NFL DFS Top Plays

NFL Game By Game Breakdown Saturday Special

It’s that time of the year again when the NFL is playing on Saturday as well and they’re back with three games this week! We need to know who to play and for what reasons, and that’s what the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Saturday Special is all about! I believe this slate is cash and GPP viable, so let’s dig in and see where we’re heading.

Buccaneers at Lions, O/U of 53.5 (Bucs -9.5)

Buccaneers – Pace is 9th

QB – When we’re looking at quarterbacks that could have a ceiling game on this three game slate, Tom Brady has to be an option. The question is whether he’s a strong option and that’s where things get dicey. The Bucs are heavy favorites and Brady wouldn’t be in line to push the envelope. Just look at the past two weeks. In Week 14, he threw it 23 times in a comfortable win. When he had to get them on the comeback trail against the Falcons, he threw it 45 times and went for 26 DK. There’s really not a lot else to pick at for Brady. He’s 12th in pDB at 0.49, fourth in touchdown passes, first in RZ attempts and fifth in passing yards. The only aspect that is scary is the competitiveness of this game (or lack thereof).

RB – It appears that Ronald Jones will still be out this Saturday and that means we can go right back to the well with Leonard Fournette. Last week with Jones out, Fournette played 66% of the snaps and had 17 touches. If he gets that workload again, he should destroy this price tag. Fournette is more suited to be in a leading game script and the fact he still got 17 touches last week is fantastic. Detroit is down to 28th in DVOA against the run and have given up the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards. Fournette is a stone cold lock at this salary.

WR – The Bucs have a three-headed monster at receiver but Mike Evans is just far too cheap for this matchup. Really, every single one is and I can easily get on board with Evans and Antonio Brown even if not playing Brady. Evans continues to lead in targets and air yards share since AB has walked through the door. Additionally, he’s been the main option in the passing game in the RZ and EZ. Evans is still leading with 10 RZ targets and when Brady leads in RZ attempts, that can be a lot of points in a hurry. Amani Oruwariye is going to see Evans the most, and he’s allowed a 1.90 pPT and a 14.7 YPR over 92 targets.

The Lions have a revolving door at corner right now, so the matchup for AB is a little murky. If Darryl Roberts is active, it’s likely up to him. He’s only played about 51% of the snaps but over 41 targets, he’s allowed a 73.2% completion rate. That’s a huge number. Justin Coleman should face Chris Godwin in the slot. Godwin is ever so slightly third in targets and that’s why I would lean playing Evans and AB at the salaries. If Brown is going to take over some of the target share and Evans has RZ work, Godwin is in no man’s land salary-wise. Coleman has only been targeted 36 times but has allowed a 90.7 passer rating.

TE – At this juncture, Rob Gronkowski needs the touchdown to be worth playing. He’s been targeted at the second-highest rate in the RZ and EZ behind Evans since Week 9, but the outcomes have been volatile to say the least. Gronkowski has three games under eight DK points and two over 13. It’s interesting to note that Detroit has given up only the third-fewest yards to the position but have allowed seven scores. He’s certainly not my favorite option and I’m likely playing him only with Brady. You could make the argument he’ll be chalky given the price on this short of a slate.

D/ST – The high end for this defense has certainly fallen off lately and I’m not real convinced I want to pay up. They do have 43 sacks and that’s always appealing, as are the 21 turnovers which are tied for the fifth-most. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most sacks which is a good match but let’s see how the defenses line up with salary.

Cash – Fournette, Evans, Brown, D/ST

GPP – Brady, Godwin, Gronkowski

Lions – Pace is 7th

QB – Matthew Stafford is a gamer, you have to give him that. He couldn’t have been near 100% last week and he still gave it a go. Now, that didn’t amount to much for fantasy and this matchup is just average by some respects. Tampa has fallen to seventh in DVOA against the pass but at the same time, they’ve gotten tagged multiple times through the air lately. They are down to 25th in passing yards allowed per game and over the past three games, they rank third-worst at 320 yards per contest. The defense for the Lions should have issues and Stafford is likely to face a negative game script. The veteran for the Lions is only 22nd in pDB but ninth in yards and attempts with 23 touchdown passes. He offers intrigue, but only in MME formats.

RB – It’s not a good matchup on paper, but D’Andre Swift is clearly the man in the backfield. He went back up to 19 touches and over 60% of the snaps again, a welcome sign after injury. In those two weeks, Swift has seven RZ carries and two RZ targets. That’s the kind of usage that can pay off even in a tougher matchup and if an “expensive” back comes in chalky, Swift is an intriguing pivot. Considering Tampa gives up the fewest rush yards in the league and is third in DVOA against the run, I think Swift is a really strong pivot from other options in GPP. Tampa has allowed the most receptions to backs and that’s something Swift can really exploit.

WR – The matchup for Marvin Jones almost doesn’t matter as I’m not sure how you argue with the target share at this price and it’s hard to avoid it. He’s under $5,000 and since Week 10 he’s been getting fed the ball. Jones has a target share approaching 28% and the air yards share is almost 45%. For this amount, I almost don’t care how the matchup looks and Tampa has struggled in that secondary a lot lately. Carlton Davis was shutdown for a portion of the year but has gone backwards. He’s up to a 1.80 pPT, 12.6 YPR and a 68.5% completion rate. Jones is very likely to be a staple of my lineups.

Another player that is just too cheap (and I can’t believe I’m saying this) is Mohamed Sanu. He’s played at least 59% of the snaps in his last three games and he’s the bare-minimum on DK. Do I expect anything massive out of him? Not exactly but when a player is only $3,000 and he has the same amount of targets as Danny Amendola. The veteran slot receiver does have an incredible matchup. Sean Murphy-Bunting has been a disaster in the slot with 900 yards allowed on 66 receptions for a 127.5 passer rating and a 2.20 pPT. I prefer Amendola for this reason. What’s interesting is I’m not sure we need to punt with these receivers with no big spends at RB. However, they are a perfect fit if you need a cheap guy.

TE – We talked about T.J. Hockenson as a consistent force for a tight end and he went out and completely and utterly laid an egg. He was only targeted four times, which is tied for his season low mark. Tampa is in the bottom 10 in DK points given up per game and it’s not like Hockenson isn’t a major part of this offense. Even in the time frame of Jones getting peppered, Hockenson is still managing a 19.5% target share and is tied for the RZ target lead. He might be under $5,000 but he’s shown so little ceiling this year that I don’t think I end up playing him that much. I’ll likely get my Detroit exposure from Jones, Swift and possibly punt Amendola.

D/ST – The Lions have only managed 19 sacks all season and 12 turnovers. The 12 takeaways are tied for the second-least in the league and those kinds of numbers won’t cut it, even at a punt price.

Cash – Jones, Swift, Hockenson

GPP – Stafford, Amendola, Sanu

49ers at Cardinals, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -4.5)

49ers – Pace is 21st

QB – Nick Mullens left the game early last week but not before he turned the ball over another three times contrasted with his two touchdown throws. He’s the likeliest of the quarterbacks to either get pulled from the game or pull a 25 spot while mounting a furious comeback (that he helped create in the first place).

Mullens is out which leaves the 49ers down to C.J. Beathard. It’s a short slate and all options need explored, but I can’t see a reason to go here. Think of how poorly Mullens has played this season and then ask yourself why he hasn’t been pulled yet. You know why? Beathard is even worse and can’t wrestle the starter’s job away. Over 438 career attempts, he’s under a 58% completion rate and a 14:13 TD:INT ratio. We don’t need this cheap of a quarterback and even if we do, we can turn to Vegas.

RB – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before – we need clarity on the San Francisco running backs. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are both questionable. That could potentially leave Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon as the only players left standing here and that’s about the only way I want a piece of this backfield.

*Update* OK, so we know that Mostert is out. That really opens it up to use Wilson, who was not listed on the injury report Wednesday. Wilson played 46% of the snaps last game and that was with Mostert active. He is pretty cheap but the matchup doesn’t do him any favors. Arizona is 14th in DVOA against the run and 10th best in DK points allowed per game. I have a strong feeling I’m going just two running backs on this slate but Wilson is on the board for GPP.

WR – It’s a little funny to compare Marvin Jones to Brandon Aiyuk from just a metrics standpoint. Let’s turn it back to Week 7, which is when Aiyuk started to catch fire. He extended his streak of 19 DK points or more to six this past week and most of it has come without Deebo Samuel. Since Deebo is out, Aiyuk will continue to be the man in the receiving corps. He’s owned a 30.7% target share and a 39.4% air yards share. He’s nearly $2,000 more than Jones. That’s not to talk smack on Aiyuk, who is an excellent play. It’s to highlight how mis-priced Jones is and we might start our receiving corps with these two players.

I’m not terribly worried about the quarterback switch in playing Aiyuk. I can envision multiple screens and short passes to make it easy on Beathard. Arizona corner Patrick Peterson is statistically washed with a 118.0 passer rating allowed and a 2.10 pPT.

Don’t get too fooled by the game log for Kendrick Bourne. He’s sill cheap but he caught a Hail Mary at the end of the game to goose his score in a pretty big way, otherwise it was mostly a quiet day. What was a little surprising was he only played 50% of the snaps last week and Richie James was right about 65% and he’s a good bit cheaper. I think you only play one and James would be the favorite. Not only did he have the snaps advantage, but he saw seven targets on top of it. Having reps with Beathard in practice doesn’t hurt either. These are players that could suffer with a third-string quarterback though in real game action. I don’t think it’s wise to get too carried away.

TE – I would not expect George Kittle to be back for this game even though Coach Kyle Shanahan said it’s possible and he would play if healthy. If Kittle is active, I’m plying him at $5,000. It’s really not even a question. That would be the biggest factor to hurt Aiyuk and his target share. Kittle is typically near the $7,000 range. He has a 23.9% target share when active this year.

If not, it’s going to be Ross Dwelley and Jordan Reed manning the position again. The former plays more snaps but the latter is the pass catcher, with a 28-17 target lead since Week 7. He has been touchdown or bust with just nine receptions over the past four games but he’s also under $3,000. If we’re loading up with other skill positions, Reed makes sense to punt. The matchup stinks as the Cards have catapulted to the sixth-fewest DK points allowed per game. Just get us into the end zone and we’d be golden.

D/ST – I don’t want to play against a healthy Cardinals offense although the price is fine. The 49ers are an average defense and just got housed in Dallas. There’s no doubt that the Cards have more talent and they’ve only given up 22 sacks on the season.

Cash – Kittle if active, Aiyuk and Reed as a punt if he’s not

GPP – Aiyuk if Kittle is in, Wilson, James, Bourne

Cardinals – Pace is 2nd

QB – Is Kyler Murray the chalk on the slate? Most likely. Is there anything wrong with eating the chalk at the position? None whatsoever. I don’t think any other option (including Brady) possesses the style of ceiling that Kyler has shown time and again this season. Half of Kyler’s games have resulted in over 28 DK this year and an eighth was 27.8. Murray has run the ball over 20 times these past two weeks, which is a fantastic sign after his shoulder issue hindered him for nearly a month. In the first game this year, Murray got San Fran for almost 28 DK and they had a far healthier defense at the time. Kyler has the lead in points per game at his position with his 11 rushing touchdowns and he’s still in the top 12 in yards and passing touchdowns. Eat the chalk.

RB – The floor for Kenyan Drake is really terrifying and I’m not sure I can get there with him this week. Even during the stretch that Murray wasn’t running as much, Drake had two games of 16 DK or under. The only solid game he had was a double touchdown day against the Patriots. Over the course of the full season, Drake has only played about 57% of the snaps and is not that involved the passing game. His 5.8% target share is really discouraging. When we get a back that doesn’t really catch passes and has to score to pay off, he’s really not that interesting. If we’re playing anyone, Chase Edmonds makes more sense for cheaper. He’s going to get some carries and has some passing game upside with a 13.4% target share. Additionally, Edmonds has the second-most RZ targets on the entire team.

WR – How can we not want to stack Kyler with DeAndre Hopkins? I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the past two weeks have seen Nuk go nuts when Kyler’s arm stopped bugging him. Hopkins has a 32.9% air yards share and a 29.2% target share in this offense, which is just silly. He’s only 11 targets off the league lead and the price is more than fair. Just like Kyler, the SF matchup doesn’t worry me at all. He went for 32 DK in their first meeting and this stack is my starting point, regardless of contest or format. Richard Sherman should see plenty of Hopkins and Sherman has allowed a 64.7% completion rate on 34 targets.

