NFL DFS

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 9

We are back for Week 9 and this slate is a little bit better than last week, even with some crazy news already. There are 11 games on this slate and we have a lot to get to so let’s not waste any time in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 9!

Bills at Jaguars, O/U of 48.5 (Bills -14.5)

Bills 

QB – It speaks to just how good Josh Allen is when he can do virtually nothing for a half of football and wind up scoring almost 30 DK points. He’s as close to bust-proof as you get in fantasy and he deserves to be the most expensive option on the slate. The Jacksonville defense is going to have a difficult time mounting any resistance as they are dead last in DVOA against the pass. Allen remains in the top-five in air yards, touchdowns, red-zone attempts, and all rushing categories. If you pay up, this is your man right here. 

RB – It wasn’t the biggest game for Zack Moss on Sunday, but he did exceed 11 DK points for the fifth time in six games. Moss played 64% of the snaps this past week and out-classed Devin Singletary in about every way possible. He had three red-zone carries to just one for Singletary and saw seven targets, easily the most of the season for him. If Moss is going to see both the targets and the red-zone work, there is not much of an argument to be made to play anyone but him. It’s a bit surprising to see Jacksonville rank third-best in yards per carry allowed, but that is the case heading into Week 9. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to backs among teams that have only played seven games on top of that, making Moss a very average play on paper. He’ll need to find pay dirt to have a ceiling. 

WR – I’m going to continue to jam Stefon Diggs in lineups until I get that nuclear game and it could very well be this week. He’s still 10th in unrealized air yards and just 16th in receptions and 20th in yards but the potential is there. Tyson Campbell or Shaquill Griffin has nothing for Diggs as they are both over a 1.40 FPPT and Campbell is spiked at 2.17. It’s a great bounce-back spot for Emmanuel Sanders as well, coming off a goose egg. He was popular too so his league-leading aDOT of 18.2 might go lower rostered than it should. 

Cole Beasley got some of the work I expected from the Bills losing their starting tight end, and then he got some more. It was very frustrating to play Sanders and see Beasley go nuts and I doubt he gets 13 targets again. However, if they’re in the same style of spot they were last week he could play 71% of the snaps again. 

TE – Tommy Sweeney played 82% of the snaps last week which is encouraging for a backup. He also may not be needed as Dawson Knox is listed as day-to-day and could be active for this game. We’ll have to circle back for this play but the Jaguars have given up the fifth-most yards on the season to the position. 

Update – Knox is out but it’s still difficult to trust Sweeney after he got very little work last week. We also have another punt down the line.

D/ST – The Buffalo defense should have a monster day this week as they are first in total DVOA, generate the highest pressure rate in the league, and have forced 18 turnovers (tied for the most). Jacksonville’s offense has been mostly terrible and a rookie quarterback is not likely to find much success here. Still, $4,000 is a lot to pay for. 

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Beasley 

GPP – Sanders, Moss

Jaguars 

QB – Is Trevor Lawerence a very talented quarterback with a bright future? You bet. Am I playing him against what is statistically the best defense in football while Lawerence is 29th in FPPD, 24th in points per game, 24th in yards, and 13th in attempts? No, no I am not. 

RB – It’s going to be very difficult to build the case for James Robinson here. He was injured early last week and only had five touches, so he has to overcome that in the first place. Even then, Buffalo has been tough on opposing backs. They’re fifth-best in rushing yards allowed per game, sixth-best in yards per carry allowed, and 5th in DVOA against the run. No team has allowed fewer receptions to backs and only five teams have allowed fewer receiving yards. This seems like a poor investment with a rookie quarterback at the helm and a catastrophe as far as coaching goes. 

Update – Robinson is questionable with just one limited practice and I’m certainly not playing Carlos Hyde.

WR – I haven’t been interested yet and that’s not changing now. Marvin Jones likely sees Tre White, who is back to form and boasts a 42.9% catch rate allowed through 42 targets and a 0.92 FPPT. Jamal Agnew has been way more involved lately but sees most of Levi Wallace and his 1.43 FPPT. Lastly, Laviska Shenault hasn’t even been successful in the offense since D.J. Chark went down for the season. On top of all of that, Lawerence has to get them the ball which is a dicey proposition. 

TE – I’m not as excited as I was last week, but Dan Arnold is becoming a big part of this Jacksonville offense. In his three full games, he has an 18.4% target share and is only three targets off the team lead. It’s a brutal matchup for the offense as a whole but Arnold could be the safety valve with a 5.2-yard aDOT. Buffalo has excelled against the position, but they’ve only played one great player in Travis Kelce. Arnold was a priority last week but that’s not the case this week. 

D/ST – They just got worked by Geno Smith, there is zero chance I’m touching the Jaguars against the Bills offense. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Arnold 

Texans at Dolphins, O/U of 46 (Dolphins -5.5)

Texans 

QB – Just like last week, my interest depends on Tyrod Taylor’s status. If he’s back in action, I’m going to have what is likely an unhealthy amount. He had a 0.89 FPPD and that would rank among the leaders at the position. Miami is 26th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in yards allowed per attempt, so this would be a soft landing spot to come back into the lineup. Look for an update Friday night. If Davis Mills is still starting, I’m not looking here at all. Even in the great matchup, he’s 33rd in FPPD, 27th in yards, and 33rd in accuracy rating. 

Update – Tyrod is back and it is wheels all the way up at his salary. 

RB – There was a logic behind thinking David Johnson would get played more with Mark Ingram being traded to New Orleans. Well, Houston wanted to make sure they blew that one right out of the water as he played 18% of the snaps (!) and saw them knock the mothballs off Rex Burkhead to handle seven touches. This committee approach is death for fantasy and they’re not going to get me again. I’m all the way out, even though the matchup is great against the Dolphins and the 16th ranked DVOA against the run. You simply don’t know who it’s going to be on any given week. 

WR – Brandin Cooks still being in Houston after the trade deadline is a bad move by them but it helps us this week. Miami has been exploitable all year through the air and Cooks is the unquestioned alpha in this passing game. He’s fourth in air yards share, 10th in yards, fourth in receptions, sixth in target share, and seventh in total targets. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are both having subpar seasons and Cooks has a lower time in the 40-yards dash, suggesting he can run right by them. Nico Collins could have a tougher time against Howard and it remains to be seen what kind of chemistry he has with Tyrod. His 15 targets over the past three weeks are duly noted, but Cooks is the man in this offense and is not priced accurately. 

TE – I’m not excited for anyone here but if Pharaoh Brown sits again, a stone-cold punt could be rookie Brevin Jordan. He played last week and only ran 10 routes, so the floor here is zero. Still, he turned four targets into 3/41/1 and he’s a big dude at 6’3″, weighing 245 pounds. He also saw a red-zone target and Miami has allowed the second-most yardage to the position. 

Update – Brown is out.

D/ST – It does seem that Miami is good for a turnover or two per game, and Houston does have nine on the season. When we’re in the punt range for defense, we just don’t want a negative and that doesn’t feel like it would happen this week. Houston also has a pressure rate under 20% so maybe if they fit, but nothing more. 

