NFL DFS

We started our 2023 NFL Division previews last week by looking at the betting values in the AFC East. Today we turn the page to the AFC North which is similarly home to several teams with high expectations. There is one perennial favorite who is the 2-time defending champ (Bengals), one team with all expectations hinged on an oft-injured QB (Ravens), a team with a highly paid QB that is looking for a rebound (Watson), and a team with a young QB that still needs to prove he’s the franchise player (Steelers). If that sounds familiar to the AFC East then you’re right. These are the two divisions that will likely produce the most Wild Card teams in the AFC.

One thing for sure about the North, these teams don’t like each other. And when they all have competitive teams such as in 2023, it’s going to make for some can’t miss football. So let’s dive right in and give you insight into where we see value in the AFC North.

Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +450 DraftKings

I see a lot of optimism for the Pittsburgh Steelers in several preseason predictions. The market and internet seem to be bullish on a team that finished 2022 strong to avoid Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. The hope is that 2nd-year QB Kenny Pickett will only get better especially, knowing the starting role is his. And they added several offensive linemen, through the draft (Broderick Jones) and free agency (Isaac Seumalo & Nate Herbig), to hopefully improve a rushing offense that was 16th in yards but 25th in yards per carry.

But my concern is in the passing game as they had the least TD’s thrown (12) and the 5th lowest yard per attempt (6.4) in the league. Some of that can be contributed to a rookie QB but it is also due to a lack of game-breakers.

Najee Harris is a hard-nosed running back but doesn’t have breakaway speed. The one WR added in free agency is Allen Robinson. Who at 29 years old is coming off a terrible season with the Rams (and is a possession WR). Yes, they still have Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. But those two receivers they ended up 29th and 38th respectively in receiving yards in 2022. More importantly, the pair was 143rd and 163rd in catch percentage, with both having values below 62%. Those are major issues and the offense will need to start taking deeper shots to compete with potent offenses.

On defense, the linebacking corps didn’t improve in the offseason and is still susceptible to the run. The secondary looks solid, especially with the addition of 1st round pick Joey Porter Jr. And the defensive ends are strong as they still have TJ Watt wreaking havoc and added Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton in the draft. But in the end, I have doubts about Pickett and think there are too many holes on this roster. Pickett competes but he was ranked 33rd in yards per attempt in 2022 and routinely left the pocket too early. The offense has playmakers but lacks some of the game-breaking ability the other teams have in the division.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

CLEVELAND BROWNS +425 DraftKings

The Cleveland Browns once again finished last in the AFC North in 2022. That marked the 14th time in 20 seasons that the Clevelanders suffered a 4th-place finish in the AFC North. And it just felt so Cleveland again as they lost 6 games by one score or less. Even more maddening for Browns fans was the team’s lack of offensive pop especially after Watson took over. The Browns went 3-3 with Watson and managed just 16 points per game. Their only wins were against Houston, Washington, and a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team.

But now they’ve had a full offseason to allow Deshaun Watson to work with the team and get acclimated. So there is optimism around Lake Eerie that this year will be different, and the Browns will see the QB they paid a steep price for. Adding Elijah Moore at WR and drafting Spencer Tillman out of Tennessee will improve the WR corps. The run game should also be solid coming off a season where they had the 6th most yards (2490).

Complimenting an offense that was just 17th in scoring was a defense that was terrible against the run. The Browns allowed 4.7 yards/carry and 135 yards/game rushing which were both good for 25th in the league. They also struggled to pressure the QB as they racked up just 34 sacks. Myles Garrett accounted for 16 of those with no other Browns defender recording more than 3. They did spend money to sure up the line, adding Zadarius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson, but they’ll still need to find ways to create QB pressure.

Look, the Browns haven’t won the AFC North since 1989. And even with a full year of Deshaun Watson and overall improvements on offense, one could argue they will be closer to last than first once again this year. However, I do believe the Browns will be in line for improvement, but it just won’t be enough to get to the top of this Division. They’ll battle for a Wildcard as their schedule strength ranks 26th in football and they’ll give their fans some glimpses of hope towards the future.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

BALTIMORE RAVENS +220 DraftKings

The Ravens, much like the Dolphins in the AFC East, boast a strong roster filled with talent. But will only go as far as their QB’s health goes. One of the most comical stories of the 2022 season was to see QB Tyler Huntley in the Pro Bowl (2 TD’s and 3 INT’s for the season). And while he did hold his own, his play just showed the significant gap between Jackson and a backup QB. It was both injuries and contract squabbles that hindered the former MVP winner in 2022.

