We’ve only got 10 games on this main slate in Week 9 which will cut deep into the player pool this week. Losing 6 teams to the byes is tough but we will manage, bringing you the best paths to cashing in your DFS lineups. Keep it simple, don’t get too fancy, and use the AETY projection model to your advantage. Tag me @jdicarlo78 and hop on our Discord to stay up to speed and who to get in your lineups up until lock, time to break it down…Let’s do this!
A walk in the park for Buffalo at the Meadowlands this weekend, start your Bills in cash games. Josh Allen and the Bills’ receiving core really need no explanation, with Diggs already grabbing 55 receptions and 7 touchdowns through 7 games. Another strong play would be the Bills’ DST, who have shut down the best of offenses (held Kansas City to 20 points) and should be able to contain Zach Wilson and the Jets with their eyes closed.
Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson will have a short leash at home facing the number one defense of the AFC. He’ll need to stick to the short-yardage passing game for this one to have a chance to move the ball and avoid the interceptions. Check downs to running backs Michael Carter and James Robinson could be on the menu.
Kirk Cousins is back in town after Washington released him in 2018, which may still sting a little from 4 years ago. It will be bittersweet for him to pick apart the Commanders’ secondary on Sunday, mainly looking to Kendall Fuller’s assignment of Justin Jefferson, which will be a giant mismatch. You can bet your bottom dollar Kirk will look to pad his numbers up in this game against his former team who refused to pay up.
Backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke is not only 2-0 since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz, but has brought Terry McLaurin back to WR1 status. They’ve combined for 11 receptions for 186 yards and 1 touchdown in their two games. McLaurin is still underpriced ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,200 Fanduel) facing the 26th DVOA against receivers
Chicago unloaded their two best players on defense before the trade deadline of Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn this week, hello Miami! We are all in again on Dolphins this week, Tua will be in the driver’s seat in this high-octane offense featuring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The trio scored a total of 100 DK points last week in Detroit.
The Bears may have finally begun to reap the rewards of drafting Justin Fields in 2021, averaging 25 fantasy points in his last two games. Using his canon of an arm (330 yards and 3 touchdowns)and being swift with his legs (148 yards/2 TDs), he’s a steal at his pricetag ($5,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) and a nice flyer for a GPP.
Chuba Hubbard still can’t shake that bum ankle, which means it’s D’Onta Foreman time again. The Bengals have given up over 130 yards rushing over the past four games putting Foreman in another smash position. Both receivers (DJ Moore/Terrace Marshall) are way too cheap on DraftKings and are very viable in the reinvigorated passing offense.
**Punt play: The Carolina defense ($2,300 on DraftKings) may pile up sacks against an erratic Cincinnati O-line.
Tight end Kyle Pitts was brought back from the dead thanks to Carolina’s defense, so will Hayden Hurst be in line for the same scenario? Ja’Marr Chase‘s vacated targets will need to be funneled elsewhere… A discounted Hurst at tight end and the interim Bengals WR 1 Tee Higgins would be legit. The Bengals are in a smash spot to bounce back after taking a huge beating by Cleveland in Week 8.
LA’s offense has been decimated by injuries, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out again, leaving Herbert limited in passing options in Atlanta. The Bolts will be left with Josh Palmer and tight end Gerald Everett as primary targets in the best possible matchup this year…that atrocious Falcons’ secondary. In reality, it’s Austin Ekeler that is the heart of the Chargers’ offense, getting in all the work in the running (5 rushing TDs) and passing game (22 REC/1 TD in his last 2 games)
Atlanta loves to run the ball in the trenches, and LA loves to accommodate opposing running backs, who are 31st in DVOA. Keep an eye on Cordarrelle Patterson’s injury status and workload. If he plays and gets eased in, Atlanta may become a platoon at running back with Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. Too risky to choose, would be nice for the Milli-Maker though. Drake London has been the only consistent piece in this offense, keep it simple if you like any Falcons this weekend.
Green Bay will try to get back to .500 against a Lions team that’s allowed the most yards and points so far this season. Rodgers may as well just feed running back Aaron Jones all-day long against Detroit’s dumpster-fire run defense. Let’s also wait and see if Allen Lazard can make it onto the field too, with 4 touchdowns in 6 games, Lazard has been the only receiver in this offense that has taken a liking by Rodgers.
