NFL DFS

We are back for Week 6 after a very strong Week 5 that saw a ton of scoring on all fronts! The slate is smaller this week with bye weeks starting up so always be mindful to narrow that player pool. Even with a smaller slate, we have a lot of work to do in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6 and find our paths to green screens!

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6

Texans at Colts, O/U of 43.5 (Colts -10)

Texans 

QB – I was 100% wrong on Davis Mills last week as he put up 27 DK points in a wildly impressive effort against New England. I would still tend to think that was an aberration and not something we should chase. Mills is only 26th in FPPD, 23rd in pressured completion rate, and 32nd in clean completion rate. What’s interesting with Mills is the way to get to the Colts is through the air as they sit 30th in DVOA against the pass and they have given up the most passing touchdowns at 15 despite facing the fourth-fewest attempts. I suppose that if you play 20 lineups, you can make the argument but we have a very strong value at the position that I already love. 

RB – We can continue to safely avoid the Texans running backs for DFS. David Johnson has taken over the lead in snaps at 42% but also sits third in carries behind Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay. Johnson is second on the team with 16 targets (yes, that qualifies for second on the Houston offense) but that’s barely three targets per game. It’s not enough to try and guess right for Johnson and the scoring upside is non-existent. Ingram will get the majority of the rushing attempts with three games over 13 carries on the season, but only one time has that resulted in more than five DK points. There’s no tangible reward for going this contrarian, even on a smaller slate. 

Update – If you needed more reason to skip these backs, lineman Laremy Tunsil is out as well.

WR – We faded Brandin Cooks last week facing the Patriots but it’s a really good time to get back on board. Cooks was very quiet last week as we predicted but even after the dud, Cooks still is third in air yards share at 47.5%, second in target rate, and inside the top 12 in receptions and yards. The quarterback play is far from a guarantee but Cooks gets such a massive share of the passing game and he’s so inexpensive that I feel comfortable playing him in all formats. Indy could be without Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes this week, leaving Cooks with an even more appealing matchup. 

Past that, Chris Moore popped up this past week with the injuries the Texans are dealing with. He was signed to the actual team from the practice squad and caught all five of his targets on 62% of the snaps. Danny Amendola was out and Moore has played 42% of the snaps from the slot, so he could be a punt but he needs Amendola to remain out. Let’s see what the week of practice brings us. 

Update – Amendola is questionable coming into the weekend but never logged a full practice all week.

TE – Both Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins continue their timeshare at the position with at least 54% of the snaps but neither has a target share over 9%. Even at the minimum price, there is no particular reason to punt especially with the tight end I already have my eye on. 

D/ST – The Texans defense sits 25th in sack percentage, bottom five in pressure rate, and sit 15th in total DVOA. While they have generated eight turnovers so far, Indy is giving up just a 25% pressure rate. Houston is cheap so maybe I would use them as a total punt if I loved the rest of the lineup, but that would be the extent of it. 

Cash Plays – Cooks

GPP Plays – Mills, Moore if Amendola is out

Colts

QB – You can consider Carson Wentz and I can guarantee that GravMatt will be playing him in at least one lineup. The Texans are ninth in DVOA against the pass, which is higher than we would expect. The 7:6 touchdown to interception ratio is solid as well. Wentz is only 21st in FPPD but he’s third in deep ball completion rate at 50% and 12th in clean completion rate. The Colts are just 14th in attempts but at this salary, it could only take one or two deep balls to pay off. I would prefer the running game for the most part in this contest, however. 

RB – Jonathan Taylor had the breakout game that we’ve been hinting at for the past couple of weeks but it came through the air for the most part with 116 receiving yards and a score. His 9.6% target share is not the worst ever, but he’s also fifth on his team in targets so I’m not sure we should continue to expect massive games receiving. What we do love is his continued work in the RZ as JT sits third in RZ carries and has just one touchdown. That will not continue and Houston is 30th in DVOA against the run and has given up 562 yards on the ground. The mid-range in running back is crazily crowded this week but Taylor is absolutely in that mix and he could have another monster game, this time coming from his rushing production. 

WR – It may not be the largest pie out there but Michael Pittman has all the metrics of an alpha receiver that we want. He has a 25.3% target rate, six RZ targets, is ninth in routes run, and has an air yard share of 36.7%. Pittman is also 11th in receptions and inside the top 20 in yards on top of that, so the salary is fairly low. What could throw a monkey wrench into things is T.Y. Hilton has returned to practice for the first time this season. With him back in the mix, it nixes Paris Campbell and Zach Pascal out of my builds, assuming all three are healthy. I still would fully expect Pittman to be the alpha but would have concerns about how the share is divided. Any matchup on Venrnon Hargreaves or Terrance Mitchell of Houston would not concern me. 

Update – Hilton is expected to be back this week but we will know for sure Saturday. If he’s back, I’d be a little less likely to mess with this corps. It would be fairly amusing if Hilton had a big game because historically, he’s smashed the Texans at home. It’s just not the best idea fresh off the IR.

TE – If you wanted to take some kind of chance with the Colts, you could take a swing at Mo Alie-Cox who has started to take targets from Jack Doyle. Over the past three weeks, Alie-Cox has 11 targets to just four for Doyle and he’s had three EZ targets in that time as well. He did score twice and without a touchdown, you may not get much production out of him but the Texans are tied for the most touchdowns, they have allowed the fourth-most yards and the second-most receptions to the position. He would be on my radar if you’re playing 20 lineups or more, although I plan on spending up at the position. 

D/ST – Well, at least this unit isn’t $4,900 like the Patriots were last week. The Colts are fine at the salary as Mills still has gotten sacked 11 times already and Indy has forced nine turnovers through five weeks. They are right in the middle of the pack in sack percentage at 6.1% so if I wind up with $3,500 left, I’d be fine playing them. I won’t go out of my way to jam them in. Additionally, the Colts are 23rd in total DVOA so there is nothing special here. 

Cash Plays – Taylor

GPP Plays – Pittman, Hilton, Alie-Cox

Packers at Bears, O/U of 44 (Packers -4.5)

Packers 

QB – Can you play Aaron Rodgers on any given Sunday? Of course. It’s Aaron Rodgers. However, this is not going to be a week where I’m actively going after him. Chicago is fourth in DVOA against the pass and they have only allowed the 12th fewest yards passing in the league. That never matters much to Rodgers but he is just 15th in FPPD, ninth in touchdowns, and just 21st in passing yards. Rodgers is 21st in attempts as well and it does help his cause that he is fifth in RZ attempts. Given the slate in front of us, I’ll have other targets as a higher priority. 

RB – It can be frustrating to play Aaron Jones. There’s nothing wrong with playing one of the best backs in football but the ceiling game can be hard to capture and A.J. Dillon is a thorn in his side for fantasy production. I’m not saying we should but into Dillon scoring over 17 DK last week because he’s not going to go 4/49/1 in the receiving game very often. What I’m saying is Dillon has 33% of the attempts from the position and he’s split the targets by a 10-20 split with Jones. With Dillon taking a third of the work, it does make it harder for Jones to go nuts even though it is very obviously possible. The price is solid at $7,300 for Jones and in fairness, he’s eighth in carries and 15th in targets among his position. Only three players have a higher number of RZ attempts than Jones and he is tied for third in RZ targets. The matchup is not the friendliest since the Bears have allowed 456 yards on the ground and only 176 through the air. It will be interesting to see how the field treats him but I’m betting he slots in as a very strong GPP play as a pivot off the passing game. 

WR – All hail Davante Adams who remains one of the safer bets in fantasy. Despite being only 22nd in routes run, Adams is first in targets, first in air yards, fifth in air yards share, third in deep targets, fifth in RZ targets, and first in target rate, receptions, and yards. The scariest part of all of this is he only has two scores so far and ranks fifth in unrealized air yards. He’s the WR4 on the year and has a much larger ceiling to get to as well. He will Miley draw Jaylon Johnson who has had an outstanding year thus far with a 41.2% completion rate allowed on just 17 targets. Additionally, he’s sitting at a 0.95 FPPT and I felt out do not care. There’s not a corner in the league that can shut down the Adams/Rodgers connection. 

Randall Cobb came back to Earth last week with only three targets on just 54.7% of the snaps. That’s going to leave him as a touchdown or bust candidate although rolling in the slot against Duke Shelly is an advantage for Cobb. Shelly has allowed a 77.8% coach rate on nine targets and Rodgers could try and pick on him a little bit with Cobb. Allen Lazard continues to be the “WR2” in snaps at 85.9% but he’s a cardio king with just a 7.1% target share since the Packers lost Marques Valdez-Scantling to injury. 

TE – I will continue to ignore Robert Tonyan with a running back-esque 10.6% target share and just nine receptions on the season. 

D/ST – I suppose you can play the Packers defense as they scored seven DK last week without two of their most important players. I don’t love the salary since they sit just 20th in sack percentage and bottom-eight in pressure rate. The saving grace is the takeaways have been there with eight and the Bears have already allowed the second-most sacks in the league. I do wish they were more around the $3,000 range. They are also just 20th in total DVOA, speaking to where they are as a unit. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Jones

GPP Plays – Rodgers, Cobb, D/ST 

Bears 

QB – It appears that Justin Fields will be able to make it for this game but I’m not sure how interested we should be. If the Bears have their way with this game, Fields isn’t going to throw a whole lot as he has not exceeded 20 attempts in any game. He does get the ball downfield with the seventh-highest air yards per attempt and he’s eighth in deep ball completion rate. I would bet this is going to be the best day for Fields fantasy-wise out of necessity but Green Bay is 17th in DVOA against the pass and this could go south in a hurry. 

RB – While I firmly believe that Damien Williams is still a strong play, Khalil Herbert emerged as a very strong option as well. They were splitting this backfield a lot more than most of us foresaw. Now, Williams got the only three targets for the running backs and he held an advantage in RZ carries at 3-2 and 2-1 inside the five. Herbert had more carries at 18-16 and gained 11 more rushing yards. He played extremely well and even though he had no receiving work, he remains under $5,000. The Bears are eighth in rushing attempts on the season and clearly want to run the ball and play defense to win games. They aren’t going to put the game in the hands of Fields if they can avoid it and the best way for them to win is to keep Green Bay off the field. The Packers are 18th in yards per carry allowed so far and if Herbert manages to score, he could be a great value. What makes that play even better in GPP is Herbert is a direct pivot off one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. Williams has the likeliest chance to pay off since he’ll get the passing work (it appears) but both backs are extremely viable. 

WR – I don’t know how anyone can have the slightest bit of faith in Allen Robinson or Darnell Mooney. I grant you that the Bears may well have to abandon the run in this game but if not, the production will likely remain minimal. Since Fields took over as the starter, Mooney leads with 16 targets while A-Rob has 14. Neither has a RZ target and neither has an aDOT above Mooney’s 11.9-yard mark. They have only averaged around eight points per game and the offense has frankly been miserable. I would still want to play Robinson because he may draw the majority of Kevin King, who has long been a target of ours. He’s only been targeted six times in his two games but has allowed a 26.6 YPR and has an absurd 4.05 FPPT. If A-Rob can’t get it done here….I don’t know what else to say. Mooney could see some of Chandon Sullivan or Eric Stokes and he has the speed to get by them. It’s just a matter of the ball getting there. 

Update – Kevin King is out and Rasul Douglas (who has been a Packer for about two weeks) will be forced into action. A-Rob has only gotten in one limited practice but there doesn’t seem to be much of a concern he misses the game.

TE – I feel like Cole Kmet should be better with a 15.8% target share but he only has one single RZ target. That’s as many as Jesper Horsted who has played just one game. The only way you go here is if you think the Packers start scoring at will and the Bears can’t stick within the game plan. Past that, there’s no reason to go there. 

D/ST – Green Bay only has five turnovers on the season and Rodgers has been sacked just 10 times. While Chicago is fifth in total DVOA, first in sack percentage, and has seven takeaways…it’s hard to go against Rodgers and company. They’re not even overly cheap, either. 

Cash Plays – Williams

GPP Plays – Robinson, Herbert, Mooney

Chiefs at Washington, O/U of 56.5 (Chiefs -6.5)

Chiefs 

QB – We’re in Week 6 and the QB1 is Patrick Mahomes, to the surprise of nobody. He’s expensive to be sure but he should be and he sits sixth in attempts, fifth in RZ attempts, seventh in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in FPPD. What is crazy so far is the deep ball completion rate is just 33.3%, 23rd in the league. The matchup is pristine as well since Washington is 29th in DVOA against the pass, has given up the seventh-most yards, and the second-most touchdowns. It doesn’t get that much better as far as the matchup goes. 

RB – I said we had a chalky play and I’m talking about Darrel Williams. With the news Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing the next couple of weeks, Williams will take the reins in this backfield and had been taking some chunks out of the backfield work. Coming into this game, he had 20 carries and five targets as the backup in the previous three games. I would be surprised if he doesn’t take the lead and Jerick McKinnon takes the change of pace role. We’ll keep an eye on the practice reports and the coach speak through the week, but Williams appears to be the next man up. For the most part, this is just a salary play. You’re getting the main running back in an excellent offense for under $5,000. As it stands, there is not much to overthink here. Washington has oddly given up six touchdowns receiving already in addition to two rushing touchdowns. With almost 600 scrimmage yards allowed, Williams has a shot for at least 80 all-purpose yards and a score which is well worth his salary. 

WR – I’m going to assume the next position we talk about is chalk because the price is egregious. However, that makes Tyreek Hill one of the most elite GPP plays on the slate if popularity shakes out as I suspect. Hill is way more expensive and the path of least resistance is just playing the tight end. Reek is still 15th in routes, second in receptions, fourth in yards, and 10th in unrealized air yards. He’s also ninth in yards per route and the target rate is sixth in the league. William Jackson will draw some of the work against Hill and he’s been the lone corner that’s played alright with a 1.53 FPPT. Hill kicks into the slot 38.4% of the time so the matchup isn’t super important. 

I suppose you can take a stab at Mecole Hardman who has a 16.4% target share but just a 14.9% air yards share. He rotates into the slot as well but with only three deep targets, it’s a harder sell. 

Update – There was some mild concern about Hill not practicing until Friday, but there seems to be no danger of him sitting at this point.

TE – Every week, we talk about how much we’d love to get Travis Kelce in our lineups but he’s typically at least $8,000 and it can be difficult. He might be coming off two slower games but the man is $7,000. We have value at running back already to make it pretty easy to afford Kelce and a player like CMC, at least I believe so. Kelce is third in routes, first in receptions, second in receiving yards, second in unrealized air yards, and fourth in target share. For context, Darren Waller was more expensive last week. This price does not make sense and he is one of my highest priorities as things stand. 

D/ST – The Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in football by almost every measure. They rank dead last in total DVOA, 31st in sack percentage, have just four turnovers forced and are allowing an average of 31.4 points per game. That’s enough said right there. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, Williams, Kelce 

GPP Plays – McKinnon, Hardman

Washington 

QB – New Orleans is fifth in DVOA against the pass so maybe it’s not a surprise that Taylor Heinicke struggled last week. Well, this week is a new week and Heinicke is in a massive bounce-back spot for under $6,000. This Chiefs defense is the stone worst right now and they have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the league. He is 14th in FPPD which is not that bad for a backup and Heinicke has been pretty fearless with the ball. That can be a double-edged sword when the defense is good but the Chiefs defense is very much not that. I have zero fear with Heinicke this week and he might be one of my favorite options on the board at the position this week. He’s just too cheap in a game that carries the highest O/U on the slate. 

RB – Antonio Gibson continues to play with a stress fracture in his shin, which is kind of insane to hear for an NFL running back. Gibson is not getting the receiving work we all wanted but he is also sixth in carries across the entire NFL and ninth in rushing yards. While we didn’t see the Bills really hammer the Chiefs on the ground, they just made their bones through the air and Washington should be more balanced. They just miss out on the top 10 for rushing attempts per contest and the Chiefs have allowed the third-most yards per carry at 5.2 yards and almost 700 scrimmage yards. Gibson should be able to find plenty of success on the ground and even with a slightly lower floor than may be perceived, it’s hard to pass on him under $7,000. J.D. McKissic has an 11% target share and if you think this game really goes up and down, you can save money and take the gamble with him. KC has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the backs and McKissic (and Gibson) can give this linebacker corps fits. 

WR – This is about the textbook definition of smash spot for Terry McLaurin and he’s not expensive enough. I mean if he was $8,000 I’m not sure he’d be expensive enough. Since Week 2 when Heinicke took over full time, only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp have more targets than McLaurin. Only five players have a larger share of the air yards and only three have a larger share of the targets. He’s inside the top 12 in receptions, yards, and unrealized air yards and this could be a game where the yards get realized. KC has only seen the sixth-fewest receiver targets but has allowed almost 800 yards and seven touchdowns. McLaurin is going to eat and even if he sees Charvarius Ward, it will. Not. Matter. 

Update – So the Chiefs are going to be without Ward and lineman Chris Jones. That is awful news for them but we need to keep an eye on McLaurin. He was added to the injury report Friday. Generally, that ends very poorly but Washington says it was very precautionary. Additionally, Curtis Samuel is out and Dyami Brown is questionable. Carter could well be a value in this game.

We’ll need to see how the practice reports shake out. Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown are both banged up and DeAndre Carter stepped up for 69.8% of the snaps and saw eight targets. He converted for 4/62 and if he has an elevated role, the minimum price is appealing as a punt to fit some other things. 

TE – I can already tell you that I’m very excited for a Washington stack with a Kelce run-back and Ricky Seals-Jones would be part of that stack. He is far too cheap for the spot and he stepped directly into the Logan Thomas role with 98% of the snaps, had eight targets, three RZ targets, and two EZ targets. That absolutely plays at $3,000 and KC is tied for the fourth-most receptions surrendered to the position and dead last in yardage. 

D/ST – Washington couldn’t slow down the Saints and despite their issues, Kansas City is much more talented than New Orleans. Even at just $2,000, I’m not touching them. 

Cash Plays – McLaurin, Heinicke, Gibson, Seals-Jones

GPP Plays – Possibly Carter 

Rams at Giants, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -9.5)

Rams

QB – Matthew Stafford is well in play this week as usual at the helm of one of the better offenses in football. Stafford is only 16th in attempts but he makes up for the slightly lower volume with the seventh-most deep attempts and the ninth-most RZ attempts. Stafford also sits third in yards, fifth in air yards, and eighth in FPPD. There is not much to hate on here as the Giants are 22nd in DVOA against the pass and they have given up 10 touchdowns so far. Stafford should have his way with this defense and I will certainly have a game stack with him at the center of it with other pass game options. 

RB – It was an overall weird night for the Rams last Thursday night as the offense wasn’t exceptional in a smash spot and it appeared that Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel split work. Michel carried the ball 11 times but the vast majority of that came on one series when Henderson had an injury crop up with his arm. It was frustrating to see Michel poach a late touchdown but overall, I’m not sure we shouldn’t expect Henderson to be the lead dog in the backfield. He’s logged at least 16 touches every single game he’s played in and has a 7.5% target share in a crowded offense. With the Giants getting gouged on the ground to the tune of the third-most rushing yards of 615 through five weeks, Henderson has a dynamite spot. We played Zeke last week at $7,000 in this exact matchup and Henderson checks in $1,000 cheaper than that. With the volume we can expect, he’s a strong value on the slate. 

WR – Cooper Kupp had a “down” game but still scored 16.2 DK points and Stafford missed him horribly on at least two targets, one of which would have been a touchdown. I’m pointing that out to prove that Henderson, Kupp, and Robert Woods can all co-exist within the same game in this offense. Woods was reintroduced into this offense with 14 targets for 12/150. It’s been a long time coming but the offense will always work better when both these receivers are thriving. Woods will draw some of James Bradberry which was a touch concerning last year but he’s struggled this year with a 2.24 FPPT and a 13.3 YPR allowed. Kupp is up to 56% in the slot and Logan Ryan will see the majority of those plays and he’s allowed a 70% catch rate on 10 targets. It’s much easier to play Woods now because McLaurin is right there cheaper than Kupp, but both are well in play. I would still reserve Woods for GPP just in case. Both Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson could take a deep ball but D-Jax only has 11 targets in the past three weeks compared to 16 for Jefferson. I will say D-Jax is number one in yards per route while Jefferson is 48th, so that speaks to what the roles are. 

TE – The price is sort of up there for Tyler Higbee, although there is a safety that comes with him. He does have an 11.8% target share which is fine but my fear would be Woods coming on. Is there a ceiling that comes with Higbee if Kupp and Woods are getting the targets they did last week? At least for one game, the answer is no because he only saw two total targets. The touchdown saved him and in honesty, he’s in a no man’s land for fantasy. I will spend up or down, leaving Higbee alone in a game where we wouldn’t project the Rams to have to press the gas pedal to score. 

D/ST – If you didn’t know already, look at what score the Patriots defense put up last week against the Texans offense. The Rams are facing the B team for the Giants in all likelihood but you would want around 15 DK points from them to pay off $4,700. I will have zero interest in that salary. 

Cash Plays – Henderson, Stafford, Kupp

GPP Plays – Woods, D-Jax, Jefferson, Higbee 

Giants 

QB – We’ll have to update things later on in the week. Daniel Jones has to clear concussion protocols and that will dictate a good bit about the offense. Mike Glennon was barely passable in relief and we have enough of a sample of him in the NFL that we won’t look that direction. 

Update – Jones is on track to play this week so perhaps he volume works out for him. The Rams are only 16th in DVOA so they haven’t been the scary matchup we’ve been accustomed to in recent years.

RB – I don’t want to cast him aside outright but I’m not sure how much Devontae Booker I will have on this slate. For $500 less, we can play Williams from KC, and for $600 more we can just play Henderson on the other side of this game. Booker scored twice and gobbled up snaps and touches in the wake of Saquon Barkley being injured last week. Now, Booker handled 88% of the snaps and 19 total touches on four targets, playing most of the game with a backup quarterback as well. That is a strong point in his favor because getting that style of volume at this salary is fantastic. I do think we project a game script where they trail so he has some safety built-in with receptions, especially if the Giants are still dealing with injuries to skill players. We may not have a ton of super expensive backs but the mid-range is super crowded this week. My early read is Booker is more than fine, but I like others better. The Rams have given up over 670 scrimmage yards so Booker is not off the table completely. 

WR – As it is for the rest of the team, we can’t do anything until we see who is available for the Giants. Kadarius Toney completely broke out on Sunday and he’s moved around with 37.3% of his snaps in the slot. The 2.73 yards per route is 14th and he’s looked excellent with the ball in his hands and a very tough player to defend. Even if Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton come back, I’d be surprised to see Toney retreat to the bench. In addition, the Giants will almost surely be without Kenny Golladay. It could be another very big game for Toney, but we have to see who’s in uniform for the team. The good news is Jalen Ramsey won’t shadow and that is a giant help. 

Update – Alright, here’s what we know. Shepard is back, Toney and Slayton are questionable, and Golladay is out. What that means for me is I would only look at Toney IF Slayton still sits. If all three are active, it’s probably a good time to be cautious. I would still prefer Toney of the three, since Shepard will see more of Ramsey from the slot. If Slayton is out, I’m much happier to play Toney.

TE – The Giants spent most of the game without Shepard, Slayton, Golladay, Jones, and Saquon. Evan Engram managed four receptions for 55 yards. It’s very difficult to have any faith in that and I’m playing Seals-Jones in nearly every lineup where I could theoretically afford Engram. 

D/ST – We will also have zero interest on this side against one of the better offenses in football. They are only 28th in sack percentage and 29th in pressure rate. If you give Stafford and that group mostly free rein, they are going to put up a lot of points. 

Cash Plays – Toney if Slayton is out

GPP Plays – Jones, Shepard, Booker

Bengals at Lions, O/U of 48 (Bengals -3.5)

Bengals 

QB –  This is a great spot for Joe Burrow as the Lions have allowed over 1,300 yards on the fewest pass attempts in the league. That would explain ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and Burrow is fifth in yards per attempt and 11th in FPPD. The only real issue holding him back is the lack of volume right now as he sits 26th in attempts and just 29th in RZ attempts. The kid gloves might be coming off with 70 attempts over the past two weeks and he’s been over 20 DK points in both games. Granted, one of those games hit overtime but still. I do like the spot for him to take advantage of the secondary and I think we see another long bomb touchdown with a certain receiver on the other end. 

RB – This is absolutely a spot where you’re hoping either Joe Mixon is healthy and takes his normal workload (unlike last week) or he sits entirely. Mixon had just 10 carries and played only 28% of the snaps last week which frankly makes it look like an egregious decision to let him play. There was really no point to it. If we know he’s better this week, he joins the mid-range fray as an option as well. Much like Gibson, the passing work isn’t there like you hoped with just 10 targets on the season. With the Lions yielding 562 yards on the ground with six touchdowns already, Mixon may not need the passing work to put up a big number. The Bengals have to hope Mixon is better because Samaje Perine has entered the Covid protocols and will likely miss Sunday’s game. 

Update – Mixon is said to be ready for a full workload this week according to coach Zac Taylor. If that’s the case, Mixon is not nearly expensive enough.

WR – It’s really hard to not have Ja’Marr Chase as one of the better plays at the position this week. He’s only trailing Randy Moss in fantasy points through the first five games of a career and that is extremely high praise. Chase has broken a reception of at least 34 yards in all five games and has found the end zone in four of five games as well for five total touchdowns. He has the highest air yards share in football, sits third in deep targets, and seventh in yards despite just 23 receptions. The past two weeks have been great for him with 19 total targets and he is the alpha in the offense, period. Detroit is down to their third and fourth corners as starters so there is no matchup to worry about. 

