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NFL DFS Top Plays

NFL DFS Week 6 – Cash Game Checkdown

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Running hot, baby! A huge output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games and I believe the best week of my NFL DFS career. We absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots and shoutout to our boy, Pickett’s Picks for a massive takedown on the MNF slate! Congratulations, buddy! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (35%), Darrell Henderson Jr. (40%), Darrel Williams (25%), Jonathan Taylor (25%), Khalil Herbert (25%), Austin Ekeler (20%), Davante Adams (30%), Tee Higgins (25%), Jakobi Meyers (25%), Terry McLaurin (20%), Mark Andrews (25%), Ricky Seals-Jones (20%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD)

It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 29th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 54 points (the highest on the slate). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns and a little bit more rushing equity than usual with no Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start.

Lamar Jackson ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD)

Honestly, I’m not incredibly high on Lamar Jackson after his career game on Monday night, but if he’s going to be 30-40% owned in cash games, it’s hard not to lock-button Lamar Jackson in a 52-point total game against the Chargers. The model loves Lamar Jackson, grading him over a 3.2x value (in comparison to his salary) and I will not argue with you if Jackson is your QB of choice in your cash games. My personal feeling is that this is more of a slower-paced, running game-plan for Baltimore as the Chargers’ bleed production to opposing rushing attacks (worst in the NFL at ~5.6 yards per carry allowed).

Taylor Heinicke ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

If you prefer the salary-relief, QB route, look no further than Taylor Heinicke. We spoke about the crazy-high total in this game when discussing Mahomes and the same situation applies to Mr. Heinicke, except the matchup is even better than Patrick Mahomes’ as the Chiefs’ grade 31st in pass-defense DVOA. As much as I don’t really trust Taylor Heinicke (which is a huge factor in a cash game lineup), this Kansas City defense is non-existent and shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Washington passing attack. Like Mahomes, Heinicke also offers a bit of a higher floor with his legs.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)

Ekeler is riding one helluva hot streak and I don’t see that stopping this weekend against Baltimore who’s given up an average of six receptions per game to opposing running backs. We don’t expect Ekeler to smash via the run, but his dual-threat ability to fill up the fantasy box scores make him 100% cash viable in this high-totaled matchup against the Ravens.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

We always want to use Vegas as a guideline when building our NFL DFS lineups and there’s no better positive gamescript for a running back than being a double-digit, home favorite. Well, that narrative surrounds our boy, Jonathan Taylor this week as they host the Houston Texans and their 30th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA). If you’re not locking in Michael Pittman, roll with Jonathan Taylor who currently has a 100+ all-purpose yard player prop in addition to (-200) odds to score a touchdown. There’s not many safer plays at the running back position than Jonathan Taylor, despite all-pro guard, Quenton Nelson on IR.

Kareem Hunt ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

No Nick Chubb, all systems go for Kareem Hunt who should be primed up for another blow-up performance against Arizona’s run defense giving up over 5.4 yards per carry to opposing backs. Lock him in!

Khalil Herbert ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD)

With Damien Williams on the COVID-19 list, it’s go-time for rookie running back, Khalil Herbert. We’ll likely all need the value at one of the running back positions and it’s very likely 50% of the NFL DFS cash game field locks in Herbert… let’s do the same.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Darrell Henderson Jr., Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Davante Adams, if you can afford him, you play him. Ridiculous pricing over at FanDuel, lol.

DJ Moore ($7,300 DK / $7,600 FD)

Like Adams, DJ Moore has a borderline slate-leading, 30% expected target share in the AETY Model projections. We love picking on this Minnesota secondary on a weekly basis and it’s yet to let us down (outside of Baker Mayfield under-throwing Odell Beckham multiple times when we locked him in a couple weeks ago) as we always want to attack any wideout who sees Bashaud Breeland 40% of the time, or more, in coverage. Robby Anderson is also in a nice spot here but I cannot recommend playing him in cash, whatsoever.

Terry McLaurin ($7,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Get exposure this this Kansas City / Washington game! The AETY Model currently grades Terry McLaurin as the 6th overall value play at the wide receiver position and assuming the non-participant in Friday’s practice was strictly precautionary, it’s wheels up for McLaurin against this sieve of a Kansas City secondary.

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,100 FD)

We discussed the high-total in this matchup in the Ekeler write-up and it has me licking my chops to go back to the well with Keenan Allen in a matchup against Baltimore slot-cornerback, Tavon Young. Young has been brutal in coverage thus far through 2021 and has his toughest matchup to date here against Keenan Allen. It looks like Mike Williams is truly questionable for this matchup and Allen would be a cash game staple for me if he’s ruled out, but having said that, I’m 100% interested in Keenan Allen even if Mike Williams is a go. This matchup is pristine and we’re due for a Keenan Allen breakout game in 2021. In addition, he also grades out as the #1 value at the wide receiver position on the AETY Model (with Mike Williams projected as ACTIVE).

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,550 DK / $5,800 FD)

Simply way too cheap for a clear-cut, WR1 against a Houston Texans pass-defense that grades 30th in DVOA. If you’re not playing Jonathan Taylor, load up Michael Pittman and get exposure to this Colts’ offense who grades 4th on the slate in total offense equity on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, exclusive to Win Daily Sports.

Jakobi Meyers ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

Another nice value would be the Patriots’ wideout, Jakobi Meyers. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of his but the volume in the passing attack is hard to ignore and this matchup against Dallas should bode well for the Patriots in a “catch-up” style gamescript. I prefer Pittman here at this price, but Meyers’ is 100% in play for cash games, but I would only recommend him on DraftKings in a full-point PPR format.

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Mecole Hardman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings with the amount of value that has opened up on this slate via injuries. If you can afford Travis Kelce, you lock him in and expect a massive “get-right” game here against the Washington Football Team and their majority-zone defense.

Mark Andrews ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

What a game for Mark Andrews and the Ravens’ passing attack on Monday Night! Surprise to no one, the recency bias could not be higher for Mark Andrews and for good reason, the DFS sites butchered his price-point. As much as the GPP mentality in me says to fade Andrews here, the Chargers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends. This matchup is sexy and the high total is sexy. I’m fine if you want to eat the chalk here with Andrews in both cash games and GPP builds.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000 DK / $5,000 FD)

Like the Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs bleed production to opposing tight ends (27th in TE pass defense DVOA). As much as I hate “punt” tight-ends (also pat on my back for the Dan Arnold call last week, hehe), this is an excellent spot for Seals-Jones in a projected shootout against the Chiefs. Seals-Jones may not get a ton of volume, but he tied for first in red-zone targets in Week 5 and should offer plenty of red-zone upside as they go back and forth with Kansas City’s offense all Sunday long.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

Stix Picks: Week 5 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 5 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

– Giants / Cowboys
– Titans / Jaguars
– 49ers / Cardinals
– Packers / Bengals

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD)

I was a bit surprised when the AETY Model spit out the Titans/Jaguars game as one of it’s favorites in terms of “stack-ability” but when you look at the metrics, this game should offer little-to-none on the defensive side of things… leading to a lot of potential for points. The Titans’ defense grades 25th in pass-defense DVOA while Jacksonville is dead last (32nd). Despite Tennessee struggling to stop the run, and Jacksonville really toning down their fast-paced offense last week against Cincinnati, the AETY Model projects Lawrence for over 35 pass attempts. At these price-tags, I’m going to take a shot on a 2% owned, Trevor Lawrence in what should be one of the sneakier (but ugly) shootouts on the slate.

You want to have some salary relief? Stack up Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and run it back with Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.

Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD)

When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, the Dallas Cowboys grade out as the number one offense overall for Week 5 NFL DFS. In addition, Dak Prescott equates a 3.6x value on this crazy cheap price-tag on DraftKings. He’s going to be popular, but like last week when we were all in on Jalen Hurts, I don’t really see a need to get much different at the Quarterback position while Prescott is at home against the 24th ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. You know who to stack him up with!

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

The Giants’ run defense is arguably as bad (if not worse) than their pass defense and again, I want exposure to this Cowboys offense as they are atop of the Team Totals Tool tab on Win Daily Sports. He’s currently (-150) to score a touchdown and right at 100 all-purpose yards at the Sportsbooks… the knee injury should be nothing to scare you off of Elliott at sub-10% ownership in an excellent matchup with the highest total on the slate.

The Cowboys offense has been incredibly efficient (5th in pass offense DVOA, 1st in run offense DVOA) so I’m not totally against the idea of using Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott together despite the somewhat negative correlation in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Nick Chubb ($6,700 DK / $7,500 FD)

Welcome back to the GPP article, Mr. Nick Chubb! If you’ve noticed a theme, we’re always looking to attack the Chargers’ on the ground as they’re giving up a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers. At 5% ownership, I absolutely love the idea of rolling with Nick Chubb against this Chargers run defense that bleeds points to opposing running backs. His props at the Sportsbooks are right there with Ezekiel Elliott and the matchup is better than Elliott’s… If I trust the AETY Model, I trust Nick Chubb here to blow up the slate at extremely low ownership.

Alexander Mattison ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

If Dalvin Cook is ruled out Sunday morning, Alexander Mattison will be a stone-cold lock in all of my lineups. Simple as that, I don’t care what his ownership turns out to be.

Aaron Jones ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)

As much as I love Davante Adams (likely to be 20% owned in Week 5 NFL DFS) in a bounce back spot against the Bengals’ secondary, the AETY Model has a lot of love for Aaron Jones. If you’ve been with Win Daily for the last couple of years, you know that when the AETY Model says to play Aaron Jones, you play Aaron Jones. Like Chubb, Aaron Jones is likely to come in around 5% in ownership giving us a lot of differentiation in our NFL DFS GPP builds.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)

Another sneaky stack that grades out incredibly well for me this week is Kirk Cousins and his number one wideout, Justin Jefferson. The Detroit Lions secondary is absolutely demolished with injury and grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. Justin Jefferson is one of the elite route runners in the NFL and should have an absolute field day at home in the dome against the Lions. The AETY Model projects Justin Jefferson for right around 90 receiving yards and 7 receptions, grading him as the #2 overall wide receiver on this slate behind Davante Adams.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

No idea what FanDuel was doing here with D-Hop’s pricing, lol. Hopkins is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and I want to get exposure to this division game with a total right around 50 points. D-Hop will see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley in coverage and that is a matchup I’m always interested in attacking.

Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

With no Jaire Alexander, the Packers’ defense is honestly atrocious grading 20th in pass defense DVOA (that was with Alexander healthy) and 27th in run defense DVOA. With Joe Mixon banged up and highly questionable to suit up, look for the Bengals to go back to their Zac Taylor roots in a more up-tempo, no-huddle passing attack. Chase should be price in the low-to-mid $6K range on DraftKings so let’s take advantage of the savings while they’re available.

Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD)

Don’t get me wrong, I love Laviska Shenault again this week (AETY Model’s #1 wide receiver value), but let’s not forget about the slate-breaking upside in Marvin Jones. Jones’ enters this week leading the Jaguars with a 23% target share and a ridiculous 44% red-zone target share. Shenault is an excellent value overall but Marvin Jones is the player on this Jacksonville team that offers NFL DFS GPP winning upside, especially when he’s projected to be 2-5% owned.

AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that we’ll see AJ Brown unowned as he returns to the field in Week 5 as we expected earlier in our research this week, but again, I want exposure to the Titans/Jaguars game and AJ Brown is price at a nice discount on both sites. We know where the production is going to come from on both sides of the football:

– Derrick Henry
– AJ Brown
– Marvin Jones
– Laviska Shenault
– James Robinson

One of the issues I have with other game stacks and what not in DFS is guessing where the production is going to come from. That is a non-issue with this game. You know who the studs are, play them!

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Allen Robinson, Devonta Smith, DJ Moore, Henry Ruggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

*If you can afford Darren Waller, you play him. It looks like the majority of the field is going to go down to punt-priced, chalk. I don’t hate any of the chalk options this week, but the easiest way to differentiate in a positive way, it’s avoiding punt-play chalk tight-ends.

Mike Gesicki ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD)

We all know you cannot run the football against Tampa Bay and the Bucs are a 10-point favorite here giving the Dolphins the pass-happy gamescript as they play catch-up from the get-go. The Bucs grade 25th in DVOA against the tight-end and also give up a significant amount of fantasy points to slot receivers. Mike Gesicki happens to play both of those positions.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Another solid output for our Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games (if you made the late pivot to Herbert over Fields as discussed on the livestream). The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Derrick Henry (45%), David Montgomery (40%), Cooper Kupp (30%), Amari Cooper (30%), Nick Westbrook (15%), Will Dissly (15%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD)

Hurts is an easy plug and play cash game (and GPP) quarterback for me on this Week 4 slate. This game against Kansas City has a 55-point total and will offer DFS players plenty of back-and-forth action. The Chiefs come into this matchup carrying the nut-worst 32nd defensive DVOA grade and that will bode well for a dual-threat signal-caller in Jalen Hurts (who has a 3.4x AETY Model value grade). I’m starting my cash game build with Jalen Hurts, simple as that.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,800 DK / $10,200 FD) & Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)

We don’t need to discuss the two, top-dog running backs this week in great detail. Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are OUT for the Titans leaving Derrick Henry as the only reliable skill-position player for Tennessee. The dude has a 25-carry player prop, lol. He’s pricey as hell on FanDuel and you can tell yourself the Jets’ will line up with eight in the box and say “anyone but Henry can beat us”, but he’s still capable of breaking the slate at any moment.

On FanDuel, I’m likely to fade him and just roll with Kamara who’s also in an excellent spot (and at home) as a 7-point favorite against the Giants who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. You’re going to want one of these guys in your cash game lineup.

David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD)

On DraftKings, I’m eating the Montgomery chalk in my cash game (and likely GPP) builds and calling it a day. The Bears’ offense was atrocious last week, that is no secret, but the play calling duties will revert back to Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor (who Montgomery excelled with at the end of 2020). On FanDuel, I’d likely pivot up to Nick Chubb or down to Ezekiel Elliott.

Trey Sermon ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

*Absolute cash game lock if Elijah Mitchell is out for this game. Please check back on Sunday for updates, but Mitchell was in a non-contact jersey at Friday’s practice and is doubtful to play. With a key focus on Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara, we need the savings Sermon offers, especially in a matchup at home against Seattle who’s giving up over 150 rushing yards per game.

UPDATE: Mitchell is out, Sermon is a go.

Honorable Mention: Zack Moss (love on FanDuel, still solid on DK), Mike Davis, Chubba Hubbard

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD)

I’m sorry, but Cooper Kupp does not belong in the same price bracket as Davante Adams. Kupp is on absolute fire and I do not blame you whatsoever if you choose Kupp over Adams, but I’m going Adams here all day. The AETY Model projects Adams (with no MVS, he’s out with injury) for over 100 receiving yards and 8.5 receptions… That is the highest pre-match output for a wide receiver in the AETY Model’s 2021 season history.