And by all accounts, both those issues have been resolved and the Ravens doubled down by stacking together the best set of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had. So, it’s now shut up and put up for both the QB and the Ravens. Can they meet the standards they’ve set for themselves and challenge the Bengals for the AFC North Title?

Adding Odell Beckham Jr and Zay Flowers to Jackson’s offense will give him greater firepower. A year plus removed from major knee injuries, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards should both be fully healthy this year which adds to the running game. And the most notable offensive move of all is the changing of offensive coordinators by replacing Greg Roman with Georgia OC Todd Monken. In all, the offense looks the part and is capable enough to play with pace and score with anyone.

There is a lot to like in Baltimore and I believe they will be serious contenders in the AFC. But it also may take time for them to get all the new pieces, including change in offensive schemes, gelling together. Plus, they have a tough opening stretch and play their first 3 division games on the road. I think Baltimore makes the playoffs again and will be playing their best football by the season’s end. I won’t take the +220 here (to win Division) because of a possible slow start but instead, consider them for AFC champions at +1100.

VERDICT: RAVENS +1100 to WIN AFC / SIDE BET RAVENS TO WIN MORE THAN 3.5 IN A ROW (-140)

CINCINNATI BENGALS +150 DraftKings

The Bengals have won the AFC North in two straight seasons and they are fully equipped once again to be the lead dogs, or cats, in the Division again in 2023. In 2022, Cincinnati improved their defense and offense leading to a higher point differential and 2 more wins than the Super Bowl team from 2021. And to be honest, a couple of zebras and an egregious late hit are some of the biggest reasons they didn’t make it back to the big game. But that pain yields motivation which will help fuel this team to be tops in the AFC North again.

The Bengals biggest challenger is the Baltimore Ravens. Since the start of 2021, Cincy is 4-1 against the rivals from Maryland. And in the offseason, they added key pieces such as stud offensive lineman Orlando Brown who will add protection to their star QB, Joe Burrow.

And those last two words are the key to why I’m backing the Bengals even at the shortest odds of the group. Joe Burrow has improved every year and is the coolest of customers in the most daunting situations. He’s won in Kansas City and Buffalo during the playoffs. Mr. Cool has beaten the #1 seed on the road. Last we forget, Burrow won a National Championship under the brightest of lights. Nothing gets to Joe and as long as he stays upright, the Bengals will be annual contenders in the AFC. He looks as close to Tom Brady as anyone I’ve seen.

To win a bet at +150, we need to have better than a 40% chance of an outcome occurring. If we just simply eliminate the Steelers and Browns from winning the Division, the easy math is the Bengals have a 50% chance to be better than the Ravens. Diving deeper we see a team that has won the Division two times in a row and has been eliminated in those seasons by the eventual Super Bowl Champion. And looking at last season, 4 of their 5 losses were by 3 points or less. As a team, they are tough to beat, and they have become better each year. For all those reasons, these odds are worth betting as there is a better than 40% chance the Bengals will reign supreme in the AFC North once again. And who doesn’t love backing Joe Cool?

VERDICT: BET +150

Now that you finished reading the 2023 AFC NORTH DIVISION PREVIEW article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We are less than 2 weeks from NFL teams opening their training camps. The anticipation for this season is so great as there is no clear favorite and a litany of teams that could hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season. We’re going to start diving into each division and we’ll start this series with one of the most fascinating of all; the AFC East.

We have a Hall of Fame QB that has joined the AFC East. We have one of the greatest coaches of all times who has made significant roster changes, again. And then there’s a team with a polarizing coach and oft injured QB that can win track meets if they could only stay healthy. Finally, we have the Mafia that is battling through issues and seasons of promise that have fallen well short. Can they rebound and finally push past the wall that keeps knocking them down?

This article will focus on division winning odds and which team I believe will end up being crowned AFC East Champ. Win totals will be in a separate article closer to the season’s start.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +800

The roster re-shaping since TB12 left town took another huge turn this offseason. Coming off their 2nd losing season in the last 3 years, the Patriots added TE Mike Gesicki and WR Juju Smith Schuster to help bolster a dull offense.