Even more targets are headed toward Amon-Ra St. Brown this Sunday with the departure of tight end TJ Hockenson. I can’t wait to see the volume this weekend, if you thought Jared Goff peppered St. Brown before, wait until this Sunday. The Lions are only 4-point underdogs here in this game, and may actually have a shot at beating the underwhelming Packers. The road to their second win of the year is through St. Brown.
Well looks like they’re starting to tank. Jonathon Taylor has already been ruled out and quarterback Sam Ehlinger from what we saw last week is just not ready for the big show. But we sure will take the free-99 at running back with Deon Jackson, whose last start produced close to 30 fantasy points in Taylor’s absence. Be aware also of the struggle on the opposite sideline of New England as they’ve been unable to decide on who to start at quarterback all season. The Colts DST is in play guys and gals.
Coach Belichick loves to pick on rookies, especially opposing quarterbacks. Sam Ehlinger will be a deer in headlights on Sunday when the Patriot defense goes full-on blitz at the inexperienced signal caller. That’s just the appetizer though, the main course in New England has been running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who has put up over 20 fantasy points in his last 4 games. With Damien Harris continuing to carry a questionable tag, Stevenson will still command this backfield.
Expect Vegas to start out with a ton of emotion after getting shut out in New Orleans in Week 8. Davante Adams was under the weather up until game time last week, which may have lingered on the field. Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs also looked out of sorts, we can chalk this up as just an oops. The Raiders will go back to the basics and pound the pigskin with Jacobs on a softer Jaguars front line who now rank 25th in DVOA and work Adams back up to his normal reception volume. Consider taking a flyer on receiver Mack Hollins too, who seems to have won Carr’s trust and put up double-digit fantasy points in his last two games.
Jacksonville and coach Doug Pederson have fully unlocked running back Travis Etienne, the dude just always gets the ball and gets the job done fantasy-wise. The second-year stud out of Clemson has rushed for 270 yards in his last two games. He will face a Vegas defense that was gashed a week ago by Alvin Kamara’s 150 total yards, 3 touchdown game. Tight end Evan Engram is grossly cheap (DraftKings $3,300) for a guy seeing 6 plus targets per game. Lawrence and Kirk have become very affordable as well, so If you’re in the mood to stack for a GPP this weekend, your build may be right here!
It’s time for our weekly dose of Marco Wilson, and Seattle is on deck for Sunday afternoon. Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are in the mix here, pick ya poison. The Cards will also let you run on them too, who have allowed over 130 yards in 2 of 4 previous games, 173 yards alone last week to the Vikings. Kenneth Walker is still way too cheap on DraftKings ($6,200) for Vegas’ highest-scoring game on the slate.
“Reunited and it feels so good”…is the song playing in the locker room for DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray these days. The duo from the desert have hooked up on 22 grabs for 262 yards and a touchdown in Hopkins‘ return from a suspension in week 7…Marquis who? The AETY Model for some odd reason is also feeling like some Rondale Moore this weekend, perhaps if he lines up across from the Seahawks’ Coby Bryant? Yup, get him in on a dart throw.
It’s so hard to believe that the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs from the way they’ve played this season. “F@$k them picks” is beginning to show its true colors, the price to pay for selling them off for a championship for a cottage cheese 2022 offensive line. The run game has been obliterated in LA, and Matt Stafford can tell you how many light bulbs are out at SoFi Stadium from the amount of time laying on his back. It’s Kupp only for us here, as usual.
Can Brady and the Bucs finally bounce back this week and get back control of the NFC South? His main weapons are at full strength with Evans and Godwin, and as far as we know 100 percent healthy. Now that the Goat’s divorce is finally behind him, he may focus more on football now. Godwin has a sweet matchup on that cushy Rams’ interior pass defense, and Evans can do what he does best and get in the endzone. Tampa’s recent bad play as of late has put them in the fantasy doghouse, projecting super-low ownership across the board. Get your Bucs in for a tournament or two. Cash Is king although, and that Bucs’ DST will turn that frown upside down when it’s knocking Stafford around like a pinball on Sunday.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and me talking plays across every sport.
