NFL DFS

NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend

We’re down to just eight teams left and this week, we have all the games on one main slate. That’s how we’re going to treat it and the teams left present a ton of opportunities. This is a tougher slate with a lot of star power and multiple paths to go. No matter who you play, you’re going to feel like you left players off that could kill you. It’s a good slate to pull some three max entries but there is one team that is my primary focus. I may not be out on a limb in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend and we’ll figure out where we’re heading!

Rams at Packers, O/U of 45.5 (Packers -6.5)

Rams

QB – Salary isn’t the easiest to fit everyone in, but I’m not convinced it’ll be worth it to save money and play Jared Goff this week. Getting him at a ceiling game to match the other studs seems unlikely. His throws last week did not look great coming off a thumb injury and even though more time will help, Goff was sub-par a lot of the year. I’d want him to hit nearly 24 DK points to make it worth sacrificing a stud and that happened just five times all season. He only had a 0.40 pDB on the season, good for just 25th in the league. One of the biggest issues was the RZ attempts, with just 56. That wasn’t even in the top 20 and even in what could be a negative game script, I don’t love this route.

RB – The entirety of the field will be on Cam Akers this week and I can’t say they’re wrong. First off, it’s just a volume play. Over the past four games, he’s recorded 101 touches which is enormous. He’s under $6,000 which is ridiculous after a 28.6 DK point game last week. On top of that, Green Bay has had issues on the ground all year. The Packers were 18th in DVOA agains the run and the Rams are sixth in attempts per game. They also gave up over 2,200 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Even if the game gets too far out of hand, Akers should stay involved enough in the passing game. Honestly, the Rams likely try to run the ball to death and control the clock for 35+ minutes.

WR – The duo of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both look like values, especially if we feel better about Goff’s thumb. Kupp really is cheap and is coming off nine targets last week. I always favor the cheaper player and this week is certainly an extension of that. Woods should see more of Jaire Alexander, even though I don’t believe it to be a true shadow situation. Alexander was top 15 in pPT, passer rating allowed and catch rate allowed on the season.

The slot rates are striking for these players though as Kupp is at 55% and Woods is at 28.6%. With the overall targets, RZ targets and EZ targets being about identical for these players, Kupp is the path of least resistance and cheaper on top of it. They’re the only two receivers I would consider from this team.

TE – You can argue that Tyler Higbee is a better play if the game goes out of whack, but I’m not really buying it. The Rams just don’t run him on a ton of routes normally and there’s some different options at the position this week. His target share is under 12% and he only has a total of nine RZ/EZ targets on the entire season. Even at $3,000 that wouldn’t cut it. We should also note that the Packers were a top three team in DK points given up to the position with just five scores on the season.

D/ST – The low price is interesting in theory. The Packers did lose their left tackle David Bakhtiari in Week 17, and that is a big loss. Perhaps if the Rams have a healthy Aaron Donald you could entertain this but you have to know just how risky it it. The Pack only allowed a 14% pressure rate, lowest in the league and just 20 sacks. LA might be the best defense in football, but this is a strength on strength matchup to be sure.

*Update* Donald is in line to play and it’s an interesting route. I’m not sure any defense is going to stand out here.

Cash – Akers, Kupp, Woods

GPP – D/ST

Packers

QB – The Packers as a team are fascinating because they have arguably the toughest matchup on the board. I would suspect the Chiefs and their stack is the most popular on the weekend and they should be. That leaves a Packers stack of Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams as super intriguing. The Rams are the fourth-best passing defense by DVOA and only the Saints have a higher mark left in the field. We all know what Rodgers is capable of with a 48:5 TD:INT ratio on the season, the highest pDB at 0.66, the fourth-most points per game and the seventh-most yards. The fact he’s under $7,000 doesn’t make a ton of sense and I’m going to be watching to see how highly rostered he’ll be this weekend.

RB – Aaron Jones has been may nemesis all season long and I don’t think that changes here. I likely don’t play much, if at all. The salary is palatable and when the games were competitive and mattered down the stretch, Jones was more towards the 70% snap rate that we need. Jones does have a 14.8% target share in the offense, which helps maintain some floor but the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. They did allow some big gains for Chris Carson last week and maybe Jones can find some of those same holes. I just don’t have a ton of lean to play him. Akers should see just as big a workload for $1,100 cheaper or you could go up to Alvin Kamara. Jones is in an odd pricing range.

WR – This is one of the most fun individual matchups of the week as Adams squares off against Jalen Ramsey. He was the fourth-best corner in pPT on the year at just 1.30 but Adams was about the best receiver in football. The easiest argument to make is to play Tyreek Hill because the matchup isn’t nearly as difficult, but to cast aside Adams is dead wrong. Ramsey is very good but the Adams/Rodgers combo is lethal. If you’re playing a three max, I would lean two of the Chiefs players and one Rodgers/Adams. It’s actually slightly cheaper for the second combo and gives you a different path. Adams has rarely been shut down to the point of not worth playing at all this year.

If you think that Adams struggles, that has ripple effects through the offense since he carries a target share over 33%. Not only would Aaron Jones get a few more receptions, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard become more involved as well. You’re really only playing these two as boom or bust options, so I would lean MVS. Lazard hasn’t looked the same after his core muscle surgery, and MVS has shown ceiling lately. He’s also shown a 0 and a -0.4, so know what you’re getting into. The snaps have been about equal and MVS plays mostly on the outside, with a slot rate under 24%.

TE – The other player who could benefit if Adams is getting slowed down is Robert Tonyan. He still confuses me. Tonyan broke out with 11 touchdowns but only has 11 RZ targets and seven EZ targets on the year, along with an 11.8% target share. It tells me that if he doesn’t score, he’s likely not going to do very much. In the games he didn’t score, Tonyan has put up a 2.7, 6.3, 1.5, 12.9, 5.2, 5.5 and a 0. The floor is there, and it’s scary this week. The Rams did allow seven scores but also gave up the ninth-fewest yards. I think I’m going elsewhere this week.

D/ST – If we can fit them, that’s fine but we always want to build the lineup first and fill in defense last. The Rams are going to have a quarterback with some kind of issues no matter who they play and Green Bay generated 41 sacks on the season with 18 turnovers. I just think we have a hard time fitting them.

Cash – None that I feel are really needed

GPP – Rodgers, Adams, Jones, Tonyan, MVS

Ravens at Bills, O/U of 49.5 (Bills -2.5)

Ravens

QB – There’s a reason we want Lamar Jackson on just about every slate, and that was on full display last week. He turned in another relatively crappy passing performance, with under 180 yards and a pick. His fantasy points came from the 136 and a touchdown on the ground, good for about 22 of his 28.8 DK points. It’s no secret that Lamar can do that every game out and he’s one of the only 3-4 quarterbacks that I would play on this slate. Buffalo did pull off a 12th ranked finish in DVOA against the pass but they weren’t giving a ton of resistance to the Colts passing game. With the rushing upside Lamar brings every game, we have to be interested. It wouldn’t be that surprising if Jackson led the weekend in rushing yards in my opinion.

RB – I really thought that once the playoffs kicked off, the Ravens would give their best running back the bulk of the work but that wasn’t the case. J.K. Dobbins only touched the ball 10 times compared to eight for Gus Edwards, and you can’t play a back in this kind of split at this salary. Not only does he have to contend with Edwards and Jackson for rushing opportunities, Dobbins isn’t utilized in the passing game at all. He had just one target last week and just 24 on the season. He would have to score multiple touchdowns and/or break a long one to pay off. There’s not a huge path for him to get more than about 12-14 touches so I’m not likely to go here. At the same time, I’m worried to fully fade him in a run-based offense against the 17th ranked DVOA against the run.

WR – This is simply Marquise Brown or bust. There’s not other receiver that I’m looking at because last week Dez Bryant, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead combined for three targets. Hollywood saw nine targets last week, which was the second-highest of the season. He’s been a little bit more involved lately with nine, eight, four and seven targets over the past four games. The matchup isn’t as bad as some may think either, as we saw rookie Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton give the Bills secondary some issues last week. We have feared Tre White in the past but that hasn’t been the case this season with a 94.5 passer rating allowed and a 64.1% catch rate. I don’t love him like I did last week, but he’s in play. I will be much heavier on this next player though.

TE – Mark Andrews was disappointing last week but this is a great bounce-back spot and I’m in. I mean, Jack Doyle lit up this defense. Let that one sink in. The tight ends have been a sore spot for Buffalo all season long. They were bottom five in about every category you can imagine all year long, including yards allowed, receptions and touchdowns. For Andrews, he missed two games and finished just 10 targets off the team lead and led in RZ and tied for the lead in EZ targets. The salary is still very affordable after a dud last week, making it easier to pull off a two tight end lineup this week.

D/ST – They’re coming off a week where they shut down Derrick Henry but I’m not sure this is the exact same spot. What’s interesting is the Ravens blitzed at the highest rate in the league this year, 45.1%. The Steelers were second and they did give Buffalo some issues for a half in their matchup. Baltimore logged 23 turnovers and 40 sacks on the season, and if the weather is nasty I can get on board.

Cash – Andrews, Lamar

GPP – Hollywood, Dobbins, D/ST

Bills

QB – I think Josh Allen is going to end up fourth in terms of priority at quarterback for me, behind Jackson, Rodgers and one still not discussed. He flashed everything that we target in a quarterback last week with 324 yards passing, two touchdowns and then added 54 yards rushing and another touchdown. We talked about it last week, but he finished top 10 in RZ passing attempts and rushing attempts at his position. The touchdown equity is among the highest it can get at this position. Baltimore finished 10th in DVOA against the pass, but Indy was higher and gave Allen little problem. Allen was fourth in pDB on the season and was 14th in completion rate under pressure. If he can figure out the blitzes, he could smash yet again.

RB – It’s a chalky piece but at the salary, it’s hard to ignore Devin Singletary. He’s got the backfield to himself with Zack Moss on the IR and out for the playoffs. They were splitting snaps and touches, but we could see Singletary get 12-14 carries and tack on another 2-4 receptions. That style of volume is too good to pass up at this price tag, regardless of the level of chalk. Salary is tight this week if you’re shooting for a big money stack. Baltimore was also top 12 in DVOA against the run, but I would expect OC Brian Daboll to get Singletary in space as much as he can to utilize Singletary’s strengths. Playing Singletary and Akers should get you 35-40 touches for barely $10,000 on DK.

