We had a solid first week at The Running Back Report. I personally gave a grade of B+, as we hit on the top scoring RB and had one of the best returns with Aaron Jones going for 6.5x value. But we didn’t see Roschon Johnson, Kyren Williams, or Josh Kelley being top 11 RB’s. If you were one of the 0.09% that owned one of these backs, then hats off to you and hopefully you turned it into a big profit. Just goes to show value can be found anywhere, including back-ups, to help propel lineups to success.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 1 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Giants’ fans want to completely ignore last week’s 40-0 loss to Dallas. And I can’t blame them as it is just one game. I’d say DFS players should take the same advice because you can’t just turn the page on several Giants offensive players based on one game that got off script fast. Instead, this week will tell us a lot about the G-Men and whether they are going to grow from last year’s success.

To me, that starts with Saquon Barkley as the Giants will need to get back to basics and feed their best player the ball. Even in a blowout loss, Barkley received 64% of the snaps in Week 1 and that would have been more if not for the score. And he lands on a good square this week as Arizona’s defense is projected in the bottom third of the league. While they fared decently against the Commanders, some of that is masked by Sam Howell’s poor play. Looking at 2022, the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TD’s (21).

Lastly, Saquon had two games in 2022 where he had less than 12 carries (Barkley had 12 carries in Week 1 vs Dallas). In the week following, he received 23 touches. You can book the Giants RB for 20+ touches this week making his floor very high while also adding the possibility of a breakout game.

DERRICK HENRY $7400 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Henry didn’t get the volume he typically does in Week 1 as he received just 48% of the RB snaps. But he did get 82% of the touches which is important to note. What made many scratch their head was that Henry had 97 total yards at halftime but touched the ball just five times in the second half. And scratching further, the Titans O-Line received the 4th highest run blocking grade in Week 1 according to Pro Football Focus. Expect HC Mike Vrabel to make corrections this week.

Speaking of Week 2, the LA Chargers come to town, and they graded as the 26th ranked defense against the run win Week 1. Taking it one step further, the Chargers are currently ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA.

So, we have a classic case of an RB underutilized in Week 1, facing a favorable matchup in Week 2. With the Titans coming off a loss to the Saints because of poor QB play, the Chargers are in line to see a heavy dose of King Henry this week.

JOSH JACOBS $7100 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

Jacobs didn’t have a breakout game in week 1 but he still managed 80% of the snaps and 91.3% of the touches. Which means the Raiders are back to their 2022 ways and will ride their bell cow RB until he says otherwise. And for Jacobs, another rushing title, or something close, will go a long way towards a better contract in 2024.

His opponent in Week 2, the Buffalo Bills, allowed 173 yards on the ground to the Jets in Week 1. Yes, 83 of those were on one play but it was still a massive number as the Bills allowed the 4th least rushing yards in the league in 2022. The Raiders graded out well as an O-Line in Week 1 allowing just 3 pressures. If they can keep that up against Greg Rosseau and company, it should open up holes for Jacobs in the running game.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8200 FanDuel

Etienne had an impressive Week 1 performance. Not because he needed a late rushing TD to provide his value to owners. But more importantly he dominated the snap count and received 80% of all RB plays. This usage rate is reminiscent of his run last year when he frequently eclipsed the 80% snap count.

With the knowledge of how Jacksonville intends on deploying their RB’s, we get to use that in a juicy matchup this weekend with KC. The Chiefs were without star DE Chris Jones in Week 1, and they did little to stop a Lions rushing attack as they allowed Detroit to rush for 118 yards. Based on their performance, FTN has the Chiefs ranked 28th against the run, according to DVOA. And even with Jones back in the fold, he’ll likely be limited until his conditioning returns to 100%. And with the heat expected in Florida, the Jaguars O-Lind could expose a thin Chiefs D-Line this week.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6300 DraftKings $5800 FanDuel

As we like to say here at WinDaily, it’s not always about the numbers as it also is about the eye test. And the latter is what has me fired up with Gibbs. He was clearly a difference maker on the field last Thursday night as he displayed a raw combination or speed and power. While he only received 27% of the snaps and 29% of the touches, that ratio should grow as the season goes on. He’s too talented of a player to not use more in Detroit’s offense and I’m certain Lions OC Ben Johnson knows that.

As for his opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, they had another rough display of defense in Week 1 as they allowed the Rams to rack up 426 yards of total offense. While they failed more in the passing game, the Seahawks graded out as the 12th worst rushing defense according to DVOA in Week 1. And this was a common flaw last season as they finished 2022 with the 25th ranked rushing defense in DVOA.

Remember, Seattle and Detroit played last season and combined for 93 points. It may not get that high again but it was a game environment that won the Milly. Gibbs may only get 30% of the snaps but he has the potential to break a big one and is up against a very vulnerable defense.