Cash – Tyrod, Cooks

GPP – Collins, Jordan 

Dolphins 

QB – We kind of knew to avoid Tua Tagovailoa last week but I have to give him some respect for grinding out 16.2 DK points in an awful spot. Houston is 16th in DVOA against the pass and are 30th in yards allowed per attempt, so there is much more appeal this week. The Texans are also at 15 passing touchdowns given up, so here is some upside to be had for Tua. For as much as everyone loves to hate him, he’s 15th in FPPD which is totally fine given his weapons. Also, he’s eighth in deep ball completion rate and fourth in red-zone completion rate. I’ll remain interested under $6,000. 

RB – I mentioned that it’s hard to trust this team as a whole but if there was ever a spot to take the chance on Myles Gaskin, this is it. He’s still under $6,000 on DK and we can gripe about Salvon Ahmed taking seven carries and two targets, but Gaskin still had 15 touches last week. Throughout the season, he has 66 carries while no other back has more than 35 and he has a 12.9% target share. That’s plenty at this salary and the Texans bleed production against running backs. They are 31st in rushing yards allowed, 30th in yards per rush, and are dead last in rushing yards allowed. The next closest team that has played eight games is Chicago, and Houston has them beat by 131 yards. 

WR – The duo of DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle both saw double-digit targets last week, which was a surprise. Waddle has the eighth-highest slot rate of any receiver in football and that matches him on Tavierre Thomas if the alignments hold up. He’s allowed a 72.7% catch rate but just a 1.24 FPPT so far on a few targets. Waddle leads in target share on this team however so he’s not a bad play.

Terrance Mitchell would draw Parker and Mitchell has a 108.8 passer rating allowed with a 1.86 FPPT. Parker could be a super sneaky player in a game that could be an ugly shootout with either defense being that proficient. 

Update – Parker has ended up on the IR, and that gives a huge bump to Waddle and the next player.

TE – I’m not sweating a bit of a down game from Mike Gesicki in Buffalo. He’s still leading the position in slot snaps and he’s third in air yards, receptions, routes, and targets. It tells you a lot that he’s a top-eight tight end in points per game with just two touchdowns. He’s under $5,000 yet again and the Texans are tied for the most touchdowns allowed with the seventh-most yards given up. This is a great spot for him and an option for a cheap Tua stack if you wish. 

D/ST – Can I answer this when I know who starts for the Texans? If it’s Mills, I’m willing to give it a go but if it’s Tyrod, I’ll pass. Miami is only 26th in total DVOA and they have just 12 sacks. Their drop-off in quality has been swift and very surprising. 

Update – Not interested with Tyrod active. 

Cash – Gesicki, Waddle, Gaskin

 GPP – Tua

Falcons at Saints, O/U of 41.5 (Saints -6.5)

Falcons 

QB – I’m not really looking to Matt Ryan at all. It’s a tough spot with the game being in New Orleans and the Saints ranking fifth in DVOA against the pass and 20th in yards per attempt. The kicker is the Saints defense has a 10:11 TD:INT ratio and that’s pretty impressive at this point. To Ryan’s credit, he is first in completion rate while pressured but that is linked to sitting 25th in yards per attempt and 30th in air yards per attempt. He’ll just dump it off to the nearest receiver and that’s not going to get it done against New Orleans. 

RB – It was a bit surprising to see the touches go backward for Cordarrelle Patterson on a day when the Falcons were without Calvin Ridley, who we wish nothing but the best as he steps away from the game to deal with his mental health. I have a massive amount of respect for someone making that public because it’s hard to ask for help, and it’s even harder to put it out there for public consumption. Patterson saved his day with a touchdown and he did have 14 touches, which is not something to get too worked up over. The largest issue is it is difficult to run on the Saints with their second-best rushing yards per game allowed and tied for best yards per carry allowed. The DVOA backs that up as they sit second against the rush. Just like we talked about with Robinson, you’re starting to pay for mostly receiving work and he’s not cheap enough to eat a running back spot for that path to points. 

WR – Without Ridley, logic would have told us that Russell Gage would see a big bump and then the Falcons burned that logic to the ground. He played 67% of the snaps but Tajae Sharpe saw the targets in garbage tome with six, and that tied for the team lead. I didn’t even know Sharpe was still kicking around the league in honesty. The problem with that is he’ll likely see some of Marshon Lattimore who has a 50% catch rate allowed and a 21.8 YPR that has been skewed by a couple of big plays against elite receivers. Sharpe is not that, to be sure. Olamide Zaccheaus only played about 40% of the snaps for one target and my initial thought is to just leave this group alone. If Gage stays in the slot, he’ll see Chauncey Gardner-Johnson which is a decent matchup. The trust factor is just zero. 

TE – After Ridley got ruled out, Kyle Pitts seemed primed for a big game and it did not come close to happening. He saw six targets but only brought down two of them with 83% of the snaps. Ridley will be out for some time so Pitts is the defacto number one receiver in this offense. He’s already fourth in routes and deep targets among tight ends, and he’s eighth in yards per route. The unknown is how he handles being the focal point of a good defense (you can’t count the London game against the Jets). In the first sample we had, things did not go well. I don’t think he’ll be a primary target for me. 

D/ST – I would like to build a case for Atlanta but I’m not sure it can be done. They are 30th in pressure rate and total DVOA with only 10 sacks and six turnovers. Even with some questionable quarterback play from the Saints, it’s not an appealing spot. 

Cash – None

GPP – Pitts, Gage, Patterson

Saints 

QB – I never thought I would say this, but I hope Taysom Hill makes it back for this game. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go dry heave in the corner for a second. 

Alright, I’m back, and as gross as it sounds, Hill would be in strong consideration for me this week. I might even be willing to pair him with his running back because Hill is one of the Konami Quarterbacks. His rushing potential makes him a very strong fantasy play. Hill had a four-game stretch last year as the starter and finished as the QB4, 11, 8, and 11 in those four weeks. That was despite throwing just four touchdowns and at only $5,500, you have to give him a long look if he’s active. 

Update- Hill was not able to make it out of concussion protocol so Trevor Siemian will start but I would so much rather play Tyrod.

RB – Alvin Kamara is very likely to be chalk and I’ll be a part of that reason this week in some format or another. The Saints are going to continue to get iffy quarterback play and Kamara will continue to get loaded up with touches, seeing another 22 this past weekend. Sure, Mark Ingram is going to handle 8-10 touches per game but Kamara still had five red-zone carries and Atlanta sits 25th in rushing yards allowed per game, 20th in yards per carry allowed, and 25th in DVOA against the run. 

Additionally, they’ve allowed the third-most receptions and receiving yards among teams with seven games played. This is a smash spot for Kamara and he has no peers among the position this week. He will be the only running back above $8,000 on DK and that will lead the entire field right to him, justifiably so. He did suffer a little in the receiving game when Hill played, but he hasn’t been utilized the same way this season anyway. 

WR – I’m mildly interested in Tre’Quan Smith this week because since he’s been back in the lineup, he has basically tied for the second-most targets behind Marquez Callaway and he has two red-zone targets, second on the team as well. He’s been the most productive Saints receiver for fantasy on minimal targets and a 59% snap share. He’s been kicking into the slot about half the time, which helps him avoid A.J. Terrell. Smith is still cheap enough and past that, I’ll skip this. Callaway leads in targets with 33 and that is 61st in the league. 