Again, Cooper Kupp is 100% in play and he will be popular, but if the pricing is this close, I’m on Adams against a Steelers’ secondary that is getting torched but opposing #1 wide receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Way too cheap for a talented (and finally healthy), Odell Beckham Jr. going up against the AETY Model’s favorite matchup, Bashaud Breeland. Now that Beckham got a full game under his belt and still no Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham should be in a spot for a 25-28% target share. In this matchup, that will easily get Beckham to 2.5x value for our NFL DFS Cash Game builds.

Calvin Ridley ($7,000 DK / $7,200 FD)

Incredibly affordable on FanDuel, Calvin Ridley in the dome against a Washington secondary that bleeds fantasy points to opposing wide receiver one(s). Ridley is coming off of an 11-target game and projects to own another 30% target share this week while teammate Russell Gage is out with injury. I like this game as a potential sneaky shoot-out and hopefully a breakout game with Calvin Ridley and rookie, Kyle Pitts.

On the other side, Terry McLaurin ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD) is a helluva option for your cash game lineup as he’s owned a 32% target share while Heinicke is under-center and Atlanta’s secondary is arguably worse than Washington’s.

Value Wide Receivers

Corey Davis ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)
Robert Woods ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
Tim Patrick ($4,900 DK / $6,100 FD)
Jaylen Waddle ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Nick Westbrook, Amari Cooper

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD)

Much more affordable on FanDuel, but if you can afford Travis Kelce, you play him! The Eagles’ cover-two against Kelce should lead to a field-day for a position that most people punt-and-pray. Starting your cash build with Kelce is the most +EV move in cash games.

Will Dissly ($2,600 DK / $4,400 FD)

If I’m not going to Kelce (I probably will), I’m simply punting all the way down to Will Dissly while Gerald Everett is on the COVID-19 injury reserve. It’s gross, but you’ll like the way your build looks around him. Please, just don’t play another punt player with Dissly.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Logan Thomas, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram

Defense / Special Teams

New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
New York Jets

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 3 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
– Chargers / Chiefs
– Seahawks / Vikings
– Bucs / Rams
– Falcons / Giants
– Colts / Titans

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

Well, well, well… Wilson is becoming a staple in this article and I’m here for it. Wilson AGAIN grades out as a top-two QB in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray (who is on another planet right now). As you saw last week and the week before that, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Honestly, this may be the best matchup for Wilson and company against a banged-up, Vikings’ defense that just gave up 400 passing yards to Kyler Murray. Enjoy the fireworks for the third week in a row.

Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Much more affordable on FanDuel, but Mahomes falling under 12% in ownership should be crime. This game against a sub-par Chargers’ secondary (without Chris Harris) currently has a total of 55 points… that bodes well for fantasy points on both sides of this game. We don’t need to write more about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. You NEED exposure to this game and you know who to pair him with.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

Welcome back to the passing attack, Mr. Austin Ekeler. It was a strange Week 1 outing for Ekeler who was nursing a hamstring injury coming into the season, but we saw things go back to normal for a Joe Lombardi offense, as Ekeler saw nine targets in the passing attack in Week 2. Yes, he only had nine carries, but we don’t tout Ekeler for his rushing abilities, those are just icing on the cake.

This game is going to be a shoot-out and the Chargers will heavily rely on Ekeler as they likely play catchup from the get-go. He will be able to provide plenty of rushing/receiving upside this week against the Chiefs’ 32nd rank run defense (in terms of DVOA) who will also be without Frank Clark this week.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

With or without Carson Wentz, I absolutely love this matchup against the Titans for a “get-right” spot for Jonathan Taylor. The combination of Frank Reich’s inside and outside running zone schemes should provide plenty of breakaway alleys for Jonathan Taylor against an undisciplined defensive line in Tennessee (that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA). He’s going to be sub-5% owned on DraftKings and offers a nice run-back to all of my AJ Brown and Julio Jones shares.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

In my opinion, Metcalf is way too cheap on both sites, but dear lord is he a freesquare on FanDuel. I know, you’ve seen Metcalf in all of the GPP articles here thus far in 2021 and he’s let us down for the most part… but he’s going to blow up soon and this is a prime spot against an aging Patrick Peterson and one of the worst corners in the NFL, Bashaud Breeland. The Seahawks have yet to scheme a deep ball for DK Metcalf (Lockett currently has ~100 more air yards logged) and with the speed/size differential (and the dome), look for Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron to change that.

Tyler Lockett is also in another smash spot. All in all, we want some Seahawks shares yet again in Week 3.

Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

Please see the Cash Game Checkdown for my Week 3 love affair with Justin Jefferson. Love me a “mini-stack” of Metcalf and Jefferson for the afternoon hammer.

Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)

Yes, Cooper Kupp killed me last week and yes, he’s likely to be 25% owned again in Week 3. I’m 100% okay if you want to go back to the well on Cooper Kupp, but Robert Woods is significantly cheaper with very similar player props. When in doubt, trust Vegas.

I’m taking the savings here and likely will be incredibly overweight on Robert Woods this week, as he too will have his fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage against a banged-up Tampa secondary.

AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Another criminally-low priced number one wide receiver… We’ve been picking on Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore, and the rest of this Colts’ secondary early on this year and I’ll be doing so again in Week 3. AJ Brown is primed up for a massive game sooner than later and I think we finally see him top 50 receiving yards in 2021 matchup (the AETY Model projects for over 80).

Brown currently sits 9th in the NFL in air yards with absolutely nothing to show for it. I’m not a huge air yards guy, but sometimes you just need to trust the data. Seattle made it a priority to hit AJ Brown with a purpose last week and it looked like he was a bit scared to run his normal crossing routes against that bruising, yet beatable secondary. The Colts will not punish him like Seattle did and this will be a breakout game for Mr. Brown.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Mecole Harman

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Absolute smash play for me on DraftKings at sub $5K. How did his price go down? The Giants secondary is rough outside of James Bradberry and he will have his hands full with Calvin Ridley. With Russell Gage OUT, Pitts’ expected target share takes a big jump upwards against a Giants’ defense that runs a lot of man-coverage. You simply cannot cover Kyle Pitts 1-on-1.

This is the breakout game for Kyle Pitts and I want you all to have some exposure to him in your NFL DFS GPP builds. He’s a perfect run-back with a chalky Saquon Barkley.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, Jack Doyle, Jared Cook, Logan Thomas

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 2 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and I absolutely loved to see Win Daily start off with a NFL DFS GPP bang! Thank you to all of the folks who ate the Marquez Callaway and Elijah Moore chalk, we at Win Daily thank you!

For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Russell Wilson ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD)

Well, I’m going right back to the well in Week 2 with this newly designed Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. Wilson grades out as the second overall point scorer in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray. As you saw last week, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Last week’s matchup was significantly tougher on paper and slower in expected pace and Russ still cooked.

This week, it’s the absolute nut matchup against a Titans’ secondary that grades out 30th in AETY’s passing defense… Yikes! In addition, the total in this game currently sits at 55 points (sheesh!). Let’s go right back to a sub-10% owned Russell Wilson in NFL DFS GPP builds and pair him up with DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett. Enjoy the show.

Ryan Tannehill ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD)

As much as I love Russell Wilson, I equally love Ryan Tannehill this week with his projected ownership of two percent! Two percent? Again, the total in this game is at 55 points, the number two expected pace, and little to no defense whatsoever. Tannehill has the best receiving core he’s ever had and also adds a lot of sneaky value with his legs (especially in the red-zone). If you don’t love your build due to the $1,200 increase in salary (on DK) with Russell Wilson, Tannehill has the skill set and matchup to meet/exceed Russell’s expected fantasy output.