I still will continue to stack Burrow with Chase and Tee Higgins as opposed to Tyler Boyd because when they have all been active, Boyd has 18 targets compared to 22 for Higgins. The second-year receiver has not hit under double-digit DK points as well and he should not be the cheapest of the three receivers. Make no mistake, Chase is the main target but Higgins is a strong secondary one in my eyes. 

TE – Not that it was any kind of brave stance but I am happy to see C.J. Uzomah go back to fantasy irrelevance. The passing game will have a tough time sustaining the three receivers, let alone a tight end and Uzomah only has a 9.2% target share. 

D/ST – This play makes plenty of sense since the Lions have allowed 14 sacks on a 26.3% pressure rate and Cincy is 13th in sack percentage. The Bengals have also forced five turnovers and sit seventh in total DVOA. The price is a hair higher than I’d want but it seems like that’s the case with every defense this week. 

Cash Plays – Burrow, Chase, Higgins

GPP Plays – Mixon, Boyd, D/ST 

Lions 

QB – We’ve seen the floor for Jared Goff lately with under 10 DK points in two of the past three games. Cincinnati is still 12th in DVOA against the pass and has only allowed six touchdowns to this point. Goff is fifth in attempts but the volume isn’t always going to save him because he’s 27th in FPPD. He’s also thrown just seven touchdowns on the season and it’s very hard to have any sort of trust here. With multiple quarterbacks that are under $6,000, Goff is a fairly easy pass for me. 

RB – The Lions backfield is the perfect example of why snap counts are important, but they are also just one tool in the toolbox. Last week saw D’Andre Swift play over 70% of the snaps and he rolled up 102 scrimmage yards with a score and added six receptions for a total of 17 touches. Just looking at that, you may think that Swift is taking over the backfield but not so fast. Jamaal Williams only played 32% of the snaps but he touched the ball 15 times. This approach from Detroit is completely understandable but it does cap the ceiling Swift carries every week. His salary is low enough that he is well in play and the Bengals are tied for the second-most receptions given up against backs. I like Swift for GPP but we can’t exactly trust him in cash with Williams soaking up so much usage. Swift should continue to be on the low side of popularity and with a team-leading 21.6% target share, he makes a lot of sense as a run-back for a Bengals stack. 

WR – I’m not sure I want to mess with anyone past Amon-Ra St. Brown, who appears to be coming on in his rookie year with two straight weeks with eight targets. Now Quintez Cephus joins Tyrell Williams on the IR and there are not many bodies left. In the past two weeks, St. Brown has had an air yards share of 18.4% but has a 23.5% target share. No other receiver is in double digits in that time and St. Brown has been in the slot for 64% of the time, leaving him on Mike Hilton most of the time. Hilton has allowed an 82% catch rate and a 1.81 FPPT so St. Brown is still fairly cheap for his new role. 

TE – The metrics certainly still point to T.J. Hockenson being an elite option at the position but the results have been….not good in the past three weeks. The total in those three weeks has only been 13.4 DK points on 13 targets and the price just isn’t really moving. He is still sixth in targets, eighth in RZ targets, fifth in receptions and eighth in yards but the bulk of it has come from the first two weeks. There has to be a big game coming with these types of metrics but I would reserve my Hockenson lineups for game stacks. The Bengals have yet to play any tight end of repute but they also have only allowed 153 yards to the position so far on just 16 receptions. 

D/ST – There is a lot of risk to this play but Detroit is quietly fourth in pressure rate and sixth in sack percentage on the season. Joe Burrow has been brought down 14 times already and they have turned the ball over seven times, which is good news. The bad news is they also sit 30th in total DVOA so they could wind up getting gashed in every facet by the Bengals offense. Still, they are so cheap that if they can get 3-4 sacks and a turnover, that could be enough to get them there. 

Cash Plays – Swift, St. Brown 

GPP Plays – Hockenson, D/ST 

Chargers at Ravens, O/U of 52 (Ravens -2.5) 

Chargers 

QB – Just putting aside fantasy for a minute, this quarterback matchup is the best of the weekend in my eyes and will be wildly entertaining to see Justin Herbert face off against another young gun. Herbert is coming off just a monster game (as is his counterpart) with over 45 DK points and he’s just playing phenomenal ball right now. He’s put himself on the forefront of the MVP conversation in the early going and his arm is flat-out special. After five weeks, he checks in fourth in yards, seventh in air yards, second in attempts, fourth in RZ attempts, and 12th in FPPD with the third-most touchdown passes. With Baltimore only ranking 20th in DVOA against the pass and giving up the fourth-most passing yards, Herbert is a dynamite play again this week in all formats. 

RB – Perhaps the largest knock on Austin Ekeler coming into the season was the potential lack of RZ work. Well, he has answered that concern in spades as he is fourth in RZ rushing attempts and 11th in RZ targets among backs while averaging almost 25 DK points per week. Since Week 1 when he was fighting an injury, he’s had at least five targets in every single game and the low mark for touches is 17. He is a workhorse in about every sense of the word, so I don’t believe him to be overpriced at all. The matchup used to be scary but the Ravens defense isn’t quite as good as it has been in the recent past. Also, the Chargers offense is so difficult to defend overall and Ekeler is sixth among backs in receptions so the floor is high as well. 

WR – I tend to think that Keenan Allen will close the gap a little bit on Mike Williams in fantasy points since Williams is leading 114.1 to 76.9 but I’m becoming less sure each week. Williams has just two fewer targets on the year but has a higher air yards share by almost 10%. Both players are in the top seven in receptions on the year and Williams holds a serious edge in yards at 471-369. He also has six EZ targets to three although Allen holds the lead in RZ targets at 9-5. This game is shaping up to be a huge shootout and my only beef with Williams is the price. He’s the WR3 and with the targets being so close, Allen at $6,400 is an easier play to fit in. Allen also plays in the slot a lot more and sees mostly Tavon Young in the alignment. Young has allowed a passer rating of 146.1 on nine targets so far while Williams gets Marlon Humphrey. He’s allowed just 13 receptions on 24 targets for a 1.75 FPPT. Both are well in play but I would prefer Allen just by a hair. 

Update – Williams has not practiced all week and if he’s out, Allen is a stone cold lock in cash games.

TE – Donald Parham has had a touchdown heater with one in each of the past two games but he’s seen a total of five targets and has only carved out a 6.3% target share in those two games. Jared Cook is sitting at 12.7% and is still the much better and safer play for just $300 more. Cook is only on the field about 60% of the time but he’s eighth in routes and just outside of the top 12 in both receptions and yards. It’s interesting to see that he’s seventh in unrealized air yards and Baltimore has had issues with tight ends all year, by the numbers. They have faced Kelce and Waller so grain of salt there but Cook is always viable in a stack with Herbert and another Charger. 

D/ST – It can be difficult to get too excited to play defense against the Ravens (i.e. the Lamar Jackson Show) because it can be hard to see any upside. The Chargers are only 16th in sack percentage and Jackson has been brought down 13 times. Baltimore only has six turnovers on the season and the Chargers have been so poor stopping the run, they could get trampled. LAC is also only 18h in total DVOA so they don’ seem to be the greatest fit ever. 

Cash Plays – Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams

GPP Plays – Cook 

Ravens 

QB – Not to be outdone by Herbert, Lamar Jackson had a masterful game on Monday night. He overcame a bad fumble to post one of the best games of his entire career and put the Ravens squad on his back with a mind-boggling 504 yards of total offense. Jackson became the first player ever to throw for over 400 yards and complete at least 86% of his passes and I’m not sure the ’86 Bears were stopping him last week. His touchdown rate came up to 4.8% but is still lagging behind his career mark of 6.4% which means we should have more to come. Jackson is first in air yards per attempt, first in air yards, fifth in yards, fifth in deep ball completion rate, and second in FPPD. If you’re not playing one of the quarterbacks in the Chiefs game, this game is surely the next stop. The Chargers do rank 11th in DVOA against the pass but I’m not sure I care when Jackson is sitting at this salary. 

RB – Baltimore had their streak of 100-yard rushing games snapped last week but they might get right back on track in this one. LA has been decimated on the ground and has given up the most rushing yards to backs in the NFL at 679 through five games. They have faced the seventh-most attempts but teams tend to attack your weakness and the tandem of Cleveland last week and Baltimore this week is a horrible 1-2 punch for the Chargers defense. Latavius Murray would likely be the lead back again but I’m interested to see if Ty’Son Williams has left the doghouse yet. We’ve said it before – YPC isn’t everything but when Murray sits at 3.4 yards for the season and Williams sitting at 5.5 in mostly the same offense is saying something. Williams has had issues with ball security and blitz pickup, which will get any back off the field in a hurry. It’s still a situation to monitor but one of these Ravens backs shapes up to be a fantastic play on Sunday. 

WR – We should expect rookie Rashod Bateman to make his debut this week but the star of this corps is still Marquise Brown and the price is flat disrespectful. He’s averaging almost 22 DK points and is still under $6,000. He’s been moving around with 21% of his snaps in the slot so I’m not exactly worried about the matchup. Brown is eighth in yards, has scored five times, and if he catches even one of his drops in Detroit he would be a top-five receiver on the year. The Chargers boast Michael Davis, Asante Samuel Jr., and Chris Harris at corner but Brown has the speed to beat any of them on any play. Across the past 12-14 games dating back to last year, Brown has been one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy. 

TE – Holy smokes Mark Andrews was great on Monday night. He made big catch after big catch and put up 44 DK points, which is just nuts. You obviously can’t expect that again but his salary was released before the game and he’s coming on a little bit. He’s been over 18 in two of his past three games and he’s fifth in routes, fifth in air yards share, second in total air yards, first in yards and second in receptions. Sure, one massive game helps a ton but the six RZ targets are fourth as well. We’re not going to see the Ravens pass so much very often, but the tools are all there and if you don’t go Kelce, Andrews is a phenomenal play here. The Chargers have allowed the third-most yards against the position along with being tied for the most touchdowns allowed at four. 

D/ST – We’re at the point that I won’t touch a defense who’s up against LA. That’s a wildly talented unit and the Ravens just got pushed around by *checks notes* Carson Wentz. 

Cash Plays – Jackson, Hollywood, Andrews

GPP Plays – Murray 

Vikings at Panthers, O/U of 44.5 (Vikings -1.5)

Vikings 

QB – I’ve happily played Kirk Cousins on a couple of slates this year, but this one doesn’t strike me as another week to test it. Cousins is a better player than he typically gets credit for but I’m also not going out of my way to play him in tougher matchups. Carolina checks that box sitting second in DVOA against the pass and they have allowed the fewest yards so far on the second-fewest attempts. They also have yielded just seven touchdown passes and can get pressure like few other teams thus far. Cousins deserves credit for ranking 10th in pressured completion rate at 49.3% but this defense is tough and we don’t need to force it, especially on the road. 

RB – We will have to circle back when we know more but the broad strokes here are if Dalvin Cook plays and is ready to roll, you’re not getting him under $8,000 very often regardless of the matchup. Likewise, if Cook sits again, Alexander Mattison is still wildly cheap at $6,200. He’s put up 26 and 30 DK in games that Cook hasn’t been active for this year and has touched the ball a total of 64 times in those two games. It has to be noted that Mattison got those starts in a smash spot against the Lions and Seahawks. Maybe he doesn’t put up 26 or more against the Panthers, who have only allowed 433 scrimmage yards to backs. It would still be hard to overlook a player who has averaged 32 touches in Cook’s absences. Let’s see what the practice reports bring us. 

Update – I’m very tempted to have some exposure to Cook this week. All the attention is on the mid-range and he’s sooooooo cheap. I get the matchup is terrible, but this is Dalvin with no injury designation under $8,000. Normally the field flocks to him and by all expectations, they are not in this spot.

WR – Adam Thielen has really kind of struggled after the explosion in Week 1 and we see what he looks like when he’s not scoring and it’s not always going to be pretty. He is down to 70th in yards per route and outside the top 30 in yardage so far. We can’t even blame unrealized air yards because he’s 40th in that metric. All this is coming with the fourth-most routes in the league and with the matchup, he’s not that interesting to me. 

Justin Jefferson remains in the top 10 in routes, receptions, yards, and he’s 23rd in yards per route. He’s also in the top 12 in air yards share and targets overall and the individual matchup may not be that bad for him. He should get plenty of C.J. Henderson or Donte Jackson, who both have allowed at least a 1.88 FPPT. I’m not making him a priority since I don’t particularly trust Cousins in the matchup but he will surely not be popular. 

TE – It always seems like you can maybe play Ty Conklin but the reality is in four games, he hasn’t crossed 8.1 DK points. Conklin is 10th in routes and 10th in receptions but is also just 18th in yards and 19th in RZ targets. The Panthers have only allowed 214 yards and two scores so the 13.6% target share is fine, but not exactly worth paying for in my eyes. 

D/ST – I played them last week and I may go back to the well, although the matchup is tougher. The Vikings are third in sack percentage, second in pressure rate, and are only one sack away from the lead in the league. Carolina is tied for the fourth-most sacks given up so they can get home, but the return of a star player lowers their appeal. 

Cash Plays – Cook 

GPP Plays – Jefferson, Thielen, D/ST 

Panthers 

QB – Things totally bottomed out for Sam Darnold last week with just nine DK points but he’s played so well for the most part that I’m not shy to go back to him. It needs to be pointed out that he’s thrown five interceptions the past two weeks but he’s faced two top DVOA defenses against the pass without a main cog in the offense. While Minnesota ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass (very surprising), Darnold gets that main cog back this week and he’s still 10th in attempts overall and 16th in FPPD. Where Darnold has really shone early is pressured completion rate, which sees him sitting fifth at 56.6%. That’s a valuable skill to have against the Vikings pass rush and he could be a sub-3% play that scores over 20 DK points. 

RB – Welcome back Christian McCaffrey. We’ve missed you. The Panthers cut Rodney Smith after Sunday’s game, which is very telling that CMC will be back this week. He seemingly was close last week so we can feel comfortable playing him in our lineups and he will be chalk this week. Not only is he below $9,000 on DK (insert your favorite GIF of someone laughing), but he is the only back on the slate hat is over $8,000. Just like we saw with Derrick Henry last week, the field will (rightfully) flock to CMC and I will be overweight in GPP as well. You simply don’t get a player of this caliber at this price tag and when you do, you hammer it. He already has over 300 scrimmage yards under his belt in two games and about a quarter worth of playing time this year. CMC is still fourth in the team in targets, which says all you need to know. Minnesota has allowed 790 scrimmage yards against backs so far this year and this is a fantastic spot with an egregious salary. Don’t galaxy brain this one. 

Update – CMC is out and I am sad. Chubba Hubbard racked up 29 total touches last week and was utilized more in the passing game, which was very encouraging. He really shouldn’t be under $6,000 while CMC is inactive. Minnesota is 20th in DVOA against the pass

WR – I can’t do another week chasing my tail with Robby Anderson but this is a fantastic bounce-back spot for D.J. Moore. He finally had a down game but this week he draws a good bit of Patrick Peterson in coverage and he’s allowed a 1.79 FPPT and a 13.9 YPR. Moore is going to give him some issues in this one and he’s bringing an elite set of metrics to the party. He’s in the top 22 in air yards share, air yards, receptions, yards, routes, target share, and yards per route. You honestly can’t ask for much more at this salary and while I won’t have a need in cash with McLaurin, what a pivot Moore could turn out to be. 

TE – With the expectation that CMC is back, it’s really difficult to feel comfortable with either Ian Thomas or Tommy Tremble getting a ton of targets again. Tremble has only played 38% of the snaps the past two weeks while Thomas is at 63% but they have combined for just 13 targets. Some of those are going to funnel toward CMC and I will pass here. 

D/ST – All in all, the Panthers are one of the better options on the slate. They are second in sack percentage while leading the league in pressure rate and they sit third in sacks. Cousins has only been brought down nine times but his pressure rate is over 30%, third-highest among starting quarterbacks. Carolina is also second in total DVOA and sits under $3,000. 

Cash Plays – D/ST 

GPP Plays – Hubbard, Moore, Darnold 

Cardinals at Browns, O/U of 49 (Browns -3)

Cardinals 

QB – It’s been a slow three weeks for Kyler Murray and one stat that jumps out is through those three games, he has a combined 59 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown. That’s not super ideal when a quarterback is only 19th in attempts (though sixth in yards). Kyler is the best at completing the deep ball at a staggering 72.7% and he’s second in clean completion rate and catchable pass rate, so he’s about as accurate as you could ask for. The good news is he’s eighth in RZ passing attempts but the rushing numbers just haven’t been overwhelming so far. Just among quarterbacks, he’s seventh in RZ carries, ninth in rushing yards, and fourth in carries. hose are all fine, but not exactly what we were expecting. Cleveland is only 19th in DVOA against the pass and if they can get pressure on Murray, maybe it forces him to leave the pocket a little bit. I do prefer Mahomes and the players from the Ravens game at this point.

Update – This has turned into a miserable spot for Kyler and the Cardinals. They will be without multiple coaches including head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler’s shoulder is banged up a little, limiting his rushing upside. There is supposed to be wind up to 20 MPH. The whole Cardinals team is mostly a fade for me in this spot.  

RB – It was not a banner day for the duo of Chase Edmonds and James Conner last week. Edmonds was fighting a hammy injury and generated just 34 yards on nine touches while Conner managed 37 yards on 11 touches. When you score a touchdown like Conner did and only manage 10.7 DK points, that’s nothing to get excited about. It has been hard to play either with much confidence and that remains the case this week. Unless one misses, they both have such defined roles that it caps each other. Conner is going to be the man in the RZ with 15 carries while Edmonds is the man in the passing game with a 16.6% target share. Given their prices and the value on the slate, it’s pretty easy to fly on by these players. If you want to attack the Browns defense, I’d rather go with Edmonds since the passing game is more stable than banking on a touchdown but I don’t see myself playing either. 

WR – This may be my least favorite part of the article because I’m not sure how to project this receiving corps. We saw DeAndre Hopkins get back in the groove a little bit last week with a score and 6/87 but he only had nine targets. That’s the most Nuk has had all year with just a 21% target share. My view on him hasn’t changed very much as I think he’s more WR2 with upside but he’s still very much priced as a WR1. The rest of the corps in A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk all split 13 targets which are so thin that it’s difficult to get after. 

The only thing to hold on to is Moore and Kirk split snaps about right down the middle this past week so perhaps it’s a sign that Moore will get involved to a higher degree. Moore has played most of his snaps in the slot (as has Kirk) and that would leave them on Troy Hill for the most part. That’s better than Nuk dealing with mostly Denzel Ward but none of these options are cash plays. I do like trying to get the big game from Moore but it could easily be Kirk as well and that has been the issue with the Cards all year. 

TE – It appears that Maxx Williams suffered a serious knee injury and Demetrius Harris appears to be next in line, sort of. He only has three targets on the season but he played nearly 60% of the snaps last week. If we didn’t have a strong value already in RSJ for Washington, maybe I’d be a little more interested. The difference is we’re projecting Harris to take a role while we’ve seen RSJ do it and the price difference is only $500. 

D/ST – Along with the Panthers, I dig the Cardinals here to some extent as well. Defenses are so tricky sometimes you just play a good one at a cheap price and hope for the best. Arizona is fourth in total DVOA, 11th in sack percentage has forced 10 takeaways, and is allowing under 18 points per game in real life. Cleveland exploded last week but they haven’t been the most prolific offense this season. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Edmonds, Moore, Kirk, Nuk, Green

Browns 

QB – I for one will not be buying in o the odd Baker Mayfield game where he barely clipped 300 yards and threw for two scores. Even after that, he sits 26th in attempts, 24th in RZ attempts, 22nd in yards, 31st in deep ball completion rate, and 27th in pressured completion rate. With Arizona sitting third in DVOA against the pass and giving up the eighth-fewest passing yards, it’s very difficult to build a case for Mayfield. 

RB – We got the Nick Chubb monster game and it happened pretty much like we said it had to happen. He didn’t score twice but 161 yards and a touchdown tend to play well for DFS. Nothing really happened this past week to make me re-think this Cleveland backfield. Chubb will always be a strong option as he’s one of the best pure running backs in football. His floor for DFS is super low with just about no passing work and now he’s over $7,000. You have to ask yourself how likely it is he scores 21-24 DK points with just rushing yards and touchdowns before plugging him in. Arizona is 13th in DVOA against the run and they have surrendered 493 yards on the ground. Kareem Hunt remains heavily involved in all aspects of the game and he’s leading the team in targets with a paltry 21. He was the better points per dollar play than Chubb (and has been repeatedly) since he has receiving upside and gets RZ and goal-line work. For me, I’ll continue to utilize the better points per dollar player although both are starting to get up there. There are not many teams that the RB6 in PPR settings is priced $1,000 less than the RB12, but that’s what we have in Cleveland. 

Update – Chubb is out. Hunt is the RB6. Do NOT play cash games without Hunt this week.

WR – There has to be a game where it clicks for Odell Beckham at some point. Through his three games, he’s right around 75% of the snaps, leads the team in targets with 19, and has a 35% air yards share. He’s already 20th in unrealized air yards but only 11 of his 19 targets have been catchable at a 57.9% rate. OBJ is 22nd in deep targets and he is extremely cheap for the upside he possesses. He should face Robert Alford who has been targeted 15 times for a 73.3% completion rate and a 1.79 FPPT. With a passing attack that is so low volume and has tight ends and running backs involved heavily, I’m not looking for a different option in this corps. 

TE – I would have never thought David Njoku would have gone for 30 DK last week, especially with the Chargers secondary on the other side. On the season, he and Austin Hooper have split targets almost right down the middle with Njoku holding a slim 17-16 lead. That’s kind of a problem because they both play over 62% of the snaps but they just crush each other most weeks. Njoku hasn’t cleared four DK points in three games. Hooper has yet to hit double digits so we have better options. 

D/ST – The Cardinals haven’t been special lately on offense but I’m not playing the Browns after watching them get shredded by the Chargers. 

Update – Given all the factors working against Arizona, I am fine with the D/ST in GPP.

Cash Plays – Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, OBJ, Njoku, D/ST

Raiders at Broncos, O/U of 44 (Broncos -3.5)

Raiders 

QB – The Raiders are facing a difficult week that includes a coaching change but they specifically left both coordinators in place. The offense should continue to mostly revolve around Derek Carr who has been a strong option for fantasy most weeks. He’s third in attempts, fifth in RZ attempts, second in yards, and third in air yards. Utilizing Henry Ruggs in the passing game is starting to pay off for this offense as it now has a more diverse set of skills and it’s been a big help to Carr. The largest issues are the lack of touchdowns with just eight and sitting 25th in FPPD. Denver is 13th in DVOA against the pass but has also allowed the fifth-fewest yards and only five touchdown passes. I have no real reason to get after Carr this week. 

RB – If Josh Jacobs continues to see five targets a game, that would be a monster boost for his fantasy appeal. I’m not sure I want to project that, but Kenyan Drake has simply not been involved to this point. As we said, I don’t expect a ton to change in this offense since the OC remains in place but the matchup is not ideal for Jacobs. Denver is 10th in DVOA against the run has only given up 344 rushing yards. We can feel great about the volume for Jacobs since he’s had 18 and 20 touches in the past two weeks all we like, but there is not much of a reason to go here with the other players we have in this salary range. Jacobs is a pretty easy back to kick out of the pool this week in my eyes. 

WR – There are only two receivers that have a target share of over 11.9% since Week 1 and they are Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow. Ruggs is not likely to be a high-volume option at just a 16.1% share but he leads the team in air yard share at 30.1%. Ruggs is 11th across the NFL in total air yards and with his elite speed, it can break open a game at any moment. He also has the 14th most unrealized air yards but there is some major volatility. He’s scored under 13 DK points in four of five games and faces some of Kyle Fuller, who doesn’t have the speed to keep up with him. 

The safer play is Renfrow who is mostly in the slot at 59.2% and he’s 15th in receptions. That’s a nice bump on DK and Bryce Callahan plays the slot. He’s only been targeted 12 times and has only allowed 57 yards but Renfrow is such a big part of this offense that I would still trust him in this spot. 

TE – We talked about this last week but the trend continued for Darren Waller and that is he’s not been the target hog we saw in Week 1. In the past four games, he’s only seen 29 targets and that’s tied with Renfrow for the team lead. It’s also under 21% for the target share and he trails Renfrow in both receptions and yards over the past month. Overall, Waller is first in routes, third in yards and receptions, and first in unrealized air yards. I would have to think that Kelce is going to be very chalky so the argument is there to play Waller instead. I’m just not super thrilled to see where this offense has been for Waller in four of five games. 

D/ST – Vegas is 18th in sack percentage and 13th in total DVOA, making them a not-super-appealing option. Denver has only turned it over four times and while Denver has allowed a pressure rate over 30%, it hasn’t killed the quarterback play to this point. 

Cash Plays – Renfrow

GPP Plays – Ruggs, Waller

Broncos 

QB – Teddy Bridgewater did very, very little for the most part last week but managed to turn it on a little bit late and score just under 20 DK points. While he is eighth in air yards per attempt and seventh in RZ completion rate, Teddy B sits 25th in attempts and just 23rd in deep ball completion rate. Combine that with being 18th in FPPD and we don’t have the most appealing option for fantasy. The loss of multiple receivers has not helped but Vegas has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards on the 12th most attempts and only six touchdowns. Ranking 14th in DVOA against the pass is respectable so I will not have much reason to go here. 