Last week saw even more injuries to the TE position again. Irv Smith Jr is now on the IR, Mike Gesicki found the end zone. George Kittle did what he does, and we are ready to move on to Week 9! We are officially at the midway point of the season (half way through the games at least).
Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 8 on FanDuel and DraftKings! It would be the midway point of the season in a normal 16-game season already! Let’s find ourselves a few edges as we climb the leaderboards once again!
After a short hiatus, we welcome Mr. Ertz back to the Tight End article. He draws the best matchup on the board against Seattle once again. Coincidentally, Arizona is now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing TE, but that matters little here. Seattle is still serving up 20+ fantasy points per game to TE, and Ertz was pretty much the only Cardinal who showed up in the first meeting (7-70).
DeAndre Hopkins is back, but Marquise Brown is on the shelf for the foreseeable future, so Ertz is still one of the top options in this offense. I’d be willing to wager we see more than 28 total points in the rematch here. Ertz is the most expensive option on both sites with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce both on showdown slates. That doesn’t shy me away from him at all. I expect some fireworks here, and Ertz has a solid floor in this one.
Everett has seen 16 targets over his last two contests, and has built a solid rapport with Justin Herbert. Even better? Mike Williams has already been ruled OUT for this one. Keenan Allen seems to be behind schedule in his recovery from a hamstring injury. Behind Austin Ekeler, Everett may be the most reliable member of the Chargers offense on Sunday.
Only the aforementioned Seahawks and Cardinals have allowed more yardage to TE than the Falcons’ 552 this season. Increased looks are coming his way. He is averaging eight targets a game over the last two…this is a perfect storm for Everett. I will likely have Everett in a LOT of my lineups in Week 9.
We all saw the disaster that was the Bengals’ offense on Monday Night Football. I’m far from a Zac Taylor apologist. When this offense has missed EITHER JaMarr Chase or Tee Higgins, Taylor has completely lost it. Enough about Zac. Hurst has been clear about how happy he is to be in Cincinnati and be part of something special. The Bengals have no choice but to win as much as possible the rest of the season.
Over his last five games, Hurst has posted 11.7, 17.3, 5.1, 10.8, and 8.2 DraftKings points. The Panthers have been middle of the pack against TE in 2022. Volume is king here once again, and I’d be stunned to see Hurst with less than 6 targets as a floor. Burrow will be looking his way early and often. With the way the Bengals defense is depleted right now, Carolina will likely make this one close. Hurst has a big ceiling here in my book.
I don’t know how you feel about the term “smash spot”, but regardless of your take, Engram is definitely in one this weekend. The Raiders have quietly been dominated by TE this season, allowing the 2nd-most TD (6), 2nd-most Red Zone targets (15), and the MOST goal-to-go targets (10).
Engram has flown under the radar big time this season, posting DraftKings totals of 12.9, 9, 10.7, and 15.5 over his last four games. After the hot start by Christian Kirk this season, the Jaguars WR have largely been a disappointment. They continue to lose games, which leads them into more obvious passing situations. Nobody has an idea what is going on with the Raiders, but they certainly aren’t mailing it in for the season yet. This one has sneaky shootout potential, and Engram is crazy cheap for his potential value.
I have found the ultimate punt play. With TJ Hockenson shipped out of town to division rival Minnesota, there are plenty of opportunities to be had in this Lions offense. Brock Wright is technically listed as the next man up here, but is dealing with a concussion.
Mitchell was a dual-threat in college at Virginia Tech, with five rushing and six receiving touchdowns over his final two seasons (20 games). Sure, this play could completely flop, but at this dead minimum salary, I’m banking on a payoff. Green Bay has been tough against opposing TE, but this is a play of opportunity and upside. The more I think about it, the more shares I want this weekend.
Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
Last week saw even more injuries to the TE position again. Irv Smith Jr is now on the IR, Mike Gesicki found the end zone. George Kittle did what he does, and we are ready to move on to Week 9! We are officially at the midway point of the season (half way through the games at least).
Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 8 on FanDuel and DraftKings! It would be the midway point of the season in a normal 16-game season already! Let’s find ourselves a few edges as we climb the leaderboards once again!