WR – Stefon Diggs scored over 27 DK points and the site dropped his price. Alrighty then. Diggs continues to prove why he’s one of the best receivers in football, going for 128 yards and a touchdown last week. Diggs would likely see some of Marcus Peters and that’s advantage Diggs. Peters was solid with a 1.70 pPT but also allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 92.6 passer rating over 102 targets. Diggs is not going to have a problem here in my eyes. The weather could be the only slight issue, but even if it snows I think that gives Diggs the advantage. He knows where the route is going and the secondary is going to have a harder time reacting to it.

Cole Beasley has a strength on strength matchup against Marlon Humphrey in the slot, but Beasley is cheap as well. Humphrey only allowed a 58.9% completion rate and the 12th lowest YPR at 10.4. Beasley accounted for right about a 20% target share on the year and his 8.0 aDOT was the lowest of the corps. He’s clearly the safety valve in the offense and interesting to me even in a tough spot. I also have interest in John Brown. After burning half the field last week with a goose, folks will be hesitant to go back to the well. That alone makes it a good spot and Brown only needs one play to pay off as the deep threat in the offense. Gabriel Davis had a solid game last week but he only played about 50% of the snaps and would be highly volatile.

TE – It was a good thing for Dawson Knox that he caught a touchdown because nothing else was really there for him. Knox had been more involved in the offense lately but this was a step back. I think it’s harder to punt this week with the options we have at the top end. If most people play the high end options and they’re well into the double-digits, Knox scoring under five DK would really be a killer. Baltimore only gave up five touchdowns on the year, not exactly the spot that I’m excited for.

D/ST – I really don’t want to play Buffalo this week. Baltimore’s offense is clicking for the most part and they really have shown issues through this season. They did force 26 turnovers on the season but they also allowed almost 500 yards off offense last week, including 163 rushing yards. That’s not a good sign against the best running team in football.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Singletary

GPP – Brown, Beasley

Browns at Chiefs, O/U of 57.5 (Chiefs -10)

Browns

QB – It doesn’t always work out, but you could argue to play Baker Mayfield if he’s going to be playing catch-up or in a shootout all game. The script of the Monday Night Baltimore game when he scored 34 DK works in theory. However, that’s all it is – theory. It’s the same train of thought that we mentioned with Knox. If Baker scores 16 or so DK and the other big name quarterbacks are around 30, you’re behind the eight ball. Baker was only 18th in pDB on the season and 25th in points per game, but the seasonal data isn’t the best. Mayfield had almost a month-long stretch where his games were sabotaged by weather. There’s upside here but there’s also significant downside with too much volatility for me. I would only have shares in 20 max this week.

RB – If this game stays close, it’s very likely Nick Chubb is having a monster game. The Chiefs finished 31st in DVOA against the run and gave up the ninth-most rushing yards in the league. It can be hard to keep the games close enough stick with the run but this is the best chance for the Browns. Cleveland was in the top five in rushing attempts and top there in rushing yards per game and you’d like to think Chubb is going to get a big workload here. He got 24 touches last week but that was in a script with a massive lead by the end of the first quarter.

If the game goes wonky for Cleveland, Kareem Hunt could be the ideal pivot (especially off Singletary chalk). Since Chubb has come back in Week 10, Hunt has 103 touches to 146 for Chubb, not quite the gap you might think. Chubb also leads in RZ carries, but just a 25-16 rate. Not only could he poach a touchdown, he profiles more as the passing down back which the Browns may need a lot of. I’m interested and not for any ridiculous “revenge” narrative.

WR – The Browns barely needed to pass since they were up about 275 points five minutes into the game, and Jarvis Landry still got eight targets. In a game script that at the very least will be more competitive, I would expect 10+ and he is super duper cheap. I think the best guess here is the Chiefs try to shade him a lot with linebackers and kick Tyrann Mathieu into the slot. He only has a 29% slot rate and L’Jarius Sneed is at 23.9%. The Chiefs don’t play just one slot corner, so they could continue to utilize different looks to try and limit Landry. I still wouldn’t shy away at this price for the volume expected.

I was on Rashard Higgins last week but the situation is different. Statistically, Bashaud Breeland has been the Chiefs best corner. He was inside the top 10 in pPT, catch rate and passer rating allowed . The small catch is he only played 11 games, but it’s still a 59 target sample size. The volume could be there more than it was last weekend but the corner matchup is far worse for the Browns outside receiver.

TE – If we’re not going to play Andrews, Hooper is my next man up at the position. He’s very affordable coming off an 11 (!) target game last week. It was also an area that KC struggled in all year. They allowed the eighth-most receptions, fifth-most yards and nine touchdowns. Since the Odell Beckham injury, Hooper is second on the team in RZ and EZ targets, not to mention the 14.8% target share. The RZ and EZ work is of significant interest, because he played two fewer games than Landry (who leads in both). It’s not hard to construct a big game for Hooper here this week.

D/ST – Congratulations on beating Pittsburgh, and it was well deserved but I will not play Cleveland’s Swiss cheese secondary against the most explosive offense in football.

Cash – Chubb, Landry, Hooper

GPP – Baker, Hunt

Chiefs

QB – Sweet sassy molassey does this Chiefs stack look awesome. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played in a couple weeks, but that is about the only concern we can come up with here. The Browns finished 25th in DVOA against the pass and were just shredded by a dysfunctional offense. You can argue that they played shell coverages all night, and that’s fine. Mahomes isn’t going to chuck four picks and the Browns are going to struggle here by all indications. Mahomes finished sixth in deep ball attempts, second in yards and fourth in touchdown passes all in just 15 games. He is my number one option on the board. I know, very risky.

RB – The jury is still out on Clyde Edwards-Helaire playing or not, but this is the leverage spot. I’m sure the Chiefs passing stack will be the most popular on the slate. What happens if CEH (or Le’Veon Bell) go nuts here instead? Even James Conner put up points and barely touched the ball. Cleveland finished just 17th in DVOA against the run and gave up about 1,800 scrimmage yards. If fading the main components of the Chiefs, you’re already tempting fate. You may as well go all in and hope CEH hangs 20-25 DK. He recently did that against the Raiders, and Mahomes “only” out up 25 DK. A significant chunk of those points came on the last drive on top of it.

*Update* We still have no real news with CEH. Hopefully something emerges Saturday before kick of the Packers game.

WR – Remember what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last week? Yeah, Tyreek Hill is going to get that same matchup on Kevin Johnson around 41% of the time in the slot. Now, I think we can all agree that the Hill/Mahomes combo is A LOT better than the Ben/JuJu combo, and Hill is in one of the biggest smash spots on the slate. The last time I felt this good about him, he went NUCLEAR for 60 DK. I don’t think that will happen, but he’s going to torch Cleveland. Not only has Johnson allowed a 107.6 passer rating and a 69.8% catch rate, he runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. Wheels. Up.

Much like CEH, Sammy Watkins is the leverage in this passing game if he plays. We need some clarity there as he hasn’t practiced since Week 16. He plays the slot a little less at 34.7% and since returning from injury has a target share under 13%. With Mahomes as the QB, it’s only going to take a play or two to pay it off and poach a Hill or Kelce touchdown. If Watkins is out, expect Demarcus Robinson to be the value receiver everyone plays. This game stack as a whole looks super appealing as it’s the highest O/U on the slate at 57.5 points.

*Update* Watkins is out, which leaves Robinson as a likely popular play. You could zig with Mecole Hardman and hope for a bomb, which is entirely possible this week.

TE – I’ll take all the Travis Kelce, thank you. Getting a two tight end lineup with Andrews is one of my favorite plays of the slate at this juncture. Kelce finished just five points behind Stefon Diggs for the WR3 in PPR settings. He’s too cheap, has a 25.6% target share and 30.4% share of the RZ carries. He’s easily the TE1 on the slate and worth every penny (and then some). We’re not spending too much time here. Reek and Kelce are in glorious spots and I have a hard time arguing the fade. If we’re going to take a stand, what better spot to do it than the KC stack and get different elsewhere?

D/ST – Much like the Packers, I have no issues here with the Chiefs. Baker has been playing well, but he’s been “on schedule” for the most part meaning that the Browns can rely on the strong run game and Baker is smart and takes shots. If this one gets out of hand, KC has the 16th ranked DVOA against the pass and could turn the ball over. They forced 22 turnovers on the season and the 11th ranked pressure rate at 24.8%.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP – CEH (or Bell), Watkins (or Robinson)

Buccaneers at Saints, O/U of 52 (Saints -3)

Buccaneers

QB – If the Bucs want to exorcise the demons, I very much think Tom Brady will have to lead the charge. This is no easy spot as the Saints were top three in total DVOA, against the run and against the pass. He threw the ball 40 times last week despite leading the entire way and the Saints should be able to mount more of an offense than Washington did last week. Since Week 11, Brady has only been under 40 pass attempts twice and once was when he got yanked at the half against Detroit. He still threw 27 times. Brady finished first in air yards per attempt and second in attempts on the season. The pDB is 0.53 which was 10th but at this volume he would be in play for me in 20 max.

RB – We’re not sure if Ronald Jones will play this week or not. He got hurt pre-game last week and scorched everyone with a zero, while Leonard Fournette got all the run. The Saints allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards on the season to go along with only 356 receiving yards. I don’t believe either RoJo or Fournette would be “must plays” in a vacuum but Fournette would offer PPR value to go with a Chiefs stack if RoJo is out.

*Update* Arians says that Fournette will start but if RoJo is up to speed, he’ll get his normal reps. I’m out on this mess.

WR – I don’t know what it is, but Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore do NOT care for each other. They’ve gotten into a fight on the field in past years, and the last three games when Evans has lineup up opposite of Lattimore he has six total targets and zero receptions.

Tampa likely tries to get Evans away, but he totaled just about 18 DK points combined in Saints games this year. At the prices, I think Evans is strictly GPP and nothing more.

Instead, I’ll focus on Chris Godwin who was targeted 12 times last week. He gets one of the better matchups in the NO secondary with Chauncey Grander-Johnson in the slot. I have to give it up to Gardner-Johnson overall as he was targeted 112 times and only ceded a 53.6% catch rate and a 1.30 pPT. This is all about Brady and Godwin, no to mention the salary. Lastly, Antonio Brown is a conundrum. He looks too cheap every week (and still does) but was only targeted three times last week. He scored so he went for 3x but the targets were still sketchy overall. AB could see Janoris Jenkins who allowed a 1.70 pPT but I don’t wonder if the Bucs do their best to flip AB and Evans as far as matchups.

TE – After seeing Rob Gronkowski go for zero points on just one target, I’ll admit I’m a bit rattled. Cameron Brate saw six targets last week and he has these random games that pop up. Brate would have gone for 20 DK had he not dropped a touchdown in the fourth quarter. I think the best way to look a this situation is to avoid it. Hooper is right next to Gronk in salary, and you can’t afford to take the chance that Brate repeats this. I’m staying away overall and just focusing on the receivers.