JAMES CONNER $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

Outside of Christian McCaffrey, no other RB had a higher percentage of snaps in Week 1 than James Conner. He played 52 of 62 snaps accounting for an 84% rate. He was a factor in the passing game too as he came down with five receptions on five targets. Though dealing with a calf strain, if healthy, Conner has one of the weekend’s best matchups.

The Giants allowed 122 yards rushing and a 4.1 ypc in Week 1 against the Cowboys. And it would have likely been worse if Tony Pollard played the 2nd half of the game as he racked up 70 yards on 5.0 ypc before being pulled with 25 minutes left in the game. The run defense was also an Achilles heel for the GMen last year as they finished last in rush defense DVOA in 2022.

JAMES COOK $6100 DraftKings $6600 FanDuel

Speaking of eye tests, Tony said it on our WinDaily Sports NFL DraftCast last night, and that is James Cook is a beast. He runs hard with bad intentions. While the Bills lost to the Jets in Week 1, their one shining spot was their RB as Cook received 60% of the snaps and 72.1% of the touches.

He now gets the opportunity to light up a Raiders defense that allowed 4.42 ypc to Denver RB’s in Week 1. They also allowed ten targets to Broncos RB’s, with eight completed. This week is a great opportunity for the Bills to rebound from a loss. However, it’s also a great matchup for an RB that they will lean heavily on this season.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

AJ DILLON $5900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Aaron Jones is questionable to play in this game as he has a hamstring injury. If he doesn’t, AJ Dillon becomes a top candidate to roster this week. In short, the Green Bay running game was solid in week 1 as they generated the 14th best run blocking grade. Their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, were 27th against the run in 2022. After Week 1, they’ve improved that to 18th, but they did allow 154 rushing yards to the Panthers. That also included allowing six catches to RB’s which was 7th most in the league last week.

Jones should be able to expose the Falcons D in the passing game, like he did the Bears in Week 1. So if he’s active, he should be considered. However, as we know with hamstrings they can often linger and for that reason I’m hoping he sits and AJ Dillon gets the full workload.

KENNETH WALKER DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $6700

Kenneth Walker had a solid Week 1, with 12 carries for 64 yards. Based on the score, he only saw three of those carries after halftime. So it could have been a much better outing for the Seahawks RB. But he gets another shot this week to show he’s fully recovered from his preseason groin injury. And that chance is coming against a Detroit Lions team that allowed the 4th most rushing yards in the league in 2022.

Another factor in favor of the Seahawks rushing attack is that they graded out as the 9th best block unit in Week 1. However, they lost their two starting tackles to injury against the Rams. But that will likely have them dial back the playbook and have a more run-focused approach to keep pass-rushing phenom Aidan Hutchinson honest.

RACHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6200

White disappointed many fantasy owners in Week 1 as he only amassed 6.9 fantasy points. However, he did have 19 touches and a 79% snap share. The Vikings were graded out as a decent run defense and that was primarily because their pass D was so bad. Which showed again in Week 1 as they graded out with the 4th worst pash rush in Week 1 and allowed Baker Mayfield to cook (well cook to 173 yards which he only surpassed four times in 2022).

But bring in the Bears and the way to attack them is on the ground and in the air. Pick your poison as the Bears rank 30th against the pass and 18th against the run according to DVOA. With the amount of snaps and touches that White got in Week 1, and the fact that Green Bay RBs were the 2nd highest scoring combination last week, and we have a recipe for White getting back into the good graces of his owners.

RB PROP BETS

DERRICK HENRY over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)

The Chargers are not strong against the run and will have to sell out to stop the Titans ground game. But I think Vrabel and OC Tim Kelly will have the patience to keep the running game going this week. Henry ran for 107 yards against the Chargers last season.

JAMES COOK over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)

The Broncos had success on the ground against the Raiders. And I expect the Bills to have the same this week. Cook looked explosive and received 72% of the touches. He got 46 yards on just 12 rushes in Week 1 as the Bills went with a 61/39 pass run ratio. That will be adjusted this week and I am expecting 15+ carries for Cook which makes this prop easily attainable.

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We are so back! The NFL Season kicks off tonight, and with that, we get the opportunity to start our 18-week-long journey of setting fantasy lineups. This weekend brings us a plethora of backs to choose from, as we have the typical high-priced studs but also a significant amount of parity with backs in the lower salary ranges. That’s because it’s week one, and the main DFS sites started their salary projections many weeks ago, which now leaves us with considerable value based on training camp and preseason changes.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 1 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

AUSTIN EKELER $8400 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The most significant question mark about Austin Ekeler coming into the 2023 season is whether he can repeat his 20 TD performance from 2022. And while he may not reach that apex, he certainly is one of the best running backs to roster on any given week. That especially rings true in Week 1 as he matches up against the Miami Dolphins and their middle-of-the-road run defense.

First, the Dolphins/Chargers game has the highest total of the weekend at 51 points. That is 3.5 points higher than the next closest game between the Browns and Bengals. For that reason alone, we’ll need to get our shares of Miami and Los Angeles players.

