NFL DFS GPP

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18

It is the final week of the regular season and we have two games on Saturday and then a normal 13 game slate on Sunday, so there is a ton of football to get to. While this article will continue into the postseason, I just want to say thank you to anyone and everyone that has read this beast all year long. I know it can be a lot to read and I truly appreciate taking time out of your schedules to give it a look. Let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18 and see if we can replicate the success of Week 17, which was filled with monster green screens!

Saturday Slate

Chiefs at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Chiefs -10.5)

Chiefs (Clinched, outside shot at #1 seed)

QB – It will always feel scary to fade Patrick Mahomes on such a short slate because he has the highest ceiling of anyone. While others can get close, Mahomes is sixth in red-zone attempts, sixth in pass yards, 10th in air yards, and third in touchdowns. Denver is down to 20th in DVOA against the pass and will be missing arguably their best corner as well, a bad sign for that defense. Mahomes is fifth in points per game and could be set to explode as the Chiefs must win this game to have any hope at the #1 seed. 

RB – If Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains out, Darrell Williams is going to be extremely popular on this slate. If it seems like Williams is having the more productive season, it’s likely because of the touchdowns. CEH averages slightly more rushing yards per carry and but Williams has a 14-2 lead in attempts inside the five. Regardless of how you feel about CEH, that’s a major hit to his ceiling if he’s active and Williams averages almost 10 yards per reception as well. Denver is allowing 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground but KC still has the motivation to play. We’ll see what the week brings in practice. 

Update – CEH is out for this game

WR – The past two weeks it has been anyone but Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs receiving corps, as he’s totaled just 14.1 DraftKings points while Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle have combined for four touchdowns and over 200 yards. Last week, Hill played his normal 85% of snaps and had 10 targets so there’s not much of a reason to think that the past two weeks have been anything but a weird blip on the radar. When he’s in the slot (almost 38% of the time), Kyle Fuller should be there and has allowed a 111.3 passer rating and 14.0 YPR. With Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby out from this secondary, the matchup is a lot easier. Hardman has the highest target share among the secondary receivers at 12.1% and is in play for large-field GPP. 

TE – Travis Kelce is likely to be very popular on this slate because A. he’s Travis Kelce and B. the drop from him to almost any other option could be steep. We’re going to get as much of a full workload as possible and Kelce was very close to having a two touchdown game last week, which would have changed his box score by an awful lot. He’s still second among tight ends in receptions, yards, points per game, unrealized air yards, and he’s tied for the lead with nine touchdowns. Denver has only allowed one score on the season to the position, but we’ll need to see if there are any other viable alternatives on this slate. 

D/ST – The Chiefs are likely to be the highest-rostered defense on this slate and I’m not here to argue. They struggled last week but the Denver offense is not the same and they have a 26% pressure rate while Denver has allowed the second-highest pressure rate on the season. Being ranked 24th in total DVOA isn’t accurate for how they’ve been playing and they have forced the third-most turnovers on the year. 

Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Williams, D/ST, Hardman

Broncos 

QB – In his two starts, Drew Lock has combined for 47 pass attempts and that right there says an awful lot. The good news is he can hit the deep ball to some extent and has a completion of at least 40 yards in each game and he hasn’t turned the ball over, but 15 DraftKings points would almost surely be the lowest score among the four options. If you play Lock, you have to hope he gets some garbage time, scores over 20 DK, and you get all the skill positions right. 

RB – When you’re looking at game logs, don’t forget that Javonte Williams faced the Chiefs the first time without Melvin Gordon. It would be pretty impressive for him to score 32 DraftKings points again and the split continues for the backfield. Last week saw MG3 take 13 touches while Williams had 15 and Gordon generated 71 scrimmage yards to 32 for Williams. Kansas City is 28th in yards per attempt allowed and with a near 50/50 split, it’s hard to get behind either player just like the rest of the season when they were both healthy. The Chiefs have also played better on defense because Joe Burrow isn’t on the other side in this game. 

WR – Denver will have all three receivers back in this game with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick returning to the lineup. Courtland Sutton was about the only receiver active last week but only managed nine DraftKings points and if Lock continues to not throw the ball very often, there just isn’t much to go around here. Jeudy and Sutton do not have statistically easy matchups and L’Jarius Sneed plays a good deal of slot corner for KC and he’s allowed 1.51 points per target while Charvarius Ward has the fifth-best catch rate allowed at 45.8% across 59 targets. Rashad Fenton would likely square off against Patrick and he’s only allowed 1.37 points per target. In all, nobody has a great matchup and this would be a salary-saving move, but I’ll bet one is more popular in the next game. 

TE – We finally got a ceiling game for Noah Fant and it only took the Broncos missing two of their top three receivers, so keep that in mind when considering his salary. If he’s out, the punt of Albert Okwuegbunam becomes much more viable, since he’s nearly minimum salary. Fant is fifth in receptions but just 10th in yards and he’s 25th in yards per reception, which is suboptimal. He’s not one of my primary targets but that could change given the state of the position on this two-gamer. 

D/ST – I can’t advocate playing Denver as they could be without star corner Patrick Surtain and others this week, and the Chiefs have their backs against the wall as far as seeding and hoping for a bye week. 

Targets – Jeudy, Williams, Sutton, Gordon, Fant, Patrick 

Cowboys at Eagles, O/U of 43.5 (Cowboys -5)

Cowboys (Clinched NFC East)

Note – The Cowboys seem like they are going to play starters, and that honestly makes me sense. They may not be able to move in the standings but the offense needs some mojo and they lost a key receiver for the year. Unless something changes, I think we approach it as a normal game.

QB – For as bad as it seemed Dak Prescott played last week, he still scored 24 DraftKings points and is in theory a pivot to Mahomes. Three passing touchdowns end to go a long way and he’s up to eighth in passing touchdowns at the year at 32. Dak is just 14th in points per dropback but he’s seventh in attempts and red-zone attempts, which helps equal things out. He’s also top 10 in passing yards but the Chiefs defense has mostly been better, past last week. They are 22nd in DVOA on the season but that’s not accurate as of late, so Dak has some risk to him. 

RB – Short of injury, I never thought we’d see Ezekiel Elliott finish at just four DraftKings points but he had just 10 touches last week. His rough season leaves him in a weird spot because on a short slate, he’s one of the few players that has multi-touchdown upside. He’s also averaging just 57.2 rushing yards per game despite ranking sixth in carries on the season. Maybe it’s a bit unfair, but Zeke has fewer rushing yards than Derrick Henry with double the amount of games played. Philly has been good against the run this year ranking in the top half of the league in rush yards allowed to backs and top-five in yards allowed per attempt. I don’t think I’ll play Zeke on this slate and with him being active, Tony Pollard is not a strong option either. 

WR – It’s a little early in the week to know for sure but I’m betting Cedrick Wilson will be among the most popular players on the slate. He played 46.9% of the snaps after Michael Gallup was injured last week and saw six targets, including two in the red zone. He’s going to be a large part of the offense moving forward and at $4,200, he’s wildly too cheap. It was also nice to see CeeDee Lamb play 87% of the snaps last week (finally) and that concern should be out the window with Gallup on the shelf Lamb should be on the field almost at all times and why he got just four targets last week is incredible. He should avoid Darius Slay, which would be a nice bonus. Slay would mostly be on Amari Cooper and he’s only allowed 1.28 points per target in the year. With the salaried being so close, I would play Lamb and it will be interesting to see if one of those two gave some leverage away from Wilson. 

TE – One of the reasons I’m not looking at Fant is because we have two strong options in this game, potentially. I also said “could” when I said the drop from Kelce to the next tight end could be steep because Dalton Schultz has a shot at a big game here. With Gallup out of the offense, Schultz continued to see massive targets and he’s seen eight, nine, and 10 in the past three weeks. That is serious volume, as in tied for seventh in the league across that span. On top of that, Philly has allowed the most receptions against tight ends this year and the second-most touchdowns, so this is a great matchup all the way around. 

D/ST – Micah Parsons is on the Covid list so I want to see his status before we can make a decision. I really don’t mind them as a pivot as they are first in total DVOA and they are tied for the most turnovers forced. The pressure rate is over 27% and they are seventh in points allowed per game. If they are half the ownership of the Chiefs, that’s an easy way to get different. 

Update – Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown are out, opening up this secondary even more.

Targets – Wilson, Schultz, Lamb, Dak, Zeke, Cooper

Eagles (Clinched playoffs, cannot win Division)

Note – The Eagles still have a bunch of players on the Covid list that we’ll need some resolution to before kickoff of the first game. As of now, center Jason Kelce is the only one activated.

QB – Dallas is such a weird matchup because they are first in DVOA against the pass but they’ve allowed 6.7 yards per attempt, 20th in the league. They can give up yards in bunches but they force turnovers like almost no other team. Jalen Hurts is questionable as of now and the Eagles could wind up sitting him, so we need more information before we decide. Gardner Minshew would likely get some love if he starts, but just remember that the Jets are not the same defense as the Cowboys. 

RB – The game being on Saturday makes the turnaround quicker and that could have negative effects on Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. They are in protocols as of Monday with time to be active for Saturday but it’s not a guarantee. Miles Sanders is all but ruled out so Kenneth Gainwell could wind up being the last man standing in this spot. If everyone is active, Howard could be a very interesting GPP option because of everyone likely flocks to Scott. He scored twice but the gap in everything else was much closer than the game log suggests. Scott has Howard in the passing game, hands down. The running game was closer as Scott led 14-11 in carries, 41% to 32% in snaps, 4-3 in red-zone attempts, and 3-2 in carries inside the five. If Howards gets the two scores, things are way different and this would be deeper GPP only. That’s also pending the health of the backfield. 

Update- Gainwell and Jason Huntley as potentially the backs that would handle the bulk of the work.

WR – It always looks like Devonta Smith should be a better option than he turns out to be even though he’s 12th in air yards among receivers seventh in aDOT. Part of the issue is he’s also 10th in unrealized air yards and he’s only been targeted in the red zone a total of eight times this year, which is good for 55th. Smith is also only 35th in points per game and has found the paint just five times, while the matchup is a mixed bag. Trevon Diggs has made a crazy amount of splash plays this year but he’s been on the receiving end of a ton as well. He’s up to a 19.0 YPR, a 112.1 passer rating, and 2.01 points per target. The potential for Smith is certainly there but so is the volatility. We’ll see who’s active for this game on each side before dipping into Quez Watkins or anyone else. 

TE – Provided Dallas Goedert can be active for this game, he’s plenty appealing as well. Goedert is up to fifth in receiving yards, a bit of a surprise at this juncture. It follows that Goedert is leading the position in yards per target and yards run per route, which I’m betting we could have made a lot of money on in preseason had we predicted that. The 18.6% target share is good for 10th in the league among his position and Dallas is just average at defending the tight end. Let’s see if he can clear protocols for this before looking too far in his direction, and I would not be interested in a backup option. 

D/ST – Philly has defensive players in the protocols and may sit some of their starters, so we’ll circle back. With how poorly the Dallas offense has been playing, I could get on board. The issues just come down to having just 28 sacks and 16 turnovers forced on the season. 

Targets – TBD by the Covid situation

Sunday Main Slate

Packers at Lions, O/U of 45 (Packers -3.5)

Packers (Clinched #1 Seed in NFC)

QB – According to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers and the other starters are going to play in this game but I have a really hard time believing that. Rodgers is the league MVP (despite what some clown writer seems to think) and there is nothing to gain here. There is only risk in playing Rodgers for more than a series or two and I think Green Bay could score quick and yank them. On top of that, Rodgers is pushing $8,000 and that starts to get a little rich for a quarterback who doesn’t have any rushing upside. You need at least three touchdowns and over 250 yards to make this work and I can’t see why Rodgers would get there. 

Note – The fact the Packers are ONLY 3.5 point favorites should be a giant red flag about how much Vegas expects them to play.

RB – The smart money here would be on the Packers sitting Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. We saw Patrick Taylor take six carries in the back-half of the fourth quarter last week and we have to pay attention to him at the minimum salary if that’s the case. Now the caveat here is he’s not likely to play with the first-team offense but the Detroit defense is Swiss cheese and is 29th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 22nd in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – I can sit here and tell you that Davante Adams is second in targets, first in target share, second n receptions, and third in yards and all of that would be true. It’s also true that the Detroit defense has about a 0.01% chance of stopping him if he plays the entire game, but that’s the biggest hangup. If he’s out early, $9,400 will kill you. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard would be in play to some extent, but they could sit early and/or be dealing with Jordan Love at quarterback. I know there hasn’t been a ton of metrics used for Green Bay, but you simply can’t play them in anything other than GPP. Despite the claims of playing the starters, this feels like a large trap and it gets treated like a preseason game. 

TE – Josiah Deguara is the TE1 in the offense, but that hasn’t amounted to much outside of a random touchdown, so we don’t need to look that closely here. We’re talking about a target share of just 5.7%. 

D/ST – Even if Green Bay isn’t playing every starter, the Lions offense isn’t the scariest unit around. I don’t think we need to pay this price but they do have 38 sacks and 26 turnovers forced with a pressure rate over 24%. Only seven teams have allowed fewer points per game and the Pack is 19th in overall DVOA. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Adams, D/ST, Rodgers, maybe one of the backs but I’m treading very lightly here 

Lions 

QB – The Lions say that Tim Boyle is the presumed starter again this week and he did garbage time his way to 18.9 DraftKings points last week. If the Packers truly play their starters, it’s a poor matchup as they are 12th in DVOA against the pass, third in yards allowed per attempt, and eighth in completion rate allowed. Boyle looks like a very poor option in points per dropback, where he would rank in the 30’s across a full season so I think we can pass here. 

Update – Goff is questionable after being limited in all practice all week, but this isn’t a situation I’m chasing.

RB – I think we can safely run away from the backfield now that Detroit has shown their hands in that they will not play D’Andre Swift meaningful snaps at the end of the year. I don’t blame them, but it would have been nice to know after he was a full practice all last week. Jamaal Williams took all the work but with 11 carries and 50% of the snaps but I wonder if he gets iced out as well. They know full well what Williams can and can’t do and maybe Craig Reynolds gets more work. Either way, this isn’t the backfield that I’m looking to get into this week. 

WR – I didn’t think we’d get to a point where Amon-Ra St. Brown would be $6,800 but it’s hard to say the salary isn’t deserved. In the past five weeks, he’s third in the league in targets and only Cooper Kupp has more PPR points among receivers. He’s clearly leading the Lions in the time at a 33.3% target share and he’s been in double-digits in every game for five straight weeks while never dipping below 15.3 DraftKings points. With little other threats in this offense, there’s no reason to thank anything changes this week and now he’s proven he can get it down regardless of the quarterback. St. Brown is a perfectly fine option no matter the format and if the Packers play the starters as they claim, Chandon Sullivan is in the slot with 1.98 points per target allowed. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance in the Detroit offense. 

D/ST – You can’t really run the risk that Green Bay is telling the truth about playing starters because if they do, this defense can’t hang with them. They rank 30th in total DVOA and points per game allowed while being tied for the second-fewest sacks this year. 

Cash – St. Brown

GPP – None past St. Brown 

Colts at Jaguars, O/U of 44 (Colts -15.5)

Colts (Win and In)

QB – Carson Wentz better get his game together because he played very poorly last week, not completing 60% of his passes and throwing one of the luckier touchdowns of the season. Past the Jaguars ranking 32nd in DVOA against the pass and is the only team giving up a 70% completion rate, there’s not a lot to love for Wentz from the data. He’s average across the board at 18th in deep attempts, 15th in points per dropback, 18th in points per game, 18th in yards, and just 27th in true completion rate. We should fully expect the Colts to run a lot in this one, as they did last week and Wentz doesn’t even have a great floor. 

RB – Much like another fantasy elite player on this slate, Jonathan Taylor is the perfect mix of a great player who needs a victory and gets an incredible spot. The Jaguars are in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to backs with the third-most rushing touchdowns and 15th in yards per attempt allowed. Taylor leads the league in carries and is the only player with over 300 on the year at 317. In addition, he has 83 red-zone attempts and the next closest is Dalvin Cook at 45. That is ridiculous, Taylor is almost lapping the field. With potential big values with teams resting players, it’s not crazy to attempt builds with Taylor and Cooper Kupp, which we’ll find along the way. 

WR – If we’re on the train of JT is going to get all the work he can handle, Michael Pittman should really be the only Colts receiver that we look at. Past T.Y. Hilton getting the super lucky touchdown, nobody did much of anything last week as Wentz struggled to get it going. Pittman is in the top 10 in yards, receptions, target share, targets, and yards run per route but he’s 26th in points per game. That has a lot to do with just five touchdowns and the inconsistency of Wentz along with the run game taking the bulk of the stats. Still, it is a soft matchup and he could see some of Tyson Campbell and Shaquill Griffin. While Griffin is the better corner, both have allowed at least 1.64 points per target and a passer rating over 100 on the year. 