After a short hiatus, we welcome Mr. Ertz back to the Tight End article. He draws the best matchup on the board against Seattle once again. Coincidentally, Arizona is now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing TE, but that matters little here. Seattle is still serving up 20+ fantasy points per game to TE, and Ertz was pretty much the only Cardinal who showed up in the first meeting (7-70).
DeAndre Hopkins is back, but Marquise Brown is on the shelf for the foreseeable future, so Ertz is still one of the top options in this offense. I’d be willing to wager we see more than 28 total points in the rematch here. Ertz is the most expensive option on both sites with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce both on showdown slates. That doesn’t shy me away from him at all. I expect some fireworks here, and Ertz has a solid floor in this one.
Everett has seen 16 targets over his last two contests, and has built a solid rapport with Justin Herbert. Even better? Mike Williams has already been ruled OUT for this one. Keenan Allen seems to be behind schedule in his recovery from a hamstring injury. Behind Austin Ekeler, Everett may be the most reliable member of the Chargers offense on Sunday.
Only the aforementioned Seahawks and Cardinals have allowed more yardage to TE than the Falcons’ 552 this season. Increased looks are coming his way. He is averaging eight targets a game over the last two…this is a perfect storm for Everett. I will likely have Everett in a LOT of my lineups in Week 9.
We all saw the disaster that was the Bengals’ offense on Monday Night Football. I’m far from a Zac Taylor apologist. When this offense has missed EITHER JaMarr Chase or Tee Higgins, Taylor has completely lost it. Enough about Zac. Hurst has been clear about how happy he is to be in Cincinnati and be part of something special. The Bengals have no choice but to win as much as possible the rest of the season.
Over his last five games, Hurst has posted 11.7, 17.3, 5.1, 10.8, and 8.2 DraftKings points. The Panthers have been middle of the pack against TE in 2022. Volume is king here once again, and I’d be stunned to see Hurst with less than 6 targets as a floor. Burrow will be looking his way early and often. With the way the Bengals defense is depleted right now, Carolina will likely make this one close. Hurst has a big ceiling here in my book.
I don’t know how you feel about the term “smash spot”, but regardless of your take, Engram is definitely in one this weekend. The Raiders have quietly been dominated by TE this season, allowing the 2nd-most TD (6), 2nd-most Red Zone targets (15), and the MOST goal-to-go targets (10).
Engram has flown under the radar big time this season, posting DraftKings totals of 12.9, 9, 10.7, and 15.5 over his last four games. After the hot start by Christian Kirk this season, the Jaguars WR have largely been a disappointment. They continue to lose games, which leads them into more obvious passing situations. Nobody has an idea what is going on with the Raiders, but they certainly aren’t mailing it in for the season yet. This one has sneaky shootout potential, and Engram is crazy cheap for his potential value.
I have found the ultimate punt play. With TJ Hockenson shipped out of town to division rival Minnesota, there are plenty of opportunities to be had in this Lions offense. Brock Wright is technically listed as the next man up here, but is dealing with a concussion.
Mitchell was a dual-threat in college at Virginia Tech, with five rushing and six receiving touchdowns over his final two seasons (20 games). Sure, this play could completely flop, but at this dead minimum salary, I’m banking on a payoff. Green Bay has been tough against opposing TE, but this is a play of opportunity and upside. The more I think about it, the more shares I want this weekend.
Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
Well, we are just about halfway through the NFL season here in Week 8 and each game is becoming more and more critical to the league as we move in deeper. As starters begin to wear down and miss time due to injury, their backups slide in to pick up where they left off, and at the same time provide value in DFS. Our projection model is like the Holy Grail on Sunday mornings, it keeps us from needing a Hail Mary to cash in our tickets! Always remember to hop on our Discord chat and tag me @JDiCarlo78 or any of our staff for questions or advice, now let’s break down this Week 8 slate!
A quarterback competition has erupted in New England thanks to head coach Bill Bellichick losing faith in his 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones after only 3 series on Monday night. Backup QB Bailey Zappe then gets his number called only to end up playing poorly in the second half to lose at home. So what does this mean for DFS? Play it safe and stay clear of the New England pass offense. Stick with the Patriots’ golden goose, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who has obliterated stat sheets averaging over 20 fantasy points a game in his last three starts. We always do like a defense that gets to pick on Zach Wilson too so that Pats DST is in full effect.