TE – The tight ends for the Saints continue to not be utilized and Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman have combined for 31 targets in seven games. 

D/ST – They will likely be a little too expensive for my blood but this is a great spot. They don’t have to deal with the dynamics of Ridley in the passing game and Ryan has faced the 10th highest pressure rate in football. New Orleans has 16 sacks and 13 turnovers, both things we look for in picking defenses. If you love your lineup and they fit, bully for you. I’m just not rebuilding a lineup to make them work and I realistically never will. 

Cash – Kamara, maybe Taysom

GPP – Smith, Ingram, D/ST

Broncos at Cowboys, O/U of 49.5 (Cowboys -10)

Broncos 

QB – Last week was a major flop for Teddy Bridgewater, only managing 12.6 points against a vulnerable Washington defense. The metrics always look fine for him as he’s 12th in yards per attempt, sixth in red-zone completion, and 13th in touchdowns. However, he’s also 30th in deep-ball completion rate and 24th in FPPD. Dallas is an odd mix of metrics because they are seventh in DVOA but have also allowed over 2,000 passing yards. The 11 interceptions are saving them to some extent but I can’t muster up much enthusiasm for Teddy Two Gloves here. Maybe if he has to throw a lot in a negative game script he can get there but that’s about the limit. 

RB – Another week and another 50/50 split for Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. MG3 looks great from the box score because he scored twice but past that, his 13 touches generated just 62 scrimmage yards. Williams had 11 touches for 48 yards and it remains basically impossible to separate them for fantasy. Add in that Dallas is 11th in DVOA against the run and 16th in yards per carry allowed and it’s hard to build a case to play either back. 

WR – It didn’t work out for me last week but I’ll go right back to Jerry Jeudy. Not only did he not suffer any setbacks from the ankle, but he also played over 70% of the snaps. The ball just go spread around so much that it was tough for anyone to have a big game with nobody getting more than four targets. Jeudy has been in the slot for the vast majority and that matches him on Jourdan Lewis who has allowed a 98.6 passer rating and a 1.64 FPPT. 

Courtland Sutton could be someone that gets shied away from because he’s facing Trevon Diggs who is having a big year but when he gives up production, he gets burnt. Diggs is giving up an 18.4 YPR and is 82nd in passer rating given up. That is perfect for Sutton’s game since he is third in air yards share, first in unrealized air yards, and first in deep targets. Sutton is burning Diggs for a long touchdown, as long as Teddy can put the ball on him. 

TE – It will be a tight timeline for Noah Fant to get back from a positive Covid test so we may have a punt option in Albert Okwuegbunam at nearly minimum price. Fant has a 19.6% target share and Okwuegbunam sits at 8.4% so there is plenty of work to go around for tight ends, especially if the number one option is out. Dallas is in the bottom half of the league in receptions and yards allowed to the position on top of that. 

Update – Fant is not expected to be active.

D/ST – As long as Dallas has their starting quarterback in this game, I’m not playing a defense against the Cowboys. 

Cash – Jeudy, Okwuegbunam

GPP – Sutton

Dallas 

QB – By all accounts, Dak Prescott will be back in action this week and that is great news. He’s just flat-out fun to watch, even if you’re not a Cowboys fan. He’s under $7,000 and that is going to be extremely tempting, in part because Denver is 21st in DVOA against the pass and 14th in yards allowed per attempt. Dak is seventh in yards per attempt, third in play-action completion rate, third in deep completion rate, and ninth in FPPD. Dallas is at home in this one and the Broncos defense is not that fearsome, especially since pass rusher Von Miller is now a member of the Rams. 

RB – Denver is 27th in DVOA against the run, which you wouldn’t know by the red number next to Ezekiel Elliot’s name for his matchup. I’ll give them their 12thin yards per carry allowed but with Dallas, the matchup matters less because they are an elite offense when Prescott is playing. Zeke still recorded 20 touches last week and did about as much as could be expected while Minnesota dared Cooper Rush to beat them. Elliott is fifth in red-zone carries among players that have fewer than eight games, so his touchdown equity is always there and the price is still very affordable. 

WR – We may have one more week of just Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb by themselves in the corps because Michael Gallup is likely one more week away. I used “may” in that sentence because Lamb sprained an ankle in practice and is now questionable. That would be a big loss as Lamb is eighth in yards on the season and 13th in yards per route. He would likely see more of Ronald Darby who has only been targeted 15 times but has allowed a 130.1 passer rating. Cooper would see fellow Alabama alumni Patrick Surtain and despite teams trying to pick on the rookie with 50 targets, he’s held his own with a 50% completion rate and 78.8 passer rating. I’d be way more likely to go after Cooper if Lamb is out, but Lamb would be the preferred target if healthy. 

Update – Lamb logged a limited practice and is questionable for he game. If he’s out, Cooper is a smash play in cash and his salary really is crazy low.

TE – I never thought we’d still be talking about Dalton Schultz as an option at near $5,000 but he’s kept on producing. Well, not last week but that was the Cooper Rush game. Schultz is sixth in receptions, seventh in yards and fourth in target rate on top of eighth in points per game. As long as Prescott is back in this game, Schultz is playable but I do prefer Gesicki. 

Update – Blake Jarwin is out and that clears the path even more for Schultz.

D/ST – Dallas is sort of expensive even though they are paying well as far as generating turnovers. My fear in playing them is they only have 12 sacks so if the interceptions stop, what do they have to fall back on? Just as we saw last game, the floor is fairly low. 

Cash – Dak, Zeke, Lamb, Schultz

GPP – Cooper

Patriots at Panthers, O/U of 41 (Patriots -3.5)

Patriots 

QB – I can’t help but think if the Patriots get Mac Jones some real weapons that this kid could be a fantasy force, as much as a non-entity in rushing yards can be at the position. However, those players aren’t going to get there before Sunday so Jones is still a very bland option. Carolina is sixth in DVOA against the pass and third in yards allowed per attempt, which is an issue right there. Jones has managed to claw his way to eighth in yards and he leads the league in accuracy rating, but the FPPD is 28th in large part because he’s only thrown nine touchdowns on the year. The Panthers have allowed the fewest yards passing of any team that has played seven games so this doesn’t seem like a great mix for Jones. 

RB – We’ve wanted to be careful with the matchups that we play Damien Harris in and this spot doesn’t exactly leap off the page at first. Carolina is 19th in DVOA, and they also surrender 4.4 yards per carry which is 22nd on the season. What’s propping them up is they’ve only allowed three rushing touchdowns to the position and that is the second-fewest. It’s always a little tough to play Harris when he’s over $6,000 because he has no role in the passing game with a target share of 4.3%. In honesty, I would rather take the shot at Gaskin for $200 cheaper. 

WR – When you’re not fired up about the quarterback, it’s a little harder to get there for a receiver unless he has some elite metrics. Jakobi Meyers is not that. He splits his snaps about half and half between the slot and outside so the matchup is less important, but remember that the Panthers now have Stephon Gilmore as well. Meyers is eighth in receptions so that keeps in the running on DK but he’s also 30th in yards, hasn’t scored since college, and isn’t even in the top 20 in target share. 