TE – Jack Doyle was active last week but played 38% of the snaps and was not targeted. Mo Alie-Cox played 58% of the snaps and was targeted five times, but it feels awfully thin to go down this road. Alie-Cox has just an 8.9% target share on the season and the only potential saving grace is he’s third in red-zone targets on the team but 21st among tight ends. 

D/ST – Other than the salary, the Colts are a phenomenal play. They are tied for the most takeaways in the league, they’re in the top 12 in points allowed per game, and they’re seventh in total DVOA. Jacksonville has 29 turnovers, the most in the league, and has allowed 31 sacks. 

Cash – Taylor, Pittman

GPP – D/ST, Wentz

Jaguars

QB – I’m about to start calling Trevor Lawrence “X-Files” because I want to believe. Lawrence has to be better than what he’s put to paper this year…I think. The Colts have been a defense we’ve attacked through the air all year and they rank 14th in DVOA against the pass but 19th in yards per attempt allowed and 15th in completion rate allowed. The bigger issue is Lawrence himself, as he sits 33rd in points per dropback, 29th in points per game, 32nd in true completion rate, 17th in pass yards, and all of that has come with the sixth-most attempts on the season. That is tough to get excited about. 

RB – By all indications, Dare Ogunbowale is the lead back since James Robinson has gone down. He’s played about 72% of the snaps and he has 26 attempts and six targets, both of which easily lead the team. He’s found the paint in each game and has scored at least 14 DraftKings points, so on normal slates, he could be on the board for value. He still is in the pool this week but we likely find better options for potentially much cheaper. Additionally, the Colts defense only has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to backs even though they are 25th in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – Since Week 12 when Laquon Treadwell started getting significant playing time, he’s one target behind Marvin Jones for the team lead and has the lead in points at 66.1 to 49.8. The notable difference is Jones still leads in both red-zone and end zone targets in that span but it just hasn’t translated. With both being affordable, it could be a good time to go after Jones with higher touchdown equity than the field realizes. Indy’s secondary could be missing both Xavier Rhodes and Andrew Sendejo, paving the way for both players to have an easier day…if X-Files can hit them. 

TE – James O’Shaughnessy would be right back in my player pool if he’s active this week. Indy has struggled against the tight end all season and is in the bottom-eight in receptions and yards allowed. He has a 13.4% target share on the season and even though he’s looking for his first touchdown, he’s cheap enough to punt and hope for 5/50 or something along those lines. 

Update – O’Shaughnessy is out this week

D/ST – They have seven takeaways, 26 sacks, and are 31st in total DVOA and points allowed. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Jones, Treadwell, X-Files, Ogunbowale

Washington at Giants, O/U of 37.5 (Washington -7)

Washington

QB – I don’t want to get too involved in this game and Taylor Heinicke isn’t swaying me to think differently. His salary looks appealing but he’s only 19th in points per game and 20th in points per dropback. When you add in that he’s 22nd in yards per attempt, 22nd in true completion rate, and 26th in deep completion rate, there’s not a lot to love here. The Giants are 17th in DVOA against the pass and ninth in yards allowed per attempt, so the matchup isn’t so great that I feel the need to play Heinicke. 

RB – The expectation would be that Antonio Gibson would be back for this game but it’s unclear how much the team will really use him. If they view Gibson as a foundational player for next year (I don’t see how they can’t), he shouldn’t be on the field for much of this game. When Gibson sat last week, Jaret Patterson played 61.9% of the snaps and handled 12 carries, and was targeted five times, catching all five. If he would have the backfield to himself again, he would be a major salary saver against the 29th ranked DVOA against the run. They have also allowed over 2,300 scrimmage yards against the running back position so with J.D. McKissic on the IR, there is value here unless there’s a split backfield. 

WR – It’s still Terry McLaurin or bust in the Washington corps and he had a little bit of positive momentum after last week. True, 7/61/0 isn’t special but that’s better than some of the games McLaurin has produced this year (not all his fault). It’s beyond clear that he has some serious volatility built into his game but the salary is down to $6,200. He’s still leading the league in unrealized air yards which is sad at this point but he’s managed to hang in the top 25 in yards on the year. The points per game look awful at 31st but he’s been capped at the knees by the bad games. It is worth noting that in the first game, McLaurin tormented James Bradberry for the Giants. He dropped 11/107/1 and Bradberry got destroyed in that game. He’s still giving up 1.77 points per target and 12.3 YPR so the upside is there. 

TE – In what was a scary scene, Ricky Seals-Jones had to be put on a backboard last week and taken out of the stadium after a collision with a cameraman. That very likely leaves John Bates as the lone tight end and he’s been seeing a handful of targets lately, with a cap of four. He’s not going to wow anyone but at $3,000, you could do worse. The Giants have allowed the 10th most receptions and Bates is one of those guys that will be looking to put strong effort for next year. 

Update – Seals-Jones is out

D/ST – I’m tempted by the Washington defense as they get to face one of the worst quarterbacks on the slate. Statistically, they don’t warrant consideration since they are 27th in total DVOA and 28th in points allowed. This is totally a matchup play and you just have to decide if you can live with the salary. 

Cash – Gibson (provided Washington plays him)

GPP – McLaurin, Bates 

Giants 

QB – Washington has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year but I will not waste any of my entry fees on Jake Fromm and you can’t make me. He’s gone 12/29 in his limited action so far and has not looked remotely like an NFL-caliber quarterback. 

RB – It’s really hard to get invested in this offense, even if Saquon Barkley did run for 102 yards last week. He was not utilized in the passing game past one target and while it’s nice to see him hit the 100-yard plateau, He’s averaged under 48 rushing yards per game. Washington is inside the top 10 in DVOA against the run and ninth in yards per attempt allowed, so the matchup isn’t exactly easy either. I don’t see a reason to jump in at $6,100 given what the Giants have given us for 17 weeks. 

WR – Kenny Golladay had all of one target last week, Kadarius Toney and Darius Slayton are both questionable, and they have Fromm throwing them the ball. This is one team that I’ll not even look at this week, that’s how bad the situation is. 

TE – I haven’t played Evan Engram all year and that’s not going to change. He’s 20th in receptions and 24th in yards, all while having a 14.7% target share and a horrific quarterback situation. 

D/ST – I may not like the Washington offense but this is a no-fly zone. We saw last week the offense constantly put them in bad spots and they are just 22nd in total DVOA this year with 31 sacks and 23rd in points allowed per game. 

Cash – None 

GPP – None 

Bears at Vikings, O/U of 44 (Vikings -5.5)

Bears

QB – I didn’t think this would happen but Justin Fields is grabbing the start this week, and the salary is tempting along with the matchup. Minnesota is down to 24th in yards allowed per attempt and Fields is 11th in deep completion rate at 40.4%. His last four games that he’s started and finished have produced at least 17.9 DraftKings points and two of them have been over 21 DK. Not surprisingly, his rushing yards have been at least 35 in those games and his attempts have been seven, nine, eight, and 10. I really do like the salary and so far, he is the primary punt option at the position. 

Update – Fields is in protocols Andy Dalton is starting

RB – David Montgomery continues to get fed the ball and this coaching staff needs to have anything positive happen. Hence, Monty will likely get fed in this game as well and in the past two weeks, he has 52 total touches. He’s had a stint on IR this season but is 10th in carries, fifth in red-zone touches, and has a 12.8% target share. Facing Minnesota is a solid matchup as well since they rank 25th in DVOA against the pass, they rank 30th in yards per attempt, and allow the eighth-most rushing yards to back in the league. The salary is starting to get up there a little bit as far as what kind of ceiling he can have but he’s still a fine play in cash. 

WR – Darnell Mooney SZN, that is all. There really are talented pieces in this offense for someone to figure out how to use. He’s coming off the second-most targets this year with 13 and that’s three straight weeks of hitting at least 10.9 DraftKings points. Mooney is actually ninth in unrealized air yards and neither Patrick Peterson nor Cameron Dantzler would worry me here. They’re all above 1.50 points per target and he’s been the alpha in the passing game. I can’t say I trust him in cash, but he’s got some upside in GPP with a big play or a score. 

TE – Cole Kmet is one of those tight ends that you can put in the lineup and get 5-8 points, but anything after that gets pretty scary. He was developing some rapport with Fields for a bit but that’s not going to happen this week. His 18.4% target share is 11th, as are his 56 receptions and he’s 22nd in points per game largely because he still hasn’t found the end zone. Minnesota is in the top half of the league as far as receptions, yards, and touchdowns so I don’t have a strong need to play Kmet. 

Update – With Fields starting, I’m much happier to play Kmet. He was a favorite of Fields for a few weeks and he’s one of the better punt tight ends that I feel confident produces. 

D/ST – I wouldn’t expect 20+ DraftKings points again but the Bears are moderately in play. They’re tied for third in sacks and are 20th in points allowed per game. One issue is they only have 16 turnovers forced but they are 13th in total DVOA and the salary is solid. 

Cash – Monty, TBD with Fields

GPP – Mooney, D/ST, Kmet

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins will be starting this week and I expect him to play most, if not all of the game after Mike Zimmer was cold-blooded to Kellen Mond after the game last week. Cousins has had a decent fantasy year at 12th in points per game and he’s 13th in points per dropback. Cousins doesn’t throw interceptions and he is at 30 touchdowns, which is strong and it helps when he has one of the best five receivers in football. Chicago is 10th in DVOA against the pass and 18th in yards per attempt allowed so he’s a fine play, but the ceiling is always in question. 

RB – What an absolute flop from Dalvin Cook last week, going for just 4.3 DraftKings points on just 12 touches. Provided Cousins plays this week, it’s easy to shake that off as Cook is under $8,000 and you just don’t get that salary. Now, even if Cook is active there is a risk that he sits out early so I don’t think you can play him in cash. The matchup is sneaky good with Chicago ranking 23rd in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards per attempt. Cook is fifth in carries on the season and fourth in rushing yards while ranking fifth in red-zone touches. I’d love to have clarity before kickoff about how much he’s going to play but we’ll see what happens. 

WR – With Cousins back, Justin Jefferson is a much more appealing play. Chicago does have their secondary back intact and JJ has just been a monster this year. He’s fourth in receptions, second in yards, eighth in yards run per route, eighth in touchdowns, and fourth in points per game. That’s despite some quiet games and Jaylon Johnson is on the other side, but Johnson is up to 1.67 points per target and a 55.6% catch rate allowed. K.J. Osborn has been filling in for Adam Thielen and he’ll get to face off against Artie Burns for some of this game, who has a 13.6 YPR. On the year, Osborn has a 14.5% target share but in the past five games when Thielen has been mostly missing, it’s second on the team at 16.8%. 

TE – If Cousins is back as the starter, I’ll be a little less likely to look at Ty Conklin. Really, even with the backup he only went 5/47 so it wasn’t some massive game. He’s in the top 12 in yards and receptions but only 17th in points per game, so the appeal isn’t really there for Conklin this week. 

D/ST – Just like the defense on the other side of this game, Minnesota is a solid option. Matt Nagy’s offense is not that great and the Vikes are sixth in sacks on the season. He’s only played in 12 games but Fields has been sacked the ninth-most times so that is a really poor match with what the Vikings can do well. 

Cash – Cook, Jefferson

GPP – Osborn, D/ST, Cousins 

Titans at Texans, O/U of 42.5 (Titans -10)

Titans (Clinched Playoffs, Win gets the #1 Seed)

QB – I’m not sure I can do it with Ryan Tannehill anymore. Even with A.J. Brown back in the fold, he still hasn’t scored over 15 DK points in those two games. He’s only 16th in yards, 24th in yards per attempt, and 16th in both points per game and dropback. The only positive is this is a matchup against the Texans defense since they rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in yards per attempt allowed. I think if anything, I’d just get my exposure with Brown and/or the run game. 

RB – It appears that D’Onta Foreman’s one week of not getting the bulk of the carries was just that, a one-week deal. He was the alpha in the backfield this past week with 26 carries and if he gets that against the Houston Texans, Foreman is one of the better sub-$6,000 backs on the entire slate. Houston is down at 26th in DVOA against the run and no team has allowed more rushing yards to backs this season. Since Tennessee has the easiest path a first-round bye with a win, we should expect Foreman to get a ton of work and I’m in. 

WR – A.J. Brown is incredibly talented and should never have a game where he’s targeted five times but here we are. The game flow certainly didn’t help but my goodness. Get this man the football. You can’t play him in cash but he has an immense ceiling with a 44% air yards share (second among receivers) and has a 27.7% target share. The issue crops up when the Titans just run the ball to death and that is possible here. Desmond King is the likeliest opposition and he’s allowed a 65.6% catch rate and 1.52 points per target. The 13.6 YPR is appealing for Brown as well, just know the floor that comes with it. 

TE – Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser both caught touchdowns last week and neither scored over 11 DraftKings points. Considering a touchdown is seven on its own, that’s not a good sign and neither is a very strong target, even against Houston. They are both under 10% in target share and both have eight red-zone targets or fewer this year. 

D/ST – The Titans defense might not be filled with household names but they are a pretty strong unit with 41 sacks, 22 turnovers, sixth in points allowed, and ninth in total DVOA. The Texans offense doesn’t present a huge challenge and Tennessee needs to win for a vital bye week. Sign me up. 

Cash – Foreman, D/ST 

GPP – Brown 

Texans 

QB – Davis Mills has been solid from the real-life perspective, even in what was a tough spot for him last week. I think Fields has the much higher upside so I’m likely going there and Tennessee has come up to seventh in DVOA against the pass this year. He’s still just 26th in true completion rate and 30th in points per game, so Fields looks much better in this price range. 

RB – If there’s a more gross option than Rex Burkhead, I’m not sure what it is. I’m not looking to play him but the amount of touches he gets weekly now has to be at least noted. Since Week 11 when the Texans threw their weight behind them, Burkhead is seventh across the league in carries. I wouldn’t bank on six receptions again but Tennessee is 14th in DVOA against the run. They aren’t invincible and he’s at least in play, even if he’s not a spectacular option. 

WR – The only reliable receiver is Brandin Cooks, who has strung together three straight games of at least 21.1 DraftKings points. In those games, he has a 35% target share and an air yards share of 52.3%, and the chemistry between him and Mills has been flowing. Cooks has at least 10 targets in all three games and he could see more of Elijah Moldenif Janoris Jenkins is out. Golden has allowed a 12.2 YPR and a catch rate of almost 70% and the salary for Cooks is just silly. He’s one of the most underappreciated receivers in football. 

TE – The high-end position is a mess for the Texans with a mix of Brevin Jordan and Pharaoh Brown and the floor is zero. Even at a punt price, I can’t get there myself. 

D/ST – If you wanted to punt, I get it with Houston but that rushing defense is a huge issue here. They are 18th in total DVOA but 26th in points allowed. The thing with Houston is the lack of splash plays as they sit in the bottom 10 in sacks but they have forced 25 turnovers. The outcomes are pretty wide here. 

Cash – Cooks

GPP – Burkhead 

Steelers at Ravens, O/U of 41.5 (Ravens -4)

Steelers (Needs to Win and Help)

QB – Ben Roethlisberger tried his best to go out on his shield last week and he threw 46 times but generated under 170 yards passing. That is rough and Big Ben is 31st in yards per attempt this season along with 27th in deep completion rate, not exactly what I’m looking for to target this Baltimore secondary. They have been very poor due to injuries throughout the year and they are tied for the highest yards per attempt allowed in the past three weeks at 9.4 yards. I might have enough Pittsburgh homer in me to have a lineup for his last NFL game, but I wouldn’t recommend that. 

RB – I’m not sure we should chase Najee Harris after his best game of the season in a tough spot but the salary is not that expensive. The Ravens are sixth in DVOA against the run and have only allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to backs this season. On top of that, Baltimore also ranks third in yards allowed per attempt but Harris is second in carries on the year, first in routes, first in receptions, and fourth in both rushing and receiving yards. Harris is also fifth in points per game so he’s in play, especially with both teams needing to win and help to back into the playoffs. 

WR – Diontae Johnson could miss this game in protocols but he’s not been ruled out yet. He missed a game in Week 3 and when that happened, Chase Claypool and James Washington were the primary receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster left that game early so Claypool saw a whopping 15 targets and Harris saw 19 (!). Claypool at $5,100 would be a slam dunk cash play based on volume alone and then we can look at Washington as a deep flier and Ray-Ray McCloud has seen at least eight targets in three of the past four games. If Diontae is out, this passing game is wide open. 

Update – Diontae is active and corner Anthony Averett is out for Baltimore, a boost of the Pittsburgh receivers

TE – The salary may keep me away, but Pat Freiermuth gets to pick on this poor secondary and I’m interested. He saw another six targets last week and Big Ben still wants to throw the rock one last time. We’ve been picking on that secondary for a while and he’s fifth in touchdowns on the year. This is one of the best chances he’s had to find the paint lately. 