We can look at Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald as a lower priced option, but neither are huge standouts. The target share is about identical at 15.7% but Fitzgerald gets the better matchup in the slot. Kirk has to deal with Jason Verrett, who is top 20 in both pPT and passer rating allowed on 65 targets this year. Fitzgerald gets Dontae Johnson on the slot and that’s advantage Fitzgerald stats-wise. Johnson has only played part-time but over 28 targets, he’s allowed a 64.3% catch rate. I believe there are better plays than the secondary Arizona receivers.

TE – I could see playing Dan Arnold on this slate, although I’m still just not buying it that much. He’s such a low target player in this scheme at 7.8% and he’s mostly been getting “lucky” for lack of a better word. The Niners are the best team in the league in points per game to the position, and I’d just rather play Reed. Even when they get to the red zone, Murray can run it, Edmonds gets RZ targets and Hopkins is sill there.

D/ST – This unit makes the most sense at price I believe. I know they struggled with Jalen Hurts, but Beathard does not equal Hurts. Mullens has been pressured 28.9% of the time and I don’t think Beathard is going to fare much better from that perspective. Considering the Cards have 43 sacks, this is the best mix of price and upside to my eyes.

Cash – Kyler, Hopkins, D/ST

GPP – Fitzgerald, Drake, Kirk, Arnold

Dolphins at Raiders, O/U of 48 (Dolphins -3)

Dolphins – Pace is 27th

QB – I completely stayed away from Tua Tagovailoa last week against the Patriots but he still managed a very respectable fantasy game. He’s not likely to replicate two rushing touchdowns very often but the Raiders defense doesn’t represent much of a challenge. They rank 21st in DVOA against the pass after all. There’s some aspects to pick at with his game so far but one aspect that looks great is the completion rate under pressure. He’s 12th so far in the league at 44.4% and when he’s kept clean, we’re looking at 77.2%. The pDB is 0.42 and that’s not great, but it’s not terrible either. Given the salaries, I’m going to prefer the quarterback on the other side of this game but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tua was the lowest-rostered quarterback on the slate. That’s interesting in MME formats.

RB – The great news for the Miami backfield is they subscribe to the workhorse back theory. Salvon Ahmed was the best back active last week and he had 24 touches and a touchdown. However, Myles Gaskin is back for this week and is a great play on his own. Vegas can be had on the ground in a big way. Only six teams have given up more than the 1,500 rushing yards to backs the Raiders have surrendered. On top of that, they’ve also allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and rank 31st in DVOA against the run. I suppose there is slight concern about a timeshare after an extended absence for Gaskin but that’s not how the Dolphins have handled the backfield so far. Even at 15 touches, Gaskin is not expensive enough.

WR – This unit is really beat up for the Dolphins right now. DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant both missed last week, leaving Lynn Bowden as their lead receiver. While I like what Bowden has been bringing that past few weeks, he’s not capable of being the alpha in the passing game yet and the results showed that. If Parker is back, that helps Bowden a lot because he’s going to draw the defense towards him and let Bowden have easier coverages.

Bowden also has some extra motivation here as the Raiders drafted him in the third round and traded him to Miami almost immediately. That’s a little rarer in the NFL. The rookie is in the slot almost 60% of the time and will see mostly Nevin Lawson. The slot corner for the Raiders has been targeted 58 times and has allowed a 1.90 pPT with a 115.9 passer rating.

Since Week 12 when Bowden has been integrated into the offense, Parker has seen fewer targets. In that time frame, his share is only about 19.5% and that’s a little scary when we break it down further. He shouldn’t be penalized for just two targets in an injury game but he also saw 14 targets against the Jets. That’s an outlier to be sure and it wasn’t with Tua, who was injured. We know he’s not healthy and I prefer AB for $200 less. Parker still has some ability to post a big score as he’s facing Damon Arnette, who has only been targeted 24 times through limited snaps. Arnette has also let up a 70.8% passer rating. I prefer to play Gaskin from this offense, but Parker and Bowden both are interesting.

TE – Just like Parker, Mike Gesicki sat last week and we’re hoping he returns this week after a monster game against the Chiefs. The duo of Bowden and Gesicki are much cheaper to get exposure to the Dolphins passing game and Gesicki has a 17.9% target share with Bowden along for the ride. GOATsecki also has four touchdowns in that time span and it seems like another threat in the middle of the field has brightened his outlook a little bit. In his last three games, Gesicki has seen 22 targets and I’m loving that stat. He’s eighth in route percentage so even though we wish he played a few more snaps, Gesicki is only on the field to catch passes. Vegas has only given up five scores but they’re in the bottom half in the yards allowed as well. I’m just not sure if I can fit him at this position yet. He would also take a backseat to Kittle without question.

D/ST – I just can’t see spending top dollar on a defense on a three gamer. There’s only so many values that we can play in one lineup and I’m SURELY not sacrificing a Kyler/Nuk stack just to play Miami. They have a top 12 pressure rate on the season, almost 40 sacks and lead the league in takeaways. The price is justified by those stats but it’s still a hard one to fit salary-wise.

Cash – Gaskin, Gesicki, Bowden

GPP – Parker, Tua, D/ST

Raiders – Pace is 25th

QB – If there’s a quarterback that I’m willing to play over Kyler, it’s going to be Marcus Mariota. That sounds like a weird sentence but let’s talk about it. It seems that Derek Carr has a solid chance to miss this game with a significant groin injury. Mariota looked phenomenal in relief on Thursday night, throwing for 226 yards and a touchdown to go with 88 rushing yards and a rushing score. That latter part is exactly why I’m interested in Mariota. The Miami defense overall is vastly better than the Chargers defense. However, the Raiders are willing to use Mariota’s legs and that is so valuable at his price tag. Even though the Dolphins are the fifth-best pass defense in DVOA, Mariota still has 3-4x ability here if he’s going to run. Injecting the offense with some zone read concepts in the middle of a game makes me believe Vegas will do it again this week if Mariota is active. That can give any defense some fits.

Welp. I was really sort of interested in Mariota, but Carr practiced fully on Wednesday. I’m not sure a significant groin injury lasts under a week, but that’s just me. Anyways, I’m even more set on Kyler at this point. I’m not dissing Carr, who has played well this season. He’s just not going run like Mariota did and the makes it much tougher to get close to the “likely” score for Kyler. Carr’s efficiency is average across the board, sitting around 13th-16th in yards, touchdowns, pDB and attempts. With Miami fifth in DVOA against the pass, it’s a tougher matchup for Carr and I expect his favorite target to have a tough road himself. That could leave Carr’s ceiling even lower.

RB – Josh Jacobs being the most expensive back on the slate leaves him in an intriguing spot. Miami is 23rd in DVOA against the run but also has only allowed 1,293 rushing yards so far to backs. We know that Vegas is going to pound the ball as he had 26 rush attempts last week and three receptions. Even with overtime noted, Jacobs gets a heavy workload when he can. The issue with him is when they’re behind, it’s not always a big game for Jacobs. His preferred script is either close or winning so it’s imperative to nail the game script. I don’t think Miami runs away and hides here but with the salary, I do prefer other backs. If he’s not super popular, the GPP case is easy to build. Likewise, if he’s super chalky, fading could be key if he only scores around 12-15 DK.

WR – This is probably the easiest group to fade on the slate. The passing game runs through the tight end position and no receiver has more than a 15.7% target share, which belongs to Nelson Agholor. That’s not exactly the mark we hope for considering what we can have for $400 more in Marvin Jones. The good news for Agholor is he does lead the team in EZ targets at 12 and his aDOT is 14.4 which translates to leading in air yards share. My biggest fear with Agholor is the matchup on the outside. He’s playing 75% on the outside and that’s going to leave him mostly on Xavien Howard. The Dolphins corner is fifth in catch rate allowed, 12th in pPT and first in passer rating allowed at 49.7.

You could make an argument for Hunter Renfrow in the slot with attention on Darren Waller, but that’s a thin play. He’s barely above a 14% target share and has all of five RZ targets on the season. The matchup with Nik Needham who has climbed all the way up to eighth in passer rating allowed and fifth in pPT at 1.30. There’s better punt options on the board in my mind.

TE – I know Waller is coming off an enormous game, but I’m not sure I want to spend up on him this week. Coach Brian Flores of the Dolphins is quickly becoming one of the more prominent coaches in football and he’s going to figure out ways to make it difficult for Waller. I would be stunned if he’s not rolling the bulk of the coverage to Waller every single snap and making Agholor or others beat them. That’s about the only reason to not play Waller, because he is the alpha in the passing game. He owns a 28.2% target share, 25.2% share of the air yards and has 21 targets in the RZ for a 35.6% share. Fading him is based purely on Flores and salary. It doesn’t help that Miami is the eighth-best team in DK points per game against tight ends. I’m hoping Kittle plays so this is a much easier call.

D/ST – It might be against a rookie quarterback, but I can’t see much of a path for the Raiders defense. They are tied for the second-fewest sacks on the season and the 15 takeaways are the fourth-least. I’m passing here with such little splash play ability.

Cash – Jacobs

GPP – Waller, Carr

Core Four

Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Leonard Fournette, Marvin Jones

As I stated above, the Kyler/Hopkins stack is the starting point in any format for me. They represent the highest upside of any two players at their position in my mind. We need some savings and Fournette and Jones are absolutely perfect for that. Fournette gets a glorious spot and has 20 touch potential, while Jones is the cheapest alpha receiver on the board. His target share and air yards cannot be ignored at his salary.

*Update* The way the slate has broken, the three running back approach is a lot more viable than I thought. We have three backs that are not more expensive than $5,500 all projected to lead their backfields. It’s a rare slate to get that style of pricing and production.

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 15

We’re deep into the NFL season and we’ve hit the point where we have games on both Saturday and Sunday! That’s awesome for degenerates and we have all 13 games in total broken down! The first portion of this article is devoted to Saturday’s two game slate, complete with its own Core Four. We have a ton of work to get to so let’s not mess about and get right into NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 15 to win some money!

Saturday Slate

Bills at Broncos, O/U of 49 (Bills -6)

Bills – Pace is 26th

QB – It was a tale of two halves last game for Josh Allen as he rebounded from an atrocious first half to put the Steelers away. The number overall don’t look terribly impressive but consider they basically all came in one half. Allen has 15 total touchdowns over the past five games and has three games with at least 29 DK points in that stretch. We know the weather won’t both Allen really at all as long as it’s not a blizzard. He now ranks fifth in yards, sixth in pDB at 0.55, fourth in points per game and seventh in passing touchdowns. When you count in the six rushing touchdowns, it’s not hard to see where the ceiling can come from. Denver is seventh in DVOA against the pass and they hold quarterbacks to 19.6 DK points per game. Still, Allen is the likeliest candidate to match or exceed Aaron Rodgers for the QB1 on the slate. If he’s half as popular as Rodgers, that can to be attacked in GPP.

RB – It’s difficult to get behind this backfield on a normal slate. Zack Moss played more snaps and had 13 carries to just seven for Devin Singletary last week. That was a slight surprise since Moss fumbled early in Week 13 and was clearly benched. The salary for Moss is not tough to play but it’s much harder to find the ceiling for him. Allen has 22 RZ attempts and that always is a real threat to Moss or Singletary not scoring. Singletary is the clear third option when the Bills get close with just 16 RZ carries. He has three more games than Moss so the gap is likely wider than that.

With the salaries involved on this two game slate, I think Moss is going to be a popular option. It makes a lot of sense if you can snag 15-ish touches at this price. The Broncos are 22nd in DVOA against the run and have given up the 10th most rushing yards to backs. Normally, Moss wouldn’t be that interesting but on this slate he’s likely near a must if you try to load up on pricey studs.

WR – Stefon Diggs is just that dude. He leads the NFL in receptions at 100 even and that’s plenty of reason to play him on DK alone. That doesn’t even count his 35.7% air yards share and his 29.5% target share in the offense. Diggs leads in RZ targets as well and is the WR4 in PPR settings. I would love to play him and Davante Adams together but we’ll have to see how the rest of the slate shakes out. Regardless if Denver tries to match him with A.J. Bouye or not is not important to me here.