New York lost Breece Hall for the rest of the season last week to a torn ACL, which will have serious repercussions for this Jets’ run-heavy offense moving forward. The Jets did trade for Jaguars’ 1,000-yard rusher James Robinson this week, but talk has been to limit him until he gets up to speed in the offense. This leaves change-of-pace running back Michael Carter to inherit New York’s backfield against a Patriot’s run defense that forfeited over 200 yards rushing to Chicago on Monday night. And since the Patriots still can’t figure out who to hike the ball, start up the Jets DST too, why not?
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett will see the toughest defense he’s ever laid his young eyes on in Philly this weekend. The Eagles also added All-Pro defensive end Robert Quinn via trade from Chicago this week which should be should be even more pressure on Pickett. Avoid the Steelers like the plague for Week 8.
Returning from a bye week at 6-0, the Eagles should close this game out by halftime facing the woeful 2-5 Steelers. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has shown us to be a true leader on the field and his talent has been key to Phila’s success. Use him nude or pair him with an Eagle receiver, and running back Miles Sanders should have a positive game script being favored by double-digits. If you have enough salary left in your builds, the Eagles DST will also be in full effect seeing a rookie quarterback with an absent running game. But beware of a potential blowout, many Eagles may be on the bench in the fourth quarter if it does get out of hand, so don’t go too heavy on Philadelphia.
Fins up in Detroit! Tua and Tyreek will be busy in the Silverdome racking up fantasy points together. The Lions have ranked in the bottom of the barrel in pass coverage (31st in receiving DVOA) and stopping the run (30th in rushing DVOA), which also sets up Raheem Mostert nicely as did Zeke last weekend in Dallas.
Detroit will need to keep up the high pace of Miami, which shouldn’t be a big deal so long as Amon–Ra and D’Andre Swift are good to go. Quarterback Jared Goff being back at home should perform much better than the road QB imposter. And with his weapons back at full strength, we should see some fireworks against Miami, who also has struggled defensively this year (28th in receiving DVOA).
Kyler Murray will look to repeat his performance from the last time he played Minnesota throwing for 400 yards and 4 total touchdowns, 1 of them scurried in himself. Now with his main man DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension, anything is possible. The duo from the desert have not missed a beat over the lost time, hooking up on 10 of 14 targets for 103 yards last week. The Vikings are no stranger to getting beat by the pass, as they rank the fifth-worst in air yards allowed per game.
The Cardinals have been like a red-headed stepson when it comes to its secondary and our projection model, and this week their punching bag Marco Wilson gets to try and contain Justin Jefferson. Adam Thielen will get a sprinkle of Wilson’s coverage too, but the one position Arizona completely ignores is the tight end. Irv Smith is sitting pretty this weekend at $3,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel. Don’t forget about Cousins, as he will be the guy to get these fellas the pigskin.
Last week Carolina handed the Bucs and Tom Brady possibly the worst loss of his career, holding them to a single field goal. The team has been reborn since star running back Christian McCaffrey, guys like DJ Moore have finally resurfaced in DFS. Moore’s line of 7 REC/69 YDS/1 TD of last week can be even better in Atlanta (32nd DVOA to receivers). Even more, news broke on Friday as running back Chuba Hubbard will sit out with an ankle, leaving the backfield to D’Onta Foreman. The Panther lead back for Week 8 still has some pep in his step, rushing for 168 yards against Tampa.
The Falcons’ run-first, slow-pace offense has been grinding it out in the trenches all season, and at the same time destroying its roster in fantasy value. Kyle Pitts…who? The one shining star here is rookie Drake London, who also is beginning to feel the effects of the scheme. You can’t really trust any of Atlanta’s assets in cash, use them in tournaments only…which would only be London for me.
Chicago is flying high on a short week with their upset win in New England. If they want to keep the ball rolling, they must stick to the run game. The Bears will continue the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert in the run game, with quarterback Justin Fields too. The Cowboys will be looking to pounce on every snap, so Fields will need to make the right decisions. Chicago’s three-headed monster ran for 200 yards as a unit against the Patriots, they’ll keep that playbook this week.
After scoring two touchdowns hosting the Lions last week, Zeke’s knee will keep him sidelined this weekend. Tony Pollard is a lay-up, so sleep like a baby in one of your RB slots for Week 8. The Bears have been generous to opposing running backs, allowing a healthy double-digit fantasy score in 6 of 7 weeks.