D/ST – I may not think they’re going to record nine sacks this week but I can still live with the play. They now lead the league in sacks which helps cover sitting in the bottom 12 in turnovers forced and points allowed this year. They have taken a step back, to be clear. The price is very fair for the element of risk they bring to the table and could be a strong pivot off a popular offense. 

Cash – Harris, Johnson

GPP – D/ST, Ben, Claypool, Freiermuth

Ravens (Need to Win and Help)

QB – I’d be happy to play either Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, as their running ability can give the Steelers issues. I don’t think we’ve ever got Jackson at $7,000 flat on any slate but he’s not practicing to start the week. Huntley struggled a little bit against the Rams but that’s to be expected. Pittsburgh’s pass rush destroyed the Browns last week but Huntley can get out of the pocket in ways that Baker cannot. We’ll see how the week shakes out with practice. 

RB – In the past few weeks, we’ve shied away from the running game for Baltimore in large part because the defense was struggling so badly, they were in negative game scripts. However, the Pittsburgh offense hasn’t shown any ability to run away in games and Devonta Freeman got another 15 touches last week when the Ravens almost upset the Rams. Unlike the Browns this past Monday night, Baltimore will use their run game when they can and Freeman already tagged the Steelers for 20+ DraftKings points this year. Since Week 9 of this year, Freeman also has a 9.3% target share in the offense. Even after Cleveland let them off the hook, Pittsburgh is still 31st in rushing yards allowed to backs, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 27th in DVOA against the run. It’s a strong matchup for Freeman at home and the salary is exceptional. 

WR – Marquise Brown could benefit from a possible Joe Haden absence and Brown is 11th in receptions and 20th in yards on the season. He’s also sixth in deep targets so if the offensive line can hold up, Brown can get behind this defense in a hurry and he’s seventh in unrealized air yards as well. There have been some ups and downs this year, explaining why he’s the 20th receiver in points per game but the salary leaves room for plenty of upside. Rashod Bateman goes back and forth between being targeted a lot and not at all. In the past four games, he’s had two with at least eight and two with five or fewer. That’s really hard to get a bead on but his aDOT of nine yards is the lowest in the offense. If the line is struggling with the Pittsburgh pass rush, that could funnel some targets his way. Ahkello Witherspoon has emerged in these past couple of weeks and it’s only 29 targets, but he’s only allowed 10 receptions for 0.89 points per target. 

TE – The TE1 is on the slate and Mark Andrews leads in yards, receptions, air yards, deep targets, touchdowns, points per game, targets, and target share. Any other questions? I wonder if paying up at tight end is different this week and Andrews is in play even against a tougher defense. He had plenty of chances in that first game and dropped a two-point conversion, which could have led him to have a big game. Pittsburgh has been solid against the position but we don’t sweat that with Andrews. 

D/ST – I just can’t pull the trigger with how bad they’ve been. They were gifted a touchdown last week on top of the interceptions, which were hideous. They’re still down at 28th in total DVOA and 20th in points allowed per game, let alone a pressure rate of barely 24%. Big Ben is inside the top 10 in sacks this year but this is tough to get behind when more talented defenses are cheaper. 

Cash – Andrews, Freeman, QB

GPP – Brown, Bateman

Bengals at Browns, O/U of 38 (Browns -6)

Bengals (TBD, #1 Seed is in play but Chiefs have to lose Saturday)

QB – Joe Burrow is sitting out this game so Brandon Allen will start and I can’t say I’m looking in that direction very much. He’s going to be down the starting running back and likely not able to throw to the main receivers. 

RB – Much like Burrow, I tend to think the outlook for Joe Mixon is cloudy and takes a big hit if Kansas City wins Saturday. If they lack any motivation to move their slot, they could just elect to get their starters time off. That could mean sitting outright or perhaps even just playing a half. As far as the matchup goes, the Browns just got smoked by the Steelers on Monday night and are down to 20th in DVOA against the run to go along with 12th in yards per attempt. This whole team is going to be a wait-and-see approach but if Mixon sits, we could at least consider Samaje Perine. I wouldn’t be in love because that would mean Allen would be at quarterback. 

Update – Perine is the man and he’s in play, potentially even chalky. 

WR – I will be very transparent here and say this whole corps is a complete pass for me as things stand. Ja’Marr Chase won us a ton of money last week but this week he could “potentially” play, which is code for there is zero chance he plays a full game. That’s also probably going to hold true for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd but we don’t know that. If those guys duck out early, Mike Thomas, Trenton Irwin, and Stanley Morgan have a combined 11 targets this season. With a backup QB and RB, I’m not that interested and it’s too risky. 

TE – C.J. Uzomah is in the Kmet category where he’ll like snag 3-4 passes and average his 30 yards per game, but that might be about all you get. The target share is 24th at 12.3% and he’s not in the top 15 in yards or receptions despite not missing a game this season. 

D/ST – We’ll see who all is planning on sitting but the salary is very appealing for a defense that ranks in the top 10 in sacks. They are just average in DVOA, points allowed, and takeaways but the Browns offense is not good past their running back and their slot receiver. 

Cash – Perine if we need it

GPP – None for me 

Browns 

QB – Case Keenum is plenty cheap but the upside is very questionable. He started Week 7 against the Broncos and threw it 33 times but only generated 199 yards and one score, resulting in under 13 DraftKings points. That won’t get it done on a full slate and the only plus is the Bengals are likely not playing all their starters the entire game. Cincinnati is just 24th against the pass in DVOA but they can get pressure on the quarterback as they sit top five in sacks on the season. That element might change a little bit, but Cleveland still has the same questionable cast of receiving options. 

RB – With Mayfield already ruled out, I do wonder if Nick Chubb gets the same treatment. According to Kevin Stefanski, Chubb had a rib injury Monday even though he had more carries in the second half and was never listed on the Browns injury report. I guess you say whatever you can think of instead of “it was a really stupid game plan” but I digress. If Chubb is out and Kareem Hunt is still out, that leaves D’Ernest Johnson as the lead back. That’s happened twice this season and both times he exceeded 22 DraftKings points and totaled 41 carries in those games. He would be a pretty strong option under $5,000 especially if his opposition has nothing to play for. 

WR – The Browns said Anthony Schwartz would get some extra chances in the offense but that was a total lie, as Cleveland has been wont to do lately. Donovan Peoples-Jones played 90% of the snaps which led the corps last week and he saw five targets to two for Schwartz with his normal 16.4-yard aDOT. Eli Apple would be on the other side for a lot and he’s allowed 13.3 YPR and a 577% catch rate. He’s going to be the GPP play here with Keenum but Jarvis Landry saw another 10 targets last week and he saw eight when Keenum started in Week 7. When he’s in the slot, Mike Hilton is going to be the opposition and he’s allowed a massive 72.6% catch rate. Of course, they may decide to sit the defensive guys as well through some of this game so the matchup could get better. 

TE – Harrison Bryant and David Njoku both caught a touchdown last week while Austin Hooper only went 2/28 and there’s always that risk with Cleveland. Bryant only has a 5.2% target share so he can be discarded while Hooper and Njoku are both over 11.3% on the year. That’s very average and when those two bite into each other, it’s not very appealing to go either. The only good news is their quarterback play really didn’t get much worse this week. 

D/ST – Cleveland is getting the luxury of facing a lot of backups this week and they rank 14th in total DVOA and 17th in points allowed per game. With the Bengals sitting out skill players, the salary is really nice and the biggest issue might be who’s left to play for the Cleveland side. They have been dealing with a lot of injuries so we’ll see what Friday brings us. 

Cash – Landry

GPP – Chubb, D/ST, Peoples-Jones

Panthers at Buccaneers, O/U of 41.5 (Buccaneers -8)

Panthers

QB – I for one will say that I was wrong about Sam Darnold. I thought getting away from Adam Gase would solve a myriad of issues but that hasn’t happened this season. He’s 28th in yards per attempt, 30th in true completion rate, 31st in deep completion rate, 27th in points per dropback, and 25th in points per game. Nothing is appealing in those numbers and the salary isn’t low enough for me to want to take a shot. 

RB – This is an unenviable spot on a normal week and the Panthers just faced the Bucs. It didn’t end well with both Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah ending under four DraftKings points and they continue to split work to some extent. Tampa has fallen to 12th in DVOA against the run which is the lowest they’ve been this season, but they also have allowed the fewest rushing yards to backs in football. While they do have a weakness in the receiving game (third-most receptions, sixth-most yards), neither of these backs fit that exact prototype. If we were starved for value, maybe you could swing at Abdullah but one aspect this slate will not be missing is value. 

WR – It looks like Robby Anderson could miss this game which would elevate Brandon Zylstra into the number two role, although I wouldn’t be running to play him. As the stone minimum, I would get it as a punt play if Anderson is out but D.J. Moore would be the star, even more than he already is. Moore is second in air yard share, 13th in yards and receptions, sixth in unrealized air yards, and just 24th in points per game. Sitting 84th in catchable targets is just heartbreaking for him but he could threaten 15 targets without Anderson this week. Carlton Davis has been targeted 56 times this year for Tampa and he’s allowed a 57.1% catch rate, but also a 14.6 YPR and 1.83 points per target. I’m not sure I could trust Darnold to get him the ball for cash, but I’m interested in GPP. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance in the Panthers offense. 

D/ST – We were reminded last week to not mess with defenses against the Bucs, even though Carolina is way better than the Jets. The only way this would change for me is if we know Tampa is sitting players, as the Panthers are 12th in total DVOA and have a pressure rate of 27.2%. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Moore

Buccaneers (Clinched NFC South)

QB – Do I think Tom Brady needs to throw for 400+ yards and three scores in this game? No, but I didn’t think that last week either. They could move around their seeding but the more important part for Tampa is just to get to the fence as healthy as possible. They already have lost multiple skill players and you can come back against the Jets in that scenario but the path is going to get harder. Brady has every metric we could want like leading in attempts, touchdowns, red-zone attempts, yards, and ranking third in points per dropback. I just question how motivated the Bucs are to leave him out there this week because if he gets injured, it’s all over for them. 

RB – This backfield is suddenly really disgusting. Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn check into the early week with injuries and questionable tags. If they would both be out, we might be down to Le’Veon Bell who played 35% of the snaps this past week. That being a good thing is debatable but the Bucs offense has so many check-downs built-in that he can get it done through the receiving game alone. I don’t think we need to go here and the Panthers do rank seventh in yards per attempt allowed and 17th in DVOA against the pass. Tampa would need o to be pretty thin to consider. 

Update – Jones is out so Vaughn would be my primary target here. I think Bell is treated more as the secondary option and when Vaughn came out of college, one of his better traits was supposed to be his pass-catching ability.

WR – I think we all know that Mike Evans is in play with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the offense. The Panthers have corner Stephon Gilmore on the Covid list so he could miss and Evans is back to full practice. I’m totally fine with him but a name to keep in mind is Cyril Grayson. He played almost 70% of the snaps last week and had eight targets for 81 yards and a score. That marked the second straight week he’s gone over 80 yards receiving and when Brady trusts you, that’s a fantastic sign. The only thing that could really derail Evans (and possibly Grayson) is playing time, so I’m not looking in this direction in cash, as it stands. 

TE – I’ve punted Cameron Brate for two straight weeks and will likely do so again in GPP lineups, but Rob Gronkowski is still in play as things stand. For Brate, you need him to score but he’s second in red-zone targets in the active lineup. Gronk is going to see plenty of work unless Tampa decides to just sit guys given their situation. Other than one game (against these Panthers), he’s had at least eight targets in every single game since he came back from Week 11. 

D/ST – Even on a slate with values, I’m not paying up for any defense at $4,000. Tampa should play well since they are 11th in total DVOA, tied for 10th in points per game, and are fourth in turnovers forced. 

Cash – None

GPP – Evans, Gronk, Grayson, Brady, Brate

Patriots at Dolphins, O/U of 39.5 (Patriots -6)

Patriots (Clinched a spot, alive for AFC East AND the #1 Seed)

QB – For just the second time all season last week, Mac Jones threw for more than two touchdowns and he surpassed 22 DraftKings points. Miami has righted the ship as far as defending the pass as they’re ninth in DVOA against the pass and eighth in yards allowed per attempt. It was grim earlier in the season but Jones has not consistently shown the upside we prefer with cheap quarterbacks. He’s just 24th in points per game and only has 21 touchdown passes with zero rushing upside. I’d rather take the chance on Fields at the salary. 

RB – We have to figure that the Patriots will give their best effort…to a point. Since they’ll be watching the scoreboard, every outcome is in play. Buffalo can beat the stuffing out of the Jets and make the game meaningless in the third quarter, so it could be dangerous to bank on the starters. Damien Harris has been dealing with a hamstring injury for weeks and he left early last week because of that and New England throttling the Jaguars, but that game script is in play again. He only had 10 touches compared to 19 for Rhamondre Stevenson and they both scored twice. Neither player is very cheap but there’s far less risk with Stevenson and Miami is 13th in DVOA against the run and 19th in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – Jakobi Meyers scored just his second touchdown last week and his price barely moved, making him interesting again. Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor are more secondary players in the offense after the run game and the tight end, so I’m not going after any of them that much. Meyers is still in the slot almost half the time and has a 24.2% target share with sitting 16th in receptions. Nik Needham has allowed a 67.4% catch rate this year with a 13.1 YPR s it’s nice to avoid Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. I’m not terribly concerned about Kristian Wilkerson scoring twice last week on eight targets since Agholor is out and that game was over very early. 

TE – We know exactly what Hunter Henry is this year and if he doesn’t score, you’re going to get very little in return. He’s not in the top 15 in yards or receptions and he’s only 14th in points per game but touchdowns solve everything. Henry co-leads the position and Miami has allowed six scores on the season. Henry is a player that you can throw into MME builds in case you get that massive outcome, but he’s not appealing past that format. 

D/ST – The Patriots are right in line with the other high-end defenses in that I expect a nice game out of them, but they are expensive. They are second in total DVOA, they are the only team that doesn’t allow over 17 points per game, and they are tied for second in turnovers forced. Miami’s offense is very limited in what they do so New England is in a strong spot. 

Cash – Meyers, TBD of the backs (not likely going here due to potential game script)

GPP – Jones, Henry, D/ST 

Dolphins

QB – I’m the Tua Tagovailoa guy on staff but this isn’t close to the spot for me. Regardless of how he played last week (poorly), playing the New England defense hasn’t worked for many players this year. They are third in DVOA against the pass, second in yards per attempt allowed, and second in completion rate allowed. Even then, they are half a percent from being first so this is a bad matchup all the way around. For his side of the equation, Tua is 21st in points per game and 17th in points per dropback. I’ll give him first in red-zone completion rate but that’s not enough to warrant the play here. 

RB – The Dolphins are in a full-blown committee with Duke Johnson leading the pack for the last three weeks. Myles Gaskin has taken a backseat (18 carries in the past three weeks) while Phillip Lindsay snipes a carry or two, making this situation largely unappealing. New England is seventh in DVOA against the pass and I can find little reason to chase a split backfield like this in a bad spot. 

WR – I’m not sure it will get much worse for Jaylen Waddle after last week when he scored under eight DraftKings points for the first time since Week 8. He’s still seventh in the league in receptions with 15 games played and he’s 13th in points per game. Waddle is 10th in targets and he’s out of the slot about 45% of the time, leaving him on Myles Bryant and his 71.4% catch rate across 35 targets. DeVante Parker is far less on my radar because he’s going to see plenty of J.C. Jackson, who is allowing just 1.33 points per target and a 79.6 passer rating. 

TE – I think I like Mike Gesicki more than the Dolphins coaching staff does, but the Patriots defense is a tough cookie. It’s not apples to apples but in Week 1, Gesicki put up a goose egg in this matchup and New England has been dominant against the position. They are the only team in the NFL to hold tight ends under 50 receptions (42) and 525 receiving yards (386). Regardless of the style of tight end they faced through 17 weeks, that’s still notable. While Gesicki is largely a glorified slot receiver (53.5% of his routes), this isn’t an ideal spot for him. The 18.7% target share is only ninth in the league and that’s not quite enough volume to get me to bite here. 

D/ST – Miami could be in punt consideration since they are seventh in turnovers forced, 10th in DVOA, and 16th in points per game. On top of that, they are tied for third in sacks as well, and even against a conservative offense, they can pay off the salary. After last week, many won’t be looking at them either. 

Cash – Waddle

GPP – D/ST 

Saints at Falcons, O/U of 39.5 (Saints -3.5)

Saints (Needs to Win and Help)

QB – It’s a great matchup as the Flacons defense has been bad all season long and Taysom Hill has major upside with his rushing ability. Even at this salary, he’s hit 4x in two of his four starts and would have been 3x last week. Atlanta is just 26th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in yards allowed per attempt while he is already sixth in red-zone carries and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Hill is one of the best players to show the separation between real life and fantasy but we’re playing fantasy. 