The secondary receivers are quite interesting as well since John Brown remains out. Both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley would be on the radar. Davis is a rookie but leads the Bills with six receiving touchdowns and he has 11 EZ targets, also the team lead. If you take the route of playing Allen over Rodgers, Davis is a great way to try and get what amounts to a 10 point touchdown. Davis also has a floor since he only has a 10.2% target share so if he doesn’t score, he could bust. Beasley just keeps on ticking and has at least five receptions in seven of 13 games. He’s in the top 20 in receptions and yards at the position.

TE – We usually just skip the Buffalo tight end, but some slight attention has to be paid to Dawson Knox. He saw seven targets last week, a season high. Over the past month, he’s been a little bit more involved with at least four targets in four of the last three games. Both of his receiving touchdowns have come in the last three weeks and if Brown remains out, he’s a viable punt option. Denver has only allowed three scores to the position but they’re also approaching 700 yards allowed.

D/ST – Buffalo is probably going to be the most popular defense on Saturday. Every dollar is important so it’ll be a little harder to get to the Packers and nobody will want to play against the Bills or Packers. The Bills are just average in pressure rate but they’ve been able to get home 31 times. Despite some flaws, they have also generated the third-most takeaways in the league. Give me splash play ability against a questionable offense any day of the week.

Priority – Diggs, Allen, Moss, D/ST, Davis, Beasley, Knox

Broncos – Pace is 10th

QB – The Drew Lock Experience continued last week as he went bonkers, throwing for four touchdowns and 280 yards. It’s exactly what we talked about in his erratic play. Sometimes he can look like an above average starter, others he looks like he shouldn’t have made it past high school. Lock has finally pulled his TD:INT to an even 13 on each side (better late than never I guess). With the Bills forcing so many turnovers, Lock is a terrifying option in some respects. The plus side is this could be a negative game script and he is wildly cheap. Lock isn’t likely to match the true ceiling of Allen or Rodgers with is 32nd ranked pDB. If he can get to within 4-6 DK points in garbage time, the salary saving could be worth it. Buffalo does give up the seventh-most DK points per game to the position. I can see Lock being in a winning lineup if he gets to 22-24 DK and your other studs do their job.

RB – I simply cannot fathom why the Broncos insist on splits the carries almost equally lately between Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay. The past two games have seen Gordon carry it 28 times for 199 yards while asking on four receptions for 34 yards. Lindsay as 25 carries for 50 yards and two receptions for seven yards. That is astounding in their difference and Denver not being able to see it. In fairness, Gordon did have a bit of shoulder injury this past week to explain the attempts for Lindsay a bit but even still. Buffalo has allowed over 1,700 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns while siting 18th in DVOA against the run. I wish I felt better about Gordon here and Lindsay is not on my board.

WR – For all the work that Lock did, it didn’t exactly translate to receivers getting a ton of targets. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler all saw five targets or fewer, which can make this difficult to project going into the next game. Hamler might wind up being my favorite since he plays a lot of his snaps in the slot. That’s typically where we attack the Bills defense and Taron Johnson is not the best corner, defensive touchdown last week notwithstanding. Johnson has allowed an 11.8 YPR and a 62% catch rate so far. Hamler is absolutely boom or bust with a 14.3% target share which is fourth on the team. You’re likely to have one or two of those style of players in the lineup for the two gamer.

Jeudy continues to play more outside snaps and that should likely leave him on some of Tre White. The Bills corner has struggled with consistency this season with a 67.6% catch rate allowed and a 101.3 passer rating. That would leave Patrick to see Levi Wallace in most sets and Wallace has been fairly sound this year with a 1.60 pPT over 64 targets. Patrick is living a charmed life lately, accumulating just 11 targets over the past three games. He has seven receptions for 80 yards and three touchdowns, which is carrying almost all of his production. That always makes things sketchy and that’s why I lean Hamler for the $700 savings. I do have a lot of Hamler to make everything else work and he’s a Stix favorite as well.

TE – It looks like Noah Fant dodged a bullet as the Broncos thought he may have Covid. Fant has returned negative tests for two days straight so he should be ready to go Saturday. Fant has not done anything spectacular this year and has a target share under 17% and just a 6.8 aDOT. That’s the lowest of any receiver in the offense and Hamler is next lowest at 11.1. The Bills are the fourth-worst in DK points per game this year and have given up the second-most yards. Lastly, they are tied for the most receptions given up so Fant has about the best matchup he could ask for. With him being under $4,000, he could make the most sense at TE this slate even with linebacker Matt Milano for Buffalo back in the lineup.

D/ST – I think there’s an outside chance the Denver finishes with close to negative points in this game. They only have 11 turnovers forced on the season, which doesn’t help. The 36 sacks are decent but the Buffalo offense is playing extremely well. I’d be trying to get to Buffalo even if the popularity is way higher.

Priority – Fant, Hamler, Lock, Gordon, Patrick, Jeudy, D/ST

Panthers at Packers, O/U of 51.5 (Packers -8.5)

Panthers – Pace is 29th

QB – Teddy Bridgewater is really in the same exact boat as Lock is. There’s not a lot to love metrics-wise for him but the garbage time production is palpable here. The Panthers trailed in last week’s game and Teddy B hit 20 DK, which would be about 4x at this salary. Also just like Lock, I doubt he can match the ceiling of Allen or Rodgers and would be hoping he gets within about 4-6 DK points of those two. The lack of touchdowns continues to cap Bridgewater, though it’s not like he’s smashing in other aspects. He’s 17th in yards, 15th in pDB and 16th in points per game. The 14 passing touchdowns is just 21st in the league. He does have four rushing touchdowns which helps a bit but it’s not like we should bank on that. Green Bay is 18th in DVOA against the pass but are top-five in DK points per game against the position. If he’s projecting to be the least popular quarterback, he’s worth taking some shots with.

RB – This is really the weakness to attack against the Packers since they are 25th in DVOA against the run. They are bottom-five in DK points per game and where they really can’t defend is pass catching running backs. They’ve allowed the most yards and the sixth-most receptions, not to mention 18 total touchdowns. With Christian McCaffrey all but out, attention shifts to Mike Davis. He awoke from his slumber last week to produce 26.3 DK points with two touchdowns. Even with the Panthers getting their receiving corps back in action, it’s hard to not love Davis given the slate and matchup.

WR – We should expect D.J. Moore back from the Covid list here and he’s among my favorite receivers on the slate at his cost. For one, he avoids Jaire Alexander for the most part. I typically do not try to go against Alexander and Robby Anderson doesn’t strike me as the one to break the mold there. Moore has a 22.9% target share and leads in air yards share at 40.3%, which could leave him in a prime spot to do some damage. No Panther has more than his eight EZ targets either and he leads the team in touchdown receptions. The price is rock bottom for him.

If we think Anderson gets muted here, that could open the door for another Curtis Samuel game as well. He’s running about 53% of his routes from the slot and if the Panthers are chasing, he could see plenty of targets to pay off his low salary as well. With Moore back, Samuel should be mostly in the slot and that means Chandon Sullivan for Green Bay. Sullivan has been solid with an 88.2 passer rating allowed and a catch rate under 60% across 67 targets. It’s mostly playing the script here.

TE – Carolina has not utilized this position at all this year.

D/ST – The Panthers are bottom seven in pressure rate, are under 20 sacks this year and are on the road. They do have 18 turnovers forced, but relying on 13 fumbles against a premier NFL offense doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

Priority – Davis, Moore, Samuel, Bridgewater, Anderson

Packers – Pace is 32nd

QB – I’m not sure what else I can really say about Rodgers that we haven’t said already. He seemingly is good for three touchdown passes every single game, as he’s only been under that mark in three of 13 games. He legit averaging three per game since he’s at 39, leading the NFL. Rodgers is sixth in yards, first in pDB, fifth in points per game and has done this all on being 13th in attempts. He draws a defense that just got thrashed by Lock, can’t pressure him and is 26th in DVOA against the pass. The odds of Rodgers scoring the most DK points at the position are high and he’s priced as he should be.

RB – I’m trying very hard to not let last week cloud my judgement on Aaron Jones. He got 70% of the snaps and 17 touches, which is right about what I expected. What I didn’t expect was a 9.5 DK performance and it was baffling in that spot. This particular spot is basically just as good since the Panthers are 19th in DVOA against the run and are over 1,800 scrimmage yards allowed so far. What’s interesting to note with Jones is he’s only had one true ceiling game this year, and that did come when Davante Adams first got hurt and missed about half the game.

Past that, he broke a 77-yard run against Philly that helped give him 26.8 DK. Without that run, it would’ve been another game under 20. Jones has eight of his 11 games under that mark, and was very close to it being nine. This is more than just he flopped last week. The track record this year suggests that with the passing game operating at such a high level, Jones isn’t as likely to smash any given week. Among the big name studs on this slate, he’s the easiest to fade in my eyes.

WR – One player I don’t want to fade is Adams, and I’m trying my best to start any lineup with the Diggs/Adams duo. I’m not convinced it remains the optimal path since you’d have to take e a lot of chances. Adams just doesn’t stop, adding another 7/115/1 to his season last week. He trails Tyreek Hill for the WR1 in PPR formats by about 12 points and has played two full games fewer. That’s not even counting the half game he missed against Detroit. He is legitimately unstoppable with a 33.3% target share and a 37.8% share of the air yards.

The probability for any other Packers receiver plummets after that but Marquez Valdes-Scantling still seems to be the clear choice. He has a bizarre goose egg in the mix, but the past four weeks have seen him garner six targets in three of those games. He’s scored a touchdown in two of those games and has crossed 20 DK points in those contests. Panthers corner Donte Jackson doesn’t exactly pose the biggest threat with a 96.8 passer rating allowed. MVS has the second-most targets on the team and just under 30% of the air yards share. The double stack with Rodgers, Adams and MVS is a very viable path to take here. Allen Lazard is more of a dart throw and I think we can turn to a player in the Denver/Buffalo game for better chances. Lazard has not crossed 12.3 DK points the last four weeks and has three games at eight DK or lower.

TE – Over that same four weeks, Robert Tonyan has been just a machine. He’s been targets 20 times and has 19 receptions and a touchdown in every single game. You really can’t argue that he shouldn’t be the TE1 in salary on this slate. I think the floor is lower than it looks since he’s been scoring so much and would rather play Fant unless stacking Big Bob with Rodgers. Carolina has allowed six touchdowns, the fifth-most yards and are tied for the most receptions. Both he and Fant are in statistically great spots.

D/ST – They will likely be a little difficult to squeeze in and I’m not particularly convinced they deserve to be so high in price. They only have 13 turnovers on the year to go with their 35 sacks. However, Carolina has the third-fewest turnovers as a team and Teddy B has only been sacked 23 times. Buffalo just makes much more sense.

Priority – Adams, Rodgers, MVS, Tonyan, Jones, D/ST

Core Four

Davante Adams, Mike Davis, Zach Moss, D.J. Moore

Adams truly just speaks for himself and with CMC off the slate, he will be universally rostered. It’s chalk you have no choice but to eat. I’m not exactly overjoyed to play Moss but the touches come at such a cheap price and it allows me to move around other pieces in the lineup. Lastly, the duo of Panthers players make for a good run back option of a heavy Packers stack. Don’t be afraid to go Rodgers/Adams/MVS/Tonyan on a two game slate. They’re the best offense by a good margin and if Rodgers hits three touchdowns yet again, all three receivers could be in business.

Sunday Main Slate

Buccaneers at Falcons, O/U of 49.5 (Bucs -6)

Buccaneers – Pace is 9th

QB – It was certainly weird to see Tom Brady only throw the ball 23 times this past week, a season low. That’s not going to translate to a ton of fantasy success since Brady is at a 0.49 pDB, 12th in the league. His accuracy numbers on the deeper dive still leave something to be desired as well. Brady is 33rd in completion rate under pressure and 24th in deep ball completion. The Bucs are still chucking it in a general sense as Brady is top five in attempts but seeing this chance out of the bye could be noteworthy.