All in all, I want, no I need, exposure to this Titans/Seahawks afternoon battle.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

Exposure to the Titans/Seahawks game. This Seattle run defense is rather solid on paper but just gave up a significant chunk of total yardage to the Colts’ pair of running backs. Sure, a lot of that was done through the air, but again, the pace of this game is likely to bode well for fantasy points (not to mention Derrick Henry spent a lot of the off-season working on his pass catching and also saw four targets last week).

Henry is always one play away from breaking the slate and I will be locking him in in NFL DFS GPP lineups at a minimum to get a piece of the Titans’ offense (you can certainly full-on stack this game). On FanDuel, this price-tag is criminal, lock him in!

Miles Sanders ($6,900 DK / $6,300 FD)

Miles Sanders is likely to come into this slate under 5% in total ownership yet again and he’s a featured piece on Stoweby’s Week 2 Low Ownership Plays. I cannot agree with Stoweby more on his evaluation for Miles Sanders this week going up against a 49ers defense that might-as-well be called the walking wounded. Look for Nick Sirianni to run it down San Francisco’s throat with Miles Sanders and also some check-down magic in the flats with Sanders’ increasing expected opportunity share.

Javonte Williams ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD)

The Broncos’ rookie did in fact have more carries than Melvin Gordon in his debut last week against the Giants but all the fantasy thoughts go right to Gordon since he broke off the long touchdown run. No lies, Gordon looked incredibly sharp and youthful on that carry (topping 21MPH with his legs), but this is still a damn-near 50/50 timeshare.

In no way am I saying Williams is a lock to hit 3x value, but if I follow the AETY Model, the Broncos have the second highest (yes, I know, that’s crazy) Adjusted Expected Team Total on this slate! Due to my plays above and my love for these afternoon game-stacks, I need salary relief and Javonte Williams offers just that (in addition to significant touchdown equity according to the AETY Model).

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

See my Wilson write-up as to why I love Metcalf yet again this week. This secondary is AWFUL and Metcalf simply cannot be covered. We didn’t see a ton of Metcalf last week as Waldron loved moving Lockett around to take advantage of the Colts’ cover-three, but Metcalf still found a way to have a solid game. He’s going to go off a bunch this year and it starts this week.

Like Derrick Henry, his pricing on FanDuel is criminally low.

AJ Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD)

Game-stack the key stakeholders in this Titans/Seahawks matchup. Tre Flowers is bad and he’s going to look worse on Sunday having to stand in front of AJ Brown for most of this shootout.

Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

Simply way too cheap on DraftKings for a player with an AETY-Model-backed 30% expected target share. Using Mixon on one side and Allen Robinson on the other is a great way to get a little different on a slate with such condensed chalk in that Cowboys/Chargers game.

DeVonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) / Robert Woods ($5,700 DK ONLY) / Ja’Marr Chase ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)

When we’re paying up so much for these core-stacks and exposure to guys like Derrick Henry, DK Metcalf, etc., we’re going to need some mid-tier value. These three guys are the only AETY Model wide receivers priced in the $5K range that grade out for greater than 2.7x value. I personally love them all again this week (especially Robert Woods while everyone flocks to Cooper Kupp who had a big week due to a broken play by a broken Bears’ defense).

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Marquez Callaway

Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Trying something new this week for you all as this slate is built different for my expected path to success. Again, we need salary relief and we want exposure to these games with extremely high totals (unless you’re on FanDuel, the pricing this week is ridiculously easy to build around). Here are some guys that mainly fit that narrative and offer a lot of salary relief…

– Terrace Marshall ($3,300 DK ONLY)
– Jalen Guyton ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
– Cedrick Wilson ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD)
– Josh Reynolds ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) *extremely large field GPP only*
– AJ Green ($3,700 DK / $5,300 FD)

Tight Ends

George Kittle ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

On a slate without Travis Kelce, how the hell is George Kittle projected for 5-8% in ownership? This is the easiest pivot in any lineup to get different and get different in a strong way. While everyone flocks to Jared Cook and Noah Fant (those guys are fine too, just find a way to get different in those builds), George Kittle is the forgotten son who will break this slate open early in those first batch of games.

Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)

Another easy pivot to a guy that burned everyone last week. This is the matchup Pitts will see 10-targets in as the Falcons are chasing their tail all day long in Tampa as they’re a 13-point underdog in a game with a 51-point total. I absolutely love getting a lot of exposure to Kyle Pitts this week in NFL DFS GPP (and cash) lineups.

Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, Dalton Schultz

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back NFL! Helluva, Week `1 effort across the board and loved to see all of the Win Daily Members’ screenshots of both NFL DFS GPP hits and cash games! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Justin Herbert (likely 30%), Najee Harris (30%), Chris Carson (25%), Ezekiel Elliott (20%), Keenan Allen (40%), Cooper Kupp (20%), CeeDee Lamb (20%), Noah Fant (20%)… I’m likely fine with all of the above besides Cooper Kupp.
PEOPLE WILL BE LOADING UP ON DAL/LAC exposure. DO NOT FADE THIS GAME, but you do not need to full on stack it in cash.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Kyler Murray is likely to be a staple in this article on a weekly basis. The QB1 from Week 1 is back in another matchup he should be able to exploit with both his legs and arms. Minnesota’s secondary (outside of Patrick Peterson who played decently in Cincinnati) is still trash and ranks in the bottom ten in pass defense DVOA.

Murray is yet again the top-rated quarterback according to the AETY Model and if you can afford him, you should feel good about him anchoring your cash game lineup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD)

Mr. Chalk of Week 2 and AETY Model approved as the #3 overall projected point-scorer from the Quarterback position and also the #3 overall quarterback value. It’s very likely over 50% of the DraftKings field selects Herbert as their cash game quarterback and probably 20-30% on FanDuel will do the same.

With DeMarcus Lawrence recently put on the IR, the Cowboys are going to have a very difficult time establishing a pass rush leaving Herbert and a loaded core of pass-catchers to torch this Cowboys’ secondary who gave up nearly 400-yards to Tom Brady a week ago. I’m likely to eat the chalk here and enjoy the show with a tight-spread and a 55-point total.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD)

In terms of “top-tier” running backs, it’s hard to not love Alvin Kamara as your feature back in NFL DFS Cash Games this week… especially on FanDuel at that price-tag. The AETY Model absolutely loves Kamara’s expected usage this week grading him with an expected 80% total opportunity share (passing target share and rushing opportunity share). That is second to just Christian McCaffrey (who obviously is always in-play for cash games).

The Panthers’ run-defense looked incredibly stout last week using their “big-nickel” package often with three safeties on the field to stop the run, but that was against the New York Jets. I don’t expect a ceiling game from Kamara here, but the usage alone makes him a sexy cash game play.

Chris Carson ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)

I absolutely loved what I saw from this new Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. I had mentioned Russell Wilson in every single article I wrote last week expecting a blow-up game with the Waldron system and he did not disappoint. Sure, the pace of that game was lower than expected but this Seahawks’ offense was the definition of efficient (ranking 9th in rushing DVOA and 5th in passing).

As much as I love the Cowboys/Chargers matchup, we need to get some exposure to this Seattle game with a current total sitting at 54 points. Carson is the most affordable piece of real-estate in that game and also has zero competition behind him now that Rashaad Penny is set to miss multiple weeks with injury.

Najee Harris ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Ultimate freesquare on FanDuel with that price-tag and likely a field-favorite on DraftKings as well. If there’s any chalk running back I’m afraid to roster in cash this week, it’s Najee Harris. The expected usage rate is incredibly high (right behind Kamara), but this run-blocking scheme from a weak Pittsburgh offensive line leaves much to be desired. That being said, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers in Week 1… that is hard to ignore at an affordable salary for cash game builds.