TE – It remains pretty difficult to trust either Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith. Henry only saw three targets last week and while they both have a target share above 11%, it’s just not translating into much production. Henry is 14th in points per game and 11th in receptions and yards. It’s a pretty unspectacular play and the Panthers have been good against the tight end. In this range, we have better options. 

D/ST – I’m casting aside the Patriots unit quickly because IF I were to pay up, I’d just play the Bills. New England creates the splash plays we love with 13 turnovers forced and 18 sacks to go along with being 11th in total DVOA. There’s just not a strong case to play them over Buffalo in that range. It would be a little closer if the Panthers have to play the backup quarterback. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Meyers, D/ST, Henry 

Panthers 

QB – It looks like P.J. Walker is going to be in line to start this game unless something changes with Sam Darnold. Walker has all of 71 attempts at the NFL level, and that’s not ideal going up against Bill Belichick and the 10th best DVOA defense against the pass. They also have a 12:10 TD: INT ratio and it will be an uphill climb for Walker to find any success here. I will steer clear of the passing game in this one. 

Update – Darnold is still questionable but either way, I’m not heading here.

RB – Chubba Hubbard is in a similar boat as Harris in that the targets have not been there in the way we thought they would be without Christian McCaffrey. Now, CMC might practice this week but we’ve been down this road already once this season. I’ll believe he’s active at 11:30 on Sunday or if he’s not on the report at all come Friday. If he’s out, Hubbard is getting the rushing work with 24 carries last week but Ameer Abdullah started to carve out a role with eight rushes and five targets. I’m not buying into playing him at this juncture but it just takes more away from Hubbard as far as receiving work. New England is 17th in DVOA against the run and has allowed and is seventh in yards allowed among teams with eight games played. 

Update – Christian McCaffrey now might play in this one but they still don’t even know and it’s Friday night. To me, that wouldn’t leave me with much confidence that he makes it back.

WR – It’s D.J. Moore or bust here…at least that’s what logic would tell us. I’m going to hate myself but *sighs* Robby Anderson could make some sense. I know, I’m sick of hearing it too. I’m not going to list his metrics again. He’s having one of the worst seasons with the amount of volume he sees in history. However, Belichick always works to take away the top option. That is unequivocally Moore, who is top-eight in air yards, yards, receptions, routes, and targets. If they force Moore from the game, all that work has to go somewhere. Anderson is next up, although Terrace Marshall cleared concussion protocol this week and could see extra targets as well. Either way, I’m not chasing Moore this week. 

TE – Both Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble are under 7% for their target share, which doesn’t do anything for us. 

D/ST – The Panthers look like one of the stronger units on the slate with their salary included. They are top-five in pressure rate, have the fourth-most sacks at 21, are eighth in total DVOA, and have forced eight turnovers. This New England offense is not one to fear and they shouldn’t be $2,600. 

Cash – D/ST

GPP – Anderson, Moore, Hubbard, Marshall 

Vikings at Ravens, O/U of 50 (Ravens -6)

Vikings 

QB – I guess the good news for Kirk Cousins is that he’s not in primetime this week? He was roasted by about everyone last week for his play against the Cowboys and the 13.2 fantasy points don’t exactly bring you much comfort. After a strong start, the bottom has mostly fallen out for Cousins with three of his past four games scoring under 15 DK. He does have one over 31 DK in that span as well, but playing in Baltimore isn’t likely to snap him out of the funk. They are 23rd in DVOA and 28th in yards allowed per attempt, but Cousins is 20th in yards per attempt, 30th in accuracy rating, 19th in FPPD, and 19th in red-zone attempts. That’s not a super appealing array of metrics. 

RB – It has been kind of a bizarre season for Dalvin Cook. He’s only played five games and has only cleared 22 DK points once with two games under 10 DK. Granted, one of those games was injury-related but his target share has come down under 11%. That’s not helping the floor for Cook but Baltimore is 15th in DVOA against the run. The potential is always there but I do wish he had more receiving work coming to him. The last we saw Baltimore’s defense they were getting walked all over the field by the Bengals but are coming off a bye. The high-end of the backs aren’t that great this week so Cook is in play, but I’m not in love with him or this Minnesota offense at this point. 

WR – Justin Jefferson is having somewhat of a quieter season than some thought but he’s still in the top 20 in receptions, yards, air yards, routes, and targets. He hasn’t been bad by any stretch and faces off against Marlon Humphrey, who has a 2.05 FPPT and an 18.8 YPR. There is the big-play ability for Jefferson if Cousins can actually find him. The next time I get Adam Thielen right could be the first time but we sort of know what he is – touchdown or bust. In seven games, Thielen has scored in five of them and cleared at least 15 DK. In the two he didn’t find the paint, he hasn’t hit eight DK. The matchup against Anthony Averett is not an easy one with a 1.42 FPPT and he always feels pricey to me. 

TE – Ty Conklin is always in play to some extent because he does have a 14.1% target share and is third in red-zone share. Conklin is in the top 12 in receptions, yards, routes, and targets. He’s also $1,000 less than Henry from New England and that helps the cause because even 10-12 DK points get you to what you need. Just remember that Baltimore giving up production is skewed by having faced some of the most elite tight ends in the league. 

D/ST – I have no real reason to attack a Ravens offense coming off a bye week and getting healthier. We’ll see if something changes during the week but as of now, this would be a defense that has least has a chance to go into the negatives. They are fourth in DVOA and The Ravens have allowed 21 sacks, so I’ll give them that. Still, you aren’t going to feel good here. You’d have to hope they get to Jackson a bunch of times. 

Cash – Jefferson, Cook

GPP – Thielen, Cousins, Conklin 

Ravens 

QB – Minnesota has been surprisingly good against the pass as they sit third in DVOA and that is notable. They are also 21st in yards allowed per attempt and Lamar Jackson is fifth in both yards per attempt and air yards, a nice mix of attacking the defense. Even with his bye week, he’s still second in deep attempts and he’s third in FPPD, to go along with third in points per game. Jackson and the Ravens offense should be healthier coming out of the bye week and he’s got some weapons to put up a big game, let alone his rushing prowess. This is a strong bounce-back spot after a down game in Week 7. 

RB – There’s a chance that Latavius Murray could be back after their bye week and let’s all hope so because watching Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell is not super fun. Granted, Murray isn’t a world-beater either but he’s still better than the other two options. Minnesota is only 20th in DVOA and the Baltimore offense is generally difficult to defend with Lamar running around. There is not a lot of receiving upside with Murray but $5,500 is very affordable on this slate. If he gets closer to 12-14 carries, that could be all you need for the matchup. 

Update – Murray is doubtful for this one but in all honesty, instead of turning to the run game with Freeman and Bell, I’d rather hope for the ceiling game from Jackson and the passing game.