But the biggest question mark for New England still lies behind center. Is Mac Jones what we saw in his rookie season where he managed the team and found ways to win games by not turning the ball over? Or is he the turnover-prone edition we saw last season? I do believe he’s a serviceable NFL QB but I don’t think he’s had the weapons or coaching to thrive. However, this year he is reunited with his college coordinator in Bill O’Brien which should help put him in positions to succeed. As for weapons, New England is relying on Tyquan Thorton to continue to improve. And they are also depending on rookie WR Kayshon Boutte to make an immediate impact. And while that could happen, the Patriots still don’t compare to the weapons in Miami and Buffalo (and even NY).

In all, New England’s offense is still one that doesn’t impress, and in a division filled with high-octane offenses, they won’t be able to keep up. The Patriots will be closer to last then they will be to first place in the AFC East. And that could mean the end of the Belichick era.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

NEW YORK JETS +270

If you’ve come here expecting Aaron Rodgers love, then you will want to scroll down past this part of the article. I’m glad he came out of his darkness retreat to find some clarity but at that point, Green Bay had enough and had already moved on. It took over 2 months for them to get the right deal done with New York but it happened. And here we are, Rodgers following the same track as former Green Bay QB Brett Favre. And I think this story will end up close to that one.

Now, that’s not to say the Jets made a bad move. I love the move for the New Yorkers. The team has a solid roster but was missing that one key piece, a Quarterback. And out of the options available, Rodgers was easily the best choice. He’s going to bring many things to the locker room but the most important will be accountability. There will be no more pointing fingers at Zack Wilson or Mike White but instead at themselves. And Rodgers will make sure of that.

On paper, the Jets have the best defensive unit in this division and are led by DB Sauce Gardner who won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season. HC Robert Salah also has an attacking defensive front that can create havoc. On the offensive side, they also had a Rookie of the Year in WR Garrett Wilson who is now joined with Packers castoffs Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb. But it all revolves around Aaron Rodgers and how he adapts to a new city and team. The Jets have the talent and now the QB to be contenders in the AFC. But I think they’re still behind the Bills and Dolphins. So this one is a pass for me as the transition to a new QB will take some time to evolve.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

BUFFALO BILLS +120

The Bills are America’s Sentimental Team. From the amazing playoff game in 2021 against the Chiefs which ended in excruciating pain to Damar Hamlin’s situation in 2022, we all have a piece of the Bills in our hearts. However, the reality is the Bills have vastly underperformed as they have 47 wins in the last 4 seasons but no super bowl appearances. They win blowouts but can’t win any close games (lost 3 games by a total of 8 points). Josh Allen has seemed to regress slightly since his fantastic season in 2020. He threw a total of 17 interceptions last season and some were in the most crucial moments which is now leading some to question his ability to win the big games.

And now there is training camp drama as Stefon Diggs is creating a stir. He was sent home on the first day of mandatory training camp which has led to Josh Allen and others coming to his defense. It’s a distraction that is taking away from the football side of things.

The truth is, the Bills are still a very talented team. They didn’t make any significant changes over the offseason but their biggest one was the drafting of TE Dalton Kincaid. Their new weapon will be used in the slot and provide a dynamic playmaker to an already strong offense. Ultimately, the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC East. But at +120, the odds are not good enough for me to bet on them as they have two teams on the rise in Miami and New York. While the Bills should still win the Division and challenge for 12 to 13 wins, this is a pass for me.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

MIAMI DOLPHINS +300

The Dolphins are one of the most polarizing teams in the league and it all starts with Head Coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel is quirky and funny but most importantly he is a smart football coach who leads his players with intent. Has he made mistakes? Absolutely as the handling of the Tua concussion was botched on several levels. But do his players love him? That’s 1000% and something paramount to success in team sports. And as coaching goes, they also add Vic Fangio to help improve a defense that was ranked 18th in yards allowed and was 27th against the pass.

On the field, the Dolphins boast one of the best rosters in football. They traded for Jalen Ramsey from the Rams to form one of the best secondaries in the league as they pair him with All-Pro Xavien Howard. They also added depth at WR (Chosen Anderson, Braxton Berrios) and other areas such as QB (Mike White) and LB (David Long).

The key to everything revolves around Tua Tagovailoa and his health. The Dolphins QB went 8-5 last season and threw 25 TD’s. He is a smart and accurate thrower who makes good decisions. With Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, he has elite talent on the outside to make plays. They’ll need someone to step up at RB and better balance the offense. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson will get the first crack but the Dolphins also drafted De’Von Achane as insurance.