Joe Mixon ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

The Bears defense is brutal and Joe Mixon is another Kamara-Harris type in terms of rarely going to leave the field. My main focus for my cash game running backs is overall touches and Mixon is a guy that will finish top-5 likely every week in running back touches (he had 33 of them last week). I expect little-to-no defense on both sides of this game and that should bode well for Joe Mixon against a borderline practice squad caliber defense Chicago is rolling out.

Damien Harris ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)

What a showing for Damien Harris in his season debut as the featured back of the New England Patriots compiling over 115 all-purpose yards. As a six-point favorite in a low-total against a Jets’ defense that surrendered over 4.7 yards per carry to McCaffrey last, I’m fine with taking a little bit of a risk on Harris for the sake of salary relief. He’s got a nice all-purpose yard prop of over 90 yards and is -125 to score a touchdown. When in doubt, I’ll trust Vegas here (and the AETY Model agrees) that Harris finds a way to provide well over 2.5x DraftKings value on this price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Eli Mitchell, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

All hail, Keenan Allen this week against the Dallas Cowboys. We touched on this matchup that is going to provide fantasy fireworks from the second the ball is kicked off and there’s no who provides a higher-floor in that game than Keenan Allen. Fifteen targets is very well a conservative projection for Allen in this game. If you’re not playing Herbert (hell, even if you are), ensure Keenan Allen finds a way to your cash game build as he will likely have Jourdan Lewis in a pretzel all game long.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

Similar to Keenan Allen, everyone in the industry is going to rush to roster CeeDee Lamb due to the savings off of Amari Cooper. Again, you want exposure to both sides of the ball in this game but I do not think this is a home run spot for CeeDee Lamb as he’ll likely see a lot of Chris Harris in coverage (my personal favorite cornerback). Despite the old age, Harris can still ball out.

Having said that, the expected volume for this Dallas passing attack is far to0 great to fear a relatively bad matchup for CeeDee Lamb. As much as it’s a bad matchup for CeeDee, it’s also bad matchup for Chris Harris… CeeDee is an excellent route runner and will win his fair share on Sunday. Chris Harris is out. CeeDee eats!

Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

According to the AETY Model, Allen Robinson is the number one mis-priced (on DraftKings) wide receiver in regards to his overall projection. Allen Robinson currently sits as the #10 overall wide receiver this week but priced as the 17th “best” wide receiver on DraftKings.

I don’t like him as much on FanDuel due to the high PPR floor, but I made a living off of using those pricing discrepancies the AETY Model spits out when projections are completed. Robinson is projected for a 30% target share on a team that should throw the ball close to 40 times. Pair that volume with the trio of below-average cornerbacks he’ll see from Cincinnati, Robinson is as safe as they come this week. Between you and I, Mixon and Robinson is one of my favorite “mini game stacks” on the slate this week.

If you’d rather use Ezekiel Elliott for your Dallas exposure (and not rostering CeeDee because we do not want to full on stack in cash), Allen Robinson is an EXCELLENT cash game pivot and will be a low-owned difference maker in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)

Devonta Smith is a route running extraordinaire and came out with a bang last week in his NFL debut against the Falcons. He is clearly top wideout on this roster and should be priced in the low $6K range on both fantasy outlets. We need the salary relief this week and there’s likely no higher overall value than Devonta Smith against a banged-up 49ers’ secondary who just lost Jason Verrett for the season and currently has Emmanuel Moseley not participating in practice.

All in all, this 49ers’ defense is nothing like it was over the past couple of years and Devonta Smith will have matchups to exploit all game long.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd (DK), Marquez Callaway, AJ Brown, DJ Moore

Tight Ends

*If you can afford Darren Waller or Kittle, you play them in cash. They’re listed as honorable mention due to the lineup build this article likely leaves you with… as you’ll notice, there isn’t a lot of room for Waller/Kittle on that (unless you’re on FanDuel) build but if you can find a way, you play one of them!

Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)

Oh how the mighty in ownership have fallen. Just a week ago this guy was 50% owned in cash games and is now likely to be around the 10% range. I will never understand how people will just bail on someone after one week. Pitts led the Falcons in targets and also was heavily involved in the red zone.

If you’re looking into the real metrics that matter here (and this should surprise no one), Pitts was only used to pass block 5% of the time… that my friends is incredibly valuable for a fantasy tight end. This dude lines up all over the field and his price is still soft enough to where we should all be licking our chops to roster Pitts this week as they’re going to be play catch-up early and often against Tampa Bay who is currently a 13-point favorite, lol.

Pitts is likely to finish this game with 10+ targets and on a slate with no Travis Kelce, I’m locking him in.

Noah Fant ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Just simply way too cheap on DraftKings and close to a playable value (in terms of optimal cash game builds) on FanDuel. With Jerry Juedy out for quite some time, there are a lot of targets to go elsewhere in this offense. I don’t think this will be a massive bump up in Fant’s already strong workload, but any bump up in target share is noteworthy. My only concern here is we will still see a lot of “Albert O” in the red-zone.

Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)

Goedert is clearly the TE1 in Philadelphia and one of their most important skill position players as he logged over 73% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week. The AETY Model loves this spot for Goedert going against a lot of Cover 3 that San Francisco is likely to run. Assuming Jalen Hurts has to take what the defense gives him, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert should

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Jared Cook, Cole Kmet, George Kittle

Defense / Special Teams

Tampa Bay
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)

Don’t care what the ownership here is at all. This is a 14-game slate where a large portion of the field is going to try to reinvent the wheel to find some sneaky quarterback no one is going to play in hopes the contrarian build puts them on top of the leaderboards. Let them donate.

What else do we need to see from Patrick Mahomes? He has the highest upside and the highest floor of anyone on the slate. There are plenty of other plays in this article and on the Win Daily site to help you get different elsewhere. We know Stefanski is going to game-plan to keep Mahomes off the field and use that uber-efficient run offense, but that doesn’t scare me one bit as the Chiefs are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL despite any game-tempo concerns we can hypothesize.

Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

If you’re in discord and an avid Win Daily member, you already are well aware of my love for Russ in 2021 and right off the bat this weekend in Indianapolis. New offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, comes from the Sean McVay tree of up-tempo, no-huddle offense that should amplify all of Russell’s strengths as a signal caller. At 3-5% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings NFL DFS GPP contests, it’s giddy up, Russ!

Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

This is more of a dart-throw based on lack of ownership and immediate leverage off of Dalvin Cook chalk. In 2020, Kirk Cousins absolutely carved up the bottom half of the NFL’s passing defenses (in terms of DVOA), he averaged over 300-yards passing and 2.75 touchdowns, throwing for three scores in all but one matchup.

Yes, the Bengals secondary should be relatively improved from their 2020 unit (27th in pass defense DVOA), but if the red-zone variance goes against Dalvin and towards the Minnesota passing attack, this stack lead by Cousins will be a GPP winner.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

In lineups I’m not prioritizing Patrick Mahomes, I’m going to give a very strong look to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool from Win Daily Sports, it’s no surprise the Chiefs are right there in the top-four for overall touchdown equity.

The Adjusted Expected Team Totals are strictly team totals based off of touchdown equity as opposed to Vegas Team Totals that bake-in special teams.

We briefly touched on red-zone variance when discussing Kirk Cousins, now let’s do the same with the Kansas City Chiefs. This offense is projected to go absolutely nuts (again, to no surprise) yet CEH is projected to be 4-8% in overall ownership. The Chiefs will not give up on this kid after a rough start to his red-zone rushing career as a rookie and I fully expect they use the hell out of him in the short-passing game against these beatable Cleveland linebackers… and to also avoid a nasty pass rush from Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett.