The flu bug bit a bunch of players for Vegas this week including Davonte Adams, keeping them out of practice up until Friday. New Orleans once again is without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore, so all of Vegas’ receivers will eat, especially Adams. For some value on this slate, Mack Hollins ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) has taken a liking to Derek Carr, seeing 366 total snaps, and could eat here also in the “Big Easy”.
Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston at quarterback, the ball has been funneled to rookie stud Chris Olave. Fellow receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out again, so Olave is a lock once more, averaging close to 17 DK points per game. Keep in mind if Vegas does decide to put some pressure on Dalton, Kamara can also be effective as a PPR machine on Sunday.
I’ll keep writing this every week if I have to, this team goes where Derrick Henry goes…and in Houston, it could get ugly this weekend. The Texans are dead last against the run, so one of the best there is in Henry may be worth paying up for at running back.
If and when Houston can get the ball on offense, they will be throwing it at one of the weakest secondaries in the league (31st in DVOA). Pay attention to the injury news for Houston about Nico Collins. If he is out (has missed practice all week) slide in Phillip Dorsett ($3,200 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) for huge savings at wideout.
At 6-1, New York keeps making the haters shake their heads every week in disbelief. A very sneaky solid defense and Saquon Barkley have been the key to success this year. In what looks to be a soggy afternoon in Seattle, use them both. Watch out but the Giants may have one decent receiver rookie Wandale Robinson, who will see a great matchup against Seattle’s Coby Bryant.
It looks like DK Metcalf is not suiting up this week, and if he does, we will still stay away. Mr. Lockett too, this Giants’ defense has been a problem to quarterbacks and receivers all year ( averaging 211 yards passing per game allowed) The run defense is a tale of two cities, ranked 28th and allowing 144 yards per game. Seahawks rookie first-round pick Kenneth Walker is in line for a huge day, and still way too cheap on DraftKings ($6,500).
The Colts will be rolling out quarterback Sam Ehlinger to make his first career start, which makes the Commander defense pretty enticing. Priced affordably ($2,600 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel), they’re worth a shot in order to save up and possibly smash if Ehlinger slips up.
The flip side of Ehlinger is how we can have a quarterback for minimum value ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) who has a great chance to pay off his salary and go nuts on a terrible Commanders secondary. Play him naked, since there is no real history of who he will favor. But from the buzz I’ve heard over the news sites, he will be a much more mobile quarterback than Matt Ryan.
Wide-back Deebo Samuel news broke Friday that he will sit this one out, which would beef up the target share for every other Niner. CMC is still way too expensive to trust yet in this new offense, especially against a stingy LA run defense. Jimmy G will have to go to battle with his new shoulder on the road, the next men up are Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The field will be elsewhere on the slate so these two will fit nicer in a GPP.
If you have to pay up, then your man is Cooper Kupp. He’s approaching $10,000 on both formats so it may be wise to avoid Kupp until he becomes a little cheaper. Other than Kupp, Matt Stafford looks to tight end, Tyler Higbee, a ton compared to the rest of the team (34 REC/50 TGTS). Lastly, Deebo out of the mix could spell trouble for Jimmy G and the Niners’ banged-up offensive line. The Rams DST would be an under-the-radar play considering the sacks and fumbles that may occur if the Niners can’t get open.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 8. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and me talking plays across every sport.
Upset after upset, there were a few games to put in the back of our heads from Week 6. That’s why we need to stick to our 50/50s in order to keep our bankrolls afloat. But Week 6’s curveballs did not stop one of our subscribers from taking down a GPP for $3K... congrats again you know who you are! Josh Allen, Stef Diggs, Kelce, and Andrews all got us there. Stick to Stix’s projection model, it works and answers most of your questions on who to start up until kickoff. So we have another 11-game slate but with some real bangers on bye…Buffalo and Phila, are two of the best rosters for fantasy. The Vikes and Rams are off too, so no Kupp or JJ this week either. But we got this, still plenty of paths to victory this week! Keep in mind I’m always on our Discord chat guys, just tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Now let’s break down this Week 7 slate!