The Miami Dolphins defense is the other reason to trust Ekeler. The Dolphins ended up 4th in rushing defense DVOA a season ago. And they allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards in the league in 2022. But hiding in that is the fact they allowed the 15th most fantasy points to running backs last year. The Dolphins D struggled in the passing game against RBs allowing the 7th most receptions (5.5 rec/gm) and 3rd most TDs (6). And some of the teams ahead of them were the Raiders and Chiefs, who, if they didn’t play against Ekeler twice, would have seen a reduction in their numbers.

Yes, the Dolphins hired Vic Fangio to run the defense this year. Yes, they added Jalen Ramsey and other talented defenders in the offseason. But I still project Ekeler for 6+ catches and at least 1 TD. With those numbers alone, his floor is ~20 points, making him a safe play this weekend especially since there are discounts at every position. NOTE: Austin Ekeler is a better value on DK than FD this week.

BIJAN ROBINSON $8000 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson will be a workhorse in Atlanta this season. We’ve already seen HC Arthur Smith decide to keep him out of preseason games, treating him like a veteran who doesn’t need the extra wear and tear. And we all know the Falcons invested a top-10 pick on a non-premium position, meaning they were convinced of Robinson’s star potential, seeing him as a unicorn worthy of over-drafting.

As for his opponent, the Carolina Panthers were 17th in run defense DVOA in 2022. And they allowed the 18th most points to fantasy RBs last year. Last year, the Falcons combined for 302 yards rushing against the Panthers with a 4.8 ypc.

Even more critical is that Atlanta’s offensive line ranks 7th, according to Pro Football Focus. Their RG, Chris Lindstrom, was rated as the best blocking guard in the league last year. Now, they get to pave the way for a highly skilled runner. Watch out!

JOSH JACOBS $7700 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

Jacobs is back with the Raiders, and for now, he’s happy. We’ll see how long that lasts as he’s on his second consecutive one-year contract with the Silver and Black. He opens up with a favorable matchup, as Denver was ranked 21st in run defense DVOA last year.

The Raiders RB eclipsed the 100-yard mark in both games against Denver last year, totaling 253 rushing yards. He averaged 29.8 DK points in those two outings and added eight catches to his stat line. Jacobs’s floor is similar to Ekeler’s, and I expect him to have a breakout week based on his past success versus the Broncos.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOE MIXON $6800 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

I’m high on Joe Mixon this season as he is one of the most prominent candidates to have a bounce-back season. He disappointed many owners in 2022 as he had just one game over 21.5 DK points, which was his outing versus Carolina when he scored five TDs and racked up 58.1 DK points. But the good news for Mixon this year is that Semaje Perine is off to Denver, leaving him with just 4th year RB Treyveon Williams, 3rd year RB Chris Evans and rookie RB Chase Brown as competition in the backfield. Based on that quartet of backs, Mixon looks to be the primary ball carrier and receiver this year on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

As for Week 1, he faces the Browns, who were 26th in run defense DVOA and allowed the 7th most rushing yards. Cleveland did make moves to sure up the defensive front by signing Zadarius Smith and Dalvin Thompson. But they allowed 22 rushing TDs last season, 3rd most in the league, which the Bengals will try to take advantage of with Mixon in week 1.

J.K. Dobbins $6600 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

Injuries over the past two seasons have hampered J.K. Dobbins. After bursting on the scene in 2020 with a staggering 6.0 yards/carry in 15 games played, Dobbins tore his ACL and missed all of the 2021 season and half of the 2022 season. However, now that he’s fully healthy, the Ravens are prepared to make him the featured back in a historically run-heavy offense.

His reward in Week 1 is facing the worst rushing defense from 2022 in the Houston Texans. The Texans did hire former San Francisco DC DeMeco Ryans as their HC. And his first focus will be to improve an awful run defense. But it will be picking your poison against this newly outfitted Ravens offense as they have given Lamar Jackson the most talented receiving corps to throw to in his career. Therefore, there will still be plenty of room to run for the Ravens, and they will do it with a steady dose of Dobbins.

AARON JONES $6300 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel

This price point is a discount compared to where Jones would have been in years past with Aaron Rodgers under center. And he may be worth more without #8 wearing a Packers jersey because Green Bay will have to commit more to the run to help QB Jordan Love ease into the starting role. Plus, the Bears were 29th in run defense DVOA in 2022, and they only added a little to that side of the ball in Free Agency as their biggest splash was LB Tremaine Edwards. The Bears are still light up front, and I expect the Packers to take advantage of that in Week 1 with both Jones and AJ Dillon.

CAM AKERS $6200 DraftKings $6600 FanDuel

Cam Akers won many people some money last season as he was one of the best RBs down the home stretch in 2022. In the final six games of last year, Akers averaged 72% of the snaps at RB. Add to that the Rams offensive line will be better in 2023. While the Rams had significant injuries across their team, the O-line incurred the most, including three starters missing more than ten games each. LA invested in a lineman in the draft using their first pick on G Steve Avilia.

