Upset after upset, there were a few games to put in the back of our heads from Week 6. That’s why we need to stick to our 50/50s in order to keep our bankrolls afloat. But Week 6’s curveballs did not stop one of our subscribers from taking down a GPP for $3K... congrats again you know who you are! Josh Allen, Stef Diggs, Kelce, and Andrews all got us there. Stick to Stix’s projection model, it works and answers most of your questions on who to start up until kickoff. So we have another 11-game slate but with some real bangers on bye…Buffalo and Phila, are two of the best rosters for fantasy. The Vikes and Rams are off too, so no Kupp or JJ this week either. But we got this, still plenty of paths to victory this week! Keep in mind I’m always on our Discord chat guys, just tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Now let’s break down this Week 7 slate!
New York at an astounding 5-1 record, has dominated in the clutch with their defense and utilized their most dynamic weapon when the ball is in his hands. Wink Martindale loves to play man-to-man and blitz a ton, we shall see how Lawrence reacts to the pressure. As for Saquon Barkley, he continues to put the G-men on his back from week to week averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. The model is all over QB Daniel Jones in this spot. His price tag has dropped, but the upside is there for potential rushing yards.
Christian Kirk has been quiet in the past few weeks but gets a nice matchup if he can line up on the inside. The veteran and number-one option for Trevor Lawrence could easily outmaneuver Giants’ slot corner Adoree’ Jackson and get his rocks off this weekend.
Green Bay is desperate for a win after losing two straight as heavy favorites. In order to get back in the win column, Rodgers will need to throw it into that gross Commanders’ secondary. Allen Lazard has hooked up with the future Hall of Famer 4 times in the endzone already and may add more touchdowns in D.C. if they can focus on their weakness at secondary (26th in DVOA).
With Carson Wentz out for 4-6 weeks, Taylor Heinicke will be back under center again for Washington. He’s got experience as a starter since 2020 but facing a Packer team hungry for a win could spell trouble for him against a top defense in the league. Head Coach Ron Rivera has made it loud and clear to get rookie Bryan Robinson plenty of touches, and the Packers are a team that is best to run on (Breece Hall last week) who are (21st in DVOA).
Detroit returning from a bye week will hopefully keep the fantasy output consistent in Dallas. Stud receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been practicing after twisting an ankle and looks to be on pace to play Sunday, but running back D’Andre Swift is still a no-show this week. No sweat, Jamaal Williams (16 FPTS./Game) has filled in perfectly and will still be force-fed the rock if Swift can’t suit up. Goff as always will be chasing a lead, but with the pressure from this Dallas front line and the constant blitzing of Micah Parsons, we should stay clear.
Welcome back Dak! Finally, since Week One we may see some more of the offense in Dallas. Backup Cooper Rush did manage his way to a 4-1 record and could’ve been giving Prescott goosebumps about losing his job. He’ll look to solidify himself again on Sunday against the most generous of opponents (30th in DVOA). Of course, Lamb and Zeke are good too this week, slide them right in your lineups.
Atlanta even with its shaky defense still puts up a good fight and has brought most of its games down to the final snap. But when they have the ball, the Falcons revolve around their first-round pick Drake London. Though he’s tapered off a little in receptions, he should see some Eli Apple who has been picked on by plenty of the elite receivers around the league. Mariota has been efficient as of late, rushing for 111 yards in his last two games with a rushing touchdown. If he can keep it up this week he should have a great ROI of 3X.
Burrow and Chase smashed last weekend in their return back home to where they started out in Louisiana combining for a total of 70 FPTS against the Saints. They can have a repeat performance with another nice matchup on paper at home, Atlanta we know has been a stomping ground for quarterbacks and receivers this year. Running back Joe Mixon has also been in the mix of the offense putting up double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis, if the game script stays positive, Mixon will feast.
The GOAT was back in the news this week squashing rumors of him retiring mid-season. The 45-year-old Brady may have to hang up his cleats if he can’t drop the hammer on Carolina, who just dealt their number one offensive threat, Christian McCaffrey, to the Niners. All the key weapons are in play for Tampa against a Panther team clearly headed to the top of the draft order. We all know Brady and what he does best, winning and proving the haters wrong. Expect a big game, in Brady’s 4 career games against Carolina the Bucs have scored 30 plus points.
Only a few days after dealing wide receiver Robbie Anderson, out goes their best player in McCaffrey to San Fransisco for a cluster of draft picks. It’s obvious now there is a huge void in the Panther offense which leaves the last man standing as DJ Moore. I’m only interested in any opposing defenses at this point in the season for Carolina, and this week is the Bucs. But if you’re feeling lucky take a shot on Moore, as the interim Carolina head coach Steve Wilks came out publicly stating that the team will be built around him moving forward.