Simply put, I WANT exposure to this Kansas City offense in some form in most (if not all) of my NFL DFS GPP builds this weekend. What better way than to utilize an under-owned three-down running back on a team that’s going to score a lot?

Nick Chubb ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

When building Patrick Mahomes lineups this week, I want to find a way to get a little different when I stack him with BOTH Tyreek and Travis Kelce and I believe the best way to do that is by using a 2-5% owned, Nick Chubb (expensive to do and that’s a contrarian way of going to do it when there’s this much value on the slate).

I don’t need to preach much more about my love for this outside-zone running scheme Stefanski brought over from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree and how Stefanski’s game-plan is likely going to be to give his running backs 40 touches in this matchup. The above alone sets up for an excellent Nick Chubb gamescript as long as they can keep it relatively close early-on.

Outside of Chris Jones, this Kansas City defensive line is horrid (sorry, Frank Clark) and graded 31st in run defense DVOA in 2020. As long as the 90+ degree heat doesn’t get to Chubb (I mean, the dude played college football in the southeast, 90 degrees should feel like a homecoming), Chubb is going to be in a prime spot for 115+ all-purpose yards and significant touchdown equity in one of the most popular game-stacks on this slate (at incredibly low ownership).

Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD)

I am all the way on on Miles Sanders this year, Mainly, for his fourth round ADP, but also from a NFL DFS perspective. I trust Nick Sirianni and the fact he didn’t really keep much competition for carries on the 53-man roster. This game has big time shoot-out ability and the AETY Model grades Miles Sanders 5th in overall running back touchdown equity. This matchup is a significant advantage for the Philly offensive line and if Sanders remains on the field for a majority of third downs, this can be an absolute coming out party for Sanders at 4-8% ownership.

Jonathan Taylor ($8,000 DK / $7,900 FD)

Absolute GPP lock on FanDuel at that price-tag with what should be a healthy offensive line in Indianapolis. With my deep, deep love for Russell Wilson, I need to run it back with an Indianapolis Colt or two.

Why the hell are people not interested in Jonathan Taylor? Despite a tougher matchup against a stout Seattle run-defense, we saw how matchup proof Taylor can be when he’s given the keys to a full workload. At 2-5% ownership for an elite back that will see 20+ touches, I am in.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Damien Harris

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Read the cash game checkdown for more analysis on my love for DK Metcalf. The AETY Model is incredibly high on Metcalf in this matchup and grades him out as the highest receiving touchdown equity outside of Davante Adams. This dude is going to go wild on Sunday and prove he is much more than a “go-route” NFL wide receiver. You just cannot cover this dude!

Adam Thielen ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)

Adam Thielen is an absolute red-zone superstar ranking second overall for all 2020 wide receivers in red-zone target share (just behind Davante Adams). I also love Justin Jefferson in this spot, but the AETY Model projects Thielen for a higher ceiling in NFL DFS GPP builds… and we trust the AETY Model. Again, significant leverage against the Dalvin Cook chalk if one (or likely both) of these Vikings’ wideouts have a field day.

Julio Jones ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD)

How the hell is a HEALTHY Julio Jones going to be 2-5% owned at these price tags in the game with the highest total on the slate? Don’t overthink this, Julio Jones is still one of the best wide receivers in football and Arizona’s secondary is trash.

Robby Anderson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Plain and simple, Brian Tulloch’s theory on revenge narratives. He got me into this industry years ago, so I owe him this one. Darnold and Anderson will connect on a deep ball touchdown against a brutal, young, limited-in-talent Jets’ secondary. It’s “revenge szn” (man, I absolutely hate that term) for Sam Darold and Robby Anderson. There’s a lot more actual route detail I can break down for you here but this is already a long article, just trust me. #Analysis

Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)

I don’t love Marshall and Robby together unless you’re full on stacking Carolina (even then I’d recommend using CMC with one of the receivers), but I cannot ignore the fact that all of the $3K ownership has now shifted to Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore. I’m sorry, but the best play at this price is Terrance Marshall in the slot here for Carolina. He offers the world of salary relief in NFL DFS GPP builds for you to jam in your Dalvin Cooks and McCaffrey’s of the world and is projected for damn-near 4x value via the AETY Model.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Chase Claypool, Jalen Reagor, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell

Tight Ends

Honestly, I just love Travis Kelce and George Kittle too much and the price-tag on Kyle Pitts (despite us actually knowing his role and relatively low Vegas player props…) makes it tough for me to go anywhere else at the tight end position.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Dan Arnold

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

My oh my, football is finally here! It’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Chalk Talk: Marquez Callaway is likely to be 50% owned in cash games (if not more)… I’m OKAY if you want to just take that freesquare, but how the hell is a guy 50% owned just off of a nice training camp, lol.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

A little too expensive on FanDuel with a full slate of games, but it’s hard not to love Kyler Murray in a projected shootout with a total currently sitting at 52.5 points (highest on the slate). Murray gets it done with both his legs and his passing ability (we sure hope this offense improved over the off-season) and has an incredible matchup against a Titans’ defense that ranked third to last in pass defense DVOA.

We do not need to dive into actual metrics and AETY Model analysis to support Kyler Murray being in play.

Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

No lies, Russell Wilson is by far my favorite play on this slate (GPP and Cash). This offense was a massive let down towards the end of last season and the NFL DFS public loves to have a long memory. With the acquisition of linemen, Gabe Jackson, I expect a significant bump up in the overall play in this Seattle offensive line.

The total in this matchup with the Colts against a sub-par secondary that Russ should carve, currently sits at 49 points (opened at 52). The AETY Model absolutely loves Russel in this spot projecting him for 277 passing yards and just about two touchdowns (in addition to some rushing upside). That is plentiful for a cash game lineup.

Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

The AETY Model absolutely loves Jalen Hurts in Atlanta this week (current total of 48.5 points) projecting him for 251 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and just about 40 rushing yards. That added bonus with the legs is exactly what gives Hurts a nod for our cash game lineups. In addition, our boy Stoweby is a defensive scheme genius and is calling for Dean Pees’ new Atlanta defense to bring a lot of defensive-back blitzing to the table this year… Can you say Jalen Hurts naked-bootleg touchdown run?

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

It’s the feature back in one of the best outside-zone run scheme offenses in the NFL who the AETY Model projects to rush for over 110 yards and have 20+ yards receiving… that’s a monster game with or without a touchdown. Cincinnati ‘s run defense was quite suspect last year (21st in run defense DVOA) and likely got worse over the off-season. It’s all systems go if you want to pay up for a stud RB that’s not named Christian McCaffrey.

James Robinson ($6,400 DK / $5,900 FD)

A 3-down back against the nut-worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL. On FanDuel, Robinson should be a stone-cold lock at that price and he’s more than cash viable on DraftKings.

Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

I’m only really interested to play Mixon in cash on DraftKings but he’s certainly in play on FanDuel as well. Mixon may very well lead this slate in touches and that’s hard to ignore at this low DraftKings price-tag for my cash game build.

Antonio Gibson ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings for “Christian McCaffrey Jr.” who’s supposedly going to be the three down back we all saw signs of in 2020. This kid is super-talented and should have a 15+ fantasy-point outing (over 2.5x value) against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and should struggle in all aspects outside of the pass-rush again in 2021.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds (DK Only)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

*All of these superstars at the top of the salary chain are in play and qualify as cash viable (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins)

Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Great price, tough matchup. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best route runner in the NFL in a pass-happy, up-tempo offense and one of the only pass-catchers in the AETY Model database that projects for a 30% target share on a weekly basis. The expected volume outweighs any matchup concerns I’ll have with Stefon Diggs at these price-points.

DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

ALL THE WAY IN on DK Metcalf this week going up against aging Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie. The AETY Model absolutely loves Russell Wilson and this Seattle passing attack, so let’s capitalize on one of the best talents in the NFL with Metcalf. He will score a touchdown or two in this matchup and will certainly be the headline of my GPP article this weekend.

Corey Davis ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD)

With the player pool I’m recommending at the running-back position, it’s going to be tough to play more than one of these top-tier wideouts, so I’m going to buy into the early chemistry between rookie Zach Wilson and his number-one receiver, Corey Davis. Look for this new passing attack to take advantage of rookie, Jaycee Horn and average cover-corner, Donte Jackson.

Jerry Jeudy ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Way too cheap for one of the best young route runners who’s projected to lead his team in targets. I don’t love this Broncos offense, but they will be plenty efficient to put Jeudy in a position to hit over 2.5x value (currently projected for 13.50 DraftKings NFL DFS points).

Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $6,000 FD)

Higgins is likely going to lead this slate in wide receiving ownership outside of Marquez Callaway and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk in a game that is projected to be high in pace with sub-par defensive showings. I don’t love this spot for Higgins as much as the public does (I honestly prefer Tyler Boyd), but at this ownership, Higgins won’t make or break your cash lineup’s ability to find the pay-line.

Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)

Stone-cold lock for me on DraftKings. Sam Darnold has a strong history of abusing slot receivers with targets and the rookie from LSU is likely the best slot receiver Darnold will have in his NFL career. This is an incredible matchup for Marshall and the AETY Model has no doubt that Marshall gets over 2.5x value in his NFL debut.

Honorable Mention: Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman Jr.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Travis Kelce, do we need to say more? I really want to make it a priority to get one share of a Kansas City Chief contributor in my cash build and I can’t think of a safer play for that narrative than Travis Kelce. Don’t get too cute, play him or eat the chalk-value with the player below.

Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

Take the savings on DraftKings if you cannot afford Kelce. I know we’ve never seen him play a full NFL game yet, but like Terrance Marshall, the price is just too good to pass up. With his high projected ownership, we do not need a whole lot from Kyle Pitts.

Defense / Special Teams

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Super Bowl Game Breakdown

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Super Bowl Game Breakdown

It’s the last game of the season and we’ll be doing it Breakdown style, even if we can’t call it Game by Game. We should actually get a pretty good matchup between the Chiefs and the Bucs, with the young GOAT taking on the old GOAT. This game is certainly more than Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady, but we all know that’s the driving force. Let’s get into things and pick out some captain plays for the Super Bowl Game Breakdown to find the green screens!

Chiefs at Buccaneers, O/U of 56 (Chiefs -3)

Chiefs

QB – Provided his offensive line doesn’t fail him, Patrick Mahomes is in a total smash spot. The Buccaneers had their issues against the pass this season, finishing fifth in DVOA against the pass but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They finished 21st in passing yards allowed per game and Mahomes already totally shredded this defense for 462 yards. That was the high watermark on the season and the other aspect favoring Mahomes is the run defense for Tampa.

It is the best in football, and has been for some time. They allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league by almost 10 full yards. Andy Reid and company are going to run just enough to keep Tampa honest, but not much more. Mahomes is going to have ample opportunity to crush this defense yet again.

The question really boils down to if he’s worth a captain pick and I would lean no. If Mahomes is the optimal captain, it likely means one of two things. The first is for him to have multiple rushing scores. That seems unlikely but the other avenue would be spreading the ball around. That doesn’t seem likely either. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce accounting for roughly 60% of the air yards and 50% of the target share, the passing game is too concentrated normally for Mahomes to be optimal. Of course, play him at will but I will likely be underweight at the captain spot.

RB – This spot is fairly ugly in honesty. As of now, we don’t know if the backfield split between Darrell Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues. In the AFC total game, Williams totaled 14 touches to seven for CEH. That’s not something we’d want to get involved in against such a good run defense. The one reason I won’t totally cast them aside is the Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs in football. CEH had an 11.1% share of the targets and if he’s full go, he could be interesting in PPR formats. Still, this spot is mostly a fade for me. Nobody is really that cheap and I’ll have other priorities. If you’re in a 20 max, a couple shares make sense but that’s as far as I would go.

WR – Let’s hit the way back machine and take a look at part of what I wrote for Hill –

Here’s the really exciting part. Hill plays almost 40% of his routes from the slot. That gets him to Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage and this man just got pantsed on Monday night. He’s allowing a 2.40 pPT, 137.1 passer rating and a 13.3 YPR. If you think Andy Reid doesn’t know that, think again.

That was before Reek went Godzilla on the Tampa secondary for a massive 60 DK points. Not much of my outlook has changed in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown, but this is interesting. Kelce is more expensive, so I wonder if Hill is the most popular captain since he’s the cheapest of the big three from the Chiefs and everyone saw what he’s capable of against this secondary. Hill is lethal from the slot, and even though Murphy-Bunting is playing better in the playoffs he’s going to struggle. He allowed a 122.7 passer rating and a 2.10 P/PT on the season over 115 targets. Tampa has to come with a different game plan than last time. Having said that, I still think Hill will be one of the most popular options up top and I’ll have shares myself.

The secondary receiver is up in the air. Sammy Watkins is on track to be active for the first time in the postseason, and we shouldn’t ignore that. He had a 13.9% target share to go with a 14.2% share of the air yards, third-highest on the team. Even though he’s only played in 10 games, he has nine RZ targets which is third on the team as well. Watkins played the slot 34% of the time but would mostly see Jamel Dean who was fifth in YPR allowed at 9.6. The veteran could be a cheaper way to get exposure to the Chiefs passing game and would be my preferred target if he’s active. Watkins would make it tough for Mecole Hardman to get a ton of work, so we’ll update this if we need to.

TE – The elephant in the room is on DK, it’s likely not possible to play Mahomes/Hill/Kelce altogether. The cheapest stack of those three leaves $5,666 per slot after that. That’s if you don’t use any of them at captain. It’s potentially workable but I’m not sure if it’s the best path to take. If you’re making a lineup that has some of the high profile Bucs passing game players, you’re going to have to pick a path here. I ever-so-slightly lean Kelce, since there’s receivers to replace Hill. You can play Mike Evans or Chris Godwin for cheaper and hope that Kelce outscores Hill. Tampa gave up nine touchdowns on the year to tight ends and it’s possible that they get so focused on not letting Reek go nuts, Kelce has a slightly easier path. Even though he is more expensive, Kelce is the Chief I’m least likely to fade.

D/ST – These units should likely not be very popular, but I kind of dig the Chiefs. Tampa turned the ball over plenty last week and Kansas City sports a pressure rate of just about 25%. We all know that pressure is the one aspect that makes Brady a mere mortal. They’ve forced 25 turnovers and actually only allow about 22 points per game. In the first matchup, they forced two picks and had five DK points. That could be enough for the salary.

Buccaneers

QB – I still am not that interested in Tom Brady as captain because he’s honestly hasn’t been playing that well in the postseason. When’s the last time you’ve seen Brady go three straight games with a 55% completion rate and an 8/4 ratio of total touchdowns to turnovers? Maybe the rest week will help him and he certainly has the narrative behind him. You know, it’s not like Brady has lost Super Bowls before or anything. KC finished mid-pack in DVOA against the pass so the matchup isn’t anything crazy bad for Brady. I would tend to think he gets at least 35 attempts, but I honestly don’t totally love the price. I will say I like him better as a captain option than Mahomes. If Brady goes nuts, he’s got a better chance spreading the ball around to multiple touchdown receivers. There’s much more a path to Brady hitting optimal value at captain than Mahomes in my eyes. I’m not going to tell you to not play Brady, but fitting him and Mahomes in will require a punt somewhere along the line.