Add to that the Seahawks were 24th in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs in the league (21). There also is little competition in the backfield in LA, leading to the possibility of a high workload this Sunday.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

RACHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6400

The Buccaneers RB is in line for a high-volume workload in Tampa this year. White is projected to be the top runner and could be a three-down back. His only competition is Ke’Shaun Vaughn and Chase Edmonds, who both project as pass catchers with low-volume usage rates.

While the Bucs may not be very good, they will increase their rushing attempts this year with Tom Brady gone and retired. Additionally, White is an excellent pass catcher, and we have an RB with 20+ touch potential. He also faces the Vikings defense in Week 1 as they were 18th in run defense DVOA in 2022. And they allowed 18 rushing TDs, the 9th highest in football. This salary is likely the lowest we’ll see White’s salary all year and, for that reason, should be strongly considered for both GPP and Cash.

KHALIL HERBERT DraftKings $5300 FanDuel $6100

This one feels like a smash play this week as Herbert faces the Packers, one of the worst run defenses in the league last year. Green Bay ended up ranked 31st against the run, according to DVOA metrics. And they allowed an average of 136 yards per game on the ground.

If preseason told us anything, Justin Fields looks more comfortable, and Khalil Herbert is RB #1 in Chicago. The Bears had the #1 running offense in the league in 2022, and that should only benefit more with additions to the O-line and Fields growth. Expect Herbert to be the biggest beneficiary of that and explode in Week 1.

DEON JACKSON DraftKings $4100 FanDuel $5600

We still need to determine precisely what the Colts will do with the RB situation. But the price of Deon Jackson is too low for us to dismiss him. It’s so low that he will be one of the higher-owned backs on the slate this week. DraftKings posted his salary when Jonathan Taylor was projected to be the starting RB in Indy. But now, with Zach Moss being questionable, Jackson will likely get the start and see the majority of the touches.

And let’s not ignore the favorable matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville had the 12th ranked run defense according to DVOA but allowed the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. And now Indy has a dual-threat QB in Anthony Richardson that could cause fits for a defensive front while also opening holes for Jackson.

RB PROP BETS

BIJAN ROBINSON over 69.5 rushing yards

Carolina allowed over 250 rushing yards to Atlanta last season. More importantly, the Panthers are without star DE Brian Burns. Arthur Smith needs to prove it this year and he cant’ be cautious so I expect Bijan to be in line for 20+ carries and easily surpass his total.

RACHAAD WHITE over 2.5 receptions

We all know Baker Mayfield is not very good. So he will have to check it down to his RB’s early and often. Add to that Minnesota is projected as the 32nd total defense according to DVOA and we have a quality matchup worth exploiting in Week 1.

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Welcome to the next 2023 NFL Division preview in our series of preseason articles. Today we bring you the AFC West which is home to the Super Bowl Champions, Kansas City Chiefs.  In fact, the Chiefs have won the AFC West in 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2023.  And looking at the structure of the teams in the Division, it wouldn’t be a surprise to reach 8 straight.  It’s Mahomes versus Herbert, Garoppolo, and Russell Wilson.  Which seems to be as wide of a gap as we have in any Division.

But that doesn’t mean the other teams won’t try. The Chargers are talented enough but find ways to lose, even when they have 27-point leads.  The Broncos hired the best FA head coach available and have pieces in place, but is Russ cooked?  As for the Raiders, they have a cool stadium.  So, take that for what it’s worth, and let’s dissect this Division to see if there is any value in betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. 

Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +1200 DraftKings

I was down on the Raiders going into last season primarily because of their massive luck in 2021 and record of 7-1 in one-possession games.  But I didn’t see it all unraveling to the point that Derek Carr was ostracized and put out to pasture.  Additionally, their three stars, Maxx Crosby, Josh Jacobs, and DeVante Adams, all put up great stats and yet they still tumbled to a 6-11 record.  Looking back, the Raiders played in 13 one-score games and went 4-9 in those outings. So it goes to show that winning close games at such a high clip doesn’t translate from year to year.  And after the dust was settled, it just looked like another typical maelstrom of a year from HC Josh McDaniels.  Controversy finds McDaniels and it doesn’t seem to be by coincidence.

Jumping to 2023, the Raiders decided to move on from Derek Carr.  They had their choice of several high-profile QBs to recruit and pick from.  Ultimately, they homed in on and traded for ex-49er Jimmy Garoppolo to be the leader of the (near) future.  While Jimmy is a winner, he’s also a limited QB that is prone to injuries.  Quite frankly, it doesn’t seem like a huge upgrade if any at all, from Derek Carr.  It just seemed like Carr and McDaniels were oil and water and never meant to mix.  Which means this pairing of QB and HC made sense due to their prior relationship in New England and criticality of this upcoming season.