New York at an astounding 5-1 record, has dominated in the clutch with their defense and utilized their most dynamic weapon when the ball is in his hands. Wink Martindale loves to play man-to-man and blitz a ton, we shall see how Lawrence reacts to the pressure. As for Saquon Barkley, he continues to put the G-men on his back from week to week averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. The model is all over QB Daniel Jones in this spot. His price tag has dropped, but the upside is there for potential rushing yards.
Christian Kirk has been quiet in the past few weeks but gets a nice matchup if he can line up on the inside. The veteran and number-one option for Trevor Lawrence could easily outmaneuver Giants’ slot corner Adoree’ Jackson and get his rocks off this weekend.
Green Bay is desperate for a win after losing two straight as heavy favorites. In order to get back in the win column, Rodgers will need to throw it into that gross Commanders’ secondary. Allen Lazard has hooked up with the future Hall of Famer 4 times in the endzone already and may add more touchdowns in D.C. if they can focus on their weakness at secondary (26th in DVOA).
With Carson Wentz out for 4-6 weeks, Taylor Heinicke will be back under center again for Washington. He’s got experience as a starter since 2020 but facing a Packer team hungry for a win could spell trouble for him against a top defense in the league. Head Coach Ron Rivera has made it loud and clear to get rookie Bryan Robinson plenty of touches, and the Packers are a team that is best to run on (Breece Hall last week) who are (21st in DVOA).
Detroit returning from a bye week will hopefully keep the fantasy output consistent in Dallas. Stud receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been practicing after twisting an ankle and looks to be on pace to play Sunday, but running back D’Andre Swift is still a no-show this week. No sweat, Jamaal Williams (16 FPTS./Game) has filled in perfectly and will still be force-fed the rock if Swift can’t suit up. Goff as always will be chasing a lead, but with the pressure from this Dallas front line and the constant blitzing of Micah Parsons, we should stay clear.
Welcome back Dak! Finally, since Week One we may see some more of the offense in Dallas. Backup Cooper Rush did manage his way to a 4-1 record and could’ve been giving Prescott goosebumps about losing his job. He’ll look to solidify himself again on Sunday against the most generous of opponents (30th in DVOA). Of course, Lamb and Zeke are good too this week, slide them right in your lineups.
Atlanta even with its shaky defense still puts up a good fight and has brought most of its games down to the final snap. But when they have the ball, the Falcons revolve around their first-round pick Drake London. Though he’s tapered off a little in receptions, he should see some Eli Apple who has been picked on by plenty of the elite receivers around the league. Mariota has been efficient as of late, rushing for 111 yards in his last two games with a rushing touchdown. If he can keep it up this week he should have a great ROI of 3X.
Burrow and Chase smashed last weekend in their return back home to where they started out in Louisiana combining for a total of 70 FPTS against the Saints. They can have a repeat performance with another nice matchup on paper at home, Atlanta we know has been a stomping ground for quarterbacks and receivers this year. Running back Joe Mixon has also been in the mix of the offense putting up double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis, if the game script stays positive, Mixon will feast.
The GOAT was back in the news this week squashing rumors of him retiring mid-season. The 45-year-old Brady may have to hang up his cleats if he can’t drop the hammer on Carolina, who just dealt their number one offensive threat, Christian McCaffrey, to the Niners. All the key weapons are in play for Tampa against a Panther team clearly headed to the top of the draft order. We all know Brady and what he does best, winning and proving the haters wrong. Expect a big game, in Brady’s 4 career games against Carolina the Bucs have scored 30 plus points.
Only a few days after dealing wide receiver Robbie Anderson, out goes their best player in McCaffrey to San Fransisco for a cluster of draft picks. It’s obvious now there is a huge void in the Panther offense which leaves the last man standing as DJ Moore. I’m only interested in any opposing defenses at this point in the season for Carolina, and this week is the Bucs. But if you’re feeling lucky take a shot on Moore, as the interim Carolina head coach Steve Wilks came out publicly stating that the team will be built around him moving forward.
Cleveland may be behind the eightball here in this division game on the road. Lamar may be letting out some of his frustration on the Browns’ beatable run defense (29th in DVOA). The same can be said of Baltimore’s secondary who has given up one big play to another this year. Donovan Peoples-Jones is the guy to get that deep shot. Kareem Hunt’s pass-catching services could also be needed if the Browns play hurry-up if they do fall behind a wide margin.