D/ST – On paper it’s not the best spot for them. The Saints only gave up a 14.6% pressure rate when Drew Brees was under center and Brees himself only had eight turnovers in 13 games. I think the difference is Brees is still not looking al the way there to my eye. Be it the rib injury that he has to still be feeling or just the age, his throws lack a whole lot of zip. A ball-hawking unit that forced 26 turnovers could force some in this game.

Cash – Godwin, AB, D/ST

GPP – Brady, Evans, RoJo or Fournette

Saints

QB – Brees dropped back and threw the ball 39 times last week and still couldn’t crack 19 DK points. Tampa has had significant issues on the defense as of late, and I really want to make a case for him. He’s cheap and the Bucs have the best run defense in football but I can’t quite get there with Brees. In fairness, he was 12th in pDB on the season but the 5.9 air yards per attempt ranked 36th in the league. I just think the risk of playing Brees doesn’t match the potential reward and would rather just give a try for Baker in this range.

RB – This is an interesting spot for Alvin Kamara. He was fine last week and touched the ball 25 times. He also faces the best run defense and weirdly wasn’t targeted that much last week. Two targets for Kamara? What in the world is that about? The Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs over the course of the season at 101 and Kamara was targeted 14 times in the course of two games this year. The real issue comes in when deciding to play Kamara or the Chiefs studs and I’m not sure I see a ton of likelihood of that happening. My path is taking cheaper backs and pairing them with Kansas City, and hoping Kamara is just average.

WR – Michael Thomas is sure to be popular since he came back onto the scene and paid off with an 18.3 DK point game. MT was targeted seven times in a winning game script, and could see it get towards 10 this week. Based on how he’s lined up in his limited action, MT would see a good bit of Jamel Dean who played well this year. He only allowed a 1.50 pPT and 9.6 YPR, but if Thomas is full go for the first time all year he’s simply not nearly expensive enough.

We need to know if Tre’Quan Smith is coming back for the game. If not, Deonte Harris would be right back in the mix, as he saw seven targets last week. Smith would really muddy the waters and we’ll update this on Friday when he have a better idea.

TE – Much like the other tight ends we talked about, I don’t want to mess with Jared Cook. I can play Hooper and Andrews is not that much more expensive. Cook is pricey for a player that busts if he doesn’t score and his target share for the year was under 13%. Even the RZ work wasn’t great at 16.9% and that was without Thomas in the lineup for most of the season. The Bucs did have some issues with tight ends but have their linebacker Devin White in line to get back in action this week.

D/ST – The Saints generated pressure just over 25% of the time and that can be an issue at times for Brady and the Bucs. It’s not something we should get too excited about, but the Saints scored 16 and 17 DK in their matchups this year. If they fit, I’m totally fine with them.

Cash – Thomas, Kamara, D/ST

GPP – Brees, Cook, secondary receiver TBD

Core Four

Chiefs stack of the main three pieces and Singletary for cash games

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday

We are back with the second three game slate of the weekend, and this one is a bi trickier from the salary perspective. Fitting two of the best running backs in fantasy with a top quarterback might be difficult, but we’re going to figure out where the best path is. Even for three games, there’s a lot to get to in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday!

Ravens at Titans, O/U of 54.5 (Ravens -3.5)

Ravens

QB – This slate is a lot different than Sunday at the quarterback position, because I think we only have one very true ceiling option. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill gives him a run for his money, but Lamar Jackson stands out with his rushing ability as the lead dog. He finished the season in style with at least 22 DK in the last five and 26 or higher in three of them. In a game where he’s in desperate need of a win, I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Jackson isn’t out to win it by himself. Even in what was somewhat considered a down year, Jackson was seventh in points per game, third in pDB, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in clean completion rate. He had another 1,000 yard rushing season and finished second in RZ carries. The Tennessee defense finished 30th in DVOA against the pass and Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants. It’s more a question of how to fit him.

RB – I said last week that J.K. Dobbins and I still feel that way to some extent. Let’s look at how he got there. He only had 13 carries on the day, a bit of a red flag to start with. With no receptions, that’s not ideal. He also ripped off a 72-yard touchdown which was worth 16 DK points with the 100-yard bonus. Now, nobody is saying that he can’t replicate that feat against the Titans, who rank 16th in DVOA against the run. Baltimore is one of the best run offenses in football. The other factor to weigh is Dobbins have been involved in blowouts for three straight weeks. He’s only played about half the snaps in those three games. The hard part is trying to play him with the other two big backs that we’ll get to here in a bit.

WR – Hollywood Brown is really going to tempt me on this one. The Ravens are one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football, and no player surpassed 100 targets this year. Brown was the closest at 99 and he led in air yards share at 37.8%. Brown also led the team in yards and tied for the lead in receptions. Anytime we can get a speedster against the Tennessee secondary, I’m all the way in. The Titans allowed 22 touchdowns (tied for the third-most) and the fourth-most yards.

I hope game log watchers are freaked out by the goose egg Brown threw in the first meeting. Brown is cheap and if he gets on Malcolm Butler, I like his chances for a long bomb. The likelihood is the Titans match him with Adoree’ Jackson, who has the speed to keep up with him. The problem with that at least in the short-term, Jackson has been terrrrrible. He’s been targeted 13 times and has allowed 12 receptions, a 153.4 passer rating and a 3.40 pPT. I’m going to likely end up with some Hollywood this week.

The secondary target in the corps is tough. Willie Snead may or may not play, which in theory could open up a spot for Myles Boykin. I’m very hesitant to use secondary Ravens targets in this game.

TE – Just like Hollywood, Mark Andrews is probably too cheap for his role and matchup. Andrews leads RZ targets and only finished 10 targets behind Brown for the team lead overall. The Titans are average against tight ends and have given up eight touchdowns. He went for 20 DK the first go around and really the only issue is cap space. Can we prioritize a generally expensive tight end? It might be tough. There’s a lot of other players that will be on the forefront, and I’m interested to what we see as far as ownership for Andrews. There is no other reason to not play him against the worst DVOA defense in the field.

D/ST – There’s pretty much no way that I’m playing the Ravens defense. They’re over $3,000 and they have a tough matchup. While they’ve managed to force 22 turnovers, the Titans have only 12 turnovers on the year. That’s been the second fewest on the season and they only allowed 24 sacks on the season. There’s no need to attack this matchup and the only way they pay off is likely if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown. That is a possibility since the Titans were 28th in special teams DVOA.

Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

GPP – D/ST

Titans

QB – He doesn’t get a ton of attention all the time but Ryan Tannehill was one of the best fantasy options on the year. He finished second in pPD, ninth in points per game, sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is 10th in DVOA against the pass and only gave up 21 touchdown passes, tied for second-fewest in the league. It’s really not a great matchup but we shouldn’t cast him aside. He hit over 22 DK points in the first matchup and there’s so little to pick at with him. Unless you think the run game fails, I’m not sure he has the same ceiling that Jackson does. I would be more likely to spend lower at quarterback if going outside of Jackson.

RB – It already feels like Derrick Henry is going to be chalk and it scares the heck out of me to fade him. It’s also at least slightly worrisome to play him at this salary because the Titans defense is so bad, they can ruin any game script. You need at least 27 DK points for 3x, let alone anything else. The matchup isn’t overbearing with the Ravens being 12th in DVOA against the run, but it really feels like Henry is going for 35+ DK or under 10 and there might not be much in-between. Just look at the last five weeks. From last week moving back, he’s scored 39.0, 9.8, 28.2, 39.2 and then 6.9. It’s not a surprise that the two poor games came with Tennessee getting blasted on the scoreboard. My approach is to play three max on these slates, and I will have at least one lineup without Henry.

*Update* The move in GPP is to fade Henry for Kamara in my eyes. You’re trying to finish first, and if Henry duds you have a big leg up.

WR – The massive salary gap is back between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, with the difference checking in at $2,200. The seasonal stats won’t reflect that as the air yards share is 2.5% difference, targets are only 14 apart, receptions are five apart and yards are under 100 apart. Brown does have a big advantage in touchdowns at 11-5, but past that they are very close. The big factor is choosing correctly, because they did not have big games together this year. Only twice did they both clear 15 Dk in the same game and once came against this Ravens team. Davis scored 19.3, Brown scored 16.2 and Henry scored 23.2.

There seems to be a good reason to believe that not all three of these Titans can crush together. If Henry is imposing his will, the passing game isn’t required to do as much. On the off chance that Henry gets slowed down, the receivers have to pick up the slack. Brown is going to mostly face Jimmy Smith, who played very well this year in his limited time. Over 45 targets, Smith only allowed a 59 passer rating and a 46.7% catch rate. Paying up at other spots likely leaves Brown out of my main builds, though he makes sense if you fade Henry. Davis should get Marcus Peters, who allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 62.7% catch rate. Davis could be a salary saver we just fall into since he’s so cheap.

TE – I probably don’t find myself playing Jonnu Smith very much on this slate. He’s kind of the AFC version of Tyler Higbee, but he scores more touchdowns. Smith is only running a route 65.8% of the time, which is 22nd among tight ends. He didn’t end the season in the top 15 in targets, receptions or yards but he did score nine touchdowns, third-most. With the Ravens only allowing five scores to the position, it’s not exactly the best matchup either.

D/ST – They are the worst defense of any team left in the field, have a 17.3% pressure rate (31st) and only 19 sacks. That’s a hard pass for me.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill

GPP – AJB, Davis, Smith

Bears at Saints, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -10)

Bears

QB – The Bears are the biggest underdog on the entire weekend, and by that logic we should at least consider Mitch Trubisky. If he’s going to be throwing a ton, we could get some much needed salary relief and possibly even garbage time stats. The issue with that approach is he’s still Trubisky, and even last week he threw the ball 42 times for just 252 yards. If he hadn’t rushed for 22 yards, Trubisky wouldn’t have even broken double-digit DK points. That’s the kind of floor he has and he only ended at a 0.46 pDB, 17th in the league. I would really prefer not to play him against the third-best DVOA unit against the pass. A GPP lineup with him and loaded at other positions does make some sense, even if it isn’t pretty on paper.

RB – David Montgomery is a back that the matchup would tell us to fade, but the workload might be too much to ignore. His price came down $800 and I know that playoff pricing can be a little looser, but he still racked up 31 touches last week. Over the past three weeks, he hasn’t been under 25 total touches and that includes 12 receptions. New Orleans does check in as the number two ranked DVOA against the run and the seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed. hey also controlled the backs in the passing game with just 61 receptions allowed, fourth-fewest. With so many other big backs on the slate, I wonder where Monty slots in ownership-wise. It might not be high enough.