While I don’t love the Garoppolo move, here’s what I did like about the Raiders offseason.  Drafting Edge Rusher Tyree Wilson, who I believe is a strong DROY candidate, and TE Michael Meyer were shrewd moves by a front office that often strayed way off typical draft boards.  They also brought in WR Jacobi Meyers to pair with DeVante Adams.  Overall, the strengths of this team are their pass catchers and defensive line.    

So how can this team improve from its misfortunes in 2023?  First, they’ll need to create more turnovers as the Raiders were last in the NFL with just 13.  Because of that, they ended up 30^th in turnover differential with a -8 number.  The defensive backfield still looks to be a weakness but rumors are FA Marcus Peters could be eyeing the Raiders.  That would be a huge boost for a team starving for ball hawks.  And while I’ve piled on the Garoppolo move, he does bring a winning attitude and culture which could spark something in the locker room.  He’ll also be a good mentor for rookie QB Aiden O’Connell.

However, they still have McDaniels and his style has been proven to not work in the NFL.  There was a time when I wanted him as the Eagles HC.  But I can tell now why that would have never worked here.  He doesn’t build cultures and can wear down teams.  This is a make-or-break year for McDaniels and he decided his best chance was to phone a friend to help run the offense the way he wants. 

The other issue is the Josh Jacobs situation as the Raiders and his team were not able to come up with a long-term deal by last Monday’s 4 pm deadline.  He’s now officially tagged, which is a one-year deal worth $10.1 million, and they cannot negotiate a deal until the end of the year.  Jacobs led the league in touches last season and did it on a one-year deal.  Is he willing to do that again, for a team that didn’t show him proper love?  It’s a story that will be hanging over this team all training camp and possibly into the season.

The Raiders will look better in 2023 as they have “their” guy at QB and talented pieces at critical positions.  But it won’t be enough to challenge the Chiefs for the Division title.  And it might not be enough for McDaniels to keep his job.  I feel there is too much drama in Vegas and the overall roster construction will lead them towards a tumultuous season.

VERDICT: NO BET / PASS

DENVER BRONCOS +550 DraftKings

The Denver Broncos were an organizational failure in 2022.  On the field level, the Broncos were the lowest-scoring team in the league last season averaging just 16.8 ppg.  Russell Wilson ended up 27th in QBR, ahead of only Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and Baker Mayfield.  He was sacked 55 times, most in his career, which helped pilot him to his lowest completion percentage (60.5%).  At the front office level, the hiring of HC Nathaniel Hackett ended up being the worst coaching hire of the offseason, and the worst in the franchise’s history. He was fired after Week 15 and became just the 5th first-year head coach of all time to not finish his first season. 

But enough with last year as the Broncos’ front office crumbled up that piece of paper and threw it away. They moved swiftly and found their new head coach during the Super Bowl off week.  And they got their man in Sean Payton but while doing so also had to pay a steep price as he was under contract with New Orleans until 2024. The Broncos ended up trading away a 2023 1st round pick and a 2024 2nd round pick just to be able to sign Payton to a lucrative 5-year deal.  That’s just how desperate they were, and how wounded they felt from the disastrous Hackett era.

The Broncos also made two significant FA acquisitions as they signed OT Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers.  These moves were paramount as the Broncos led the league in sacks allowed in 2022 with 63.  As for the draft, the Broncos didn’t have a pick until late Round 2 but did add potential starters in WR Marvin Mims, LB Drew Sanders, and CB Riley Moss.

But in the end, this all comes down to whether Payton can get Russell Wilson back to the form he had in Seattle. The Broncos’ defense has talent, especially in the defensive backfield, to stay close in games.  They just need an offense to find ways to score, especially in the red zone, to keep up with the firepower of the other teams in their Division.  I believe Denver is one of the bounce-back teams of the year because of Payton, Wilson, the receivers, and their defense.  And quite honestly, he should be able to out-coach McDaniels and Staley with ease.  They won’t win this Division, but they’ll compete enough for me to make a few bets on them.

VERDICT: DENVER OVER 2.5 DIVISION WINS (-170 DK) / DENVER BRONCOS WINNING RECORD YES (-110 DK)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +340 DraftKings

For years, the Chargers found the most torturous ways to lose football games.  From missed FGs to last-second fumbles at the goal line, this team did the unthinkable to lose games.  And then January 14, 2023, happened where LA botched a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a crushing defeat.  They almost outdid the Houston Oilers, and that wasn’t a good thing.  Most notably, it was the first time a team had a +5 turnover differential and lost. 

A lot of arrows and fingers were pointed at HC Brandon Staley after that game as it was a culmination of the curious moves he made throughout the season.  The biggest was playing his starters in a meaningless Week 18 game and seeing WR Mike Williams getting injured. But he kept his job during the offseason and promised things will be different.  And like McDaniels in Las Vegas, it may be his last chance to prove those words aren’t hollow.