RB – We’re pretty much just treading water in the Broncos backfield. I would love to see Javonte Williams get the lead here but it’s not happening. He and Melvin Gordon split the carries almost dead down the middle this past week as always, with Williams generating 61 rushing yards to 34 for Gordon. What I think happens in this game is the same script we saw for the Bears last week. Both Damien Willams and Khalil Herbert produced, but if you don’t get the touchdown you’re not going to be all that happy. We’ve said for three weeks that we want to get ahead of the Williams breakout game and that theory applies, but this feels like the wrong slate to take that chance with the other backs around him. 

WR – Denver is down to only two receivers that matter for fantasy in Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Sutton is getting up there in salary and I can’t say he’s my favorite target on the slate. Still, since Jerry Jeudy was injured Sutton leads the team in targets with a 27.7% rate and a 47.3% air yards share. He’s also leading in the EZ targets so the value of his role would be the highest to chase. He could avoid Casey Hayward, whose alignments so far would face more of Patrick. He’s been pretty consistent outside the Baltimore game when Drew Lock played with at least 12 DK in four of five games. The target share isn’t bad either at 18.5% but neither are the strongest plays this week. 

TE – I think Noah Fant might be the most boring player at the position to discuss. He’s sixth in routes run and eighth in receptions, both of which are interesting. he’s also 17th in yards and 31st in yards per route. His aDOT is only 6.0 yards and that is the lowest among the options in the Denver passing game. I’ll give him credit for being fourth in RZ targets but overall, there’s not a lot to write home about here. Fant is a great athlete but they aren’t exactly using him as such in this offense. 

D/ST – The Broncos are a strong play in real life as they are only allowing 15.2 points per game, are 10th in total DVOA, and have 12 sacks to go along with the eighth-highest sack percentage in football. Still, I can’t justify this salary as we’re pushing $4,000. Derek Carr is third in sacks taken at 15 but it’s a lot to ask for a return at the price point. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Sutton, Williams, Fant, Patrick 

Cowboys at Patriots, O/U of 51 (Cowboys -3.5)

Cowboys 

QB – I will admit that I struggle with Dak Prescott a little bit. He’s wildly efficient right now and playing the best football of his career. He’s only 19th in attempts but he’s top 10 in RZ attempts, yards per attempt, accuracy rating, deep ball completion rate, and catchable pass rate. The touchdown rate of 7.9% is wildly above his career number of 4.8% so that is a small red flag and if he’s not throwing 3-4 scores, throwing it 32 times or fewer will make it a bit difficult to sustain fantasy worth at the salary. With the Cowboys a road favorite, I don’t think it’s wise to slot in Dak for more than 35 attempts at the most and I much prefer Lamar or Herbert in this range. Dallas has shown us how they handle positive game scripts. 

RB – Reading that game script has been important for the Cowboys this season. As we talked about, the passing attack has not been seeing heavy volume for the past month and if you think that script plays out again, Ezekiel Elliott is still cheap. He went for 28 DK last week and his price rose by $100. OK? Thanks for that love DK because there is just no way that should be a thing. Zeke is third in carries across the past four weeks with five rushing touchdowns and 419 rushing yards. He’s not garnering a ton of targets with 14 but it’s just enough to have a little bit of a safety net. Despite New England adding a lot to their front seven in free agency, they sit just 22nd in DVOA against the run and have allowed 490 yards on the ground. The scary part about that is the Pats have faced four of the bottom seven teams in rushing yards per game. This is easily the most accomplished rushing team they have faced and Zeke is a road favorite. He could be very overlooked and if that’s the case, makes for an elite GPP play. Tony Pollard continues to be involved, but it is clear who the alpha in the offense is and that is an underpriced Zeke. 

WR – We’re going to tie this together in the tight end section, but in the past four weeks when the Cowboys have mostly been in winning scripts, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have been under a 22% target share and the highest score between the two of them has been 18.8 DK from Lamb last week. If we’re thinking the Cowboys are in another positive game script, Lamb and Cooper would be hard-pressed to get to a 3x return here. Cooper has a bit of a tougher matchup on paper against J.C. Jackson who is sporting a 1.40 FPPT on 28 targets so far. Lamb should face Jalen Mills who would be the easier path but neither salary is the most appealing thing ever. I’d rather play the running game and it’s startling to see the next stat. 

TE – Here’s something fascinating – Dalton Schultz leads the Cowboys in targets over the past three weeks and it’s not exactly close. He has 23 targets in that time and Cooper and Lamb have combined for 27. I don’t really expect that trend to continue but the connection between him and Dak has been real. Schultz also leads in RZ targets and has 18 receptions with three touchdowns in the past three games. New England looks great against tight ends but they have played nobodies at the position so far. Schultz is only 20th in routes but he’s second in target rate, fourth in receptions, and fifth in yards. He’s still under $5,000 and all the metrics at hand tell us he shouldn’t be. 

D/ST – If the other sub-$3,000 options aren’t your speed, Dallas is where you should head. They are on the road but they are also sixth in total DVOA and sit second in the league in turnovers forced with 12. While they do sit 30th in sack percentage, it says a lot that they’re forcing turnovers with no sacks. Dan Quinn has made a big difference for this group and the Patriots are tied for the second-most turnovers. Dallas should be able to force a rookie quarterback into a couple of mistakes here. 

Cash Plays – Zeke, Schultz, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Pollard

Patriots 

QB – Dallas is seventh in DVOA against the pass and they have 10 interceptions already, but I think Mac Jones could have some moderate value. I use the word moderate with purpose because the highest DK score he’s had so far has been just 17 DK but at $5,100, he does save plenty of salary. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards in football in part because they’ve faced the second-most attempts and they’ve given up 10 touchdowns. The rookie is ninth in attempts but only 20th in yards and 30th in FPPD. You’re banking on the script, matchup, and likely some garbage time to get you there but it is possible with such a low price. 

RB – Last week screamed it was a Damien Harris spot until late in the week and he was without four offensive linemen. This week I would lean much more towards playing Brandon Bolden if anyone out of this backfield. The expectation is for the Patriots to trail and if they do, Bolden would be the most valuable Patriots player in the backfield. Since James White has gone down, Bolden has 14 targets, good for an 11.6% target share. White was at an 11.9% share and he would have been an interesting value in his spot. Bolden may not be as skilled as White, but the role is certainly his. It’s not a time to play a two-down hammer back and that is exactly what Harris is. Bolden could be a strong punt if you decide to spend elsewhere, although it’s much easier to just play Darrel Williams. 

WR – It’s very interesting to see that if alignments hold, Jakobi Meyers would not see a lot of Trevon Diggs and that would be a huge boost for Meyers. He is the only Patriots player with a target share over 14% (and the only one I’d be interested in past a tight end) and his air yards share is 29.9%. The lack of touchdowns is simply baffling for his role in the offense and that has to change at some point. Meyers is fourth in routes, 10th in targets, and seventh in receptions. Considering the Cowboys have allowed the third-most yards and are tied for the seventh-most receptions, this is a fantastic spot for Meyers. He could face Jourdan Lewis who has allowed a 1.83 FPPT. There is another clear run-back option after Meyers if you’d like for a mini-stack. 

TE – We’ve come to another strong value as we should project the Patriots to trail and have to throw a lot in this game. Hunter Henry is coming on strong with 19 targets over the past three weeks and he leads Jonnu Smith in snaps and targets in that span. It really seems like he’s gotten up to speed in the offense after an injury in the preseason and only Meyers has more targets in the past three weeks. He also leads in touchdowns with two and Henry is now in the top 12 in routes, receptions, and yards. He would make a lot of sense as a run-back for a Cowboys player. 

D/ST – I will have no Patriots defense here even though they are at home. Dallas only has five turnovers on the year and Dak only has a 13.3% pressure rate with eight sacks taken. 

Cash Plays – Meyers, Henry

GPP Plays – Bolden

Cash Core 4

Kareem Hunt, Khalil Herbert, Travis Kelce, Jakobi Meyers

Lamar Jackson is the highest quarterback in popularity but I’m personally going with Heinicke in cash. Before his dud last week against the Saints, he rattled off three straight QB1 performances.

GPP Core 4 

Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, At Least Two Players from KC/Wash

I’m mixing in anyone from the Chiefs game into every single lineup with two players at a minimum. In one lineup, I do plan to go cheaper at running back over Mixon and Hubbard to play Kelce and Hill together.

Stacks

Chiefs/Washington – All of it. Literally, all of it.

Chargers/Ravens – Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams, Cook – Run-Back – Hollywood, Andrews, Murray, Jackson

Bengals/Lions – Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins – Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson, St. Brown

The next set of games is more of a mini-stack focus for me as opposed to anything over three players.

Texans/Colts – Cooks – Run Backs – Taylor, Pittman

Packers/Bears – Adams, Jones Run-Backs – Robinson, Herbert, Mooney

Cowboys/Patriots – Zeke, Lamb, Schultz, Cooper Run-Backs – Meyers, Henry

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5

I’m not sure about you but I’m anxious to put Week 4 behind me. Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, and Odell Beckham were among the players that I loved last week and did absolutely nothing. That’s going to happen some weeks in football but I’m more than ready to get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5 and get back on track! 

Patriots at Texans, O/U of 39.5 (Patriots -8.5)

Patriots 

QB – In theory, Mac Jones is sort of in play but I’m not sure how you could feel confident about it. He is coming off arguably his best fantasy game with two touchdown passes and over 250 yards passing and that couldn’t quite get him to 18 DK points. While that is over 3x return, it also doesn’t keep up with the quarterback scale. You can find players in the $6,000 range that can go over 25 DK. WHat’s wild is seeing Houston sitting in eighth in DVOA against the pass but bottom 12 in yards allowed. They have already allowed four rushing touchdowns but that’s not something that Jones can take advantage of. Jones is sixth in attempts but I’m not sure we can expect that to continue and even then, he’s 32nd in FPPD at just 0.32. 

RB – Typically, Damien Harris is not going to be on our radars for DK because he has such a low receiving floor. He only has eight targets all season and that can be dicey on a PPR site. This game could be a strong exception since the Texans are heavy underdogs and have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards against backs so far this year and three touchdowns. Harris was averaging 15 attempts per game ahead of the Buccaneers game and we should learn to just not pay much attention to those for backs. Tampa’s run defense just doesn’t allow big games and teams are not running into the brick wall. The Texans are allowing 4.5 yards per carry so far and if Harris gets another 15+ carries, he has a good shot at a score (or two) and 80-100 rushing yards. I’m willing to pay $5,500 on DK for that potential even if Harris is a zero in the receiving game. I’m not sure if this game would be the script to try it, but it appeared that Brandon Bolden got the first shot at replacing James White. He played just 32% of the snaps (White played around 44%) and Bolden saw six targets (White was about 6.5) and Bolden is the minimum price. The White role has been valuable to Jones so as a GPP play, you can try it. I could also see this game being super low-scoring and played at a snail’s pace, limiting the need for Bolden. 

Update – I was as excited as you can get about Harris but the Patriots will be missing four offensive lineman. I’m not playing a limited running back in that scenario unless you play a bunch of lineups. If anything, I may be more willing to take a flier on Bolden (and Meyers aces a step up as well for PPR sites). If the run game doesn’t do well, the short passing with Bolden and Meyers becomes more important. Both tight ends take a small step up as well.

WR – The only receiver we should be slightly interested in for a full slate is Jakobi Meyers, who is still on the hunt for his first touchdown since college. Even still, he’s playing at the fifth-highest slot rate in football and we love that for rookie signal-callers, along with an aDOT of just 8.9 yards. On a site like DK, he’s far more valuable with a full PPR scoring system and he can still be useful even without a score. He’ll mostly see Desmond King when he’s in the slot, which used to be an issue. King has fallen off however and through nine targets, he’s allowed a 109.5 passer rating and a 1.91 FPPT. With no other receiver earning more than a 14.5% target share, I won’t go further than Meyers. 

TE – If we’re going to play a tight end, it seems like it has to be Hunter Henry over Jonnu Smith. I will grant you that Smith has five RZ targets as opposed to two for Henry, but Henry is playing over 73% of the snaps in this offense. The role seems to be expanding as we go with 11 of the 18 targets coming across the past two weeks. The Texans have scuffled against the position as well with three touchdowns allowed (tied for second-most) and sit in the bottom five in receptions and yardage. With Henry being under $4,000, he’s my preferred option out of the duo but both need a score to truly help your lineup. 

D/ST – In a vacuum, it’s pretty clear that the Patriots defense would be the best play on the slate. Houston has allowed a pressure rate of almost 29%, has seven turnovers, is 28th in points per game, and the Patriots have five takeaways with 10 sacks. Bill Belichick is going to eat this offense for breakfast. Having said all of that, it’s a very rare week where I want to shell out $4,900 for defense so they likely do not make my build. Even if we get strong running back value on the slate, I’d just as soon spend the savings elsewhere. 

Cash Plays – Meyers, Henry

GPP Plays – Jones, Harris, Bolden, Smith, D/ST

Texans 

QB – Davis Mills scored negative DK points last week and faces one of the best coaches in football history with a sterling track record against rookie quarterbacks. Moving on. 

RB – I will continue to not touch this three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay. Ingram has had just 24 carries since 28 in Week 1, Johnson leads in targets but only has 10 total, and no player has played over 35% of the snaps. That’s just not helpful on an offense that is barely functioning with w quarterback that may not be ready for NFL action and has to go against Bill Belichick in New England. 

WR – This side is short and sweet as well because normally, we’d just say play Brandin Cooks and move on. He owns a 56.9% share of the air yards in the offense and has a 37.1% target share. However, I fully expect the Patriots to bracket him relentlessly since they always try and take out the opposing team’s number one option. They’re going to force Mills to come off his primary read and sort the field, which isn’t likely to end well. I won’t have a single Texan in any lineup this week and that’s an easy “stand” to make. 

TE – Both Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins have a target share under 10%, Akins has two RZ targets, and they both play over 56% of the snaps. When you’re tied to one of the worst quarterbacks on the slate, there’s no real reason to tread this low. 

D/ST – The Texans have generated six takeaways thus far and do draw a rookie quarterback themselves but it’s still hard to back them. They only blitz about 15% of the time and have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league hovering around 16.5%. Mac Jones has had some rookie moments to be sure but this is still a mismatch and I believe we can do better even in the punt territory. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays –None 

Lions at Vikings, O/U of 49.5 (Vikings -8.5)

Lions 

QB – If you’re playing Jared Goff, you’re banking on the Minnesota secondary to continue being not that great and him needing to sling it in the second half of the game. Goff is fifth in attempts and that’s a good thing because he only has seven touchdowns and is 23rd in FPPD. What does scare me is the Vikings can get pressure and Goff is 28th in pressured completion rate but he counters that with the third-highest catchable pass rate at 80.7%. He does stand out for his salary and is a large reason why I wouldn’t want to go with Mac Jones. The script here for Goff is much more conducive for him to eat up some garbage time points and he is averaging 20 DK points. You’d be happy with that at the salary and the ceiling has been above 30 DK this season. Minnesota is only 15th in DVOA against the pass and is in the bottom 12 in passing yards allowed. They’d be even lower if Baker Mayfield could hit a receiver. 

RB – Coach Dan Quinn said during the week that D’Andre Swift would be getting more work this week, so naturally Jamaal Williams had a 6-1 carry lead after one quarter of play last week. Williams also had a 14-12 lead in touches and to be fair, he ground out some good yardage on the ground but I just don’t get this split. You can still safely play Swift over Williams in GPP since Swift is co-leading this team in targets and is second in targets across the NFL. Really, he would have a good shot at the lead if not for a 19 target game from Najee Harris but I digress. The matchup is a little better as well with the Vikings allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and 20 receptions. I feel like if you play a couple of lineups per week, Swift is always in play at this price point since he has shown 4x ceiling and his defense is going to allow points. Minnesota has a much higher functioning offense than the Bears did last week and the Lions need to get this kid the ball to keep up. 

Update – The Lions could be without three offensive lineman as well, so keep an eye on that. I don’t think it has a super strong effect on Swift since we’re playing him more for passing value, but it’s still not ideal.

WR – The matchup is great for both Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus but neither has a target share over 14.1% this year and that is thin. Granted, you’re not paying up for them and we know for sure the Vikings corners can be had. Patrick Peterson would see more of Cephus and has gotten scorched for a 13.9 YPR and a 1.79 FPPT. The other side of the field features Bashaud Breeland and his 2.97 FPPT up against Raymond when he’s not in the slot about 30% of the time. Raymond has a few more targets but these two are similar with an aDOT within 0.2 yards and they both have three RZ targets. Cephus does lead in EZ targets and is cheaper, so that gives a slight edge but neither is a focal point in the passing game to this point. 

Update – I overlooked Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first run of the article. I apologize but he saw eight targets last week and produced 6/70. The Lions spent draft capital on him and they need a receiver to start being dependable in this corps. I would stop short of saying dependable yet, but it’s a good step in the right direction and they could be without a major target in this offense.

TE – It was another slow week for T.J. Hockenson with under 10 DK points but he is still tied with Swift in overall targets and RZ targets on this Lions offense. Only Darren Waller of the Raiders has more targets than Hock at the position so when we see him under $6,000, he is still very much in play. I have a difficult time seeing the Detroit defense slowing down the Vikings offense so we should expect a lot of passing from the Lions. Hockenson will be front and center and the Vikes have allowed the eighth-most yards in football to the position. That’s a little bit of a surprise with their personnel but that’s where we are four weeks in. Hock is a strong run-back option if you’re playing a Vikings stack this week like I have a strong interest in doing. 

Update – This felt like it sprung up out of nowhere. Hockenson is now potentially going to miss this game. He says he has a “chance” to play and that’s not exactly inspiring. If he’s out, I’d be more inclined to play Cephus or Raymond.

D/ST – The Lions were a very popular punt last week but the Vikings have only turned the ball over twice thus far and have allowed a pressure rate of about 27%. They’ve also only allowed seven sacks through four weeks while the Lions continue to lose key elements to the defense, this week being pass rusher Romeo Okwara. I wouldn’t go here myself. 

Cash Plays – Swift, Hockenson 

GPP Plays – St. Brown, Cephus, Raymond, Goff 

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins got a garbage game out of the way and we can safely go right back after him against one of the most vulnerable defenses in football. Detroit is 30th in DVOA against the pass and don’t let the 1,070 yards allowed fool you. Detroit has faced the fewest appeasing attempts so far this year at just 101 and have already surrendered seven touchdowns. Despite the dud last week, Cousins is eighth in attempts, fifth in touchdown passes, 10th in yardage, and 17th in FPPD. The red “6th” in the matchup column is very misleading and I will be happy to play Cousins this week for certain. 

RB – We’ll need to talk during the week about this play. The cliff notes version is if Dalvin Cook is healthy and ready to roll, this is a total smash spot and I love him. If he’s out and Alexander Mattison is playing while Cook sits, this is a total smash spot and I love him. Cook didn’t play over 50% of the snaps last week and may have aggravated his ankle injury. If that’s the case, Mattison is a stone-cold lock in cash games and would honestly be hard to fade in GPP as well. Mattison went down in salary to just $5,500 despite sitting at $6,000 against the Seahawks and the slate releasing well after Cook may have been banged up. Let’s revisit but the Lions have given up the most touchdowns to running backs at nine total and over 540 scrimmage yards in addition to being ranked 26th in DVOA against the rush. 

Update – Cook has openly said he’s not 100% and only logged one limited practice this week. If he’s out, Mattison is a lock but if he plays…it gets difficult. I would just play Henry in cash and move on. Cook would be GPP only for me with the chance of re-injury.

WR – Justin Jefferson has been very solid through the season already and has a game of 29 DK under his belt and he really seems primed to do that again this week. He has a 42.8% share of the air yards and leads the team in targets at 37 which is 12th in the NFL. With the Lions being so short on corners, Amani Oruwariye is likely to be tasked with slowing him down and so far in 15 targets, he’s allowed a 2.27 FPPT and a 130.4 passer rating. He is the second-most expensive receiver on the slate but is potentially my favorite spend-up option. 

If you can’t fit Jefferson, it’s not a bad thing to settle for Adam Thielen although you’re likely to be much more dependent on the touchdowns there. He’s only seven PPR points behind JJ on the year despite having fewer receptions and yards because he’s scored one more touchdown. The targets are basically the same as well, Thielen just doesn’t get the same downfield looks with an 8.4 aDOT. Jefferson is clearly the alpha but I’d be happy to play either player in my lineup this week. Detroit is down to starting their third and fourth corners on the season. 

TE – Tyler Conklin continues to get significant burn in this offense with 76% of the snaps and a 14.4% target share, including a 20% share of the RZ targets. He’s doing this while not being in the top 10 in routes run and not playing hardly any in the slot, which is a compliment to him. With players like Jefferson, Cook, and Thielen on this side, Conklin is never going to be a popular option. He does represent a way to get different with a Vikings stack and if he scores, you’re likely to be pretty happy. Detroit is also in the bottom 10 in yards allowed so there’s a path for Conk to hit at this salary. 

D/ST – Minnesota represents one of the more stable options on the slate in my eyes. They aren’t crazy expensive at just $3,000 and they are tied for the third-most sacks so far with a 27.9% pressure rate. That’s with playing blitz only 21.1% of the time and even with a significant weakness in the secondary, it’s questionable if Detroit can take advantage. The two takeaways are not the most appealing stat ever but the price is solid and Goff has been sacked 10 times. 

Cash Plays – Jefferson, Mattison if no Cook, Cousins, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Cook if active, Thielen, Conklin

Saints at Washington, O/U of 44 (Saints -2) 

Saints 

QB – I’m not a Taysom Hill fan at all, but if you’re playing Jameis Winston to throw the ball 86 times through four games, there isn’t much point. Hill would at least run and add another dimension to the offense if they’re going to play so conservatively. Jameis is fifth in FPPD but it honestly doesn’t matter when you’re not dropping back ad you sit 29th in yards, 30th in air yards, and under 20th in yards and air yards per attempt. Washington sits 29th against the pass in DVOA but Winston is nothing more than a cheap GPP flier if you’re playing a bunch of lineups. I wish I had more confidence since they also are fifth-word in yards allowed and tied for second in touchdowns allowed. 

RB – *Sigh* I really wish I felt more confident in playing Alvin Kamara right now. This is one of the best backs in the entire league but he has 14 targets on the season. What are we doing?? He’s producing on the ground with over 74 yards rushing per game and he ran for 120 yards last week, which is great! He also didn’t score so you only got 15 DK points and at this salary, that really winds up hurting you more than anything else. While Washington has not been anything resembling the defense we thought, they have only allowed 327 yards so far on the ground but they are in the bottom 12 in DVOA. With the severe lack of targets, Kamara is much riskier at this point until we see something change. 

WR – Would I love to try and play a receiver here to take advantage of Washington’s secondary scuffling in the first four weeks? Yes, for sure. Then I look at the Saints receiving corps and realize that Deonte Harris leads with 15 targets, good for *checks notes*… 72nd in the NFL. That’s a Big Yikes and Marquez Callaway is sitting at 13. There is simply not any reliable volume to this passing offense right now and there are no signs of it changing. You have to have efficiency or some type of volume when chasing receiver plays and at these price points, I’ll play the Detroit receivers ahead of Harris or Callaway. I would side with Harris out of the two, but wouldn’t feel good about it. You’re hoping he breaks a long touchdown like Week 1 to pay off in any tangible way. 

TE – I will continue to not even look at Juwan Johnson, despite a touchdown last week. He has exactly 10 targets through four games and you can’t expect success with that amount of work. He’s run 38 routes on the season, 48th among tight ends. Do we need to say much more? 

D/ST – It was a letdown if you played the Saints last week as they didn’t do very much but they still remain a strong defense overall. The surprise is they have only registered six sacks but they mitigate that with eight takeaways already. With Washington only allowing four sacks on the year, this may not be the best matchup for New Orleans. You’re not wanting to rely on two turnovers per game with a pressure rate of just 23%. I would rather just play the Vikings. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – D/ST, Harris

Washington 

QB – I’m quite surprised to see Taylor Heinicke sitting sixth in FPPD after Week 4, but he’s playing fairly well. He’s definitely running to the good side of variance because he’s thrown 14 interceptable passes so far but he’s 12th in yards per attempt and has thrown eight touchdowns. His weapons are changing in this game but I don’t think that’s a total death sentence. Heinicke sits first in pressured completion rate with a 66.7% rate so while the Saints are sixth in DVOA against the pass, they can be had. I’m not making Heinicke a priority play by any stretch but he is under $6,000 and could get very overlooked. 

RB – It really seems like J.D. McKissic is taking a ton of targets away from Antonio Gibson but it’s only a 14-13 advantage for the former. However, it seems that the ceiling for Gibson’s touches is right about 15-18 touches and that’s fine, but you’re going to wish it was more. Gibson hasn’t hit 15 attempts since Week 1 and has a combined five receptions across the last three weeks. Now he walks into a very tough matchup with the Saints who have only allowed 203 yards rushing with two scores and rank inside the top-five in DVOA against the run. They are a little vulnerable through the air with 188 yards allowed (13th most) but playing McKissic is not the most fun proposition with a floor of around 3-5 touches. With the Saints not being a high-end offense at this juncture, Washington may not be in passing mode as much as we would think. 

Update – Gibson is playing with a stress fracture in his shin, which frankly sounds pretty awful. I’m not sure it changes anything, but you do wonder if that’s been part of the reason he’s not getting a ton of touches.