It could also be game script related since Tampa didn’t have to throw it a ton last week. The price came down slightly for Brady against a pass funnel defense. Atlanta is 20th in DVOA against the pass and 31st in yards given up overall. We do have to pay attention to the recent sample. The Falcons have faced Justin Herbert, Taysom Hill and Derek Carr over the past three games and are averaging just 220 passing yards allowed. It’s a mixed bag of opposition, but the Falcons are continuing their surge in play with Raheem Morris at the helm.

RB – With Ronald Jones now on the Covid list and ruled out, Leonard Fournette is going from healthy scratch to starter. Given he was just not in the lineup, I’d be careful with Fournette outside of cash. He’s too valuable to pass in that format but there’s concerns about GPP. Atlanta is a top 10 unit in DVOA against the run and has allowed the second-fewer yards to backs on the ground. LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are also behind Fournette to mix in. I think Shady could be some serious GPP leverage depending on who’s popular coming into Sunday.

WR – It’s fairly difficult for too many weapons to have good games when the quarterback only throws 23 times and all of the Bucs players felt the brunt. Antonio Brown was actually the leading scorer of the big three on five targets and he only hit 9.9 DK points. Of course, it was Scotty Miller hauling in a long touchdown pass that helped out nobody. AB is still only playing 61.2% of the snaps but is just six targets behind Mike Evans for the team lead in their games together. Brown and Chris Godwin are tied at 34 while Evans is at 40. The biggest difference maker is is the 10 RZ targets for Evans. That’s almost 50% of the RZ looks in this offense and he leads in PPR points since AB joined.

Evans gets rookie corner A.J. Terrell who has gotten smacked around for a 2.10 pPT and a 118.4 passer rating allowed. That would leave Brown to mostly play against Darqueze Denard and Godwin in the slot against Isaiah Oliver. Neither corner is anything we should worry about here. At their prices, Evans is still absolutely my favorite and if not playing him or double stacking, AB makes more sense at $5,400 than Godwin does.

TE – I’m typically a little hesitant to play Rob Gronkowski anymore as he’s mostly touchdown or bust. That’s legitimately all he did in this past game and he’s $4,200. He only has 24 targets over the past five games but this is a good spot to potentially find the end zone. Atlanta is tied for the third-most touchdowns given up to tight ends on the season with the third-most receptions. I would likely reserve Gronkowski for a Brady stack to maximize on his scoring but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Gronk Spike in this contest.

D/ST – The Bucs defense is in a good spot here and the price is depressed after a string of poor outings. They have the second-highest pressure rate in football and Atlanta is right about inside the top 10 in pressure rate allowed. Tampa is still tied for the third-most turnovers forced and I have a good bit of interest if things break the right way on the injury front.

Cash – Evans, D/ST

GPP – Brady, AB, Gronkowski, Godwin

Falcons – Pace is 5th

QB – The trend of Matt Ryan playing poorly without Julio Jones continued this past week with three interceptions and just 10.3 DK points. Ryan has not been over 14 DK points in any game that Julio has missed this year and we got rumors last week of the Falcons potentially shutting Julio down for the season. That would leave me totally off Ryan, who has just not played that well regardless. He’s down to 25th in pDB, 20th in points per game, 15th in touchdowns and fourth in yards. It’s great that he can chew up yardage but eventually, fewer touchdowns does you in. What’s scary about the touchdowns is Ryan is second in RZ attempts. He is very cheap and if Julio plays, that would change things. As of now I’m not really looking his way since he ranks 25th in pressured completion rate.

RB – There’s exactly no chance I’ll play Todd Gurley this week. Over the past three games, he has no higher than eight attempts in any game. He’s not getting a ton of work and he draws the best run defense in the NFL. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards per game overall and to the running backs specifically. This is an easy pass and we don’t need to spend much time here.

WR – If Julio is out, there’s really only two options on the radar and one of them is wildly expensive in Calvin Ridley. He’s more expensive than players like DeAndre Hopkins and others, not to mention he’s just below Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf. That’s a lot to ask and I know he flirted with 30 DK last week but I still struggle to get there. Ridley is tied for third in RZ targets and second in EZ targets so there is definite reason to think he could score twice. Carlton Davis has been relatively strong this season. The 1.80 pPT is a little high as is the 12.5 YPR, but he’s been targeted 104 times which is a ton.

Russell Gage is a much easier play to get behind at cost although I’m not expecting a 39-yard touchdown pass again. He still drew seven targets and should be playing in the slot. Not only will Ryan need to get the ball out quicker (8.9 aDOT for Gage), but the slot is the spot to go after in the Bucs passing defense. Sean Murphy-Bunting has allowed a 71.4% catch rate and a 129.0 passer rating so far this season. Gage is plenty cheap enough to get the job done at his salary. His 17.4% target share is respectable, and there’s potential for more without Julio. No other receiver played 50% of the snaps last week.

*Update* Julio is out as we pretty much expected

TE – Hayden Hurst has just disappeared from the offense over the past month. He has a zero, 1.7, 1.9 and an 8.8 game log and that is ugly. He’s really not being given many chances since three of those games Hurst was targeted four times or fewer. We need to look for better options at the position this week.

D/ST – The Falcons may be top 10 in pressure rate but I’m not sure this is the right spot for them. Brady has only been sacked 16 times so you’re banking on some turnovers here. It could happen, but let’s see what we’re looking at for other punts as we go through the slate.

Cash – Gage

GPP – Ridley, D/ST

Seahawks at Washington, O/U of 44 (Seahawks -5.5)

Seahawks – Pace is 20th

QB – It’s not that we have to worry too much about matchups when we talk about Russell Wilson but this is for sure not the easiest spot he’s going to encounter. Not only is Washington second in DVOA against the pass and third in passing yards allowed per game, they are tied for the fifth-fewest touchdowns allowed. That’s not even talking about the front for Washington, which stands to give Seattle fits. Wilson has been sacked the second-most times this year behind Carson Wentz and Washington is a top 10 pressure rate team. Wilson had a four game stretch against the Cardinals, Giants, Rams and Eagles that he didn’t post more than 20 DK. The common denominator? All of those teams are in the top 12 in pressure are on the year. Russ will be GPP only this week for me.

RB – The snaps might seem like Chris Carson is still not healthy, but I’m not worried in that aspect too much. The blowout nature of the Jets game allowed Seattle to be cautious with Carson to get him right for the last three weeks. He is still priced pretty much near what I’m willing to pay for him. Washington is strong against the run with the 10th ranked DVOA and the ninth-fewest rush yards allowed. One aspect that helps is Carson is 21st in receptions Mong running backs, an unheralded part of his role. Carson has earned a 12.2% target share and still leads the team in attempts and RZ attempts as well. The price leaves him out of cash for me but I’d play him in GPP without hesitation.

WR – I’m actually pretty excited for this matchup. DK Metcalf is now behind Travis Kelce for the receiving yards lead and squares up against a good secondary. The targets between he and Tyler Lockett might be dead even at 106, but Metcalf has a 40.1% to 27.5% lead in air yards share and leads in yards by almost 300. He should spend most of his time against Kendal Fuller. Not only is Fuller tiny compared to Metcalf, he’s allowing a 12.2 YPR. If Metcalf gets some snaps against Ronald Darby, it’s all over. He’s allowed a 14.3 YPR this season and would get toasted by Metcalf.

Lockett has fallen to the second fiddle role and there’s not much of a debate. He’s still too pricey for a player of his inconsistency. Locket has had two nuclear games, two 3x games and not a whole lot else for the salary involved. He’s targeted just as much as Metcalf but the production does not match week to week. Jimmy Moreland has quietly been strong over 63 targets with a 1.20 pPT and an 80.2 passer rating allowed.

TE – The playing time for Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister is split almost right down the middle, really hurting both players. Hollister has all of five more targets and they both have 20 receptions, so you’d just be hoping the one you played found the end zone. I’d slightly prefer Hollister since on the season he’s played far fewer snaps and still has more targets but it’s a thin play.

D/ST – Seattle has been playing some poor quarterbacks/offenses the last little bit but they have fully taken advantage. They’ve scored at least nine DK the past three weeks and have racked up three turnovers to go with 11 sacks and a safety. That trend may well continue with how many missing pieces the Washington offense could have this week.

Cash – Metcalf, D/ST

GPP – Wilson, Carson, Lockett, Hollister

Washington – Pace is 14th

QB – We’re not sure who’s starting at quarterback yet between Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins so we’ll double back here with more analysis when we know the starter. I doubt that I love either of them with Seattle playing better on the defensive side of the ball lately.

*Update* Smith has been ruled out and Haskins is going to start. With the amount of quarterbacks under $6,000, it’s extremely difficult to get down to Haskins. Seattle is only allowing 132 passing yards per game in their past three and this is another poor quarterback they can play well against.

RB – At a guess, Antonio Gibson won’t be quite ready to come back this week from a turf toe injury. That would leave J.D. McKissic as an option once again though the price did come up. McKissic and Peyton Barber split touches fairly equally but McKissic did much more with his. Barber barely averaged three yards per carry while McKissic was over six yards per attempt. McKissic only saw four total targets but that probably had a lot to do with Smith missing about half the game. Seattle is better in DVOA against the run at 11th and only three teams have given up fewer yards to the backs. However, they are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed which is directly in McKissic’s wheelhouse. Seeing him getting 11 carries was encouraging and I’m right back to him at the salary.

*Update* Gibson is doubtful which basically means he is out.

WR – With the Washington pass game going haywire on Sunday, no receiver did much of anything. This continues to be a one man show for me. Terry McLaurin has had a couple bad weeks here but talk about a spot to get off the hook. Scary Terry still has the highest air yards share among receivers who have played at least 10 games at 42.7%. He is still a top 15 receiver in PPR formats even with the past few weeks not being that kind to him. The Seahawks will likely try to get Shaquill Griffin on him as much as they can as Griffin only allows a 10.0 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. He would be the best chance of containing McLaurin.

TE – A prime beneficiary of McLaurin being quiet has been Logan Thomas over the past three weeks. He’s accumulated 20 targets and has caught 19 passes along with two touchdowns. The question sort of remains if McLaurin gets back to his normal production levels if Thomas can maintain. If the Washington defense can’t mute the Seattle offense, we may have to find out because they might have to throw a lot. Thomas has a 17.3% target share which is third on the team. If we like this one to shootout, it’s easy to funnel Washington through McLaurin, McKissic and Thomas.

D/ST – I’m going to be interested here at this salary. I talked about it in Wilson’s analysis but he’s been sacked a ton this year. The Washington defense is only five behind the league lead and is top-five overall in DVOA on the year. They come into this one very cheap and have some room to give up some points to still walk away with a solid DK score.

Cash – McKissic

GPP – McLaurin, Thomas, D/ST

Bears at Vikings, O/U of 47 (Vikings -3)

Bears – Pace is 12th

QB – Is…is Mitchell Trubisky playing sort of well lately? He’s not thrown a pick the past two games to go with four touchdowns and is completing over 73% of his passes. In the Detroit game, it didn’t translate to fantasy with just one touchdown and a fumble. The Houston game more than paid off with just about 25 DK points and this is going to be the third straight matchup Trubisky should be able to handle. Trubisky actually hasn’t been that incredibly poor by the pDB metric at 0.47, good for 16th. When a quarterback is this cheap and we know he does have a ceiling, he has to be considered. Now factor in that Minnesota gives up right about 20 DK points per game and he’s really not a poor option at salary. It should be noted that the Vikings have climbed to 12th in DVOA against the pass but that’s not a deal breaker here.

RB – Speaking of playing well lately, David Montgomery has entered the chat. He’s now hit 27 DK or higher in three straight games and the only thing the Bears did wrong is get him just 11 carries last week. He ripped off an 80-yard score the first play for the Bears offense and only got 10 more attempts….because reasons. This is what some thought the Bears were getting last year and Monty shredded the three easy matchups he just got. Minnesota isn’t much different with the 20th ranked DVOA defense against the run and the ninth-most rushing yards allowed to backs. He missed the first game against the Vikings but I’m very much still interested here. The price is a little scary with his career track record, but he’s a bell cow and deserves to be priced so high. The fact that the Vikings are still down linebacker Eric Kendricks is a nice boost for Monty as well.