Outside of all that, the Chargers have a roster equipped to challenge the Chiefs for the Division.  In the last 3 seasons, which is when the Herbert era began, the Chargers are 2-4 against the Chiefs with all their losses coming by a total of 15 points.  In those 6 games, Los Angeles outscored their rivals by 8 points.  So they have been able to swing and take punches from the mighty Chiefs but, like they’re known to do, found ways to lose the close ones (including allowing a Travis Kelce TD with 30 seconds left to lose by 3 points last November). 

As constructed they have starts at almost every position. They have a young gun-slinger at QB in Justin Herbert.  They have a dynamic RB, one of the tops in the game, in Austin Ekeler.  And their receiving corps is arguably a top 5 unit in the NFL with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and newly drafted Quentin Johnston.  On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have All-Pros in DE Joey Bosa, LB Khalil Mack, and DB Derwin James.  And lastly, they finally have a kicker in Cameron Dicker.

So we are all set for another year of high hopes for the Chargers.  In comes Kellen Moore as OC to hopefully better balance this offense and make less curious decisions. They didn’t make any big splashes in Free Agency but filled some small holes.  But again, this is still a team that has a reputation for “Chargering”.  They haven’t won this Division since 2009 and have just 2 playoff wins in the past 15 years. 

But the more you keep firing, the better chance you have of hitting the target.  And that’s where I am with the Chargers this season.  They can compete with the Chiefs and other top teams in the AFC.  Outside of their loss to the Chargers and Seahawks, they lost their other 5 games by 7 points or less.  In 2022, they had the 8^th best offense in yards gained but just the 13^th best scoring offense.  They struggled in the red zone producing a 55% TD conversion rate which was 18^th best in the NFL.  And this is where I think the addition of Kellen Moore will work wonders as the Cowboys were #1 in the red zone last season with a 71.4% TD rate.

The defense was solid but they’ll aim to improve their 22.6 ppg which was 22^nd last year.  Overall, I’m just bullish on a team that has been chipping away but has been their own worst enemy, outside of the bullies in Kansas City.  The collapse in the playoffs could be one of the best things that happened to the Chargers as they can continually use that as motivation during this offseason to never let that pain occur again.  And taking placing play-calling decisions in the capable hands of Kellen Moore will be one of the best moves this team made in recent years. 

At +340, I’m getting a team with 10+ win talent to return 3.5x value.  All it takes is one injury in KC to make this even juicier.  But I also believe they can compete with the tops in the league and can turn around their misfortunes.

VERDICT: Bet +340 DK / CHIEFS & CHARGERS TOP 2 in Division (+110 DK)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -165 DraftKings

The Kansas City Chiefs are the gold standard in the NFL.  They have a historic combination of a Hall of Fame Head Coach, Andy Reid, and a Hall of Fame QB, Patrick Mahomes.  The Chiefs have been a force in the AFC ever since Reid arrived and more recently in the 6 years of Mahomes under center.  They have been in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, winning 2, placing them in “dynasty” conversation.  And now they are on the hunt for their 8^th straight AFC West title which would be the 2^nd longest in NFL history with New England’s 11 straight AFC East titles being the most.

To stay atop the league, the Chiefs often have significant turnover as winning players demand higher salaries.  This year, they lost the likes of WR Ju-Ju Schuster Smith (New England), OT Orlando Brown (Cincinnati), WR Mecole Hardman (NY Jets), and DE Frank Clark (Denver).  Those were significant hits for an already top-heavy team.  But they filled those holes with rookies in the draft such as EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah and WR Rashee Rice.  They also brought in WR Richie James and resigned RB Jerrick McKinnon.  So the cupboard is still stocked but I question how much longer an aging TE can be their top receiver.  At some point, someone in the WR group has to break out, whether it be Kadarius Toney or last year’s rookie Skyy Moore.

Defensively, they’ll need their young rushers to step up including last year’s 1^st round pick George Karlaftis.  They will deploy an aggressive blitz-based scheme behind DC Steve Spanola.  But it will be more bend but don’t break style that has won them games, including last year’s Super Bowl. 

Here’s the deal, the Chiefs are the team to beat in the entire NFL.  But I’m not betting them at -165 to win a Division.  I’ll take a bet similar to this if it was “wins” based.  Just not in this situation even though they are by far the best team in the AFC West.  The schedule is tougher, ranked 5^th hardest by Sharp Football Analysis and 9^th hardest by PFF.  Their second half includes the Bills, Eagles, and Bengals as well as road trips to cold-weather cities.  Plus, they are the hunted and if it wasn’t for a life-threatening situation in the Bills-Bengals game last year in Week 17, they may have been playing their most important playoff games on the road. 

The teams in the AFC are catching up and are hungry.  And while the Chiefs still have Magic Mahomes, the gap is smaller, and I see each game they play this year being a dogfight.  So, it’s a pass for me at -165 for the Chiefs to win their 8^th straight AFC West title.  Remind you, that’s something that’s only been once before in NFL history.