WR – Terry McLaurin is a fully grown man and continues to walk through any matchup put in front of him with a backup quarterback. He’s inside the top 10 in points per game, air yards share, yards, and touchdowns so far. He’s also 11th in yards per route and receptions so even though Marshon Lattimore waits on the other side, I’m not scared. Heinicke is throwing the ball regardless of anything else happening and Lattimore hasn’t been a total shutdown corner with a 1.67 FPPT and a 95.5 passer rating. 

I’m still very interested in Curtis Samuel. Washington was cautious with him to no shock to anyone as he only ran 16 routes. The good news is he drew four targets on 16 routes and now the Football Team will be without their starting tight end. He was in the slot about 32% of the time so he’ll be moving around and a 25% target rate is nothing to be sorry about. Knowing that Samuel is still minimum priced, he doesn’t need a lot to hit and we can only expect the workload to increase with a game under his belt and another week of practice. 

Update – Samuel only logged one limited practice this week, so I would back off taking a shot at Samuel.

TE – With the probable loss of Logan Thomas for this week, Ricky Seals-Jones is the only tight end on the Washington roster to catch a pass this season. He played 93% of the snaps but only saw four targets and that could decrease since Samuel should play more snaps in this upcoming week. As a tone minimum punt, he could make other things fir in the lineup but you have to understand under five DK points is the more likely outcome. New Orleans has only allowed 180 yards and no scores to the position as well, adding a layer of difficulty for Seals-Jones. 

Update – Thomas is indeed out.

D/ST – They have been really poor against the expectations but the price is still very eye-opening. They have a 27% pressure rate and run a blitz around 30% of the time. The takeaways and sacks have not been there with just two and seven respectively and that’s been the surprise. Winston has a 28% pressure rate with just seven sacks and the team has just three turnovers. However, at this salary, I have to admit some interest in Washington. New Orleans is a far cry from the explosive offense we’ve known for so long. 

Cash Plays – McLaurin

GPP Plays – Gibson, McKissic, Heinicke, Seals-Jones

Dolphins at Bucs, O/U of 48 (Bucs -10)

Dolphins 

QB – There are holes back end of the Tampa defense but I’m not sure I want to go after Jacoby Brissett here. He’s 29th in FPPD and only has two passing touchdowns across 119 attempts thus far. Now, the Bucs are tied for the most touchdown passes allowed, they are 31st in yards allowed and are 21st in DVOA against the pass. If Miami is smart, they’re just going to throw a ton because the run game is so unlikely to work. You could twist my arm into it but I remain slightly unconvinced that he has a worthwhile ceiling. 

RB – Can I just say “pass” and move on like a game show? No? Alright, fine. We’ve talked all year about not being able to run on Tampa and Miami has given us no reason to think they can buck the trend. Myles Gaskin is not even at 50% of the snaps anymore, nor is he getting RZ rushes with just one on the entire season. Malcolm Brown has seven attempts in the RZ and Gaskin only having a 10% share of the passing game isn’t enough to get me to bite at his price. In this matchup, I would greatly rather finding the $400 to play Harris from New England and be perfectly satisfied with that process. 

WR – With the news that Will Fuller is back to the IR with a finger injury, we get a little more safety in both Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker. We also know that the Tampa secondary is in tatters with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis both missing, so this is clearly the Achilles heel for the defense. I’m still a little annoyed that Waddle is just the low aDOT player at 4.6 since he’s so shifty in the open field and has the speed that he does, but it is what it is at this point. He’s also only one target off the team lead so I can’t really argue too hard and he’s tied for the lead in RZ targets. Waddle could face Dee Delaney at this point who was undrafted in 2018. Parker could face Richard Sherman for some of the game and it’s not a harsh criticism since Sherman hasn’t played all year but he looked terrible Sunday night. Perhaps a full week gets him more up to speed but Miami is going to have to pass a lot and both receivers are well in play. Waddle is a player that is getting talked about for more chances to field punts and he’s going to have a breakout game sooner or later. 

TE – Mike Gesicki continues to be super affordable and also the usage continues to climb. He’s sixth in routes run, second in slot snaps, and seventh in target share among tight ends. On top of that, he’s third in air yards and second in air yards share, pointing at the type of role he has in the Miami offense these past couple of weeks. Gesicki has also skyrocketed to sixth in receptions and third in both completed and unrealized air yards. With the Buccaneers defense continuing to be elite against the run, he should have plenty of opportunities this week with the Dolphins needing to take to the air to move the sticks. All the metrics support Gesicki continuing to be a weapon, even with other receiving options. The Bucs have allowed three scores and the second-most receptions against the position as well. 

D/ST – I can’t really build the case here. I do get that the Dolphins have a pair of strong corners and in theory, could slow down the passing game, but I don’t expect Tampa to have two poor games in a row offensively. The Dolphins are getting a pressure rate approaching 26% but they only have seven sacks on the season and six takeaways. I don’t see a reason to challenge the Bucs offense. 

Cash Plays – Waddle, Gesicki 

GPP Plays – Parker, Brissett

Buccaneers 

QB – I guess age is catching up with Tom Brady since he didn’t throw a single touchdown pass in the last game. Of course, he would have had one had receivers not dropped at least one but I digress. Miami is 12th against the pass in DVOA and has only allowed seven touchdowns so far. Brady still leads in RZ attempts, is second in yards, first in air yards, and 16th in FPPD. When you lead in attempts, the FPPD isn’t as important and we all know that If you’d like to play Brady, you do so. What I may do is instead of trying to get the receiver right to pair with him is just to play the next man we’re going to talk about with added reception upside if Gio Bernard remains out. 

RB – It’s not exactly the most fun play on the slate, but Leonard Fournette really is likely too cheap given the share of the Tampa backfield he controls. He’s the clear option ahead of Ronald Jones at basically every level, the touchdown for Ronald Jones notwithstanding. Jones only had six touches while Fournette hogged 23 touches altogether and the (likely) continued absence of Gronk will help keep those targets secure. He has been game-script dependent with only seven touches when they got beat by the Rams but he’s had 15 in Weeks 2 and 4. A matchup with the Dolphins would certainly project to be a winning script through most of it and while we don’t love the fact that he only has seven RZ attempts, Miami has allowed the third-most rushing yards and over 650 scrimmage yards thus far. I think we can feel safe with 15 total touches for Fournette and the price doesn’t reflect being the lead back in one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

Update – Gio is questionable and trending towards playing which could take a small amount of stability away from Fournette. That does NOT mean I don’t really like him this week. He is still way, way too cheap.

WR – Taking a stab at which receiver has the best game is always going to be tough with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown all in the mix. AB is difficult to gauge especially since last week he played all of 51% of the snaps but had a whooping 11 targets. He’s playing very little in the slot and has a 25.6% target rate and the best guess would leave AB facing Byron Jones who has only allowed a 1.31 FPPT. Evan would primarily face Xavien Howard and despite being sixth in air yards, Evans has shown us he can disappear with the best of them. Howard has allowed a 1.74 FPPT and a 103.7 passer rating so he’s not been elite, but this is not an easy spot for Evans. The answer could just be Godwin since he plays almost every snap and runs the most out of the slot. He’s number one in routes run and 15th in yards and will face off against Nik Needham. I do want a piece of this offense but I would not play any receiver in cash unless they are projected to be overwhelming chalk. 

TE – If you’re going this route while Rob Gronkowski is still on the mend, Cameron Brate almost has to be your guy. He and O.J. Howard both played over 60% of the snaps but Brate was targeted six times to just one for Howard. That’s not exactly new either because Brate had a 6-2 lead in targets even with Gronk active so we just saw a continuation. Brate is a fine option and if you believe the boundary receivers are a bit more muted in this spot, he makes sense to stack with Godwin and take the path of least resistance when you stack with Brady. 

D/ST – If I’m in this range (and I won’t be), I’d just play the Patriots unit. Tampa has some injuries throughout their secondary that are helping drag down the performance a bit but they have six takeaways and seven sacks. They also run a blitz around 31% which is the fifth-highest in the league, which should lead to a couple of mistakes from the Miami offense. It’s just too hefty a price tag to be that interested. 

Cash Plays – Brady, Fournette

GPP Plays – Godwin, Brown, Evans, Brate 

Packers at Bengals, O/U of 51.5 (Packers -3.5)

Packers 

QB – I’m not particularly buying that the Bengals are going to stick at 11th in DVOA against the pass all year, so Aaron Rodgers has the green light and pretty much always does. It’s a bit crazy to see him just 21st in attempts on the season but with the injuries on defense, he could be in line for more work coming up. I will admit, some of his metrics do not look all that great. He is just 18th in yards per attempt, 26th in passing yards, and only 25th in completed air yards. The RZ work helps with the seventh-most attempts but the first four weeks have been slightly underwhelming from a passing perspective. He hasn’t passed 26.8 DK points yet and even then, that took four touchdown passes. If it were a player other than Rodgers, we’d be skeptical of the salary. 

RB – This isn’t a slight on him but I feel like I almost never get Aaron Jones correct. He’s just one of those guys that I don’t get along with but that’s just been my luck. I wouldn’t get too worked up about the split between Jones and A.J. Dillon last week. That game was pretty much out of reach by the third quarter (more on that later) so there was no real reason to load up Jones with a ton of work. Even then, he still had 18 total touches and he’s fourth in RZ attempts and he has six RZ targets (tied for the league lead) on top of that. He’s scored five times and while it’s a hair frustrating that four of them came in just one game, it’s hard to find many other players with his touchdown equity from week to week. The Bengals started to show one vulnerability on the ground last week and the Packers offense is far more advanced than the Jaguars. I give the Bengals credit for being a top 10 DVOA defense against the run, but that means very little when it comes to an elite option like Jones. 

WR – I’m annoyed that last week I had such large heart eyes for Davante Adams that I totally ignored Randall Cobb. Now, Adams got his normal 11 targets for over 31% of the share which is typically going to work out just like it always does. However, Cobb played 45% of the snaps which was the third most among receivers. Allen Lazard is just out there running cardio while Cobb saw six targets. He’s been running out of the slot over 70% of the time and that means he’s going to face Mike Hilton who has allowed an 82.6% catch rate and a 1.81 FPPT. I certainly wouldn’t expect him to replicate two scores but he is cheap for a larger role in the offense with no Marquez Valdes-Scantling. After Adams disappointed a hefty part of the field, he could be a strong spend-up option because no defense can truly contain him. It was just one of those games last week. 

TE – Robert Tonyan is simply not playable at this price tag for me. It was kind of nice to see him get seven targets in Week 4 after only seeing a combined eight during the first three weeks. However, he is strongly touchdown or nothing and he’s over $4,300. Even to be a contrarian, I don’t think there’s a strong case to be made that suddenly Tonyan is a stronger play than Gesicki for $100 more. Tonyan is 18th in routes and about the only path is he’ll see more targets with MVS out of the lineup. Even then, Marcedes Lewis had a higher aDOT this past week even on two targets so I’m just playing Gesicki and getting all those metrics as opposed to hoping Tonyan scores. 

D/ST – No, thank you. Not only have they missed linebacker Z’Darius Smith all year, but now they will be without elite CB Jaire Alexander. That’s not ideal against a passing game that appears to be finding their footing and on the road. As it stands, Green Bay is in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate and Cincy has only allowed a 21.7% pressure rate so far. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Jones

GPP Plays – Rodgers, Cobb

Bengals 

QB – Joe Burrow may be heating up with his best fantasy game of the year last week and the hope for fantasy is this game just goes up and down. Burrow has yet to throw more than 32 times in a game, which is…surprising, to say the least. In those attempts, he is fourth in yards per attempt and 12th in FPPD so if he starts to sling it more, lookout. Burrow is top 10 in deep-ball completion rate, pressured completion rate, and clean pocket completion rate so really the only metric missing right now is the volume. The Packers offense is more than capable of forcing a ceiling game from Burrow and I am very interested, especially if he gets one of his receivers back from injury. 

RB – People who had Joe Mixon on their teams last year are having flashbacks to Mixon being absent for most of the season. Coach Zac Taylor seems to think it’s day-to-day but we’ll see about that. If Mixon suits up, he appears to be fairly cheap since he is behind only Derrick Henry in carries through four weeks and the Packers ranked 25th in DVOA against the run. There is a small issue of Mixon only having nine targets through the season but he’s also barely over $6,000 on DK. If Mixon doesn’t make it for this game, Samaje Perine would appear to be the next man up as he played 28% of the snaps last week and had four touches. At the stone minimum, it would be hard not to make him a building block in cash because he would be borderline locked into 12-15 touches. That’s all we could ask for and the ceiling would be over 15 DK points. 

Update – It certainly appears that Mixon is going to be out but keep in mind Chris Evans. The Bengals staff says it will be a committee so I would be hesitant to go all in on Perine this week, even at the salary. I would expect Evans to be active in the passing game a little bit this week.

WR – We’ll have to circle back later in the week with the stats of Tee Higgins (who is a gift at $5,000 if healthy). If he makes it back, Cincinnati could have their full receiving trio back in action just in time to pick on a secondary that is likely to miss Jaire Alexander. While the volume hasn’t been there for the passing game yet, Rodgers and the Packers offense could force the issue here. If Higgins is out, Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase become even more priority plays as no receiver is over $5,800. Just remember that when Higgins played in Week 1 and 2, he led the team with 15 targets while Boyd had 13 and Chase had 11. Higgins would be very interesting in all formats if he’s active. 

TE – Whispers – I will not buy the C.J. Uzomah game, I will not buy the C.J. Uzomah game! He went nuts on Thursday night and I went back because I assumed I missed the signals that he was playing a larger role in the passing game with Higgins out. While he played plenty of snaps at 77%, he had one target in Week 3 and five combined in the first three games. We can safely say that his six targets on Thursday were the outlier to his season at this point. The 10.5% target share is indicative of his small role and he’s not in the top 12 in routes run. 

D/ST – As long as the Packers are relatively healthy, I will not challenge Aaron Rodgers and company. 

Cash Plays – Higgins, Burrow

GPP Plays – Chase, Perine, Boyd, Evans

Broncos at Steelers, O/U of 39.5 (Steelers -1)

Broncos 

QB – I will have no Drew Lock on this slate if he winds up being the starter. Pittsburgh might be 23rd in DVOA against the pass but Lock is just not a good quarterback and his salary saving won’t matter if he scores around 12 DK points. If Teddy Bridgewater makes it back, we can discuss it because that is a much better option. 

Update – I’m not playing him but Bridgewater making it back for this game raises all the pass catchers in the offense. I’m much more willing to play a Noah Fant, for instance.

RB – The split continues with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, to the point where it was legitimately 50/50 last week. Just as we discussed last week, they are close to not playable for the most part because you’d have to pick the right guy to break a long play or score. Williams has only hit double-digit DK points once and he scored and MG3 has done it twice with scores in each game. With Pittsburgh still being stingy on the ground with only 335 yards allowed and sixth in DVOA against the run, it’s hard to support either player. I’m still of the belief that Williams will have a breakout game at some point while he’s splitting with Gordon but predicting it is difficult. The RZ attempts are 11-8 for MG3 and the targets are 11-9 for Gordon so he has a slight edge in usage. Talent should win out at some point though for Williams even if we don’t know exactly when (and it may not be this year, in honesty). 

WR – We can look at Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick after a down game for the Broncos offense all around. Sutton especially has an appealing air yards share of almost 40% and even last week, it was 43% even if things didn’t quite connect. Perhaps his largest issue is the fact he has not had a good fantasy game outside of the Jacksonville game and that’s easier to write off as a fluke given opponent. I will point out that Joe Haden has a speed disadvantage and has allowed a 2.25 FPPT and a 13.6 YPR so this could be a quiet spot for Sutton to get right. For Patrick, he’ll be on the opposite side of Haden through most of the game and has a target share of 18% over the past two weeks, just two off the team lead in that time. He’s still fine but as with all of the other offensive pieces, I want Bridgewater in before taking the leap. 

TE – I won’t tell you not to play Noah Fant with how many injuries the skill players from Denver have suffered but he won’t be high on my list at this salary. He’s only ninth in routes, which is a surprise to me and his aDOT is 31st among tight ends, not ideal. What he does have going for him is he’s sixth in receptions and second in RZ targets, and that’s what you’re playing him for. I still feel like he’s a hair expensive but Fant is a mountain of the man and could be an issue for the Steelers linebackers. He is only one target off the lead for the Broncos but could be more of a cash play than a ceiling play. 

D/ST – The Broncos join the ranks of the Patriots and Bucs in that I LOVE the potential, but can’t pay that much. Denver has a pressure rate over 27% and 11 sacks while Pittsburgh has allowed 10 sacks and has proven that their offense is not functional at the NFL level. Until the Steelers make a quarterback change, the opposing defense is always in play. 

Cash Plays – Fant

GPP Plays – Sutton, Patrick 

Steelers 

QB – Everyone knows how I feel about Ben Roethlisberger at this point and he has a hip injury (insert the finger quotes) now on top of it. Denver is seventh in DVOA, has allowed the sixth-fewest yards, and has more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed. You can’t even make the argument it’s a strong matchup. 

RB – Somehow, someway, Najee Harris continues to produce for fantasy with at least 19 DK points in three straight games. A large part of that is because he is co-leading the Steelers with a 20.4% target share and his 35 targets lead all running backs. While his 19 target game certainly skews things, he is going to continue to get a boatload because his quarterback is done. He can’t make NFL-level throws at all and certainly not with consistency so Harris will have to be a large part of the offense. Denver represents a tough spot on paper since they have allowed just 247 scrimmage yards to backs and only one score. The DVOA backs it up as well as they sit in the top 10 and they almost held the Ravens under 100 rushing yards. hey will be on the road but they also should be able to fully commit to stopping the run and let their secondary handle the receivers in the offense. 

WR – With such awful quarterback play, the only player I’ll entertain is Diontae Johnson. He is a target magnet and even with questions about everything else, we can rely on this – 

He is somehow the WR8 in points per game this season, sits 16th in receptions, and seventh in target rate. Patrick Surtain has played pretty well with a 1.49 FPP and 57.7% completion rate allowed so far but Johnson is simply always open. I don’t think he’s a vital need nor do I believe this one to be a strong game stack but I don’t hate him as a one-off or mini-stack with a single Bronco. JuJu Smith-Schuster is currently the WR58 and Chase Claypool needed both Johnson and JuJu to miss time to be relevant. 

TE – An unappealing timeshare with two tight ends and a broken quarterback? Sounds terrible, to be honest. Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth have split snaps almost equally and even when the rookie gets an edge like last week’s 55%, he sees just one target. I’d just as soon play Seals-Jones from Washington. 

D/ST – This play will be a lot more appealing if Teddy Bridgewater can’t clear concussion protocol because Drew Lock just hasn’t proven to be very good. Pittsburgh is fifth in pressure rate even though their blitz rate has come down to just 16.1%. They have only generated three takeaways and that has been an issue, along with ranking 23rd in total DVOA. This will be dependent on the Broncos situation more than anything else. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Najee, Johnson 

Eagles at Panthers, O/U of 45.5 (Panthers -3.5)

Eagles 

QB – Carolina is a tough matchup as they sit fifth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-fewest yards passing but with Jalen Hurts, that isn’t a deal-breaker. Hurts is 12th in attempts, ninth in yards, ninth in FPPD, ninth in play-action completion rate, and 12th in pressured completion rate. He does still have some struggles with just a 67.6% catchable pass rate but at least for fantasy, the rushing yards mitigate every flaw. He is second in carries, second in rushing yards, and averages over 56 rushing yards per game. Constant pressure from Carolina could lead to extra scrambles for Hurts and I will never have a problem playing a rushing quarterback. 

RB – I tried to get Miles Sanders right last week and that certainly did not happen with just 10 touches for 47 yards while Kenneth Gainwell had nine touches and turned that into 89 scrimmage yards and a score. While Gainwell is still only playing about 35% of the snaps, he’s carving out a meaningful role in the offense. Sanders has the easy edge in carries at 34-19 but Gainwell is tied for second on the Eagles in targets at 20. Gainwell also holds a 6-2 edge in RZ targets and only trails by two in RZ rushing attempts. I’m not exactly a huge fan of either, but for an $800 savings in GPP, you could argue that Gainwell is the better play. The receiving work makes it interesting but by no means is he a must-play. 

WR – We started to see the ceiling for Devonta Smith last week with 7/122 and he is still under $6,000 for this slate. Now, the matchup isn’t nearly as good as it was last week as the Panthers have given up under 500 yards passing against receivers. They have also faced the second-fewest attempts to the position which is noteworthy and they have allowed five touchdowns. Smith is ninth in air yards and fourth in unrealized air yards early on as well. Smith easily leads the Eagles with a 22.6% target share and could face off with Donte Jackson or C.J. Henderson. Both players are over a 1.80 FPPT and honestly, Smith is already so smooth in his routes that he’s a difficult cover. 

Jalen Reagor is still carrying a 14% target share and is capable of breaking a big play, especially if he gets Henderson who is still acclimating to his new team. Both Reagor and Quez Watkins can make things work with one play but also have a floor of zero with the other options involved in the offense. 

TE – It’s still a little weird to see Dallas Goedert trail Zach Ertz in targets at 19-16, but that’s how things have gone so far in this offense. Ertz also has the advantage in routes run (only by seven but it still counts), RZ targets by one, and EZ targets by one. With that being said, the salary difference feels a tad extreme. I grant you that Goedert has cleared at least 40 yards in three of four games and has two scores but Ertz has been over 33 yards in three of four and is only one touchdown behind. The Panthers have been middle of the pack against the position so I don’t feel a need outside of maybe part of a game stack, but Ertz at his salary would still be my choice. 

D/ST – Philly is just 24th in DVOA and only has eight sacks on the season. They also only have two takeaways and their blitz rate is way down as well. They are of the slightest interest if only because they’re super cheap but I’m not sure if there is a ton of upside, especially if Carolina is healthier this week. 

Cash Plays – Hurts, Smith 

GPP Plays – Ertz, Gainwell, Goedert, Sanders, Reagor 

Panthers 

QB – We’re not breaking new ground to say that Sam Darnold isn’t going to lead the league in rushing touchdowns for much longer but he’s also sixth in yards, 11th in yards per attempt, and 11th in FPPD. Darnold is far from perfect but remains fifth in pressured completion rate at 57.9%, a nice step up for him. Philly is down to 22nd in DVOA against the pass and has only forced one interception. The small turnover concerns that can creep in for Darnold seem to be muted in this one. He may not be my favorite target of the slate, but he remains a fine option. 

RB – It would be hard to ignore Christian McCaffrey at $8,700 against a team that has allowed the most rushing yards to backs this year at 509 and 24 receptions as well, injury concerns or not. I mean….when do you ever get CMC under $9,000 and in a cupcake matchup based on our seasonal data? He was in full pads Wednesday and Philly is 28th in DVOA. We’ll check back in later in the week but if CMC is ready to rock, this isn’t a question in my eyes. It really is that easy. 

Update – CMC is doubtful, which isn’t surprising even if it is a bummer. My view is Chubba Hubbard is viable, but keep an eye on Rodney Smith. He was brought off the practice squad and they used him in the passing game with five targets while playing 37% of the snaps. Hubbard played just 47% so if Smith is back on the squad, I’d pass on both.

WR – If CMC is back, that would make it more difficult to go after Robby Anderson again although we got the usage that we wanted last week. He had double-digit targets and an air yards share of over 40%, which will typically pay off. One player we don’t have concerns about is D.J. Moore, who has just been incredible so far. The ascension into the elite has been super fun to watch and he’s only 10th in routes, 10th in air yards, and 14th in yards per route. He’s the WR4 because he has the second-most receptions, fourth-most yards, three touchdowns, and the eighth-highest target share. I’m sure he will draw Darius Slay and Slay is playing well with a 1.43 FPPT and 57.9% catch rate. Trevon Diggs was playing well going into Week 4 and Moore still totally smashed, I expect no different here. Darnold absolutely loves him and only six players have more targets than Moore.

TE – The Tommy Tremble Gambit did not pan out last week with a resounding zero points. Ian Thomas had three targets but that was in a super negative game script and we’re better off leaving these players alone this week. 

D/ST – Carolina has been knocked down to fourth in total DVOA but they rank first in pressure rate, first in blitz rate, and second in sacks. What’s interesting is the pressure rate could wind up backfiring. Hurts has only been sacked eight times and leads the league in scramble plays. That could send him flying out of the pocket often in this game so I would probably pass on the Panthers defense in this spot. 

Cash Games – Moore

GPP Plays – Darnold, Anderson, Chubba if Smith is not elevated

Titans at Jaguars, O/U of 48.5 (Titans -4)

Titans 

QB – Let’s regroup on this one when we have an update on health. If the Tennessee offense is full steam, there’s little reason to not be interested in Ryan Tannehill. If he doesn’t have his receivers, it would be pretty easy to pass on him and go just about anyone else.

Update – He gets one receiver back which is plenty for this dreadful defense he’s taking on. He’s a play in any format in my opinion but you don’t need to go there for cash.  

RB – Derrick Henry didn’t disappoint last week with 177 total yards and a score for almost 30 DK points. The salary is deserving at this point with the most carries in the NFL and 14 receptions through four games with a total of four touchdowns. After a dud in Week 1, Henry has been above 22 DK in the rest of the season and it’s hard to project Jacksonville being the team to slow him down. You do have to give them some credit for facing the fifth-most attempts so far and yielding just 358 rushing yards to backs but they’ve also let up five touchdowns and sit just average in DVOA against the run. We need to see how the top tier of the position shakes out. If Cook and CMC are in, it becomes way more crowded and I think Henry becomes an elite GPP option. If both those players sit, Henry is likely the only back over $8,000 on DK that would carry much popularity and it becomes a much different landscape. 