WR – With flighty quarterback play comes flighty production, otherwise known as The Allen Robinson Career Arc. Almost any outcome is possible here and he’s coming off a ceiling game of 30 DK. There’s not an individual matchup that concerns me with A-Rob almost at all, it’s just down to quarterback play. The only main category he doesn’t lead for receiving on the Bears is RZ targets and he’s two behind Jimmy Graham. The price is up there and I think I’ll likely fade for other options unless I go with a Bears stack. It doesn’t much matter to me if he faces Cameron Dantzler, who has allowed 2.10 pPT so far.

Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller were mostly afterthoughts last week and they continue to be thin options. I’m basically always going o side with Mooney since he has the boom potential. Miller needs to be more of a PPR guy and that’s not what he is in the offense. Mooney is the only other player to be above 20% in air yards share and have an aDOT over 10.0. He would see a good bit of Chris Jones. In his partial playing time this year, he’s allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 122.9 passer rating. Both players are right around 100 PPR points but give me Mooney if either.

TE – Graham may have vultured a touchdown, but I’m all aboard Cole Kmet here. For the second straight week, Kmet saw seven targets and for the first time all year, he played over 80% of the snaps. It’s clearly starting to click a little for the rookie and the price hasn’t moved. If we can get a tight end that is playing those kinds of snaps and getting targeted heavily at this price, it’s silly to ignore him. The Vikings are a neutral matchup as far as DK points per game goes, but we’re just trying to keep ahead of the curve here. Chicago picked him high in the draft with other needs and with a bunch of tight ends on the roster at the time for a reason.

D/ST – Chicago is a hair expensive for my tastes. Almost 25% of their sacks came last week against Houston so that total is a bit inflated. The 14 turnovers forced is nothing special and neither is the price. I suppose you can argue that this squad knows the Vikings and might have some answers but they weren’t super impressive the first game. Their touchdown came from a Cordarrelle Patterson return. I like other options on any end of the salary spectrum better.

Cash – Monty, Kmet, Trubisky

GPP – Robinson, Mooney, D/ST

Vikings – Pace is 24th

QB – In the first game, Cousins was eight yards shy from the 300-yard bonus and threw two touchdowns. Cousins hasn’t been throwing interceptions much lately but he does have a lost fumble in every game over the past four. He’s balanced that with 10 touchdowns but the matchup doesn’t leap off the page statistically. Chicago is 10th in DVOA against the pass and they’ve only surrendered 17.9 DK points per game. Cousins has the efficiency working for him with the eighth-most touchdown passes and 10th highest pDB this year. He’s only 19th in attempts so if the Vikings passed more, Cousins might even be better than he is. We don’t need him in cash with an option $200 cheaper but that means Cousins checks the boxes as a solid GPP play.

RB – Last week Ghost hammered home the point that Dalvin Cook was the large field GPP play over Derrick Henry and I fully believe that’s the case this week as well. Henry is more expensive but has the nuts matchup. Cook has a perceived tough spot against the Bears, but it may not be as tough. Last week against the Bucs, Cook scored 22 DK and put up over 100 rushing yards on the best run defense in football. Defensive tackle Aikem Hicks for the Bears hasn’t missed a game but has been battling injury. If he were to miss, Cook’s spot gets vastly improved. As it is, Cook put up 114 scrimmage yards in the first Bears game. He’s unbelievably talented and if he comes at a fraction of the popularity, you must consider him in large GPP’s because he can certainly out-score Henry.

WR – It’s a little funny because both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson gave this defense fits last time. It’s one of the few games that both have paid off together this season. Thielen scored twice and Jefferson went for 8/135, both eclipsing 20 DK. They both flopped last week and it that could work to your favor in GPP. Not many will be on them. Saying Thielen lives on touchdowns isn’t exactly fair but Jefferson leads Thielen by over 300 yards receiving. The have almost an identical aDOT and Jefferson has a six point lead in PPR settings. Thielen evens the scoring by holding a 12-7 lead in touchdowns and no player has been targeted more in the end zone. Jaylon Johnson should be mostly tasked with Thielen and Johnson has given up a 15.0 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. That leaves Kyle Fuller with Jefferson and Fuller sits ninth in catch rate allowed a 55.6%. I’d go Thielen here since he’s cheaper.

TE – When you’re trailing in a game and you can target Tyler Conklin more than Thielen, you just have to do it. Kyle Rudolph has a chance to be back this week which would relegate Conklin back to the bench, but Irv Smith would be my favorite play in this spot. That’s not saying much as the tight ends don’t get a ton of work and the touchdown equity is hurt by Thielen. However, Smith would be cheap enough to look at. Even on just 28 snaps, Smith managed to go 4/63/1. Especially if Rudolph is out again, that’ll work against the Bears.

*Update* Rudolph is out again, so Smith is in play for sure.

D/ST – This really isn’t going to be a unit that I love over these last few weeks. They only have 21 sacks to go with the sixth-lowest pressure rate in football. On top of that, they aren’t exactly the cheapest price. Chicago is an offense that can be attacked with some defense but I’m not convinced the Vikings are one of them.

Cash – Smith

GPP – Cook, Jefferson, Thielen, Cousins, D/ST

Texans at Colts, O/U of 50.5 (Colts -7.5)

Texans – Pace is 13th

QB – Even with just 30 passing attempts, Deshaun Watson put up 16 DK last game. That was with his top three receivers to start the year out for the game and an egregiously dropped touchdown pass by one of his tight ends. This is to illustrate just how good Watson is, even if his own franchise hasn’t helped him very much the past couple seasons. This is another spot that is going to be very difficult for him since Indy is sixth in DVOA against the pass and are the ninth-best team in DK points allowed per game. Watson sits seventh in pDB, sixth in points per game, second in passing yards and ninth in touchdown passes. It’s depressing to see how little he has around him right now. Quietly, Watson is seventh among quarterbacks in rushing yards as well. If Brandin Cooks can make it back, maybe you can sell me on an underpriced Watson even in a tough matchup.

RB – David Johnson is expected back since he was a close contact instead of having Covid. That’s great news for him but it doesn’t mean I’m looking to play him. The Colts are also top 12 in DVOA against the run and Johnson just has flashed almost no tangible upside this year. Of his nine games played, just two would have hit 3x on his current salary. I’m sure he’ll get double-digit rush attempts but there’s nothing here that I’m interested in.

WR – This receiving corps still has potential even though I’m not exactly on Watson this week. I’m very likely to not have any Brandin Cooks, as he’s going to see Xavier Rhodes and that didn’t work out well the first time around. Cooks was held to just 11.5 DK by Rhodes and I’m of the opinion that Cooks is not an alpha in a passing game at this juncture. What I am interested in is Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen. The latter has come out of nowhere to be productive in his two games so far. He’ll face more of Rock Ya-Sin in this game and Hansen got Indy for 5/101 the first time around. Coutee is right about 54% in the slot so far so should face a good deal of Kenny Moore. Ya-Sin and Moore are definitely the corners to attack on this defense if any. Ya-Sin is my favorite to go after with a 1.90 pPT and a 100.9 passer rating allowed. Given the salary, I think Hansen may well be my favorite and could be played in all formats.

TE – As Ghost said in the Discord, I’m off this three-way split among the tight ends. Jordan Akins, Darren Fells and Pharaoh Brown could all play heavy snaps and none of them can catch. We can do better. Heck, a player like Kmet is only $300 more than Akins.

D/ST – This unit just got worked by Trubisky. They do have 31 sacks, which is respectable but only eight (!!) turnovers forced and that’s the least in the league. With the Colts not giving up a ton of sacks or pressure, I can’t see a route that makes it worth the punt.

Cash – Hansen, Coutee

GPP – Watson, Cooks

Colts – Pace is 17th

QB – You want a pivot off what I expect to be the popular option? How about #NoodleSZN at the exact same price point. Philip Rivers might be a noodle arm at this point but he can still produce fantasy points. I do have concerns about a true ceiling game from him and he certainly is not my cash option over Hurts. If the Colts can keep him under 35 attempts, there’s a good chance that’s how they play the game. With Houston’s issues in the secondary, Rivers might not need a ton of attempts to have a good game and he could out-score some of the chalkier quarterbacks. Rivers is somehow eighth in passing yards on the season and 15th in touchdown passes despite being 11th in attempts. I know exactly who I’m stacking with him as well.

RB – It’s not Jonathan Taylor in the Rivers stack, but talk about a smash spot for the rookie. He’s taking over this backfield even though the snap counts wouldn’t give it away. The past three games he’s not cleared 56% but he has a combined 55 carries and nine receptions. He tagged Houston for 22.5 DK on just 13 rush attempts last game and we saw the ceiling he possesses last week against Vegas. The scary part about the Vegas game? He was still used quite poorly early in the contest. In the first drive, JT had seven touches, scorched Vegas on four plays over 10 yards and totaled 60 scrimmage yards. He then saw just two more touches until just about halftime. I mean, come on. Feed. Him. MOAR. He still totaled 22 touches and with Houston dead last in rushing yards allowed to backs and 29th in DVOA against the run, I still love JT at his salary.

WR – You can call me a fish or whatever you want but I LOVE T.Y. Hilton this week. After the game two weeks ago, Hilton has played 17 games against the Texans and has 93 receptions, 1,647 yards and 11 touchdowns. This is his spot and has been for years. Hilton is playing his best football of the season and has cleared 18 DK over the past three weeks. It seems like Hilton and Rivers have clicked over that time period as Hilton has a 39.3% air yards share and a 22.1% target share. With Bradley Roby not there to stop him, Hilton could smash this price tag.

With Hilton hitting strong and JT doing his own work, Michael Pittman has been really quiet lately. He’s scored under 10 DK the past three games but that leaves him on the GPP radar. The Houston secondary poses little threat and Pittman has the second-most targets. He also has the most RZ targets over that span and one touchdown going his way would be a big difference maker. Hilton and Pittman will spend time on Vernon Hargreaves (2.00 pPT and a 113.9 passer rating) and Keion Crossen (only targets eight times so far). It’s not hard to love the Colts passing game.

TE – There’s not any reason I can see to play tight end roulette here. Trey Burton, Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox all play over 40% of the snaps and have way too low a floor to take a shot here.

D/ST – Of the highly priced defenses, Indy is absolutely in the running to play. Watson has been sacked the third-most times this season the Colts have generated 22 turnovers on the season. There’s no reason to not like them, even at the price. In the last game, they sacked Watson five times and got two turnovers.

Cash – Hilton, Taylor, D/ST

GPP – Rivers, Pittman

Lions at Titans, O/U of 51.5 (Titans -11)

Lions – Pace is 4th

QB – It sure looks like Chase Daniel is going to start for the Lions this week. That’s not great, even in a dynamite matchup. Tennessee is down to 28th in DVOA against the pass but Daniel may not be the ideal candidate to take advantage here. Over the course of 237 attempts, he has an 8:6 TD:INT ratio. His receiving corps is not great, the starting center has a fractured throat and I just don’t think it’s wise to go this low. We can play Trubisky if we go cheap.

*Update* Stafford is still up in the air but their starting center Frank Ragnow is out and that is a blow to the offense overall.

RB – There’s really only one option in this backfield and it’s D’Andre Swift. He only played about half the snaps in the first game back from a concussion and had 11 touches. Neither Kerryon Johnson nor Adrian Peterson had over six touches and Swift should play more this week if he’s healthy. He’s wildly talented and they Lions are likely to lean on him if they can. The Titans are 16th in DVOA against the run and give up the eighth-most DK points per game. Swift should fly under the radar here and he could easily got for over 20 DK with his 12.6% target share on top of his rushing workload. The only real issues are the functionality of the offense around him.

WR – The only person I’m willing to play from the corps is Marvin Jones. He’s got a 28.4% air yards share in the offense and is just under a 20% target share as well. Jones leads the team in EZ targets, is tied for the lead in touchdowns and is only two ZR targets off the lead. I don’t fear Malcolm Butler who has allowed four touchdowns and a 1.50 pPT over 98 targets this year. I fear the quarterback situation, but Jones is worthy of some GPP consideration.