WR – This is going to be a difficult situation to get ahold of every week. Sammy Watkins is back at practice and that makes just the receivers a three-headed monster with him, Marquise Brown, and Rashod Bateman. The Ravens are only 21st in attempts and have a pretty darn good tight end as well, so the ceiling for any of these guys is depressed when all are active. Brown is still going to be the lead dog with a top-10 mark in air yards and deep targets, but he was already 23rd in targets overall. Watkins has just a 20% target share on the year while Bateman has been at 17.7%. Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander are both over a 1.50 FPP, but guessing right on a limited passing game is going to be frustrating. The volume is simply not there to support all three PLUS the next man on our list.

Update – Bateman popped onto the injury report on Friday, not generally a great sign. If he is out, I’ll have a whole lot of Hollywood Brown with the starting running back out on top of it.  

TE – One of the reasons that I’m not as excited to play Pitts is Mark Andrews is cheaper by $400. The game before the bye week was the lone game under double-digit DK points and sometimes you’re just going to have a down game. He’s sixth in air yards share, second in yards, fourth in receptions, third in target share, and second in yards per route. The Vikings have yet to allow a touchdown to the position but they have faced a parade of sub-par options. Andrews is easily the best tight end they’ve played all season and Andrews has every chance to notch the first score against them. 

D/ST – The Ravens are reasonably priced and they do have a top-eight pressure rate on the season. The DVOA is poor at 24th and Cousins has only taken 10 sacks but he’s faced the fifth-most pressure. Something has to give at some point. They’re on the table but I would stop short of saying they’re a primary target. 

Cash – Jackson, Andrews

GPP – Murray, Brown, Bateman, Watkins 

Browns at Bengals, O/U of 47 (Bengals -2.5)

Browns

QB – It’s getting late into the season to expect Baker Mayfield to be something different than he is, which is nothing special. He’s 22nd in red-zone attempts, 26th in accuracy rating, 25th in FPPD, 26th in points per game, and has all of six passing touchdowns. Cincinnati is 13th in DVOA against the pass and ninth in yards allowed per attempt, and Mayfield is playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder. I’m not super interested in him even at the cheap pricing. We can get exposure to this game in other facets. 

RB – Did Nick Chubb do something to the Browns coaching staff? Kareem Hunt is out but Chubb was still out-carried in the red-zone by De’Ernest Johnson, and guess who got the score? It wasn’t Chubb. He also didn’t see any more targets with just one so while I do really love this spot, we need to be careful of the floor. We saw it again last week with under eight DK points even though he got 17 touches. If Johnson is in the Hunt role since he got three targets, he could be a crazy deep-field GPP option. The Bengals have bled production in the passing game and have allowed the most receptions to backs in the league. They are also 10th in DVOA against the run so if they can contain Chubb, Johnson could see some work. 

Update – OL Jack Conklin is out, which is a blow to this running game.

WR – Fare thee well, Odell Beckham. The Browns hardly knew you. With the news that OBJ is basically getting paid to stay home, Jarvis Landry and Donovan Peoples-Jones are going to be primed for larger roles. Landry sees the least amount of change in my eyes and already had a target share of 22.8% and an aDOT of 8.2-yards. He’s still playing a good chunk of snaps in the slot and that leaves him on Mike Hilton who has allowed a 74.4% catch rate through 39 targets. Peoples-Jones has a 15.9-yard aDOT and that likely doesn’t change too much if he steps into the Beckham role. He doesn’t look like anything crazy special and with the tight ends being involved, this is another low-volume passing attack. They only run 30 passing plays per game and Landry is going to surely lead in targets, leaving not much for Peoples-Jones or even Rashard Higgins. 

TE – Life is probably easier for the passing game without Beckham, but let’s not forget that all of the tight ends are splitting snaps and targets. None of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant are over 24 targets and we’re into Week 9, so that’s not great. When we’re talking about a three-headed monster at the tight end spot, I’m not very interested. 

D/ST – Cleveland faces a tough offense but man are they cheap. They are just 19th in DVOA but they also carry a pressure rate over 27.5% and have 22 sacks, a top-five mark in the league. Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most sacks on the season along with a 23.4% pressure rate. To top that off, only one team has more interceptions thrown than the Bengals. 

Cash – Landry, D/ST

GPP – Chubb, Peoples-Jones, Johnson, Baker

Bengals

QB – It seems like Joe Burrow is just continuing to get better and even at just 22nd in attempts, he’s sixth in yards and third in yards per attempt. Burrow is also eighth in FPPD, third in touchdowns and seventh in deep completion rate. Cleveland is 25th in DVOA against the pass and 12th in yards per attempt allowed. If the offensive line can give him time, Burrow is on the board here and the clearly superior option on paper in this game. He’s back under $7,000 which is more comfortable for a player with virtually no rushing upside. 

RB – Joe Mixon continues to find ways to get touches and this past week he had 18 total. He had two touchdowns and played nearly 80% of the snaps, so his salary is very warranted. He’s still second in the league in carries and his target share is 8.7% which isn’t great, but it helps a little bit. The catch is Cleveland has been excellent against the run as they are tied for the lowest yards per carry allowed and they sit third in DVOA against the run. Knowing that Mixon doesn’t have a ton of receiving work to fall back on does raise some concerns. It’s a fair salary but this may not be the spot to pay up for him. 

WR – This trio continues to be mostly a duo when they are all active. For the most part, Tyler Boyd has taken a backseat when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played with last week being the one weird exception. Chase proved he’s not just a deep threat with a two-yard score last week and still saw nine targets, so I’ll have no issues playing him. He’s still the alpha and top 10 in air yards and yards total. Denzel Ward has only been targeted 28 times but has allowed a 121.7 passer rating and a 2.01 FPPT through those targets. Higgins would see more of Greg Newsome who has been targeted just 17 times and allowed a 109.9 passer rating. Even with Boyd in the slot, the individual matchup is nothing to fear as Troy Hill has allowed a 72.7% catch rate. It’s only 11 targets but these corners have been just alright and not much more. 

TE – C.J. Uzomah continues to either break the slate or not hit 10 DK points and there’s not much in between. I’m continuing to not play him since his target share is just 9.5% and his red-zone share is only 3.7%. Those just aren’t stable metrics, nor are his 23 total targets (29th) and 289 yards (14th). He’s scored five times, tied for most among tight ends and that is the only thing keeping him afloat. 

D/ST – Cincy is 13th in DVOA and has a solid pressure rate to go with their 21 sacks but I’m not convinced I love them here. I’d likely just play the Browns or come up a little bit. The Bengals struggled with the Jets offense and the Browns could be rid of a lot of pressure that was the OBJ situation. 

Cash – Chase, Higgins

GPP – Burrow, Boyd, Mixon

Raiders at Giants, O/U of 46 (Raiders -3.5)

Raiders

QB – On paper, Derek Carr doesn’t look like the worst option as he’s sixth in true completion rate, eighth in deep completion rate, sixth in yards per attempt, and fifth in yards. The offense will also look very different than the last time we saw it and it’s hard to say exactly how this offense functions with the absence. New York is 11th in DVOA so the matchup is surprisingly a little tough. They are also 13th in yards allowed per attempt so this isn’t the strongest spot on the board.