WR – As of Wednesday, Julio Jones missed practice (sigh) but A.J. Brown was limited. While we don’t want to put much stock in Wednesday practice reports, Julio missed all of last week so it would have been nice to see him get back on the field. Brown seems like he has a good chance to make it back and if he has the receiving share to himself….ohhhhh baby. He would destroy this Jaguars secondary and I am 100% here for it. My early lean on the situation would be to either have Henry or AJB in my lineups for the majority of them in this spot. Julio has even up a 28.4% air yards share and an 18% target share and if that goes away, Brown would be in line to benefit. The Jags have allowed the third-most yards to receivers and AJB shouldn’t be under $7,000 if he’s alone this week 

Update – AJB is back, insert rocket ship emoji.

TE – This team was missing both of their top two receivers and no tight end exceeded five DK points. I’m not interested in Anthony Firkser and his 10.7% target share on just 49% of the snaps. 

D/ST – I’m pretty much repeating what I said last week – I’m not playing the Tennessee defense at this salary with a total of eight sacks and two takeaways all season. The Jaguars offense has not been good this year but saying the Titans have the upside to pay off a high salary doesn’t fit what we’ve seen on the field yet. 

Cash Plays – Henry, AJB

GPP Plays – Tannehill 

Jaguars 

QB – *whispers* I want to play Trevor Lawerence this week. Do not do that in cash but the Titans are sitting 25th in DVOA against the pass, have allowed the 10th most passing yards, and have an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio allowed. They just made Zach Wilson and the Jets took competent, which says a lot through the early portion of the season. Lawrence has not been great as he sits 28th in yards, 27th in RZ attempts, and 28th in QBR. However, he’s also ninth in air yards and fifth in deep ball completion rate, so he can connect deep down the field. We saw him look fairly comfortable for maybe the first time last Thursday night but this is a spot that can replicate that and Lawerence is cheap enough to take a risk on. 

RB – Hey look, James Robinson continues to be good at football! I know that Carlos Hyde was not active but J-Rob took 18 attempts and ground out 78 yards and scored twice. It was quite surprising to see him only get two targets but Jacksonville actually had a led for a large part of this game. That was something new but we’re looking at back-to-back weeks where Robinson has touched the ball at least 18 times and we should expect that trend to continue. Even Urban Meyer in all of his “wisdom” can’t shut the door on Robinson at this point. Tennessee is in the bottom-eight in DVOA against the run and I would stop short of calling Robinson a cash play just because of the Meyer factor and the risks associated with the Jaguars offense. Robinson should in theory play over 70% of the snaps and handle most of the work including a 14.3% target share. 

WR – At an early guess, Laviska Shenault could be a pretty chalky option in cash games with the loss of D.J. Chark for the season. I do get it to some extent but I will also throw a word of caution out there. Some I’ve seen are hanging on to his 13.0-yard aDOT and thinking his role has been unlocked. I would disagree because of his 95 air yards, 52 of them came in one play when Lawerence was scrambling. His other six targets have a combined 43 air yards, slightly over a 7.0 aDOT. His season number is 6.9 so don’t see what didn’t exactly happen because of one broken play. Chark still leaves a 27.5% share of the air yards and a 16.2% target share behind so there is work to go around. I’m not saying Viska is a bad play, I just don’t know if we should adjust expectations for the role on the field past extra targets. He could be moving out of the slot more as well. Jones had a rough game but still leads in RZ targets and he’ll see more work as well. This game could be a quiet shootout if Tennessee can keep up and there is no corner to worry about on the Tennessee side. 

TE – This is likely going to be my favorite cheap tight end as Dan Arnold played 32% in the Thursday night game despite not being on the team as of Monday morning. His two targets were 9% of the target share that night and he had two practices. Now he has a long week to get more of the offense under his belt and Jacksonville tight ends have a combined target share of about 26%. They are used in this offense without question. Since the Jags traded a top 10 pick to acquire Arnold, I expect him to continue to be a big part of the passing game, especially with the loss of Chark. 

D/ST – They have created one turnover all year and have just five sacks. Tennessee has allowed the most sacks in football at 17 but has also only allowed a 20.7% pressure rate. I’m not buying the Jags can get home although I suppose if the Titans are still short receivers we could revisit this as a punt. 

Cash Plays – Viska, Robinson, Jones

GPP Plays – Arnold (could be fine in cash too I think), Lawerence

Bears at Raiders, O/U of 44 (Raiders -5)

Bears 

QB – I’m almost not concerned if Andy Dalton or Justin Fields starts in this contest. The play calling was much better when Matt Nagy gave it up to Bill Lazor last week and Fields had more chances to show off his skills. That netted him under nine DK points. He only threw the ball 17 times and while the game script was a strong component in that low number, they have a solid if unspectacular defense and will want to lean on the run. Vegas is 16th in DVOA and even with some possible injuries to the secondary doesn’t exactly make me want to run to Fields. There has been a very little flash of upside to this point, even though I think he will be a very good NFL quarterback at some point. 

Update – Fields has been named the starter, which is the right move for the team. I’m still in no rush to get after him at this point. 

RB – It’s funny to me that DK made sure they priced Damien Williams close to David Montgomery in case Montgomery is out (and he is), but they left Mattison at $5,500. Assuming Williams plays in this game, he is a strong value. He will get the bulk of the work and is a capable NFL back, not to mention he was being used in the passing game as it was with 10 targets. Vegas is 18th in DVOA against the run and Williams is too cheap for the role he’ll be given. Khalil Herbert stands to get some work in this one as well but it’s much more of a question mark how much. If he gets 10-12 touches and it’s more of a split with Williams, that could be a bit interesting. We’ll monitor practice reports through the week to see where we end up here. Williams will likely be a chalky option if we don’t get a lot of running back value on the slate. 

WR – There is a small part of me that says Allen Robinson is one of the better GPP plays on the slate since he has been just a disaster to start the season. Trayvon Mullen is questionable, as is Damon Arnette. That would really thin out the corners for Vegas but there aren’t many metrics that look good for Robinson. He’s 60th in air yards, 64th in routes run, 85th in deep targets, and no higher than 55th in receptions or yards. I’m not sure they could look much worse. He only had three targets last week as well (although posting 9.3 DK on three targets is very solid). It would take some guts but at the same time, we’re not getting Robinson at $5,500 very often and Fields should have to throw more than 17 times this week. Don’t forget Darnell Mooney either since he has a 40.5% air yards share and Fields can throw a deep ball. The target share between these two are very close with Mooney edging him by just two. 

TE – The offense played a little better but Cole Kmet still only saw three targets last week and only has 15 on the season. That’s 15% which isn’t terrible but one RZ look at this point is not special, nor is sitting 26th in routes run. That’s simply not enough in a dysfunctional offense to rust and for $200 more, we can just play Arnold. 

D/ST – The Bears lead the league in sacks at 15 so right off the bat, they have to be of some small interest at just $3,200. The Raiders offensive line continues to be a little suspect as they have allowed 12 sacks on the season and the Bears have six takeaways this season as well. I don’t mind them since they sit eighth in DVOA total, but I do have some concerns against the receiving options for Vegas. If they go heavy pass in this game, the Bears force a mistake or two but are vulnerable over the top. 

Cash Plays – Williams 

GPP Plays –Mooney, A-Rob, Fields, D/ST 

Raiders

QB – The slate came out before Derek Carr had a down game and I can’t understand how a quarterback that had three straight weeks over 25 DK was listed at $6,100 on this slate. He’s second in attempts, first in deep attempts (with a developing elite deep threat), first in yards, second in air yards, and being 21st in FPPD doesn’t matter as much when you lead the league in attempts. With the exception of the Rams game, Chicago really hasn’t played a good quarterback to this juncture and Carr has higher upside than it would appear with the matchup on paper, especially at the salary. I don’t think he carries much popularity even at his very affordable salary. 

RB – Josh Jacobs didn’t do a whole lot in a dynamite spot last week but with the news Peyton Barber is out for the next few weeks with turf toe, Jacobs will see all the touches he can handle in this spot. Chicago has been stout against the run so far, sitting 12th in DVOA and allowing 397 yards on the ground. It was interesting to see Detroit gain some solid yards this past week and the Bears aren’t so good that you run away from this spot. The main issue with Jacobs is he’s mostly touchdown or bust. Sure, he had five receptions on Monday but that is beyond a rarity for him and even then…he didn’t exceed 10.7 DK points. If we’re playing a back that has low receiving upside and needs to score to pay off, I’m just playing Damien Harris in the much superior game script and for $400 less. 

Update – Aikem Hicks is out and he’s been one of the better run stoppers in football. That’s a solid boost for Jacobs.

WR – We’re going to talk about the target share in the past three weeks here in a minute, but we can look at both Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow as plays in this offense. If the alignments hold true, Ruggs could find himself on Kindle Vildor and he will victimize him for a long touchdown if that happens. Ruggs has elite speed in the NFL and even with a target share of just 15.5%, his aDOT is 17.8 yards. Vildor is giving up speed and he’s 121st in the league with a 17.6 YPR. All it will take is one time. 

Renfrow continues to roll in the slot over 57% of the time so far and that would leave him away from Jaylon Johnson and facing a lot of Duke Shelley. He’s only been targeted nine times but he’s allowed seven receptions and Renfrow is an important part of this offense. Let’s discuss what it’s looked like lately. 

TE – Is Darren Waller an awesome football player? You better believe it. Am I going to shell out $7,300 for him in this spot? Well…that’s a much more murky answer. Since his explosion in Week 1 on Monday Night Football, he has seen just seven targets in each of the next three games. That’s great, and Waller is first across the board among tight ends in routes, targets, target share, receptions, air yards, and he’s third in points per game. I’m just not sure I feel the need to spend up in this particular spot and if we have strong top-tier running back plays, that makes it even harder to justify. Believe me when I say it doesn’t hold a lot of weight based on who Chicago has played, but they have allowed just the seventh-fewest yards to tight ends. My only point is that since Week 1, Waller has a 19.3% target share and that’s the exact same as Renfrow and only one target ahead of Ruggs. Waller easily leads in RZ targets with four, but his price reflects he’s the clear alpha in the passing game and that hasn’t been the case for three of four games. 

D/ST – It seems like every time I watch the Raiders, they have a strong pass rush and they do have nine sacks. Chicago has given up 16 sacks already and has four turnovers so this really isn’t the worst mix ever. Vegas is just 16th in DVOA so they aren’t bottom of the barrel and even though they have issues, the sacks can lead to turnovers and they’re under $3,000. Let’s see who starts at quarterback. 

Cash Plays – Waller, Renfrow 

GPP Plays – Ruggs, Carr, D/ST 

Browns at Chargers, O/U of 46.5 (Chargers -2)

Browns 

QB – Past the fact he can’t hit open receivers, Baker Mayfield is 24th in RZ attempts, 26th in attempts, 22nd in yards, and 22nd in FPPD. The Browns are in the bottom five in attempts total and even when you try to point towards Baker is fourth in deep ball attempts, he’s 27th in deep-ball completion rate at just 28.6%. Perhaps the Chargers can force the Browns offense off-script but they are fourth in DVOA against the pass and Baker looks very unappealing all the way around. 

RB – It seems crazy to say (and maybe changes when Jarvis Landry comes back) but Kareem Hunt sure seems to be the safer option of Hunt or Nick Chubb. Hunt has 11 targets over the past two games and his target share is up to 13.6% while he’s trailing 69-43 in carries. Chubb is certainly the preferred option in the RZ by carries at a 16-8 edge, but it’s interesting to note that when the offense moves to inside the five-yard line, it’s only a 4-3 split for Chubb. That kind of continues to be an issue because Chubb has now gone scoreless since Week 2 and even with a touchdown, he’s been over 17 DK points just once this season. The Chargers have been a run funnel so far for the most part and still rank 25th in DVOA against the run. Just know that the Browns are not going to stop using a split backfield anytime soon. Since Chubb only has four targets on the season and is more expensive, Hunt continues to make more sense at the salary in my eyes. 

WR – I’m still not over the Odell Beckham game because it should have been massive. Beckham was open all game long and Baker just couldn’t get the job done. Since he has come back, Beckham has owned a 26.7% target share and a massive 47% air yards share. However, I’m not as keen on him this week with the secondary that the Chargers boast. They have corners like Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. along with a safety like Derwin James. Chris Harris could be back as well which would be a big boost. With so many options to take away the clear-cut number one, I’ll pass on Beckham this week. The matchups are just the polar opposite. 

TE – Austin Hooper is a fine option but it’s hard to get excited about much more than that. Baker had a terrible game on Sunday and Hooper suffered as well, with just one catch on five targets. Hooper is up to a 14.8% target share but is a whopping 37th in routes run. The positive spin to that is he’s fourth in target rate at 31.4% but this also isn’t exactly the leading passing offense in the league. Hooper is just 21st in receptions so even though some metrics look great, it’s more because of the low volume of the passing game in general as Cleveland is 28th in attempts per game. 

D/ST – The Browns are very cheap for what they have put on the field so far, ranking third in total DVOA, are fourth in pressure rate, have 14 sacks, and three turnovers. Now, the turnovers aren’t great but everything else is. The issue is the Chargers have only given up seven sacks on the season and have just four giveaways. I don’t love going against this skilled of an offense, but Cleveland is playing well and should still be over $3,000. 

Cash Plays – Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, OBJ, Hooper, D/ST 

Chargers 

QB – I was a little surprised to see Justin Herbert as only the QB14 on the year because it seems like he’s been so much better than that. Herbert is fourth in attempts, second in RZ attempts, eighth in yards, but he’s only 19th in FPPD. Perhaps it’s been more the eye test because Herbert is second in catchable pass rate and while this isn’t the easiest matchup ever, Cleveland is just 13th in DVOA against the pass. It’s a difficult offense to contain and as long as he’s under $7,000, I’m on board. The only small nitpick is there’s no rushing potential and when you get to this salary, you need the 300-yard bonus or three touchdowns to be very happy. 

RB – Austin Ekeler is coming off a monster game against the Raiders with two scores and well over 140 scrimmage yards. Cleveland has been good against the run at fourth in DVOA and allowing just the fifth-fewest rushing yards to the position. Having said that, Ekeler is attached to a great offense and has dual-threat chops as one of the better receiving backs in the league. I will never tell you don’t play him, even if we likely have much higher priorities in cash games this week. 

WR – This should be a fun matchup in real football as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams look to bounce back from a terrible game each on Monday night. Williams would stand to get more of Denzel Ward who has allowed 14 receptions on 21 targets this year for a 1.80 FPPT and Allen will face a lot of the slot corner in Troy Hill. He’s only been targeted six times so far and is under 40 yards allowed. Allen has the clear target lead at 44-35 but Williams has the edge in aDOT at 10.2 against 8.4 and has more EZ targets at 5-3. Allen is still getting heavily targeted in the RZ as well though with eight so for right now, I’ll generally play the cheaper player. That’s Allen by a good bit and he avoids Ward more so it’s a relatively easy call. 

TE – I didn’t expect to see Jared Cook at 10th in receptions, 11th in yards, and eighth in routes run at this point of the season. he’s seen at least five targets in three of four games and should have had at least 50 yards or a touchdown in three of four as well, if not for a weird penalty in the Dallas game. Sitting third in targets in a Herbert-led offense is not a bad thing and Cook’s scary remains super reasonable. With so much focus on stopping the other components of this offense, Cook has had some strong opportunities and he’s third in both RZ and EZ targets on the season. For this salary, that is more than acceptable and the floor is about as stable as we can get. 

D/ST – I honestly can’t get there. The Browns might be the last team I’d want to face when you can’t stop the run and even though LA had some success against the Raiders, this is not the same style of the run game. Cleveland is going to punt them into submission and I don’t believe they let Baker screw his one up. The Chargers also only have three turnovers forced and have just nine sacks. 

Cash Plays – Ekeler, Allen, Herbert 

GPP Plays – Williams, Cook 

49ers at Cardinals, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -5.5)

49ers 

QB – If Trey Lance starts this week, you just lock him into cash and you build from there. Listen, he’s going to make mistakes and likely turn the ball over once or twice, and he may not be the most efficient quarterback ever in this game. Arizona is third in DVOA and has only allowed 955 yards through the air. You know what? Almost none of that matters. Lance rushed for 41 yards and a two-point conversion in just one half of football last week. His legs are an absolute difference-maker and he’s a threat to record a 100-yard rushing game. Whatever passing production you get from that point on is gravy. Even if you go conservative and say he only passes for 200 yards and one score, that’s 12 DK. Count in two turnovers and that knocks him down to 10 DK points. If he rushes for just 50 yards, you’re right around 15 DK which is plenty at the salary in cash games. The ceiling is wildly higher than that in a shootout script and I would be overweight in GPP almost certainly this week. 

Update – Lance is going to start but I’m going to backtrack my stance in being overweight in GPP. I allowed myself to get a little giddy because I’ve loved Lance and the fit in San Francisco since draft night. He looked a little rough and while I am more than comfortable to play him in cash, I’ll go with others in GPP in case he just scores 15-18 DK.

RB – Trey Sermon started to look a lot better this week and rolled up 89 yards rushing but I can’t help but think Elijah Mitchell is still the man in this backfield when he’s healthy. The team released backs from the practice squad which makes you think Mitchell is coming back. Whoever is the back gets a nice boost if Lance starts because all the RPO action in this offense is so much more effective than it is when Jimmy G is starting. Arizona is just 16th in DVOA against the run and the 49ers run game could really turn lethal with Lance. Let’s see if Mitchell can make it back for this one. 

WR – I looked like Brandon Aiyuk turned the corner in Week 3 and played over 80% of the snaps but he fell under 70% in Week 4 and only saw three targets. He only has 11 on the season and six came in one single game. He saw Deebo Samuel dominate again with a 30.7% target share and a 34.2% air yards share. Even if Lance is the starter, this offense knows how to get the ball in Deebo’s hands and I wouldn’t be that worried. Samuel is ninth in air yards share and sixth in target rate across all receivers, along with leading the league in yards. He’s accurately priced and mostly keeps to the outside, where he should find Byron Murphy. He has only allowed 13 receptions on 26 targets for a 89.4 passer rating, but the YPR is also 16.7. Deebo should be able to get behind the defense at least once or twice in this one and is very stackable. 

Update – Murphy is out for the Cardinals, which is a solid boost for Deebo and the passing game.

TE – It hasn’t fully translated but George Kittle is at least getting targets, with 20 over the past two weeks. It seems that game script has plenty to do with that because both those games have been losses and Kittle still isn’t inside the top 10 in routes run. He’s yet to find the paint but is fifth in receptions and fourth in yards in parts because his target rate is 29.6%. Even with the questionable quarterback play, Kittle is under $6,000 and the 49ers almost surely have to put up some points in this game. He still has zero RZ targets and that can only go on for so long. 

Update – Kittle is now listed as doubtful, which is less than ideal for Lance as well. Ross Dwelley is the backup but I’m playing Darnold for $200 more.

D/ST – I will not play defenses against the Cardinals until further notice. 

Cash Plays – Lance, Mitchell, Deebo

GPP Plays – Sermon

Cardinals 

QB – The 49ers are 18th in DVOA against the pass and have given up seven touchdowns to just one interception so far. Kyler Murray is the front runner for MVP at this point at the sportsbooks and is third in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in FPPD, and is top five among quarterbacks in rushing stats that matter. With no Mahomes on the slate, he’s the easy spend-up if you go that route and remains one of the safer options among all fantasy players. 

RB – Chase Edmonds always looks so appealing to play and there is some truth to it since he sits third in targets among all players on the Cardinals. He’s tied for third in targets among all running backs, which is a very valuable role when playing for one of the best offenses in football. What can be hard to square up is the fact that James Conner is seventh among backs in RZ carries at 14 and he’s cashed in the past two weeks with a total of four touchdowns. There are two factors to look at before getting excited for Conner in my eyes. The first is he’s had 34 of his 53 carries in the two games that have been blowouts. That suggests you better nail the game script because in the other two games that were more competitive, he only had a total of 20 touches and he’s wildly expensive for that. Second, living on two touchdown games at $5,600 seems awfully dangerous. I don’t think you should be running to play either exactly, but I’m taking Edmonds at the salaries and at least getting some style of floor. Edmonds has yet to score but has not dipped below 12.5 DK points. 

Update – Edmonds is questionable and if he’s out, Conner becomes a strong value.

WR – I’m not sure there is a more tilting receiving corps to figure out than this one. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and even Rondale Moore all have at least 18 targets this year. Oh, and then you have Edmonds and we still have a tight end to go. When we play this game for just one week, that is really not what we want to hear. With Hopkins priced like a WR1, I can’t justify paying for him right now with just a 19.4% target share and an air yards share of 26.1%. Let’s be honest, why do that when Green and Kirk have almost the exact same metrics? Green and Kirk move around as well with Kirk in the slot about half the time and Green in there over 20%. That means the matchups aren’t set in stone but if K’Waun Williams is out, Green could see a bunch of Dre Kirkpatrick. That would be an advantage for Green and Kirk would square off against Deommodore Lenoir to some extent. It’s still tough to worry about individual matchups when they move around so much. Given the salaries, I’d play Green ahead of Kirk and Hopkins would be third. I would go Justin Jefferson for $100 more almost every time. 

Update – Williams is out for the 49ers.

TE – Maxx Williams is in the same conversation as the rest of the pass-catchers in that his 12.4% target share looks relatively appealing, as does the 12th most receptions and yards. However, he only has one RZ target and the Cards with Kyler are spreading the ball around to everyone. No player is taking control of the passing game, which means it’s playing roulette trying to figure out who will have the big game this week. Williams is only 28th in routes run, which means he’s not available a whole lot but he is making the most of his chances at a 25.4% target rate. He’s very volatile and you need to look no further than Week 3 to see where the floor is with under five DK points on just three targets. 

D/ST – I actually would get this play. Even if Lance starts, he made some pretty tough plays that could have resulted in turnovers. The Cards are living on turnovers with nine forced because after Week 1, they haven’t got to the quarterback hardly at all. Arizona is sixth in total DVOA and the quarterback situation is in flux for the 49ers. I still prefer Minnesota but the Cards could get a pick-six relatively easily in this spot. 

Cash Plays – Kyler 

GPP Plays – Edmonds, Green, Kirk, Nuk, Williams 

Giants at Cowboys, O/U 52.5 (Cowboys -7)

Giants 

QB – Daniel Jones is…playing well? That seems like something that is wrong but he’s honestly been fairly solid as he’s seventh in yards, 10th in yards per attempt, 10th in FPPD, sixth in points per game, and he’s added the third-most rushing yards among quarterbacks as well. On top of all of that, he has committed only two turnovers which have always been a large issue. Now, there are warning signs like he’s only thrown four touchdowns to 10 passes that could have been intercepted and he’s still 26th in completion rate when pressured, so he’s been lucky. Dallas leads the league in takeaways so this could be a spot where things level out for Jones and I’m not willing to play him on the road. 

RB – It was a little bit surprising to see Saquon Barkley only record 18 touches last week with the Giants missing multiple key players on their offense. He made it work with a total of 126 scrimmage yards and two scores and really, that’s why you play him for. We don’t want Saquon to just get 20-22 carries up the gut, just like we talked about with Kamara. You have to let Saquon do work in space in the passing game and he has 11 receptions in the past two games combined. Dallas has been excellent on the ground with just 218 yards rushing allowed and they sit in the top half of the league in DVOA against the run. However, they struggle defending backs in the passing game. They have allowed the third-most yards and the most receptions, including 5/48 to some dude named Rodney Smith who was on the practice squad for the Panthers last week before Sunday. Saquon is back as a home run threat on the ground and he could come close to 2x on receiving work alone. 

WR – This section will need an update. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed practice on Wednesday, which would open up some potential for Kadarius Toney and maybe even John Ross. Toney would be the higher priority with a snap rate of almost 78% and he led the team in targets with nine. He actually looked strong with the ball in his hands and was a strong complement to Kenny Golladay. He would face off against Trevon Diggs but we saw last week Diggs is not a true shut down corner quite yet. I’d be much more inclined to play both players if we’re still missing Slayton and Shepard this week. 

Update – Toney and Ross are much more viable as Shepard and Slayton remain out. With Golladay getting Diggs, Toney and Ross are far easier plays. I don’t fully expect Golladay to get stonewalled, but Toney especially is interesting to me. He has been talked up all week by the coaching staff and they said he needs the ball more even when injuries are not a concern any longer.

TE – The good news is in his two games back from injury, Evan Engram has been targeted 12 times and he’s run 55 routes. The bad news is he’s turned seven receptions into just 48 yards, which is not super appealing with just one RZ target. If Shepard and Slayton make it back and Toney remains involved, it’s hard to have any confidence in this pick and we can find other directions. 

D/ST – The Cowboys have multiple ways to beat you, have only given up six sacks, only have three giveaways, and the Giants are sitting 27th in total DVOA. I can’t build the case here. 

Cash Plays – Saquon, Toney, Jones

GPP Plays – Ross, Engram

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott has been a little hard to peg so far this year, at least fantasy-wise. He’s playing what is likely his best football ever with a passer rating of 116.9 and a completion rate over 75% but he hasn’t had to put the gas pedal to the floor past Week 1. Dak has not thrown more than 27 passes in the past three weeks and he’s sort of living on touchdowns with seven in the past two games. He’s only 20th in attempts and 13th in FPPD, not exactly the greatest marriage for fantasy purposes. New York is just 24th against the pass but Dallas has shown they will beat you in whichever way you prefer. The past three weeks it’s been more on the ground and if Dallas gets out in front with a much better than expected defense, Dak could sit under 30 attempts again. 