RB – Speaking of punts, Ronald Jones has entered the chat. All eyes are going to be on Playoff Lenny, a.k.a Leonard Fournette, and with good reason. However, RoJo offers double-digit touches at a rock-bottom price. Folks will be scared off by the 1.6 DK in the NFC title game but he did have 10 carries. That’s in line with the 13 he got in the previous week as well. Since the Chiefs struggled against the run with the 31st ranked DVOA, this is a very solid spot. I don’t love the fact that Jones is not involved in the passing game. Fournette has racked up 17 targets over the postseason run to just one for Jones. Still, the price difference is undeniable. In the first matchup, Jones took 10 touches and turned it into 17.3 DK with over 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Don’t expect that but RoJo stands to be the most attractive punt right now.

Fournette is the “better” choice in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown because if the Bucs have to abandon the run, he’s going to get the passing work. You could take the path of playing Chiefs pass game+Fournette and either Evans or Godwin without Brady. If you threw Jones and Fournette together, you lock up all the backfield touches for the Bucs at under $10,000 and have some wiggle room left to play with. Either way, Jones looks like a key way to mix in a punt with some serious upside in this game.

WR – Mike Evans has been super quiet the past two weeks, but consider who he’s faced. Marshon Lattimore always gives him fits and Jaire Alexander never really left him after a big touchdown grab early in the game. If folks want to overlook Evans, that’s fine by me. Bashaud Breeland has had a very solid season for the Chiefs, allowing just a 1.40 P/PT and a 50.8% completion rate (third-best). He’s also giving about six inches and 35 pounds to Evans, a major physical mismatch. Brady loves him in the RZ and EZ, where he racked up 18 and 14 targets respectively.

Corner L’Jarius Sneed really played well for the Chiefs when he was active since he played just nine games. He’s lined up in the slot and only allowed a 52.3% catch rate and a 1.30 P/PT on the season across 44 targets. They could elect to use Sneed on Chris Godwin or possibly Tyrann Mathieu, who played some slot as well. Either way, the road is a tough on for Godwin. It’s not like Antonio Brown has a cakewalk either. He gets Charvarius Ward for a good chunk of the game. Ward was targeted 67 times and allowed a 1.80 P/PT. While it’s the “easiest” matchup on the board, AB has only been targeted six times total in two playoff games. He’s not even all that cheap at $6,200. I’d rather play one of Evans or Godwin even at the salary.

TE – If you’re playing a tight end, Cameron Brate looks like he’s going to be the safest bet and there is upside here too. Even Dawson Knox of the Bills posted 15+ DK points, and KC struggled against the tight ends all year. They allowed the seventh-most DK points, fifth-most yards, and nine touchdowns. Brate has been the pass catcher in the playoffs with 16 total targets and never scoring below nine DK points. Compare that to Rob Gronkowski who has been targeted seven times and has two games of just one target. If the game goes high-scoring as projected, Brate is a very solid way to get exposure to the Tampa pass game.

D/ST – I was prepared to be willing to play them, but they are more expensive than the Chiefs. Kansas City could have a major weakness with the loss of tackle Eric Fisher. It’s hard to really quantify that because it happened so late in the Buffalo game. One thing the Bucs do extremely well is get pressure at the third-highest rate in football, 27.9%. I have to believe that the Chiefs will have an answer for that and I’m not overly concerned with it. If playing a defense, I’d be much heavier on the Chiefs.

Captain Pool – Kelce, Hill, Fournette, Evans, Godwin, Brate

Thank you for reading Super Bowl Game Breakdown! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks for Divisional Weekend

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed a big first weekend of NFL Playoff DFS and ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Divisional Round slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only 4 games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – No surprise here. This is a must-win game for Kansas City and they’re not going to mess around. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will rely heavily on their passing game to move the football against Cleveland’s 25th ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Mahomes has one of the highest AETY Model projections for a Quarterback all season. He’s easily my top option for cash and GPP builds.
Baker Mayfield – The total in this game is 57 points… the next highest total on the full-weekend slate is five points lower at 52. I want all of the exposure I can to this Chiefs/Browns game and I love what Mayfield opens up from a roster build perspective. Granted, he has nowhere near the upside of a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, but he’s also $2K cheaper than all of them on DraftKings and over $1K cheaper on FanDuel.

I’ll likely only use Baker Mayfield in GPP formats.

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Nick Chubb – Exposure to the Kansas City / Cleveland game is going to be the theme of this article. Stefanski and this league-leading running scheme are going to run Chubb into the ground on Sunday and I’ll want all of the exposure I can afford.

Kansas City ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and again, Cleveland is one of the most efficient running teams in the NFL. Kareem Hunt at a discount is also in a great spot, but I’m all aboard the Chubb train.
Cam Akers – Just like last week, lock in Cam Akers. He’s likely the only running back on this slate that will sniff 22+ touches and he’s priced under $6K on DraftKings and right at $7K on FanDuel. Green Bay’s defense has been quite stingy of late but they can certainly be carved up via the run… especially with a Sean McVay outside-zone.
Devin Singletary – Absolutely gross and makes me want to not play NFL DFS this weekend, but Singletary is simply way too cheap for a starting running back with zero talent behind him on the depth chart pushing for playing time. Singletary is a lock for me in cash games, but I think a GPP fade is warranted.

Having said that, I have no problem if you just take the value with Singletary in every build, just don’t expect a lot. I’d much rather pivot to Hunt in GPP.

Honorable Mention: JK Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill – Tyreek is back and 100% healthy for a matchup against a below average Cleveland secondary. Mahomes and company will scheme Tyreek open and he leads all wide receivers with the shortest odds to score (-200)… and no, I didn’t forget about Davante Adams. Get exposure to Kansas City and Cleveland.
Stefon Diggs – Too much volume on a weekly basis to ignore. With the minimal threat of Buffalo beating Baltimore via the run, I do anticipate Baltimore to bracket Diggs and keep him to an average game at best, he just has too much volume in their offense.
Michael Thomas – His price is criminally low. Load him up as we likely cannot afford Alvin Kamara. Thomas is going to be a priority for me for my Saints’ exposure piece.
Jarvis Landry / Marquise Brown – They’re WR1s priced in the mid-$5K range on DraftKings. Take the layup when offered. I prefer Landry by a nose to game-stack the highest total game on the slate, but not many have the ceiling Hollywood Brown offers.

Value: With Sammy Watkins OUT, Mecole Hardman is my interesting punt play of the weekend. DeMarcus Robinson also in-play, but I prefer Hardman’s route-running, speed, and the cheaper price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews – Excellent matchup against Buffalo who consistently struggle to cover the tight-end, even with Matt Milano back for Buffalo. Hell, Jack Doyle just went nuts on them, lol.
Austin Hooper – Is this a double tight-end week of Kelce/Hooper game-stacks? It very well has my attention at the moment. Hooper is very affordable on both sites and lead the Browns in targets last week in addition to what already was a rising target share over the past month since returning from injury.

Hooper is in an excellent spot against Kansas City in a gamescript where Cleveland will likely be chasing points. I love this Cleveland running game, but also want exposure to their red-zone threats (Hooper and Landry).

Good luck to all this weekend!

4 years ago 0 comments

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