RB – This is a very strong spot for Josh Jacobs, even though the price is a bit high at first look. It has been a tough year for Jacobs with injuries but he still leads the team in red-zone rush attempts and carries, despite playing five to seven for Kenyan Drake. We don’t think of him having receiving upside but his target share is 9% and that’s higher than Mixon. New York is 21st in DVOA and yards per carry allowed, meaning there should be room for Jacobs to produce. Only four teams have given up more rushing yards against backs and they have seen the fifth-most carries with five touchdowns allowed. 

WR – This is a horrible subject to write on. Henry Ruggs is no longer with the Raiders as he was in a drunk driving accident that left a victim dead. This isn’t the place to get too far into it, but I’ll just quickly say that if you’re reading this – please, please just get an Uber. It’s never worth it and the damage you could do is irreversible. We’re going to discuss what this passing game looks like without Ruggs, but there are obviously much more important issues at play here. Thoughts and prayers are with the victim’s family who had their world ripped apart. 

With Ruggs off the field, it really becomes a question of who exactly stretches the field for this offense. It’s a big reason I’m a little hesitant of Carr in this game. Hunter Renfrow jumps off the page a little bit with a 20.1% target share and now a 14.2% share is out of the offense. Perhaps the Raiders finally play Bryan Edwards and actually target him now instead of the 11.8% share he’s got so far. If that’s the case, Renfrow can still be mostly in the slot and against Darnay Holmes. He’s only allowed a 44.4% catch rate across 18 total targets to this point as a part-time player. Edwards would likely see James Bradberry who has gotten shredded by about every receiver he’s faced. 

TE – We’ve been talking all year about how the targets have been more evenly distributed among the Raiders after Week 1 and Darren Waller only has a 20.2% share since that point. That likely changes this week since Ruggs had a 15.4% target share and 28.3% of the air yards share, which both need to be filled. Waller is going to be one of the prime candidates to do so and is sixth in routes while sitting third in unrealized air yards. With the changes in the Vegas offense, I’m more interested in Waller than I have been in recent weeks. 

D/ST – The Raiders check the boxes for a defense under $3,000. They have 18 sacks and a top-six pressure rate, which is a great start. The nine takeaways aren’t special but the opposition could help with that. The DVOA is average at 15th and that is good enough for this matchup. 

Cash – Renfrow, Waller

GPP – Jacobs, Carr, Edwards, D/ST 

Giants 

QB – Daniel Jones suckered me in on a showdown last week but I’m not falling for that again. The past four games have looked a lot more like the rest of the career for Jones, with five turnovers against just three touchdowns. To be fair, his weapons in this offense have been massively smacked by injuries. That isn’t his fault at all but it doesn’t change the fact of wanting to play him in this spot. He’s only 20th in FPPD, 17th in points per game, and is just 16th in red-zone attempts. Vegas is 19th in DVOA against the pass but they can get pressure and jones is 13th in completion rate under pressure. 

RB – Devontae Booker has been pretty productive since Saquon Barkley has been injured, scoring at least 10.9 DK points in each game. He’s been the guy with at least 16 touches in every game as well so the price isn’t all that bad. Vegas is 13th in DVOA against the run and they’ve given up almost 1,000 scrimmage yards in seven games with nine touchdowns allowed. If Barkley remains out, Booker is well in play at this point. Since the Dallas game when Barkley left early, Booker has an 11.3% target share and has played 83.3% of the snaps from that game forward. 

WR – It has been the case for a while but we need clarity on Friday. Sterling Shepard is already doubtful and will reportedly miss multiple weeks. Kenny Golloday and Kadarius Toney were limited today, so they both at least have a window to make it back for this one. It’s also possible that neither one does and Darius Slayton is the WR1 in the offense. That would not be ideal. 

Update – Shepard is officially out, as expected. Toney has practiced all week and is expected to play, in which case I’m moderately excited for him. He’s been in the slot around 37% of the time and if Golladay is back (he is questionable and did practice this week), Toney could jus live in the slot in this game. Nate Hobbs has played a good deal of slot for the Raiders and has played it well, only being targeted 17 times. However, he has a 1.52 FPPT across those targets.

TE – I’m saying this while rolling my eyes but Evan Engram is at least worth discussing. The Giants receiving options continue to be a M*A*S*H unit and Engram is one of the only ones left standing. My largest issue is the price because even last week, he only saw four targets and barely cracked 10 DK points even with a touchdown. We need to see who is actually available this week but he’s at least on the radar and Vegas has allowed the ninth-most yards and four scores. 

D/ST – They really fall into no man’s land for me salary-wise. The pressure rate is under 20% although they do have 18 sacks, and the DVOA is 14th. The Raiders are outside of the top 12 in pressure rate allowed and sacks, so it’s not a smash spot. It’s truthfully hard to gauge how the Raiders play in this spot and I can’t pretend to know. If the focus isn’t there for obvious and understandable reasons, New York has potential. 

Cash – Booker, Toney

GPP – Slayton, Golladay

Chargers at Eagles, O/U of 49 (Chargers -2)

Chargers 

QB – I’d like to buy-low into Justin Herbert but the price didn’t really move that much for a player that has scored 12, 15, and had a bye week in the past three weeks. The shine has come off him a little bit but even with the struggles, he’s still 10th in yards, fifth in attempts, ninth in red-zone attempts, 13th in FPPD, and eighth in touchdowns. Philly is 12th in DVOA and 11th in yards allowed per attempt so this is not a cakewalk by any stretch. I think the matchup combined with the recent play could make Herbert a dynamite GPP option, but nothing more. 

RB – So much for Austin Ekeler being bothered by a hip injury. He played 75% of the snaps and carried the ball 11 times with a total of 10 targets with six receptions. Most importantly, he had another four red-zone carries and only two other running backs have more targets than Ekeler on the year. The volume is not safer from many other players and the matchup is pristine. Philly is 22nd in DVOA against the run and they have allowed the second-most receptions against backs, not to mention over 1,300 scrimmage yards and nine scores. If you wound up building around Kamara and Ekeler, that could be a great start for a cash lineup. 

WR – Mike Williams was mostly held in check last week as suspected and he doesn’t get a much easier matchup this week either. Darius Slay is having a strong year with just a 58.3% catch rate and a 1.26 FPPT across 36 targets. Williams still has the air yards share lead and a 22.3% target share, along with the most end-zone targets on the team. His past two slow games have coincided with a bit of a knee injury and Herbert’s slow play. Going back to him is a GPP move only and I like Keenan Allen better again this week. Allen is eighth in receptions, 12th in routes, and 10th in targets. He leads the team in red-zone targets with 11 and is playing a good deal in the slot so his matchup is never as important because he moves around. 

TE – Philly has had issues all year with the tight end position and Jared Cook is next in line. They have allowed the most receptions and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed, while Cook is an important cog for the Charger offense. He’s got the sixth-highest slot rate among the position along with 10th in targets. The production has been flighty game to game, but this is a great spot for Cook to pay off a relatively cheap price. 

D/ST – I will have none of the Chargers defense. Until they can stop the run to any extent, it’s a massive blind spot for them. Running the ball successfully lessens the chances for splash plays and Philly can run the ball when they choose to. 

