defensively in touchdown passes allowed at seven thanks to guys like Kevin Byard and Tyrique Stevenson roaming around the secondary. But they’ve shown some weakness in the trenches as they allow an average of 130 yards rushing per game. This is great news for Aaron Jones, who has been quiet lately and is due a decent matchup. Start him up in GPPs along with Justin Jefferson, whose talent is un fadeable.

It’s been a murky month of football for Chicago, and it doesn’t seem the sun will be coming out anytime soon this weekend. Minnesota is ranked number one defensively in points allowed and rushing yards, holding backs to a measly 3.6 yards per carry. The Vikes also lead the league in picks with 16 on the season, so it’s best to stay away from any part of the Caleb Williams slumping Bears. The Minnesota defense may be the better choice in this matchup.

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST

Titans @ Texans (-8) (O/U 42)

Houston will welcome the Titans as eight-point favorites in a low total contest and aim to keep themselves on top of their division. Tennessee remains at the bottom of the AFC South and continues to look forward to a high draft position for next season. Both teams are very familiar with each other in this divisional match.

The Texans manhandled the Cowboys in front of their own crowd on Monday Night, exposing their weakness at quarterback. Expect the same dosage of pressure on the inexperienced Will Levis. He’ll need to get the ball out quickly to Calvin Ridley, who leads the league in deep targets (21) and has a great matchup across from Derek Stingley who allows close to 12 yards per reception. Ridley is affordable on DraftKings ($5,700) and a sneaky DFS receiver if he plays (illness). Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are other cheap Titans to draft as the team may be trailing in the second half.

The Texans have been riding the hot hand to victories, and that hand is Joe Mixon. The seventh-year back out of Oklahoma is second in the league in touchdowns with 11 and leads the league in yards per reception at running back and red zone carries. If you can afford him, he will get you value as he also leads the league in fantasy points per game (22.6). The Texans’ other elite talent is Nico Collins. He was quiet in his return from IR in Dallas, but expect him to get ramped up this week in a cupcake matchup against a Titans’ secondary that will be stacking the box to stop Mixon.

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Texans DST, Tony Pollard

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Pollard will get all the work

Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)

Dallas will try to pick up the pieces after losing Monday Night and hit the road to face division rival Washington. The Cowboys gave it their all against Houston at home, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Texans and Joe Mixon. Meanwhile, the Commanders are in a great spot to gain some ground with the first-place Eagles by securing a win at home as 10.5-point favorites.

Cooper Rush will once again lead the Cowboys onto NorthWest Stadium in DC, but he’ll face a much stingier passing defense developed by head coach Dan Quinn, who was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator last season. Rush threw it 55 times Monday Night with only one touchdown and one pick, but this offense as a whole is in shambles. The Commanders’ defense is the only trustworthy DFS move when Dallas has the ball as of now. Keep a close eye on tight end Jake Ferguson’s status. If he doesn’t clear protocols, backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker is a clear value play this week. He saw ten targets filling in for Ferguson, catching six of them for 56 yards, making him a lock for cash/GPP formats.

The Dallas defense has failed the team since Week One. They’ve fallen dead last in points allowed, mainly because they have been unable to stop the run all season. They’ve ranked last in touchdowns and yards allowed to opposing running backs. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler should stride with ease this week as they utilize their stout offensive line. Their large chunks of yardage should also open up passing lanes for Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown for Jayden Daniels. It’s wheels up for any Commanders in your lineups on Sunday.

Cash: Brian Robinson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke Schoonmaker (if Ferguson is out)

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Washington DST

Update: Ferguson is out…take the free space at tight end with Schoonmaker

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41)

The bucking Broncos will gallop into Vegas to kick off the late afternoon slate and look to take advantage of a 29th-ranked Raiders’ defense. Vegas, with a record of 2-8, is well on its way to the top of the draft board in 2025. It’s a decent spread with a total that is a little underwhelming, but a couple of players in this game will be essential this week for DFS.

Denver’s 2024 number-one pick is panning out to become rookie of the year with his play and leadership this season. Sitting with a respectable 6-5 record, Nix has averaged an amazing 70% on completions and is not gun-shy at all, leading the league in deep ball attempts with 48. He’s also fifth in the league in carries and rushing touchdowns. With only 20 quarterbacks to roll with on the slate this week, he makes my top three, Get Nix in nude in your lineups, or if you are feeling frisky stack him with any running back or wide receiver(s) in GPPs only.

With all the drama this year for Vegas, there has been one glimmer of light, and his name is Brock Bowers. The rookie is matchup and quarterback-proof. In his ten professional games, he’s averaged over 10 yards per catch, saw 89 targets, and caught 70 for 706 yards. Other than the Broncos’ defense, which is priced up, Bowers is the only safe play in Vegas for DFS, although pay close attention to the Raiders’ running back room on the injury reports. If Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sit out, Ameer Abdullah at $4,300 on DraftKings will be a super-saver at running back on the slate.

Cash: Bo Nix, Brock Bowers

GPP: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Audric Estime`, Ameer Abdullah (if Mattison and White are out)

Update: Mattison and White are doubtful… Ameer Abdullah and Derek Laube are more valuable at running back

Niners @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 48)

The Niners hit the road and will try to bounce back from a devastating loss by Seattle. The Packers will welcome them to Lambeau Field in hopes of keeping their win streak alive and in contention for the NFC North title. Temperatures are beginning to drop in Wisconsin, but not enough to affect the sweet total of 48, let’s see who’s available for DFS.

Brock Purdy has been ranked QB 6 coming into this weekend, but he is also pretty banged up with a shoulder injury. Head coach Kyle Shannahan is “hopeful” that he will play, so pay close attention to his status on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings’ fate will all rest in the hands of the astronaut Josh Dobbs if Purdy is not available this week, so they will all be risky players if that plays out.

The Packers escaped Soldier Field by the skin of their helmets with a win, now back at home they’ll have some time to regroup. Jordan Love reclaimed his value at 20-plus fantasy points, as well as Josh Jacobs with 23 FPTS. against Chicago. Both are the only safe and predictable plays once again this week, as the receiving core remains a crap shoot on who will feast week in and out for touchdowns and volume. The Niners have the firepower to put up a fight, so Love should be on his toes to answer back.

Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle

GPP: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy (if healthy), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft

Update: Brock Purdy is Out…Brandon Allen or Packers DST, just go with your gut

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-1) (O/U 47.5)

We have an NFC West matchup to wrap up the slate, and it’s an enticing 47.5 total as the Cardinals head into Seattle for a potential rain game. There’s some potential for both teams to go score for score given the one-point spread and familiarity between them. But let’s keep an eye on the forecast, if it downpours we may need to steer elsewhere on the slate.

Rain or shine, the matchup is sweet for Kyler Murray and James Conner’s footwork. Murray snuck in two touchdowns against the Jets, and Conner has not scored less than 14 FPTS in nearly six weeks. Seattle continues to struggle to defend the run, as they’ve allowed close to 140 yards per game. The dual-threat will open lanes for Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson if the weather cooperates.