Now that you finished reading the 2023 AFC WEST DIVISION PREVIEW article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Welcome to the next 2023 NFL Division preview in our series of preseason articles. Today we bring you the AFC South which is home to three teams that drafted in the top 11 of the most recent NFL draft.  The one team that didn’t own that honor, had the number one pick in both the 2020 and 2021 drafts.  The point being, this Division is home to teams that have been bottom-feeders at some point over the past 2 seasons.  And with that comes a replenishment of talent and the potential for brighter futures ahead.  Which is what we see when looking at the QB’s in the South; Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and CJ Stroud.

And as you can tell from the above, the South will again be one of the worst divisions in football.  This division has not had a team reach the Super Bowl since the Colts in 2009, which is the longest streak in football for any division.  However, there is optimism as each team has a potential franchise QB in place. 

Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).

HOUSTON TEXANS +800 DraftKings

The Houston Texans found a way to win the least meaningful game in franchise history which sent them tumbling to the 2^nd pick in the 2023 draft.  And with that, they lost out on the opportunity to draft Alabama QB Bryce Young and instead ended up with QB CJ Stroud from Ohio State.  And maybe that was their guy all along.  But in the upcoming years, we will be comparing Young and Stroud, and remembering that meaningless game to close out the 2022 season.

Anyway, this was always going to be a transition and building year.  And by having picks #2 and #3 in the 1^st round and a total of 9 picks in the draft, they stockpiled good talent that could even pay dividends this year.  I still have some questions about Stroud but can’t argue with the pick.  On the other hand, I loved the LB/DE Will Anderson and WR Nathaniel Dell picks.  Xavier Hutchinson, a star WR at Iowa State, could also turn into a late-round gem.  So overall, this was as good a haul as they could have expected and has built a solid foundation.

Besides the changing of guard at QB and other positions, the Texans also hired a new HC in DeMeco Ryans.  The former San Francisco DC comes with high praise and will raise the level of accountability in the building.  But he’s also taking over a team that was 7-26-1 in the last two seasons and were outscored by a total of 303 points.  This isn’t your typical overnight rebuild and is going to take some significant performances for this team to rise to the level of the other teams in the Division.

But remember this, the Jaguars were last place 2 years straight prior to surprising everyone and winning the AFC South last year.  The Colts and the Titans were heavy favorites and while many had the Jags improving on their record, few had them climbing to the top of the Division.  With that said, to win a +800 bet it will have to occur at a probability higher than 11%.  We have a division with questionable QB’s, two new head coaches, and a history of surprising teams.  And the Texans have a new head coach that brings in a fresh scheme and accountability.  They’ve also added skill at key positions and should improve dramatically on offense and defense.

Lest not forget, this team wasn’t as bad as its record indicated in 2022. They hung tight against good teams such as the Chiefs, Cowboys and Eagles.  They also upset the Titans late in the season to put a foil in their playoff plans.  For those reasons, I think this bet is worth sprinkling a few bucks on.  This is a play that has value even if the chances of it happening are low. Remember, this isn’t predicting they’ll win but saying there is a better probability than the odds are giving.

VERDICT: BET +800

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +550 DraftKings

The Indianapolis Colts went from a team that was a QB away from being contenders to one of the laughingstocks in the league in 2022.  From rolling out a dinosaur in Matt Ryan to be the QB solution, to then hiring Jeff Saturday from ESPN to coach the team, owner Jim Irsay made some precarious decisions last season. So what tells us his new decisions will work?  In comes Shane Steichen, formerly Eagles OC, to coach the team.  In comes Anthony Richardson as the 4^th pick in the draft to take over the signal-calling job.  And if he is not ready right away, it’s Minshew time which always provides excitement.

The Colts also added several free agents including a head scratcher. Based on last seasons struggles they gave kicker Matt Gay the biggest FA deal at that position.  In the trade market, DB Stephon Gilmore had a great year but requested a trade and he’s now a Cowboy.  There is just so much turnover here and what we’re left with is a good defensive line, a star running back, and question marks in most other places.  Time will tell if the moves have now brought the Colts back to relevancy.  But my intuition says that with a new coach and completely new quarterbacking, this will be a transition year for Indy. It’s different from Houston solely because of Stroud’s experience compared to Richardson’s.

I do like the risk they took with Anthony Richardson as it’s all about reward.  We’ve seen similar skilled QB’s rise in recent years (Hurts, Fields, etc,) and he has a coach that knows how to use that talent.  However, we all heard that Richardson is a project and will take time so I’m buying into Minshew starting the year and Richardson coming in relief mid-year.  One other player I believe in is Jonathan Taylor as he will have a huge bounce-back season.  But in the end, there is too much scar tissue here for them to return to the top of South this year.  It will take time to get the system right and the players in positions to achieve success in 2023.  However, watch out for the Colts in 2024.