RB – If there’s a player that I’m strongly worried about, it’s Alvin Kamara. With the Saints needing the 49ers to lose, they could pull Kamara if the game gets out of hand out West. The good news for Kamara is two-fold. First, the 49ers take on the Rams so they have a very legitimate chance to lose. Secondly, the Atlanta run defense is 30th in DVOA, has allowed just over 2,200 scrimmage yards, and sits 18th in yards per attempt. Since the Saints have a chance to get in, Kamara should be in for a heavy workload and both the Rams and 49ers have to play hard as well. Kamara could be an outstanding GPP play this week. 

WR – Marquez Callaway showed some signs of life last week and he’s had flashes over the past three weeks but the bad news is the matchup here is not ideal at all. He’s facing A.J. Terrell who if he didn’t play for one of the league’s worst defenses would be recognized as a very good up-and-coming corner. Terrell is fourth in catch rate allowed at 43.1% and seventh in points per target at 1.09. It’s likely best to avoid this situation, although Lil’Jordan Humphrey or Deonte Harris could break a big play against far worse corners. 

TE – The Saints are back to not even looking at Adam Trautman, who didn’t have a single target last week and has just two since coming off the IR in Week 15. Juwan Johnson has also been a non-factor and has a target share under 6%, so there’s not much of a need to go here. 

D/ST – This would likely the be most expensive defense that I would play since they are under $3,500 and they have a lot of metrics that match the upper echelon. New Orleans is fourth in total DVOA, fourth in points allowed, and they’ve forced 22 turnovers on the season. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most sacks on the year as well. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Taysom, Kamara, D/ST 

Falcons 

QB – It’s funny to note that the last even usable game from Matt Ryan came against these Saints, but I’m not going to take that for any type of meaning. Ryan has been positively dreadful for fantasy for months now He’s 26th in points per game and points per dropback, not to mention 18th in yards per attempt. The Saints are fourth in DVOA against the pass and have been that way basically through the entire year, and Ryan may not have all his weapons on top of it. 

RB – The past month has seen a big shift in the Falcons backfield with Mike Davis only being 11 carries behind Cordarrelle Patterson in that span. Last week saw Davis getting more red-zone work last week at 4-3 and that’s really scary. On top of that, Patterson only has one more target than Davis over the past four games and the Saints defense is first in DVOA against the run while giving up the third-fewest rushing yards to backs. I’ll have no interest here. 

WR – Russell Gage could really be the last man standing in this offense due to injuries, and I’m not sure I want to go after him with other options in this salary range. Gage has been the go-to player in the passing game along with their tight end, but he’s not exactly a priority. He does run out of the slate about 40% of the time, which helps him avoid Marshon Lattimore and face more of P.J. Williams. That’s a much better spot as he’s allowed a catch rate of nearly 74% across just 23 targets. Still, this is a tough and motivated defense against an offense that has been dreadful. I do like other options much better. 

TE – I’m already excited to draft Kyle Pitts next year because he went for over 1,000 yards in his rookie year with only one score, and that latter part has to change. For this week, he may not even play because he left early last week with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice Wednesday. Much like they have been against many positions, the Saints have defended tight ends well. Pitts is still third in yards and sixth in target share, but we can’t possibly expect the Falcons to push him this week. 

Update – Pitts is questionable but did practice twice during the week

D/ST – It’s not a bad matchup but the Falcons have been terrible this year on defense. They’re 29th in DVOA, 29th in points allowed, and they only have 17 sacks. That’s the fewest in the league by nine. 

Cash – None

GPP – Pitts (if active), Gage

Jets at Bills, O/U of 41.5 (Bills -16)

Jets

QB – When he didn’t have a touchdown run of 50+ yards to prop up the score, Zach Wilson was just average again. He showed some good signs in real life and it’s fair to remember that he’s missing his top three receivers, but that’s not likely to change this year. Buffalo has to win this game so they will deploy their starting defense and that has ranked first in completion rate allowed, first in yards allowed per attempt, and second in DVOA against the pass. With Wilson ranking in the bottom few quarterbacks in all our metrics this year, I’ll pass. 

RB – We’ll need news on the status of Michael Carter before we can go too far in this spot after he was forced to leave early last week because of a concussion. He generated 63 scrimmage yards on just four touches and showed he has the explosive ability, which would be interesting at this salary. Buffalo continues to slide in DVOA against the run at 15th and they are 14th in yards per attempt. Carter is top 20 in target share on the season and when he’s been healthy, he has 15 carry upside as well. If he’s out, some might look at Ty Johnson but he only had five carries as opposed to 14 for Austin Walter. Johnson was more impactful in the scoresheet because he had the score and the passing work but Walter did have more red-zone touches. Let’s hope Carter is active so we don’t have to worry about this portion of the Jets backfield. 

WR – We need to see who’s even left to play as Braxton Berrios has missed Wednesday and Thursday practices, never a good sign. Jamison Crowder is limited and no other player is really around until we get to Keelan Cole. Now, Robert Salah seems to think Berrios will still play and he’ll be popular again after going nuts last week. He saw another 12 targets last week and is the only game in town n what is almost surely going to be a negative game script. Let’s circle back when we know who’s going to play. 

Update – Berrios is doubtful and Crowder practiced in full on Friday, so Crowder is the target if you want to go this route

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance for the Jets. 

D/ST – No. 

Cash – TBD

GPP – TBD, Carter

Bills (Clinched a spot, AFC East Title with a win)

QB – It’s not going to get any safer than Josh Allen on this slate for the quarterback position. He’s among the elite and deserves to be at this salary. The Jets are in the bottom five in about every metric we talk about while Allen is in the top five. This is a horrible mismatch and in the first game, Allen posted 24 DraftKings points with just two touchdowns. 

RB – It seemed to take a while but Devin Singletary got going last week and his price is still too low since the Bills have committed to him as their lead back. In the last three weeks, Singletary is seventh across the league in carries and he’s tied for the lead in red-zone carries. He’s still only $6,000, the Bills need to win, and the Jets are 26th in DVOA against the run, 29th in rushing yards allowed to backs, and 23rd in yards per attempt. This week is about finding value where it presents, but when we have good players in elite offenses with major roles, we shouldn’t ignore that when their game still matters. 

WR – It’ has been a somewhat disappointing year for Stefon Diggs but his best game of the season came against this team with 8/162/1 and I’m excited to play him again. This is one of the worst pass defenses in the league and Diggs is in a “down” year, he’s in the top 10 in yards, receptions, unrealized air yards, touchdowns, points per game, deep targets, and targets overall. He’s a few passes connecting away from having the season we expected. 

If he’s too expensive, Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley could be options to get a piece of this passing game provided Emmanuel Sanders is out. Davis played over 86% of the snaps last week and even though he only saw three targets, he’s flashed before in this spot and he has a higher upside than Beasley. I tend to want Diggs here but I do want something of this offense no matter what. There isn’t a corner the Jets have played all year that matters as far as the individual matchup. 

TE – Dawson Knox has fallen into being a more expensive version of Hunter Henry, in that you need a score to come close to paying the bills for him. He does co-lead the position with nine trips to the paint, but this is a crowded offense when they are mostly healthy. Knox is only 20th in targets and 22nd in target share while sitting just 19th in receptions. It’s tough to get looks behind everyone else so while the Jets have allowed the second-most yards and eight scores, the salary is a lot to pay. 

D/ST – They have some big upside as they have a 29% pressure rate and can force a lot of mistakes from Wilson, let alone being top five in DVOA and points allowed. There’s not any reason to not play them past the salary they sit at. 

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Singletary

GPP – Davis, Beasley, Knox, D/ST 

49ers at Rams, O/U of 44.5 (Rams -4.5)

49ers (In With a Win or Tie)

QB – Let’s circle back when we know the starter but Trey Lance was a holding call from going totally nuclear last week. He had a rushing touchdown wiped out and that would have put him over 25 DraftKings points, and it’s not like 20.1 was a bad thing. The matchup gets far more difficult here though. The Rams are fifth in DVOA against the pass and they are much more stout against the run. It was nice to hear his coach say he improved as the game went on last week (shocking that playing time helps). He’s still cheap enough to be interested but this is not the smash spot that it was last week, to be sure. 

RB – Well, we know that when Eli Mitchell is active he’s going to be the lead back after he logged another 23 touches after missing multiple games. He got a cupcake matchup last week but the sledding gets tougher this week against the Rams. They rank in the top-five in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt but it is fair to note that Mitchell ran for 91 hard-earned yards in the first meeting. At the exact same price, I’d rather Singletary but they both have upside and meat on the bone at the salary. 

WR – We’re still learning who’s going to thrive with Lance under center and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both saw six targets last week, with Deebo tacking on seven carries. Deebo could also see a little more of Jalen Ramsey who is still at 1.26 points per target and just 9.7 YPR. Deebo has been a monster and is in the top five in receiving yards so I wouldn’t take him off the table in GPP, but I would want Jefferson or Diggs ahead of him. For Aiyuk, he sees more of Darious Williams who is at 1.39 points per target allowed as well. With an inexperienced quarterback potentially under center, it’s not my favorite group of receivers to target. 

TE – The worst fears for George Kittle playing with Lance came to fruition last week as he was only targeted twice. If Lance starts again, you can always hope for improvement and even within the start, Lance looked progressively more comfortable. It’s almost like playing time helps, and he hasn’t played much football in the past 18 months. Anyway, it’s very uncomfortable to sink this amount of salary into a player that has this level of floor with a new quarterback. Let’s see who starts and circle back. 

D/ST – With the state of their secondary, I’m not interested even though they are eighth in total DVOA and 14th in points allowed. Additionally, they are tied for seventh in sacks but only have a pressure rate of 23.3%. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Lance, Mitchell, Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, D/ST 

Rams (Clinched a Spot, Win locks the NFC West)

QB – Not only do the Rams need to win, but Matthew Stafford needs to stop throwing picks all over the place. He’s thrown six in the past three games and there have been a couple that has been really ugly. He’s actually thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in the past three games so he needs to get some mojo going. San Francisco is only 18th in DVOA against the pass and they currently have nine players in the secondary that are listed as out or on the IR. Stafford is still third in yards per attempt and ninth in deep completion rate, so there should be plenty of chances this week. 

RB – It is possible that the Rams use Cam Akers in the backfield this week but it would be a surprise to see him take any major role. Sony Michel has been the man in the backfield and that should continue this week again, even if it’s not going to be the 22 touches he had last week. Darrell Henderson has been basically out of action since Week 13 with just seven carries combined and Michel is tied with Jonathan Taylor for the league lead with 108 carries. That volume may not stick but in this offense, he’s at least interesting. San Francisco is all the way up to second in DVOA against the run and eighth in yards per attempt. 

WR – All the Cooper Kupp. He needs 12 receptions and 136 yards to break the record (and 171 to hit 2,000) so all of it is in play. Now, to his credit, Kupp has downplayed it and said it’s not the same since he gets an extra game to attain these thresholds but once that game starts, all that is out the window. They also want to win the division to get a home game and one of the best ways to do that this year has been Kupp. On top of him being the lead receiver in about every metric, the 49ers secondary had been destroyed by injuries with nine players out or on the IR and two more questionable. That could make for GPP pivots in Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson but OBJ is starting to get up there. He’s scored five touchdowns since joining the Rams but is still yet to exceed 40 receiving yards in all but two games. He has taken the lead in targets, red zone and end zone looks, and receptions as well so he does get the lean here. 

TE – With the fact the Kupp is chasing history, Tyler Higbee may not see the ball all that much this week. That’s what the narrative would tell you but the reality is Higbee saw nine targets last week, the second-most he’s seen in a game this year. With the loss of Words from the receiving corps, Higbee has actually been a virtual tie for the third-most targets with OBJ and Jefferson since Week 10. Where he’s been lagging behind is the red zone, with just three looks but the salary can be paid off with just receptions and yards. He’s a perfectly fine play at this point, even if the upside isn’t spectacular. 

D/ST – They are an intriguing play at the salary, especially if Lance winds up starting. He can still make mistakes against an experienced unit like LA and they rank fifth in total DVOA and have the second-most sacks in the league. At $3,100, they likely aren’t expensive enough. 

Cash – Kupp, Stafford, Michel, D/ST 

GPP – OBJ, Higbee, Jefferson 

Seahawks at Cardinals, O/U of 48 (Cardinals -7)

Seahawks

QB – I was too hesitant on the Seahawks last week and may have missed my chance to play Russell Wilson. His salary is still solid at just $6,300 but he’s not facing Detroit this week as Arizona is sixth in DVOA against the pass and 11th in yards per attempt allowed. Wilson missed time but he is still seventh in deep attempts on the season, seventh in yards per attempt, and eighth in points per dropback. He’s probably been better than I’ve been giving him credit for and he’s in play, especially in GPP. 

RB – I still have a lot of regret from last week for not playing Rashaad Penny in one of the best spots on the slate, but we move forward. I’d have to believe he’s going to be given plenty of work again this week after 25 carries and two receptions last week en route to 185 scrimmage yards and 35+ DraftKings points. He’s eclipsed 130 rushing yards in three of the past four games but it should be noted that those three games came against much weaker opponents. The matchup gets tougher this week all around, although the Cardinals run defense has shown some cracks. They sit 21st in yards per carry allowed but have only faced the 13th fewest carries on the season. Salary may not be a huge issue overall this week but he does feel a bit pricey given the most recent results. 25 carries would be one thing but it’s the first time he’s gone over 17 in this run of success. 

WR – I’m on the fence about D.K. Metcalf because it really feels like chasing after not exceeding 12 points since Week 8 against Jacksonville. That’s a long time and he’s probably not scoring three times again, which sort of obscured the fact 6/63 is not all that great. He’s been so difficult to figure out this year while sitting outside the top 20 in receptions, yards, points per game, and yards run per route. It’s nice that he’s found the paint 12 times which is fourth and the matchup looks very solid. Antonio Hamilton has been pushed into a bigger role lately and in 20 targets, he’s allowed 1.42 points per target. He’s also under 190 pounds and is just six feet tall, a physical mismatch to be sure. Tyler Lockett has the tougher route based on the statistics this year as he faces Byron Murphy. He’s only allowed 12.3 YPR and a 103.3 passer rating across 75 targets, which is not that bad. Lockett is 10th in air yards share and 12th in yards, so the upside is still there but it has been very difficult to get them right this season. 

TE – I just don’t mess with Gerald Everett and that’s never really been an issue. He only saw five targets last week and is 15th in target share on the season, while ranking under 15th in yards and receptions. With him sitting just 18th in points per game and having just four touchdowns, I’m not chomping at the bit to play him and would rather just go to Higbee for $300 more. 

D/ST – I can’t get behind the 25th ranked DVOA even though they rank 10th in points per game. They are one of only five teams to not hit 30 sacks yet and they have just 17 turnovers forced on the year. 

Cash – None 

GPP – DK, Penny, Lockett, Russ 

Cardinals (Clinched a spot, Wins NFC West with a Win and Help)

QB – Kyler Murray was one missed throw from having a monster game last week when he short-armed a would-be touchdown pass to A.J. Green, but he still went for 22.9 DraftKings points. Kyler is another player that missed some time but he’s still fourth in yards per attempt and leads in deep completion at 51.5%, he’s third in points per dropback, and fourth in points per game. Seattle’s defense is all the way down to 27th in DVOA against the pass and they let Tim Boyle score 18 DK points against them last week. Kyler is one of the only quarterbacks that are going to be expensive this week with a high ceiling. 

RB – With Arizona being at the mercy of the Rams game, the backfield is going to be dicey as far as playing time. The hope would be that the Rams game goes down to the wire and the Cards have to keep going. The practice reports are going to be important because James Conner has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and has had one limited practice since his injury. Chase Edmonds has taken over 34 carries and 13 receptions in the past two games, scoring at least 13.2 DraftKings points in each. If he were to have this backfield to himself (it would make a lot of sense to sit Conner for the postseason), Edmonds could shatter this salary. While Seattle does rank eighth in DVOA against the run, no team has allowed more receptions to running backs than Seattle at 116 and they are the only team above 900 yards receiving allowed (1,038). Edmonds has the ninth-highest target share among backs at 13.4% and that was with DeAndre Hopkins playing most of the season. 

Update – Edmonds is out, leaving Conner as the lone man in the backfield

WR – Christian Kirk is still the man in the corps, although A.J. Green has been involved as well. Kirk has 30 targets in the past three games for a 24.2% target share and he leads in air yards share at 33.3%. The salary is super appealing and we did just see St. Brown rip this team apart, which helps make Kirk even more interesting at this salary. Ugo Amadi patrols the slot for a chunk of the Seattle snaps and he’s allowed a catch rate nearing 68%. 

Green has 17 targets over the past three games and draws D.J. Reed in coverage who is at 1.47 fantasy points per target. I’m torn because I sort of want to play Antoine Wesley again as he has the same amount of targets in the last three games and he leads the team in red zone and end zone targets. That’s a big deal at $4,100 although I’ll be the first to say it does feel like you’re pressing your luck because he’s not doing a whole lot else. Those targets are so valuable though it’s hard to not consider. 

Update – Moore is out so Wesley is still in play

TE – Zach Ertz continues to get a boatload of targets without Hopkins in the offense and has totaled 33 targets in the past three games. That’s now edged out Kirk for the team lead in that span and he’s second behind Wesley in red-zone looks. Ertz has yet to drop below 11.1 DraftKings points in those three games and that’s been without the benefit of scoring a touchdown. The salary doesn’t represent the true upside that he as so I’m likely going to land here when I’m in this range. Seattle has given up nine touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league and Ertz has a shot at the paint this week. 

D/ST – The salary makes plenty of sense and they have 40 sacks with a 25.5% pressure rate. They’re in the top 10 in turnovers forced and fifth in points allowed per game, so even though the Seattle offense exploded last week, Arizona is very cheap. 

Cash – Kyler, Kirk, Ertz, D/ST 

GPP – Wesley, Green, TBD on the backs 

Cash Core

Cooper Kupp, D’Onta Foreman, James Conner, Christian Kirk

Stay tuned in Discord for updates in case we get surprise inactive at 11:30

GPP Core

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Devonta Freeman

Stacks

Seahawks/Cardinals

49ers/Rams

Titans/Texans

Bills

Bucs

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15

We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and that means we’re starting to have games played on Saturday in addition to the normal Sunday slate. Both days will be included although at first glance it does look like the Saturday slate could be a challenge for salary. Let’s talk about Saturday, Sunday, and everything in between in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15 to find our paths to green screens!

Saturday Slate 

Raiders 

QB – We are pretty sure at least one quarterback in this game is going to be active, although it’s been a tough road for Derek Carr lately. He’s been under 13 DraftKings points in three of the past four games and the lack of a reliable deep threat has very much hindered him. He hasn’t exceeded 270 yards but twice since Week 9 and he has just 18 touchdowns, 14th in the league. The volume is there for him with the fourth-most attempts but he’s 28th in points per dropback, a very low mark. With him being the most expensive option on the slate and Cleveland ranking 12th in yards per attempt allowed and 20th in DVOA against the pass, he’s not a strong option for me. This could change if the Browns lose anyone defensively due to Covid protocols. 

RB – We liked Josh Jacobs last week and that did not go well in the least. He fumbled the first time he touched the ball and the Chiefs scored and it went straight downhill from there. The slightly positive news is he saw another six targets and he’s getting the volume that makes him worthy of the salary here. He touched the ball another 14 times last week and if the game had stayed closer, things could have been different. That’s four straight games that Jacobs has at least 14 touches and he has at least five receptions in four of the past five games. Cleveland has been a solid defense against backs as far as rushing yards allowed at the 13th fewest and 10th in yards allowed per attempt. The Raiders are were six-point underdogs. That changes the script for Jacobs and his surprising volume in the passing game keeps him on the board. It’s the other two main backs on the slate that makes it difficult to roster Jacobs.

WR – The star of the receiving corps right now is Hunter Renfrow and he’s been smashing lately without Darren Waller. He’s seen 33 targets in the past three games and has cleared 100 yards in each game as well to score 22.2 DraftKings or more. With Browns corner Denzel Ward only being in the slot 8.5% this year, they shouldn’t face each other nearly enough for me to worry about. Really, Ward has been just average this year by his standards as well with 1.60 fantasy points per target. On this slate, Renfrow has to be the favorite to see the most targets and he deserves this salary. 

If we’re looking for a cheap option Zay Jones could be that man. In the past three weeks, he’s been tied for second in targets in the Raiders offense with 19. That’s not exactly spectacular, but he’s only $3,600 and if want the high-salaried running backs, something has to give. Jones has an aDOT of 12 yards and he has the most end zone targets with three. 

TE – It doesn’t appear that Darren Waller is all that close to playing, and if he can’t make it back I’m not looking at Foster Moreau all that much. He’s done very little in the two starts without Waller and sub-8 DraftKings points would hurt on such a short slate. If Waller is back, that Changs things significantly. 

D/ST – The Raiders may be popular as the Browns are under siege with Covid. They have multiple offensive starters on the list right now and Vegas is as cheap as the field can go. However, Vegas is 25th in DVOA, they have just 13 turnovers forced, and just 29 sacks. They also allow over 26 points per game so they’re not a great play, but there are only four choices here. 

Targets – Renfrow, Jacobs, Carr, Jones, D/ST (likely chalk pending Covid issues for Cleveland)

Browns 

QB – Well, the Browns are a disaster coming into this game. They have a ton of players in protocols, and they also will be without coach Kevin Stefanski. We’re not even sure if Baker Mayfield or Case Keenum will start this game yet, so that’s fun. Vegas is down to 25th in DVOA and 11th in yards per attempt allowed so it’s a solid matchup, but the question remains if Mayfield or Keenum could take advantage or if the game plan would even allow it. Baker is 24h in attempts, 23rd in yards, 25th in points per dropback, and 26th in points per game. Whoever starts could be down their number one receiver and all their tight ends as well, so I will likely not go here either for my quarterback. 

Update – The Browns could be down to Nick Mullen at quarterback this week.

RB – Kareem Hunt appears to not be likely to play this week and that means Nick Chubb should be in for all the work he can handle. The Browns are home favorites against a run defense that has gotten gashed this season. They’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to backs and rank just 18th in yards per carry allowed, and Chubb should have plenty of chances. He did get 17 carries this past week but Baltimore is still a good run defense where Vegas is not and the Browns are suddenly alive for the playoffs. I wouldn’t bank on Chubb getting three receptions again but he may not need them to pay off the salary. Vegas has also allowed the ninth-most receptions and D’Ernest Johnson should have a role with Hunt out. It may only be 6-8 touches but he should play about 35% of the snaps if he takes the Hunt role. On such a short slate, he’s absolutely in play and could poach a red-zone score on top of everything else. 

Update – Cleveland is currently missing two linemen which would downgrade the run game a little bit. 

WR – This is being written on Thursday, so expect an update. As we stand, Jarvis Landry is out in protocols. That could leave the Browns with just Donovan Peoples-Jones and likely Rashard Higgins would be forced into action. He was active last week for the first time since Week 11 but did not see a target. We’ll need clarity on who can play and who can’t so the matchups will be updated when they can. 

TE – Cleveland may not even be sure if they’ll have a tight end for this game, with Austin Hooper and Davin Njoku in protocols. Harrison Bryant was limited in the first practice of the week but we’ll need to check back on Friday to see what’s happening. It’s a strong spot too because the Raiders are 28th in receptions allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, and 30th in touchdowns allowed. Depending on who they have, we could see a very chalky situation. 

D/ST – The easiest path is to just end $100 for the Browns unit, which has a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett. They’re just 15th in total DVOA with ranking 14th in points allowed. Cleveland is in the top 10 in sacks and the Raiders are 24th in sacks allowed this season. It’s a good mix for Cleveland to put up the best score on the slate.

Targets – TBD

Patriots 

QB – I’m very likely to roll with Mac Jones in part due to the salary and in part because I expect the Patriots to attack the weak point of the Colts defense, which is against the pass. They are 17th in DVOA and yards per attempt allowed, which sets up Jones for a strong point per dollar game. I feel pretty comfortable saying he’s going to throw more than three passes this week and he flashed some upside in Week 12, carving up the Titans for 310 yards and two scores. Indy allows a completion rate over 65% and while Jones is 12th in yards per attempt, he’s fourth in true completion rate. He has mostly been a game manager this season but the Patriots are making a push for the number one seed in the AFC. The game is in a dome and Jones should throw around 30 times, making him the option of choice in my eyes. 

RB – After the Patriots bludgeoned the Bills on Monday night two weeks ago, the running backs may be of particular interest. We’re going to need to see if Damien Harris is ready to come back after injuring his hamstring in the last game. If not Rhamondre Stevenson would be in line for another massive workload, although I’d stop short of calling for 24 carries again. It may surprise folks but Indy is actually 25th in yards allowed per attempt this season despite ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed and in DVOA. We know that Bill Belichick will attack what he thinks the weakness is relentlessly. Let’s see how the practice reports unfold before going here. 

Update – Stevenson is going to be the main player in the backfield as Harris is out and J.J. Taylor is still on the Covid list. That leaves just Stevenson and Brandon Bolden to carry the load and Stevenson is an excellent play.

WR – If we’re rolling with Jones at quarterback, it would make sense to find someone to play him with and both Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are options. Meyers is my slight lean as he has the target share lead on New England at 23.4%. He still does have just one touchdown but with PPR settings, he’s a strong shot at 3x return for his salary. Kenny Moore would face Meyers in the slot and he’s allowed a 64.2% catch rate and 9.8 yards per target. Bourne on the other hand is only playing about 50% of the snaps but he’s second on the team in receptions and leads in yards. When he’s on the field, Xavier Rhodes is likely to be on the other side with a 114.5 passer rating and 13.5 yards per reception. 

TE – Hunter Henry might be tough to squeeze in on this slate and it’s not like he’s any sure thing. When he’s not scoring touchdowns, Henry is 22nd in receptions and 21st in yards. He’s second in touchdowns, which has been the vast majority of his fantasy relevance. The Colts have been ripped up by the position as they’ve surrendered six scores and are 31st in receptions and yards allowed. Henry is only 15th in points per game and 22nd in target share, but he is certainly stackable with Jones. 

D/ST – I’ll never tell you no on a Belichick defense and they are second in total DVOA. They now lead the league in points given up per game and are the only team under 16 points at 15.4. The pressure rate is nearly 27% and they are tied for third in turnovers forced. Indy is just 24th in sacks allowed but the Patriots are a very strong unit. 

Targets – Jones, Meyers, Henry, Bourne

Colts 

QB – It is a little tougher to build the case for playing Carson Wentz. He’s facing the defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass, second in completion rate allowed at 58.6%, and second in yards allowed per attempt. Only two teams have allowed fewer yards and New England is one of two teams that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The metrics for Wentz look pedestrian as well as he’s 21st in yards per attempt, 15th in yards, 13th in attempts, and 17th in points per dropback. The only path to success is if the Patriots load up to stop the run (that’s expected) and Wentz can make them pay on the back end. That part seems way more sketchy and I’ll just play Jones even though I fully expect him to be chalky. 

RB – Do we need to talk about Jonathan Taylor at this point? Fading him on a two-game slate is one of the most terrifying things to think about as he’s just four carries behind the league lead and he leads in red-zone attempts by thirty attempts. Taylor leads in attempts inside the five-yard line by 10, so it’s no exaggeration to say he has the highest upside on the entire slate. It would be tough to recover from a 30+ DraftKings points effort from Taylor. New England is just 19th in yards allowed per attempt and they’ve given up the 11th most rushing yards. The only reason they look strong in fantasy is they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns this year, which is the least in football. That’s going to get put to the test this week and it’s hard to bet against Taylor, even if New England sells out to stop him. 

WR – The only reliable receiver in the Colts offense this season has been Michael Pittman but I’m not sure he needs to be a priority on this slate. It’s interesting because He could very well have some opportunities in man coverage because the Patriots are likely trying to stop the run. The good news for him is if the alignments hold up, Pittman would line up against Jalen Mills and not J.C. Jackson. Pittman is 15th in receptions, 16th in yards, and 16th in targets. Mills has allowed a catch rate over 60%. Jackson is only at 1.36 fantasy points per target so the matchup really does help. If we get a punt somewhere, fitting Chubb, Taylor, Pittman, and Renfrow may not be impossible. 

TE – This is not a great spot for Jack Doyle and past the one week we did like him as a punt, he’s done almost nothing on a week-to-week basis. He only has 40 total targets in the year and his 9.8% target share is 31st, to go along with ranking 25th or lower in yards and receptions. This is not the spot to get different as New England is first in receptions and yards allowed with only three scores. 

D/ST – The Colts lead the league in turnovers forced and sit ninth in points allowed to go along with ninth in DVOA. What’s really interesting is they are so much better against the run. New England has long morphed into a team that attacks the weakness of the other team with a bulldog mentality, so if they let Jones chuck the ball, Indy may not pay off. They also could pick him off multiple times and potentially score, so there is a big risk/reward ratio. 

Targets – Taylor, Pittman, Wentz, D/ST 

Sunday Slate

Cowboys at Giants, O/U of 44.5 (Cowboys -11.5)

Cowboys

QB – Dak Prescott has hit a major lull in his season, with three games in his last four under 12.5 DraftKings points. He’s had some cupcake matchups as well which is even more disconcerting. On the season, Dak is down to 14th in yards per attempt, ninth in yards, and 18th in points per dropback. He’s barely on the inside of the top 12 in points per game on top of that. Maybe the chemistry isn’t quite there so far since he’s only had all three receivers for a handful of snaps. The Giants have been mostly strong against the pass at 10th in DVOA and yards per attempt while allowing a 67% completion rate. I’m not likely to play Prescott in cash but we also know his ceiling and the salary is very reasonable for GPP. 

Update – Tackle Tyron Smith is out for this game, which never helps the offense but it’s not the worst-case scenario against the Giants.

RB – I will continue to fade Ezekiel Elliott because the salary isn’t going down enough and we’re now at eight weeks for Zeke not crossing 69 rushing yards. That is really poor from a back that is over $7,000. Theories abound as to if Elliott is hurt or not and even if he is, that doesn’t matter much when the production is this low for the salary. You have to see him and the paint twice to pay off the price tag and that’s always possible, but not what you want to bet on. The catch is it truly is a strong matchup as the Giants are 24th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 20th in yards per carry. I may take a GPP shot at Tony Pollard if he’s healthy since he’s far more explosive at this stage of the season but we’ll see what the practice reports give us. 

WR – For the absolute life of me, I cannot understand why Dallas willingly took CeeDee Lamb off the field for 33% of the snaps last week. He led the team in targets with 10 on the fewest snaps of the main three receivers. That’s just absurd but if that trend were to continue, we need to be careful since he’s the most expensive of the bunch. The matchup against Logan Ryan in the slot is not going to be an issue for Lamb as Ryan has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 115.6 passer rating. Dallas just needs to leave him on the field. 

Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper both have strong matchups as well and Cooper draws James Bradberry while Gallup draws Aaron Robinson. Bradberry is at 1.90 fantasy points per target and Robinson has only been targeted 20 times in a part-time role. The potential is sky-high for everyone here. They all saw at least seven targets last week and everyone saw one red-zone target. Gallup could turn into an elite GPP option while Cooper is the cash game option. Lamb is cash viable, but that snap rate is really bothersome. 

TE – The Dallas passing game wasn’t great overall but it was not a promising day for Dalton Schultz. with the receivers all healthy and active for the first time since Week 1, Schultz saw just three targets. That is not ideal for a player that is costing nearly $5,000 on DraftKings and it was only a 7.7% target share. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most receptions to the position on the year and Schultz is sixth in receptions and ninth in yards among tight ends. You just have to wonder if the season-long target share of 15.6% is about to take a nosedive in a healthy Cowboys offense. 

D/ST – We were reminded last week that the Cowboys can easily put up a giant score defensively and they just wreak havoc, especially with DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory back for the pass rush. They have the second-most turnovers forced and the third-highest pressure rate in the league. With the Giants flawed offense on the other side, the potential for Dallas is sky high, at least for defense. 

Cash – Cooper, D/ST, Lamb (not preferred) 

GPP – Gallup, Dak, Schultz, Zeke

Giants 

QB – While Mike Glennon paid off last week, he did it in such an odd way that I’m not all that interested. He’s likely not going to rush for a touchdown and throw for another deep in garbage time again and that accounted for over half his production. Over the course of 105 attempts, he’s got just a 53.3% completion rate with an 18.2% completion rate on deep attempts. The points per dropback would rank in the bottom five and Dallas is first in DVOA against the pass. They now have their defensive front intact and Glennon is in for a long day. 

RB – The Dallas defense is 12th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 24th in yards per attempt so it may not be the worst matchup, but it’s hard to believe in the Giants offense overall. They’ve generated just 30 points in the past two weeks with Glennon at the helm and Saquon Barkley checks in as a fine option but nothing that is a priority. He does have 17 and 19 touches with Glennon at quarterback so that’s not a concern but the only thing that saved his fantasy day on Sunday was a touchdown deep in garbage time. It was surprising to even see him on the field at that point. The 18 DraftKings points this past week was only the third time he’s cleared that mark and you want 20 DraftKings points from a back at this salary. Saquon can break big runs but the case is hard to make outside deeper GPP. 