TE – I don’t think it particularly matters who the quarterback is as T.J. Hockenson should be his usual safe and consistent self. He’s sitting just under a 16% target share on the season and leads in RZ targets for the Lions. Hockenson hasn’t surpassed 16 DK points this year so I leave him off my GPP builds almost every single week. That’s not going to change this week, even though the Titans have given up seven scores on the year. Hockenson is a cash only option but not one I personally play at cost.

D/ST – The Lions only have 12 takeaways on the year and Tennessee is tied for the fewest giveaways on the season. That doesn’t make sense to play, especially with the third-lowest pressure rate in football.

Cash – Hockenson

GPP – Swift, Jones

Titans – Pace is 7th

QB – The only reason I can come up with to not like Ryan Tannehill this week is if we get the same game script that the Titans had last week. They had control of the Jaguars very early on and never let it go, leading Tannehill to only throw it 24 times. He didn’t cross 215 yards and even though he threw two touchdowns, the DK result was disappointing at 16.5. The volume is the only concern with Tanny as he sits second in pDB at 0.59, 10th in points per game and fifth in touchdown passes on just the 18th most attempts. The salary is fair if he has to throw over 30 times but it’s hard not to project this as a run-heavy game.

RB – It’s a rare slate that I’m willing to pay $9,500 for Derrick Henry in any format, especially cash. This is the exception because I don’t see a game where Henry doesn’t get 22-25 touches against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Detroit is 26th in DVOA against the run and they’ve given up the fifth-most rushing yards in football to go along with being tied for the most rushing touchdowns. Not only does Tennessee need to continue to win down the stretch, Henry has an outside shot at 2,000 yards rushing. We don’t always love the lack of targets or receptions but this is the type of spot where it might not matter that much.

WR – Corey Davis, why did you do that to me man? After loving Davis all week, he flopped and that makes it two weeks in a row that I’ve been on the wrong Tennessee receiver. I still like Davis quite a bit because that game was such a bump in the road for him. A.J. Brown is the alpha but the metrics suggest they continue to be close. The air yards share is within 4% of each other and Davis trails by only eight targets on the year. Brown leads in PPR formats by 25 points but that five extra touchdowns makes the difference.

If we believe that Tennessee doesn’t throw very much, I think we have to spend up for Brown. They should make sure he gets his before the game is out of reach. He gets Amani Oruwariye who’s gotten tagged for a 2.00 pPT and a 14.9 YPR. With the injuries in the secondary, Davis faces Darryl Roberts who has a 1.90 pPT. It’s a long way of saying Detroit’s corners are very bad.

TE – Jonnu Smith didn’t score last week, so he flopped and that’s about his story this year. He’s only 24th in route percentage among tight ends, 18th in targets and 22nd in receptions. This isn’t really my favorite spot at all. I really think Henry just goes bonkers here and there will be almost no opportunity. The Lions give up the seventh-fewest DK points per game to the position even though they’ve allowed seven touchdowns. They are tied for the least receptions allowed and only the 49ers have allowed fewer yards.

D/ST – I guess they’re on the radar with Daniel at quarterback, but I hate it. They’re wildly expensive for a uni that has a bottom-five pressure rate and 14 sacks. The 18 turnovers is playable but the price is gross.

Cash – Henry, Henry, Henry

GPP – Brown, Davis, Tannehill, D/ST

Jaguars at Ravens, O/U of 47.5 (Ravens -12.5)

Jaguars – Pace is 3rd

QB – The Mustache is back in action, as Gardner Minshew came off the bench last week and looked comfortable for the most part. He was 18/31 but threw for almost 200 yards and a score. I know they didn’t look the part Monday night, but going against the Ravens on the road isn’t the easiest spot for Minshew. Baltimore is still 11th in DVOA against the pass and they got hit harder on the ground as far as touchdowns go Monday night. They still have just an 18:8 TD:INT ratio on the season and even with the cheapness and the negative game script, I can’t say I love Minshew. He’s only 23rd in pDB but he was 12th in points per game. You’d just have to hope the garbage time production piles up.

RB – James Robinson finally found a floor game in part because the game was out of control so quickly. The 12 carries was the lowest since Week 6 and you could easily see the same script this week. On paper, the Jacksonville defense is not a match for the Baltimore offense and that’s the biggest concern for Robinson. He does still have a safe-ish floor for touches as he hit 16 last week but the chances at production are dicey. Even after getting beat up on the ground by Cleveland, Baltimore is still inside the top 10 in DVOA against the run. I greatly prefer Taylor for just $100 more even with the popularity baked in.

WR – I’ve already seen some noise that Minshew being back in the lineup is a big boost for D.J. Chark but I’m not sure that tracks. Yes, Chark was the leading receiver in terms of target share (19.4%) and air yards share (32.2%) but it’s not like those were eye-popping numbers. Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault both were within three targets although Chark did miss a game. My point is Minshew spreads the ball around a bit more than folks seem to think. Sheanult will have his hands full with Marcus Peters, who is a flawed corner but better than the rookie. Cole will face Marlon Humphrey in the slot who has only allowed a 60% catch rate. Chark could have one of the better matchups. Jimmy Smith and most of the other corners are banged up right now. Even if they tried Peters on him, Chark could do some damage since Peters is a 1.90 pPT corner.

*Update* Smith is out, leaving the Ravens secondary one good corner short.

TE – Now that Minshew is back, Tyler Eifert is likely back to not being a factor. He barely eked out a 10% target share this first seven weeks and isn’t the security blanket that he was for Mike Glennon.

D/ST – I’m not saying the Baltimore offense doesn’t have some issues, but Jacksonville doesn’t have the defense to exploit them. Only three teams have fewer sacks than Jacksonville and they showed last week they can’t stop the run. I’ll pass.

Cash – None

GPP – Minshew, Chark, Robinson

Ravens – Pace is 30th

QB – Baltimore needs to win out in a big way and Lamar Jackson is looking more like the 2019 version lately. Over the past two games, he’s rushed for 218 yards and three touchdowns. That’s to go along with three total touchdown passes on just 34 attempts. Jackson should be able to pick apart this defense however he wants to since they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. Jackson was over $8,000 constantly last year and if he’s going to run like this, he’s just far too cheap. I think he may threaten Patrick Mahomes for the best odds for the top quarterback score.

RB – Gus Edwards tilted us off the face of the Earth Monday but I’m still about J.K. Dobbins here. He played over 60% of the snaps and had 13 carries to seven for Edwards, even though Edwards scored twice. This is what we saw before Dobbins caught Covid and Mark Ingram played just two snaps last week. Dobbins is the lead dog and Edwards will get some run as well. Only the Cowboys and Texans have allowed more rushing yards to running backs and that doesn’t count the 12 rushing touchdowns. I prefer Dobbins but in large field GPP’s, Edwards could smash his paltry price. That’s especially true if the game gets out of hand and Edwards gets a couple more chances.

WR – With the likelihood that the running game is going to do the heavy lifting in this game, I’m not sure how interested I will be in Marquise Brown. Hollywood does own the target share lead for the team at 24.7% but 80 targets on the season is not that impressive. In fact, that’s 37th among receivers. Still, the matchup is glorious. You just have to know what you’re getting into. If he gets six targets, you’ll probably be lucky and he’s going to need to break a big play and score to pay off. That leaves him and Willie Snead in GPP only for me. The Jaguars will be without Sidney Jones, who is the best corner they had left.

We had a Covid scare earlier in the week but the reports are that all receivers will be eligible to play here so the original analysis would stand.

TE – I will almost always side with Mark Andrews if I stack with Lamar because I feel he has more stability in the passing game. Andrews had been playing a higher percentage of snaps lately after the Ravens lost Nick Boyle and his matchup is wonderful as well. Jacksonville is one of two teams that have allowed double-digit touchdowns to the position and Andrews is sixth in route percentage on the year at 89.3%. The fact he’s $100 cheaper than Brown makes it even more attractive.

D/ST – I prefer Indy as I think they have better chances to get to the quarterback, but Baltimore is perfectly fine as well. They have forced 19 turnovers and have 28 sacks, but they are also banged up a little bit. Let’s see who’s tracking as active for them before making the call here.

Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Andrews

GPP – Edwards, Snead

Patriots at Dolphins, O/U of 41.5 (Dolphins -1)

Patriots – Pace is 25th

QB – I detest talking about Cam Newton and this New England offense. It’s one of the worst in the league, and Newton is 26th in passing yards and 35th in passing touchdowns. The only reason you play Cam is the rushing production since he has 11 rushing touchdowns and is third in rushing yards among quarterbacks. That’s about all I can say for him at this point and that’s not much. Cam is averaging right abut 180 passing yards and Miami is fifth in DVOA against the pass. If Cam rushes for 50 yards and a score, he can hit 3x at least. However, I’m going to play what I suspect is the chalk at quarterback in cash and am mostly uninterested in Cam in any format this week.

RB – Damien Harris practiced in full and he’s the only trustworthy back in this offense as far as touches. Even in a blowout, Harris still had 11 carries and he’s not been under that number since Week 6. Miami is 23rd in DVOA against the run and if we think the game stays close, Harris likely has at least 15 carries. The Dolphins are under 100 yards per game to the backs but this is about the only way the Patriots can move the ball. I don’t want to mess with Sony Michel or James White as their roles are wildly unpredictable.

WR – If we don’t like Cam, it stands to reason that any receiver is not that appealing. I would still lean towards Jakobi Meyers as he’s playing about 40% of his snaps in the slot. That leaves him off Xavien Howard and Byron Jones and that would be the matchup we’re looking for. Meyers would face Nik Needham although statistically, he has improved. Needham is up to a 59.1% catch rate allowed and a 70.7 passer rating over 44 targets. I’m not looking to play Damiere Byrd or N’Keal Harry on anything but showdown slates. With the boundary corners that Miami boasts, this is a pretty easy spot to look elsewhere on the main slate.

TE – The Patriots aren’t using the tight end in the offense this year, and now Ryan Izzo is on IR to put the cherry on top.

D/ST – This is probably the best play from the New England side. I’m sure you’re going to hear it plenty the next couple days but Bill Belichick is now 21-5 against rookie quarterbacks. This is after he and the Patriots defense just smashed the Chargers and Justin Herbert was playing lights out before that. New England has forced 19 turnovers so far and I expect a couple more this week.

Cash – D/ST

GPP – Harris, Cam

Dolphins – Pace is 27th

QB – Last week I knew Tua Tagovailoa had some appeal playing catchup against the Chiefs and he certainly did with 31 DK points. I don’t expect anything close to that this week because they won’t be in the same exact game script. Tua is going to have his hands full with Belichick and his offense is coming into this one banged up a little bit. On his own merits, Tua is playing decent football. He’s at a 0.42 pDB and does have just two turnovers in parts of seven games. Tua is not a force for fantasy on most weeks since he only has a total of 10 touchdowns and it’s sort of hard to see where any ceiling is coming from here. We can play Tua another week.

RB – As long as Myles Gaskin is out, this is a tough spot to love. I suppose that is Salvon Ahmed makes it back, he would change things. Miami has shown that they will use a bell cow back no matter where they are on the depth chart. Even DeAndre Washington had 15 touches last week and he wasn’t even on the team to start the year. Ahmed hasn’t played in three weeks but the Patriots run defense doesn’t pose a huge threat on paper. New England is 28th in DVOA against the run. With Ahmed under $5,000 and Gaskin under $6,000, we could get a boatload of touches for cheap. Ahmed practiced Thursday but was wearing a non-contact jersey.

*Update* Ahmed is questionable and this one may go all the way up to kick on Sunday

WR – Both DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant were limited in practice, a good sign they could play. Parker leads the team in target share at 20.8% and now the team will be without one of their top red zone threats. Parker should get Stephon Gilmore and I’m siding with Gilmore here. He’s down to a 1.60 pPT and we’re relying on a rookie to get him the ball. Grant is not really a big enough factor to get behind in the passing game.

Regardless of who else is healthy, Lynn Bowden looks to be a significant salary saver again. The last three weeks, his snaps have increased all the way up to 77% last week and he’s playing in the slot almost 60% of the time. The targets have followed the past two weeks with four and nine. Yes, last week had a lot to do with Dolphins injuries but he’s so cheap and the role is growing fast. At this price, 5-7 targets could make him a great play. He’s in the slot almost 60% of the time and that means Jonathan Jones, who’s allowing a catch rate over 67% over 73 targets this year.

