NFL DFS Week 6 – Cash Game Checkdown

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Running hot, baby! A huge output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games and I believe the best week of my NFL DFS career. We absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots and shoutout to our boy, Pickett’s Picks for a massive takedown on the MNF slate! Congratulations, buddy! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
• Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (35%), Darrell Henderson Jr. (40%), Darrel Williams (25%), Jonathan Taylor (25%), Khalil Herbert (25%), Austin Ekeler (20%), Davante Adams (30%), Tee Higgins (25%), Jakobi Meyers (25%), Terry McLaurin (20%), Mark Andrews (25%), Ricky Seals-Jones (20%)
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD)

It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 29th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 54 points (the highest on the slate). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns and a little bit more rushing equity than usual with no Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start.

Lamar Jackson ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD)

Honestly, I’m not incredibly high on Lamar Jackson after his career game on Monday night, but if he’s going to be 30-40% owned in cash games, it’s hard not to lock-button Lamar Jackson in a 52-point total game against the Chargers. The model loves Lamar Jackson, grading him over a 3.2x value (in comparison to his salary) and I will not argue with you if Jackson is your QB of choice in your cash games. My personal feeling is that this is more of a slower-paced, running game-plan for Baltimore as the Chargers’ bleed production to opposing rushing attacks (worst in the NFL at ~5.6 yards per carry allowed).

Taylor Heinicke ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

If you prefer the salary-relief, QB route, look no further than Taylor Heinicke. We spoke about the crazy-high total in this game when discussing Mahomes and the same situation applies to Mr. Heinicke, except the matchup is even better than Patrick Mahomes’ as the Chiefs’ grade 31st in pass-defense DVOA. As much as I don’t really trust Taylor Heinicke (which is a huge factor in a cash game lineup), this Kansas City defense is non-existent and shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Washington passing attack. Like Mahomes, Heinicke also offers a bit of a higher floor with his legs.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)

Ekeler is riding one helluva hot streak and I don’t see that stopping this weekend against Baltimore who’s given up an average of six receptions per game to opposing running backs. We don’t expect Ekeler to smash via the run, but his dual-threat ability to fill up the fantasy box scores make him 100% cash viable in this high-totaled matchup against the Ravens.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

We always want to use Vegas as a guideline when building our NFL DFS lineups and there’s no better positive gamescript for a running back than being a double-digit, home favorite. Well, that narrative surrounds our boy, Jonathan Taylor this week as they host the Houston Texans and their 30th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA). If you’re not locking in Michael Pittman, roll with Jonathan Taylor who currently has a 100+ all-purpose yard player prop in addition to (-200) odds to score a touchdown. There’s not many safer plays at the running back position than Jonathan Taylor, despite all-pro guard, Quenton Nelson on IR.

Kareem Hunt ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

No Nick Chubb, all systems go for Kareem Hunt who should be primed up for another blow-up performance against Arizona’s run defense giving up over 5.4 yards per carry to opposing backs. Lock him in!

Khalil Herbert ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD)

With Damien Williams on the COVID-19 list, it’s go-time for rookie running back, Khalil Herbert. We’ll likely all need the value at one of the running back positions and it’s very likely 50% of the NFL DFS cash game field locks in Herbert… let’s do the same.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Darrell Henderson Jr., Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Davante Adams, if you can afford him, you play him. Ridiculous pricing over at FanDuel, lol.

DJ Moore ($7,300 DK / $7,600 FD)

Like Adams, DJ Moore has a borderline slate-leading, 30% expected target share in the AETY Model projections. We love picking on this Minnesota secondary on a weekly basis and it’s yet to let us down (outside of Baker Mayfield under-throwing Odell Beckham multiple times when we locked him in a couple weeks ago) as we always want to attack any wideout who sees Bashaud Breeland 40% of the time, or more, in coverage. Robby Anderson is also in a nice spot here but I cannot recommend playing him in cash, whatsoever.

Terry McLaurin ($7,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Get exposure this this Kansas City / Washington game! The AETY Model currently grades Terry McLaurin as the 6th overall value play at the wide receiver position and assuming the non-participant in Friday’s practice was strictly precautionary, it’s wheels up for McLaurin against this sieve of a Kansas City secondary.

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,100 FD)

We discussed the high-total in this matchup in the Ekeler write-up and it has me licking my chops to go back to the well with Keenan Allen in a matchup against Baltimore slot-cornerback, Tavon Young. Young has been brutal in coverage thus far through 2021 and has his toughest matchup to date here against Keenan Allen. It looks like Mike Williams is truly questionable for this matchup and Allen would be a cash game staple for me if he’s ruled out, but having said that, I’m 100% interested in Keenan Allen even if Mike Williams is a go. This matchup is pristine and we’re due for a Keenan Allen breakout game in 2021. In addition, he also grades out as the #1 value at the wide receiver position on the AETY Model (with Mike Williams projected as ACTIVE).

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,550 DK / $5,800 FD)

Simply way too cheap for a clear-cut, WR1 against a Houston Texans pass-defense that grades 30th in DVOA. If you’re not playing Jonathan Taylor, load up Michael Pittman and get exposure to this Colts’ offense who grades 4th on the slate in total offense equity on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, exclusive to Win Daily Sports.

Jakobi Meyers ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

Another nice value would be the Patriots’ wideout, Jakobi Meyers. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of his but the volume in the passing attack is hard to ignore and this matchup against Dallas should bode well for the Patriots in a “catch-up” style gamescript. I prefer Pittman here at this price, but Meyers’ is 100% in play for cash games, but I would only recommend him on DraftKings in a full-point PPR format.

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Mecole Hardman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings with the amount of value that has opened up on this slate via injuries. If you can afford Travis Kelce, you lock him in and expect a massive “get-right” game here against the Washington Football Team and their majority-zone defense.

Mark Andrews ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

What a game for Mark Andrews and the Ravens’ passing attack on Monday Night! Surprise to no one, the recency bias could not be higher for Mark Andrews and for good reason, the DFS sites butchered his price-point. As much as the GPP mentality in me says to fade Andrews here, the Chargers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends. This matchup is sexy and the high total is sexy. I’m fine if you want to eat the chalk here with Andrews in both cash games and GPP builds.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000 DK / $5,000 FD)

Like the Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs bleed production to opposing tight ends (27th in TE pass defense DVOA). As much as I hate “punt” tight-ends (also pat on my back for the Dan Arnold call last week, hehe), this is an excellent spot for Seals-Jones in a projected shootout against the Chiefs. Seals-Jones may not get a ton of volume, but he tied for first in red-zone targets in Week 5 and should offer plenty of red-zone upside as they go back and forth with Kansas City’s offense all Sunday long.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.