RB – I’ve been stumping for Ezekiel Elliott the past couple of weeks and the man has paid off with 17+ DK in three weeks straight and is suddenly fourth in the league in rushing yards, tied for the running back lead in rushing touchdowns, and is handling 61% of the running back attempts on the season. He’s also sixth in attempts so that helps mitigate the fact he only has 11 targets on the season. The Giants are ninth in yards allowed to backs this year and sit in the bottom 12 in DVOA. Now, you can argue that he’s no different than Chubb for Cleveland and you’re not far off. However, he is more involved in the passing game and his RZ attempt lead is 15-5, larger than Chubb as well. For whatever reason, I feel far better playing Zeke than I do Chubb. 

WR – Maybe the field is freaked out over the last couple of weeks for CeeDee Lamb considering he hasn’t recorded more than 9.5 DK in the past two weeks on a combined nine targets. However, the last two games weren’t the most competitive and this one could be with more attempts coming from Dallas. Lamb is just 41st in routes, 24th in receptions, 44th in yards per reception, and 22nd in yards. That is far from ideal but it’s really not in the best interest of Dallas to let Lamb and Amari Cooper not be involved for much longer like this. Lamb has only played in the slot 22% of the time and he would likely face Adoree’ Jackson but he’s only allowed a 1.16 FPPT so far. James Bradberry has not fared well this year with a 2.24 FPPT and a 131.8 passer rating. My only hesitation with Cooper is the hammy injury that bugged him last week but let’s see how that goes the rest of the week. 

Update – Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out, boosting the passing game for the Cowboys.

TE – The injury to Gallup duly noted, Dalton Schultz has been quite good for Dallas and fantasy so far. He has a 17.6% target share on the season and is tied for second in RZ targets with three. Some of his metrics look a little questionable as he’s only 26th in routes run and only has one deep target, but the 34.8% target rate is third among tight ends and he’s inside the top six in receptions, yards, touchdowns, YAC, and points per game. That’s an awful lot and you wonder if, in his third season, things are just clicking a little bit more for Schultz. He’s on the field for over 72% of the snaps and that’s never a bad thing and the salary is more than acceptable. If you don’t like Gesicki, Schultz is right there and the Giants already lead the league in touchdowns allowed against tight ends. 

D/ST – It needs to be noted that the Giants only have three turnovers on the season, a large shift for that offense. Still, Dallas is second in takeaways despite a pressure rate of just 22.2%. Daniel Jones has only taken eight sacks and has a pressure rate of just 21%, neither of which is all that bad. THey’re cheap and I’m fine with it and Dallas is 10th in DVOA on the young season. 

Cash Plays – Zeke

GPP Plays – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz 

Cash Core 4

Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, Trey Lance, Alexander Mattison

Note – I’m planning on Cook not playing. If Dalvin Cook is ACTIVE, Damien Williams slides in over Mattison.

GPP Core 4 

Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Kadarius Toney, Ezekiel Elliott

Stacks

Bengals/Packers – Burrow, Higgins, Chase, Boyd – Run Backs – Adams, Cobb, Jones, Rodgers

Titans/Jaguars – Henry, Brown, Tannehill – Run Backs – Lawerence (QB of choice), Jones, Arnold, Viska, J-Rob

Giants/Cowboys – Toney, Saquon, Jones, Golladay, Ross – Run Backs – Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz, Dak

Eagles/Panthers – Moore, Anderson, Darnold, possibly Chubba – Run Backs – Smith, Hurts, Ertz, Gainwell

49ers/Cardinals – Kyler, Conner if Edmonds is out, Green, Kirk, Nuk –Run Backs – Lance, Deebo, Mitchell

Vikings/Lions – Jefferson, Thielen, RB, Cousins Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson if active

Bucs/Dolphins – Brady, Godwin, AB, Fournette, Evans – Run Backs – Gesicki, Waddle, Parker

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

We are back in action for Week 4 and hopefully, you were able to survive in cash despite the Justin Fields grenade. It wasn’t easy but it was possible and part of that was the ability to late swap to Alexander Mattison. Always remember to leave your later player in the flex spot to give yourself the best chance! Let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and figure out what paths to take for the green screens this week! 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

Texans at Bills, O/U of 47 (Bills -16)

Texans 

QB – I didn’t think Davis Mills played that terrible on Thursday night but that only resulted in 10.7 DK points and this spot is no fun. Buffalo is second in DVOA in total and against the pass so even with a significantly negative game script, I just can’t see going here on a full slate. Mills has one talented receiver and that’s about it. I get that $4,900 is tempting but there’s very little trust there 

RB – We say all the time to not play Houston running backs and that remains the case. Buffalo has been a very difficult defense to play against and we’re still seeing a split backfield. Mark Ingram leads with 46 carries but don’t forget, he had 28 in Week 1. Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson have combined for 31 carries while no back has a target share over 6.9%. On a full slate, playing a back with no passing game upside as 17 point underdogs doesn’t seem to be the best path to take. 

WR – I’m not willing to go back to the Anthony Miller since it’s not a showdown slate so the only player worth considering is Brandin Cooks. The man is just unstoppable no matter who the quarterback is this season or any other season. He has the number one air yards share in the NFL at 57.8%, he’s third in receptions, third in yards, and second in yard per route. He’s been one of the most underrated receivers for years and is well worth the price. I will say that he will likely see plenty of Tre White who has only allowed a 1.3 FPP and a passer rating of just 77.8. I don’t exactly worry about it because the Texans don’t have many other reliable options. Cooks will see his targets no matter what. 

Update – I would still only play Cooks but the Buffalo secondary isn’t super healthy. Safety Jordan Poyer is out and corner Taron Johnson is questionable but was a DNP Thursday and Friday. Life could be worse for Cooks and his massive target share.

TE – With both Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown playing over 60% of the snaps and splitting 15 targets so far, we can’t use either. They are very cheap but we do have a punt special later on that I would “trust” more and I’m not going with a rookie quarterback in Buffalo and splitting work. 

D/ST – I will not be playing a defense that is basically a 17 point underdog. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Cooks 

Bills 

QB – Our man Jared has been on this as well, but we knew the big game was coming and he blew up this past week. Allen is fourth in attempts, fifth in air yards, third in RZ attempts, and third in deep attempts all while sitting first in RZ rush attempts as well. He’s kicked in 88 rushing yards and Houston being a surprising seventh in DVOA against the pass makes no never mind to me. They have allowed the 10th most passing yards with a 4:4 TD:INT ratio but Allen with a full complement of weapons is too much to ignore. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him very low in popularity since he sits right between Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, who is in the game of the week most likely. 

RB – Zack Moss will get the attention from the Buffalo backfield but I remain a little bit skeptical. I grant you that Moss played a lot more snaps this week but the carries were still close with Moss holding a 13-11 edge there and a 3-2 edge in targets. However, just last week he didn’t see a 30% snap share and was inactive Week 1. Now, perhaps Moss got the message and has just simply raised his level of play and will continue to get over 15 touches in a high-powered offense. If that’s the case, he’s too cheap. However, Devin Singletary still had a lot of touches as well and if Moss doesn’t get a touchdown, you’re talking about 10 DK. A split backfield is going to be volatile to predict week to week and this game projects to get out of hand fast. 

WR – Stefon Diggs hasn’t had one of those games so far, but all the metrics point to it happening soon. Houston got smoked by D.J. Moore last week and this could be the week for Diggs. He’s first in air yards, eighth in air yards share, third in deep targets, and second in unrealized air yards at 271. In fairness to Diggs, only 68.8% of his targets have been catchable and if you play a lot in GPP, you have to keep going to the well. 

Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley could be a little popular, but just remember their production is coming while Diggs is not having great games yet. I certainly prefer Sanders since he’s still just $4,900 and has the more explosive role in the offense. He’s 15th in routes run and eighth in air yards, which makes his production volatile but the price is certainly right. Beasley is far more the cash-style play, living in the slot and having a 5.6 aDOT. He’s the safety valve in the offense along with the tight ends and backs and with the Bills being a top-five passing offense in volume, the work is certainly there week-to-week. Houston could also be without corner Terrance Mitchell and safety Justin Reid, which would just raise the ceiling of everyone involved. 

TE – Could we be seeing a mini breakout for Dawson Knox? It’s not impossible and he’s actually exceeded eight DK points in each contest so far. Carving out a 9.9% target share in this offense isn’t all that bad and it’s not like he’s seeing any type of special coverage with the other weapons around him. Knox is 11th in routes run and has 10 receptions already. I’m not trying to confuse him with reliable, but he’s also the TE8 right now and he’s barely over $3,500. Houston has also allowed the third-most receptions to the position thus far despite not playing one of the elite options in the league. 

D/ST – If I wanted to afford them, it would be great. Buffalo has generated six takeaways, nine sacks, and the second-most pressures in football. Compound that with seeing Houston give up over a 25% pressure rate and it’s a dynamite spot. The price tag will keep me out of the running for Buffalo’s defense on this slate as a rarely pay-up, even more so for the top salary. 

Cash Plays – Allen, Beasley, Knox

GPP Plays – Diggs, Sanders, Moss, D/ST 

Lions at Bears, O/U of 42 (Bears -3)

Lions

QB – Jared Goff came back down to Earth a little last week and that’s not the largest surprise ever. It says quite a bit that he’s sixth in attempts but 13th in yards and 26th in air yards. That’s not exactly what we’re looking for and he’s 25th in FPDB. Now we add the fact that Chicago is ninth in DVOA against the pass and is 13th in passing yards allowed. Past the matchup with the Rams, the Bears have only allowed two other passing touchdowns. It’s one thing to be interested in a couple of the skill players on the offense, but Goff is more than likely to end up around 16 DK points than anything else. 

RB – We’re three weeks into the season and I’m here to publicly apologize to D’Andre Swift. Before the season started, I wanted nothing to do with him and thought he’d be a huge bust at his ADP. I couldn’t have been more off base. Even though three weeks, I’ve played him one time I believe. That streak ends this week. The snaps and carries might be closer than we want with Jamaal Williams at 33-28 and Williams still sees the field at a 40% clip but Swift has eight RZ rushes and is second among running backs with 24 total targets. Only Najee Harris from Pittsburgh is higher and that’s only because he recorded 19 last week. Swift recorded 21 touches last week and turned them into 23.7 DK points. Snap rate doesn’t matter if you’re getting that many touches and lead your team in target share at 21%. The Bears have uncharacteristically allowed over 300 rushing yards to backs already and Swift is underpriced on DK where the scoring is full PPR. 

WR – The only two that we can look at here are Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond and I’m not sure that says a whole lot. Both players are under a 14% target share on the season and have three RZ targets combined. There’s a reason Swift has so many targets (outside of his talent) and neither player is over 136 receiving yards. I don’t believe Chicago feels the need to shadow with Jaylon Johnson but Cephus has only been in the slot about 7% of the time so he likely draws the brunt of Johnson. He’s only allowed six receptions on 16 targets and a 0.87 FPPT through three games and I’m not messing with that. Raymond has been in the slot about 25% of the time and would draw the much softer coverage. He’s cheap enough to consider for GPP but nothing more. 

TE – I did not expect that style of game from T.J. Hockenson as he was only targeted two times and managed 10 yards. He is still second in routes among tight ends, fifth in snaps, sixth in air yards and sixth in target share at 17.8%. Additionally, even after a dud, he’s third in receptions and sixth yards at the position. All of this is to say that bad games are going to happen but you shouldn’t view Hock any differently. The Bears have yet to allow 100 total yards to the position and it’s not the greatest matchup. I’ll likely go elsewhere but it has little to do with last week. 

D/ST – I honestly don’t hate this punt. Look, Detroit is not a good defense by about any measure. They have the sixth-fewest pressures but they do have eight sacks and we’ve outlined plenty of times the issues along the offensive line for Chicago and the offense in general. Last week saw Fields under pressure over 50% of the time. The three turnovers are nothing special but at such a low salary, we could do worse and just hope they get us 5-6 points. 

Cash Plays – Swift, Hockenson, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Raymond, Goff 

Bears 

QB – Just run away. Coach Matt Nagy has said that all three players are under consideration to start and I will have nothing to do with this circus act. I’m not here to tell you Justin Fields played well last week, but I’m not sure what you expect when your quarterback is getting pressured 55% of the time and no adjustments are made through the game. Detroit is not a good defense, but Nagy is not a good coach. If Andy Dalton plays, I could potentially get on board but it’s not a fun idea. 

Update – The starter will be a game time decision and I stand firm in the fact I don’t want to go here, but if Dalton starts I would be more inclined to play Monty or A-Rob in GPP. The industry (understandably) wants nothing to do with this offense so a player like Monty could wind up being a super strong GPP play.

RB – The theme with Chicago is going to continue because I just can’t possibly trust Matt Nagy’s “offense”. When it gets ripped to shreds by an ex-player (Dan Orlovsky) who was on an 0-16 NFL team as the worst game plan he’s ever seen, I’m paying attention. David Montgomery is the workhorse in this offense but after a strong start to the campaign, he’s not been over 11 DK points in part due to the dysfunction of the Bears all around. In theory, a player like Fields should have helped open up running lanes for Monty and made life easier. In reality, Nagy had the offense run five-man protections on the majority of their dropbacks and Cleveland feasted. This would check the box as a get-right spot because the Lions’ defense is not good but even a $5,800, Montgomery is only GPP for me and I would find the extra $400 for Swift on the other side of the game. 

WR – You know another way I can tell that a coach isn’t doing his job? Allen Robinson has 10 receptions for 86 yards TOTAL through three games. That is beyond egregious. He’s almost never below $6,000 and it’s hard to pass that price but my goodness is the trust level low. A-Rob is 63rd in air yards, 80th in yards per route, and 95th in yards per target. The plus side is he does still have a 25.3% target share and he has four RZ targets as well. With Detroit missing their top two corners right now, this should be a cakewalk matchup for Robinson. I can’t mess with Darnell Mooney with the offense in tatters, as it can’t even support Robinson at this juncture. 

TE – I remain steadfast that I’m not playing Bears right now, including Cole Kmet unless Andy Dalton is back. Dalton targets him seven times in Week 1 but overall, Kmet is 22nd in routes, 33rd in yards, and 12th in target share. There’s not a lot of meat on the bone, even in a great matchup. Detroit has allowed the third-most yards against the position so maybe you could twist my arm with Dalton. 

D/ST – Slightly expensive but they do at least have nine sacks and four turnovers on the season, and Detroit is allowing a 21.6% pressure rate on Goff. We know he can make mistakes in a hurry if the opposition gets home, so the potential for a defensive score is there. 

Cash Plays – D/ST

GPP Plays – Monty, A-Rob

Titans at Jets, O/U of 44 (Titans -7)

Titans 

QB – I’m not likely to go with the passing game on this team but Ryan Tannehill is far from a bad play. It has been a disappointing start for him to a large extent, sitting 20th in pass yards, 14th in air yards, and 23rd in FPDB. However, he is seventh in RZ attempts to this point of the year and still threw three touchdowns last week even though he lost one of his receivers very early. We’ve talked about the Jets being better than we thought as they only rank 18thin DVOA against the pass. They have also only allowed 700 passing yards so the metrics don’t say it’s a crazy good spot for Tannehill, but he’s still solid. 

RB – So this is just a total smash spot for Derrick Henry, who has more receptions than Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott coming into the week. That is NOT a sentence I figured on typing in Week 4 but that’s the reality. There’s now a bit more of a floor to Henry with a new offensive coordinator and the Titans could be without receiver A.J. Brown this week as well. The Jets are averaging almost 100 yards per game allowed on the ground so far and have allowed four rushing scores. I will say that’s not as bad as the Jets were pegged coming into the season and the 13th ranked DVOA against the run is stronger than we thought as well. Henry is still virtually assured 25-28 touches with a ceiling for more and there is even more safety than ever before with a small receiving floor. If the Tennessee defense forces a turnover or two, we could see Henry hit the paint three times this week. 

WR – We need to circle back at the end of the week. A.J. Brown is almost certain to miss this week but Julio Jones is in some danger of missing as well as he nurses a leg injury. If they are both out, we can turn to Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as potential salary savers. We do need to know the status of Brown and Julio and realistically, that just means Henry is getting 40 touches. 

Update – Goodness, the receiver room is hurt. Brown and Julio are both out, so now we can look at the pivots. For me, last week is what I want to take a look at. Brown was down early at 11% of the snaps and Julio only played 50% so I think that’s probably the best sample to all about. Westbrook-Ikhine led in snaps at 77.9% and had four targets while Chester Rogers played 41% and had two targets. The former also led in RZ targets at 2-1 and went 4/53/1 so I think he is the man we want in this situation. He would likely see some of Bryce Hall who has allowed a 1.63 FPPT through six targets. As much as Henry will carry this offense, they have to pass the ball a little bit and the savings make him less of a risk with plenty of upside. The Jets are also without safety Marcus Maye so their defense will suffer there as well.

TE – There is no right end worth fantasy consideration since even with Brown out most of last week, nobody stepped up in the passing game.

D/ST – To paraphrase what I told Brian and Ghost in our chat, I wouldn’t pay $3,900 for the Titans if they played Western San Jose State School of Agriculture and Technology. I’m aware of the Jets’ offensive issues and the fact they’ve allowed the most sacks on the year but the salary is a non-starter for me. If they were $2,900, they’d be my favorite defense. 

Update – Bud Dupree is out and that’s a big component to the pass rush, so it should in theory help the Jets.

Cash Plays – Henry, Westbrook-Ikhine

GPP Plays – Rogers

Jets 

QB – It’s only Week 4 but Zach Wilson is ranked 35th in FPDB. There are only 32 franchises in the NFL. He’s only thrown a catchable pass 45.7% of the time and is sitting 31st in true completion rate and is only 15th in attempts. The volume can’t make up for the horrid inefficiency so even though Tennessee is only 22nd in DVOA against the pass, I’m not ready to take the chance here. He could straight up kill your entire lineup. 

RB – If there was a time to try and play a Jets running back, it could be against the Titans and their 29th ranked DVOA against the run. I’m not saying I want to, but Michael Carter appears to be taking over with back-to-back weeks of double-digit touches. Carter had 11 and nine carries in the past two weeks, easily the most of any Jets back. There hasn’t been much production to speak of but the Patriots and Broncos defense are both worlds better than the Titans unit. Even against New England, Carter was able to generate 5.4 yards per carry so while it’s a thin play, I could see it. You’re just banking on Tennessee being that bad on the defensive side of the ball. There’s not a ton of cheap backs that I love so Carter would certainly make the GPP pool in lineups that I’m spending on the studs.

WR – Somebody say something about a Corey Davis revenge game? Kidding aside, Davis leads the Jets with 22 targets and has two EZ targets in the early season. The road has been tough the past two weeks but in honesty, the defenses faced have to be noted here. The Jets have faced three of the top eight defenses in total DVOAs so far and Davis paid off in Week 1 with two touchdowns. Now they finally get some relief as the Titans have allowed the third-most yards to receivers and six touchdowns, tied for the second-most. Janoris Jenkins and Kristian Fulton have both allowed at least a 1.42 FPPT and Jenkins especially has been terrible with an 80% catch rate and 117 passer rating allowed. If Jamison Crowder makes it back, you could potentially go that route since he should roll into the slot and make life easier on Wilson. There is a reason Braxton Berrios is right behind Davis in targets and has a 72.4% slot rate. We’ll see who’s healthy come Friday with Crowder and Elijah Moore both questionable. 

Update – Moore is out and Crowder looks like he’ll make his season debut, which makes him a fine GPP target but I’d be a little loathe to play him in cash.

TE – The only chance I will even consider this is if Tyler Kroft misses the game. Perhaps in that scenario, Ryan Griffin enters the fray, but if they are both active they just bit into the meager production they do have. 

D/ST – Derrick Henry might run for 400 yards, but if Brown and Julio are both out, you can make the case to punt. The Jets are 16th in DVOA overall and have six sacks. They do only have two turnovers but the price is still appealing. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Davis, Carter, Crowder

Chiefs at Eagles, O/U of 54 (Chiefs -7)

Chiefs 

QB – Philly is actually 13th in DVOA against the pass, which is strong for them in recent years but I’m not sweating that in the least with Patrick Mahomes. He has the second-most passing touchdowns, sits third in deep attempts, sixth in yards, and that’s all on just the 11th most attempts so far. When the only bad thing I can say about him is he’s thrown an interception per game, we’re pretty set. I believe he and one of his receiving options is one of the better stacking options on the entire slate, but we’ll get there. 

RB – Well, it looks like we’re back for another ride on the Clyde Edwards-Helaire Experience. After being very popular last week at $4,800 and scoring 20 DK, I would imagine the field will go right back to the well since he’s only $5,400 this week. Over the past couple of seasons, Philly has normally been a defense we avoided with running backs but not this year. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs and sit 22nd in DVOA. I sure wish CEH was getting more targets (only five on the entire season) but he still touched the ball 19 times last week. At that salary, it’s hard to turn away and he was actually chunking yards for the first time all year at a 5.9 YPC. This game is tied for the highest O/U and the Chiefs are seven-point favorites, even on the road. If nothing else, he’s likely a sample for cash games. 

WR – I’m sure Philly will try to stick Darius Slay on Tyreek Hill as much as they can since Slay can run with a 4.3 40-yard dash and he’s only allowed a 53.8% catch rate. However, he doesn’t travel into the slot and Hill has been in the slot at a 36.9% rate. Despite his past two sub-par starts, everything still looks good for him. He’s still third in air yards, he’s third in deep targets, the target share is over 25%, and the yards run per route is 16th. There is really nothing to fear with Hill, although I do prefer his running mate in this spot. 

Mecole Hardman doesn’t look nearly as pretty with just a 14.7% target share and only two deep targets, not to mention sitting 69th in air yards. If he’s not getting consistent deep balls, it’s going to be hard to get behind him as a play. The only reason we could be looking that route is if Slay is drawing Tyreek, Hardman would likely see Steven Nelson who has gotten scorched so far with a 2.27 FPPT, 135.1 passer rating, and a catch rate of almost 77%. 

TE – This is far from a hot take, but the Mahomes/Travis Kelce stack is among my favorite on the slate on the elite end of things. The Eagles linebackers are going to get positively shredded and they’ve already given up 20 receptions and two touchdowns along with 170 yards. Kelce just keeps on ticking with the fourth-most routes, the third-most air yards, second-highest target share, and he sits first in yards and receptions. His 24 DK points per game are more than every running back but Henry and tops all receivers except for Cooper Kupp on this particular slate. When we say he’s worth playing two tight ends, that’s what we’re talking about. 

D/ST – KC is dead last in DVOA, has just four sacks, and four turnovers forced. Even with a defensive touchdown, they only average four DK points per game. That’s a pass from me. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, CEH, Kelce

GPP Plays – Reek, Hardman

Eagles 

QB – As bad as Jalen Hurts looked through portions of the game Monday night, he still scored 25 DK points and did it despite rushing for only 35 yards. Philly is a seven-point dog at home so we have a very negative script projected from Vegas and the Chiefs defense has been one of the worst through the early going. They are dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed 841 passing yards and seven total touchdowns. The rushing yardage against them is inflated because of Lamar Jackson, but Hurts is certainly capable of hurting them like that as well. Hurts is under $7,000 and well in play with the dual-threat capability. He is still seventh in FPDB and hasn’t even played well yet as he sits 23rd in true completion rate. 

RB – We always look for contrarian plays every week and Miles Sanders could be one of those guys this week. He legitimately disappeared on Monday Night Football since the Eagles ran one of the worst offensive game plans of the week and had two carries. TWO. He did tack on three receptions and generate over 50 yards on just five touches, which begs the question of why didn’t he get the ball more. One of the best ways to stop this KC offense is to not let it on the field. I believe the Eagles make a concentrated effort to feed Sanders the ball as the Chiefs are dead last in DVOA against the run and have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards already. On top of that, they’ve surrendered 125 yards through the air and five total touchdowns. This is the perfect spot for a boom game from Sanders. Kenneth Gainwell is more of an MME play because he should get 7-10 touches with a 12% target share and if he poaches a touchdown, you’re in business. 

WR – It was not a good night for the receivers in this offense, especially for Devonta Smith. He got handled by the Cowboys defense and even though he and Jalen Reagor are the only players with more than 11 targets on the season. Smith plays almost all of his snaps on the outside with just a 16% slot rate and he only has 11 receptions through three games. The target share isn’t in the top 30 among receivers and the same goes for Reagor. The only reason to play them is as a run-back option bit the matchups don’t scare me exactly. Both Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed both are over a 1.98 FPPT in their limited targets. The main takeaway is no corner should be feared, but the Eagles passing game just has not been great. 

TE – If I’m going to play one, it may as well be Zach Ertz at this point. The price difference is $1,300 but Ertz has the same amount of targets as Dallas Goedert on fewer snaps and Goedert only has one more RZ target. Goedert does have more receiving yardage but I’m not convinced it’s worth the pricing difference. Kansas City has shown vulnerability just about everywhere on defense, so I’m totally fine with either play but not going out of my way. Only five teams have given up more yards to the position so far. 

D/ST – The Chiefs do have six turnovers already but Mahomes has only been sacked four times. Even at $2,100, I’d play the Lions ahead of the Eagles because Kansas City is obviously far more of a threat to hang 35+ real points. 