In the end, I believe this is the most talented team in the Division. They also have one of the best coaching staffs between McDaniel and Fangio. The Dolphins have won the AFC East just once in the last 22 years and haven’t won a playoff game since 2001. But that all changes this year as I think the Dolphins are serious contenders in the AFC.

VERDICT: BET +300

Now that you finished reading the 2023 AFC EAST DIVISION PREVIEW article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The calendar has moved to July and over here at Win Daily Sports, we have started to shift our focus to the biggest stage in all of sports; the NFL.  That’s not to say that you won’t see daily content for MLB or other key sports such as NASCAR and UFC.  The 2023 NFL Season is upon us as training camp is just 18 short days away from opening in many cities.  What better way to churn up the football juices other than with NFL futures and betting advice?  Today, we are looking at my favorite 2023 NFL MVP bets.

But before we look at the players that will headline the football story this year we must look at the past winners of this award so that we can rightfully align ourselves with how voters typically lean.  Since 2000, there have been 23 winners of the NFL MVP award.  Of those 23 winners, 19 have been QB’s.  The remaining 4 were RB’s and as follows:

• 2000 Marshall Faulk (2189 yards from scrimmage, 26 total TD’s)
• 2005 Shaun Alexander (NFL leader in rushing w/ 1880 yards, NFL record 27 rushing TDs which was broken by LT following year)
• 2006 LaDanian Tomlinson (NFL leader in rushing w/ 1815 yards, NFL record 28 rushing TDs)
• 2012 Adrian Peterson (2097 yards rushing, 2^nd most all time; Vikings 10-6 wild card)

One common theme for each of those above is that each RB had a historic season and their teams made the playoffs.  With the landscape of the NFL changing, and running backs being used less and less in the running game, it will be hard to see an RB challenge for the MVP award this year.  So we can likely eliminate all ball carriers from our player pool.

WIDE RECEIVER FOR MVP?

Even more fascinating is that a wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP award.  Even in Randy Moss’s historic season of 1998, when the Vikings went 15-1, he received just 4 votes.  Jerry Rice never won MVP but did win Offensive Player of the Year in 1987.  And when Calvin Johnson set the all-time record for receiving yards in a season with 1,964, he received 0 first-place MVP votes.  It would take a record-setting season for a WR to even get a vote let alone with the award.  But we can’t fully rule them out since the NFL has shifted to a pass-heavy league.  The only pass catchers we can consider are those that could challenge a 2000-yard receiving season as it would be the first in NFL history.

HAS A DEFENSIVE PLAYER WON MVP?

That brings us to the last position that should be considered for MVP and that is defensive lineman.  Since 1971, two defensive players have won MVP and they are Alan Page (1971; Vikings DL) and Lawrence Taylor (1986; Giants DL).  It took a Super Bowl title and a then-record 20.5 sacks for Taylor to win the award in 1986.  Alan Page was part of the Purple People Eater’s defensive line that terrorized the NFL for several years and he had 10 sacks and 3 safeties in 14 games during his MVP season.  

For a defensive lineman to win the award in today’s NFL, we would need to see a new sack record (currently 22.5) and a dominant defensive team performance for all 17 games. Unfortunately, I don’t see any defensive player that will be able to dominate enough to win this award based on all the offensive numbers we’ll see. Even if Bosa or Parsons sets the sack record, can his team defense be dominant enough as were the Giants and Vikings of years past?

So there you have it, we’ve already narrowed down our search to QB’s, potential 2000-yard WR’s, and otherworldly DL’s that could establish new NFL records.  With that being said, I introduce to you the 4 players that I will be backing for 2023 NFL MVP. Note the books where I found the best odds. You need to shop around as some were off by as much as 10-1 odds.

JALEN HURTS +1200 (Bet365)

In 2022, Patrick Mahomes received 48 of 50 first-place votes for MVP.  Jalen Hurts was one of two players to receive a first-place vote as he mustered 1 tying him with Josh Allen.  For Hurts to receive only one vote seemed short of where he should have landed but it was likely due to the fact that he missed 2 games due to injury. 

What’s important here is that the Super Bowl performance has put Hurts on everyone’s radar as he outplayed Patrick Mahomes on the biggest stage but fell just short of holding the Vince Lombardi trophy.  And falling just short may be the added motivation that Hurts needs to put up even better numbers in 2023.  In 2022, he threw for 3,701 yards with 22 pass touchdowns.  But he also added 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing TD’s. 

If we see any increase in those numbers, which we should if he plays 17 games, and the Eagles stay near the top of the standings, which they should given their roster, then Hurts will once again be in the top 3 of NFL MVP voting.  Getting a perennial star, who shined in only his 3^rd NFL season, on a team with high aspirations feels like a good bet.  It feels like a great bet when you get that same player at 11-1.

LAMAR JACKSON +1600 (Caesers)

Lamar Jackson is a former NFL MVP as he won the award in 2019 when he ran for an NFL record 1,206 yards.  He totaled 43 total touchdowns that season and led the Ravens to a 13-2 record when he started.  He also had his highest passing yard total that season with 3,127 yards.  That is noteworthy simply because if he plays well this year the voters will certainly compare numbers from his 2019 campaign.

There are two primary reasons why I’m all in on LJack this season.  First, his contract fiasco is over and he has financial stability.  We all know that hung over the Ravens and Lamar and clouded the QB’s hampered his play.  But that’s all behind him now and he’s being paid as a top 5 QB in the league.  The second reason is the Ravens decided to go all-in on helping out their QB and finally improving their WR core.  Baltimore has tried to solve their WR issues through the draft but they haven’t had anyone step up and be the number one guy.  They traded away their last 1000-yard WR in Marquise Brown and tried to replace him with Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman.  While both have talent, they haven’t been able to stay healthy enough to show it.

So in comes Odell Beckham Jr to take over the lead receiver role.  And in comes 1^st round pick Zay Flowers to add speed and playmaking ability in the slot.  They also brought in Nelson Agholor for the deep ball threat. Now the WR depth chart is deep and talented.  And don’t forget the Ravens have a top 3 TE in Mark Andrews.  This is definitely the most talented offensive core that Lamar Jackson has had to work with. 

If Lamar passes for 4,000 yards and rushes for 700 more he will be in the talks for MVP.  At the current odds, this bet is very much worth the risk that comes with Jackson (i.e. injuries) because he is paid and has the best weapons around him that he’s had in his career.

RUSSELL WILSON +4500 (Caesers)

Now comes the real value in our MVP projections.  Russ did not cook in 2022.  To be fair, he couldn’t cook as Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett was way over his head.  He started off by providing a cultured environment that allowed special privileges to his star players.  From that point on Hackett was doomed and headed towards failure.  So Denver hired Mr. Accountability, Sean Payton, to take over as the lead signal caller.  That alone should be worth your time and money considering he turned Drew Brees into one of the best QB’s in his era.

Wilson is surrounded by exceptional talent, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, and rookie Marvin Mims.  He also has weapons at RB and TE that will help him improve drastically in Sean Payton’s offense.  With the defense in Denver, they look to be one of the best bounce-back teams in 2023.  And if that occurs, Wilson will be the one to reap those benefits.

NOTE:  Will also bet Russell Wilson +2000 as Comeback Player of the Year.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON +10,000 (DraftKings)

As stated in our opening, no WR has won the NFL MVP award.  And no WR has ever reached 2000 yards receiving.  I’m fully aware of how big of a challenge it is to name a WR as MVP.  However, as noted above, special seasons by Marshall Faulk, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Adrian Peterson all ended in MVP seasons.

For this bet to cash, we’re going to need 2000 yards and 20+ TDs from Jefferson.  And honestly, that isn’t too far of a reach.  The Vikings WR has been getting better every season and he topped that off with 128 receptions and 1809 receiving yards in 2022.  Gone is Adam Theilen but in comes talented rookie Jordan Addison.  To me, this is a complete upgrade and will help free up Jefferson more.  This means he just needs to up his yards per game by 11.5 to reach the ultimate receiving stratosphere.  Obviously, the TDs will need to increase but losing Dalvin Cook may also become Jefferson’s gain. 

In all, Minnesota’s D was bad last year and hasn’t greatly improved.  They will need to play in shootouts which should be fuel to Jefferson’s chances of setting the record books.  With all that said, I think he has a better than 100-1 chance of setting the NFL receiving record which makes this best have value.

Now that you finished reading the 2023 NFL MVP Futures article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.