TE – It sure looks like Mike Gesicki will be out this week so we could have a cheap tight end option here. Both Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe are on the radar and both play about 50% of the snaps. Neither has been utilized as a target hog this year and Smythe holds a slim lead in snaps overall and targets. Even the RZ and EZ targets are basically the same. I would lean Smythe slightly but it’s not likely the best play ever as we could play the wrong tight end here.

*Update* Gesicki is actually being listed as questionable. I likely still don’t go here, but it seems that they feel more confident that he could play.

D/ST – They might be $700 more but you can really make a strong argument that the Dolphins defense is the better play than New England. Tua is already better than Cam in my mind, although that’s a low bar to clear right now. The Dolphins have racked up 34 sacks and are tied for the most takeaways in football. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if both defenses scored well, but Miami has the easier matchup.

Cash – D/ST, Bowden

GPP – Parker, Gesicki (if active)

49ers at Cowboys, O/U of 45 (49ers -3)

49ers – Pace is 21st

QB – I wish I had any confidence in playing Nick Mullens. The Cowboys can be had and have given up a 25:7 TD:INT ratio on the season and I fully believe that coach Kyle Shanahan can tear that defense apart. However, Mullens could easily sabotage this spot. He’s sitting at a 0.36 pDB which is 30th in the league. He’s only thrown 10 touchdowns and has only hit 3-4x on this salary just twice in his starts. I could maybe get on board for GPP’s but honestly don’t think we need to dive this far down the ladder.

RB – It could be mostly the Jeff Wilson show if Raheem Mostert is out. Wilson had 12 touches last week and they love him I the RZ. He’s tied for the team lead in attempts despite playing just nine games so you know the chances of a score are decent. It doesn’t seem like Jerick McKinnon or Tevin Coleman are factors in the run game right now, but that can change at the drop of a hat. Dallas is 23rd in DVOA against the run and are tied for the second-mis rushing touchdowns allowed. Mostert has to be out for me to be interested.

*Update* Mostert has no injury designation and would still be my favorite 49ers back, but that doesn’t say much

WR – With the news that Deebo Samuel is out again, it’s really hard to not like Brandon Aiyuk. The rookie has been absolutely on fire his past five games, racking up at least 19.7 DK in that time. He’s leading the receivers in snap rate at 85.5% and has a 22.9% share of the targets. Additionally, he leads in air yards share at 32.2%. It looks like Rashard Robinson would draw the assignment and through 19 targets, Robinson has a 129.1 passer rating allowed. This is a long way of saying Aiyuk is really in a smash spot, even with flighty quarterback play.

Kendrick Bourne and possibly even Richie James could enter the punt conversation. Bourne played almost 90% of the snaps last week when Deebo exited after just one snap and saw seven targets. James only played about 30% of the snaps and is even thinner considering who’s throwing the ball. Bourne really has my eye since he’s only $600 more and he’s second in RZ targets on the team. Aiyuk and Bourne are really my primary targets in the passing game this week.

TE – We’ll need clarity here. If (and that’s a big if right now) George Kittle is healthy and gets cleared to play, he’s immensely cheap. Make no mistake, the 49ers will not let him play unless he’s fully healthy. He and Aiyuk could do some damage against this porous passing defense in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a little better than average to the position, but Jordan Reed would make my GPP list if Kittle is out. The production is up and down but he has five, four, six and six targets over the past four games. At $3,200 I’ll take a look.

*Update* Kittle is out

D/ST – I still prefer the Patriots defense, but the 49ers are an option right next to them in salary. They generate pressure 24% of the time and have forced 18 turnovers. Despite all their injuries, they also only allow about 22 points per game. The Dallas offense certainly has plenty of flaws and San Francisco could exploit them.

Cash – Aiyuk, D/ST

GPP – Mostert, Reed, Bourne, Wilson

Cowboys – Pace is 1st

QB – If we couldn’t get a ceiling game from Andy Dalton when the Cowboys scored 30 against the Bengals, it’s hard to see how we get one now. Dalton is still just 31st in pDB at 0.34 and only has nine touchdown passes. His deep ball completion rate is just 26.3% and the matchup is not ideal. The DVOA against the pass is only 13th but the 49ers have a 21:11 TD:INT ratio. We’ve only seen Dalton hit 20 DK points once in his starts and I don’t think we need him in our lineups.

RB – The snaps for Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard have been closer than you might think after the bye week. In those four weeks, Pollard has played at least 30% of the snaps and he’s taken 28 rushing attempts to 61 for Zeke. He’s also taken five targets to 14 for Zeke so while it’s clear who the number one is, Pollard is creeping in just a bit on the workload. After last week’s flop, Zeke did come down to $6,100 and the price looks enticing. The matchup does not as San Fran is seventh in DVOA against the run and they’ve given up the fifth-least rushing yards to backs. With Pollard taking some work, injuries on the offense and matchup, I can’t get behind the Zeke play.

WR – We’ve attacked the 49ers defense in the slot this year and CeeDee Lamb fits that bill perfectly. He’s in the slot 85% of the time and gets either Emmanuel Moseley (if active) or Dontae Johnson. If it’s Johnson, he’s been targeted 28 times and has allowed a 100.3 passer rating. Moseley isn’t much better at a 101.8 passer rating and a 1.80 pPT so the matchup is excellent. The 18.2% target share is plenty good enough to get the job done at his salary.

Amari Cooper is much more expensive but has had a serious floor with Dalton under center. He’s scored no lower than 14 DK and has at least four receptions, 43 yards and/or a touchdown in every single game. The matchup is more difficult against Jason Verrett who has only allowed a 1.50 pPT and a 10.3 YPR. Michael Gallup should see mostly Richard Sherman or Verrett, so his matchup isn’t great either. Sherman has only been targeted 28 times since he’s missed some time but has allowed an 11.5 YPR and a 67.9% completion rate. Trusting Gallup in this spot is not exactly what I’m looking to do. I would be looking towards a very cheap Lamb or Cooper in this game.

TE – Dalton Schultz always seems to be a “safe” option and with Dalton starting the past four games, he does have a 13.9% target share. What is interesting at his salary is he leads in RZ targets in those four games with six. Now, the receiver trio has a combined 13 EZ targets to just two for Schultz. The angle of Gallup and Cooper being silenced on the boundaries could funnel more targets to Lamb and Schultz. The only real issue is the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards and DK points per game to the position. I would prefer to play Lamb and likely find other cheap tight ends.

D/ST – They went bonkers last week in what was an excellent call from Ghost, and there’s still some small potential here. I don’t like the price that much but Mullens can melt down at any point. My fear is the Cowboys just get run on and with only 24 sacks on the season, there’s not a lot of safety with this pick.

Cash – Lamb, Cooper

GPP – Schultz, D/ST, Gallup

Jets at Rams, O/U of 44 (Rams -17.5)

Jets – Pace is 11th

I’m going to make this very simple – don’t play Jets. The Rams are ranked 3rd in overall DVOA and the Jets are the worst offense in football. Jalen Ramsey will almost surely take Breshad Perriman or Denzel Mims out of the picture entirely while Jamison Crowder has been a ghost outside of two touchdowns against the Raiders. WE have other teams to pull values from and this is just nothing that I’m interested in. Even the backfield is a split between Frank Gore and Ty Johnson. I’m fully subscribed to #NeverJets this week.

Cash – None

GPP – None

Rams – Pace is 18th

QB – I’m much happier to get behind this side of the game, although Jared Goff might not be the optimal route to take. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Jets and their dead last DVOA against the pass can stop him or coach Sean McVay. It’s more of the fact that I don’t think Goff gets the opportunity we want from a player of his salary. Just look at last week. The Rams controlled that game from the word go and the running game was going nuts. Thus, Goff only threw it 25 times and didn’t cross 140 yards passing. LA is the heaviest favorite on the slate and are at home, so I’m only using Goff in GPP. His 0.42 pDB is 23rd in the league and only has 18 touchdowns (17th) and 53 RZ attempts (20th). He could flop or throw four touchdowns in this spot.

RB – It took a lot longer than some expected, but Cam Akers has to be solidified as the starter in this backfield. Over the past two weeks, he has 53 touches and is just under 300 scrimmage yards. Even the week before, he rushed for 84 yards on just nine touches. It is worth noting that the Jets actually have been solid against the run. They rank eighth in DVOA and they’re only mid-pack in rushing yards allowed to the back. The Rams are more talented and their run game should win out even in the “bad” spot it is, but I would rather fellow rookie Jonathan Taylor. Akers might have a little more security but the matchup for Taylor gives him the slight edge.

WR – Since we suspect there could be some danger in Goff’s number of attempts, I’m sticking to only Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods this week. Kupp still holds very slight edges in target share, RZ and EZ targets and receptions. Woods has two more receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, to give Woods the slight edge in PPR settings. I typically just fall with whoever is cheaper unless there’s a severe mismatch individually. I don’t believe that’s the case this week because they are both in good spots. Kupp should draw Javelin Guidry, who I had to look to make sure that was a real name. He’s played very little this season and containing Kupp seems like a bit of a long shot. Blessuan Austin will be mostly tasked with Woods and Austin is giving an 11.5 YPR and 94.1 passer rating over 55 targets so far. I’m not likely to double stack this offense with the salaries involved knowing they could throw it under 30 times, leaving it an MME offense for me.

TE – Tyler Higbee is firmly in the touchdown or bust category, as he hasn’t crossed double-digit DK points in any game he’s not scored. Considering that’s only happened in two games so far, it’s been rough to play him unless it’s a showdown. Higbee only runs a route 53.6% of the time and that’s 28th in the league. He’s too pricey in my eyes to hope he scores, even in a great matchup. The Jets lead in touchdowns given up to the position so perhaps in a Goff stack it could work. That’s just not my first priority this week.

D/ST – If you can possibly afford them, play them. It’s that easy.

Cash – Akers

GPP – Goff, Woods, Kupp, D/ST, Higbee

Eagles at Cardinals, O/U of 49 (Cardinals -6)

Eagles – Pace is 8th

QB – I’ve made references to who I think the chalk will be in cash games a few times at quarterback. I think it will come from this game, and since Jalen Hurts is under $6,000 he’s likely my choice for cash. He ran the ball eighteen times last week and went over 100 yards. I don’t really expect that latter part, but it does show where the ceiling is and how willing he was to take off. This really just becomes easy math. Let’s set Hurts at 50 yards rushing and 150 yards passing. That’s 11 DK already, basically 2x. If he scores a touchdown of any kind, that puts him at 15-17 DK which is closing in on 3x. I think those yardage marks are a little low, so it shows how easy it could be for Hurts to hit 3x. If he scores two touchdowns, we’re cooking with gas. Arizona isn’t the easiest matchup as they sit ninth in DVOA against the pass. However, the Saints are top five and Hurts passed that test just fine for fantasy purposes.

*Update* With another quarterback at $5,900 active, Hurts will not be popular at all I’m betting.

RB – Do we actually have some life from Miles Sanders?? The snaps were finally over 60% (81% o be exact) and he had 18 touches, the most since Week 11. I’m not sure why it took the backup being in to finally utilize Sanders but I’ve found it best to not try to get inside the heads of Philly coaches. Nothing good comes from that exercise. Anyways, Sanders is up there in price but a ground-based offense with a running threat at quarterback opens up the lanes. Arizona is just 15th in DVOA and they’ve given up almost 1,700 scrimmage yards with 13 combined scores. I think Sanders is a wonderful GPP play but I do not trust him in cash whatsoever. There are many better plays than him in cash.

WR – I almost have no interest in any receiver. Travis Fulgham has been worked out of the rotation almost completely at just 11% of the snaps. Jalen Reagor saw just four targets last week and even though Patrick Peterson has not played well for Arizona, he can handle the rookie. Peterson’s 119.3 passer rating allowed and 2.10 pPT is an appealing set of metrics to attack when we have a better receiver.

Alshon Jeffery might garner some attention but I am loathe to trust any receiver that saw one target the week before, especially from a running quarterback. Jeffery was also under 50% of the snaps and I simply can’t get behind that. Greg Ward is minimum price and did see the most looks out of his receiving corps but that’s faint praise. He’ll play the slot which means he faces Byron Murphy and statistics suggest that’s an advantage for Murphy. He’s only allowed a 1.40 pPT and a 10.3 YPR on 72 targets. Stacking Hurts seems fairly difficult.

TE – If you must stack Hurts, this is the position to likely go for. Dallas Goedert led in targets last week with six and is playing nearly 90% of the snaps. Philly played a lot of two tight end sets last week with Goedert and Zach Ertz both over 70% of the snaps. Ertz managed to take three targets all of eight yards so he is not of any interest. On top of that, Arizona is a top-five team in DK points allowed per game and has only given up three scores. Goedert was able to churn out 43 yards on four receptions so he’d be my main sacking partner with Hurts. I think it’s better to play Hurts solo in cash and go elsewhere in GPP.

D/ST – It looks like a certain quarterback is running again, and the amount of pressure Philly gets could backfire and flush him. I won’t play Philly this week.

Cash – Hurts

GPP – Sanders, Goedert

Cardinals – Pace is 2nd

QB – It didn’t amount to much but Kyler Murray running the ball 13 times last week was an excellent sign for him. He almost matched the total of his previous three games combined and the price has come back down to Earth after three straight sub-par outings. Make no mistake, Kyler is just an average to maybe below-average fantasy asset if he’s not running. I’m not saying he can’t be a good traditional quarterback at some point, but that’s not where he is right now. If he can’t run, he won’t be worth the price. Now that he is, Kyler is likely a little too cheap. Philly is 22nd in DVOA and have a 19:4 TD:INT ratio. Lastly, the Eagles are likely down their starting corners Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox this week. The path is there for Kyler to smash this price tag.

*Update* Maddox is out, Slay is questionable but doesn’t change any outlook on Kyler.

RB – I’ve played the Cardinals the last few weeks that if Kyler can’t run, Kenyan Drake was the route to take. I’m encouraged by the 23 carries Drake got last week even with Kyler running more than 10 times as well. Drake hasn’t been wildly efficient this year and is still not getting a ton of passing game work, but he’s extremely cheap. He also needs the game script to go his way. Look a the last four weeks. In the two games they lost, he carried the ball a total of 22 times. When they won, he carried it 55 times. That’s a pretty striking difference. I feel like this game should be competitive so I’d be comfortable playing Drake, just not in cash game settings. Chase Edmonds is always on the edge of the radar since he’ll typically get about 6-10 touches but we don’t need him with the Tampa value.

WR – For the first time in a few weeks, I’m on board with DeAndre Hopkins. I’m trusting his quarterback a bit more and the Eagles secondary A. wasn’t great in the first place and B. is really banged up right now. Nuk clearly owns this passing game with a 29.1% target share and a 32.1% air yards share. Only three receivers have more targets than Hopkins on the season and he’s back under $8,000. Hopkins checks all the boxes this week and has seen 24 targets the past two games. He could go very overlooked with folks jamming in pieces from the last game of the day.

I don’t think we need to dive too far past Hopkins but Christian Kirk could be in play for large field GPP. With the Eagles down both starting corners, Kirk is going to face off against the fourth-best corner on Philly. That’s probably Jalen Mills as Nickell Roby-Coleman slides over to Hopkins or at least tries to. Kirk is the only other Cards receiver that has over 12% of the air yards share. These are educated guesses since Philly hasn’t been this desperate in the secondary this year. There’s a strong likelihood that they can’t stop Hopkins and he’s easily the best target here.

TE – Over the past four games, Dan Arnold has scored four times. That’s fairly impressive for a player that has been targeted a total of 12 times and has six receptions in those games. It’s not a limb to go out on but I doubt he continues to score on 66.7% of his receptions. Arnold is still under a 7.5% share of the targets and only five RZ and four EZ looks. Philly does struggle against the tight end with eight scores allowed but it’s a thin play for $3,500.

D/ST – It’s not too hard to see a path for success here. The Cards have 38 sacks and are a top five team in pressure rate, which could be an issue for a rookie quarterback. Hurts certainly handled pressure well last week but every game gives other teams more tape. They’ve also generated 18 turnovers and it wouldn’t be a shock if Hurts gave them one or two.

Cash – Nuk, Kyler

GPP – D/ST, Drake, Arnold

Chiefs at Saints, O/U of 51.5 (Chiefs -3)

Chiefs – Pace is 15th

QB – It’s a rare quarterback that can throw three picks and still end up scoring 24.6 DK points, but Patrick Mahomes is a rare dude. He’s only third in pDB but leads in yards, is third in touchdowns, fourth in attempts and second in points per game. I would have been more excited to play him if I thought the Saints could keep up, but it looks like at least one more week of Taysom Hill. Gross. While opponent basically doesn’t matter for Mahomes, I was hoping for Drew Brees to make this a shootout of all shootouts. Mahomes is an elite play in all formats, just like always.

*Update* Someone on the Saints is back…..

RB – It sure looks like we can put to rest any thoughts about Clyde Edwards-Helaire losing the job to Le’Veon Bell. After not seeing the field for a week due to an illness, CEH played right about 75% of the snaps this past week and hit 14.1 DK without scoring. The Saints aren’t a defense to attack on paper. They’ve barely allowed 1,200 scrimmage yards and are the best DVOA against the run in the league. With CEH, it’s sort of the same story as last week. He’s a talented back with some issues during his rookie campaign that touched the ball 21 times last week. That’s in the best offense in football. He’s under $6,000. Everyone will try to jam in the passing game, and one of these weeks CEH is going for two scores. I want to have some exposure for the game he had against the Raiders in Week 11.

WR – You want to talk about ceiling, just look at Tyreek Hill las week. He touched the ball four times and scored 26.1 DK points while generating 111 scrimmage yards and hit pay dirt twice. There’s just not a ton of players capable of doing that on a weekly basis. Hill owns nearly 40% of the Chiefs air yards share and no corner from New Orleans should scare us. Janoris Jenkins runs a 4.4, Marshon Lattimore has been getting cooked all year and runs a 4.3….you get the picture. Additionally, Hill moves all over the formation so it’s not like just one corner will contain him.

With how many targets are getting soaked up through the rest of the offense, I don’t love Sammy Watkins or DeMarcus Robinson. Watkins is under a 15% target share and Robinson is lower than that. We can see the floor when both players combined for four targets last week. The best leverage on the passing game is CEH or hoping Watkins goes 4/65/1 or something along those lines.

TE – I get that Travis Kelce is expensive for a tight end, but that’s the price you pay for the leader in yardage. Kelce sits at 1,250 receiving yards on the year which is tops and his PPR scoring is only 20 points behind Davante Adams. Suddenly he doesn’t seem all that expensive. We talk all the time about not playing double tight end. However, I would be willing to take that route with Kelce in all honesty. If you pick a cheap player like Cole Kmet and then still play Kelce, I’m not sure I could completely fault you. Kelce shouldn’t be as “cheap” as he is when comparing to receivers. He’s really unstoppable and if I’m fading Henry this week, it’s to stack up the Chiefs offense which we should be doing every single week.

D/ST – I certainly don’t think they’re a terrible options because I can see them forcing plenty of turnovers. The price is really no man’s land for me though. I like a lot of defenses right below and above their salary, so I doubt I land there much. If they can force the Saints out of their comfort zone they will likely pay off their salary with a 23.4% pressure rate and 20 turnovers.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP – CEH, D/ST, Watkins

Saints – Pace is 31st

QB – The Saints did open the window for Brees to return, but reading the tea leaves it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be this week. Enter Hill, who was decent for fantasy last week. Hill easily had his best yardage day as a starter, throwing for 291 yards in a comeback effort. That script should follow him here and he still kicked in another 33 rushing yards. Hill actually has a completion rate over 72% in his games but he’s also logged seven turnovers to go with nine total touchdowns. We saw the upside the opposing quarterback for the Chiefs has last week in Tua. Hill represents that same idea and he’s slightly easier to make a game stack work over Mahomes.

*Update* Brees has been named the starter for this game and is just incredibly cheap.

RB – I was hoping that we got Brees back in large part because I would have felt Alvin Kamara was in a smash spot. Kansas City is 30th in DVOA against the run and have given up the eighth-most rushing yards to backs. They have also allowed the third-most receiving yards, which Kamara had been lacking. However, he saw 10 targets this past week which was an exciting step with Taysom at quarterback. I mean, it’s about time you utilize one of the best backs in the NFL. Since Kamara was struggling for a a few games with Hill, his price has plummeted. We don’t get Kamara at this price very often and feel like he’s going to get the valuable targets. With the Saints underdogs here, I’d be surprised if Kamara doesn’t see a bunch of targets and I really think he might be my favorite Saint.

*Update* With Brees back, Kamara is the utter and stone lock chalk.

WR – Michael Thomas has played more like the MT we expected without Brees. That’s in large part because he’s been healthy now but it’s still weird to think about. In the four games with Hill, Thomas is up to a 33.5% target share and a 47.8% share of the air yards. Even last week when Kamara got more involved, Thomas had another eight targets. He’s been playing on the outside and on paper he has a tough spot against Bashaud Breeland. The Chiefs corner has been targeted 47 times and is 11th in passer rating allowed, eighth in catch rate allowed and 16h in pPT. Those are impressive marks but it’s hard not to lean Thomas in the matchup.

Tre’Quan Smith could wind up gaining some attention as a punt. His snap percentage has gone up massively the past couple of weeks, right up there with Emmanuel Sanders. Smith has 12 targets the past two games and Sanders has 11, but Sanders is $1,000 more expensive and the DK points are almost dead equal. If they’re so close, let’s just play Smith. He’s split his snaps between outside and slot almost evenly. The Chiefs can switch corners between these two receivers so the individual matchup isn’t as important. They would switch off between Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed. It’s the fact that Smith is over 80% of the snaps the script leads to more throwing. He works well in any lineup you have going.

*Update* Well, blow that all up. Thomas is a surprise inactive and that’s going to bump everyone up a notch. Both Manny and Tre’Quan are massively cheap with all of Thomas’ work left up for grabs. That also locks Kamara in for a massssssssive target share and given the cost involved, I think you could get away with a Saints stack even in cash. I do think it could make more sense to play Hurts so you don’t have Brees, Kamara and a Saints pass catcher but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted to break my rule this week of no stacks in cash.

TE – Another cheap way to get exposure to the Saints offense is Jared Cook. I’m not typically a big fan but he does have some relatively strong touchdown equity. He’s second in RZ targets and tied for the most EZ targets with Hill under center. Cook certainly isn’t the same style athlete that Mike Gesicki is, but the young goat scored twice last week against these Chiefs. Cook has found the end zone in each of the past two games and that’s been an issue for Kansas City all year. They’ve allowed the fourth-most yards and seven scores. I could certainly understand a Chiefs stack with a super cheap run back from the Saints or possibly both Smith and Cook. Either way, we want some love from this game.

D/ST – Ok, maybe not every aspect of this game is in play.

Cash – Kamara, Brees, Sanders

GPP – Smith, Cook

Core Four

Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Brandon Aiyuk

If I get sent a cash lineup without Henry and Kamara to start, I’m not giving it my approval. I’m slightly kidding, but I can’t emphasize just how important those two building blocks are in my eyes. Kamara is around $1,000 too cheap and even at the sky high price, Henry checks far too many boxes to worry about no receptions this week. Fournette is not an exciting choice, but RoJo is expected to be out and the Bucs insist Fournette will start. He’s flashed fantasy upside and the price is too sweet to pass up. Lastly, Aiyuk is in a total smash spot without Deebo and Kittle. He’s going to be very popular and we should ride the wave.

Primary Game Stacks

KC/NO – Any player in this game can be on the radar, and Kamara with Chiefs skill players is where I’m starting. I’ll rotate in Mahomes and Brees, and that will dictate the other pieces.

DET/TEN – Henry, Brown, Tannehill, Davis, Stafford, Jones, Swift, Hockenson

PHI/ARI – Nuk, Kyler, Goedert, Sanders, Hurts, Drake, Kirk

Secondary Game Stacks

SF/DAL – Aiyuk, Mostert, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz (This is mostly working around the other stacks)

CHI/MIN – A-Rob, Monty, Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, Trubisky, Cousins Kmet, Smith

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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