WR – As long as Glennon is under center, I’ll not be interested in the Giants receivers. If anyone, Sterling Shepard would have the best matchup out of the slot. He’d face Jourdan Lewis who has allowed a 63.5% completion rate and 113.1 for the passer rating. Shepard played over 80% of the snaps in his first game since Week 8, a positive sign. If you wanted to get really wild, Kenny Golladay saw eight targets last week and his aDOT was 16.0 yards. In a matchup with Trevon Diggs, it would only take one pass for Golladay to pay off. Diggs has one of the highest burn rates in football and while the quality of pass (and receiver, frankly) is strongly in question….just one play makes all the difference. 

TE – Evan Engram continues to be barely relevant in the Giants offense and with Shepard back last week, he got all of four targets. He’s below 15th in receptions, yards, target share, yards per route, yards per reception, and points per game. That’s an easy pass for me. 

D/ST – Dallas might be playing poorly lately but the Giants are 18th in DVOA and 21st in points allowed per game. They are also 31st in pressure rate with 19 turnovers forced but the potential for negative points is too high. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Shepard, Barkley, Golladay 

Texans at Jaguars, O/U of 39.5 (Jaguars -4.5)

Texans

QB – I don’t want to overstate the interest, but I think Davis Mills is actually somewhat in play in MME formats. He’s far from a consistent player but he’s also flashed some upside and five of his eight interceptions came in his first three games. His metrics don’t look great with ranking 31st in yards per attempt, 35th in points per dropback, and just 23rd in true completion rate. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and his metrics are average to poor because he’s been truly putrid in some starts. He has games of 24 and 27 DraftKings points against the Rams and Patriots. He has a shot at 3.5-4x at this salary, even if you may not want to watch if he can get there. 

RB – If we’re talking gross punts, Royce Freeman could theoretically enter the discussion IF and only IF David Johnson and Rex Burkhead were out. Burkhead was forced out of the game last week at only 44% of the snaps and no other back but Freeman took another snap. Mills was more than content to check down to Freeman, targeting him eight times on top of his 11 carries. It also would help that it’s Jacksonville on the other side and even though they’re allowing the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, they have faced the fifth-most attempts this season. If both Johnson and Burkhead are active, I’d want nothing to do with this backfield. 

Update – Johnson is back and is the lead back according to the coaches, making the backfield a no-fly zone for me. We have other cheap options that make much more sense. 

WR – The duo of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins is definitely in my sights again this week. Cooks proved he can function with literally any quarterback last week, scoring 21 DraftKings points while Collins saw 10 targets. The Texans may not pass as much as they did last week but they both had over a 20.5% target share. That’s interesting but Collins would draw the tougher assignment and Shaquill Griffin has allowed 1.47 fantasy points per target. Cooks still is sixth in air yards share, 11th in receptions, and 11th in targets. If he draws more of Nevin Lawson in coverage, that’s going to be a big win for Cooks since Lawson has allowed a 123.1 passer rating and 1.99 fantasy points per target. Cooks being under $6,000 on DraftKings is extremely appealing while Collins is an MME style punt. 

TE – I’m still going to be tempted by Brevin Jordan this week. He only played 29 snaps last week but Mills targeted him seven times and the quarterback change makes that potentially more real. Jordan and Mills could just have better chemistry together and that would make sense since they have plenty of practice reps together. Jacksonville is in the bottom half of the league in receptions and yards allowed so in lineups that I’m looking for a punt tight end, Jordan fits the bill. 

D/ST – We just watched the Jaguars rack up four turnovers last week and Houston may turn into one of the most popular options on the slate. They have the seventh-most takeaways in the league and the jags are tied for dead last in giveaways, let alone giving up 25 sacks so far. There’s just a ton of potential here, although that lowers with the firing of Urban Meyer for Jacksonville. 

Cash – Cooks 

GPP – Collins, Mills, Jordan, D/ST 

Jaguars 

Update – Everything here was written ahead of Meyer getting axed, and thank goodness for that. I’m extremely high on Robinson now, and the passing game is much more interesting as well. 

QB – Just like Mills, this spot for Trevor Lawrence could wind up being good but I don’t know where you find the trust to actually play him. He’s 35th in yards per attempt, 34th in true completion rate, 34th in points per dropback, and lead in passes that could have been intercepted. Houston’s pass defense is better than you may think at eighth in DVOA and they are just 16th in completion rate allowed. There is almost nothing good to point to with Lawrence. The only positive is his best game was in Week 1 when they played these Texans with 25 DraftKings points. Given everything going on with Jacksonville, I think I may rather play Mills. 

RB – James Robinson played 63.6% of the snaps and that’s where the good news stops. He touched the ball six times and did not record a target. This is one of the better spots in the league as Houston is dead last in rushing yards allowed by over 100 yards and they’re 30th in yards per attempt. If the Jaguars coaching staff had even the slightest clue, J-Rob would be in line for 16+ attempts and in a smash spot. As it stands, you can’t play him in anything but GPP after he has just 14 carries combined in the past two weeks. It’s really a shame because Robinson is still somehow 11th in rushing yards despite being just 20th in carries. 

Update – Carlos Hyde is out, just amplifying the appeal of Robinson

WR – Both Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault are interesting but I’m not sure how far I’d go here. I might work one of them into 3-max entries. Jones has had a solid game last week with seven targets and 13 DraftKings points and he does still lead the team in target share, albeit at 19.2%. He’ll be more on the boundary so he’d see Terrance Mitchell at corner who has allowed a 126.2 passer rating and a massive 2.16 fantasy point per target. Shenault should continue to be in the slot about half the time and that means Desmond King who’s allowed a 74% catch rate. One of these two feels like they have a big game and I’m leaning towards Jones, but I’m not playing either in cash unless the field demands it. 

TE – James O’Shaughnessy continues to see targets funnel to him with another six last week. Since he came back in Week 12, O’Shaughnessy has a target share of 16% but hasn’t done much with it for just 9/63. He’s yet to see a red zone or end zone target since then either, so he’s technically a punt option but I think I may actually rather go with Jordan. 

D/ST – Houston is far from a good offense but Jacksonville is 29th in total DVOA, fifth-worst in sacks with just 24, and they have forced just six takeaways. At the salary, I’ll just play Houston. 

Cash – Robinson

GPP – Jones, Lawrence, Shenault, O’Shaughnessy 

Titans at Steelers, O/U of 41.5 (Steelers -1)

Titans

QB – I wish Ryan Tannehill was playing better to use as a cheap flyer but it’s tough to back him at this juncture. He has only thrown 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and he’s just 13th in yards, 13th in attempts, and 34th in deep-ball completion rate. The only thing holding me with Tannehill and considering him is the Steelers have been so bad defensively. They’re facing really important injuries on that side of the ball and are just 22nd in DVOA against the pass, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 12th in completion rate allowed. It’s a dynamite matchup for Tannehill but he’s shown limited ability to exploit good matchups this year. 

RB – I’m not trying to say he’s Dalvin Cook, but D’Onta Foreman is walking into a great spot this week. Cook detonated the Steelers defense last game and they are down to 29th in rushing yards allowed to running backs and they are dead last in yards allowed per attempt. They are the only team allowing five yards per carry and Foreman leads the team in carries since the Derrick Henry injury. He has 55 and Dontrell Hillard has just 25 (with 38 useless Adrian Peterson carries sandwiched in-between) so Foreman has emerged as the clear-cut leader. Foreman also has 13 red-zone carries in that span and has 240 rushing yards. His salary did not come up hardly at all on DraftKings and he’s likely to be my favorite salary-saving back 

WR – Oh look, Julio Jones is on the slate again against a bad defense, which means I can’t wait to play him for eight DraftKings points yet again. It’s a great spot as the Steelers defense has been ripped up by any team with a pulse lately. Tennessee is still missing A.J. Brown and Jones saw six targets on just 45% of the snaps. Considering he missed over a month, that was a positive sign. If he gets through this week with no setback, the snaps should increase and the targets should as well. The metrics don’t look kind to Julio but he’s been injured and not the number one option in the passing game for much of the year. That won’t be the case this week. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played the most snaps last week at 73% but he only saw three targets and I think we have better cheap options on the board. 

TE – The duo of Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser is really just biting into whatever limited ceiling they have. Both of them are under a 10% target share on the season and last week is a perfect example because they both saw targets and scored almost exactly the same DraftKings points. Swaim has an advantage in the red zone and end zone targets but that’s one of the only aspects that separate them a bit. It’s not exactly a situation I’d want to get into. Pittsburgh has only given up two touchdowns, tied for the second-fewest in the league. 

D/ST – I’m not super interested here for Tennessee but they do have 32 sacks on the season. The Pittsburgh offensive line has been horrible through much of the season and they’ve given up the seventh-most sacks on the year. They’ve managed to get up to 14th in total DVOA but the secondary is vulnerable and the Steelers passing game has shown some spark lately. 

Cash – Foreman

GPP – Julio, Hillard, Tannehill

Steelers 

QB – For the first time all season, I’m actually considering Ben Roethlisberger. Aside from the beating they took in Cincinnati, his past three games have been good to great for fantasy, and by all accounts, Big Ben only has a couple of weeks left as the Steelers quarterback. He is certainly not as good as he once was, but he can be as good as he used to be once or twice. In the strong games, he’s thrown for eight touchdowns across those three games and completed at least 63% of his passes. He does have talented skill position players around him as well. Tennessee is just 14th in DVOA against the pass and 15th in yards per attempt allowed. He’s still under $6,000 and he is GPP-only, but his better play of late does not reflect his putrid seasonal data. 

RB – It seems like Najee Harris always wiggles his way into at least 16 DraftKings points and now that he’s under $8,000, I’m interested. He is still pricey but he also touches the ball 20 times seemingly every single week. The Titans have had a fairly strong run defense with sitting eighth in yards per attempt allowed and the fourth-fewest rushing yards. Tennessee is also in the top half of the league in receptions allowed so there isn’t much that stands out on paper past the volume for Harris, who is fourth in carries and second in receptions. 

WR – Diontae Johnson has come up in salary but he could be in for a monster game, as Chase Claypool draws the tougher matchup in Kristian Fulton at corner. That could conceivably change since Janoris Jenkins is questionable but either way, the Tennessee secondary has been vulnerable all season long. Diontae is third in targets, ninth in receptions, ninth in yards, ninth in deep targets, and sixth in points per game. He more than deserves to be this salary. I have a feeling Claypool could see fewer targets after his shenanigans last week and may even see fewer snaps. 

If that happens, Ray-Ray McCloud could be a cheap option with a lot of volatility baked in. He doesn’t play a ton but has a slot rate of 81.2% and that means Elijah Molden is on the other side with an 87.8% slot rate. He’s allowed 12.5 yards per reception and a 70% catch rate so if Pittsburgh passes a lot (third-most attempts in football), he could pay off pretty easily. 

Update – Jenkins is out for the Titans, making Diontae even more appealing.

TE – Pat Freiermuth wasn’t targeted a lot last game, which was a surprise. It was the first game since Week 5 that he didn’t see at least four targets in a game but what isn’t surprising is he found the end zone again. The rookie tight end was real close to scoring twice if Vikings safety Harrison Smith didn’t make a great play for the pass breakup. He’s still third in the league in red-zone targets since Week 6 and has a target share of 15.6% in that span. I would feel more comfortable playing him than a Dalton Schultz for $400 more. 

D/ST – They’re playing horrible football and could be without T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, which would destroy the pass defense. There’s just no way I’m going here after watching them get destroyed in all aspects of the game last time out. 

Update – Watt and Highsmith have no injury designation so they will be ready to roll and Joe Haden is questionable. I still like Julio but it’s a little bit of a worse matchup for him since the pass rush is intact.

Cash – Diontae, Freirmuth

GPP – Big Ben, Harris, McCloud, Claypool 

Cardinals at Lions, O/U of 47 (Cardinals -12)

Cardinals

QB – It’s a rare time when a quarterback can put up 22 DraftKings points without the benefit of any type of touchdowns but Kyler Murray pulled it off Monday night with two interceptions. He missed a month of action and is still the QB11 on the year, which speaks to his upside on every given week. If the Cardinals blow out Detroit, odds are Kyler is going to score 3-4 touchdowns passing and/or rushing. He is first in yards per attempt, 10th in air yards, first in deep completion rate, first in true completion rate, and 11th in touchdown passes. His legs haven’t been used as much through points of this season but he is more than capable. The Lions are 30th in DVOA and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed, so the upside is palpable. 

RB – One of James Conner or Chase Edmonds is due for a big game against the Detroit Lions run defense. They’re 29th in DVOA against the run but we have no idea who’s going to be active here and to what extent. We’ll need to circle back at the end of the week to see if Edmonds has been activated from IR and the status of Conner’s ankle. 

Update – Both players are on pace to play but if Conner is healthy, it’s hard to not want to play him. Edmonds would not likely work into his full role right off the bat and the Cards are 12 point favorites.

WR – It may be hard to not play a lot of A.J. Green with DeAndre Hopkins out for the rest of the regular season. He saw 10 targets last week and he’s only four targets behind the team lead in one fewer game. The target share is 17.3% but now the 20.4% share of Hopkins is out of the offense. Green also has a red-zone share of 22.6% and Detroit has Amani Oruwariye to counter Green, who should be able to counter the 107.6 passer rating give up. 

Christian Kirk is now the target leader and has played 47% of his snaps in the slot, which could drop down a little bit now. Could that put Rondale Moore on the field more? In theory, yes. If Kirk kicks outside more often, Moore could hang in the slot but that’s not for sure at this point. With the game not expected to be competitive to any serious extent, getting too invested in the passing game may not end well. I’d go Green, Kirk, and then Moore. 

TE – A the risk of him going for nearly 30 DraftKings points again just to spite me, Zach Ertz still seems so overpriced to me. He’s only exceeded double-digit DraftKings points once in his Cardinals tenure and it took two touchdowns to help get him there. His target share is 17% with Arizona but that doesn’t account for Hopkins missing three games, Kyler missing time, and Green missing one game. Generally, he’ll settle in lower than that but you’re paying the premium. The only way this changes is if the injury situation for Arizona demands it. 

D/ST – I would fully expect a strong game from Arizona but they are expensive. The Cards sit fourth in total DVOA, seventh in sacks, have a pressure rate over 24%, and fifth in takeaways. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most sacks on the season and they have 18 giveaways, a great mix for Arizona to put up a strong fantasy score. 

Cash – Conner, Kyler, Green

GPP – Kirk, D/ST, Moore, Edmonds

Lions

QB – Jared Goff continues to be a below-average option for fantasy with one game of 20 DraftKings points or more since Week 2. Arizona is fourth in DVOA against the pass, fifth in yards per attempt allowed, and 14th in completion rate. With Goff ranking under 20th in every metric that we value, there’s no reason to chase this. 

RB – As it stands, both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are not practicing yet for this week. That could mean Craig Reynolds could be n line for another game of 13 touches or more against the run defense that ranks 12th in DVOA. He is very cheap and he played 46% of the snaps with Godwin Igwebuike playing around the same amount. He only had eight touches so Reynolds would be the target, pending the health of the other backs. 

Update – It looks like Reynolds is going to be the lead back again but it’s not the most appealing spot ever.

WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown is now one of the best plays from this team as they should be playing from behind a lot and he’s now seen 24 targets over the past two weeks. That is massive and it’s accounted for a 32% target share and he leads in red-zone targets as well. It puts him up against a tough corner in Byron Murphy since both play in the slot but he has still allowed a 59% catch rate and if the share holds up, St. Brown is still too cheap. 

Josh Reynolds should also see an uptick in targets given who is out for the Lions as he’s been second in targets while St. Brown has been taking everything. Marco Wilson should face off against him and Wilson has allowed 11.9 yards per reception with a 136.3 passer rating. With a 13.8 aDOT, he Ould pay off in limited targets. 

TE – It’s not always the best metric to look at because it needs context but the Cardinals have really controlled opposing tight ends this season, sitting in the top-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed. When you add in the fact that the Lions passing game has struggled all season, T.J. Hockenson feels like a luxury at the salary as he has for weeks now. There is virtually no ceiling to be had here even though his metrics look great among tight ends. He’s in the top 10 in receptions, yards, air yards share, targets, and target share. Hockenson has only found the end zone four times and I’m unconvinced that changes this week, even if he’s healthy. 

Update – Hockenson is out for the year, and I’m not playing Brock Wright. 

D/ST – Detroit plays hard every week and Dan Campbell should be commended for getting the effort out of them. However, this defense has little chance against the talented Cardinals offense and I’m not even thinking twice here. 