After lighting it up to begin the season, Jackson has fallen back down to earth scoring less than 20 FPTS in his last 4 games. Well, the dog pound is in town and Jackson could very possibly get himself out of the dog house of his fantasy managers on Sunday. Cleveland allows almost 28 points per game, and Mark Andrews (34 Receptions on 50 Targets) would benefit across the field from Lamar so long as he can suit up and log a practice before Sunday.
Matt Ryan off a 389-yard/3 TD game gets another crack at duplicating his performance against the Titans who have the second-worst receiver coverage in the league. It’s hard to trust Ryan to replicate that even with the juicy matchup, but his receivers we can. Pittman has been his go-to alpha and rookie Alec Pierce has built chemistry with the veteran racking up double-digit fantasy points for three straight games.
The Titans continue to ride the Derrick Henry train on offense, lately having plenty of success. So long as the game is within reach, Henry will keep getting fed the ball and is really the only reliable fantasy asset in Tennessee.
The other over-achieving New York team is at Mile High on Sunday Afternoon. Instead of winning without receivers like the Giants, they win without a quarterback (Zach Wilson). Head Coach Robert Saleh has the Jets literally running on all cylinders behind Breece Hall and Michael Carter. They could very well do some damage in Denver, but not as much as Russell Wilson thus far. New York’s defense has been the highest scoring for fantasy over the past 3 weeks, and to get a crack at one of the most overrated quarterbacks would be a dream come true on Sunday.
Coach Lovey Smith will continue to ride the hot hand with rookie running back Dameon Pierce. Rushing a solid 5.7 yards per carry, Pierce plows through defensive lines and keeps the pressure off quarterback Davis Mills. The Texan running game has opened doors for its young receivers, like Nico Collins. A mear ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) could get you double-digit fantasy points which he’s had for his last two starts.
Tight end Darren Waller will sit out coming off a bye week, and Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins are questionable going into the weekend. This news just gets us even more excited for the amount of volume for Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, who will be a knockout one-two punch to the exploitable Houston defense (32nd in DVOA in rushing) (Adams gets coverage from rookie Derrick Stingley Jr.).
Don’t let that little red OPR Rank number scare you away from drafting any Chiefs this Sunday. San Fran is still burdened by injuries to their defensive starters. Even if they were all 100 percent, who cares it’s Kansas City, and Mahomes will throw it 50 times if he has to. The Niners are in fact tough on opposing running backs, so beware of CEH. Kelce needs no explanation, he’s a lock. It’s finding which Chief receiver will go off each week. The Model is loving some MVS…when in doubt check the analytics.
San Fransisco pushed their chips all in this week trading for Christian McCaffrey on Thursday. This move puts them in conversations for the Super Bowl by acquiring the caliber of player in McCaffrey. He will suit up Sunday against the Chiefs as of now, but we may not want to buy in too soon at his current price tag unknowingly his role yet. Jimmy G and Deebo I would bet are the safest pieces here, maybe Kittle too (if the Chiefs line up in a lot of Cover 4, that would open up the middle of the field).
Geno and the crew are perceived to be in another shoot-out with a high-point total and a 6-point dog. He unexpectedly stunk it up on us last week with a 14-point downer, but in another negative game script, he will have to keep up the pace, peppering his favorite receiver DK Metcalf (50 targets, leads the team). Kenneth Walker was excellent against Arizona (110 total yards/1 TD) and will continue to get better, LA is a disgusting third worst defending the run.
Gunslinger quarterback Justin Herbert may get his main man Keenan Allen back and boy did he miss him. Herbert has not hit the 20 fantasy point mark since Week 4 and was held to no touchdown passes last week. Allen is a true game-time decision but is “hoping” to play. Kennan in the rotation spreads out the middle of the field opposite Mike Williams and creates havoc for opposing defenses across the middle. Thankfully Austin Ekeler has been on fire and picking up the slack and keeping the Chargers’ head above water. He also will draw the 26th-ranked fantasy run defense, so get him in if you can, especially if Allen can’t play.
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. I can’t believe we are already in Week 7, let’s stay focused and keep getting richer!
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