Cleveland may be behind the eightball here in this division game on the road. Lamar may be letting out some of his frustration on the Browns’ beatable run defense (29th in DVOA). The same can be said of Baltimore’s secondary who has given up one big play to another this year. Donovan Peoples-Jones is the guy to get that deep shot. Kareem Hunt’s pass-catching services could also be needed if the Browns play hurry-up if they do fall behind a wide margin.
After lighting it up to begin the season, Jackson has fallen back down to earth scoring less than 20 FPTS in his last 4 games. Well, the dog pound is in town and Jackson could very possibly get himself out of the dog house of his fantasy managers on Sunday. Cleveland allows almost 28 points per game, and Mark Andrews (34 Receptions on 50 Targets) would benefit across the field from Lamar so long as he can suit up and log a practice before Sunday.
Matt Ryan off a 389-yard/3 TD game gets another crack at duplicating his performance against the Titans who have the second-worst receiver coverage in the league. It’s hard to trust Ryan to replicate that even with the juicy matchup, but his receivers we can. Pittman has been his go-to alpha and rookie Alec Pierce has built chemistry with the veteran racking up double-digit fantasy points for three straight games.
The Titans continue to ride the Derrick Henry train on offense, lately having plenty of success. So long as the game is within reach, Henry will keep getting fed the ball and is really the only reliable fantasy asset in Tennessee.
The other over-achieving New York team is at Mile High on Sunday Afternoon. Instead of winning without receivers like the Giants, they win without a quarterback (Zach Wilson). Head Coach Robert Saleh has the Jets literally running on all cylinders behind Breece Hall and Michael Carter. They could very well do some damage in Denver, but not as much as Russell Wilson thus far. New York’s defense has been the highest scoring for fantasy over the past 3 weeks, and to get a crack at one of the most overrated quarterbacks would be a dream come true on Sunday.
Coach Lovey Smith will continue to ride the hot hand with rookie running back Dameon Pierce. Rushing a solid 5.7 yards per carry, Pierce plows through defensive lines and keeps the pressure off quarterback Davis Mills. The Texan running game has opened doors for its young receivers, like Nico Collins. A mear ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) could get you double-digit fantasy points which he’s had for his last two starts.
Tight end Darren Waller will sit out coming off a bye week, and Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins are questionable going into the weekend. This news just gets us even more excited for the amount of volume for Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, who will be a knockout one-two punch to the exploitable Houston defense (32nd in DVOA in rushing) (Adams gets coverage from rookie Derrick Stingley Jr.).
Don’t let that little red OPR Rank number scare you away from drafting any Chiefs this Sunday. San Fran is still burdened by injuries to their defensive starters. Even if they were all 100 percent, who cares it’s Kansas City, and Mahomes will throw it 50 times if he has to. The Niners are in fact tough on opposing running backs, so beware of CEH. Kelce needs no explanation, he’s a lock. It’s finding which Chief receiver will go off each week. The Model is loving some MVS…when in doubt check the analytics.
San Fransisco pushed their chips all in this week trading for Christian McCaffrey on Thursday. This move puts them in conversations for the Super Bowl by acquiring the caliber of player in McCaffrey. He will suit up Sunday against the Chiefs as of now, but we may not want to buy in too soon at his current price tag unknowingly his role yet. Jimmy G and Deebo I would bet are the safest pieces here, maybe Kittle too (if the Chiefs line up in a lot of Cover 4, that would open up the middle of the field).
Geno and the crew are perceived to be in another shoot-out with a high-point total and a 6-point dog. He unexpectedly stunk it up on us last week with a 14-point downer, but in another negative game script, he will have to keep up the pace, peppering his favorite receiver DK Metcalf (50 targets, leads the team). Kenneth Walker was excellent against Arizona (110 total yards/1 TD) and will continue to get better, LA is a disgusting third worst defending the run.
Gunslinger quarterback Justin Herbert may get his main man Keenan Allen back and boy did he miss him. Herbert has not hit the 20 fantasy point mark since Week 4 and was held to no touchdown passes last week. Allen is a true game-time decision but is “hoping” to play. Kennan in the rotation spreads out the middle of the field opposite Mike Williams and creates havoc for opposing defenses across the middle. Thankfully Austin Ekeler has been on fire and picking up the slack and keeping the Chargers’ head above water. He also will draw the 26th-ranked fantasy run defense, so get him in if you can, especially if Allen can’t play.
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. I can’t believe we are already in Week 7, let’s stay focused and keep getting richer!
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