VERDICT: PASS / NO BET

TENNESSEE TITANS +425 DraftKings

The fall of the Colts was matched closely by the Titans in 2022.  From the #1 seed in the AFC and a 12-5 record to 7-10 and a top 11 pick.  Mike Vrabel’s team showed how much they relied on Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown, with the latter traded away to greener pastures.  The Titans went all-in on thinking Treylon Burkes could come in as a rookie and put up numbers similar to Brown at 1/10 the price.  But it just didn’t work.  And speaking of not working, the Malik Willis project at QB came with a failing grade.  It was so bad that they used players from other team’s practice squads to start at QB over Willis.  And to top it all off, the Titans lost 7 straight games to end the season.

So chalk it up to an organizational failure as they hit the reset button and move into 2023 with optimism.  And that’s because they still have the winningest coach in the Division in Vrabel.  They also have a healthy Ryan Tannehill who was 6-6 in games he started in 2022.  The Titans decided to be the team to stop the Will Levis wait party and drafted the heavy-armed QB in Round 2 as insurance for Tannehill.  They strengthened their O-Line by bringing in veterans Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill while drafting RT Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern. But the receiving corps is still light with only Burkes and Westbrook-Ikhine as WR’s with proven NFL experience.  However, they do have a talented TE in Chime Okonkwo as a pass catcher.  Additionally, we know the RB’s are solid, namely Derrick Henry, and will have to do the heavy lifting in this offense.

As for the defense, the Titans were #1 against the rush and allowed just 76.9 yards per game.  And they added key pieces such as LB Azeez Al-Shaair, edge Arden Key, and DB Sean Murphy-Bunting.  If they can pressure the QB and improve the pass defense, they will have the top D in the Division. 

Which means that I’m in.  I am not as high as everyone else on the Jaguars.  They came from 3-14 in 2021 to win the Division.  Things fell right for the Jags as the Colts imploded and the Titans got bit by the injury bug.  The AFC South is up for grabs, and I believe you have to take a chance in this Division.  My chance will be with the best coach, best RB, and most cohesive defensive unit.  If it’s not the Titans, I will also have the Texans in play at +800.  So let’s Titan Up and put some plus money in our pockets with two enticing future bets listed below.

VERDICT: Bet +425 / Side Bet Tennessee winning record +200 (Draftkings)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -160 DraftKings

The Jacksonville Jaguars roared last season and were one of the most surprising stories in the NFL.  From being the worst team in football for two consecutive years to winning the AFC South was surely a giant leap that even the biggest DUVAL fan couldn’t have predicted.  First-year head coach Doug Pederson got more out of his team, including star QB Trevor Lawrence than the “so-called” genius Urban Meyer.  It also helped to bring in WR Chris Kirk and have the full-time services of RB Travis Etienne as the Jags offense was 9^th in total yards and 10^th in points per game.

And to top all that off, the Jaguars won a playoff game that their QB tried to throw away early as he had 4 INT’s in the first 1.5 quarters.  They rallied from a 27-0 hole to win 31-30 bringing elation to the north Florida city.  Which is why everyone feels so good about the Jags coming into 2023.  The coach is in place, the QB has arrived, and they have the talent to take the next step.

All that is well and good but I’m here to tell you that I didn’t buy it all.  First, the 6-win turnaround came with some fortunes.  The Colts imploded and the Titans fell apart at the seams due to a lack of depth in key positions.  It took a late 4^th quarter fumble recovery for a touchdown to clinch the division in Week 18. And that was against a Titans team with a practice squad player at QB, Joshua Dobbs.  They lost to teams such as the Broncos, Colts, Texans, and Commanders.  And they needed 5 straight wins at the end of the season, including a miracle against Dallas, to end with a 9-8 record (4-8 before win streak).  The Jacksonville Jaguars were a great story in 2022, but it took a lot of help to get there.

The Jags didn’t make a lot of moves in FA but they had 13 draft picks so that’s where they looked to improve certain aspects of their team such as short yardage running by drafting Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.  But the biggest splash was a trade they made to bring in Calvin Ridley who is a game-breaker at WR.  However, they now have to move up in class and get the three Division winners in the AFC on their schedule in Kansas City and Buffalo (Cincinnati was on schedule as AFC South plays AFC North).  And their bonus game is against the San Francisco 49ers.  On the other hand, a team like the Texans play the Broncos, Jets, and Cardinals since they were 3^rd place last season.  That’s a huge difference.

The schedule just looks too daunting for a team that isn’t at the level of the elites in the AFC.  I can’t bet these odds at -160, which equates to a better than 62% chance of the outcome occurring.  Call me pessimistic but I’d bet on the 3 other teams before putting money on the Jags at these odds. I love Doug Pederson and believe in Trevor Lawrence. Just not at this price.

VERDICT: NO BET / PASS

Now that you finished reading the 2023 AFC SOUTH DIVISION PREVIEW article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.