WR – It’s be a very volatile back half of the season for Allen Robinson. Since Week 8, he’s had five weeks under 20 DK (what you need for 3x at his current salary) but he’s also had a 30 point effort and 27 point effort mixed in. If you’ve read for most of the year, you know that Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been a corner we’ve feared. Over 83 targets, he’s allowed a 14.2 YPR, 100.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. A-Rob seems underpriced and could go off in the Vegas game script, I just think it’s smart to realize what he’s been for this year. P.S. someone get this man a quarterback for once in his career!

We’ll update this end of things when we know more but Darnell Mooney is questionable and may not play. If he does, he’s going to be on my radar as a punt facing a good deal of Janoris Jenkins. Opposite of Lattimore, Jenkins has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. If Mooney is out, Anthony Miller is likely going to be very popular as a salary saver. Miller grinder a 12.8% target share on the year and if Mooney’s 16.5% share is out, Miller should be in a prime spot to benefit.

*Update* Mooney is out, which leaves Miller as what I’ll bet is very popular.

TE – Since the bye week, Cole Kmet has not played under 70% of the snaps and has been more toward the 90% mark the past three games. The rookie is on the field a ton, and that’s always such a big factor when we look for punts. Jimmy Graham has poached touchdowns to a very annoying degree, but Kmet has 33-19 targets in that time span. Graham has the touchdown lead at 3-1 but I’d rather take the snaps and targets in this price range. New Orleans had issues at times with tight ends as well, allowing them to score nine times, tied for fifth-most in the league.

D/ST – I suppose the Bears defense is about as low as we can be comfortable playing, although I don’t love them. New Orleans only turned the ball over 17 times all year, and Chicago forced just 18. The way New Orleans looked down the stretch and with their injuries/underperformers, Chicago could pay off in this spot.

Cash – Monty, Kmet as a punt, D/ST

GPP – A-Rob, Trubisky, Mooney if active

Saints

QB – You see Drew Brees in a playoff game at $5,700 and you feel like you have to play him, but there’s been some questions about him since coming back from injury. The TD:INT ratio stands at 6:3 which isn’t that great for Brees to start with. He’s been under 240 passing yards in two of three and has been living on the touchdowns, with three scores in two games. Brees just hasn’t passed the eye test that much and the ball doesn’t look great when he throws it. That’s not a huge surprise, as Brees was already 36th in air yards per attempt. The Bears are 13th in DVOA against the pass and even when he was healthy in the first matchup, Brees didn’t hit 20 DK. I’m not convinced we need to try to get him right, but the price is messing with me.

RB – We should see Alvin Kamara get back in time for this game, and you have to imagine that the NFL made sure the Saints played Sunday instead of Saturday. On the off chance he doesn’t play, Latavius Murray would be a lock at $4,500. Let’s figure on Kamara playing and with Brees back in, we know that Kamara will get targeted. Kamara had a 22.9% target share on the season and finished at 107 total. Chicago was second in DVOA against the run but gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. We know that on DK, Kamara is close to matchup-proof because of how many receptions he racks up.

WR – It appears Michael Thomas is back for this game and $6,300 has to be as low as he’s been since his rookie year. He only played seven games this year, but when he was active MT accounted for a 28.1% target share and a 43.6% air yards share. That’s way too much of an offense to be this low, especially with how many times MT could be targeted. The offense is going to flow through him and Kamara, as both could see 10+ looks. Thomas will see probably a mix of Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. They have played well with a pPT not over 1.80, a passer rating no over 90% and Johnson has allowed just a 56.8% catch rate. We just need to keep an eye on the health of Thomas heading into this game.

*Update* MT is active and an interesting stat – He and Brees have played all of 10 quarters together so far this year. That’s it.

Emmanuel Sanders will go back to being third fiddle in the passing game, and still have a tougher matchup against either corner not covering Thomas. Even with Thomas missing nine games, Sanders still din’t break 20% in target share, and that’s a worry. If he’s only gong to get 5-6 targets against the Bears, he’s not likely to be the best play.

TE – Playing Jared Cook depends on what weapons the Saints have available in this game. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes a bit of a hit. I’m not sure this is the truest measure considering how the season went, but Cook did lead the team in EZ targets with nine and tied for the lead in RZ looks. What’s somewhat interesting is the Bears let up 12 touchdowns to tight ends this year, third-most. They were also in the bottom six in receptions and yardage allowed, so this is a soft matchup. He got them the first game with a 5/51/1, but keep in mind that MT was still out as well. The price likely keeps me mostly off Cook.

D/ST – The Saints can bring the heat, racking up the fifth-highest pressure rate and 45 sacks on the season. Getting to Trubisky should lead to mistakes and New Orleans was a top 10 unit in DVOA on the year. I just don’t know if we can afford the highest-priced difference today.

CAsh – Kamara, Thomas

GPP – Brees, Cook, Sanders, D/ST

Browns at Steelers, O/U of 47.5 (Steelers -6)

Browns

QB – Baker Mayfield wound up with a solid game last week but he was scuffling early. If I felt better about the ceiling, I might be willing to take a shot but that ceiling is really in question. He’ll be down Joel Bonito, one of his offensive lineman in this one and head coach Kevin Stefanski due to Covid. The Steelers defense is missing corner Joe Haden, but they welcome back all the over stars that sat out last week. Baker doesn’t look like he’s anything special by the stats. He finished the year with a 0.45 pDB, 18th in the league to go with the 18th most passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Pittsburgh ended the season first in DVOA against the pass and had a 22:18 TD:INT ratio. Only the Dolphins had fewer touchdowns allowed with the same interceptions. Out of the bottom rung options, I have them ranked Brees/Baker/Trubisky.

RB – Nick Chubb missed the first game against the Steelers but he tried to make up for it with 108 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on just four carries. Pittsburgh looks tough with a fifth-ranked DVOA against the run but I’m not sure that’s totally reality. They allowed over 110 rushing yards per game (11th best) but have been gouged for 154 per contest over the past three weeks. They are vulnerable on the ground with all their missing linebackers. Chubb doesn’t have the target share that we prefer in this price range at just 5.2% but he’s been doing just fine without it. If you fade Henry, playing a duo including Dobbins and Chubb could be a somewhat unique combo. Kareem Hunt is really not the player we want on this slate. There’s too many backs that could get 20+ touches to go after one that has 10-12 touches in their future.

WR – I may not be in love with Baker, but I think a least one of the receivers is going to have a big day. Jarvis Landry is still way too cheap for his role, flirting with a nearly 30% target share since the Odell Beckham injury. Landry is running the majority from the slot, which would leave him on Mike Hilton for a lot of the game. Hilton has been solid over 52 targets with just a 59.6% catch rate allowed and a 1.60 pPT. However, Jarvis under $6,000 doesn’t make much sense.

A player I really want to have in some GPP’s is Rashard Higgins. With Haden out, that opens up a lot on the boundary. Perhaps the Steelers have Steven Nelson shadow him, but I’m not sure I’d make that bet. Even if they do, Nelson has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.90 pPT. Higgins is going to have some opportunity here and that secondary has shown some issues. Since OBJ has been down, Higgins has a 30.7% air yards share, tops on the team.

TE – I can never really decide on Austin Hooper. Every time I’ve kind of liked him this year, it hasn’t worked out. It’s not a sparkling matchup either as the Steelers tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Hooper does have an 18.5% target share since OBJ has been hurt but the 6.9 aDOT isn’t exciting. I think he’s fine, but I’m not going out of my way to play him.

D/ST – They can be worth a punt, depending how you feel about the Steelers offense. They jumped to life playing the Colts and maybe that’s all they needed to wake up. However, Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in the past few weeks. Cleveland does boast Myles Garrett and 38 sacks on the year to go with 21 turnovers. I lean towards not playing them, since their secondary can sabotage things.

Cash – Chubb, Landry

GPP – Baker, Higgins, Hooper, D/ST

Steelers

QB – It seemingly took forever, but we got a ceiling game from Ben Roethlisberger the last time out, with 28.5 DK against the Colts. Cleveland finished the season ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass, while giving up the 12th most passing yards and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns at 30. Is Ben a risky play? Yes, but he’s really got upside to tap into this game. The Steelers have no running game to speak of at all, finishing 28th in attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. I’m hard pressed to think why Big Ben won’t throw 40+ times here, and if the week off helped rest his arm he could be dangerous. Ben was only 22nd in pDB at 0.42 but still finished eighth in touchdowns in just 15 games.

RB – Those stats I just quoted about the Steelers run game? Yeah, doesn’t exactly make me want to go click on James Conner. He played 64% of the snaps and this is still mostly his backfield, it’s just not very good. Conner is might be a cheap way to get 12+ touches but it is an ugly route to take. He likely has to score to make it worth playing him even at $5,000. I will say that Cleveland finished 19th in DVOA against the run, so this isn’t the worst matchup he could have. The Steelers just haven’t given you much reason to believe he pays off.

WR – Give me all the Diontae Johnson. I mean, this isn’t news if you know me but just look at what he’s done in the last two games with Big Ben. Diontae was benched in the Buffalo game for drops in Week 14, and then responded with 16 receptions on 27 targets. TWENTY. SEVEN. In two games. Ben played terribly in the Bengals game and Diontae still managed 19.9 DK points. He led the team in targets at 144 and the target share was almost 23%. Best yet, Cleveland normally doesn’t use Denzel Ward to shadow so Diontae gets a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He was targeted 107 times and allowed a 105.0 passer rating.

Ward will see a lot of Chase Claypool, who has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.2 and no other starter is particularly close. Both Claypool and Johnson had air yard shares over 25%, but Claypool is going to be volatile just like he was all year. JuJu Smith-Schuster is always the forgotten man for me, because I’m just playing Diontae. JuJu finished with just 14 more PPR points on the season despite playing almost 200 more snaps. That’s over three games of action. Kevin Johnson plays the slot for Cleveland and has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and a 107.6 passer rating over 63 targets. If you want to double stack Ben, JuJu and Diontae are the players to go with in the receiving corps.

TE – Another way to get unique is playing Eric Ebron. He’s activated off the Covid list and had the second-most RZ targets on the season at 16. The 14.9% target share doesn’t look too shabby either and the pricing is really reasonable. Cleveland didn’t play well against the position, allowing 10 touchdowns and in the bottom six in receptions and yards allowed. If you’re living in the mid-range at tight end, Ebron is my first choice.