Cash – St. Brown

GPP – Reynolds

Jets at Dolphins, O/U of 41.5 (Dolphins -9.5)

Jets

QB – We have to understand that every now and again players like Zach Wilson can have a big game without much of a reason. He hit 22 DraftKings points against Philly but that has been wildly different than his other results and Wilson threw another dud last week with just 11.3 DraftKings points. Wilson has missed time but he’s still 34th in yards per attempt, 29th in true completion rate, and he has six passing touchdowns in nine games. Miami is just average in DVOA at 16th but they are seventh in yards per attempt and Wilson is still missing his top two receivers. 

RB – It looks like Michael Carter should be back for this week and provided he’s not going to be limited, he will be appealing at this salary. Miami’s defense has been up and down all year but they have allowed over 1,500 scrimmage yards. The Dolphins are also just 17th in yards allowed per attempt and Wilson targeted running backs nine times last week. That’s a good step for production for everyone and his receivers are still very thin. I expect Carter to be targeted often and his 11.8% target share is 15th in the league. 

Update – Carter is back and is said to be ready to handle a normal workload, making him a strong option at the salary.

WR – I really tend to think we’re almost all the way back to last season when it was #NeverJets because there is no receiver to be trusted. Wilson is playing so poorly he’s submarining everyone around him. Jamison Crowder turned six targets into just 3/19 and that was without Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Crowder does have a 19.7% target share and he does draw Nik Needham in coverage, which has long been a target. Needham has allowed a 67.5% catch rate and 1.56 fantasy points per target. The matchup does make sense but not much else does. 

TE – We can continue to look elsewhere for tight ends than Ryan Griffin, who only saw three targets with the Jets being down two starting receivers. 

D/ST – The Jets can get to the quarterback with 30 sacks on the season but they only have nine turnovers forced (31st in the league) and they are dead last in total DVOA and points allowed. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Carter, Crowder

Dolphins

QB – Unless the situation changes, I like Tua Tagovailoa a lot this week and feel like he’s going to be the run game. His offensive line has been dreadful, factoring into his 7.1 yards per attempt. That’s 19th in the league but as of now, the Dolphins have five backs on either the Covid list or injured reserve. Tua has 33, 31, and 41 attempts in the past three games and the Jets are terrible at any level of defense. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass, 31st in yards per attempt, and allow the highest completion rate in football at 70.6%. Tua got a receiver back in the lineup recently and he may approach 40 attempts regardless of the score if the Dolphins are this limited on running backs. 

RB – It appears that Myles Gaskin will be able to get out of the Covid protocols before the game this week and I am very interested. We’ve seen the Jets get smashed on the ground all season long and the first matchup saw Gaskin score 18.6 DraftKings points. The Dolphins finally got behind him in Week 7 and he’s never been below 15 touches since that point. His offensive line leaves plenty to be desired but the volume does not and the Jets are 26th in yards allowed per attempt and 30th in rushing yards allowed to backs. He’s just too cheap for the potential. If you’re spending up elsewhere, Gaskin and Foreman can make for a very interesting pairing. 

Update – Gaskin has yet to make it out of protocols as of Wednesday, so we’ll see how the next couple of days go. 

Update II – Gaskin is cleared and active, and I love him this week especially if the next player is out.

WR – *sigh* Jaylen Waddle is on the Covid list as of Thursday, so that turnaround is going to be tough for him to play. Assuming he’s out, DeVante Parker could wind up being the stone chalk because Waddle has a 23.6% target share in the offense. Parker would get a lot more of those targets and he has a 21.4% target share himself. If Parker trends towards chalk, Albert Wilson could be a strong pivot because he should take the slot snaps for Waddle (about 48%). Tua tends to focus on the short field and Wilson can rack up receptions quickly with his high completion rate. 

Update – As of Saturday night, Waddle has not been cleared for the game.

TE – As it is with just about every position, it’s a good matchup for Mike Gesicki. They’re in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed and bottom-five in yards allowed to go along with seven touchdowns. Gesicki continues to be a glorified slot receiver with a 56.5% slot rate and he’s still top-six in yards and receptions. He’s third in targets and 16th in yards per route while still sitting second in unrealized air yards. I’m not sure I’d play him outside of a possible stack with Tua, but he’s a solid option. 

Update – I’m MUCH higher on Gesicki in all formats assuming Waddle does not play. 

D/ST – As long as Wilson is the quarterback for New York, I’m interested. I likely wouldn’t want to pay $3,700 for Miami but at the same time, they’ve forced 20 turnovers and have 31 sacks on the season. New York is tied with the Jags for the most giveaways at 25 and the Dolphins are 11th in total DVOA. 

Cash – Parker, Gesicki, Tua, Gaskin

GPP – Wilson, D/ST

Washington at Eagles, O/U of 42.5 (Eagles -6.5)

Washington

QB – Taylor Heinicke couldn’t have played much worse last week with under 10 DraftKings points and even though he was harassed on what was seemingly every dropback, 11-25 for 122 yards was not expected. He’s had some flashes but he’s still just 17th in yards, 22nd in yards per attempt, 18th in true completion rate, and 19th in points per dropback. It’s a very middling portfolio for the metrics and Philly has been solid defending the pass, sitting 14th in yards per attempt. They have allowed the third-worst completion rate at 70.4% but they still are 11th in terms of total yards allowed. The injuries to skill players are adding up as well, making Heinicke a very scary value with questionable upside. 

RB – Washington got down early last week and that hurt Antonio Gibson a good deal, as he only had 10 carries and 12 total touches. That is still a small problem because the coaching staff talks a big game about getting him targets, but they are far from guaranteed. Philly has been average as far as defending the run but they are sixth in yards allowed per attempt. We’ll also need to see if J.D. McKissic makes it back for this game. If he does, there is a danger to Gibson’s meager target share (9.2%). 

WR – Hey, guess what? We don’t know who’s playing here either. Terry McLaurin was limited on Thursday but has to clear the NFL concussion protocol, so there’s no real way to tell if he can play this weekend at this juncture. If he does make it back, he still has to deal with Heinicke and his inaccuracy on top of facing Darius Slay at corner. Slay has just allowed a 53.7% catch rate and 1.30 fantasy points per target, so it’s a tougher spot. Washington could be down to Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter as their primary receivers. That’s not appealing in the least so let’s hope Scary Terry can make it back. We’ll circle back later in the week (shocker). 

TE – The targets were sort of there for Ricky Seals-Jones last week with four but it didn’t work out. He also only played 45% of the snaps so if he practices the whole week without setbacks, I still like him to some extent for this week. I’d assume his snaps will rise and Philly has been lit up by tight ends all season. They are dead last in yards, receptions, and touchdowns allowed so as far as cheap options go, Seals-Jones would be high on the list. Before his injury, RSJ had a 14.6% target share when Logan Thomas was missing so let’s see what practice tells us. 

D/ST – Washington has had issues all year on defense but they’ve been largely related to defending the pass. Philly’s pass game has been suspect, to say the least, and Washington has sacked the quarterback 28 times. They are 28th in total DVOA and 23rd in points allowed, so you’re banking on the Eagles having some offensive struggles. 

Cash – TBD

GPP – TBD

Eagles 

QB – When a team comes out of a bye week, it’s not a great sign that a player isn’t ready to go and it’s reported that Jalen Hurts has a high ankle sprain. Even if he can play, the ceiling would be far lower if he’s limited in his mobility. He’s second in carries and yards along with having the most rushing touchdowns on the season. That’s over 100 points that have come strictly from his legs and the actual quarterback metrics are sketchier. Hurts is only 24th in yards, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in attempts. He needs the rushing potential to want to play at this salary. If he can’t go, Gardner Minshew would be a lock in cash and very appealing in GPP. In his start before the bye, he went 20/25 and scored almost 19 DraftKings points and the Washington defense is 27th in DVOA against the pass. 

RB – It’s amazing how Miles Sanders can produce for fantasy when the Eagles actually give him the ball. He racked up 20 DraftKings points despite not scoring a touchdown but the matchup ratchets up significantly this week. Washington is seventh in yards per attempt allowed and they are now second in yards allowed on the ground to backs. Sanders also hurt his ankle so let’s make sure he’s going to be full-go before we make too many decisions in this backfield. 

WR – I don’t know if I have the stomach to roll Devonta Smith at this salary, because he’s not cheap and the floor is very low. I was sort of hoping Minshew would help him in the last game but he saw just four targets, third on the team. Smith would most likely see William Jackson who sits at 1.90 fantasy points per target. There is some upside but the floor is too low for me I think given some of the options around him. No other receiver in Philly is worth a look. 

TE – Dallas Goedert destroyed the slate the last time we saw him but it’s important to remember he had a different quarterback when he did it. He flashed the upside the metrics suggested and we’ve been talking about lately, which was fun to see. The flip side is he’s now at a salary hat you still need upside and that hasn’t been evident with Hurts has been active. He’s 10th in target share among tight ends and seventh in yards which is due in part to being second in yards per route. He’s not among my highest priorities at the position. 

D/ST – The Eagles seem kind of pricey for just 13 turnovers forced and 21 sacks on the season. They do sit 16th in points allowed and 22nd in total DVOA so the metrics would back up they haven’t played all that well this season. Washington does have the fifth-most turnovers and 10th most sacks allowed so the matchup is solid but the salary is not. 

Cash – Goedert, Quarterback (either one is cash viable)

GPP – Goedert, Smith, D/ST 

Panthers at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -13)

Panthers

QB – I’m running far away from this situation. Cam Newton has looked awful as a passer so far and Matt Ruhle says he and P.J. Walker are going to see work. Buffalo has slipped a little defensively but they are still a top-five unit across all metrics we value. I’m not interested in a split situation at quarterback. It really is that simple. Even if Newton is in, he’s had four turnovers against two touchdowns in the past two weeks and has looked the part of a jobless quarterback at 20/44 passing. 

RB – The Panthers have said they want to run the ball more but they couldn’t stay in the game long enough to give Chuba Hubbard more than 10 in this past game. Buffalo has had major issues defending the run lately so the matchup is awful from the seasonal aspect, but not as much lately. The real issue is how we can expect the Panthers to stay in this game? If they can’t Hubbard isn’t likely to stay that involved as he had zero targets. You could make a small case for Ameer Abdullah since he played 60% of the snaps this past week and had the only four targets out of the backfield, but that feels a little too cute. 

WR – The matchup for D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson is softer without Tre White in the secondary, but it’s still not a great one. Their quarterback could change on any given drive and Buffalo is still one of the better defenses in football. However, the script should be similar to what it was last week and with no CMC in the mix, these two could see 8-10 targets (or more) again this week. Moore likely is going to face Levi Wallace while Anderson squares off with Taron Johnson, both of who have allowed a 1.40 fantasy points per target or lower. Moore has obviously been the superior option through so much of the year. He’s in the top 12 in yards, receptions, air yards share, ninth in route, and fourth in target share. Overall, this is not my favorite offense but you can count on the volume to bail out these two in large-field GPP’s if building the game script. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance for the Panthers. 

D/ST – Unless the Bills are without their quarterback, I’m all the way out on this one. Carolina has gone downhill in a hurry and is missing impact players on this side of the ball. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Moore, Anderson 

Bills 

QB – It appears that Josh Allen will not have an issue with his foot injury and he’s coming off one of the more ridiculous games we’ve seen from a quarterback this year. He threw for 308 yards, ran for 109, and accounted for three scores for over 42 DraftKings points. He may not have that upside in this game because the Carolina offense may not force the ceiling but Allen has been one of the more reliable players in fantasy. He’s seventh in passing yards, fifth in attempts, first in air yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, and first in point per game. He’s also in the top six in all rushing categories and that combination gives him one of the safest floors in the entire league. 

Update – Allen has no injury designation

RB – The Bills didn’t even attempt to run the ball last week against the Buccaneers, which is a smart way to approach things. Since Week 10 when Matt Breida got involved, Devin Singletary has led in attempts at 39 in five games so that’s not super appealing. He also leads in targets at 13 so there’s not much of a question about who has the lead in chances, but the question is why do you need to play a back that’s averaging about 10 opportunities per game? The only way I’m changing my approach is if the foot injury for Allen is somewhat serious and the Bills consider a run-heavy gameplan. 

WR – The Bills likely don’t have to pass as much this week but Emmanuel Sanders is doubtful and that could open up Gabriel Davis to be a viable punt. His 11.7 aDOT is appealing and he and Stefon Diggs should be the boundary receivers. Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson are both still out for the Panthers and their secondary is much worse without them. Diggs is 10th in yards, receptions, touchdowns, and he’s 11th in points per game and should face Stephon Gilmore. That’s not as scary as it used to be so both receivers are in play, while Diggs is cash and Davis is strictly GPP. We loved Cole Beasley last week but the matchup is not the same and neither is the game script, so he’s not going to be a primary target for me. I’d rather play St. Brown for $300 more. 

Update – Corner A.J. Bouye is out and the secondary is getting super thin for Carolina, upping the appeal for Diggs and Davis.

TE – Dawson Knox redeemed himself last week after a nightmare game against the Patriots. He caught seven of nine targets and hauled in a touchdown, which was his eighth of the year in 11 games. Sanders missing time likely bumps just a little bit towards Knox as well and even though he’s 17th in target share, Knox leads tight ends in touchdowns and he’s sixth in points per game. He’s also fourth in red-zone targets and while touchdowns are tough to predict, the red zone work is comforting. The Panthers have been solid against the position but Knox has significant upside at the salary. 

D/ST – I would bet we’ve found the chalk defense on the week. Yes, Buffalo has gotten smacked but opposing run games lately but they still have forced the third-most turnovers and Carolina has the second-most in the league. The Bills are still first in total DVOA and third in points allowed. Against a more accomplished offense, I would be cautious but the Panthers pose little threat. 

Cash – Allen, Diggs

GPP – Knox, Davis, Beasley, D/ST 

Bengals at Broncos, O/U of 44 (Broncos -3)

Bengals

QB – If the pinky finger was bothering Joe Burrow, you couldn’t tell from the statistics. He scored 25.2 DraftKings points and once the coaching let him off the leash to chase points, he paid off in spades. Burrow is eighth in yards, second in yards per attempt, sixth in true completion rate, 11th in points per dropback, and 12th in points per game. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and Burrow is the type of player that can go into Denver and still have a big game. They are only 19th in DVOA against the pass and ninth in yards per attempt, but the quality of receiver and quarterback play can get it done in the altitude. 

RB – Joe Mixon is always on the board as an option and he leads the league in carries now, so the narrative that he’s always hurt doesn’t really fit anymore. Now, the results haven’t been there the past two weeks with a Toal of 112 rushing yards and the most disturbing part is just three targets. If there is a flaw, it’s the fact that Mixon has 33 targets to 26 for Samaje Perine which is completely absurd. Denver is 22nd in yards allowed per carry and average in yards allowed to the backs, so this is just an average matchup. The volume dictates he’s on the board as an option but not exactly my favorite expensive option at this point. 

WR – The choice between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is really tough right now. Higgins has eked out a slim lead in target share at 25% but Chase has the lead in air yards share at 38%, red-zone targets (10-8), and end zone targets (13-10). Higgins should get more of Patrick Surtain and the rookie corner has allowed just a 46.6% catch rate and 11.6 yards per reception. The rest of the Broncos secondary is questionable at this point but Ronald Darby would likely see some of Chase and he’s allowed 13.7 yards per reception. I’d slightly favor Chase but these two are both in play. Tyler Boyd is still generally fighting for whatever’s left after those two and has a target share of around 18%. He’s neither safe nor does he have any tangible ceiling so I usually don’t go after him. 

TE – You can’t rely on C.J. Uzomah to get close to 10 DraftKings points again because his target share is just fourth on the Bengals. He’s barely in the top 20 in yards and receptions while sitting 18th in points per game. There’s too much talent in the Cincy offense for Uzomah to be a target on an 11 game slate. On top of that, Denver has allowed just one touchdown against tight ends so far. 

D/ST – Cincinnati has the third-most sacks on the season with a 25.5% pressure rate to go along with sitting 12th in total DVOA. It’s a bit surprising but Denver has allowed the eighth-most sacks on the season so that is a strong match. The Bengals have forced 17 turnovers so there’s a little upside there and I don’t mind them with the salary. 

Cash – Higgins, Burrow

GPP – Mixon, Chase, D/ST 

Broncos 

QB – The case to play Teddy Bridgewater is very small, and would include the Bengals hanging a lot of points to force Teddy Two gloves to throw more. He’s completely average across every metric we value and is just 20th in points per dropback and 23rd in points per game. Cincinnati is 18th in DVOA so they haven’t been totally stout but they can get to the quarterback and Bridgewater is in the top five in sacks this year. I’m out on Bridgewater and will be excited to see what this offense has under center next season. 

RB – The answer last week to “Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams” was a resounding both. The DraftKings scores were both over 20 points but Gordon held a firm lead in touches at 24-16 even though the snaps were close. What was also noticeable was MG3 had nine red one carries to just two for Williams, so him finding the paint twice was a bit lucky/efficient. With Gordon being cheaper, he’d be the likelier of the two to play for me but it’s still hard to love either now that the salaries have come up. Cincinnati is 12th in yards per carry allowed and fifth in rushing yards allowed to backs. 

WR – Since Jerry Jeudy has come back into the fold in Week 8, so receiver in the offense other than him has more than 22 targets. That’s in six games and a player like Courtland Sutton has just 20. It’s bizarre to see Sutton sign a lucrative extension and then just not be utilized in the offense. Jeudy himself has seen 36 targets but that’s only a 21.4% share. There are just too many mouths to feed with the backs, receivers, and tight ends. Jeudy has run 64% of his routes from the slot and would face Mike Hilton, who has allowed a 71.9% catch rate. He’s about the only one I’m interested in and I’m just at peace with Sutton or Tim Patrick potentially breaking a long play. The volume just isn’t there. 

TE – Another week, another ho-hum return from Noah Fant. That’s been the case for the Broncos passing game all over the place and Fant was only targeted four times. While he is ninth in targets and eighth in target share, there’s not a lot of meat on the bone for Fant in the passing game. He’s only scored three times and has just 9.9 points per game, 12th in the league. You should expect games like last week more often than not so he would not be a priority in any format. 

D/ST – Denver is quietly up to second in points allowed but they are just 21st in DVOA. The Broncos have 30 sacks and nobody has been sacked more than Burrow on the season. Considering they are also tied for the fourth-most turnovers on the year, Denver could go sub-5% but have significant upside for the salary. They have a secondary that can at least hang with the receivers for the Bengals, even if they don’t totally shut them down. 

Cash – Jeudy, Fant 

GPP – Gordon, Williams, D/ST 

Falcons at 49ers, O/U of 46.5 (49ers -8.5)

Falcons

QB – Matt Ryan continued his sub-par fantasy run last week with just 11.9 DraftKings and this offense is not set up for him to put up big numbers. San Francisco is only 21st in DVOA against the pass but Ryan doesn’t have any metrics that support him being worth a play. He’s 11th in attempts, air yards, and yards but has only thrown 17touchdowns which is just 16th. Ryan is 29th in points per dropback and I’m going elsewhere for value. 

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson continued to find the end zone last week which sort of saved his game, but there is a trend emerging that is not great. Over the past four games, Patterson only has 15 total targets and if he’s not adding in passing game work, it’s far more difficult to justify the salary. That target share of 12% has dropped in that time whereas it was over 15% in the first 10 weeks of the season. If Patterson continues this trend, he’s an expensive back that’s going to rely on scoring to get there every week. San Francisco is 11th in yards allowed and 16th in yards per attempt, so the matchup is just average. I think there’s a bit more upside for receiving because the Atlanta defense likely can’t mount a ton of resistance in this spot. Still, Patterson is an average target. 

WR – The only player that I’d be looking at is Russell Gage, who has some slight safety and some ceiling attached, but he’s not my favorite play on the slate. He’s the same price as Cooks from Houston so I’d play Cooks in almost every situation. He’s running in the slot and K’Waun Williams is going to be waiting for him He’s only allowing 9.3 yards per reception and 1.49 fantasy points per target across 35 targets. He has some potential in a trailing game script to be sure, but the price is not the most appealing. No other receiver has shown enough without Ridley to want to play. 

TE – Kyle Pitts is a bit too pricey for me, even if Atlanta can’t stop the opposition and they have to pass a lot. Pitts is inside the top 10 in yards per route, yards, receptions, deep targets, air yards share, and target share but he’s scored just one time. Pitts has only been targeted 10 times in the red zone, 14th among tight ends. That’s not going to work for a tight end priced as the third-highest option on the slate. 

D/ST – Everyone is relatively healthy for the 49ers and I’m not going here at all. They are 30th in DVOA, 28th in points allowed, 32nd in sacks, and have forced just 15 turnovers. 

Cash – None

GPP – Patterson, Pitts, Gage 

49ers 

QB – For once, I’m at least tempted by Jimmy Garoppolo. He needs to throw for 275 and two scores to be happy but that is well within reach, as is even more than that. Atlanta is 29th in DVOA against the pass, 19th in yards per attempt, and 28th in completion rate at 68.6%. If you allow Jimmy G to have a high completion rate, the skill players can have a tremendous amount of YAC and that’s all going to the passing yards for Garoppolo. He’s third in yards per attempt and 12th in true completion rate, so there is a ceiling relative to his salary. 

RB – The matchup is spectacular, especially for a Kyle Shanahan run game. The Falcons are 13th in yards per attempt but they are just average in attempts faced. The 49ers are eighth in attempts so that’s not going to be an issue here. Eli Mitchell has been practicing in a limited fashion and if he’s back in action, he’s a total smash play at $6,200 but we’ll see how the week unfolds. 

Update – Mitchell is out for this game again but I’m still not really willing to go to Jeff Wilson with how he’s been playing.

WR – As long as Deebo Samuel is healthy and Mitchell is back, I’d be more inclined to play him. If Mitchell is out and Samuel is getting 6-8 carries, the salary is really high. Samuel only has seven total targets the past three games and that’s concerning. He’s been used way more out of the backfield which is fine because he’s an elite player, but $8,200 would command both. He’s still sixth in receiving yards, fourth in yards per route, and fourth in yards per reception. However, he’s linked more to the backfield than I think the field has realized right now. 

If Mitchell is out and Samuel is more of the running back this week, Brandon Aiyuk would be a great target. He’s seen 29 targets over the past four weeks and has been what amounts to the alpha in the receiving corps. The next player is the best option in the passing game without Samuel, but we’ll have to wait to see who’s active and who isn’t. 

Update – Deebo is a little too expensive for my blood and I’ll be more willing to play Aiyuk.

TE – George Kittle is on a massive tear these past two weeks with 27 targets, 22 receptions, 332 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s scored 79.7 DraftKings points so needless to say, the salary is up there. However, if Samuel continues to see the usage in the passing game dialed back, Kittle is going to see another 10+ targets against the Falcons defense. That is all we need to know and he’s an elite option this week. 

D/ST – I want to see who’s active here because the 49ers have lost important pieces left and right defensively. They could be a strong pivot off Buffalo, but let’s see how it unfolds. They are eighth in total DVOA with 33 sacks and 16 turnovers forced. 

Cash – Kittle, Aiyuk

GPP – Samuel, Jimmy G

Packers at Ravens, O/U of 43.5 (Packers -7)

Packers

QB – We haven’t played Aaron Rodgers a ton this year but he’s heating up at the right time with three games straight of 29 DraftKings points or more. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions and the Baltimore defense is prone to big plays. They are 30th in yards per attempt and 26th in DVOA against the pass. Rodgers has had some quiet games this year but is seventh in yards per attempt, 10th in yards, and fifth in touchdowns. He’s on the shortlist of players that can score 28 DraftKings or more in any given game and he has the fourth-most red zone attempts to help that upside. 

RB – This has turned into a tough backfield to figure out. AJ Dillon got almost all of the work as far as carries Sunday night with 15 while Aaron Jones had just five. Fortunately, he tacked on three receptions and found the end zone twice but I’m not sure how you can possibly pay for a back that may get under 10 touches. Dillon even had more snaps at 53% to 44% and this would represent a large issue for both backs, at least as far as using them in DFS. Baltimore is still fourth in DVOA against the run and sixth in rushing yards allowed to backs so the matchup generally doesn’t stand out. Unless we get wind of something changing, Dillon is likely the better play because he had five red zone attempts to just one for Jones last week, but the floor is low. 

Update – Jones is without an injury report but the split is not likely going away.

WR – Davante Adams is going to shred this Baltimore secondary and I’m here for it. The only question is him or Cooper Kupp in the last game. Adams is third in receptions, third in yards, second in yards per route, fifth in red-zone targets, and first in target share. With some potential values, it’s easy to get there this week.

If you want exposure but not with Adams, Allen Lazard is interesting. He’s seen 13 targets in the past two games and missed time with an injury. and the aDOT is 11.2 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is at 14.7 for his aDOT with 14 targets so both players are being used to stretch the field. Lazard has a small lead in red-zone and end zone targets at 3-2 of each and Baltimore is now bottom five in yards per attempt allowed. They have no corners left and this passing game is set up to have a field day. 

TE – Both Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara are going to see stray targets in the offense, but neither can be relied upon for anything DFS-related. Over the past month, they each have a target share of 8.3% or lower. 

D/ST – I’m interested regardless because they either get a hobbled star quarterback who relies on moving around to be at his best or they get a backup quarterback. Green Bay is 16th in DVOA but seventh in points allowed to go with 30 sacks and 22 turnovers forced. Baltimore is dead last in sacks allowed on the season which doesn’t seem to get said quite enough. 

Cash – Adams, Rodgers, D/ST, TBD with Dillon or Jones

GPP – Lazard, MVS

Ravens 

QB – We’ll need clarity with Lamar Jackson and his ankle injury. It’s obviously not ideal for him to be hampered because the aspect that gives him the edge for fantasy scoring is that rushing ability. If he can’t go Tyler Huntley could be moldy interesting. In his two starts, he’s rushed for 40 and 45 yards and completed over 71% of his passes. Let’s check back later in the week. Green Bay is just 13th in DVOA against the pass so there would be potential on both fronts for Huntley or Jackson. 

Update – Lamar did not practice once this week and I would lean towards Huntley playing in this game.

RB – Devonta Freeman just keeps humming along with another 18 touches last week and he’s surely the RB1 in the Ravens offense. His salary never seems to change too much and there is volatility baked in, as two of his last five games have been under 10 DraftKings points. However, two have been over 20 so there is a ceiling to be had as well and since they committed to Freeman in Week 9, he has an 11.9% target share as well. Green Bay is just 24th in DVOA against the run and 23rd in yards per carry allowed so there is potential in the matchup. If Baltimore can keep this one close for a while, Freeman shouldn’t get phased out and he could be a super sneaky option. 

WR – It was interesting to see Rashod Bateman jive with Huntley for a lot of last week. Considering they have more reps together, it’s not a big surprise. Assuming they are behind for some of this game, both Bateman and Marquise Brown are in play. Brown gets an interesting matchup in Eric Stokes since he can run with Brown. Hollywood has seen the fourth-most deep targets on the season and he’s in the top 20 in yards and receptions, but he’s not going to be able to run by Stokes. Bateman sees Rasul Douglas, who has only allowed 1.13 fantasy points per target. If Sammy Watkins is out, that would bump Bateman up and we’ll see who the QB is at the end of the week. 

Update – Watkins has no injury designation for the game

TE – Mark Andrews also went ballistic last week and Huntley really leaned on him. The 11 targets were the second-most he’s seen in a game all year and it’s an interesting salary saver instead of Kittle. The game script could wind up favoring the Packers in a big way if Jackson can’t play. It’s also interesting that Andrews is first in deep targets, receptions, yards, and air yards among the position. He’s not exactly priced that way and Andrews is second in points per game as well. I’d want to see exactly who his quarterback is before diving in. 

D/ST – This defense tends to give up big plays and has to face Davante Adams while they’re missing cornerbacks. No thanks. 

Cash – Andrews

GPP – Freeman, Bateman, Huntley, Brown

Seahawks at Rams, O/U of 45.5 (Rams -6.5)

Seahawks

QB – I don’t have much of a reason to get after Russell Wilson on this slate. Perhaps that changes if the Rams are short a bunch of defensive players as they did just allow well over 300 yards to Kyler, but Seattle seems content to maximize some of their talents. Wilson is fifth in yards per attempt and ninth in points per dropback, but only averages 28.7 attempts per game. The good news is this game should force him to throw more because the Rams offense is in a good spot against the Seattle defense. On the season, the Rams are seventh in DVOA against the pass so Russ would be GPP-only for me given how the year has gone for him. 

RB – I was wrong on not being interested in Rashaad Penny last week but I may double down this week. While the line was impressive, two runs were 32 and 47 yards. That was 79 of his 137 yards and while I’m not advocating he gets penalized for breaking long runs, we don’t know if he’ll have the opportunity to be a goal line back. Seattle didn’t attempt a run inside the five-yard line so if he’s not the goal line back, the scoring could plummet this week. He was still splitting work with Alex Collins though Collins was horrible with just 16 yards on seven carries. The matchup swings as well since the Rams are second in DVOA against the run and third in yards per attempt allowed. It’s much tougher for Penny, who has looked like a first-round pick for exactly one game. I’m not convinced I need to play him this week. 

WR – As of now, Tyler Lockett is in protocols but he has not been ruled out. If he is, D.K. Metcalf is likely going to be extremely popular. Lockett has a target share of 25.5% and he leads in the air yards share at 42.3%. If that’s out of the lineup, Metcalf is going to see 12-14 targets, you’d have to think. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge would be in play as well, but he’s battling a foot injury. As far as the matchup goes, the Rams have 25 players currently on the Covid list so literally who knows. The update will come later on in the weekend. I feel bad saying that so much in this article but there’s not much we can do right now. 

TE – I’m not relying on Gerald Everett to find the end zone with any regularity and he saw just two targets last week. He’s no higher than 20th in receptions, yards, targets, or points per game. 

D/ST – Seattle is 26th in total DVOA and has just 21 sacks (third-fewest) along with just 13 turnovers forced. Unless things change for the Rams, I’m not interested but their Covid situation is very much in-flux. 

Cash – TBD

GPP – TBD

Rams 

QB – Matthew Stafford has broken out of his slump with at least 23 DraftKings points in each of the past three weeks, and the salary is still very appealing. Seattle has struggled all year against the pass and rank 28th in DVOA, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in completion rate. For Stafford, he’s statistically been one of the best quarterbacks in the game this season. He’s third in yards, seventh in attempts, fourth in yards per attempt, seventh in points per dropback, and fifth in points per game. At only $7,000 on DK, he’s extremely appealing for a late hammer. 

RB – We could see Darrell Henderson back for this game and if he is full-go, the salary is too cheap. He’s been the horse for LA when he’s been active and in his last game, he racked up another 21 touches. Henderson is 15th in yards and his target share of 10.4% is just enough to keep him involved in the passing game. Seattle is ninth in DVOA against the run and second in yards allowed per attempt, only 0.1 yards behind first place. If he can’t make it back, Sony Michel would be in line for almost every running back touch and he had another 20 carries on Monday night. It didn’t result in a ton of fantasy points at 7.9 but Michel is only a week removed from 27 touches against the Jaguars for 24.9 DraftKings points. Either back would be interesting in the right scenario. 

WR – For the sake of fantasy players all over, put Cooper Kupp in bubble wrap at this point. Odell Beckham is in the protocols, leaving Kupp and Van Jefferson as the main receivers. Kupp is already leading in every metric for receivers that we value and he’s not nearly expensive enough. There’s no matchup to fear and the arrival of Beckham didn’t matter for Kupp as he has a 33% target share since OBJ walked in. If Beckham remains out, Jefferson would take a big bump as well and you can argue to play Adams and Jefferson to try and get the best of both worlds. I may even tinker with Adams and Kupp together in GPP although that is not the easiest build to figure out safely. 

TE – Tyler Higbee appears to be out of Covid protocols so he should be active this week but it’s getting tougher to see where his targets of value are coming from. The receivers are taking so much of the work and Higbee is getting left behind as far as production. The only reason I can’t turn away completely is the red zone work because he’s second in targets despite missing a game. It’s still just translated to three touchdowns but it could be a different way to get access to the passing attack for LA. 

Update – With Beckham out, Higbee would look more appealing. 

D/ST – The Rams always seem to play Seattle tough and they rank sixth in total DVOA with the third-most sacks in the league. The Seahawks have given up the third-most sacks in the league while the Rams have also forced 19 turnovers. They are a fine play, pending who’s available for them. 

Cash – TBD

GPP – TBD

Cash Core

James Robinson, Davante Adams, Mike Gesicki/DeVante Parker (as long as Waddle remains out)

GPP Core

Amari Cooper, Gabriel Davis, Michael Carter, Devonta Freeman

Stacks

Cowboys/Giants – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Gallup – Run Backs – Shepard, Golladay, Saquon

Titans/Steelers – Big Ben, Diontae, Harris, Freiermuth, McCloud, Claypool – Run Backs – Julio, Foreman, Tannehill

Packers/Ravens – Rodgers, Adams, Dillon, Jones, Lazard, MVS – Run Backs – Freeman, Andrews, Bateman, Huntley

Cardinals – Kyler, Kirk, Green, Conner, Ertz

Dolphins – Tua, Gaskin, Gesicki, Wilson, Parker (Waddle if active)

Bills – Allen, Diggs, Davis, Knox

49ers – Kittle, Aiyuk, Samuel

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.