The Seahawks are flying high after their upset win in the Bay Area against the Forty Niners. All thanks to Geno Smith’s rushing touchdown in the final minute, but he’ll need some more magic against the first-place Cardinals. Smith’s accuracy of 74% has been crucial, so long as it stays weather-friendly Jaxson Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf will again be his top targets. DK’s mid-$6K range on DraftKings is very tasty, especially against an Arizona defense that will send Sean Murphy-Bunting on him (8.7 Yards per Target allowed). Kenneth Walker as usual gets respect for DFS as he can explode in any given game script, and at $7K on DraftKings, he could be very under-owned because of the tremendous value at the position this week.

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, DK Metcalf

GPP: Geno Smith, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr,

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: HOUSTON TEXANS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of Texas as the Cowboys and Texans square off in Big D. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between Houston and Dallas. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a rather high point spread and low game total; Houston -7 and 41. This brings into play both kickers and a defense. It also may put stronger emphasis on TD scorers vice high volume cacthers.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

The Texans average 119.4 yards/game on the ground, which is good 14th best in football. Conversely, they are just 23rd in run blocking grading and 24th in rush offense DVOA. So even though the yards are decent, they aren’t a very productive running team. But the good news is, they get a chance to improve those numbers tonight as they face the 27th rated rush defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 152.1 and the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

So that means we are in full Joe Mixon mode tonight. He’s got the best possible matchup an RB could have besides facing the Carolina Panthers. And while Micah Parsons did return last week, the Boys still got pummeled on the ground allowing 187 rushing yards to the Eagles (130 of that to RB’s). As for Mixon, he received 76% of the snaps last week and 27 of the 28 touches to RB’s. The latter was the second highest for any RB in Week 10. He’s clearly the workhorse and will see the lion’s share of touches tonight.

RB Dameon Pierce returns for the Texans tonight. He’s been out the last two weeks with a groin injury. But in the three weeks he’s suited up to backup Mixon, he’s received just 6 carries total. So I don’t deem him as a threat to stealing away touches from Mixon and I will not consider him in my lineups bases on other value we can find.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: N/A

Punt: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The big news for the Texans tonight is the return of WR Nico Collins. Their star WR has been out since week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was activated last week but sat out for precautionary reasons. Reports out of Houston are saying he’s fully healthy and should have no restrictions on routes. On the year, Nico is averaging 23.1 fantasy points, which puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only Ja’Marr Chase. So he’s obviously a targeted player for us.

Tank Dell has 15 catches in the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly the #2 in Houston and could have a big game depending how Dallas decides to cover Nico.

John Metchie was the big winner of the secondary Texans WR”s as he racked up 6 targets in Week 10, en route to 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD.

Xavier Hutchinson will likely fall back to 4th WR duty. He will only provide value if he gets in the endzone as his snap count is projected under 30%.

Tier 1: Nico Collins

Tier 2: Tank Dell, John Metchie

Punts: Xavier Hutchinson

Tight End

The TE position has been a mysterious void for the Texans this year. Dalton Schultz has just 29 receptions and 310 yards in 10 games. And he’s yet to find the endzone. The Cowboys have defended TE’s quite well, allowing the 7th least receiving yards to that position. If they’ve had any issues, it’s the endzone as they’ve allowed 4 TD’s to TE’s (T-8th most). But as we see with Schultz’s stats, the Texans don’t look to the TE’s in the redzone much.

If anything, Cade Stover could be an under the radar look this week. He did get one target in the redzone last

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Cade Stover

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys really screwed up when they didn’t go after an RB in the offseason. But after their recent embarrassing loss, and their loss of QB Dak Prescott, makes me fully believe they’ll commit to the run tonight. However, the issue is the Houston Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run. I do think Rico Dowdle will get the majority of the carries but he’s got a very tough matchup so don’t go heavy on him.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekiel Elliott

Wide Receiver

Houston has the 2nd best defense overall. Which leads to them having the 4th best pass defense DVOA. But, they do allow yards and TD’s to WR’s making them 22nd against receivers for fantasy points. This leads to a very tough matchup for Dallas receivers. But not just because of the Texans pass D, but because Cooper Rush is trash. He threw for just 40 yards last week against the Eagles.

I do think Cee Dee Lamb is going to bounce back tonight. He can be moved around and match up against the weakest corner. Plus the Texans play zone a ton which can allow Lamb to find the soft spots.

As for the secondary receivers, the Cowboys paid a price for Mingo and he will see more snaps tonight. So I’ve moved him up into Tier 2.

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo

Cheap Options: Jalen Brooks, Kevontae Turpin,

Tight End

My favorite Cowboys receiver tonight is Jake Ferguson. The Texans give up the 3rd least points to TE’s. But a tight end can be the short passer (Cooper Rush) friend.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Joe Mixon and CeeDee Lamb. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. The WR corps seem to be the best area to get our value and win the slate. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CeeDee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Nico Collins, CJ Stroud

FDMVP Tier 3: Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdel, Jake Ferguson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, CeeDee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jake Ferguson

DK CPT Tier 3: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdel, TEXANS D

DK CPT Punt: Cooper Rush

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have to dial in on a Texans star for CPT. Yes, the Cowboys could produce one but I’m more focused on choosing between Mixon, Stroud, Collins and Texans D.
Cooper Rush could be a sneaky play. He was terrible against the Eagles but was 5-1 in his previous 6 starts.
Joe Mixon is easily my favorite CPT. He has a GREAT matchup.
I have a feeling this could be a Cee Dee Lamb game.
I like Jake Ferguson as my safest option for the Cowboys receiving game.
I’m fading the Cowboys run game for the most part.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
Consider playing the Texans D on your slate tonight.
Remember, this is close to a playoff game for the Cowboys. I think it’ll be low scoring but they will hang tight. That opens you up to playing both kickers.

Favorite prop for the game:

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Eleven

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We’re on fire when it comes to Prime Time games, winning all 3 standalone games last weekend and then taking down last night’s game between the Commanders and Eagles. The problem is, I couldn’t come through on the Sunday day games and we’re still below 0.500. But the hot streak is coming and no better time than now. This weekend has so many huge games, with none bigger than Kansas City at Buffalo. So let’s enjoy the best weekend of the NFL season and make some money along the way.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re still alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Chargers. We’re still alive and keep it rolling this week.

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The symmetry in this game is mind boggling. Let start with the Browns and Jameis Winston. In his first start, just 3 weeks ago, the Browns upset the Ravens. They used the energy from the QB change to propel themselves to victory. Unfortunately, the energy dissipated in his second start and the Browns fell to the Chargers.

The Saints had maximum energy last week after a coaching change as interim HC Darren Rizzi won his first game in an upset of the Falcons last week. Everyone saw Rizzi’s energy, and the Saints were fueled by that. But here is game two under the new HC, and can they continue that high level of play. Or is a letdown inevitable, just like we saw with the Browns and Jameis in their 2nd game.

There’s also the motivation of Jameis Winston coming back to New Orleans to play a game. Winston played the last 4 years for the Saints and had some memorable moments. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a bye week and have had time to prepare for the Saints. For those reasons, and the expected letdown coming from NO following a great emotional victory, and I like the Browns to take home a W in a battle of last place teams in their respective divisions.

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Broncos, like many other teams, had the Chiefs down and out. But somehow, the Chiefs won in miracle fashion, again, and sent the Broncos to their 5th defeat of the season. However, we need to take away from that game the competitiveness of the Broncos and how they are much closer to being a contender than being a pretender. Bo Nix has continued to improve, throwing for 5 TD’s and just 1 INT over the past four weeks.

On the other hand, Atlanta is a smoke and mirrors type team. Which is typical of Kirk Cousins past seasons. The Falcons lead the division at 6-4, but are just +2 in point differential. They are 5-2 in one score games this season and have been on the fortunate side of some good breaks. But as we saw in NO last week, those types of good breaks don’t last forever.

To me, Denver is the better team. And playing in the mile high altitude is difficult for opponents. Especially ones that hardly play in Denver like Atlanta. Give me the Broncos to pull off the win this week and stay closely packed in the AFC Wild Card race.

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

If this game was played 3 weeks ago, when the Bears were coming off three straight wins and sitting pretty at 4-2, this spread would have likely been in Chicago’s favor. However, the last three weeks did happen, and we know Chicago has looked dreadful of late which has resulted in them being a home dog of almost a touchdown to their divisional foes, the Green Bay Packers. The point here is similar to why we liked the Dolphins up in Buffalo two weeks ago, a 7-8 point shift in a line over 3 weeks seems like too much. There’s also some data showing sharp money coming in on the Bears which is pushing it down below 6 points in some markets.

In short, the Bears D has created 16 turnovers this season which is top 5 in the NFL. This is important because they’re facing a Packers team that has thrown 10 INT’s, which is tied for 4th most in the league. I expect the Bears D to be able to give the Packers trouble and keep their offense in the game. I also expect, the change at offensive coordinator will help the Bears have a more sophisticated passing game but also utilize the running game much more. Afterall, the Bears rank as the 13th best run blocking unit per PFF. The issue is, the Bears have the 8th highest pass rate at 63%.

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are sitting pretty at 7-2 and in 2nd place in the NFC North. But the football they’ve been playing of late isn’t very pretty. They are coming off an ugly 5-point victory in Jacksonville where they managed just 12 points on four FG’s. Before that, they barely squeaked by a Colts team led by Joe Flacco, who are spiraling downwards with three straight losses. And flip it one week before that where the Vikings lost by 10 to the Rams, who by the way looked abysmal this past Monday night.

They get an opportunity to get back on track today against another poor football team in the Tennessee Titans. But I see this as a spot as the Vikings are playing their 3rd road game in four weeks. And the Titans, at 2-7, will have to play this like a playoff game (or at least treat it like one) and I expect them to show some pride, similar to the Jags last week. Lastly, three of the four Titans home games have been one-score games. They play tough(er) at home and will have a shot against a Vikings team that has shown some signs of weakness of late.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

If you still have Detroit left, this is the perfect week to use them. Jacksonville is terrible. And Detroit just played their worst game of the season and still won. They’ll have motivation to clean it up this week and come home with a big W.

If you don’t have Detroit available, consider the Houston Texans.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 11

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Once again we are back for another ten-game slate to break down for Week 11. The season is just flying by us from week to week, and our DFS plays have been as close as you can call it. We’ll have you covered as always, so sit back and enjoy my takes on this Week 11 ten-game banger.

Sunday Main Slate 11/17/24

Vikings @ Titans (+6) (O/U 39.5)

We start the afternoon with the 7-2 Vikings on the road in Tennessee to face the last-place Titans of the AFC South. Every game is important for Minnesota to keep pace with Detroit and Green Bay in their division, while the Titans are playing for sole pride as they sit with a record of 2-7. It’s a touchdown spread with a total under 40, so don’t get your hopes up, everybody.

It was a busy day last week for the Vikes’ kicker Will Reichard, but a win is a win in the NFL with five field goals under his belt. It was a quiet afternoon for Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and company last week against Jacksonville, so expect Sam Darnold to get back on track with the help of head coach Kevin O’Connell. Tennessee ranks number one in passing defense, allowing only 158 passing yards per game, so Minnesota may lean slightly run-heavy at the start of the game.

Quarterback Will Levis regained the start in Week 10 and looked a sight for sore eyes for Tennessee. He completed over 78% of his passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, adding 41 yards rushing as well. Minnesota ranks 26th in passing DVOA, so the Titans will rally behind Levis’s arm one more time. Calvin Ridley has been a staple for target volume and has not seen less than eight looks since Week 4.

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Aaron Jones, Will Levis, Vikings DST

Packers @ Bears (+6) (O/U 41)

Green Bay returns from their bye week to travel to Soldier Field and square off against a Bears’ offense that recently fired its OC Shane Waldron. Chicago’s offensive woes continued into Week 10 against a young New England defense, scoring just three points. Interm coach Thomas Brown will do his best to fix Caleb and the Bears this week in a pivotal NFC North matchup.

Jordan Love’s groin is hopefully back to 100 percent after a week off, he’ll need every ounce of his body against the Bears’ top pass coverage that has only allowed six touchdowns this season,1st in DVOA to quarterbacks. However, Green Bay has relied heavily on its running game featuring Josh Jacobs. His workload has been tremendous, ranking 7th in the league in carries with already 762 rushing yards this season, Jacobs faces a Bears’ defense that allows well over 130 yards per game. It’s a solid option for cash, while Jayden Reed and the Packers’ receiving core get GPP nominations just for being back alongside Love.

On the Chicago side of DFS, it will be safest to take the wait-and-see approach this week on how they will perform while using the Packers’ DST. But if you feel Chicago will come out swinging after the players rallied to get their play caller fired then by all means take your shot in DFS. There should be zero ownership across the board, and the prices have fallen salary-wise for Chicago at every skill position.

Cash: Josh Jacobs

GPP: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Packers DST, DJ Moore

Ravens @ Steelers (+3) (O/U 48.5)

Baltimore returns to the Main Slate in an AFC North matchup against a newly refined offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only one game separates the teams from first place in the division, so expect a significant amount of pressure on both teams this weekend. With the second-highest total on the slate, we should see plenty of the field flock over to this game, so let’s decide on who to pick up.

The Ravens’ 32nd-ranked secondary continues to produce QB1 stats to opposing quarterbacks from week to week. Joe Burrow put up two monster games this season, and Jameis Winston went back in time to 2018 and threw for over 330 yards. Russell Wilson and all of his passing weapons get massive approval for the slate in both cash and GPP formats. Although Baltimore has the number one-ranked rushing defense, Jaylen Warren gets an exception because of his pass-catching abilities out of the flat…see Chase Brown’s game log from last Thursday.

Baltimore will get a tough matchup on paper, but nobody in the league has had an answer to the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh ranks number two overall on defense, and fourth against the run, but this is a whole new animal they will be facing on Sunday. The Ravens are the number one ranked overall offense, and they have racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between the duo. Add Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews to the mix regardless of the matchup as the playbook is wide-open in Baltimore. All are safe for cash games and GPP while Diontae Johnson, Justice Hill, and Rashod Bateman make sneaky punt plays to stack. Johnson’s revenge game narrative is in full effect!

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Russell Wilson

GPP: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Rashod Bateman

Rams @ Patriots (+4.5) (U/O 43.5)

LA goes back on the road after a tough loss at home to save face against the Patriots. They never reached the endzone against Miami, so expect the Rams to let out some frustration in Foxboro. The Patriots shocked the Sportsbooks last weekend in Chicago, beating the Bears 19-3. Has their defense turned the corner or were they the beneficiaries of a fired Tom Waldron playbook? This weekend will set the record straight.

Outside of last week’s lockdown of the Bears on defense, the Patriots spilled yardage to opposing offenses, an average of close to 350 per week, 130 of them to running backs. The touchdown streak is over for Kyren Williams who had a dismal performance against Miami. But that was due to game flow, expect LA to once again lean on their bell cow and tough defense on the rookie Drake Maye to get back in the win column. This will in effect open up routes for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Take on the Rams for DFS in GPPs.

The rookie Drake Maye has steadily improved from week to week and led his team to victory in Chicago, but not without the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson continues to face stacked boxes when on the field, yet he averages 4.4 YPC. Drake Maye has also eluded the pass rush, tacking on 233 yards and a touchdown for the season. If you are in on the Pats the safest plays are Maye and Stevenson for some value and consistency in your lineups. Kayshon Boutte at receiver for $3,500 in New England has seen six targets in his last three games. Austin Hooper ($2,900) at tight end may see extra snaps with Huter Henry nursing a sore foot, both are solid punts.

Cash: None

GPP: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cooper Kupp, Austin Hooper, Kayshon Boutte

Jaguars @ Lions (-13) (O/U 47)

The 8-1 Lions will look to clean up their execution after an ugly win against Houston. Jared Goff threw five picks, but he’s back home where it should be a walk in the park to a Jaguars team ready for the off-season. We may not want to go near any Jacksonville players at nearly a two-touchdown spread, especially for cash games. Let’s dive into this blowout game script, shall we?

The second-overall offense in football hosting the 29th-ranked defense in the league may get out of hand by halftime. Grab any share of Lions for DFS on the slate, as it may be a free-for-all for fantasy points at Ford Field. Even the defense gets a thumbs-up facing a Mac Jones-led football club. All are safe for cash/GPP contests, especially David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs who will be chewing up the clock in the second half if Detroit is up heavy.

Mac Jones looked good early on last week in his first start of 2024 running in a score in the first quarter, but that was it. Just 111 yards passing with two picks. He faced a harsh Minnesota defense, but Detroit’s will be no picnic either. It will be a full fade for me for Jacksonville until I see Trevor’s replacement puts it on paper.

Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST

Update: Sam LaPorta is Out

Colts @ Jets (-4) (O/U 44)

These two teams in this game are just about mathematically out of the playoff race as the Colts take on the Jets on the East Coast. Both will be playing to save face as they have been underwhelming clubs, especially the Aaron Rodgers-manipulated Jets. I don’t expect the field to hover around this matchup, so for deep tournaments, it would be a great spot for some Jets and Colts players.

Sitting at 3-7 the Jets are toast this season, and as of now, their future is in limbo. But Aaron Rodgers at age 40 continues to love the spotlight on him, especially when facing weaker opponents. Indianapolis ranks in the league’s bottom tier defending both sides of the football, and Rodgers is licking his chops. He may have lost a few steps with age, but his weapons are crisp. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Davonte Adams are all GPP shots in lineups.

Indy appears to have thrown in the towel for 2024 as they revert back to Anthony Richardson to start at quarterback. The second-year signal-caller out of Florida was benched in Week 9 because of his inability to move the chains completing only 49% of his passes and turning over the football. We love the Jets’ DST at their price on DraftKings at $2,800 and should be used heavily in cash and GPP formats. For the Colts to have a shot in this game, it will rest on the back of Jonathan Taylor. The Jets have been gashed by opposing running backs, allowing over 130 yards per game with 14 touchdowns.

Cash: Breece Hall, Jets DST

GPP: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Jonathan Taylor

Raiders @ Dolphins (-8) (O/U 44)

Vegas returns from their bye week and fly out to Miami to face off against the Dolphins. Both clubs are also on the outside looking into the playoff picture, and will most likely be playing for employment in 2025. Dolphins are big favorites, so let’s take a peek at who we can roster.

Vegas’defense has been a turnstile all year, and a cheat code for DFS players when they appear on the slate. They’ve allowed a total of 25 touchdowns, ten of them to the running back while also allowing 130 yards per game. De’Von Achane is a full go for cash and Tyreek Hill becomes a GPP play, we can’t fade the cheetah even though he has disappointed managers this season. His price has dropped to the low price of $7,300 on DraftKings and has one of his best matchups of 2024, a great spot to roll the dice on Hill.

The Raiders will roll out, and Gardner Minshew will come out of the bye to take back the quarterback position. Miami put Matt Staford and the Rams in a choke hold Monday night, keeping them out of the endzone the entire game. At only $3,000 on DraftKings, the Dolphins DST is a staple for cash and GPP tournaments against this depleted Raiders team on the road. Tight end Brock Bowers will see a ton of coverage as their only weapon on offense and will receive some consideration on the slate, as the position has been a dumpster fire for fantasy.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Miami DST

GPP: Brock Bowers, Tyreek Hill

Browns @ Saints (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Cleveland also returns from a week off and will visit New Orleans to battle the Saints in another game with little meaning other than tryouts for next season. Both clubs have seven losses in the year and one of them will have eight on Sunday Night. Although it’s a low total for the game, we have a narrow spread, which is interpreted to be a bit back and forth in the game flow. Let’s take a look.

Jameis Winston will return to The Big Easy in a Browns uniform for the first time facing his former squad. And what a matchup that will be waiting for him on the field. The Saints are in full tank mode as they are in the bottom five of teams to allow the most rushing and passing yardage in the league. A Browns’ stack of Jameis, Cedrick Tillman, and David Njoku is viable and affordable in GPPs this week, along with the newly reinstated Nick Chubb to the starting lineup at running back.

The Saints will have an uphill battle against a stingy Browns defense fresh off two weeks rest. Not to mention their starting offense is practically on IR except Alvin Kamara, who is way too pricey at $8,200 on DraftKings for me. MVS shocked the world after catching two touchdowns for 109 yards, but he is way too boom or bust even at only $4,400. The only DFS move that makes sense to me in this game is the Browns DST at $2,600, a cash game play in my opinion.

Cash: Browns DST, Cedrick Tillman

GPP: Nick Chubb, Jameis Winston, David Njoku

Seahawks @ Niners (-6.5) (O/U 49.5)

The later games kick off with an NFC West matchup as the Seahawks travel to the Bay Area to face the Niners. The division is up for grabs as all four teams are within one to two games out of first place. The 50-point total will draw the field for plenty of ownership on both sides, so saddle up while we weigh out our options for DFS.

The Niners bounced back last weekend with the return of Christian McCaffrey after missing the first ten weeks of the season, Now with one week under his belt expect them to turn up the volume on their Unicorn at running back. Seattle offers a wonderful matchup, allowing close to 140 yards per game, with 9 touchdowns scored by the position. Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle if he plays, get the green light for cash and tournaments this week.

In their first meeting, San Fransisco easily took care of business back in Week 6, scoring 36 to Seattle’s 24. DK Metcalf and JSN were watched heavily in that game but allowed running back Kenneth Walker to feast, catching eight balls out of the flat for 37 yards and a score. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant also had decent performances, back then, giving us the idea Kyle Shanahan may double down against the Seahawks by eliminating DK Meycslf and Jackson Smith Njigba. Also keep an eye on Fant’s status, if he’s out then A J Barner. Seattle players are all tournament plays this weekend..

Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy

GPP: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kenneth Walker, Noah Fant,

Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5) (O/U 44)

Atlanta will look to bounce back after an upset loss on the road to a depleted Saints roster. But they’ll be at Mile High Stadium to face a Broncos team that may still be salty after a blocked field goal crushed their dreams of beating the Chiefs. Both squads have plenty to play for so expect some tenacity on both sides of the field.

Denver showed some poise at Arrowhead Stadium, thanks to their defense and rookie Bo Nix’s calm and cool decision-making with the football. Atlanta has been generous to opposing offenses for the season (20th overall) but maybe even more so this weekend with both of their starting corners Mike Hughes and De Alford already ruled out. Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton have become a very sneaky pairing on the slate and are nice for leverage in tournaments.

Atlanta plays the fourth-ranked defense on the road. The defense allows only 3.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Bijan has become the engine of the Falcons’ offense but I will never say to fade him or play him in tourneys. Patrick Surtain will shadow Drake London, so we should stay away, this might be a Kyle Pitts week. Denver is 17th in DVOA to opposing tight ends, so I’d say he’s good to go if all the pressure leans to Bijan and London.

Cash: None

GPP: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts

Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (U/O 46)

Welcome to the Main Event of Week 11, another Bills vs. Chiefs matchup that never gets old. Kansas City remains undefeated entering the weekend as Buffalo also stands tall in the AFC at 8-2. The total seems low this year, probably because that defense under Stevie Spags has just been suffocating. But the Bills’ high-octane third-ranked offense is nothing that the Chiefs have been exposed to yet in 2024. It will be the most popular game on the slate, so let’s dive in.

Buffalo had this game circled on their calendar all year, as Josh Allen has come up short in his last three postseason matchups with KC. But the Bills will be a little shorthanded on skill players come Sunday, as Dalton Kincaid will join Keon Coleman on the bench this week with a leg injury. Amari Cooper may also miss another week due to his wrist, so Buffalo will be rolling with replacements. Dawson Knox at $3,500 becomes a lock for cash and tournaments alongside Allen and James Cook. Khalil Shakir’s price has crept up to $6,300 on DK so I’m not sure to pay that high unless Cooper is out. Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins would be the pay-down options at receiver in that scenario as well.

It’s nothing new for the world champs on offense this week, you should know who to target for DFS. No Pacheco again, so it will be another Kareem Hunt week at running back. Patrick Mahomes under $7K is very tasty for tournaments since nobody will be interested. And finally, Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are all good to go to wrap up the breakdown with a bow. Justin Watson and Xavier Worthy see the field 75% of the game, so they also are great punts who will float under the radar in my opinion.

Cash: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox

GPP: James Cook, Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, Justin Watson, Amari Cooper (if healthy, otherwise go Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: MIAMI DOLPHINS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We did it again last MNF as our “Presidente” took down a showdown. Showing the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Dolphins and Rams. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Running Back

The Rams rush defense is towards the bottom half of the league in most metrics. According to DVOA they have the 22nd best rush defense. As for the results on the field, the Rams allow 135.1 yards/game on the ground which is 8th most. They allow the 14th most points to RB’s mainly due to the fact they’ve allowed 6 rushing TD’s.

The Dolphins backfield is always blurry due to the several mouths to feed. But De’Von Achane always rules the roost due to his explosive playmaking ability. Achane is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 37 receptions in 7 games. Good news is, the coaching staff is adjusting and getting the ball in his hands more. In Week 8, he had 58% of the snaps compared to 46% for Raheem Mostert. In week 9, Achane saw 69% of the snaps compared to 23% for Mostert. Some of that had to do with the game situation, but in all Achane is the clear #1 and deserves consideration for MVP and CPT tonight.

Rookie RB Jaylen Wright saw 6 carries last week. But the only way I see him paying off is if there is an injury to one of the top 2 ball carriers.

Tier 1: De’Von Achane

Tier 2: Raheem Mostert

Value: Jaylen Wright

Wide Receiver

The passing game is where you want to attack the Rams. While they have pedestrian stats against the run, their pass D is one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles allows the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They also allow 225 passing yards per game which is 8th worst in the league. According to DVOA, they have the 23rd best pass defense. Looking at their DB’s, PFF ranks DB Darious Williams as the 37th best cornerback and their other starting CB is Cobie Durant who is ranked 77th.

And who can forget some of the big games WR’s have had this year already against the Rams. Four receivers have posted 100-yard games, including last week’s 7 catch, 180-yard output by Jaxon Smith Ngigba.

If Hill bears through the pain and winds up playing, he has the best chance to be the 5th WR with a huge game against the Rams. Waddle is always WR2 and performs better with Tua at QB so he’s in play as a Flex spot. Beckham is a nice punt play as he’s going up against his former team which gives him some motivation to play well.

Tier 1: Tyreek Hill

Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle

Punts: Odell Beckham Jr

Tight End

As with the WR’s, the Rams struggle against TE’s too. They allow the 6th most fantasy points to this position. This includes monster games by Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft.

Jonnu Smith is playing like WR2 for Miami as he’s 3rd on the team in receptions trailing just Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. His only issue is he’s found the endzone just once this season. If Hill is healthy, it will be tough for Smith to break the slate. But remember, it’s a showdown so all we need him to do is pop for more than other WR’s in the game. And that’s something that is highly possible based on the Rams coverage schemes.

Tier 1: Jonnu Smith

Tier 2: Durham Smythe

Punt/Fadeable:

LA RAMS

Running Back

It’s beautiful when you get a team and coach that believes in the workhorse running back. And that’s exactly what we have in LA with HC Sean McVay and his star RB Kyren Williams. Last week alone, Williams saw 99% of the snaps. That included 97% of the RB touches. This is clearly Williams backfield and that makes him my top player on the board tonight.

The other thing to consider is that Miami has struggled against the run this year. They are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 120 yards/game on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the 9th most points to RB’s this season as they’ve allowed 10 rushing TD’s to RB’s, tied for 2nd most in the NFL.

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

Tier 2: Don’t waste your time

Wide Receiver

The Rams wide receiver room is finally healthy, and that’s probably the biggest reason for their recent good play as LA has won three straight. The problem is, it’s hard to predict who will be the big game beneficiary as the offense takes what the defense gives them. The other issue is that the Miami DB’s, Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, for one of the defensive duos in the league. PFF ranks Ramsey as the 2nd best CB this season and Fuller as the 23rd. Combined, along with their other DB’s, the Dolphins have allowed the 4th least points to WR’s. But DVOA isn’t as high on them as they rank the Dolphins 27th in pass defense. So there may be room to attack a formidable part of this team.

I rank Puka as the WR with the highest ceiling based on his ability to get downfield. He’s a threat to break a play from any spot on the field. Kupp is more of the possession type that they’ll move around the formation and create matchups to get him 8-10 targets (or more). Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but that was predicated on Puka getting kicked out in the 1st quarter.

Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson

Cheap Options: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

This was supposed to be a breakout year for Rams TE Colby Parkinson. But he has not broken out. So far this season, he has just one game with more than 50 yards. And he’s been shutout of the endzone. The Dolphins are good against TE’s, allowing the 10th fewest points to that position. I’m fading Parkinson in most of my lineups as the Rams have too many options and the Dolphins are vulnerable against the run so I foresee Parkinson more involved in the blocking game tonight.

Tier 1: Colby Parkinson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they both have great receiving corps. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Kyren Williams but I also like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and De’Von Achane.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane

FDMVP Tier 2: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua

FDMVP Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tua Tagovailoa

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill

DK CPT Tier 2: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

DK CPT Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa

DK CPT Punt: Jonnu Smith

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Kyren Williams
Puka Nacua
Tyreek Hill
Cooper Kupp
De’Von Achane
Matt Stafford
Tua Tagovailoa

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Jaylen Waddle
Jonnu Smith
Demarcus Robinson
Raheem Mostert
Jason Sanders
Joshua Karty
Odell Beckham Jr

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Tutu Atwell
Colby Parkinson
Dolphins D
Rams D
Jaylen Wright

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have many stars to choose from and they all see a high volume. There is not a lot of players that fall in the value bucket so you’ll need to choose your stars wisely.
We are projecting 25+ touches for Kyren Williams. Highest priced player for a reason but make sure you get him in all lineups.
De’Von Achane saw his highest snap count last week. Dolphins are desperate for a win and need to get their playmaker the ball. Consider him the Dolphins top offensive player tonight.
I have a feeling this could be a Tyreek Hill game. We’ve seen a receiver put up huge numbers from almost every team the Rams have faced. Remember Jauan Jennings and his 3 TD game?
I like Puka Nacua the most out of the Rams WR’s. He always carries an injury risk but he’s the big play maker in LA’s receiving room.
Both QB’s are in play. Neither will rack up big yards on the ground. But the potential for 2+ passing TD’s is real with both signal callers. I would not play both in the same lineup because you need to get the other high-priced players involved. But if you’re going 4/2 or 5/1 with a lineup then definitely consider a QB.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
I’m not playing either defense as they both rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in points allowed and yards allowed.
I like Odell Beckham as my cheap option tonight. He’s made for the bright lights of LA.
Jonnu Smith or Jaylen Waddle will have a good game. There are not enough balls to go around for both to put up points. So keep them apart in your lineups.

Favorite prop for the game: Tyreek Hill longest reception over 26.5 yards (-110)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Ten

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had our first big week of the NFL season last week going 3-1-1 in our posted game bets and hitting on 3 of 4 prop bets in Discord (including a +180 ATD bet). Then we started off this week with another winner as we cashed the Bengals at +6.5 on Thursday Night Football. So things are trending upwards as we look to get back, or over, the 0.500 mark this week. It’s taken a while, but staying consistent and fading the public has started to put money in our pockets.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 10 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 18-20-1)

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 at CAROLINA PANTHERS (930am EST)

Reminder, this is a European game, so you have to get your bets in early for this one. The Giants and Panthers are in Munich for the final game of the season being played overseas. Both teams are 2-7 and each showed some fight last week, including a win by the Panthers over the Saints. To think this is almost a touchdown spread seems wild, considering how bad the Giants have been this year. But the troubles have mainly been at home, where New York is 0-5 with a point differential of -67. On the road, they are 2-2 with a point differential of +4. And this week, they are as far from home as possible.

On the other hand, the Panthers pulled off a big win behind QB Bryce Young as they beat the Saints 23-22. Considering they lost 47-10 to the Saints in Week 1, this was a massive turnaround and one that could provide momentum for the second half of the season. But I’m not buying it. Despite the win, Carolina is still the worst team in football with a -146 point differential. When they lose, they lose big. Each of their 7 losses in by double digits. So, if you think the Giants will win, chances are it will be by a wide margin.

Also consider the betting market is showing significant smart money on the Giants. The public is pouring in 67% of the bets on Carolina but just 28% of the money.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa gave everything they had on MNF against Kansas City despite being completely shorthanded on offense and defense. Yet, the Chiefs snuck out another one score victory with an OT win against the Bucs.

Now Tampa has a short week to prepare for San Fran who is coming off a bye. And news coming out of the bay is that star RB Christian McCaffrey will be activated for the game tomorrow.

This just looks like a tough spot for a Bucs team that struggles to stop the pass and is playing on fumes against a fully rested opponent in the 49ers.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Colts couldn’t have looked much worse last week in their primetime matchup on SNF versus the Vikings. Indianapolis managed just 6 offensive points and 227 total yards on way to a defeat in Minnesota. It’s left many to question whether benching QB Anthony Richardson was the right move. But HC Shane Steichen has stuck to his guns and once again handed the QB reigns to Joe Flacco. The Bills, on the other hand, pulled out an impressive win over the Dolphins despite being outgained by 50 yards and losing the time of possession battle.

The Bills win last week gave them a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. At this point, the division is pretty much wrapped up as the Jets are in 2nd place at 3-6 overall. The Colts are sitting at 4-5 and playing a must win game. I’ll take the hungrier team in this matchup to pull off the outright win and keep their season alive. Add to that, the Bills have their arch-nemesis on the schedule next week in the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like a classic trap game and look ahead spot.

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are coming off another dominant performance. This time against their most hated rivals in the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is now 7-1 and look like the class of the NFL. This week they take their 6 game winning streak to Houston to face off against the 6-3 Texans. Houston is took a loss to the Jets on TNF in Week 9 despite outgaining the Jets by 30 yards. The main reason for the loss was the redzone, as they converted just 1 of 4 opportunities from inside the 20.

The books are taking big money on Detroit this week with 83% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Lions. Yet the opening line has moved from Detroit -4 to Detroit -3.5. Houston may have the services of WR Nico Collins this week which would be a boost to their offense. But they have enough on the defensive side to keep this game close as they rank 2nd in overall defense. I’ll fade the public here and take the Texans who will surely be motivated as a home dog in primetime.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

LA CHARGERS

The Chargers defense is solid and will keep Tennessee under 20 points. QB Justin Herbert is having a great season with 10 TD’s to only 1 INT. The recipe for success in LA is to play tough defense, run the ball and win the turnover battle. They’ll do all three tomorrow en route to their 6th win this season.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 10

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are moving right along through the NFL season as we are past the midway point and grinding our way week-to-week in DFS. This slate gets cut down to 10 games thanks to a few teams on bye, but we’ll still have plenty to work with. Let’s not waste any more time and cut right to the Breakdown, the injuries are piling up for the season and we have a lot to chop it up about!

Sunday Main Slate 11/10/24

Bills @ Colts (+4) (O/U 46)

Buffalo will keep the pedal to the metal as they land in Indianapolis to battle the Colts in our kickoff of Week 10. Joe Flacco looked like Joe Flacid last weekend and will need to step up his game against the top dog in the AFC East if he wants to keep Indianapolis in the playoff race. The 46 total is decent, so we should have no worries about taking a slice of this game on the slate for lineups.

Besides Josh Allen who is a lock for cash games week in and week out, what other Bills can be viable this weekend against a Colts’ defense that ranks in the bottom ten of the league against the run and the pass. Keep an eye out for Amari Cooper’s wrist injury, if he sits out again we may want to double down with Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and or Dalton Kincaid. James Cook will see a run defense that allows 150 yards per game and could be worth every penny of his $7K salary on DraftKings.

Indy will run it back with Flacco again and hope he will be able to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Second-year wideout Josh Downs has become the clear-cut target share leader in the receiver room with a 27% target share for the season with nine last weekend from Flacco. But the running game will need to be established first, so expect to see plenty of Jonathan Taylor against the Bills’ 31st in DVOA to opposing running backs.

Cash: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor

GPP: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Josh Downs

Update: Michael Pittman and Keon Coleman are out.

Steelers @ Commanders (-2.5) (O/U 45.5)

The schedule is beginning to get tougher for the league’s arguable QB1 going into this weekend Jayden Daniels as the Steelers visit the Commanders. Vegas is not intimidated by the Steelers’ defense giving them a 45.5-point total, so we may see some back-and-forth potential between Wilson and Daniels. Let’s see how this may play out.

The secondary has been beefed up in Washington this past week as the Commanders traded for Marshon Lattimore with the Saints. They’ve only been allowing 184 yards through the air before the trade, so expect Wilson to not be as effective down the field. Pittsburgh may lean more on their running game, where Washington has struggled, allowing over 140 yards per game. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will offer some GPP appeal in the $6K range at running back the week for DFS.

Washington is rolling with the rookie Daniels under center, winning five of their last six games and having the third-best overall offense in the league. If Daniels can stay elusive from the Steelers’ pressure, then Terry McLaurin may have enough time to shake Joey Porter to get open, who currently ranks 77th in coverage with a +14.6 rating. Also, watch the status of running back Brian Robinson who is still nursing a hamstring. If he sits out again it will be more reps for Austin Ekeler out of that explosive backfield, and priced under $6K on DraftKings.

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Najee Harris

GPP: Russell Wilson, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Austin Ekeler
Update: Brian Robinson is OUT

Falcons @ Saints (+3.5) (O/U 46)

Here we have an NFC South matchup as Atlanta travels to The Big Easy to take on the Saints. New Orleans fired their head coach Dennis Allen this week, so we may see some changes to the scheme in the upcoming weeks. Seems like they are preparing for a rebuild as they also traded All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore this week to the Commanders for a third and fourth-round pick.

Atlanta should have a walk in the park this week on offense, as the Saints were 26th overall on defense before the Lattimore trade and Allen firing. Even Carolina locked up a win against this roster, so this game should be cake for Cousins and the crew. Just keep an eye on Drake London during the week as he suffered a hip pointer in the first quarter of last week’s game. The Falcons’ DST is also a solid option this week for DFS.

As for the Saints, it’s still the Alvin Kamara show, who has shown us to be extremely durable this season. He is currently ranked number one among running backs in targets and receptions, and averaging 21 fantasy points per game this season. He may see plenty of stacked boxes when on the field, so keep him in tournaments at his very high salary. Perhaps let’s go back to the Taysom Hill well that I suggested in last week’s Breakdown due to the lack of pass-catchers and running backs. He put up 16 fantasy points, catching five balls for 51 yards and a score while adding 41 yards rushing. Still underpriced at $4K on DraftKings.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Kirk Cousins

GPP: Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Kyle Pitts, Drake London (if healthy) Darnell Mooney, Saints DST

Vikings @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 47)

The Vikings are back on track and will look to keep their momentum out in Jacksonville on Sunday against the 2-7 Jaguars. It’s only a four-point spread but it’s a game that can easily get out of hand considering how bad the Jags have been defensively. A great game to pick pieces from for lineups because of each team’s desire to put the ball in the air against their terrible secondaries…Enjoy!

Jacksonville is nearly dead-last in points allowed, passing with total yards allowed per game, it’s gross. Play plenty of purple jerseys this weekend in your lineups, especially Jefferson who is always good for 20-plus fantasy points. Aaron Jones has calmed down recently, putting up a few duds in the last couple of weeks. This week may be his get-right spot as we all witnessed Saquon go bananas at home against that run defense, and he’s used heavily in the fourth quarter to eat up the clock.

The Jags’ season is pretty much dead in the water, and playing for pride the rest of the way. Minnesota does offer the worst overall DVOA in the passing game, so if Trevor Lawrence can shake the left shoulder soreness he could quadruple his value again like he did in Phila. His best receiver Brian Thomas is pricey ($6,600 on DK), but would be a target funnel along with tight end Evan Engram and Parker Washington. Stay clear of the Jags’ backs this week since Minnesota has been tough in the trenches (82 YPG allowed)

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, Evan Engram, Parker Washington, MIN DST

Update: Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play, and Mac Jones is to start.

Patriots @ Bears (-6) (O/U 39)

The Patriots narrowly lost by a field goal in Tennessee and will be in over their heads on Sunday at Soldier Field against the Bears’ fifth-ranked defense. The Bears sit in a perfect bounce-back spot after dropping two straight games and will aim to make mincemeat of the Pats at home. It’s a low total with a wide spread so let’s see where to attack here for DFS.

The Patriots have been a punching bag to their opponents all year, allowing the football to move up and down the field no matter who they are facing. This will turn out to be a game for Caleb Williams and the Bears to let out some frustration, especially after last week’s 29-9 loss to the Cardinals. Pick your poison of Chicago’s skill players for GPPs this weekend. Their defense is also in play.

If I were to risk my hard-earned cash on anybody for the Patriots, it would be on Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bears allow over 130 rushing yards per game and Stevenson has been their multi-faceted back that has scored four times in his last two games. He is a discount on his DraftKings salary ($6,400), as the only game in town for New England take your shot in GPPs. If you feel the Bears will also struggle offensively this week, the Jerod Mayo Pats’ defense is another bargain on DK for $2,500.

Cash: None

GPP: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, Bears DST, Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots DST

Broncos @ Chiefs (-8) (O/U 41.5)

We get the world champs this week back on the slate as they’ll host their division rival Denver Broncos. Kansas City will look to stay undefeated in front of a home crowd while the Broncos look to stay above .500 on the road. Pat Mahomes is coming off his best performance of the season and should be able to replicate it this week as an eight-point favorite.

The Broncos have been solid all season on defense, ranking third on the season in overall points allowed, but not as of late. Baltimore gashed them for 41 last weekend, as Lamar Jackson threw for three scores- two to Zay Flowers. Unless this was a hiccup from this Vance Joseph defense we could see another bludgeoning by the Chiefs. Mahomes is always a lock and his weapons of Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are also viable. Kareem Hunt averaging over 20 carries per game has proven to be a true workhorse again for this offense. But he may be a bit pricey salary-wise for DFS this week.

Head Coach Sean Payton has truly been gifted at developing quarterbacks over his career, as rookie Bo Nix has been a top 12 quarterback on the season so far. He’ll see a true test of skill against a top defense in Kansas City where DC Steve Spagnuolo has suffocated his opponents. I am not investing in any Broncos this week, as the Chiefs currently rank first against running backs and hold their opposition to 18 points per game.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs DST

Niners @ Bucs (+5) (O/U 51)

The Niners are fresh and healthier off a Week 9 bye and will travel to Tampa to face off against the Bucs. It looks to be pretty high-scoring as the only game on the slate with a total over 50. Tampa came close to defeating the Super Bowl champs on Monday night, but fell short on a coin toss in overtime and allowing them to score a TD. They’re five-point dogs at home, but I believe it will be a much closer game because of Baker Mayfield’s competitiveness.

The Bucs defensively have been a dumpster fire, averaging well over 30 points per game in their last three contests. Mainly giving up chunks of yardage and end zone targets through the air, look for Brock Purdy to continue to expose their holes on defense. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings will all feast from Tampa’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Cristian McCaffrey is set to make his debut this week, but I do not expect a full workload if he does in fact play. He is still priced up for DFS so best to keep him out of your lineups until we get a full sample.

Baker will do his best to keep up with the Niners’ pace so expect him to do what he has been doing…chuck the pigskin. He’s logged well over 120 attempts in his last three games, but his problem is the talent level at receiver has been depleted due to injuries. Tight end Cade Otton has been his go-to guy since Godwin and Evans went down in Week 7, racking up 25 catches on 31 targets for 256 yards and three scores. He’ll be a cash game play but his fellow receiver teammates who all lurk in the low $4K range on DraftKings should be used in GPPs.

Cash: Cade Otton, Brock Purdy

GPP: Baker Mayfield, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Sterling Shepard, Jauan Jennings, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White

Titans @ Chargers (-7.5) (O/U 38)

The Titans, who finally get a win to go a miserable 2-7 against the Patriots last week, travel to LA to face a Chargers’ defense that has put their opponents in a vice offensively (ranked first in points allowed). LA has won two of their last three and look comfortable sitting at 5-3 going into this matchup as a touchdown favorite. Not too much to decide on here for DFS as both clubs are pretty cut and dry to dissect.

The low total and wide point spread tell us to start up that Chargers’ defense, obviously, but who else is worth a shot for LA? Well, Justin Herbert seems to be throwing the football more often these days, and pretty efficiently. He’s passed for 280 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Not lighting up the scoreboard but for only $5,200 on DraftKings, that’s four times his value. Pair him up with Quentin Johnston or Ladd McKonkey for even more bang for your buck, or just stay safe with JK Dobbins at running back who’s been a bell cow all season. All are solid GPP options.

Tennessee will continue to focus on their run game as they play hide the quarterback with Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. Tony Pollard has carried a questionable tag for two weeks straight, yet he still will see twenty-plus carries when he is on the field. The Titans will get every dollar out of Pollard this year, but for DFS he may be priced out at $6,900 on DraftKings. Consider Calvin Ridley at only $5,700 as another option as he is the last man standing seeing close to 20 targets since the departure of DeAndre Hopkins to KC. GPP only fellas.

Cash: Chargers DST

GPP: JK Dobbins, Justin Herbert, Ladd McKonkey, Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley

Eagles @ Cowboys (+7) (O/U 42)

The white-hot Eagles will visit the Dak-less Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in what looks to be a beatdown in front of a home crowd in Dallas. Philadelphia will look to make a statement to their division rival Cowboys and keep in the race against Washington for first place. Hopefully, this game is not over by halftime and Dallas will keep the Eagles honest.

Philadelphia will do what they do best offensively, enforce the running game by utilizing one of the best O-lines in football. Dallas already ranks 30th defending against it, so basically prepare to see another blood bath in the boxscore between Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Their pass catchers are always in play, but keep an eye on Devonta Smith as he’s been missing practice this week due to a hamstring. Tight end Dallas Goedert is set to return after missing four weeks and should see some work especially if Devonta is out.

Cooper Rush will look to pick up where he left off in Atlanta filling in for Dak Prescott, as he threw for 115 yards and a touchdown. But Phila’s DC Vic Fangio may have his number this weekend as Rush has no quality running game behind him and will focus entirely on smothering CeeDee Lamb. Startup that Eagles DST, it could get ugly. However, Rush will have to get the ball out elsewhere if Lamb doesn’t get open, and perhaps tight end Jake Ferguson. Keep Dem’ Boyz in tournaments only.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST

GPP: Cee Dee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith (if healthy)

Jets @ Cardinals (-1) (U/O 46)

New York is on the brink of making the playoffs and desperately need a win to stay alive, They’ll be the on the road to face the Cardinals, who currently have first place in their division. There’ll be loads of talent in State Farm Stadium to wrap up the Main Slate this week, so with a lot at stake we can expect both clubs to come out swinging.

It’s win or start looking for a new job for Gang Green, so expect the Jets to be ramped up for battle. Arizona sits in the bottom tier defensively, ranking 22nd on the ground and 24th through the air. New York’s offense is pretty condensed, we’ll see Rodgers utilize Breece Hall out of the backfield and Wilson and Adams to get the majority of the targets. All useful in cash or GPP lineups.

As well as the Cardinals have been record-wise, for fantasy it’s been a roller coaster. Inconsistency has been all over Kyler Murray along with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, yet running back James Conner just keeps padding up his stats. Only two of nine weeks he has scored less than ten fantasy points, and against a Jets’ run defense that gets hammered every week for 130-plus yards per game, run him back.

Cash: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, James Conner

GPP: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

NFL DFS

Sunday Main Slate 12/1/24

Seahawks @ Jets (+2) (O/U 41.5)

Cash: Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall

GPP: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams

Texans @ Jaguars (+5) (O/U 43.5)

Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins

GPP: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Evan Engram

Titans @ Commanders (-5.5) (O/U 44.5)

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry Mclaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Jeremy McNicohls ( if Ekeler and Robinson are out)

Steelers @ Bengals (-3) (U/O 47.5)

Cash: Joe Burrow, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase

GPP: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Friermuth

Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5) (O/U 45)

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride

GPP: James Conner, Kyler Murray, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5) (O/U 48)

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Justin Herbert

GPP: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Will Dissly, Lad McConkey, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnson

Colts @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Cash: Hunter Henry, Pats DST

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Adonai Mitchell

Bucs @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 46)

Cash: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton

GPP: Rachaad White, Tre Tucker, Adam Thielen, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette

Rams @ Saints (+2.5) (O/U 49)

Cash: Puka Nacua, Alvin Kamara, Matt Stafford

GPP: Taysom Hill, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling

Eagles @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 50.5)

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)

GPP: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Sunday Main Slate 11/24/24

Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 41.5)

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, KareemHunt/Isiah Pacheco (watch for injury reports)

Update: Isiah Pacheco is OUT…Kareem Hunt will get the lion share of touches

Bucs @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)

Cash: Cade Otton, Malik Nabers

GPP: Tyrone Tracy, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans (if healthy), Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito, Wan’Dale Robinson, Bucs DST

Update: Daniel Jones was released by the Giants

Lions @ Colts (+7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta (if healthy), Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor

Patriots @ Dolphins (-7) (U/O 46)

Cash: De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 39.5)

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST

Titans @ Texans (-8) (O/U 42)

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Texans DST, Tony Pollard

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Pollard will get all the work

Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)

Cash: Brian Robinson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke Schoonmaker (if Ferguson is out)

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Washington DST

Update: Ferguson is out…take the free space at tight end with Schoonmaker

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41)

Cash: Bo Nix, Brock Bowers

GPP: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Audric Estime`, Ameer Abdullah (if Mattison and White are out)

Update: Mattison and White are doubtful… Ameer Abdullah and Derek Laube are more valuable at running back