Cash Plays – Hurts

GPP Plays – Sanders, Reagor, Smith, Ertz

Panthers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -4)

Panthers 

QB – It’s amazing what can happen when you’re surrounded by competent people. Sam Darnold is fifth in true completion rate, ninth in passing yards, 10th in air yards, and 14th in FPDB. He’s probably not expensive enough quite yet and honestly, the matchup is tough to figure out. Dallas is 14th in DVOA and has been playing much better under coordinator Dan Quinn but at the same time, they are only four yards away from leading the league in passing yards allowed and have allowed the third-most touchdown passes. I’m not sold in cash with some injuries on this side of the ball, but he’s well in play for GPP as a cheap guy to add in more studs. 

Update – As the week has gone on, I’m cool with Darnold in cash and may even wind up playing hims myself.

RB – With CMC out for at least another week or two, all eyes will turn to Chubba Hubbard who turned 14 touches into 79 scrimmage yards. He also dropped a touchdown pass that didn’t matter for the game, but surely will not be looked kindly upon by the coaching staff. Hubbard was more than fine and he’ll likely be a chalk paring with CEH to spend up elsewhere. I do wonder if Royce Freeman gets more involved since the Panthers have a long week to game plan. Freeman had five carries on just a 15% snap rate and this is a spot where we should be monitoring practice and coach speak closely. We also need to recognize that Dallas is 12th in DVOA against the run. It’s a bit hard to gauge because they have only faced 30 rushing attempts on the season, the lowest in the NFL. 

WR – D.J. Moore has scored just one touchdown but he’s the WR10 so far. The breakout is real and he’s 10th in air yards, fifth in receptions, seventh in yards, and 18th in yards per route. His target share is the seventh-highest at 30.7% and he could see even more work without CMC. Trevon Diggs will have a serious test here and he’s been targeted 15 times but has only allowed a 1.49 FPPT. Diggs has played very well so far but the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most yards to the position. 

This is also a spot for Robby Anderson to pop off and I really like him as a GPP play. Let’s look at the factors. Nobody will want to play him with a very slow start to the season. That’s fair but the Panthers are without CMC and traded their starting tight end. Coach Matt Ruhle said they have to do a better job getting him involved. He has 121 unrealized air yards and if Diggs is busy, Anthony Brown should draw most of the coverage. That’s an exploitable spot as Brown has allowed a 15.3 YPR, a 2.27 FPPT, and a 132 passer rating. As of Friday, Moore is one of the most popular receivers on the slate and could provide incredible leverage on just one or two plays. Don’t confuse him with a cash game option, but this is the spot where it’s a perfect storm of factors that point towards a big game. 

TE – There is a reason that Carolina felt comfortable trading away Dan Arnold to the Jaguars this week. The first is simply gambling on the talent of C.J. Henderson from the Jags as he’s a top 10 draft pick at a difficult position to fill. Henderson and Jaycee Horn could potentially turn into a lockdown duo when Horn gets back if Henderson gets right. Anyways, let’s turn the page on the strong roster-building from Carolina and talk about Tommy Tremble. If he takes over the Arnold role of 10.9% target share and roughly 35% of the snaps, he’s a fascinating punt with no CMC in this offense. There’s plenty of chance that Tremble doesn’t do much or is a literal zero but he should take over the receiving tight end role and he had a rushing touchdown last week, which is an interesting wrinkle. The Panthers took him in the third round so they clearly like him and he’s a big target for Darnold to utilize. 

D/ST – The Panthers defense has been incredible but they suffered a couple of key injuries last week, could be breaking in a new corner, and face a dangerous Dallas offense. The price isn’t low enough to justify the risk. 

Cash Plays – Hubbard, Darnold, Moore 

GPP Plays – Anderson, Tremble 

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott didn’t have to turn it loose very often Monday night with only 26 pass attempts, and that’s been about the only thing to complain about so far. After 58 attempts in Week 1, Dak has followed that up with 27 and 26 attempts the past two weeks. Dak is 10th in yards, and 11th in attempts, plus he’s fourth in RZ attempts so far through three weeks. The FPDB is only 22nd and that’s been a slight concern since the volume hasn’t matched anything else for the most part. The good news is he’s first in true completion rate and first in catchable pass rate as well. If he gets the correct game script, there is no reason to worry and we only have a four-point spread here. 

RB – Ezekiel Elliott may have been gifted a touchdown on Monday when CeeDee Lamb fell just short of the end zone, but Zeke was the workhorse and we may need to start treating him as such again. He’s ramped up his carries every week and three receptions is a season-high even when the Cowboys were up big fairly early. Tony Pollard still got 11 carries but Zeke had all five RZ attempts and that’s what we’re looking for. Now, the matchup is tough because Carolina has been the top-ranked DVOA defense through three weeks. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed at just 94 through three weeks and even with a weaker schedule, that is impressive. Having said that, Zeke is back to 18-20 touches, commanding the RZ work, and is $6,500. 

WR – Game script duly noted, it was a very disappointing night for CeeDee Lamb as he just missed a 45-yard touchdown and then did virtually nothing else. it was a bit shocking to see him only targeted three times and I think something that has been notable from the Cowboys offense so far is the flexibility they have shown. If they can run the ball effectively, they don’t hesitate. If they know that they can’t run the ball, Dak will throw it 55+ times and you know what? That is the exact way offenses should work but it can be a little tough for fantasy players. We have to be careful of that although Carolina has allowed nothing to backs so far so maybe Dak chucks with them missing Horn. Lamb is still moving around with 27.2% of his snaps in the slot so Donte Jackson wouldn’t be a concern, especially considering he’s allowed a 2.27 FPPT. 

That matchup also probably matters for Amari Cooper who may be an even better GPP target. Coop has done squat since Week 1 and is battling an injury, but he’s suffered through the same script concerns Lamb has. His target share is only 22.9% with the addition of Schultz and the backs in this passing game but the loss of Horn is a big deal and it’s a lot to ask Henderson to walk into a new system. I’m not totally bought into Carolina being a defensive juggernaut but I don’t think anyone is a cash play. 

TE – It seems like it’s a pretty large chase of a monster game, but you could legit do worse than Dalton Schultz. Through three games, he’s sixth in receptions and seventh in yards and he’s being targeted for a 31.5% target rate on his routes. He’s still not running a ton of routes at just 48 but with Gallup out, he seems to be filling the void a bit behind Cooper and Lamb. 

D/ST – The Dallas defense is playing worlds better than we thought, sitting 15th in DVOA overall, and is very affordable. After CMC left last week, the Carolina offense didn’t look like they were anything special either. If you believe the Diggs can contain Moore, they can probably find success in this spot. They lead the league in takeaways despite only having four sacks on the season so you can do worse in this range. 

Cash Plays – Zeke, Dak, Schultz

GPP Plays – Lamb, Cooper, D/ST 

Giants at Saints, O/U of 42 (Saints -7.5) 

Giants 

QB – It’s a little bit difficult to point to the thing that Daniel Jones does well for fantasy. He is third in rushing yards among quarterbacks but I can’t say that’s going to continue with total confidence. He’s 10th in FPDB but he only has two passing touchdowns, is 15th in yards, and 16th in attempts. Even once they hit the RZ, Jones is just 15th in attempts there and his four RZ carries don’t seem like they’ll stick while Saquon is back. Now kick in that New Orleans is the sixth-best DVOA defense against the pass and will be playing the first true home game in the dome this season and I won’t be playing Jones this week. 

RB – It’s not an easy matchup but Saquon Barkley is still under $7,000 and has to be considered. He touched the ball 22 times last week and six of those were receptions, which is more what we want anyway. He played over 80% of the snaps yet again and appears to be full over his ACL injury. Saquon is sixth in routes across all running backs, which is impressive considering how little he played in Week 1. He also has eight touches inside the RZ and even though the Saints are third in DVOA against the run, they’re allowing five receptions per game to the position as well. Saquon is the type of talent that can overcome a tough matchup. 

WR – I would have to assume very strongly that Kenny Golladay will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore and I just don’t want much to do with that. Golladay is not the type of receiver that I trust in tough matchups yet, nor do I trust Jones to get him the ball. He’s not traveling into the slot at all and that’s no surprise, so Lattimore and his 59.1 passer rating allowed and his 0.96 FPPT will go after Golladay. 

After that, we’re not sure yet. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were forced from last week’s game with hamstrings. We can talk about them if they’re in but if they are out, Collin Johnson could be interesting. He played almost half of the snaps and would up co-leading the team in targets. If Golladay is having a rough time, the ball has to go somewhere. Johnson, Barkley, and the tight end would be leading candidates. 

Update – Shepard and Slayton are both out so my attention turns to Johnson. I’ve seen some folks talk about Kadrius Toney and he did play a lot last week, with 65.7% of the snaps. His three targets combined for an aDOT of 3.0 yards and Johnson had an aDOT of 11.4 yards. Perhaps with the attention going towards the tight end, Johnson winds up being sneaky. To me, I’ll take the role of Johnson over Tonery and hoping he breaks a big play.

TE – It was a pretty encouraging start for Evan Engram in his first game of the season. He ran 26 routes and played 21 snaps in the slot, which was 56.8% of the time. He only caught two passes but he was targeted six times and the receiving corps could be battered in this game. We’ll need to circle back later in the week for clarity on the situation. 

D/ST – New York just really lacks playmakers on this side of the ball and are the bottom 12 in pressures, have three takeaways, and are 23rd in overall DVOA. The only way this play would pay off is if they got a full Jameis Meltdown. 

Cash Plays – Saquon, Engram

GPP Plays – Johnson, Toney

Saints 

QB – I honestly wish I knew what to do with Jameis Winston. The easy track is just to say skip him because he’s only thrown the ball 63 times this season, 30th in the league. That simply won’t cut it most weeks as the Saints have turned into a run-first team and leaning on the defense. He’s 30th in passing yards, 30th in air yards, and the touchdowns have saved him. He’s thrown seven but only two since Week 1. The Giants are 20th in DVOA against the pass and have given up the 12th most passing yards along with six touchdowns. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Jameis eclipse 18-20 DK, but I’m not terribly enthused to find out at this volume. 

RB – Alvin Kamara resides third in the NFL in carries, which is great but only has 10 receptions through three games which are not so great. Even without the receiving floor being what we’re accustomed to, Kamara is still in a very good spot. The Giants are 23rd in DVOA against the run and they have gotten smashed through the air against backs so far. Only the Seahawks have allowed more than the 202 yards receiving New York has allowed and they have allowed the sixth-most receptions. Kamara is still carrying the highest target share on the team at 26.9% and this could be the first game where we really see the dual-threat ability. I will point out that target share isn’t even five targets per game yet. He would be a fascinating pivot if Henry is the chalk at the position. 

Update – I’d give Kamara a slight downgrade since he will be without starting center in Erik McCoy and tackle Terron Armstead. The flip side is maybe they really get him going in the passing game this week.

WR – I’m not falling for the Marquez Callaway game. His touchdown was just a wild heave by Jameis that should have been picked off. He has all of seven receptions all season long, which is just way too thin to trust even at the salary. He’s 89th in routes, 72nd in targets, and 48th in target share. Let’s move on. It’s crazy how disgusting the Saints’ offense got for fantasy within the space of an offseason. The matchup is solid if he avoided James Bradberry but this still isn’t a spot to attack and we may have even better and cheaper value. 

TE – Adam Trautman has had two straight games with zero fantasy points and Juwan Johnson has scored just 3.3 DK over the past two games after his two-touchdown game in Week 1. 

D/ST – I absolutely love the play in a vacuum as the Saints blitz at a top 12 rate, have a top 10 pressure rate, and have seven takeaways. It’s really just a matter if they fit, and they will likely not make it in my builds since I never pay up for defenses. 

Cash Plays – Kamara

GPP Plays – Jameis, D/ST 

Browns at Vikings, O/U of 51.5 (Browns -2)

Browns 

QB – Maybe the Vikings can force the Browns out of their game plan here and how the ball a little more, but you had better hope that happens if you’re playing Baker Mayfield. He’s 28th in attempts, 16th in passing yards, 24th in air yards, 26th in RZ attempts, and 14th in true completion rate with only two touchdown passes all year. To Baker’s credit, he is 15th in FPDB but this is a run-first team when they play the style they want to. Mayfield is more important to real-life football than he is to fantasy football at this juncture. Minnesota sits 24th in DVOA and they have given up the fourth-mod passing yards so there is a scenario where Baker is well worth playing but I think we have better options. 

RB – Kareem Hunt tilted people that played Nick Chubb off the face of the planet last week, and it’s still the same story as it always is with Cleveland. Chubb is going to get the majority of the carries while Hunt gets 6-10 carries a week and the vast majority of the targets. The RZ work has been split so far with Chubb holding an 11-6 edge but you saw last week where the floor is for Chubb. He had no receptions and no touchdowns so his 84 rushing yards was all you got. With the Vikings ranked 27th in DVOA against the run, both players can be considered and with the receiving corps in tatters, you can argue Hunt has the safer floor. He could take a lot of work with no Jarvis Landry and it may not have been an accident he saw seven targets last week. 

WR – I’m going to let Ian (who is a great follow) handle this one – 

Beckham played 64% of the snaps, had a 49.2% air yards share, and nine targets in his first game back from an ACL tear. He’s under $6,000 and this game has one of the highest O/U on the slate, not to mention Jarvis Landry is still out with his MCL sprain. Let’s. Go. No other receiver had more than two targets last week and Beckham is going to get fed. 

TE – With a low-volume offense and multiple tight ends splitting snaps, it just seems like a terrible idea to play just about any of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. The first two have maintained a snap rate over 60% and Hooper is sporting a 14.3% target share to lead 10.4% from the other two. With Beckham back and Hunt involved in the passing game, you’re banking on a touchdown from Hooper. Even then, he scored and had all of 9.9 DK points last week. Playing Hooper means you think this game really gets up and down, which is a possibility. 

D/ST – Cleveland has a top 10 defense in DVOA but I have to be honest, I’m not that interested in going against this Vikings offense right now. They’ve only allowed five sacks and the Browns have only forced two turnovers. 

Cash Plays – Beckham, Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, Baker, Hooper 

Vikings 

QB – I said last week that Kirk Cousins is all steak, no sizzle and then he went and put up a casual 28 DK points. He was phenomenal with 323 yards and three touchdowns and that’s proof of how well he’s played so far. Cousins is seventh in yards, eighth in attempts, and 13th in FPDB while sitting sixth in points per game. He’s also second in true completion rate and has command of this Vikings offense. For what it’s worth, he is second in QBR and his true passer rating is 127.5. Cleveland is 10th in DVOA against the pass but the Vikings receivers offer a tough matchup for anyone and Cousins knows where to put the ball to take advantage. 

RB – We aren’t sure yet if Dalvin Cook makes it back for Week 4, but Alexander Mattison proved once again that the backfield is in capable hands if Cook misses. He gouged Seattle on almost every play to finish with 171 scrimmage yards and he put up 26 DK without the benefit of a touchdown. The Vikings used him in all facets of the game with 32 total touches, which is phenomenal. Cleveland has been tough against the run so far, ranking fourth in DVOA and only allowing 151 yards on the ground and 93 through the air. Both Cook and Mattison will likely be lower rostered, but I will prefer other players in each price range. 

Update – Cook is on track to make his return to the lineup this week.

WR – With the knowledge that Denzel Ward is on the other side but doesn’t shadow typically, that makes this spot interesting for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. They both only roll into the slot about 17% of the time so the focus is on the boundaries for both. It looks a little bit like last year if we’re being honest. JJ is fifth in routes, eighth in air yards share, 10th in both receptions and yards, but has two scores to four for Thielen. The latter is only 36th in yards so he’s being buoyed by the touchdowns, which has been happening since the start of last season. It should also be noted that as of the early going, Ward has not been that great with a 114.3 passer rating, a 1.77 FPPT, and a 76.9% catch rate across 13 targets. That’s not someone that I actively shy away from statistically. Troy Hill has been the slot corner for Cleveland and has been targeted all of once so I’m not actively going after K.J. Osborn since I don’t believe Cousins will support both receivers and both Osborn and the tight end. It will typically be one or the other. 

TE – Ty Conklin had himself a game last week instead of Osborn but we should likely be careful. Half of his 16 targets came just last week and we saw Cousins and company did whatever they wanted. Conklin is on the field all the time at 74% and has a 13.7% target share. He is also still 14th in routes and 16th in target rate, which is not spectacular. Conklin does have 13 receptions which are seventh in the league. He’s a fine option but if he’s popular, I’ll back off outside of possibly cash. 

D/ST – The Vikes are tied for the fourth-most sacks and have benefited greatly from the return of Danielle Hunter in their pass rush. They also only have two takeaways but it is nice to see Baker has been sacked nine times already. Minnesota is 25th in DVOA on the whole so this is an unstable play, but the price isn’t bad. 

Cash Plays – Cousins, Cook

GPP Plays – Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin

Colts at Dolphins, O/U of 42.5 (Dolphins -2)

Colts 

QB – At the risk of cutting GravMatt in Discord deeply, Carson Wentz is just bad. I can’t slice it any other way. The offensive line and coaching in Indy were supposed to revive his career but he’s dealt with injuries again and he sits 29th in clean completion rate. He’s also 30th in catchable pass rate and 26th in FPDB. I’m struggling for reasons to play him when Miami is seventh in DVOA and has only given up five touchdown passes so far. 

RB – Another case of the secondary back outscoring the primary back so far, we’ve arrived at Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. It was very frustrating to see JT get just 10 carries on Sunday considering he ripped off 64 yards rushing and the game wasn’t crazily tilted at any point. Hines had the same amount of total touches at 11 but five of those were receptions and he scored the touchdown, which tilted the score easily towards him. This has to be the week for Taylor. Miami has allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season although they do rank 14th in DVOA against the run. Despite splitting the snaps, Taylor is 12th in carries and second in RZ touches and that’s going to pay off at some point. He’s also 16th in rushing yards overall and there are too many metrics that point to an explosion game sooner or later. 

Update – Quenton Nelson being out doesn’t help the offensive line although Marlon Mack being a scratch would theoretically help the floors for Taylor and Hines.

WR – Michael Pittman is well in play and has been great the past couple of weeks but we’re starting with Zach Pascal. He’s running the most slot snaps of any player in the NFL at 75.6% and running the 11th most routes. He is also third in RZ targets with three touchdowns. The Dolphins have split the slot with Nik Needham and Justin Coleman and both have a FPPT over 1.47 while Coleman is over 2.75. With Pittman having to deal with the duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, we could see work get funneled to Pascal just like we saw last week when Hunter Renfroe paid off for the Raiders. To his credit, Pittman has the sixth-highest air yards share and the seventh-most routes in the league. He’s had 12 targets in each of the past couple of games and has four RZ targets himself. Jones and Howard haven’t been total lockdown corners and Pittman’s best game came with Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Both are in play, but I’ll take the savings on Pascal. 

TE – Jack Doyle is 12th in routes but only 14th in targets and 20th in receptions so far. He’s very cheap but this offense is pretty gross and I might rather play Tremble. Doyle is barely fourth on his own team in targets and his quarterback is one of the worst around. 

D/ST – Indy has only been 21st in DVOA in the first three weeks and has the fewest pressures in the league so far. The good thing is they have forced six takeaways and face a backup quarterback, so they’re still in play but not my favorite of the bunch. 

Cash Plays – Pascal, JT

GPP Plays – Pittman, Hines, D/ST 

Dolphins 

QB – It took 49 attempts but Jacoby Brissett clawed his way to 20.3 DK points last week and remains dirt cheap. While he’s a competent backup, I’m not sure how often we want to go to the well here. Brissett is only throwing for 4.3 yards per attempt, which is 30th and is 34th in FPDB. I grant you that it’s a smaller sample, but he had the full week to prepare and that’s not super encouraging. Miami isn’t going to want him to throw nearly 50 times per game. Indy has been a defense we have picked on with passing games and they are 21st in DVOA, but I’m not super thrilled with this selection. 

RB – There were some encouraging signs for Myles Gaskin as he carried the ball 13 times last week and had six targets. Normally I’d be quick to jump on that volume at $5,300 but he still saw Malcolm Brown usurp seven carries and he got two RZ carries while Gaskin had zero. On the season, Gaskin has just one RZ carry while Brown has four and that’s a huge roadblock to any type of ceiling. The Colts have been middling against the run so far but the DVOA looks stronger at 11th but they have given up 324 rushing yards. If Gaskin is just a between the 20’s player, we can find better options. Players like him need to be involved with all facets of the game. 

WR – There has to be a point where Jaylen Waddle uses his speed and YAC ability to break a big play, but in the meantime, he’s getting nine targets per game and running the 10th most routes per contest. Waddle is a great fit on DK because he’s fifth in receptions already. The low aDOT of 4.6 is helping since he’s catching nearly everything thrown his way. He leads the team in targets and brings a floor while we haven’t seen the ceiling yet with his explosiveness. Waddle is also playing 56% in the slot so the safety valve role works fine at this price tag. 

Choosing between DeVante Parker and Will Fuller is a little tougher as Fuller came back into the lineup and saw six targets on 61% of the snaps and the aDOT was 20.2 yards. I’d love to see Fuller get matched against Rock Ya-Sin with a massive speed advantage and he’s still super cheap. The role he had last week is encouraging as a deep threat while Parker is the safer bet, but likely with less of a ceiling. When things are going well, Fuller and Waddle are the 1-2 punch in this corps. 

TE – Can someone explain why Mike Gesick has run 87 routes but 44 came this week? Why suddenly is Gesicki used in the passing game when Tua is hurt? It’s almost like Miami wants Tua to fail and do things to openly sabotage him. Gesicki is an athletic freak and using him in this style while Tua is out after he only ran 43 routes combined the first two weeks just makes ZERO sense. It’s absolutely ridiculous. You’re supposed to put the young, inexperienced quarterback in positions to make the job easier, not harder. Anyways, if Gesicki is going to run that many routes and carry a 24% target rate while doing it he’s just far too cheap and Brissett has a history of liking his tight ends. I didn’t like him last week based on the usage that Miami showed us. It’s not chasing a big game when the usage backs everything up. 

D/ST – Miami is seventh in overall DVOA, has five turnovers, and is middle of the pack as far as pressures go. As long as Wentz is active on the other side, I’m fine with the opposing defense. He’s being pressured 32% of the time, which is top-four in the league. 

Cash Plays – Waddle, Gesicki

GPP Plays – Fuller, Brissett, D/ST 

Washington at Falcons, O/U of 47 (Washington -1)

Washington 

QB – We have to be careful where we’d want to play Taylor Heinicke because he’s going to be prone to games like last week when the matchup is tilted out of his favor. He saved his day with three total touchdowns but the completion rate was under 60% and he’s pretty lucky a running back housed a screen from a long distance. So far, the FPDB is actually stout at .63, which is ninth in the NFL. He is 10th in true completion rate and with Atlanta sitting 30th in DVOA and giving up an 8:0 TD:INT ratio, Heinicke isn’t the worst play at the position this week. 

RB – Note to Washington – throw the ball to Antonio Gibson. Even RG3 knows the score here – 

Gibson only had one other target the rest of the game, which is immensely frustrating. This game got ugly early so I’m not going to tag them for not giving him more than 12 carries, but that had better change this week. Atlanta has not shown much on either side of the ball, sitting 24th in DVOA and allowing almost 400 total scrimmage yards so far. Gibson is first in evaded tackles, 10th in rush yards, and 12th in receiving yards despite sitting 32nd in routes and 30th in receptions. Washington has to get the ball to him in space more often, especially with the inexperience they have at quarterback. I will continue to play Gibson over J.D. McKissic, regardless of the $1,100 gap in salary. 

WR – The only player I’m looking at on a full slate is Terry McLaurin who is in a much better spot than last week. The Atlanta defense as a whole has already allowed five touchdowns and 495 yards against receivers and aside from some sketchy quarterback play at times, there is still plenty to like. He’s 11th in target share at 28.1% and is 13th in receptions and only 18 of 25 targets have been catchable. McLaurin has 19 receptions so that tells you a lot and I’m sure the Falcons will want to pair him against A.J. Terrell as much as they can. He’s only been targeted four times so far and has yet to allow a single catch through three games, which is impressive. No other receiver is sitting above a 15.9% target share and Adam Humphries is tied with the tight end for second in targets on the team. 

Update – In a surprise, Curtis Samuel is active for this game after practicing all week in pads. I thought we might be able to go there for cash since he is the minimum salary but I’m a little leery after seeing Coach Rivera (congratulations to him on his one-year anniversary for being cancer free) say they’ll “sprinkle him in”. I’m still more than fine in GPP and I guess if the rest of the lineup is loaded….maybe cash. You have to know there’s a risk even at minimum.

TE – No other tight end runs more snaps out of the slot than Logan Thomas and he’s ninth in routes run. The 15.7% target share is eighth among tight ends and he’s accumulated three RZ targets as well. I feel like he’s a little expensive for the role and the quarterback throwing him the ball but the Falcons have already allowed three touchdowns against tight ends. We know more or less who Thomas is and he’s fine, but not anything more in my eyes. 

D/ST – They string of the last three weeks and the price has me not interested in Washington. They are 29th in DVOA, which is pretty shocking given what they have on that side of the ball and they’ve only forced two turnovers and have just six sacks (in fairness, they are tied for the second-most pressures in football). I just wish they were cheaper even against the Falcons. 

Cash Plays – Gibson, Thomas 

GPP Plays – McLaurin, Samuel, Heinicke, D/ST

Falcons 

QB – I think Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are competing to see who is more washed up at this point. Ryan is 29th in yards per attempt, 34th in air yards per attempt, 28th in air yards, and 28th in FPDB. It’s not looking like the best decision ever from the Falcons to pass on quarterback at the fourth pick in the draft. The only thing Ryan is still doing well is coming from play-action since he sits sixth in pass attempts from that play type and first in completion rate. Washington has been horrid defending the pass sitting at 29th in DVOA and allowing the fifth-most passing yards thus far. Ryan is at home and he’s cheap but the true upside seems a bit lacking. 