Cash – Ekeler, Allen

GPP – Herbert, Williams, Cook

Eagles 

QB – Of course the day the Eagles offense finally goes off, it had nothing to do with Jalen Hurts after weeks of them not doing a ton, and Hurts is a fantasy monster. The Chargers are two separate defenses rolled into one unit because they are excellent against the pass in DVOA at fourth. It’s the other facet of the game they struggle in. Hurts does have a little more rushing upside than normal, but his passing floor might be lower than last week. He’s still 19th in yards, 21st in yards per attempt, 31st in true completion rate, and 17th in touchdowns. Since he’s a Konami Code, he’s always in play. 

RB – Call me what you will but I’m ready to go right back to Boston Scott. The Chargers are incapable of stopping the run and are dead last in yards per carry allowed, DVOA, and 31st in rushing yards allowed to the backs. They’ve also had one fewer game so, among teams with seven games played, LA has allowed almost 200 yards more than the next team (Vikings). Scott got all of the run when the game was close on Sunday and then split work with Jordan Howard as the game wore on. Scott legitimately took every carry in the first quarter so, for me, he is still the primary target in the backfield. Kenneth Gainwell didn’t get his touches until the game was well out of hand and he still couldn’t get much going. Scott is still very affordable and the matchup couldn’t get much better. 

WR – I can’t express how little I want to do with DeVonta Smith this week (which means 100/2 game is imminent) against this talented Chargers corner trio. All of Michael Davis, Chris Harris, and Asante Samuel Jr. have had success this season and although the numbers for Samuel and Harris are eroding a little as the season goes, Davis will be the primary corner on Smith and his FPPT is just 1.51. Smith is the one in the offense but he’s also outside the top 25 in yards, receptions, targets, and he’s 49th in points per game. That is not someone I want to pay $5,200 for in any way. He’s talented and can fly so maybe he breaks a long play but that almost has to be what you bank on with just one touchdown this year. 

Update – The matchup for Smith has changed significantly, as Davis and Samuel are both out. It’s still hard to use the word trust with Hurts, but it’s a massive improvement for Smith and I’m far more apt to include him in game stacks especially.

TE – It’s hard to trust any pass catcher for Philly, but Dallas Goedert is the highest on that list. In the past two weeks without Zach Ertz, Goedert is tied for the lead in targets at 12 and has scored the most fantasy points of any pass-catcher. Despite the Chargers boasting strong safety play, they have given up the fifth-most yards and only the Ravens have allowed more with seven games played. The price is super appealing and he should be over $5,000 for the rest of the year. 

D/ST – I prefer other punt spots but Philly could be a GPP style play. The Chargers have scuffled lately and the Eagles are top 12 in DVOA against the pass. That could give this offense some issues and Herbert has been dreadful in the past couple of games. With a pressure rate over 25%, that could be enough to cause issues. 

Cash – Scott, Hurts, Goedert

GPP – D/ST, Smith 

Packers at Chiefs, O/U of 47.5 (Chiefs -7.5)

Packers 

QB – Aaron Rodgers is out for this game and he gives way to Jordan Love, who sits at just $4,400 on DK. The easy approach is to just ignore him with Tyrod sitting at $600 more and having an actual track record to fall back on. It will be interesting to see how the field treats Love because you can fit a LOT of skill players into the lineup with a $4,400 quarterback and a punt defense. Love is a total unknown at the NFL level with just seven pass attempts in his career. We know that the Chiefs are a great matchup as they sit 30th in DVOA against the pass but it seems an unnecessary risk at this point. Green Bay could really turn the clock back for smash-mouth football in this game. 

RB – I’m not expecting Aaron Jones to get 22 touches including seven receptions again since the Packers should be healthier. Still, this is an amazing spot for Jones since the Chiefs have allowed over 1,000 scrimmage yards and are 29th in DVOA against the run. He’s also still accumulating the majority of the carries on the team and has 28 red-zone carries to 10 for A.J. Dillon. Jones is also tied for the lead in red-zone targets so if the touchdowns go his way, he could be in for a monster day. I’ll be fascinated to see what happens with ownership between Jones, Kamara, and Ekeler. Oh, we also have a stud making his return to the lineup in this next spot that is also in a smash spot. 

Update – This was written before Rodgers was ruled out. Aaron Jones is going to maul this Chiefs squad and is my number one target out of the offense. I like Dillon a lot more now too because Green Bay is going to try and pull the same game plan as last week when Dillon had 16 carries. 

WR – Davante Adams appears to be on track to start this week and he could be quite the GPP play. Almost everyone will (justifiably) shy away from Adams at this salary with Love at quarterback. It’s not to say Adams isn’t one of the most gifted players in the league but his timing with Rodgers is a big reason why they are both excellent. That can’t be replaced by Love, plain and simple. Having said all of that, Adams is such a large portion of the Packers passing game it’s not like love is going to ignore him either. Adams is third in receptions, fourth in yards, first in yards per route, and second in target rate. The Chiefs don’t have any reasonably strong members of the secondary past Tyrann Mathieu. If GB can stay in this, it’s going to be because of Jones and Adams. I would not be looking at anyone other than Adams past GPP at this juncture. 

TE – With Love playing and Robert Tonyan out for the year, it’s easy to skip over Marcedes Lewis at $2,900. 

D/ST – I’m getting more tempted every passing week to play the defense against the Chiefs, but the loss of Rodgers is so massive that I won’t take the risks. The Packers defense could be on the field a lot and put in bad field position. They’re not even super cheap. 

Cash – None

GPP – Jones, Dillon, Love, Adams 

Chiefs 

QB – If everyone is just jumping off the train with Patrick Mahomes after two poor fantasy games, count me among the people that will play him a lot. Look, things aren’t great in KC right now and the offense has been poor lately. Don’t let that cloud the fact that Mahomes is still second in attempts, third in yards, eighth in air yards, fifth in red-zone attempts, fourth in touchdowns, and 12th in FPPD. If that’s a “bad” season, sign me up. He’s under $8,000 and Green Bay is just 18th in DVOA against the pass. I’m not even buying he may not have a ceiling because they’re a heavy favorite now. If KC gets the offense on track, they’re not calling off the dogs until very late. 

RB – He may have only played 19.8% of the snaps but Derrick Gore sure made an impression. He turned his 11 carries into 48 rushing yards and a score and he really looked like he had some juice. Darrel Williams had 13 carries and six targets, generating 110 scrimmage yards. Six of 11 carries for Gore came in the red zone, compared to just two for Williams. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not back yet and the Packers are 29th in yards per carry allowed, 30th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed seven scores. Williams is the much safer play but Gore has my interest in GPP settings to afford other players. 

WR – Struggles with the offense or not, Tyreek Hill at $7,900 is glaring. It was made worse by his 18 targets on Monday night after the slate was released. He is sixth in routes, first in receptions, fifth in yards, fourth in completed air yards, and eighth in deep targets. The Packers have a corner group made up of rookie Eric Stokes, Kevin King, and Rasul Douglas who was sitting on his couch about a month ago. King especially has always struggled with speed receivers and he’s averaging 18.8 yards per reception. Mecole Hardman is under a 15% target share but is still a clear third in the pecking order and has plenty of chances against this corner group as well. 

TE – One of these games, Travis Kelce is going to go absolutely bonkers and yet…I can’t say when that’s going to be. He hasn’t been over 20 DK since Week 2 and this offense as a whole just isn’t passing the eye test right now. They’re struggling mightily and Kelce took the brunt of it Monday night. He turned in one of his worst games of the season and that makes five games straight he’s been under 18 DK. Al the metrics still look great with the most routes, targets, air yards, receptions, and yards. It mostly speaks to how high Kelce’s bar is and $7,000 is low for him in general. As I said, he’s going to break a slate. It’s just a matter of when and how confident you feel. 

D/ST – I suppose that the Chiefs defense could be chalky now since they are priced for Rodgers. There are not a ton of metrics to support that with just 11 sacks, eight takeaways, and 31st in total DVOA. Still, Love is a total unknown at this point in Arrowhead. 

Cash – Hill, Kelce

GPP – Mahomes, Williams, Gore

Cardinals at 49ers, O/U of 45 (49ers -2)

Cardinals 

QB – I still think Kyler Murray plays but he’s dealing with an ankle injury and I’m not happy to hear that. His big plays are part of his appeal and if his ankle is bothering him, that’s going to make life really difficult. San Francisco is only 22nd in DVOA against the pass and Murray has a massive ceiling as he’s sixth in FPPD. However, Mahomes has a massive ceiling as well for $100 less. Let’s talk about this a little more on Friday when we see if he practiced at all. 

Update – Kyler has not practiced all week and is questionable, but is not expected to play. It’s very easy to avoid the vast majority of this offense.

RB – At the same price, I’ll continue to keep playing Chase Edmonds over James Conner since Edmonds has the passing work. Conner has just five targets all season whole Edmonds is at a 15.1% target share. Conner has a 20-11 advantage in red-zone carries but he can’t continue to just score touchdowns and not do much else. The 49ers are 7th against the run in DVOA and have only allowed 583 rushing yards against backs through seven games. I don’t think either is a primary target on the slate. 

WR – This room could wind up being a mess. DeAndre Hopkins is dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him from a portion of the last game. He came back but he was clearly not right so this is a real concern at this point. On top of that, A.J. Green is on the Covid list but is NOT ruled out yet. Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk would both step into major roles but we need updates here. Losing Hopkins who has a 20% target share and Green who has a 17.6% target share would be a big deal. They have the first and second most targets on the team. 

Update – Hopkins is the same case as Kyler, questionable but not expected to play. Green will not be back for this game either, so the receivers are down to Kirk and Moore. The latter has the most of my attention because his aDOT has been so low all year. If Colt McCoy is indeed the starter, the emphasis will have to be on quick passes and Moore can break a big one with the ball in his hands.

TE – Zach Ertz is far too expensive in my eyes. He’s seen nine total targets in Arizona and has seven receptions for 108 yards, but we’re getting close to $5,000. Why would we view him as a better play than Gesicki or Goedert? He’s up to 60% of the snaps but that’s still significantly behind those other two in his price range. Additionally, the ball gets spread around so much in the Arizona offense that it doesn’t make sense to pay this salary, although he will be needed more now.

D/ST – Arizona still has a pressure rate of nearly 26% and 20 sacks, not to mention 14 takeaways. They are also second in DVOA behind only Buffalo but the 49ers only have allowed an 18.9% pressure rate. Arizona is fine for the salary although San Fran is getting healthy. 

Cash – None if Kyler is out

GPP – Moore, Edmonds, Kirk, Ertz

49ers 

QB – If I’m going to miss a Jimmy Garoppolo ceiling game because he rushed for two touchdowns and threw an 83-yard pass that accounted for 25% of his yardage, I’ll sleep perfectly fine at night. The big pass got him the 300-yard bonus and with two rushing scores, those three plays were worth roughly 18 of his 30 DK points. I know, playing the “well, if you take away this play” game is not wise in general. It’s notable when the plays are far outside a normal outcome for a player. Arizona is second in DVOA against the pass and yards allowed per attempt while Jimmy G is just 14th in FPPD. 

RB – Eli Mitchell continues to dominate when he’s healthy but you can’t help but feel that comes to an end at some point with literally zero targets. He only has four all season and has not seen a single one in the past two games, which really lowers the floor. Can he continue to rip off over six yards per carry? He better at this salary because if he hadn’t reached the 100-yard bonus and scored in the past two, the game logs don’t look nearly as appealing. Arizona is ninth against the run for DVOA but they also allow the second-highest yards per carry on the year. Only allowing two touchdowns on the ground has helped make them look much better against backs, so Mitchell is a GPP play only for me. 

WR – It’s all Deebo Samuel, all the time. We’re only half-joking because Brandon Aiyuk had one of his best games as far as involvement. That led to about 87% of the snaps and seven targets for 10.5 DK points. Samuel once again went nuts for 26 DK and didn’t even score a touchdown. Byron Murphy should see the most of Samuel and has had a good season, with a 56.1% catch rate and a 99.1 passer rating. That’s not enough to scare me off Deebo who is second in yards, 11th in receptions, sixth in targets, and first in target share. 

Update – Deebo is looking like he could legitimately be questionable for this game and is rending towards missing. If Aiyuk can’t get anything done in that case, he never will.

TE – By all accounts, George Kittle is back and would be cheap. I’m not casting him aside at $5,200 but he’s coming off yet another injury and he wasn’t a huge part of the passing game as it was. He was in a route 71.5% of the time, which is 11th. The 21.5% target share isn’t bad per se, but not what you’re hoping for with an elite tight end. For context, Kittle is running around 25 routes per game. Kelce is at 35 and Waller is at 34. That’s a stark difference. Even Gesicki is at 30. I’m not wholly convinced Kittle is a smash play even at the salary. 

Update – Kittle will be active for Week 9 and now may have a bigger role than anticipated right off the bat.

D/ST – I am kind of willing to take a shot because the Cards are banged up and missing pieces, but the pressure rate is only 22.6% with 16 sacks. Even more notable are the five takeaways through seven games, which limits the appeal here. 

Cash – Deebo

GPP – Mitchell, Kittle, Aiyuk and the latter two can be cash plays if Deebo is out

Cash Core Four

Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Jarvis Landry, Marquise Brown

Sammy Watkins is now out and Brown has moved to one of the top projected WR on the slate as far as rostership.

GPP Core Four

Alvin Kamara, Tyrod Taylor, Brandin Cooks, Mike Gesicki

This quartet still allows me a good chunk of the Eagles game and pairs it with Kamara, who I am shocked is barely at 10% projected rostership.

Stacks

Chargers/Eagles – Ekeler, Allen, Herbert, Williams, Cook – Run Backs – Scott, Smith, Goedert, Hurts

Vikings/Ravens – Jackson, Brown, Andrews, Bateman, Watkins – Run Backs – Jefferson, Cook, Thielen

Chiefs/Packers – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Williams, Gore – Run Backs – Jones, Adams, Dillon

Bills Stacks – Allen, Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, Moss – Not forcing a run back

Browns/Bengals – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Mixon – Run Backs – Landry, Chubb, Johnson, Baker

Texans/Dolphins – Tyrod, Cooks, Jordan, Collins Run Backs – Waddle, Gesicki, Gaskin, Tua

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.