D/ST – The Steelers led the league in pressure rate, sacks, and finished second in turnovers forced. Mayfield wasn’t under pressure a lot at just 17.7% on the year, but Pittsburgh can still create havoc. The Browns also had just 16 giveaways, so Pittsburgh is only really a spend for me if I’m making no other sacrifices.

*Update* The Steelers welcome back inside linebacker Robert Spillane this week, a pretty significant boost to the run defense. I’m a little more comfortable going here now.

Cash – Diontae, Ebron

GPP – Ben, JuJu, Claypool, Conner, D/ST

Core Four

Lamar Jackson, Alvin Kamara, Dionte Johnson, Anthony Miller

Lamar and Kamara really speak for themselves at this point of the season. I think I may skip cash on this slate to fade Henry, so it’s a Ricky Bobby Slate – First or last. Diontae is Ben’s number one target in a must-win gameand I expect a big game from him tomorrow night. Miller is interesting. A potentially chalky Bears receiver is never going to be a sure thing. I LOVE moving up to Rashard Higgins where you can in GPP. It’s an $800 difference and people won’t jump that far. With no Joe Haden, I think Higgins gets a little loose tomorrow.

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday

We are back with the second three game slate of the weekend, and this one is a bi trickier from the salary perspective. Fitting two of the best running backs in fantasy with a top quarterback might be difficult, but we’re going to figure out where the best path is. Even for three games, there’s a lot to get to in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday!

Ravens at Titans, O/U of 54.5 (Ravens -3.5)

Ravens

QB – This slate is a lot different than Sunday at the quarterback position, because I think we only have one very true ceiling option. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill gives him a run for his money, but Lamar Jackson stands out with his rushing ability as the lead dog. He finished the season in style with at least 22 DK in the last five and 26 or higher in three of them. In a game where he’s in desperate need of a win, I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Jackson isn’t out to win it by himself. Even in what was somewhat considered a down year, Jackson was seventh in points per game, third in pDB, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in clean completion rate. He had another 1,000 yard rushing season and finished second in RZ carries. The Tennessee defense finished 30th in DVOA against the pass and Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants. It’s more a question of how to fit him.

RB – I said last week that J.K. Dobbins and I still feel that way to some extent. Let’s look at how he got there. He only had 13 carries on the day, a bit of a red flag to start with. With no receptions, that’s not ideal. He also ripped off a 72-yard touchdown which was worth 16 DK points with the 100-yard bonus. Now, nobody is saying that he can’t replicate that feat against the Titans, who rank 16th in DVOA against the run. Baltimore is one of the best run offenses in football. The other factor to weigh is Dobbins have been involved in blowouts for three straight weeks. He’s only played about half the snaps in those three games. The hard part is trying to play him with the other two big backs that we’ll get to here in a bit.

WR – Hollywood Brown is really going to tempt me on this one. The Ravens are one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football, and no player surpassed 100 targets this year. Brown was the closest at 99 and he led in air yards share at 37.8%. Brown also led the team in yards and tied for the lead in receptions. Anytime we can get a speedster against the Tennessee secondary, I’m all the way in. The Titans allowed 22 touchdowns (tied for the third-most) and the fourth-most yards.

I hope game log watchers are freaked out by the goose egg Brown threw in the first meeting. Brown is cheap and if he gets on Malcolm Butler, I like his chances for a long bomb. The likelihood is the Titans match him with Adoree’ Jackson, who has the speed to keep up with him. The problem with that at least in the short-term, Jackson has been terrrrrible. He’s been targeted 13 times and has allowed 12 receptions, a 153.4 passer rating and a 3.40 pPT. I’m going to likely end up with some Hollywood this week.

The secondary target in the corps is tough.

TE – Just like Hollywood, Mark Andrews is probably too cheap for his role and matchup. Andrews leads RZ targets and only finished 10 targets behind Brown for the team lead overall. The Titans are average against tight ends and have given up eight touchdowns. He went for 20 DK the first go around and really the only issue is cap space. Can we prioritize a generally expensive tight end? It might be tough. There’s a lot of other players that will be on the forefront, and I’m interested to what we see as far as ownership for Andrews. There is no other reason to not play him against the worst DVOA defense in the field.

D/ST – There’s pretty much no way that I’m playing the Ravens defense. They’re over $3,000 and they have a tough matchup. While they’ve managed to force 22 turnovers, the Titans have only 12 turnovers on the year. That’s been the second fewest on the season and they only allowed 24 sacks on the season. There’s no need to attack this matchup and the only way they pay off is likely if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown. That is a possibility since the Titans were 28th in special teams DVOA.

Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

GPP – D/ST

Titans

QB – He doesn’t get a ton of attention all the time but Ryan Tannehill was one of the best fantasy options on the year. He finished second in pPD, ninth in points per game, sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is 10th in DVOA against the pass and only gave up 21 touchdown passes, tied for second-fewest in the league. It’s really not a great matchup but we shouldn’t cast him aside. He hit over 22 DK points in the first matchup and there’s so little to pick at with him. Unless you think the run game fails, I’m not sure he has the same ceiling that Jackson does. I would be more likely to spend lower at quarterback if going outside of Jackson.

RB – It already feels like Derrick Henry is going to be chalk and it scares the heck out of me to fade him. It’s also at least slightly worrisome to play him at this salary because the Titans defense is so bad, they can ruin any game script. You need at least 27 DK points for 3x, let alone anything else. The matchup isn’t overbearing with the Ravens being 12th in DVOA against the run, but it really feels like Henry is going for 35+ DK or under 10 and there might not be much in-between. Just look at the last five weeks. From last week moving back, he’s scored 39.0, 9.8, 28.2, 39.2 and then 6.9. It’s not a surprise that the two poor games came with Tennessee getting blasted on the scoreboard. My approach is to play three max on these slates, and I will have at least one lineup without Henry.

WR – The massive salary gap is back between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, with the difference checking in at $2,200. The seasonal stats won’t reflect that as the air yards share is 2.5% difference, targets are only 14 apart, receptions are five apart and yards are under 100 apart. Brown does have a big advantage in touchdowns at 11-5, but past that they are very close. The big factor is choosing correctly, because they did not have big games together this year. Only twice did they both clear 15 Dk in the same game and once came against this Ravens team. Davis scored 19.3, Brown scored 16.2 and Henry scored 23.2.

There seems to be a good reason to believe that not all three of these Titans can crush together. If Henry is imposing his will, the passing game isn’t required to do as much. On the off chance that Henry gets slowed down, the receivers have to pick up the slack. Brown is going to mostly face Jimmy Smith, who played very well this year in his limited time. Over 45 targets, Smith only allowed a 59 passer rating and a 46.7% catch rate. Paying up at other spots likely leaves Brown out of my main builds, though he makes sense if you fade Henry. Davis should get Marcus Peters, who allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 62.7% catch rate. Davis could be a salary saver we just fall into since he’s so cheap.

TE – I probably don’t find myself playing Jonnu Smith very much on this slate. He’s kind of the AFC version of Tyler Higbee, but he scores more touchdowns. Smith is only running a route 65.8% of the time, which is 22nd among tight ends. He didn’t end the season in the top 15 in targets, receptions or yards but he did score nine touchdowns, third-most. With the Ravens only allowing five scores to the position, it’s not exactly the best matchup either.

D/ST – They are the worst defense of any team left in the field, have a 17.3% pressure rate (31st) and only 19 sacks. That’s a hard pass for me.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill

GPP – AJB, Davis, Smith

Bears at Saints, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -10)

Bears

QB – The Bears are the biggest underdog on the entire weekend, and by that logic we should at least consider Mitch Trubisky. If he’s going to be throwing a ton, we could get some much needed salary relief and possibly even garbage time stats. The issue with that approach is he’s still Trubisky, and even last week he threw the ball 42 times for just 252 yards. If he hadn’t rushed for 22 yards, Trubisky wouldn’t have even broken double-digit DK points. That’s the kind of floor he has and he only ended at a 0.46 pDB, 17th in the league. I would really prefer not to play him against the third-best DVOA unit against the pass. A GPP lineup with him and loaded at other positions does make some sense, even if it isn’t pretty on paper.

RB – David Montgomery is a back that the matchup would tell us to fade, but the workload might be too much to ignore. His price came down $800 and I know that playoff pricing can be a little looser, but he still racked up 31 touches last week. Over the past three weeks, he hasn’t been under 25 total touches and that includes 12 receptions. New Orleans does check in as the number two ranked DVOA against the run and the seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed. hey also controlled the backs in the passing game with just 61 receptions allowed, fourth-fewest. With so many other big backs on the slate, I wonder where Monty slots in ownership-wise. It might not be high enough.

WR – It’s be a very volatile back half of the season for Allen Robinson. Since Week 8, he’s had five weeks under 20 DK (what you need for 3x at his current salary) but he’s also had a 30 point effort and 27 point effort mixed in. If you’ve read for most of the year, you know that Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been a corner we’ve feared. Over 83 targets, he’s allowed a 14.2 YPR, 100.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. A-Rob seems underpriced and could go off in the Vegas game script, I just think it’s smart to realize what he’s been for this year. P.S. someone get this man a quarterback for once in his career!

We’ll update this end of things when we know more but Darnell Mooney is questionable and may not play. If he does, he’s going to be on my radar as a punt facing a good deal of Janoris Jenkins. Opposite of Lattimore, Jenkins has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. If Mooney is out, Anthony Miller is likely going to be very popular as a salary saver. Miller grinder a 12.8% target share on the year and if Mooney’s 16.5% share is out, Miller should be in a prime spot to benefit.

TE – Since the bye week, Cole Kmet has not played under 70% of the snaps and has been more toward the 90% mark the past three games. The rookie is on the field a ton, and that’s always such a big factor when we look for punts. Jimmy Graham has poached touchdowns to a very annoying degree, but Kmet has 33-19 targets in that time span. Graham has the touchdown lead at 3-1 but I’d rather take the snaps and targets in this price range. New Orleans had issues at times with tight ends as well, allowing them to score nine times, tied for fifth-most in the league.

D/ST – I suppose the Bears defense is about as low as we can be comfortable playing, although I don’t love them. New Orleans only turned the ball over 17 times all year, and Chicago forced just 18. The way New Orleans looked down the stretch and with their injuries/underperformers, Chicago could pay off in this spot.

Cash – Monty, Kmet as a punt, D/ST

GPP – A-Rob, Trubisky, Mooney if active

Saints

QB – You see Drew Brees in a playoff game at $5,700 and you feel like you have to play him, but there’s been some questions about him since coming back from injury. The TD:INT ratio stands at 6:3 which isn’t that great for Brees to start with. He’s been under 240 passing yards in two of three and has been living on the touchdowns, with three scores in two games. Brees just hasn’t passed the eye test that much and the ball doesn’t look great when he throws it. That’s not a huge surprise, as Brees was already 36th in air yards per attempt. The Bears are 13th in DVOA against the pass and even when he was healthy in the first matchup, Brees didn’t hit 20 DK. I’m not convinced we need to try to get him right, but the price is messing with me.

RB – We should see Alvin Kamara get back in time for this game, and you have to imagine that the NFL made sure the Saints played Sunday instead of Saturday. On the off chance he doesn’t play, Latavius Murray would be a lock at $4,500. Let’s figure on Kamara playing and with Brees back in, we know that Kamara will get targeted. Kamara had a 22.9% target share on the season and finished at 107 total. Chicago was second in DVOA against the run but gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. We know that on DK, Kamara is close to matchup-proof because of how many receptions he racks up.

WR – It appears Michael Thomas is back for this game and $6,300 has to be as low as he’s been since his rookie year. He only played seven games this year, but when he was active MT accounted for a 28.1% target share and a 43.6% air yards share. That’s way too much of an offense to be this low, especially with how many times MT could be targeted. The offense is going to flow through him and Kamara, as both could see 10+ looks. Thomas will see probably a mix of Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. They have played well with a pPT not over 1.80, a passer rating no over 90% and Johnson has allowed just a 56.8% catch rate. We just need to keep an eye on the health of Thomas heading into this game.

Emmanuel Sanders will go back to being third fiddle in the passing game, and still have a tougher matchup against either corner not covering Thomas. Even with Thomas missing nine games, Sanders still din’t break 20% in target share, and that’s a worry. If he’s only gong to get 5-6 targets against the Bears, he’s not likely to be the best play.

TE – Playing Jared Cook depends on what weapons the Saints have available in this game. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes a bit of a hit. I’m not sure this is the truest measure considering how the season went, but Cook did lead the team in EZ targets with nine and tied for the lead in RZ looks. What’s somewhat interesting is the Bears let up 12 touchdowns to tight ends this year, third-most. They were also in the bottom six in receptions and yardage allowed, so this is a soft matchup. He got them the first game with a 5/51/1, but keep in mind that MT was still out as well. The price likely keeps me mostly off Cook.

D/ST – The Saints can bring the heat, racking up the fifth-highest pressure rate and 45 sacks on the season. Getting to Trubisky should lead to mistakes and New Orleans was a top 10 unit in DVOA on the year. I just don’t know if we can afford the highest-priced difference today.

CAsh – Kamara, Thomas

GPP – Brees, Cook, Sanders, D/ST

Browns at Steelers, O/U of 47.5 (Steelers -6)

Browns

QB – Baker Mayfield wound up with a solid game last week but he was scuffling early. If I felt better about the ceiling, I might be willing to take a shot but that ceiling is really in question. He’ll be down Joel Bonito, one of his offensive lineman in this one and head coach Kevin Stefanski due to Covid. The Steelers defense is missing corner Joe Haden, but they welcome back all the over stars that sat out last week. Baker doesn’t look like he’s anything special by the stats. He finished the year with a 0.45 pDB, 18th in the league to go with the 18th most passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Pittsburgh ended the season first in DVOA against the pass and had a 22:18 TD:INT ratio. Only the Dolphins had fewer touchdowns allowed with the same interceptions. Out of the bottom rung options, I have them ranked Brees/Baker/Trubisky.

RB – Nick Chubb missed the first game against the Steelers but he tried to make up for it with 108 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on just four carries. Pittsburgh looks tough with a fifth-ranked DVOA against the run but I’m not sure that’s totally reality. They allowed over 110 rushing yards per game (11th best) but have been gouged for 154 per contest over the past three weeks. They are vulnerable on the ground with all their missing linebackers. Chubb doesn’t have the target share that we prefer in this price range at just 5.2% but he’s been doing just fine without it. If you fade Henry, playing a duo including Dobbins and Chubb could be a somewhat unique combo. Kareem Hunt is really not the player we want on this slate. There’s too many backs that could get 20+ touches to go after one that has 10-12 touches in their future.

WR – I may not be in love with Baker, but I think a least one of the receivers is going to have a big day. Jarvis Landry is still way too cheap for his role, flirting with a nearly 30% target share since the Odell Beckham injury. Landry is running the majority from the slot, which would leave him on Mike Hilton for a lot of the game. Hilton has been solid over 52 targets with just a 59.6% catch rate allowed and a 1.60 pPT. However, Jarvis under $6,000 doesn’t make much sense.

A player I really want to have in some GPP’s is Rashard Higgins. With Haden out, that opens up a lot on the boundary. Perhaps the Steelers have Steven Nelson shadow him, but I’m not sure I’d make that bet. Even if they do, Nelson has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.90 pPT. Higgins is going to have some opportunity here and that secondary has shown some issues. Since OBJ has been down, Higgins has a 30.7% air yards share, tops on the team.

TE – I can never really decide on Austin Hooper. Every time I’ve kind of liked him this year, it hasn’t worked out. It’s not a sparkling matchup either as the Steelers tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Hooper does have an 18.5% target share since OBJ has been hurt but the 6.9 aDOT isn’t exciting. I think he’s fine, but I’m not going out of my way to play him.

D/ST – They can be worth a punt, depending how you feel about the Steelers offense. They jumped to life playing the Colts and maybe that’s all they needed to wake up. However, Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in the past few weeks. Cleveland does boast Myles Garrett and 38 sacks on the year to go with 21 turnovers. I lean towards not playing them, since their secondary can sabotage things.

Cash – Chubb, Landry

GPP – Baker, Higgins, Hooper, D/ST

Steelers

QB – It seemingly took forever, but we got a ceiling game from Ben Roethlisberger the last time out, with 28.5 DK against the Colts. Cleveland finished the season ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass, while giving up the 12th most passing yards and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns at 30. Is Ben a risky play? Yes, but he’s really got upside to tap into this game. The Steelers have no running game to speak of at all, finishing 28th in attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. I’m hard pressed to think why Big Ben won’t throw 40+ times here, and if the week off helped rest his arm he could be dangerous. Ben was only 22nd in pDB at 0.42 but still finished eighth in touchdowns in just 15 games.

RB – Those stats I just quoted about the Steelers run game? Yeah, doesn’t exactly make me want to go click on James Conner. He played 64% of the snaps and this is still mostly his backfield, it’s just not very good. Conner is might be a cheap way to get 12+ touches but it is an ugly route to take. He likely has to score to make it worth playing him even at $5,000. I will say that Cleveland finished 19th in DVOA against the run, so this isn’t the worst matchup he could have. The Steelers just haven’t given you much reason to believe he pays off.

WR – Give me all the Diontae Johnson. I mean, this isn’t news if you know me but just look at what he’s done in the last two games with Big Ben. Diontae was benched in the Buffalo game for drops in Week 14, and then responded with 16 receptions on 27 targets. TWENTY. SEVEN. In two games. Ben played terribly in the Bengals game and Diontae still managed 19.9 DK points. He led the team in targets at 144 and the target share was almost 23%. Best yet, Cleveland normally doesn’t use Denzel Ward to shadow so Diontae gets a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He was targeted 107 times and allowed a 105.0 passer rating.

Ward will see a lot of Chase Claypool, who has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.2 and no other starter is particularly close. Both Claypool and Johnson had air yard shares over 25%, but Claypool is going to be volatile just like he was all year. JuJu Smith-Schuster is always the forgotten man for me, because I’m just playing Diontae. JuJu finished with just 14 more PPR points on the season despite playing almost 200 more snaps. That’s over three games of action. Kevin Johnson plays the slot for Cleveland and has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and a 107.6 passer rating over 63 targets. If you want to double stack Ben, JuJu and Diontae are the players to go with in the receiving corps.

TE – Another way to get unique is playing Eric Ebron. He’s activated off the Covid list and had the second-most RZ targets on the season at 16. The 14.9% target share doesn’t look too shabby either and the pricing is really reasonable. Cleveland didn’t play well against the position, allowing 10 touchdowns and in the bottom six in receptions and yards allowed. If you’re living in the mid-range at tight end, Ebron is my first choice.

D/ST – The Steelers led the league in pressure rate, sacks, and finished second in turnovers forced. Mayfield wasn’t under pressure a lot at just 17.7% on the year, but Pittsburgh can still create havoc. The Browns also had just 16 giveaways, so Pittsburgh is only really a spend for me if I’m making no other sacrifices.

Cash – Diontae, Ebron

GPP – Ben, JuJu, Claypool, Conner, D/ST

Core Four

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday

For the first year ever, we have a whopping six plays games on the NFL slate this week? With the sites doing more for the single day contests, we’re gong to split ours up into Saturday and Sunday. All the information is still plenty workable for the six game slate but we have plenty to do for the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday!

Colts at Bills, O/U of 51 (Bills -6.5)

Colts

QB – Of the six quarterbacks on the slate, Philip Rivers is fifth-cheapest and that alone gets him on the map. Getting the game script right is important. If the Bills are consistently putting up points, Rivers could be a veritable bargain in catch-up mode. He needs the volume as he was just 20th in pDB at 0.43. Rivers ended up ninth in passing yards on the tenth-most attempts just out of volume alone. Buffalo ended the year 12th in DVOA against the pass and right in the middle of the pack in DK points per game with a 23:15 TD:INT ratio.

The other big question is do we really need the salary relief from Rivers? The DK pricing suggests possibly not. Only one running back is over $5,900 and only two receivers are over $6,900. I believe the only way you play Rivers is if you think the Bills roll. Even then, you are aiming for the Bills to score and Rivers to not finish with many fewer points than Josh Allen. I’m not convinced those two factors would work together.

RB – One of the best ways to keep Allen and the dynamic Bills offense off the field is to go right back to the well and saddle up Jonathan Taylor. The rookie played a career-high 82% of the snaps last week and had 31 touches. Really, it’s about time. Something clicked for JT in Week 11 because he’s been phenomenal since then. The workload has not been under 16 touches and the DK points have not been under 15.4, with three games above 22 DK.

Taylor gets a soft matchup on paper here as well. Buffalo was only 17th in DVOA against the run, gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards to running backs and 14 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth-most). The fear has to be the scoreboard tilting early. I don’t think that happens as I actually think Indy can pull the upset, but Nyheim Hines lurks. Even last week when the Colts had full control, Hines still had six receptions. If they chase, Hines is going to be a great play under $5,000 with his 14.4% target share. My train of thought is to load up on Taylor, but Hines could be a contrarian GPP play.

WR – Now comes the difficult question and it’s “which one of the Colts receivers has the big game this week”? They are all very cheap, as T.Y. Hilton is the most expensive at $5,000. He’s only seeing about 65% of the snaps for the past six weeks or so, but does have an interesting target share. He led the team with an 18.8% share and was the only player with an air yards share over 20% (31.8%). Hilton led in EZ targets, receptions and yards but tied in touchdowns with the next player. He’ll likely see Tre White when he’s on the field and White struggled statistically through the season. He allowed a 13.0 YPR, 1.90 pPR and a 94.5 passer rating. Those numbers have come down recently, so maybe he’s finding his form.

We’ve attacked the Bills slot corner a bunch this year and that matchup would fall on Zach Pascal. He plays the slot about 65% of the time this season and he’s been on the field at least 61% in every single game this year. His target share is only 13.3% on the year, but he’s seen 16 over the past three games. Pascal also led in RZ targets (13) and was second in EZ targets (eight) so the touchdown equity is real for someone this cheap in a good matchup. I will say Taron Johnson looks better stats-wise than I thought. He only allowed a 1.40 pP and a 59.3% catch rate. I still like Pascal at the price, but it was surprising to see Johnson’s stats look solid.

Lastly, Michael Pittman is in the fray as well. This trio can really be difficult to peg from week to week, and they can be frustrating. The game has such a sizable O/U that I don’t want to ignore it totally. Pittman is my last priority since Pascal is barely more expensive and Pittman does appear to be the third wheel. Levi Wallace came on towards the end of the year as well, getting his catch rate below 59%. Two of the past three weeks Pittman’s targets have not gone above three and he hasn’t see double-digit DK since Week 11. It’s not hard to correlate the third receiver getting less work while the lead back has been carrying the mail.

TE – If you forced me to take a tight end from this team, I would grudgingly pick Jack Doyle. Trey Burton has the highest target share on the seasons at 10.7% but Doyle has the same RZ targets at eight and EZ targets at four. Additionally, Doyle has trended towards playing more lately. In the past four weeks, he’s led the tight end room in snap rate and has 14 targets in that time span. Buffalo gave up the most receptions and second-most yards to tight ends this year, so the punt makes sense. I just wouldn’t expect a ton out of Doyle and if he scores, you’re off to the races.

D/ST – My initial reaction before opening the slate was “no” but they might just be too cheap. The Bucs defense will get attention but we can save $1,100 for the seventh ranked DVOA defense in Indy. They had 25 takeaways, fourth in the league and racked up 40 sacks on the second-lowest blitz rate of 17.1%. I’m not suggesting they shut out the Bills but 24-28 points, a turnover or two and a sack or two makes the price work. Is that really too much to ask from the Colts this week?

Cash – Taylor, Pascal, D/ST

GPP – Hines, Rivers, Hilton, Doyle

Bills

QB – Allen is the highest-priced option on the slate and I’m not sure I can argue with that. The dark horse MVP candidate (it’s Aaron Rodgers but that doesn’t diminish Allen) only played a half last week and put up 20.3 DK points. Allen silenced any doubters he had this year, finishing third in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns, second in points per game and fourth in pDB. His deep ball was a weapon at a 43.8% completion rate for 10th best and the clean completion rate was fifth at 78.3%.

One of the best assets Allen brings to the fantasy table is the touchdown equity. He scored 42 total, and finished second in RZ passing attempts and fourth in RZ rushing attempts. Very few quarterbacks are safer bets to find the end zone. Indy is a tough spot on paper at eighth in DVOA against the pass, but you can’t go wrong with Allen at all. The question at the high end is Allen or Tom Brady, which we’ll get to later on.

RB – One of the easiest reasons to point to the passing game and Allen in this one is because we’re not going to want to play the backfield. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are splitting work and snaps almost equally down the middle. Moss is still my preferred target if going down that low. Prior to Week 17, he rattled off 12, 13 and 13 carries in the previous three games. Contrast that with 10, eight and seven for Singletary and Moss has the edge easily. Singletary does get slightly more receiving work with six receptions to two for Moss, but that’s not a factor we need to make decisions on. The Colts were ninth in DVOA against the run and allowed the third-fewest rush yards on the year. With Allen always a threat to punch in in from the red zone, these are not priority plays for me.

WR – The NFL’s leading receiver (Stefon Diggs) will have his hands full in this one with Xavier Rhodes and I’m not sure I care in the least. There is no denying Rhodes played as one of the best corners in football this year. He was targeted 73 times and finished in the top 20 in just about every metric we look like. He only allowed 38 receptions (16th), 52.1% catch rate allowed (sixth), a 73.9 passer rating (eighth) and a 1.40 pPT (11th). Diggs is just a different player. He led in receptions and yards on the season and is under $8,000. Rhodes is great but I legitimately think Diggs might be un-coverable. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will figure out ways to get the ball to Diggs without fail.

Cole Beasley seems iffy to play in this one and even if he does, John Brown has my attention. Rhodes is going to try and hold Diggs in check but that’s going to leave Brown in some favorable coverages. Brown had a 16.3% target share in his healthy games and a 12.4 aDOT, highest among this trio. If you haven’t read yet, picking on Colts corner Rock Ya-Sin is one of our main targets. Ya-Sin is at a 4.51 forty-yard dash while Brown is 4.34 and has the nickname of “Smoke”. Give me that Smoke.

If Beasley remains out, we can still consider Gabriel Davis as a punt. No player had more EZ targets than his 10 and he trailed only Diggs in RZ work at 10 as well. I do think we only go there if Beasley is out, but this is the first game so we’ll know in plenty of time. I would also prefer Davis than Pittman in this same game.

*Update* Beasley is questionable, but seems on track to play. I’m still in love with Brown though.

TE – If we’re going to the punt tier, you can make a small case for Dawson Knox. We can cast out the eight targets from last week with varied playing time, but he’s been more involved for a bit now. The last four games have seen him get 19 targets, which isn’t terrible at this price range. Knox was under a 10% share on the season and the matchup does him no favors. They were fifth-best in DK points per game and only gave up three scores all year. I prefer Doyle in this game, as weird as that sounds.

D/ST – I don’t think I can make a compelling case to play the highest-salaried defense here. For starters, the Colts only allowed Rivers to get sacked 19 times total. Secondly, the 15 giveaways were the third-fewest in the league. I do give the Bills credit for being a ball-hawking unit with the third-most turnovers forced and they racked up 38 sacks. They have the splash play ability, but the Colts don’t present a lot of opportunity to make it happen.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Brown

GPP – Moss, D/ST, Knox

Rams at Seahawks, O/U of 42.5 (Seahawks -3)

Rams

QB – We’re going to need more clarity here. Jared Goff did get in a limited practice, but that’s it with a thumb injury so far. John Wolford would be the starter if Goff cannot go, and he was just serviceable in his start on Sunday. He was asked to throw 38 times and managed just 231 yards, to go with 56 yards rushing and one pick. With the Seattle defense coming around lately, this isn’t my favorite spot to attack no matter who is under center. It is the lowest O/U on the slate and Goff managed just a 0.40 pDB, 25th in the league. That’s not likely to hold up to the Brady’s or the Allen’s on this slate.

*Update* We still don’t know for sure who’s starting but I’m not interested regardless.

RB – Cam Akers is wildly too cheap and is likely to be chalk that I’m happy to eat on this slate. The box score from last week doesn’t look all that good but the touches certainly do at 25! If we’re getting 20+ touches at this salary we have to be attention and be interested. His last five games have been basically everything we want out of a workhorse back. Akers has played over 60% of the snaps in those games and he’s going to be the man in this backfield. The Rams finished as a top 10 team in rushing attempts on the season so you know Akers will get the touches. Seattle has been good to running backs with the ninth-ranked DVOA and the fourth-fewest yards. The catch is the faced the third-fewest attempts and the Rams won’t be that style of matchup. I’ll take those touches at this price all the time.

WR – We expect Cooper Kupp to be back in this game and I would lean towards him if playing a Rams receiver. The question is does he have good enough quarterback play to pay off his price, and that’s a good one. Last week, Robert Woods didn’t clear 7.6 DK points and that’s a bit frightening. We’ve talked about it all year that Woods and Kupp are basically identical at 130 targets from Woods and 125 for Kupp, with Kupp having one fewer game. The receptions are within two, the yards are within 38 and everything is just a mirror image. I lean Kupp at that point since he’s cheaper and should have the better matchup.

Woods gets Shaquill Griffin for the most point and Griffin has been the best corner for Seattle. Through 95 targets, Griffin has only allowed a 1.60 pPT and a 91.4 passer rating. Nothing about that is totally spectacular but Kupp still gets the easier spot just because he’s not on Griffin. Seattle has had issues in the secondary a lot this year, so the slot corner isn’t exactly set. The only way I’d be interested is if Goff is active.

TE – Tyler Higbee can drive me nuts. He has ability and there’s appeal there on paper, but the Rams just don’t really utilize him. He runs a route on just 56.7% of his snaps, which is 29th in the league. It’s difficult to get excited for him and he’s in no man’s land for pricing. It’s easier to just spend a little more or just a little less and punt. Three of his five touchdowns came in one game at the beginning of the season and he’s broken 10 DK (3x at this price) just three times all season.

D/ST – If Indy makes you uncomfortable, try and find $700 more for the Rams. The perception is it’s scary to play a defense against the Seattle offense but that’s not exactly the case. The Rams have combined for 19 DK in the previous two matchups on the year with 11 total sacks. Considering Seattle finished third in sacks given up, that makes total sense. The Rams forced 22 turnovers and wound up second in sacks with 53. It’s down to Seattle or Indy in my eyes.

Cash – Akers, D/ST

GPP – Kupp, Woods, Higbee

Seahawks

QB – I’m not sure I’ve ever felt less of a need to play a quarterback with 40 touchdown passes and over 4,200 yards but that’s Russell Wilson this week. Be it by design or opposing defenses figuring things out, Wilson hasn’t gone over 263 passing yards since Week 9 and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes in that time frame (eight games). Somehow, Russ is seventh in pDB, sixth in points per game, second in passing touchdowns and ninth in yardage. He does have the sixth-most RZ attempts on the season and is seventh in pressured completion rate at 47.6%. So much of that is front loaded that this is a concerning trend. With Allen only $900 more and Brady still sitting there, I think Russ takes a backseat on this slate.

RB – In the same train of thought as Akers, Chris Carson seems awfully cheap. The fact that he hasn’t had a massive game lately makes his price very reasonable but he’s been the horse, with at least 13 touches in every game for the past four weeks. Seattle wants to be more balanced and Carson is going to get touches again this week, and the salary probably doesn’t really match the workload. The biggest issue is this is not a good spot, as the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. In the past game against LA, Carson put up 10.9 DK without a score on 19 touches. I’ll take that chance at this salary that he finds the end zone this time around.

WR – I am very torn on what to do here with the Seattle receivers. Part of me says that the Rams (and Jalen Ramsey) won’t contain D.K. Metcalf all three games. The other side of that coin is Metcalf has really cooled off at the same time Russ had. Only once has he hit over 18 DK and three of those eight games have been under double-digits. Ramesy only allowed a 1.30 pPT and a 79.7 passer rating, both in the top 12 in the league. Additionally, Tyler Lockett and Metcalf have been a lot closer than they were. Lockett led in targets by one, they tied in EZ targets and Lockett had the reception lead as well. That would seem to say that Lockett is the play here, but that’s not exactly true either.

We want Lockett to hit 21 points for 3x here and his 16 game record this year says that is not all that likely. Only four times has he done it and when he does, he typically does it in nuclear fashion. Lockett has been massively boom or bust with seven games under 10 DK. He’ll probably face Troy Hill out of the slot an awful lot. Hill has been very good this year with a 1.40 pPT, 8.7 YPR (second-best) and just a 74.2 passer rating allowed.

TE – I wouldn’t play Jacob Hollister in this game as he’s not been a priority target in the offense even since Greg Olsen got hurt. He does not have a game over 10 DK other than once and the 9.9% target share over the past eight weeks is not encouraging.

D/ST – Seattle haș been playing so much better lately but they could be a little overlooked. That may not be the case if Goff isn’t playing but since Week 8, they haven’t been under three DK points. The 22 turnovers forced and 46 sacks turned into respectable numbers. The 285 yards passing allowed did finish 29th on the year, but they were over 350 towards the middle of the season. The pass defense has been towards the upper end lately, and there’s nothing wrong with playing them but I do prefer the Rams.

Cash – Carson, D/ST

GPP – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett

Buccaneers at Washington, O/U of 45 (Buccaneers -9)

Buccaneers

QB – To me, the decision on quarterback is between Allen and Tom Brady. I lean Allen if at all possible and think he’s going to be chalk. Don’t get me wrong, Brady beat up on some trash can pass defenses down the stretch when he went over 26 DK in every game in the last three weeks. The stats speak for themselves over the course of the season. Brady finished with 40 touchdowns, 10th in pDB at 0.53, ninth in points per game, third in passing yards and first in air yards per attempt. It’s almost like good receivers allow you to do more than dink and dunk passing.

Here’s the catch statistically and narrative-wise. The statistical catch is Brady has an Achilles heel (as much as a player of his caliber can) and has had it for a few years – pressure. Brady finished 29th in completion rate at 33.7% and that is the bugaboo in this game. Washington only blitzes at the 13th highest rate but has the fifth-most sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate. That could leave Brady not doing exactly what you want him to do.

The narrative that will make the rounds in a big way is WFT defensive lineman Chase Young saying “I want Tom Brady” after the Philly game. Let me tell you Mr. Young (who was phenomenal in his rookie year) – no. No, you do not. Brady and Coach Bruce Arians are going to make them pay for that one if they can. I think Brady is a very strong play, but the WFT defense is second in DVOA against the pass this year. It’s a very interesting spot that could go multiple ways, which is why Allen is my number one quarterback on the slate in a vacuum.

RB – It’s likely to be the RoJo Show on Saturday as Ronald Jones came back from missing two games and played 54% of the snaps with 12 attempts on the ground. It was a bit of a bummer that he wasn’t targeted in the passing game, which is why I believe Akers and Carson are both better options. Washington is 11th in DVOA against the run and if Jones gets around 15 touches, he’s still a bargain. I think the Bucs might actually run a little bit more than the perception is. They likely can’t just have Brady drop back 40-45 times with no threat of the run game because of the front seven of Washington. Brady will try to prove that Young was wrong, but that doesn’t exactly mean he’s dropping back 60 times. Jones will probably be a pivot to other backs, but not a priority.

WR – One of the bigger injuries to watch on this slate is Mike Evans. If he were to be out, the changes the dynamic of the Tampa offense and puts a lot more work on Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. It’s not hard to see the upside for those two without Evans as they both went for over 30 DK in last week’s game when Evans left very early. If Evans is active, he’s really mis-priced as the second Tampa receiver. Even with leaving super early, Evans was the man with AB in the lineup. He led in targets, RZ targets, EZ targets, yards and touchdowns since Week 9. That’s just indisputable at this point.

Evans faces Kendall Fuller, who has been very good this season. He’s in the top 30 in pPT, passer rating and catch rate allowed on the year, not to mention YPR at 11.5. Considering those numbers came over 104 targets, that is pretty impressive. Evans does have a big advantage in size, as Fuller is just 5’11” and you can definitely see Brady just putting the ball around him and letting Evans do the work. That doesn’t even count the RZ work, which is going to be difficult for Fuller to defend.

AB faces likely Ronald Darby and that is massive advantage to Brown. He allowed a 13.5 YPR and was targeted 113 times for 65 receptions. Browns doesn’t look like terribly far off from peak AB at the moment. Five of his eight games have been 13 DK or higher, walking off the street with no football or being in the offense. That’s impressive and he’s going to torch Darby at least once. It will just be a matter of Brady getting the ball there.

Godwin has an easier matchup in the slot against Jimmy Moreland, who allowed a 65.8% catch rate on the year. If Evans is in, I likely don’t pay up for him this week and just play AB and Evans. Pretending everyone is full strength, I have them as Evans, Brown and then Godwin in priority.

*Update* We’re still not sure on Evans, so hopefully we get more of an update before this slate kicks off we’ll know. I think Diggs is a stone cold lock, so Evans and AB would be the easiest ways to get exposure here.

TE – I feel like I always struggle with Rob Gronkowski. When a player is almost $4,000 at tight end and he has to score to pay off, it can be dicey. He does sit second in RZ and EZ targets on the team, so the equity is high. Washington was just average in touchdowns allowed with seven, so a guy like Gronkowski sits where he has in the past few weeks for me. I’d play him in a Brady stack so the touchdowns are 10 point scores, but I’m much happier to play the receivers with much higher reception chances.

D/ST – Since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and 48 sacks on the year, they have to be considered as well. Washington is going to have to play really well up front, because their quarterback is not going to be very mobile to get out of trouble. If you can afford them, by all means you can play them but I don’t think they are the slam dunk option on the slate.

Cash – Evans, Brady, AB, D/ST

GPP – Gronk, Godwin, RoJo

Washington

QB – Bringing up the rear in salary is Alex Smith and he really should be. He simply has not shown any type of ceiling, certainly to contend with the Brady’s and Allen’s of the slate. It’s not even like we have to jam in a ton of high-priced studs to want to take the risk on a quarterback like this. Smith has only played part-time this season, but he’s still 30th in yards per attempt, 34th in points per game and threw just six touchdowns. His completion rate under pressure is worse than Brady’s at 35th, 27.5%. That could rear it’s ugly head since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and the highest on this slate. Even if Washington trails in a negative game script, I would just rather play Rivers. With him playing hurt right now, it’s really killed his mobility (little that he had) and he has to get the ball out fast.

*Update* Smith may not even be able to go, as Taylor Heinicke took all the first-team reps. Don’t go this far down for salary.

RB – This really projects as a major J.D. McKissic game. Washington is a heavy underdog and Tampa boasts the best rushing defense in football. It was encouraging to see Antonio Gibson play about 60% of the snaps and log 20 touches on Sunday night, but even then McKissic saw eight targets. On top of that, no team gave up more receptions to backs than Tampa at 101. With the pressure coming from all angles this game, it’s not hard to see why McKissic could get plenty of work through the air. I just don’t think we need to go with Gibson against the number one ranked DVOA against the run and the defense that gave up the fewest rushing yards. I still prefer Akers for $300 more but if you don’t want to go Carson, McKissic makes sense to me.

WR – There’s really only two options here. The first is the one we all know and love and that’s Terry McLaurin. Through his 15 games played, he racked up a 25.5% target share and a 42% air yards share in this offense. He led in receptions by seven over McKissic and lead in yards with over 1,100. Only one player had more than his seven and 12 EZ and RZ targets, and he is the clear alpha in this passing game. Corner Jamel Dean had some ups and downs, but finished with an 89.7 passer rating and a 1.50 pPT. I prefer the Bucs receivers, but McLaurin could be a dynamite GPP option.

Cam Sims checks in as an option in large part because he doesn’t come off the field. He’s played 94% of the snaps or more in the past four months and has 24 targets in that time span.

TE – It can sometimes be a challenge to play the highest salaried tight end, especially when they’re not a big name. Logan Thomas has turned into a consistent player lately and since Week 12, he hasn’t been under double-digit DK points with two games over 30 DK. Since that game, Thomas is neck and neck in target share at 23% with McLaurin for the lead. He also leads in RZ targets at nine and EZ targets at five.

You have to wonder if things are starting to click for the converted quarterback. This is easily the most reps he’s had at the NFL level and tight end can have a steep learning curve. This could be the beginning of a mini-breakout and the Bucs didn’t sparkle against tight ends this year. They allowed nine touchdowns, over 800 yards and 86 receptions. I don’t think he’s the primary target on the slate, but if you get there and love the lineup he’s a great option.

D/ST – I can see a path here, but it might be the riskiest of the bunch. We’ve talked about how good the front is for Washington already, and they’re one of the defenses that can give up points and still pay off due to low salary and splash plays. They forced 23 turnovers on the year and just missed on 50 sacks. If they can consistently get to Brady, it’s easy to see where they get 7-9 DK points. Every defense has some risk this week, and the Colts and Washington could be interesting options of Seattle and LA.

Cash – Thomas

GPP – McLaurin, D/ST, McKissic, Sims

Core Four

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cam Akers, Johnathan Taylor

I can’t find enough reasons to fade the Allen/Diggs connection on this slate. We can rotate in John Brown for double-stack opportunities. Akers is just too cheap, and Taylor is going to be a lock in cash. One thing I will point out – in a three max GPP, I’m going to use the entire Colts backfield. Shouts to Discord user Cowabunga for the idea. In the three max, I’ll have one with Taylor, one with Taylor AND Hines, then one with Hines. There’s a reasonable path for both Colts back working out in the same game script and will be underutilized on the three game slate.

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