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson outscored Mike Davis for the second straight week and his role in the offense is becoming undeniable. He is only playing 35.9% of the snaps but he has 21 carries and is only one RZ carry behind Davis at 3-4. He also has 15 targets to 20 for Davis, but has been equal to Davis or has had more the past two weeks. Even his seasonal rate is a solid 12.4% target share and he’s third in receiving yards among backs and seventh in receptions. When Patterson is getting seven carries per game on top of that, this is a pretty cheap 12-14 touches and the Falcons are taking advantage of the skill set. Washington is not playing defense at the level we thought they would as they sit 20th in DVOA against the run. I also believe even though they’ve allowed just eight receptions to backs, that has been more about the teams they have faced than anything else. They got lucky that Austin Ekeler didn’t have a target in Week 1 and Saquon wasn’t up to speed Week 2. With the RZ work being very close, I prefer Patterson.

WR – Calvin Ridley has seen his price fall and even with the concerns with Ryan, I’m really looking at him in GPP. Let’s look deeper. Ridley is fifth in routes, third in RZ targets, third in air yards share, 10th in receptions, and has 157 unrealized air yards. It has to start converting at some point here and he’s being fed nearly 10 targets per game. He doesn’t head into the slot very much at just 9% so he’ll see both Kendall Fuller and William Jackson. Fuller has allowed a 1.71 FPPT and over 200 yards already while Jackson is faring better with a 1.06 FPPT. 

I just can’t buy into Olamide Zaccheaus even after a solid game because I can’t imagine he gets the same amount of work. As it was he was only third on the team with six and he converted his lone RZ target for a score. Normally, a 3/32 line won’t pay the bills and I’ll focus elsewhere. 

TE – Oh Kyle Pitts, why do you torture us? To be more accurate, why does your franchise insist on taking you fourth overall to not give you a target before the fourth quarter and just three overall? Pitts is sixth in slot snaps, eighth in air yards, eighth in yards, 12th in receptions, and ninth in target share at 15.2%. The issues include only sitting 26th in yards per route and 19th in yards per target. His usage is mostly all we could ask for and he’s the TE15…but he’s just not my favorite target in this offense and that goes for real life as well, apparently. 

D/ST – They’re in the bottom three in DVOA and have six sacks along with two takeaways. 

Cash Plays – Ridley 

GPP Plays – Pitts, Patterson, Davis 

Seahawks at 49ers, O/U of 51.5 (49ers -3)

Seahawks 

QB – Seeing the injury issues the 49ers had on Sunday night in their secondary has to make Russell Wilson salivate for this matchup. It still makes me sad that he’s 26th in pass attempts so far. How does Seattle not understand he’s their best shot with that atrocious defense on the other side of the ball? Despite being 26th in attempts, Russ is eighth in passing yards, first in yards per attempt, and fifth in touchdowns on only six RZ attempts. SIX. The most important part of the field but we’re going to give Russ two cracks at it per game. Alrighty then! When he’s kept clean, Russ is first in completion rate and he’s third in passer rating. San Fran is only 19th in DVOA and Wilson will likely be mostly ignored again. Give this guy more attempts! 

RB – I definitely feel concerned a little bit about Chris Carson and where the floor is for him. Perhaps I shouldn’t be because his receiving share really isn’t off base from last season. He’s 15th in carries on the season and fifth in rushing yards, both of which are solid starts. However, he has very little after that with just five targets on the season and he starts to need touchdowns to pay off in a major way. Consider Carson broke off a 30-yard touchdown run early in the game on Sunday but in a trailing game script, he played just 43% of the snaps. Last year saw Carson have an 8% target share and while this year is only at 7%, two targets a game don’t help the cause at this salary. The 49ers are 16th in DVOA and knowing Carson played so little last week when the game was trailing has to be considered. 

WR – DK Metcalf certainly feels too cheap yet again after he went for over 25 DK last week and the man might be the most unique blend of speed and size at the receiver position. Metcalf is still ninth in unrealized air yards but his 2.65 yards per route honestly helps his stability a little bit. Metcalf can stretch the field any time he pleases and he took over the target lead from Tyler Lockett at 25-20. Despite Lockett’s massive start, Metcalf is only 14.9 points behind in PPR and he could face Emmanuel Moseley. He’s 190 pounds and under six feet tall and DK will have an incredible physical mismatch. Lockett is sitting at a 22.5% slot rate and is 15th in air yards himself and we’ve seen the ceiling he carries. As long as the knee injury doesn’t hold him back, the possibility of corner K’Waun Williams won’t either. 

Update – Williams is out and corner Josh Norman is doubtful, not a good mix when facing these two receivers.

TE – Is Gerald Everett playable at his price? I suppose, but the 11.3% target share isn’t something monstrous. Everett has lined up in the slot for 31.4% of his snaps which is 12th but he’s also 21st in receptions and 25th in yards. He’s had exactly one RZ target which isn’t fun to see either so I’m likely going elsewhere. 

Update – Everett is out for Sunday, which could open up Will Dissly as a punt option. I’m not crazy about it, but it helps that the split of targets among both tight ends should funnel directly to Dissly. Then we’re talking about 5-7 targets at $2,600. 

D/ST – This defense has been an abject disaster, there’s no way I’m going here even against a very average quarterback. 

Cash Plays – Metcalf, Lockett, Russ, Carson 

GPP Plays – Dissly 

49ers 

QB – If you have to bring in the rookie quarterback when you’re close to the goal line and the plays are the most important, he should be getting more time anyways but I digress. In fairness, Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play nearly as poorly as the public would have you believe but he had multiple open receivers that he missed. He also had one of the more egregious twirling fumbles I’ve ever seen to gift the Packers a field goal (the 49ers last by two) and if Jimmy G can’t get it done here, he needs to get worried. Seattle has given up the seventh-most passing yards with no interceptions and is 24th in DVOA. San Francisco has a full complement of pass catchers and it’s put up or shut up time for Garoppolo. 

RB – I’m really hoping that Elijah Missile (credit to the Fantasy Footballers for that nickname) is back for this one. Trey Sermon scored a touchdown but my word did he look bad for the most part in that game. He had a dropped pass and looked apprehensive in almost everything he did which is understandable for a rookie. I’m not talking down on him but I would have to think that since Mitchell has shown he can produce, he’d go right back to the lead role and that would be insanely valuable this week. Seattle is 18th in DVOA but just got totally carved up by Mattison on the Vikings, to say nothing of Derrick Henry. Mitchell may not be at that level but has racked up 146 rushing yards on 36 carries so far and would be a very strong play at this price point against the team that has allowed 661 scrimmage yards to running backs so far, easily the most in football. 

Update – Mitchell remains questionable. If Mitchell can’t make this game…..a very crazy play is Kyle Juszczyk. Jus (the more times I have to spell his last name means I’m one time closer to making a mistake) played almost 70% of the snaps and had nine touches. He had more targets than Sermon and his five carries were half of 10 for Sermon. Jus also took two RZ targets, one behind Aiyuk for the team lead. We’re talking a strong path to under five DK points, but it’s at least on the board if Kittle is out as well.

WR – Let’s start off by saying the corners of Seattle like D.J. Reed and Tre Flowers don’t scare anyone. Flowers is getting smacked for a 2.39 FPPT and a 138.4 passer rating and Reed has a 1.71 FPPT mark with a 103.3 passer rating. Now that we’ve established that, let’s welcome Brandon Aiyuk back into the world of fantasy. He played 87.7% of the snaps and saw six targets, which was easily the best of the young season. He also had three EZ targets and the salary has not caught up at $5,000. I would prefer playing him as a run-back over Deebo Samuel at a $1,500 price difference. It’s going to be tough to support all three pass catchers in the offense every game, but if there’s a game to do it…this sure could be the one to do it. Deebo is still 10th in receptions and second in receiving yards, so it’s not like he is priced egregiously. It’s just that much easier to take the Aiyuk route and that likely leaves Deebo as an elite game stacking option. 

TE – When you have a quarterback who is limited like Jimmy G, you should want George Kittle out in the field all the time to catch passes, despite him being an incredible blocker. Kittle is 17th in routes run, which is frankly absurd. His target rate is 28.1% on his routes which is seventh and Kittle is fifth and third in receptions and yards, respectively. All of that is on just 64 routes through three games! The Niners trailed almost the entire game last week and he still wasn’t used enough, although 7/92 isn’t that bad. Kittle is under $6,000 in a high total game, and that’s pretty much all I need to hear. 

Update – Shanahan is saying that Kittle is not guaranteed to play on Sunday so we need to keep an eye on that.

D/ST – I’m not playing defense against Russ, especially when the secondary could be this battered. 

Cash Plays – Mitchell (if healthy), Aiyuk, Kittle (if healthy)

GPP Plays – Deebo, Jus

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 55 (Rams -4)

Cardinals 

QB – It was a funky game from Kyler Murray last game but I have absolutely no worries coming into this one. His history against the Rams is not great but things change so fast in the NFL. This offense is different with added weapons and the Rams are only 13th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is also extremely difficult to defend in general and has plenty of rushing upside regardless of the matchup. He’s third in passing yards, seventh in RZ attempts, just 17th in attempts, and second in FPDB because he has 70 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to go along with everything else. You can play him by himself or with any other passing option in this game as we try and find ways to get unique since this game should carry the most popularity. 

RB – James Conner stealing two touchdowns was annoying and it was going to happen at some point considering he has eight RZ carries to just three for Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds still has 31 carries to 35 for Conner and Edmonds has a 17.4% target share compared to just one lone target for Conner through three weeks. Two targets have come in the RZ so the gap in touches there is a little bit smaller as well. This game should feature plenty of passing from each team and the Rams are only 21st in DVOA against the run to this point. Combining that with them giving up 19 receptions to the backs, and Edmonds is still the better play in my eyes since the prices are so close together. 

WR – This is a spot where I absolutely don’t blame the Cardinals for doing it, but this receiving corps could be a real pain to project every week. All four of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green are all between a target share of 18% and 14%. The scary part is Nuk is third, and we still have Edmonds taking up targets as well. It makes the offense that much harder to defend but it’s almost like pulling straws to see who goes off every week. Jalen Ramsey typically doesn’t shadow but he can and I would expect him to have plenty of time on Hopkins. I don’t view him as the best spend in this game if he’s going to be hampered by a rib injury and sees one of the better corners in football. FWIW, he has yet to exceed 21 DK points in any of his four games against the Rams. 

So if we’re stacking, we have to go elsewhere in my eyes, and Green and Kirk are leading the pack. Green has four RZ targets and has been mostly on the outside and would have a big height advantage over Darious Williams and his 1.53 FPPT. Kirk has been in the slot about 60% of the time and sits 10th in yards per route at 3.37. Now, Ramsey has played plenty of slot corner at 53.7% so he could draw the worst matchup but I also have a hard time believing the Rams just give Hopkins a free run in this game. Moore is a super exciting player, but it was discouraging to see him fall under a 35% snaps rate last week and that’s a major red flag after almost 50% in Week 2. 

TE – I did get Maxx Williams right last week, meaning he did virtually nothing on just three targets. I stand firm in the fact Week 2 will likely be his best week of the year and seven of his 11 targets came in that week. He wouldn’t even be on the radar without that week. 

D/ST – Nope. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, Edmonds, Kirk, Green 

GPP Plays – Hopkins, Moore 

Rams 

QB – It’s kind of funny to see Matthew Stafford only 22nd in passing attempts because I definitely thought the Rams would be more pass-heavy with him. He’s turned that into the fifth-most pass yards, the sixth-most air yards, nine touchdowns, and the fifth-highest FPDB. Stafford is one of the (very) early front runners for MVP and the price is more than fair. 

RB – It appears that Darrell Henderson has a good shot to make it back this week and if he does, he could be a great pivot from the passing games in this contest. Henderson has exceeded 15 touches in each of his two starts so far and scored in each one. Being attached to one of the best passing attacks in football has privileges because, in two games, Henderson only saw a stacked front 20.7% of the time. Sony Michel could wind up being more involved since he had a whopping 23 touches without Henderson in but Henderson is still expected to be the lead back and is very cheap for this contest. Surprisingly, these teams are in the bottom 12 in the pace of play early on but the offensive firepower will make up for that. 

Update – Henderson is fully expected to play in this game and is a very affordable way to get into this game.

WR – Play Cooper Kupp. That is all. 

Alright, not really. You should play Kupp because he’s been amazing and leads the league in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and he’s third in yards per route run. His 35.5% target share is fourth and there’s not much left to say about him right now. 

Having said all that and believing it, Robert Woods continues to be a strong GPP option because he still has a 20% target share, four RZ targets, and three EZ targets. He will not continue to convert a little over half of his targets and while he may not be the alpha on the squad, his role is still valuable and as much as I love Kupp, he’s not scoring 30 DK every single week (I think). Robert Alford and Byron Murphy have both allowed either a 72% catch rate or a FPPT of 1.85, so we should have little concern there. Lastly, I would caution chasing the DeSean Jackson game. He was a monster but played just 32% of the snaps and actually had one fewer target than Van Jefferson. 

TE – Tyler Higbee continues to play a massive amount of snaps at 93.5% and he’s fourth in that stat. Higbee is also fifth in RZ targets and has a 12.9% target share on the season thus far. The Cards have allowed the second-fewest yards and only eight receptions against tight ends, but they haven’t exactly played strong options so that is less of a concern for me. Higbee is solid but he may need a touchdown to pay off in this game. 

D/ST – Also nope. 

Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford, Higbee

GPP Plays – Woods, Jefferson, Henderson (or Michel if Henderson can’t make it)

Steelers at Packers, O/U of 46 (Packers -6.5)

Steelers 

QB – I’m going to be short and sweet here, and this sucks. Just watch Ben Roethlisberger after he “throws” this ball – 

Don’t play Big Ben. 

RB – We saw last week that Najee Harris is never fully out of play since the Pittsburgh offense can’t move the ball and he’s going to see just a ridiculous amount of targets. Having said that, it has to be talked about that Diontae Johnson was out and JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game having played not even 40% of the snaps. The Packers are vulnerable against the run ranking 28th in DVOA and they’ve allowed 353 scrimmage yards along with three touchdowns. This game projects to be a very negative game script for Pittsburgh so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Najee with another 10 carries and 6-8 receptions, regardless of who’s playing receiver. 

WR – The practice reports are crucial here because Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s status could make a massive difference. Johnson was limited on Wednesday so that’s a good sign and I’ll be interested if he’s active. Jaire Alexander doesn’t always shadow and Johnson has a massive 30.5% target share. He’s one of the sharpest route runners in football and will be almost guaranteed 10+ targets. 

JuJu did not practice but that doesn’t mean a lot at this point. He’s cheap enough to consider I guess but a 4.1 aDOT and the third-most targets are not a good mix. That’s not even mentioning that Harris will eat targets as well. Chase Claypool needed both receivers out to have a game worth fantasy consideration, and he would likely see some of Alexander with just an 11.6% slot rate. Claypool is fourth in unrealized air yards, but we can’t be confident that trend reverses. Let’s circle back on Friday to see who all will be in this game. 

Update – Diontae is expected to play and is line for at least 10 targets, no issues with playing him. He also may need to stretch the field a bit more because Claypool may miss this game. He went from limited on Thursday and DNP on Friday. JuJu is there but I almost never play him. Packers corner Kevin King is doubtful so that helps Diontae because he could see more of rookie Eric Stokes.

TE – Pat Freiermuth has clearly overtaken Eric Ebron in production at this position but I may not get too carried away here. He’s 30th in routes because the offensive line needs all the help it can get and he’s not even inside the top 20 in receptions or yards. Maybe if the receivers are out again, I’ll change my mind but I’m not there yet. The fact Claypool may not play could get the rookie a couple of more targets.

D/ST – Do we play defenses (even though T.J. Watt is back) against the Packers at home when they’re healthy? We do not, let’s keep going. 

Cash Plays – Harris, Johnson 

GPP Plays – JuJu, Freiermuth

Packers 

QB – I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers should be under $7,000 on DK this week at home against a reeling Steelers squad. They just let Joe Burrow throw for three touchdowns on just 18 pass attempts and they’re not going to have a single answer for the lead receiver in this game. What is kind of funny is the metrics for Rodgers don’t look as great as you would expect. He’s only 24th in attempts, 26th in passing yards, 22nd in air yards, and 17th in FPDB. Just remember, one of their games this year was one of the worst that Rodgers has ever played. That skews the numbers. He’s still seventh in RZ attempts and my only fear is they don’t need to pass a ton because the game is won early. Having said that, he could easily go for 275 yards or more and three touchdowns so I’m very interested. 

RB – I’ll be honest, it’s going to be difficult to not play Davante Adams at what amounts to the same exact price. However, I don’t think I’ll be alone in that thought process and Aaron Jones could well turn into an elite pivot. Pittsburgh does rank sixth in DVOA against the run so far but Joe Mixon found some success last week and the Packers are very unlikely to just abandon the run completely. In addition, only Henry and CMC have more RZ rushes than 13 for Jones and he’s tacked on five targets. That’s six RZ touches per game to this point which is the most among backs and if he finds the end zone instead of Adams, we know what the upside is and it is extreme. 

WR – I know it can be tough to narrow things down but Davante Adams has to be very high on the list of my favorite plays on the slate. He is unstoppable and past Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the secondary for Pittsburgh is not great. Adams is first in receptions, fourth in yards, seventh in yards per route, eighth in RZ targets, and second in target share at 37.4%. He should not be under $8,000 on the main slate for any reason. 

We can also continue to plays Marquez Valdes-Scantling since he only needs one big play to pay off and he’s number one in unrealized air yards. I can’t imagine that continues with Rodgers as his quarterback and only six of his 16 targets have been ruled catchable. Sometimes air yards can be a bit misleading because air yards don’t always translate to catchable passes. When there’s a poor quarterback, I’d be concerned. That’s about as far as possible from the case here. MVS also has three EZ targets, which lead the team right now. No other player outside of Jones has a target share over 6% so we can move on. 

Update – MVS is out and Adams is just going to smash.

TE – Robert Tonyan is really in an odd spot as far as salary. There are multiple options that are cheaper than he is that I would rather play because Tonyan has been exactly what we thought he would be – touchdown or bust. He’s 30th in receptions and 31st in yardage while sitting 25th in routes. If we’re playing these types of tight ends, just play Gesicki and hope Miami keeps him running routes. 

D/ST – If you just despise the punt options, I guess you can go here even though Green Bay has just five sacks and is 26th in DVOA. The Steelers offense and the play of the quarterback and offensive line equal things out, however. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Rodgers, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Jones

Ravens at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Broncos -1)

Ravens 

QB – This is a pretty interesting spot for Lamar Jackson and one I believe gets very little attention. Nobody is going to play him with the options around him. If the Ravens can’t get much going through the air against the secondary of Denver, Lamar will have even more incentive to take off out of the pocket and that just raises the floor and ceiling. He’s already at 251 rushing yards on 35 carries, both easily the first among quarterbacks. Now you add in the 761 passing yards and it’s easy to see why he’s fourth in FPDB on the young season. Denver is fifth against the pass in DVOA and they are under 600 yards allowed. Don’t forget, they have faced Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawerence, and Zach Wilson so far. Lamar has his warts but he is far better than those players at this juncture. 

RB – I feel like we need an ESPN 30 For 30 short just to explain why on this good Earth Ty’Son Williams suddenly only had five carries while Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman combined for 10. A week after coach John Harbaugh was praised for making the correct decision to go for it on 4th down against the Chiefs, he turns around and lets this happen. Now they have to go into Denver and face the eighth-ranked DVOA defense against the run and I’m not going to chase much here. Williams is averaging 6.1 YPC to 3.5 for Murray and Freeman has only had five attempts so far. Williams has shown some issues with ball security and blitz pickups, but if that didn’t get him in hot water against KC I’m not sure why it would now. Baltimore’s run game can make bad matchups irrelevant, but it won’t matter for fantasy with this three-way split. 

WR – My word, it should have been a massive day for Marquise Brown last week with multiple drops that really hampered his day. He leads the team in targets, air yards, RZ targets, and EZ targets but this matchup is not going to be easy. This is a tougher spot as Kyle Fuller and Patrick Surtain are both under a 60% completion rate allowed and under a 1.80 FPPT. Denver is also inside the top 10 in yards allowed against receivers but the price is right for GPP contests. Sammy Watkins only has 12 receptions so far and he could wind up being the third option in this offense. I’d rather not attack the corners here and would just play the tight end. 

TE – Mark Andrews had the game that some of his metrics had pointed to since he’s been running the 10th most routes and he has the fifth-most air yards. He’s still looking for his first trip to the end zone but just sitting seventh and fourth in receptions and yards is enough for him to be the TE9 on the season. We all know that he won’t go very long without a score but it is odd to see him have no RZ targets thus far. Denver has allowed basically zero production against the position but we have to consider the schedule and Andrews is easily the best one they have faced so far. With the potential of the corners muting the receivers, Andrews could wind up being the best player from this team. 

D/ST – Denver has only turned the ball over twice and Baltimore has only got home five times while sitting 20th in DVOA. I want some upside at their salary and I’m not sure if they have it this week. 

Cash Plays – Andrews, Jackson 

GPP Plays – Brown 

Broncos 

QB – Teddy Bridgewater had his first dud of a game on the season but we kind of saw that coming. He only had to throw the ball 25 times and there were no touchdowns to be had so the score looks very poor. He’s still 11th in yards, seventh in air yards, eighth in YPA, and 18th in FPDB. Baltimore has been vulnerable against the pass so far and ranks 20th in DVOA along with the third-most passing yards allowed. I don’t have a giant need for Teddy B, but I expect a much better game from him this week. 

RB – Speaking of split backfields, here’s Denver and the duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I think Williams is the better player and he’s evaded 14 tackles already, good for fifth in the league. I give credit for MG3 breaking a big run in Week 1, but that has skewed many metrics toward him including rushing yards and YPC. Still, all of this is a theoretical exercise. This is how much weight my thoughts on the split matter – 

It doesn’t matter if I think Javonte is better because the Broncos are 3-0 and this duo is doing everything they’re asked to do. The coaching staff is absolutely not changing what is working right now since Denver is tied for seventh in rushing yards per game. Gordon has a small edge in RZ work, targets, and carries so even though the receiving corps is suddenly thinner than we thought, Gordon is likely the better play this week against Baltimore and the 10th ranked DVOA against the run. 

Update – Gordon has been limited all week and is questionable, which would be awesome for Williams but the jury is out on if MG3 plays.

WR – A strength of this team has turned thin awfully quick with Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick the final two players of fantasy relevance. The stats for Patrick don’t exactly speak to his role in this offense that he’s going to have now and the good news is he’s not moving from the slot to outside. Patrick was already playing on the outside which helps. He’s already second in receptions on the team with Sutton leading and Patrick has three RZ targets as well. Corners Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey are on the other side and Smith has only been targeted three times in his one game. Humphrey hasn’t been playing the slot as much since they are missing players and has been allowing a 2.00 FPPT so far across 21 targets. I prefer Patrick and the savings, but both players should start seeing 6-8 targets at a minimum this week. 

TE – The Broncos didn’t have to keep their foot on the gas last week and I hope that’s the only reason Noah Fant was targeted just three times in that game. With the loss of Jeudy and Hamler, this passing game is a lot more narrow than it was just three weeks ago. Hamler and Jeudy accounted for 17 targets in their partial games and Fant was already running the 12th most routes among tight ends. His target rate of 23.9% is almost guaranteed to go up from here on out and his salary is reasonable. I still would be careful after what Baltimore did against Hockenson last week. They have faced Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Hock so far so the production they have given up is likely not indicative of where they end the year at. 

D/ST – Likewise, I think the Broncos are too expensive for the matchup. This is a good defense, sitting fifth in DVOA overall, they have five takeaways, and they have eight sacks. Jackson has been sacked eight times but he can also escape like basically no other player in the league. I do like the secondary can likely stifle his receivers but the price is just too high for my builds. 

Cash Plays – Patrick, Fant, Sutton 

GPP Plays – Teddy B, MG3, Williams 

Cash Core 4

Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Evan Engram, Odell Beckham

GPP Core 4

Travis Kelce, Robby Anderson, Darrell Henderson, Devonta Smith

Stacks

Chiefs/Eagles – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, CEH – Run Backs – Smith, Sanders, Reagor, Hurts

Cards/Rams – Stafford, Kupp, Woods, Jefferson, Higbee – Run Backs – Kirk, Green, Edmonds, Nuk, Kyler

Seahawks/49ers – Russ, DK, Lockett, Dissly – Run Backs – Aiyuk, Samuel, RB (need clarity there), Kittle

Panthers/Cowboys – Darnold, Anderson, Moore, Hubbard, Tremble – Run Backs – Lamb, Cooper, Zeke, Schultz, Dak

Browns/Vikings – OBJ, Hunt, Chubb – Run Backs – Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, Conklin, Cousins

Steelers/Packers – Rodgers, Adams, Jones – Run Backs – Diontae, Freiermuth

Punts to Make Things Work – This is just my personal pool of players that I’m considering and I try to avoid using two in the same lineup

RB – Michael Carter, Cordarrelle Patterson and maybe Javonte Williams (Jus if Mitchell is out and you’re crazy)

WR – Curtis Samuel, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Collin Johnson, D-Jax

TE – Tommy Tremble or Will Dissly

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport